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Speaker 1: Hello, They're happy Thursday. Welcome to another episode of the

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Speaker 1: Chuck Podcast. So I'll be honest, today's a bit of

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Speaker 1: a of a of a of a momentous day and

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Speaker 1: my own personal journey because this is the day I

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Speaker 1: drop my son off to college. I'm recording before I

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Speaker 1: do this, but but when you're hearing this, that's what

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Speaker 1: I'm in the middle of doing. And uh, it's, uh,

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Speaker 1: every emotion that you're people tell you you're going to have,

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Speaker 1: I've been having. I'm not one to be an oversharer

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Speaker 1: and I'm not looking looking you know. For for all

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Speaker 1: the uh other people's acknowledgments on this, I'm just simply

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Speaker 1: just uh just just that's that's lingering and it you know,

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Speaker 1: it just does. So in some ways I try to

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Speaker 1: throw myself into even more so into into what I'm

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Speaker 1: doing here. But yes, that is a let's just say,

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Speaker 1: it's a line of demarcation in life. For those of

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Speaker 1: you are a certain age, you definitely know what I mean.

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Speaker 1: So let me move my guest. My chief guest today

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Speaker 1: is none other than Charlie Cook. If you are listening

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Speaker 1: to me because you're a political junkie, I don't need

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Speaker 1: to tell you who Charlie Cook is. But if you're

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Speaker 1: somewhat new to me or you've only been following in

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Speaker 1: the last couple of years, Charlie Cook is somebody who

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Speaker 1: was sort of one of the pioneers of the political

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Speaker 1: handicapping space, of the newsletter space rank you know, sort

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Speaker 1: of the Cook Report. You may have heard that phrase.

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Speaker 1: He's not as active with that. He's sort of he

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Speaker 1: doesn't do that on the daily basis, but he's for instance,

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Speaker 1: he's on the show so we can promote the latest

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Speaker 1: edition of the Almanac of American Politics, which is one

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Speaker 1: of the certainly one of the most important reference books

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Speaker 1: that I have in my library. Every edition I always say,

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Speaker 1: you want to have every addition. That's one of those

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Speaker 1: where the older it gets, the more valuable in some

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Speaker 1: ways the information is. So if I'm talking to Charlie Cook,

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Speaker 1: you know what that means. We're talking a lot about

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Speaker 1: politics and campaigns, but we do take a little bigger

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Speaker 1: picture because that's what he was doing with sort of

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Speaker 1: you know what did we learn in the twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: four campaign. It's a terrific conversation. You know, his thoughts

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Speaker 1: on redistricting. He's got an interesting and frankly pessimistic view

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Speaker 1: of the Senate. I don't want to scoop what he

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Speaker 1: has to say about it, but I think it's quite

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Speaker 1: fascinating that if Charlie Cook thinks this about the US Senate,

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Speaker 1: maybe a lot of US senators need to look in

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Speaker 1: the mirror and have some introspection on that. So, again,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to give it away, but I think

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Speaker 1: it's definitely worth a listen. So in that spirit, I

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Speaker 1: figured it might be a good opportunity for me to

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Speaker 1: sort of give you how I'm watching all of these

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Speaker 1: campaign cycles develop campaign this calendar year, campaign twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: what we think we're learning nationally about what's going on

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Speaker 1: directionally with the Democratic Party Republican Party? Is Trump a drag?

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Speaker 1: If so, how much that is? I think you have

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Speaker 1: to ask both questions there, How do things look in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six? So I just want up there. I

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Speaker 1: know I do. I try to once a week do

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Speaker 1: sort of updates and key developments, but this is more

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Speaker 1: of a bigger picture, and I think we're at an

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Speaker 1: interesting I want you to watch for something over the

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Speaker 1: next thirty days. So this is the last two weeks

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Speaker 1: have been an intense partisan political debate right about districting

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Speaker 1: and the Texas issue in the California issue. If you're

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Speaker 1: politically engaged, you've been totally wired in on this. And

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Speaker 1: I also understand that this is August and there we're

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Speaker 1: If you're not sort of a political junkie, you haven't

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Speaker 1: been engaged in this. But this is why it's important

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Speaker 1: to follow the next thirty days to see what is

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Speaker 1: the fallout from this intense partisan debate over redistricting in

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Speaker 1: Texas and California where partisans just are ready to fight, like,

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Speaker 1: let's pick up arms, let's do this. Is this going

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Speaker 1: to inspire more candidates to run for office? Is it

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Speaker 1: going to inspire more donations to one party or the other?

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Speaker 1: And that's that's the follow on effect that I'm curious

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Speaker 1: to watch out for at this point. Look, I've I've

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Speaker 1: I've let you know my feelings about where I think

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Speaker 1: this redistricting. You know that the long term negative impact

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Speaker 1: and consequences that we could be dealing with. But I'm

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Speaker 1: very curious what is this doing to a couple levels

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Speaker 1: of enthusiam. What is this doing. Let's look on the

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Speaker 1: Democratic side, what is this doing to Democratic donor enthusiasm.

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Speaker 1: It's not been a good year so far. Fundraising. You

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Speaker 1: haven't seen, there's a there's there's something in the news

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Speaker 1: cycle you haven't seen. Sometimes when you don't see headlines,

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Speaker 1: that's news. You know. There haven't been a lot of

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Speaker 1: headlines that hey, Democratic candidate X, you know, raised x

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Speaker 1: amount of money in the first twenty four hours of

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Speaker 1: their candidacy. Their announcement video garnered this many donations. You

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Speaker 1: know why I haven't heard many of that because there

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Speaker 1: hasn't been any of these big moments. Remember in twenty

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Speaker 1: seventeen and there was this special election in Georgia and

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Speaker 1: John Ossoff was that time, the now senator from Georgia

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Speaker 1: was a House candidate then and he was breaking all

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Speaker 1: sorts of records with these money bombs and how fired

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Speaker 1: up based owners were to give money to this. I've

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Speaker 1: not seen any evidence so far. And like I said,

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Speaker 1: it is a vacation month right before the start of school,

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Speaker 1: so there certainly are plenty of reasons why maybe there

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Speaker 1: aren't as many people paying attention. But I've not since

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Speaker 1: any sort of bump yet that this fight that Gavin

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Speaker 1: Newsom has been leading for the party in this national

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Speaker 1: fight over redistricting in the state of Texas has had

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Speaker 1: this you know, has had an impact financially or has

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Speaker 1: had an impact on more candidates going, you know what,

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Speaker 1: I want to run for office this time. You get

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Speaker 1: a record amount of candidates that wanted to run for office.

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Speaker 1: Right after the twenty sixteen election. There was a real

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Speaker 1: response to that, like, hey, you know, I need to

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Speaker 1: jump into this, I need to do my part. In

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Speaker 1: some places, you're seeing a bunch of candidates get in

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Speaker 1: Iowa Senate, right they can't seem to they finally a

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Speaker 1: fifth candidate jumped into that race, and finally somebody decided

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Speaker 1: to get out and endorse that new candidate in the race.

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Speaker 1: But still you sort of take that away and you're

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Speaker 1: not you're not seeing it yet. And that's the thing.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to say that this is definitive of

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Speaker 1: anything yet, but if a party out of power is

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Speaker 1: starting to gain momentum into a midterm election, you do

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Speaker 1: start to see certain things. You start to see an

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Speaker 1: advantage in fundraising. So far, we've not seen any advantages

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Speaker 1: on fundraising. If anything. The story is about how a

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Speaker 1: bunch of Democratic donors appear to be sitting on their

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Speaker 1: hands at least when it comes to the major committees,

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Speaker 1: and we know that seems to be that could be

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Speaker 1: just more about a lack of confidence in the leadership

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Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party and they don't want to give

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Speaker 1: it to the official committees. But it's not like we're

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Speaker 1: seeing candidates below the doors off in fundraising just yet.

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Speaker 1: I think Roy Cooper had a pretty good opening bid

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Speaker 1: fundraisers when he jumped into the North Carolina Center race.

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Speaker 1: But again, you know it doesn't fit. We're not yet

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Speaker 1: looking at twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, which was right, which

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Speaker 1: was sort of peak sort of United Democratic Party, fired

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Speaker 1: up donors, fired up everything, right. So my point is

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Speaker 1: things you want to watch us, so we're not quite

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Speaker 1: seeing that. Are we seeing a hole by such off

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Speaker 1: candidates jump in races? Well, you know, I was looking

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Speaker 1: at it, and while you are seeing it in sporadic places,

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Speaker 1: it's not like you're seeing there's such enthusiasm to jump

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Speaker 1: in that things are going to look so good for

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Speaker 1: Democrats that they've got a viable candidate, say in an

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Speaker 1: open seat in Kentucky, you know, six years ago. You know,

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Speaker 1: every six years it seems as if that they're you

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm not saying Kentucky should be what you measure.

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Speaker 1: The ability of whether or not Democrats can find a

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Speaker 1: viable candidate for Kentucky Senate should be a measure about

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Speaker 1: whether the party is going to do well in the midterms.

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Speaker 1: I don't expect them to win that race, but the

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Speaker 1: fact that really isn't a candidate of note yet into

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Speaker 1: that one and in just in you know, it's you know,

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Speaker 1: you don't have candidates like rushing to the filing deadlines

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Speaker 1: just yet. Perhaps this will come perhaps right, and you know,

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Speaker 1: one could argue the official starting gun four campaign twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six is usually Labor Day twenty twenty five. But

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Speaker 1: there's just it's an intangible when you've been doing this

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Speaker 1: a long time, you know, it's sort of like what

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Speaker 1: that the kids like to say today, when you know,

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Speaker 1: you know, this is one of those that feels like

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Speaker 1: there's something happening here and it's just not developing in

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Speaker 1: the same way that we saw, for instance, during the

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Speaker 1: first Trump midterm. That doesn't mean things could change. You

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Speaker 1: heard that interview with Mark Zandi. Many of you, you know,

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Speaker 1: the economy in the spring of twenty six that may

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Speaker 1: matter more than anything I'm talking about right now than

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Speaker 1: the disappointing early fundraising or the not quite gangbuster candidate

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Speaker 1: recruitment that we've seen. It's been good, not great. What's

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Speaker 1: interesting is Democrats have actually still done a little bit

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Speaker 1: better on the candidate recruitment front than Republicans. For instance,

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Speaker 1: Republicans still don't have a sort of an agreed upon

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Speaker 1: viable candidate in the open Minnesota Center race. And so there,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's almost as if there's this weird pause

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Speaker 1: over things because again it's it's not like things are

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Speaker 1: that much better on the Republican side. They're doing better

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Speaker 1: on money, right, there's more unity around Trump, but it

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Speaker 1: isn't translating quite like. It's not like it's helping their

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Speaker 1: candidate in Virginia. And that's if anything, and you're not

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Speaker 1: you know, to me, what's interesting about campaign twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: There's there is sort of one swing race, but it's

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Speaker 1: not Virginia this cycle, and it's not New York City.

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Speaker 1: It's New Jersey governor. In the point in the in

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Speaker 1: that it's gonna of all the races this cycle, it's

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Speaker 1: probably going to tell me the most about what twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six could look like. It is you know, New

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Speaker 1: Jersey is a very suburban state, right, so if if

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Speaker 1: the suburbs or are they going to be turning against Trump?

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Speaker 1: Or did he those inroads he made in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: are those sustained even when he's not on the ballot, Right,

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Speaker 1: he really improved Republican standing in New Jersey, New Jersey, Illinois.

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Speaker 1: Those are two of those states where Trump did dramatically

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Speaker 1: better in losing them in twenty twenty four that he

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Speaker 1: did in either twenty twenty or twenty sixteen. Was that

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Speaker 1: a blip? Was that an outlier? Or is there are

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Speaker 1: we still in the middle of some form of a

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Speaker 1: realignment in some of these other places. So the New

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Speaker 1: Jersey governor's race, it's an open governor's race. Republicans haven't

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Speaker 1: you know. This is one of those states that it

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Speaker 1: does sort of vacillate, right, It's one of those that

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Speaker 1: doesn't like to have any party usually get more than

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Speaker 1: eight to twelve years at a time on this front.

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Speaker 1: So the Republican candidate Chidarelli does sort of have a

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Speaker 1: little bit he just feels Jersey you just sort of

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Speaker 1: again like Phil Murphy feels Jersey, right, Chris Steve feels Jersey.

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Speaker 1: I say this is a good way sort of like,

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Speaker 1: do you feel like their representative of Jersey. I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying Mikey Cheryl isn't the case. It doesn't you know,

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Speaker 1: the same thing. But there's something I don't know. You

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Speaker 1: see it. And he's running a second time that you know,

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Speaker 1: he's the second time candidates in these governors races. Actually,

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Speaker 1: there's a pretty decent track record when you're nominee twice

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Speaker 1: in a row. Jeb Bush lost the first time he

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Speaker 1: ran for governor, learned some lessons, got better the second time.

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Speaker 1: Mikey Cheryl sort of stumbled on the Mom Donnie question

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Speaker 1: and that and that's going to be something that I'm

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Speaker 1: very curious about New Jersey, which is I don't think

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Speaker 1: Mom Donnie's should is going to be an issue for voters.

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Speaker 1: But if Mikey Cheryl loses or comes really close to losing,

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Speaker 1: there's going to be a perception that, hey, this this

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Speaker 1: may have been an overhang, this may have been a problem,

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Speaker 1: and it's going to spook the party, if you will.

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Speaker 1: It was interesting that she was on air when she

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Speaker 1: was first asked and she said she was likely she

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Speaker 1: couldn't imagine not supporting the Democratic nominee. Chidarelli campaign has

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Speaker 1: been hitting her saying, hey see she supports Mom Donnie I. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: the the Cheryl campaign is saying no, no, no no, she

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Speaker 1: isn't officially endorsed.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: It's one of those where you say, you know, if

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Speaker 1: she were, if you're a bit more nimble. When she

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Speaker 1: was first asked the question, the easy answer is, I

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Speaker 1: don't think New Yorkers want a New Jersey person telling

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Speaker 1: them who to vote for. And I certainly don't want

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Speaker 1: New Yorkers telling New Jersey who they should be electing

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Speaker 1: as governor, you know, something along those lines. And I

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Speaker 1: think it just shows you this is happening to a

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Speaker 1: lot of Democrats. Nobody's quite sure how progressive is the

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Speaker 1: Democratic base. Will you get punished if you if you

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Speaker 1: sort of aren't seen as as sort of progressive enough?

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Speaker 1: Is it overrated? Underrated? And I think I've sensed that

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Speaker 1: quite a few Democratic candidates aren't sure right because the

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Speaker 1: people that show up to the fundraisers, the people that

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Speaker 1: show up to the events, they're very progressive. But is

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Speaker 1: that what you need? Are they not going to show

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Speaker 1: up if you sort of tack to the center. And

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Speaker 1: I think that New Jersey's going to be an interesting

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Speaker 1: test of this of all the three races that we're

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Speaker 1: all going to be watching very closely on election Night

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. And I'm going to be watching a

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Speaker 1: handful of other mayor's races too. As I've pointed out,

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Speaker 1: quite a few incumbent mayors are struggling. The incumbent mayor

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Speaker 1: of Seattle it ended up being the number two vote

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Speaker 1: getter in that all party primary or that non party

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Speaker 1: primary basically that Washington State holds. We've already seen the

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Speaker 1: mayor of Pittsburgh lose a primary, So there's definitely I

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Speaker 1: think there's in you know, it's not great to be

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Speaker 1: an incumbent, right, this is like one of those which

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Speaker 1: is also something else. You know, Mikey Cheryl has nothing

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Speaker 1: to do with Phil Murphy's administration, and yet it's a

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Speaker 1: Democrat trying to replace a Democrat. So in some ways,

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Speaker 1: she's kind of defending an incumbent administration. Where Abigail Spamberger, right,

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Speaker 1: she not only gets the benefit of sort of running

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Speaker 1: against the White House in Northern Virginia, but also it's

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Speaker 1: a Republican governor, and there's a sense of, you know,

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Speaker 1: she gets to sort of run as the outsider. And

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Speaker 1: I think we're more in an anti incumbent environment than

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Speaker 1: any sort of anti party environment. So that's one of

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Speaker 1: those cases where it could hurt the Democrat in New

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Speaker 1: Jersey but help the Democrat even more in Virginia. But

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Speaker 1: the point is is that there's this I don't think

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Speaker 1: we can barely say we really know if twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: six is really tilting in one direction or the other.

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Speaker 1: Right history says it should already be tilting towards the Democrats.

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Speaker 1: There's certainly plenty of underlining numbers showing that you'd probably

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Speaker 1: rather be a Democrat on the ballot in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: six than a Republican. But it's not as this doesn't

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Speaker 1: look like twenty eighteen. That doesn't mean it won't developed

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Speaker 1: that way. Could. Like I said, I think the biggest

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Speaker 1: uncertainty we have here is not what happens to a

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Speaker 1: candidate in New York City, or what happens in New

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Speaker 1: Year's e governor, or which candidates get recruited, or whether

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Speaker 1: Democrats can put more Senate seats in play. You know,

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Speaker 1: can they put Florida in play? Can they put a

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Speaker 1: Mississippi in play? Can they put a Kansas in play?

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Speaker 1: Can they put an Eye in play? You know, if

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Speaker 1: they're not putting two or three of those states that

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Speaker 1: I just ticked off there, they're not really going to

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Speaker 1: be able to make a viable case I could win

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Speaker 1: the majority the Senate. So then it all goes to

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Speaker 1: the House. Well, these redistricting fights, maybe that's also delaying

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Speaker 1: candidate interest. Right, that doesn't help, And all of that

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Speaker 1: just sort of delays delays. That said, if the economy

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Speaker 1: is as is as bad as some people fear it's

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Speaker 1: going to be in the spring of twenty six, right,

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Speaker 1: and what is bad is bad sort of rising unemployment

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Speaker 1: and rising inflation, right in this stagflation moment that folks

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Speaker 1: are worried about, or is it better than you think?

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Speaker 1: And then that could change the conversation quite a bit.

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Speaker 1: So right now you don't see the same level where

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Speaker 1: this anti Trump antagonism is supercharging financial enthusiasm and other

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Speaker 1: enthusiasm for the Democrats. And at the same time, the

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Speaker 1: big uncertainty, of course, is still going to be the

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Speaker 1: shape of the economy. In the spring of twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: So that said, we are living in an era of tumult,

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Speaker 1: We are living in an era that we vote more

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Speaker 1: against than what we're for. And it's that set up

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Speaker 1: that probably works best in describing the conversation that Charlie

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Speaker 1: Cook and I have coming up. So we'll sneak at

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Speaker 1: a break here, and when we come back, Charlie Cookman, Well,

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Speaker 1: joining me now is somebody who, in the world of

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Speaker 1: political analysis needs no introduction. It's the legendary. It's the

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Speaker 1: great Charlie Cook. And he's here because he also is

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Speaker 1: part of perhaps the single most important reference book in

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Speaker 1: both of our lives. It's called The Almanac of American Politics,

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Speaker 1: and the latest edition is hitting bookstores now ish or really,

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Speaker 1: why do we call it bookstores? Yes, there'll be a

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Speaker 1: few in bookstores, but you'll get to order it directly.

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Speaker 1: I'm one of those people that always says the older

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Speaker 1: the Almanac, the more useful it is. So and I

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Speaker 1: have to have every single one of them, and over

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Speaker 1: the years my ability, they go back to nineteen seventy two.

