1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

2
00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

3
00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119
Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android

4
00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

5
00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,120
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,000
Speaker 2: It's all about Greenland today at the White House and

7
00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:30,560
Speaker 2: maybe Iran two as we try to tackle both of

8
00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:33,879
Speaker 2: these stories in tandem with the help of Bloomberg Washington

9
00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:36,120
Speaker 2: correspondent Tyler Kendall, who will be with us in just

10
00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:39,239
Speaker 2: a moment. Knowing that we've got officials in town here

11
00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,360
Speaker 2: and the US President is reiterating as assertion that the

12
00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:44,879
Speaker 2: US needs Greenland free at another reason now, and that

13
00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 2: would be the Golden Dome. As we've been reporting, officials

14
00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:54,880
Speaker 2: from Denmark and Greenland, the foreign ministers from both are

15
00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:56,960
Speaker 2: here in town meeting at the White House with the

16
00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:59,960
Speaker 2: Vice President JD. Vance, the Secretary of State Marco Rube.

17
00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,240
Speaker 2: Only hours after the President went on truth Social to

18
00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,720
Speaker 2: say NATO tell Denmark to get them out of here now.

19
00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:10,600
Speaker 2: Two dog sleds won't do it, referring to both Russia

20
00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,960
Speaker 2: and China. He was linking to a story about them.

21
00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,760
Speaker 2: This is not something that the people of Denmark or

22
00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:20,560
Speaker 2: Greenland appear to be interested. And in fact, we heard

23
00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:23,880
Speaker 2: from the elected leader of Greenland, Jen's Frederick Nielsen in

24
00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,800
Speaker 2: this case speaking through a translator, and we'll play your

25
00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:28,080
Speaker 2: President Trump's follow.

26
00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:29,199
Speaker 3: Up as well. Let's listen together.

27
00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,759
Speaker 4: Now, we have faced with a geopolitical crisis. And if

28
00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,640
Speaker 4: you have to choose between the United States and Denmark Keran, now,

29
00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:38,760
Speaker 4: then we choose Denmark, we choose NATO, we choose the

30
00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,200
Speaker 4: Kingdom of Denmark, we choose the European Union.

31
00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,319
Speaker 5: That's their problem, that's their problem.

32
00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:45,320
Speaker 3: I disagree with him.

33
00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:48,280
Speaker 6: I don't know who he is, don't know anything about him,

34
00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,440
Speaker 6: but that's going to be a big problem for him.

35
00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,480
Speaker 2: He may want to start learning about him, because this is,

36
00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:58,480
Speaker 2: of course the leader, the elected leader of Greenland. Politico

37
00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:01,040
Speaker 2: now reporting that EU leaders are working on a potential

38
00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:03,480
Speaker 2: deal to offer the President here that might allow him

39
00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:08,240
Speaker 2: to take a victory lap but keep Greenland as a

40
00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:10,240
Speaker 2: territory of Denmark. We want to get to all of

41
00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,240
Speaker 2: this with Tyler Kendall. I've barely mentioned Iran today, and

42
00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,639
Speaker 2: the President is also speaking pretty strongly about what's happening

43
00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,600
Speaker 2: in Tehran, Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall, What are they

44
00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:21,360
Speaker 2: talking about here at the White House?

45
00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:21,799
Speaker 7: Right?

46
00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:26,480
Speaker 8: So, we had heard earlier from the Denmark Prime Minister

47
00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:29,880
Speaker 8: and defence minister saying that the country is ready to

48
00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:33,280
Speaker 8: bolster its own defense in the region and what was

49
00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:36,560
Speaker 8: apparently a bid to try to satisfy some of President

50
00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,800
Speaker 8: Trump's concerns, because it probably is worth pointing out that

51
00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:42,400
Speaker 8: on balance of power, last week we spoke to so

52
00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:45,040
Speaker 8: many experts who actually did tell us that the US

53
00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,119
Speaker 8: is a little bit behind the curve when it comes

54
00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:50,280
Speaker 8: to the Arctic in comparison to Russia and China. But

55
00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:52,359
Speaker 8: many of them are saying that there are other ways

56
00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,800
Speaker 8: to go about this besides for threatening the use of

57
00:02:54,880 --> 00:03:00,200
Speaker 8: military force. So the idea that Denmark could expect and

58
00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,800
Speaker 8: its own defense resources doesn't seem to be enough for

59
00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,560
Speaker 8: the president. So now we're talking about some other potential

60
00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:08,919
Speaker 8: options that could be on at the table. There's different reporting,

61
00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:13,080
Speaker 8: including from political including from our own analysts at Bloomberg Economics,

62
00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,040
Speaker 8: that say that this could range perhaps an economic cooperation

63
00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,640
Speaker 8: pact where the US could have expanded access to mining

64
00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,200
Speaker 8: critical minerals. We know that there are some large oil

65
00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:26,720
Speaker 8: deposits in Greenland that the US may be interested in,

66
00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:32,280
Speaker 8: or it could be perhaps expanding US assets in the region,

67
00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:35,360
Speaker 8: if that's something that President Trump wants to pursue. But

68
00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,320
Speaker 8: what I find most fascinating about our reporting today is

69
00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,800
Speaker 8: this meeting is happening between the Foreign Ministers of Denmark,

70
00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:45,040
Speaker 8: of Greenland, Vice President JD. Vance and Secretary of State

71
00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:48,360
Speaker 8: Mark Rubio. Our reporting indicates that Vance's presence in this

72
00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:53,000
Speaker 8: meeting was actually alarming to Denmark because, according to people

73
00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:55,720
Speaker 8: familiar Marco Rubio behind the scenes has been a little

74
00:03:55,720 --> 00:04:00,600
Speaker 8: bit more conciliatory to concerns from our European allies. Denmark

75
00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,520
Speaker 8: views JD. Vance as a more unpredictable character in all

76
00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:04,760
Speaker 8: of this.

77
00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:07,680
Speaker 2: Wait really something in following his visit to Greenland. He

78
00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,320
Speaker 2: had some pretty tough remarks on that visit many months ago.

79
00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,640
Speaker 2: It's interesting here there may be an answer on Capitol

80
00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:20,120
Speaker 2: Hill with the presentation of a bipartisan bill in the

81
00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:25,600
Speaker 2: Senate designed to keep the American military from occupying NATO territories.

82
00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,360
Speaker 2: To think that that's even being written in legislative form

83
00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:30,440
Speaker 2: is remarkable. Tyler I want to ask you before we

84
00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:34,000
Speaker 2: get to Congresswoman Haley Stevens about Iran as well. The

85
00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,600
Speaker 2: President's been on truth, social help is on its way

86
00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:40,240
Speaker 2: in all caps, speaking to anti government protesters, and we

87
00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:44,039
Speaker 2: know he's being brief today on military options for Iran.

88
00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,360
Speaker 3: Are we really seriously considering strikes?

