1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,560 Speaker 1: Hello, odd lots listeners. It's Joe Wisenthal. I wanted to 2 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:06,280 Speaker 1: share with you a new podcast from Bloomberg called What 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: Goes Up. Each week, host Sarah pon Second Mike Reagan 4 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: speak with expert guests about the main themes influencing global markets. 5 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: They explore everything from stocks to bonds, to currencies and commodities. 6 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: If you're curious about the latest plazz on Wall Street, 7 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:23,439 Speaker 1: this show is for you. We're going to play you 8 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: the latest episode of What Goes Up and if you 9 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: like what you hear and want to hear more, this 10 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: show is out now and you can subscribe to it 11 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:34,200 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks 12 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 1: and enjoy. Hello and welcome to What Goes Up, a 13 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg weekly markets podcast. I'm Sarah Ponza, a markets reporter 14 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: on the Cross Asset Team, and I am Mike Reagan, 15 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: a senior editor on the Markets Team. This week on 16 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: the show, from long shot to base case, Wall Street 17 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: is growing increasingly pestimistic, but a trade deal might not 18 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 1: be reached over the summer months, and even as the 19 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: Fed preaches patients, bonn yields continue to fall with the 20 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: ten year treasury yield reaching the lowest level since and 21 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 1: of course, Sara, we will finish the show with the 22 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: ever popular the craziest thing I ever saw in markets 23 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 1: this week, at least this week. I hope you have 24 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: a good one. You have a good crazy thing. I 25 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: will have a good one by the end of the podcast. 26 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:29,960 Speaker 1: All right, I've got a good one. No pressure on 27 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:32,759 Speaker 1: our guests. The mind's mind's pretty good. I'm just throwing 28 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 1: it out there. That's it. I'm not trying. Well, that's 29 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 1: one of our guests there, Emily Barrett, you better have 30 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 1: something good. Uh. Emily is our correspondent straight fresh from 31 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:45,960 Speaker 1: the trade Wars covering the bonds and FX markets. That's 32 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 1: exactly how it feels, and also joining us on the show. 33 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 1: Geno Martin Adams, the chief equity strategist here at Bloomberg. 34 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: Gina spent many years as a strategist, said, Wells Fargo 35 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: Waucobia Corp. Before that. But Sarah, I was looking at 36 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 1: Gina's bio. Something I did not know about her. She's 37 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 1: a Gator. Yes, you know that. I am from South 38 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 1: Florida as well. I'm a Gator by birth. That's too 39 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 1: Florida women on the show. I don't know, Florida women 40 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,919 Speaker 1: don't make the news quite as entertaining. Yeah, but maybe 41 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 1: we can change that. I don't underestimate it. But this 42 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 1: week We've been talking about US China trade for a 43 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: while now, but it seems like we got a bit 44 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: of a step up. We think about what's changed, for 45 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 1: one being the Huawei blacklist. We've also heard talks that 46 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: other surveillance companies out of China could be blacklisted as well. 47 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: And we even have a fight song out of China 48 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 1: and for gators. I went to school at Michigan. You know, 49 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 1: a good fight song can really rile people up. Gina. 50 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 1: From your perspective, is this becoming something that traders investors 51 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: can really no longer ignore. Yeah, I don't necessarily think 52 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 1: they have ignored it, but it did take a new 53 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,080 Speaker 1: step this week, and it took a step into a 54 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 1: tech war as opposed to just a trade war. I 55 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 1: think when you look back over the course of the 56 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: last year, that's been the most dangerous aspect of the U. S. 57 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: China relationship shift. It's not the tariffs. The tariffs are 58 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: a teeny tiny portion of GDP growth. They're a teeny 59 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:18,079 Speaker 1: tiny portion of earnings growth. You know, you've run through 60 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,959 Speaker 1: the quantification of tariffs and you find out real quick 61 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: how small they are, which is why stocks could sort 62 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 1: of bounce around in the one to three percent decline 63 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 1: range up until this week, and we did see an 64 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 1: elevated level of volatility this week. We've seen a lot 65 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: more angst evident in broad market classes, with the rise 66 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: in gold as a good example. This week. Small caps 67 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: really getting creamed this week, so much bigger risk off 68 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: sentiment this week than last week. And I think the 69 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: reason for that is this week it became about tech, 70 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 1: not about trade. Gee, I'm curious, in uh, your career, 71 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: