1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:06,680 Speaker 2: It's card proem. 3 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network podcast. This is your UFC 4 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:25,759 Speaker 3: Fight Night Vegas forty nine betting preview. Brendan Glasheen of 5 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 3: the Action Network very pleased to be joined by two 6 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 3: contributors to ensure that you will get the best analysis 7 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 3: for this coming weekend. Sean Zarillo, Action Network senior writer. 8 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:41,520 Speaker 3: He's also an MMA betting expert. Also joined by Billy Ward, 9 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 3: MMA analyst and former professional MMA fighter gentlemen. I hope 10 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 3: you're both well looking forward to doing this every Friday. 11 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 3: We have a lot to get to the main event, 12 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 3: our fight of the night, favorite underdog bets for this 13 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 3: weekend's card, favorite prop bets. Billy has insight on the 14 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 3: DFS side of things, if you're that sort of thing, 15 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 3: and also best bets to wrap up the show here 16 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,680 Speaker 3: on this UFC Fight Night Vegas forty nine preview, let's 17 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 3: dive right in, Sean, let's explore the main event. Bobby 18 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 3: Green is La Makhakiev. 19 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 2: What are your opening thoughts? 20 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, if Bobby Green wins this fight, he is a 21 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: made man for life. Taking this on ten days notice 22 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 1: after winning on a pay per view main card don't 23 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: believe he's ever beaten a ranked opponent before, and he's 24 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 1: actually the biggest underdog in UFC main event In the 25 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:34,199 Speaker 1: past five years. Anthony Smith was plus five to fifty 26 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 1: and a title fight against John Jones. Now he can 27 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 1: jump over the line against everybody at one fifty five. 28 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 1: Since he was willing to take this fight wins, it 29 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 1: probably gets a shot either for the title or against 30 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 1: Connor McGregor in a big money fight. Magachev the uncrowned 31 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 1: champion lightweight. People have considered him the best one to 32 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: fifty five in the world for the past year or so. 33 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 2: Does he deserve to. 34 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 1: Be minus nine hundred against anybody? Yeah, against some people, 35 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 1: but maybe not against Bobby because Green is some tools 36 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: to win this fight and at least make it competitive. Now, 37 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 1: this may just be a levels grappling match. If it's 38 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: minus nine hundred, he's gonna need to run through him 39 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 1: and sub him immediately in round one. Otherwise things get 40 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:15,839 Speaker 1: make it a little hairy the longer this fight goes. 41 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 1: Makachev tons of pressure, great risk control, excellent grappling, but 42 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 1: Bobby Green keeps his hands really low, good at defending takedowns, 43 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:27,240 Speaker 1: good submission defense, and he's great at boxing while moving backwards, 44 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 1: which is something that Islam hasn't really had to face 45 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: in the past. Now, Islam one thing he does do 46 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 1: really well on the feet is manage distance. Used to 47 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: be a bit more reckless. You've seen him get finished 48 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 1: in the past when he starts running around the cage, 49 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: but now he's much more composed. He's good at either 50 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 1: being all the way in or all the way out, 51 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: so no s out of control. Is range, left high kick, 52 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 1: left overhand which he can use to get an overhook 53 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:51,839 Speaker 1: and get into the clinch against the cage. Don't love 54 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:54,360 Speaker 1: this fight being in a small cage for Bobby because 55 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 1: Islam is so good with everything he does of against 56 00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 1: the fence. But that said, he's just kind of a dog, 57 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: and he makes himself a dog in every fight. And 58 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: if he's able to keep this close and get things 59 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 1: to the later stages of the fight, I think Islam 60 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 1: may be able to tire out. You know, we've seen 61 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: him tire against Armin Serukian, who is the only guy 62 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:13,920 Speaker 1: who's been able to keep it close against Islam. So 63 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: if Bobby's able to fight the hands, get back up 64 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 1: to his feet consistently it may start to wear a 65 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:22,399 Speaker 1: Mackachev eventually. So I have Bobby Green winning this fight 66 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:24,799 Speaker 1: nineteen percent of the time. I think his money line 67 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: should be closer to plus four hundred. You can take 68 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: him at plus five fifty or better. I think that's 69 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: a worthy stab. And on top of that, I think 70 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: he makes the fight competitive. I like the over one 71 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 1: and a half rounds that about minus one sixty wouldn't 72 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: really play it much past that. It's gotten steamed up 73 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 1: over the past week, gone to two and a half 74 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 1: in a lot of places. But I think he keeps 75 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: the fight competitive last at least seven minutes. If you 76 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: want to get really crazy, Bobby Green to win in 77 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: round four at plus five thousand, to win round five 78 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: at plus six thousand. I do think a good amount 79 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 1: of his wing condition is tied to Makichev gassing late 80 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: and Green perhaps bopping him when he's behind on the scorecards. 