1 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keen with 2 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best 3 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 1: of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 4 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course 5 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg harm band holds here from UniCredit. He's 6 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: in our Bloomberg eleven three studios in New York and 7 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: harm Let me just have you react to uh this broadly? 8 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 1: The geopolitical risk seems to continue here. Of course, we've 9 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: had a number of these tests here over these last 10 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 1: a few months. How does it how does it complicate 11 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:51,559 Speaker 1: the economic picture here in the US? Well, look, I 12 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: send out I send out in brief note yesterday talking 13 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: about the tough time nine that the busy four that 14 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: US lawmakers um is laying ahead of US law makers, 15 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 1: And I mentioned that probably the dead ceiling is the 16 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: biggest risk. And I was smart enough to add a 17 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,960 Speaker 1: by sentence and in addition to geopolitical risk and not 18 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: knowing obviously what happens overnight, but yes, um, it certainly 19 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: complicates UM. This It further fills up the timeline that 20 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,399 Speaker 1: Congress already has and certainly President Trump has a lot 21 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 1: to do to meet all these these deadlines. We're talking 22 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 1: about shut down, dead ceiling and and and many other 23 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:28,680 Speaker 1: things that that the text reform and after negotiation, all 24 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,479 Speaker 1: the stuff that is really on the top of investors minds, 25 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: and they are they are closely following what's going on 26 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 1: in DC. And then you know, you have the horrific 27 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:42,040 Speaker 1: hurricane um and then you have this geopolitical stuff going on. 28 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:45,720 Speaker 1: So I think most of all um it it is. 29 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: Its further complicates that the timeline for for lawmakers in Washington, 30 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: and of course we hope that there's no further escaletion. 31 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 1: It strikes me in a very similar position. You're obviously 32 00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 1: this this hurricane is is a different variable, but you 33 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,640 Speaker 1: have a White House was keen to embrace and and 34 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: push forward with tax reform. This week, the President traveling 35 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: to Missouri to deliver what's been built as a big 36 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,079 Speaker 1: speech on tax reform, trying to make that the paramount 37 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 1: issue here Yet again, uh and and News intercedes, what's 38 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,639 Speaker 1: what's your outlook for tax reform now? As we await 39 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 1: a statement more details from this group called the Big 40 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 1: Six to representative from the House the Senate and administration 41 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: as well. What's your sense of the timeline for that 42 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: now or if if you think anything is going to 43 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 1: be be done altogether. Yeah, we took this text cut 44 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: stimulus off the table actually a couple of months ago 45 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 1: because it just looked too complicated and the interest the 46 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: positions are too far apart um for in our of 47 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 1: you for this administration to get anything meaningful and done right. 48 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 1: And we know that for for for text reform, that 49 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 1: that actually increased the deficit over sometimes it does not 50 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 1: meet the bird rule. You need democratic support, which you 51 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: mean not really not on the cards to say the least. 52 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: So so you wouldn't need to do anything that is 53 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: either revenue neutral or limited in time. And and I 54 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 1: don't think anybody really wants it. It's not that helpful 55 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 1: on the corporate side. So at the end of the day, 56 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: we we thought our baseline is that we are not 57 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: getting no no text reform done. Good morning in terrific 58 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: news for Mike Allen, just publishing with excess with two 59 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 1: surveillance guests that we speak to Off and Richard Hass 60 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 1: When we went back and forth with last night, have 61 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: counsel on Foreign Relations and also Ian Bremer of you 62 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 1: raised your group, We'll give you updates on that and 63 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: Korea throughout the show. I look harm at where we are. 64 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 1: What's your statistic for g d P out twelve months? 65 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 1: You've been hugely wonderful on a more tempered view of 66 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 1: economic growth, You've been dead on. Have you changed that 67 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 1: being dead on? I don't know dead on, but the 68 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 1: vectors in the right direction. Sorry, Now I think we 69 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 1: are we are, we are gradually slowing. So next end 70 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 1: of next year we are we are ending up at 71 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 1: about two percent two point zero. Yeah, and and for 72 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 1: the second half of this year I have to be 73 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: a precise two points three percent um, so I think 74 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 1: we still we have some momentum we have been seeing this. 75 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 1: Consumer spending looks good. Actually, as for a change capin well, 76 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,840 Speaker 1: consumer spending looks good. Yeah, where's the Where's what's not 77 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: there that gets you to a sub three percent sup 78 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 1: two and a half statistic? How do you get there 79 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 1: to be low? To to be low two and a half? No, 80 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 1: I think right now what we're seeing temporary strengths. I 81 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: think it's catch up on the energy side and something 82 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,839 Speaker 1: else on the on the in capex spending, So that 83 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 1: is that looks good right now. I don't think it lasts. 84 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:36,360 Speaker 1: I think consumption growth has been a bit too strong 85 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:38,280 Speaker 1: giving the fundamental so I think there was a bit 86 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 1: of a technical rebound. So I think with UM, with 87 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 1: employment gainst moderating UM, inflation I think will start to 88 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 1: rise again a little bit stronger, so we'll accelerate. So 89 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 1: that takes purchasing power away. So I think over time 90 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: grocerates will settle towards something which is potential. Actually two 91 00:04:57,839 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: percent is probably still a little bit higher than PRETENTI 92 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: rows in the US bundles with US with unit credit 93 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: this morning, Lots to continue, lots to talk about with 94 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 1: Dr Bundles home. I want to I think it's so important. 