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Speaker 1: I finally have a complete set and got it completed

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Speaker 1: about ten or fifteen years ago. But the biggest impediment

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Speaker 1: to complete the set was always Charlie Cook, because every

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Speaker 1: time I went to a used bookstore in Washington, DC

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Speaker 1: looking for it, I put my name on a list

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Speaker 1: and they said, yeah, that's nice, but Charlie's ahead of

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Speaker 1: you in the list.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, any Bay works pretty well too. But I

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Speaker 2: did have two complete sets and then was having to

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Speaker 2: do a third because we were splitting the time between anyway.

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Speaker 2: So now I actually gave somebody a bunch of my extras,

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Speaker 2: so I've got two full sets.

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Speaker 1: Though. Well, what I joke with people about this is

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Speaker 1: that I'm in the sports I like sports cards, and

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Speaker 1: you know there is if you're trying to collect every

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Speaker 1: edition of the American Politics, there is a short print,

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Speaker 1: and the short print edition is nineteen seventy six, which

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Speaker 1: I would argue is the single most important one of

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Speaker 1: my generation because it was the first almanac after the

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Speaker 1: Watergate elections, which had this massive transformation, and you were

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Speaker 1: dying to read the almanac. And of all years that

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Speaker 1: they were short printed, that was a tough one because

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Speaker 1: I think I spent five hundred dollars on my nineteen

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Speaker 1: seventy sixth editions. It was so hard to find what

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Speaker 1: I my.

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Speaker 2: First in nineteen seventy two is a senior in high

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Speaker 2: school at a bookstore my hometown of Shreveport, Louisiana, and

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Speaker 2: have been addicted to it ever since. I think they're

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Speaker 2: at a max of twenty two hundred. I think like

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Speaker 2: twenty two hundred pages is the most I think they

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Speaker 2: could get into that kind of binding.

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Speaker 1: Is that what it is now?

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Speaker 2: And that's what that's the limited, That's what it was

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Speaker 2: the last two So I think that's probably what it

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Speaker 2: is time. I know you, my essay is about a

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Speaker 2: third or fourth the size that originally was.

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Speaker 1: Well, this is what I want to talk about. Look,

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Speaker 1: Michael Baron is the guy who came up with the

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Speaker 1: concept with Grand Jujifusa still his name on it. He's

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Speaker 1: less involvement. I don't think there's zero involvement. If I'm

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Speaker 1: not mistakes, he's still pretty involved. But you get to

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Speaker 1: write the opening essay. Does he write an essay anymore?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think, Well, I haven't seen the new one,

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Speaker 2: but I believe he's got Yeah. I think there are three,

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Speaker 2: at least three. Lou Jacobson, who's the quarterbacking the whole thing,

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Speaker 2: and Michael, I mean I think so. I think they're three,

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Speaker 2: and there may actually be a couple of others, but

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Speaker 2: there are a bunch of really really talented people involved.

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Speaker 2: Jessica Taylor, you know a lot people you all know well.

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Speaker 1: As I am a I always say that it is

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Speaker 1: it's different than most reference books because it you know,

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Speaker 1: there's it does have it was it's a better read

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Speaker 1: than c Q, That's what I used to say, and

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Speaker 1: I don't CQ sometimes had more information, but it was

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Speaker 1: but you learned less about each congressional district. I mean,

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Speaker 1: what Baron created was this model of essentially two profiles,

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Speaker 1: and one and half the profile of each district would

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Speaker 1: be about the district and about the economy of the

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Speaker 1: district and the culture of the district. And it really was,

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Speaker 1: you know, helped you understand the tapestry of America. And

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Speaker 1: then the other, frankly smaller part, unless it was a

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Speaker 1: well known lawmaker, would be the profile of the lawmaker themselves.

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Speaker 1: And literally the now I used to joke you could

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Speaker 1: track Michael Barone's political evolution by just reading hand Waxman

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Speaker 1: biography profiles from nineteen eighty two versus nineteen ninety six,

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Speaker 1: you know, and you could see, you know, the question

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Speaker 1: is did Henry Waxman change or did Michael Barone change?

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Speaker 1: But I say this with love. I love Michael and

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Speaker 1: his you know, we don't agreet everything, but the guy

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Speaker 1: I'll go in the latter. But yeah, the guy is

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Speaker 1: was a savant, is a savant on this stuff and

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Speaker 1: taught us all to learn, have to learn America one

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Speaker 1: district at a time.

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Speaker 2: A lot of people go from you know, I'm trying

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Speaker 2: to come up with a metaphor other than caterpillars and butterflies,

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Speaker 2: one of this little less less judgmental. But you know,

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Speaker 2: Pat Cadell, you know who was always a maverick, but

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Speaker 2: the last you know, eight ten years of his life,

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Speaker 2: was much more of a maverick than even he was

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Speaker 2: when he was a senior in college. And McGovern's pollster.

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Speaker 1: You know, some people are always outsiders, Yeah right, no

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Speaker 1: matter what, they're always outsiders, like Bernie Sanders. Strikes me

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Speaker 1: that he would always find a way to be the outsider,

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Speaker 1: even if he were put in charge, you know, right,

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Speaker 1: and in some ways that's Donald Trump. Well, let's start

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Speaker 1: with Look, the beauty of these of these almanacs is

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Speaker 1: it does try to sort of paint a picture in

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Speaker 1: a moment, right, where are we as a country in

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Speaker 1: this moment in time. This will be technically the Almanac

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Speaker 1: of American Politics twenty twenty six, but it's really about

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, you know, And what did we learn

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Speaker 1: about America in twenty twenty four and what does it

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Speaker 1: say of who we are in this moment? How did

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Speaker 1: you tackle your essay?

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Speaker 2: Well, I have a bit of a contrarian view. To me,

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Speaker 2: the twenty twenty four election was kind of a bifurcated

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Speaker 2: election that at the presidential level it had one outcome,

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Speaker 2: and then below that it had a very different one

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Speaker 2: at the top. It's astonishing how broad the declines were

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Speaker 2: for Democrats, both geographically and demographically. In fact that the

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Speaker 2: Catalyst study looked at one hundred different subgroups demographic subgroups,

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Speaker 2: and the Democratic percentage declined in ninety two out of

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Speaker 2: one hundred, and I think it went up in like

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Speaker 2: three and say the same at five or something like that.

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Speaker 2: And then you've seen the ones about you know, the

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Speaker 2: countings and stuff. But the thing is, but at the

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Speaker 2: same time, it was a tiny bit less than a

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Speaker 2: point and a half and so it was a horizontal loss,

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Speaker 2: but it wasn't a vertical loss either in the sense

429
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 2: of it being down that much or but more importantly,

430
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 2: you look down ballot, look at the House when you

431
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,640
Speaker 2: have it, I mean a gain. Democrats wanted to get

432
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 2: a majority. Yeah, absolutely, they didn't get it, but they

433
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 2: gained seats. Now do you lose an election if you

434
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 2: gain seats? I mean, you know, you may. It may

435
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 2: have been a disappointing election, but it wasn't the wipeout

436
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,160
Speaker 2: that people suggest it is. And then you look at

437
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 2: the Senate races, and you know, if you divide the

438
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 2: country up seven purple states, nineteen blue states, twenty four

439
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:12,919
Speaker 2: red states, Democrats won every one of the races in

440
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 2: blue states, Republicans won every one of the races in

441
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 2: red states, And there were five Senate races that were

442
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 2: in purple states and Democrats won four out of five.

443
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:26,199
Speaker 2: But the election is seen as a repudiation of the

444
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 2: entire Democratic Party. No net change in governors. There was

445
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 2: a net gain of one Republican in ags. There was

446
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 2: no net change in Secretary of State races, and the

447
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 2: change of Julia seats. The changes in state legislative seats

448
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 2: with less than a percentage point, so down ballot, this

449
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 2: was about as status quo or predictable election as you

450
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 2: could possibly possibly get.

451
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 1: You know, it reminds me I remember the ninety eight

452
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 1: min terms were barely budged anything. If I remember, I

453
00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 1: want to say five House seats total, maybe not a

454
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 1: single sentence set. It may have been zero. I think

455
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 1: in fact, I used to joke, right, Mitch McConnell was

456
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: the NRSC chair in two cycles and he had a

457
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 1: net loss of four in those two cycles ninety eight

458
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 1: and two thousand and two thousand, they ended up losing seats.

459
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 1: But I remember a headline. We came up with a

460
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 1: highline status quo. But wow, right, because the fact that

461
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 1: was status quo was the shock in ninety eight type

462
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 1: of thing is, I think what shocks everybody's a Trump

463
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 1: won the popular vote, so it feels like it was monumental,

464
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,120
Speaker 1: but when you look at everything else, nothing really budged.

465
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: That's basically what you what you're kind of.

466
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 2: Saying, Well, and you know we're going through a period

467
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:42,400
Speaker 2: where there's virtually no third party or independent vote, and

468
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 2: so you know there's going to be you know, likely

469
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 2: to be a majority, you know, or closetro majority, no matter,

470
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 2: no matter what. But you know, I got a little

471
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 2: bit more time on my hands. You know, when the

472
00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 2: last Democrat Democratic Senate Humbent lost re election general election

473
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 2: in a blue state, Mark Udall in Colorado in twenty fourteen.

474
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 2: The last Republican to lose in a red state general

475
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 2: election was Ted Stevens in Alaska in two thousand and eight,

476
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,959
Speaker 2: and that was after he was indicted, but before the

477
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 2: indictment was reversed, and that nowadays.

478
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 1: It's been over a decade, but over a decade since

479
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 1: Bluesta stayed blue unless unless the Democrats toxic.

480
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 2: And the same thing for Republicans in red states is

481
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 2: that basically all the action is in purple states.

482
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 1: And now Moore, right, like Roy Moore is about what

483
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 1: it takes for a Democrat to win in a red state.

484
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's a good definition. Chris Cloback in Kansas,

485
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 2: in the Kansas governor's race, you know, in my castle.

486
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 1: You know, Mike Castle died earlier this week, and they

487
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 1: were in fact, I wanted to make a bigger note

488
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 1: of it because it's funny. Mike Castle, in some ways

489
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 1: was an early victim of the mega movement. Right twenty

490
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: ten primary loses to this, you know, in a small primary.

491
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 1: The woman became famous for doing an ad saying I

492
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:15,679
Speaker 1: am not a witch. Chris Coons became a Senator for

493
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 1: life because of it, right, And it was a yeah,

494
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 1: it was.

495
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 2: I remember speaking to a group in Wilmington during that

496
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 2: race and both Coons and Mike Castle were on the program,

497
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 2: and I remember listening to Coons because I didn't know

498
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 2: that much about Coons and thinking, gosh, this guy's pretty good.

499
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 2: If he were everybody other than other than Mike Castle,

500
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 2: you know, this guy could easily like the Washington generals.

501
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: He was the poor guy that was that they put

502
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: up to go because the Delaware politics it was always

503
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: like a year turn type of thing, and it was like,

504
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 1: well it was Castle's turn. Everybody likes Castle fine, right,

505
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 1: Like Biden was barely endorsing Coons at the time. It

506
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: was sort of like, n Castle is a good guy,

507
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 1: it says, turn.

508
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 2: Well, small states there you also to have these these

509
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 2: non aggression packs in small states where you don't screw

510
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 2: with your colleague. And I'm trying to decide whether to

511
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 2: tell a story or not sure what the hell it

512
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 2: was right after Biden dropped out of it. It's a

513
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 2: it was the Neil Kennick story.

514
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: Well anyway, forty eight, yeah, eighty eight, race eight eighty seven.

515
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 2: Eighty eight, nine eighty eight. And it was the next

516
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 2: time he was up for reelection. And I get a

517
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 2: call from his his AA chief of staff, Ted Kaufman,

518
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 2: saying when are you going to be on the hill next?

519
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 2: And I said, well, so go buy. He pulls out

520
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 2: this three ring binder blue that says Market Opinion Research,

521
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 2: you know, which at the time was one of the

522
00:29:56,760 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 2: two big Republican polling firms, had the original and walking

523
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 2: through where clearly he had Roth's poll that Roth had

524
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 2: had done and was proving to me that it had

525
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 2: not damaged him in Delaware.

526
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: So here was the Democratic chief of staff getting a

527
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 1: Republican polsters at the Republican colleagues polling here, why don't

528
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 1: you take a look at this?

529
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, in the original notebook, so it wasn't even

530
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 2: a photocopy. We were talking about handing over a three

531
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 2: inch binder. And you know, you know, back in the

532
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 2: old days you said fun times. I had a media

533
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 2: consultant one time sitting me down with the let me

534
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 2: look at all the cross tabs on a poll that

535
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 2: was in anyway, it was basically proving that the guy

536
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 2: that was likely to win the Democratic Senate nomination had

537
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 2: no chance whatsoever in a general election. And it was

538
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 2: completely conjurary. Well up, you and I couldn't cite it,

539
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 2: couldn't quote it, but it was. It's nice to cover

540
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 2: an election when you have like really well informed information.

541
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, but nobody else. That's not the world. It's

542
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 1: not the world we live in these days where I

543
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 1: feel like, you know where I feel like even the

544
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 1: half I want to share something with you, You're like, am

545
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 1: I being worked? I being used? Right?

546
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 2: Like?

547
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: And I'm sure you we're all trying to end.

548
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 2: Back in the days when they were nightly.

549
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 3: Tracking, right, and there was a cycle when I won't

550
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:36,719
Speaker 3: get specific at all, but where someone was reading to

551
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 3: me the numbers in house races that they were getting

552
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 3: from their tracking, and they would do a quarter of

553
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 3: the races on Monday Tuesday, and another quarter on Wednesday Thursday,

554
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 3: and then the next week Monday Tuesday, another quarter, and

555
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 3: so every other week they had.

556
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 2: They had current numbers with on all the race, and yeah,

557
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 2: I look pretty small, aren't that year?

558
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 1: So let me let's I want to talk about a

559
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 1: conundrum that I consistently talk about, but I'm not one

560
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 1: hundred percent sure what to do about it, which is,

561
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 1: we live in an era of weak political parties and

562
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 1: strong political alliances. Right, the Red and Blue has never

563
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 1: been stronger, and the d n R has never been weaker.

564
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 2: Discuss to me the decline was we used to have

565
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 2: too broad based, ideologically and geographically diverse parties that overlapped

566
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 2: substantially with conservative Democrats that represented small town, small town

567
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 2: rural areas of the South, whatever, urban Republicans that represent

568
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 2: major metropolitan areas that George Voinovich's or Dick Luger or whatever,

569
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 2: and that each side had moderating influences and that and

570
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 2: that the people on the fringes were marginalized. And it

571
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 2: was when you started seeing the parties sorting out, and

572
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 2: that basically anybody that was remotely conservative abandoning the Democrat Party,

573
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 2: anybody remotely liberal abandoning the Republican Party. And suddenly you

574
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 2: know the distance between like right now, the distance between

575
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 2: the most liberal and the least liberal ends of the

576
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 2: Democratic Party aren't that far apart, and the same thing

577
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 2: on the Republican side most and least, and yet the

578
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 2: gap in between is the whitest it's ever been. And

579
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 2: so that you have two parties that have no overlap,

580
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 2: no agreement on any significant policy, no agreement on values,

581
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 2: and you know, it's borderline ungovernable. But to me, it

582
00:33:55,880 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 2: was when the parties became less diverse and more monolithic

583
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 2: and more inward focused and not they don't even understand

584
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 2: anybody that's not in their world. You know.

585
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: One of the theories I have, and it's just a theory.

586
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:16,479
Speaker 1: I want to run it by you. We were talking

587
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 1: about it before we started taping, is that when we

588
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: were ignorant about what voters believed. And what do I

589
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 1: mean by that, which is there was sort of a

590
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 1: pattern of of how campaigns were run in the eighties

591
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: and nineties and the modern TV campaigns. And on October

592
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 1: of the election year, Democratic incumbent ran the ad that

593
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 1: ragged about the Republican they worked with to get something passed,

594
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 1: and the Republican incumbent and state cs ragged about working

595
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 1: with a Democrat to get something done. Because there was

596
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 1: this agreement that whoever was undecided by October must be

597
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 1: vacillating between the two parties. They must be some sort

598
00:34:56,200 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 1: of centrist independent, not just independent, but some sort of

599
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 1: and they're a little this, a little of that. They

600
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:05,799
Speaker 1: really want consensus governing. So make the pitch, who's the

601
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 1: most believable consensus builder? Is how you win over that vote.

602
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,359
Speaker 1: And then in two thousand and four we learned more right,

603
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 1: micro targeting became something, and we found out and as

604
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 1: the campaigns learn more about these undecided voters, they realize, oh,

605
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:24,879
Speaker 1: they're not centrist, they're independences who don't neatly fit into

606
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 1: one box or the other. But there are a handful

607
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 1: of issues that they like on our side, so let's

608
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 1: exploit them.

609
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 2: Well, I highly commend your substock this morning on this,

610
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 2: and we're to me just wording it slightly differently. In

611
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 2: two thousand and four or probably three, Carl Rove and

612
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 2: his team would be probably met dud and Yon von Lowhausen.

613
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 2: Can moment we're looking at the undecided is the people

614
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:58,240
Speaker 2: that were really in the middle, and realize those people

615
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:03,240
Speaker 2: really don't like Bush and we could spend the gross

616
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:07,760
Speaker 2: domestic product of many countries and never win those people over,

617
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 2: so that we either have to conceive the election or

618
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 2: figure out how to organically grow our base because we're

619
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 2: not going to get a dispurportant share of the people

620
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:22,799
Speaker 2: in the middle. And they were skillful enough, and we're

621
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 2: a radial of ingenuity and we're able to do that.

622
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 2: And to me, the whole world went from persuasion oriented

623
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 2: to get out your base. And I think one was wrong,

624
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 2: but the other's wrong. But to me, you have to

625
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,320
Speaker 2: be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.

626
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 2: You need to be able to persuade the people that

627
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 2: are not locked into either party. But at the same

628
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 2: time you do have to keep your your base motivated.

629
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,840
Speaker 2: But right now, you know, I think you've got forty.

630
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 2: When we think back to the big state the swing

631
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 2: state votes, Paul that we saw in the last election,

632
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 2: undecided would be two percent.

633
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 1: I mean like that.

634
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 2: I mean in the old days, you saw a poll like.

635
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 1: Some of the Okay, but there's also a part of

636
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 1: me that believes polling has gotten so so accurate due

637
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 1: to voter files that many times what we are calling

638
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,359
Speaker 1: polls are kind of voter file projections with a little

639
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 1: bit of survey work, Yeah, a little bit of a

640
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 1: little bit, a little bit of modeling. Modeling, yeah, I

641
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 1: feel like and so when you model it, like, I

642
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 1: don't know, there's a part of me that longs for

643
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,799
Speaker 1: the totally open and don't go in there and give

644
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 1: me a raw data set and let me watch the

645
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:42,359
Speaker 1: raw data set over time. I feel like we're so

646
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 1: locked into the voter file companies because we want the

647
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 1: most accurate potential poll totally want that based on what

648
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 1: we think the electric is going to be versus what

649
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 1: could the electorate be if you start with just a

650
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 1: huge baseline on adults and then go from there. And

651
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:03,280
Speaker 1: I do think, no, there's no mainstream political operative looks

652
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 1: at the campaigns that way anymore. They almost begin with

653
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 1: a voter file, which means you begin at forty seven percent.

654
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 2: But let me look at it from a less technical Uh.

655
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 2: You know, it used to be someone who said, you know, Democrat, Republican, independent,

656
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 2: and then you say, well do you lean Democrat lean Republican?

657
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,400
Speaker 2: And they would vote that way more often than not.

