1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:00,920 Speaker 1: Ron An Aian. 2 00:00:01,080 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 2: It may be something you know you've really got to 3 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:05,840 Speaker 2: bring up at the point of purchase and you really 4 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:08,119 Speaker 2: want to address. If there's a spare tire available for 5 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:10,879 Speaker 2: that vehicle, I think it's worth having it at pretty 6 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:11,640 Speaker 2: much any price. 7 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: Wow, the Car Doctor. 8 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:20,959 Speaker 2: I did that with the spare tire on the O 9 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 2: eight Silverado three years ago. 10 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: And I don't miss the storage space in the back. 11 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 2: The spare tire secure. And if you ever get a 12 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 2: flat tire in the snow, I'll be ready. I'll have 13 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 2: a nice dry tire to drag out of the. 14 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:33,599 Speaker 1: Back instead of having the call under even the snowbank. 15 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 2: Welcome to the radio home of ron An Aian, the 16 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:37,400 Speaker 2: Car Doctor. 17 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: Since nineteen ninety one. 18 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 2: This is where car owners the world overturned to for 19 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 2: their definitive opinion on automotive repair. 20 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,200 Speaker 1: If you're a mechanics giving you a busy signal, pick 21 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 1: up the phone and call in. The garage doors are open. 22 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 2: But I am here to take your call at eight 23 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 2: five five five six ninety. 24 00:00:55,520 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: Nine hundred and now key Welcome listeners running Indian The 25 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: Card Doctor. 26 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 3: Here. 27 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 2: You know our our our guest this hour needs no introduction. 28 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 2: He's been here before, and he's a fascinating listen. 29 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 1: He really is. 30 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 2: He's a great read, by the way, too, He's an author, 31 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 2: he's he's done just so much in the way of 32 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 2: the media trying to bring us all sorts of information, 33 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 2: in particular of late about electric vehicles. His recent paper 34 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:24,759 Speaker 2: Electric Vehicles for Everyone, The Impossible Dream Mark Mills from 35 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 2: the Manhattan Institute, is setting the I don't know if 36 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 2: I don't know if it's the correct word. Is setting 37 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 2: the industry on its ear or just upsetting everybody? Mark Mills, Mark, 38 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 2: welcome back, sir. 39 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 3: I'm trying to keep them out of the ditch. I'm 40 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:39,680 Speaker 3: trying to hear you know, are back? 41 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,960 Speaker 1: Where is that ditch? Mark? Are we in that ditch? 42 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 1: For evs? The EV future? 43 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 2: Is it? Is? It? Is it really becoming the fallacy 44 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 2: that we both believe it to be? 45 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 3: Well well, I think the risk here, I may have 46 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 3: said this before, but it's worth saying again is not 47 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 3: whether we guess how many evs will be in the future. 48 00:01:58,000 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 3: There'll be a lot of them. There's gonna be a 49 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 3: lot of EV's for a whole lot of reasons. But 50 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 3: it's not That's not what the issue is about. It's 51 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 3: not whether people want to buy as you know, whether 52 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 3: there are lots of consumers who want to buy evs, 53 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 3: lots of wealthy Americans with a garage and several cars, 54 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 3: and a lot of them are going to buy an 55 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 3: EV for a second or third car. I mean, that's 56 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 3: you can take that to the bank, as they say. 57 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 3: But that's not the issue. The issue is that governments, 58 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 3: states and federal governments are trying to pass laws and 59 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 3: have that will require everyone to own only an EV 60 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 3: buy only an EV in the very near future. And 61 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 3: not only is that not going to happen, the attempt 62 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 3: to make it happen, the subsidies and the spending and 63 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 3: the losses that the automakers are facing already in current 64 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 3: is actually at existential risk to their solvency. I think 65 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 3: FOURD and GM, if they continue on this path, may 66 00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 3: well go bankrupt again. And their big bet is whether 67 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 3: somebody's in the White House and that happens, we'll want 68 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 3: to bail them out a third time, because this would 69 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,119 Speaker 3: be the third bite at the apple of bailing out 70 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 3: US auto industries, and this time it will be a 71 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 3: combination of self inflicted and of course inflicted on them 72 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:22,359 Speaker 3: by government mandates or government subsidies and inducements. That's that's 73 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 3: what I think is at stake here. I think it's 74 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 3: a very serious problem, and I'm not happy about it. 75 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 3: I mean I'm not. I like EV's actually, I think 76 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 3: they're very exciting, and I think and odds are I'm 77 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 3: at the ninety percent level. My next car will I 78 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 3: have a hybrid. My next car will be a plug 79 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 3: in hybrid because I love the optionality and I'm fortunate 80 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 3: enough I can you know, I could buy one. But 81 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 3: for the the average car buyer, evs are expensive. They're 82 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 3: going to stay expensive. So we're selling into the quote 83 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 3: luxury car market, which is a big market in America. 84 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 3: I mean it's twenty percent of the entire market is 85 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 3: luxury cars, depending how you exactly define it summerteen, ten 86 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 3: and twenty percent. That's you know, it's a lot of 87 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 3: cars and a lot of money. And who doesn't you know, 88 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:11,360 Speaker 3: if you're a seller of the car, is you really 89 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 3: want to be you really want to sell on that 90 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 3: market because that's what the fat profit markets are. Even 91 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:19,119 Speaker 3: with evs. By the way, one hundred and twenty thousand 92 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 3: dollars Mercedes EV you know they're not losing money, they're 93 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 3: not for making money. 