Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy pros. This is the Fantasy
Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast.
Speaker 2: This is Joe Pisapia here with me as always is
Speaker 2: the Welsh, and it's time to take.
Speaker 1: A look at some draft day bargains.
Speaker 2: We've got twelve names for you that we think are
Speaker 2: just priced right for you to get the most Fantasy
Speaker 2: baseball goodness out of.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: Before we get to those names, Welsh, we did have
Speaker 2: a signing finally, after what seems like the most eternally
Speaker 2: long offseason ever for certain guys, including Blake SNeW who
Speaker 2: now finds himself on the San Francisco Giants. He joins
Speaker 2: Logan Webb at the top of that rotation. So before
Speaker 2: we dive into some bargain hunting, this is I think
Speaker 2: a must sign kind of for the Giants. They desperately
Speaker 2: needed somebody else there with Webb, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks
Speaker 2: and Keaton Win right now, those are the back end
Speaker 2: starters for this rotation. But let's talk about Blake snell
Speaker 2: two year deal. There is an opt out, but certainly
Speaker 2: a great win for the Giants, escially because didn't have
Speaker 2: to commit a very long term contract to it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's what they've been doing.
Speaker 4: They've been not committing these big long term contracts to
Speaker 4: be competitive in this division where the Dodgers or powerhouses.
Speaker 3: You know, the Podgers.
Speaker 4: Made some interesting moves, but they've been a little flatlined
Speaker 4: until the Dylan C's trade Diamondbacks. Obviously, World Series, you
Speaker 4: want to stay competitive. This is a great way to
Speaker 4: do it. And they're setting themselves up where you've got
Speaker 4: a one two punch of Web and Snell for the
Speaker 4: foreseeable future if healthy on the back end, and they
Speaker 4: were to make a playoff run, they got Robbie Ray.
Speaker 4: So this is a big l for Scott Boris and
Speaker 4: the money. At least Snell did get, you know, a
Speaker 4: thirty million dollars deal per year, and it looks like
Speaker 4: he's going to be able to have his opt outs.
Speaker 4: But what is so fascinating is we were out the precipice.
Speaker 4: We were about to explode where we were going to
Speaker 4: say we can't draft Blake Snell. It was already getting there.
Speaker 4: We can't do it, we can't do it. But then
Speaker 4: we find out.
Speaker 1: Not a current ADP. We couldn't, but well, the.
Speaker 4: ADP was high, it was in the sixties, but then
Speaker 4: over the last week on NFBC had been moving down
Speaker 4: into the eighties. That's what I'm saying, three or four
Speaker 4: days from it moving down into like post one, you know,
Speaker 4: fifty or something like that. But we got the word
Speaker 4: a couple days ago that he did pitch a full
Speaker 4: four inning simulated game, which kind of shows how he's
Speaker 4: been ramping up. I think there's a decent possibility that
Speaker 4: the ramp up is going to be minimal and maybe
Speaker 4: he misses just like a game or two, or they
Speaker 4: just skip in the rotation. This is a great destination
Speaker 4: and I think we can be a little bit optimistic,
Speaker 4: and hopefully not sure we will, but hopefully we can
Speaker 4: take the discount on Snell if you're in the Snell market,
Speaker 4: because he's a little polarizing.
Speaker 1: He is.
Speaker 2: Boy, what a great division to Arizona go into a
Speaker 2: World Series last year the Juggernaut Dodgers. Now the Giants
Speaker 2: kind of Hey, I was saying, hey, we're gonna be
Speaker 2: competitive in this thing too, and they were busy this offseason.
Speaker 2: They went out there and they signed sol Air, Junghu Lee,
Speaker 2: Matt Chapman. So the Giants are making moves out there,
Speaker 2: which is good. You want teams to be spending money
Speaker 2: on players, not just pocketing it. So that's a good thing,
Speaker 2: good environment for Blake Snell, and still where he's got
Speaker 2: to go out there and performance on some seven deal
Speaker 2: where we can just kind of rest on the laurels.
Speaker 2: So let's get into some of the draft day bargains
Speaker 2: everybody we're talking about.
Speaker 1: These are players.
Speaker 2: Going from somewhere between one hundred to two hundred and
Speaker 2: ADP overall consensus, which you can find at fantasypros dot com.
Speaker 2: Of course on our rankings page for MLB. You can
Speaker 2: also find the draftkit on there, which is free, so
Speaker 2: you could check.
Speaker 1: That out also.
Speaker 2: So Welsh, why don't you kick things off with a guy?
Speaker 2: And you got to the show sheet first? This was
Speaker 2: the first guy I was gonna run to, really, and
Speaker 2: you put him in the show sheet? So turn about
Speaker 2: is fair play?
Speaker 3: My friend, Ah, I did not know that this was
Speaker 3: gonna happen.
Speaker 4: That's a great thing to hear, by the way, you know,
Speaker 4: differentiating a lot of the different topics we've talked about,
Speaker 4: and this is, you know, a brand new one of
Speaker 4: draft day bargains. It lives in the same general family
Speaker 4: as you know, the breakouts and the sleepers and stuff
Speaker 4: like that. But the identification here clearly is like, these
Speaker 4: guys are really good deals at what they do. Upside
Speaker 4: is I'm not really sure, but where they're going just
Speaker 4: doesn't quite make sense to what they produce. And that
Speaker 4: player that jumps out to me is katel Marte. No
Speaker 4: homerism attached. Put it aside here. I know my a
Speaker 4: Diamondbacks fan, but katel Marte last season two seventy six average,
Speaker 4: twenty five homers, ninety four runs, eighty two RBI, and
Speaker 4: eight stolen bases. Projections have him in the twenty homers again,
Speaker 4: have him near the ten stolen bases anywhere from the
Speaker 4: high eighties on. Really both the run and RBI numbers,
Speaker 4: everything is still in play. After low strikeout numbers, he
Speaker 4: had a double digit walk rate and his actual hitting profile.
Speaker 4: He increased his hard hit percentage this past year. He
Speaker 4: increased year over year his barrel percentage, his expected batting average.
Speaker 4: His expected numbers were within a general space of where
Speaker 4: it needs to be. And one thing Katel has always done,
Speaker 4: he actually did at the highest degree. He always is
Speaker 4: one of those guys that is one of the hardest
Speaker 4: hit balls in baseball. Every single season, you're going to
Speaker 4: find the leader board for the max EV top ten.
Speaker 4: Katel's going to get in there, but his average EV
Speaker 4: they could and sometimes kind of float around, Like here's
Speaker 4: an example in twenty eighteen with the Diamondbacks. He had
Speaker 4: a one fifteen point one MaxV but an eighty eight average.
Speaker 4: So the average hits well. Last year was tied for
Speaker 4: a career high of ninety one point one. So she's
Speaker 4: been making better contact, finding some comfort in stealing. Maybe
Speaker 4: the Diamonbacks are gonna want to steal a little bit more.
Speaker 4: But the big important thing here is the low ADP.
