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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring

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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast. Certainly the conversation of

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Speaker 1: the morning for us. It's been quite a year with

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Speaker 1: this pandemic. I think now most people around most of

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Speaker 1: the world can see a light at the end of

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Speaker 1: the tunnel. It's because of the extraordinary science coming out

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Speaker 1: of the biotech and pharmaceutical industries. UH. And the next

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Speaker 1: guest is certainly right there, and we appreciate getting some

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Speaker 1: time from Dr newbar Afian. He has chairman and co

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Speaker 1: founder of Moderna is a publicly traded stock m r

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Speaker 1: n A on the NASDAC uh DRFA and it's also

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Speaker 1: founder and CEO of Flagship Pioneering based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. UH.

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Speaker 1: Dr Afaian, thank you how much for joining us. We

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Speaker 1: really appreciate your time, UH and we appreciate the extraordinary

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Speaker 1: work coming out of Moderna. The world is certainly thankful

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Speaker 1: for the good work from the good folks at MODERNA.

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Speaker 1: Give us an update of where you are with the

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Speaker 1: vaccine in terms of global distribution and production. Well, first,

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Speaker 1: thanks for having me and for the kind words. And

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Speaker 1: it has been uh, you know, twelve months that seems

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Speaker 1: like we're still frozen left in left March when we

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Speaker 1: started going down this path, and the progress that has

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Speaker 1: been has been really great to witness. And with all

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Speaker 1: the work downstream of distributing the vaccine, we're beginning to

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Speaker 1: see the impact that we all hoped for. In terms

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Speaker 1: of where we are right now, there's a lot going

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Speaker 1: on across many fronts. Production front, we were initially heavily

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Speaker 1: focused on the US production. We've now wrapped up our

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Speaker 1: European production in Switzer and through our partners, and that

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Speaker 1: distribution is enabling us to get volumes throughout the world

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Speaker 1: where we've had early orders from from various countries that

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Speaker 1: we've announced um. Second, we have announced a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago that we're that we've both been testing our

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Speaker 1: current UH initial vaccine that's already being deployed, but also

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Speaker 1: testing some vaccines that that also have additional variations to them.

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Speaker 1: In one case, a variant that is designed to tackle

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Speaker 1: more directly the South African variant, because well, we don't

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Speaker 1: know whether that variant will oppose problems a long term,

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Speaker 1: we want to be ready if it does. So, so

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Speaker 1: our technology lends itself to a very rapid response and

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Speaker 1: we can change essentially the code of the of the

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Speaker 1: m R and A we use and very quickly have

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Speaker 1: a slightly different immune response. We also have announced going

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Speaker 1: into younger populations to have to eighteen and just yesterday

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Speaker 1: we are now starting our trial phase two three trials

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Speaker 1: that will be a careful trial going from twelve down

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Speaker 1: to six month old. We think it's very very important

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Speaker 1: that that piece of the population be protected as well,

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Speaker 1: because that's where much of the damage in terms of

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Speaker 1: learning loss and school attendance has been felt, and we

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Speaker 1: very much want to make sure that we can also

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Speaker 1: get an effective and safe vaccine. There so a lot

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Speaker 1: of different activities going on. How many doses doctor, do

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Speaker 1: you think you can produce max this year and how

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Speaker 1: many can you produce next year? I mean, what are

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Speaker 1: the biggest head winds and tail winds? But what are

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Speaker 1: the numbers you think you can hit? Um But Durna

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Speaker 1: has announced publicly that we have ramped up our productions

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Speaker 1: such that we think that we'll be able to get

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Speaker 1: up to a billion doses this year. Certainly feel comfortable

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Speaker 1: with the seven eight million dollars somehow many million dose numbers,

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Speaker 1: but we've put in place and have many investments to

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Speaker 1: enable production going up to a billion doses. That's just

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Speaker 1: this year. I'll run mind your audience. That are vaccines.