95 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 1: UH discussed on radio, what we discussed on television. We 96 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 1: are advantaged by you being on both our platforms today. 97 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 1: Which is your outlier call and three point zero percent 98 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 1: unemployment rate is that morning in America? Is a three 99 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:29,279 Speaker 1: percent unemployment rate? Mr Reagan's picture of everything right for 100 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:33,359 Speaker 1: this nation? Well, as you said, we talked about it 101 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:35,039 Speaker 1: on on TV, and then we also talked about the 102 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,839 Speaker 1: quality of the jobs, and so I said, it's it's 103 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 1: not that easy to dismiss all these job gains as 104 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:43,479 Speaker 1: being low quality jobs, right, So that is not the case. 105 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: So we have had also the creation of very many, 106 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 1: very high quality jobs, very well paid. Was missing is 107 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 1: the middle class. But again some of the jobs we 108 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 1: are not so well paid. And I think the problem 109 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:59,719 Speaker 1: in the US is still rising inequality. So so the 110 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: ploint rate is one important measure of a country as 111 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: well being, but it does not give us the whole picture. 112 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,919 Speaker 1: So I think I think the despite of the falling 113 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: unemployment rate, well, while the unemployment rate is falling, we 114 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: still have growing inequality. And I think that is really 115 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 1: the big, the big problem of this country, and not 116 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: only of the US. But if you look at all 117 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: these inequality measures, the US is really ahead of the pack. There. 118 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:25,839 Speaker 1: The rate is only one part of that picture. We 119 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 1: get an update on that at the end of the week. 120 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: What are you expecting from the Labor Department on Friday? Well, 121 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: we have parro gains. I think we should not be 122 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: surprised to see some slowing because the last two months 123 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 1: have shown payro gains north of two or twenty thousand, 124 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 1: which was very strong. I think fundamentally too strong given 125 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 1: where the economy is right now, I think cruising speed 126 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:45,280 Speaker 1: is something like hundred seventy five thousand, So I think 127 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 1: we see something in the in the vicinity of a 128 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 1: hundred fifties thousand, so nothing two weeks. But but we 129 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 1: also know that August has traditionally been a little bit 130 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: of a of a week month for for payroll gains, 131 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 1: and sometimes it has been revised up further. I remember 132 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 1: a couple of years ago the US print for peril 133 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 1: gains in August was zero, and that was a big shock. 134 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 1: I think in the meantime it has been revised up 135 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: to a hundred fifty thousand, that zero. But but yeah, 136 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: so some some slowing, but it's mostly a technical payback. 137 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 1: If you want for for two strong gains in June 138 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: and July, and the unemployment rate I have it right 139 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 1: now stabilizing at four points threep. Did you have any 140 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 1: wisdom on pricing power? One of the themes of early 141 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: summer was corporations really running up again. It was something 142 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 1: we saw fifteen years ago, which is an inability to 143 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: raise prices. Yeah, I think, um no, I think more broadly, 144 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 1: the lack of wage gains, the lack of higher inflation 145 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 1: rates has been one of the big puzzles that we 146 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 1: have been facing of us several months or even even years. 147 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 1: And certain international competitiveness is a big problem for four companies. 148 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: Um competition including online competition, technological progress and all that stuff, 149 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 1: so that that makes it harder for companies to to 150 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 1: raise prices. I mean the best or a good example 151 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: we just had yesterday was a great big grocery store. 152 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 1: Price is quite dramatic. How do you know? That's right 153 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: where I wanted to go the page to the New 154 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 1: York Post. Good morning everyone worldwide. There is a store 155 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: in America called Whole Foods, which used to be as 156 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 1: Joe paycheck. Yeah yeah, not that I or David you 157 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 1: have ever darkened the door. They slashed, David, I say, 158 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 1: slashed five ounce organic baby kale. You were paying in 159 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 1: Brooklyn three for this puppy. The new price is three 160 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 1: forty nine. I mean, I was just ail from New Jersey. 161 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 1: Can look at a pay reduction right there alone within 162 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: the girl House. The competitors at a dollar thirty nine 163 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: one Joe Trader Trader Joe's a fifty fifty cent reduction 164 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 1: in kale. It Whole Foods it's gonna affect small farmers 165 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: like me trying to make a little it's unbelievable salmon, 166 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 1: which frankly full disclosure, I buy a lot of well, 167 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 1: we try to buy the fancy stuff on sale, but 168 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,959 Speaker 1: it's only on sale like Christmas, you know it's And 169 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: then avocados is the one that everybody sat up. We 170 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 1: had a guacamole frenzy at the house to fifty. I 171 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: refused to buy a two fifty avocado that's on American 172 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,319 Speaker 1: or on Mexican. They're now a dollar forty nine. Thank you, 173 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: Mr Bezos? Did you are you loaded up on kale? 174 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 1: Loaded up? We've been shopping on Sunday before all this happened. 