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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: A treat on this special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Ed

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Speaker 2: Yard Denny for an extended conversation, ed I read your

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Speaker 2: note carefully yesterday, folks. I can't say enough about the

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Speaker 2: value of subscribing to Yar Denny's Quick Takes. You assessed

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Speaker 2: the bond market. Should people that own shares be afraid

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Speaker 2: of higher yields?

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Speaker 3: I think they should be concerned, But all in all,

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Speaker 3: I think bond yields of normalized. I think that's important

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Speaker 3: to keep that in mind. They were abnormally low between

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Speaker 3: the Great Financial Crisis in the Great Virus Crisis because

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Speaker 3: the Fed was manipulating rates, it was rigging the bond

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Speaker 3: market with the short term rate, the Federal funds rate

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Speaker 3: being down to zero, and then of course quantitative easing,

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Speaker 3: and now the bond market has been sort of liberated,

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Speaker 3: free to tell us what the supply and demand and

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Speaker 3: the credit markets really is, and I think we're back

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Speaker 3: to where we were before the Great Financial Crisis, when

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Speaker 3: bond yields range between four and five percent. So I

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Speaker 3: don't think we should freak out about that. I think

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Speaker 3: we should actually welcome it because it's a sign that

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Speaker 3: the economy is doing just quite well.

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Speaker 2: You think, Pa, there's four people on the planet the

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Speaker 2: degree with doc.

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Speaker 4: Regard so Ed. I mean, given that backdrop, I mean,

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Speaker 4: how do you think this Federal Reserve is going to

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Speaker 4: proceed for the remainder of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's interesting, you know, the FATS, they just won't

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Speaker 3: listen to me. I don't understand. I understand why I've

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Speaker 3: been Back in August of last year, we were saying,

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Speaker 3: my collige, Eric Wallstein, and I were saying that the

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Speaker 3: economy is resilient, it's strong, it's demonstrated that it could

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Speaker 3: withstand a tightening of monetary policy. And again, I think

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Speaker 3: the Fed not only tightened the monetary policy when they

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Speaker 3: took the Fed Funds rate zero to five and a

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Speaker 3: half percent between twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 3: I think they also normalized interest rates, both the Federal

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Speaker 3: Funds rate and the bond deal. They're kind of back

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Speaker 3: to normal. But so in August, we thought there was

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Speaker 3: no need for the FED to act, but they didn't listen.

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Speaker 3: So they did not just twenty five basis points. They

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Speaker 3: did fifty basis points in September eighteenth, and we argued

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Speaker 3: that that would probably lead to higher bond yields. And

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Speaker 3: that's exactly what's happened. We've had the FED funds rate

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Speaker 3: down one hundred basis points.

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Speaker 2: This is brilliant. Paul I can't say enough about this.

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Speaker 2: Overnight on LinkedIn, Paul done a of ubs and he'll

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Speaker 2: be with us folks in the coming days. Like doctor

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Speaker 2: Yardnni was collegially scathing by to FED in the recent decisions.

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Speaker 5: Exactly, so, Ed, I mean, how you let me just

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Speaker 5: answer your question.

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Speaker 3: The bottom line is I think they're definitely on pause.

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Speaker 3: That's the message we're getting from the FED. And I

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Speaker 3: think it maybe none and done, or maybe one or

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Speaker 3: two and done. But I think the Fed is doesn't

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Speaker 3: have to lower interest rates anymore.

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Speaker 4: As we just complete two years twenty twenty three, twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty four of north of twenty percent returns in s

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Speaker 4: and P five hundred indext And how do you think

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Speaker 4: about twenty twenty five, stocks, bonds, all that kind of stuff.

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Speaker 4: How are you talking to your clients this year?

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Speaker 3: Well, I go terms Roaring twenty twenties. Baby yeah, I

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Speaker 3: mean so far, so good. Back in twenty nineteen, we

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Speaker 3: suggested that the decade ahead, the twenty twenties, could be

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Speaker 3: the Roaring twenty twenties. That we've noticed that there's a

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Speaker 3: shortage of labor, skilled labor especially, and that there was

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Speaker 3: a tremendous plethora of technological innovations that were actually useful,

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Speaker 3: that actually work, and are relatively inexpensive to implement, and

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Speaker 3: that these technologies would lead to a productivity growth boom

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Speaker 3: we've had before. This one seems to be much more

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Speaker 3: sustainable and potentially much more significant.

