1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:17,759 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 2 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:20,920 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. 3 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe. 4 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 3: Wasn't thal Joe? 5 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: In preparation for this conversation today, I sat down this morning. 6 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 2: We're recording on what is it? November twentieth, that's correct, 7 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:37,520 Speaker 2: and I typed US China into Google news results. Here's 8 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 2: a selection of headlines. US Commission says China could invade 9 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: Taiwan with little advance warning, China leveraged India Pakistan conflict 10 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 2: to trial and tout its military strengths, Pacific Islands on 11 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 2: frontline of future US China war, and then finally the 12 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 2: US China Chip War. Are we ready? 13 00:00:56,880 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 3: I was just gonna say, I feel like the Chips 14 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 3: in particular, or every other day, there's a different headline 15 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 3: about what's allowed or what's not. But to your point, 16 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 3: this is the story. I mean, there's Ai, there's a 17 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 3: couple other things, and then the US China relationship. 18 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,760 Speaker 2: Absolutely, and it seems almost inevitable at this point that 19 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:16,759 Speaker 2: we talk about US and China in competitive terms, right 20 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 2: and also in militaristic terms. And this has been going 21 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 2: on for as long as I can remember. 22 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 4: At this point, it's building up right, Like really in 23 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 4: the last decade. You know, when we were younger, thought oh, 24 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,160 Speaker 4: we're just going to trade together and maybe they'll even 25 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 4: liberalize it become a liberal democracy. 26 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 3: One day, it didn't happen. But in the last ten 27 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 3: years or nine years, it's really picked up. How much 28 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 3: people are framing this in military terms. 29 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:42,959 Speaker 2: Well, I wrote that paper back in like two thousand 30 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 2: and two that China was going to invade Taiwan by 31 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 2: the two thousand and eight Olympics. So my view of 32 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 2: this might be different to yours. My view has also 33 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 2: been proven to be incredibly incorrect, So I'll leave it 34 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 2: at that. But you know, we recorded this episode with 35 00:01:57,160 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 2: Henry Wang a few months ago where we were talking 36 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 2: about US China relations and he mentioned one person, Yeah, 37 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 2: and he said, you got to get him on the show. 38 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 2: You got to get his perspective on this view of 39 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 2: US China competition and are we doomed destined to end 40 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:15,640 Speaker 2: up in a military conflict. So here we are, We're 41 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 2: going to do it. 42 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 3: We're in his office. Let's do it, all right. 43 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 2: We have, in fact, the perfect guest. We have Professor 44 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 2: Graham Allison. He is the Douglas Dylan Professor of Government 45 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 2: at Harvard University, and he, of course is the one 46 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 2: who coined the term the Thucidities trap to describe the 47 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 2: potential outcome of US China competition. So really the perfect 48 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 2: person to speak to about this, Professor Allison, thank you 49 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 2: so much for coming on all thoughts. 50 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:42,799 Speaker 5: Thank you so much for having me. 51 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 2: So I mentioned the thucidities trap, and I think a 52 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 2: lot of listeners will know what it is, and probably 53 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 2: a substantial portion of our listeners are really into ancient 54 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:55,959 Speaker 2: Greek history and know all about it. But when you 55 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:59,399 Speaker 2: first came up with that term, was there a light 56 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,679 Speaker 2: bulb moment in your head where you thought like, this 57 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 2: is the way to characterize the future of US and 58 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 2: China relations. 59 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 5: So thank you and answers. Yes, I think I had 60 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 5: actually speaker Kevin McCarthy here at the Forum event a 61 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 5: couple of nights ago, and he was reminding me that 62 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 5: when he was trying to figure out what was happening 63 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 5: with China, he called me up and he said, would 64 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,359 Speaker 5: you give me a tutorial? I said, of course, I'd 65 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 5: be under too. We've started this conversation and his first 66 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 5: question when we began was what the hell is going 67 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 5: on here? 68 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 2: That should have been my first question. 69 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 3: Good question. 70 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 5: Basically here, every day and every way, somehow or another, 71 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 5: there's a story about China, threat, China, competition, China, China, 72 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 5: and China, I said in a word, if you're trying 73 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 5: to capture this from a phrase, this is a classic 74 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 5: lucidity and rivalry. So China is a meteoric rising power 75 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 5: never before in history as a nation risen so far, 76 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 5: so fast, on so many different dimensions. A country that 77 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 5: we couldn't even find in our review mirror at the 78 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 5: beginning of the century because it was so far behind us. 79 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,280 Speaker 5: It's very hard to find in our rearview mirror today 80 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 5: because it's either beside us or ahead of us if 81 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 5: you think about arrival. So a meteoric rising power. The 82 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 5: US is a colossal ruling power. Never since Rome has 83 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:33,919 Speaker 5: a country been so powerful in so many different dimensions 84 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 5: for such an amazing period of time. In fact, I 85 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 5: just have a peace. They'll be in foreign affairs next week. 86 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:45,280 Speaker 5: On the longest piece, this is the longest period without 87 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 5: great power war since Rome eighty years. We celebrated in 88 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 5: September without great power war. Historically, every generation or two, 89 00:04:56,560 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 5: for the last few thousand years, there's been great power 90 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 5: or wars, so amazing, colossal ruling power who's not only 91 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 5: been good for itself, but actually good for an international piece. 92 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,919 Speaker 5: So Thucydides, when he was trying to understand what the 93 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 5: hell was going on in ancient Greece, wrote about what 94 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 5: he called the rise of Athens and the fear that 95 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 5: this instilled in Sparta that made war virtually inevitable. So 96 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 5: think about a seesaw on a kid's playground, and one 97 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 5: heaviest on the one end and one lightest on the other. 98 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 5: And the heavy is kind of in control. I can 99 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 5: jiggle you if I want to, blah blah blah. Now, 100 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 5: all of a sudden, the light starts heavy weight, and 101 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 5: he gets a little bigger and a little bigger. Pretty 102 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 5: soon I'm feeling Wait a minute, I maybe I have 103 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:52,679 Speaker 5: only one foot on the ground. Maybe maybe I'm feeling less. 104 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 5: So when you see this tilt of the sea saw 105 00:05:56,720 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 5: and the tectonics of power, this concretes a discombobulation for 106 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 5: both parties. The ruling party thinks, hey, wait a minute, 107 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 5: what's happening here? I used to look down on you. 108 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 5: Now you're looking me straight on. And maybe even so 109 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 5: my perspective. I used to be able to push a 110 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 5: button and things would happen, and now I push the 111 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 5: button and the things don't happen because my relative power 112 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:29,840 Speaker 5: has changed. Psychologically, I'm accustomed to being at the top 113 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 5: of every backing order Americans. My wife says about me, wa, 114 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 5: wash the cosmetics off my chest, and it says, USA 115 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 5: is number one. Number one is who we as our identity. 