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Speaker 2: Let's turn our attention to the media space. Lot's going
Speaker 2: on out there. Spotify reported some earnings, but we want
Speaker 2: to lead with Warner Brothers Discovery.
Speaker 3: That MNA sag can continues to play out today.
Speaker 2: Paramount kind of amended its bid to add some more
Speaker 2: cash funding for a termination fee, instituting a ticking option
Speaker 2: here for this thing. Keitha Ranganath and she file follows
Speaker 2: this as the media analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Keith, let's
Speaker 2: start with Warner Brothers Discovery here. I'm still surprised that
Speaker 2: Powermount has not raised its bid from thirty dollars. That
Speaker 2: are making changes and maybe some enhancement mins to the offer,
Speaker 2: but not raising the bid in general.
Speaker 3: What do you make of it?
Speaker 4: Yeah, still playing the cat and mouse game here, Paul.
Speaker 4: They did stop short of actually raising the offer, but yes,
Speaker 4: you're right, they are offering now this almost one dollar
Speaker 4: and eighty cents per share to cover the termination fee
Speaker 4: with the Netflix deal, as well as some of the
Speaker 4: financing costs, and then of course, as you just mentioned,
Speaker 4: the ticking feed. I don't know though, if this will
Speaker 4: necessarily fly with the Warner Brothers Discovery boat. I think
Speaker 4: this is just Paramount exhausting all of its options before
Speaker 4: you know, they actually raise the bid. But in my mind,
Speaker 4: what this signals is, yes, they did stop short of
Speaker 4: actually raising that thirty dollars bid, but I do think
Speaker 4: that the signals that they are willing to kind of
Speaker 4: go back to the table and probably raise that bid.
Speaker 4: As you know, kind of this thing keeps dragging on.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it does feel a little bit silly given that
Speaker 5: David Ellison had said that thirty dollars a share was
Speaker 5: not their best and final offer, So let's let's kind
Speaker 5: of get to it. That begs the question, Keithan, this
Speaker 5: is a dumb question. Do they have the money to
Speaker 5: raise bid?
Speaker 4: They do, But the question is really going to be
Speaker 4: what happens after Scarlet. So you know, right now we're
Speaker 4: looking at a company with the thirty dollars per share bid.
Speaker 4: We're looking at a company that's going to be levered
Speaker 4: about six and a half times, they raise that bid
Speaker 4: to let's say thirty two, thirty three, thirty four, whatever
Speaker 4: the number is. You're going to look at a company
Speaker 4: that's value that's going to be levered at about seven
Speaker 4: to maybe seven point three times. What happens with those
Speaker 4: dangerous levels of debt is, you know, it just becomes
Speaker 4: a distraction. You're not going to be able to invest
Speaker 4: in growth, You're just going to be focused on deleveraging.
Speaker 4: This is exactly what we've seen, you know, happen many
Speaker 4: a time in the media world. It's happened actually to
Speaker 4: Warner Brothers Discovery itself. You know, they had over fifty
Speaker 4: billion dollars in debt and the only thing that they
Speaker 4: were hyper focused on is Okay, how do we keep
Speaker 4: you know, reducing that dead pile. And so the biggest
Speaker 4: worry is that's what's going to happen to Paramount. So, yes,
Speaker 4: they could get their hands on this absolutely world class asset,
Speaker 4: but yes, leverage becomes this huge, huge headache for them.
Speaker 2: If any sense of timing, it doesn't seem like either
Speaker 2: side feels.
Speaker 3: The need to, I don't know, be aggressive here.
Speaker 4: So February twentieth. That's what that's the date that paramounts
Speaker 4: a proxy bid actually expires. It was initially Jan twenty
Speaker 4: at the extended to February twentieth, So that's the thirty
Speaker 4: dollars hostile bid. That's the date of expiring. Remember, Paul
Speaker 4: and Scarlett, only about seven percent of Warner Brothers shares
Speaker 4: two date have been tendered at that thirty dollars bit,
Speaker 4: so everybody's still kind of holding out for that higher
Speaker 4: per share offer.