have you ever thought about politics as much as as 72 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 1: we have through these days. It seems like a very 73 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: uncomfortable thing for numbers ended fundamental technical analysts. Yeah, it's uh. 74 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: I have thought about politics a lot over the course 75 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: of the last several years. I mean, I can distinctly 76 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 1: remember sixteen as a year in which it was all 77 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 1: you know, the popular sentiment on Wall Street was if 78 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,600 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton wins, stocks should do fine. If trade, if Trump, 79 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 1: when stocks are going to get pummeled, right, and the opposite, 80 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: The exact opposite thing occurred right after the Trump election 81 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: in seen, then the thing was stocks just climbed this 82 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: wall of wari because everyone was really concerned about Trump. 83 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: I think throughout my career, I've always had to focus 84 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 1: on policy in general, but more so on monetary policy 85 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 1: than on fiscal policy, and certainly never on trade policy. 86 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:48,600 Speaker 1: And you know, even the smartest trade policy movements in 87 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 1: the Bush administration weren't so meaningful for the broad market. 88 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 1: So it's definitely a very different kind of policy that 89 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: we were now focused on. Though policy is always important, 90 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 1: it's just usually monetary other than than trade or fiscal 91 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 1: that really matters. And you mentioned how and I think 92 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 1: everyone's doing this now. You take the x percent tariffs 93 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 1: on x dollar value of goods, and you get why 94 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: you get a certain effect on earnings on revenue, But 95 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 1: I wonder is there more to it than that or 96 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: there's sort of unquantifiable risks, uh to confidence, to sentiment, 97 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 1: that sort of thing, and and how you know, how 98 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 1: do you wrap your head around that as the type 99 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 1: of strategists you are who is deep into the numbers. Yeah, 100 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 1: it's it's frankly, very very difficult because behavioral analysis is 101 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: a huge part of markets and I think the only 102 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 1: way to really analyze the potential impact to this is 103 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 1: through price itself. You know, we can all speculate as 104 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: to what it means for GDP growth globally. We can 105 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: all speculate as to how much this is either inflationary 106 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,600 Speaker 1: or deflationary. But the hard truth is nobody knows. We 107 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: could try to quantify it, we could try to pretend 108 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:54,919 Speaker 1: we know more than anybody else, but the reality is 109 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,039 Speaker 1: the market itself, which is an aggregate of millions and 110 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 1: millions of people's opinions, is probably smarter than any of 111 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:03,039 Speaker 1: us in this room. Right I've made a whole career 112 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 1: out of pretending I know more than uh, and so 113 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 1: I watch price very very carefully, and what price tells 114 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 1: me right now is okay. So far the risk of 115 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 1: this there's somewhat contained five percent correction and stucks is nothing. 116 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 1: These things come around every nine months or so on average. 117 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 1: But if we start to work our way toward ten percent, 118 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 1: we break that ten percent line, it becomes very clear 119 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 1: that the market's impression of this is something much worse. 120 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 1: Right now, something I've been hearing as to why markets 121 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: have been decently resilient. We're not too far off the highs. 122 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 1: Like you said, is that you look at the economic data, 123 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: you look at the fundamentals, and they're still largely strong. However, 124 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 1: this past week we did see some weak er pm 125 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 1: I numbers in the US, not yet contracting, but pretty 126 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 1: close on the cusp. What could it take to really 127 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: push us off the edge? Yeah, so historically you're not 128 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 1: pushed off the edge until manufacturing p m I in 129 00:06:57,800 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 1: the US is all the way down at forty three. 130 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 1: We got I think the market will absolutely hesitate reach 131 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 1: a point of very big insecurity if I s M 132 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: falls below fifty. Uh. That's one of the big keys 133 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: that we watch. Initial claims is another one incredibly important 134 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: to the direction of equities, long term initial claims. If 135 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: initial claims start rise, saying, and especially if they rise 136 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 1: more than fifty, thou start to move towards seventy in 137 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: a rise, you're pretty much assured that you're falling into recession. Uh. 138 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: The other thing to watch is, of course the bond markets. 