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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our NFL Week three Sunday Recap episode. I am

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Speaker 1: Chad Milman and I am joined by my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my campadre, my co host, Professional Better, Simon Hunter, et. Oh.

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Speaker 1: So I'm in let me ask you a question for

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Speaker 1: a bee. Is it possible that we are already out

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Speaker 1: smarting ourselves? We're going to get into it, but I

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Speaker 1: feel like we left some serious wins on the board today.

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Speaker 1: And like when you get on the call and I

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Speaker 1: get on the call to do the podcast, and we

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Speaker 1: both look at each other and we're like, how did

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Speaker 1: we end up with this game in our final five?

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Speaker 1: I feel like our process went way way wrong.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely had some regrets. I don't know what the

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Speaker 2: hell happened to us. We were on such a clear

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Speaker 2: path on Thursday and we just got totally totally off

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Speaker 2: the tracks on Sunday. So we might have to start

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Speaker 2: doing your plan, which is putting our picks in on Thursday,

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Speaker 2: and then if we want, if we need to change,

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Speaker 2: and we will, but I think you're right. I think

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Speaker 2: we need to avoid Sunday because we were locked in

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Speaker 2: this weekend.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, had some some bad misses.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder of The Favorites podcast is presented by

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Speaker 1: Bet three six five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.

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Speaker 1: They believe that every sport should be epic, every touchdown,

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Speaker 1: every game, every point, every play, from the moments that

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Speaker 1: are legendary to the ones that fly under the radar.

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Speaker 1: C for yourself when you sign up today with Code Action,

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Speaker 1: whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet three six five,

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Speaker 1: present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. If

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Speaker 1: you or someone you know has a gambling problem and

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Speaker 1: wants help, call one eight hundred gambler that's in Colorado,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia or one eight hundred bets

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Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply even though producer

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Speaker 1: Tito is not here tonight. If I don't say you

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Speaker 1: can catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube

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Speaker 1: and you don't subscribe, and you don't give us a

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Speaker 1: like he's gonna be very upset, So please do it,

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Speaker 1: do it for Tito. Oh boy, Simon, Simon.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: We had Denver plus five and a half. We had

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Speaker 1: Atlanta plus three and a half. We had Carolina plus

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Speaker 1: five and a half. We had Houston plus seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. We had New Orleans plus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: We are two and three on the day. Our last

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Speaker 1: bet in Denver plus five and a half, our last

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Speaker 1: out New England minus two and a half. This was

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Speaker 1: a weird, weird, freaking day. And let me just say this, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I want to point something out. On Thursday when we locked.

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Speaker 1: We liked the Texans, we liked the Pats, the Saints Cleveland,

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Speaker 1: we liked Las Vegas, we liked Denver, and we liked

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Speaker 1: the Bucks. So we had four teams that we really

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Speaker 1: really liked that we were ready to roll with on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: And somehow only a couple of those made it in

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Speaker 1: and the rest were flyers, which was unreal. What happened

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Speaker 1: to us? Let's start with Houston, Houston plus seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. Never in question. You got that right, You

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Speaker 1: got that right?

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Speaker 3: So got that live.

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Speaker 1: We thought, we thought the Jags could not compete. We

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Speaker 1: thought the Jags way overrated. Talk about CJ. Shroud because

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Speaker 1: you had been on CJ. Stroud for more than a

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Speaker 1: week saying he's the best rookie quarterback in today. I

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Speaker 1: thought he looked he kind of looked extraordinary. He made

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence look like he was regressing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty pretty impressive game by CJ. But it was

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Speaker 2: definitely just Trevor Lawrence meltdown. Like as much as I

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Speaker 2: want to take credit for, you know, he did make

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Speaker 2: some good throws.

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Speaker 3: CJ.

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Speaker 2: And Houston's offense did look good. That was all Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 2: I mean that they're the secondary is terribly banged up

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Speaker 2: for Houston and the Jaguars could not move the ball.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, every day, even though Tennessee lost, I still

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Speaker 2: am still feeling pretty good about our divisional vet on Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: But the Houston stuff's weird, like they're just that team

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Speaker 2: no matter how bad or how good the Jaguars are,

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Speaker 2: it seems like they own the Jaguars. So happy we

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Speaker 2: stayed away from them. Survivor Jaguars did take a hard

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Speaker 2: look at that number, and yeah, like I know, we

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Speaker 2: were scared off because we had both got nine and

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Speaker 2: a half and ten on this number with Houston, but

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Speaker 2: even at seven and a half, we were just like,

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Speaker 2: this is too good of a number, like such a

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Speaker 2: key number, seven and a half, and it's such a

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Speaker 2: good matchup. Yeah, Luckily we didn't talk ourselves out of

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Speaker 2: that one, one of the.

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Speaker 1: Few that we didn't talk ourselves out of. The Jacks

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Speaker 1: have not been good all season, and they made C. J.

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Speaker 1: Stroud like they looking back, you know, you can always

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Speaker 1: do the transitive property right, and you sort of can

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Speaker 1: can have some twenty twenty hindsight. That game against the

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Speaker 1: Colts turns out they were incredibly lucky. The Colts might

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Speaker 1: be much better than we thought they were. That game

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Speaker 1: against the Chiefs turns out they probably should have lost

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Speaker 1: thirty four to nine or whatever it was, because the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs had four hundred yards in the game and you know,

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Speaker 1: average six yards per play. And then we saw what

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Speaker 1: they did today against the Bears, which is still you know,

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Speaker 1: a high school defense. But J. Stroud C J. Stroud

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Speaker 1: had to play I don't know if you saw this play,

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Speaker 1: if you were able to see this, during their second

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Speaker 1: scoring drive, everybody was covered. They were deep in Jaguars territory.

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Speaker 1: He had a wide open field and it almost looked

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Speaker 1: like it looked like he was jogging, and not in

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Speaker 1: a lackadaisical way, but sort of I know what I

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Speaker 1: have in front of me, let me keep my eyes downfield,

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Speaker 1: I know what my options are. I'm gonna make the

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Speaker 1: right move. It was a very veteran, savvy in control

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Speaker 1: of the offense, understanding what the defense is giving in

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Speaker 1: front of him move and I just was I was

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Speaker 1: incredibly impressed.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's as good.

