WEBVTT - 12 Draft Day Bargains (EP. 775)

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome in everybody to Fantasy pros. This is the Fantasy

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<v Speaker 1>Baseball Podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Joe Pisapia here with me as always is

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<v Speaker 2>the Welsh, and it's time to take.

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<v Speaker 1>A look at some draft day bargains.

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<v Speaker 2>We've got twelve names for you that we think are

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<v Speaker 2>just priced right for you to get the most Fantasy

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<v Speaker 2>baseball goodness out of.

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<v Speaker 1>In twenty twenty four.

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<v Speaker 2>Before we get to those names, Welsh, we did have

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<v Speaker 2>a signing finally, after what seems like the most eternally

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<v Speaker 2>long offseason ever for certain guys, including Blake SNeW who

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<v Speaker 2>now finds himself on the San Francisco Giants. He joins

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<v Speaker 2>Logan Webb at the top of that rotation. So before

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<v Speaker 2>we dive into some bargain hunting, this is I think

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<v Speaker 2>a must sign kind of for the Giants. They desperately

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<v Speaker 2>needed somebody else there with Webb, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks

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<v Speaker 2>and Keaton Win right now, those are the back end

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<v Speaker 2>starters for this rotation. But let's talk about Blake snell

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<v Speaker 2>two year deal. There is an opt out, but certainly

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<v Speaker 2>a great win for the Giants, escially because didn't have

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<v Speaker 2>to commit a very long term contract to it.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and that's what they've been doing.

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<v Speaker 4>They've been not committing these big long term contracts to

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<v Speaker 4>be competitive in this division where the Dodgers or powerhouses.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, the Podgers.

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<v Speaker 4>Made some interesting moves, but they've been a little flatlined

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<v Speaker 4>until the Dylan C's trade Diamondbacks. Obviously, World Series, you

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<v Speaker 4>want to stay competitive. This is a great way to

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<v Speaker 4>do it. And they're setting themselves up where you've got

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<v Speaker 4>a one two punch of Web and Snell for the

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<v Speaker 4>foreseeable future if healthy on the back end, and they

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<v Speaker 4>were to make a playoff run, they got Robbie Ray.

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<v Speaker 4>So this is a big l for Scott Boris and

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<v Speaker 4>the money. At least Snell did get, you know, a

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<v Speaker 4>thirty million dollars deal per year, and it looks like

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<v Speaker 4>he's going to be able to have his opt outs.

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<v Speaker 4>But what is so fascinating is we were out the precipice.

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<v Speaker 4>We were about to explode where we were going to

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<v Speaker 4>say we can't draft Blake Snell. It was already getting there.

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<v Speaker 4>We can't do it, we can't do it. But then

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<v Speaker 4>we find out.

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<v Speaker 1>Not a current ADP. We couldn't, but well, the.

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<v Speaker 4>ADP was high, it was in the sixties, but then

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<v Speaker 4>over the last week on NFBC had been moving down

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<v Speaker 4>into the eighties. That's what I'm saying, three or four

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<v Speaker 4>days from it moving down into like post one, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>fifty or something like that. But we got the word

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<v Speaker 4>a couple days ago that he did pitch a full

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<v Speaker 4>four inning simulated game, which kind of shows how he's

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<v Speaker 4>been ramping up. I think there's a decent possibility that

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<v Speaker 4>the ramp up is going to be minimal and maybe

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<v Speaker 4>he misses just like a game or two, or they

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<v Speaker 4>just skip in the rotation. This is a great destination

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<v Speaker 4>and I think we can be a little bit optimistic,

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<v Speaker 4>and hopefully not sure we will, but hopefully we can

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<v Speaker 4>take the discount on Snell if you're in the Snell market,

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<v Speaker 4>because he's a little polarizing.

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<v Speaker 1>He is.

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<v Speaker 2>Boy, what a great division to Arizona go into a

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<v Speaker 2>World Series last year the Juggernaut Dodgers. Now the Giants

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<v Speaker 2>kind of Hey, I was saying, hey, we're gonna be

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<v Speaker 2>competitive in this thing too, and they were busy this offseason.

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<v Speaker 2>They went out there and they signed sol Air, Junghu Lee,

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<v Speaker 2>Matt Chapman. So the Giants are making moves out there,

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<v Speaker 2>which is good. You want teams to be spending money

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<v Speaker 2>on players, not just pocketing it. So that's a good thing,

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<v Speaker 2>good environment for Blake Snell, and still where he's got

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<v Speaker 2>to go out there and performance on some seven deal

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<v Speaker 2>where we can just kind of rest on the laurels.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's get into some of the draft day bargains

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<v Speaker 2>everybody we're talking about.

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<v Speaker 1>These are players.

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<v Speaker 2>Going from somewhere between one hundred to two hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>ADP overall consensus, which you can find at fantasypros dot com.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course on our rankings page for MLB. You can

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<v Speaker 2>also find the draftkit on there, which is free, so

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<v Speaker 2>you could check.

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<v Speaker 1>That out also.

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<v Speaker 2>So Welsh, why don't you kick things off with a guy?

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<v Speaker 2>And you got to the show sheet first? This was

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<v Speaker 2>the first guy I was gonna run to, really, and

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<v Speaker 2>you put him in the show sheet? So turn about

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<v Speaker 2>is fair play?

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<v Speaker 3>My friend, Ah, I did not know that this was

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<v Speaker 3>gonna happen.

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<v Speaker 4>That's a great thing to hear, by the way, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>differentiating a lot of the different topics we've talked about,

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<v Speaker 4>and this is, you know, a brand new one of

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<v Speaker 4>draft day bargains. It lives in the same general family

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<v Speaker 4>as you know, the breakouts and the sleepers and stuff

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<v Speaker 4>like that. But the identification here clearly is like, these

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<v Speaker 4>guys are really good deals at what they do. Upside

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<v Speaker 4>is I'm not really sure, but where they're going just

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<v Speaker 4>doesn't quite make sense to what they produce. And that

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<v Speaker 4>player that jumps out to me is katel Marte. No

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<v Speaker 4>homerism attached. Put it aside here. I know my a

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<v Speaker 4>Diamondbacks fan, but katel Marte last season two seventy six average,

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<v Speaker 4>twenty five homers, ninety four runs, eighty two RBI, and

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<v Speaker 4>eight stolen bases. Projections have him in the twenty homers again,

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<v Speaker 4>have him near the ten stolen bases anywhere from the

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<v Speaker 4>high eighties on. Really both the run and RBI numbers,

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<v Speaker 4>everything is still in play. After low strikeout numbers, he

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<v Speaker 4>had a double digit walk rate and his actual hitting profile.

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<v Speaker 4>He increased his hard hit percentage this past year. He

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<v Speaker 4>increased year over year his barrel percentage, his expected batting average.

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<v Speaker 4>His expected numbers were within a general space of where

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<v Speaker 4>it needs to be. And one thing Katel has always done,

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<v Speaker 4>he actually did at the highest degree. He always is

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<v Speaker 4>one of those guys that is one of the hardest

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<v Speaker 4>hit balls in baseball. Every single season, you're going to

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<v Speaker 4>find the leader board for the max EV top ten.

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<v Speaker 4>Katel's going to get in there, but his average EV

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<v Speaker 4>they could and sometimes kind of float around, Like here's

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<v Speaker 4>an example in twenty eighteen with the Diamondbacks. He had

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<v Speaker 4>a one fifteen point one MaxV but an eighty eight average.

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<v Speaker 4>So the average hits well. Last year was tied for

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<v Speaker 4>a career high of ninety one point one. So she's

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<v Speaker 4>been making better contact, finding some comfort in stealing. Maybe

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<v Speaker 4>the Diamonbacks are gonna want to steal a little bit more.

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<v Speaker 4>But the big important thing here is the low ADP.

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<v Speaker 4>It pushes near outside the top one hundred, and when

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<v Speaker 4>you look at the scope of the second basement that

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<v Speaker 4>are out there. I'm not saying you don't take Azzi

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<v Speaker 4>Albi's to take katl Marte, but the line between Ozzi

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<v Speaker 4>Albi's atka tell Marte, especially considering the ADP value, is.

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<v Speaker 3>Something to pay attention to. And not all positions have this.

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<v Speaker 4>I've said that, like, I don't think I personally don't

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<v Speaker 4>think third base has that close of a line. I

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<v Speaker 4>don't think first base necessarily has that line, outfield shortan.

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<v Speaker 4>You know they can all do that second base. There

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<v Speaker 4>are some good depthy options and Katel Marte I think

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<v Speaker 4>is one of the best draft day bargains.

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<v Speaker 1>I could not agree more.

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<v Speaker 2>This was again the first guy that came into my

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<v Speaker 2>mind when we were talking about this topic. And so

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<v Speaker 2>you could take Welsh's homerism even if he had it

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<v Speaker 2>for Marte off the table because I'm co sunning this

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<v Speaker 2>as well.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned that pivot. If you don't get Simmy, you

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<v Speaker 1>don't get Albi's. This is the pivot.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, what a fantastic guy right around one hundred.

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<v Speaker 2>Speaking of guys going around one hundred, at one oh three,

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<v Speaker 2>says Azuki, who I actually just drafted in our last

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<v Speaker 2>mock draft, and after I took him, I was like,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, why don't I have more shares of this guy?

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<v Speaker 2>And last year, going into the season, I was a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit skeptical even as rookie year, I was somebody saying, look,

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<v Speaker 2>let's pump the brakes, let's see what this guy is.

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<v Speaker 2>He was pretty good in twenty twenty two. I wouldn't

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<v Speaker 2>say he was great. Two sixty batting average, fourteen homers

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<v Speaker 2>and only played one hundred and eleven games. He missed

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<v Speaker 2>some time with injury. Last year, he missed some time

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<v Speaker 2>with injury two but one hundred and thirty eight games.

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<v Speaker 2>He saw the power develop a little bit more twenty

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<v Speaker 2>homers for him, the batting average jump twenty points over

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<v Speaker 2>a longer period of time. You'll love to see the

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<v Speaker 2>growth there. You see the walk rate is around ten percent.

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<v Speaker 2>That's really solid. And would you consider Welsh That outfield

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<v Speaker 2>is so problematic and you're looking for a guy with

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<v Speaker 2>decent value. I'm looking at the project right now. He's

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<v Speaker 2>gonna hit in the two hole in this order, in

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<v Speaker 2>front of Cody Bellinger, behind me and half. That's a

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<v Speaker 2>really good spot to be a good favorable home ball park.

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<v Speaker 2>Seventy seven runs, twenty two homers, seventy five ribies, nine steals.

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<v Speaker 1>That feels pretty good.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, have him been a two seventy batting average, even

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<v Speaker 2>if he just kind of matches this at adp of

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<v Speaker 2>one oho three, I think that's a really good value.