94 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 2: Well right, you know if the car if they're break 95 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:28,840 Speaker 2: evens one hundred. You know, ken Mercedes woke up to 96 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 2: it and go, we want to make twenty grand on 97 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 2: this car. They'll pay for it and we'll make it 98 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 2: one twenty, We'll make it one thirty. 99 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 1: You know who that can. 100 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 2: Afford a Mercedes or or anything of that class and level. 101 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 2: Who is going to sit there and quibble over and 102 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 2: what's twenty grand pocket change? 103 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 3: Yeah? 104 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: Well no, pro we'll give you that. 105 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 3: Especially when you're buying you're buying brand, you're buying image. 106 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,280 Speaker 3: And I've been in the eqs is. It's a nice car, right, 107 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 3: I mean it's really nicely put together car. It's an 108 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 3: awesome car. You'd hope it would for twenty grand. 109 00:04:57,680 --> 00:04:59,720 Speaker 1: I mean it better be U. 110 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 2: You know, I drove a Tesla the other week. I 111 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 2: meant to tell you I drove a Tesla about three 112 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 2: four weeks ago. Lightning Feast, Yeah, which one, uh lip peeling, Yeah, 113 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 2: I mean like it reminded me of the big block 114 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 2: Corvette my friend used to have back in the day 115 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 2: and just you know, right to the floor and gone 116 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 2: the d acceleration breaking is a little weird. 117 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, you gotta get used to that. 118 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 2: And what I noticed was, now, my friend Tony bought 119 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 2: the car and he's a car guy too, and we're 120 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,119 Speaker 2: driving down the road and I, you know, we're thinking 121 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:39,279 Speaker 2: about this, and I said, Tony, I want to turn 122 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 2: on the heat. 123 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: How would I do that? 124 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 2: Because it's it's a giant iPad and and you know, 125 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 2: you're taking your eyes off the road to look at 126 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 2: this iland going where's the button? You know, where do 127 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 2: I have to hit the screen? You know, I think 128 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 2: that's a problem because. 129 00:05:57,680 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 3: That's not that's not because it's electric. That's just the 130 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 3: effection before the right you know ID interface, which which 131 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:06,279 Speaker 3: is I agree with you is a mistake, which they'll 132 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 3: fix and excuse men knowing Elon Musk. The way they'll 133 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 3: fix it is it should be voice addressable. He's got 134 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 3: good AI. You should simply be able to say the car, 135 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 3: I want heat, and the car car should say to 136 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:22,039 Speaker 3: you what temperature would you like? And that will be it. 137 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,359 Speaker 3: And that's not that hard, so just just do it. 138 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 3: Searching for buttons is lethal. This is the ergonomics of automobiles. 139 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:31,679 Speaker 1: You know, it's it's got to be a button. 140 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 2: It's got to have tactile touch, because to try and 141 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 2: touch a flat screen now and yeah, that's insane. Now 142 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 2: the point becomes so he adds AI to it, he 143 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 2: adds more to it, And what does that do to 144 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 2: the price? And where's where's it? And the price keeps 145 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 2: going up? And what's the practicality of that? 146 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 3: You know that Since you and I talked last, I'll 147 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 3: say that I've done two things I think, other than 148 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 3: in my paper. The impossible dream, which again going to 149 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 3: beat this to death, is the impossible dream, is that 150 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:07,720 Speaker 3: everybody's going to be buying just evs in the near future, 151 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 3: you know, within a decade. That's just not going to happen. 152 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 3: And that's because of the underlying resource challenges. But the 153 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 3: the other myth that's been promulgated and which I covered, 154 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 3: you know, in the paper, but I've done more writing 155 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 3: and research on it since then, is this constant assertion 156 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 3: that evs are simpler, and because they're simpler, they're going 157 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 3: to get cheaper. And also that means, hence the auto 158 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 3: the huge epic UAW strike, that simpler vehicles mean less labor, 159 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 3: less labor. That's why they want to strike. That's that's 160 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 3: the book on it, right, we have read it constantly. 161 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 3: They're not simpler. This is really an incredibly fundamental error 162 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 3: that tells you all you need to know about the 163 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 3: future costs of an EV, and it's it's in this 164 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 3: misunderstanding of where the complexity lies in a conventional car. 165 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 3: Everyone knows the internal combustion engines that we use are 166 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 3: pretty complex, hundreds of parts, maybe maybe a thousand parts 167 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 3: depending on the engine. And the fuel tank's pretty simple. 168 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 3: You know, it's got electric pump, one moving part and tank. 169 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 3: But an EV is the inverse. It's complexity is not 170 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 3: in the propulsion. The motor has a moving part, and 171 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 3: sometimes there's three motors, like in the Tesla, so you 172 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 3: have three moving parts instead one hundreds. But the fuel 173 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 3: system has thousands of parts. There are thousands of cells, 174 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 3: thousands of wells. There's there's a safety system, there's a 175 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,679 Speaker 3: power electronics control system, there's a cooling system, and a 176 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:40,199 Speaker 3: structural system all made up of parts and collectively thousands 177 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 3: of parts. It's a complex fuel system and a simple 178 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:47,959 Speaker 3: propulsion system, which is the inverse of a conventional car, 179 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 3: which has a complex you know, transmission and right compulsion. 