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Speaker 2: So my biggest takeaway from like in that game was glad,

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Speaker 2: we bet it's TJ's good.

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Speaker 3: But like you just said, something's wrong with Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 2: So that's something we'll definitely be talking about this upcoming week.

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Speaker 1: In the look aheadline, the Jags were four and a

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Speaker 1: half point underdogs. I believe at with Pittsburgh visiting in

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Speaker 1: week four, I need to check and make sure that

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Speaker 1: line is holding up here at bet three sixty five,

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Speaker 1: give me one second here they are now three point Nope,

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Speaker 1: that's Houston. I met Houston, not the Jacks. Houston is

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Speaker 1: a three point dog at home against the Steelers. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if We'll probably want to wait and see

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Speaker 1: what happens with the game tonight.

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Speaker 3: But I'm already gonna grab it, all right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well we'll put that in there. I'm gonna grab.

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Speaker 2: Even if Pittsburgh wins, this might move to three and

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Speaker 2: a half, but this just feels like a nice number

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Speaker 2: for this Houston team at home.

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Speaker 1: Yep. Look, they're gonna have momentum for sure, all right,

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Speaker 1: Houston plus three, We'll talk to you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, even though it's a nice letdown spot after a

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Speaker 2: big divisional win, we're still taking. It's a home dog like,

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Speaker 2: that's a good number for a team that's not as

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Speaker 2: bad as they are publicly perceived.

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Speaker 1: New Orleans plus one and five plus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: That was our other win today. This was a last

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Speaker 1: minute surprise entry, and we only did this because we

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Speaker 1: got confirmation while you and I were on the phone

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Speaker 1: that David Baktiari left tackle, Christian Watson, best wide receiver

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Speaker 1: j R. Alexander best cornerback, and Aaron Jones best running

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Speaker 1: back would be out. The Saints had moved from plus

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Speaker 1: one and a half to a short favorite, so the

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Speaker 1: contest was giving us a better number, so we didn't

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Speaker 1: hesitate and like it was the right play. We got

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Speaker 1: very lucky after Janis came in and that the Packers

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Speaker 1: decided to play the analytics play and when they were

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Speaker 1: down go for two to go eighteen seventeen. So we

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Speaker 1: don't have to have the field goal and play because

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Speaker 1: we probably would have lost. We probably would have lost

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Speaker 1: by a point and a half.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's a sale of time. It's crazy how sharp

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Speaker 3: the books are.

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Speaker 2: And that's why we get so hung up on numbers

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Speaker 2: sometimes because all these numbers have a reason. There's all

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Speaker 2: like we talk all the time, all these models. You're

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Speaker 2: just you're simulating the game ten thousand times and you're

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Speaker 2: trying to predict the most likely outcome for ten thousand

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Speaker 2: times the game's played. And what a number of lands

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Speaker 2: like that, Like Chad, it's my favorite thing, Like a

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Speaker 2: landed right on one and a half. Who knows how

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Speaker 2: that game would have went if their card stayed in it,

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Speaker 2: But everything changed. They went from me able to drive

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Speaker 2: the field get first downs to a seventeen to three

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Speaker 2: lead just disappeared as soon as.

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Speaker 3: He went out.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, a lot of props to Jordan Love. Guy

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Speaker 2: was lost for three quarters and he found in the

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Speaker 2: fourth quarter. Felt very lucky to cover that number, Chad,

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Speaker 2: so thankfully I bet it all week at two and

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Speaker 2: one and a half. So I mean, unless you bet

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Speaker 2: it literally right before kickoff, you got screwed. But I

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Speaker 2: would say most people that listened to us they got

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Speaker 2: the number earlier in the week, so that was a

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Speaker 2: good one.

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Speaker 1: By the way, the Seahawks Panthers game is not quite

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Speaker 1: over yet, so if Evan or don't.

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Speaker 2: Do it too, I don't even want to know. I

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Speaker 2: know mathematically it's not dead by the percentages, but it's over.

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Speaker 1: It's over, so real, all right, Matt Mitchell just told

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Speaker 1: us it's officially over. All right, great, fantastic? Uh do

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Speaker 1: we need like? Jordan Love was not very good today,

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Speaker 1: but at the end of the game when they needed

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Speaker 1: to get some plays, he was a baller and he

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Speaker 1: made a great back shoulder throw in the end zone

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Speaker 1: to Romeo Dobbs, who made some incredible catches today. Yea,

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Speaker 1: including like a shoe string fingertip back tip of the

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Speaker 1: ball catch that barely kept it off the ground. Do

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Speaker 1: we have to have a conversation about Jordan Love?

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Speaker 2: No, I still think it's exciting. If you had bet

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Speaker 2: them before the season to win this division. A lot

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Speaker 2: of pros did. It's it's there for them, Like they're

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Speaker 2: right on the line with the Lions, Like the lines

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Speaker 2: are good, but they have a lot of weaknesses. The

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Speaker 2: Packers are good, but they have some big weaknesses. And

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Speaker 2: Jordan Love is inconsistent. Like you saw there's a couple

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Speaker 2: of throws he missed that were deep. Our guys were

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Speaker 2: wide open. Laflour is a great schemer, Like that's a lot.

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Speaker 2: What I'm taking out of this is Aaron Rodgers is

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Speaker 2: really talented, but Lafleur definitely was helping him along the way.

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Speaker 2: And he keeps putting Jordan Love in the best position.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I still have no idea if this guy

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Speaker 2: is going to be a starter in this league, but

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Speaker 2: I can tell you he's He's proven a lot to

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Speaker 2: me of his never giving up. Like even last week

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Speaker 2: he talked about he was making throws when he was

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Speaker 2: getting hit, and I was like, that was a big

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Speaker 2: deal with me. Like a lot of these guys after

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Speaker 2: they get a couple of hits, they get a little timid,

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Speaker 2: they get a little scared. They turned to Zach Wilson,

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Speaker 2: like guy you've seen who's taking these hits, and now

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Speaker 2: he's a little timid.

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Speaker 3: He stands in there.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, gotta be excited if you're a green Bay

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Speaker 2: Packer fan, but still one of those teams that like,

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Speaker 2: I don't know what they are, Like, I don't know

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Speaker 2: green Bay is. I think they're They're better than what

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Speaker 2: I felt they were going to be head into the season,

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Speaker 2: but I still have a lot of questions about green Bay.