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<v Speaker 2>But if you add in the possibility that that run

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<v Speaker 2>total if the Cubs do what I think the Cubs

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<v Speaker 2>are capable of doing, which is not only competing but

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<v Speaker 2>maybe winning this division. You're only gonna run total over

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<v Speaker 2>the ninety mark if he hits that, If he gets

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<v Speaker 2>from twenty two and runs to maybe squeaks out twenty five,

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<v Speaker 2>if he can get that stolen base total into double

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<v Speaker 2>digits and maybe maintain that two to eighty batting average,

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<v Speaker 2>it's gonna be a really special player at this return.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think as an outfielder three slash four, you

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<v Speaker 2>could do a lot worse than say a Suzuki. And

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<v Speaker 2>I again, I think he just gets passed over. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>he's a guy we kind of take for grinting a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit, and I don't think we should. Well, she's

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<v Speaker 2>the next guy on your list in terms of draft

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<v Speaker 2>day bargains.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I just want to throw out, like I try

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<v Speaker 4>to get my shares of Suzuki, I just cannot forget them.

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<v Speaker 3>I want them.

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<v Speaker 4>He's like a chasing amey, Like I'm always chasing Suzuki

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<v Speaker 4>and I can't quite get to him.

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<v Speaker 1>That's one of the lesser Kevin Smith movies, Chasing It's

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<v Speaker 1>coming out. Let's see that one. It used to be

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<v Speaker 1>on IFC a lot and then they pulled it.

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<v Speaker 3>Sequel coming out in Fall. You're gonna love it. But

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<v Speaker 3>I agree because it.

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<v Speaker 1>Hit with a fourth Clerks movie. How many Clerks movies

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<v Speaker 1>do we have?

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<v Speaker 3>Now we have two? We have two too many. We

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<v Speaker 3>were good with just one.

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<v Speaker 4>So all right, but number two I'm actually gonna stick

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<v Speaker 4>in the outfield and I'm gonna go with Taoscar Hernandez.

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<v Speaker 4>Taoscar Hernandez with an ADP average of one oh eight.

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<v Speaker 4>Not one site has him inside the top one hundred.

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<v Speaker 4>As a matter of fact, even ESPN has got him

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<v Speaker 4>around one forty nine, so almost one fifty. Now why

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<v Speaker 4>ta Oscar Hernandez. Well, you're getting him out of the

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<v Speaker 4>bad ballpark in Seattle where he still hit twenty six

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<v Speaker 4>ommers last year ninety three RBIs with a two to

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<v Speaker 4>fifty eight batting average. His batting average is sunk the

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<v Speaker 4>last three years, but we haven't dipped under two fifty

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<v Speaker 4>and we had bad ballpark factors. Really, frankly, if you're

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<v Speaker 4>looking at like even like Toronto to Seattle and now

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<v Speaker 4>you're going to the Dodgers where it's better. But also

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<v Speaker 4>the offense, that's the big major focus is what this

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<v Speaker 4>offense is going to be. You've got a guy forty

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<v Speaker 4>nine point four percent hard hit rate, this past season,

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<v Speaker 4>he sits between forty eight and fifty two, so big

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<v Speaker 4>hard hit numbers. He gets the ball in the air,

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<v Speaker 4>he hits the ball hard thirteen point eight percent barrel percentage.

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<v Speaker 4>Those are hitting metrics that we love. Those go along

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<v Speaker 4>with sustainable expected stats. His expected batting average was actually

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<v Speaker 4>the exact same number as his batting average. And at

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<v Speaker 4>the end of the day, you give me a power

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<v Speaker 4>bat like that in a better ballpark, on a better team,

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<v Speaker 4>that's going to turn the lineup over more. He's going

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<v Speaker 4>to have more opportunity that could move him up the lineup. Now,

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<v Speaker 4>sure this lineup is so good, he could be hitting

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<v Speaker 4>six or seven, but the RBI opportunities are going to

0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:49.760
<v Speaker 4>be there. If you want to look at some of

0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:53.400
<v Speaker 4>the projection systems, ATC has twenty six homers two sixty

0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:57.320
<v Speaker 4>one with seven stolen bases. The bat X twenty nine homers,

0:09:57.400 --> 0:10:00.680
<v Speaker 4>ten stolen bases, eighty plus on the run RBIs with

0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:02.880
<v Speaker 4>a two to sixty eight batting average. I think he

0:10:03.000 --> 0:10:06.800
<v Speaker 4>is crossing thirty good shot at thirty five homers this year,

0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:11.080
<v Speaker 4>and he's going outside the top one hundred. Outfield can

0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:14.440
<v Speaker 4>get kind of pretty quick. It can get away from you.

0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:18.280
<v Speaker 4>But Taoscar Hernandez, even in a three outfielder league, I

0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:21.000
<v Speaker 4>think is a prime target. In a three outfielder league,

0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:24.040
<v Speaker 4>if you can already have two guys, he's your third.

0:10:24.080 --> 0:10:28.280
<v Speaker 4>In a five outfielder league, even more priority because that

0:10:28.480 --> 0:10:31.760
<v Speaker 4>power back. The value of the really the four categories

0:10:31.800 --> 0:10:34.480
<v Speaker 4>with a little sprinkle of stolen bases is immense. In

0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:36.840
<v Speaker 4>one of the best lineups in baseball, Taskar Hernandez a

0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:38.520
<v Speaker 4>definite draft day bargain.

0:10:38.480 --> 0:10:40.800
<v Speaker 2>His career high one hundred and sixteen RBI back in

0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:43.520
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty one, Welsh, I think he could match that.

0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:45.280
<v Speaker 2>I think he can go over one hundred this year

0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.640
<v Speaker 2>in this Dodger lineup if everyone stays healthy and this Dodger.

0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:49.680
<v Speaker 1>Lineup does what it's supposed to do.

0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:52.280
<v Speaker 2>And you mentioned about like that outfield cliff that we

0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:53.000
<v Speaker 2>always talk about.

0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:55.160
<v Speaker 1>If you're in a five active outfielder.

0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:57.319
<v Speaker 2>League, you have to be looking around this range here

0:10:57.400 --> 0:10:59.760
<v Speaker 2>we mentioned Suzuki mentioned Hernandez. I've got another one on

0:10:59.800 --> 0:11:02.160
<v Speaker 2>my list here, Lane Thomas, who you know, everyone's just

0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:04.800
<v Speaker 2>yelling about regression, yelling about regression, even if he regresses.

0:11:05.320 --> 0:11:06.679
<v Speaker 2>I keep coming back to the same thing and I

0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:08.560
<v Speaker 2>know I've mentioned him on other shows before, but I

0:11:08.559 --> 0:11:09.400
<v Speaker 2>want to drive this home.

0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:10.600
<v Speaker 1>At eightp of one oh nine.

0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:14.480
<v Speaker 2>The projections right now, twenty two homers, eighty one run scored,

0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:17.439
<v Speaker 2>seventy three rbi, fifteen steels, two fifty batting average. So

0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:20.920
<v Speaker 2>you're giving me twenty fifteen. Okay, last year it was

0:11:20.920 --> 0:11:23.920
<v Speaker 2>twenty eight twenty. That was absurdly good. I keep saying.

0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:25.560
<v Speaker 2>If we just looked at the numbers and took away

0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:28.040
<v Speaker 2>Lane Thomas, took away the fact he plays for the Nationals,

0:11:28.160 --> 0:11:30.400
<v Speaker 2>we'd be talking about this guy as a third round pick.

0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:32.440
<v Speaker 2>But instead we're talking about him at eightp of one

0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:34.480
<v Speaker 2>oh nine. Why because he plays for the Nationals. Because

0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:37.360
<v Speaker 2>people don't believe him. In twenty twenty two, again he

0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:39.520
<v Speaker 2>only hit two forty, but he still had the seventeen

0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:43.000
<v Speaker 2>homers and eight stone bases. You saw the jump forward

0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:46.480
<v Speaker 2>this past season, and I am buying in to Lane

0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:49.240
<v Speaker 2>Thomas again. It doesn't cost you a lot here for

0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:52.079
<v Speaker 2>that baseline, and the projections of that baseline I think

0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:55.480
<v Speaker 2>are very fair, and you already know that he's good

0:11:55.600 --> 0:11:57.560
<v Speaker 2>enough to go above them because he just did it

0:11:57.640 --> 0:11:59.520
<v Speaker 2>last year. So is he a perfect guy?

0:11:59.679 --> 0:11:59.719
<v Speaker 4>Know?

0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:02.440
<v Speaker 2>Still heading towards the top of that order. I know,

0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:05.079
<v Speaker 2>the three twenty five babbit, you know, inflated the average

0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:06.240
<v Speaker 2>of two sixty eight a little bit.

0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:07.160
<v Speaker 1>I get that, but.

0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:09.120
<v Speaker 2>At the same time, I still think this is a

0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:11.200
<v Speaker 2>player with power and speed that can really help you

0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:14.400
<v Speaker 2>in those rotal formats and again a value in the outfield.

0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:16.199
<v Speaker 2>Before we get to the next guys on our list too,

0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:18.199
<v Speaker 2>I just want to remind everybody this is that time

0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.480
<v Speaker 2>where most of you've done your drafts already. So if

0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:22.760
<v Speaker 2>you haven't already sink your leagues, if you missed out

0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:25.640
<v Speaker 2>on the draft season opportunity, there's still plenty of time

0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:27.760
<v Speaker 2>sink your leagues for free over our Fantasy Pros and

0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:30.840
<v Speaker 2>use the tools and use my playbook, because my playbook

0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:32.800
<v Speaker 2>is going to give you that personalized league dashboard for

0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:34.000
<v Speaker 2>all your leagues I mentioned.

0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:37.080
<v Speaker 1>I could set all your lineups there. For premium members too.

0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:39.439
<v Speaker 2>You can do all kinds of amazing things with like analysis,

0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:42.600
<v Speaker 2>projected stats, waiver wire, ad drops, all these incredible things.

0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:45.240
<v Speaker 2>But basically, what the MLB my playbook gives you is

0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:48.480
<v Speaker 2>custom news, custom brankings, custom analysis, and it gives you

0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:51.000
<v Speaker 2>all that ability to control all your teams in one spot,

0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:53.480
<v Speaker 2>which I gotta say, like that is the biggest time

0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:56.280
<v Speaker 2>suck ever when you're in multiple leagues. I've on this platform.

0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:58.240
<v Speaker 2>I got two leagues on that platform, three leagues on

0:12:58.280 --> 0:12:58.800
<v Speaker 2>that platform.

0:12:58.840 --> 0:12:59.360
<v Speaker 1>It's crazy.

0:12:59.440 --> 0:13:01.760
<v Speaker 4>You know what, Bob, his oldest top bagman, has told

0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:04.560
<v Speaker 4>me to our dear friend Bagman that he is now

0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:07.360
<v Speaker 4>in a space where he will only play if it's

0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:09.600
<v Speaker 4>on one league. He's like, I only want to play

0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:11.800
<v Speaker 4>on this platform because he doesn't want to move. Well,

0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:14.080
<v Speaker 4>my playbook fixes that because now you can go and

0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:16.720
<v Speaker 4>play on all the platforms and change it in one spot,

0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:18.640
<v Speaker 4>which that's all that anybody really wants.