89
00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:48,880
Speaker 8: Well, this comes after we had reported that the US

90
00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,520
Speaker 8: was moving military staff out of the region, officials telling

91
00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:55,560
Speaker 8: Bloomberg on Wednesday that there had been some redeployment of

92
00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:59,599
Speaker 8: US personnel in Qatar and around other American bases in

93
00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:01,719
Speaker 8: the region. And now we had reported over the weekend

94
00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,880
Speaker 8: that the president was briefed on a range of potential

95
00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:07,560
Speaker 8: military strikes, and a senior official said that he was

96
00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:12,440
Speaker 8: seriously considering authorizing a military attack. We'll have to see

97
00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:14,839
Speaker 8: where this ultimately goes. There's a few options on the

98
00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,520
Speaker 8: table that might not be lethal force. We also know

99
00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:20,520
Speaker 8: that he was briefed on options for a cyber a

100
00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:23,560
Speaker 8: cyber attack. Then, earlier this week, the White House Press

101
00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,560
Speaker 8: Secretary Caroline leave That did say diplomacy was still on

102
00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:28,640
Speaker 8: the table, that there could be these talks. But of

103
00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:32,039
Speaker 8: course President Trump posting again saying that he was calling

104
00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:36,159
Speaker 8: off all meetings between the US and Iran, which is

105
00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:38,719
Speaker 8: now leading to these big questions about what's going to

106
00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:39,320
Speaker 8: happen next.

107
00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:41,720
Speaker 3: Remarkable, once again, a remarkable moment.

108
00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:44,200
Speaker 2: We're in, Tyler, thank you so much for putting that

109
00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:48,120
Speaker 2: together so effectively for US. Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall

110
00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:49,960
Speaker 2: with us live in Washington, as we have the voice

111
00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,320
Speaker 2: now of Congresswoman Haley Stevens, the Democrat from Michigan, is

112
00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,919
Speaker 2: with us live from Capitol Hill, also a Senate candidate

113
00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:56,720
Speaker 2: and congresswoman.

114
00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:58,880
Speaker 3: It's great to see. I hope your years starting off well.

115
00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,040
Speaker 2: I have to ask you just to start about what

116
00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:04,520
Speaker 2: we were just discussing here with regard to Greenland and Iran.

117
00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:09,279
Speaker 2: There are war powers bills in both chambers. Do you

118
00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:13,080
Speaker 2: support them? Do you worry about the President's designs on

119
00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:17,000
Speaker 2: Greenland or a potential next round of strikes against Tehran?

120
00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:23,839
Speaker 9: I do support war powers resolutions and Article one in

121
00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:29,480
Speaker 9: the Constitution. I also support innocent people in Iran protesting

122
00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:35,800
Speaker 9: for their freedom. We want to see Congress brought in

123
00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:41,159
Speaker 9: to these discussions and any decisions that would get made,

124
00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:47,359
Speaker 9: particularly given that there's a lot of volatility from a

125
00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:52,520
Speaker 9: NATO ally to Iran to other areas around the world.

126
00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:55,800
Speaker 9: I sit on the Select Committee on Strategic Competition with

127
00:06:55,839 --> 00:07:00,640
Speaker 9: the Chinese Communist Party as well. We know that China

128
00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:04,320
Speaker 9: and Russia they're watching and our moves are going to

129
00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:06,440
Speaker 9: have global ramifications.

130
00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:10,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned China because I have yet

131
00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:14,840
Speaker 2: to mention Venezuela. And there are a lot of folks

132
00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:18,040
Speaker 2: who think that the President's actions in Venezuela are in

133
00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:22,000
Speaker 2: fact a very productive bank shot against Beijing, the biggest

134
00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:27,040
Speaker 2: buyer of Venezuelan oil. Does the US intervention in Venezuela

135
00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:30,160
Speaker 2: actually have an ancillary benefit when it comes to dealing

136
00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:32,400
Speaker 2: with China, Well, we have to.

137
00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:33,360
Speaker 10: See how it plays out.

138
00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:39,800
Speaker 9: Certainly, the administration has taken the steps to go it alone.

139
00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:44,520
Speaker 9: They have been trying to bring in American energy companies.

140
00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,239
Speaker 10: That doesn't necessarily look like they have a deal.

141
00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:52,640
Speaker 9: But at the end of the day, China that we're

142
00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,760
Speaker 9: competing with, and we know this in Michigan very well.

143
00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:58,960
Speaker 9: We want to have a strong industrial base, we want

144
00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:02,680
Speaker 9: to have strong manufacturing and all we've gotten from this

145
00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:08,400
Speaker 9: administration is nine ten straight months of declining manufacturing jobs

146
00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:09,240
Speaker 9: and productivity.

147
00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:13,720
Speaker 2: Well, speaking of manufacturing. The President of the United States

148
00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:16,800
Speaker 2: was in your state yesterday. He swung through Detroit to

149
00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,320
Speaker 2: make a speech on the economy, which touched on some

150
00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:21,320
Speaker 2: of the other issues that we're talking about as well,

151
00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,080
Speaker 2: including the FED share, and then he went to tour

152
00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,680
Speaker 2: a Ford plant. And I know that it's one that's

153
00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:29,640
Speaker 2: close to your heart, as not only someone who's been

154
00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:32,000
Speaker 2: so deeply involved in the auto industry, having worked with

155
00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,480
Speaker 2: the Obama administration and the Great Recession and representing an

156
00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:40,040
Speaker 2: area teaming with auto workers. We saw the President talk

157
00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:43,679
Speaker 2: about the auto industry and share some time with auto

158
00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:45,600
Speaker 2: workers there. I can ask you about the one he

159
00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,120
Speaker 2: flipped off a little bit later on. But I'm just curious,

160
00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:52,000
Speaker 2: when you consider the backdrop of tariffs and the state

161
00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,400
Speaker 2: of our economy, how concerned you are about the auto

162
00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,360
Speaker 2: sector right now, because we've actually been seeing some pretty

163
00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:59,120
Speaker 2: great advances for these companies.

164
00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:04,520
Speaker 9: Well, we're also seeing rollbacks on investment. There's been headline

165
00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:09,840
Speaker 9: after our headline that has revealed that the investments coming

166
00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,600
Speaker 9: into our industrial base for manufacturing as being pulled back.

167
00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,800
Speaker 9: Is someone who worked in the Treasury Department during the

168
00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:18,760
Speaker 9: Great Recession.

169
00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:20,240
Speaker 10: On that auto rescue.

170
00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:24,000
Speaker 9: I will tell you, it's very eerily similar to the

171
00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:27,240
Speaker 9: things I heard back then to today, people saying, oh,

172
00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,959
Speaker 9: we made it through the Great Recession, we can make

173
00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:34,560
Speaker 9: it through this time of uncertainty. And it's one thing

174
00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:38,360
Speaker 9: if a very very few are seeing a bigger paycheck,

175
00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:40,800
Speaker 9: but at the end of the day, it's our workers

176
00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:45,200
Speaker 9: who are paying more. Erratic tariffs are attacks, There are

177
00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:48,400
Speaker 9: attacks on consumers, there are attacks on small to mid

178
00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:49,440
Speaker 9: sized manufacturers.