81 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 1: So that's how I see it going down. Billy, Am 82 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: I too crazy for going with Bobby Green? Or does 83 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: he have enough dog in him to make this a fight? 84 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 2: No? 85 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 4: You know, Bobby's definitely a live dog here. I think 86 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 4: he should be as you said about closer to four 87 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 4: hundred or so. I'm not looking to bet Bobby straight 88 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 4: up though. What I'm looking at is this fight to 89 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 4: go to a decision. We're seeing Makachev by decision at 90 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 4: three thirty. In the fight to go to a decision 91 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:24,239 Speaker 4: two fifty. I really don't see Bobby getting finished very easily. 92 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 2: I've got it here. 93 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 4: He hasn't been finished since it looks like twenty sixteen. 94 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 4: It was the last time anyone finished him, and that 95 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 4: was Dustin Poyer, and he hasn't been submitted since two 96 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 4: thousand and nine against Dan Low's on in Affliction, if 97 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 4: anyone remembers that promotion. So you know, Islam's best way 98 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 4: of getting the stoppage is definitely a submission, But Bobby 99 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 4: is not an easy guy to do that too. And 100 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:44,480 Speaker 4: I really like his ability to get back to his feet, 101 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 4: so I think that can extend the fight. I you know, 102 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 4: I don't see how Bobby finishes Islam unless, like you said, 103 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 4: he gases out real hard. But for it to go 104 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 4: all the way to a decision, I think that should 105 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 4: be a lot less than the plus two to fifty 106 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:56,559 Speaker 4: we're seeing. 107 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, plus three to fifty right now for it to 108 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 3: go to a decision. One thing to note on Bobby Green, 109 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 3: Folks over fourteen hundred significant strikes in UFC lightweight competition. 110 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 3: That is the most indivisional history, So he does have 111 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 3: some things on his side. But again, as Sean mentioned, 112 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 3: you can find most of his numbers. You can find 113 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 3: him at plus five seventy five on bet MGM, plus 114 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 3: six hundred on DraftKings to takedown maka Kiev. 115 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 2: So that is our. 116 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 3: Opening thought on the main event. Folks also want to get, 117 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 3: you know, tip their toes a bit, Sean into some 118 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 3: underdogs potentially. Who are what are some of your favorite 119 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 3: underdog bets on this card? 120 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going with wrong Jude. This guy's listed at 121 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 1: twenty one years old. Billy and I have debated his 122 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: actual age. He's going with some pink hair this week. 123 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:46,720 Speaker 1: This guy looks like he could be pushing thirty, not 124 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 1: twenty one. That said, I don't think that's necessarily a 125 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 1: bad thing. I think he's more in his physical prime 126 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 1: than he might appear given his the number on his 127 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 1: age that's listed. The big discrepancy in this fight for 128 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: him is size. Bajamndez has I believe six inches of 129 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 1: height and four inches of reach. He's good at using 130 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 1: his range weapons too, can probably kick him from the outside. 131 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: Probably deserving favorite, just because I generally tend to favorite 132 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: guys who are going to win minutes, and generally speaking, 133 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:16,919 Speaker 1: volume is what's going to win you the minutes. And 134 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: I think these two guys are durables, so there's a 135 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 1: good chance this go to a decision. Bajamondez wins by decision. 136 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:23,840 Speaker 1: Not really a lot of value in that number though, 137 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: and I think this could be a close fight. Rangzhu 138 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:29,480 Speaker 1: hits harder. Bajamondz keeps his head on the center line. 139 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:31,799 Speaker 1: He's a bit of a punching bag. He's very hittable. 