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Speaker 1: There's Jordan Love become a Favorites Film Room candidate.

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Speaker 3: It's a possibility, It's definitely a possibility.

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Speaker 1: Everyone go to YouTube check out the YouTube only Favorites

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Speaker 1: film Room video that Simon and I do in which

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Speaker 1: we look at the All twenty two and we break

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Speaker 1: down a couple of plays from games that we bet

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Speaker 1: on from the weekend that are making us think about

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Speaker 1: how we might want to bet that team going forward.

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Speaker 1: All Right, for the first time, Simon, since December thirtieth,

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, we had three upsets of over a touchdown

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Speaker 1: on the same day in the NFL. Those teams were

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Speaker 1: the Houston Texans, the Indianapolis Colts, and they were the Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: Somehow we only had the Texans, and like we have

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Speaker 1: made a living literally off of betting these huge underdogs

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Speaker 1: in these spots. Let's talk about Atlanta plus three and

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Speaker 1: a half. The first thing that happened when you and

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Speaker 1: I got on this car was how did Atlanta end

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Speaker 1: up as our final five? Boggling my mind?

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Speaker 2: Hey, won't you by another somebody?

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Speaker 1: Somebody? When this game opened at five and a half

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Speaker 1: last week on Sunday night, I'm like, I love this bet.

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Speaker 1: You're like, it's fishy. I don't like it. It's stinks,

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Speaker 1: I know, and your instincts. Your instincts are right on.

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Speaker 1: I think what happened was.

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Speaker 2: Even all week we talked about taking the lines too. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's like ezy.

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Speaker 1: I kept waiting, like I was waiting for that number

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Speaker 1: to get to three, and like I just never pulled

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Speaker 1: the trigger on it. And I'm like, I honestly, I

256
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Speaker 1: feel like we suffered from a lot of wise guys

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Speaker 1: buying in uh. And then the only note I have

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Speaker 1: is and this is not blaming it on you at all,

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Speaker 1: because I jumped right in.

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Speaker 3: No, No, it's definitely my fault. No.

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Speaker 1: No, The only note I have is you saying I

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Speaker 1: feel like this is a field goal game. It's a

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Speaker 1: really important hook. I think we got to take it,

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Speaker 1: and like, this is the problem. I think we need

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Speaker 1: to have Mitchell on the call. You said this on

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Speaker 1: Sundays because I don't know if we're going too fast

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Speaker 1: or what. But in my head, I'm like, yeah, we

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Speaker 1: got to do it, you know. Yeah, for seven straight days,

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Speaker 1: I'd been like, I'm not taking Atlanta.

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Speaker 2: No, it's my fault. Like we even said it before

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Speaker 2: we hung up. Who was our biggest bet and both

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Speaker 2: of us said the Patriots And we didn't have the

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Speaker 2: Patriots in there. It doesn't make sense. So I'm not

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Speaker 2: gonna start panicking yet. We're only one below five hundred,

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Speaker 2: but those little wins losses these add up at the

276
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Speaker 2: end of the season, Like that's such a big miss

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Speaker 2: where we both love the Patriots. We barely either of

278
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Speaker 2: us had barely any money in Atlanta, and.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how they ended up.

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Speaker 2: It was such a stupid moment, and yeah, I didn't

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Speaker 2: even think about it. Then once the game's kicked off,

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Speaker 2: I was like, holy shit, I have to cheer for

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Speaker 2: Atlanta in this spot. It was one of those where

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Speaker 2: like I was just how the hell do we end up?

285
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Speaker 2: But it's definitely my fault. Yeah, No, I take full

286
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Speaker 2: blame because I think it was one of those you're

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Speaker 2: going through the numbers of each team and when they

288
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Speaker 2: hit that number, I was like, that's a good that's

289
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Speaker 2: fair value for that Falcons team. And no, everything we

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Speaker 2: said about them is true. That kid Desmond Rider is

291
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Speaker 2: not a quarterback. He's terrible, so terrible. Yeah, so instant regret,

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Speaker 2: but that's again we're about to talk to Denver game.

293
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Speaker 2: I don't regret the Denver that much, but Atlanta is

294
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Speaker 2: totally on me, Like that was such a stupid bet

295
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Speaker 2: Dorman and I was in there, had barely bet today,

296
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Speaker 2: hated it all week, and who knows what happened there?

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I definitely hate those moments I did it.

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Speaker 1: Not only did we have barely any money on it,

299
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Speaker 1: I had zero dollars on it.

300
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Speaker 2: I had yeah, I probably had a thousand, Like I

301
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Speaker 2: had two bets on it, so I had nothing on it.

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Speaker 3: Bizarre what happened there?

303
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Speaker 1: All right, Denver plus five and a half. Look, we

304
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Speaker 1: love this game all week. We love Sean Payton as

305
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Speaker 1: a dog. We thought there was deflation on the Broncos,

306
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Speaker 1: we thought there was inflation on Miami. There's that Week

307
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Speaker 1: three stat about teams that were going home for the

308
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Speaker 1: first time in the season as favorites are horrible against

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Speaker 1: the spread. And yet, and yet I can this one.

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Speaker 1: I know exactly what happened because we hesitated and I

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Speaker 1: wrote this down. I read the number. We said it

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Speaker 1: was five and a half. Your response was classic. You

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Speaker 1: were like, it's like you had never heard this before.

314
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Speaker 1: You were like, fuck, is it those bastards? And then

315
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Speaker 1: we like we were off of Denver. We were like

316
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Speaker 1: completely off of Denver. We were not going to play it. No,

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Speaker 1: we were all in a New England. And then right

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Speaker 1: before I put the picks in, I think Nick Giffen,

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Speaker 1: who we love and we respect, he might have he

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Speaker 1: might have tracked something in the app that referenced the

321
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Speaker 1: luck rankings and the fact that Denver has been the

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Speaker 1: unluckiest team and sort of the best opportunity this week

323
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Speaker 1: in the luck rankings, which by the way, went like

324
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Speaker 1: seven and four today or something like that. So it's

325
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Speaker 1: still a winning play, it's an extraordinarily winning play, but

326
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Speaker 1: this was one that like, we both love the luck

327
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Speaker 1: ranking so much, you were like, oh shit, Nick even

328
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Speaker 1: just put this in as a luck ranking thing and

329
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Speaker 1: we're like, oh, we got to play it.