0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:19.840
<v Speaker 1>Go check it out yourself.

0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:23.720
<v Speaker 2>Fantasybros dot com, slash MLB My Playbook or just download

0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:27.040
<v Speaker 2>the MLB My Playbook app and sink your leagues for

0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:28.160
<v Speaker 2>free and see what we're talking about.

0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:29.640
<v Speaker 1>Because this is going to save you time.

0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:31.720
<v Speaker 2>It's going to give you the right answers to setting

0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:34.840
<v Speaker 2>your lineup, to analyzing trades, to making waiverire pickups. You

0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.079
<v Speaker 2>could see all the free agents in every single league

0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:38.959
<v Speaker 2>that you're in and then just go and add them.

0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:39.840
<v Speaker 2>It's crazy.

0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:41.040
<v Speaker 1>Good check it out today.

0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:43.240
<v Speaker 2>Welsh let's check out the next guy on your list

0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:45.880
<v Speaker 2>for bargains in twenty twenty four.

0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:46.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, you know, it's funny.

0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:51.200
<v Speaker 4>Bargains definitely can have a feel kind of boring, and

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:54.000
<v Speaker 4>I think this guy might have a boring feel. But

0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:56.960
<v Speaker 4>the whole the reason behind that again is like they're

0:13:57.080 --> 0:14:00.160
<v Speaker 4>just such good value at where they're going. One of

0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:02.600
<v Speaker 4>these guys we've talked about, they haven't moved a whole

0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:04.520
<v Speaker 4>bunch of value. And this is another one of those

0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:07.360
<v Speaker 4>that has shown up in different episodes. The guy I'm

0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:10.680
<v Speaker 4>going to give you uh has an ADP right around

0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:15.319
<v Speaker 4>one thirty, and it's Josh Naylor. Josh Naylor with the Guardians,

0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:19.280
<v Speaker 4>who last year put up some absurd RBI numbers in

0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:22.280
<v Speaker 4>one hundred and twenty one games, ninety seven RBI, he

0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:25.560
<v Speaker 4>had double digit stolen bases, seventeen homers again one hundred

0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:28.520
<v Speaker 4>and twenty one games. He also hit over three hundred.

0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:31.880
<v Speaker 4>This spring, he's over three hundred again. He's not striking out.

0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 4>He's even stolen a couple more bases. The hitting profile

0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:38.680
<v Speaker 4>of Nayler is solid. Expected batting average supports his really

0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:40.560
<v Speaker 4>good batting average. It was a two to ninety three

0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:43.640
<v Speaker 4>last year, which was in the upper echelon of the league.

0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:45.880
<v Speaker 3>Again, the barrel percentage of solid.

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:47.240
<v Speaker 4>He gets the ball in the air, he hits the

0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:49.440
<v Speaker 4>ball hard, he hits in the middle of the order.

0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:52.600
<v Speaker 4>Projections love him because of the high batting average, and

0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:55.560
<v Speaker 4>that is something that gets away from us. So I

0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:57.920
<v Speaker 4>mean two things we could pretty easily identify what gets

0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:00.240
<v Speaker 4>away from us in drafts from a hitting perspective, the

0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:05.240
<v Speaker 4>outfield position and batting average. And Josh Naylor he devoids that.

0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:07.880
<v Speaker 4>The power potential might not be like what we've talked

0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:10.400
<v Speaker 4>about with ti Oscar Hernandez, but I think the floors

0:15:10.440 --> 0:15:13.680
<v Speaker 4>in the twenties, the ceiling is around thirty. He's gonna

0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:15.920
<v Speaker 4>have a prime RBI spot because there's a lot of

0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:18.120
<v Speaker 4>guys that run in front of him. That team does

0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:21.120
<v Speaker 4>score a lot of runs, and he even sneakily steals

0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:23.160
<v Speaker 4>some bases. So here's what I love about Josh Naylor.

0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:26.840
<v Speaker 4>You screw up on first base. He's great. He's not

0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:29.000
<v Speaker 4>a big power bat, but he's great. What he also

0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:31.560
<v Speaker 4>does is he allows you to go a little bit

0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:34.160
<v Speaker 4>more power later. Maybe you want to snag a Jorges

0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.160
<v Speaker 4>Silaire and then in corner infield. You want to get

0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:37.440
<v Speaker 4>a Reese Hoskins boom.

0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:37.920
<v Speaker 3>But guess what.

0:15:38.000 --> 0:15:40.640
<v Speaker 4>Also, let's say you go early first base, go to

0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:43.200
<v Speaker 4>Pete Alonzo, who I think you should take with elite power.

0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:46.240
<v Speaker 4>Little question on batting average. Guess what you can swoop

0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:49.440
<v Speaker 4>in post one hundred. Get a corner infielder in Josh

0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:53.440
<v Speaker 4>Naylor who supports really high batting average, good RBI numbers,

0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:56.760
<v Speaker 4>sneaky stolen bases. There's at least three categories in there.

0:15:56.800 --> 0:15:59.440
<v Speaker 4>Josh Naylor is a draft day bargain for show.

0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:01.880
<v Speaker 2>Sick of me be talking about Josh Nayler, So I'm

0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:04.120
<v Speaker 2>only going to say this. You mentioned maybe the powers

0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:06.880
<v Speaker 2>behind a little bit. He slugged four eighty nine last

0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:09.040
<v Speaker 2>year in one hundred and twenty one games. I know

0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:13.760
<v Speaker 2>it only equivalated to seventeen homers, but I know extrapolations

0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:15.960
<v Speaker 2>a little dangerous. But if you just pushed that number

0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:18.440
<v Speaker 2>just a little bit, twenty two to twenty five is

0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:20.400
<v Speaker 2>not out of the question here. He's didn't clean up

0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:24.040
<v Speaker 2>in this lineup. As you mentioned, Jimenez, Kwan and Ramirez

0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:26.920
<v Speaker 2>all ahead of him. There's gonna be plenty of RBI opportunities.

0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:29.760
<v Speaker 2>There were plenty. Last year he drove in ninety plus runs. Already,

0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:31.120
<v Speaker 2>I'm telling.

0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:33.440
<v Speaker 1>You I am in. I'm all in, especially if you

0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:34.720
<v Speaker 1>get him as your corner guy.

0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:37.400
<v Speaker 2>Man, I love Naylor. He gives you a batting average

0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:39.120
<v Speaker 2>more pop than you might realize.

0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:41.080
<v Speaker 4>Also, I want to give you credit. You created a

0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:43.480
<v Speaker 4>Welsh's in there. You said equivalated. Yeah, I think you

0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:44.440
<v Speaker 4>created a new word.

0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:47.760
<v Speaker 2>You quick related the equivalations my friends, my friends come here,

0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:50.080
<v Speaker 2>you comfort the baseball, you stay for the equivalations.

0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:53.000
<v Speaker 4>We equivolated Josh Naylor to be he meant to say equivalent.

0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:54.760
<v Speaker 4>I know, No, it was a great word. It was

0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:56.760
<v Speaker 4>a great word that I just wanted to be highlights.

0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:58.560
<v Speaker 4>That's something I would do and it would go in

0:16:58.560 --> 0:16:59.160
<v Speaker 4>the Welsh book.

0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:01.640
<v Speaker 1>That is a d This is what happens when you

0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:02.720
<v Speaker 1>spend too much time with the Welsh.

0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:06.480
<v Speaker 2>Eventually you start to sound like him, and before I

0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:08.359
<v Speaker 2>know I'll be wearing baseball caps on every show.

0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:08.720
<v Speaker 1>All right.

0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:11.760
<v Speaker 2>Number three on my list here going through the next

0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:15.040
<v Speaker 2>one is Andre's Munos, the closer for the Seattle Mariners.

0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:18.720
<v Speaker 2>We talked recently Welsh about having your plan and how

0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:22.080
<v Speaker 2>you want to approach relief pitcher. If you have mandatory

0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:24.639
<v Speaker 2>RP slots, it changes the dynamic a little bit. If

0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:27.280
<v Speaker 2>you don't, I still like playing the waiver wire. I

0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:29.440
<v Speaker 2>like to wait and let the market come to me

0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:31.600
<v Speaker 2>a little bit. This is exactly where I like the

0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:34.800
<v Speaker 2>market to come because I feel like Munios has that

0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:36.399
<v Speaker 2>chance to jump a tier.

0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:38.600
<v Speaker 1>He's going at one eleven overall.

0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:41.560
<v Speaker 2>Last year ninety six strike excuse me, two years ago,

0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:44.080
<v Speaker 2>ninety six strikeouts and sixty five innings. Last year sixty

0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:46.280
<v Speaker 2>seven strikeouts and fort nine innings. Right, So this is

0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:48.119
<v Speaker 2>a player that you know the strikeout's going to be

0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:51.000
<v Speaker 2>there so far the last two years, both the eras

0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:54.440
<v Speaker 2>under three. So he has dominant type stuff.

0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:55.240
<v Speaker 1>He has the job.

0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:56.960
<v Speaker 2>It's a terrific team that's going to give him a

0:17:56.960 --> 0:18:00.520
<v Speaker 2>ton of save opportunities because this is a tremendous pitching staff.

0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:02.640
<v Speaker 2>This is not like some half assed taf we we're

0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:06.000
<v Speaker 2>talking about like some premium guys. George Kirby could win

0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:07.960
<v Speaker 2>a saw young according to Welsh, and he might not

0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:09.560
<v Speaker 2>be wrong here. I actually put some money on it

0:18:09.560 --> 0:18:11.800
<v Speaker 2>a little bit just in case he is right that way.

0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:14.160
<v Speaker 2>I'm making some money on what Welsh says. But you've

0:18:14.160 --> 0:18:17.760
<v Speaker 2>got Gilbert, You've got Kirby, You've got Luis Castillo at

0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:19.560
<v Speaker 2>the top of this rotation. You got Bryce Miller and

0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:22.800
<v Speaker 2>Brian wu at the backhand. It feels like every day

0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.040
<v Speaker 2>there's a chance for a quality start and a chance

0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:27.359
<v Speaker 2>to get the ball into Munoz's hand to get a safe.

0:18:27.400 --> 0:18:28.840
<v Speaker 1>He could save forty games this year.

0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:31.080
<v Speaker 2>And I know, like saves can be tricky in terms of,

0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:33.600
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's hard to gauge exactly whether it's gonna be.

0:18:33.600 --> 0:18:37.359
<v Speaker 1>But usually the perfect storm for saves.

0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:40.359
<v Speaker 2>Is a good offense, not a great offense, and a

0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:43.240
<v Speaker 2>really good pitching staff. And I feel like Seattle kind

0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:45.400
<v Speaker 2>of encapsulates that. Right they got the one big star

0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:47.919
<v Speaker 2>guy in Julio. The rest of the offense is good.

