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Speaker 2: A treat on this special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Ed
Speaker 2: Yard Denny for an extended conversation, ed I read your
Speaker 2: note carefully yesterday, folks. I can't say enough about the
Speaker 2: value of subscribing to Yar Denny's Quick Takes. You assessed
Speaker 2: the bond market. Should people that own shares be afraid
Speaker 2: of higher yields?
Speaker 3: I think they should be concerned, But all in all,
Speaker 3: I think bond yields of normalized. I think that's important
Speaker 3: to keep that in mind. They were abnormally low between
Speaker 3: the Great Financial Crisis in the Great Virus Crisis because
Speaker 3: the Fed was manipulating rates, it was rigging the bond
Speaker 3: market with the short term rate, the Federal funds rate
Speaker 3: being down to zero, and then of course quantitative easing,
Speaker 3: and now the bond market has been sort of liberated,
Speaker 3: free to tell us what the supply and demand and
Speaker 3: the credit markets really is, and I think we're back
Speaker 3: to where we were before the Great Financial Crisis, when
Speaker 3: bond yields range between four and five percent. So I
Speaker 3: don't think we should freak out about that. I think
Speaker 3: we should actually welcome it because it's a sign that
Speaker 3: the economy is doing just quite well.
Speaker 2: You think, Pa, there's four people on the planet the
Speaker 2: degree with doc.
Speaker 4: Regard so Ed. I mean, given that backdrop, I mean,
Speaker 4: how do you think this Federal Reserve is going to
Speaker 4: proceed for the remainder of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3: Well, it's interesting, you know, the FATS, they just won't
Speaker 3: listen to me. I don't understand. I understand why I've
Speaker 3: been Back in August of last year, we were saying,
Speaker 3: my collige, Eric Wallstein, and I were saying that the
Speaker 3: economy is resilient, it's strong, it's demonstrated that it could
Speaker 3: withstand a tightening of monetary policy. And again, I think
Speaker 3: the Fed not only tightened the monetary policy when they
Speaker 3: took the Fed Funds rate zero to five and a
Speaker 3: half percent between twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three,
Speaker 3: I think they also normalized interest rates, both the Federal
Speaker 3: Funds rate and the bond deal. They're kind of back
Speaker 3: to normal. But so in August, we thought there was
Speaker 3: no need for the FED to act, but they didn't listen.
Speaker 3: So they did not just twenty five basis points. They
Speaker 3: did fifty basis points in September eighteenth, and we argued
Speaker 3: that that would probably lead to higher bond yields. And
Speaker 3: that's exactly what's happened. We've had the FED funds rate
Speaker 3: down one hundred basis points.
Speaker 2: This is brilliant. Paul I can't say enough about this.
Speaker 2: Overnight on LinkedIn, Paul done a of ubs and he'll
Speaker 2: be with us folks in the coming days. Like doctor
Speaker 2: Yardnni was collegially scathing by to FED in the recent decisions.
Speaker 5: Exactly, so, Ed, I mean, how you let me just
Speaker 5: answer your question.
Speaker 3: The bottom line is I think they're definitely on pause.
Speaker 3: That's the message we're getting from the FED. And I
Speaker 3: think it maybe none and done, or maybe one or
Speaker 3: two and done. But I think the Fed is doesn't
Speaker 3: have to lower interest rates anymore.
Speaker 4: As we just complete two years twenty twenty three, twenty
Speaker 4: twenty four of north of twenty percent returns in s
Speaker 4: and P five hundred indext And how do you think
Speaker 4: about twenty twenty five, stocks, bonds, all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 4: How are you talking to your clients this year?
Speaker 3: Well, I go terms Roaring twenty twenties. Baby yeah, I
Speaker 3: mean so far, so good. Back in twenty nineteen, we
Speaker 3: suggested that the decade ahead, the twenty twenties, could be
Speaker 3: the Roaring twenty twenties. That we've noticed that there's a
Speaker 3: shortage of labor, skilled labor especially, and that there was
Speaker 3: a tremendous plethora of technological innovations that were actually useful,
Speaker 3: that actually work, and are relatively inexpensive to implement, and
Speaker 3: that these technologies would lead to a productivity growth boom
Speaker 3: we've had before. This one seems to be much more
Speaker 3: sustainable and potentially much more significant.