139 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: We you still haven't had that inversion of the two 140 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: stents at least last I checked, and that's a big 141 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:38,119 Speaker 1: key trigger for the equity market sentiment as well. So 142 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 1: there are a lot of different things that I think 143 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: you want to watch for the economic data. You know, frankly, 144 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 1: consumer confidence, which is still near a fifteen year high, 145 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 1: is still pretty supportive, so you need to see a 146 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 1: big deterioration and consumer confidence as well. What's a good 147 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: segue into our next guest on the Bonds team, Emily, 148 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: You had a story out this week talking about the 149 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 1: market expectations for inflation. I just want to read one 150 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 1: line because I think it's it's pretty important, uh, right 151 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: that since consumer price gains have been lagging the FEDS 152 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: two percent target for much of the past decade, it's 153 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: a little wonder that inflation isn't a hot topic in 154 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: the market yet. Don't don't done, But it may be 155 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: warming up with the Fed actively debating how it can 156 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 1: meet its inflation goals, including a June fourth the Fifth 157 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: Conference to discuss different approaches. I feel like the trade 158 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 1: tensions are UH causing a lot of confusion about what 159 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: we should expect for inflation. Obviously, the market is pricing 160 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 1: in lower inflation going forward, um, but a lot of 161 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:43,679 Speaker 1: people are talking about the pure inflationary effects of the 162 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 1: tariffs on the consumer. What is sort of the consensus 163 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:50,080 Speaker 1: out there or what's the smartest take you've heard about 164 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: what we should expect as far as inflation in the 165 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: trade trade war, right, Yeah, I mean this is the 166 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: interesting thing. I think people trying to segregate what's the 167 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 1: short term issue in terms of the inflation impact, and 168 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: directly I've seen some Golden Sacks Golden Sacks analysis saying, 169 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:07,440 Speaker 1: you know, this is the boost that we might see 170 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: two cp I and the mean in sort of the 171 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:12,199 Speaker 1: medium term, but people are really focusing on that longer 172 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: term potential drag on growth. And as they're looking to that, 173 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: they're sort of seeing if growth starts to slow, then 174 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 1: you have more and more headwinds to that inflationary impulse. 175 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,719 Speaker 1: And so really that's where we're seeing this decline and 176 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 1: break evens, which is the inflation premium that have built 177 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 1: into treasuries. Um, we're seeing that just coming down and down. 178 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:31,439 Speaker 1: And that's despite the fact that you know, we've had 179 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 1: tariffs put on their other things, there's been oil price 180 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: gains sort of uh in the year to date hasn't 181 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 1: been reflected at all, and normally break evens would follow 182 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 1: that pretty closely. So we're seeing this kind of really 183 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 1: sort of counterintuitive moving inflation markets. And it's because you know, 184 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,440 Speaker 1: people talked for ages about secular stagnation. You've got bored 185 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: of hearing about this. But it seems that the forces 186 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: that are pressuring inflation lower. It's not just in the US, 187 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 1: it's globally and so much stronger else where. People would argue, 188 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: really our top of mind from a investors and so 189 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: that's going to be hard to fight. And this is 190 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 1: this is where it comes down to people's expectations for 191 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: rate cuts. I mean, there's a sense in the market 192 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:11,079 Speaker 1: that the FED, if it's going to be serious about 193 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:13,559 Speaker 1: hitting its two percent inflation target, is really going to 194 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 1: need to take some action on rates to lower them UM. 195 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: And people have gone so far as to say, a 196 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 1: couple of people I spoke to, you know, it's not 197 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 1: just one cut, it's probably two or three if you 198 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 1: want to hit UM. The thing that's interesting about where 199 00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: c p I is at the moment is relative to 200 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 1: the Fed's target. The FED prefers consumption expenditure, so they 201 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:34,599 Speaker 1: look at a PC rate which is actually forty to 202 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: forty basis points below where CPI is, so UM, so 203 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 1: that's it's even worse really if you look at the 204 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:45,199 Speaker 1: Fed's preferred measure. I know a lot of people are 205 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: looking at the FED minutes that came out this week 206 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: and calling it old news, um, but I ran a 207 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: little control fine just to see where the word transitory 208 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 1: comes up, and transitory appeared twice as it relates to inflation, 209 