0:18:48.280 --> 0:18:50.280
<v Speaker 2>There's still a big bad away from being with the

0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:52.800
<v Speaker 2>big boys, but that pitching staff is very good. They're

0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:54.119
<v Speaker 2>gonna be in a lot of games where I think

0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:56.119
<v Speaker 2>they're gonna have leads because of the pitching staff, but

0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:58.760
<v Speaker 2>not blowing teams out on a daily basis because they

0:18:58.760 --> 0:19:01.879
<v Speaker 2>don't have a juggernaut line up has Otani and Betts

0:19:01.920 --> 0:19:04.399
<v Speaker 2>and Freeman in it. So I'm looking at Munos and

0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:06.480
<v Speaker 2>I'm saying, yeah, this is exactly where I want to

0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:09.160
<v Speaker 2>be taking this guy. To me, this is the sweet

0:19:09.160 --> 0:19:11.639
<v Speaker 2>spot of closers. Evan Phillips is in there, Munjos is

0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:13.760
<v Speaker 2>in there right. It's that group of guys that I

0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:16.600
<v Speaker 2>like to target. So Munyos to me, he gives you

0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:19.360
<v Speaker 2>everything you're looking for in terms of the strikeout upside.

0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:21.119
<v Speaker 2>You know it's going to be there. You know the

0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:23.240
<v Speaker 2>safe opportunities are going to be there too. He saved

0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:25.360
<v Speaker 2>just thirteen games last year and forty one in things,

0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:26.440
<v Speaker 2>but again, he'd have the job.

0:19:26.280 --> 0:19:27.640
<v Speaker 1>The whole time this year.

0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:31.600
<v Speaker 2>It could be a big difference in terms of what

0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:34.240
<v Speaker 2>that safe total might be. But also, I was so

0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:36.560
<v Speaker 2>hyped about this guy last year. I'm just doubling down

0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:37.879
<v Speaker 2>because I know how good he can be.

0:19:38.000 --> 0:19:38.680
<v Speaker 1>So Welsh.

0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:40.760
<v Speaker 2>I don't know about you, but this is to me

0:19:40.840 --> 0:19:43.680
<v Speaker 2>the sweet spot where Phillips Munos. I like those two guys,

0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:46.360
<v Speaker 2>but Munhos especially too, because I think he still will

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:48.040
<v Speaker 2>go cheaper than Phillips every single time.

0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:50.600
<v Speaker 3>Phillips is my guy, but I like Munos more.

0:19:51.119 --> 0:19:53.720
<v Speaker 4>With the Matt Brash injury, because Matt Brash one of

0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:56.919
<v Speaker 4>the best pitches in baseball, and that's sweeper slider. But

0:19:57.160 --> 0:19:58.960
<v Speaker 4>that injury set him back a little bit, and I

0:19:58.960 --> 0:20:01.680
<v Speaker 4>think that's just more of a reason to not take

0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:04.240
<v Speaker 4>Munios out of it, especially if it's something nursing all year.

0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:06.239
<v Speaker 3>So I like it. But I'm a Phillips guy, but

0:20:06.520 --> 0:20:07.360
<v Speaker 3>I don't hate your mind.

0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:10.240
<v Speaker 2>I like Phillips too, but I still say, in most drafts,

0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:12.159
<v Speaker 2>you're gonna Phillips because he's a Dodger. He's gonna go

0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:14.760
<v Speaker 2>ahead and maybe Munios you get ten picks later. But

0:20:14.800 --> 0:20:16.800
<v Speaker 2>that's almost like the warning signal that goes up or

0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:18.640
<v Speaker 2>you go, oh boom, there's Phillips.

0:20:18.640 --> 0:20:20.080
<v Speaker 1>Okay, I like your logic.

0:20:20.320 --> 0:20:22.359
<v Speaker 4>I want to point out I liked your logic of like,

0:20:22.600 --> 0:20:25.000
<v Speaker 4>these are great pictures that can go six or seven.

0:20:25.119 --> 0:20:27.320
<v Speaker 4>This is an offense that might not blow any teams out.

0:20:27.400 --> 0:20:29.240
<v Speaker 4>They could be playing a ton of close games because

0:20:29.240 --> 0:20:31.080
<v Speaker 4>the pitching staff is going to keep them in. The

0:20:31.119 --> 0:20:33.520
<v Speaker 4>offense is fine, and there might be a lot of

0:20:33.560 --> 0:20:35.359
<v Speaker 4>save opportunities. So I like that logic.

0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:37.320
<v Speaker 2>All right, let's get back to you here because you've

0:20:37.320 --> 0:20:39.679
<v Speaker 2>got a picture as well. Actually two more pictures to

0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:41.440
<v Speaker 2>talk about, so let's get to this first one here,

0:20:41.440 --> 0:20:42.959
<v Speaker 2>who's on your draft, Dave Bargain.

0:20:43.000 --> 0:20:44.639
<v Speaker 1>Listen the on the mound.

0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:48.000
<v Speaker 4>Well, we're gonna stay with the Guardians. And again the

0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:51.000
<v Speaker 4>boring is gonna kind of show itself here, but that's

0:20:51.040 --> 0:20:53.119
<v Speaker 4>okay because we're gonna just take bargains.

0:20:53.760 --> 0:20:55.080
<v Speaker 3>This guy have been very critical of.

0:20:55.680 --> 0:20:59.159
<v Speaker 4>But we've seen a huge positive sign in spring and

0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:02.439
<v Speaker 4>that is VLO increase. And we're talking about Shane Bieber, who,

0:21:02.480 --> 0:21:05.040
<v Speaker 4>by the way, has an ADP right next to Naylor.

0:21:05.080 --> 0:21:08.600
<v Speaker 4>It's one twenty six on average, but again it floats around.

0:21:09.160 --> 0:21:11.879
<v Speaker 4>He goes as low as like one sixty in NFBC,

0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:15.120
<v Speaker 4>in the early one CBS around one thirty three. And

0:21:15.520 --> 0:21:18.000
<v Speaker 4>the thing about Bieber's he's gonna eat innings. We know

0:21:18.080 --> 0:21:20.239
<v Speaker 4>that last year he started walking a little bit more.

0:21:20.320 --> 0:21:26.000
<v Speaker 4>The strikeout numbers they took this really really increased a

0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:30.320
<v Speaker 4>heavy decrease overall in velocity over the last two seasons,

0:21:30.520 --> 0:21:34.000
<v Speaker 4>averaging ninety one point three both seasons. But he's up

0:21:34.000 --> 0:21:37.360
<v Speaker 4>to ninety four on average in spring. Again, that's the

0:21:37.400 --> 0:21:40.240
<v Speaker 4>sweet sauce. That's the thing that we needed. Even in

0:21:40.240 --> 0:21:43.840
<v Speaker 4>twenty twenty two, when the VELO decrease started, you still

0:21:43.880 --> 0:21:46.760
<v Speaker 4>have the slider and the knuckle curve with a forty

0:21:46.760 --> 0:21:50.160
<v Speaker 4>percent whiff rate. All of those everything dramatically dropped last year,

0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:54.120
<v Speaker 4>but we're back with increased ve low and I think

0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:56.719
<v Speaker 4>that is a great sign for Shane Bieber because Bieber

0:21:56.960 --> 0:22:00.240
<v Speaker 4>is going to eat innings. He is the guy they're

0:22:00.280 --> 0:22:03.320
<v Speaker 4>going to put out there as much. Twenty two he

0:22:03.359 --> 0:22:06.240
<v Speaker 4>had one hundred and I had two hundred innings last

0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:07.840
<v Speaker 4>year due to injuries set him back.

0:22:08.040 --> 0:22:09.320
<v Speaker 3>He's still twenty eight years old.

0:22:09.600 --> 0:22:11.520
<v Speaker 4>Also think if the Guardians get out of it, Bieber

0:22:11.560 --> 0:22:13.719
<v Speaker 4>is a prime trade candidate and he's a guy that

0:22:13.840 --> 0:22:15.160
<v Speaker 4>is going to frontline a rotation.

0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:19.840
<v Speaker 3>I think the fall of Biaber in his.

0:22:19.960 --> 0:22:22.919
<v Speaker 4>Value is why we've got to target him now because

0:22:23.160 --> 0:22:26.479
<v Speaker 4>we're taking risks earlier in our drafts. We're taking the

0:22:26.560 --> 0:22:29.240
<v Speaker 4>trek Scoobles, we're taking the Tyler Glass now, so those

0:22:29.240 --> 0:22:32.200
<v Speaker 4>guys could lose innings. We love Dodger pitchers, Bobby Miller.

0:22:32.400 --> 0:22:35.439
<v Speaker 4>How many innings can he get? We're dealing with the

0:22:35.480 --> 0:22:39.920
<v Speaker 4>world where pitching innings don't really exist at the same

0:22:39.920 --> 0:22:41.240
<v Speaker 4>clip that they did.

0:22:41.040 --> 0:22:41.600
<v Speaker 3>In the past.

0:22:41.800 --> 0:22:44.760
<v Speaker 4>So if you can find this is something I've been preaching,

0:22:44.760 --> 0:22:47.560
<v Speaker 4>If you can find some boring pitchers that can get

0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:49.840
<v Speaker 4>you two hundred innings, they're going to walk themselves into

0:22:49.920 --> 0:22:52.800
<v Speaker 4>some good stats. Bieber might be boring, but he's on

0:22:52.880 --> 0:22:55.520
<v Speaker 4>the uptick back with that fastball. He can get two

0:22:55.560 --> 0:22:59.080
<v Speaker 4>hundred innings easy, and I think he is a main target.

0:22:59.119 --> 0:23:01.480
<v Speaker 4>He's a main target pretty much. Anytime I can SP

0:23:01.640 --> 0:23:05.360
<v Speaker 4>four every time four SP five, doesn't really matter. If

0:23:05.400 --> 0:23:07.280
<v Speaker 4>I have a boring rotation, I have one where I

0:23:07.320 --> 0:23:09.399
<v Speaker 4>had like Yamamoto and Caribe. I know that there's some

0:23:09.560 --> 0:23:11.560
<v Speaker 4>sexiness in that, but like you know, it's kind of

0:23:11.600 --> 0:23:15.639
<v Speaker 4>got a floor. I'll play floor rotations or scary rotations.

0:23:15.680 --> 0:23:16.840
<v Speaker 4>Bieber belongs in both.

0:23:17.520 --> 0:23:20.240
<v Speaker 2>Only five guys through two hundred innings last year. Just

0:23:20.280 --> 0:23:22.879
<v Speaker 2>to put that kind of in perspective, if you go

0:23:22.920 --> 0:23:26.200
<v Speaker 2>back to let's say twenty thirteen, that's just ten years ago.

0:23:26.880 --> 0:23:28.480
<v Speaker 2>We else you want to guess what that number was.