330
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Speaker 2: So what he put in there in this spot in

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Speaker 2: their luck rankings teams with this big a discrepancy, it's

332
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Speaker 2: twelve and one the road team on the spread as

333
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Speaker 2: a dog, So.

334
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Speaker 1: Now it's twelve and two.

335
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know, people, I got a statue through

336
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Speaker 2: There's it's impossible to model this Miami team.

337
00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,000
Speaker 3: They're the glitch and the matrix Like that was a

338
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:36,719
Speaker 3: good spot, you always play it.

339
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,920
Speaker 2: I will never be able to predict an offense putting

340
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Speaker 2: up seventy points. And the biggest takeaway from it is

341
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Speaker 2: I have to make us stay away, even though whoever

342
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Speaker 2: plays Miami next week the Bills is such a great

343
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Speaker 2: spot to take the Bills, but I can't let us

344
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Speaker 2: do it. Man, Like, these Miami fans have been relentless,

345
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Speaker 2: and I have to keep reminding them I was the

346
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Speaker 2: only one that believed this Miami team last year into

347
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Speaker 2: a I.

348
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Speaker 3: Was a year or two early.

349
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Speaker 2: Like, I have a lot of regrets bending against them

350
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,200
Speaker 2: these past three weeks. I keep losing money and I

351
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 2: keep losing a lot of it. And yeah, Miami is

352
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Speaker 2: definitely my Krypton nine team. This year, Like I don't

353
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,720
Speaker 2: got to read on them, Like I couldn't believe how

354
00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 2: good they were without Wattle today, Like I thought the

355
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 2: Wattle thing was going to be a shift for their

356
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Speaker 2: offense to do because it would be easy. It's like, oh,

357
00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 2: you just focused on Tyreek Hill make to a past

358
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Speaker 2: the other guys, right, that was the whole goal. I

359
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,679
Speaker 2: think first play it was like a middle of the

360
00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:36,800
Speaker 2: field pass to Tyreek and he just took it all

361
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 2: the way for a touchdown. And it's like, oh, they

362
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:40,400
Speaker 2: just have no one that can keep up with him,

363
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 2: Like that's It's not like the Patriots who had a

364
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:47,159
Speaker 2: guy they could stick on them. So yeah, Miami, we

365
00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 2: never see anything like this before. Like this offense is

366
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,959
Speaker 2: clicking in every way. So definitely got to go back

367
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:55,120
Speaker 2: to the drawing board on them.

368
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Speaker 3: Like I don't know, I think I had empower rated AFC.

369
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Speaker 2: Maybe five or six and still don't think they can

370
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Speaker 2: stick with the Chiefs.

371
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,359
Speaker 3: But them and the Bills this.

372
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,040
Speaker 2: Week, that's going to be a major deciding factor for

373
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Speaker 2: me going forward, like whoever comes out of this game,

374
00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 2: because both of them to me are still I.

375
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Speaker 3: Still got the Bills above them.

376
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:20,840
Speaker 2: But man, look Miami right now is good like that,

377
00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:21,639
Speaker 2: everything about that.

378
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:23,120
Speaker 3: I can't wait to watch the All twenty two.

379
00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:28,320
Speaker 2: Every play they called was a smart play, Like it's crazy, Chad,

380
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:30,360
Speaker 2: how it's just all coming together for this Miami team.

381
00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if there's a fan base

382
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,199
Speaker 2: out there more excited for their team. Miami looks the

383
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:39,159
Speaker 2: part like who's going to stop this team? It's crazy,

384
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:40,959
Speaker 2: Like I can't believe how bad of I bet that

385
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,640
Speaker 2: was so luckily quick death. I think it was thirty five,

386
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,960
Speaker 2: like thirteen and a half brutal, brutal bet.

387
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 1: Right now, the Bills are two and a half point

388
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 1: favorites at home against Miami.

389
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:54,760
Speaker 3: Holy shit, I know.

390
00:19:55,560 --> 00:20:00,399
Speaker 1: I know they are begging you right now, begging you.

391
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,159
Speaker 2: Done a little bit, yeah, because they know the public's

392
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,919
Speaker 2: gonna bell over the Dolphins. They just got seventy points.

393
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm gonna fire away on that Bills right now.

394
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 1: Dude, I was in my car for three I.

395
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 3: Can't do it. What am I doing?

396
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,119
Speaker 2: I'm gonna phone them all the pattern again. I'm not

397
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 2: doing it, just staying away from it.

398
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 1: Jesus, Oh my god, look on your face. That was

399
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 1: our stick.

400
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I just said all that, like, I have

401
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 2: to stick true to it. I can't this Miami is

402
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:27,120
Speaker 2: talking about I'm going broke.

403
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 3: Betting against Miami.

404
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 2: Here they're killing me, and I'm going to tell you

405
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 2: how much I'm down on Miami.

406
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 1: This is why it's so interesting. You do this professionally.

407
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 1: I have been in this business for twenty something years,

408
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,640
Speaker 1: and yet when it comes time to make the bet,

409
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,399
Speaker 1: it's like you can short circuit a little bit, like

410
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,399
Speaker 1: you see something and like you immediately forget everything you

411
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:56,159
Speaker 1: had just said. And we're like, you know, seasoned at this.

412
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:57,880
Speaker 1: It's not easy. It's not easy.

413
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 2: Here's that's that's just a nice number of the bills

414
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,719
Speaker 2: goes at home under three.

415
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:05,879
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not doing it, but it's an auto

416
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 3: play Listen.

417
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,920
Speaker 1: If you're gonna lose, lose big in a record breaking game.

418
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 1: Also also, if there's any solace here, If there's any solace,

419
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 1: Tyreek Koll is still in play to win the reception's

420
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 1: yarded reception yardish title and we bet him at nine

421
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 1: to one before the season started. Okay, the last game

422
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,639
Speaker 1: that we lost was Carolina. We had him a plus

423
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 1: five and a half. Again, another surprise bet for me.