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 1: whereas the last time around we saw the word transitory once, 210 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 1: but it was related to g d P and first 211 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 1: quarter slower growth being transitory. What else did we possibly 212 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 1: learn from the minutes, if it's possible to clean anything 213 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,559 Speaker 1: more from what we've heard from FAT officials, I think 214 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:14,199 Speaker 1: what people wanted to see. I mean, this must be 215 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 1: the shortest lived transitory impact on markets ever, because after 216 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 1: you know, when Fed, the Fed's power was really pushing 217 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,199 Speaker 1: that transitory message. You know, what's weighing on inflation is 218 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: going to be very short lived. You did see a 219 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 1: market correction that started to sell off a little. Oh right, Okay, 220 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 1: we might come back if the FED believes this is 221 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 1: going to happen, But that just got crushed. And what 222 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 1: the minutes gave us was this sense that at least 223 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 1: among the f O m C, that the FEDS committee, 224 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: there is a broad agreement that these or at least 225 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 1: they're on message that people seem to think that, yes, 226 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 1: this could be a transitory impact. But from the people 227 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 1: I've spoken to, they're listening at the fact to the 228 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 1: fact that the transitory effects don't quite make up for 229 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: the short form inflation. They really do believe that there 230 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 1: are stronger forces at work here. So what we learned 231 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 1: from the minut it's it's a really good question. I mean, 232 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 1: I'm not even sure that, uh, you know, the trade 233 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 1: impact wasn't factored in because obviously most of the trade 234 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: fall out really happened after the minutes were released. Um, 235 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: so the bump that we should have got, I've got 236 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:15,719 Speaker 1: a much more hype of getting it back. Really at 237 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 1: this point, if the break evens are right and we're 238 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 1: due for some weak inflation going forward, what does that 239 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 1: make certain sectors, certain factors look more attractive to you? 240 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 1: How would how would you recommend playing sort of low 241 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: inflation environment. Well, it depends on if we are indeed 242 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 1: in for a transitory or a longer term sort of 243 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: disinflationary deflationary trend first start. But if we assume that 244 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 1: it's very very short term, more than likely it pushes 245 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,199 Speaker 1: you into more defensive sort of sectors, and I think 246 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 1: we've seen that over the course of the last couple 247 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 1: of months. Our sector strategy model even pushed us into 248 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,600 Speaker 1: defensive sectors as early as the end of April. And 249 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 1: that largely reflects what's happening in right. Some rates are 250 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 1: rallying so much, indicating that this inflation pressure is somewhat nil, 251 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 1: at least in the short run, suggesting that the downside 252 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 1: risk to growth is still pretty evident. And at a 253 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: time after stocks had already rallied tremendously in the first quarter, 254 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: the valuation multiple started to shift as well on the 255 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 1: cyclicals versus defensives. Call I can tell you one sector 256 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 1: it absolutely suggests you want to stay away from, and 257 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: this is manifestans price performance as well as energy. There's 258 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 1: one sector that is just constantly the inflation play in 259 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 1: the equity market. It's energy, and then to a lesser extent, materials. 260 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:36,840 Speaker 1: As much as this last month of weakness in the 261 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 1: equity market seems to have been about tech, the energy 262 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: sector is down four bases points more than tech stocks. 263 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 1: I mean, it's just getting crushed. It's making new relative 264 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 1: price lows in comparison to the SMP five hundred and 265 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 1: has been persistently for the last several years, So the 266 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 1: equity signal is actually very deflationary. If not deflationary, then 267 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 1: at least disinflationary, and as persons sisted through a long 268 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:03,719 Speaker 1: period of time. At the beginning of the year, I 269 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 1: heard the case being made a lot that we needed 270 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: to see energy prices close the gap with oil prices 271 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 1: because we had seen oil rally so much. Well, now 272 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 1: clearly we're seeing oil prices roll over, we're seeing energy 273 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 1: stocks roll over. Is the case for that, for energy 274 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: prices to move up to oil prices and close the 275 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: gap kind of disintegrating? Yeah, you know, that gap has 276 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 1: been existing for the last three years, so you could 277 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: even take it all the way back to eleven when 278 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: the gaps started to widen. You know, I think that 279 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: the terrible fate for energy stocks is unfortunately, every time 280 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 1: oil prices rise, it's met with a new wave of supply, 281 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 1: which constrains profitability and constrains the inevitent and constrains the 282 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 1: oil price from continuing to rise. And that's very well 283 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 1: played out in energy stocks and energy investors. Investors just 284 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 1: don't want to touch the sector on that premise alone. 