0:23:28.960 --> 0:23:32.320
<v Speaker 3>Oh gosh, yeah, it was probably how many years ago? Thirteen?

0:23:32.600 --> 0:23:33.200
<v Speaker 1>Ten years ago?

0:23:33.440 --> 0:23:37.520
<v Speaker 4>Oh, I'm going to say it's like thirteen guys thirty

0:23:37.520 --> 0:23:39.200
<v Speaker 4>four okay.

0:23:39.240 --> 0:23:44.240
<v Speaker 2>Whoops, and another let's see, looks like another fifteen through

0:23:44.240 --> 0:23:48.080
<v Speaker 2>one hundred and ninety or more so, saying baseball.

0:23:48.040 --> 0:23:49.000
<v Speaker 1>Very different years.

0:23:49.119 --> 0:23:51.560
<v Speaker 4>It's a very different game from pitching, and that's why

0:23:51.640 --> 0:23:53.440
<v Speaker 4>he's kind of a throwback player, and I love the

0:23:53.480 --> 0:23:58.080
<v Speaker 4>idea of a throwback player reincreasing some of their offerings.

0:23:58.119 --> 0:24:00.560
<v Speaker 4>And that's why you know, Bieber in outside the top

0:24:00.600 --> 0:24:01.800
<v Speaker 4>one hundred, it's a great value.

0:24:02.359 --> 0:24:06.080
<v Speaker 2>Even five years ago twenty eighteen, you still had twelve

0:24:06.119 --> 0:24:08.800
<v Speaker 2>guys go over two hundred innings, and looking around this

0:24:08.880 --> 0:24:10.800
<v Speaker 2>over one ninety twenty four.

0:24:10.560 --> 0:24:13.679
<v Speaker 1>Guys, so not bad, I go, that's still kind of decent.

0:24:13.720 --> 0:24:16.560
<v Speaker 2>So the change from ten years ago to five years

0:24:16.560 --> 0:24:20.760
<v Speaker 2>ago to last year, the specialization is tough, and finding

0:24:20.800 --> 0:24:23.679
<v Speaker 2>guys who can go all the way into that one

0:24:23.800 --> 0:24:27.240
<v Speaker 2>eighty range even is getting harder and harder to find.

0:24:27.280 --> 0:24:27.560
<v Speaker 1>All Right.

0:24:27.600 --> 0:24:29.040
<v Speaker 2>The next gut on this list is another one that

0:24:30.040 --> 0:24:32.040
<v Speaker 2>I just continue to see as a huge value. I'm

0:24:32.080 --> 0:24:33.800
<v Speaker 2>gonna try to guess many shares as I possibly can

0:24:33.880 --> 0:24:36.520
<v Speaker 2>with my remaining drafts, but I don't have any yet.

0:24:37.320 --> 0:24:39.159
<v Speaker 2>There's a keeper home league that I'm in that he's

0:24:39.160 --> 0:24:42.400
<v Speaker 2>already being kept, so I'm already out of that business there.

0:24:42.400 --> 0:24:44.560
<v Speaker 2>But Zach Geloff to me, I can keep looking at

0:24:44.600 --> 0:24:47.359
<v Speaker 2>what this kid accomplished last year, and what's so stunning

0:24:47.359 --> 0:24:48.800
<v Speaker 2>to me was what he did in the minor league

0:24:48.840 --> 0:24:50.639
<v Speaker 2>is exactly what did the major leagues. He hit for

0:24:50.760 --> 0:24:53.359
<v Speaker 2>a decent average. He gave you power, he gave you speed.

0:24:53.720 --> 0:24:56.960
<v Speaker 2>Last year sixty nine games for him, fourteen homers, fourteen steals.

0:24:57.240 --> 0:24:59.080
<v Speaker 2>I don't know what more you need him to prove.

0:24:59.160 --> 0:25:01.199
<v Speaker 2>He is basically a twenty twenty guys sitting out there

0:25:01.200 --> 0:25:03.359
<v Speaker 2>at adp of one thirty nine at second base. We

0:25:03.440 --> 0:25:05.560
<v Speaker 2>talked about second base being difficult. We talked about the

0:25:05.600 --> 0:25:07.600
<v Speaker 2>pivot points of Marte. Right, Well, if you miss out

0:25:07.600 --> 0:25:08.639
<v Speaker 2>on Marte, then what do you do?

0:25:08.960 --> 0:25:10.160
<v Speaker 1>Right? That was my backup plan.

0:25:10.200 --> 0:25:12.680
<v Speaker 2>Well, I can't get Albe's, I can't get Simeon all right,

0:25:12.720 --> 0:25:13.600
<v Speaker 2>Well Marte's there?

0:25:13.680 --> 0:25:14.640
<v Speaker 1>Ooh no, that hurt.

0:25:14.680 --> 0:25:15.959
<v Speaker 2>He went off the board. So what do you do?

0:25:16.480 --> 0:25:18.359
<v Speaker 2>Giloff's right there. And the reason why he's floating at

0:25:18.400 --> 0:25:21.320
<v Speaker 2>one thirty nine, folks, is very simple. He plays in Oakland.

0:25:21.400 --> 0:25:23.080
<v Speaker 1>That's it. It's the only thing.

0:25:22.960 --> 0:25:24.760
<v Speaker 2>At this point that I can understand of why he's

0:25:24.760 --> 0:25:26.879
<v Speaker 2>still floating around here. We hype out so many of

0:25:26.920 --> 0:25:30.280
<v Speaker 2>these other prospects all the time of what they can do,

0:25:30.600 --> 0:25:34.400
<v Speaker 2>and yet they haven't had nearly the amount of exposure

0:25:34.400 --> 0:25:36.360
<v Speaker 2>at the major league level that Geiloff had last year,

0:25:36.760 --> 0:25:40.160
<v Speaker 2>So just under seventy games again fourteen, fourteen, two sixty seven.

0:25:40.880 --> 0:25:42.439
<v Speaker 2>He's still gonna hit the top of this order. He

0:25:42.520 --> 0:25:44.280
<v Speaker 2>is still gonna give you power, he's gonna give you speed.

0:25:44.480 --> 0:25:48.800
<v Speaker 2>In salary cap drafts, he is a tremendous value, especially

0:25:48.800 --> 0:25:51.600
<v Speaker 2>in rudeo format. So I'm just saying like, this is

0:25:51.600 --> 0:25:53.919
<v Speaker 2>one of these players that's really floating under the radar.

0:25:54.440 --> 0:25:56.880
<v Speaker 2>Look for some players on bad teams, even though they're

0:25:56.880 --> 0:25:59.720
<v Speaker 2>bad teams, they're still gonna score some runs. And I

0:25:59.760 --> 0:26:01.480
<v Speaker 2>think Oakland is going to be a little bit better

0:26:01.560 --> 0:26:02.320
<v Speaker 2>than it was last year.

0:26:02.400 --> 0:26:03.640
<v Speaker 1>Is really nowhere to go but up.

0:26:03.920 --> 0:26:06.080
<v Speaker 2>But I gotta tell you, this is the one player

0:26:06.119 --> 0:26:08.439
<v Speaker 2>too that I keep circling that if he was playing

0:26:08.480 --> 0:26:10.399
<v Speaker 2>for the Boston Red Sox, if he was playing for

0:26:10.440 --> 0:26:12.440
<v Speaker 2>the Chicago Cubs, if he was playing for any New

0:26:12.480 --> 0:26:15.520
<v Speaker 2>York team or Los Angeles team, we'd be talking a

0:26:15.560 --> 0:26:17.840
<v Speaker 2>lot more about Zach Gaeloff. But instead he plays for

0:26:17.880 --> 0:26:20.119
<v Speaker 2>the A's, so nobody's talking about him, and to me,

0:26:20.520 --> 0:26:23.600
<v Speaker 2>it makes him an enormous bargain because I don't think

0:26:23.600 --> 0:26:25.000
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty is off the table.

0:26:24.800 --> 0:26:25.880
<v Speaker 1>For him at all.

0:26:26.240 --> 0:26:28.320
<v Speaker 2>And you can also argue in a middle infield spot,

0:26:28.640 --> 0:26:30.480
<v Speaker 2>he's probably gonna hit for a better average and give

0:26:30.480 --> 0:26:32.800
<v Speaker 2>you twenty twenty, just like Volpi will, but the better

0:26:32.840 --> 0:26:35.600
<v Speaker 2>batting average will be a Gelloff most likely. So Wels,

0:26:35.680 --> 0:26:37.200
<v Speaker 2>I don't know how you feel about Kailoff, and you

0:26:37.359 --> 0:26:38.560
<v Speaker 2>get to see a lot of these guys out there

0:26:38.600 --> 0:26:40.560
<v Speaker 2>on the West Coast too. Is Gealoff somebody that you've

0:26:40.560 --> 0:26:41.359
<v Speaker 2>been targeting in drafts?

0:26:41.440 --> 0:26:44.080
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, actually just got him in a keeper league, as

0:26:44.440 --> 0:26:46.159
<v Speaker 4>is this dispersal ly draft.

0:26:45.920 --> 0:26:46.440
<v Speaker 3>Type of thing.

0:26:46.640 --> 0:26:49.640
<v Speaker 4>What I like about him is a twenty twenty potential.

0:26:49.680 --> 0:26:52.440
<v Speaker 4>What I don't like about him is he's in Oakland,

0:26:53.200 --> 0:26:55.560
<v Speaker 4>Vegas soon and you know, some of the bad ball

0:26:55.600 --> 0:26:57.359
<v Speaker 4>skills stuff. It's a little bit of concern. There are

0:26:57.440 --> 0:26:58.480
<v Speaker 4>big strikeout warries.

0:26:58.560 --> 0:27:01.440
<v Speaker 3>But what I will tell you said something in interesting like.

0:27:01.480 --> 0:27:03.320
<v Speaker 4>If he was in a big market team, we'd be

0:27:03.320 --> 0:27:06.159
<v Speaker 4>talking about him. It's kind of similar to Anthony Volpi.

0:27:06.320 --> 0:27:09.200
<v Speaker 4>There's a vulpiness to him. Volpi has got some swing

0:27:09.200 --> 0:27:12.800
<v Speaker 4>and mission issues. I think Galoff has bigger strikeout worries

0:27:12.840 --> 0:27:16.159
<v Speaker 4>than Volpi does, but they both got some of those concerns.

0:27:16.240 --> 0:27:18.480
<v Speaker 4>Vulpi is moving up in a lot of ways. We're

0:27:18.480 --> 0:27:19.640
<v Speaker 4>not seeing that with Gealoff.

0:27:19.680 --> 0:27:20.520
<v Speaker 3>I think it's a great target.

0:27:20.560 --> 0:27:23.480
<v Speaker 4>I think it's a you know, draft d a bargain.

0:27:23.560 --> 0:27:26.320
<v Speaker 4>I will say this because he's not on like.