658
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 2: But right now when you look at people that say

659
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 2: I'm independent but lean Democrat and you look at their vote,

660
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:37,840
Speaker 2: how they actually end up voting the virtually at partisan

661
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 2: as Democrats were the same thing on the on the

662
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,919
Speaker 2: Republican side. So that what you've got is forty seven

663
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:47,800
Speaker 2: forty eight percent locked in for either side each side,

664
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 2: and then the two or three percent in the middle

665
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 2: that we used to think of as centrists, you know,

666
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 2: equid distance between the left and the right.

667
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 1: They are not that.

668
00:38:55,800 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, A lot of times these are people they read, watch,

669
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 2: listen to news, current events less than partisans. They don't

670
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 2: follow politics. They're even more skeptical than other people are

671
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 2: about politicians and parties, and they vote in small, very

672
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 2: small numbers, and so but there are no defections. There

673
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:24,359
Speaker 2: are no Democrats or independent democratically independence that will ever

674
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:29,720
Speaker 2: vote for Republican and vice versa. So there is no consensus.

675
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 2: And we were talking before went on the air. Was

676
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:38,319
Speaker 2: the last landslide defined as ten points or more? Well,

677
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 2: first of all, you have to give it to it

678
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:44,360
Speaker 2: would be eighty four and why not?

679
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 1: Why not eighty eight?

680
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:51,720
Speaker 2: Eighty eight? I looked at I was actually just doing

681
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 2: some of this. It has been wait, it's been keen

682
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 2: elections since we had a margin of nine points or more,

683
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 2: and that was Reagan eighty four, Sous was eight points.

684
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 1: I always thought that was a bigger white. I think

685
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:11,719
Speaker 1: it was.

686
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:14,760
Speaker 2: It was it was like eight and seven and change,

687
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,240
Speaker 2: you're a little over eight. But it did not round

688
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:22,479
Speaker 2: to It didn't round Reagan in nineteen eighty rounded to ten.

689
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 2: But I went into a panic a week or two

690
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 2: ago Dave Leap's political atlas was offline, and I for

691
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 2: like days and I thought, oh my god, what are

692
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 2: we going to do?

693
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 1: Well? It was interesting about the Bush docaccas because I

694
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 1: just double checked it myself, because I you know, because

695
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 1: Bush got over four hundred electoral votes. In your head,

696
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:50,359
Speaker 1: you feel like, oh, that must have been a ten

697
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 1: point victory. And eleven point victory. Well that tells you

698
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 1: something about how you know, he won a lot of

699
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 1: states close right, in order to get in order to

700
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 1: get his But he won every if I'm not mistaken,

701
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 1: he won every big state but New York, right, he

702
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 1: won California, He won Texas and any one Florida. And

703
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,359
Speaker 1: you win those three that puts you in a.

704
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 2: Well, that's you know, in a way, you could look

705
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:14,479
Speaker 2: at this last election say, I mean where we are

706
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 2: is that very small shifts in votes are when you

707
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 2: have parties that are diametrically opposite of each other, and

708
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 2: the country is evenly, narrowly deeply divided. Really small shifts

709
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:36,280
Speaker 2: are enormously consequential. So that you know, if someone normally

710
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 2: would tell me that you know, a Democratic nominee would

711
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 2: get would would drop in ninety percent of the counties

712
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 2: in the country and drop in ninety two out of

713
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 2: one hundred demographic groups, You'd say, gosh, they must have

714
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,359
Speaker 2: had the rear end hand. But the parents only lost

715
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:55,800
Speaker 2: by one point four or five percent.

716
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 1: Well, let me ask, let me frame this, because I

717
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:10,760
Speaker 1: think this is a problem. The Democratic Party has an answer.

718
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 1: Did they lose by a little or a lot?

719
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 2: Well?

720
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 1: Right, how do you behave as a party? Do you

721
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 1: behave as if you because you know, Tommy, let me

722
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 1: give you some interesting framework. I did this story about

723
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 1: Wisconsin's polarization. Right, I've always said that, you know, before

724
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:29,399
Speaker 1: America got polarized, Wisconsin was there first, right the two

725
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:33,480
Speaker 1: thousand election. You know, after Florida, Wisconsin was the next closest.

726
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 1: And Wisconsin has been consistently on Barack Obama's the only

727
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 1: one in the twenty first century who's been able to

728
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:41,840
Speaker 1: win that state by a bigger than a couple of points.

729
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 1: And Tommy Thompson said something. I had had a joint

730
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 1: interview between him and Jim Doyle because they were the

731
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:51,240
Speaker 1: last two governors to win by more than five points.

732
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 1: And Tommy said something. He goes, you know what, sometimes

733
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 1: you don't lose by enough to do what you need.

734
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 1: You know, when you only lose by a little, by

735
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 1: a point, you think, oh, for one more fundraiser, one

736
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,439
Speaker 1: more door knock, one more better ad, you can win.

737
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 1: So you don't think you have to change that much.

738
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 1: When you lose by ten points, you think, huh, maybe

739
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:11,920
Speaker 1: we need to rethink this.

740
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:17,279
Speaker 2: Take the flip side of that. Let's say hypothetically a

741
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 2: someone wins the presidency by a margin of fewer than

742
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty thousand votes scattered across four states.

743
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 2: Their party only has fifty seats in the Senate, so

744
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 2: vice president breaking a tie, they lose seats in the House,

745
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,840
Speaker 2: but hold on to a majority by what five six

746
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 2: and yet a mandate to do historic and transformational things. No,

747
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 2: he was barely one.

748
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 1: And to me, you're describing I hope people realize you're

749
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:51,839
Speaker 1: describing twenty twenty.

750
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 2: Yes, and that I don't think. I think twenty twenty

751
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:01,359
Speaker 2: was a reverendum up or down on Donald Trump, and

752
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 2: it was close, but Trump lost. But it was not

753
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 2: only Biden had anything to do with the outcome of

754
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:10,399
Speaker 2: the two. Then twenty twenty four, even with Biden dropping out,

755
00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 2: it was a referendum up or down on Biden. I agree,

756
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 2: And I don't think Donald Trump won that election. It's

757
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 2: that Biden. Well, it was a repudiation of President Biden,

758
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 2: the Biden Harris administration and by extension, Vice President Harris.

759
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 2: It was up or down, and that when Democrats were

760
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 2: so pissed off at number one, how did you blow well,

761
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 2: first of all, how did you mismanage the economy in

762
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 2: your first year enough to drop fourteen points in job

763
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 2: approval rating in four months? And Afghanistan, oh, by the way,

764
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 2: to border So it's like you and then the party

765
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 2: gets ticked off and you lost. I mean it to me,

766
00:44:55,719 --> 00:45:00,040
Speaker 2: it was Democrats punted the presidency away and they I

767
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 2: will not acknowledge it. They will not that it was

768
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 2: their own damn fault.

769
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 1: Yes, no, I believe that. I don't know if they're operating,

770
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 1: you know, as I've said a few times, I'm not

771
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 1: sure they've lost enough yet to make the changes they

772
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:14,439
Speaker 1: need to make.

773
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:19,240
Speaker 2: We you know, I'm not not a corner or medical examiner,

774
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 2: what even a biology major. But I think when you

775
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 2: do an autopsy, one of the things you try to

776
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:29,720
Speaker 2: do early on is figure out the time of death.

777
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:35,399
Speaker 2: And I think the death was in the first nine

778
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:36,960
Speaker 2: months of twenty twenty one.

779
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that I fully agree. Think about the fact

780
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 1: I think about this, you know, I go back and

781
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 1: my thesis on this is that following Charlie, which was

782
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 1: and this is where I think Trump is running into

783
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 1: a potential juggernaut himself, a problem himself, which is the

784
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,800
Speaker 1: one thing the public thought Biden was good at was

785
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 1: foreign policy. It was a core competency. And when he

786
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:03,839
Speaker 1: failed on a core competency test, it poisoned everything else.

787
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 1: You're like, boy, if you're terrible at that, we already

788
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 1: you know, well, forget it this whole thing, because what

789
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 1: else explains that the minute he loses altitude on that issue? Right,

790
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,839
Speaker 1: he was at fifty three in July, and he goes

791
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,479
Speaker 1: down to forty five, and he never gets there again, right,

792
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 1: drops below forty five, never gets there again, and at

793
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:28,880
Speaker 1: that moment and he never can recover. It tells me

794
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 1: that the public never, never was never was bought into him,

795
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 1: and then the minute he fails on something they thought

796
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 1: wasn't going to be an issue. Joe Biden informed policy,

797
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:43,719
Speaker 1: the one thing that he was a perceived expert on.

798
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 1: And this is where I think Trump is. You know,

799
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 1: Trump was elected for one reason, fix the economy, and

800
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:52,960
Speaker 1: the economy isn't worse. Yeah, I like, I mean, I.

801
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 2: Like your framework, but let me frame it slightly differently.

802
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:57,560
Speaker 1: Okay, that.

803
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 2: Biden had run for president in eighty eight. In two

804
00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:07,239
Speaker 2: thousand and eight, comes in fourth place in Iowa, comes

805
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:11,359
Speaker 2: in fifth place in New Hampshire. The party starts looking

806
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 2: around and realizing that they're, you know, the the that

807
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:21,440
Speaker 2: Bernie was consolidating the left, eclipsing Warren, that the center

808
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:25,400
Speaker 2: left was split, you know, basically twelve fifteen ways with

809
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:30,240
Speaker 2: Bloomberg getting in, and the party panics and Clyburn moves,

810
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 2: and that Biden won the nomination because he wasn't Bernie

811
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 2: Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.

812
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 1: Right, he didn't win on a on a up here

813
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 1: he went. He won because of who he wasn't, not

814
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:42,440
Speaker 1: because of who.

815
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:44,799
Speaker 2: He was right and then won the general election because

816
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,240
Speaker 2: he wasn't Donald Trump. But the thing is, they thought

817
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:51,319
Speaker 2: they were going with a guy to be coming in

818
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:54,200
Speaker 2: around the forty yard line thirty seven thirty eight, forty

819
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:58,759
Speaker 2: yard line left of midfield, but not that far. That's

820
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 2: what they thought they were getting.

821
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 1: But that's sort of didn't govern that way. Look, I

822
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,279
Speaker 1: do Ron Klain came in as chief of staff, and

823
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 1: I didn't expect this. He ended up being much more

824
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:15,720
Speaker 1: progressive and much more with his ear to the ground,

825
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 1: the on the on the groups than I think any

826
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 1: of us thought. As I joke with about Ron, he

827
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 1: wasn't Evan Buys, he wasn't even by Democrat anymore.

828
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, I think that each of the parties has

829
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 2: become so inward focused that they don't and part of

830
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,280
Speaker 2: it maybe goes back to your two thousand and fourth

831
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 2: thing is they've become so internally focused that they have

832
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 2: no comprehension of what anyone that's not in their base

833
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 2: thinks or views anything. And that, I mean, I think

834
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 2: one of the things that's keeping Trump from I mean,

835
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:00,440
Speaker 2: his numbers are ready, I mean, you.

836
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 1: Know, good, they're forty five, right, and it's like, yeah, yeah,

837
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:07,360
Speaker 1: depending only one of those that's ready to say forty

838
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 1: five to the new fifty. It has been the last

839
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 1: ten years.

840
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,840
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, But that's because of the decisions that

841
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 2: people make. But the thing is, he he thinks he

842
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 2: hit the power ball, just the way Biden thought he

843
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 2: hit the power ball, when basically you won because who

844
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 2: you weren't. But but the thing is, I think one

845
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:27,839
Speaker 2: of the things that props him up some is that

846
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:34,799
Speaker 2: there are issues that that Trump has correctly identified as

847
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 2: something that a decent share of the electorate thinks is important,

848
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 2: and so he gets the direction right, but overdoes the

849
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:50,200
Speaker 2: degree so that I think I think a lot of

850
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 2: most wing voters think that no president modern time has

851
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:59,480
Speaker 2: done jack on the border. Now Trump, maybe he went

852
00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:04,400
Speaker 2: to far or border immigration, but at least they agree

853
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 2: with the direction he's going. Oh.

854
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 1: I've always thought Democrats misinterpreted, you know, when the public

855
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:12,239
Speaker 1: didn't like what Trump was doing at the border in

856
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 1: the first term. They didn't like the tactics, they liked

857
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:18,920
Speaker 1: the goal. And I think Democrats, particularly those presidential candidates,

858
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:21,640
Speaker 1: so that I you know, I was on that stage

859
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:23,640
Speaker 1: moderating that debate when they all raised their hand to

860
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 1: decriminalize the border other than Biden, right, which was, my god,

861
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 1: the smartest hand he never raised. And you're like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

862
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:34,600
Speaker 1: You're you know, the public didn't like the act. I

863
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 1: always say this what makes up Look, Populists are usually

864
00:50:38,280 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 1: pretty good at identifying issues. They're really bad about implementation

865
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:45,319
Speaker 1: and execution. And I think Trump identified the issues that

866
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:48,840
Speaker 1: the public does care about his execution they don't like,

867
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 1: and Democrats misinterpreted that that dislike of the execution is dislike.

868
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:56,319
Speaker 2: Of the idea and that was the mistake. Well, I mean,

869
00:50:56,320 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 2: I think it's direction and degree. I would say the

870
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 2: same thing on true trade, there's a feeling like, well

871
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 2: we we've been taking advantage of some So he correctly

872
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:10,719
Speaker 2: figured out a direction that was a source of frustration

873
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:14,360
Speaker 2: for people, but overdid it, you know, with the terris,

874
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:21,560
Speaker 2: I would say, keeping restraining the growth in government. Got

875
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:27,439
Speaker 2: the direction right, but the degree way off, and so

876
00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 2: he he's they don't have the ability to calibrate.

877
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 1: Let me throw something else at you because it gets

878
00:51:34,640 --> 00:51:36,759
Speaker 1: it to what you were discussing, because you said something

879
00:51:36,800 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 1: interesting to me before we were talking that the last

880
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 1: time a president won by more than ten points and

881
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:46,040
Speaker 1: had big majorities in Congress. Is basically LBJ sixty four.

882
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:49,040
Speaker 1: But there's another phenomenon that I you know, that I

883
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:51,440
Speaker 1: like to point out in my talks, which is, I

884
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:53,960
Speaker 1: note that six of the last basically for the entire

885
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 1: twenty first century, right, starting with two thousand, counting that

886
00:51:56,640 --> 00:51:59,400
Speaker 1: election as a twenty first century election, six of our

887
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:02,799
Speaker 1: last seven presidential elections have been decided by five points

888
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:06,399
Speaker 1: or less. In the entire twentieth century, Charlie, we only

889
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:09,799
Speaker 1: had five decided by five points or less, right, And

890
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:13,320
Speaker 1: in fact, the last time in the twentieth century, the

891
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:15,920
Speaker 1: latest election that was decided by five points or less

892
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:18,719
Speaker 1: in the twentieth century was sixty eight.

893
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 2: Well, and we've had a series of what three one

894
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:25,439
Speaker 2: term and two terms?

895
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:29,920
Speaker 1: We have three straight one termers since the nineteenth century.

896
00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:33,960
Speaker 1: We didn't have that. We didn't have that once in

897
00:52:34,040 --> 00:52:37,760
Speaker 1: the where we had three straight presidencies where we chose

898
00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:39,759
Speaker 1: a different party.

899
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:42,799
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I mean basically, when they reupt with

900
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:46,280
Speaker 2: h W after eight years of Reagan is the only time,

901
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:49,880
Speaker 2: you know, certainly in our lifetimes, in anybody else's lifetime,

902
00:52:50,920 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 2: that that's happened. But to me, when I get to

903
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:57,279
Speaker 2: the forty seven, forty eight, this forty eight percent, and

904
00:52:57,280 --> 00:52:58,880
Speaker 2: then you have this little group of people in the

905
00:52:58,880 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 2: middle that they're not there's no they have no coherent

906
00:53:03,640 --> 00:53:06,799
Speaker 2: ideology whatsoever. I mean, they're all over the all over

907
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:10,279
Speaker 2: the place, or or more importantly, they don't vote for

908
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:15,720
Speaker 2: anybody or anything. They vote against the who I'm mad at,

909
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:22,040
Speaker 2: disappointed in, or afraid of. And so no matter who wins,

910
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:25,800
Speaker 2: there's not a democratic mandate. There's not a republican mandate.

911
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:31,239
Speaker 2: There's not a liberal, conservative, progressive, populist, libertarian. There are

912
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:35,799
Speaker 2: no mandates anymore. So that if a party, if a

913
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:40,359
Speaker 2: someone got elected president was smart enough to just kind

914
00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:43,520
Speaker 2: of aim towards that forty yard line on whichever side

915
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 2: they're on, and they've got a fair chance of sticking

916
00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:47,760
Speaker 2: around for a while.

917
00:53:48,520 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 1: Look, it's not lost on me that Obama is the

918
00:53:52,239 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 1: last president to at least try the whole red you know,

919
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:57,000
Speaker 1: the whole unity message. An he won by he's only

920
00:53:57,000 --> 00:53:58,880
Speaker 1: one that won by more than five right, he won

921
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 1: by six. Right. He did as you said, he did

922
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:03,799
Speaker 1: the walk and chew gum. He expanded his party base,

923
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:06,719
Speaker 1: you know, and he did that with micro targeting, but

924
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 1: he also had a closing consensus message to try to persuade,

925
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:12,839
Speaker 1: you know, have a he won. As I always say,

926
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,880
Speaker 1: there's two types in two thousand and eight, we have

927
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 1: two types of presidents in my lifetime when I call

928
00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 1: the fifty percent presidents and the sixty percent presidents. Right,

929
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:25,200
Speaker 1: those that strove for a sixty percent approval rating, they

930
00:54:25,200 --> 00:54:26,920
Speaker 1: know they'd never win sixty percent of the vote, but

931
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 1: they wanted. You know, Reagan and Clinton believed they were

932
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:32,400
Speaker 1: winning if they had a sixty percent job rating. And

933
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 1: now and then it was Bush who said, well, I

934
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:37,600
Speaker 1: only need fifty percent plus one to win. And when

935
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:40,720
Speaker 1: that became right when we dropped six fifty, when fifty

936
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:43,200
Speaker 1: became the new sixty, and we, by the way, talking

937
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 1: about doing it everywhere, including in the filibuster, right when

938
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 1: we stopped. Like to me, that's not lost on me,

939
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 1: when we dropped the judicial nomination process essentially from needing

940
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:57,839
Speaker 1: sixty to needing fifty, we have an entirely different polarized judiciary, right,

941
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:01,759
Speaker 1: We have a judiciary polarized by ideology. When we were

942
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:04,440
Speaker 1: going for sixty, we were actually looking for umpires.

943
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 2: Well, first of all, there's no reason to have a

944
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:09,440
Speaker 2: US Senate anymore. I mean they were there.

945
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:12,440
Speaker 1: It is Boy, that's a hot take. There is no

946
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:15,200
Speaker 1: reason clip that. Lord, there is no reason to have

947
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:16,240
Speaker 1: a US Senate anymore.

948
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:17,120
Speaker 2: It's Charlie.

949
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 1: The thing is.

950
00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:20,400
Speaker 2: And I say this as someone who who started the

951
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:22,919
Speaker 2: freshman in college working in the Senate. I'm a Senate guy.

952
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:24,480
Speaker 1: I linized the Senate.