179
00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:51,720
Speaker 10: We have this administration giving.

180
00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,720
Speaker 9: Billions of dollars to Argentina when we should be helping

181
00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:57,839
Speaker 9: these small to mid sized manufacturers.

182
00:09:58,320 --> 00:09:59,760
Speaker 10: And they're workers.

183
00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,800
Speaker 9: Folks I know very well, who are paying a huge

184
00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,880
Speaker 9: cost because of these tariffs because they're operating like at

185
00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:10,440
Speaker 9: tax and they're not being implemented. Well, they haven't been.

186
00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:13,480
Speaker 9: It's been a erratic it's been chaotic. We didn't know

187
00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:17,000
Speaker 9: which way this administration was going to go day after day.

188
00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,400
Speaker 9: And now the president yet again is taking a victory lap.

189
00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,320
Speaker 9: And yeah, you know he's given the middle finger to

190
00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,960
Speaker 9: manufacturers and workers multiple times over and proofs in the pudding.

191
00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:28,959
Speaker 10: We see it in the data.

192
00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:32,680
Speaker 2: Joe, Well, it's not a coincidence that he went to

193
00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:36,439
Speaker 2: your state to talk about the issue of affordability Congresswoman.

194
00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,640
Speaker 2: He of course won Michigan, and I'm wondering how you

195
00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:43,040
Speaker 2: think this issue plays for voters in Michigan, and an

196
00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:45,720
Speaker 2: issue that he refers to at times as a Democratic hoax.

197
00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:48,600
Speaker 10: Well, I'll tell you what.

198
00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:53,640
Speaker 9: I'm offering, real policy solutions for michigan ers each and

199
00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,280
Speaker 9: every single day, for their pocketbooks and for their jobs.

200
00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:01,880
Speaker 9: I've authored good legislation that says no tariffs on groceries

201
00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:06,120
Speaker 9: because blanket tariffs on imported food is causing the cost of.

202
00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:08,200
Speaker 10: Your grocery bill to go up.

203
00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:13,679
Speaker 9: It is costing you real dollars. Same thing with a

204
00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:18,160
Speaker 9: bill that I've authored to offer a real industrial policy

205
00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:23,080
Speaker 9: solution for our dependency on China for critical minerals. Call

206
00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:27,440
Speaker 9: this bill Unearthed America's Future Act. Loan guarantees, tax credits,

207
00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:29,760
Speaker 9: create jobs, lower costs.

208
00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:32,600
Speaker 10: That's how we get things done. And that's real.

209
00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:36,199
Speaker 2: Credit card ahs and interest rates. What did you think

210
00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:38,520
Speaker 2: of that? Donald Trump on the phone with Elizabeth Warren

211
00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:42,760
Speaker 2: this week, meeting somewhere in the middle on capping interest

212
00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:43,880
Speaker 2: rates on credit cards.

213
00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:45,520
Speaker 3: Is that something you'd support.

214
00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:49,559
Speaker 9: Well, there's a lot of great democratic ideas that we'd

215
00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,440
Speaker 9: like to see this president support first and foremost extending

216
00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,320
Speaker 9: the ACA subsidies and making them permanent so people can

217
00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:59,120
Speaker 9: afford their healthcare. That is something that I hear from

218
00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:00,560
Speaker 9: michiganers around on the clock.

219
00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:02,880
Speaker 10: Credit card debt is very real.

220
00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:06,120
Speaker 9: It has ballooned to one point two one point three

221
00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,920
Speaker 9: trillion dollars. That's because the grocery bill is going on

222
00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:13,200
Speaker 9: credit cards. So let's talk about proven strategies to lower cost,

223
00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:17,440
Speaker 9: create jobs, and grow our manufacturing economy. That's what I'm

224
00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:19,440
Speaker 9: doing every single day for the people in Michigan.

225
00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,880
Speaker 2: Just a minute left, Congresswoman, with all of that said,

226
00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:26,400
Speaker 2: you're running for the Senate, and there's an important bill

227
00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:28,680
Speaker 2: in the Senate, the Moreno bill that would extend those

228
00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:33,280
Speaker 2: ACA subsidies for two years, but with some restrictions. That's

229
00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,320
Speaker 2: different than the clean extension that passed the House. Is

230
00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:37,560
Speaker 2: it something you would support.

231
00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:41,200
Speaker 9: We need to see this legislation get passed and sign

232
00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:42,880
Speaker 9: in a law. The Senate should take up what we

233
00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:46,480
Speaker 9: passed in the House. It was bipartisan, it was a

234
00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,400
Speaker 9: step in the right direction. It was actually a very

235
00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,640
Speaker 9: bipartisan bill. So we'll see what the Senate comes back with.

236
00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:55,320
Speaker 9: But I want to give Michigander some relief. It's also

237
00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:58,720
Speaker 9: why I'm fighting so hard for their Medicaid and Medicare,

238
00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:03,760
Speaker 9: the certainty folks need to just go about their everyday lives.

239
00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,080
Speaker 9: Michigan Anders know I'm always going to have their back

240
00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,240
Speaker 9: when it comes to dealing with healthcare costs, their jobs,

241
00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,000
Speaker 9: and our sound, good economic policy. I'm not going to

242
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,280
Speaker 9: be a rubber stamp for this administration like Mike Rogers.

243
00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:16,760
Speaker 10: I'm going to be a fighter.

244
00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:20,040
Speaker 2: Comis a congresswoman. Let's do it in person next time.

245
00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:21,720
Speaker 2: Thank you for coming back to see us here on

246
00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,880
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. The Democrat from Michigan and Senate

247
00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:28,880
Speaker 2: candidate in the battleground state of Michigan. We assembled our

248
00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,120
Speaker 2: political panel quickly for their thoughts on this, and we're

249
00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:34,439
Speaker 2: going to talk to Republican Congressman Brian Style coming up

250
00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:38,640
Speaker 2: next this hour. Adam Hodge, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democratic strategist

251
00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:43,560
Speaker 2: managing partner at Bully Pulpit International, alongside Republican strategist Mara Gillespie,

252
00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,680
Speaker 2: Blue Stack Strategies Founder. It's great having you both with

253
00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:50,120
Speaker 2: us here. Mora, as a longtime creature of the House,

254
00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:53,440
Speaker 2: I'm wondering your thoughts on what you just heard and whether,

255
00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:57,240
Speaker 2: in fact we should anticipate a deal to extend or

256
00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,640
Speaker 2: revive Obamacare subsidies.

257
00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:02,960
Speaker 7: You know, I think you heard a lot of members,

258
00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:05,840
Speaker 7: you know, who went home to their districts and really

259
00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:09,600
Speaker 7: listened to their constituents, and they recognize the pains that

260
00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:14,880
Speaker 7: many Americans are feeling in terms of the word affordability, right,

261
00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:16,840
Speaker 7: you know, And so when it comes to health care costs,

262
00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,080
Speaker 7: they have risen, and so they do need to address it.