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Speaker 1: Since it was developed first and most rapidly in the beginning,

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Speaker 1: we basically decided to go after the highest those we

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Speaker 1: could we could use and and dose twice. The reason

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Speaker 1: for that was to be able to get the maximum

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Speaker 1: level of protection, and that was evidenced in the efficacy

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Speaker 1: numbers we saw. We are, however, as we speak, also

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Speaker 1: testing other dose levels that are lower than the four

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Speaker 1: hundred micrograms, particularly when it comes to the booster. We've

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Speaker 1: said publicly we're testing fifty micrograms and the found micrograms

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Speaker 1: in a booster shop and and and the reason that's

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Speaker 1: important is that should that be effective or even equally effective,

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Speaker 1: we just don't know until we test. Then of course,

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Speaker 1: the production volume could increase by two to four times

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Speaker 1: the number that I told you simply because there would

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Speaker 1: be the dose levels would be reduced. Again, we need

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Speaker 1: evidence for that. But but what the numbers I just

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Speaker 1: gave you were at the maximum two doses at a

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Speaker 1: hundred microgram exture. We expect those numbers even at the

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Speaker 1: baseline level, even if we just stop to the same

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Speaker 1: high dose levels, we could probably increase that by another

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Speaker 1: perhaps even higher than that. UH. And we're working with

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Speaker 1: our partners all around the world to estimate what kind

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Speaker 1: of demand we will have UH in view of all

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Speaker 1: the other vaccines that also are being developed. And it

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Speaker 1: is a global pandemic, and we're gonna have to vaccinate

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Speaker 1: essentially everyone, ideally or at least as many people as

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Speaker 1: are willing to participate in and and that's going to

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Speaker 1: require multiple different producers. Will certainly do our part. Dr Fine,

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Speaker 1: I'll love to get your thoughts on what's happening in Europe.

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Speaker 1: I mean you compare that we have. You know, in

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Speaker 1: the United States more population has received at least one dose.

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Speaker 1: Those numbers are much much lower across Europe, frustrating many

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Speaker 1: of the folks there, And recently've had many countries halt

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Speaker 1: the astra zeneca UH. Vaccination. What is your sense of

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Speaker 1: what's going on in Europe? Are they being too cautious

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Speaker 1: with the AstraZeneca vaccine in a political issue? You know,

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Speaker 1: I can't comment on the political side, but let me

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Speaker 1: just start by saying that the regulatory agencies and the

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Speaker 1: health agencies in each of these countries, I believe are

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Speaker 1: well armed to explore the facts around each of the reports,

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Speaker 1: and they have to do that. And I think that

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Speaker 1: there is a scientific way to determine the causal links

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Speaker 1: of of what's been observed so that we don't kind

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Speaker 1: of conflate what maybe correlation or a number of events

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Speaker 1: that would happen when that many people I enter a program,

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Speaker 1: any vaccine program. Keep in mind, these are numbers that

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Speaker 1: generally we don't see, let alone in such a short

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Speaker 1: period of time. Maybe the flu vaccine is the is

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Speaker 1: one of the most abundantly used ones, and they don't

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Speaker 1: compare to the numbers that we're that we're getting to

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Speaker 1: h and so I think that the regulatory health agencies

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Speaker 1: have to follow these things and get at the fact.

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Speaker 1: In the meantime, speculation about this is completely onwul and

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Speaker 1: and it's rampant. There's a lot of expert speculation about

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Speaker 1: it could be this, it could be that, and and

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Speaker 1: I just think we have to keep in mind that

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Speaker 1: we're gonna need multiple vaccine types in order to do

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Speaker 1: the job. It's really important that we handle each of

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Speaker 1: them without in the meantime, E wrote in confidence. And

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Speaker 1: so I think people are doing the right thing. It

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Speaker 1: is up to each country to decide what they do

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Speaker 1: when they're gathering the fact. But I don't think anybody

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Speaker 1: should assume that when they suspend a distribution of vaccine

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Speaker 1: that therefore means there's something wrong with it. What it

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Speaker 1: means is that the process to figure that out takes

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Speaker 1: a little bit of time, and in that timeframe, they're

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Speaker 1: choosing to be safer because they're balancing the impact of

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Speaker 1: a vaccine helping avoid infections with the potential risk that

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Speaker 1: is perceived. And that's the decision they make. Even though

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Speaker 1: you're even though you founded the company and you're the chairman,

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Speaker 1: were you impressed with the speed of development as well?