953
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:27,759
Speaker 2: I don't. For me, the beginning of the end was

954
00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:33,759
Speaker 2: when the First Reconciliation Act was done, and when when

955
00:55:33,800 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 2: you needed sixty votes for something contentious, when you dropped

956
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:41,160
Speaker 2: it so you could just jam the hell out of

957
00:55:41,200 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 2: the other party. And you know, I think people are

958
00:55:44,560 --> 00:55:46,879
Speaker 2: like voters are like animals in the center. You put

959
00:55:46,920 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 2: them in a quarter and you if they feel threatened,

960
00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:57,560
Speaker 2: they they're gonna lash out. And it's it's it's it's

961
00:55:57,640 --> 00:56:01,640
Speaker 2: when they you drop the threshold down to basically majority

962
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:07,960
Speaker 2: to avoid a filibuster, it's lowering the conference the h

963
00:56:08,160 --> 00:56:12,520
Speaker 2: I mean, which one of these controversial cabinet members or

964
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:17,400
Speaker 2: justices would have had a chance of getting sixty votes

965
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 2: in the Senate.

966
00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:21,800
Speaker 1: I have them, and maybe Scott Bessett he might have

967
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:24,040
Speaker 1: gotten sixty. Well, I don't put put him in the

968
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:28,880
Speaker 1: controversial category. I don't either absolutely Rubio would have gotten that,

969
00:56:28,920 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 1: which either because he did.

970
00:56:30,440 --> 00:56:34,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay, I'll give you a Rubio. But

971
00:56:35,120 --> 00:56:40,720
Speaker 2: it's it's when people feel threatened that they do things

972
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 2: that they otherwise wouldn't and that now we see people

973
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 2: in politics doing things. Everything's existential everything, And I don't

974
00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:56,759
Speaker 2: know when I got up there, it sure as hell

975
00:56:56,920 --> 00:56:57,400
Speaker 2: wasn't like that.

976
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 1: And so is this something that we had, like, you know,

977
00:57:02,640 --> 00:57:05,080
Speaker 1: are you a believer? To get this back, we actually

978
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:09,279
Speaker 1: have to probably put some erect to guard like we

979
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:11,960
Speaker 1: had norms that handled this and now we don't, right,

980
00:57:12,200 --> 00:57:14,440
Speaker 1: And I think that, you know, I think about what

981
00:57:14,480 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 1: does if we want to sort of if we want

982
00:57:20,080 --> 00:57:23,840
Speaker 1: to reanimate the republic post Trump, we might actually have

983
00:57:23,920 --> 00:57:26,680
Speaker 1: to make some large changes, not small ones, and maybe

984
00:57:26,720 --> 00:57:28,800
Speaker 1: they are constitutional. Yeah.

985
00:57:28,840 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 2: I've been playing with the idea of a book about

986
00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:35,240
Speaker 2: how it's what we've been talking about, how things went wrong,

987
00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:39,960
Speaker 2: why they went wrong. And I think, at least in

988
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:41,600
Speaker 2: my mind, I think I'm going to gut it down.

989
00:57:41,760 --> 00:57:43,960
Speaker 2: But I don't as a solution, I.

990
00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:46,680
Speaker 1: Don't have one. I I could explain it all that

991
00:57:46,840 --> 00:57:49,320
Speaker 1: I had heard incredible.

992
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:55,000
Speaker 2: And it's it's kind of cheesy to write a book

993
00:57:55,160 --> 00:58:00,240
Speaker 2: that goes into chapter and verse how bad things are

994
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 2: and how they got there, and not offer any hope

995
00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:04,680
Speaker 2: at all on the other end of it.

996
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 1: And now, no, I'm I'm you know, I will say this.

997
00:58:09,720 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 1: I think that if you look at our country's history,

998
00:58:12,680 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 1: every time we've had a robust third party challenge, it

999
00:58:16,040 --> 00:58:19,400
Speaker 1: sobered up the two parties, right, whether it was Roosevelt

1000
00:58:19,440 --> 00:58:21,760
Speaker 1: in nineteen twelve. What I could argue is, if you

1001
00:58:21,760 --> 00:58:24,800
Speaker 1: look at the various moments where we've had a insurgent

1002
00:58:24,920 --> 00:58:29,200
Speaker 1: challenge from the outside, George Wallace, Teddy, Roosevelt, Ross Peurot,

1003
00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:34,040
Speaker 1: that the outcome changed the two major parties in a

1004
00:58:34,080 --> 00:58:36,800
Speaker 1: way to prevent that from happening again for one reason

1005
00:58:36,920 --> 00:58:39,479
Speaker 1: or the other. You know, I've always looked at ninety

1006
00:58:39,520 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 1: two as it really ended up, arguably in the short term,

1007
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:46,440
Speaker 1: giving more definition of both parties. Right. It made Republicans

1008
00:58:46,480 --> 00:58:48,920
Speaker 1: a little more sensitive on trade, made the Democrats a

1009
00:58:48,920 --> 00:58:51,920
Speaker 1: little more fiscally a little more sensitive on deficit and

1010
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:54,960
Speaker 1: fiscal issues. Right. Bill Clinton is not a deficit minded

1011
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:57,680
Speaker 1: president without Ross purerout. And I don't think that the

1012
00:58:57,720 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 1: Republican Party moves towards this protection, this mindset without Rossborough.

1013
00:59:02,200 --> 00:59:05,280
Speaker 2: Let me put a slightly different frame on it. Generally,

1014
00:59:05,320 --> 00:59:09,280
Speaker 2: when we've been heading down the tubes, they'd been the

1015
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:12,800
Speaker 2: great person came along or the big event.

1016
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:15,440
Speaker 1: Yea, and the.

1017
00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:19,320
Speaker 2: Great person we've been lucky because that happened a lot.

1018
00:59:19,840 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 2: The question I have is would the great man, would

1019
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:26,920
Speaker 2: the great woman? Would they run for elective office? And

1020
00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:30,600
Speaker 2: how would they win a primary? Yeah, and you can't

1021
00:59:30,640 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 2: win the general. You can't win the presidency if you're

1022
00:59:33,680 --> 00:59:35,960
Speaker 2: not one or the other because of the electoral college.

1023
00:59:36,840 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 2: And so you say, well, okay, what about event. Okay,

1024
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 2: let's then attack on the contrary. Okay, that worked for

1025
00:59:49,360 --> 00:59:51,760
Speaker 2: a couple of years after nine to eleven, and then

1026
00:59:52,000 --> 00:59:55,120
Speaker 2: it kind of came undone and then you say, okay,

1027
00:59:55,240 --> 00:59:58,760
Speaker 2: maybe a once a century public health crisis. Oh wait,

1028
00:59:58,840 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 2: that made that worse. And so if the great man

1029
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:07,400
Speaker 2: or woman is unlike could get in or get anywhere,

1030
01:00:08,040 --> 01:00:12,440
Speaker 2: and if the big event either has a short shelf

1031
01:00:12,520 --> 01:00:14,160
Speaker 2: life or makes things.

1032
01:00:13,920 --> 01:00:21,040
Speaker 1: Worse, and there's only one other solution, Charlie, it's control

1033
01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:26,120
Speaker 1: old delete, it's reboot, and yeah it is rough.

1034
01:00:26,160 --> 01:00:30,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And I don't pretend to understand how that works.

1035
01:00:30,880 --> 01:00:34,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I look, it's funny you say that on

1036
01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 1: the solutions I get very micro and some solutions like

1037
01:00:37,760 --> 01:00:41,640
Speaker 1: I think uncapping the house could have a huge impact

1038
01:00:41,680 --> 01:00:45,800
Speaker 1: in a positive way if we double, if we mandated,

1039
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:48,640
Speaker 1: I actually came up with a percentage point zero zero

1040
01:00:48,760 --> 01:00:51,320
Speaker 1: zero one percent of the population. No district should ever

1041
01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:54,160
Speaker 1: be bigger than that represent more than that, which right

1042
01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:57,160
Speaker 1: now would put congressional districts at one per four hundred

1043
01:00:57,160 --> 01:00:59,560
Speaker 1: thousand rather than one per eight hundred thousand, which is

1044
01:00:59,560 --> 01:01:02,920
Speaker 1: where we're see. You double, you'd essentially double the size.

1045
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:07,800
Speaker 1: You'd make gerrymandering less necessary, not saying you wouldn't have

1046
01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 1: it less impactful perhaps, and you might lower the barrier

1047
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:16,320
Speaker 1: of who could be in Congress. Right in theory, I

1048
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:19,240
Speaker 1: don't think it's like there is a you're well, but

1049
01:01:19,320 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 1: smaller districts should allow more working class people to want

1050
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:22,320
Speaker 1: to run well.

1051
01:01:22,360 --> 01:01:24,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the thing is, I mean, I've heard

1052
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:29,480
Speaker 2: you talk about expanding the house when you know I

1053
01:01:29,520 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 2: think you'd probably just get more of the same thing.

1054
01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:35,800
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think size is the issue, but.

1055
01:01:36,000 --> 01:01:38,600
Speaker 1: It is it closer to the people And that's my

1056
01:01:38,800 --> 01:01:41,440
Speaker 1: issue is that I think right now, every congressional district

1057
01:01:41,760 --> 01:01:44,080
Speaker 1: when you when you're the size of a major city,

1058
01:01:44,560 --> 01:01:47,720
Speaker 1: eight hundred thousand is the size of Austin, Texas, which

1059
01:01:47,760 --> 01:01:51,919
Speaker 1: is the fifteenth largest city in America. Charlie, you can

1060
01:01:51,960 --> 01:01:55,600
Speaker 1: factionalize is does Austin speak as one? Right? You can

1061
01:01:55,640 --> 01:01:59,800
Speaker 1: factionalize and take charge of a community of eight hundred thousand. Weirdly,

1062
01:02:00,080 --> 01:02:03,040
Speaker 1: community of four in one thousand, you might actually have

1063
01:02:03,080 --> 01:02:04,360
Speaker 1: to have more consensus.

1064
01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:07,440
Speaker 2: See, I'm trying to figure out whether the state of

1065
01:02:07,560 --> 01:02:11,720
Speaker 2: New Hampshire, with four hundred State House members for a

1066
01:02:11,800 --> 01:02:17,200
Speaker 2: state that's only big enough for two CDs, they have.

1067
01:02:17,320 --> 01:02:22,240
Speaker 1: A wildly independent I don't know Hampshire. I think New

1068
01:02:22,240 --> 01:02:25,200
Speaker 1: Hampshire is some of the smartest voters in the country.

1069
01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:28,720
Speaker 1: Because of that, it's also is not terribly representative of.

1070
01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:31,520
Speaker 2: A lot of places. But you know, but I.

1071
01:02:34,080 --> 01:02:36,120
Speaker 1: That's a full de tooke fall on you. But that's

1072
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 1: what he marveled at. He thought it was amazing our

1073
01:02:38,920 --> 01:02:41,480
Speaker 1: townships and stuff. I thought, we love that.

1074
01:02:41,520 --> 01:02:46,400
Speaker 2: Part of the problem is that people aren't learning civics,

1075
01:02:47,120 --> 01:02:51,919
Speaker 2: they aren't learning history, and they're not learning economics, and

1076
01:02:52,000 --> 01:02:58,360
Speaker 2: that the idea of federalism. And I know you've not

1077
01:02:58,400 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 2: too long ago read the papers from start to finish

1078
01:03:02,280 --> 01:03:05,080
Speaker 2: the concept of separation of powers and why we have

1079
01:03:05,360 --> 01:03:06,560
Speaker 2: a separation of powers.

1080
01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:08,720
Speaker 1: And I don't think Donald Trump's record federalist papers. By

1081
01:03:08,720 --> 01:03:10,920
Speaker 1: the way, Charlie, excuse me. I don't think Donald Trump's

1082
01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:13,480
Speaker 1: ever read a federalist paper. By the way. I'm not

1083
01:03:13,640 --> 01:03:15,000
Speaker 1: going there. But I know.

1084
01:03:17,720 --> 01:03:21,479
Speaker 2: That there were reasons why this system was built this way,

1085
01:03:22,600 --> 01:03:25,240
Speaker 2: and reason why the Senate was made this way and

1086
01:03:25,240 --> 01:03:27,640
Speaker 2: the House was made this way, and the check I mean,

1087
01:03:27,680 --> 01:03:31,200
Speaker 2: and you know each of the three coequal branches were

1088
01:03:31,240 --> 01:03:34,919
Speaker 2: designed to be able to keep either of the other

1089
01:03:35,040 --> 01:03:38,920
Speaker 2: two from getting too powerful. I mean, it was a.

1090
01:03:39,000 --> 01:03:42,920
Speaker 1: Brilliant I always look back. The fact is they foreshadowed

1091
01:03:42,920 --> 01:03:46,080
Speaker 1: every potential problem we're facing, and they had a solution

1092
01:03:46,240 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 1: for it. We just don't. As I say, the tools

1093
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:51,000
Speaker 1: are there, we're just choosing not to pick them up.

1094
01:03:51,560 --> 01:03:55,560
Speaker 2: And I'm part of it blame education, but part of

1095
01:03:55,600 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 2: it is that there's getting into your other favorite subject.

1096
01:04:03,520 --> 01:04:06,360
Speaker 2: People don't can see now, I mean the share of

1097
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:14,320
Speaker 2: people that have any coherent intake of news in any

1098
01:04:14,360 --> 01:04:18,760
Speaker 2: systemic way as opposed to just sort of a la carte,

1099
01:04:18,920 --> 01:04:22,400
Speaker 2: just sort of pick up whatever accidentally comes in over

1100
01:04:22,480 --> 01:04:28,360
Speaker 2: your Facebook or something, so that we have leaders that

1101
01:04:28,600 --> 01:04:34,880
Speaker 2: aren't worthy of leaders and voters that aren't really doing

1102
01:04:34,920 --> 01:04:38,040
Speaker 2: the due diligence that a voter should do.

1103
01:04:38,400 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 1: They're not taking their citizenship as seriously as we wish.

1104
01:04:40,680 --> 01:04:43,560
Speaker 2: There. Yeah, and other than that, everything's fine.

1105
01:04:44,000 --> 01:04:46,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's close with this. I want to wrap

1106
01:04:46,200 --> 01:04:48,520
Speaker 1: up on a land the plane here because you know,

1107
01:04:48,600 --> 01:04:50,760
Speaker 1: the real going back to where we started, which is

1108
01:04:50,760 --> 01:04:53,600
Speaker 1: the almen equ American politics. You know what really sucks

1109
01:04:53,640 --> 01:04:55,560
Speaker 1: for all of our friends that actually have to put

1110
01:04:55,600 --> 01:04:58,800
Speaker 1: the book together is if there's massive redistricting in the

1111
01:04:58,840 --> 01:05:01,840
Speaker 1: middle of the decade, have to rewrite all the profiles.

1112
01:05:02,840 --> 01:05:04,160
Speaker 2: I'm just mean, what a nightmare?

1113
01:05:04,360 --> 01:05:07,320
Speaker 1: What do you make? Where is the Where does this end?

1114
01:05:08,000 --> 01:05:10,200
Speaker 1: I mean if we basically go down this road of

1115
01:05:11,160 --> 01:05:15,720
Speaker 1: a redistricting war between the states, right where I'm really uncomfortable.

1116
01:05:15,720 --> 01:05:19,160
Speaker 1: Where one person says, hey, this is you're disenfranchising us

1117
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:21,640
Speaker 1: in State XS. So we're going to disenfranchise voters in

1118
01:05:21,720 --> 01:05:24,040
Speaker 1: state why to get back at you for State X.

1119
01:05:24,640 --> 01:05:26,600
Speaker 1: That doesn't end well well?

1120
01:05:26,760 --> 01:05:30,400
Speaker 2: And when if you don't like the outcome of elections.

1121
01:05:30,440 --> 01:05:34,400
Speaker 2: You change the rules end right, that's what you on

1122
01:05:34,440 --> 01:05:36,600
Speaker 2: both sides do. I mean, to me, unless you've got

1123
01:05:36,600 --> 01:05:39,600
Speaker 2: a court order, there should be no cracking open districts

1124
01:05:39,640 --> 01:05:42,640
Speaker 2: during a decade. And I do think that the Supreme

1125
01:05:42,640 --> 01:05:47,320
Speaker 2: Court decision in the whatever common calls that that was

1126
01:05:48,280 --> 01:05:52,880
Speaker 2: basically we're not going to look at the federal course,

1127
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:58,360
Speaker 2: are not going to look at Jerry Mannering for political purposes.

1128
01:05:58,400 --> 01:06:00,360
Speaker 2: They're not going to you know, to me, that was

1129
01:06:00,400 --> 01:06:04,600
Speaker 2: one of the worst decisions ever. And that's that's a

1130
01:06:04,720 --> 01:06:08,080
Speaker 2: big you know, uh that.

1131
01:06:07,360 --> 01:06:08,920
Speaker 1: That's a big that's a big charge.

1132
01:06:09,240 --> 01:06:10,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm no. I mean, if you're going to say

1133
01:06:10,960 --> 01:06:13,840
Speaker 2: one of the top ten or bottom ten. Yeah, but

1134
01:06:13,840 --> 01:06:16,800
Speaker 2: it is a race, it's a race to the bottom.

1135
01:06:17,320 --> 01:06:20,600
Speaker 2: And I have to kind of modulate my outrage.

1136
01:06:20,960 --> 01:06:23,880
Speaker 1: And uh well, I mean I does feel like, here's

1137
01:06:23,920 --> 01:06:27,720
Speaker 1: my frustration. Nobody seems to be saying, you know what,

1138
01:06:27,760 --> 01:06:30,480
Speaker 1: we shouldn't be doing this in either state, right, Like,

1139
01:06:30,520 --> 01:06:33,439
Speaker 1: where's that set of leaders. I don't mean to sound

1140
01:06:33,520 --> 01:06:36,880
Speaker 1: pollyannish and you know, yelling screaming at the cloud, but

1141
01:06:36,920 --> 01:06:40,240
Speaker 1: I'm stunned that nobody thinks it's good politics to say,

1142
01:06:40,240 --> 01:06:42,720
Speaker 1: you know what, this is bad in Texas and this

1143
01:06:42,800 --> 01:06:44,520
Speaker 1: is bad in California. Hard stop.

1144
01:06:45,400 --> 01:06:47,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, as far as I'm concerned, i wa.

1145
01:06:48,680 --> 01:06:52,240
Speaker 2: I mean, for the lad I would never point to

1146
01:06:52,280 --> 01:06:55,680
Speaker 2: California as a fair district, the original one, you know,

1147
01:06:55,720 --> 01:07:00,680
Speaker 2: the one that's in place right now would. But to me, Iowa, Uh,

1148
01:07:02,240 --> 01:07:06,240
Speaker 2: I think Iowa was about the straight up drawing of now. Granted,

1149
01:07:06,680 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 2: it's a lily white state and all the counties are square.

1150
01:07:10,040 --> 01:07:13,560
Speaker 1: So you know, my my grandfather in Iowan as an engineer,

1151
01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:16,000
Speaker 1: he's proud of those He was proud of those square lines.

1152
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:18,480
Speaker 1: Goddamn it, you know it was it made sense.

1153
01:07:18,960 --> 01:07:21,840
Speaker 2: But there the thing is, I mean my theory is that,

1154
01:07:22,080 --> 01:07:25,280
Speaker 2: you know, the standard used to be compact and contiguous,

1155
01:07:26,040 --> 01:07:30,960
Speaker 2: and then the compact got winned away when well, to

1156
01:07:31,040 --> 01:07:34,400
Speaker 2: create more minority districts, we're going to have to fudge

1157
01:07:34,440 --> 01:07:35,880
Speaker 2: a little on this compact thing.

1158
01:07:36,320 --> 01:07:39,360
Speaker 1: And that was a big moment, wasn't it. The ninety

1159
01:07:39,400 --> 01:07:42,200
Speaker 1: one reapportionment set us on this road.