175 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: That's exactly what the keyhouse did. Anyways, we say good 176 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 1: morning to Mr Bezos. Hope he's listening with Amazon and 177 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 1: the good people. Whole Foods with price reductions futures negative fourteen, 178 00:09:43,840 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 1: down futures negative ninety worldwide. This is Bloomberg joining us 179 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 1: now a gentleman who I think over a cup of 180 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: coffee in August cup of coffee, David Gurrow, we could 181 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:08,960 Speaker 1: have like a four hour conversation and not even get 182 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:12,560 Speaker 1: to Aaron judge sitting on the bench. L Schlastein is 183 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 1: president and chief executive officer, has to put up with 184 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 1: Red Sox fan Roger Alman at ever Core and he 185 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 1: joins US. Now. I want to get to the big 186 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 1: picture at the top of the hour. Right now, my 187 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:26,720 Speaker 1: fed M I F E D which is a London thing, 188 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: but I don't buy it for a minute. They want 189 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 1: to they want to change the way brokerage firms are 190 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 1: compensated for research services. Every way I read it, it's 191 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:42,079 Speaker 1: a massive pay reduction. Can it work in London and 192 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 1: will it migrate across the Atlantic Ocean? Well, I think 193 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: what they're clearly trying to do trying is to have 194 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 1: more transparency in what UH the managers of investors money 195 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:04,719 Speaker 1: is being spent on and UH. I think ultimately the 196 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 1: the hidden goal of that is probably to reduce a 197 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 1: little bit the amount spent on research and I UH 198 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 1: it's clearly going to happen UH in Europe. I think 199 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 1: it will h Oo's into the US market, which will 200 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: it'll affect some of the larger global UH firms. You know, 201 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:40,080 Speaker 1: the firms like my old firm, black Rock and UH 202 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:46,079 Speaker 1: Capital Group and Fidelity that have relatively seamless global equity 203 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 1: uh management franchises, and they're not gonna want to run 204 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: their business one way and the ross and another way. 205 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 1: We're being so polite, you're killing me. Is this a 206 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 1: bonus forever core in firms like you? You hate the 207 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: word boutique, but you know the smaller firms, the huge 208 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 1: success you and Roger have had. Is this a flight 209 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:09,839 Speaker 1: of intellectual component oil to you? Guys? No question that 210 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 1: the intellectual capital is fleeing independent firms. But well, my 211 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:21,599 Speaker 1: fed in this, this pseudo transparency leading to pay reductions 212 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: for intellect? Is this the best thing that's happened to 213 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 1: you since the surge by the Boston red Sox. I 214 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: think they're they're two effects. One is positive, one is negative. 215 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: I think the positive one is that high quality intellectual 216 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 1: capital will be get a higher market share of the 217 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 1: intellectual capital uh compensation pool. Uh. There's a whole range 218 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,200 Speaker 1: of firms out there that say, well, we have to 219 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: have an analyst in you know, biotech, uh, and that 220 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: you know formerly have to have who was the number 221 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 1: person in that? No, but he's gonna pay for that. 222 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 1: This is so important, folks, and what a privilege day 223 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,320 Speaker 1: Mr Slastein here with us today, who actually gets the 224 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 1: resume across the desk and he goes, you're kidding, We're 225 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 1: not paying him that anyways, Ralph, I'm gonna tear up here. 226 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: It's so emotional. We'll be back with David Gura, and 227 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 1: there'sn't link one way to get back with David Gura 228 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 1: and has to listen to Peaches and her David. It 229 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 1: has to be about politics. And one of the interesting 230 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: things of Mr Fostin is a tour of duty a 231 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,320 Speaker 1: few years back with a president named Carter. Of course, 232 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: his work with black Rock and then with Evercre has 233 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 1: worked with his Dennis and University over the years as well. 234 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 1: I have to ask about the future of your Democratic Party. 235 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 1: Can they maintain the status quo for eighteen and for 236 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 1: two thousand twenty or do they need to is a 237 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 1: general statement moved to the center. Is it a time 238 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 1: for political triage or is it steady as she goes 239 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 1: for the Democratic Party? Uh? Well, uh, I hope it's 240 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 1: not steady as she goes. I think the right now 241 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 1: you have a highly united Democratic Party, but it's united 242 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 1: by one thing against Trump. But that was true the 243 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 1: Republicans when President Obama was exactly. So that's not a 244 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: that's not a unifying theme, that's not a policy that 245 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 1: people can rally around it. My own personal view is 246 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 1: that we as a Democratic party, it's the it's not 247 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 1: as much about the left in the center. It's about 248 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 1: being about economic growth for everyone in the country and 249 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: not as uh segmented and and trying to touch each constituency. 250 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: So I think that naturally does move you to the center. 251 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 1: But there's a terrific new book written by a Columbia professor, 252 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 1: Lilia about, uh, you know, the need for the liberals 253 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 1: or democratically inclined people to focus on the betterment of all, 254 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 1: not the betterment of a whole bunch of individual groups. 255 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 1: And I think that's a really important theme. Maybe that 256 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 1: matters and plays well in Wisconsin and Michigan. Good morning 257 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 1: on a serious sex tement Channel one nineteen in key states, 258 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 1: as they say, David, David, you're better at this than 259 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 1: I am. How do you make sense of what's happening 260 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 1: in Washington right now? How stark? How big is that 261 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: divide between between New York and and d C. And 262 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 1: when you look at the regulatory landscape, But in specific. 