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Speaker 1: I mean, um, you know you astounded the likes of

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Speaker 1: Bill Gates, who has a lot of experience in in vaccines,

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Speaker 1: and um, I wonder if you can use what you

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Speaker 1: found to develop other things as quickly as you did

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Speaker 1: with this. Well, there, there's a couple of ways I

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Speaker 1: can answer that question. And so the answers, as you

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Speaker 1: might expect, yes and no. And here's why. First of all,

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Speaker 1: you know, Madarna was founded ten years ago for the

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Speaker 1: express purpose of building a platform the likes of which

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Speaker 1: have never existed that, for the first time, makes an

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Speaker 1: information molecule and code molecule, a messenger on a into

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Speaker 1: a drug. We've never seen that before. All the drugs

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Speaker 1: we used today are chemicals and proteins. They don't have

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Speaker 1: the characteristic of an information molecule where you can change

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Speaker 1: the code, get a different protein at will, recombine use

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Speaker 1: the same pieces in a slightly different way. So kind

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Speaker 1: of the notion of having a bit programmable, these are

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Speaker 1: not things that have been available, and so speed of

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Speaker 1: of design implementation has always been an important part of

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Speaker 1: our platform. The ironic part is that it almost doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter in normal times pharmaceutical development, because you have to

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Speaker 1: hurry up and wait right so you can do all

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Speaker 1: these things quickly, and then you have to wait for

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Speaker 1: years and years of clinical testing and trial. But in

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Speaker 1: a pandemic, when we could test it so rapidly. Actually,

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Speaker 1: the speed of being able to offer a solution was

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Speaker 1: not surprising. What was surprising was that the subsequent steps

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Speaker 1: were done so quickly, and that took a lot of

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Speaker 1: coordination with NIH, with FDA, with many many entities. And

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Speaker 1: what was surprising was that the number of things that

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Speaker 1: could have gone wrong along the way, very little of

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Speaker 1: which we controlled once we made the actual vaccine product. Actually, uh,

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Speaker 1: let's say UM complied or or or or or or

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Speaker 1: went our way, if you will, as well as our

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Speaker 1: fiser and bantech so that we could get to the

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Speaker 1: other end of the road. That is kind of the

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Speaker 1: more gratifying, you know, you don't want to say surprising,

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Speaker 1: because you of course hope that that's the case, but

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Speaker 1: it hardly ever ends up that way. Yeah, hey, Dcor,

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Speaker 1: we just you know, real quick and love to get

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Speaker 1: your thoughts on Rubious Therapeutics. I know you're on the

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Speaker 1: board of that company, and that's how to significant cancer

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Speaker 1: break there if you could briefly just kind of tell

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Speaker 1: us what's going on there, very briefly. Rubious is part

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Speaker 1: of the family of companies that have emerged out of

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Speaker 1: flagship pioneering, as is Maderna with a common thread of

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Speaker 1: it being based on a platform. In that case, we

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Speaker 1: engineered for the first time red cells, red blood cells

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Speaker 1: that when we gave two cancer patients alert their immune

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Speaker 1: system and activate them to go after the cancer. And

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Speaker 1: just this Monday, we announced preliminary data from our phase

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Speaker 1: one trial that showed very clearly in solid tumors that

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Speaker 1: otherwise I have no immune uh responses, that suddenly with

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Speaker 1: these red cells that we've developed, we saw two of

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Speaker 1: them show partial responses, multiple other ones showing the markers

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Speaker 1: of immune activation. And that's a whole new ray of

