1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,320 Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, some major breaking news. It is about eight 2 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:06,280 Speaker 1: forty four pm here on the East Coast, and I 3 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: can report to you that Donald Trump has officially won 4 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: the New Hampshire GOP primary. The Associated Press, which is 5 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:16,799 Speaker 1: what we go off of, called the race for him 6 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: a mere three minutes after the polls close at eight pm. 7 00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: To be fair, some of the polling places in New 8 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:25,240 Speaker 1: Hampshire closed at seven, so they were able to tabulate 9 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 1: things before the official time came. But still pretty stunning 10 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: that they were able to do that. Nikki Haley, Actually 11 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 1: one of the reasons I waited to do this is 12 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:37,479 Speaker 1: she gave a very early concession speech tonight where she says, well, 13 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: we almost got half of the vote, almost, I think 14 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: being the key thing there. But more importantly for our purposes, 15 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 1: she says she's not going to be dropping out of 16 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:48,279 Speaker 1: the race. So just for tonight, you know, reminder, we're 17 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,880 Speaker 1: going to have a great show tomorrow morning with Ryan 18 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 1: Graham and Emily Jashinsky. I'll be at the desk with 19 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: the three of them, will be going over all the results, 20 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 1: the video, etcetera. You can tune in for that, but 21 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: i'll give you some of my initial thoughts, just reactions 22 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: that I wanted to share. So I'm gonna go ahead 23 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: and try and put some of this on the screen 24 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: that you guys can see. Okay, So what we can 25 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 1: see in front of us, as I said, is if 26 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 1: some of the votes are still being tabulated here, Trump 27 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 1: currently standing around fifty three point four percent, Nikki Haley 28 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 1: at forty five point seven. The estimated margin of victory 29 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:22,039 Speaker 1: that we see is about Trump plus eleven roughly like that. 30 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: So not the domination that he was able to demonstrate 31 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: in Iowa, but this is still a head to head thing, 32 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: and he's very likely to come out over fifty percent 33 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: or so. More importantly, though, what we can see from 34 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: some of the counties and things that have come in 35 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 1: so far is that you all of the areas which 36 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:43,399 Speaker 1: are colored in by red, either light or dark that 37 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 1: I'm hovering my mouse over, those are the places that 38 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 1: are in the more suburban and rural parts of the state. 39 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 1: Those are the places that are overwhelmingly going for Trump. Now, though, 40 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 1: let's take something that's deep blue, and we can see 41 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 1: that are areas with like hannover hand over as the 42 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: perfect example, that is the most liberal place in the state. 43 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 1: Of New Hampshire. I believe that's where Dartmouth College is 44 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: actually located or somewhere nearby. So why would that matter, Well, 45 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 1: that's where the vast majority of these college educated voters 46 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 1: would be. Another thing to keep in mind is that 47 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: the New Hampshire primary allowed people who were not Republicans 48 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 1: to actually register and be able to vote as long 49 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 1: as they did so a couple of days ago, and 50 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 1: from the overwhelming amount of data that we were able 51 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: to see, a lot of Democrats decided to cross over 52 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 1: and to vote for Nikki Haley, which definitely influenced her 53 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 1: overall vote total. And also we had some people who 54 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: were undeclared and or undecided type voters. So all of 55 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: these I think are pretty important data points, and things 56 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:50,839 Speaker 1: will be going over a lot tomorrow. But I think 57 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: that's kind of like one of my major top line 58 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 1: differences between this primary and Iowa and especially the Iowa CAUCUSUS. 59 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 1: This was major differences in the actual in the exit polling, 60 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 1: for example, and we'll spend some time on this is 61 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: for example, about two thirds of voters tonight in the 62 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: state of New Hampshire said that they were not part 63 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,800 Speaker 1: of the MAGA movement, whereas the majority of Iowa caucus 64 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 1: goers did say that they were part of the MAGA movement. 