263
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,920
Speaker 7: And I don't think that Republicans can stand by simply

264
00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,880
Speaker 7: the idea that Obamacare is it working, and while that

265
00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,400
Speaker 7: may be true, it doesn't take away the pains that

266
00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,400
Speaker 7: Americans are feeling in terms of cost and so they

267
00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,240
Speaker 7: do need to be showing a good faith effort to

268
00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,200
Speaker 7: negotiate and to work with their colleagues across the aisle

269
00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:39,000
Speaker 7: to get something done that is both a long term

270
00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,400
Speaker 7: solution and a short term solution. So it's something that

271
00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,600
Speaker 7: needs to be really, you know, focused on, and I

272
00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:46,840
Speaker 7: don't think they can get away with simply ignoring it

273
00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:49,960
Speaker 7: any longer. And so I think the Congressman there is

274
00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:51,360
Speaker 7: right to point that out.

275
00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:54,960
Speaker 2: Is the momentum here for this, Adam Hodge or is

276
00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:56,640
Speaker 2: this a waste of time for lawmakers?

277
00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:00,800
Speaker 11: I mean, Joey talked about this a little bit last week.

278
00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,360
Speaker 11: I thought, maybe you'd get twenty votes for the bill.

279
00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,920
Speaker 11: We ended up with seventeen. That's stronger than I think

280
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:10,200
Speaker 11: people were honestly expecting, and it does give some momentum,

281
00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,160
Speaker 11: the proof that there is bipartisan support for a clean

282
00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:16,400
Speaker 11: three year extension. Maybe we end up with a two year,

283
00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:21,160
Speaker 11: clean year extension. But I think the Republicans, if they're smart,

284
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,440
Speaker 11: wouldn't give Democrats another bite of the apple to put

285
00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:27,440
Speaker 11: this over their head and keep beating this drum, because

286
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,680
Speaker 11: it has been no question, it has been incredibly effective

287
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,960
Speaker 11: as a tool for Democrats to paint the Republicans as

288
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,200
Speaker 11: not dealing with affordability issues.

289
00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:38,280
Speaker 3: One point four million.

290
00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:41,040
Speaker 11: Fewer people sign up for Obamacare in the last year.

291
00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,680
Speaker 11: That's a real problem to the White House. People have

292
00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:46,600
Speaker 11: higher costs as a real number, that's a real number.

293
00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:49,560
Speaker 3: All right, Our panel's going to stay with us.

294
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,360
Speaker 2: We're going to talk with Republican Congressman Brian's style of Wisconsin,

295
00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,920
Speaker 2: and then we'll bring back Adam Hodge and more Gillespie

296
00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 2: as we try to figure the way forward here on

297
00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,240
Speaker 2: subsidies and on a stock trading we'll have that next

298
00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:04,280
Speaker 2: right here on Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance of Power.

299
00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:06,080
Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up after this.

300
00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:14,920
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

301
00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,000
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

302
00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:21,400
Speaker 1: Apple Coarckley, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

303
00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,800
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

304
00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,400
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

305
00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:31,240
Speaker 2: We turn to the potential for a new compromise stock

306
00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,360
Speaker 2: trading band for lawmakers on Capitol Hill. This is a

307
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,680
Speaker 2: big story for our audience and certainly for the lawmakers

308
00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:39,760
Speaker 2: we talked to on a daily basis here on Balance

309
00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:41,960
Speaker 2: of Power. Thank you for being with us on the

310
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:46,640
Speaker 2: Wednesday edition. It all comes together in the House Administration Committee.

311
00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,800
Speaker 2: An important markup here is the committee considers this bill

312
00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:54,520
Speaker 2: to bar lawmakers from trading stocks and putting it on

313
00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,760
Speaker 2: a fast track. After this was announced by the chairman

314
00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:01,360
Speaker 2: of that committee, Brian Style, the Republic from Wisconsin joins

315
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:05,040
Speaker 2: us right now live from Capitol Hill. Mister Chairman, it's

316
00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,399
Speaker 2: great to see you back on Bloomberg. TV and radio.

317
00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:12,240
Speaker 2: This is an important moment here Knowing that the existing legislation,

318
00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:16,760
Speaker 2: the Stock Act, is rarely enforced. This legislation you've brought

319
00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:21,000
Speaker 2: forward has more teeth. It would, however, not require members

320
00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:25,200
Speaker 2: to divest all of their holdings if they were elected

321
00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:29,119
Speaker 2: and brought into Congress. Is that the biggest difference between

322
00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:30,320
Speaker 2: these other bills.

323
00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:34,119
Speaker 5: There's a lot of proposals that have come forward to

324
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,120
Speaker 5: prevent members of Congress and profiting off of insider information.

325
00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:39,240
Speaker 5: A lot of them have collected a lot of dust.

326
00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:41,879
Speaker 5: The legislation that I introduced that we passed out of

327
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:45,439
Speaker 5: committee earlier today, we have commitments of from leadership that

328
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,199
Speaker 5: that's going to come to the House floor in the

329
00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,639
Speaker 5: near future. What it does is it prevents members from

330
00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:54,240
Speaker 5: profiting of insider information using three key steps. One, members

331
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,920
Speaker 5: of Congress after being elected won't be allowed to buy

332
00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,640
Speaker 5: new individual shares of stock. An individual that comes in

333
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 5: with shares in their portfolio, they may hold them, they

334
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,280
Speaker 5: may sell them, but if they sell them, they're required

335
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:07,240
Speaker 5: to provide seven.

336
00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,200
Speaker 3: Days advanced notice.

337
00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:11,639
Speaker 5: That prevents them from being able to profit off of

338
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:17,879
Speaker 5: inside information. It has real teeth associated with the bill.

339
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:21,639
Speaker 2: You've seen the reaction from some Democrats, including Alexandria Cossio Cortes.

340
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,960
Speaker 2: She says, the real bipartisan stock trading Band's bill is

341
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:28,320
Speaker 2: already ready. Do not buy this scam bill being put

342
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 2: forward by the wealthiest members of Congress. If Luna won't

343
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 2: move the discharge petition's text referring to the separate piece

344
00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:39,920
Speaker 2: of legislation, then we can start a clean one next week.

345
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:40,320
Speaker 3: She says.

346
00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:43,040
Speaker 2: The majority of members and Americans support a clean stock

347
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:46,720
Speaker 2: trading ban. We have the votes on it. Don't fold now. Congressman,

348
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:48,600
Speaker 2: how would you react to her?

349
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,440
Speaker 5: Well, I think it's disappointing that some members of Congress

350
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,920
Speaker 5: are walking away at the final hour. That said, I

351
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,120
Speaker 5: think when we bring it to the House floor, we're

352
00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 5: going to see overwhelming support for this common sense piece

353
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:03,879
Speaker 5: of legislation. We have strong bipartisan support and support from

354
00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:07,200
Speaker 5: members like Anna Paulina Luna, who spend a champion of

355
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,880
Speaker 5: this broader issue for a long time. This bill strikes

356
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:14,040
Speaker 5: the balance. I think it does two key and important things. One,

357
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,679
Speaker 5: it does prevent members from being able to profit off

358
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,600
Speaker 5: of insider information. But it also makes sure that individuals

359
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 5: who've had successful private sector careers are still able to

360
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:26,399
Speaker 5: come to Congress. I think it's important that we have

361
00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:28,960
Speaker 5: an array of members that come to Congress, but once

362
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,159
Speaker 5: they're here, I think the American people deserve to know

363
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,359
Speaker 5: their member of Congress is not day trading stocks. If

364
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:35,920
Speaker 5: you want to trade stocks, you can go to Wall

365
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,360
Speaker 5: Street if you're coming to Washington. I think these are

366
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 5: reasonable and appropriate and necessary restrictions to place upon members.