116 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 5: If you do the television, they scan you know whatever 117 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 5: people hold up there, number one for their team, whatever, whatever. 118 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 5: So the idea that somehow somebody is challenging my position, 119 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 5: as I used to be the biggest economy. Now I've 120 00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 5: an economy. I used to be the main trading part 121 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 5: of it. Yet now I used to be everything that 122 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 5: was made was made by us, that was made. So 123 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 5: as this happens, historically, we've seen over and over this 124 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 5: discombobulation that leads into lots of misperceptions, miscalculations, misjudgments, and unfortunately, 125 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 5: in about three quarters of the cases, this sends up 126 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 5: in war, often a catastrophic war. So sorry, that's a 127 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 5: long version. 128 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 3: Of that's perfect. 129 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:31,239 Speaker 2: Sparta ended up attacking Athens, right because they were scared 130 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 2: of the rising power. 131 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 5: Well, basically what happened, I mean, it's a little more 132 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 5: complicated than that, but yes, basically, as the discombobulation was 133 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 5: occurring and Athens became more and more full of itself, 134 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 5: as the rising power always does, and the ruling power 135 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 5: become more and more fearful, then it turns out that 136 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 5: some third party activity in Corsera that wouldn't have mattered 137 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 5: to the two parties otherwise. So something that's otherwise incidental 138 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 5: or easily managed with throwing a layer of misperceptions and 139 00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 5: miscalculations and you get there. Another wonderful example, I think 140 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 5: the one that's closest to what we're now seeing is 141 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 5: the period from nineteen hundred to nineteen fourteen that led 142 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 5: to World War One. So if you ask yourself, how 143 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 5: in the world could I assassinate an archsdooke in Sarajevo, 144 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 5: which was so inconsequential that it didn't even make the 145 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 5: front page of the newspapers in New York. Within five weeks, 146 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 5: all of Europe was caught up in a war. And 147 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 5: when you looked afterwards, people said how did you guys 148 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 5: let this happen? And as Beulau, the chancellor for Germany, 149 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 5: he said, ah, if we only knew. 150 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 3: So, the rising distrust and the anxiety about status position, 151 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 3: it's not that it directly provides the impetus for war 152 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 3: per se, but that it creates the conditions such that 153 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 3: reserve as an incident or an and that oh, because 154 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 3: there's no trust, because there's all this concern. It can 155 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 3: be that random thing, an large duke, some people in 156 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 3: a third city. 157 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 5: Something happens in Taiwan, something happens here, something happens here. 158 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 5: And because as this seesaw is shifting as the rising 159 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 5: and ruling, the technonics or moving, the mis perceptions or magnified, 160 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 5: and miscalculations multiply, and the impact of third party incidents 161 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 5: or accents amplified, so things that would otherwise be manageable. 162 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 5: This is just nonsense. Let's deal with this problem. All 163 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 5: of a sudden, I see it as you doing something, 164 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 5: and then when I see that you see something, one 165 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 5: thing leads to the other. So if you look in 166 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:53,439 Speaker 5: the case of Athens and Sparta Corran a city state, 167 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,599 Speaker 5: that neither of them cared much for it. In particular 168 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 5: trusted at all gets involved with Era, which is now Corfu, 169 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 5: and there's a fear that they're going to have a 170 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 5: navy that will be able to challenge Athens, so that 171 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 5: the Athenians get more excited. So one thing leads to 172 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 5: the other. You get kind of a vicious cycle of 173 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 5: misperceptions and miscalculations that then all of a sudden, certain happens, 174 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 5: and once they something happens, oh my god, I have 175 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 5: to react that action and reaction, and there you get 176 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 5: to somewhere you don't want to go. 177 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 2: We don't talk about ancient Greek history enough on this podcast, 178 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 2: in my opinion, but I do need to bring it 179 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:33,440 Speaker 2: up to date. So you know, some people would argue 180 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 2: that China has been on the rise for decades now, 181 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,560 Speaker 2: and I'm sure people have different starting points, but let's 182 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 2: say since the nineteen nineties, and you know, now thirty 183 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 2: or forty years later, we're at a point where there 184 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 2: is competitive rivalry both militarily and economically, but we haven't 185 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 2: had war so far. As you just noted, we've had 186 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,160 Speaker 2: eighty years of peace between the great powers, which is 187 00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 2: our good news story of the day. But why is 188 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 2: that and doesn't mean that you need to reconsider the 189 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:04,479 Speaker 2: throcidian framework. 190 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 5: Well, again, Thucydites is very thoughtful about this. He didn't 191 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 5: say that there was a specific moment or point in 192 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 5: the story. And in the book that I wrote called 193 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:19,839 Speaker 5: a Destined for work in the US and China, Escape 194 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 5: through Cynities Trap, I looked at the last five hundred 195 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 5: years and find sixteen incidents or sixteen cases in which 196 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:32,680 Speaker 5: a rising power seriously threatens a ruling power, the World 197 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 5: War One being one interesting and dramatic example. So in these, 198 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:42,440 Speaker 5: sometimes before the rising power has actually overtaken the ruling power, 199 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 5: something happens sometimes after. So it's that is not about 200 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 5: some specific moment in time. It's about a dynamic that 201 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 5: then when something happens, something happens. So if you look, 202 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 5: for example, at the Cold War, which is one of 203 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:04,440 Speaker 5: the so in the sixteen cases, twelve in the war. 204 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:08,560 Speaker 5: If you want to model for war, think World War One, 205 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 5: but four in the No War. So that's good news, 206 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 5: one of which is called Cold War. So it's called war, 207 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:19,079 Speaker 5: but it's not war. It's war on every four bullets, 208 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 5: bombs and bullets. So in the Cold War we had 209 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:26,680 Speaker 5: several very very close calls, for example, the Cuban missile crisis, 210 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:28,680 Speaker 5: about which I read a book, and that if you 211 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 5: look at that chart over there on the wall, that's 212 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:38,559 Speaker 5: Kennedy's doodles during the Cuban missile crisis. Thinking about the 213 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 5: choices that he's making, he thought that was between a 214 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 5: one and three and even chance this was end in 215 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 5: the nuclear war. That it ended in a nuclear war, 216 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 5: we would have had a couple hundred million people killed. 