285 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 1: From a sentiment perspective, you got a love energy for 286 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: a long term sort of sentiment call. You're looking at 287 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 1: a sector that's now less as a share of market 288 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 1: cap of the SMP five hundred than it was when 289 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 1: oil prices were ten dollars of barrel. So nobody wants 290 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 1: to touch this stuff. But how do you jump in 291 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 1: in the face of clear signals from the rates market 292 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 1: generally sort of depressed economic signals relative to where we 293 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 1: were at least a year ago, stock price signals that 294 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 1: are still very, very negative, and frankly, the dynamics of 295 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 1: oil supply and demand are different today than they were 296 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 1: ten years ago. So it's a tough space. And there's 297 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 1: just not a lot to suggest that that gap necessarily 298 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: needs to close, because frankly, oil prices keep closing back 299 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 1: toward energy stocks every time they try to rally, and 300 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: that's just the fracking boom. I take it, just the supply. Yeah. 301 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 1: I mean, if you think about sort of how things 302 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 1: have changed over the last decade or so, go back 303 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 1: to two thousand seven, two thousand and eight, when oil 304 00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: prices were moving towards a hundred and fifty dollars in 305 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 1: the center, it was We're never going to find supply again. 306 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 1: I mean, there's just just not enough oil in the world. 307 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 1: And oh yeah, over the course of the next several 308 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 1: years we found out, oh lo and behold, there is 309 00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: actually plenty of supply. We just needed to use new 310 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 1: technologies to get to it. That's created this massive downtrend 311 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 1: and oil prices really since they peaked in twenty seven 312 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 1: and then again in and the result of that is 313 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 1: just this this persistence of supply, or even the perceived 314 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 1: persistence of supply, con strange your upward potential for price growth, 315 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 1: and it's feeding through the energy stacks emily. To get 316 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 1: back to the Fed minutes, there's this weird situation that 317 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 1: happens where, okay, the trade war escalates a couple of 318 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: weeks ago with President Trump's tweets, and then he follows 319 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 1: through and raises the terror Then along come the minutes, 320 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: which are reflecting a meeting that occurred before it. So 321 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: yet people still seem to react to them. I mean, 322 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:15,119 Speaker 1: assuming this is the last best evidence we've gotten from 323 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve on their thinking, but at some point 324 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: to people just to ignore them. You've talked to a 325 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: lot of investors after the minutes, Presumably they're still reading 326 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 1: these minutes even though so much has changed since then, 327 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 1: or did they discount them to some degree. I think 328 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:31,199 Speaker 1: this is the weird thing, and this is the thing 329 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:33,360 Speaker 1: that always makes me just sigh and kind of want 330 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: to scream sometimes when you look at the minutes, because 331 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:38,640 Speaker 1: like this is essentially stale news, right, and particularly at 332 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: this point because it's prior to all of the trade 333 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 1: stuff that happened. So I was actually really interested myself 334 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: to see what the market was going to do to this, 335 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:47,479 Speaker 1: And it just it's funny because I don't know if 336 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: people actually forget they're still they're so busy reading the 337 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,919 Speaker 1: Fed's ruins sometimes that any signal like this sort of 338 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 1: smoke signal is going to tell them what to do. 339 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,159 Speaker 1: But I think the interesting thing that most people are 340 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 1: trying to pause out of that document is how much 341 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: consensus is there, how firmly held a belief is this 342 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 1: in the fit, and how difficult it might it be 343 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 1: to dislodge, Like how much they're looking at the data 344 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 1: really and what what is their interpretation of the data, 345 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 1: So people are constant. The thing that I find most 346 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 1: amusing is looking at how people understand the word few 347 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 