Speaker 2: Edgyard Denny with us folks a special edition of Bloomberg Savannance.
Speaker 2: We're with you till nine o'clock, where am Marie Horden
Speaker 2: and David Gura will join from Washington with the services
Speaker 2: at the National Cathedral for James Earl Carter. Thrilled to
Speaker 2: dann Marie Horden and David Gurrow will give us their
Speaker 2: perspective on that. We are thrilled as well to give
Speaker 2: you ed Yard Denny this morning. I can't say enough
Speaker 2: about in October. I think it was two years ago
Speaker 2: ed Yard Denny and Ed I'm going to give credit
Speaker 2: to the great technician Ralph Enco Poor as well said
Speaker 2: climb on board equities, my friend, you maintain your enthusiasm,
Speaker 2: doctor your Denny. I looked at the lineup of hedge
Speaker 2: fund performance, and everybody hedged last year. Very few people
Speaker 2: were full Yard Denny. Describe full Yard Denny well fully.
Speaker 2: Our Denny right now is stay invested. It's hard for
Speaker 2: me to tell people who've been in cash to jump
Speaker 2: in here because the market isn't cheap. But if you've
Speaker 2: been fully invested, particularly in technology, communication services, industrials, financials,
Speaker 2: which is the sectors we favored, we would actually stay
Speaker 2: with them. I know they're not cheap, but on the
Speaker 2: other hand, their earnings outlook is really quite quite good
Speaker 2: for the year.
Speaker 3: For the current year, we have two hundred and eighty
Speaker 3: five dollars a share for the S and P five hundred.
Speaker 3: That beats all the other strategists on the street. And
Speaker 3: that's consistent with the Roaring twenty twenties idea of a
Speaker 3: product that he led economic boom.
Speaker 4: And it seems like for twenty twenty five, you know,
Speaker 4: given where the FED is ie, probably a little bit,
Speaker 4: you know, maybe a couple of cuts at most. For
Speaker 4: twenty twenty five, it sounds like it's a year where
Speaker 4: earnings really have to push this market higher. Earnings have
Speaker 4: to come through it. Do you have concerns about some
Speaker 4: of the earnings estments out there for this market?
Speaker 3: Well, look, not only does the Fed not listen to me,
Speaker 3: but the market doesn't listen to me. I would love
Speaker 3: to have a nice, civilized, gradual bull market from here
Speaker 3: that's driven just by earnings and not valuations. Valuations are
Speaker 3: not cheap. The buffet ratio is at an all time
Speaker 3: record high. The forward pe is around twenty two. Back
Speaker 3: right before the tech wreck of two thousand, it was
Speaker 3: twenty five, so we're not far from that. I mean,
Speaker 3: information technology and communication services account for a hopping forty
Speaker 3: of the S and P five hundred, and we know
Speaker 3: the thirty percent of the S and P five hundred
Speaker 3: is the magnificent seven. Look, I don't think these stocks
Speaker 3: are going to Magnificent seven are going to go away.
Speaker 3: I think they're here to stay. I think they're going
Speaker 3: to continue to account for a high valuation multiple. I
Speaker 3: think they're going to continue to perform. But I'm also
Speaker 3: accounting on a SMP four hundred and ninety three to
Speaker 3: do well. So year in target is seven thousand on
Speaker 3: the s and P five hundred, which I think can
Speaker 3: be driven mostly up by earnings.
Speaker 2: Tell us about the linkashire of nominal GDP into revenue,
Speaker 2: which supports your earnings, call the margin called the development
Speaker 2: of free cash flow. Do we have a buoyancy of
Speaker 2: five percent nominal GDP sustained?