217 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 5: We wouldn't be doing this interview. So it could could 218 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 5: he could have happened in that insence, but it didn't. 219 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 5: How did it come not to happen? First, there was 220 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 5: some brilliant state craft, for example, to get out of 221 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 5: it so that they could otherwise there was a great, 222 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 5: great glob of grace and good fortune, I say, But 223 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 5: also there was a rivalry that went on for long 224 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,839 Speaker 5: enough in which one of the parties, the Soviet Union, 225 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 5: ended up holloway being hollowed out by the contradictions that 226 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 5: were part of a Soviet command and control system turned 227 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 5: out not to be commitative of the lower So that's 228 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 5: how one story ended that successfully, and that could be 229 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 5: a possible analog for the current US China rivalry, and 230 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 5: which Chinese would say, we see in your divisions, in 231 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 5: your society and in your come up decadent of you know, whatever, whatever, whatever, 232 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 5: maybe you'll be the one. 233 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:49,119 Speaker 3: They perceived us as the Soviet Union. 234 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 5: And we many Americans trying to tell our side of 235 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 5: the story, say well, they're going to be sort of 236 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 5: like the Soviet Union because actually they were coming us 237 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 5: and blah blah blah. 238 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 3: You know, obviously we look to the US Soviet relationship 239 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 3: for perhaps lessons from history. China feels in many ways 240 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:24,800 Speaker 3: very different from the Soviet Union in some ways with 241 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 3: respect to foreign policy, you know, like I read Henry 242 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 3: doctor Kissinger's book on China, and he starts off by 243 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 3: pointing out that China has never never been particularly interested 244 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 3: in people beyond its borders, outside of the territorial questions, say, 245 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 3: related to Taiwan or Tibet, and even still today, it's 246 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 3: not obvious that China's interest with the rest of the 247 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 3: world expands much beyond the goods trade at all. Does 248 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 3: that affect your calculation the sort of internal when you 249 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 3: think about these statistics, the fact that yes, there are 250 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 3: these patterns of history, but also countries are different internally 251 00:14:57,880 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 3: and may have different motivations. 252 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 5: Absolutely, I mean a can you can take it at 253 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:06,080 Speaker 5: the kind of level one, level two, level three, level four. Obviously, 254 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 5: each of the country's story is different. If you look 255 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 5: at Portugal and Spain, which is the first of these 256 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 5: sixteen cases, back of the time of Christopher Columbus, they 257 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 5: both were Catholic and there was a pope, and so 258 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 5: when the conflict got to the edge of a conflict, 259 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 5: the pupe said, I got a solution. Here's a line. 260 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 5: I'm gonna draw the line down here. This side is 261 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 5: going to be Portuguese, this side is going to be Spanish. 262 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 5: Then that's why people in Brazil speak Portuguese, because they 263 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 5: got on the Portuguese side of the line. But you 264 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 5: had a situation which you had a kind of a 265 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 5: ruling guru who could make a declaration. Unfortunately there's no 266 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 5: such person today to do that. But looking at the 267 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 5: Chinese cases, as you say, China's history has been one 268 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 5: in which historically it is wanted to be and thinks 269 00:15:56,080 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 5: of itself as the sun around which everything else rotates. 270 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 5: They've got a line about there can be only one, 271 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 5: you know, tiger in. 272 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 2: The valley, but It's literally called the Middle Kingdom right 273 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 2: in the Middle Country, and. 274 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 5: The Middle Kingdom was the meaning of it was the 275 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 5: middle between the Earth and heaven. So we're the We're 276 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 5: the that. But not about the Soviet not like the 277 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 5: Soviet Union wanting to convert everyone. 278 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 3: Right, China's never had a come intern. 279 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 5: Fort and they haven't been trying to take over territories 280 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 5: of other parties other than just you know, they're in 281 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 5: their periphery and they haven't had an aspiration. Enry actually 282 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 5: has a good line about this. He said, you know 283 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 5: that the Americans and Chinese are very similar in that 284 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 5: both of us have a superiority complex, but only one 285 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 5: of us is a missionary. The other one doesn't think 286 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 5: people are even good enough to be Chinese, so they'd 287 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 5: like for you to mimic their behavior. But they don't 288 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 5: think you're ever going to become Chinese, and they don't 289 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 5: wanted you to become Chinese. I want you to rule 290 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 5: your country the way Chinese do. They want to They 291 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:04,639 Speaker 5: want you to have respect, yeah, and they want to 292 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 5: be in their own domain. I would say that's roughly right. 293 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 5: Leak On you was the best, the most insightful China 294 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:15,400 Speaker 5: Watcher and she China Watcher was leak On You. Leak 295 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 5: On You was the founder and father builder of Singapore, 296 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 5: and he was one of my mentors. I wrote a 297 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:26,679 Speaker 5: little book about him. And uh Hey said about China, 298 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 5: this is going to be the biggest player in the 299 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 5: history of the world. It's going to be very uncomfortable 300 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 5: for Americans to get used to it, especially the idea 301 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 5: that some smaller yellow ration. There's a racial element in 302 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:44,399 Speaker 5: the history and orever, he said. But he believed that 303 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 5: it was possible that the US in China could find 304 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:51,400 Speaker 5: the way if they were smart, to share the Pacific 305 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 5: in the twenty first century. And I would say that, 306 00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 5: you know, that would be the good news home. 307 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 2: So both Joe and I did international relations, I guess 308 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 2: in the early two thousand, yeah, around that time, and 309 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 2: a line of thinking back then was that globalization was 310 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 2: going to save us all and we were going to 311 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 2: have our economies so enmeshed with each other that the 312 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 2: idea of going to war or military competition would just 313 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 2: be completely insane because it would mean mutual self destruction, 314 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 2: not with bombs, but with I don't know, consumer goods 315 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 2: like La booboos. So I had to throw that in there. 