180 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 3: And that's so then once you know that, you know 181 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 3: where the costs lies. The costs line in the battery 182 00:08:56,480 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 3: and the batteries complexities and the mineral costs drive the 183 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 3: whole storium when and where it might get cheaper, and 184 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 3: they ain't get cheaper fast. But more importantly, that's where 185 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 3: the labor lies. This is what and the UAW picked 186 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 3: this out. So as you probably know, the settlements, they 187 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:16,560 Speaker 3: dragged the joint venture battery assembly plants. And I call 188 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 3: them assembly plants because they're assembling largely Asian and Chinese 189 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 3: made components and chemicals into a battery. So they call them, 190 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 3: you know, manufacturing plants is a bit of a misnomer. 191 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 3: It's like calling a you know, automotive manufacturing plant manufacturing plant, 192 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 3: but you import all the components and assemble it there. 193 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 3: That's what we're doing with batteries. 194 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: Ante. 195 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 2: So you're telling me we're building an EV for the 196 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 2: future with a battery that's made up of components that 197 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 2: aren't here in the US. So we're becoming we're becoming 198 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:59,319 Speaker 2: dependent on other countries to maintain our EV future exactly, 199 00:09:59,400 --> 00:09:59,719 Speaker 2: and in. 200 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 3: Fact, we know this is not my data. It's now 201 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 3: pretty widely publicized, but it wasn't hard to figure out. 202 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 3: Even the magic Google machine can tell you all these things. 203 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 3: The percentage the market share China has alone in ev components, 204 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 3: the battery components, which is things are called separators, Cathoe's anos, 205 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 3: the electrolytes, the components, their market share is between fifty 206 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:26,559 Speaker 3: and eighty percent. Their market share on the chemical formulations 207 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 3: and the chemicals you need in the minerals refine copper, nickel, graphite, 208 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 3: and lithium refining, not the mines refining. It's like saying, 209 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,559 Speaker 3: you know, droll oil, I don't have any refineries make gasoline. 210 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 3: You need refineries. The refinery market share ranges from fifty 211 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 3: percent to ninety percent for child global share. So he said, well, 212 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:49,959 Speaker 3: we'll just subsidize and do it here. Okay, I mean, 213 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 3: I'm all, I'm all in for big industry at America. 214 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 3: But these are not businesses that you can subsidize into 215 00:10:56,120 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 3: existence overnight. It will take a good decade. Even with 216 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:04,320 Speaker 3: subsidies and subsidies, you can't keep going forever. You have 217 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 3: to create an environment in which it's profitable to build 218 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 3: these kinds of businesses, which we haven't done in America 219 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 3: for a long time. So whatever one thinks the future 220 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 3: might hold a decade out and I optimistic will bring 221 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:20,679 Speaker 3: a lot of manufacturing and mining back eventually. But the 222 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 3: next decade means we are completely flipping not just the 223 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:28,319 Speaker 3: complexity of the vehicle, but where the components come from 224 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 3: and where the labor is. I mean, the labor associated 225 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 3: with making all those components, making the refinement, minerals and 226 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 3: metals is elsewhere. A lot of it in China, a 227 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 3: lot of it elsewhere, but it's not here. So the 228 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 3: autoworkers were right about something. Right, This money that's been 229 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 3: thrown around by the Inflation Reduction Act that are well 230 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 3: named legislation is going to other countries and other companies. 231 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 3: It's leaking out of our country, and that's no secret. 232 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 3: I mean, the administration is actually negotiating with countries from 233 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia to Morocco, not just Australia and Canada, to 234 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 3: be structured sets that they can benefit from taxpayer's money, 235 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 3: our government's money to make the components for batteries that 236 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 3: will be assembled here. 237 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 2: Mark hold that thought. Let me let me pull over, 238 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 2: take a pause, because we're gonna run over. But that's wow. 239 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:22,520 Speaker 2: I'm running any in the Car Doctor here with Mark 240 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 2: Mills of the Manhattan Institute, Electric Vehicles for Everyone, The 241 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 2: Impossible Dream. 242 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 1: We'll both be back right after this. 243 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 4: Don't go away, whether it's a little red Corvette or 244 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 4: you go. 245 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: You've come to the right place to get that car fixed. 246 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 1: Ron An any in the Car Doctor eight five five 247 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: five six zero nine nine zero zero. Now back to Ron. 248 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 2: Welcome back listeners, Ron Nanny and the Car Doctor here 249 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 2: this hour with Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute talking evs. Mark, 250 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 2: we pulled away for the pause. You know, in your 251 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 2: article electric Vehicles for Everyone, The Impossible Dream, you make 252 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 2: a point in the early couple of pages no one 253 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 2: knows how much, if at all, so you know two 254 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 2: emissions will decline as ev use rises. 255 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: That's a pretty bold statement. 