Speaker 3: I think so. I think again, consistent with the roaring
Speaker 3: twenty twenties scenario, I think the productivity, which is currently
Speaker 3: quadrupled from zero point five percent at an annual rate
Speaker 3: on a five year trailing basis. It was zero point
Speaker 3: five percent back at the end of twenty fifteen, and
Speaker 3: now we're at two percent, so we've already seen a
Speaker 3: significant productivity growth boom. But two percent is kind of
Speaker 3: average for the historical average. So what we're counting on
Speaker 3: is productivity to do a bit better than that, maybe three,
Speaker 3: three and a half even four percent, which to some
Speaker 3: people might sound delusional, but if you look at previous
Speaker 3: productivity growth booms, that's what we get to and we
Speaker 3: think we're going to get to that handily by the
Speaker 3: end of the decade because of the technologies that are
Speaker 3: available out there. So yeah, I think three percent growth
Speaker 3: is kind of what we're at right now, maybe a
Speaker 3: little less than that. On a year over your basis,
Speaker 3: three and a half to four percent real GDP is possible.
Speaker 3: Add two percent inflation and you get five to six percent.
Speaker 2: I can't emphasize enough. Paul how alone, Yard Denny is
Speaker 2: on this. There's some bulls out there. John Stolfis, I'm alone,
Speaker 2: but I don't feel lonely. Don't feel lonely. But the
Speaker 2: idea that we're going to sustain three percent real GDP,
Speaker 2: how many guests.
Speaker 4: Are telling it's pretty loan call exactly. Hey, Ed, what
Speaker 4: are you suggesting folks doing a fixed and can market
Speaker 4: Because a lot of folks feel pretty comfortable at four
Speaker 4: point twenty five percent into your treasury. Do they need
Speaker 4: to take credit risk?
Speaker 3: They don't really need to take credit risk, and I
Speaker 3: welcome that. I think that's again normalization. We should have
Speaker 3: an economy where if investors don't want to take risk,
Speaker 3: they shouldn't be punished with zero to two percent yields
Speaker 3: on their money market funds. I think they should be
Speaker 3: getting a reasonable return, and four four and a half
Speaker 3: percent is certainly a reasonable return on a two year
Speaker 3: On the other hand, people who want to lock it
Speaker 3: in can certainly go for the four and a half
Speaker 3: and higher percents that are available in the capital markets,
Speaker 3: so you don't have to take risk, but there's greater
Speaker 3: reward obviously if you're willing to go extend into the
Speaker 3: bond market, going to the corporates, maybe even into the
Speaker 3: high yields.
Speaker 2: Edgar Denny, thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate it.
Speaker 2: This morning, Edward Jardanney there with a call of seven
Speaker 2: thousand XPX.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 2: This was the first name I asked for on James
Speaker 2: Earl Carter. If you come out of Oberlin, you get
Speaker 2: parchment from Oxford is a Rhodes scholar.
Speaker 6: The first thing you do is sit in the mailroom
Speaker 6: in the bottom of the Pentagon right and open mail.
Speaker 6: Richard Os did this for Jimmy Carter in nineteen seventy nine.
Speaker 6: What was it like, Ambassador has to be a young
Speaker 6: buck at the Department of Defense? Is Jimmy Carter turned
Speaker 6: Washington upside down?
Speaker 7: Like? On one hand, Tom, it was an unbelievable opportunity.
Speaker 7: I had just finished working on my doctorate where I
Speaker 7: was writing about what was called East of Suez, what
Speaker 7: we would call the Persian Gulf and the like, And
Speaker 7: in seventy nine the two biggest crises happened to be
Speaker 7: in Iran and Afghanistan. So there I was in my
Speaker 7: late twenties and suddenly I was getting invited to meetings
Speaker 7: with the Secretary of Defense and others. It was crazy,
Speaker 7: but I also learned the limits of my role. At
Speaker 7: one point, I was pressing on the tenant colonel to
Speaker 7: allow me and some other civilians in on the details
Speaker 7: of the contingency planning for what we might do in
Speaker 7: that part of the world. And he sat me down
Speaker 7: and he said, son, you're here for what another year
Speaker 7: or two. I'm here for my whole career. You're what
Speaker 7: we call Christmas health. No way let you see these plans.
Speaker 2: Was the president Carter her Christmas help? EJ. Dione in
Speaker 2: the Post this morning with an essay on a one
Speaker 2: term president. When was it the hostage crisis, which you
Speaker 2: lived directly it ended the presidency? Or was it more
Speaker 2: than that to that landslide Reagan victory.