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Speaker 2: Edgyard Denny with us folks a special edition of Bloomberg Savannance.

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Speaker 2: We're with you till nine o'clock, where am Marie Horden

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Speaker 2: and David Gura will join from Washington with the services

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Speaker 2: at the National Cathedral for James Earl Carter. Thrilled to

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Speaker 2: dann Marie Horden and David Gurrow will give us their

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Speaker 2: perspective on that. We are thrilled as well to give

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Speaker 2: you ed Yard Denny this morning. I can't say enough

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Speaker 2: about in October. I think it was two years ago

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Speaker 2: ed Yard Denny and Ed I'm going to give credit

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Speaker 2: to the great technician Ralph Enco Poor as well said

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Speaker 2: climb on board equities, my friend, you maintain your enthusiasm,

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Speaker 2: doctor your Denny. I looked at the lineup of hedge

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Speaker 2: fund performance, and everybody hedged last year. Very few people

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Speaker 2: were full Yard Denny. Describe full Yard Denny well fully.

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Speaker 2: Our Denny right now is stay invested. It's hard for

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Speaker 2: me to tell people who've been in cash to jump

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Speaker 2: in here because the market isn't cheap. But if you've

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Speaker 2: been fully invested, particularly in technology, communication services, industrials, financials,

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Speaker 2: which is the sectors we favored, we would actually stay

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Speaker 2: with them. I know they're not cheap, but on the

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Speaker 2: other hand, their earnings outlook is really quite quite good

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Speaker 2: for the year.

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Speaker 3: For the current year, we have two hundred and eighty

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Speaker 3: five dollars a share for the S and P five hundred.

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Speaker 3: That beats all the other strategists on the street. And

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Speaker 3: that's consistent with the Roaring twenty twenties idea of a

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Speaker 3: product that he led economic boom.

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Speaker 4: And it seems like for twenty twenty five, you know,

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Speaker 4: given where the FED is ie, probably a little bit,

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Speaker 4: you know, maybe a couple of cuts at most. For

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty five, it sounds like it's a year where

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Speaker 4: earnings really have to push this market higher. Earnings have

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Speaker 4: to come through it. Do you have concerns about some

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Speaker 4: of the earnings estments out there for this market?

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Speaker 3: Well, look, not only does the Fed not listen to me,

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Speaker 3: but the market doesn't listen to me. I would love

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Speaker 3: to have a nice, civilized, gradual bull market from here

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Speaker 3: that's driven just by earnings and not valuations. Valuations are

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Speaker 3: not cheap. The buffet ratio is at an all time

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Speaker 3: record high. The forward pe is around twenty two. Back

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Speaker 3: right before the tech wreck of two thousand, it was

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Speaker 3: twenty five, so we're not far from that. I mean,

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Speaker 3: information technology and communication services account for a hopping forty

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Speaker 3: of the S and P five hundred, and we know

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Speaker 3: the thirty percent of the S and P five hundred

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Speaker 3: is the magnificent seven. Look, I don't think these stocks

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Speaker 3: are going to Magnificent seven are going to go away.

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Speaker 3: I think they're here to stay. I think they're going

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Speaker 3: to continue to account for a high valuation multiple. I

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Speaker 3: think they're going to continue to perform. But I'm also

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Speaker 3: accounting on a SMP four hundred and ninety three to

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Speaker 3: do well. So year in target is seven thousand on

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Speaker 3: the s and P five hundred, which I think can

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Speaker 3: be driven mostly up by earnings.

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Speaker 2: Tell us about the linkashire of nominal GDP into revenue,

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Speaker 2: which supports your earnings, call the margin called the development

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Speaker 2: of free cash flow. Do we have a buoyancy of

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Speaker 2: five percent nominal GDP sustained?