Speaker 4: It pushes near outside the top one hundred, and when
Speaker 4: you look at the scope of the second basement that
Speaker 4: are out there. I'm not saying you don't take Azzi
Speaker 4: Albi's to take katl Marte, but the line between Ozzi
Speaker 4: Albi's atka tell Marte, especially considering the ADP value, is.
Speaker 3: Something to pay attention to. And not all positions have this.
Speaker 4: I've said that, like, I don't think I personally don't
Speaker 4: think third base has that close of a line. I
Speaker 4: don't think first base necessarily has that line, outfield shortan.
Speaker 4: You know they can all do that second base. There
Speaker 4: are some good depthy options and Katel Marte I think
Speaker 4: is one of the best draft day bargains.
Speaker 1: I could not agree more.
Speaker 2: This was again the first guy that came into my
Speaker 2: mind when we were talking about this topic. And so
Speaker 2: you could take Welsh's homerism even if he had it
Speaker 2: for Marte off the table because I'm co sunning this
Speaker 2: as well.
Speaker 1: You mentioned that pivot. If you don't get Simmy, you
Speaker 1: don't get Albi's. This is the pivot.
Speaker 2: I mean, what a fantastic guy right around one hundred.
Speaker 2: Speaking of guys going around one hundred, at one oh three,
Speaker 2: says Azuki, who I actually just drafted in our last
Speaker 2: mock draft, and after I took him, I was like,
Speaker 2: you know, why don't I have more shares of this guy?
Speaker 2: And last year, going into the season, I was a
Speaker 2: little bit skeptical even as rookie year, I was somebody saying, look,
Speaker 2: let's pump the brakes, let's see what this guy is.
Speaker 2: He was pretty good in twenty twenty two. I wouldn't
Speaker 2: say he was great. Two sixty batting average, fourteen homers
Speaker 2: and only played one hundred and eleven games. He missed
Speaker 2: some time with injury. Last year, he missed some time
Speaker 2: with injury two but one hundred and thirty eight games.
Speaker 2: He saw the power develop a little bit more twenty
Speaker 2: homers for him, the batting average jump twenty points over
Speaker 2: a longer period of time. You'll love to see the
Speaker 2: growth there. You see the walk rate is around ten percent.
Speaker 2: That's really solid. And would you consider Welsh That outfield
Speaker 2: is so problematic and you're looking for a guy with
Speaker 2: decent value. I'm looking at the project right now. He's
Speaker 2: gonna hit in the two hole in this order, in
Speaker 2: front of Cody Bellinger, behind me and half. That's a
Speaker 2: really good spot to be a good favorable home ball park.
Speaker 2: Seventy seven runs, twenty two homers, seventy five ribies, nine steals.
Speaker 1: That feels pretty good.
Speaker 2: Now, have him been a two seventy batting average, even
Speaker 2: if he just kind of matches this at adp of
Speaker 2: one oho three, I think that's a really good value.
Speaker 2: But if you add in the possibility that that run
Speaker 2: total if the Cubs do what I think the Cubs
Speaker 2: are capable of doing, which is not only competing but
Speaker 2: maybe winning this division. You're only gonna run total over
Speaker 2: the ninety mark if he hits that, If he gets
Speaker 2: from twenty two and runs to maybe squeaks out twenty five,
Speaker 2: if he can get that stolen base total into double
Speaker 2: digits and maybe maintain that two to eighty batting average,
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a really special player at this return.
Speaker 2: And I think as an outfielder three slash four, you
Speaker 2: could do a lot worse than say a Suzuki. And
Speaker 2: I again, I think he just gets passed over. You know,
Speaker 2: he's a guy we kind of take for grinting a
Speaker 2: little bit, and I don't think we should. Well, she's
Speaker 2: the next guy on your list in terms of draft
Speaker 2: day bargains.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just want to throw out, like I try
Speaker 4: to get my shares of Suzuki, I just cannot forget them.
Speaker 3: I want them.
Speaker 4: He's like a chasing amey, Like I'm always chasing Suzuki
Speaker 4: and I can't quite get to him.
Speaker 1: That's one of the lesser Kevin Smith movies, Chasing It's
Speaker 1: coming out. Let's see that one. It used to be
Speaker 1: on IFC a lot and then they pulled it.
Speaker 3: Sequel coming out in Fall. You're gonna love it. But
Speaker 3: I agree because it.
Speaker 1: Hit with a fourth Clerks movie. How many Clerks movies
Speaker 1: do we have?
Speaker 3: Now we have two? We have two too many. We
Speaker 3: were good with just one.
Speaker 4: So all right, but number two I'm actually gonna stick
Speaker 4: in the outfield and I'm gonna go with Taoscar Hernandez.
Speaker 4: Taoscar Hernandez with an ADP average of one oh eight.
Speaker 4: Not one site has him inside the top one hundred.
Speaker 4: As a matter of fact, even ESPN has got him
Speaker 4: around one forty nine, so almost one fifty. Now why
Speaker 4: ta Oscar Hernandez. Well, you're getting him out of the
Speaker 4: bad ballpark in Seattle where he still hit twenty six
Speaker 4: ommers last year ninety three RBIs with a two to
Speaker 4: fifty eight batting average. His batting average is sunk the
Speaker 4: last three years, but we haven't dipped under two fifty
Speaker 4: and we had bad ballpark factors. Really, frankly, if you're
Speaker 4: looking at like even like Toronto to Seattle and now
Speaker 4: you're going to the Dodgers where it's better. But also
Speaker 4: the offense, that's the big major focus is what this
Speaker 4: offense is going to be. You've got a guy forty
Speaker 4: nine point four percent hard hit rate, this past season,
Speaker 4: he sits between forty eight and fifty two, so big
Speaker 4: hard hit numbers. He gets the ball in the air,
Speaker 4: he hits the ball hard thirteen point eight percent barrel percentage.
Speaker 4: Those are hitting metrics that we love. Those go along
Speaker 4: with sustainable expected stats. His expected batting average was actually
Speaker 4: the exact same number as his batting average. And at
Speaker 4: the end of the day, you give me a power
Speaker 4: bat like that in a better ballpark, on a better team,
Speaker 4: that's going to turn the lineup over more. He's going
Speaker 4: to have more opportunity that could move him up the lineup. Now,
Speaker 4: sure this lineup is so good, he could be hitting
Speaker 4: six or seven, but the RBI opportunities are going to
Speaker 4: be there. If you want to look at some of
Speaker 4: the projection systems, ATC has twenty six homers two sixty
Speaker 4: one with seven stolen bases. The bat X twenty nine homers,
Speaker 4: ten stolen bases, eighty plus on the run RBIs with
Speaker 4: a two to sixty eight batting average. I think he
Speaker 4: is crossing thirty good shot at thirty five homers this year,
Speaker 4: and he's going outside the top one hundred. Outfield can
Speaker 4: get kind of pretty quick. It can get away from you.