Speaker 7: I think it was more than that. The Carter himself
Speaker 7: thought if he had maybe ordered one more helicopter to
Speaker 7: Desert one and we had rescued the hostages, he might
Speaker 7: well have been re elected. Well, it's one of the
Speaker 7: many things will we'll never know, But I think it
Speaker 7: was more than that. Carter was not a good communicator.
Speaker 7: There was a little bit of an eat your vegetables
Speaker 7: quality to his presidency. He was telling us, maybe at
Speaker 7: times Tom what we needed to hear. But we met,
Speaker 7: but we certainly didn't want it here, whether it was
Speaker 7: about the energy crisis and over. But the actual accomplishments
Speaker 7: of the administration were many. But also though probably did
Speaker 7: him in was high double digit inflation. You really can
Speaker 7: had survived that, you know, politically, but that's said. He
Speaker 7: accomplished more in one term than most presidents doing too.
Speaker 4: Richard, given the hindsight that we do now have the
Speaker 4: perspective that we do now have. From your perspective, what
Speaker 4: do you think the Carter legacy is.
Speaker 7: I think it's pretty impressive. I mean, if you think
Speaker 7: about it. And I'll focus on foreign policy. It was
Speaker 7: an interesting mixture of idealism and realism. He put human
Speaker 7: rights squarely on the foreign policy agenda, something that Reagan
Speaker 7: obviously continued. But he also negotiated arts controlled agreements with
Speaker 7: Soviet Union. He normalized relations with communist China. He was
Speaker 7: a realist about what the United States had accept in
Speaker 7: terms of the nationalism and rights of others. So he
Speaker 7: returned the Panama Canal, by the way, on terms that
Speaker 7: have allowed us to use it ever ever since. He
Speaker 7: wasn't the pacifist, but he was a great believer in peace.
Speaker 7: He negotiated these David Agreements, the Egypt Egyptian Peace Treaty.
Speaker 7: So I think I'll be seen as a president an
Speaker 7: awful lot done in four years.
Speaker 2: Ambassadors, when you were at the Council on Foreign Relations,
Speaker 2: let me make clear with Centerview partners now, and I'm
Speaker 2: going to say emeritis at Council in Foreign Relations is
Speaker 2: he built the modern institution. You had the advantage of
Speaker 2: Shannon O'Neill and others with terrific Latin coverage. Does President
Speaker 2: Trump want to move us back to hey Buno Vanilla
Speaker 2: Treaty of nineteen oh three with Panama? I mean, I
Speaker 2: get Greenlands joke. Panama is not a joke after September seventh,
Speaker 2: nineteen seventy seven. Does he simply want to move us
Speaker 2: back to a treaty of nineteen oh three?
Speaker 7: Tom, I don't take this as a joke. And I'm
Speaker 7: not sure what his motives are who spoke to him,
Speaker 7: because these issues were not raised during the campaign. But
Speaker 7: I think it's unfortunate in terms of the hemisphere. I
Speaker 7: also think it communicat it's the larger point that major
Speaker 7: powers have the right to do what they want in
Speaker 7: their own neighborhoods, which is music to the years of
Speaker 7: Russia in Ukraine and China dealing with the South China
Speaker 7: Sea and Taiwan. So again, if we have serious concerns
Speaker 7: about Mexico or Canada or the Canal, there's something called diplomacy,
Speaker 7: and use your diplomats and raise these issues. But don't
Speaker 7: walk around the region as though you're entitled, because again
Speaker 7: that set and not only puts everybody in the region
Speaker 7: and alienates them, but it also sends a terrible message
Speaker 7: again to Russia and China others that this is now
Speaker 7: an acceptable way of doing business.
Speaker 4: Richard, In terms of foreign relations, what do you expect
Speaker 4: the first one hundred days of this incoming Trump administration?
Speaker 4: Where do you think the focus will be.
Speaker 7: I think it's got to be on Ukraine as much
Speaker 7: as anything. And then secondly, what I'm hoping it is,
Speaker 7: and I just wrote a long piece on it, is Iran.
Speaker 7: And in terms of Ukraine, it's got to be coming
Speaker 7: to a real meeting of the minds with mister Zelenski
Speaker 7: and then presenting essentially an approach to Putin, putting pressure
Speaker 7: on Putin to accept the peace fire, the cease fire,
Speaker 7: and then with Iran, we inherit a situation where Iron's
Speaker 7: on its heels. And what I've been advocating for is
Speaker 7: the United States should offer a grand bargain to Iran.