1: versus several versus a number of us some know as 348 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 1: a measure of how many people on the committee actually 349 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: hold a certain view. So that's that's one of the 350 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 1: things you talk about stale news. If you looked at 351 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 1: the staff economic projections in the minutes, they actually talked 352 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 1: about how trade the U. S and China coming together 353 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,880 Speaker 1: was positive. It was optimistic. So how that's changed since 354 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,440 Speaker 1: good minutes were actually written. I want to ask you, though, 355 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,439 Speaker 1: how far off does it seem like the bond market 356 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 1: is from where the Fed actually stands at this point 357 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,639 Speaker 1: in time. This is starting to feel as if that 358 00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 1: disconnect is actually widening again. I mean, we saw earlier 359 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 1: this year there was, you know, the market was really 360 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 1: doubling down to say even as many as you know, 361 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 1: sort of too high extarting to get We're getting closer 362 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: to that now. I think that the interesting point from 363 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 1: what the market is pricing in is there is actually 364 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 1: now still more than one hike priced in by the 365 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 1: end of the year, just a little more the Fed. 366 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 1: I think that after giving that message of transient, they're 367 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 1: just sitting there with that for the time being, and 368 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:22,919 Speaker 1: it seems as if that that conviction among policymakers is 369 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 1: really at odds with the markets movements lately. Um, But 370 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:28,680 Speaker 1: it's hard to see. I mean, as as you, Jina, 371 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,400 Speaker 1: you were discussing before, you know, the data are still 372 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 1: reasonably strong. There's there's actually looking at it objectively from 373 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 1: a dispassionate viewpoint, it's hard to see whether the FED 374 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:41,159 Speaker 1: would find a decent case to cut rates at this point. 375 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:43,639 Speaker 1: And now that they're starting up their inflation review, this 376 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 1: is going to become a really interesting topic to follow 377 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 1: over the next couple of months because they're really going 378 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 1: to have to look at what other kinds of strategies 379 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 1: they might take to try and meet their mandate. Now, Gina, 380 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 1: you have a lot of letters after your name, C 381 00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 1: F A, CMT. I also have three names, and I'm 382 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 1: just trying to extend their business parts as continued on 383 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 1: the confusion part of the game here. So I was 384 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 1: I was curious to see your technicals, putting your CMT 385 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:18,959 Speaker 1: head on Chartered Market Technician and and looking at the technicals. UM, 386 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:22,160 Speaker 1: So walk us through two things. I'm curious a sort 387 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 1: of what levels you're looking at, but also is it 388 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 1: the time, uh right now where technicals kind of take 389 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 1: a back seat to the fact that everyone's waiting for 390 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 1: the next headline, waiting for the next tweet. You know, 391 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 1: are there times when you sort of uh discount technicals 392 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 1: to some degree and don't give them as much weight 393 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 1: as you normally would, And are we in a period 394 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 1: like that now? I never discount technical I am a technician. 395 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 1: I think they're actually always valuable at every market stage, 396 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: and they're valuable in different ways. They give you different signals, 397 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:58,119 Speaker 1: either they're confirming or not confirming your fundamental case. That 398 00:20:58,160 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 1: gives you a reason to go back and look at 399 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:03,239 Speaker 1: the fundament until case. Nonetheless, I think you know right 400 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 1: now what the technicals are saying is near term there's 401 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 1: just not a lot of reason for optimism. It's still markets. 402 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 1: You know, maybe testing the early May lows, which were 403 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 1: support levels created by resistance points that we had matched 404 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:23,680 Speaker 1: on the SMP five hundred back in the October attempted 405 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: an advance, November attempt at advance, and then during the 406 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 1: rise earlier this year, we sort of got stuck in 407 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 1: this level in the SMP fire. We're back there again. 