256 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,680 Speaker 2: Uh. You know, we've got governments betting on this, car 257 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 2: company's betting on this, society betting on this, and you're 258 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:24,679 Speaker 2: telling you're telling us that it's not going to work 259 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 2: because we don't know how much. 260 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,079 Speaker 1: We're going to reduce, which is the whole point of it. 261 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:32,440 Speaker 3: This, this is this is the biggest single scandal which 262 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 3: continues to puzzle me. Mine doesn't puzzle me because I 263 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 3: know I know how myths are created in the narrative. 264 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 3: So EV's don't have tailpipes, they don't burn fuel, therefore 265 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 3: zero missions. I mean, like this is to use the 266 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 3: overused duh. It's duh, it's a duh. That's not the point. 267 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 3: EV's emit carbon dioxide when they're parked and we're not running, right, 268 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 3: They emit carbon dioxide when you fuel them when they're parked, 269 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 3: based on what kind of power plants you have, and 270 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 3: you don't know what the emissions really are unless you 271 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 3: know exact actly when and where you fuel fuel it, right, 272 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 3: I mean, think about this. It's it's not the average 273 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:08,440 Speaker 3: kill of an hour that's fueling the ev that doesn't. 274 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 3: That's not what matters is the physical location in the 275 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 3: hour and minute that you put electricity in that those 276 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 3: are the emissions to fill that car up. And they 277 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 3: can range from the for the fill up very little. 278 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 3: If it happens to be you know, California and it's 279 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 3: a sunny day and it's not a it's not if 280 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 3: it's an evening and it's not very windy, suns down, 281 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 3: it's going to be using natural gas for electricity if 282 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 3: it's in a lot of parts of the country's call. 283 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 3: So everybody knows that that story or that story tells 284 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 3: you that it's hard to know, but the mass does 285 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 3: work out that if that were the only factor compared 286 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 3: to gasoline, that would reduce CO two missions. And that's 287 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 3: where everybody's head is because they're ignoring the elephant in 288 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 3: the room, which is back to the battery. When I 289 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 3: told you it's a complex machine. It's a thousand pound battery. 290 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 3: The thousand pounds battery requires physically digging up something on 291 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 3: the order of five hundred thous pounds of the earth 292 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 3: somewhere on the planet to get to the minerals and 293 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 3: refine them and make the one battery. 294 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 1: And that's that's for each and every battery. 295 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 2: So each and every time we're we're moving five hundred 296 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 2: thousand pounds of material to make the main battery one 297 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 2: car battery. 298 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 3: Now, this is this is the thing you'd want to know, 299 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 3: and this is my point is we don't really know 300 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 3: is it. Is it five hundred thousand pounds or two 301 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 3: hundred fifty thousand pounds, Is it a million pounds? Excuse me? 302 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 3: It varies depending on where the mines are and what's 303 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 3: called the or grade, the concentration of copper, nickel gaphite 304 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 3: in the area, and it varies widely across the words 305 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 3: you do. Actually, no one actually knows exactly where the 306 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 3: minerals come from because it's a labyrinthine, opaque supply chain 307 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 3: the global mining and refining industry. We do know a 308 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 3: lot comes from China. As I said before, graphite, which 309 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 3: is an every listhium battery, ninety percent of it is refined, 310 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 3: is supplied out of China on its grid, providing electricity 311 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 3: to do that. That's sixty percent coal fired. So coal 312 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 3: fired power plants are making materials to go into into 313 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 3: a battery that weighs a half ton. You'd want to know, 314 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 3: you'd think the emissions that are associated upstream to do 315 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 3: all that mining and refining. So I looked, you know, 316 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 3: in that paper, I cited probably two dozen studies along 317 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 3: this linesers and I cited a paper that did a 318 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 3: meta study of fifty studies of this issue. So the 319 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 3: technical community has been studying it. There's dozens and dozens 320 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 3: of studies of this so called supply chain. The total 321 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 3: upstream emissions, and what you find is there's no conclusion. 322 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,360 Speaker 3: The numbers that come back vary by a factor of 323 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 3: three hundred percent or four hundred percent, or put differently, 324 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 3: they vary by so much that the emissions that occur 325 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 3: just to make the materials to make your battery for 326 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 3: an ev can be greater than the emissions from burning 327 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 3: gasoline for the entire life of a car you replaced. 328 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 3: Just at in the data in the literature. So you 329 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:03,760 Speaker 3: look at that, you scratch your head and say, well, 330 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 3: wait a minute, is it possible? So you look at 331 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 3: their researcher. Yep, it's not only possible, it's likely, and 332 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 3: it's worse than that. Let mean the or grade, the 333 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 3: concentration of minerals in rock, that's the OR grade has 334 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:24,920 Speaker 3: been declining for centuries and still declining and will decline 335 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 3: as far as we know in the future. It's what's 336 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:30,639 Speaker 3: in all the geophysical literature. What does that mean? Declining 337 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 3: or grade means inversely, it is to dig up more 338 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:36,880 Speaker 3: rock that gets the same amount of metal, whether it's 339 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 3: copper or nickel, or graphite, manganese, cobo. It's a difference. 