Speaker 4: But Taoscar Hernandez, even in a three outfielder league, I
Speaker 4: think is a prime target. In a three outfielder league,
Speaker 4: if you can already have two guys, he's your third.
Speaker 4: In a five outfielder league, even more priority because that
Speaker 4: power back. The value of the really the four categories
Speaker 4: with a little sprinkle of stolen bases is immense. In
Speaker 4: one of the best lineups in baseball, Taskar Hernandez a
Speaker 4: definite draft day bargain.
Speaker 2: His career high one hundred and sixteen RBI back in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, Welsh, I think he could match that.
Speaker 2: I think he can go over one hundred this year
Speaker 2: in this Dodger lineup if everyone stays healthy and this Dodger.
Speaker 1: Lineup does what it's supposed to do.
Speaker 2: And you mentioned about like that outfield cliff that we
Speaker 2: always talk about.
Speaker 1: If you're in a five active outfielder.
Speaker 2: League, you have to be looking around this range here
Speaker 2: we mentioned Suzuki mentioned Hernandez. I've got another one on
Speaker 2: my list here, Lane Thomas, who you know, everyone's just
Speaker 2: yelling about regression, yelling about regression, even if he regresses.
Speaker 2: I keep coming back to the same thing and I
Speaker 2: know I've mentioned him on other shows before, but I
Speaker 2: want to drive this home.
Speaker 1: At eightp of one oh nine.
Speaker 2: The projections right now, twenty two homers, eighty one run scored,
Speaker 2: seventy three rbi, fifteen steels, two fifty batting average. So
Speaker 2: you're giving me twenty fifteen. Okay, last year it was
Speaker 2: twenty eight twenty. That was absurdly good. I keep saying.
Speaker 2: If we just looked at the numbers and took away
Speaker 2: Lane Thomas, took away the fact he plays for the Nationals,
Speaker 2: we'd be talking about this guy as a third round pick.
Speaker 2: But instead we're talking about him at eightp of one
Speaker 2: oh nine. Why because he plays for the Nationals. Because
Speaker 2: people don't believe him. In twenty twenty two, again he
Speaker 2: only hit two forty, but he still had the seventeen
Speaker 2: homers and eight stone bases. You saw the jump forward
Speaker 2: this past season, and I am buying in to Lane
Speaker 2: Thomas again. It doesn't cost you a lot here for
Speaker 2: that baseline, and the projections of that baseline I think
Speaker 2: are very fair, and you already know that he's good
Speaker 2: enough to go above them because he just did it
Speaker 2: last year. So is he a perfect guy?
Speaker 4: Know?
Speaker 2: Still heading towards the top of that order. I know,
Speaker 2: the three twenty five babbit, you know, inflated the average
Speaker 2: of two sixty eight a little bit.
Speaker 1: I get that, but.
Speaker 2: At the same time, I still think this is a
Speaker 2: player with power and speed that can really help you
Speaker 2: in those rotal formats and again a value in the outfield.
Speaker 2: Before we get to the next guys on our list too,
Speaker 2: I just want to remind everybody this is that time
Speaker 2: where most of you've done your drafts already. So if
Speaker 2: you haven't already sink your leagues, if you missed out
Speaker 2: on the draft season opportunity, there's still plenty of time
Speaker 2: sink your leagues for free over our Fantasy Pros and
Speaker 2: use the tools and use my playbook, because my playbook
Speaker 2: is going to give you that personalized league dashboard for
Speaker 2: all your leagues I mentioned.
Speaker 1: I could set all your lineups there. For premium members too.
Speaker 2: You can do all kinds of amazing things with like analysis,
Speaker 2: projected stats, waiver wire, ad drops, all these incredible things.
Speaker 2: But basically, what the MLB my playbook gives you is
Speaker 2: custom news, custom brankings, custom analysis, and it gives you
Speaker 2: all that ability to control all your teams in one spot,
Speaker 2: which I gotta say, like that is the biggest time
Speaker 2: suck ever when you're in multiple leagues. I've on this platform.
Speaker 2: I got two leagues on that platform, three leagues on
Speaker 2: that platform.
Speaker 1: It's crazy.
Speaker 4: You know what, Bob, his oldest top bagman, has told
Speaker 4: me to our dear friend Bagman that he is now
Speaker 4: in a space where he will only play if it's
Speaker 4: on one league. He's like, I only want to play
Speaker 4: on this platform because he doesn't want to move. Well,
Speaker 4: my playbook fixes that because now you can go and
Speaker 4: play on all the platforms and change it in one spot,
Speaker 4: which that's all that anybody really wants.
Speaker 1: Go check it out yourself.
Speaker 2: Fantasybros dot com, slash MLB My Playbook or just download
Speaker 2: the MLB My Playbook app and sink your leagues for
Speaker 2: free and see what we're talking about.
Speaker 1: Because this is going to save you time.
Speaker 2: It's going to give you the right answers to setting
Speaker 2: your lineup, to analyzing trades, to making waiverire pickups. You
Speaker 2: could see all the free agents in every single league
Speaker 2: that you're in and then just go and add them.
Speaker 2: It's crazy.
Speaker 1: Good check it out today.
Speaker 2: Welsh let's check out the next guy on your list
Speaker 2: for bargains in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's funny.
Speaker 4: Bargains definitely can have a feel kind of boring, and
Speaker 4: I think this guy might have a boring feel. But
Speaker 4: the whole the reason behind that again is like they're
Speaker 4: just such good value at where they're going. One of
Speaker 4: these guys we've talked about, they haven't moved a whole
Speaker 4: bunch of value. And this is another one of those
Speaker 4: that has shown up in different episodes. The guy I'm
Speaker 4: going to give you uh has an ADP right around
Speaker 4: one thirty, and it's Josh Naylor. Josh Naylor with the Guardians,
Speaker 4: who last year put up some absurd RBI numbers in
Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty one games, ninety seven RBI, he
Speaker 4: had double digit stolen bases, seventeen homers again one hundred
Speaker 4: and twenty one games. He also hit over three hundred.
Speaker 4: This spring, he's over three hundred again. He's not striking out.
Speaker 4: He's even stolen a couple more bases. The hitting profile
Speaker 4: of Nayler is solid. Expected batting average supports his really
Speaker 4: good batting average. It was a two to ninety three
Speaker 4: last year, which was in the upper echelon of the league.
Speaker 3: Again, the barrel percentage of solid.
Speaker 4: He gets the ball in the air, he hits the
Speaker 4: ball hard, he hits in the middle of the order.
Speaker 4: Projections love him because of the high batting average, and
Speaker 4: that is something that gets away from us. So I
Speaker 4: mean two things we could pretty easily identify what gets
Speaker 4: away from us in drafts from a hitting perspective, the
Speaker 4: outfield position and batting average. And Josh Naylor he devoids that.
Speaker 4: The power potential might not be like what we've talked
Speaker 4: about with ti Oscar Hernandez, but I think the floors
Speaker 4: in the twenties, the ceiling is around thirty. He's gonna
Speaker 4: have a prime RBI spot because there's a lot of
Speaker 4: guys that run in front of him. That team does
Speaker 4: score a lot of runs, and he even sneakily steals
Speaker 4: some bases. So here's what I love about Josh Naylor.