1160
01:07:43,240 --> 01:07:46,880
Speaker 2: Yeah. When you start creating on compact on one thing,

1161
01:07:47,120 --> 01:07:52,280
Speaker 2: it it it it basically spreads out to other things.

1162
01:07:52,480 --> 01:07:55,280
Speaker 2: And it's also that was the first cycle where you

1163
01:07:55,360 --> 01:07:58,200
Speaker 2: had Republicans working with minority Democrats.

1164
01:07:58,520 --> 01:07:58,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know.

1165
01:07:58,880 --> 01:08:02,760
Speaker 2: It was an interesting I mean there's but it was

1166
01:08:03,120 --> 01:08:07,880
Speaker 2: compact and contiguous work pretty damn well. And when compact

1167
01:08:07,920 --> 01:08:11,480
Speaker 2: went out the door, out the window, that's when we

1168
01:08:11,520 --> 01:08:13,920
Speaker 2: started going down this horrible path, at least on the

1169
01:08:14,040 --> 01:08:15,040
Speaker 2: districting part of it.

1170
01:08:15,880 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the last most important thing

1171
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:22,200
Speaker 1: I like to talk to you about, which is who's

1172
01:08:22,240 --> 01:08:27,040
Speaker 1: got who's in better shape politically? Donald Trump or Brian Kelly,

1173
01:08:27,240 --> 01:08:31,759
Speaker 1: head coach of LSU football. Can he survived Donald Trump

1174
01:08:31,760 --> 01:08:35,639
Speaker 1: has to survive twenty twenty six midterms. Will Brian Kelly

1175
01:08:35,640 --> 01:08:38,120
Speaker 1: be the head coach of LSU football in twenty twenty six?

1176
01:08:39,560 --> 01:08:41,840
Speaker 2: There are so many reasons why I shouldn't address this

1177
01:08:43,360 --> 01:08:47,160
Speaker 2: and won't, But getting into fres On the NAM with

1178
01:08:47,320 --> 01:08:49,439
Speaker 2: Chuck Todd about sports is not something that's good.

1179
01:08:49,520 --> 01:08:53,040
Speaker 1: I'm guessing LSU fans have pretty high bar this year,

1180
01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:55,719
Speaker 1: don't they. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1181
01:08:55,560 --> 01:08:57,800
Speaker 2: I'll admit it. To one game the whole school year

1182
01:08:57,920 --> 01:09:00,640
Speaker 2: when I was down there, it's are you teaching this

1183
01:09:00,680 --> 01:09:04,200
Speaker 2: semester or springs? Now my teaching career is over. But

1184
01:09:04,520 --> 01:09:06,360
Speaker 2: uh Ohsue was very good to me, and they were

1185
01:09:06,600 --> 01:09:08,200
Speaker 2: very very very nice people and stuff.

1186
01:09:08,240 --> 01:09:11,439
Speaker 1: But uh, that's a lot.

1187
01:09:12,080 --> 01:09:14,080
Speaker 2: Teaching is a heck of a lot harder than I

1188
01:09:14,160 --> 01:09:16,559
Speaker 2: ever ever thought it would be dreamed it would.

1189
01:09:16,760 --> 01:09:19,799
Speaker 1: Wasn't it pretty rewarding give you a little bit of hope?

1190
01:09:20,360 --> 01:09:27,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it. I think the pandemic and devices

1191
01:09:27,760 --> 01:09:34,320
Speaker 2: have done a lot to undermine the ability of people

1192
01:09:34,600 --> 01:09:40,439
Speaker 2: below a certain age to do what their older brother, sisters,

1193
01:09:40,439 --> 01:09:42,400
Speaker 2: and you know, parents were able to do. And I

1194
01:09:42,400 --> 01:09:44,640
Speaker 2: think it's a I think it's it's a it's a

1195
01:09:44,680 --> 01:09:47,719
Speaker 2: real challenge, and I think it faces you know, any

1196
01:09:48,240 --> 01:09:51,439
Speaker 2: any just about any state, any state, any university. I

1197
01:09:51,479 --> 01:09:57,000
Speaker 2: think that's a I think the pandemic really did not

1198
01:09:57,080 --> 01:10:03,320
Speaker 2: only a rest, but arrest developed but took some away.

1199
01:10:04,479 --> 01:10:08,599
Speaker 2: And you know, I always thought, you know, I teach class.

1200
01:10:09,160 --> 01:10:11,639
Speaker 2: If I ever called teacher, first of all, the first

1201
01:10:11,680 --> 01:10:14,160
Speaker 2: book would be What it Takes Richard ben Kramer. Now

1202
01:10:15,400 --> 01:10:19,200
Speaker 2: you can no more hand a class one thousand page

1203
01:10:19,240 --> 01:10:21,280
Speaker 2: book than Fly to the Moon.

1204
01:10:22,360 --> 01:10:24,240
Speaker 1: I know you're handing that book and be like good luck.

1205
01:10:24,800 --> 01:10:28,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I only it's dated and stuff. But away anyway,

1206
01:10:29,120 --> 01:10:31,120
Speaker 2: But they were very they were very good to me

1207
01:10:31,520 --> 01:10:36,360
Speaker 2: and my esteem for the profession knows no bounds.

1208
01:10:36,840 --> 01:10:39,880
Speaker 1: Now you are right about that, well, Charlie Cook, it

1209
01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:43,080
Speaker 1: is always a pleasure to hear you. Look the mid

1210
01:10:43,360 --> 01:10:44,760
Speaker 1: do you have? I mean the midterms.

1211
01:10:44,880 --> 01:10:46,800
Speaker 2: That's the first time I think the word midterm has

1212
01:10:46,840 --> 01:10:47,840
Speaker 2: come up, I know.

1213
01:10:47,880 --> 01:10:49,200
Speaker 1: And I was just going to say, because in some

1214
01:10:49,240 --> 01:10:52,640
Speaker 1: way for trying to you know, the midterms are going

1215
01:10:52,680 --> 01:10:54,120
Speaker 1: to be a coin flip, and yet we're going to

1216
01:10:54,640 --> 01:10:57,600
Speaker 1: probably take away way too much from them, aren't we.

1217
01:10:58,680 --> 01:11:04,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I I The thing is that I've started, I've

1218
01:11:04,320 --> 01:11:09,479
Speaker 2: I've moved to using major party vote and you know

1219
01:11:09,640 --> 01:11:16,240
Speaker 2: three Trump averages and the Hillary uh He'llary Joe Biden,

1220
01:11:16,520 --> 01:11:20,639
Speaker 2: Kamala Harrison and then major major vote and then rank order,

1221
01:11:20,960 --> 01:11:24,960
Speaker 2: and when you do red blue, you're just looking to say, well,

1222
01:11:25,120 --> 01:11:30,120
Speaker 2: it's a after after, butsher Steve Basheer is turned out

1223
01:11:30,120 --> 01:11:34,240
Speaker 2: in Kentucky after you after next, and Lauren Kelly, the

1224
01:11:34,240 --> 01:11:37,920
Speaker 2: governor of Kansas, has turned out there, and Glenn Younkin

1225
01:11:38,000 --> 01:11:42,639
Speaker 2: and Virginia's turned out turned out, So basically you're left

1226
01:11:42,760 --> 01:11:47,200
Speaker 2: with Phil Scott and Kelly Ayot will be the only

1227
01:11:47,360 --> 01:11:50,720
Speaker 2: governors of either party they are in the other colors,

1228
01:11:51,120 --> 01:11:55,960
Speaker 2: the other states color for governors, and and Susan Collins

1229
01:11:56,000 --> 01:11:58,600
Speaker 2: the only one, the only one in the Senate. And

1230
01:11:58,640 --> 01:12:02,720
Speaker 2: so it's all the action is in fourteen states. And

1231
01:12:03,200 --> 01:12:05,760
Speaker 2: I know you're trying to cut the but to me,

1232
01:12:06,720 --> 01:12:13,599
Speaker 2: it says a lot that Republicans have won only four

1233
01:12:13,800 --> 01:12:17,920
Speaker 2: of the twenty one Senate races in Purple states since

1234
01:12:18,120 --> 01:12:21,719
Speaker 2: Donald Trump has worn into office. But at the same time,

1235
01:12:22,760 --> 01:12:26,200
Speaker 2: because Democrats have ten out of the fourteen Senate races

1236
01:12:26,520 --> 01:12:31,920
Speaker 2: in Purple states, yeah, making it really hard for them

1237
01:12:32,080 --> 01:12:37,280
Speaker 2: to make up and to get the fifty. And each

1238
01:12:37,360 --> 01:12:38,960
Speaker 2: party is screwed in a different way.

1239
01:12:39,479 --> 01:12:43,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's astonishing that it was that the Democrats were

1240
01:12:43,000 --> 01:12:46,160
Speaker 1: at sixty for a brief period in two thousand and nine.

1241
01:12:46,880 --> 01:12:49,040
Speaker 1: You think, boy, I don't know when they'd ever see

1242
01:12:49,479 --> 01:12:51,479
Speaker 1: I don't know if they've seen sixty at our lifetime,

1243
01:12:51,520 --> 01:12:52,240
Speaker 1: but you never know.

1244
01:12:52,560 --> 01:12:56,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's but I do think that if a party

1245
01:12:59,120 --> 01:13:02,840
Speaker 2: I was having coffee with a group of senators within

1246
01:13:02,880 --> 01:13:04,720
Speaker 2: the last year and someone say, well, do you have

1247
01:13:04,720 --> 01:13:05,759
Speaker 2: any advice, I say.

1248
01:13:05,720 --> 01:13:14,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, you use your use your go at your brains

1249
01:13:14,360 --> 01:13:16,480
Speaker 4: and not your glance when you make decisions.

1250
01:13:19,080 --> 01:13:20,760
Speaker 1: I love you were very careful. You were like, I

1251
01:13:20,760 --> 01:13:23,320
Speaker 1: got to pick my words here just right. Well, also,

1252
01:13:23,360 --> 01:13:24,599
Speaker 1: I was kind of reaching for it.

1253
01:13:24,640 --> 01:13:28,160
Speaker 2: But I'm trying to remember the term I used because

1254
01:13:28,160 --> 01:13:31,040
Speaker 2: I know what I would use on a on a Yeah,

1255
01:13:31,680 --> 01:13:34,880
Speaker 2: if you weren't being recorded, Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly.

1256
01:13:35,120 --> 01:13:37,599
Speaker 1: Well, Well we'll let the audience, that's the beauty. We'll

1257
01:13:37,680 --> 01:13:40,200
Speaker 1: let them. We'll let them imagine the word you were help.

1258
01:13:40,479 --> 01:13:41,879
Speaker 2: This has been a whole lot of fun.

1259
01:13:41,720 --> 01:13:44,000
Speaker 1: Chalk all right, but I missed this the almainic of

1260
01:13:44,000 --> 01:13:46,040
Speaker 1: American politics. Go grab it.

1261
01:13:46,320 --> 01:13:49,599
Speaker 2: Then in two weeks coming out, brother, see you chuck,

1262
01:13:49,640 --> 01:13:50,200
Speaker 2: thank you.

1263
01:14:00,479 --> 01:14:03,200
Speaker 1: Well, there you go. How about that Charlie Cook wondering

1264
01:14:03,200 --> 01:14:06,280
Speaker 1: why do we even bother having a US Senate? Right,

1265
01:14:06,439 --> 01:14:10,800
Speaker 1: and this goes You know, I thought the I thought

1266
01:14:10,800 --> 01:14:13,080
Speaker 1: the most important thing that he was talking about was

1267
01:14:13,160 --> 01:14:16,400
Speaker 1: it's he sort of puts some better meat on the bone.

1268
01:14:16,400 --> 01:14:18,200
Speaker 1: You know, we hear this, people say, oh, they don't

1269
01:14:18,200 --> 01:14:21,599
Speaker 1: teach civics, But what do we mean when we say that?

1270
01:14:21,760 --> 01:14:25,000
Speaker 1: And I thought Charlie Cook articulated better than I've heard

1271
01:14:25,040 --> 01:14:30,720
Speaker 1: it articulated in other places, trying to explain, like why

1272
01:14:30,800 --> 01:14:33,160
Speaker 1: we developed this three branches of government? What were the

1273
01:14:33,160 --> 01:14:38,320
Speaker 1: founders thinking? What was it about, like the specific rationales

1274
01:14:38,479 --> 01:14:42,240
Speaker 1: behind the decisions that were made. The more people understand

1275
01:14:42,320 --> 01:14:45,760
Speaker 1: the rationales, the more I think we would have a

1276
01:14:45,840 --> 01:14:53,960
Speaker 1: better conversation with the American people today. It is like understanding,

1277
01:14:53,960 --> 01:14:57,559
Speaker 1: you know, why is fifty votes terrible for judges but

1278
01:14:57,640 --> 01:15:00,320
Speaker 1: sixty votes is better? Well, let me introduce shoot to

1279
01:15:00,360 --> 01:15:04,479
Speaker 1: what Alexander Hamilton wrote in Federalist seventy eight when it

1280
01:15:04,560 --> 01:15:08,080
Speaker 1: comes to what do we want out of a judge

1281
01:15:08,120 --> 01:15:12,200
Speaker 1: and the judiciary branch? He said, we wanted umpires, Okay,

1282
01:15:12,240 --> 01:15:16,760
Speaker 1: we wanted we wanted people above politics, not as partisan actors.

1283
01:15:17,280 --> 01:15:20,080
Speaker 1: And yet the United States Senate, which was developed to

1284
01:15:20,120 --> 01:15:24,040
Speaker 1: be a cooling saucer, which was developed literally to slow

1285
01:15:24,160 --> 01:15:28,960
Speaker 1: things down to sort of you know, is anything simply

1286
01:15:29,000 --> 01:15:31,160
Speaker 1: saying I forget it, we'll just behave like the House.

1287
01:15:31,920 --> 01:15:36,520
Speaker 1: It's as almost if the Senators themselves failed to understand

1288
01:15:37,479 --> 01:15:40,920
Speaker 1: what the founders rationale was for setting it up the

1289
01:15:40,960 --> 01:15:43,240
Speaker 1: way they set it up, and the Senate is no

1290
01:15:43,320 --> 01:15:47,559
Speaker 1: longer functioning as the founders intended, just like I argue,

1291
01:15:47,560 --> 01:15:50,880
Speaker 1: the House of Representatives does not represent the country in

1292
01:15:51,240 --> 01:15:54,360
Speaker 1: what the founders intended, and to me, this is the

1293
01:15:54,600 --> 01:15:57,000
Speaker 1: this is the opening, right. I sort of ranted the

1294
01:15:57,040 --> 01:16:00,000
Speaker 1: other day in an appearance on CNN that my biggest

1295
01:16:00,040 --> 01:16:02,880
Speaker 1: frustration with the redistricting conversation right now is no one

1296
01:16:02,880 --> 01:16:06,040
Speaker 1: seems to be standing up for fairness for everybody. Right.

1297
01:16:06,200 --> 01:16:08,479
Speaker 1: Who's the elected official that has stood up and said

1298
01:16:09,240 --> 01:16:12,120
Speaker 1: shame on you Greg Abbott and Donald Trump in Texas,

1299
01:16:12,120 --> 01:16:14,120
Speaker 1: and shame on you Gavin Newsom for what you're doing

1300
01:16:14,160 --> 01:16:18,560
Speaker 1: in California. No one's doing that. There's not one. And

1301
01:16:18,920 --> 01:16:22,679
Speaker 1: what's what's really troublesome. I think it. You know, look,

1302
01:16:22,720 --> 01:16:25,120
Speaker 1: we know sort of how politics works and how political

1303
01:16:25,160 --> 01:16:28,439
Speaker 1: vacuums work. If there was a vacuum to fill and

1304
01:16:28,520 --> 01:16:31,080
Speaker 1: people would notice, I think somebody would try to fill it.

1305
01:16:32,080 --> 01:16:36,280
Speaker 1: The sad thing is, and you know that it nobody,

1306
01:16:37,040 --> 01:16:40,839
Speaker 1: nobody of standing who is interested in being a leader

1307
01:16:40,920 --> 01:16:43,040
Speaker 1: in the United States apparently thinks this is a good

1308
01:16:43,040 --> 01:16:48,320
Speaker 1: issue to stick their neck out. You know, that's disappointing.

1309
01:16:49,680 --> 01:16:52,320
Speaker 1: Maybe we will find somebody that knows how to both

1310
01:16:53,040 --> 01:16:56,639
Speaker 1: give a good civics lesson and inspire people to to

1311
01:16:56,840 --> 01:17:00,559
Speaker 1: sort of rethink their role in the democracy, you know,

1312
01:17:00,720 --> 01:17:04,599
Speaker 1: understanding what citizenship. There's a little bit of effort that's

1313
01:17:04,640 --> 01:17:08,639
Speaker 1: required in citizenship. You know, the minimum we're all asking

1314
01:17:08,680 --> 01:17:13,479
Speaker 1: for is to just understand what the various roles of

1315
01:17:13,560 --> 01:17:17,160
Speaker 1: various aspects of government are. So it, I know, it

1316
01:17:17,160 --> 01:17:19,439
Speaker 1: sounds like two old men screaming at a cloud. You know,

1317
01:17:19,600 --> 01:17:22,479
Speaker 1: you kids today. It's not kids today, it's everybody today.

1318
01:17:23,760 --> 01:17:25,920
Speaker 1: You know, I go back to something that I think

1319
01:17:26,040 --> 01:17:27,960
Speaker 1: is a fair critique. I think we do a terrible

1320
01:17:28,040 --> 01:17:32,599
Speaker 1: job educating people, even in the reporting on this stuff.

1321
01:17:33,240 --> 01:17:35,759
Speaker 1: You know, when I think you've heard me say this before,

1322
01:17:35,800 --> 01:17:37,640
Speaker 1: but you know, I don't want to hear you know,

1323
01:17:37,680 --> 01:17:40,040
Speaker 1: anytime someone says a good believe nobody knows that there

1324
01:17:40,040 --> 01:17:42,040
Speaker 1: are nine people in the Supreme Court. But I've told

1325
01:17:42,040 --> 01:17:44,400
Speaker 1: you I feel like we do a better job educating people.

1326
01:17:44,439 --> 01:17:47,120
Speaker 1: How many teams make the college football playoff? You know,

1327
01:17:47,200 --> 01:17:49,280
Speaker 1: they repeat it over and over again because they're trying

1328
01:17:49,280 --> 01:17:51,559
Speaker 1: to educate the fans to make sure they understand how

1329
01:17:51,560 --> 01:17:55,439
Speaker 1: the playoff works. Right. We don't do that enough. In

1330
01:17:55,479 --> 01:17:58,760
Speaker 1: political reporting. We should constantly remind people it's four hundred

1331
01:17:58,760 --> 01:18:01,120
Speaker 1: and thirty five House members and actually, you know that

1332
01:18:01,240 --> 01:18:03,640
Speaker 1: isn't what it was supposed to intended to be. It

1333
01:18:03,680 --> 01:18:06,679
Speaker 1: was intended to grow with the population of the country,

1334
01:18:06,680 --> 01:18:09,439
Speaker 1: but we haven't grown the House of Representatives now in

1335
01:18:09,600 --> 01:18:14,120
Speaker 1: over one hundred years. And you know, it is actually

1336
01:18:14,200 --> 01:18:17,559
Speaker 1: warping our politics. We are we are becoming less and

1337
01:18:17,640 --> 01:18:22,360
Speaker 1: less a representative democracy simply by by Skew if you will,

1338
01:18:23,200 --> 01:18:28,599
Speaker 1: so anyway, I do. I really appreciated how it's it's

1339
01:18:28,640 --> 01:18:32,160
Speaker 1: weird we have a civics deficit, as Charlie pointed out,

1340
01:18:32,560 --> 01:18:37,240
Speaker 1: But what is it specifically right, it's explaining the rationales

1341
01:18:37,280 --> 01:18:40,600
Speaker 1: at the time and connecting it today. And you know,

1342
01:18:40,720 --> 01:18:44,320
Speaker 1: maybe maybe that's a good idea for a podcast series.