340 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 3: Digging up more stuff means more big machines burning more 341 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 3: diesel fuel, emitting more carbon dioxide. So what that would 342 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 3: tell you is, if you go into the future, each 343 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 3: marginal factory that's manufactured, is we need a higher emissions 344 00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:58,880 Speaker 3: in the upstream. 345 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 2: Process in terms of what it took them to make. 346 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 2: It's gonna cost us more in terms to get the material. Mark, 347 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 2: let's let's stop there. We're gonna go take another pause. 348 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 2: I'm ronnin Any and the Car Doctor here with Mark Mills. 349 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: We're talking EV's. 350 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,400 Speaker 2: We'll pick this point up back on the other side. 351 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 2: We'll be right after this. Don't go away. 352 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 3: Ron's in his own the Auto Zone studio, and he'll 353 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:23,159 Speaker 3: be back right after this. 354 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 1: Welcome back to the AutoZone studio. Here's Ron. 355 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 2: Welcome back listeners. Ron and Any and the Card Doctor 356 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 2: here today with Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute talking. 357 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,879 Speaker 2: EV's as always, and we're talking about his paper, The 358 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,640 Speaker 2: Electric Vehicle Future. EV's for everyone, the Impossible Dream. 359 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:54,920 Speaker 1: Mark. 360 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 2: You know, maybe the simple question to ask is, you know, 361 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,679 Speaker 2: when do we wake up? You know, we keep talking 362 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 2: about the things that don't work, and the five hundred 363 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 2: thousand pounds to make one battery and the co two 364 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 2: emissions that come out of evs, even though everybody thinks 365 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 2: they're emissions free. 366 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: And and and you know. 367 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 2: The lack of hardware that'll be exist for the you 368 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:17,159 Speaker 2: know that five year old car and five years it 369 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 2: needs computer parts that may or may not exist because 370 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:21,920 Speaker 2: it's a computer. Computers get outdated, we don't have. 371 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 1: Chips and so on. 372 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,159 Speaker 2: What what do you think it's going to take to 373 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 2: get us to wake up as a society that you know, 374 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:30,680 Speaker 2: this is the ultimate dream is actually a nightmare. 375 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 1: Where where does that begin? 376 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 2: Do you think? 377 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 3: Well? I think the society largely is awake because they're 378 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 3: not buying evs on mass they could, and as you know, 379 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 3: they're selling up on the showroom floors and parking lots 380 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 3: are not selling it the rate manufacturers hoped. So they're awake. 381 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 3: They're not buying them at the at the velocity everybody 382 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 3: hoped or thought or forecast, and the losses in the 383 00:19:55,359 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 3: auto industry and the supplying the suppliers are epic. They're awake, 384 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:04,000 Speaker 3: they're paying attention. Maybe the question you're asking, would the 385 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 3: politicians wake up? And that's a I could say, that's 386 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 3: beyond my pay grade. I think the question answers itself. 387 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 3: They'll wake up when you know, bad things happen, so 388 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 3: we'll have bankrupty. This already happened on the bus front. 389 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 3: You probably saw the news recently of the us EV 390 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 3: bus maker that went belly up. Yeah, despite subsidies, that's 391 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 3: what will happen. It'll it'll. I think people political class 392 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:39,120 Speaker 3: will abandon this, these silly postures long before the deadlines 393 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 3: of you can't buy a regular car hit because it's 394 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 3: easy to say you can't buy a regular CARV in 395 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,400 Speaker 3: twenty thirty five when you're a politician in twenty twenty three, 396 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 3: because you're not. You don't think you're going to be 397 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:54,400 Speaker 3: governor then, or you are going to be present then. 398 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, Murphy in New Jersey just he keeps banging the 399 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 2: drum twenty thirty five. No more, guess cars going, or 400 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 2: we better get busy. We got an awful lot of 401 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 2: infrastructure to build, never mind the rest of it. It 402 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 2: doesn't make any sense. But yeah, I just I don't 403 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 2: understand it, and we just keep you know, the emperor 404 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 2: has no clothes. I keep saying that. 405 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:17,479 Speaker 3: Well, you know, some of the awakening is visible in 406 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:23,159 Speaker 3: conventional media. New York Times Washington Post, Bloomberg, you know, 407 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 3: very television documentaries. They're starting to trace these supply chains. 408 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 3: They're starting to notice that China is a big supplier. 409 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 3: They visit countries like Indonesia, which is the biggest nickel 410 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:35,400 Speaker 3: supplier in the world, look at the environmental challenges there 411 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:37,920 Speaker 3: and the human rights challenges they go to. They're starting 412 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 3: to look at these things and realizing, well, wait a minute, 413 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 3: this is not some kind of you know, fairy tale nirvana. 414 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 3: It's it's complicated, big industries other places, not here. And 415 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 3: then they you know, the news is covering the opposition 416 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 3: that environmental movement has to opening minds up everywhere, not 417 00:21:56,000 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 3: just in America. So it's a it's a contradiction, and 418 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,200 Speaker 3: that's become very obvious, and it's starting to leak out. 419 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 3: And I think, I think the awakening is happening, frankly, 420 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 3: but we'll spend a lot of money yet, I mean, 421 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 3: I'm not naive. It's not like there's going to be 422 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 3: a Maya Kulpa tomorrow saying oh, this is not a 423 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,160 Speaker 3: bad idea, We're going to stop. Is a practical matter. 