0:27:26.280 --> 0:27:27.800
<v Speaker 3>A Cardinals or something like that.

0:27:27.880 --> 0:27:29.760
<v Speaker 4>He's not getting the buzz He would be a top

0:27:29.800 --> 0:27:31.639
<v Speaker 4>one hundred buzzy type of player. But I won't be

0:27:31.680 --> 0:27:32.960
<v Speaker 4>shocked when he goes twenty twenty.

0:27:33.119 --> 0:27:35.080
<v Speaker 2>Look in twenty twenty two his double See I always

0:27:35.080 --> 0:27:36.880
<v Speaker 2>go to the double A numbers because especially those West

0:27:36.920 --> 0:27:38.720
<v Speaker 2>Coast guys, when they you know, you play in PCL,

0:27:38.840 --> 0:27:40.920
<v Speaker 2>things get inflated. So I'm not even talking about like

0:27:40.960 --> 0:27:43.119
<v Speaker 2>the triple A numbers in twenty twenty three, which were terrific,

0:27:43.200 --> 0:27:44.920
<v Speaker 2>the three oh four, four oh one, five toway nine

0:27:44.920 --> 0:27:47.160
<v Speaker 2>slash that was terrific. Talking about double A. Eighty seven

0:27:47.160 --> 0:27:49.199
<v Speaker 2>games in double A in twenty twenty two. Guess what

0:27:49.960 --> 0:27:54.679
<v Speaker 2>thirteen homers, nine steals, hit two seventy one ops around

0:27:54.680 --> 0:27:57.600
<v Speaker 2>eight hundred, like right on that precipice there. To me,

0:27:57.880 --> 0:27:59.960
<v Speaker 2>this is exactly like this is who he is. He goes,

0:28:00.040 --> 0:28:01.520
<v Speaker 2>I got a little bit. Yeah, that's probably true. I

0:28:01.520 --> 0:28:03.399
<v Speaker 2>think he's a better roto player than a points ly player,

0:28:03.440 --> 0:28:06.320
<v Speaker 2>possibly especially, but I think the volume hitting in the

0:28:06.359 --> 0:28:09.320
<v Speaker 2>two hole in this order could possibly make up for

0:28:09.359 --> 0:28:09.920
<v Speaker 2>any of those.

0:28:09.840 --> 0:28:11.840
<v Speaker 1>Strikeout deficits when it comes to Gelloff. All right, let's

0:28:11.840 --> 0:28:12.920
<v Speaker 1>get another guy on your list.

0:28:13.080 --> 0:28:15.240
<v Speaker 2>You've got another picture, another one of my favorite guys

0:28:15.280 --> 0:28:18.080
<v Speaker 2>I talk about all the time, who is absolutely dominating

0:28:18.320 --> 0:28:20.679
<v Speaker 2>spring training right now, So let's talk about him.

0:28:20.680 --> 0:28:20.920
<v Speaker 1>Welsh.

0:28:21.160 --> 0:28:23.960
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, we're talking about Chota Monica, who has just been

0:28:24.359 --> 0:28:28.399
<v Speaker 4>lights out in spring with the Cubs. Nineteen strikeouts so

0:28:28.560 --> 0:28:31.240
<v Speaker 4>far and what is it, nine and two thirds pitch

0:28:31.320 --> 0:28:34.200
<v Speaker 4>He's only walked a few. We know that the fastball

0:28:34.280 --> 0:28:38.000
<v Speaker 4>has been an absolutely dominant pitch for Showa WBC stuff

0:28:38.040 --> 0:28:40.040
<v Speaker 4>plus numbers were absolutely through the roof.

0:28:40.240 --> 0:28:41.480
<v Speaker 3>He's deceptive in.

0:28:41.480 --> 0:28:46.680
<v Speaker 4>His delivery, he's explosive on the release. Justin Steele talked

0:28:46.760 --> 0:28:49.640
<v Speaker 4>up crazy on him. We've seen the results through spring

0:28:50.240 --> 0:28:52.760
<v Speaker 4>and his cost real. Let me look, I forgot to

0:28:52.760 --> 0:28:55.480
<v Speaker 4>write it down. This is the craziest thing with this

0:28:55.560 --> 0:28:57.880
<v Speaker 4>type of buzz. I think there's a stigma that kind

0:28:57.880 --> 0:29:00.040
<v Speaker 4>of goes around sometimes with a lot of like what

0:29:00.120 --> 0:29:01.520
<v Speaker 4>is the translation gonna look like?

0:29:01.560 --> 0:29:02.160
<v Speaker 3>From uh?

0:29:02.200 --> 0:29:05.320
<v Speaker 4>Players that come over from either Japan or Korea has

0:29:05.320 --> 0:29:08.200
<v Speaker 4>and Kim one of those examples. Pitching is a little

0:29:08.200 --> 0:29:13.000
<v Speaker 4>bit different. Shota has an ADP and average ADP of

0:29:13.240 --> 0:29:17.480
<v Speaker 4>one ninety even going outside the top two hundred in sites.

0:29:17.600 --> 0:29:19.479
<v Speaker 4>Now he is starting to get on a rocket.

0:29:19.520 --> 0:29:21.240
<v Speaker 3>But guess what, even.

0:29:21.000 --> 0:29:24.680
<v Speaker 4>That rocket that's moving up the ADP, it's still a bargain.

0:29:25.400 --> 0:29:28.240
<v Speaker 4>It's not gonna take a ton. It's just gonna take

0:29:28.320 --> 0:29:32.080
<v Speaker 4>innings and relative success that we've seen in Spring for

0:29:32.240 --> 0:29:34.000
<v Speaker 4>him to blow past the value.

0:29:34.000 --> 0:29:34.920
<v Speaker 3>So even if he goes.

0:29:34.800 --> 0:29:38.360
<v Speaker 4>From one ninety EIGHTP and goes up to one point fifty,

0:29:38.720 --> 0:29:41.760
<v Speaker 4>there's still a ton of room for growth, win opportunities

0:29:41.760 --> 0:29:42.440
<v Speaker 4>for the Cubs.

0:29:42.720 --> 0:29:43.880
<v Speaker 3>He's gonna have the support.

0:29:43.880 --> 0:29:45.680
<v Speaker 4>It's not a guy that's gonna be pushed off into

0:29:45.720 --> 0:29:48.640
<v Speaker 4>a bullpen anytime soon. The fastball, the ivy, all the

0:29:49.000 --> 0:29:52.120
<v Speaker 4>release points like, there's some dominant stuff in there that

0:29:52.160 --> 0:29:54.280
<v Speaker 4>we I think is gonna have a really difficult time

0:29:54.320 --> 0:29:57.080
<v Speaker 4>for translation early on. So Shota is a draft d

0:29:57.080 --> 0:29:59.520
<v Speaker 4>a bargain. He is one of the few buzzy players

0:29:59.520 --> 0:30:03.760
<v Speaker 4>from Spring that has not gone and broken past their value.

0:30:03.840 --> 0:30:05.760
<v Speaker 4>So get them go and get them put him in

0:30:05.760 --> 0:30:08.440
<v Speaker 4>the rotation SP five or six.

0:30:08.680 --> 0:30:10.000
<v Speaker 3>There's huge upside.

0:30:10.280 --> 0:30:12.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean, look, I feel good about him as my three.

0:30:12.760 --> 0:30:14.680
<v Speaker 1>I gotta be honest with you, So any spot where

0:30:14.680 --> 0:30:15.040
<v Speaker 1>you can get.

0:30:15.000 --> 0:30:17.240
<v Speaker 2>Him as your four or five, or I don't know

0:30:17.240 --> 0:30:19.120
<v Speaker 2>where you're getting him as your sixth starter, but sign

0:30:19.120 --> 0:30:20.280
<v Speaker 2>me up for that one ninety.

0:30:20.560 --> 0:30:23.680
<v Speaker 4>If you're going around one ninety, I guess I'm looking

0:30:23.680 --> 0:30:24.440
<v Speaker 4>on Fantasy Bros.

0:30:24.520 --> 0:30:24.880
<v Speaker 3>Right now.

0:30:24.960 --> 0:30:28.480
<v Speaker 4>I can see adyps Yahoo. He's got a one eighty

0:30:28.640 --> 0:30:31.400
<v Speaker 4>six eighty P one hundred and eighty six players through

0:30:31.600 --> 0:30:34.320
<v Speaker 4>Do you easily could have four to five pitchers already

0:30:34.320 --> 0:30:36.160
<v Speaker 4>locked in, and then you're putting him at the bottom.

0:30:36.160 --> 0:30:39.240
<v Speaker 4>That's what makes him even more of the draft day bargain.

0:30:39.320 --> 0:30:41.920
<v Speaker 2>All right, back to my list here one sixty seven

0:30:41.960 --> 0:30:44.760
<v Speaker 2>Francisco Alvarez of the New York Mets. Now you know

0:30:44.800 --> 0:30:47.080
<v Speaker 2>I love a player if I love him despite the

0:30:47.120 --> 0:30:49.520
<v Speaker 2>fact that he plays for my Mets, because Alvarez is

0:30:49.520 --> 0:30:51.440
<v Speaker 2>a guy that has thirty home run potential this year

0:30:51.480 --> 0:30:53.400
<v Speaker 2>at catcher. I understand the batting average a bit of

0:30:53.400 --> 0:30:56.120
<v Speaker 2>a drag. I get that, but let's not forget this

0:30:56.200 --> 0:30:58.560
<v Speaker 2>guy was one of the top five prospects.

0:30:58.040 --> 0:30:59.800
<v Speaker 1>In all baseball coming into last year.

0:31:00.080 --> 0:31:03.360
<v Speaker 2>Let's not forget the batting average was much higher over

0:31:03.360 --> 0:31:05.120
<v Speaker 2>the minor league career. Now, he did struggle little bit

0:31:05.160 --> 0:31:08.040
<v Speaker 2>of triple A, but still two seventy three batting average,

0:31:08.040 --> 0:31:10.280
<v Speaker 2>three eighty four on base a five twenty nine slugging

0:31:10.320 --> 0:31:12.960
<v Speaker 2>over two hundred and fifty seven minor league games. Last

0:31:13.040 --> 0:31:15.960
<v Speaker 2>year was about getting comfortable at the major league level.

0:31:16.080 --> 0:31:18.400
<v Speaker 2>He showed you the power. You're learning a pitching staff,

0:31:18.400 --> 0:31:19.600
<v Speaker 2>You're trying to figure out things.

0:31:20.200 --> 0:31:21.320
<v Speaker 1>It's a process.

0:31:21.520 --> 0:31:24.000
<v Speaker 2>Again, He's only gonna be twenty two years old this

0:31:24.080 --> 0:31:25.640
<v Speaker 2>year and he's hitting clean up for the Mets. So

0:31:25.960 --> 0:31:29.440
<v Speaker 2>he is hitting in front of McNeil, but behind Pete Alonzo,

0:31:29.560 --> 0:31:32.440
<v Speaker 2>with Nimo, Lindor and Alonzo all ahead of him.