424
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 1: And like when Andy Dalton was good and Frank Reich

425
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 1: was decent, we still didn't like betting on them. So

426
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, like Frank Reich turns out isn't

427
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 1: very good and Andy Dalton is like hobbled and confused,

428
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 1: and every other throw is looks like it's on purpose

429
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 1: going out of bounds. And yet we decided today was

430
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 1: the day we're gonna bar you. We're gonna but we're

431
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 1: gonna back Carolina on the on the road.

432
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 2: Andy Dalton threw for three hundred and sixty yards and

433
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 2: two touchdowns, no interceptions.

434
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 3: Check yeah.

435
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton is also like nearly a top twenty all

436
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 1: time yardage passing passing yardage leader in the NFL. Doesn't

437
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 1: mean I ever want to bet on him.

438
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,120
Speaker 2: I don't blame him. I mean, you put up twenty

439
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 2: seven points that that should have got us to cover.

440
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 2: It's just a defense. They were They looked pretty good

441
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 2: against the Saints, and they totally laid down in this game.

442
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 2: And uh yeah, I had a great first half and

443
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 2: then second half they give up twenty five points. So

444
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 2: that was the difference. It's just the defense didn't show up.

445
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 2: Andy Dalton did. I thought the offense played well, but yeah,

446
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,400
Speaker 2: you give up thirty seven points and you have Andy

447
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 2: Dalton as your quarterback, you're gonna lose, lose that game

448
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 2: and not cover, so sucks. I thought that was like

449
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 2: a good number. But yeah, you're right. Carolina is terrible.

450
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 2: But that's another team like I like betting them, Like,

451
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 2: even though they were terrible this week, there's little things

452
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: of their team where it's like they're just missing a

453
00:22:58,280 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 2: couple of things here and there.

454
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 3: But I wouldn't. I wouldn't.

455
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 2: Maybe I will say away if it's Bryce Hunger as

456
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 2: a quarterback when Andy Dolan's are quarterback. I thought their

457
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 2: offense played well. It's just their defense was atrocious today.

458
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:18,199
Speaker 1: You just can't quit the red rifle? How did so?

459
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,199
Speaker 1: We didn't end up with Cleveland? Even though yeah it

460
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,120
Speaker 1: was a bad mess. What happened there?

461
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 3: Why? Why?

462
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 2: It's like, I don't know, did you say the game?

463
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 2: I didn't even pop up on my radar.

464
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 1: I think it were you know what I think the

465
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 1: problem was? It was three and a half.

466
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:32,199
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I didn't even care.

467
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 2: I've been betting at three and a half all week,

468
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:37,719
Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't know what happened there? And the

469
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 2: Patriots are the worst one. Like, I can't I can't

470
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 2: believe we didn't have that in. I think they won

471
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 2: by five. I'm not positive, yep, but it was a

472
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 2: number where like there was a little sweat because I

473
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,480
Speaker 2: think they were only three. At one point, I was like, Okay,

474
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 2: this is why I hate myself for betting this number.

475
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 2: And then they got a safety and it's just like

476
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 2: it's Zach Wilson that was never really in fear.

477
00:23:58,119 --> 00:23:59,919
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's what I mean.

478
00:23:59,920 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 2: I take the full blame because I don't know how

479
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 2: the hell we had a land in and not the Patriots,

480
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:06,880
Speaker 2: like that should have been three and two. Week Yeah,

481
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 2: fucking two and three is brutal, but yeah, one below

482
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:09,920
Speaker 2: five hundred.

483
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 3: We'll get it back next te Thursday.

484
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 1: On Thursday, I'll remind people that of our final seven,

485
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 1: five included winners from the day New England, Houston, New Orleans,

486
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 1: Cleveland and the Pats and the two other games that

487
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 1: were on the list, the Raiders and the Box. Happened happened.

488
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 3: Yet no, it was bad.

489
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 1: Oh my god, what happened? We completely short circuited.

490
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 3: And now I'm glad to have you.

491
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 2: I think I just had too many voices in my

492
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 2: ear down there.

493
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 3: So well, so you know what, I'm happy.

494
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 1: To say that. I'm so glad you say that, because

495
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: I do. I do want to ask you a question.

496
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 1: Last week, at this time, the Bills were six point

497
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 1: favorites against the Commanders, and you and I agreed, we

498
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 1: liked the Bills at that number. I bet the Bills,

499
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 1: and then throughout the week. My biggest bet this week

500
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 1: was the Bills. And we talked about this on Tuesday,

501
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 1: and we talked about this on Thursday. But at some

502
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 1: point during the week, the Wise Guys came in on Washington.

503
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 1: You did your favorite film session on Sam Howell and

504
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 1: it was a great session, and I feel like the

505
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 1: Wise Guys were whispering something in your ear that made

506
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: you change your mind. Yeah, out the Commanders.

507
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I knew a really smart group on the Commanders,

508
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 2: and it's people's opinions I trust. And you know I

509
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 2: had a different opinion on the game, but I agreed

510
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 2: with him. I thought Sam looked better and he turned

511
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 2: back into a pumpkin today once again. No one can

512
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 2: model that like you just don't know when these things

513
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 2: are going to happen. So yeah, bad bit by them,

514
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 2: but that you know, that was never gave me in

515
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 2: our contest luckily, I think it was five and a

516
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 2: half and you were trying to get me on the Bills. Yeah,

517
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 2: and I wanted to get there, but it was just like,

518
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 2: you know, there's certain people I respect where it's like

519
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 2: I can't go against them, like they know what they're

520
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 2: looking at and they were dead wrong, like total meltdown

521
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: by Washington. The Commanders Bills dominated. I think it was

522
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 2: like sixteen nothing and a half just turnovers. They had

523
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 2: tons ton of turn them over from Sam.

524
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 3: So yeah, good read by you.

525
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:07,920
Speaker 2: You're on that one and the culture were on which

526
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 2: I was on the other side of, like thought the

527
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,719
Speaker 2: Ravens was a good spot Minshew on the road. Colts

528
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,880
Speaker 2: were in that game from the get go, like stupid

529
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,159
Speaker 2: turnovers by the Ravens, every little thing, and yeah, they

530
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 2: deserved that win, the Colts. So, like you said, three

531
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: three dogs of seven or more by seven or more

532
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 2: one outright today and we only had one of them

533
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 2: that that hurt.