424 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:20,960 Speaker 3: If governments just stopped mandating and subsidizing evs, and let 425 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 3: manufacturers let Tesla God bless Elon Muski's done a great job, frankly, 426 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 3: and he's an amazing guy. Just let them sell luxury 427 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,400 Speaker 3: evs to whoever wants to buy them. See how where 428 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,880 Speaker 3: the mar could goes be great? It won't cut seal 429 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 3: two missions significantly, might not cut it at all. But 430 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,159 Speaker 3: you know, I'd have to say, without being facetious, so 431 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 3: what because that's not how That's not how you can 432 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:46,399 Speaker 3: cut steal two missions by by building things that cause 433 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:50,159 Speaker 3: seal commissions elsewhere, you know, in China, in Africa. So 434 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 3: I think the awakening is coming because the promises are 435 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 3: being shown to be you know, either flawed or just 436 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 3: plain falls ramifications. 437 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:02,680 Speaker 2: Mark, if you were to look in the crystal ball, 438 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 2: you know where do the ramifications of what we're doing 439 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 2: today hurt the country economically in the future, Well, ten 440 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 2: years out, twenty years out, fifty years out, I'll started. 441 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 3: Hurting much sooner than that. Because here's the essence of 442 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 3: the problem. The Inflation Reduction Act, which is almost entirely 443 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 3: directed at quote the energy transition electric vehicles you know, 444 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 3: wind and solar is going to spend is going to 445 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,120 Speaker 3: cause to be spent about two trillion dollars and you're 446 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 3: properly costed, which several analysts have done. When Mackenzie has 447 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 3: done that, Goldman Sachs which a two trillion dollars spend 448 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 3: to avoid using hydrocarbons, oil, gas and coal two trillion, 449 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 3: And in order to do that, we're going to have 450 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 3: to buy stuff made in China. So just let's do 451 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 3: the math here we're gonna have We're gonna spend two 452 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,440 Speaker 3: trillion dollars somebody we're going to print to buy and 453 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 3: import stuff from China. The Dell manufacture doing what they're 454 00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 3: doing it with their cheap electric grids with plants, and 455 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 3: they're building right now. Never mind how many coal plants 456 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 3: already have, which is much more than America has ever had. 457 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 3: They're planning to build more coal plants and said they're 458 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,400 Speaker 3: going to continue building them. So they're going to make 459 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:17,800 Speaker 3: cheap electricity by burning coal to manufacture the stuff to 460 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 3: sell us to make expensive electricity and expensive cars. This 461 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 3: is a really bad trade. 462 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,360 Speaker 2: They've got to be laughing at us. So you're telling me, 463 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 2: in essence, we're putting two trillion dollars of our money 464 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 2: into their economy for something that won't work. 465 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 3: It will work in only the sense that you can 466 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 3: build these things, but they don't get cheaper, and they 467 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,399 Speaker 3: won't work to do what they're claiming, which is cutting 468 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 3: CO two missions significantly, if at all. It's an astonishingly 469 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 3: bad trade. But let me cap how bad a trade 470 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:56,120 Speaker 3: it is. According to the administration's own calculations, if all 471 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 3: the money is spent on the Inflationial Reduction Act and 472 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 3: the Infrastructure Act to eliminate hydrocarbons, if it actually gets spent, 473 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 3: the theoretical reduction of carbon dioxide emissions comes to one 474 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 3: billion tons of CO two per year. Sounds like a 475 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,400 Speaker 3: big number, all right, you know, if it happens, it's possible. 476 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:18,160 Speaker 3: It's not impossible. Maybe, but China is built building new 477 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 3: coal plants to sell us the stuff to reduce our 478 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,200 Speaker 3: emissions by one billion tons. The new coal plants, just 479 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 3: the new ones, just the new ones. When they finish 480 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,440 Speaker 3: building them to make this stuff to sell us will 481 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:37,520 Speaker 3: emit two billion tons of CO two. So I mean, 482 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:42,000 Speaker 3: think about it. We're giving them money to build coal plants, 483 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:46,400 Speaker 3: they'll emit more CO two then we save by buying 484 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,159 Speaker 3: this stuff from them. I mean, you can't make this 485 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,159 Speaker 3: stuff up. But that's in fact what's happening. If this 486 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:54,200 Speaker 3: is not this is not a fictional effect, listeners would 487 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 3: think I'm making it up. All these data are easy 488 00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 3: to find on the on the on the map to internet. 489 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:02,159 Speaker 3: It just it's crazy. 490 00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:06,639 Speaker 1: My head hurts, your. 491 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 3: Pocket books that are hurt. And and think about the 492 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 3: geopolitics here right, What with China, with its market share 493 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:20,439 Speaker 3: at the moment, has not exercised any price control. What 494 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:22,320 Speaker 3: makes us think they're never going to do that? I mean, 495 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 3: how naive can one be? 496 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:25,200 Speaker 1: Right? 497 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,639 Speaker 2: We're in business with them now? Yeah, or ever so 498 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:30,440 Speaker 2: much more, not that we haven't built. 499 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,880 Speaker 3: You know, since you and I talked last on this subject, 500 00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,959 Speaker 3: China has fired a warning shot across our bow. So 501 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,400 Speaker 3: everyone probably knows that the administration has restricted the export 502 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 3: of high end computer chips to China because you know, 503 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 3: we're we're in a fight here, and for good reason. 