Speaker 4: You screw up on first base. He's great. He's not
Speaker 4: a big power bat, but he's great. What he also
Speaker 4: does is he allows you to go a little bit
Speaker 4: more power later. Maybe you want to snag a Jorges
Speaker 4: Silaire and then in corner infield. You want to get
Speaker 4: a Reese Hoskins boom.
Speaker 3: But guess what.
Speaker 4: Also, let's say you go early first base, go to
Speaker 4: Pete Alonzo, who I think you should take with elite power.
Speaker 4: Little question on batting average. Guess what you can swoop
Speaker 4: in post one hundred. Get a corner infielder in Josh
Speaker 4: Naylor who supports really high batting average, good RBI numbers,
Speaker 4: sneaky stolen bases. There's at least three categories in there.
Speaker 4: Josh Naylor is a draft day bargain for show.
Speaker 2: Sick of me be talking about Josh Nayler, So I'm
Speaker 2: only going to say this. You mentioned maybe the powers
Speaker 2: behind a little bit. He slugged four eighty nine last
Speaker 2: year in one hundred and twenty one games. I know
Speaker 2: it only equivalated to seventeen homers, but I know extrapolations
Speaker 2: a little dangerous. But if you just pushed that number
Speaker 2: just a little bit, twenty two to twenty five is
Speaker 2: not out of the question here. He's didn't clean up
Speaker 2: in this lineup. As you mentioned, Jimenez, Kwan and Ramirez
Speaker 2: all ahead of him. There's gonna be plenty of RBI opportunities.
Speaker 2: There were plenty. Last year he drove in ninety plus runs. Already,
Speaker 2: I'm telling.
Speaker 1: You I am in. I'm all in, especially if you
Speaker 1: get him as your corner guy.
Speaker 2: Man, I love Naylor. He gives you a batting average
Speaker 2: more pop than you might realize.
Speaker 4: Also, I want to give you credit. You created a
Speaker 4: Welsh's in there. You said equivalated. Yeah, I think you
Speaker 4: created a new word.
Speaker 2: You quick related the equivalations my friends, my friends come here,
Speaker 2: you comfort the baseball, you stay for the equivalations.
Speaker 4: We equivolated Josh Naylor to be he meant to say equivalent.
Speaker 4: I know, No, it was a great word. It was
Speaker 4: a great word that I just wanted to be highlights.
Speaker 4: That's something I would do and it would go in
Speaker 4: the Welsh book.
Speaker 1: That is a d This is what happens when you
Speaker 1: spend too much time with the Welsh.
Speaker 2: Eventually you start to sound like him, and before I
Speaker 2: know I'll be wearing baseball caps on every show.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: Number three on my list here going through the next
Speaker 2: one is Andre's Munos, the closer for the Seattle Mariners.
Speaker 2: We talked recently Welsh about having your plan and how
Speaker 2: you want to approach relief pitcher. If you have mandatory
Speaker 2: RP slots, it changes the dynamic a little bit. If
Speaker 2: you don't, I still like playing the waiver wire. I
Speaker 2: like to wait and let the market come to me
Speaker 2: a little bit. This is exactly where I like the
Speaker 2: market to come because I feel like Munios has that
Speaker 2: chance to jump a tier.
Speaker 1: He's going at one eleven overall.
Speaker 2: Last year ninety six strike excuse me, two years ago,
Speaker 2: ninety six strikeouts and sixty five innings. Last year sixty
Speaker 2: seven strikeouts and fort nine innings. Right, So this is
Speaker 2: a player that you know the strikeout's going to be
Speaker 2: there so far the last two years, both the eras
Speaker 2: under three. So he has dominant type stuff.
Speaker 1: He has the job.
Speaker 2: It's a terrific team that's going to give him a
Speaker 2: ton of save opportunities because this is a tremendous pitching staff.
Speaker 2: This is not like some half assed taf we we're
Speaker 2: talking about like some premium guys. George Kirby could win
Speaker 2: a saw young according to Welsh, and he might not
Speaker 2: be wrong here. I actually put some money on it
Speaker 2: a little bit just in case he is right that way.
Speaker 2: I'm making some money on what Welsh says. But you've
Speaker 2: got Gilbert, You've got Kirby, You've got Luis Castillo at
Speaker 2: the top of this rotation. You got Bryce Miller and
Speaker 2: Brian wu at the backhand. It feels like every day
Speaker 2: there's a chance for a quality start and a chance
Speaker 2: to get the ball into Munoz's hand to get a safe.
Speaker 1: He could save forty games this year.
Speaker 2: And I know, like saves can be tricky in terms of,
Speaker 2: you know, it's hard to gauge exactly whether it's gonna be.
Speaker 1: But usually the perfect storm for saves.
Speaker 2: Is a good offense, not a great offense, and a
Speaker 2: really good pitching staff. And I feel like Seattle kind
Speaker 2: of encapsulates that. Right they got the one big star
Speaker 2: guy in Julio. The rest of the offense is good.
Speaker 2: There's still a big bad away from being with the
Speaker 2: big boys, but that pitching staff is very good. They're
Speaker 2: gonna be in a lot of games where I think
Speaker 2: they're gonna have leads because of the pitching staff, but
Speaker 2: not blowing teams out on a daily basis because they
Speaker 2: don't have a juggernaut line up has Otani and Betts
Speaker 2: and Freeman in it. So I'm looking at Munos and
Speaker 2: I'm saying, yeah, this is exactly where I want to
Speaker 2: be taking this guy. To me, this is the sweet
Speaker 2: spot of closers. Evan Phillips is in there, Munjos is
Speaker 2: in there right. It's that group of guys that I
Speaker 2: like to target. So Munyos to me, he gives you
Speaker 2: everything you're looking for in terms of the strikeout upside.
Speaker 2: You know it's going to be there. You know the
Speaker 2: safe opportunities are going to be there too. He saved
Speaker 2: just thirteen games last year and forty one in things,
Speaker 2: but again, he'd have the job.
Speaker 1: The whole time this year.
Speaker 2: It could be a big difference in terms of what
Speaker 2: that safe total might be. But also, I was so
Speaker 2: hyped about this guy last year. I'm just doubling down
Speaker 2: because I know how good he can be.
Speaker 1: So Welsh.
Speaker 2: I don't know about you, but this is to me
Speaker 2: the sweet spot where Phillips Munos. I like those two guys,
Speaker 2: but Munhos especially too, because I think he still will
Speaker 2: go cheaper than Phillips every single time.
Speaker 3: Phillips is my guy, but I like Munos more.
Speaker 4: With the Matt Brash injury, because Matt Brash one of
Speaker 4: the best pitches in baseball, and that's sweeper slider. But
Speaker 4: that injury set him back a little bit, and I
Speaker 4: think that's just more of a reason to not take
Speaker 4: Munios out of it, especially if it's something nursing all year.