316 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:30,640 Speaker 2: Do people still believe that, because on the other hand, 317 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:33,359 Speaker 2: it seems like the central conflict between the US and 318 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 2: China right now is economic. But on the other hand, 319 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 2: we haven't had outright military war. 320 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 5: So good to remember how the cycles go. And I 321 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 5: think I remember that period since I've been teaching for 322 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 5: a long time. The theory that somehow economic entanglement would 323 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 5: prevent war was a famous theory in the beginning of 324 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:01,440 Speaker 5: the twentieth century as well. So the biggest, the best 325 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:05,119 Speaker 5: selling book in the decade before World War One was 326 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:08,640 Speaker 5: Norman Angels book I write about this actually in Destined 327 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 5: for War, called the Great Illusion, and he said, there's 328 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:16,639 Speaker 5: not going to be wars anymore because the cost of 329 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:21,880 Speaker 5: war will so greatly exceed the benefits that the winner 330 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:26,400 Speaker 5: will be a loser. And if you asked Andrew Carnegie, 331 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 5: who was the richest man of the time in nineteen fourteen, 332 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:36,479 Speaker 5: for the Christmas nineteen thirteen fourteen, he sent out Christmas 333 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 5: cards to his favorite four thousand people, who included the 334 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 5: pins of every state, and he said, there's not going 335 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 5: to be war anymore because now we have this. 336 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 2: You know, Merry Christmas, No more war. 337 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:51,920 Speaker 5: Exactly, and he said, and I have built the peace 338 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 5: Palace at the Hague where people can go and resolve disputes, 339 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,199 Speaker 5: So it's not going to be necessary to have the 340 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 5: fighter war. I would say that's a grand delusion. It 341 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 5: turned out out to be right. Now, what's right and 342 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 5: wrong about it? Interesting? So is it true that the 343 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 5: US and China, both financially and in terms of supply 344 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 5: chains and in terms of economy are so entangled today 345 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 5: that this should provide some counterbalance to the geopolitical and 346 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:31,199 Speaker 5: military impulses for confrontation. Absolutely right. And this is what 347 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 5: you can see in Trump and She at their recent summit. 348 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 5: I mean, of the people in the current foreign policy world, 349 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 5: Trump is a far, far, far outlier in this respect, 350 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 5: in that he thinks it's possible that the US in 351 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,640 Speaker 5: China can actually both be involved in such a kind 352 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 5: of economic relationship that will be beneficial to both parties. Now, 353 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 5: partly that's because I think he's so some of the 354 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 5: people who are pessimistic about this have kind of given 355 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,880 Speaker 5: up on American competitiveness and thinking, you know, maybe we're 356 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 5: not as competitive. Trump has I think a romantic view 357 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,520 Speaker 5: that the US can win, you know, every race. But 358 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 5: on the other hand, he also has a businessman's view 359 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:22,439 Speaker 5: that's possible for people to be entangled in ways in 360 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,920 Speaker 5: which they can be fierce rivals and can also be 361 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 5: somehow cooperating. So I've been stretching for silver linings because 362 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,880 Speaker 5: there's as many, many, many things. Nothing like about true, 363 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:39,439 Speaker 5: but I think it's conceivable if you look look at 364 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 5: see what he said after the summit, when he tweeted 365 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 5: at first he said it was great success for us 366 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 5: on a ten point scale, that was a twelve. Actually 367 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,639 Speaker 5: what he understood was he came up against somebody who's 368 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 5: as strong and has as many cards as he does, 369 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:59,080 Speaker 5: so you have to find a way to cooperate with him. 370 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 5: But if that's true, if the both of the parties 371 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 5: are searching for ways to cooperate, could this be a 372 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 5: stabilizer in what would otherwise be I would say yes 373 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 5: it could, and could it just end up in some 374 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 5: kind of a a So Henry, who was my other 375 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:22,920 Speaker 5: most mentor about China, kept saying, Henry Kissinger, sorry that 376 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 5: we need a new strategic concept that's that's comprehensive enough 377 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 5: to encompass the fact that we're going to be the 378 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:35,360 Speaker 5: fiercest doucinity in rivals at all times, each of us 379 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,479 Speaker 5: really really does want to be number one, and it 380 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,040 Speaker 5: matters in many many But at the same time we're 381 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 5: so entangled that we require cooperation or the other for 382 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 5: our own survival. So this sounds like a contradiction. It is, 383 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 5: But we managed a version of that a little bit 384 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 5: in the Cold War. This one's much more complicated because 385 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,879 Speaker 5: the Soviet Union was never really a serious economic rival. 386 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 5: By the time you go to high codeor in the 387 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 5: Chinese case, China is media. But is there something in 388 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 5: that space? I think there is. How did this might be? 389 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 3: So you mentioned that like compared to many others, Trump 390 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 3: is a US unto optimist and maybe even a dove 391 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 3: venu measures, which is a little weird given that, But 392 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,200 Speaker 3: it clearly is how did this happen? Like how did 393 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 3: so much of the foreign policy elite in the US 394 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 3: over the last several years, it feel like, becomes so 395 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 3: doumor jaded, pessimistic about the prospect of peaceful coexistence. 396 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 5: I think I think the main driver was structural in 397 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:43,680 Speaker 5: the thucidityan story. Okay, so if you look at the 398 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 5: British in the period from nineteen hundred to nineteen fourteen. 399 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 5: They become to be more and more shocked by the 400 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 5: fact that the Germans are doing things that are supposed 401 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 5: to be ours. They're producing something that we're supposed to 402 00:23:56,640 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 5: be in charge of. Actually, it's interesting, and I can 403 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,200 Speaker 5: describe this in the book as a famous document called 404 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:07,400 Speaker 5: the crow cr W Memorandum. So the King of England 405 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 5: asks his foreign minister. He says, why is it that 406 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 5: we're being so nasty about the Germans? This is my cousin. 407 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 5: Guys are ruined. 408 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,160 Speaker 2: They literally his cousin. 409 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 5: They go on vacation together in the summer, and he says, 410 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,600 Speaker 5: but every time I read anything, every time I see anything, 411 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:30,159 Speaker 5: everybody is blaming them for everything. Why is this? And 412 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:34,119 Speaker 5: Crow explains to him the sea shock is shifting, and 413 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 5: as the seashell shifts, everybody's perspective is impacted and they exaggerate. 414 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,400 Speaker 5: And this is kind of like normal. And I think 415 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 5: if you look at that Athens Sparta story, you can 416 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 5: find a very similar thing. The Athenians are doing what 417 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,440 Speaker 5: they're doing, and the Spartans are talking to said, these 418 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:53,920 Speaker 5: guys are hopeless. Look and see what they do every 419 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 5: day they get up and they think of some other 420 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 5: thing to be bishopous. 