Speaker 5: I think that tells you everything you need to know
Speaker 5: right now. Then Februy twenty eight is the day we'll
Speaker 5: watch for Geita. Let's also talk about Spotify here. It
Speaker 5: added a record number of users thirty eight million users
Speaker 5: to seven hundred and fifty one million, topping analyst estimates.
Speaker 5: How much more room is there to raise prices because
Speaker 5: increased price prices in the US was certainly part of
Speaker 5: that story. And it looks like consumers continue to sign up.
Speaker 4: Conzuomer's continue to sign up. Yes, we're seeing Spotify and
Speaker 4: if you just look at the subscriber trajectory scuddled over
Speaker 4: the past few years, they've added about twenty eight to
Speaker 4: thirty million subscribers every year, and there's just no signs
Speaker 4: of slowing down. They keep adding a record number of subscribers,
Speaker 4: record number of active users quarter after quarter. So there's
Speaker 4: just so much of appetite for this platform for music
Speaker 4: in general, for audio in general, So that is definitely
Speaker 4: good news. You talked about pricing power. I think, you know,
Speaker 4: just with kind of the user interface that Spotify offers,
Speaker 4: with all of the content that it offers in terms
Speaker 4: of breadth and depth of content, and as they keep
Speaker 4: adding more enhancements, they do have a lot more leverage
Speaker 4: to keep raising those prices. So you know, they've made
Speaker 4: a pretty bold move by raising their prices a little
Speaker 4: bit earlier this year. So now now it is thirteen
Speaker 4: dollars for an individual plan in the US. That was
Speaker 4: a little bit above the rest of their competitors. But
Speaker 4: then we just saw a few days ago Amazon Music
Speaker 4: also kind of raising prices, which then I think just
Speaker 4: speaks to the audio industry in general. I mean, everybody
Speaker 4: there has a lot of pricing power, but I think
Speaker 4: Spotify definitely has the most, just kind of again given
Speaker 4: the fact that they are a best in class product.
Speaker 3: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Speaker 5: We have markets in the green right now, and the
Speaker 5: NASAC is among them. We've had seen this decoupling between
Speaker 5: big tech and the rest of the stock market, but
Speaker 5: big tech is back in the green once again, and
Speaker 5: the big news really is Alphabet and all the hyperscalars.
Speaker 5: It's going to need about one hundred and eighty five
Speaker 5: billion dollars in terms of capex over the this year,
Speaker 5: and so it has to raise a lot of money
Speaker 5: in the debt market. Caroline Hyde is the co anchor
Speaker 5: of b Tech and Caroline Alphed has had a banner
Speaker 5: twenty four hours looking to raise almost thirty two billion
Speaker 5: dollars or a pretty much to raise thirty two billion
Speaker 5: dollars in less than twenty four hours.
Speaker 6: I know we've got dollar denominated debt, you've got sterling,
Speaker 6: you've got Swiss frank and what's extraordinary is the extent
Speaker 6: of demand. They could have sold way more the thirty
Speaker 6: two billion dollars. They had extraordinary, more than one hundred
Speaker 6: billion dollars worth of orders for the upsized twenty billion
Speaker 6: dollar US sale. We're ranging from you know, three year
Speaker 6: to ten is out to as much as thirty year,
Speaker 6: thirty two year. But then you're looking to the UK,
Speaker 6: they're selling one billion pounds of my great British sterling
Speaker 6: in one hundred year bonds, a century bond. Now you
Speaker 6: haven't seen a tech company do that since motor rollers.
Speaker 7: It's the nineties.