408 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 1: If we can hold these levels. Fantastic stocks are probably 409 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 1: in pretty good shape, but it's really questionable because you're 410 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 1: getting breakdowns, some small capture getting breakdowns, and semiconductors, you're 411 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,400 Speaker 1: getting breakdowns and transportation stocks. Just the near term weakness 412 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,439 Speaker 1: is evident. Longer term, is there any evidence of the 413 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 1: bull market is over? No? Right? I mean, even the 414 00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 1: line last year only confirmed that the bolt trend is 415 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,919 Speaker 1: still intact because bottomed right at major support lines that 416 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: have existed since two thousand nine. I use a fifty 417 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,639 Speaker 1: week a lot, but that really defines sort of shorter 418 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:14,120 Speaker 1: term bowl trends and bear trends. The fifty week moving 419 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 1: average on the SMP five hundreds right around twenty seven 420 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 1: seventy seven seventy six right now, Uh that if we 421 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 1: crossed through the fifty week, then you're most likely going 422 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 1: to continue to go lower and see a fifteen correction again. 423 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:29,920 Speaker 1: But you have to go all the way down into 424 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: the twenty three hundreds to really eliminate the long term 425 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 1: bowl trend. So, just thinking perspective wise, you could easily 426 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:41,719 Speaker 1: have another recession with the twenty correction and stocks and 427 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 1: you're still in a long term secular bowl market. Right. 428 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 1: Short term you're absolutely in another bearish condition like we 429 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: were in eighteen. But you've got to have a significant 430 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 1: dismantling of trend in order to eliminate the overall bowl 431 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,120 Speaker 1: trend that's been in place for now more than ten years. 432 00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,719 Speaker 1: How about my personal favorite champoo, hadn't shoulders. A lot 433 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 1: of people are talking about a head and shoulders, are 434 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 1: talking about the size of the neckline, right, yeah, I am. 435 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:13,639 Speaker 1: But the other the really strong fundamental like tenant of 436 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 1: technical analysis is you never call a pattern before it 437 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 1: actually occurs. And that's what people are at risk of doing. Um, 438 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 1: I think you know, to call this a head and shoulders, 439 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: you have to have a significant breakdown beneath the neckline. 440 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 1: I haven't had that yet. To call it a triple top, 441 00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 1: you've got to have a similar breakdown. So I you know, 442 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 1: just I like to follow the rules, despite the fact 443 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 1: that I'm from Florida or went to the Florida. The 444 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,360 Speaker 1: rules of technical analysis say, don't get hasty to call 445 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 1: a pattern before it actually occurs. All right, Well, there's 446 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 1: one role in this podcast, and it's if you show up. 447 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,440 Speaker 1: You have to have a crazy thing, the craziest thing 448 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 1: you've seen in markets this week, So Emily is looking nervous. 449 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:59,239 Speaker 1: I don't think I don't think she prepared. Let her 450 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,960 Speaker 1: go last, Let hang on, hang on, you have little faith. 451 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 1: I actually I tried here. I don't want to go 452 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:05,480 Speaker 1: to last because then You're going to give you a 453 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: great ones and then I'm going to kind of limp 454 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:11,320 Speaker 1: in with So yeah, I'll go first. Okay, this is 455 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 1: this is a royalties thing, so it's not actually our 456 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,199 Speaker 1: markets thing, for say, but it's about money, so it's 457 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,320 Speaker 1: close enough. Asset all out. But I was a fan 458 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:20,399 Speaker 1: of The Verve back in the nineties. So there's this 459 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 1: song Bitter Sweet Symphony if anyone knows that I was 460 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 1: very fond of. It has this lovely string sort of 461 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 1: intro to it. And it turns out that Richard Ashcroft, 462 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 1: the lead singer of The Verve, lost the royalties to 463 00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 1: that song because he sam put a little too much 464 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 1: of a Stone song to do it, and so the 465 00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:40,600 Speaker 1: Stones ended up getting all the royalties. At that time, 466 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 1: it was huge, that album was huge, um and they 467 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:47,160 Speaker 1: just recently gave them back. So so they petitioned for 468 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 1: Mick Jagger to handback the royalties and without hesitation, apparently said, yeah, 469 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:59,840 Speaker 1: just there, just out of their good nature, out of it. Well, 470 00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 1: I I'm suspecting they may not have needed it. I 471 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 1: thought you're gonna go Rick Astley there. I thought I 472 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,760 Speaker 1: was getting Rick rolled. For a minute, I'm trying to 473 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 1: think of the fact. What about him next? Alright, Gina 474 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 1: Martin Adams. Yeah, so I'm afraid I'm going to disappoint 475 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 1: everyone because mine is incredibly obvious. But it just has 476 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 1: to be noted that we had a video go viral 477 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 1: out of China with a giant gold fist and a nationalist, 478 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 1: populist message that suggests like the Soviet Union is rising again, 479 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,879 Speaker 1: except for it's in China. I see that video and 480 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,199 Speaker 1: I'm just blown away. If you haven't seen it, you 481 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,400 Speaker 1: need to go out and search the Chinese trade War 