Speaker 7: Get out of the business of military support for proxies,
Speaker 7: get out of the nuclear weapons business, and we'll ease
Speaker 7: sanctioned so this regime of yours can survive. And that's
Speaker 7: a big approach. But I hope we take it.
Speaker 2: Investator US, thank you so much for perspective on Jimmy Carter.
Speaker 2: Richard has of course a cent of your partners and
Speaker 2: always associated with the Council on Foreign Relations.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2: In my ute. Sat. Gabriel Mountains north of La were
Speaker 2: basically invisible in the pollution like Mexico City of La.
Speaker 2: And one of the miracles of this nation, including the
Speaker 2: work of President Carter, was crystal clear St. Gabriel Mountains.
Speaker 2: This is up buttressed with Elta Dina and this has
Speaker 2: been one of the two major fires that we've seen
Speaker 2: the last couple days. And if you migrate from Elta
Speaker 2: Dina southwest across Lake Avenue beneath Lincoln Avenue, you're run
Speaker 2: into Pasadena and Paul. This is where Ohio State wins
Speaker 2: every year in the Rose Bowl. Seems like they win,
Speaker 2: you know, I mean, that's the way it is. It's
Speaker 2: four and a half miles a short distance to the
Speaker 2: Rose Bowl from this horrific fire. We would speak to
Speaker 2: James Glassman of JP Morgan, now retired in his glory,
Speaker 2: about this job economy. He is definitive with his work
Speaker 2: at North at Western, but we must speak to him
Speaker 2: about what he's witnessed the last couple of days. Jim Glassman,
Speaker 2: where you are a distance from the Altadena fires, do
Speaker 2: you have smoke damage?
Speaker 5: Yeah, you don't want to look at the air quality index,
Speaker 5: which is normally good is thirty to fifty. It was
Speaker 5: three hundred and twenty five yesterday. They call it unhealthy,
Speaker 5: and it's very it's very thick. It reminds me, actually,
Speaker 5: what you were saying reminds me I lived here when
Speaker 5: I was in first grade long ago, and it looks
Speaker 5: just like I remember. You couldn't see them.
Speaker 2: Out, Yeah, yeah, absolutely couldn't see that, Jim Glassman. Just
Speaker 2: one more question on this. Do you have a sense
Speaker 2: within the Glassman zeitgeist of Los Angeles that it's all
Speaker 2: clear this morning or are people still stealed for more
Speaker 2: winds and fire.
Speaker 5: I think the winds seem to have settled down, but
Speaker 5: the fire is going to take some time to get
Speaker 5: a grip. When I looked at the review of all
Speaker 5: the different fires, they said that none of it was
Speaker 5: under control. Really, we've been kind of looking to see
Speaker 5: when that's going to happen. But it's pretty it's going
Speaker 5: to take a while. It's pretty devastating, and you know,
Speaker 5: normally these stories are kind of remote to all of us.
Speaker 5: We look, we know there's an issue going on somewhere,
Speaker 5: and we calculate what is this going to do to
Speaker 5: the economy. This is a real personal thing for me
Speaker 5: because people had this. It's a I've got people living
Speaker 5: in my house because they had to vacate from Brentwood
Speaker 5: and Palisades. Uh, you know, they know half the you know,
Speaker 5: big large community been disrupted, no home, nothing, nothing to
Speaker 5: live in.
Speaker 2: Doctors a little while to turn to the economy, and
Speaker 2: with your brilliant work, particularly on teenage unemployment years ago,
Speaker 2: are we a fully employed America?
Speaker 5: I think we could be more fully employed. I think
Speaker 5: we were prior to the pandemic, and then we kind
Speaker 5: of got back there. It's it's loosening up a little bit.