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Speaker 3: I think so. I think again, consistent with the roaring

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Speaker 3: twenty twenties scenario, I think the productivity, which is currently

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Speaker 3: quadrupled from zero point five percent at an annual rate

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Speaker 3: on a five year trailing basis. It was zero point

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Speaker 3: five percent back at the end of twenty fifteen, and

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Speaker 3: now we're at two percent, so we've already seen a

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Speaker 3: significant productivity growth boom. But two percent is kind of

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Speaker 3: average for the historical average. So what we're counting on

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Speaker 3: is productivity to do a bit better than that, maybe three,

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Speaker 3: three and a half even four percent, which to some

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Speaker 3: people might sound delusional, but if you look at previous

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Speaker 3: productivity growth booms, that's what we get to and we

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Speaker 3: think we're going to get to that handily by the

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Speaker 3: end of the decade because of the technologies that are

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Speaker 3: available out there. So yeah, I think three percent growth

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Speaker 3: is kind of what we're at right now, maybe a

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Speaker 3: little less than that. On a year over your basis,

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Speaker 3: three and a half to four percent real GDP is possible.

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Speaker 3: Add two percent inflation and you get five to six percent.

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Speaker 2: I can't emphasize enough. Paul how alone, Yard Denny is

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Speaker 2: on this. There's some bulls out there. John Stolfis, I'm alone,

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Speaker 2: but I don't feel lonely. Don't feel lonely. But the

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Speaker 2: idea that we're going to sustain three percent real GDP,

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Speaker 2: how many guests.

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Speaker 4: Are telling it's pretty loan call exactly. Hey, Ed, what

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Speaker 4: are you suggesting folks doing a fixed and can market

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Speaker 4: Because a lot of folks feel pretty comfortable at four

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Speaker 4: point twenty five percent into your treasury. Do they need

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Speaker 4: to take credit risk?

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Speaker 3: They don't really need to take credit risk, and I

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Speaker 3: welcome that. I think that's again normalization. We should have

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Speaker 3: an economy where if investors don't want to take risk,

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Speaker 3: they shouldn't be punished with zero to two percent yields

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Speaker 3: on their money market funds. I think they should be

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Speaker 3: getting a reasonable return, and four four and a half

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Speaker 3: percent is certainly a reasonable return on a two year

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Speaker 3: On the other hand, people who want to lock it

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Speaker 3: in can certainly go for the four and a half

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Speaker 3: and higher percents that are available in the capital markets,

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Speaker 3: so you don't have to take risk, but there's greater

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Speaker 3: reward obviously if you're willing to go extend into the

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Speaker 3: bond market, going to the corporates, maybe even into the

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Speaker 3: high yields.

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Speaker 2: Edgar Denny, thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: This morning, Edward Jardanney there with a call of seven

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Speaker 2: thousand XPX.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: This was the first name I asked for on James

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Speaker 2: Earl Carter. If you come out of Oberlin, you get

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Speaker 2: parchment from Oxford is a Rhodes scholar.

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Speaker 6: The first thing you do is sit in the mailroom

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Speaker 6: in the bottom of the Pentagon right and open mail.

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Speaker 6: Richard Os did this for Jimmy Carter in nineteen seventy nine.

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Speaker 6: What was it like, Ambassador has to be a young

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Speaker 6: buck at the Department of Defense? Is Jimmy Carter turned

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Speaker 6: Washington upside down?

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Speaker 7: Like? On one hand, Tom, it was an unbelievable opportunity.

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Speaker 7: I had just finished working on my doctorate where I

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Speaker 7: was writing about what was called East of Suez, what

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Speaker 7: we would call the Persian Gulf and the like, And

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Speaker 7: in seventy nine the two biggest crises happened to be

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Speaker 7: in Iran and Afghanistan. So there I was in my

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Speaker 7: late twenties and suddenly I was getting invited to meetings

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Speaker 7: with the Secretary of Defense and others. It was crazy,

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Speaker 7: but I also learned the limits of my role. At

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Speaker 7: one point, I was pressing on the tenant colonel to

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Speaker 7: allow me and some other civilians in on the details

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Speaker 7: of the contingency planning for what we might do in

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Speaker 7: that part of the world. And he sat me down

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Speaker 7: and he said, son, you're here for what another year

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Speaker 7: or two. I'm here for my whole career. You're what

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Speaker 7: we call Christmas health. No way let you see these plans.

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Speaker 2: Was the president Carter her Christmas help? EJ. Dione in

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Speaker 2: the Post this morning with an essay on a one

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Speaker 2: term president. When was it the hostage crisis, which you

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Speaker 2: lived directly it ended the presidency? Or was it more

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Speaker 2: than that to that landslide Reagan victory.