421 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,879 Speaker 3: Just real quickly, if we zoom forward to World War 422 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,439 Speaker 3: two in that scenario, is the US the rising power 423 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,640 Speaker 3: that that Hitler was completely anxious about? 424 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:06,879 Speaker 5: Is that? 425 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 3: How you fitted into that? 426 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 5: I'll say that World War two cases a complicated one, 427 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 5: and they've been a good question where Hitler is attempting 428 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:20,840 Speaker 5: to become a rising power in a situation that's already stabilized, 429 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:26,600 Speaker 5: but then he has actually such territory. Mostly in most 430 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:31,200 Speaker 5: of the cases, the rising powers don't have great territorial 431 00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:35,720 Speaker 5: or imperial aspirations in the in the in the Cold War, 432 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,680 Speaker 5: in the Soviet Union, I mean, the Soviet Union did 433 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:42,639 Speaker 5: really believe in their ideology that every country should be 434 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,520 Speaker 5: ruled by a communist government and that they needed to 435 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:52,880 Speaker 5: have a continuous expansion in order to basically legitimize their 436 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:56,880 Speaker 5: own rule. Fortunately, most of most. 437 00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:16,639 Speaker 2: Cases, how much of the current tension between the US 438 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 2: and China, tension, discomfort, discombobulation, How much of that is 439 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 2: down to China rising as a power versus the US 440 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 2: declining as a power. 441 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:32,800 Speaker 5: I would say, in the good question, So in the 442 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 5: China's meta narrative, who ask Chiesian paying or when they're talking, 443 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:43,400 Speaker 5: it's the inexorable rise of China. So there is confident 444 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 5: and he's just confident that they're rising into what will 445 00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:52,680 Speaker 5: be a Chinese century, as Teddy Roosevelt was if you 446 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 5: take the equivalent period in American history. But the other 447 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 5: component of this, which was not part of Teddy Roosevelt's, 448 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,399 Speaker 5: is that the US is irreversibly declining. 449 00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 2: That's what she believes. 450 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,400 Speaker 5: That's what she believes. And the person who works for him, 451 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:13,239 Speaker 5: who's is number four, and this closest idealogical person is 452 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:17,720 Speaker 5: one Hu Ni. Now by some accident of good fortune, 453 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,800 Speaker 5: have become one of their people, whom they one of 454 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 5: the people whom they enjoy talking to. I think mainly 455 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:29,120 Speaker 5: because Kissinger I'm you know, his mentor or mintee, and 456 00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 5: because I introduced them to Ducydities. I mean, is what 457 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 5: I said as the best publicity agent for a author 458 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:44,199 Speaker 5: than ever in China, because they've sold more copies of 459 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 5: Thucyddy's Plopannian War in Mandarin since my book than in 460 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:55,199 Speaker 5: the previous two thousand years. So in any case, one Hu 461 00:27:55,280 --> 00:28:00,600 Speaker 5: Ning is a serious thinker. He was a political scientists 462 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 5: in Originally he came to the US in nineteen eighty 463 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 5: nine on American Political Science Association fellowship or something to 464 00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:14,800 Speaker 5: study at the university or to be a fellow at 465 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,080 Speaker 5: the university. And then he traveled all around the US 466 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:20,560 Speaker 5: and he wrote a book that's called America Against America, 467 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:22,399 Speaker 5: and you could go and it's in English. You can 468 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,440 Speaker 5: see the English comic and it's a as the analysis 469 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,360 Speaker 5: of the factors that we're going to splinter the country. 470 00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:33,520 Speaker 5: It's pretty good for the time, pretty hotel, and they 471 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:38,400 Speaker 5: clearly continue thinking about that. I was there just before 472 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 5: the Trump She summit in Korea talking again to a 473 00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,920 Speaker 5: couple of people in the first circle, and they were 474 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 5: saying about the US. You know, the US. I mean, 475 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 5: here's one he was this stranger than we thought. I said, 476 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 5: what strang And she said, well, let me just let 477 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,280 Speaker 5: me give you this to start that the list, he says, 478 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:09,440 Speaker 5: New York is the city is the largest Jewish population 479 00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 5: in the world, and they're gonna elect a Muslim mirror. 480 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 5: New York City is the YEMPI center of global capitalism. 481 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 5: They're gonna like somebody who's a socialist. It we're socialists. 482 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:35,240 Speaker 5: The US is the government is providing food for one 483 00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:38,840 Speaker 5: in nine people in the US, and now they're talking 484 00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 5: about with all theygat we used to do that, you 485 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 5: know when when when we had people who were poor, 486 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,000 Speaker 5: but that we think that's one of our great achievements. 487 00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 5: We don't. We don't hand out food and people have food. 488 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:58,520 Speaker 5: The US is sending troops to cities. Said, we remember tenement. 489 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:02,959 Speaker 5: Is this like tenement? This is not like you know, 490 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:09,120 Speaker 5: the division of income has now become so great. They said, 491 00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:13,200 Speaker 5: you know, we saw this. This is data that two 492 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,560 Speaker 5: thirds of the consumption is now by the top twenty 493 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 5: percent of the income owners. Well, excuse me. In most societies, 494 00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 5: the people who were not that were being left out 495 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:28,880 Speaker 5: with riot or you know that that would be that's 496 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 5: why we say we have to be a modern socialist state, 497 00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,640 Speaker 5: because they have to so you know, they're going down 498 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 5: all this like that. I said, what do you have 499 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,720 Speaker 5: to remember is this is a strange country. It's absolutely. 500 00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:41,800 Speaker 3: Contradictions. 501 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 5: Contradiction. I sometimes I kaleidoscope of contradictions, because every time 502 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,320 Speaker 5: you move it it's another one. On the other hand, 503 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 5: it's been remarkably resilient and no other society with no 504 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 5: other governing system has been as successful over so long 505 00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:01,680 Speaker 5: a period of time, is this one? And then I 506 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,280 Speaker 5: usually do my lines about God looks after drug so 507 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 5: children in the USA I love. But I would say 508 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:10,080 Speaker 5: reasonable person could look at the country today and say 509 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:11,680 Speaker 5: this looks pretty strange. Yeah. 510 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:15,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, So obviously there are the big structural questions that 511 00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 3: will last for a long time, both China's economic rise, 512 00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:22,240 Speaker 3: US internal tensions, et cetera. But this year in particular, 513 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,040 Speaker 3: Tracy started episode with all these headlines and that's daily 514 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,240 Speaker 3: and Trump himself is you know, there's the contradictions within 515 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:30,280 Speaker 3: the White House, et cetera. But just the events of 516 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:34,520 Speaker 3: this year. Have they from today from January first to 517 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 3: today or from the inauguration today? Have your views changed? 