Speaker 5: But I think the problem really the labor market. It's
Speaker 5: not so much we are by the standard metrics, we're
Speaker 5: fully employed. But the problem really in America is that
Speaker 5: the share of income that goes to the various things
Speaker 5: that we use to produce GDB workers have been getting
Speaker 5: a smaller share. And this has been going on since
Speaker 5: the late nineteen nineties. And I think if you keep
Speaker 5: I think if you keep an eye on the evolution
Speaker 5: of what's going on in the labor market, the politics
Speaker 5: makes a little more sense. The disruption that's going on
Speaker 5: in the labor market has been really stunning. And you know,
Speaker 5: that's kind of to me what this shrinking share of
Speaker 5: income going to workers has meant. And it's got massive
Speaker 5: implications for all kinds of thing news. And by the way,
Speaker 5: you know, we grew up in school. I grew up
Speaker 5: learning that, oh, keep your eye on are we fully
Speaker 5: employed or not? And that's going to tell you whether
Speaker 5: it's inflation danger. What we're learning in this millennium, the
Speaker 5: last point five years, we're learning that that story doesn't
Speaker 5: really make sense. A tight labor market is not really
Speaker 5: the danger for inflation. And I think the FED people
Speaker 5: have been slowly abandoning that view, as you hear from J.
Speaker 4: Powell, and that's kind of where I want to go.
Speaker 4: Jim just kind of the concern about inflation here is this,
Speaker 4: are we in a new normal here where maybe that
Speaker 4: two percent number that the Fed once isn't really where
Speaker 4: we need to be.
Speaker 5: Well, you know, I've heard Janet Yellen once say, you
Speaker 5: know what if we if we could do it all
Speaker 5: over again, maybe we would have picked a different target.
Speaker 5: Because but I think I think the problem is once
Speaker 5: you decide all the central banks around the world started
Speaker 5: with Bank in New Zealand, when once I embrace the
Speaker 5: idea that they should have as explicit target two percent,
Speaker 5: the market bought it, and it's reflected in inflation expectations,
Speaker 5: and it's really been anchory. It's an important anchor for
Speaker 5: the bond market. I think I don't hear anymore people
Speaker 5: worrying about what's the long run strategy of the central bank.
Speaker 5: That we used to think about that all the time,
Speaker 5: the politics of the central bank, of the monetary policy.
Speaker 5: And I think the I think the advantage of picking
Speaker 5: some number, whatever it is, you you could we can
Speaker 5: quarrel about whether too is too low. But I think
Speaker 5: once you do it, it's it's unwise to changing the.
Speaker 2: Rules of Jim Glastan, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 2: Too short an interview on the economy at hand. Thank
Speaker 2: you for the perspective on your rose bowl in Southern
Speaker 2: California and Los Angeles as well.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2: Good daily look at the front of pages around the
Speaker 2: world that Lisa Matteo hour. Lisa, you start with something
Speaker 2: many Americans are living right now.
Speaker 8: Yeah, we've been talking about the wildfires. Now Airbnb they're
Speaker 8: saying that they're going to be offering free temporary housing
Speaker 8: to those affected. So yeah, we've heard about it before.
Speaker 8: They do it through a group two one one LA.
Speaker 8: It's a nonprofit in Los Angeles. But airbnb dot org
Speaker 8: they've been providing these free temporary housing. They did it
Speaker 8: for the Spain floods back in October twenty twenty four,
Speaker 8: Southern California wildfire in September of last year, and also
Speaker 8: those affected by the hurricanes. So a lot of hosts
Speaker 8: open up their home for a discount, and then this
Speaker 8: this website is a place where people can donate, so
Speaker 8: then that covers the rest of the costs. So that
Speaker 8: offers these people, yeah, some housing.
Speaker 2: It so huge deal in La now and many people
Speaker 2: moving south to San Diego. Their reach is huge here
Speaker 2: even with the Rob Carolyn saying the storm moves to
Speaker 2: the south.
Speaker 8: What else does you have at sure this was a
Speaker 8: Bloomberg survey. We've been talking so much about how AI
Speaker 8: could take away jobs, so now this survey from Bloomberg Intelligence,
Speaker 8: it kind of puts it into a perspective. It says
Speaker 8: global banks they could cut as many as two hundred
Speaker 8: thousand jobs the next three to five years. That's about
Speaker 8: three percent of the industry's global workforce. Back office, middle
Speaker 8: office operations. Those are the ones most at risk. But
Speaker 8: he could also mean improved earnings, which they also point
Speaker 8: out because banks could add as much as one hundred
Speaker 8: and eighty billion dollars to their combined by twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 2: Right from the get go, they've talked about margin expansion.