263 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 1: We've got a fairly thick tone from the Treasury Department 264 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: on banking regulation what they'd like to do to to 265 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 1: change it. Do you have a sense of how that 266 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: landscape is changing. Well, I I think the regulatory world 267 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: tends to swing back and forth, and it always over swings, 268 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: and you know, I would argue that some of the 269 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: regulation then came about, and Dodd Frank is probably an 270 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 1: overswing uh too much micro management. Uh. The really important 271 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 1: things in Dodd Frank are much higher capital standards UH, 272 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 1: and much higher liquidity and lower leverage. That's what matters. 273 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 1: And you can take away a lot of things like 274 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: vulgar and all other stuff. As long as you keep 275 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 1: those things, the system will be a whole lot safer. Uh. 276 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: The rest of Washington. You know, we're gonna learn a 277 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: lot in the next two or three months. We've got 278 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 1: that ceiling, we've got the budget, We've got trade discussions 279 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 1: with Mexico and Canada and with China, and I think 280 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 1: over the next two or three months we're gonna learn 281 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 1: whether we have a functioning reasonably stable, effective governance or 282 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 1: whether we have something that's a little less than that. 283 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 1: Do you think we have a tendency to overplay the 284 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,880 Speaker 1: role that Washington plays in the economy. Right now, we're 285 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:26,199 Speaker 1: fascinated by this new Washington for better or worse? Um 286 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 1: do we do? We positive it has more influence than 287 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 1: it really does. I actually I would say that's not true, okay. 288 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 1: And the reason is if you look at let's take 289 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 1: the stock market. The stock market is the value of 290 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 1: a stock is a function of its earnings, and it's multiple, okay. 291 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 1: Multiples are a function of confidence. So if you take 292 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 1: away confidence in the effectiveness of our government, that has 293 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: a negative effect and not a small one on the 294 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 1: valuation of our markets. That follows through to the economy. 295 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 1: And we saw that. You know, if you go back 296 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,399 Speaker 1: over the last five years, what are the big you 297 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: know down drafts and equities, house business doing in Washington? 298 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:15,919 Speaker 1: You're one of the you know, fancy guys in business 299 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:19,480 Speaker 1: that goes down to Washington. I don't know, we're not 300 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 1: right now, you don't, but but the turmoil has been extraordinary. 301 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 1: Let's begin with Mr Cohen. I mean, you're a great watcher, Walster. 302 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 1: You've known Mr Cohen's work at Goldman Sex for years. 303 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:34,120 Speaker 1: Can a non economist run the federal reserve system is 304 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:38,040 Speaker 1: is rumored. Maybe where was he the frisky oyster in 305 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,959 Speaker 1: the hand, wasn't the frisky oyster? You've been to them? 306 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 1: You want all the cornerbars the oyster, don't you know? 307 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 1: Don't I'm sorry? Can he run the Fed? Uh? Sure? 308 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:53,160 Speaker 1: Look the the what the FED chairman has to be? 309 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 1: He does not have to be or she doesn't have 310 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:59,440 Speaker 1: to be the world's greatest economist or the world's greatest pregnancy. 311 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 1: Would say it's an advantage. It could be an advantage. 312 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: But you know there there are plenty of really smart people, 313 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 1: uh with deep economic backgrounds on the Open Market Committee 314 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 1: and also the staff of the Fed. Uh. Really what 315 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,000 Speaker 1: that person has to be as someone who is uh 316 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: measured and understands the balance between uh, you know, growth 317 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 1: and inflation and employment and an inflation. And I don't 318 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:30,879 Speaker 1: think you need to be an economist to do that, 319 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,520 Speaker 1: to be honest, I think if you've got a long 320 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,200 Speaker 1: experience in financial markets, you can do that job as well. 321 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: I was gonna ask you yesterday if you were going 322 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 1: to run uber, but we didn't. We didn't. We didn't 323 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: get there. I mean, Mr, you know, you look at 324 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,760 Speaker 1: some of the corporate going on, the people out the door, 325 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 1: people in the door or that. What does it say 326 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 1: about the tumult and the CEO of the CEO? Statistically, 327 00:19:55,520 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 1: the life of CEOs in their seat has shortened fair amount. Uh, 328 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,639 Speaker 1: you know, it's now down that I think fiber I 329 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 1: saw you check in your phone. Well I'm up till 330 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,440 Speaker 1: eight and a half, so I guess I'm an ALP. 331 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 1: But look they're uh, the tolerance of investors uh is shorter. 332 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 1: The you know, the activists have played a role in that. 333 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 1: And uh, by the way, some of these things are constructive. 334 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:31,399 Speaker 1: The the tolerance on the part of boards uh for 335 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: uh you know, behavior that is not proper by any 336 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 1: measure has declined. And I actually think that's a good thing. 337 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:46,120 Speaker 1: We should have a high standard of behavior for our 338 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 1: corporate executives, whether it's respect for uh, you know, various genders, 339 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 1: or sexual preferences, or religious orientations or racial orientation. And 340 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,679 Speaker 1: you know, I think the the steps that were taken 341 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,360 Speaker 1: by a number of corporate executives over the last week 342 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 1: or so to stand up and and uh speak very 343 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:13,439 Speaker 1: strongly about that is really important. How heavy a burden 344 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,120 Speaker 1: is there on the bank executive these days? I think 345 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,480 Speaker 1: of how much we associate Lloyd blank Find with Goldman Sax, 346 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,120 Speaker 1: Jamie Diamond with a JP Morgan, you with ever Corps. 