Speaker 6: And look this, it's such a vote confidence. Yes, you
Speaker 6: can say, is Google going to be here in one
Speaker 6: hundred years time? A lot of these companies pay off
Speaker 6: the debt well ahead of one hundred years. Disney they
Speaker 6: issued back in the nineties, they paid it off in
Speaker 6: the in twenty twenties. But really what this is a resolute,
Speaker 6: clear signal of is that people believe in Alphabet, they
Speaker 6: believe in their ability to pay for the AI infrastructure,
Speaker 6: They believe in that one hundred and eighty five billion
Speaker 6: of spending in capex is a wise decision, and that
Speaker 6: they are going to be an AI winner.
Speaker 3: More across the.
Speaker 6: Board, we're seeing a record Swiss frame issuance. You haven't
Speaker 6: seen a market been tapped to this extent and again
Speaker 6: a record amount of demand for it.
Speaker 2: Rob Schiffman covers the tech from the credit size for
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 8: T says, the windows wide open for these companies. They
Speaker 8: can keep coming to the market, which is amazing for
Speaker 8: them and they are. We also got a piece of
Speaker 8: news Thaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing said their January sales worth their
Speaker 8: fastest clip in months. So if you needed, I guess
Speaker 8: another data point supporting this continuing AI spending, there you go.
Speaker 6: Yeah, thirty seven percent increase year on year. In terms
Speaker 6: of yes, it was probably a bit of a slower year.
Speaker 6: It's a slower January previous year because of the way
Speaker 6: that the vacations and holidays fell in China. But TSMC
Speaker 6: is the chip manufacturer to the world in Nvidia Apple.
Speaker 6: If you think about a consumer electronics, if you're thinking
Speaker 6: about the AI data center story, this is the company
Speaker 6: that has been dining out on it. The shares are
Speaker 6: at a record when you're looking at them entire one
Speaker 6: or indeed on their ADRs trading abroad, and it just
Speaker 6: signals that the AI bubble that we're so concerned about
Speaker 6: the idea that everyone's just passing money amongst themselves. There
Speaker 6: is real orders going in from on a fundamental basis
Speaker 6: for this particular chip maker.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and it's the hardware maker TSMC. Let's talk about
Speaker 5: other hardware companies because they are paying up for memory chips,
Speaker 5: and those memory chip makers, some are winning, some maybe
Speaker 5: are under more pressure, and investors are trying to discern
Speaker 5: whose best place. How are you thinking about this?
Speaker 6: I think a lot of people are trying to understand
Speaker 6: where is the cost pressure. The cost pressure is for
Speaker 6: those electronics companies. Apple has more control over its supply chain,
Speaker 6: its own own chips, but still, more broadly, if you're
Speaker 6: looking at an index of electronics makers, like thinking of
Speaker 6: the Nintendos of this world, they've sold off about ten
Speaker 6: percent in the beginning of this year. Meanwhile, the memory
Speaker 6: makers are up about one hundred and sixty percent or so.
Speaker 6: We're seeing Samsung being the winner here, you're seeing the
Speaker 6: likes of Micron. You're seeing Yes, there is turbenance day
Speaker 6: in day out, but more broadly it has been up
Speaker 6: and to the right for these memory makers because not
Speaker 6: only is there necessary to put them into your hardware
Speaker 6: and your electronics but really the ferocious demand to put
Speaker 6: them in AI data centers. Remember this is high bandwidth
Speaker 6: memory that everyone's been going on about. The hk Heinex
Speaker 6: has been winning in for Skhinex, for example, over in Korea. Well,
Speaker 6: because there's so much demand there and it's so much
Speaker 6: more profitable for them, they're having to sort of put
Speaker 6: their boring, bog standard memory chips that you want in
Speaker 6: your devices to the back burner, and it's really hurting
Speaker 6: these companies.
Speaker 3: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up. Care
Speaker 3: for this.
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Speaker 5: Let's get to some more corporate earnings, because we are
Speaker 5: knee deep in earning season. We're past the big tech
Speaker 5: companies and now we're really focused on the companies that
Speaker 5: make up this US economy. Companies like Has, the toymaker.
Speaker 5: The shares are up more than seven percent right now.