482 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 1: fight song. It's it's just amazing and really, you know, 483 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,200 Speaker 1: and then you have all the just the yamp up 484 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:51,879 Speaker 1: in uh sort of this nationalistic sort of message coming 485 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 1: out of China this week has been extraordinarily aggressively. They're 486 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,120 Speaker 1: not back and down. You know. It also tells me 487 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 1: this is a lot about tech. This is And then 488 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:01,639 Speaker 1: I go back to what I said at the beginning, 489 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,360 Speaker 1: everybody's focused on trade. It is not about trade. It's 490 00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 1: about tech and who's going to be the global leader 491 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,320 Speaker 1: in technology development and advancement and dissemination around the world 492 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,639 Speaker 1: over the next several decades. So China is not backing 493 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 1: down because they're taking this really seriously. Well, Sarah, want 494 00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 1: to bring ye back onto singing. You can sing the 495 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 1: song for us. He sang the US Bond Markets theme 496 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:27,919 Speaker 1: song last week, so pretty impressive. Also, last week, I 497 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,440 Speaker 1: have to bring us an update just because last week, 498 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,440 Speaker 1: for those of you who didn't tune in, we talked 499 00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:37,960 Speaker 1: about how Steve Minusian's dad Um actually bought a ninety 500 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,879 Speaker 1: over ninety million dollar bunny rabbit. It was an art 501 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 1: piece um on the behalf of someone and now we 502 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,000 Speaker 1: know that it was on behalf of point seventy two 503 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 1: Steve Colin Um. So he is now I think, I 504 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,359 Speaker 1: can't believe we didn't guess that. Yeah, yeah, he is 505 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:58,640 Speaker 1: now the owner of a beloved over ninety million dollars 506 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 1: silver and able bunny rabbit. Pretty amazing. Um. But another 507 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,120 Speaker 1: one that I'll bring forwards this week that I guess 508 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 1: two is kind of obvious. Tesla. I mean, we have 509 00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,959 Speaker 1: analysts coming out one after another, going as far as 510 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,159 Speaker 1: saying that the worst case scenario, we could see Tesla 511 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 1: stock fall down to ten dollars a share, and we 512 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,400 Speaker 1: did see Tesla fall below two hundred dollars a share, 513 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,360 Speaker 1: which we haven't seen in quite a while. So pretty amazing. 514 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 1: I've got to say it is that is a soap 515 00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:28,200 Speaker 1: opera for the ages. I think, yes, all right, I'll 516 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 1: give you mine. Uh now, Sarah, it was a pretty 517 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 1: ugly day in the stock market on Thursday. You wouldn't 518 00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:37,719 Speaker 1: expect to see a lot of companies rising. What if 519 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,719 Speaker 1: I told you there was a stock that rose thousand 520 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:47,439 Speaker 1: and nine on Thursday a penny. This is why I 521 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 1: love the penny stocks there. Uh so, Rhino International Corp. 522 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:55,560 Speaker 1: It's a Chinese company. Sounds legit right, designs, manufacturers, installs 523 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 1: and services, proprietary and patented wastewater treatment, the sulfur is 524 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 1: Asian equipment and YadA, YadA, YadA. Anyway, Yes, it rose 525 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 1: to one penny, a true penny stock, from one a 526 00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:11,240 Speaker 1: penny um by by my math, it required about seven 527 00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,000 Speaker 1: hundred bucks to do this. The funny thing is the 528 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 1: market cap of the company yesterday. It was only like 529 00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:21,320 Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty eight dollars period, not million. It's 530 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:27,639 Speaker 1: so um. Congratulations to all the shareholders of Rhino International 531 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 1: Core about there. Uh. I try to find out more 532 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 1: about the company, but when you click on their website 533 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:37,400 Speaker 1: are web security software prevented me from seeing. I think 534 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:39,920 Speaker 1: that's how you all you need to know about this company. 535 00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,800 Speaker 1: But with that said, Gina Martin Adams, Emily Barrett, thank 536 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,240 Speaker 1: you so much for coming on the show today. We 537 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:53,560 Speaker 1: really enjoyed it. Thank you, thank you. What Goes Up 538 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:56,240 Speaker 1: will be back next week. Until then, you can find 539 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 1: us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website and app, or wherever 540 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took 541 00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:04,720 Speaker 1: the time to rate interview the show so more listeners 542 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,120 Speaker 1: can find us, and you can find us on Twitter, 543 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 1: Follow me at at Sarah pontzat, Mike is at you Anonymous. 544 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:15,160 Speaker 1: Our guest, Gina Martin Adams is at Gina Martin Adams, 545 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 1: and Emily Barrett is at not That ECB. What Goes 546 00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,400 Speaker 1: Up is produced by topor Foreheads. The head of Bloomberg 547 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,040 Speaker 1: Podcast is Francesca LEVI. See you next time.