347 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 1: Does one person have too much determinism at these banks 348 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,679 Speaker 1: right now? Do you think is that association a bad thing? 349 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:30,440 Speaker 1: How do you see your role as as the leader 350 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 1: of a bank? Well, you know, my job is quite 351 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 1: a bit different from uh, Jamie and Lloyd's job, and 352 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 1: they do both a great job at what they do. Uh. 353 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 1: They have to worry. They are stewards for literally tens 354 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 1: of billions, in Jamie's case, hundreds of billions of dollars 355 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 1: of capital. So you've got to worry every day that 356 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 1: will some whale in London do something that I'm not 357 00:21:56,200 --> 00:22:00,920 Speaker 1: aware of and embarrass the firm. Uh. You know my case. 358 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 1: You know, I run a really talented basketball team. Uh, 359 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 1: and I got to make sure that they play well together. Uh, 360 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:15,199 Speaker 1: and that they the stars are all happy. But I'm not. 361 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 1: I don't wake up at two in the morning wondering 362 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 1: what some mammal has done. Surface. Yes, well, thank you 363 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: so much. Real with his president, he's the chief executive 364 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:38,680 Speaker 1: officer of ever Court, David Gern Tom Keane. We're looking 365 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 1: at images. Um, I have to turn around in the 366 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 1: surveillance throne. It's like the throne and Game of Thrones. 367 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 1: I sit in, but it's a little hard to turn 368 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:50,919 Speaker 1: around tall. Yeah, metal bleak, and there is a bleak 369 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 1: day in Washington. David Girl. This is the rain. It 370 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:57,400 Speaker 1: touches New York. But you really wonder does the storm 371 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:02,040 Speaker 1: of Texas touch shop to a little bit of rain 372 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:04,040 Speaker 1: in Washington as well. I think it's bound to happen 373 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 1: from what I was hearing the earlier this morning. But 374 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 1: the President preparing to head to Corpus Christy at Texas. 375 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: We're looking at air Force one there on the tarmac 376 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 1: at Andrews Air Force Base. He and the First Lady 377 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 1: headed to Texas in just a few minutes, and they'll 378 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: be both in Corpus Christine Austin. Today from Maine, we 379 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 1: heard from the younger President Bush UH and President Senior 380 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,679 Speaker 1: I think was involved as well, about the grit of 381 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:32,159 Speaker 1: Texas UH United Texas during Hurricane Harvey. David Girl, why 382 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,639 Speaker 1: don't you bring in the esteem congressman from the thirty 383 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:38,639 Speaker 1: second Congressional District. This is somewhere in the vicinity of 384 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,679 Speaker 1: most people rooting for the Dallas Cowboys. I believe the 385 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,520 Speaker 1: case in that district, and I believe he can count. 386 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 1: President Bush is one of his constituents and Congressman Texas 387 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:50,920 Speaker 1: with the House of Rules Committee as well joints on 388 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 1: our phone's cashman sessions. Let's just start with what you've 389 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,239 Speaker 1: been hearing. UH. You're you're a little ways away from 390 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: where this this storm has been. It's been hanging over Houston, 391 00:23:58,040 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 1: it's headed out to the Gulf. But what have you 392 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,120 Speaker 1: heard from friends and family in Texas about the impact 393 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 1: of the storm thus far? And what have you been 394 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 1: communicating to your colleagues who don't live in Texas about 395 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 1: what needs to happen there. Yeah, yeah, you you ask 396 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 1: a great question, and we can roll back the tape 397 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,200 Speaker 1: on the things that happened with Katrina and Sandy. There 398 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: are there are similarities of both of those. One a 399 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 1: big package that's going to have to be prepared, where 400 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 1: Congress is going to have to be prepared for an 401 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 1: initial package. We're going to have to make sure the 402 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,239 Speaker 1: second and third package or whatever the long term is 403 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 1: UH is properly tailored only to the devastation of of 404 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 1: this product of Harvey. In the shorter term. What we're 405 00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,439 Speaker 1: talking about now is how do we match up schools 406 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 1: to bring students and parents at least one parent up here. 407 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 1: How do we look take a look at what typhoid 408 00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:02,760 Speaker 1: and technis and diarrhea and the the medical outputs of this. 409 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 1: How do we take care of elderly people and babies, 410 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:10,639 Speaker 1: babies that were in the hospital, hospitals that can no 411 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:17,679 Speaker 1: longer support surgeries. How do we move those surgeries to Dallas, Austin, 412 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:23,119 Speaker 1: San Antonio. How do we manage the problems where we 413 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 1: have seniors who are in in assisted living, who are 414 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 1: in beds, and how do we move them? How do 415 00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 1: we move people from this terrible scene which is not 416 00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:47,399 Speaker 1: going to go away, mud debris, the black mold to follow, humidity, misery. 417 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,360 Speaker 1: Where this is a long term effort. It is not 418 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 1: a small downtown area. It is millions of people and 419 00:25:55,720 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 1: it's still raining and a by you there is waiting 420 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:04,679 Speaker 1: to be inundated. Fortunately that the earth and a damn 421 00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 1: is holding, the levy is holding God is great. But 422 00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:14,600 Speaker 1: we're going to work together in God's name because we 423 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 1: believe as Texans in each other. So long term effort, 424 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:23,480 Speaker 1: this is not this is months of bringing our children 425 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 1: to back to safety, bringing our community back where we 426 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:29,840 Speaker 1: need to be. So we got a long way to go. Couson, 427 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,400 Speaker 1: We're watching Marine one land at Andrew's Air Force Base. 428 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 1: The President going to disembark from that helicopter just a 429 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:36,920 Speaker 1: moment to get onto Air Force one to head down 430 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 1: to Texas. A lot has been made of how unprecedented 431 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 1: this storm is. It's been called variously a hundred years storm, 432 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,680 Speaker 1: a five year storm. What have you learned a thousand years? 