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Speaker 7: I think it was more than that. The Carter himself

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Speaker 7: thought if he had maybe ordered one more helicopter to

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Speaker 7: Desert one and we had rescued the hostages, he might

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Speaker 7: well have been re elected. Well, it's one of the

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Speaker 7: many things will we'll never know, But I think it

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Speaker 7: was more than that. Carter was not a good communicator.

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Speaker 7: There was a little bit of an eat your vegetables

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Speaker 7: quality to his presidency. He was telling us, maybe at

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Speaker 7: times Tom what we needed to hear. But we met,

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Speaker 7: but we certainly didn't want it here, whether it was

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Speaker 7: about the energy crisis and over. But the actual accomplishments

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Speaker 7: of the administration were many. But also though probably did

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Speaker 7: him in was high double digit inflation. You really can

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Speaker 7: had survived that, you know, politically, but that's said. He

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Speaker 7: accomplished more in one term than most presidents doing too.

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Speaker 4: Richard, given the hindsight that we do now have the

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Speaker 4: perspective that we do now have. From your perspective, what

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Speaker 4: do you think the Carter legacy is.

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Speaker 7: I think it's pretty impressive. I mean, if you think

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Speaker 7: about it. And I'll focus on foreign policy. It was

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Speaker 7: an interesting mixture of idealism and realism. He put human

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Speaker 7: rights squarely on the foreign policy agenda, something that Reagan

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Speaker 7: obviously continued. But he also negotiated arts controlled agreements with

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Speaker 7: Soviet Union. He normalized relations with communist China. He was

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Speaker 7: a realist about what the United States had accept in

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Speaker 7: terms of the nationalism and rights of others. So he

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Speaker 7: returned the Panama Canal, by the way, on terms that

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Speaker 7: have allowed us to use it ever ever since. He

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Speaker 7: wasn't the pacifist, but he was a great believer in peace.

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Speaker 7: He negotiated these David Agreements, the Egypt Egyptian Peace Treaty.

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Speaker 7: So I think I'll be seen as a president an

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Speaker 7: awful lot done in four years.

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Speaker 2: Ambassadors, when you were at the Council on Foreign Relations,

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Speaker 2: let me make clear with Centerview partners now, and I'm

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Speaker 2: going to say emeritis at Council in Foreign Relations is

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Speaker 2: he built the modern institution. You had the advantage of

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Speaker 2: Shannon O'Neill and others with terrific Latin coverage. Does President

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Speaker 2: Trump want to move us back to hey Buno Vanilla

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Speaker 2: Treaty of nineteen oh three with Panama? I mean, I

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Speaker 2: get Greenlands joke. Panama is not a joke after September seventh,

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Speaker 2: nineteen seventy seven. Does he simply want to move us

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Speaker 2: back to a treaty of nineteen oh three?

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Speaker 7: Tom, I don't take this as a joke. And I'm

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Speaker 7: not sure what his motives are who spoke to him,

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Speaker 7: because these issues were not raised during the campaign. But

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Speaker 7: I think it's unfortunate in terms of the hemisphere. I

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Speaker 7: also think it communicat it's the larger point that major

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Speaker 7: powers have the right to do what they want in

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Speaker 7: their own neighborhoods, which is music to the years of

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Speaker 7: Russia in Ukraine and China dealing with the South China

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Speaker 7: Sea and Taiwan. So again, if we have serious concerns

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Speaker 7: about Mexico or Canada or the Canal, there's something called diplomacy,

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Speaker 7: and use your diplomats and raise these issues. But don't

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Speaker 7: walk around the region as though you're entitled, because again

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Speaker 7: that set and not only puts everybody in the region

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Speaker 7: and alienates them, but it also sends a terrible message

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Speaker 7: again to Russia and China others that this is now

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Speaker 7: an acceptable way of doing business.

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Speaker 4: Richard, In terms of foreign relations, what do you expect

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Speaker 4: the first one hundred days of this incoming Trump administration?

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Speaker 4: Where do you think the focus will be.

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Speaker 7: I think it's got to be on Ukraine as much

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Speaker 7: as anything. And then secondly, what I'm hoping it is,

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Speaker 7: and I just wrote a long piece on it, is Iran.

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Speaker 7: And in terms of Ukraine, it's got to be coming

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Speaker 7: to a real meeting of the minds with mister Zelenski

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Speaker 7: and then presenting essentially an approach to Putin, putting pressure

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Speaker 7: on Putin to accept the peace fire, the cease fire,

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Speaker 7: and then with Iran, we inherit a situation where Iron's

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Speaker 7: on its heels. And what I've been advocating for is

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Speaker 7: the United States should offer a grand bargain to Iran.