367
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:48,480
Speaker 2: And you think allowing members to keep their existing investments

368
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,960
Speaker 2: when they arrive in Congress does not bring an added

369
00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,520
Speaker 2: risk or any preferential treatment and committee hearings and so forth.

370
00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:57,440
Speaker 5: Well, I think the key here is that we want

371
00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 5: to make sure individuals are still able to come to

372
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,720
Speaker 5: Congress who've had successful private sector careers, or maybe people

373
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,639
Speaker 5: just later in their life who've saved up for retirement

374
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,080
Speaker 5: and made a decision to invest their retirement funds in

375
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:13,840
Speaker 5: individual stocks. What we want to do is prevent them

376
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 5: from trading to profit themselves utilizing information that they gained

377
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 5: when they came to Congress. The seven day Advanced Notice

378
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,479
Speaker 5: does that. In many ways, it mirrors what a lot

379
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 5: of publicly traded companies have for their c suite executives.

380
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 3: A ten B five to one plan.

381
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:33,200
Speaker 5: We did this and drafted this in a slight parallel

382
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,359
Speaker 5: to make sure that we're preventing even the appearance of

383
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 5: impropriety by members once they arrive here, and then we

384
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 5: put real teeth in the bill to enforce it.

385
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:45,399
Speaker 3: If this clears the committee, does it go to the floor?

386
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 5: Well, it cleared committee just a little bit ago, and

387
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 5: we have commitments from Speaker Johnson and Leader Skillies that

388
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,439
Speaker 5: they're ready to move this to the floor quickly. I

389
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 5: think as this builds momentum and comes to the floor

390
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,239
Speaker 5: in the weeks ahead, we're going to see more more

391
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,879
Speaker 5: people coming on board supporting this legislation because it makes sense,

392
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:08,119
Speaker 5: it's common sense, and it actually has real substance teeth

393
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 5: to enforce it.

394
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,920
Speaker 2: Congressman, I want to ask you, as a member of

395
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,159
Speaker 2: the Financial Services Committee as well, your thoughts on this

396
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:17,679
Speaker 2: investigation into j.

397
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:18,360
Speaker 3: Powell.

398
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 2: The market has given this a bit of a yawn

399
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,440
Speaker 2: so far, and it's unclear exactly where this is going.

400
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:26,679
Speaker 3: Do you worry that the chairman of the FED is

401
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 3: a criminal?

402
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 5: I don't have the confidential details of the investigation, but

403
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,160
Speaker 5: I can say two things. One, if anybody knows about lawfair.

404
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,119
Speaker 5: It's President Trump, and I think if he determines that

405
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 5: somebody inside his administration is engaged in a form of lawfare,

406
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 5: he's going to hold them accountable for that. I think

407
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 5: the second point is that I can say for sure

408
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 5: that in many ways this causes a distraction on our

409
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 5: ability to reform the FED. Chairman Powell was scheduled to

410
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 5: come before the House Financial Services Committee to face tough

411
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,120
Speaker 5: questions from both sides of the aisle, and I think

412
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 5: that that missed opportunity now that this investigation is taking place,

413
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,640
Speaker 5: is a missed opportunity for the American people. The sooner

414
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 5: the investigation resolves, the sooner we can get on with

415
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 5: the work of making real and substantive reforms of the

416
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 5: FED and asking the tough questions I think the American

417
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 5: people deserve to know the answer to.

418
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 2: I'm glad you mentioned that, Congressman, so as you understand,

419
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 2: there'll be no Humphrey Hawkins testimony this year.

420
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,360
Speaker 5: That is my understanding is now that there is an

421
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 5: open investigation at some level by the United States Department

422
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 5: of Justice. And again I don't have those confidential details,

423
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 5: but as reported that Chairman Powell would not be coming

424
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 5: before Committee to answer questions while an open criminal investigation

425
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 5: is ongoing. Again, the sooner that is resolved, the sooner

426
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,119
Speaker 5: we can get on with the work of real and

427
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 5: substantive oversight, because I do think there are real reforms

428
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 5: that we could make at the FED to the benefit

429
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 5: of the American people.

430
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,639
Speaker 2: Congressman style, I've got to ask you in our remaining

431
00:22:57,640 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 2: moment or two about crypto. We've talked about the CLI

432
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 2: already Act before, and there's a big moment about to

433
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,880
Speaker 2: take place here in the Senate. But questions, I guess

434
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 2: they're grinding through this two hundred and seventy eight page

435
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 2: Market Structure Bill because there are concerns about returns rewards.

436
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 2: I guess I should call them when it comes to

437
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 2: stable coin. Some the old line banks have restrictions. They

438
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,400
Speaker 2: can't do what, for instance, a coinbase could do in

439
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 2: that realm. Will there be a deal on this or

440
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 2: if the stable coin component came out of this bill,

441
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 2: would it still be able to pass.

442
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 5: Well, there's two key pieces of the legislation as we

443
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 5: as we all know, the stable coin legislation was passed

444
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 5: and signed into laws. The Senate now is navigating the

445
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 5: House pass Clarity Act, the market Structure legislation. There are

446
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 5: a handful of Senators that are trying to get a

447
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,919
Speaker 5: second bite at the apple to finalize the text that

448
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 5: was in Stable Cooin, which passed earlier, the oldest game

449
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 5: in the book. My hope is a Senate Banking goes

450
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 5: to mark up tomorrow that what we do is we

451
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 5: focus on moving through Clarity markets structure, which is so

452
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 5: absolutely essential, and hopefully any deal or resolution that is

453
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 5: needed is completed because getting market structure across the line

454
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 5: is so essential to make sure that digital asset companies

455
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 5: are investing in innovating in the United States rather than abroad.

456
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 3: Got it. Congressman, it's great to have you. Let's stay

457
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 3: in touch on this.

458
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 2: I know it's something you've been working on for a

459
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 2: long time and it's very important to our viewers and

460
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 2: listeners when we consider the impact on the crypto market.

461
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 2: Congressman Brian Style, the chairman of the Administration Committee, Republican

462
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 2: from Wisconsin, It's always great to see you. Let's assemble

463
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 2: our panel for their take on this conversation, much as

464
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 2: we did for Democrat Haley Stevens Adam Hodges back Bloomberg Politics,

465
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 2: contributor Our Democratic strategist Bully Pulpit International and more. Gillespie

466
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 2: Republican strategist Bluestack Strategies. Mara, what's your thought on this

467
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 2: stock trading band? We've been down this road a lot

468
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 2: of times, to the point of having one already on

469
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 2: the books that many people call unenforceable.