433 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,639 Speaker 1: And what have you learned in Congress from Superstorm Sandy, 434 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 1: from Hurricane Katrina about how to respond to disasters like this? 435 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,640 Speaker 1: Have we gotten better? Has the federal government gotten better 436 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:59,120 Speaker 1: at responding to disasters? I think we have gotten better. 437 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 1: What we have gotten better at is how do we 438 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 1: fund in? What all do we throw in? And who 439 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,959 Speaker 1: uses this as an excuse for things? I will guarantee 440 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:13,240 Speaker 1: you the Texas delegation is not going to allow that 441 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 1: to happen this time. We have had some We've got 442 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 1: some pretty sharp pencils. We've got people who who see 443 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 1: this for what it is. But you just asked the 444 00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:27,359 Speaker 1: right question. Much of the nation's infrastructure from energy is 445 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 1: located here, much of the infrastructure that handles pipelines. It 446 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 1: is a big deal. You've been doing this. I I 447 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,439 Speaker 1: don't want to remind you of this conre what You've 448 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 1: been doing this for twenty years. I mean, it's it's 449 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,919 Speaker 1: it's it's been a long time, to say the least. 450 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 1: A number of the research knows we have from Greg Villier, 451 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 1: from Mike Gallen over at Access and others is that 452 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:56,960 Speaker 1: this horrific disaster provides you Republicans, Democrats and all in 453 00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:02,920 Speaker 1: Washington for convenient cover. Does the debt worries, the ceiling worries, 454 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:09,440 Speaker 1: the shutdown worries, do they evaporate with this deluge called Harvey. 455 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 1: I think they do. I think it focuses us. Let 456 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,920 Speaker 1: me see if I can go the most immediate thing 457 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:20,800 Speaker 1: that I have been pressing. The President needs to finalize 458 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,680 Speaker 1: every one of his slots that he needs to run 459 00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:28,320 Speaker 1: this government, person after person after person. Thank goodness, we're 460 00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 1: not complaining, but the people we're dealing with, our acting people, 461 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 1: they are not in control. They're not going to be 462 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,040 Speaker 1: in the long term. They're they're not going to be 463 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 1: held accountable. And the Senate needs to approve every one 464 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,720 Speaker 1: of these people unless there's a reason why not. Obviously, 465 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 1: but we need to weed this government better be prepared 466 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:55,600 Speaker 1: for a long, long, big problem with decision makers. Uh. Secondly, 467 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 1: where are we going to move We are going to 468 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,080 Speaker 1: have to make that limit. We are going to have 469 00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 1: to do things, but it's now going to be on 470 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 1: a priority. We're not We're not just gonna say we're 471 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,720 Speaker 1: gonna add fifty billion dollars and it does. It didn't 472 00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,800 Speaker 1: count Carson account the time we got left with you. 473 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 1: I want David Gore to jump in here. But as 474 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:20,920 Speaker 1: a general question, is the support of traditional Republicans is 475 00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 1: have they lost their support of Mr? Trump? Is the 476 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 1: president still have a support of Bush Republicans in the 477 00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 1: thirty second district? Oh, that's that's a valid question. Can 478 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 1: we get a valid answer right now? I mean, I 479 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,240 Speaker 1: know you, I mean you know, I know you're focusing 480 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 1: on Southwestern preseason. But come on, well, so, so let's 481 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 1: so let's let's put this into a perspective. What we 482 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 1: are is I so here's what I believe. I know 483 00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:58,560 Speaker 1: Jerry Jones, so I know Donald Trump and Jerry Jones 484 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 1: for several years has wandered in the dark and tried 485 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 1: to beat things that was not his his suit. Jerry 486 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 1: Jones and Donald Trump are the same person. And Jerry 487 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:13,280 Speaker 1: Jones quit trying to run the football team and became 488 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 1: what he was comfortable with and what he made friends with. 489 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,040 Speaker 1: He became the NFL Man of the Year and has 490 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:24,120 Speaker 1: changed the NFL. Donald Trump needs to figure out where 491 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,840 Speaker 1: his talents best talents are and then he will lend 492 00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,520 Speaker 1: them to them. And so really Texans are in in 493 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 1: in Dallas, Texas very hopeful that the president very quickly 494 00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,080 Speaker 1: is going to get his team around him, which he 495 00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 1: does not have. You don't start a bar room fight 496 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 1: until you got your team there. He did, he is 497 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:50,160 Speaker 1: further along in certain elements that are not favorable to him. 498 00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,240 Speaker 1: So where are most people down here? We need the 499 00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:55,840 Speaker 1: presidents and going to perform well. We want to make 500 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 1: America great. But he's got to get his team and 501 00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 1: he's got to do like Jerry Jones, do the things 502 00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 1: that he's comfortable with and let his talent show. That's 503 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 1: where we are, David. Do you see how every time 504 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 1: we talked to a damn congressman from Texas, he did 505 00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:15,000 Speaker 1: everything but mentioned J. J. Watt. Every conversation turns around 506 00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 1: to football and the dreaded Dallas Cowboys go very quick. 507 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,400 Speaker 1: We got about thirty seconds left here cars. Jerry Jones 508 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,440 Speaker 1: had some time to make that transformation. How much time 509 00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 1: are you and your constituents prepared to give this president? 