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Speaker 1: hope for solid tumors that we could use the body's

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Speaker 1: immune system. The interesting thing is that it's the same

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Speaker 1: immune system that we're deploying against with vaccines against the infection,

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Speaker 1: also now being trained to go after cancer, and so

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Speaker 1: different platforms will go about this in different ways, but

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Speaker 1: quite encouraging preliminary information. All right, well, we really appreciate

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Speaker 1: your time. Again, I know you're very busy with things well,

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Speaker 1: saving the world basically, so much respect Dr new bar

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Speaker 1: if I, and thank you so much for joining us

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Speaker 1: the chairman of MODERNA and also the CEO flagship. Let's

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Speaker 1: focus in on rates right now. We have Ed Alusani,

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Speaker 1: senior interest rate and Currency analyst at Columbia thread Needle

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Speaker 1: and Ed we're looking at right now at UM rates

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Speaker 1: that are all rising as investors sell off bonds. The

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Speaker 1: US tenure trading at one sixties six right now, the

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Speaker 1: thirty year at two forty almost two forty two. UM.

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Speaker 1: What do you expect for Drone Powell today? Yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be an interesting meeting. I mean, what markets are

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Speaker 1: essentially pricing is less doubt. Uh, There's less doubt around

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Speaker 1: the growth outlook in terms of growth improving in the

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Speaker 1: course of this year next year. There's less doubt about

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Speaker 1: the employment outlook in terms of the FED being able

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Speaker 1: to hit the maximum employment bogies over the next you know,

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Speaker 1: twoss to eighteen months and and start tapering. And there's

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Speaker 1: less doubt about the FED being able to meet its

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Speaker 1: inflation mandate UM, getting inflation to overshoot, anchoring inflation expectations

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Speaker 1: higher UM, and that's moving the entire rates complex higher.

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Speaker 1: And I think Power is going to have a tricky

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Speaker 1: communication problem here because the forecast, the economic projections you know,

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Speaker 1: by and large are going to reflect some of these trends.

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Speaker 1: Particularly in employment and growth. I think there's a question

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Speaker 1: mark around inflation and the communication challenges. UM, how do

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Speaker 1: you guide uh that funds rates or expectations for FED

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Speaker 1: funds rates in an environment where UM risks are starting

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Speaker 1: to scow to the upside UM and that's that's a

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Speaker 1: difficult spot for them. Yeah. So, I mean it does

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Speaker 1: the chairman run the risk of the market kind of

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Speaker 1: moving past him. I mean, it seems like he's going

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Speaker 1: to have to acknowledge what we're seeing in the marketplace today.

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Speaker 1: But I know that's a tight rope to walk. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's definitely a risk. You know, the

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Speaker 1: market participants of the way, like like ourselves, we're single

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Speaker 1: cell organisms. We uh, we don't we we we don't

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Speaker 1: parse this stuff, um at the level of details that

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Speaker 1: I think the FED expects us too. And UM. You know,

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Speaker 1: markets have started front running this in the course of

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Speaker 1: the past you know, four to five months, we've started

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Speaker 1: to bring forward the hiking cycle as the outlook for

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Speaker 1: for growth and inflation improved in in the last quarter

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Speaker 1: of UM. Now and you see, by the way, by

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Speaker 1: the way, you see a seventy chance that the FED

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Speaker 1: will hike at the end of two so even you're

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Speaker 1: bringing it into next year. Well that those are the

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Speaker 1: odds that are in in the swaps. So those are

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Speaker 1: the market odds, UM that are currently in the price. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so that's market pricing. You know, from my perspective, that's

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Speaker 1: that's quite aggressive. That leaves the Fed absolutely no room

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Speaker 1: for error in terms of achieving its inflation UH targets

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Speaker 1: and UH you know, let's let's take a step back.