504 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 3: But that I think was a little bit of a 505 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,400 Speaker 3: ham handed move. Personally. What did China do well? They 506 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:59,119 Speaker 3: sequentially announced that they were putting gallium and germanium. It's like, oh, 507 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 3: in elements, but they're important ones which China provides ninety 508 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 3: percent of the world's refined galum and germanium the potential 509 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 3: export restriction list. That was their response. And those are 510 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:16,160 Speaker 3: the materials we used to make vitamining diodes. The whole 511 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 3: gallum mar Snyde family of semiconductors that make lasers and computers, 512 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 3: communications systems are all dependent on those two elements, gallum 513 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:29,000 Speaker 3: and germanium. We don't produce any significant quantity that They've 514 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,120 Speaker 3: just let us know that they're going to restrict their 515 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 3: quote high end gallum in germanium. And then three weeks 516 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:38,480 Speaker 3: ago they added graphite to that. Remember I measured earlier 517 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 3: they produced ninety percent of the world's graph height for 518 00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:44,160 Speaker 3: the lithium batteries, and they ran all lithium batteries. They've 519 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 3: added that to the list. So their quid pro quo 520 00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 3: was just a reminder. You restrict computer chips from US 521 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,800 Speaker 3: and allies going to China, we China can restrict high 522 00:27:55,920 --> 00:28:00,080 Speaker 3: end minerals and refined minerals going to your country, and 523 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,920 Speaker 3: you won't be able to build your military equipment, you 524 00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,359 Speaker 3: won't be able to build your lasers, you won't be 525 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 3: to build your batteries, you won't be a build your 526 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 3: electric cars. Or your offro wind turbines. 527 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:10,920 Speaker 1: We won't be able to afford to there. 528 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 2: They've got all our money at this point, they've got 529 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 2: the two trillion dollars. So Mark, we're gonna pull over. 530 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,360 Speaker 2: We're gonna pull over. Take a pause. I'm running any 531 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,399 Speaker 2: in the car Doctor. We're we're here with the always 532 00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 2: enjoyable Mark Mills, the Manhattan Institute. We'll both return right 533 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:53,760 Speaker 2: after this. Don't go away. 534 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 1: All the back listeners running any in the car Doctor. 535 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 2: We're getting our head spun around this hour Market Institute. Mark, 536 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,959 Speaker 2: My my head hurts after this conversation about EV's so 537 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 2: in our in our closing couple of minutes, there's a 538 00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:57,880 Speaker 2: there's a statement in your paper, the electric vehicles for everyone, 539 00:28:57,920 --> 00:28:58,880 Speaker 2: the impossible dream. 540 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,280 Speaker 1: No one knows when or whether weather. No one knows 541 00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:04,240 Speaker 1: when or weather. 542 00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,800 Speaker 2: Evs will reach economic parody with the cars that most 543 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:08,480 Speaker 2: people drive. 544 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 3: Wow yeah, yeah, well yeah, that's just the fact. And 545 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 3: that's on two counts. First, economic parity means the cost 546 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 3: for the average person to buy the vehicle and the 547 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,240 Speaker 3: cost for the average person to use the vehicle, to 548 00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 3: use it daily, right, because trips so on to buy it. 549 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 3: Everything is about the minerals to make the battery. But 550 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 3: with every analyst, every serious analyst, has pointed out that 551 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:38,720 Speaker 3: the world is not mining enough of the copper, nickel, cobalt, manganese, 552 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,760 Speaker 3: is not to listenum, it's all the other stuff, and 553 00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,160 Speaker 3: the demand on that's going to cost prices to go up. 554 00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:49,880 Speaker 3: Everyone who studies this in geology and geophysics and economics 555 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 3: sees that coming in the next few years. So that'll 556 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,560 Speaker 3: make the cars more expensive and not less expensive, and 557 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:56,440 Speaker 3: there's no visibility on how to get around that for 558 00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,600 Speaker 3: at least a decade or much longer. The other part, 559 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,120 Speaker 3: of course, this is one of the economic features of 560 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,239 Speaker 3: your car, is how convenient is it? What does it 561 00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 3: cost you to refiel it when you've got to drive somewhere. 562 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 3: Since only a third of homeowners have a garage for 563 00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:11,760 Speaker 3: overnight charging, and even if you have a garage for 564 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 3: overnight charging, you still have to fuel on the road, 565 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 3: you'd want to know what does it cost? Is it 566 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 3: really cost to do that? And the end we know 567 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,520 Speaker 3: the answer. This, By the way, it's an electrical engineering. 568 00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,959 Speaker 3: It's not a mystery. There's no there's no there's no 569 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 3: there is no opaqueness except in the sort of the 570 00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:34,280 Speaker 3: happy talk roughly tenfold more expensive per nozzle, the infrastructure 571 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 3: to power an EV on the highway, to plug it 572 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,680 Speaker 3: in on the supercharger, and build everything that's required for that, 573 00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 3: the grid behind it. It's ten times more expensive per 574 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:48,520 Speaker 3: road mile than the gasoline infrastructure. Ten times more, not 575 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:52,800 Speaker 3: ten percent more, ten times more. Wow, and somebody's gonna 576 00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 3: pay for that. So the seven billion dollars is being 577 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,640 Speaker 3: spent to put superchargers around the country. 578 00:30:57,720 --> 00:30:59,800 Speaker 1: Jump change it's dropping. 