1343
01:18:44,360 --> 01:18:49,080
Speaker 1: Maybe we just start one sort of you know, do

1344
01:18:49,160 --> 01:18:52,680
Speaker 1: a reading of the Federalist papers as a as a

1345
01:18:52,720 --> 01:18:57,240
Speaker 1: podcast account, but do it in the modern era and

1346
01:18:57,280 --> 01:19:00,599
Speaker 1: sort of explain it was meant for King George then

1347
01:19:00,720 --> 01:19:06,360
Speaker 1: what do they mean today? Type of mindset. You know,

1348
01:19:06,600 --> 01:19:10,200
Speaker 1: that's the beauty of being an independent media. Hey, maybe

1349
01:19:10,200 --> 01:19:12,759
Speaker 1: we ought to try that, but I am all ears

1350
01:19:13,320 --> 01:19:19,040
Speaker 1: figuring out different ways to come up with with smarter

1351
01:19:19,240 --> 01:19:23,040
Speaker 1: and more clever ways to continue to educate people. And

1352
01:19:23,840 --> 01:19:25,920
Speaker 1: because I have to tell you, you know, the more

1353
01:19:26,560 --> 01:19:29,960
Speaker 1: you get yourself you go back and reread the Federalist papers.

1354
01:19:29,960 --> 01:19:34,519
Speaker 1: You realize founders made plenty of mistakes, But boy did

1355
01:19:34,560 --> 01:19:38,240
Speaker 1: they anticipate a lot of the problems and gave us

1356
01:19:38,240 --> 01:19:40,439
Speaker 1: some tools to deal with them. We just have chosen

1357
01:19:40,479 --> 01:19:42,760
Speaker 1: not to use the tools. All right, let's do a

1358
01:19:42,760 --> 01:19:49,120
Speaker 1: little last chuck, ask chuck. I'm really fired up. I

1359
01:19:49,200 --> 01:19:53,040
Speaker 1: really like the expanded overseas questions we're getting. This one

1360
01:19:53,120 --> 01:19:55,559
Speaker 1: comes from another one. I think this is our second

1361
01:19:55,600 --> 01:19:59,479
Speaker 1: one from the Netherlands. I hope we can get a

1362
01:19:59,560 --> 01:20:02,320
Speaker 1: Dutch question at some point, maybe Holland. Somebody from Holland

1363
01:20:02,360 --> 01:20:04,519
Speaker 1: will send one. See if any of you get that joke.

1364
01:20:05,400 --> 01:20:08,799
Speaker 1: But let's see here. This is Randall V from Leiden,

1365
01:20:08,960 --> 01:20:11,840
Speaker 1: the Netherlands, and he writes with the recent developments between

1366
01:20:11,880 --> 01:20:14,280
Speaker 1: President Trump and Vladimir Putin another meeting with no real

1367
01:20:14,280 --> 01:20:17,640
Speaker 1: results but clear advantages for Putin. I left deeply frustrated.

1368
01:20:17,640 --> 01:20:20,880
Speaker 1: How is it possible that wealthy democracies like the US

1369
01:20:20,880 --> 01:20:22,679
Speaker 1: and EU keep allowing him to get what he wants

1370
01:20:22,720 --> 01:20:25,639
Speaker 1: time and again was so little pushback? As someone from Leiden,

1371
01:20:25,720 --> 01:20:28,559
Speaker 1: the city the Pilgrims once left in search of liberty,

1372
01:20:28,880 --> 01:20:31,320
Speaker 1: I feel a deep historical connection to the United States,

1373
01:20:31,560 --> 01:20:33,880
Speaker 1: But it's hard to reconcile that legacy with today's seeming

1374
01:20:34,280 --> 01:20:38,680
Speaker 1: powerlessness in the face of authoritarianism authoritarian aggression. Have we

1375
01:20:38,720 --> 01:20:40,840
Speaker 1: reached the limits of democracy or are we simply two

1376
01:20:40,840 --> 01:20:46,400
Speaker 1: divided and distracted to act? More regards Randall, you know,

1377
01:20:46,439 --> 01:20:48,759
Speaker 1: I've thought about this question in a few ways because

1378
01:20:48,880 --> 01:20:53,160
Speaker 1: it actually applies to and I know you're going to

1379
01:20:53,200 --> 01:20:55,040
Speaker 1: find this at first odd, but it sort of applies

1380
01:20:55,080 --> 01:20:59,160
Speaker 1: to why why folks aren't taking this Measles outbreak more seriously?

1381
01:20:59,200 --> 01:21:01,920
Speaker 1: For instance? And you know, I'm glad to see that

1382
01:21:01,960 --> 01:21:04,719
Speaker 1: the Texans feel like they're finally getting this under control.

1383
01:21:06,880 --> 01:21:09,120
Speaker 1: You know, there's a point where, you know, the whole

1384
01:21:09,120 --> 01:21:11,559
Speaker 1: point of history is where you know, if you don't

1385
01:21:11,640 --> 01:21:13,400
Speaker 1: learn it, you're deemed to repeat it. But it turns

1386
01:21:13,439 --> 01:21:17,679
Speaker 1: out we forget it in civilizations time and time again.

1387
01:21:18,240 --> 01:21:22,200
Speaker 1: And it feels like about, you know, once once something

1388
01:21:22,280 --> 01:21:25,600
Speaker 1: fades into third or fourth generation, it's almost like we

1389
01:21:25,640 --> 01:21:27,760
Speaker 1: have to repeat it because I can tell you with

1390
01:21:27,840 --> 01:21:31,240
Speaker 1: what we're going through. One of the reasons, and you've

1391
01:21:31,240 --> 01:21:34,519
Speaker 1: heard me say this why I'm long term optimistic but

1392
01:21:34,600 --> 01:21:37,280
Speaker 1: short term pessimistic about sort of where this democracy is

1393
01:21:37,280 --> 01:21:43,599
Speaker 1: going is that we've done this, we do this, We've

1394
01:21:43,640 --> 01:21:46,000
Speaker 1: done it a few times where we have veered into

1395
01:21:46,040 --> 01:21:50,280
Speaker 1: some undemocratic you know, lanes here, and then all of

1396
01:21:50,320 --> 01:21:54,040
Speaker 1: a sudden we correct ourselves. It's like it's like we're

1397
01:21:54,040 --> 01:21:56,880
Speaker 1: about to swerve off the road and we somehow just

1398
01:21:57,000 --> 01:22:00,840
Speaker 1: before we go into the ditch, we get back on

1399
01:22:01,120 --> 01:22:04,640
Speaker 1: the straight and narrow. So there's a part of me

1400
01:22:04,720 --> 01:22:08,439
Speaker 1: that wonders if it's if just Hitler's too far away.

1401
01:22:08,720 --> 01:22:13,960
Speaker 1: What happened in Europe is too far away. You know,

1402
01:22:14,120 --> 01:22:20,360
Speaker 1: my grandfather who fought has been dead for forty five years, right,

1403
01:22:21,280 --> 01:22:25,280
Speaker 1: So here was a first person account that I'm no

1404
01:22:25,360 --> 01:22:28,439
Speaker 1: longer getting right, which means my kids are getting second hand,

1405
01:22:28,479 --> 01:22:31,559
Speaker 1: third hand. So maybe it's that I'm not you know,

1406
01:22:31,760 --> 01:22:34,960
Speaker 1: I'm just throwing that idea out there that sometimes we

1407
01:22:35,040 --> 01:22:38,240
Speaker 1: have to. You know, there's an expression in this country

1408
01:22:38,280 --> 01:22:42,200
Speaker 1: this second you know, there's no new intelligence has learned

1409
01:22:42,240 --> 01:22:44,240
Speaker 1: from a second kick into the head from a mule,

1410
01:22:44,320 --> 01:22:46,880
Speaker 1: meaning you know, once you've learned the way mules kick,

1411
01:22:46,920 --> 01:22:48,599
Speaker 1: you're going to sort of stay out of their way.

1412
01:22:49,560 --> 01:22:51,799
Speaker 1: I don't know about that. Sometimes I think our country

1413
01:22:52,120 --> 01:22:54,120
Speaker 1: needs a kick in the head about every eighty years

1414
01:22:55,200 --> 01:22:58,800
Speaker 1: where we will go through an existential crisis or two.

1415
01:22:59,360 --> 01:23:01,439
Speaker 1: You know, where we were in the eighteen fifties and

1416
01:23:01,479 --> 01:23:05,040
Speaker 1: where we were in the in the nineteen thirties, and

1417
01:23:05,120 --> 01:23:08,439
Speaker 1: that was more global than just here and then here

1418
01:23:08,439 --> 01:23:12,200
Speaker 1: we are again arguably right, you know, now we're just

1419
01:23:12,280 --> 01:23:14,280
Speaker 1: under one hundred years later, about eighty you know, somewhere

1420
01:23:14,280 --> 01:23:19,680
Speaker 1: between eighty and ninety years later. So there's it may

1421
01:23:19,760 --> 01:23:25,000
Speaker 1: simply be that that as John McCain, John McCain used

1422
01:23:25,000 --> 01:23:26,960
Speaker 1: to joke, it's always darker, you know, he used to

1423
01:23:27,000 --> 01:23:30,519
Speaker 1: quote mouse saying it's always darkest before it turns really black.

1424
01:23:31,760 --> 01:23:37,320
Speaker 1: But I do think that that that some of this

1425
01:23:37,439 --> 01:23:41,400
Speaker 1: is just is some sort of it's not a it's

1426
01:23:41,439 --> 01:23:44,760
Speaker 1: not that we forget what happened. We just can't imagine

1427
01:23:45,280 --> 01:23:47,760
Speaker 1: that our modern society we would allow the same things

1428
01:23:48,200 --> 01:23:51,120
Speaker 1: to happen that happened in the thirties. And yet now

1429
01:23:51,160 --> 01:23:54,400
Speaker 1: we're all finding out, oh, this is how Germany might

1430
01:23:54,439 --> 01:24:00,760
Speaker 1: have happened. Right, So I look, I'm surprised you're not

1431
01:24:00,840 --> 01:24:04,639
Speaker 1: more optimistic about Europe's response. I've been impressed with how

1432
01:24:04,760 --> 01:24:09,240
Speaker 1: united Europe is stuck with Ukraine, and in some ways

1433
01:24:09,320 --> 01:24:13,719
Speaker 1: I think it's it may be in the long term

1434
01:24:13,880 --> 01:24:17,440
Speaker 1: better for the EU, better for the continent as a whole.

1435
01:24:18,080 --> 01:24:24,960
Speaker 5: That that there was the possibility that the United States

1436
01:24:25,000 --> 01:24:28,040
Speaker 5: wouldn't be the chief ally anymore for one reason or

1437
01:24:28,080 --> 01:24:28,400
Speaker 5: the other.

1438
01:24:29,080 --> 01:24:33,000
Speaker 1: I'd like to think that will still never happen. But

1439
01:24:33,200 --> 01:24:38,080
Speaker 1: the fact that, you know, you see everybody in Europe

1440
01:24:38,080 --> 01:24:43,240
Speaker 1: pivoting to collective security, I think that's it sort of

1441
01:24:43,320 --> 01:24:48,320
Speaker 1: it gives me some hope that hey, there are you know.

1442
01:24:50,320 --> 01:24:50,400
Speaker 2: It.

1443
01:24:50,640 --> 01:24:53,000
Speaker 1: Obviously, the closer the war is to you, the more

1444
01:24:53,040 --> 01:24:57,240
Speaker 1: serious you take the threat. This war's on the other

1445
01:24:57,240 --> 01:24:59,400
Speaker 1: side of an ocean for us, and then on the

1446
01:24:59,400 --> 01:25:02,600
Speaker 1: other side of a continent there, right, it is not

1447
01:25:02,760 --> 01:25:07,479
Speaker 1: for you. So perhaps we should take the fact that

1448
01:25:07,520 --> 01:25:12,280
Speaker 1: Europeans seem to be a bit more united have been. Look,

1449
01:25:12,320 --> 01:25:17,479
Speaker 1: I was extraordinarily impressed with how Europe's responded to Trump

1450
01:25:17,560 --> 01:25:24,680
Speaker 1: two point zero, and I think that maybe that's you

1451
01:25:24,760 --> 01:25:27,680
Speaker 1: might feel a bit more optimistic if you focus on

1452
01:25:29,000 --> 01:25:32,599
Speaker 1: how's europe respondent. I mean, look, trust me, I don't

1453
01:25:32,680 --> 01:25:34,599
Speaker 1: like that the United States is not interested in being

1454
01:25:34,680 --> 01:25:38,439
Speaker 1: leader of the free world. I did not know we'd

1455
01:25:38,479 --> 01:25:41,479
Speaker 1: ever have an American president that didn't want to be

1456
01:25:41,560 --> 01:25:44,160
Speaker 1: leader of the free world. That didn't want to be

1457
01:25:44,240 --> 01:25:47,080
Speaker 1: the chief promoter of liberty and democracy around the world.

1458
01:25:48,880 --> 01:25:54,240
Speaker 1: That's a big change for a lot of us. Many

1459
01:25:54,280 --> 01:25:57,559
Speaker 1: of us hope it's temporary, all right. Next question comes

1460
01:25:57,600 --> 01:25:59,960
Speaker 1: from Nate, a longtime listener viewer and understand your paston

1461
01:26:00,080 --> 01:26:02,439
Speaker 1: for baseball. I'm a gen xer like you and a

1462
01:26:02,479 --> 01:26:06,559
Speaker 1: lifelong Brewer fan. Fun little trivia question out there for

1463
01:26:06,680 --> 01:26:12,640
Speaker 1: you folks. Can you name the original home of the

1464
01:26:12,680 --> 01:26:16,360
Speaker 1: Milwaukee Brewers. Of course, it's not like I'm going to

1465
01:26:16,400 --> 01:26:19,640
Speaker 1: be having like seventh caller gets a prize, but I

1466
01:26:19,640 --> 01:26:22,360
Speaker 1: always love having to teach my son that they were

1467
01:26:22,360 --> 01:26:26,519
Speaker 1: originally the Seattle Pilots. Anyway, lifelong Brewer fan, so I

1468
01:26:26,920 --> 01:26:29,120
Speaker 1: am curious, Nate, let us know, were you ever a

1469
01:26:29,120 --> 01:26:33,200
Speaker 1: Seattle Pilot fan? And do you collect Seattle Pilots paraphernalia

1470
01:26:33,439 --> 01:26:38,040
Speaker 1: as sort of an homage to the Brewers? Okay, any rights,

1471
01:26:38,080 --> 01:26:40,519
Speaker 1: I may be living in an alternative universe because it

1472
01:26:40,520 --> 01:26:42,200
Speaker 1: seems my Brewers are not only the best team in

1473
01:26:42,240 --> 01:26:44,679
Speaker 1: the majors currently but also reportedly have the top farm

1474
01:26:44,720 --> 01:26:46,880
Speaker 1: system as well. I'm not sure how it all happened,

1475
01:26:47,160 --> 01:26:49,920
Speaker 1: but does this give some hope for baseball competitiveness long term,

1476
01:26:49,960 --> 01:26:51,760
Speaker 1: or is this just a blip and we'll be back

1477
01:26:51,800 --> 01:26:54,160
Speaker 1: to the Dodgers and Yankees' usual domination by the end

1478
01:26:54,200 --> 01:26:56,519
Speaker 1: of the year. What can other organizations like your Nats

1479
01:26:56,600 --> 01:26:59,479
Speaker 1: learn from them that can be replicated to maintain some

1480
01:26:59,479 --> 01:27:03,960
Speaker 1: assembling of competition. Keep up the excellent work. Look, I mean,

1481
01:27:04,600 --> 01:27:07,640
Speaker 1: the fact of the matter is the baseball playoffs are

1482
01:27:07,640 --> 01:27:11,000
Speaker 1: the great equalizer, right. The one thing that baseball has

1483
01:27:11,080 --> 01:27:14,559
Speaker 1: to equalize things is the five game series. Right, You

1484
01:27:14,640 --> 01:27:17,120
Speaker 1: get two hot pitchers in a five game series, and

1485
01:27:17,160 --> 01:27:19,000
Speaker 1: you can beat the best team in baseball. You know,

1486
01:27:19,240 --> 01:27:23,640
Speaker 1: I've I've you know, I remember. I remember when the

1487
01:27:23,720 --> 01:27:26,080
Speaker 1: Nats were going to be the wild card and I

1488
01:27:26,160 --> 01:27:28,760
Speaker 1: was telling them, Son, I'm like, no, no, no, no, we

1489
01:27:28,800 --> 01:27:30,320
Speaker 1: want we want it this way. We don't want to

1490
01:27:30,320 --> 01:27:34,080
Speaker 1: win the division. We win the division, we won't get

1491
01:27:34,080 --> 01:27:36,240
Speaker 1: to face if we face the Dodgers, it's in a

1492
01:27:36,280 --> 01:27:38,080
Speaker 1: seven game. If we do it the wildcard, we get

1493
01:27:38,120 --> 01:27:40,880
Speaker 1: the Dodgers in the five game, and sure enough, we

1494
01:27:40,920 --> 01:27:42,200
Speaker 1: got them in the five game and we can meet

1495
01:27:42,280 --> 01:27:46,320
Speaker 1: them in a five game. So I do think the playoffs, right,

1496
01:27:46,680 --> 01:27:51,800
Speaker 1: like the playoffs in the NBA are are not an equalizer,

1497
01:27:51,880 --> 01:27:54,880
Speaker 1: right it almost you know, you have to be deep,

1498
01:27:55,000 --> 01:27:58,160
Speaker 1: you have to be you know, there isn't you know,

1499
01:27:58,200 --> 01:28:00,840
Speaker 1: there was a brief period where the NBA. There was

1500
01:28:00,960 --> 01:28:03,720
Speaker 1: one year the Lakers got eliminated in the first round

1501
01:28:03,760 --> 01:28:06,080
Speaker 1: and a best two out of three, right like, so

1502
01:28:06,120 --> 01:28:08,799
Speaker 1: they tinkered early and then they went all seven games.

1503
01:28:09,200 --> 01:28:11,080
Speaker 1: I would love to see the NBA go to a

1504
01:28:11,120 --> 01:28:18,639
Speaker 1: first round five game because it would it would create upsets, right,

1505
01:28:18,840 --> 01:28:21,760
Speaker 1: you know, a five game, you cannot an eight seed

1506
01:28:21,800 --> 01:28:24,280
Speaker 1: will be to one seed more often than in a

1507
01:28:24,280 --> 01:28:26,160
Speaker 1: seven game. Is an eight seed going to be to

1508
01:28:26,240 --> 01:28:30,120
Speaker 1: one seed? I think it's ups the entertainment value, but

1509
01:28:30,160 --> 01:28:32,080
Speaker 1: it may not be what the league wants, right that.