Speaker 5: Lindsay Dutch is joining us. She is the consumer Hardline
Speaker 5: Senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and Lindsay. This earnings report
Speaker 5: shows it had a decent fourth quarter revenue and earnings
Speaker 5: for share beat, but the guidance the outlook was seen
Speaker 5: as fairly conservative, yet investors seem to be rewarding the
Speaker 5: Stock's the what's the story here for Hasbro?
Speaker 9: Hice Garlet, thanks for having me. So the story for
Speaker 9: Hasbro is, you know, the result in twenty five, including
Speaker 9: the fourth quarter, is really being driven by their Wizard
Speaker 9: of the Coast digital gaming segment. That that segment has
Speaker 9: been growing rapidly forty five percent on the year, sixty
Speaker 9: percent I think for Magic of the Gathering in the quarter.
Speaker 9: So just tremendous growth coming out of that brand, better
Speaker 9: than expected, and that unit is really going to carry
Speaker 9: the growth in twenty twenty six. The outlook for the
Speaker 9: consumer products with their toy segment is still kind of weak,
Speaker 9: so it's really coming out of that digital gaming segment.
Speaker 9: But I think investors are pleased with the outlook there
Speaker 9: just because they're lapping very difficult comps. So to see
Speaker 9: solid growth in twenty six coming out of that, it
Speaker 9: was a good surprise.
Speaker 3: What's the competitive landscape out there? Hasbro Mattel others. How's
Speaker 3: that playing out.
Speaker 9: Yeah, So we get matel results later today and we'll
Speaker 9: have to see how that goes. It was a very
Speaker 9: challenging twenty twenty five, you know, with the tariffs, we
Speaker 9: had retailers delaying the holiday orders and that really threw
Speaker 9: a wrench into the entire year for these toymakers. Hasbro
Speaker 9: did report, you know, a plus seven percent sales growth
Speaker 9: in the fourth quarter for consumer products.
Speaker 7: That was the first quarter of growth and quite some time.
Speaker 9: They do expect toy growth in twenty twenty six, but
Speaker 9: it could be low single digits.
Speaker 7: You know, there's a lot of headwinds.
Speaker 9: You know, we just saw you know, disappointing retailer sales
Speaker 9: for December, so there's a lot of uncertainty about consumers
Speaker 9: out there and a rebound in that category. And we
Speaker 9: should hear more from Mattel, you know that they're the
Speaker 9: dominant player in dolls.
Speaker 7: So we'll heal more later today.
Speaker 5: Lindsay, what about Tariff's Is this something that Hasbro has
Speaker 5: figured out and it's no longer something that leaves its
Speaker 5: earnings to be kind of unreliable and they've kind of
Speaker 5: smoothed things out.
Speaker 9: So it definitely affected the year, so about forty million
Speaker 9: dollars in the fourth quarter. A headwind for margin there,
Speaker 9: especially on that consumer products segment, so that margin did
Speaker 9: decline year over year, which was a disappointment.
Speaker 7: It's certainly going to be a headwind.
Speaker 9: For profitability at least in the first half, and comps
Speaker 9: will get easier in the second half. But Hasbro did
Speaker 9: note that, you know, much of the cost savings program
Speaker 9: that they're working on and other supply chain efficiencies, they
Speaker 9: were able to offset a significant portion of that cost.
Speaker 9: So that is a good sign, but there's still a
Speaker 9: little bit of a headwind for the next two quarters.
Speaker 2: I'm just looking at the FA function on the Bloomberg terminal,
Speaker 2: gives me all the financial analysism. Boy, the operating income
Speaker 2: profit for the Wizards of the Coast and the digital
Speaker 2: segment is huge, whereas the profitability of their regular toy
Speaker 2: business not so much. Is a company just throwing all
Speaker 2: the resources into their digital stuff?
Speaker 3: Is that the strategy?