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Speaker 1: The set has not achieved them in the course of

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Speaker 1: the past twenty five years. UM. Coming out of recession

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Speaker 1: and being able to hit these bogies within you know,

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Speaker 1: twelve twenty four months of a relatively deep recession, UH

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Speaker 1: would would really be quite extraordinary. End. So the markets

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Speaker 1: are pricing an exceptionally positive scenario for the FED in

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Speaker 1: the moment. Alright, ed, how about on the bond purchasing activity.

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Speaker 1: What kind of messaging do you think we will here

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Speaker 1: out of Chairman Pal today. I don't think we'll hear anything. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, guidance for the balance sheet has been anchored

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Speaker 1: by UM, you know, essentially this this this few that

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Speaker 1: they need to see substantial further progress in quotation marks

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Speaker 1: UM around improvement in the economy, both in labor and inflation. UM.

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Speaker 1: They've been exceptionally vague by by design around this, and

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Speaker 1: there's no indications that they need to adjust or that

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Speaker 1: they're willing to adjust this guidance UM at this stage.

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Speaker 1: You know, the threshold in my mind on that front

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Speaker 1: really remains whether there's there's a spillover from rates markets

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Speaker 1: into credit. If if credit spreads start to widen, financial

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Speaker 1: conditions start to tighten, particularly that happens in the distorterly way. UM,

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Speaker 1: there's a really good reason uh to I think engage

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Speaker 1: in in in strengthening guidance for the balance sheet or

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Speaker 1: maybe increasing purchases UM. At the moment, they have shown

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Speaker 1: no appetite to do that, uh, And I personally think that's, uh,

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Speaker 1: that's a little bit of an error on their part.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Bill Gross told Eric Shatzker in an interview

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Speaker 1: yesterday that he's been shorting the tenure um and we'll

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Speaker 1: continue to because he thinks the FED is gonna see

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Speaker 1: a jump in inflation to three to four plus per

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Speaker 1: cent um. And his point was, look, if if Powell

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Speaker 1: sees that for six to twelve months, it's going to

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Speaker 1: be difficult to hold the line. Well, I'll say, I'll say,

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Speaker 1: you know two things. Um. You know, the first, congratulations

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Speaker 1: to Bill Gross, but to um all the trades he

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Speaker 1: told us about, We're winners by the way. UM. Well,

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Speaker 1: so let let me let me give you some some

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Speaker 1: some weight to Powell's guidance. Powell has been pretty explicit

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Speaker 1: in saying that inflation will likely move up this year.

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Speaker 1: We have really good reasons for that to happen and

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Speaker 1: to have cod fence around that, and that's really base

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Speaker 1: effects from last year and the economy reopening, and there

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Speaker 1: are being some some pricing power, particularly in services. UM.

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Speaker 1: He's also been very very clear that the Fed is

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Speaker 1: going to view pretty much all of the inflation developments

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Speaker 1: this year as transitory. So um, you know, the Fed

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Speaker 1: seeing you know, three to four percent prints over the

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Speaker 1: next quarter in in in headline, CPI UH is not

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Speaker 1: going to change their reaction function. They have three committed

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Speaker 1: to not doing that. Now. Markets are obviously front running that.

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Speaker 1: We have been front running it now for the better

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Speaker 1: part of the last six months. And the question is

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Speaker 1: how much is enough? Um? The ultimate test Alright, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna We're gonna have to leave it there because the

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Speaker 1: time but that we'll touch base with you again as

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Speaker 1: we like to do. Ed Al Husseini Senior Interest Rate

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Speaker 1: and Currency Annalysts for Columbia Threat Needle Investments. Not only

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Speaker 1: is this guy one of my favorite Bloomberg reporters, he's

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Speaker 1: my mom's favorite at Bloomberg Reporter. That's big. Max Abelson

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Speaker 1: joins us now with a piece that he has written

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Speaker 1: on Donald Trump's fortune falling to two point three billion.