518 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 3: Are you more optimistic less optimistic? 519 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:40,120 Speaker 5: Like? 520 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 3: How what have you learned in twenty twenty five? 521 00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 5: That's a good question. So I would say two thirds 522 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,680 Speaker 5: or eighty percent of the story is baked into the structure. 523 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:56,000 Speaker 5: So if and as China continues rising, which I believe 524 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 5: it will, and growing at about twice the rate we do, 525 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 5: which I think it will, and advancing in technologies the 526 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 5: way it has been, which I think it will, even 527 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:08,320 Speaker 5: though it has many many, many problems, but I think 528 00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 5: they will manage more or less on that path, and 529 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,560 Speaker 5: Americans will wake up more and more every day that 530 00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 5: China is in your face doing something or whatever. So 531 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:21,600 Speaker 5: that's point two in this doucentity and rivalry. Again, it's 532 00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 5: natural for the ruling power to blame the rising power 533 00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:31,160 Speaker 5: for everything, and blaming China or hyping China threat or 534 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,440 Speaker 5: demonizing China is kind of normal. And I would say 535 00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:41,240 Speaker 5: that Spartans were demonizing the Athenians, maybe not quite the extent. 536 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 5: So for Americans, we do it our way, But I 537 00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 5: would say that that part is right. Those are the 538 00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:52,160 Speaker 5: negative components. While it may seem strange, especially in Cambridge, 539 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 5: for somebody to look for some signs of hope or 540 00:32:55,960 --> 00:33:00,200 Speaker 5: or silver linings in Trump, I think Trump understands that 541 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:04,080 Speaker 5: nuclear war would be catastrophic and really really worries about 542 00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,480 Speaker 5: that in a way that the only other person in 543 00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:11,760 Speaker 5: the foreign policy establishment equivalent lately that has done that 544 00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:15,280 Speaker 5: was Biden, not Obama, not you know, eighty percent of 545 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,719 Speaker 5: the others. So that's number one. More, he understands per 546 00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:23,760 Speaker 5: a bit. Secondly, he somehow he has this respect for she. 547 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 5: He admires China some of what he admires. Is there 548 00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:31,280 Speaker 5: autocratic rule? He says, how in the world did you 549 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:34,480 Speaker 5: managed to rule one point five billion people with so 550 00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:37,640 Speaker 5: little objection? I wish I could manage my press the 551 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 5: way you do. You know, bab Baba, you've got a 552 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 5: lease on life. I mean, he's leader for life. Is 553 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:49,240 Speaker 5: anybody any suggestions for me? So he admires that he 554 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:53,000 Speaker 5: wants to be a great peacemaker. So I think it's 555 00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:58,120 Speaker 5: not inconceivable that we might come to have a strategic 556 00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:02,040 Speaker 5: concept that would be something like a partnership, which would 557 00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:06,640 Speaker 5: then balance. I think, will the thucydity rivalry continue in 558 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:08,960 Speaker 5: every case? Yes? I believe it will, And will it 559 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 5: mean that this feeds of fear and all the things 560 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,080 Speaker 5: that will be normal? But if it's also the case 561 00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:20,240 Speaker 5: that my survival as a country depends on a degree 562 00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,719 Speaker 5: of cooperation with you, so that we don't have a 563 00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:24,839 Speaker 5: nuclear war, because at the end of a nuclear war, 564 00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:28,800 Speaker 5: my country's caught, so that Hei doesn't end up ruling 565 00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:31,560 Speaker 5: us all with the two AA leaders. So could we 566 00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:36,000 Speaker 5: find so financial system in two thousand and eight, we 567 00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:39,440 Speaker 5: would have had the financial crisis, would have become a depression, 568 00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,360 Speaker 5: had it not been for a joint US China state 569 00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:45,879 Speaker 5: no trade. I mean, if we look at the rare 570 00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,120 Speaker 5: earth story, I mean that's what those are there? 571 00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, metal on Graham's table. 572 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,000 Speaker 2: We were going to ask, so there are a bunch 573 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:55,360 Speaker 2: of these are mission coins? 574 00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:59,920 Speaker 5: Is that right? These are just from from services. But 575 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:04,600 Speaker 5: this here, see if you can separate it, these are 576 00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:11,800 Speaker 5: rare earth magnets. And you can seet careful, okay, in 577 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:16,360 Speaker 5: any case, because we'll get it. We have become dependent 578 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,759 Speaker 5: upon China for how many things in our supply chain, 579 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,600 Speaker 5: and they fortunately depend in honice for how many things. 580 00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:24,960 Speaker 5: So part of the reason why they got the stale 581 00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,840 Speaker 5: made in the current. What would otherwise be? You know, 582 00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:31,640 Speaker 5: Trump's bullying another country is that he comes up against 583 00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,720 Speaker 5: somebody as strong as we are. So in that case 584 00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:38,360 Speaker 5: he's adapting and adjusting. No, I would say, you know, 585 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:42,320 Speaker 5: if I'm looking for silver linings, I'm looking in that space. 586 00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:44,719 Speaker 2: I hate to end on a down note, and I'm 587 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:46,799 Speaker 2: conscious of the time and you have to run off. 588 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,720 Speaker 2: But in terms of the US China cold war turning 589 00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,839 Speaker 2: into a hot war, what should we be looking out for? 590 00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:56,920 Speaker 2: Because as we started this conversation, every day, there's a 591 00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:00,480 Speaker 2: new headline about, you know, China's moving this naval vessel 592 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:04,920 Speaker 2: into this particular body of water, and there's propaganda airing 593 00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:09,600 Speaker 2: in China that's prepping the population for an imminent Taiwanese invasion. 594 00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:11,920 Speaker 2: That sort of thing. What would you actually look for 595 00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:13,000 Speaker 2: as a warning sign. 596 00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:18,719 Speaker 5: So I think most of the news lines that we 597 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:24,239 Speaker 5: hear or statements from people are China hype. And you 598 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:30,840 Speaker 5: cannot accuse China of anything today in the US without 599 00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:36,960 Speaker 5: getting a residence. So nobody, I mean, I get blamed 600 00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,320 Speaker 5: it Casley for being the China sympathizer by simply saying 601 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:44,120 Speaker 5: what you're asserting is false. Yes, of course there's many 602 00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:47,080 Speaker 5: many things Chinese doing, but it does so. For example, 603 00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:52,279 Speaker 5: one of the favorite cluses out China has the fastest 604 00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:56,520 Speaker 5: nuclear build up in the world because they're going from 605 00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,640 Speaker 5: about five hundred weapons to about one thousand weapons in 606 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:04,799 Speaker 5: twenty which answers, well, that's a historical statement. And if 607 00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:07,520 Speaker 5: you look at the number of warheads we went to 608 00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,520 Speaker 5: from in the Eisenhower period or the Kennedy period, in 609 00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,400 Speaker 5: both cases there were more that just happened not to 610 00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:17,360 Speaker 5: be true. Not there'll be many, many, many accusations of 611 00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,799 Speaker 5: that kind, and I think those will continue because so 612 00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:26,120 Speaker 5: China has developed a manufacturing ecosystem. It basically can produce 613 00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,759 Speaker 5: anything at scale that half the