Speaker 9: So they have definitely been pushing for several years now
Speaker 9: to become a bigger player in that digital world, but
Speaker 9: also really to become known for that. So I would say,
Speaker 9: you know, one of Hasbro's big brands, Monopoly that that's
Speaker 9: what many people know that the company for is that
Speaker 9: traditional Monopoly board game. But they are pushing into this
Speaker 9: world of digital games. You know, they want to be
Speaker 9: valued as such. And I will say, you know, they
Speaker 9: do have a digital version of Monopoly Monopoly Go, and
Speaker 9: that has done very very well over the past couple
Speaker 9: of years. It continues to surprise, including in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 9: So they're definitely moving in that direction. But that toy
Speaker 9: segment consumer products, you know, still is pretty large. It
Speaker 9: was still around fifty percent of revenue for twenty five.
Speaker 9: I do think that will that mix will come down
Speaker 9: over time, but it's still a big piece of their
Speaker 9: business that they can't ignore.
Speaker 10: Lindsay.
Speaker 5: I also noticed that in this latest earning support, they
Speaker 5: announced a one billion dollar stock buyback authorization. I believe
Speaker 5: this is the first by back since twenty eighteen. What
Speaker 5: does that signal to you?
Speaker 9: You know, I think that their Hasbro was still working
Speaker 9: through their capital allocation priorities. They're still focused on reducing leverage.
Speaker 9: You know, their dividend has been flat for quite some time,
Speaker 9: so I think they're looking at different avenues now that
Speaker 9: they're in a much better financial position than they had been.
Speaker 7: Maybe a year or two ago.
Speaker 9: So I think it's just a signal that that that
Speaker 9: position is solidly better and they're looking to redeploy cash
Speaker 9: in different ways that they maybe couldn't have done a
Speaker 9: year or so ago.
Speaker 2: Again, using the PG function, you can see where the
Speaker 2: revenue comes from geographically for this companigy, and the international business,
Speaker 2: which was about forty percent of the revenue, has been
Speaker 2: declining as a percentage of total revenue. Here, is there
Speaker 2: a strategy there to focus on the US or are
Speaker 2: they pulling back from international?
Speaker 3: What's that strategy?
Speaker 9: Yeah, so I don't think that they're necessarily pulling back
Speaker 9: from international.
Speaker 7: Toys is a global business.
Speaker 9: I think a lot of that is reflecting the growth
Speaker 9: and wizards of the cost and the digital gaming. So
Speaker 9: the digital gaming, it's really picking up very quickly in
Speaker 9: the US or seeing a lot of growth there, and
Speaker 9: that's partly shifting that geographical concentration. That digital gaming business
Speaker 9: is a global business, So some of that shift might
Speaker 9: move back the reverse over time, but I think the
Speaker 9: near term shift is just part of that growth on
Speaker 9: the digital gaming side.
Speaker 3: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming.
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Speaker 5: All right, let's get back to earning season, because those
Speaker 5: are not the only companies that reported. Coca Cola also
Speaker 5: came out with its latest results and maybe perhaps a
Speaker 5: bit underwhelming given the stock price reaction down two percent
Speaker 5: at the moment. Kenshe is our consumer products analysts, our
Speaker 5: senior consumer products analysts, and he joined us now from Princeton.
Speaker 5: So what's the story from Coca Cola, Ken, What did
Speaker 5: they tell us?
Speaker 10: Yeah, hi, Scarlett. Well, Coke in the fourth quarter, revenues
Speaker 10: are up to EPs was up six percent, pretty much
Speaker 10: in line with expectations. But I think what maybe concerning
Speaker 10: the mark a little bit about Coke is that the
Speaker 10: mix was not as favorable as it had been well,
Speaker 10: so the company with the past couple of years had
Speaker 10: been relying heavily on price mix to boost the top line.
Speaker 10: It was a considerable slow going in the quarter. Having
Speaker 10: said that, there's always some noise in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 10: It's hard to draw too many conclusions from the fourth quarter.