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Speaker 7: Get out of the business of military support for proxies,

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Speaker 7: get out of the nuclear weapons business, and we'll ease

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Speaker 7: sanctioned so this regime of yours can survive. And that's

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Speaker 7: a big approach. But I hope we take it.

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Speaker 2: Investator US, thank you so much for perspective on Jimmy Carter.

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Speaker 2: Richard has of course a cent of your partners and

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Speaker 2: always associated with the Council on Foreign Relations.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarplay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: In my ute. Sat. Gabriel Mountains north of La were

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Speaker 2: basically invisible in the pollution like Mexico City of La.

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Speaker 2: And one of the miracles of this nation, including the

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Speaker 2: work of President Carter, was crystal clear St. Gabriel Mountains.

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Speaker 2: This is up buttressed with Elta Dina and this has

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Speaker 2: been one of the two major fires that we've seen

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Speaker 2: the last couple days. And if you migrate from Elta

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Speaker 2: Dina southwest across Lake Avenue beneath Lincoln Avenue, you're run

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Speaker 2: into Pasadena and Paul. This is where Ohio State wins

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Speaker 2: every year in the Rose Bowl. Seems like they win,

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Speaker 2: you know, I mean, that's the way it is. It's

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Speaker 2: four and a half miles a short distance to the

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Speaker 2: Rose Bowl from this horrific fire. We would speak to

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Speaker 2: James Glassman of JP Morgan, now retired in his glory,

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Speaker 2: about this job economy. He is definitive with his work

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Speaker 2: at North at Western, but we must speak to him

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Speaker 2: about what he's witnessed the last couple of days. Jim Glassman,

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Speaker 2: where you are a distance from the Altadena fires, do

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Speaker 2: you have smoke damage?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you don't want to look at the air quality index,

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Speaker 5: which is normally good is thirty to fifty. It was

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Speaker 5: three hundred and twenty five yesterday. They call it unhealthy,

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Speaker 5: and it's very it's very thick. It reminds me, actually,

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Speaker 5: what you were saying reminds me I lived here when

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Speaker 5: I was in first grade long ago, and it looks

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Speaker 5: just like I remember. You couldn't see them.

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Speaker 2: Out, Yeah, yeah, absolutely couldn't see that, Jim Glassman. Just

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Speaker 2: one more question on this. Do you have a sense

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Speaker 2: within the Glassman zeitgeist of Los Angeles that it's all

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Speaker 2: clear this morning or are people still stealed for more

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Speaker 2: winds and fire.

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Speaker 5: I think the winds seem to have settled down, but

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Speaker 5: the fire is going to take some time to get

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Speaker 5: a grip. When I looked at the review of all

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Speaker 5: the different fires, they said that none of it was

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Speaker 5: under control. Really, we've been kind of looking to see

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Speaker 5: when that's going to happen. But it's pretty it's going

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Speaker 5: to take a while. It's pretty devastating, and you know,

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Speaker 5: normally these stories are kind of remote to all of us.

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Speaker 5: We look, we know there's an issue going on somewhere,

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Speaker 5: and we calculate what is this going to do to

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Speaker 5: the economy. This is a real personal thing for me

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Speaker 5: because people had this. It's a I've got people living

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Speaker 5: in my house because they had to vacate from Brentwood

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Speaker 5: and Palisades. Uh, you know, they know half the you know,

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Speaker 5: big large community been disrupted, no home, nothing, nothing to

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Speaker 5: live in.

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Speaker 2: Doctors a little while to turn to the economy, and

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Speaker 2: with your brilliant work, particularly on teenage unemployment years ago,

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Speaker 2: are we a fully employed America?

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Speaker 5: I think we could be more fully employed. I think

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Speaker 5: we were prior to the pandemic, and then we kind

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Speaker 5: of got back there. It's it's loosening up a little bit.