1510
01:28:32,200 --> 01:28:34,040
Speaker 1: You know, if the best players hurt for a game,

1511
01:28:34,080 --> 01:28:36,000
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you're down two to oh and

1512
01:28:36,000 --> 01:28:37,840
Speaker 1: then it's one more game and it's over. Right, So

1513
01:28:38,560 --> 01:28:43,599
Speaker 1: I understand why the league went to just full seven

1514
01:28:43,640 --> 01:28:47,720
Speaker 1: slates across the board because it does almost always guarantee

1515
01:28:48,240 --> 01:28:51,000
Speaker 1: you're going to get, you know, two of the five

1516
01:28:51,040 --> 01:28:53,000
Speaker 1: best teams. I mean, I get the best two teams,

1517
01:28:53,000 --> 01:28:54,360
Speaker 1: but you're going to get two of the five five

1518
01:28:54,439 --> 01:28:58,240
Speaker 1: or six best teams, So baseball does already have a

1519
01:28:58,280 --> 01:29:03,200
Speaker 1: great equalizer in its play. Else I'd like to know

1520
01:29:03,200 --> 01:29:05,320
Speaker 1: how the Brewers do it. You know, did the Ceiling

1521
01:29:05,560 --> 01:29:08,400
Speaker 1: you know, did the Ceilings family just sort of figured

1522
01:29:08,800 --> 01:29:12,120
Speaker 1: like leave did he like learn some secret code as

1523
01:29:12,160 --> 01:29:14,559
Speaker 1: commissioner of baseball and left it when they sold the

1524
01:29:14,600 --> 01:29:20,200
Speaker 1: team to the next I have kid, but it seems

1525
01:29:20,200 --> 01:29:22,000
Speaker 1: that there are ways to do this. And you watch

1526
01:29:22,000 --> 01:29:24,519
Speaker 1: how the you know, they're just they're just very careful

1527
01:29:24,520 --> 01:29:26,960
Speaker 1: about their money. You decide is this worth an eight

1528
01:29:27,040 --> 01:29:30,320
Speaker 1: game an eight year contract or not? Try this? Try that,

1529
01:29:30,360 --> 01:29:35,960
Speaker 1: you know, you've got to It's almost like being making

1530
01:29:36,000 --> 01:29:38,200
Speaker 1: money as a poker player. You're going to have to

1531
01:29:38,240 --> 01:29:41,519
Speaker 1: have a high tolerance for risk. It was a risk

1532
01:29:41,560 --> 01:29:44,360
Speaker 1: to let Corbyn Burns go right not pay the money,

1533
01:29:44,360 --> 01:29:46,760
Speaker 1: but they decided not to do that. They knew what

1534
01:29:46,760 --> 01:29:49,040
Speaker 1: they had in their farm system. So if you manage

1535
01:29:49,040 --> 01:29:52,040
Speaker 1: it right right, you can always sort of have something

1536
01:29:52,160 --> 01:29:54,280
Speaker 1: coming up in the farm system just as you're trading

1537
01:29:54,280 --> 01:29:56,880
Speaker 1: off somebody you can't afford to sign. I say, the

1538
01:29:56,880 --> 01:29:59,960
Speaker 1: Braves are sort of run very similarly, so you're absolutely right.

1539
01:30:00,080 --> 01:30:02,760
Speaker 1: The Rays or the arguably the model franchise for this.

1540
01:30:05,080 --> 01:30:07,439
Speaker 1: But that's what's so disappointing is that that there's plenty

1541
01:30:07,439 --> 01:30:10,200
Speaker 1: of role models out there for the Nats to emulate,

1542
01:30:10,320 --> 01:30:14,679
Speaker 1: and they're just choosing not to emulate it. You know, Look,

1543
01:30:14,760 --> 01:30:19,240
Speaker 1: I understand that the finances, I mean, I'm in more

1544
01:30:19,280 --> 01:30:21,519
Speaker 1: of of what the you guys have pulled off, because

1545
01:30:21,560 --> 01:30:24,320
Speaker 1: you also have that horrible TV contract with I think

1546
01:30:24,360 --> 01:30:26,800
Speaker 1: you're one of those poor Diamond Sports teams, which is

1547
01:30:26,920 --> 01:30:29,360
Speaker 1: just you know, unclear whether the revenue is going to

1548
01:30:29,400 --> 01:30:32,680
Speaker 1: be there. So, you know, Baseball's challenges. They're just going

1549
01:30:32,760 --> 01:30:34,280
Speaker 1: to have to figure out how to share some revenue,

1550
01:30:34,520 --> 01:30:39,479
Speaker 1: right are you know, are the bigger market teams committed

1551
01:30:39,560 --> 01:30:43,720
Speaker 1: to supporting a full league of thirty teams and in

1552
01:30:43,800 --> 01:30:45,120
Speaker 1: order to do that, you're gonna have to have more

1553
01:30:45,160 --> 01:30:48,720
Speaker 1: revenue sharing, you know. And I could argue that, you know,

1554
01:30:48,840 --> 01:30:51,680
Speaker 1: the Dodgers aren't nearly as valuable without twenty nine other

1555
01:30:51,720 --> 01:30:54,960
Speaker 1: clubs coming to play them, right, rather than just eighteen

1556
01:30:55,000 --> 01:30:59,720
Speaker 1: other clubs or sixteen other clubs. You know, So if

1557
01:30:59,720 --> 01:31:02,800
Speaker 1: you don't do that, you're facing you're facing then you

1558
01:31:02,840 --> 01:31:06,080
Speaker 1: should contract so that you at least it's all competitive.

1559
01:31:07,080 --> 01:31:10,720
Speaker 1: But that's that's no way to grow sport. So I

1560
01:31:10,720 --> 01:31:14,040
Speaker 1: guess I'm hopeful that they can figure out some revenue sharing,

1561
01:31:14,600 --> 01:31:19,679
Speaker 1: some sort of you know, I think you can create

1562
01:31:19,800 --> 01:31:22,400
Speaker 1: market you know, sort of the NBA showed with the

1563
01:31:22,439 --> 01:31:26,559
Speaker 1: second Apron business that you can sort of incentivize ways

1564
01:31:26,640 --> 01:31:30,320
Speaker 1: to limit how much money is spent and then also

1565
01:31:30,439 --> 01:31:32,800
Speaker 1: raise the floor of minimum salaries to sort of force

1566
01:31:32,840 --> 01:31:38,640
Speaker 1: some better salary competitiveness. But so I want to be

1567
01:31:38,720 --> 01:31:44,799
Speaker 1: somewhat optimistic, but it is worth noting that quite let's

1568
01:31:44,840 --> 01:31:49,880
Speaker 1: just say, word has it many a baseball franchise is

1569
01:31:50,080 --> 01:31:53,559
Speaker 1: pitching season tickleholders to renew by saying there may not

1570
01:31:53,640 --> 01:31:56,759
Speaker 1: be baseball in twenty seven, And that's a real bummer

1571
01:31:56,800 --> 01:32:02,840
Speaker 1: to mean. All right. Next one comes from Matt and

1572
01:32:02,880 --> 01:32:04,960
Speaker 1: he writes first and joining the pod Monsie and meet

1573
01:32:04,960 --> 01:32:07,320
Speaker 1: the press, but enjoying your new endeavor. In your podcast

1574
01:32:07,320 --> 01:32:10,120
Speaker 1: with Colin Cowhart, you mentioned the shift from the Republican Party,

1575
01:32:10,120 --> 01:32:13,360
Speaker 1: moving from Reagan Republicanism to the MAGA Party. Second, my question,

1576
01:32:13,439 --> 01:32:16,040
Speaker 1: as a former Pennsylvanian now Floridian for the last twenty

1577
01:32:16,080 --> 01:32:18,240
Speaker 1: five years, what would have happened to Florida politics if

1578
01:32:18,280 --> 01:32:20,800
Speaker 1: Alex Sink had defeated Rick Scott in twenty ten. It's

1579
01:32:20,800 --> 01:32:22,880
Speaker 1: not as if that was a huge majority. And the

1580
01:32:22,920 --> 01:32:26,439
Speaker 1: same was true in twenty fourteen against Charlie crist Thanks Matt,

1581
01:32:26,479 --> 01:32:29,760
Speaker 1: and he says, go Phillies like a typical Florida transplant, right,

1582
01:32:29,800 --> 01:32:32,800
Speaker 1: they bring their fandom from another state, and that's why

1583
01:32:32,800 --> 01:32:38,320
Speaker 1: the poor Marlins and the Rays can't develop real fan bases. Right. Actually,

1584
01:32:38,479 --> 01:32:40,639
Speaker 1: you don't have to go that. I go back even

1585
01:32:40,720 --> 01:32:45,599
Speaker 1: you know, Sandraw Gillham won the Democratic primary by three

1586
01:32:45,640 --> 01:32:48,479
Speaker 1: percentage points, thirty four to thirty one. A week earlier,

1587
01:32:48,560 --> 01:32:51,559
Speaker 1: he was trailing by ten. He had a bunch of

1588
01:32:51,560 --> 01:32:55,280
Speaker 1: momentum Bernie Sanders and George Soros dropped in a couple

1589
01:32:55,320 --> 01:32:58,680
Speaker 1: of late bits of money just when he needed it,

1590
01:33:00,120 --> 01:33:03,080
Speaker 1: you know. And Gwen Graham was facing attack ads from

1591
01:33:03,960 --> 01:33:07,920
Speaker 1: another candidate named Jeff Green, a Marl Lago member who

1592
01:33:08,080 --> 01:33:12,200
Speaker 1: was sort of a DEM donor but cranky, and he

1593
01:33:12,320 --> 01:33:15,040
Speaker 1: just was running these attack ads on her, just trying

1594
01:33:15,080 --> 01:33:18,759
Speaker 1: to take her out. So she didn't, you know, but

1595
01:33:18,920 --> 01:33:22,200
Speaker 1: she was definitely more of a center left candidate. She

1596
01:33:22,320 --> 01:33:26,880
Speaker 1: beats DeSantis that race, I mean, DeSantis almost beat Gilliam.

1597
01:33:28,120 --> 01:33:29,760
Speaker 1: I mean, you see me, Gillam almost won that race.

1598
01:33:29,800 --> 01:33:32,200
Speaker 1: It was decided by less than a percentage point. You know,

1599
01:33:32,640 --> 01:33:35,760
Speaker 1: both if you recall, both the governor's race and that

1600
01:33:35,800 --> 01:33:38,840
Speaker 1: Senate race almost went into I think one of them

1601
01:33:38,840 --> 01:33:41,759
Speaker 1: went to auto recount, and they almost both did because

1602
01:33:41,760 --> 01:33:43,800
Speaker 1: it was less than a percentage point that split on.

1603
01:33:43,920 --> 01:33:47,639
Speaker 1: But Gwen Graham wins that race. So you know, forget

1604
01:33:47,800 --> 01:33:50,320
Speaker 1: the Rick Scott Alex Sink race, right, I can, I

1605
01:33:50,360 --> 01:33:53,559
Speaker 1: can just you can go back even more recently, which

1606
01:33:53,600 --> 01:33:55,400
Speaker 1: of course makes it such a head scratcher that the

1607
01:33:55,400 --> 01:33:59,599
Speaker 1: Democratic Party's abandoned the state nationally right, They've just they've

1608
01:33:59,600 --> 01:34:01,960
Speaker 1: walked the way. Biden only lost the state by three points,

1609
01:34:02,520 --> 01:34:04,080
Speaker 1: and then they just but they treat it as if

1610
01:34:04,120 --> 01:34:06,400
Speaker 1: it's turned into Idaho. And then when you don't compete,

1611
01:34:06,439 --> 01:34:10,080
Speaker 1: then you stop behaving like a national party on this front. So,

1612
01:34:12,960 --> 01:34:15,320
Speaker 1: you know, I think it again, I think when you

1613
01:34:15,439 --> 01:34:17,920
Speaker 1: have you know, I think the part the Democratic Party

1614
01:34:18,080 --> 01:34:21,160
Speaker 1: has not been helped that they have not been able

1615
01:34:21,200 --> 01:34:24,280
Speaker 1: to succeed in some of these very purple states or

1616
01:34:24,320 --> 01:34:29,679
Speaker 1: sort of center right states, because those candidates would when

1617
01:34:29,680 --> 01:34:34,120
Speaker 1: they win, are able to sort of be a bit

1618
01:34:34,160 --> 01:34:37,200
Speaker 1: of a bulwark within the party when there's sort of

1619
01:34:37,240 --> 01:34:40,200
Speaker 1: a movement to sort of move things closer to the base,

1620
01:34:40,840 --> 01:34:42,439
Speaker 1: and we like, whoa, whoa, whoa, this is why this

1621
01:34:42,520 --> 01:34:44,400
Speaker 1: doesn't work here. And then all of a sudden, you know,

1622
01:34:44,439 --> 01:34:46,599
Speaker 1: you don't want to lose, so I think the lack

1623
01:34:46,640 --> 01:34:49,960
Speaker 1: of those voices winning. You know, you say, how does

1624
01:34:50,000 --> 01:34:52,600
Speaker 1: it change things? Well, first of all, the second the

1625
01:34:52,640 --> 01:34:55,880
Speaker 1: Democrats ever elect somebody governor, that person's going to be

1626
01:34:55,880 --> 01:34:59,040
Speaker 1: immediately in the short list for the national ticket. Right

1627
01:34:59,240 --> 01:35:01,360
Speaker 1: like when you when you if you have a Democrat

1628
01:35:01,400 --> 01:35:04,280
Speaker 1: winning in a state like that, you're going to quickly

1629
01:35:04,320 --> 01:35:08,000
Speaker 1: look at that person. They immediately get some national attention,

1630
01:35:08,160 --> 01:35:13,720
Speaker 1: get national following, and can potentially rebrand the party a bit,

1631
01:35:14,040 --> 01:35:16,479
Speaker 1: you know, a bit closer to the to the middle

1632
01:35:16,520 --> 01:35:20,280
Speaker 1: than maybe where where the perception of the brand is today.

1633
01:35:20,400 --> 01:35:24,240
Speaker 1: So you know, that's that's what perhaps a victory by

1634
01:35:24,240 --> 01:35:26,920
Speaker 1: Alex Sink would have mention. She was definitely very much

1635
01:35:26,920 --> 01:35:30,320
Speaker 1: more of a center left candidate, not necessarily from the

1636
01:35:30,320 --> 01:35:36,439
Speaker 1: progressive base. So it's it's it's a head scratcher. Why

1637
01:35:36,520 --> 01:35:39,639
Speaker 1: the why these Again? You go back and you look

1638
01:35:39,640 --> 01:35:43,639
Speaker 1: at the results of basically every state wide race in

1639
01:35:43,680 --> 01:35:46,800
Speaker 1: Florida from two thousand to twenty eighteen or twenty to

1640
01:35:46,880 --> 01:35:50,599
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, and then I show you the lack of

1641
01:35:50,680 --> 01:35:53,719
Speaker 1: investment and energy from in twenty twenty two in twenty

1642
01:35:53,760 --> 01:35:57,000
Speaker 1: twenty four, and you're really like, well, why do they

1643
01:35:57,040 --> 01:36:01,839
Speaker 1: do that? You know, I do think the National Democratic

1644
01:36:01,840 --> 01:36:03,200
Speaker 1: Party is going to have to take a look at

1645
01:36:03,240 --> 01:36:05,280
Speaker 1: what what the what the map is going to look

1646
01:36:05,320 --> 01:36:08,439
Speaker 1: like in the twenty thirties and ask themselves, if they

1647
01:36:08,479 --> 01:36:11,840
Speaker 1: continue to sort of retreat into what they believe are

1648
01:36:11,880 --> 01:36:15,479
Speaker 1: safe blue states, they're just dropped. They're they're not going

1649
01:36:15,520 --> 01:36:18,000
Speaker 1: to get but they're not going to have a competitive

1650
01:36:18,120 --> 01:36:21,960
Speaker 1: chance at majorities. And you know, if they don't figure

1651
01:36:21,960 --> 01:36:27,640
Speaker 1: out how to become competitive in Florida and in Texas.

1652
01:36:28,000 --> 01:36:31,080
Speaker 1: Look Florida, Texas, Ohio. They can't write all three of

1653
01:36:31,080 --> 01:36:33,680
Speaker 1: those states off. They got to get the I think

1654
01:36:33,720 --> 01:36:35,080
Speaker 1: they got to try to the goal out to be

1655
01:36:35,120 --> 01:36:38,920
Speaker 1: competitive in all three. But right now they're sort of

1656
01:36:39,320 --> 01:36:43,280
Speaker 1: right in retreating all three. And until the party cracks

1657
01:36:43,280 --> 01:36:44,800
Speaker 1: that code, I don't know if they're going to crack

1658
01:36:44,800 --> 01:36:48,400
Speaker 1: the code nationally. And that might be one way to

1659
01:36:48,920 --> 01:36:51,640
Speaker 1: follow this and one way to keep track of this

1660
01:36:51,760 --> 01:36:59,760
Speaker 1: all right, let's see here. Next question. Another Pennsylvanian in here,

1661
01:37:00,320 --> 01:37:03,920
Speaker 1: and a misschig Gander who claims to be a Penn

1662
01:37:04,000 --> 01:37:07,439
Speaker 1: State fan. Good luck with that anyway. This comes from

1663
01:37:07,479 --> 01:37:10,479
Speaker 1: Mark from an arbor. Any writes, even if research funding

1664
01:37:10,520 --> 01:37:13,160
Speaker 1: cuts are eventually restored, the damage in the interim is

1665
01:37:13,200 --> 01:37:16,479
Speaker 1: so significant that alternative funding solutions should be considered. Stage

1666
01:37:16,479 --> 01:37:19,360
Speaker 1: could issue bonds and re loan the proceeds to research institutions,

1667
01:37:19,720 --> 01:37:21,760
Speaker 1: which would cover the interest and repay the bonds through

1668
01:37:21,760 --> 01:37:25,679
Speaker 1: future grants or fundraising. While not a complete replacement, this approach,

1669
01:37:25,680 --> 01:37:29,759
Speaker 1: similar to conduit issuances used in infrastructure, could help mitigate

1670
01:37:29,800 --> 01:37:32,320
Speaker 1: the harm. What say you, that's an interesting thought that

1671
01:37:32,400 --> 01:37:38,919
Speaker 1: you would do this as bond proposals. I mean, perhaps

1672
01:37:38,960 --> 01:37:43,240
Speaker 1: this will You're right, we do it for school construction

1673
01:37:43,320 --> 01:37:44,920
Speaker 1: funding all the time in the county I live in,

1674
01:37:45,840 --> 01:37:48,120
Speaker 1: or you know it's you know where they basically have

1675
01:37:48,160 --> 01:37:50,080
Speaker 1: to ask for permission to borrow money. But they do,

1676
01:37:50,160 --> 01:37:55,560
Speaker 1: and they get these low interest loans, and the taxpayers

1677
01:37:55,560 --> 01:37:59,360
Speaker 1: are barely in our LinkedIn. I feel like we get

1678
01:37:59,400 --> 01:38:03,679
Speaker 1: our monies from from what we pay. That's an interesting

1679
01:38:04,360 --> 01:38:07,280
Speaker 1: I hope we don't have to resort to that. But

1680
01:38:08,120 --> 01:38:14,599
Speaker 1: this is one of those questions whether if this is

1681
01:38:15,680 --> 01:38:21,160
Speaker 1: you know, in our in our in our NBC poll

1682
01:38:21,160 --> 01:38:25,960
Speaker 1: our posters used to say, wait till you see a

1683
01:38:26,000 --> 01:38:29,040
Speaker 1: trend for a second straight poll before you make note

1684
01:38:29,040 --> 01:38:32,479
Speaker 1: of it amongst a demographic group. And I might say

1685
01:38:32,520 --> 01:38:35,639
Speaker 1: the same thing about presidential terms. Right, if we get

1686
01:38:35,680 --> 01:38:42,200
Speaker 1: another president, who's this you know, who decides to politicize

1687
01:38:42,200 --> 01:38:46,080
Speaker 1: scientific research like this and create a political litmus test

1688
01:38:46,120 --> 01:38:48,439
Speaker 1: for research grants, and this is sort of the place

1689
01:38:48,479 --> 01:38:51,240
Speaker 1: we go down. Well, I think all this gets privatized

1690
01:38:51,280 --> 01:38:53,560
Speaker 1: in some form or another. And maybe what you're describing,

1691
01:38:54,080 --> 01:38:56,400
Speaker 1: maybe this is you know, maybe you know, if we

1692
01:38:56,439 --> 01:38:58,280
Speaker 1: go down this road, I think we're going to be

1693
01:38:58,400 --> 01:39:03,240
Speaker 1: more of a the states may behave more as a

1694
01:39:04,280 --> 01:39:08,439
Speaker 1: more of a loose confederation. And then suddenly and then

1695
01:39:08,479 --> 01:39:14,560
Speaker 1: so I could picture your idea, you know, take Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota,

1696
01:39:15,080 --> 01:39:18,360
Speaker 1: you know, Illinois all sort of agree to put something

1697
01:39:18,479 --> 01:39:20,799
Speaker 1: like it and it and it's sort of a regional

1698
01:39:23,200 --> 01:39:26,880
Speaker 1: research initiative where they all put it in pool it

1699
01:39:26,920 --> 01:39:29,880
Speaker 1: because ultimately, right, the more the more money you can pull,

1700
01:39:29,880 --> 01:39:31,760
Speaker 1: the more you can scale some of this research. So

1701
01:39:33,320 --> 01:39:35,760
Speaker 1: my guess is that is probably what would happen if

1702
01:39:35,760 --> 01:39:39,400
Speaker 1: we if we can we continue on this road of

1703
01:39:39,560 --> 01:39:45,200
Speaker 1: having an unreliable federal government when it comes to scientific data,

1704
01:39:45,479 --> 01:39:52,880
Speaker 1: economic data, then you may see some consortiums, public private compacts,

1705
01:39:52,960 --> 01:39:57,200
Speaker 1: things like that that try to try to be bridges

1706
01:39:57,360 --> 01:39:59,920
Speaker 1: right of some sort or a new form of a

1707
01:40:00,040 --> 01:40:03,479
Speaker 1: public utility, and maybe they are state based. I guess

1708
01:40:03,520 --> 01:40:08,200
Speaker 1: I am a man. I hope we don't have to

1709
01:40:08,200 --> 01:40:12,679
Speaker 1: go down that road. I hope there's some I hope

1710
01:40:12,720 --> 01:40:15,639
Speaker 1: there's I hope this is a low point on that front.