Speaker 3: So I like it. But I'm a Phillips guy, but
Speaker 3: I don't hate your mind.
Speaker 2: I like Phillips too, but I still say, in most drafts,
Speaker 2: you're gonna Phillips because he's a Dodger. He's gonna go
Speaker 2: ahead and maybe Munios you get ten picks later. But
Speaker 2: that's almost like the warning signal that goes up or
Speaker 2: you go, oh boom, there's Phillips.
Speaker 1: Okay, I like your logic.
Speaker 4: I want to point out I liked your logic of like,
Speaker 4: these are great pictures that can go six or seven.
Speaker 4: This is an offense that might not blow any teams out.
Speaker 4: They could be playing a ton of close games because
Speaker 4: the pitching staff is going to keep them in. The
Speaker 4: offense is fine, and there might be a lot of
Speaker 4: save opportunities. So I like that logic.
Speaker 2: All right, let's get back to you here because you've
Speaker 2: got a picture as well. Actually two more pictures to
Speaker 2: talk about, so let's get to this first one here,
Speaker 2: who's on your draft, Dave Bargain.
Speaker 1: Listen the on the mound.
Speaker 4: Well, we're gonna stay with the Guardians. And again the
Speaker 4: boring is gonna kind of show itself here, but that's
Speaker 4: okay because we're gonna just take bargains.
Speaker 3: This guy have been very critical of.
Speaker 4: But we've seen a huge positive sign in spring and
Speaker 4: that is VLO increase. And we're talking about Shane Bieber, who,
Speaker 4: by the way, has an ADP right next to Naylor.
Speaker 4: It's one twenty six on average, but again it floats around.
Speaker 4: He goes as low as like one sixty in NFBC,
Speaker 4: in the early one CBS around one thirty three. And
Speaker 4: the thing about Bieber's he's gonna eat innings. We know
Speaker 4: that last year he started walking a little bit more.
Speaker 4: The strikeout numbers they took this really really increased a
Speaker 4: heavy decrease overall in velocity over the last two seasons,
Speaker 4: averaging ninety one point three both seasons. But he's up
Speaker 4: to ninety four on average in spring. Again, that's the
Speaker 4: sweet sauce. That's the thing that we needed. Even in
Speaker 4: twenty twenty two, when the VELO decrease started, you still
Speaker 4: have the slider and the knuckle curve with a forty
Speaker 4: percent whiff rate. All of those everything dramatically dropped last year,
Speaker 4: but we're back with increased ve low and I think
Speaker 4: that is a great sign for Shane Bieber because Bieber
Speaker 4: is going to eat innings. He is the guy they're
Speaker 4: going to put out there as much. Twenty two he
Speaker 4: had one hundred and I had two hundred innings last
Speaker 4: year due to injuries set him back.
Speaker 3: He's still twenty eight years old.
Speaker 4: Also think if the Guardians get out of it, Bieber
Speaker 4: is a prime trade candidate and he's a guy that
Speaker 4: is going to frontline a rotation.
Speaker 3: I think the fall of Biaber in his.
Speaker 4: Value is why we've got to target him now because
Speaker 4: we're taking risks earlier in our drafts. We're taking the
Speaker 4: trek Scoobles, we're taking the Tyler Glass now, so those
Speaker 4: guys could lose innings. We love Dodger pitchers, Bobby Miller.
Speaker 4: How many innings can he get? We're dealing with the
Speaker 4: world where pitching innings don't really exist at the same
Speaker 4: clip that they did.
Speaker 3: In the past.
Speaker 4: So if you can find this is something I've been preaching,
Speaker 4: If you can find some boring pitchers that can get
Speaker 4: you two hundred innings, they're going to walk themselves into
Speaker 4: some good stats. Bieber might be boring, but he's on
Speaker 4: the uptick back with that fastball. He can get two
Speaker 4: hundred innings easy, and I think he is a main target.
Speaker 4: He's a main target pretty much. Anytime I can SP
Speaker 4: four every time four SP five, doesn't really matter. If
Speaker 4: I have a boring rotation, I have one where I
Speaker 4: had like Yamamoto and Caribe. I know that there's some
Speaker 4: sexiness in that, but like you know, it's kind of
Speaker 4: got a floor. I'll play floor rotations or scary rotations.
Speaker 4: Bieber belongs in both.
Speaker 2: Only five guys through two hundred innings last year. Just
Speaker 2: to put that kind of in perspective, if you go
Speaker 2: back to let's say twenty thirteen, that's just ten years ago.
Speaker 2: We else you want to guess what that number was.
Speaker 3: Oh gosh, yeah, it was probably how many years ago? Thirteen?
Speaker 1: Ten years ago?
Speaker 4: Oh, I'm going to say it's like thirteen guys thirty
Speaker 4: four okay.
Speaker 2: Whoops, and another let's see, looks like another fifteen through
Speaker 2: one hundred and ninety or more so, saying baseball.
Speaker 1: Very different years.
Speaker 4: It's a very different game from pitching, and that's why
Speaker 4: he's kind of a throwback player, and I love the
Speaker 4: idea of a throwback player reincreasing some of their offerings.
Speaker 4: And that's why you know, Bieber in outside the top
Speaker 4: one hundred, it's a great value.
Speaker 2: Even five years ago twenty eighteen, you still had twelve
Speaker 2: guys go over two hundred innings, and looking around this
Speaker 2: over one ninety twenty four.
Speaker 1: Guys, so not bad, I go, that's still kind of decent.
Speaker 2: So the change from ten years ago to five years
Speaker 2: ago to last year, the specialization is tough, and finding
Speaker 2: guys who can go all the way into that one
Speaker 2: eighty range even is getting harder and harder to find.
Speaker 1: All Right.
Speaker 2: The next gut on this list is another one that
Speaker 2: I just continue to see as a huge value. I'm
Speaker 2: gonna try to guess many shares as I possibly can
Speaker 2: with my remaining drafts, but I don't have any yet.
Speaker 2: There's a keeper home league that I'm in that he's
Speaker 2: already being kept, so I'm already out of that business there.
Speaker 2: But Zach Geloff to me, I can keep looking at
Speaker 2: what this kid accomplished last year, and what's so stunning
Speaker 2: to me was what he did in the minor league
Speaker 2: is exactly what did the major leagues. He hit for
Speaker 2: a decent average. He gave you power, he gave you speed.
Speaker 2: Last year sixty nine games for him, fourteen homers, fourteen steals.
Speaker 2: I don't know what more you need him to prove.
Speaker 2: He is basically a twenty twenty guys sitting out there
Speaker 2: at adp of one thirty nine at second base. We
Speaker 2: talked about second base being difficult. We talked about the
Speaker 2: pivot points of Marte. Right, Well, if you miss out
Speaker 2: on Marte, then what do you do?
Speaker 1: Right? That was my backup plan.
Speaker 2: Well, I can't get Albe's, I can't get Simeon all right,
Speaker 2: Well Marte's there?