140 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: He's willing to trade one take in for about three 141 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:38,159 Speaker 1: or four given back, So he is there to be hit, 142 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:39,840 Speaker 1: and I think it's a matter of time before he 143 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 1: gets clipped by somebody with power. He's nine a bunch 144 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 1: of takedowns at the UFC level. It's call guy tough 145 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 1: to get leverage on. That said, Rangzhu does have the 146 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 1: grappling upside here, and if he is able to get 147 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:51,919 Speaker 1: this fight to the ground, he's going to look like 148 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: a favorite for the periods of time where it is 149 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 1: on the ground. So if he's able to steal around 150 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: with a takedown, maybe steal another round with power optics. 151 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: I don't think winning a decision is out of the question. 152 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 1: But he is the guy, in my opinion, who has 153 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: more finishing upside by about ten percent, So I like 154 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:07,280 Speaker 1: him on the money line a plus one seventy. I 155 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 1: would play that down to about plus one fifty. I 156 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: also like his odds win inside the distance. Believe that 157 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 1: got that at plus six fifty. Project that closer to 158 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:18,679 Speaker 1: plus four hundred, and his submission odds plus fourteen hundred. 159 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 1: I made that line closer to plus eleven hundred. So 160 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: I would poke both the inside the distance and the 161 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 1: submission prop and I'm also taking them on the money 162 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 1: line at about plus one seventy five. 163 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 3: Billy, do you would all consider the knockout ability of 164 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 3: Baha Mundez to be a concern or are you more 165 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 3: on Sean's side. 166 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 4: I'm definitely on Sean side with this one. I think 167 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 4: how the grappling goes is going to be what decides this. 168 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 4: I've got the numbers here. It looks like Baha Moundez 169 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 4: denied twelve takedowns from Russell Roosevelt Roberts in a fight, 170 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 4: which is pretty ridiculous. But rang Zu went eight for 171 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 4: twelve across his two fights in his UFC career, so 172 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 4: there's definitely gonna be a lot of attempts. Whether Rongzhu 173 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 4: can convert those or not is going to be what 174 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 4: decides this fight. I think the smaller case helps him here. 175 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 4: He's given up a lot of reach, but there's not 176 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 4: really anywhere for Baha Mondez to run or keep the 177 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 4: distance in the smaller cage. So I see rang Zoo 178 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 4: getting inside and being able to drag him down at 179 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 4: least a couple times. Whether that's enough to win the 180 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 4: fight or steal enough points, that's gonna be what decides 181 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 4: it anything. 182 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 3: Else down here, guys on this particular one, each of 183 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 3: you just this is your favorite underdog bet for the 184 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 3: for the weekend. 185 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 4: I've got another one that I was gonna throw in 186 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 4: there for it. Yeah, Arman Petrojian, He's line is dropped 187 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 4: from one fifty to about one thirty five. 188 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 2: I still see some value here. He looks like a. 189 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 4: Very strong striker. I watched his Contender series about and 190 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 4: he's facing Gregory Rodriguez, who should have the grappling advantage, 191 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 4: but Patrocian was able to get back up to his 192 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 4: feet pretty much immediately every time he was taken down 193 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 4: in his Contender series about He also had most of 194 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 4: his pre UFC bouts in Russia against a ton of 195 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 4: really tough wrestlers. He's training in Daugastan with you know, 196 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 4: Habib and all those guys. So I think his wrestling 197 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 4: and it's get back to his feet ability or at 198 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:56,080 Speaker 4: least going to give him enough of a chance to 199 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 4: make this a stand up affair. So I like him 200 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 4: at plus one thirty five. I bet that is long 201 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 4: as we can get plus money. He's also plus two 202 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 4: hundred at DraftKings to finish by TKO or KO. That's 203 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 4: probably where most of his win condition is coming from. 204 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,439 Speaker 4: I don't really see him winning a grappling affair, so 205 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:12,679 Speaker 4: I'm going to sprinkle a little bit on the PKO 206 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 4: prop as well. 207 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 3: All Right, once again we're getting you ready for UFC 208 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 3: Fight Night, Vegas forty nine. Moving on to the guys 209 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 3: Fight of the night, armand Serukian taking on Joel Alvarez, 210 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 3: and you can find odds, of course at whatever book 211 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 3: you'd please, and right now on bet MGM, you can 212 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 3: get Serukian at minus two twenty five Alvarez at plus 213 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 3: one to eighty on the money line for this particular fight. Sean, 214 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 3: why does this fight in particular stand out to you 215 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 3: aside from the main event and what is your favorite 216 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 3: way to play it? 217 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 2: Yeah? 218 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: These are two big lightweights, and I the reason I 219 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 1: love this fight is I think either one or both 220 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: of them are future title contenders, two very high upside prospects. 