price that we can 614 00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,880 Speaker 5: well lo and behold. If you go to Walmart, sort 615 00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:35,680 Speaker 5: to home depot, half the stuff or more is made 616 00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:39,160 Speaker 5: in China. Well, people will complain about that. So that 617 00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:42,000 Speaker 5: part of seems right, But I would say that most 618 00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:46,040 Speaker 5: of this is just hype. Where you find danger is 619 00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:49,719 Speaker 5: where there are third parties whose initiative might in this 620 00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:54,600 Speaker 5: like the story of Coursera, produce a set of reactions, 621 00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,920 Speaker 5: and they're the most The leading candidate of Taiwan and 622 00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:01,200 Speaker 5: the current president of Taiwan Lie who done taking many, 623 00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:05,040 Speaker 5: many dangerous actions. I think fortunately, both in the Biden 624 00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:09,960 Speaker 5: administration and in the Trump administration, they've had conversations at 625 00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:13,840 Speaker 5: that leader level about not letting this person by some 626 00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:18,239 Speaker 5: irresponsible action. Dragosoptism. You know there is that the Chinese 627 00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:23,920 Speaker 5: rules of engagement in their exercises in the Straits and 628 00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:28,000 Speaker 5: in the South China Sea are now such that it's 629 00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:32,200 Speaker 5: not very difficult to imagine a collision of a ship 630 00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:34,480 Speaker 5: or a plane. We saw that at the beginning of 631 00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:38,319 Speaker 5: the Bush administration when they collided with one of our spyplanes, 632 00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:45,120 Speaker 5: and so could that escalate? And I think that's why 633 00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:50,320 Speaker 5: again getting back to communication channels between the two parties 634 00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:54,279 Speaker 5: where they can talk candidly and privately in order to 635 00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:57,759 Speaker 5: have a circuit breaker if some accident happens, which I 636 00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,000 Speaker 5: think on the current path would be likely to happen. 637 00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:02,840 Speaker 2: I'm going to ask one more very quick question because 638 00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,600 Speaker 2: you brought up manufacturing just then, and something else that 639 00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,520 Speaker 2: we've been noticing lately is there's a tendency among a 640 00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:11,480 Speaker 2: lot of Western economies, especially to talk about building up 641 00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:16,759 Speaker 2: their own manufacturing capacity, including in terms of munitions and 642 00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:20,000 Speaker 2: rare earth minerals. As you just mentioned. There was a 643 00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:22,839 Speaker 2: headline I think just yesterday about the UK wanting to 644 00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:27,320 Speaker 2: build ammunition within its own borders instead of relying on allies. 645 00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:31,160 Speaker 2: What's the underlying motivation there, Because most people would look 646 00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:33,200 Speaker 2: at a headline like the UK wants to make its 647 00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:37,960 Speaker 2: own bullets as you know, a predecessor maybe to some 648 00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:39,600 Speaker 2: sort of military conflict. 649 00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,680 Speaker 5: Well it's good. I mean it is puzzling, and there 650 00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:45,319 Speaker 5: are a lot of puzzling things. But I would say 651 00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:50,840 Speaker 5: that whenever it's pointed out that people that you're dependent 652 00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:55,040 Speaker 5: on some other party for supply of something. So for example, 653 00:39:55,840 --> 00:40:00,800 Speaker 5: for the US, rare earth magnets are required for almost everything, 654 00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:08,400 Speaker 5: so for cars, for iPhones, for laptops, for f thirty fives, 655 00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:13,560 Speaker 5: for comahook whistles or whatever. So how would we allow 656 00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:16,080 Speaker 5: ourselves to be dependent on China because that gives them 657 00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:20,600 Speaker 5: something that they can squeeze that supply chain and be coarse. 658 00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:24,239 Speaker 5: So I would rather be independent on that. And so 659 00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:28,440 Speaker 5: any politician would then make an announcement, Okay, we're declaring 660 00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:33,399 Speaker 5: they were going to be independent, asking what would be 661 00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:36,320 Speaker 5: required to be done in order to reach that stage? 662 00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:38,840 Speaker 5: People are not asking, so that would be at the 663 00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:42,960 Speaker 5: next level. Similarly, if you look, for example, for most pharmaceuticals, 664 00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,799 Speaker 5: most of the pharmaceuticals and the pharmaceutical precursors that we 665 00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,040 Speaker 5: use for any medicines come from me, the China, or 666 00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:53,319 Speaker 5: from Indian. Well maybe we should do these ourselves. Munitions 667 00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:57,520 Speaker 5: we shouldn't be giving out a So the fact that politicians, 668 00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:01,120 Speaker 5: when they see somebody says here's it been, it's your vulnerability, 669 00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,600 Speaker 5: declared that we're going to be independent, as I would say, 670 00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:08,520 Speaker 5: predictable if you look and see what behaviors follow from that, 671 00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:14,040 Speaker 5: the answer is not very many. So I'm almost thready 672 00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:18,120 Speaker 5: to accept the proposition that we're going to be inextricably 673 00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:24,759 Speaker 5: entangled in supply chains and economics, in which case some 674 00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:28,160 Speaker 5: version of mutual deterrence of the sort that we found 675 00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:32,279 Speaker 5: in the nuclear balance maybe where we end up. Now. 676 00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:37,560 Speaker 5: Is that a good place to be compared to the elsewhere? No, 677 00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:41,480 Speaker 5: I've read to be independent, but compared, I mean, is 678 00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,719 Speaker 5: that something we can manage if you have competent governments 679 00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:46,880 Speaker 5: and managing And I would say, you know, yes. 680 00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:50,040 Speaker 2: All right, Professor Allison, thank you so much for coming 681 00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:52,200 Speaker 2: on all lots and inviting us to your office here 682 00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:54,880 Speaker 2: at Harvard. Thank you so much. Yeah, a lot to 683 00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:57,160 Speaker 2: look at to have you here. 684 00:41:57,320 --> 00:42:00,480 Speaker 5: Glad to be on the problem. I thank you good questions, 685 00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:03,960 Speaker 5: and I'm glad to see two serious students with international there. 686 00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:08,400 Speaker 6: We took our background and went and took final highest 687 00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:22,319 Speaker 6: praise I got, Joe. 688 00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:23,400 Speaker 2: That was a real treat. 689 00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:27,680 Speaker 3: It was a real treat. Just being in doctor Ellison's 690 00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:30,799 Speaker 3: office was really nice. I just I could go You've 691 00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,000 Speaker 3: heard me already say this, But like being a professor 692 00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:39,000 Speaker 3: at an elite American professor Tess so sick and then 693 00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:41,840 Speaker 3: like it would say, such a it's like such a 694 00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:43,600 Speaker 3: dream career they have. 695 00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:47,080 Speaker 2: You know what bothers me is you and I both 696 00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:49,320 Speaker 2: did international relationship. Yeah, and I think we have a 697 00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,319 Speaker 2: similar complaint. But like that conversation that we just had 698 00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:56,000 Speaker 2: with Professor Allison was what I thought international relations was 699 00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:57,759 Speaker 2: going to be. You know, we were going to sit 700 00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:01,800 Speaker 2: there and pontificate about US China relations and then compare 701 00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:06,080 Speaker 2: it to Sparta versus Athens in ancient Greece. And instead 702 00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:10,040 Speaker 2: it was basically all philosophy. It was like game theory. Yeah, 703 00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,440 Speaker 2: I know it's and like it was so abstract, Like 704 00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:15,319 Speaker 2: I think I had entire courses where we didn't even 705 00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:18,200 Speaker 2: name a single country like by name. It