470
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 3: Will this one pass with the the floor?

471
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 7: I think it seems pretty common sense for a policy

472
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 7: position for members to message on now to actually follow

473
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 7: through and do as the law says. That seems to

474
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 7: be somehow a problem for some of them, which it

475
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 7: shouldn't be. I think as a voter, you don't want

476
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 7: the members of Congress who are making policy decisions that

477
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 7: affect the stock market to then benefit off of it.

478
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 7: That just seems corrupt, and so to enforce a law

479
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 7: that should be again, as I said, a common sense

480
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 7: piece of legulation certainly needs to have more teeth on it,

481
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 7: and I'm hopeful that members who say that they support

482
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 7: this will actually abide by it. I think that there

483
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 7: was a message other from Senator Mark Kelly who put

484
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 7: it pretty succinctly by saying, you know, talk is essentially

485
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 7: I'm paraphrasing here, talk is pretty cheap. You could just

486
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:47,199
Speaker 7: go ahead and stop trading stocks now, you know, you

487
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,120
Speaker 7: don't need to have this long place to be doing it,

488
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 7: because it's the right thing to do, essentially, So I

489
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 7: hope members who are supporting this are also keeping that

490
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 7: you know in mind.

491
00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, God knows self policing is another approach, Adam Or

492
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 2: do you share concerns that many Democrats have that incoming

493
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 2: lawmakers would not have to divest their holdings.

494
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,640
Speaker 11: Well, I think it's not just the divestment, but it's

495
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 11: also a couple other issues, right, the fact that members

496
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 11: of Congress's families aren't included in this, that seems like

497
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 11: a pretty big loophole to me. But also it seems

498
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 11: successfully focused on equities when we know members of Congress

499
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 11: are privy to insider information across a whole range of

500
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 11: financial instruments, right, not just equity. So that to me

501
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 11: feels like a bit of a gap. But I think

502
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 11: more was onto something here. There is a real distrust

503
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 11: among the American people that members of Congress go to

504
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 11: Washington and still fight for them, and this stock trading

505
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 11: ban or members being able to trade on insider information

506
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 11: just eats away at the credibility that members or Congress have,

507
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 11: and it's why you've seen part of the Congress's popularity

508
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 11: with the American people plummet. They think that you're out

509
00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 11: for on the tape, you're not really there to solve

510
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 11: their problems. They're going to be less likely to have

511
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:05,199
Speaker 11: confidence in Congress's ability to solve the big things that

512
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 11: actually affect their lives. So that's why I think, not

513
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 11: only from a messaging standpoint, but from an actual policy standpoint,

514
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 11: getting a real bill with teeth and transparency is a critical.

515
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 2: We learned something pretty interesting in that conversation with Brian's style,

516
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 2: confirming what we had heard earlier this morning from the

517
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 2: Chairman of Financial Services French Hill. J. Powell is expected

518
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:33,159
Speaker 2: now to not appear for his twice annual testimony on

519
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 2: Capitol Hill. Mara Gillespie the old Humphrey Hawkins testimony. If

520
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 2: you're old enough to remember when we called it, that

521
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 2: this is just one of the side effects, one of

522
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 2: the elements of fallout from this investigation. We've got less

523
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 2: than a minute. How important is it that this hearing

524
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 2: will not occur?

525
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 7: Well, I think it just shows you the severity of

526
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 7: the situation, and I'm curious to watch what happens with

527
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 7: you again. Having an independent federal res is so critical

528
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 7: to not only our economy but how our dollar does.

529
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 7: And I do think that not having this briefing that

530
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 7: members more or less rely on to keep a sense

531
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,239
Speaker 7: of what's going on, it just shows you that this

532
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 7: is a massive mistake by the Trump administration to target

533
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 7: Deram Powell like this mass interesting.

534
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 2: I can't imagine Jay Powell is going to miss that testimony.

535
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 2: Adam Hodge, Mora Gillespie, many thanks to both of you

536
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 2: for walking us through both of these interviews with Brian

537
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 2: Style and Haley Stevens.

538
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 3: We'll have much more ahead as we sit.

539
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 2: Down with Doug Redicker to consider the economic fallout of

540
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 2: all this song Bloomberg, Stay with us on Balance of Power.

541
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 3: We'll have much more coming up after this.

542
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

543
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

544
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

545
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

546
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 1: New York station.

547
00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 3: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleventh or.

548
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 2: The banks get earning season rolling. Charlie, thank you for

549
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 2: setting the table for our conversation with Nora Melinda, who

550
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 2: joins us as well from world headquarters in New York.

551
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Markets Correspondent, Nora, this is an interesting inflection point

552
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 2: with the markets. I know we're not having a lot

553
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 2: of fun today, but pretty darn close to their highs

554
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 2: of the session s and P five hundred just a

555
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 2: couple of days ago at an all time closing high.

556
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 2: How much at risk for a pullback are we as

557
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 2: we get further into earning season.

558
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 12: Well, it's interesting because this is the first back to

559
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 12: back losses for twenty twenty six if we think about

560
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 12: what we're on track for as we head toward today's close.

561
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 12: But a lot of the attention has been on the

562
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 12: banking sector, as we've been speaking about, of course, they

563
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 12: tend to mark the start of earning season. More broadly,

564
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 12: we've been hearing from JP Morgan. Just yesterday, we did

565
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 12: get some results out of Wells Fargo, Bank of America

566
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 12: City Group all reporting, and what we're really hearing is

567
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 12: a lot of spending. Really, that's what the focus has

568
00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 12: really been on about bank expenses of course, we know

569
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 12: we think about the fact that Wells Fargo it had

570
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 12: a profit miss, we also did have severance costs that

571
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 12: drove up expenses about six hundred and twelve million dollars

572
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 12: on severance payments alone, and we're going to be hearing

573
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 12: about more and more job cuts, not just exclusive to

574
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 12: Wells Fargo. So you're really seeing that being the broad

575
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 12: based focus that a lot of traders are dissecting right

576
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 12: now in this moment. But if you kind of flashback

577
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 12: about last year, in the year prior, we did see

578
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 12: double digit gains on the year for the KBW index,

579
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 12: which of course tracks a lot of those banking socks,

580
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 12: so it's also you were seeing a bit of rotation

581
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 12: into that group. So the question is whether or not

582
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 12: we're going to see some sort of pullback there as

583
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 12: we head further into twenty twenty six.

584
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 2: We get the big investment banks tomorrow, right, Goldman and

585
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley are those the exceptions here? Animal spirits and

586
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 2: IPO pipeline that looks better than it has in a

587
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 2: few years.

588
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 12: Well, we're certainly going to be keeping an eye on

589
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 12: the initial public offerings that come through this year. Of course,

590
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 12: if you just flash back to twenty twenty one. We

591
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 12: did see really really robust market when we think about

592
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 12: those that are debuting to the market. But there's going

593
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 12: to be a lot of attention and focus as we

594
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 12: really start to see some of those deals really trickling through,

595
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 12: especially as we think about those names that are debuting

596
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 12: to market. So there will certainly be a lot of

597
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 12: attention as we continue to parse these big names that

598
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 12: are coming out during this bank earning season.