221 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 1: I think they're at the bottom of the lightweight rankings. 222 00:09:59,440 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 2: Now. 223 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 1: This is a pretty binary matchup to me in the 224 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: sense that Alvarez is the bigger finisher and Serukian is 225 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 1: a much better control, point fighter. Alvarez also a bit 226 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 1: of a berserker. He comes out crazy and if he 227 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: can't get the finish, I would expect him to start 228 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 1: to fade. So Serugian should be able to take over 229 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 1: the second and third rounds pretty convincingly, I'd say the 230 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:26,559 Speaker 1: majority of the time, But the first five minutes are 231 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 1: going to be really interesting because, like I talked about 232 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 1: with my last dog, rang Zu, smaller fighter, but I 233 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: think the more dangerous fighter. 234 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 2: Here. 235 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: You have Joel Alvarez, who is a much bigger fighter, 236 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 1: and I think by far the more dangerous fighter. And 237 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:41,719 Speaker 1: when you have that combination, you really have to take 238 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 1: a look at finish props. Six inches taller, I believe 239 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 1: a five inch reach advantage, and in the cage, this 240 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 1: guy looks like a welterweight fighting at lightweight. Some questions 241 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 1: about whether he can make the one hundred and fifty 242 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 1: five pounds limit. I don't think it's going to be an. 243 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 2: Issue this time. 244 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: Otherwise, the UFC isn't going to let him fight at 245 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 1: lightweight again, probably now. He tends to get a lot 246 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: of hate because of the way he fights and the 247 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:05,199 Speaker 1: way he finished his fights. He's not a big minut winner, 248 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 1: but he's just looking to finish you. He comes right 249 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 1: at you with knees and elbows, makes the most out 250 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 1: of his long limbs. He accepts takedowns. He doesn't try 251 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: to stop takedowns. He accepts takedowns because his guard game 252 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 1: is so dangerous. The way he switches off between arm 253 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 1: bars and triangles. He'll put you in a triangle and 254 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 1: start hammering you with elbows to the top of the head. 255 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: The guy is in absolute freaking terms of his size, 256 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: and he's incredible at using all of those tools now Suruken. 257 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 1: We've seen him go against high level BJJ guys like 258 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:37,680 Speaker 1: Daby Homos, survive perfectly on the ground. Never really was 259 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 1: an actual danger of getting submitted. He was in some 260 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: spots where I was questioning whether something was going to 261 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: happen to him, but he never really showed himself to 262 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 1: be in danger. I think he's a tremendous fighter. Had 263 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: a very competitive fight on short notice Islam Makachev took 264 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: Makachev down, so he's one of the best grapplers in division. 265 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 1: He might already be the second best lightweight in the 266 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 1: division behind Magachev. We don't really know. I think Mateya's 267 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:02,439 Speaker 1: Gamrock can insert his name into that conversation. But Alvarez 268 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 1: may not be the best matchup for Syricine just in 269 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 1: terms of how he pursues the fight early. I do 270 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 1: think there's a chance that he's able to get Syricine 271 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:12,079 Speaker 1: out of there. So I show value on his money line, 272 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: I projected it closer to plus one sixty. I show 273 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 1: value on the Surricine decision prop. I projected that at 274 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 1: plus one thirty five. We'll get to my favorite way 275 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: to play this fight in a minute because it does 276 00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: fall under my best props for this card. But I 277 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 1: think Alvarez is definitely live dog, and if you're looking 278 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:29,559 Speaker 1: at the money line side, look it's come all the 279 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 1: way down from over plus three hundred to now sitting 280 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 1: in that plus one eighty range. I definitely think he's 281 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: been taking money consistently, and I think it's probably the 282 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 1: sharper money too, So Alvarez would be my side in 283 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 1: terms of a money line, but I do think there's 284 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 1: a better way to play this fight. I'm curious to 285 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:44,079 