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Speaker 5: But I think the problem really the labor market. It's

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Speaker 5: not so much we are by the standard metrics, we're

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Speaker 5: fully employed. But the problem really in America is that

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Speaker 5: the share of income that goes to the various things

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Speaker 5: that we use to produce GDB workers have been getting

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Speaker 5: a smaller share. And this has been going on since

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Speaker 5: the late nineteen nineties. And I think if you keep

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Speaker 5: I think if you keep an eye on the evolution

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Speaker 5: of what's going on in the labor market, the politics

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Speaker 5: makes a little more sense. The disruption that's going on

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Speaker 5: in the labor market has been really stunning. And you know,

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Speaker 5: that's kind of to me what this shrinking share of

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Speaker 5: income going to workers has meant. And it's got massive

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Speaker 5: implications for all kinds of thing news. And by the way,

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Speaker 5: you know, we grew up in school. I grew up

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Speaker 5: learning that, oh, keep your eye on are we fully

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Speaker 5: employed or not? And that's going to tell you whether

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Speaker 5: it's inflation danger. What we're learning in this millennium, the

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Speaker 5: last point five years, we're learning that that story doesn't

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Speaker 5: really make sense. A tight labor market is not really

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Speaker 5: the danger for inflation. And I think the FED people

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Speaker 5: have been slowly abandoning that view, as you hear from J.

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Speaker 4: Powell, and that's kind of where I want to go.

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Speaker 4: Jim just kind of the concern about inflation here is this,

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Speaker 4: are we in a new normal here where maybe that

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Speaker 4: two percent number that the Fed once isn't really where

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Speaker 4: we need to be.

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Speaker 5: Well, you know, I've heard Janet Yellen once say, you

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Speaker 5: know what if we if we could do it all

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Speaker 5: over again, maybe we would have picked a different target.

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Speaker 5: Because but I think I think the problem is once

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Speaker 5: you decide all the central banks around the world started

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Speaker 5: with Bank in New Zealand, when once I embrace the

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Speaker 5: idea that they should have as explicit target two percent,

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Speaker 5: the market bought it, and it's reflected in inflation expectations,

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Speaker 5: and it's really been anchory. It's an important anchor for

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Speaker 5: the bond market. I think I don't hear anymore people

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Speaker 5: worrying about what's the long run strategy of the central bank.

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Speaker 5: That we used to think about that all the time,

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Speaker 5: the politics of the central bank, of the monetary policy.

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Speaker 5: And I think the I think the advantage of picking

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Speaker 5: some number, whatever it is, you you could we can

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Speaker 5: quarrel about whether too is too low. But I think

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Speaker 5: once you do it, it's it's unwise to changing the.

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Speaker 2: Rules of Jim Glastan, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 2: Too short an interview on the economy at hand. Thank

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Speaker 2: you for the perspective on your rose bowl in Southern

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Speaker 2: California and Los Angeles as well.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

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Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 2: Good daily look at the front of pages around the

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Speaker 2: world that Lisa Matteo hour. Lisa, you start with something

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Speaker 2: many Americans are living right now.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, we've been talking about the wildfires. Now Airbnb they're

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Speaker 8: saying that they're going to be offering free temporary housing

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Speaker 8: to those affected. So yeah, we've heard about it before.

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Speaker 8: They do it through a group two one one LA.

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Speaker 8: It's a nonprofit in Los Angeles. But airbnb dot org

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Speaker 8: they've been providing these free temporary housing. They did it

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Speaker 8: for the Spain floods back in October twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 8: Southern California wildfire in September of last year, and also

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Speaker 8: those affected by the hurricanes. So a lot of hosts

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Speaker 8: open up their home for a discount, and then this

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Speaker 8: this website is a place where people can donate, so

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Speaker 8: then that covers the rest of the costs. So that

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Speaker 8: offers these people, yeah, some housing.

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Speaker 2: It so huge deal in La now and many people

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Speaker 2: moving south to San Diego. Their reach is huge here

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Speaker 2: even with the Rob Carolyn saying the storm moves to

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Speaker 2: the south.

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Speaker 8: What else does you have at sure this was a

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Speaker 8: Bloomberg survey. We've been talking so much about how AI

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Speaker 8: could take away jobs, so now this survey from Bloomberg Intelligence,

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Speaker 8: it kind of puts it into a perspective. It says

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Speaker 8: global banks they could cut as many as two hundred

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Speaker 8: thousand jobs the next three to five years. That's about

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Speaker 8: three percent of the industry's global workforce. Back office, middle

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Speaker 8: office operations. Those are the ones most at risk. But

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Speaker 8: he could also mean improved earnings, which they also point

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Speaker 8: out because banks could add as much as one hundred

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Speaker 8: and eighty billion dollars to their combined by twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: Right from the get go, they've talked about margin expansion.