0:31:32.520 --> 0:31:34.000
<v Speaker 1>What a great situation it is.

0:31:34.480 --> 0:31:37.000
<v Speaker 2>So you have to pitch to Francisco Alvarez in his lineup,

0:31:37.040 --> 0:31:38.560
<v Speaker 2>and I think you're gonna have to quite a bit

0:31:38.720 --> 0:31:40.240
<v Speaker 2>because I think those guys are gonna be on ahead

0:31:40.280 --> 0:31:42.360
<v Speaker 2>of him, and I think that that could mean a

0:31:42.440 --> 0:31:44.120
<v Speaker 2>huge breakout potential for Alvarez.

0:31:44.400 --> 0:31:46.240
<v Speaker 1>And we like some of these other catchers.

0:31:46.280 --> 0:31:49.080
<v Speaker 2>We like Ohape, we like we like Moreno, we like Garber,

0:31:49.160 --> 0:31:51.440
<v Speaker 2>there's some values there. But if I'm gonna circle the

0:31:51.480 --> 0:31:54.040
<v Speaker 2>guy that can hit thirty homers and really be special

0:31:54.080 --> 0:31:55.760
<v Speaker 2>and also dh because they want to get his bat

0:31:55.800 --> 0:31:58.400
<v Speaker 2>in the lineup when he's not catching, it's Francisco Alvarez,

0:31:58.600 --> 0:32:00.840
<v Speaker 2>and I think there's upside for a lot more, but

0:32:00.920 --> 0:32:03.640
<v Speaker 2>also a pretty good value already built in at one

0:32:03.800 --> 0:32:07.080
<v Speaker 2>sixty seven Welsh one more guy on each of our lists,

0:32:07.160 --> 0:32:10.480
<v Speaker 2>So let's get after it. Here your favorite draft day

0:32:10.520 --> 0:32:13.000
<v Speaker 2>bargain remaining on the board at twenty twenty four, and

0:32:13.080 --> 0:32:15.360
<v Speaker 2>he is the cheapest of all the guys that we've

0:32:15.360 --> 0:32:16.240
<v Speaker 2>talked about so far.

0:32:16.400 --> 0:32:16.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I did.

0:32:16.920 --> 0:32:19.920
<v Speaker 4>I ordered mine in kind of a most expensive to

0:32:20.040 --> 0:32:22.600
<v Speaker 4>cheap outside the top two hundred. This has been a

0:32:22.600 --> 0:32:26.680
<v Speaker 4>guy that we've talked a bunch a bunch about, Jamer Candelario.

0:32:26.840 --> 0:32:29.440
<v Speaker 4>So I did say, like Josh Naylor would be such

0:32:29.480 --> 0:32:32.240
<v Speaker 4>a cool corner infielder. It's not gonna happen all the

0:32:32.240 --> 0:32:34.880
<v Speaker 4>time Naylor, especially at fifteen team rodo. He's gonna be

0:32:34.880 --> 0:32:37.640
<v Speaker 4>a top fifteen first basement, So it doesn't always happen,

0:32:37.640 --> 0:32:39.720
<v Speaker 4>So you're gonna have to look elsewhere. When I do,

0:32:40.160 --> 0:32:43.200
<v Speaker 4>it's Jamer Candelario. Who last year hit two fifty one

0:32:43.320 --> 0:32:47.440
<v Speaker 4>twenty two homers, seventy RBI, seventy runs, but now goes

0:32:47.480 --> 0:32:50.920
<v Speaker 4>to Great American Ballpark, gonna play every single day, and

0:32:50.960 --> 0:32:54.440
<v Speaker 4>that explosive young lineup with Elie de la Cruz, Matt

0:32:54.520 --> 0:32:57.720
<v Speaker 4>McClain in front and players fallen left and right. So

0:32:57.720 --> 0:33:00.280
<v Speaker 4>if there's any other question about you know, how how

0:33:00.360 --> 0:33:02.680
<v Speaker 4>is his playing time going to be consistent? It's locked

0:33:02.680 --> 0:33:05.959
<v Speaker 4>in there. This is one of those instances where you

0:33:06.000 --> 0:33:09.800
<v Speaker 4>see projections. After having a fine season twenty nine thirty

0:33:09.880 --> 0:33:13.680
<v Speaker 4>year old, now you see projections beat across the board

0:33:13.800 --> 0:33:17.080
<v Speaker 4>in almost every system. You see the numbers going higher.

0:33:17.200 --> 0:33:20.800
<v Speaker 4>Twenty two homers last year. You look over on the

0:33:20.880 --> 0:33:23.440
<v Speaker 4>bat X, it's right at twenty one, but the batting

0:33:23.480 --> 0:33:26.800
<v Speaker 4>average two fifty two higher than last year. You see

0:33:26.800 --> 0:33:29.920
<v Speaker 4>projections around two sixty. You see RBI numbers even in

0:33:30.040 --> 0:33:32.960
<v Speaker 4>zips up to eighty eight. This is a great place

0:33:33.000 --> 0:33:35.480
<v Speaker 4>to hit with guys that are running in front of him.

0:33:35.640 --> 0:33:38.920
<v Speaker 4>I think the RBI opportunities can get into the nineties.

0:33:39.240 --> 0:33:41.960
<v Speaker 4>I think he can hit around two sixty, and I

0:33:42.000 --> 0:33:44.400
<v Speaker 4>think the home run totals are being under sold. He

0:33:45.200 --> 0:33:47.160
<v Speaker 4>has some of that Josh Naylor in him that he

0:33:47.200 --> 0:33:49.280
<v Speaker 4>can hit for higher batting average, and I wouldn't be

0:33:49.320 --> 0:33:52.840
<v Speaker 4>shocked if you put up a Josh Naylor ninety seven

0:33:53.120 --> 0:33:56.480
<v Speaker 4>RBIs this year. I love Candelario and he qualifies it

0:33:56.600 --> 0:34:00.800
<v Speaker 4>first and third. He is an ultimate draftda bargain. Gotta

0:34:00.840 --> 0:34:05.480
<v Speaker 4>have him on your team, util, corner, infield, whatever it is,

0:34:05.880 --> 0:34:08.360
<v Speaker 4>I want Jamer Candelario. He's one of my favorite players

0:34:08.400 --> 0:34:10.560
<v Speaker 4>to draft. In its post two hundred.

0:34:10.719 --> 0:34:13.000
<v Speaker 2>I have one question when it comes to Candelario, which

0:34:13.040 --> 0:34:14.640
<v Speaker 2>I think is the most important one. And again I

0:34:14.640 --> 0:34:16.239
<v Speaker 2>don't think you have a crystal ball, but I'm gonna

0:34:16.239 --> 0:34:19.000
<v Speaker 2>ask it anyway. When Marte comes back from the suspension,

0:34:19.080 --> 0:34:20.960
<v Speaker 2>is there any chance that he's the one that gets

0:34:20.960 --> 0:34:22.640
<v Speaker 2>squeezed if everybody's healthy.

0:34:22.760 --> 0:34:26.120
<v Speaker 4>I would say one percent chance. Because what originally was

0:34:26.160 --> 0:34:29.120
<v Speaker 4>planned was Candelario was gonna be the everyday first baseman

0:34:29.239 --> 0:34:32.040
<v Speaker 4>that was gonna be his gig. Strand was gonna play

0:34:32.080 --> 0:34:34.600
<v Speaker 4>DH a little bit of first and maybe move around

0:34:34.600 --> 0:34:37.400
<v Speaker 4>in the outfield. So I think they go back to that,

0:34:37.440 --> 0:34:39.319
<v Speaker 4>but we're gonna have a better insight. We've also seen

0:34:39.400 --> 0:34:42.239
<v Speaker 4>Frehley get hurt, TJ Friedl get hurt. We're now gonna

0:34:42.239 --> 0:34:43.759
<v Speaker 4>have to see Benson to see if he can do

0:34:43.800 --> 0:34:46.600
<v Speaker 4>anything more than a split where Spencer Steer sits.

0:34:46.719 --> 0:34:47.800
<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of questions.

0:34:47.920 --> 0:34:50.000
<v Speaker 4>There are a lot of guys out there, but they

0:34:50.120 --> 0:34:53.840
<v Speaker 4>signed Candelario to be the core, the middle, a team

0:34:53.960 --> 0:34:56.680
<v Speaker 4>leader that these guys build around. So no, I don't

0:34:56.680 --> 0:35:00.279
<v Speaker 4>think Candelario is affected in any way. When Noelvie Artake

0:35:00.360 --> 0:35:00.839
<v Speaker 4>comes back.

0:35:01.120 --> 0:35:04.560
<v Speaker 2>All right, last guy for me, there's another veteran, thirty

0:35:04.600 --> 0:35:07.759
<v Speaker 2>seven year old at ADP of one to seventy six.

0:35:07.920 --> 0:35:12.760
<v Speaker 2>You Darvish, Darvish concern was the health well, the elbow

0:35:13.560 --> 0:35:15.440
<v Speaker 2>bone issue that he was able to take care of.

0:35:15.520 --> 0:35:16.799
<v Speaker 1>Everything got cleaned up there.

0:35:17.000 --> 0:35:19.439
<v Speaker 2>No, it was the bone spurs, I believe, correct, Welsh right, correct,

0:35:19.440 --> 0:35:21.480
<v Speaker 2>We's right, that sounds right.

0:35:21.480 --> 0:35:23.240
<v Speaker 1>I'm just making things up. No, it was the bone spurs.

0:35:23.080 --> 0:35:25.680
<v Speaker 2>It's issues and something that Cole Hamill's had years ago too,

0:35:25.760 --> 0:35:27.319
<v Speaker 2>and he got a cleaned up and he was fine

0:35:27.320 --> 0:35:30.440
<v Speaker 2>the next year. So far in spring as of recording this,

0:35:30.560 --> 0:35:34.360
<v Speaker 2>nine innings over three starts for him, ten strikeouts, one walk,

0:35:34.400 --> 0:35:36.960
<v Speaker 2>a one point a zero seven whip, a two eight

0:35:37.080 --> 0:35:39.480
<v Speaker 2>nine ERA over those nine innings Now it's only nine innings,

0:35:39.600 --> 0:35:41.560
<v Speaker 2>but it's important nine innings because it's telling me you

0:35:41.640 --> 0:35:42.480
<v Speaker 2>Darvish is healthy.

0:35:42.800 --> 0:35:44.040
<v Speaker 1>Now you Darfish is healthy.

0:35:44.440 --> 0:35:46.640
<v Speaker 2>This is a guy that has two hundred strikeout potential

0:35:46.640 --> 0:35:50.760
<v Speaker 2>and you're getting him where one seventy six. That's absurd.