510 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 1: This is the point, learn quickly, Mr President, learned quickly 511 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 1: make friends when the things you're supposed to do get 512 00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 1: top flight. People, he's got some listen to him and 513 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,600 Speaker 1: and go go find out what your strike zone is. 514 00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,719 Speaker 1: And then remember the success for rain Dance has a 515 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:47,520 Speaker 1: lot to do with timing. Now's the time. Pete Sessions 516 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,959 Speaker 1: from Texas, Republican from Teas said he's got the toughest 517 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,400 Speaker 1: job in Texas. You know what's he doing when one 518 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,000 Speaker 1: of the bushes called up, Well, you know, I was 519 00:31:56,080 --> 00:32:00,120 Speaker 1: thinking some zoning issues, whatever whatever it may be. To 520 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 1: field those calls. Peze Sessions of the thirty seconds from 521 00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 1: district in tex should say, yeah, the chairman of the 522 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:18,160 Speaker 1: House Rules Committee, join us on our phone lines. This 523 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,880 Speaker 1: is a really important interview. In fact, I would argue, folks, 524 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,680 Speaker 1: this is the interview of the day. Uh. The gentleman 525 00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:28,000 Speaker 1: is from the Heritage Foundation, and he understands the distance 526 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:35,040 Speaker 1: from Vladivostok to SUPPORTO from Vladivostok to Tokyo, and much 527 00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:39,520 Speaker 1: more importantly the car ride from Vladivostok to the border 528 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:43,680 Speaker 1: of North Korea where it meets with China. Bruce Clinger 529 00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:47,800 Speaker 1: is with the Heritage Foundation UH with an extraordinary career 530 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:51,400 Speaker 1: with CIA in defense as well. Mr Clinger joining us 531 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,400 Speaker 1: on our phone lines. Spruce, let me ask the easy 532 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:57,080 Speaker 1: question before David asked smarter questions. Do we have a 533 00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,960 Speaker 1: clue what the North Koreans are doing? We we underestimated 534 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,880 Speaker 1: intelligence on Russia back in the time of Gorbuschev. Do 535 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:09,040 Speaker 1: we have a knowledge base on North Korea? Well, in 536 00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,600 Speaker 1: North Korea we referred to as c I A as 537 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,160 Speaker 1: the hardest of the hard targets. And when I used 538 00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 1: to work the Soviet Union and then switched over to 539 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,720 Speaker 1: North Korea, I was sort of amazed at how much 540 00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:22,240 Speaker 1: less we knew about North Korea than the Soviet Union. Uh. 541 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:25,640 Speaker 1: You know that said our our knowledge on different subjects 542 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 1: as are varies. We have a greater knowledge of conventional 543 00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:32,280 Speaker 1: forces than you know the exact number of nuclear weapons. 544 00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:36,080 Speaker 1: But we also have decades of experience with North Korean 545 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 1: actions and have a fairly good idea of what they 546 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,760 Speaker 1: do and don't do. Um. You know, the North Korean 547 00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:45,080 Speaker 1: leader is not irrational. He's not crazy as as some 548 00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 1: pointed out. Uh, nor was his father. Obviously a brutal, 549 00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:52,240 Speaker 1: terrible dictator, but not uh you know, going to wake 550 00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,120 Speaker 1: up some morning and just start a nuclear war. Uh. 551 00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 1: You know, we know that they're continuing their quest for 552 00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,120 Speaker 1: the ability to hit the United States. It's in our 553 00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:04,000 Speaker 1: allies with nuclear weapons. They can already do that to 554 00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:06,880 Speaker 1: South Korea and Japan. And then now they're continuing their 555 00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 1: development as several other missiles, missiles that can hit our 556 00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,640 Speaker 1: bases in Guam as well as uh the I C 557 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 1: B M which we saw fly twice in July. Bruce, 558 00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,719 Speaker 1: what what do we have at our disposal now? I 559 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:20,760 Speaker 1: read the statement earlier on the show from the President 560 00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,680 Speaker 1: about the most recent missile test. I read a statement 561 00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:27,440 Speaker 1: from the UN Secretary General as well. Sanctions have been 562 00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:29,080 Speaker 1: tried time and time again. I think one of our 563 00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,520 Speaker 1: eighth round of sanctions here against North Korea from from 564 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:35,359 Speaker 1: the U N. What's left in that tool kit? And 565 00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:39,399 Speaker 1: there there seems to be wide distaste or or trepidation 566 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,040 Speaker 1: about some sort of military action here. But what's left 567 00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 1: at the U S is disposed at this point to 568 00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:48,080 Speaker 1: deal with what we've seen North Korea doing. Well, it's there. 569 00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:50,360 Speaker 1: As people have said, North Korea is the land of 570 00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 1: bad options. Um, you know, with with sanctions, I'd argue 571 00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:58,480 Speaker 1: there's a lot of misperceptions or mischaracterizations. Is that, you know, 572 00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,319 Speaker 1: when people say sanctions have failed, it's more like, you know, 573 00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 1: timid incremental implementation of sanctions have failed. It's like if 574 00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:08,479 Speaker 1: the mayor of a city says he's very tough on crime, 575 00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,360 Speaker 1: but then directs the police not to arrest many of 576 00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,520 Speaker 1: the criminals. Well, you know, you you shouldn't blame the police, 577 00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:18,279 Speaker 1: or you couldn't blame the laws themselves. So uh. You know, 578 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,960 Speaker 1: the US, for example, as unilaterally imposed twelve billion dollars 579 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 1: in fines on European banks for money laundering for I Run, 580 00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,839 Speaker 1: We've imposed zero dollars and fines on any Chinese bank. 581 00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,279 Speaker 1: Last year was the first year that the US had 582 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:37,520 Speaker 1: finally finally cumulatively sanctioned as many North Korean entities as 583 00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:41,440 Speaker 1: we have sanctioned those of Sudan Szababwe. So you know, 584 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,840 Speaker 1: we have been pulling our punches recently, the administration has 585 00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:48,000 Speaker 1: has started to go after some secondary violators in China. 586 00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:50,800 Speaker 1: I'm hoping we'll see much more of that. Chris Clinger 587 00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:54,040 Speaker 1: where this with the Heritage Foundation. Robert sent you mailing 588 00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:56,160 Speaker 1: and thank you Bob for listening this morning. And on 589 00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:59,400 Speaker 1: your good question, David, I'm strong Yanni also mentions a 590 00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:04,400 Speaker 1: current account surpluses in Japan and Eurozone supporting those currencies. 