579 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 3: You need hundreds of billions of all as the superchargers 580 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 3: and hundreds of billions of dollars of great infrastructure behind 581 00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 3: it to replicate the convenience and the economics economic convenience 582 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:17,800 Speaker 3: is your time with gasoline, and it'll cost more. So 583 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 3: the economic convenience is there, but the capitol convenience is not. 584 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,720 Speaker 3: There's no visibility on changing that. It's just this isn't 585 00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 3: there's no there's no magic invention that's come along. It'll 586 00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:32,600 Speaker 3: make that different for these battery powered cars. They'll be 587 00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 3: great for a minority of the population who have multiple 588 00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,080 Speaker 3: cars and who would like that when they can charge 589 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,120 Speaker 3: in the garage and use around town. That's a big market. 590 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,000 Speaker 3: It doesn't change the world right and the world. 591 00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,360 Speaker 2: The world comes up short, Mark, if the listeners want 592 00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 2: to read, you know, electric vehicles for everyone? 593 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,520 Speaker 1: Is it online somewhere? Can they go? Where can they go? 594 00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 2: Grab it? 595 00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,920 Speaker 3: The Google will find it for you immediately, Marked females, 596 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,520 Speaker 3: check the Close the Impossible Dream. The Manhattan Institute website 597 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:06,360 Speaker 3: has it. It's a PDF download. I apologize, it's a 598 00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,680 Speaker 3: long paper, eighteen thousand words. I couldn't put all his data. 599 00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,360 Speaker 3: It's got two hundred and fifty citations. I couldn't put 600 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,480 Speaker 3: all the data into Southern short. But I think it's clear. 601 00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 3: I think the paper is accessible by non experts, and 602 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,880 Speaker 3: there's no handwaving in it, and there's no invective. I 603 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 3: don't insult anybody. It's just these are the facts. Jack. 604 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,400 Speaker 2: Now, I'll tell you Mark in the year and a half, 605 00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,080 Speaker 2: almost two years now, that I know you. You don't 606 00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,360 Speaker 2: insult anybody. You just you know what and your world 607 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,280 Speaker 2: two and two is four and I really dig that. 608 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 2: It's absolutely spot on. So you know, you had said 609 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 2: what we're seeing now with the resistance to evs by 610 00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:44,360 Speaker 2: manufacturers in the public. 611 00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,360 Speaker 1: You pulled us that almost two years ago. 612 00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:51,240 Speaker 2: And here we are, so we'll read, we'll look forward 613 00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:52,960 Speaker 2: to it, and we'll have you back again real soon. 614 00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:54,200 Speaker 1: Mark, thank you very much. 615 00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:55,400 Speaker 3: Thanks for having me on. 616 00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:57,160 Speaker 1: You're great to talk again always. 617 00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:57,840 Speaker 2: You're very welcome. 618 00:32:57,880 --> 00:32:58,719 Speaker 1: I'm on an ending in the car. 619 00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:13,480 Speaker 2: Doctor. I'll be back right after this. Don't go away, and. 620 00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:14,200 Speaker 1: We are back. 621 00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 3: Boy. 622 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 1: It's great talking to Mark Mills, isn't it. 623 00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:20,720 Speaker 2: I mean, just to listen to him and the concepts, 624 00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 2: and it's interesting to note that he becomes more correct 625 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,080 Speaker 2: every day every day that goes by. You know, what 626 00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:34,200 Speaker 2: he predicts will happen is happening, and it's it's just 627 00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,040 Speaker 2: a little unsettling, right, you know. It's as he says, 628 00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:38,880 Speaker 2: there will be an electric vehicle future. There will be 629 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,200 Speaker 2: electric vehicles in our future, but just not at the 630 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,400 Speaker 2: scale and the size and the amount that they're talking 631 00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:45,640 Speaker 2: about that it's. 632 00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:46,840 Speaker 1: Just not going to be there. It's just not going 633 00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:47,360 Speaker 1: to happen. 634 00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 2: And you know, you wonder when will they smarten up, 635 00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 2: When will it really happen that you're going to start 636 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,560 Speaker 2: to see the effects of it. We're seeing rumblings now, 637 00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 2: we're starting there talks of states that are pulling back 638 00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,840 Speaker 2: their man dates for all evs by twenty thirty five 639 00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:07,040 Speaker 2: and so on. California seems to be, you know, diving 640 00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,480 Speaker 2: in head first. They just seem to be pumbling along. 641 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:12,480 Speaker 2: And it's interesting when I talk to Mark, he mentions 642 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 2: there are a lot of things, and I think it's 643 00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:18,879 Speaker 2: the Inflation Reduction Act that was signed by this current 644 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:22,359 Speaker 2: administration and things that are in there for you know, 645 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:28,120 Speaker 2: the Green Deal, the Green you know, programs to lower 646 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,600 Speaker 2: carbon footprints and so forth, and an awful lot of 647 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,000 Speaker 2: money it's going overseas, it seems. But I don't want 648 00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:34,800 Speaker 2: to make this political. I want to make this about cars. 649 00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 2: But politics is going to get into this somewhere along 650 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:38,200 Speaker 2: the way, and I think we all have to be 651 00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,040 Speaker 2: aware of that. So, you know what, let's all just 652 00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 2: watch the news. Let's just be aware that, you know, 653 00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,800 Speaker 2: what happens is or what's happening is going to affect 654 00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,680 Speaker 2: us for generations to come. The next couple of years 655 00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:54,040 Speaker 2: are going to be critical and I just be curious 656 00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:57,040 Speaker 2: to see where it all goes. So I also talked 657 00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:59,080 Speaker 2: to Mark off the air. We're going to bring him 658 00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,200 Speaker 2: back some time after the first of the year and 659 00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:05,160 Speaker 2: talk about batteries specifically, so I look forward to that conversation. 660 00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,240 Speaker 1: I'm Ronning, Andy and the car Doctor. Thanks for stopping 661 00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:07,760 Speaker 1: by today. 662 00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:09,759 Speaker 2: As always, it's been a pleasure, and I also want 663 00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:13,320 Speaker 2: to remind you that good mechanics aren't expensive, they're priceless. 664 00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:19,120 Speaker 1: See it.