Speaker 1: Ooh no, that hurt.
Speaker 2: He went off the board. So what do you do?
Speaker 2: Giloff's right there. And the reason why he's floating at
Speaker 2: one thirty nine, folks, is very simple. He plays in Oakland.
Speaker 1: That's it. It's the only thing.
Speaker 2: At this point that I can understand of why he's
Speaker 2: still floating around here. We hype out so many of
Speaker 2: these other prospects all the time of what they can do,
Speaker 2: and yet they haven't had nearly the amount of exposure
Speaker 2: at the major league level that Geiloff had last year,
Speaker 2: So just under seventy games again fourteen, fourteen, two sixty seven.
Speaker 2: He's still gonna hit the top of this order. He
Speaker 2: is still gonna give you power, he's gonna give you speed.
Speaker 2: In salary cap drafts, he is a tremendous value, especially
Speaker 2: in rudeo format. So I'm just saying like, this is
Speaker 2: one of these players that's really floating under the radar.
Speaker 2: Look for some players on bad teams, even though they're
Speaker 2: bad teams, they're still gonna score some runs. And I
Speaker 2: think Oakland is going to be a little bit better
Speaker 2: than it was last year.
Speaker 1: Is really nowhere to go but up.
Speaker 2: But I gotta tell you, this is the one player
Speaker 2: too that I keep circling that if he was playing
Speaker 2: for the Boston Red Sox, if he was playing for
Speaker 2: the Chicago Cubs, if he was playing for any New
Speaker 2: York team or Los Angeles team, we'd be talking a
Speaker 2: lot more about Zach Gaeloff. But instead he plays for
Speaker 2: the A's, so nobody's talking about him, and to me,
Speaker 2: it makes him an enormous bargain because I don't think
Speaker 2: twenty twenty is off the table.
Speaker 1: For him at all.
Speaker 2: And you can also argue in a middle infield spot,
Speaker 2: he's probably gonna hit for a better average and give
Speaker 2: you twenty twenty, just like Volpi will, but the better
Speaker 2: batting average will be a Gelloff most likely. So Wels,
Speaker 2: I don't know how you feel about Kailoff, and you
Speaker 2: get to see a lot of these guys out there
Speaker 2: on the West Coast too. Is Gealoff somebody that you've
Speaker 2: been targeting in drafts?
Speaker 4: Yeah, actually just got him in a keeper league, as
Speaker 4: is this dispersal ly draft.
Speaker 3: Type of thing.
Speaker 4: What I like about him is a twenty twenty potential.
Speaker 4: What I don't like about him is he's in Oakland,
Speaker 4: Vegas soon and you know, some of the bad ball
Speaker 4: skills stuff. It's a little bit of concern. There are
Speaker 4: big strikeout warries.
Speaker 3: But what I will tell you said something in interesting like.
Speaker 4: If he was in a big market team, we'd be
Speaker 4: talking about him. It's kind of similar to Anthony Volpi.
Speaker 4: There's a vulpiness to him. Volpi has got some swing
Speaker 4: and mission issues. I think Galoff has bigger strikeout worries
Speaker 4: than Volpi does, but they both got some of those concerns.
Speaker 4: Vulpi is moving up in a lot of ways. We're
Speaker 4: not seeing that with Gealoff.
Speaker 3: I think it's a great target.
Speaker 4: I think it's a you know, draft d a bargain.
Speaker 4: I will say this because he's not on like.
Speaker 3: A Cardinals or something like that.
Speaker 4: He's not getting the buzz He would be a top
Speaker 4: one hundred buzzy type of player. But I won't be
Speaker 4: shocked when he goes twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: Look in twenty twenty two his double See I always
Speaker 2: go to the double A numbers because especially those West
Speaker 2: Coast guys, when they you know, you play in PCL,
Speaker 2: things get inflated. So I'm not even talking about like
Speaker 2: the triple A numbers in twenty twenty three, which were terrific,
Speaker 2: the three oh four, four oh one, five toway nine
Speaker 2: slash that was terrific. Talking about double A. Eighty seven
Speaker 2: games in double A in twenty twenty two. Guess what
Speaker 2: thirteen homers, nine steals, hit two seventy one ops around
Speaker 2: eight hundred, like right on that precipice there. To me,
Speaker 2: this is exactly like this is who he is. He goes,
Speaker 2: I got a little bit. Yeah, that's probably true. I
Speaker 2: think he's a better roto player than a points ly player,
Speaker 2: possibly especially, but I think the volume hitting in the
Speaker 2: two hole in this order could possibly make up for
Speaker 2: any of those.
Speaker 1: Strikeout deficits when it comes to Gelloff. All right, let's
Speaker 1: get another guy on your list.
Speaker 2: You've got another picture, another one of my favorite guys
Speaker 2: I talk about all the time, who is absolutely dominating
Speaker 2: spring training right now, So let's talk about him.
Speaker 1: Welsh.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're talking about Chota Monica, who has just been
Speaker 4: lights out in spring with the Cubs. Nineteen strikeouts so
Speaker 4: far and what is it, nine and two thirds pitch
Speaker 4: He's only walked a few. We know that the fastball
Speaker 4: has been an absolutely dominant pitch for Showa WBC stuff
Speaker 4: plus numbers were absolutely through the roof.
Speaker 3: He's deceptive in.
Speaker 4: His delivery, he's explosive on the release. Justin Steele talked
Speaker 4: up crazy on him. We've seen the results through spring
Speaker 4: and his cost real. Let me look, I forgot to
Speaker 4: write it down. This is the craziest thing with this
Speaker 4: type of buzz. I think there's a stigma that kind
Speaker 4: of goes around sometimes with a lot of like what
Speaker 4: is the translation gonna look like?
Speaker 3: From uh?
Speaker 4: Players that come over from either Japan or Korea has
Speaker 4: and Kim one of those examples. Pitching is a little
Speaker 4: bit different. Shota has an ADP and average ADP of
Speaker 4: one ninety even going outside the top two hundred in sites.
Speaker 4: Now he is starting to get on a rocket.
Speaker 3: But guess what, even.
Speaker 4: That rocket that's moving up the ADP, it's still a bargain.
Speaker 4: It's not gonna take a ton. It's just gonna take
Speaker 4: innings and relative success that we've seen in Spring for
Speaker 4: him to blow past the value.
Speaker 3: So even if he goes.
Speaker 4: From one ninety EIGHTP and goes up to one point fifty,
Speaker 4: there's still a ton of room for growth, win opportunities
Speaker 4: for the Cubs.
Speaker 3: He's gonna have the support.
Speaker 4: It's not a guy that's gonna be pushed off into
Speaker 4: a bullpen anytime soon. The fastball, the ivy, all the
Speaker 4: release points like, there's some dominant stuff in there that
Speaker 4: we I think is gonna have a really difficult time
Speaker 4: for translation early on. So Shota is a draft d
Speaker 4: a bargain. He is one of the few buzzy players
Speaker 4: from Spring that has not gone and broken past their value.