65 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: Similar whenever it came down to whether the election was 66 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 1: stolen or not, all about forty nine percent of New 67 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 1: Hampshire's GOP primary voters did say that the election was stolen, 68 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 1: as opposed to only twenty nine percent for example with Iowa. 69 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: So you can see it's skewed much more like a 70 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: more moderate and or liberal direction. Of course, that it 71 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: happens whenever you let moderate and or actual Democrats in 72 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 1: or liberals vote in a GOP primary, so we can't 73 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: discount that. And also it demonstrates the long, hard road 74 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 1: that Nikki Haley has ahead of her because even though 75 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: the next state is about a month away, that's her 76 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 1: own home state for the South Carolina that is not 77 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: going to have the same level of dynamics that'll be 78 00:03:57,120 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: able to come and to save her. For those who 79 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 1: were wondering, by the way, I can also report that 80 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: the Democratic primary has officially been called by the Associated 81 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: Press as well for Joe Biden, but we expected that 82 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 1: the overall vote totals are just pretty unclear right now 83 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: because all of those Biden votes were right ends, and obviously, 84 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: you know, we're waiting to see which right ins were 85 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: for Biden, which right in said cease fire approximately seventy 86 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 1: point eight percent of the tabulated votes so far, our 87 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 1: quote unprocessed right INDs even though they can estimate that 88 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 1: Joe Biden will win that Democratic primary, waiting to see 89 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,239 Speaker 1: what the overall vote total will be for Dean Phillips 90 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: from Mary Ann Williamson for Vermin Supreme who we learned 91 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 1: about today, who was on the show kind of in 92 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 1: you know, just overall like kind of what I can 93 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: see and what is kind of interesting from you know, 94 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:48,280 Speaker 1: with the county by county is that same thing. You know, 95 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: Biden just has a lot of dominance pretty much all 96 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: across the state. But I mean that was likely and 97 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 1: most likely accepted. So anyway, those are some of my 98 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:59,359 Speaker 1: initial reactions. My real top line one is just you know, 99 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: if I can hammer home anything else that I can, 100 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 1: is that Nikki Haley is the candidate of the you know, 101 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 1: the more college educated people who are more likely to 102 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 1: you know, not vote for Trump and just vote for 103 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 1: Biden crossover, and that's just not going to cut it 104 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: in a GOP primary. I don't think I can say 105 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 1: that enough, and it's going to be the dominant story 106 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 1: I think as this we have this month kind of 107 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:32,359 Speaker 1: twisting ahead of South Carolina primary. Although let me just 108 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: say this too. Month is a long time is an 109 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:37,480 Speaker 1: eternity in politics, you know, who the hell know? Think 110 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:39,359 Speaker 1: about where we were a month ago in terms of 111 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: if A. Kramaswami and all these candidates and some of 112 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:44,719 Speaker 1: the posturing and all that. So you know, look, Trump 113 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:48,160 Speaker 1: could literally you get of another charge against him, something 114 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 1: could happen with the trial, or something could happen with Biden. 115 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 1: There could be a global conflagration. We have no idea, 116 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 1: you know, and all of these have a huge impact 117 00:05:56,640 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 1: on the race. So just keep that in mind as 118 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 1: part of the reason likely you know that she has 119 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: decided not to drop out of the race, and she's 120 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 1: going to keep this thing going. And I'm excited, you know, 121 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 1: to have all all of our analysis tomorrow on the show. 122 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: So if you can become a Breaking Points Premium member, 123 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: if you don't mind all of us stayed up, you know, 124 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:14,600 Speaker 1: we'll be up late. We're past our bedtimes tonight. We're 125 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 1: gonna be up bright and early tomorrow morning. Everybody's working 126 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 1: overtime and we'll have a show for everybody on Thursday 127 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:21,480 Speaker 1: as well, So shout out to them breakingpoints dot com 128 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:23,279 Speaker 1: if you're able to take advantage of that, and I 129 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,599 Speaker 1: will see you all tomorrow. It's gonna be a treat.