534
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 1: And that's not even how we play, Like, that's not

535
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:32,959
Speaker 1: our game. Our game is to play the big dogs

536
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 1: and the ugly games that really scare us and we

537
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 1: played we made we like, we just made bad decisions today.

538
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 1: We had like the week one. Week one, we made

539
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:48,120
Speaker 1: good decisions and we had some bad beats. Week three,

540
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 1: we just made bad decisions. And we had every game

541
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 1: we we just made the wrong choices in the moment.

542
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:55,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just mad about the ones we left out

543
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 2: because it's hard to find winners. And we had a

544
00:26:57,520 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 2: couple that we had really nailed, like in the games

545
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 2: how they are going to go?

546
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 3: And I don't know how I missed it.

547
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: Well, you know what, Simon, we can still make good choices.

548
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 1: We can make Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor of

549
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 1: the NFL part of your game day, Simon, what's the

550
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 1: appropriate amount of pizza to eat at a game day party?

551
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 3: The whole pie?

552
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,959
Speaker 1: The whole pie? Order online during our Pizza Pizza pre

553
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 1: game one hour before NFL games and get ready for

554
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 1: some football and fun. Choose your favorite Little Caesars pizza

555
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 1: or pick the toppings you crave. Simon, if I turned

556
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 1: into a Little Caesar's Pizza, would you actually eat me?

557
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 1: There's only one answer. There's one answer. The answer is yes, Simon. However,

558
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:49,879
Speaker 1: you order your Little Caesars. You win. And speaking of winning,

559
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: everyone scores with convenient delivery or our in store pizza

560
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 1: portal pickup. So grab some friends and enjoy a few

561
00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 1: slices during the tastiest hour before off. All right, just

562
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: a reminder, the foxhole was New England minus two and

563
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 1: a half. We didn't bother to put it in, even

564
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: though the line wasn't two and a half. In the contest,

565
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: the Big Balls was Cleveland minus three and a half.

566
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 1: We didn't put it in even though.

567
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 4: The line was three and a Oh god, in the contest,

568
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 4: what the actual fuck? The executive decision was Denver plus seven.

569
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 4: If I'm gonna lose, I wanted to to be ugly.

570
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 4: The Simon says, still TBD.

571
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 1: That was the Uh. That's Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus five

572
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,360
Speaker 1: and a half against Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. Ron

573
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 1: Robin not a pretty weak Washington Nope, Denver Nope, Tampa

574
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 1: Bay TBD, New Orleans nope, Houston, Houston. That's pretty good.

575
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:49,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, the New Orleans once sucked.

576
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 1: That sucked. That totally sucked. Because if that wins in

577
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 1: we got Tampa Bay tomorrow night. All of a sudden,

578
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 1: it's three and two in the money line round robin

579
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 1: Parlam instead of you know what it is now all

580
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: right for those who are joining us live right now,

581
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 1: The Las Vegas Raiders are currently I think minus three

582
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 1: three point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This line's been steaming.

583
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 1: It opened at one and a half. At this time

584
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: last week, we said take the Raiders plus one and

585
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: a half. It is now Raiders minus three. Is this

586
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 1: a breaking point for you, Simon? I don't play the

587
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 1: Raiders at this point because I think the line is

588
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: just steamed too far. Too much history of teams when

589
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 1: they go from being the underdog to the favorite not covering,

590
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 1: and the Raiders are one of those teams. When they're

591
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 1: playing their first home game in Week three, it's not

592
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 1: a good scenario for them. So I only like them

593
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 1: as an underdog or a slight small favorite like within

594
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: the three.

595
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 2: Oh see, I took them first half. But if you

596
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 2: don't want to take on first half on the spread,

597
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 2: I like the under. Chris likes the under primetime unders

598
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 2: or you know historically they're good to take. So that's

599
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 2: one of those numbers where I know it's come down

600
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 2: from forty four and a half to forty three and

601
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 2: a half. I still think that's a nice number. So yeah,

602
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 2: if you want some action in this game, I like

603
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 2: Raiders first half in the under.

604
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: By the way, as we speak, there are more and

605
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 1: more props being loaded by our experts into the Action

606
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 1: Network apps. I would remind everybody go check it out.

607
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: I'm getting alerts for some props right now. What is

608
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 1: our Monday Night football? Lean fairly certain anyone listening to

609
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: this podcast should know it by now because the wise guys,

610
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 1: including us, it've been on one side all week. Simon

611
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 1: tell people what that.

612
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 3: Is, Tampa.

613
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 2: And still like the Rams if you're scared off of

614
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 2: the number, because come so low, I get it. The

615
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 2: Rams are usually in this spot. I take the Bengals

616
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 2: because the Bengals are at home oh and two oh

617
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 2: in too, ats like it's a good spot for them.

618
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: But the Joe Burrow stuff just makes me scared, like

619
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 2: people really thought he wasn't going to play, and we

620
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 2: still don't know one hundred percent if he's going to play,

621
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 2: so the books don't know what to do if he

622
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 2: does get clear. I think this moves up to minus three.

623
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 2: So that's why if you want to wait on the rams.

624
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 2: I get it, but yeah, if you're looking for something

625
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 2: to bet right now, we did take Tampa and yeah,

626
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 2: I think Sean gave out Tampa's under right, so another problem.

627
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 1: And convinced me earlier today Raybaund liked the Raiders Steelers

628
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 1: under tonight and Sean Corner like the under tomorrow. Simon,

629
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 1: did you know the fastest growing ticketing app in the

630
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 1: United States is our sponsor, game Time. I love Game

631
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One because they sponsor this show.

632
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 1: Number two, I actually use game Time to buy tickets.

633
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 1: I've talked about it so much. They've got amazing last

634
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 1: minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including pro college

635
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 1: football games. I'm actually opening the game Time app right now.