1711
01:40:16,479 --> 01:40:21,959
Speaker 1: You know, speaking of research, there's a the CDC director

1712
01:40:22,000 --> 01:40:25,360
Speaker 1: who was appointed CDC Director by Jimmy Carter and who

1713
01:40:25,800 --> 01:40:28,719
Speaker 1: stayed in office for three years of Ronald Reagan. Okay,

1714
01:40:28,880 --> 01:40:33,160
Speaker 1: meaning that's how non political the CDC job used to

1715
01:40:33,160 --> 01:40:35,840
Speaker 1: be seen at He just wrote an op ed in

1716
01:40:35,920 --> 01:40:39,240
Speaker 1: stat magazine, which is a healthcare journal. I'm going to

1717
01:40:39,320 --> 01:40:42,360
Speaker 1: read you this quote. It's it's an unbelievable quote because

1718
01:40:42,439 --> 01:40:44,800
Speaker 1: many of you have made note that I'm pretty tough

1719
01:40:44,800 --> 01:40:49,439
Speaker 1: on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. And I am because I'm

1720
01:40:49,560 --> 01:40:54,080
Speaker 1: just I'm alarmed at the lack of alarm at the

1721
01:40:54,160 --> 01:40:59,400
Speaker 1: direct you know how much how much pain he's causing

1722
01:40:59,400 --> 01:41:03,400
Speaker 1: this country already, and physical pain that he's that he's doing.

1723
01:41:03,880 --> 01:41:05,840
Speaker 1: But this is not my way. You know, if you

1724
01:41:05,920 --> 01:41:08,559
Speaker 1: thought I've been tough on him, let me read you what.

1725
01:41:09,040 --> 01:41:13,519
Speaker 1: William Foge, the former CDC director again appointed by Carter,

1726
01:41:15,360 --> 01:41:20,240
Speaker 1: served through three years of Reagan so not a not

1727
01:41:20,240 --> 01:41:24,799
Speaker 1: not not an era where we were politicizing the CDC.

1728
01:41:25,240 --> 01:41:28,760
Speaker 1: He wrote this, Kennedy would be less hazardous if he

1729
01:41:28,840 --> 01:41:32,400
Speaker 1: decided to do cardiac surgery. Then he would kill people

1730
01:41:32,479 --> 01:41:35,919
Speaker 1: only one at a time, rather than his current ability

1731
01:41:36,000 --> 01:41:40,400
Speaker 1: to kill by the thousands. It's a pretty tough op,

1732
01:41:40,560 --> 01:41:44,559
Speaker 1: ed the headline in this again it's in stat I

1733
01:41:44,640 --> 01:41:46,000
Speaker 1: encourage you to go to take a look at it.

1734
01:41:48,479 --> 01:41:50,600
Speaker 1: How public health can fight back in a time of

1735
01:41:50,720 --> 01:41:58,280
Speaker 1: dangerous nonsense. Look, there's not a mainstream public health official

1736
01:41:58,320 --> 01:42:03,439
Speaker 1: in an America, former or current that isn't fully fully

1737
01:42:04,360 --> 01:42:11,840
Speaker 1: alarmed about the situation we're dealing with anyway. Like I said,

1738
01:42:11,920 --> 01:42:16,000
Speaker 1: I certainly hope folks sober up on this one on

1739
01:42:16,080 --> 01:42:19,960
Speaker 1: the right. All right, last question, then we'll wrap things

1740
01:42:20,040 --> 01:42:24,599
Speaker 1: up here. This comes from CW from Central New York.

1741
01:42:25,120 --> 01:42:29,000
Speaker 1: Are any elected Democrats actively calling for a constitutional convention. Frankly,

1742
01:42:29,000 --> 01:42:31,320
Speaker 1: I think the DNC is guarding its power and has

1743
01:42:31,320 --> 01:42:33,879
Speaker 1: not yet come to terms with its failure since twenty sixteen.

1744
01:42:34,080 --> 01:42:36,479
Speaker 1: As you have said, they haven't lost badly enough yet.

1745
01:42:36,520 --> 01:42:38,679
Speaker 1: I believe both parties have reasons to be hesitant about

1746
01:42:38,680 --> 01:42:41,120
Speaker 1: a constitutional convention. I think your idea to have a

1747
01:42:41,120 --> 01:42:43,360
Speaker 1: convention focusing on one or two issues would be a

1748
01:42:43,360 --> 01:42:44,960
Speaker 1: good way to start. What issues do you think are

1749
01:42:45,000 --> 01:42:48,519
Speaker 1: ripe for amendments? Which amendment issues do you think could

1750
01:42:48,520 --> 01:42:50,800
Speaker 1: do the most to move the country in a positive direction.

1751
01:42:50,840 --> 01:42:53,320
Speaker 1: Would you consider doing an episode on how a constitutional

1752
01:42:53,520 --> 01:42:57,600
Speaker 1: convention might unfold? Thank you, CW. I like that idea

1753
01:42:59,200 --> 01:43:01,679
Speaker 1: about trying to, you know, see how one would work

1754
01:43:01,960 --> 01:43:04,839
Speaker 1: and how one might unfold if you will.

1755
01:43:06,720 --> 01:43:07,120
Speaker 2: And.

1756
01:43:10,160 --> 01:43:12,160
Speaker 1: You know you asked me, I guess I look at

1757
01:43:12,160 --> 01:43:16,880
Speaker 1: it this way. It's sort of like what a successful

1758
01:43:16,920 --> 01:43:19,200
Speaker 1: constitutional convention is going to have to be a give

1759
01:43:19,200 --> 01:43:22,400
Speaker 1: and take between the left and the right. I think

1760
01:43:22,400 --> 01:43:26,200
Speaker 1: a balance budget amendment is it's sort of like, what

1761
01:43:26,200 --> 01:43:29,960
Speaker 1: what is what is the most con what is the

1762
01:43:29,960 --> 01:43:34,040
Speaker 1: most I guess this is confirmable, the word that you

1763
01:43:34,040 --> 01:43:36,919
Speaker 1: would use for an amendment, right, you know, which amendment

1764
01:43:37,000 --> 01:43:41,160
Speaker 1: that comes from Team Right has the best shot at

1765
01:43:41,200 --> 01:43:43,200
Speaker 1: getting the seventy five percent that you need all of

1766
01:43:43,200 --> 01:43:47,759
Speaker 1: those markers. To me, it's the balance budget amendment. Those

1767
01:43:47,840 --> 01:43:49,639
Speaker 1: that on the left, which are the ones, I think

1768
01:43:49,640 --> 01:43:53,080
Speaker 1: it would be campaign finance reform. Right, So you know,

1769
01:43:53,160 --> 01:43:56,840
Speaker 1: those are the two issues. I think you have term

1770
01:43:56,880 --> 01:44:01,800
Speaker 1: limits and age limits. I think it's campaign and I

1771
01:44:01,840 --> 01:44:04,840
Speaker 1: think it's public debt. Right, you know, those sort of

1772
01:44:04,960 --> 01:44:09,479
Speaker 1: three entities because I think ultimately right the convenders, you know,

1773
01:44:10,520 --> 01:44:12,680
Speaker 1: I think we need like a good I think we

1774
01:44:12,720 --> 01:44:18,640
Speaker 1: need Netflix to do an eight episode series called The

1775
01:44:19,320 --> 01:44:23,400
Speaker 1: Continental Congress. Will Benjamin Franklin, you know, you know, just

1776
01:44:23,680 --> 01:44:26,400
Speaker 1: try to maybe we could dramatize the moments and you

1777
01:44:26,479 --> 01:44:29,000
Speaker 1: have these cliffhangers. What are they going to do about this?

1778
01:44:29,320 --> 01:44:32,439
Speaker 1: How are they going to balance the small states? Are

1779
01:44:32,479 --> 01:44:35,479
Speaker 1: mad at Virginia and Massachusetts? What are they going to do?

1780
01:44:36,040 --> 01:44:38,040
Speaker 1: You know, are they going to pull out of this

1781
01:44:38,120 --> 01:44:41,640
Speaker 1: new country? Right? Maybe that would grab people's attention and

1782
01:44:41,680 --> 01:44:45,559
Speaker 1: they could learn how the whole thing worked so and

1783
01:44:45,600 --> 01:44:47,960
Speaker 1: then then that would then trigger. But the point is

1784
01:44:48,320 --> 01:44:54,600
Speaker 1: the original Continental Congress, right, the original Constitutional Convention was

1785
01:44:54,640 --> 01:44:57,559
Speaker 1: a series of compromises before we got our constitution, we

1786
01:44:57,600 --> 01:45:02,479
Speaker 1: had the failed Articles of Confederation. So it's one of

1787
01:45:02,479 --> 01:45:04,840
Speaker 1: those that goes back to Charlie Cook's frustration that we

1788
01:45:05,240 --> 01:45:10,320
Speaker 1: are civics education that particularly sort of the rationale behind

1789
01:45:10,439 --> 01:45:13,680
Speaker 1: why our government is a republic, why we're formed the

1790
01:45:13,720 --> 01:45:17,640
Speaker 1: way we're formed, et cetera. I certainly would want the

1791
01:45:17,800 --> 01:45:21,439
Speaker 1: entire country to understand that before we went into one.

1792
01:45:21,520 --> 01:45:23,000
Speaker 1: But if you're looking for a way to have a

1793
01:45:23,040 --> 01:45:26,360
Speaker 1: successful constitutional convention, I think the three I think the

1794
01:45:26,400 --> 01:45:30,200
Speaker 1: three topics really are public debt, age in term limits,

1795
01:45:30,640 --> 01:45:34,280
Speaker 1: and campaign money. Right. I think you find ways to

1796
01:45:34,320 --> 01:45:38,440
Speaker 1: deal with those three. I think everything else is probably problematic.

1797
01:45:39,000 --> 01:45:40,679
Speaker 1: You know, you might have people that want to put

1798
01:45:40,800 --> 01:45:45,400
Speaker 1: a right privacy or a right. Maybe the Equal Rights

1799
01:45:45,439 --> 01:45:49,679
Speaker 1: Amendment get sort of does officially get put in. There's

1800
01:45:49,680 --> 01:45:52,759
Speaker 1: some that argue that that that that clock is still running.

1801
01:45:54,360 --> 01:45:59,920
Speaker 1: I think that's a I certainly wouldn't. That's probably not

1802
01:46:00,120 --> 01:46:03,719
Speaker 1: the best way for for that amendment to get ratified.

1803
01:46:03,720 --> 01:46:05,320
Speaker 1: I think you'd want to have have it to be

1804
01:46:05,400 --> 01:46:11,120
Speaker 1: more uh more a more modern vote on that one.

1805
01:46:11,200 --> 01:46:15,000
Speaker 1: But I think if you started there, you could deal

1806
01:46:15,080 --> 01:46:17,160
Speaker 1: with a lot of a lot of issues, right, I

1807
01:46:17,200 --> 01:46:20,080
Speaker 1: think if we could figure out a way to constitutionally

1808
01:46:20,120 --> 01:46:25,200
Speaker 1: limit money without it being seen as limiting speech. I

1809
01:46:25,240 --> 01:46:28,599
Speaker 1: do think we would, you know, we would, We could,

1810
01:46:28,600 --> 01:46:30,599
Speaker 1: so we could deal with a lot of a lot

1811
01:46:30,600 --> 01:46:33,280
Speaker 1: of problems that have sort of perverted our politics a

1812
01:46:33,320 --> 01:46:37,200
Speaker 1: little bit. And I've not always been you know, for

1813
01:46:37,240 --> 01:46:39,320
Speaker 1: the longest time, it always felt like, well, you know,

1814
01:46:39,320 --> 01:46:41,519
Speaker 1: money's always going to find a way. But but but boy,

1815
01:46:41,560 --> 01:46:44,639
Speaker 1: we've gotten really you know, it's gotten too easy to hide,

1816
01:46:44,680 --> 01:46:46,800
Speaker 1: it's gotten too easy to you know, all of those things.

1817
01:46:46,800 --> 01:46:48,600
Speaker 1: So I think that I think those would be the

1818
01:46:48,640 --> 01:46:56,479
Speaker 1: topics that you would most likely have have success at

1819
01:46:56,520 --> 01:47:00,240
Speaker 1: getting passed. But you know, I would love to a

1820
01:47:00,240 --> 01:47:05,200
Speaker 1: constitutional convention simply for the educational aspect. You know. Again,

1821
01:47:05,439 --> 01:47:09,679
Speaker 1: you know, when I had Lindsay Shravinsky on my Newsphere

1822
01:47:09,720 --> 01:47:12,200
Speaker 1: show not too long ago, if you have a chance

1823
01:47:12,640 --> 01:47:16,280
Speaker 1: check it out, I asked her how the Founders would

1824
01:47:16,280 --> 01:47:18,880
Speaker 1: be handling this moment. She said, you know, there's always

1825
01:47:18,920 --> 01:47:21,679
Speaker 1: one thing that jumped out at me that she says

1826
01:47:21,760 --> 01:47:24,760
Speaker 1: that she says, you know, the founders didn't think the

1827
01:47:24,760 --> 01:47:28,280
Speaker 1: Constitution would last more than a generation. That the biggest

1828
01:47:28,320 --> 01:47:30,080
Speaker 1: thing that there are two things that would shock the

1829
01:47:30,080 --> 01:47:32,920
Speaker 1: founders that they came back today. One is that it's

1830
01:47:32,920 --> 01:47:36,680
Speaker 1: still going, that we didn't rip it up and have

1831
01:47:36,760 --> 01:47:40,200
Speaker 1: a new one. A lot of democracies do that. The

1832
01:47:40,280 --> 01:47:45,240
Speaker 1: second is that it only has twenty eight amendments. They

1833
01:47:45,240 --> 01:47:48,679
Speaker 1: thought there'd be a lot more amendments. And that goes

1834
01:47:48,680 --> 01:47:50,320
Speaker 1: back to something I shared with you before. You know,

1835
01:47:50,360 --> 01:47:52,640
Speaker 1: one of the great observations to topeful mate about the

1836
01:47:52,680 --> 01:47:55,760
Speaker 1: strength of our democracy is sort of how into politics

1837
01:47:55,760 --> 01:47:59,360
Speaker 1: we were at the local level. That seems to have

1838
01:47:59,400 --> 01:48:05,559
Speaker 1: gone away, right, So maybe a constitutional convention will sort

1839
01:48:05,560 --> 01:48:12,080
Speaker 1: of renew our renew our commitment to our citizenship and

1840
01:48:12,120 --> 01:48:14,679
Speaker 1: realize that, you know, there is some responsibility that comes

1841
01:48:14,680 --> 01:48:19,200
Speaker 1: with it, you know, if you if we want the

1842
01:48:19,240 --> 01:48:21,479
Speaker 1: benefits that come with it, and we want good stuff

1843
01:48:21,479 --> 01:48:25,600
Speaker 1: to happen, you know, we can't just sit here and

1844
01:48:25,680 --> 01:48:28,959
Speaker 1: watch and complain. We got to participate, right, Sometimes participation

1845
01:48:29,080 --> 01:48:33,280
Speaker 1: is just just being knowledgeable and voting. You know, if

1846
01:48:33,280 --> 01:48:36,000
Speaker 1: you just do that, you're doing your job as a citizen.

1847
01:48:36,840 --> 01:48:41,240
Speaker 1: I think we've got plenty of people voting, and I

1848
01:48:41,280 --> 01:48:43,400
Speaker 1: fear we have plenty of people who think they're knowledgeable,

1849
01:48:43,400 --> 01:48:45,400
Speaker 1: But we have a lot of garbage information out there,

1850
01:48:45,960 --> 01:48:48,600
Speaker 1: and you know that that's that gets it to the

1851
01:48:48,600 --> 01:48:52,000
Speaker 1: bigger thing that we've got to fix. Right. You know,

1852
01:48:53,320 --> 01:48:56,719
Speaker 1: it is tough to get a country of three hundred

1853
01:48:56,720 --> 01:48:58,679
Speaker 1: and fifty million people to row in the same direction.

1854
01:48:58,800 --> 01:49:04,280
Speaker 1: If if if we're siloed in you know, six hundred

1855
01:49:04,320 --> 01:49:07,720
Speaker 1: different if we're in six hundred different silos and have

1856
01:49:07,800 --> 01:49:11,320
Speaker 1: no idea what everybody else is seeing, hearing, or reading.

1857
01:49:12,880 --> 01:49:15,439
Speaker 1: So with that, when I see you next time, I

1858
01:49:15,520 --> 01:49:18,719
Speaker 1: will have tried to figure out what's in this empty nest.

1859
01:49:19,479 --> 01:49:24,519
Speaker 1: Do I redesign my kids' bedrooms immediately right? Or we

1860
01:49:24,600 --> 01:49:26,920
Speaker 1: wait a few more years until I do that. But

1861
01:49:27,000 --> 01:49:29,920
Speaker 1: either way, I will end this one here, and we

1862
01:49:30,000 --> 01:49:33,559
Speaker 1: will see you after a long weekend until we upload again.