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Speaker 2: I'm in the camp, Paul, I'm going to wait until

436
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 2: I see it right.

437
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 4: But this was a nice survey Bloomberg Intelligence senior bank's

438
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,439
Speaker 4: analyst Thomas Netzel over in London. He did the survey

439
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,439
Speaker 4: of a lot of big financial institutions over there, got

440
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 4: some good feedback, so again putting some numbers on the.

441
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 8: Dish, and they like City Group already letting staffers use

442
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 8: jen Ai to like scan through documents. At Klarna, they

443
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,880
Speaker 8: have aissystems doing the work of seven hundred full time

444
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 8: customer service.

445
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 4: Was a lowly bank investment banker. One of my jobs.

446
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 4: We spent many nights at the printer, literally at the

447
00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:01,119
Speaker 4: printer in Lower Manhattan, proofreading prospectuses, sitting there till like

448
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:05,120
Speaker 4: four in the morning. Proofreading perspectuses. Yea, God, you gotta

449
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:06,400
Speaker 4: automate that somehow, yea.

450
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 2: No, serf the recess when Paul was calling up doing

451
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 2: some you know, trades out front of the transition and

452
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 2: actually that was an issue, yeah, you know, on the

453
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 2: insider trading. Yeah, way back this next one, Lisa, I'm sorry,

454
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 2: this got a huge splash by Bloomberg.

455
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 8: It did, Okay, So this is when you kind of

456
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 8: tie it in. So what do Wall Street workers do

457
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 8: when they're out of work, because they've been showing there's

458
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 8: a thirty percent reduction in equity analysts at major banks.

459
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 8: So what some of them are doing who can't find work,

460
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 8: They're turning to social media and content creation, so they're

461
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 8: becoming basically, I guess influencers are giving out advice on

462
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 8: the finance industry. So one analyst sells Bloomberg, you know,

463
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 8: it's not easy, Like he's been out of work since

464
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 8: about two of that's twenty twenty two. He's thirty seven,

465
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 8: and this is all he's been able to find. So

466
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 8: he's kind of growing it. His his five figure income

467
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 8: in about a third of what he used to earn.

468
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 8: But he says he's trying. But it really gets into

469
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 8: how equity research is being squeezed down.

470
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,360
Speaker 2: To the heart of it quickly here because they want

471
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 2: to get to the other story here on Apple, there

472
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 2: are fifty six and four there are sixty analysts on

473
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 2: the an R screen. Do I need sixty opinions?

474
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 5: I'm guessing.

475
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 4: I'm guessing eight to ten are getting paid for their

476
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 4: Apple research. That's it. That's why we create a Bloomberg

477
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 4: intelligence fifteen years ago, because the Street was downsizing its

478
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 4: research commitment and so we just are Bloomberg decided let's

479
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 4: fill that void.

480
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 2: Well, thanks to Krid Moffatt for being with us. Is

481
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 2: so on Apple yesterday. One more, Lisa, have you.

482
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 8: Ever been to Vail, Colorado? They do Okay, have you

483
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 8: seen the homes, because this is about okay, pricey, pricey homes.

484
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 8: Wall Street Journal says more than fifteen thousand square foot

485
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 8: home could set a price record. It's going to go

486
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 8: on the market for seventy eight million dollars. Eleven bedrooms,

487
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,680
Speaker 8: indoor pool, two heated outdoor pools, two hot dubs, two kitchens,

488
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:59,719
Speaker 8: two elevators, a movie theater, and a gym that looks fantastic.

489
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 2: Do they pay taxes to support the kids driving three hours?

490
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: Yeah?

491
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 5: To flip stakes, Yeah exactly.

492
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 4: It's again the real estate out there. Like most resort

493
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 4: areas in the world, it's pricing out their employees. So

494
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 4: what Vail Resorts is doing is that they have to

495
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 4: build like dorms for their employees. Anyway, it's crazy out.

496
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 2: There, Lisa, thank you so much to subdued newspapers. Today

497
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:27,640
Speaker 2: here on this day of the funeral of James Earl Carter,

498
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: this is.

499
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 1: The Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere

500
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:37,880
Speaker 1: else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven

501
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, the

502
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

503
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

504
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,479
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg Terminal