Speaker 1: hear Billy's thoughts too. 286 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm leaning towards Alvarez on the money line, but 287 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 4: my real interest in this one is from the DFS side. 288 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:54,199 Speaker 4: As Sean pointed out, Alvarez likes to accept the takedowns, 289 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 4: so that can rack up a lot of points for sorry, 290 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 4: you can if he can end up getting the finish 291 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 4: or even really just any win able to get three, 292 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 4: four or five takedowns. You know, takedowns are worth a 293 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 4: lot of points with DFS scoring, so that's a big one. 294 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:08,960 Speaker 4: And Sewn also pointed out Alvarez is looking for a finish, 295 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 4: so for a guy I believe seventy three hundred on 296 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 4: draft games. 297 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 2: Let me look that up real quick. Seventy one billion, 298 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 2: seventy one. I was close. 299 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 4: He's the cheapest fighter who's odds or anything better than 300 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 4: plus two ninety. We definitely need to find some cheap 301 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 4: fights in our lineup this time, and for a guy 302 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 4: who has a real legitimate shot at getting a finish, 303 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 4: that's a really nice combination. And with the line line movement, 304 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 4: we've seen DraftKings release the salaries when Alvarez was about 305 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:34,200 Speaker 4: two thirty five, and he's all the way down to 306 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 4: one eighty five, So that's. 307 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 2: Just pure value right there. 308 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 4: You know, he's not the safest pick, but for GPPs 309 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 4: and tournaments, we need to get guys like that who 310 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:43,839 Speaker 4: have a shot at getting a lot of points for 311 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 4: a little bit of salary, because there's some really expensive 312 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 4: fighters we like this week, and Alvarez. 313 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 2: Is a really good one. 314 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 4: And then on the other side of it, you know, 315 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 4: Sarukin ends up with the fight or winning the fight 316 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 4: or getting the finish, he should probably end up with 317 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 4: a lot of points either. 318 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 2: So getting this one right is going to be crucial 319 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 2: for a lot of lineups. 320 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, Saruki, And one thing that Sean brought up he 321 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:05,319 Speaker 3: absorbs a ton of strikes one point four significant strikes 322 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 3: per minute. And on the other side, Alvarez both have 323 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 3: very solid records overall in MMA, both four and one 324 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 3: in UFC. Alvarez is are adult nineteen of his career 325 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:17,079 Speaker 3: victories by stoppage this year, so let's not waste any 326 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 3: time he go over the guys fight. 327 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 2: Of the night. 328 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 3: So Sean, please share with us how you are attacking 329 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 3: that particular matchup in the prop market. 330 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I project out wing conditions for every fighter. 331 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 1: You just comparing the money line to the percentage of 332 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: win condition. So Alvarez you mentioned no decision wins in 333 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 1: his career, and goodle I think he might have one 334 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: decision loss, but regardless, I projected to finish at eighty 335 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 1: five percent of his wing condition. That would put the 336 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 1: implied odds at about plus two to h five for 337 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 1: his finish propers win inside the distance odds. The market 338 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 1: actually has them closer to sixty five percent. You can 339 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 1: find a plus three hundred DraftKings. There's about a twenty 340 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 1: percent discrepancy. And how I rate his finished chances if 341 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 1: he wins versus how the market rates his finished chances 342 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 1: if he wins, So I love that plus three hundred 343 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 1: on Alvarez to win inside the distance. Definitely prefer that 344 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 1: to his money line. I think hitting his round one 345 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: odds at plus six fifty is also a must, regardless 346 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 1: of whether you want to play the other bet. I 347 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 1: think that's his most likely wink condition is an early finish. 348 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 1: He is going to gas out Serroukin a solid live 349 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 1: bet after round one for sure. Decision prop not really 350 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: sure because Alvarez may tire late and get finished himself. 