Speaker 4: So get them go and get them put him in
Speaker 4: the rotation SP five or six.
Speaker 3: There's huge upside.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I feel good about him as my three.
Speaker 1: I gotta be honest with you, So any spot where
Speaker 1: you can get.
Speaker 2: Him as your four or five, or I don't know
Speaker 2: where you're getting him as your sixth starter, but sign
Speaker 2: me up for that one ninety.
Speaker 4: If you're going around one ninety, I guess I'm looking
Speaker 4: on Fantasy Bros.
Speaker 3: Right now.
Speaker 4: I can see adyps Yahoo. He's got a one eighty
Speaker 4: six eighty P one hundred and eighty six players through
Speaker 4: Do you easily could have four to five pitchers already
Speaker 4: locked in, and then you're putting him at the bottom.
Speaker 4: That's what makes him even more of the draft day bargain.
Speaker 2: All right, back to my list here one sixty seven
Speaker 2: Francisco Alvarez of the New York Mets. Now you know
Speaker 2: I love a player if I love him despite the
Speaker 2: fact that he plays for my Mets, because Alvarez is
Speaker 2: a guy that has thirty home run potential this year
Speaker 2: at catcher. I understand the batting average a bit of
Speaker 2: a drag. I get that, but let's not forget this
Speaker 2: guy was one of the top five prospects.
Speaker 1: In all baseball coming into last year.
Speaker 2: Let's not forget the batting average was much higher over
Speaker 2: the minor league career. Now, he did struggle little bit
Speaker 2: of triple A, but still two seventy three batting average,
Speaker 2: three eighty four on base a five twenty nine slugging
Speaker 2: over two hundred and fifty seven minor league games. Last
Speaker 2: year was about getting comfortable at the major league level.
Speaker 2: He showed you the power. You're learning a pitching staff,
Speaker 2: You're trying to figure out things.
Speaker 1: It's a process.
Speaker 2: Again, He's only gonna be twenty two years old this
Speaker 2: year and he's hitting clean up for the Mets. So
Speaker 2: he is hitting in front of McNeil, but behind Pete Alonzo,
Speaker 2: with Nimo, Lindor and Alonzo all ahead of him.
Speaker 1: What a great situation it is.
Speaker 2: So you have to pitch to Francisco Alvarez in his lineup,
Speaker 2: and I think you're gonna have to quite a bit
Speaker 2: because I think those guys are gonna be on ahead
Speaker 2: of him, and I think that that could mean a
Speaker 2: huge breakout potential for Alvarez.
Speaker 1: And we like some of these other catchers.
Speaker 2: We like Ohape, we like we like Moreno, we like Garber,
Speaker 2: there's some values there. But if I'm gonna circle the
Speaker 2: guy that can hit thirty homers and really be special
Speaker 2: and also dh because they want to get his bat
Speaker 2: in the lineup when he's not catching, it's Francisco Alvarez,
Speaker 2: and I think there's upside for a lot more, but
Speaker 2: also a pretty good value already built in at one
Speaker 2: sixty seven Welsh one more guy on each of our lists,
Speaker 2: So let's get after it. Here your favorite draft day
Speaker 2: bargain remaining on the board at twenty twenty four, and
Speaker 2: he is the cheapest of all the guys that we've
Speaker 2: talked about so far.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I did.
Speaker 4: I ordered mine in kind of a most expensive to
Speaker 4: cheap outside the top two hundred. This has been a
Speaker 4: guy that we've talked a bunch a bunch about, Jamer Candelario.
Speaker 4: So I did say, like Josh Naylor would be such
Speaker 4: a cool corner infielder. It's not gonna happen all the
Speaker 4: time Naylor, especially at fifteen team rodo. He's gonna be
Speaker 4: a top fifteen first basement, So it doesn't always happen,
Speaker 4: So you're gonna have to look elsewhere. When I do,
Speaker 4: it's Jamer Candelario. Who last year hit two fifty one
Speaker 4: twenty two homers, seventy RBI, seventy runs, but now goes
Speaker 4: to Great American Ballpark, gonna play every single day, and
Speaker 4: that explosive young lineup with Elie de la Cruz, Matt
Speaker 4: McClain in front and players fallen left and right. So
Speaker 4: if there's any other question about you know, how how
Speaker 4: is his playing time going to be consistent? It's locked
Speaker 4: in there. This is one of those instances where you
Speaker 4: see projections. After having a fine season twenty nine thirty
Speaker 4: year old, now you see projections beat across the board
Speaker 4: in almost every system. You see the numbers going higher.
Speaker 4: Twenty two homers last year. You look over on the
Speaker 4: bat X, it's right at twenty one, but the batting
Speaker 4: average two fifty two higher than last year. You see
Speaker 4: projections around two sixty. You see RBI numbers even in
Speaker 4: zips up to eighty eight. This is a great place
Speaker 4: to hit with guys that are running in front of him.
Speaker 4: I think the RBI opportunities can get into the nineties.
Speaker 4: I think he can hit around two sixty, and I
Speaker 4: think the home run totals are being under sold. He
Speaker 4: has some of that Josh Naylor in him that he
Speaker 4: can hit for higher batting average, and I wouldn't be
Speaker 4: shocked if you put up a Josh Naylor ninety seven
Speaker 4: RBIs this year. I love Candelario and he qualifies it
Speaker 4: first and third. He is an ultimate draftda bargain. Gotta
Speaker 4: have him on your team, util, corner, infield, whatever it is,
Speaker 4: I want Jamer Candelario. He's one of my favorite players
Speaker 4: to draft. In its post two hundred.
Speaker 2: I have one question when it comes to Candelario, which
Speaker 2: I think is the most important one. And again I
Speaker 2: don't think you have a crystal ball, but I'm gonna
Speaker 2: ask it anyway. When Marte comes back from the suspension,
Speaker 2: is there any chance that he's the one that gets
Speaker 2: squeezed if everybody's healthy.
Speaker 4: I would say one percent chance. Because what originally was
Speaker 4: planned was Candelario was gonna be the everyday first baseman
Speaker 4: that was gonna be his gig. Strand was gonna play
Speaker 4: DH a little bit of first and maybe move around
Speaker 4: in the outfield. So I think they go back to that,
Speaker 4: but we're gonna have a better insight. We've also seen
Speaker 4: Frehley get hurt, TJ Friedl get hurt. We're now gonna
Speaker 4: have to see Benson to see if he can do
Speaker 4: anything more than a split where Spencer Steer sits.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of questions.
Speaker 4: There are a lot of guys out there, but they
Speaker 4: signed Candelario to be the core, the middle, a team
Speaker 4: leader that these guys build around. So no, I don't
Speaker 4: think Candelario is affected in any way. When Noelvie Artake
Speaker 4: comes back.
Speaker 2: All right, last guy for me, there's another veteran, thirty
Speaker 2: seven year old at ADP of one to seventy six.