Speaker 2: I'm in the camp, Paul, I'm going to wait until
Speaker 2: I see it right.
Speaker 4: But this was a nice survey Bloomberg Intelligence senior bank's
Speaker 4: analyst Thomas Netzel over in London. He did the survey
Speaker 4: of a lot of big financial institutions over there, got
Speaker 4: some good feedback, so again putting some numbers on the.
Speaker 8: Dish, and they like City Group already letting staffers use
Speaker 8: jen Ai to like scan through documents. At Klarna, they
Speaker 8: have aissystems doing the work of seven hundred full time
Speaker 8: customer service.
Speaker 4: Was a lowly bank investment banker. One of my jobs.
Speaker 4: We spent many nights at the printer, literally at the
Speaker 4: printer in Lower Manhattan, proofreading prospectuses, sitting there till like
Speaker 4: four in the morning. Proofreading perspectuses. Yea, God, you gotta
Speaker 4: automate that somehow, yea.
Speaker 2: No, serf the recess when Paul was calling up doing
Speaker 2: some you know, trades out front of the transition and
Speaker 2: actually that was an issue, yeah, you know, on the
Speaker 2: insider trading. Yeah, way back this next one, Lisa, I'm sorry,
Speaker 2: this got a huge splash by Bloomberg.
Speaker 8: It did, Okay, So this is when you kind of
Speaker 8: tie it in. So what do Wall Street workers do
Speaker 8: when they're out of work, because they've been showing there's
Speaker 8: a thirty percent reduction in equity analysts at major banks.
Speaker 8: So what some of them are doing who can't find work,
Speaker 8: They're turning to social media and content creation, so they're
Speaker 8: becoming basically, I guess influencers are giving out advice on
Speaker 8: the finance industry. So one analyst sells Bloomberg, you know,
Speaker 8: it's not easy, Like he's been out of work since
Speaker 8: about two of that's twenty twenty two. He's thirty seven,
Speaker 8: and this is all he's been able to find. So
Speaker 8: he's kind of growing it. His his five figure income
Speaker 8: in about a third of what he used to earn.
Speaker 8: But he says he's trying. But it really gets into
Speaker 8: how equity research is being squeezed down.
Speaker 2: To the heart of it quickly here because they want
Speaker 2: to get to the other story here on Apple, there
Speaker 2: are fifty six and four there are sixty analysts on
Speaker 2: the an R screen. Do I need sixty opinions?
Speaker 5: I'm guessing.
Speaker 4: I'm guessing eight to ten are getting paid for their
Speaker 4: Apple research. That's it. That's why we create a Bloomberg
Speaker 4: intelligence fifteen years ago, because the Street was downsizing its
Speaker 4: research commitment and so we just are Bloomberg decided let's
Speaker 4: fill that void.
Speaker 2: Well, thanks to Krid Moffatt for being with us. Is
Speaker 2: so on Apple yesterday. One more, Lisa, have you.
Speaker 8: Ever been to Vail, Colorado? They do Okay, have you
Speaker 8: seen the homes, because this is about okay, pricey, pricey homes.
Speaker 8: Wall Street Journal says more than fifteen thousand square foot
Speaker 8: home could set a price record. It's going to go
Speaker 8: on the market for seventy eight million dollars. Eleven bedrooms,
Speaker 8: indoor pool, two heated outdoor pools, two hot dubs, two kitchens,
Speaker 8: two elevators, a movie theater, and a gym that looks fantastic.
Speaker 2: Do they pay taxes to support the kids driving three hours?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 5: To flip stakes, Yeah exactly.
Speaker 4: It's again the real estate out there. Like most resort
Speaker 4: areas in the world, it's pricing out their employees. So
Speaker 4: what Vail Resorts is doing is that they have to
Speaker 4: build like dorms for their employees. Anyway, it's crazy out.
Speaker 2: There, Lisa, thank you so much to subdued newspapers. Today
Speaker 2: here on this day of the funeral of James Earl Carter,
Speaker 2: this is.
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