351 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: So that's my favorite way to play that fight. And 352 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: I'm also going to give out another violence prop. I 353 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 1: know Billy said that he likes armed Petrojian on the 354 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: money line. I actually like the prop on Gregory Rodriguez 355 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 1: to finish him by submission plus four to sixty at 356 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: FanDuel projected that closer to plus three thirty five. I 357 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 1: think there's some value on Rodriguez's submission prop. Portrojian always 358 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: gives up takedowns early. Rodriguez has some good ways of 359 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 1: getting the fight to the ground, whether with his wrestling 360 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 1: or his judo. He's able to take the back pretty 361 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:52,960 Speaker 1: quickly at times, so if por Trojian isn't able to 362 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 1: pop up. I do think he's going to get submitted 363 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 1: in the first round, and if not, again Portrojian another 364 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 1: solid live bet after round one. This is a terrific 365 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: card for live betting. There's about six different spots that 366 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: I'm targeting to fade Cardio of fighters who fade after 367 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 1: round one. 368 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 2: All right, Billy, how. 369 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 3: About yourself a favorite prop bet and maybe some Maybe 370 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 3: you have one or two that is it longer odds 371 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 3: or one that you feel really good about. 372 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm the longer odds. I'm gonna go with Bobby 373 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 4: Green to win a decision. I'm seeing plus fourteen hundred here. 374 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 4: I'm kind of piggybacking off Sean's take about makashev tiring out. 375 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 2: I just don't think Bobby's able to put him away. 376 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 2: I think he's tough enough that he can hang in there. 377 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 4: You know, it's gonna be tough for him to find 378 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 4: another round early to go with winnings round four and 379 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 4: five there, But I think he's got a lot better 380 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 4: than a one and fourteen chance of doing so. And 381 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 4: that's the odds that we're seeing right now. And then 382 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 4: one that I feel really good about. I really like 383 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 4: the opener between Alti, Marino and Hernandez to end inside 384 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 4: the distance. 385 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 2: It's currently plus one ten right now. 386 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 4: Which is actually one of the fights that Vegas thinks 387 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 4: is most likely to go all the way. But these 388 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 4: are two debuting fighters. They're gonna be looking to put 389 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 4: on a show. Both guys throw a ton of volume. 390 00:16:57,800 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 4: Both guys are kind of sloppy in their Contender series, 391 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,360 Speaker 4: so they look pretty hittable. We got the small cage, 392 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:04,360 Speaker 4: a Sean always likes to point out, So I think 393 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 4: that one at plus one ten. As long as that 394 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:07,719 Speaker 4: one's plus money, I'm going to be betting that one 395 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 4: to end inside the distance. 396 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 3: All right, Billy, We'll stay right with you because you 397 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 3: want to get into DFS, and there are some big 398 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 3: contests available all over the place, DraftKings and Fan Duel 399 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 3: wherever you'd like to get your contests. DraftKings has a 400 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:21,919 Speaker 3: media couple of MEATI contests you'd like to get involved in. 401 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,640 Speaker 3: We've already touched on some salaries for some of our fighters, 402 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 3: but more specifically Billy, when we discuss DFS and intertwining 403 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:34,400 Speaker 3: it with UFC or some guys that could be viable 404 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 3: for cash games, because that's something that you'd like to 405 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 3: target and discussion here. 406 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, obviously, the biggest thing with cash games 407 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 4: is you almost always just want to jam in both 408 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 4: fighters in the five round fight, assuming there's only one. 409 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,880 Speaker 4: Markachev has such long odds of winning, it's really hard 410 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 4: to see him not at least putting up a reasonable 411 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 4: set reasonable points per salary here. And Bobby Green is 412 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 4: just so cheap that he doesn't really need to do 413 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:57,439 Speaker 4: a ton I think you pointed out he has the 414 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 4: most significant. 415 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 2: Strikes in UFC lightweight history. 416 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 4: You know he can get pay off that sixty seven 417 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:04,119 Speaker 4: hundred salary pretty easily. 418 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 2: Just jump in. 419 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 3: If you do Roster Green, you're talking eighty six hundred 420 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 3: bucks average remaining salary per player, So you still have 421 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 3: a lot of flexibility if that is a starting point. 