Speaker 10: But I think the market is also being spooked a
Speaker 10: little bit by the guidance for next year, which came
Speaker 10: in a bit a little bit late. The company's long
Speaker 10: term algorithm is to generate about four to six percent
Speaker 10: organic revenue and from that it can generate high comparable
Speaker 10: EPs growth, and it did that in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 10: In twenty twenty six, other saying four to five percent
Speaker 10: top line and four to five percent EPs growth, and
Speaker 10: so that's EPs growth again, that's excluding currency effects. It's
Speaker 10: not only below their long term algorithm, but also below
Speaker 10: consensus expectations going in.
Speaker 2: What's the You know, we always talk at a lot
Speaker 2: of your companies, the contuber products companies as staples companies
Speaker 2: that you think about them as kind of GDP maybe
Speaker 2: a little bit GDP plus kind of growth here.
Speaker 3: Is there any secret.
Speaker 2: Sauce to the Coca Cola story or is that the
Speaker 2: way we should think about it?
Speaker 10: Well, there's a lot of truth to that, Paul, because
Speaker 10: Coke is in the two hundred markets around the world.
Speaker 10: You know, I guess the way for growth is lunar
Speaker 10: at this point, I mean they're everywhere. But I think
Speaker 10: there's gonna be a new CEO on March thirty first,
Speaker 10: Henry Barraun. He's a long time veteran at Coca Cola,
Speaker 10: was the COO used to head a Latin American operations.
Speaker 10: I think there's a lot of confidence in his ability
Speaker 10: to take the reins here. And I think what he's
Speaker 10: going to spell out in his vision next week at CAGNY,
Speaker 10: that's when they usually do it.
Speaker 3: That's what you'll be Yeah.
Speaker 10: Well, I think he's gonna say that they need to
Speaker 10: step up their marketing and innovation here to boost that
Speaker 10: top line growth. And I think they're going to talk
Speaker 10: a lot about functionality, something that we talked about with Pesico.
Speaker 10: What I mean by functionality, well, well, consumers want more
Speaker 10: from their beverages than just taste good and hydrate them.
Speaker 10: They want to not only have zero calies, zero sugar,
Speaker 10: but if they wants to have more electrolytes in their water,
Speaker 10: it wants to have more protein in their drinks. Particularly
Speaker 10: the JLP one crowd, they want to have fiber coke
Speaker 10: offers in its probiotics. So it is like simply pop
Speaker 10: So these are the kind of things they're going to
Speaker 10: talk about in terms of product innovation, I believe next week.
Speaker 10: In addition to that, I think the company's going to
Speaker 10: spend more in marketing, digital marketing, get the message out
Speaker 10: to new young consumers.
Speaker 5: I guess the idea is to just have your drink
Speaker 5: or place your food.
Speaker 3: I guess.
Speaker 5: Zero Sugar actually was a standout, right with Coca Cola
Speaker 5: Zero Sugar posting double digit volume growth in the quarter.
Speaker 5: When you say that they want to focus on the
Speaker 5: innovation and get the word out, what does that mean
Speaker 5: in terms of spending on marketing. What does that mean
Speaker 5: on in terms of capital expenses?
Speaker 10: Well, I think, broadly speaking, more social media advertising. I
Speaker 10: mean on a purview basis, that's a lot more cost
Speaker 10: efficient than traditional ways like television poll You would know
Speaker 10: that right analyst days. So it's more of that. It's
Speaker 10: also working more closely with their bottlers in terms of
Speaker 10: co marketing ventures. That could be a wide range of things,
Speaker 10: not only digital marketing, but perhaps coming out new packaging,
Speaker 10: whether it's multi packs to attract an economical consumer, to
Speaker 10: spending more on its fountain dispenser. You see a lot
Speaker 10: of a lot of fast food restaurants where they can
Speaker 10: make their own sodas and so on. Spread that out
Speaker 10: more to have more consumer engagement matter where they are. Yep,
Speaker 10: so I see.
Speaker 6: More of that.
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