Speaker 2: You Darvish, Darvish concern was the health well, the elbow
Speaker 2: bone issue that he was able to take care of.
Speaker 1: Everything got cleaned up there.
Speaker 2: No, it was the bone spurs, I believe, correct, Welsh right, correct,
Speaker 2: We's right, that sounds right.
Speaker 1: I'm just making things up. No, it was the bone spurs.
Speaker 2: It's issues and something that Cole Hamill's had years ago too,
Speaker 2: and he got a cleaned up and he was fine
Speaker 2: the next year. So far in spring as of recording this,
Speaker 2: nine innings over three starts for him, ten strikeouts, one walk,
Speaker 2: a one point a zero seven whip, a two eight
Speaker 2: nine ERA over those nine innings Now it's only nine innings,
Speaker 2: but it's important nine innings because it's telling me you
Speaker 2: Darvish is healthy.
Speaker 1: Now you Darfish is healthy.
Speaker 2: This is a guy that has two hundred strikeout potential
Speaker 2: and you're getting him where one seventy six. That's absurd.
Speaker 2: We talked about the Imanaga value at one ninety. Look,
Speaker 2: if these two guys are on the board, I'm still
Speaker 2: gonna take you Darbish every single time because it's a
Speaker 2: proven track record. I know last year was ugly, but
Speaker 2: he still had a three to one strike out to
Speaker 2: walk ratio over those one hundred.
Speaker 1: And thirty six innings.
Speaker 2: It was really a matter of getting that elbow right
Speaker 2: and getting healthy. He was not healthy all of last year.
Speaker 2: We've seen darbaship times have down seasons in rebound. This
Speaker 2: seems like it's setting up for another one. But it's
Speaker 2: scarier every time. And I get why. It's because of
Speaker 2: the age. When you're thirty seven years old, you see
Speaker 2: some of these guys, you know, getting to the late thirties,
Speaker 2: early forties, you see Shurez or Verlander, Kersh all those
Speaker 2: guys starting to break down.
Speaker 1: And that might be the case.
Speaker 2: Maybe he's not a guy w's gonna throw one hundred
Speaker 2: ninety innings ever again, we're gonna give you one hundred
Speaker 2: and sixty. If he does, he's gonna give you phenomenal productivity.
Speaker 2: And the upside's there for more. The Padres are still
Speaker 2: a really good team. I know SODA's not there, but
Speaker 2: they still got bowguards, they still got tattists, They've still
Speaker 2: got Machado, they still got Kim. It's a really good
Speaker 2: rotation too. We started the show talking about how loaded
Speaker 2: the National League West is, talked about the Giants edition
Speaker 2: to SNeW We talked about the juggernaut lineup that is
Speaker 2: the Dodgers, and here are the Padres. Not to mention
Speaker 2: the Arizona diamonbacksh went to the World Series. But the
Speaker 2: Padres here with a rotation that arguably is the best
Speaker 2: one went healthy. Because you're talking about Darvish, King Musgrove,
Speaker 2: cease Man Welsh, the Padres, I don't think are going away.
Speaker 2: And if you Darvish is right, I think this is
Speaker 2: one of the best draft day bargains you're gonna find.
Speaker 2: What do you think about you, Darvish? And are you
Speaker 2: somebody like me that's looking for him everywhere? And taking
Speaker 2: the discount everywhere.
Speaker 4: I would say I actually wrote his name down on
Speaker 4: this started to go, and the only reason I didn't
Speaker 4: was because the airing of this episode was going to
Speaker 4: be after his start, his first start, and it could
Speaker 4: either be really bad or really good. But at the
Speaker 4: end of the day, yes, I want you Darvish, You Darvish.
Speaker 4: He's one of those guys that it could go either way.
Speaker 4: Like the injuries can keep him off. He was pretty
Speaker 4: inconsistent last year, but we know what the stuff is.
Speaker 4: We know when he hones in, he can go deep innings.
Speaker 4: He can be a massive strikeout guy. He can easily
Speaker 4: blow past his ADP and his value and be dare
Speaker 4: I say, like we did the episode League Winning, like
Speaker 4: he could be that type of player with where you're
Speaker 4: getting him, getting a guy you know that is maybe
Speaker 4: the fortieth SP or thirty fifth SP off the board,
Speaker 4: that could be a top ten. They're hard to find
Speaker 4: at this level, and he is one of those guys.
Speaker 4: The problem is the variance. Though I'm taking him wherever
Speaker 4: I can absolutely well.
Speaker 2: Fun fact, last year, you want to take a guess
Speaker 2: where he was on Fantasy Pro's average draft position in
Speaker 2: terms of picture rank where it would be sp what
Speaker 2: last year.
Speaker 4: I mean, I want to say it wasn't super high
Speaker 4: if I remember correctly, was it like twenty eight nineteen?
Speaker 3: Okay, okay, no, it was super high nineteen.
Speaker 2: So again, healthy you Darvish now is being regarded as
Speaker 2: let's see you Darvish right now? Is fifty one the
Speaker 2: fifty first starting pitcher. That's absurd. Something in the middle
Speaker 2: is very likely. But there's also that range of outcomes
Speaker 2: where he gets back to somewhere on the top twenty five,
Speaker 2: and if that happens, that is a huge bargain discount.
Speaker 1: But we want to hear from you. Drop your comments.
Speaker 2: You tell Welsh and myself who your favorite draft day
Speaker 2: bargains are of twenty twenty four. Let's all help each
Speaker 2: other out here. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel,
Speaker 2: but when you do, not only drop your comments, but
Speaker 2: also make sure you ring that bell for notifications, you know,
Speaker 2: every time a piece of content drop. Here on the channel,
Speaker 2: we've got the podcast, the short form videos, we've got
Speaker 2: the social shorts on here, the YouTube shorts, but we've
Speaker 2: also got Leading Off Live starting Thursday the twenty eighth,
Speaker 2: where Welsh and I are gonna wig out because you
Speaker 2: guys are amazing, and now we have seventeen thousand subscribers
Speaker 2: on the channel. We want to get it to twenty.
Speaker 2: God knows it kind of stupid. We'll do it twenty,
Speaker 2: but at seventeen we're gonna be wearing our wigs. I'm
Speaker 2: gonna order mine right after recording this today. Hopefully Welsh's
Speaker 2: landing on his because you know the two day Amazon Prime.
Speaker 2: You got to get the wigs here ready to go.
Speaker 2: So join us live twelve thirty Eastern Time every Monday
Speaker 2: through Thursday again, starting on the twenty eighth, that's Thursday
Speaker 2: Opening Day. It's gonna be a glorious time. We're gonna
Speaker 2: have a lot of fun. We're gonna talk a lot
Speaker 2: of baseball, and we're gonna win a lot. That's what
Speaker 2: we're gonna do. We win a lot of leagues, all right,
Speaker 2: that'll do it for us. But the story of the
Speaker 2: game goes on for the Welsh.
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time.
Speaker 2: Kids.
Speaker 1: Enjoy your bargain hunting