422 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 4: Right, And that's usually the strategy behind going with both 423 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 4: guys in the main event, because they always add their 424 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,120 Speaker 4: salaries up to sixteen two hundred on DraftKings, and that's 425 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:23,920 Speaker 4: a little bit less than the average salary you have 426 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 4: per fighter. So just getting ten rounds of fight for 427 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 4: less than the average salary is usually going to be. 428 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:29,359 Speaker 2: A good move. 429 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 4: I think the biggest key to this slate though, is 430 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 4: finding a cheaper fighter or two that can put up 431 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 4: some points, because we really want to get both Mahitchev 432 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,440 Speaker 4: and Brahimai in there, just because they both have such 433 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 4: good shots at winning their fights inside the distance, or 434 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:45,119 Speaker 4: just in general. 435 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 2: I'm putting up a lot of points. 436 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 4: So on that side, I like wrong Jew as Sean 437 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 4: pointed out, I really like Alvarez. Those are probably the 438 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 4: two I'm looking the most at, and then Arman Petrosian 439 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 4: are the three on the cheaper side that I'm going 440 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 4: to be looking for. You probably only want one of 441 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 4: those guys in a cash game between Rangzhu, Petrosian and Alvarez. 442 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 3: What about gppiece strategy change at all? 443 00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:08,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean with the GPP, the main event is 444 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:11,879 Speaker 4: going to be interesting on this one. We need Makachev 445 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 4: to put up a lot of points to pay off 446 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 4: his salary. From a GPP standpoint, I don't know if 447 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 4: he gets there if he gets an early submission. He 448 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 4: has some submission wins where he put up one hundred 449 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 4: and two hundred and seven points, so we almost want 450 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,200 Speaker 4: that one to go to a decision. For that we've 451 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 4: had three cards in a row where neither main event 452 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 4: fighter ended up in the optimal lineup or the GPP 453 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 4: winning lineup. I could see that happening again here, particularly 454 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:36,400 Speaker 4: if it's a quicker fight that Mahichev wins. So that's 455 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 4: the biggest change, and then we're just looking for finishes. 456 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 4: Beyond that, We've got a couple balanced fights in terms 457 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:45,120 Speaker 4: of salary with Serkonov and Turman and Hernandez and Alta 458 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 4: Marino that I think both have pretty good shots ending 459 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 4: inside the distance. I don't know, you know, it's hard 460 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 4: to pick which guy's gonna win. Those are both pretty balanced. 461 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 4: Do you have any opinion on that, Sean. 462 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, I wanted to comment on your your three cash 463 00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,040 Speaker 1: game plays in which one I'd choose actually first, so 464 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 1: to me, Alvarez and Petrojian, if those guys lose, they're 465 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,400 Speaker 1: probably not going to score many points. Alvarez gets stuck 466 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 1: on his back, doesn't really do much when he's losing fights, 467 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 1: and Petrojian might just get submitted immediately or knocked out 468 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 1: on the feet. So I don't really see those guys 469 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:16,879 Speaker 1: scoring I would say wrong, Ju, just by nature of 470 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 1: the fact that that fight's going to go to a 471 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 1: decision and maybe a little more high volume may g 472 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,479 Speaker 1: it some takedowns two. Even if he loses, he's probably 473 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,919 Speaker 1: gonna have a safer floor than those other two guys. 474 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 1: So that's where I go in terms of where I'd 475 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: be looking for GPP plays myself. There's two female fights 476 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 1: on the card and buying large. The female fighters tend 477 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:39,879 Speaker 1: to be under owned in DK or FanDuel tournaments, and 478 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 1: the one in particular between Pasqual and Nonaz the rare 479 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: over under one and a half in a WMMA fight. 480 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,159 Speaker 1: I think I'm probably gonna end up having one or 481 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:50,159 Speaker 1: the other in all my lineups. None is live for 482 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 1: a round one knockout, but she also has terrible cardio. 483 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 1: Another live spot where I'm gonna be looking on Puscal 484 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 1: and I think she's very live take out a finish 485 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 1: on the ground. So either or between pass Juniaz, I 486 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,680 Speaker 1: think are good spots to kind of differentiate yourself in 487 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: the field, especially when you only have eleven fights on 488 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 1: a card, I need to find ways to be unique. 489 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,640 Speaker 3: I'm interested with Pasqual UFC debut at featherweights. That should 490 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,640 Speaker 3: be interesting to follow as the night goes along. All right, 491 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 3: before we wrap up this version of the Action Network podcast, 492 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 3: the UFC Fight Night Vegas forty nine Betting Preview, let's 493 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,919 Speaker 3: get to our best bets before we say goodbye. This 494 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,080 Speaker 3: can be anything, guys, money line, prop a total. You 495 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 3: can talk about something you already did, but if you 496 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 3: have anything else to add, each of you give one 497 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 3: one bet your best bet for the weekend. 