599
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 2: All right, Nora, we thank you. We'll be thinking about

600
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 2: this tomorrow when we get the next batch. Normal inta

601
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 2: live in New York here on Balance of Power. Thanks

602
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 2: for spending part of your Wednesday with us. I'm Joe

603
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. As

604
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 2: we consider the messaging from President Trump, and we understand

605
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 2: he could be speaking to reporters a short time from now,

606
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 2: we may get a follow on what we heard yesterday

607
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 2: in Detroit, the affordability speech, when we heard not so

608
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 2: much about how to get to prices, but more about

609
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 2: the way the market works or shouldn't be working according

610
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 2: to the President of the United States. Consider the CPI

611
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 2: data we saw yesterday. He didn't talk as much about that.

612
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 2: Listen to what he said.

613
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 6: In the old days, when you had good numbers, interest

614
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 6: rates are good. When you had good numbers, the market

615
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 6: would go through the roof.

616
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 13: That's the way we're going to make it again.

617
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 3: That's the old fashioned way.

618
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 13: That's the right way.

619
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 6: Today, if you announce great numbers, they raise interest rates

620
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 6: to try and kill it, so you can.

621
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 3: Never really have the kind of rally you should have.

622
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 6: What happens and what we want, We're gonna have a

623
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 6: lot of great months, a lot of great quarters.

624
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 2: I want the market to go up, and I think

625
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 2: most people would agree. We're going to try to get

626
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 2: into the economic messaging and evolving message that's coming from

627
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 2: the administration on this week that we learned of a

628
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 2: criminal investigation into the FED share and of course saw

629
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 2: those CPI numbers. With a good friend of the program,

630
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 2: Doug Redticker, is back with US, founder managing partner of

631
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 2: International Capital Strategies and former member of the executive board

632
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 2: at the IMF.

633
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 3: Mister Rudicker, welcome back. It's great to see you.

634
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 13: Thanks.

635
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 2: I hope your year is starting out well. The President

636
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 2: doesn't like the way it's going here for the markets,

637
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 2: but I don't know how far you need to go

638
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 2: back to a world in which a hot economy resulted

639
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 2: in lower interest rates.

640
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 14: I think what we saw President Trump say is I

641
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 14: want growth. I don't believe that there's a connection between

642
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 14: growth and interest rates and inflation that most economists would

643
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 14: say is kind of a starting point. So if you

644
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 14: take away that limitation, then in the President's mind, lower

645
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 14: interest rates, faster growth good for everyone. Markets respond everything fine.

646
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 14: I'm not sure the world actually works that way, and

647
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 14: I don't think the markets necessarily think that's how it

648
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 14: all works. But that's I think what the president's thesis.

649
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 3: Is, or ever have.

650
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 2: Stephen Myron today says we still should have one hundred

651
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 2: and fifty basis points and cuts this year. What would

652
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 2: happen to the economy if the Fed actually did that?

653
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 2: Would we have the five percent growth the president says?

654
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 2: Would we have ten percent inflation?

655
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 14: I mean, I think that's an unknowable question because I

656
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 14: don't think the FOMC would ever go for that. Yes, right,

657
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 14: they are reasonable seasoned people from right, left and center

658
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 14: the political spectrum, but they're all rational actors that are

659
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 14: not going to do.

660
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 13: Something like that.

661
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 14: If you end up in a world in which we

662
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 14: are dropping interest rates. The FED is dropping interest rates

663
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 14: by one hundred and fifty basis points. That presumably means

664
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 14: we've got a big problem, like a deep recession. Right,

665
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 14: Not that happy days are here again. Let's just add

666
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 14: fuel to the fire because fire is good. Fire sometimes

667
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 14: burn things down too well, that is very true.

668
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 2: We can talk about creative destruction on another day, Doug Redicker.

669
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 2: But tell me about this idea of J. Powell facing

670
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 2: a criminal investigation and no longer able to deliver his

671
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 2: semi annual testimony before Congress.

672
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:37,399
Speaker 3: Who's that going to help?

673
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 14: Yeah, that's a really interesting dynamic. I'm not sure that

674
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 14: the US Attorney for the District of Columbia fully appreciated

675
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 14: when she apparently moved ahead with this. I think this

676
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 14: story that's really interesting is number one, the Republican Democrat

677
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 14: establishment and global support that Chairman Powell has received. I mean,

678
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 14: it's been really quite extraordinary to see the almost universal

679
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:03,120
Speaker 14: support he is received. I don't know if the US

680
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 14: government decision, and I say it that way because we

681
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 14: don't know who actually made the decision really contemplated this response,

682
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 14: nor what your question suggests, which is now Shaman Palell says,

683
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 14: I'm sorry, I can't comply with my Humphrey Hawkins requirements

684
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 14: because I'm under an investigation.

685
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:18,399
Speaker 10: Wow.

686
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,279
Speaker 14: So there are all of these. You know, if you

687
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 14: don't have a formal process, whether it's for this decision

688
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 14: or any other, the unintended consequences start to mount up.

689
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 13: And this is just one of them.

690
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 14: But it does mean you've got a FED chair who's

691
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 14: going to be less transparent, not more.

692
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 2: Well, I know the President doesn't like him. He called

693
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 2: him a jerk yesterday. He wants lower interest rates. But

694
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 2: a lot of people saw that CPI report yesterday and see,

695
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 2: do you know what this proves that J.

696
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,360
Speaker 3: Powell has been on the right side of history.

697
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 13: Again. I want to say it's J.

698
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 3: Palell and the FOK Sarah.

699
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 14: Because although the chairman obviously has the power of the

700
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,359
Speaker 14: chairmanship the committee itself, I mean, there have been one

701
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 14: or two percents, fair enough, but in general, this has

702
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 14: been a committee in FOMC that has been broadly supportive

703
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,879
Speaker 14: of the direction Powell has been taking the FED, and

704
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 14: for good reason. I think, actually, if you looked at

705
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 14: this objectively, then you've got inflation that is not where

706
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 14: they want it to be, but coming down it's plateaued

707
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 14: a bit, So they're a little bit concerned. Unemployment is

708
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 14: a concern. It's a real concern, not based on interest

709
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 14: rate policy, but based on the productivity gains and the

710
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 14: unemployment concerns largely out of AI and the other technological advancements.

711
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 14: So the FED is saying, we don't know, but we

712
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 14: have a dual mandate. We're going to take that seriously

713
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 14: and we're going to act accordingly. And as you say, the

714
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 14: figures we've seen so far have kind of supported the Fed's.

715
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 2: Policies well, so we can add even more uncertainty. The

716
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 2: reason we first called you a couple of days ago

717
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 2: to join us today is there was a decision day

718
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 2: for the Supreme Court and it was expected that today

719
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 2: might be decision day on the president's tariff regime. We

720
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 2: still don't know what's going to happen to these so

721
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 2: called reciprocal tariffs. The FED doesn't either, so in the end,

722
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 2: still we can't really draw a real conclusion, right.