636
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 1: From my house here in Connecticut. I can get into

637
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 1: a New York Yankees game tomorrow night six dollars, end

638
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: of September, beautiful night in the Bronx six dollars. No

639
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 1: matter where you live, download the game Time app, get out,

640
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 1: have some fun this week, Go sweat your bets live

641
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: and in person, and you can redeem code favorites for

642
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 1: twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just

643
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 1: download the app and enter code favorites for twenty dollars

644
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 1: off last minute tickets lows price guaranteed. All right, we

645
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: talked a little bit about some early leans. Let's go

646
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 1: to the best three, six five app right now, see

647
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: what some of the lines are. Not all lines are

648
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 1: posted yet because games are just ending, but certainly we

649
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 1: looked at Houston plus three at home against the Steelers.

650
00:32:56,280 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 1: We like that number. We talked about the Bills minus

651
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 1: two and a half at home against against the Miami Dolphins.

652
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 1: Oh good lord.

653
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, this week, this week's really tough, Like a lot

654
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 2: of these a lot of these lines are hanging, you know,

655
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 2: the book themselves don't really know.

656
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 3: What to do with some of these lines where you.

657
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 2: Know, normally certain teams get certain advantages because they're at home,

658
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 2: but if you're just going through, one that really jumps

659
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 2: out Cleveland right now is minus one and a half

660
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 2: against the Ravens.

661
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 1: Yeap, That's exactly the one I was. That's exactly the

662
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 1: one I looked at.

663
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we'll grab the Ravens as a dog or

664
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 2: are you thinking Browns?

665
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 1: Probably Ravens is a dog, That's what I'm thinking.

666
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 2: Like, Ravens played terribly Browns had the best game of

667
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 2: their season. Well, who knows, maybe we need to revisit

668
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 2: this Browns thing of the Browns at home are juggernaut

669
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 2: because they dominated the Bengals and then today Tennessee they

670
00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 2: dominated them like they were a different class.

671
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 3: So, just to me, that's an interesting number though, i'd.

672
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 2: Make this game of pick it's it's kind of wild

673
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 2: that the Ravens are plus one and a half. You

674
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,280
Speaker 2: know another game that jumps out, but it's in London,

675
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 2: so I won't touch it is that Falcons Jaguars game,

676
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 2: like Atlanta plus three. It's tempting because the Jaguars do

677
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 2: look broken, but me and Chad we try to stay

678
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:24,879
Speaker 2: away from betting these London games.

679
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 3: We had a bad experience with it.

680
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 1: It's also just like these two teams right now, there's

681
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 1: no there's no advantage there.

682
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 2: I would say there is Atlanta, Like I don't know

683
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 2: who was gonna be in Atlanta. I feel like everyone's

684
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,240
Speaker 2: gonna jump off because it's what we just saw. Ritter

685
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 2: is terrible, terrible, He's terrible. I'm shocked your Bears team

686
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 2: how far they've fallen. They are a plus two and

687
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,799
Speaker 2: a half dog at home, against against Denver, Like, that's

688
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,959
Speaker 2: another line we're probably gonna have to take. I'm gonna

689
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:02,399
Speaker 2: wait because I think we might be able to get

690
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 2: three here, because I'm getting it's plus two and a

691
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 2: half plus one hundred right now for the Bears.

692
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 3: So I'll just wait.

693
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 2: I won't make any Runners go hit that yet because

694
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,320
Speaker 2: to me, I'll just wait to get the three this week.

695
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 2: That's definitely an interesting game. Total train wreck though with

696
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,880
Speaker 2: the Bears. I mean that they could be one of

697
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 2: those teams that, like their whole season is just a disaster.

698
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 2: We even talked this week all their distractions, and they

699
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 2: came out and laid the biggest egg of eggs.

700
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 1: There was no fight in that team, no at all.

701
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,400
Speaker 1: I mean it was truly from the second the game started,

702
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 1: they were on their heels, backpedaling wide open spaces. It

703
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 1: was cool that Taylor Swift was at the game, though.

704
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 2: I oh, hold my opinion on Taylor Swift. I don't

705
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 2: want to get yelled.

706
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 1: At, Oh my good dude, all right, Taylor Swift.

707
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 3: I feel like Americans don't know what good music is.

708
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 1: You could draw a line Shakespeare to Dickens, to Twain

709
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 1: to Springsteen to takeo. That's how good of a writer

710
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 1: she is. She is that good of a writer.

711
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,359
Speaker 2: I have lived by a philosophy that if I meet

712
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 2: someone they tell me they're a huge Taylor Swift fan,

713
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:20,280
Speaker 2: it lets me know all I need to know about

714
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,400
Speaker 2: that person. And I think many people out there know

715
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 2: what I'm talking about.

716
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 1: Maybe he'll tell me off air, because now I want

717
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 1: to know, But I don't want to know Taylor.

718
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 2: Taylor Swift fans, like swifties are psychos. Like if I

719
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 2: meet someone they tell me they are swifty, I immediately

720
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 2: I go, oh, I have to go talk to that

721
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 2: person over there. I just get out of the conversation.

722
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 1: By the way, you can appreciate how great she is

723
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:45,720
Speaker 1: and how she manages her business and the songwriting without

724
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 1: feeling like you're a swiftye.

725
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 3: That's fair. She's just not my cup of tea.

726
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 2: I like Florence, I like Adel I like British singers.

727
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 3: You know, I like all them too.

728
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 1: All right, but let's get back to the games. Let's see.

729
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:02,399
Speaker 2: These are tough lines, brother, Like I'm trying to I'm

730
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 2: trying to find us.

731
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 3: Some good value. But like a lot of these.

732
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:07,919
Speaker 2: Are weird numbers, like Are you people going to listen

733
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 2: to me and take the Panthers plus three against Minnesota?

734
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 2: Probably not, But that is a good number against Kirk Cousins,

735
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 2: who's a train wreck right now. Yeah, Like like last

736
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 2: week I had like two or three games that really

737
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 2: jumped out, and this week, like I kind of need

738
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 2: to just get over and pull the trigger where it's

739
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,799
Speaker 2: like Washington's plus seven right now against the Eagles, that's

740
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 2: a good number. Arizona's fourteen and a half against the

741
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 2: forty nine ers. Yes, that's a good number. Like there's

742
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,760
Speaker 2: a couple of big numbers here. New England plus seven,

743
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,280
Speaker 2: I guess, hold on, that's a good number.