498 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 2: Billy will go to you first. 499 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna head over to prize picks, you know. 500 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 4: Being a DFS guy, I like to look at the 501 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:42,359 Speaker 4: stat lines and the stat markets. My favorite one right now, 502 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 4: and it's jumped up from two point five to three, 503 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,119 Speaker 4: is the market Chev takedowns. In the main event, they 504 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 4: headed at two point five. Now it's three. I think 505 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 4: he goes well over that. I could see five, six, seven, 506 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,639 Speaker 4: just due to Bobby Green's durability and his ability to 507 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 4: get back to his feet. So that seems like a 508 00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 4: fairly I don't want to say easy pick because Marketchev 509 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 4: can put him away or that's the risk on that one, 510 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 4: but I think it's far more likely than that the 511 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 4: Green survives a couple of takedowns. There's a lot more 512 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,439 Speaker 4: ways to win this one than there is to lose it. 513 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 4: He could get taken down once per round to get 514 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 4: stuck there, and you're still winning the over three props. 515 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,159 Speaker 2: All right, how about you, Sean Zilla. 516 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Terrence McKinney against Faris zm Now. 517 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 1: I'm not going to take him on the money line 518 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:19,920 Speaker 1: because I think there's a better way to play them. 519 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: I did actually bet his money line the first time 520 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 1: this fight was booked ended up getting canceled due to 521 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 1: positive COVID test rescheduled, and I'm glad it did because 522 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 1: I'm approaching this fight slightly differently. In my opinion, there's 523 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 1: much more value on McKinney's odds to win inside the 524 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 1: distance than on his money line. It's a very similar 525 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 1: situation to how I'm playing the Joe Alverrez fight. Projective 526 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 1: finishes about eighty five percent of mckinnie's win condition. The 527 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 1: market odds are putting it closer to sixty five percent. 528 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: So based on my projection, I have him winning inside 529 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 1: the distance forty four percent of the time. The market 530 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 1: at plus two hundred is giving you a thirty three 531 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 1: percent implied probability. That's an eleven percent projected edge. I 532 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: think plus two hundred is a phenomenal number in Terrence. 533 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 1: McKinney doesn't really have a complete MA game. We haven't 534 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 1: really seen him past the six or seven minute mark 535 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:05,560 Speaker 1: in any fight. It's not really sure what his cardio 536 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 1: is going to look like late Zam another potential live 537 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,680 Speaker 1: betting spot. As I mentioned, there's six on this card 538 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 1: that I really like, but ten of eleven finishes for 539 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 1: McKinney have come inside of round one, so he's inside 540 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,160 Speaker 1: the distance side of the plus two hundred his round 541 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 1: one odds at plus four hundred. I think those are 542 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: both very obvious plays. And then he could always look 543 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,640 Speaker 1: to pivot to ZM live after round one because he's 544 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 1: a great kickboxer, great at keeping range. And as McKinney's 545 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 1: pressure starts to wilt, he should start to take over 546 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 1: the fight. But he doesn't deal with pressure himself well early, 547 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 1: there's a good chance he gets out of there very quickly. 548 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 3: How about McKinny too, has earned all eleven of his 549 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 3: career victories by stoppage, so we'll see if he can 550 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 3: keep it going for Sean. I think that's going to 551 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,439 Speaker 3: do it for us today. Gentlemen, great stuff looking forward 552 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 3: to watching the fights take place over the course of 553 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 3: the weekend. I want to thank both Billy Ward and 554 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 3: Seawan Zarilla, both contributors at Action Network. You can find 555 00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 3: Sean over on Action Network. He is a senior writer 556 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,919 Speaker 3: also MMA betting expert. Billy Ward, former pro MMA fighter, 557 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 3: also an analyst contributing at Action Network. Brendan Glasheen saying 558 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 3: so long, thanks for tuning into the Action Network podcast 559 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 3: this UFC Fight Night Vegas forty nine betting preview. Best 560 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,640 Speaker 3: of luck with your picks, your lineups on the DFS side, 561 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 3: and we'll catch you next Friday. We'll be joining you 562 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 3: every Friday to get you set for the big part 563 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:23,919 Speaker 3: and all of our favorite picks and analysis. 564 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:24,680 Speaker 2: We'll catch you next time.