723
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 14: Yeah, And I think that a lot of us think

724
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 14: that the tariffs are illegal under a EPA, but we

725
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 14: don't know what the rationale of the Court will ultimately decide,

726
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 14: so they could split the baby and you could have

727
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,720
Speaker 14: something that is on one side ruling that they're unconstitutional,

728
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 14: but the refunds become a more tortured process could take years.

729
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 14: We just don't know a lot of what is and

730
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 14: isn't going to be in an ultimate decision by the court.

731
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 14: And if we don't know it, I don't think the

732
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 14: Fed has any greater insight than we all do.

733
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 13: So you're right, this is a huge amount of money.

734
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 14: It's a huge policy that impacts every aspect of the

735
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 14: American economy, fiscal, consumer spending, corporate earnings.

736
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 13: And we just don't know.

737
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 2: Well, there are a lot of lawyers who are about

738
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 2: to make a lot of money. A thousand companies have

739
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 2: preemptively sued the administration, famously Costco, but there are many others.

740
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:51,359
Speaker 3: And you wonder if there's no refund.

741
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 2: Mechanism, if that will all just simply ride on the

742
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 2: lawsuits from companies against the White House.

743
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 14: Well, it's a thousand big importers, but there are probably

744
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 14: millions of actual claims, and so what you've got are

745
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 14: a number of the bigger importers, Costco and others that

746
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:12,720
Speaker 14: preemptively file the claim to protect their rights under certain

747
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 14: possible rulings. So there are certain scenarios where if you filed,

748
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:17,959
Speaker 14: you get the claim, but if you didn't, you didn't,

749
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 14: So what are you gonna do. You get to hire

750
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:22,320
Speaker 14: a lawyer to file a claim. So it's very uncertain.

751
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:23,880
Speaker 14: But I want to just throw one other thing in

752
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 14: on the tariffs, which is in the world of affordability,

753
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 14: where the midterms were in January, but we're already talking

754
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 14: about the midterms, and affordability is the mantra that everybody's

755
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:33,280
Speaker 14: talking about.

756
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 13: There is a scenario.

757
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 14: I'm not saying this is what Trump is going to do,

758
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:39,280
Speaker 14: but there are some people who say, if the tariffs

759
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 14: are rolled back, then will he go for the more

760
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 14: aggressive follow on statutory authorities to keep those tariffs on

761
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,759
Speaker 14: or will he kick the can a bit because if

762
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 14: you remove tariffs, yes, you actually by definition lower prices,

763
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 14: and so actually would that not be in his political

764
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:02,319
Speaker 14: interests even if he's tariff fan. Yes, I don't think

765
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:03,920
Speaker 14: he's going to do this, but I'm throwing it out

766
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 14: there that who knows.

767
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 13: Even if he goes.

768
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:07,879
Speaker 14: Section one twenty two, which means he has one hundred

769
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 14: and fifty days. At the end of the one hundred

770
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 14: and fifty days, does he really continue down an aggressive

771
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 14: tariff path or does he back off, bring some price

772
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 14: pressures down and hope it helps the Republicans in the midterm.

773
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 2: Well, you're asking all the right questions here, because there

774
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 2: could be a very lengthy investigation for any number of

775
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 2: justifications that might coincide after the midterms. Right, and prices

776
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 2: are somehow lower between now and then. By the way,

777
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 2: producer James telling us Polymarket now has a thirty three

778
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 2: percent chance s got to rules in favor of President

779
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 2: Trump on tariffs, up ten percent this week. This idea

780
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 2: that more time means favorable to Trump, You don't buy it.

781
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 14: I don't, and I don't because the court is already

782
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 14: ruling on a very expedited basis. So we had always

783
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 14: said it'll probably be January or February. Yep, everybody got

784
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 14: all excited and thought it was going to be the

785
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 14: first week of January. Now the second week of January.

786
00:39:57,760 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 14: We're sticking to where we were. It was going to

787
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,440
Speaker 14: always be not only early sorry, January February.

788
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 3: Okay, if it rolls off.

789
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,799
Speaker 13: If it doesn't get decided by February.

790
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 14: Then I do think we can read into it that

791
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 14: there is a more a greater likelihood it'll be a

792
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:15,719
Speaker 14: very complicated decision that doesn't necessarily go against the administration

793
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 14: if they kick it to June.

794
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,280
Speaker 13: But I don't think that's going to be what happens.

795
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 2: Boy, a lot of reporters are going to be chewing

796
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 2: their fingernails between now and June. Take me to Davos

797
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 2: next week, No, I mean, really, the president is going

798
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 2: to try to deliver this domestic message on affordability before

799
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 2: a skeptical crowd. I think we can admit at Davos

800
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 2: with tariffs and Greenland in the air, never mind Ukraine,

801
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:40,320
Speaker 2: how does this land?

802
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 8: So?

803
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 14: I think the question will be does he do what

804
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 14: he did in Pennsylvania, which is announce a big speech

805
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:51,359
Speaker 14: on affordability and then give very little time to affordability

806
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 14: and just go off on a riff. I don't know

807
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 14: why he would pick the Davos Forum to give a

808
00:40:56,560 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 14: speech on American domestic affordability. Will be how much does

809
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 14: he actually stick to the script or with the great

810
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:06,360
Speaker 14: and the good of the international community it's sitting in

811
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 14: the audience. Is he going to just feel compelled to

812
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 14: deviate too, Greenland, to NATO, to whatever strikes him, which

813
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 14: I think is probably more likely going to be the outcome.

814
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 14: But I think if he sticks to the script, which

815
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 14: would be rare for him, it's probably a missed opportunity

816
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:25,839
Speaker 14: because the audience won't be focused on it, and it's

817
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,240
Speaker 14: the wrong audience to deliver that message anyways.

818
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 3: Yes, that's so.

819
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 14: I'm not sure who's advising him on it, and I

820
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 14: think he probably will deviate from it.

821
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 3: Fascinating. We've only got thirty seconds left.

822
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 2: Are there going to be deals made at Davos or

823
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 2: is this just a chance for us to all get

824
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 2: together and talk about big ideas.

825
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 14: I think this is going to be a rather dysfunctional

826
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 14: Davos because there'll be people who say it's all about Trump,

827
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:50,839
Speaker 14: then there'll be people who say it's not all about Trump.

828
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:52,959
Speaker 14: Then there'll be people who know it's all about Trump,

829
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 14: but will argue that it's not about Trump, and so

830
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 14: it's really going to be all about Trump. But the

831
00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 14: last thing I say is whatever the conventional wisdom and

832
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 14: Davos is almost always wrong.

833
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 2: Fascinating. We got to do this way more often. The

834
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,800
Speaker 2: Great Doug Reddicker I'm delighted you came over a founder

835
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 2: managing partner, International Capital Strategies.

836
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

837
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

838
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:21,239
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

839
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

840
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:26,320
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.