0:35:50.760 --> 0:35:53.600
<v Speaker 2>We talked about the Imanaga value at one ninety. Look,

0:35:53.640 --> 0:35:55.080
<v Speaker 2>if these two guys are on the board, I'm still

0:35:55.080 --> 0:35:57.400
<v Speaker 2>gonna take you Darbish every single time because it's a

0:35:57.440 --> 0:35:59.759
<v Speaker 2>proven track record. I know last year was ugly, but

0:35:59.840 --> 0:36:01.480
<v Speaker 2>he still had a three to one strike out to

0:36:01.480 --> 0:36:02.880
<v Speaker 2>walk ratio over those one hundred.

0:36:02.640 --> 0:36:03.520
<v Speaker 1>And thirty six innings.

0:36:03.640 --> 0:36:06.200
<v Speaker 2>It was really a matter of getting that elbow right

0:36:06.280 --> 0:36:08.839
<v Speaker 2>and getting healthy. He was not healthy all of last year.

0:36:09.000 --> 0:36:12.200
<v Speaker 2>We've seen darbaship times have down seasons in rebound. This

0:36:12.239 --> 0:36:13.960
<v Speaker 2>seems like it's setting up for another one. But it's

0:36:14.000 --> 0:36:16.640
<v Speaker 2>scarier every time. And I get why. It's because of

0:36:16.640 --> 0:36:19.120
<v Speaker 2>the age. When you're thirty seven years old, you see

0:36:19.120 --> 0:36:20.920
<v Speaker 2>some of these guys, you know, getting to the late thirties,

0:36:20.960 --> 0:36:23.359
<v Speaker 2>early forties, you see Shurez or Verlander, Kersh all those

0:36:23.360 --> 0:36:24.399
<v Speaker 2>guys starting to break down.

0:36:24.600 --> 0:36:25.399
<v Speaker 1>And that might be the case.

0:36:25.440 --> 0:36:26.800
<v Speaker 2>Maybe he's not a guy w's gonna throw one hundred

0:36:26.840 --> 0:36:29.040
<v Speaker 2>ninety innings ever again, we're gonna give you one hundred

0:36:29.080 --> 0:36:32.880
<v Speaker 2>and sixty. If he does, he's gonna give you phenomenal productivity.

0:36:32.880 --> 0:36:35.040
<v Speaker 2>And the upside's there for more. The Padres are still

0:36:35.040 --> 0:36:37.279
<v Speaker 2>a really good team. I know SODA's not there, but

0:36:37.320 --> 0:36:39.440
<v Speaker 2>they still got bowguards, they still got tattists, They've still

0:36:39.440 --> 0:36:41.960
<v Speaker 2>got Machado, they still got Kim. It's a really good

0:36:42.080 --> 0:36:44.840
<v Speaker 2>rotation too. We started the show talking about how loaded

0:36:45.200 --> 0:36:47.960
<v Speaker 2>the National League West is, talked about the Giants edition

0:36:47.960 --> 0:36:50.000
<v Speaker 2>to SNeW We talked about the juggernaut lineup that is

0:36:50.040 --> 0:36:53.040
<v Speaker 2>the Dodgers, and here are the Padres. Not to mention

0:36:53.120 --> 0:36:55.080
<v Speaker 2>the Arizona diamonbacksh went to the World Series. But the

0:36:55.080 --> 0:36:58.919
<v Speaker 2>Padres here with a rotation that arguably is the best

0:36:58.920 --> 0:37:03.080
<v Speaker 2>one went healthy. Because you're talking about Darvish, King Musgrove,

0:37:03.360 --> 0:37:07.120
<v Speaker 2>cease Man Welsh, the Padres, I don't think are going away.

0:37:07.360 --> 0:37:09.200
<v Speaker 2>And if you Darvish is right, I think this is

0:37:09.239 --> 0:37:12.279
<v Speaker 2>one of the best draft day bargains you're gonna find.

0:37:12.280 --> 0:37:13.960
<v Speaker 2>What do you think about you, Darvish? And are you

0:37:14.040 --> 0:37:16.640
<v Speaker 2>somebody like me that's looking for him everywhere? And taking

0:37:16.640 --> 0:37:17.640
<v Speaker 2>the discount everywhere.

0:37:17.880 --> 0:37:20.759
<v Speaker 4>I would say I actually wrote his name down on

0:37:20.800 --> 0:37:23.520
<v Speaker 4>this started to go, and the only reason I didn't

0:37:23.880 --> 0:37:26.040
<v Speaker 4>was because the airing of this episode was going to

0:37:26.080 --> 0:37:29.719
<v Speaker 4>be after his start, his first start, and it could

0:37:29.800 --> 0:37:32.279
<v Speaker 4>either be really bad or really good. But at the

0:37:32.320 --> 0:37:35.440
<v Speaker 4>end of the day, yes, I want you Darvish, You Darvish.

0:37:35.560 --> 0:37:37.640
<v Speaker 4>He's one of those guys that it could go either way.

0:37:37.680 --> 0:37:40.160
<v Speaker 4>Like the injuries can keep him off. He was pretty

0:37:40.200 --> 0:37:43.080
<v Speaker 4>inconsistent last year, but we know what the stuff is.

0:37:43.160 --> 0:37:45.520
<v Speaker 4>We know when he hones in, he can go deep innings.

0:37:45.520 --> 0:37:49.160
<v Speaker 4>He can be a massive strikeout guy. He can easily

0:37:49.520 --> 0:37:54.239
<v Speaker 4>blow past his ADP and his value and be dare

0:37:54.280 --> 0:37:56.200
<v Speaker 4>I say, like we did the episode League Winning, like

0:37:56.239 --> 0:37:58.640
<v Speaker 4>he could be that type of player with where you're

0:37:58.640 --> 0:38:01.560
<v Speaker 4>getting him, getting a guy you know that is maybe

0:38:01.560 --> 0:38:04.759
<v Speaker 4>the fortieth SP or thirty fifth SP off the board,

0:38:04.800 --> 0:38:06.800
<v Speaker 4>that could be a top ten. They're hard to find

0:38:06.960 --> 0:38:08.720
<v Speaker 4>at this level, and he is one of those guys.

0:38:08.960 --> 0:38:13.280
<v Speaker 4>The problem is the variance. Though I'm taking him wherever

0:38:13.360 --> 0:38:15.000
<v Speaker 4>I can absolutely well.

0:38:15.280 --> 0:38:17.960
<v Speaker 2>Fun fact, last year, you want to take a guess

0:38:18.160 --> 0:38:22.040
<v Speaker 2>where he was on Fantasy Pro's average draft position in

0:38:22.120 --> 0:38:24.759
<v Speaker 2>terms of picture rank where it would be sp what

0:38:25.600 --> 0:38:26.280
<v Speaker 2>last year.

0:38:26.160 --> 0:38:28.759
<v Speaker 4>I mean, I want to say it wasn't super high

0:38:28.800 --> 0:38:32.240
<v Speaker 4>if I remember correctly, was it like twenty eight nineteen?

0:38:32.440 --> 0:38:34.320
<v Speaker 3>Okay, okay, no, it was super high nineteen.

0:38:34.520 --> 0:38:39.360
<v Speaker 2>So again, healthy you Darvish now is being regarded as

0:38:39.520 --> 0:38:43.239
<v Speaker 2>let's see you Darvish right now? Is fifty one the

0:38:43.239 --> 0:38:47.360
<v Speaker 2>fifty first starting pitcher. That's absurd. Something in the middle

0:38:47.960 --> 0:38:51.320
<v Speaker 2>is very likely. But there's also that range of outcomes

0:38:51.320 --> 0:38:54.040
<v Speaker 2>where he gets back to somewhere on the top twenty five,

0:38:54.200 --> 0:38:57.800
<v Speaker 2>and if that happens, that is a huge bargain discount.

0:38:57.840 --> 0:38:59.960
<v Speaker 1>But we want to hear from you. Drop your comments.

0:39:00.560 --> 0:39:03.640
<v Speaker 2>You tell Welsh and myself who your favorite draft day

0:39:03.640 --> 0:39:05.879
<v Speaker 2>bargains are of twenty twenty four. Let's all help each

0:39:05.880 --> 0:39:08.240
<v Speaker 2>other out here. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel,

0:39:08.239 --> 0:39:10.680
<v Speaker 2>but when you do, not only drop your comments, but

0:39:10.840 --> 0:39:13.360
<v Speaker 2>also make sure you ring that bell for notifications, you know,

0:39:13.400 --> 0:39:16.080
<v Speaker 2>every time a piece of content drop. Here on the channel,

0:39:16.160 --> 0:39:18.640
<v Speaker 2>we've got the podcast, the short form videos, we've got

0:39:18.680 --> 0:39:21.000
<v Speaker 2>the social shorts on here, the YouTube shorts, but we've

0:39:21.000 --> 0:39:24.200
<v Speaker 2>also got Leading Off Live starting Thursday the twenty eighth,

0:39:24.400 --> 0:39:26.759
<v Speaker 2>where Welsh and I are gonna wig out because you

0:39:26.800 --> 0:39:29.759
<v Speaker 2>guys are amazing, and now we have seventeen thousand subscribers

0:39:29.800 --> 0:39:31.880
<v Speaker 2>on the channel. We want to get it to twenty.

0:39:31.880 --> 0:39:33.680
<v Speaker 2>God knows it kind of stupid. We'll do it twenty,

0:39:33.920 --> 0:39:36.160
<v Speaker 2>but at seventeen we're gonna be wearing our wigs. I'm

0:39:36.160 --> 0:39:39.000
<v Speaker 2>gonna order mine right after recording this today. Hopefully Welsh's

0:39:39.040 --> 0:39:42.319
<v Speaker 2>landing on his because you know the two day Amazon Prime.

0:39:42.360 --> 0:39:44.200
<v Speaker 2>You got to get the wigs here ready to go.

0:39:44.320 --> 0:39:47.640
<v Speaker 2>So join us live twelve thirty Eastern Time every Monday

0:39:47.680 --> 0:39:51.719
<v Speaker 2>through Thursday again, starting on the twenty eighth, that's Thursday

0:39:51.840 --> 0:39:54.279
<v Speaker 2>Opening Day. It's gonna be a glorious time. We're gonna

0:39:54.320 --> 0:39:55.960
<v Speaker 2>have a lot of fun. We're gonna talk a lot

0:39:55.960 --> 0:39:58.200
<v Speaker 2>of baseball, and we're gonna win a lot. That's what

0:39:58.239 --> 0:39:59.960
<v Speaker 2>we're gonna do. We win a lot of leagues, all right,

0:40:00.120 --> 0:40:01.440
<v Speaker 2>that'll do it for us. But the story of the

0:40:01.480 --> 0:40:02.480
<v Speaker 2>game goes on for the Welsh.

0:40:02.520 --> 0:40:04.719
<v Speaker 1>I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time.

0:40:04.840 --> 0:40:05.160
<v Speaker 2>Kids.

0:40:05.440 --> 0:40:06.439
<v Speaker 1>Enjoy your bargain hunting