591 00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,560 Speaker 1: But again, I guess it's the idea of stability there, 592 00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:11,600 Speaker 1: brisk Clinger within that can Japan defend itself or are 593 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:14,160 Speaker 1: they at risk and in harm's way because of the 594 00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:18,759 Speaker 1: ghosts of World War Two? Well, they do have a 595 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,520 Speaker 1: fairly extensive ballistic missile defense network. The other times that 596 00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:27,160 Speaker 1: North Korea flew over them with missiles in two thousand 597 00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,480 Speaker 1: nine really spurred a deployment as well. Okay, well, then 598 00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:32,719 Speaker 1: why didn't they shoot this missile lot of the sky. 599 00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,319 Speaker 1: That's been our money question this morning. I mean, if 600 00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:37,239 Speaker 1: if you're not going to shoot this one out, which 601 00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,480 Speaker 1: one are you going to shoot? Well, it's really a 602 00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:42,439 Speaker 1: matter of physics. Is by the time a North Korean 603 00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:45,240 Speaker 1: missile is flying over Japan and not directed at Japan, 604 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:49,799 Speaker 1: it's higher than the capability of the standard missile three 605 00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,360 Speaker 1: missiles that they have. So it'd be like a shortstop 606 00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,400 Speaker 1: saying I'm going to catch every ball to the outfield. 607 00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:56,880 Speaker 1: Well it's simply over as heavy can't reach it. But 608 00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:00,359 Speaker 1: if the missile were directed at Japan, just to the ball, 609 00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:02,720 Speaker 1: directed at a short step, well then they came intercept 610 00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,200 Speaker 1: it because it's within range. See this works because Mr 611 00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:10,799 Speaker 1: Klinger understands David, it's trigonometry. Tuesday. That's how we got 612 00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,120 Speaker 1: into tangent data. I thought, I thought that it might 613 00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:16,640 Speaker 1: be what's what's the what's what's your prescription here? With 614 00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,800 Speaker 1: how to deal with China. The President met with the 615 00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:23,200 Speaker 1: President of China in Florida. By his account, they hit 616 00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:25,080 Speaker 1: things off, they had a good relationship. Just a couple 617 00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:28,080 Speaker 1: of months later he expressed his disappointment on Twitter and 618 00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:31,279 Speaker 1: in public just about how little China had done with 619 00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,919 Speaker 1: regard to enforcing sanctions on on North Korea. What more 620 00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:36,640 Speaker 1: can can China be doing? How do how do you 621 00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:40,560 Speaker 1: compel China to do more? Well, there, I'd say there 622 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,759 Speaker 1: we need to divorce diplomacy from law enforcement. So with 623 00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:48,160 Speaker 1: diplomacy we continue to cajole, implore, pressure, China to do 624 00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:52,280 Speaker 1: more to implement what are required U N. Security Council 625 00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:56,520 Speaker 1: Resolution sanctions. Uh. You know, so North Korea, I'm sorry. China. 626 00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,359 Speaker 1: They always talk a good game. They always promise every 627 00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:02,120 Speaker 1: success of president that they'll do more. Uh, and we've 628 00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:05,640 Speaker 1: always been disappointed. So you know, that's the diplomatic track. 629 00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:10,840 Speaker 1: It's been frustrating. Beijing is allowed incrementally stronger resolutions, but 630 00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:14,719 Speaker 1: then they tend under enforce them. But the US can 631 00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,319 Speaker 1: actually do a lot with our own laws. Because the 632 00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:21,120 Speaker 1: vast majority of international financial transactions in the world are 633 00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:24,879 Speaker 1: denominated in dollars, and that includes China's and North Korea's. 634 00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:27,360 Speaker 1: That means they have to go through US banks. That 635 00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:30,280 Speaker 1: actually gives us tremendous levels that we have not been using. 636 00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:34,080 Speaker 1: So we can seize and freeze assets, we can impose 637 00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:38,720 Speaker 1: fines on entities. We can uh prevent them from access 638 00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:40,719 Speaker 1: in the US financial system, which is a kiss of 639 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:44,360 Speaker 1: death for any financial institution. We haven't been doing that. 640 00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:47,880 Speaker 1: And you can you can influence, you can wean away, 641 00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,560 Speaker 1: you can peel away the Chinese banks and businesses that 642 00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:53,640 Speaker 1: have been dealing with North Korea, regardless of what the 643 00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:56,640 Speaker 1: Chinese government wants or doesn't want. So we saw in 644 00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:59,400 Speaker 1: the past when we we took that action in two thousand, 645 00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:02,840 Speaker 1: five thousand six, we got the Bank of China to 646 00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:06,360 Speaker 1: defy the government of China and cut off its engagement 647 00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,680 Speaker 1: with North Korea. Well, then the US backtracked, we reverse 648 00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:13,000 Speaker 1: the uh the decision, and and then Bank of China 649 00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,480 Speaker 1: went back to engaging with North Korea. So sort of 650 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,640 Speaker 1: regardless of what China, the Chinese government is saying, we 651 00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,799 Speaker 1: can influence those Chinese banks and businesses to make have 652 00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:23,960 Speaker 1: them make the decision do you want to do business 653 00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:25,720 Speaker 1: with North Korea? Where do you want to have access 654 00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,560 Speaker 1: to the US financial systems. Clinger thank you so much. 655 00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:32,040 Speaker 1: He is with the Heritage Foundation. Of course, the former 656 00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:35,799 Speaker 1: c I a deputy division chief for A Korea. Very 657 00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:38,480 Speaker 1: valuable comments as well. It is great to be back. 658 00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:42,000 Speaker 1: Thanks to all of our surveillance team for moving forward 659 00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:43,920 Speaker 1: to August. I really look at this, David as the 660 00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,840 Speaker 1: beginning of September really the beginning of the fall season 661 00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,800 Speaker 1: with the news flow has been extraordinary. Day. Of course, 662 00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:55,080 Speaker 1: I'm just so happy. I'm just so happy to be back. 663 00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:06,960 Speaker 1: M hmm. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillas podcast. 664 00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:12,640 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 665 00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:17,040 Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene. 666 00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:21,480 Speaker 1: David Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you 667 00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:24,799 Speaker 1: can always catch US World one. I'm Bloomberg Radio