was just 706 00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,960 Speaker 2: if country A does this, what does country be do? 707 00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,359 Speaker 3: It's such a weird discipline for that reason, and as 708 00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:27,760 Speaker 3: an adult, I've tried to read some international relations books 709 00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:30,520 Speaker 3: and it's all this like weird game theory and tables 710 00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:33,040 Speaker 3: and stuff like that and just not my thing. I 711 00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:35,520 Speaker 3: think there's there's probably I know we're going off on 712 00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:37,640 Speaker 3: a little bit of a tangent here. It feels a 713 00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:42,359 Speaker 3: little bit like, you know, the same phenomenon in economics, 714 00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:45,319 Speaker 3: for example, Like you study economics, you're you're gonna think 715 00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,200 Speaker 3: about like, well, what's gonna happen to the unemployment rate, 716 00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:51,160 Speaker 3: what's gonna happen with the stock market, cetera, And then 717 00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:55,040 Speaker 3: you read academic economics, and I'm not as like, you know, 718 00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:59,880 Speaker 3: I'm like, as I've grown older, as I've matured, I'm like, 719 00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:03,520 Speaker 3: you know, I've like I appreciate academic econ more than 720 00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:04,880 Speaker 3: I did when I was in my youth, and I 721 00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:07,320 Speaker 3: was like, this is done with all these equations and 722 00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,239 Speaker 3: stuff like that. It's all fake. I don't think that 723 00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:12,080 Speaker 3: isn't much anymore, but it does feel like kind of 724 00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:16,239 Speaker 3: disconnected from like, wait, I thought economists talked about, you know, 725 00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:18,239 Speaker 3: the unemployment rate and stuff like that, and then you 726 00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:19,399 Speaker 3: read what a paper is about. 727 00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:20,759 Speaker 2: It's very abstract. 728 00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:21,239 Speaker 5: You're right. 729 00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:24,520 Speaker 2: One thing that did surprise me was when the professor 730 00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:27,840 Speaker 2: was talking about his latest trip to China. Was it 731 00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:29,880 Speaker 2: his latest trip, well, one of his trips to China 732 00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:33,560 Speaker 2: where he was talking and trying to or hearing from 733 00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:38,400 Speaker 2: Chinese policymakers about how they're very confused by America and 734 00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:42,120 Speaker 2: in particular the example of capitalist New York electing a 735 00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:45,600 Speaker 2: socialist mayor, and I thought like, if anyone can understand 736 00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:50,840 Speaker 2: socialism with capitalistic characteristics, it must be the Chinese. 737 00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:52,920 Speaker 3: It should be it should be very intuitive. No, I 738 00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:55,560 Speaker 3: thought that was like just overall though very I mean, 739 00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:59,000 Speaker 3: it was a little bit grim, the idea that almost 740 00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:01,600 Speaker 3: like we're kind of a borrowed time here. It's like, 741 00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:04,560 Speaker 3: it's been a really long time since a Great Powers 742 00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:08,800 Speaker 3: war by historical standards, and so it's already been a 743 00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,560 Speaker 3: long time. Historically, they come along work frequently, and now 744 00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:14,239 Speaker 3: the conditions are in place for this, you know, the 745 00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:17,719 Speaker 3: so called a Thucididy's trap as he sees it. I'm 746 00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:20,560 Speaker 3: not thrilled that in the best case scenario, for the 747 00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:22,600 Speaker 3: rest of my life, there's always going to be a 748 00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:25,080 Speaker 3: risk of that being right around the corner the moment 749 00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:28,319 Speaker 3: some third party country does something, you know. 750 00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:32,439 Speaker 2: Well the leash the other thing. And again this goes 751 00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:35,040 Speaker 2: back to why I'm so frustrated with IR as an 752 00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:38,200 Speaker 2: academic discipline. But like the emphasis on good state craft, 753 00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:41,920 Speaker 2: good state craft makes a difference. Yeah, right, you know, 754 00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:45,719 Speaker 2: he talked about the Cuban missile crisis and JFK and 755 00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:48,759 Speaker 2: we came very very close to absolute disaster there, but 756 00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:54,120 Speaker 2: it was ultimately averted by the individual actions of human beings, 757 00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:57,239 Speaker 2: both in Russia and in the US. And I feel 758 00:45:57,280 --> 00:46:00,200 Speaker 2: like that's kind of what's missing in ir It's that 759 00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:05,200 Speaker 2: like emphasis on individual choice and motivations and incentives and 760 00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,719 Speaker 2: how to actually do good state craft rather than just 761 00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:11,120 Speaker 2: like look at everything through the prism of either neoliberalism 762 00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,880 Speaker 2: or realism power. Yeah, or did you ever do gender theory? 763 00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:16,920 Speaker 3: I don't think I took that. 764 00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:18,880 Speaker 2: There is an interesting one. The reason we had the 765 00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:22,560 Speaker 2: Cuban missile crisis is because men and large objects. 766 00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:27,360 Speaker 3: I've but it I am really interested in this idea 767 00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,320 Speaker 3: that unlike the US, So he used the term I 768 00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:33,320 Speaker 3: think he said missionary sort of to characterize how the 769 00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:38,719 Speaker 3: US sees and spread democracy and liberalism and capitalism. And 770 00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:42,200 Speaker 3: of course the Soviet Union also had this impulse to 771 00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:46,400 Speaker 3: spread communism, and everywhere there was a communist party, it 772 00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:48,759 Speaker 3: felt some tug to back them up, and that's how 773 00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:52,480 Speaker 3: the Soviet Union got mired in Afghanistan for years and years. 774 00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:56,520 Speaker 3: China doesn't really seem to have that. It wants to trade, 775 00:46:56,640 --> 00:47:01,040 Speaker 3: I mean outside of it wants to consolidate it's physical territory. 776 00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:03,920 Speaker 3: But it does not seem you know, like, you know, 777 00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:07,760 Speaker 3: there's a great story several months ago, apparently the Cubans 778 00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:10,040 Speaker 3: came to China, And as for advice, I said, well, 779 00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:13,440 Speaker 3: have you tried liberalizing your economy? Have you tried basically 780 00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:16,239 Speaker 3: not being communists? Like it doesn't have that impulse the 781 00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:19,080 Speaker 3: same way the Soviet Union did, and nor does they 782 00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:21,200 Speaker 3: have it like the US does. So I'm curious, like, 783 00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:25,120 Speaker 3: as China truly becomes a global power, is a great power, 784 00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,680 Speaker 3: it seems fairly rare historically for it to have so 785 00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:32,160 Speaker 3: little interest in how other countries manage their affairs. 786 00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:32,920 Speaker 6: Yeah, I did. 787 00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:35,640 Speaker 2: I enjoyed the line about, you know, like, it's not 788 00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:38,960 Speaker 2: really about getting more people to be Chinese, because it's 789 00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:41,160 Speaker 2: special to be Chinese in the first place. 790 00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:42,720 Speaker 3: We're not good enough to be Chinese. 791 00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:45,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, shall we leave it there at Chinese. 792 00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:46,839 Speaker 3: Joe, let's leave it. Let's leave it there. 793 00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:49,480 Speaker 2: This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. 794 00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:52,800 Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. 795 00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:54,840 Speaker 3: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at The 796 00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:58,920 Speaker 3: Stalwart follow our Guesst Graham Allison. He's at Graham t Allison. 797 00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:02,600 Speaker 3: Follow our produce users Kerman Rodriguez at Kerman armand Dash'll 798 00:48:02,640 --> 00:48:05,919 Speaker 3: Ben at Dashbot and Kilbrooks at Kilbrooks. 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