744
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 1: The game that I want to talk about was New

745
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 1: England plus seven. Let's talk about Is that that feels

746
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 1: a little high to me? Yeah, Although I am really

747
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 1: worried about Mac Jones, Like I don't think any offense

748
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 1: that is created around Mac Jones is going to put

749
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 1: him in a position to succeed. He's not very good.

750
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 1: He's just not Are you good?

751
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 3: Dude?

752
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 2: He played the Eagles, then Miami and then just played

753
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 2: in a tsunami against the Jets. It's all fair what

754
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 2: you're saying, but that's a lot of points for a

755
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 2: Cowboys theme that I think they can be schemed up,

756
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 2: like we just saw Arizona out scheme this Cowboys offense.

757
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 3: That's just a shocking number.

758
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 2: So again, I'm not firing away on this because I

759
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 2: do want to run these through my model. But like

760
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 2: Arizona the pate, like Arizona fourteen and a half, that's crazy,

761
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 2: But this is what it's going to be. Like I

762
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 2: think Evan joked about it earlier today, like they're begging

763
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 2: people to bet Arizona. No one was betting on, Like

764
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 2: they couldn't get any any Arizona money. Every who, every parlay,

765
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,879
Speaker 2: everything was tied to that Cowboys game. So yeah, we're

766
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 2: asking lightning to strike twice. Taking the Cardinals here after

767
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 2: a big win. They're three and oh ats.

768
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:04,280
Speaker 1: I don't forget. Don't forget three and zero against the spread.

769
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,879
Speaker 1: Twenty two percent of the tickets in all twenty two

770
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: percent or less of all tickets than was telling us

771
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 1: in all three games, which is insane. But don't forget.

772
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 3: That's why hotels are built, brother.

773
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 1: Right, don't forget Arizona this week at home. Next week

774
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:23,120
Speaker 1: on the road against San Francisco, with a little bit

775
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 1: extra time. They're entirely different scenario betting of his big dogs.

776
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 2: I just love they gave us fourteen and a half though,

777
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:31,840
Speaker 2: Like that's such a key number, and they're just they're saying, please,

778
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 2: anybody give us something against his foreign iris team in

779
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:39,879
Speaker 2: case the Arizona gets blown out here. Yeah, that's that's

780
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 2: that's a big, big spread, Chat, And you know, there's

781
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 2: a couple of big spreads that I do, Like, I'm

782
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 2: not gonna like just jump on them right now. But

783
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 2: the Chiefs first, the Jets, Like we keep talking about

784
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 2: this Chiefs defense.

785
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 3: They're good, man.

786
00:39:56,080 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 1: They are has been all over the offensive backfield like

787
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 1: he is.

788
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 2: And their linebacking corps is really good. Yeah, this this

789
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 2: Chiefs team is for real. So I see the book

790
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 2: open them minus nine. I can see that gettingto minus

791
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 2: ten by the time we do a show Tuesday. It

792
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 2: just feels like everyone's gonna throw that into their teasers.

793
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:19,880
Speaker 2: Take the money line the Chiefs. That's that's another nice number.

794
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 2: And so sadly that's our Sunday night game because this

795
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 2: is when Aaron Rodgers was supposed to be the quarterback

796
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 2: for the Jets.

797
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:27,720
Speaker 3: So yeah, Chat, I think.

798
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 2: I think, I'm almost positive me and You're going to

799
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 2: end up on the Patriots this week. Like I just

800
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 2: if they're seven and a half, six and a half,

801
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:36,320
Speaker 2: how do we not take that number?

802
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 3: Their defense is so good.

803
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:42,720
Speaker 1: I mean, we're gonna bet the Patriots every single week.

804
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:44,840
Speaker 3: It's looking that way.

805
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 1: Here's the question, Well we remember to put them in

806
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 1: the contest every single week, That is the question. Right now?

807
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 1: Our early leadings like, we're not we're not unloading. We're

808
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 1: not firing every bullet on these games. But Houston plus

809
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 1: three to me feels like the one, and I'm most

810
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 1: confident in pulling the trigger on Okay, Baltimore plus one

811
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,840
Speaker 1: and a half, I'm more interested in probably seventy percent.

812
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 1: I want to give in maybe an hour or two

813
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 1: tonight and do some legwork. New England plus seven, Arizona

814
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half, Jets plus nine. I'm not quite

815
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 1: ready to unload there yet.

816
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:27,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, if people are looking for what favorites I have

817
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:29,800
Speaker 2: bet so far. I took the Rams they were minus

818
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 2: one against this cold steam. Chad's definitely I'm on the

819
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 2: other side of Chad.

820
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:36,439
Speaker 3: Chads.

821
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 2: I believe in this cold team. I'm still skeptical, even

822
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 2: though I took they're over headed end of the season.

823
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:43,080
Speaker 2: And another favorite I took a small bet on was

824
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 2: the Saints. The Saints or minus three right now, weird number.

825
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 2: I don't know how they can hang that without knowing

826
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 2: who the quarterback is. So I think I feel like

827
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 2: they know something more than I do. So I'm just

828
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 2: gonna throw a little on this Saints minus three just

829
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:57,360
Speaker 2: in case Tampa.

830
00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 3: If they do get.

831
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 2: Blown out by this Eagles team, I could see this

832
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:03,319
Speaker 2: number get up to four. So that's that's the first

833
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:06,879
Speaker 2: game back for Kamar at home the Saints after such

834
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 2: a bad loss, even their defense, like this is a

835
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 2: good spot to back the Saints team at home in

836
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:14,720
Speaker 2: a divisional game against a short week that the Bucks

837
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 2: will be on.

838
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, if.

839
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 2: People want to know what favorites I like, I like

840
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, like the Saints.

841
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 1: I like the Rams all right. As a reminder, the

842
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 1: Favorites podcast is presented by bet three sixty five bet

843
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 1: three six five doesn't two ordinary. They believe that every

844
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 1: sport should be epic. Every touchdown, every game, every point,

845
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 1: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the

846
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 1: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when

847
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 1: you sign up today with Code Action and you'll get

848
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Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus bets when

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Speaker 1: you bet just one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever the moment,

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852
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853
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Speaker 1: you get your podcast, rate review, subscribe for Simon Hunter,

861
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 1: I Am Chad Millman, say whatever you want. Feedback is

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00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:42,720
Speaker 1: a gift until Tuesday one five. Love you. Action Network

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