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Speaker 1: I gotta say, Max, when I first read this, I thought,

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Speaker 1: Pierre right, he has two point three billion dollars. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's really important to remember that. You know, the guy

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Speaker 1: is not like ten billion dollar worth the character he

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Speaker 1: thinks he is, but he really is worth something. And

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Speaker 1: that's why it's fun to work with people like Sophie

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Speaker 1: Alexander and Andrew Tarter uh and and the Bloomberg Data team,

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Speaker 1: because you know, we we use financial findings and um

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Speaker 1: loan documents and interviews with executives to really take an

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Speaker 1: honest look um and you know, the reality is in

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Speaker 1: honest look shows that the man is in trouble. But

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Speaker 1: before I say another word, I just have to tell

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Speaker 1: you how happy I'm to hear your voice and to

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Speaker 1: know your mother likes my journalism, and you know it's

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Speaker 1: it's it's fun for me to be able to work

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Speaker 1: on stories like this one. We we really had a

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Speaker 1: good time working on this. How people take a look

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Speaker 1: because it's a it's a it's a deep story and

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Speaker 1: a detailed story, but it's also really a fun one. Yeah, Max,

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Speaker 1: What I love about the story not just is the

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Speaker 1: content and the great writing, but the use of graphics

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Speaker 1: you guys had here, and it really break down, you know,

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Speaker 1: the different buckets of his assets and the and the

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Speaker 1: debt associated with that those assets. You get a sense

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Speaker 1: of what's happened to the value of those assets as

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Speaker 1: well as the income. One part of your story that

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Speaker 1: really jumped out of me, Max, as you talk about

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Speaker 1: he's got some debt coming due over the next several

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Speaker 1: years and uh, there's not a lot of support for

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Speaker 1: the Trump organization in the big banking circles. How do

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Speaker 1: you think that might play out? It is? It is

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Speaker 1: just so important. First of all, big shout out to

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Speaker 1: the design and development team that worked on on this

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Speaker 1: with us. I mean, it's you know, journalism is fun,

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Speaker 1: but it's made so much more vivid and interesting when

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Speaker 1: you get to work with data visualization specialists like the

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Speaker 1: ones we have a Bloomberg. It just makes it so

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Speaker 1: much fun to be a reporter when you're surrounded with

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Speaker 1: so much talent and and what they help us illustrate

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Speaker 1: and bring to life and make three dimensional is that

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Speaker 1: he has a debt problem. I mean, not only does

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Speaker 1: he have hundreds of millions of dollars of loans coming

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Speaker 1: do he's personally on the hook for a for a

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Speaker 1: pretty good chunk of that. And then what's really extraordinary,

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Speaker 1: because look, the reality is a lot of business people

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Speaker 1: have debt coming to a lot of business people have

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Speaker 1: hundreds of millions of debt. A lot of business people

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Speaker 1: even have some personally guaranteed debt. What's so unusual about

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is in the wake of the capital riot,

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Speaker 1: you saw banks like Dout your bank stand up and

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Speaker 1: say we are not going to do business with you anymore.

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Speaker 1: And that is not good. You do not want to

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Speaker 1: have hundreds of millions of dollars of personally guaranteed debt

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Speaker 1: and to have major global banks, you know, holding their

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Speaker 1: nose and saying we're not going to work with you.

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Speaker 1: So Donald Trump is going to rebound and you know what,

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Speaker 1: you can't discount that because Donald Trump has been in

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Speaker 1: trouble before and Donald Trump has rebounded before. So no

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Speaker 1: one should count this man now, no matter what they say,

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Speaker 1: no one should count this man out. But if he

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Speaker 1: is going to rebound, figuring out that debt is going

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Speaker 1: to be really important, and so well figuring out how

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Speaker 1: we can start making money, making money again in hotels.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Trump said, you know, the pandemic would disappear

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Speaker 1: like a miracle, and it hasn't. And that is not

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Speaker 1: good for someone with so much real estate and someone

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Speaker 1: with so many hotels. It's not just the banks that

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Speaker 1: have stopped working with him, right, Umkushman and Wakefield you wrote,

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Speaker 1: used to handle leasing for the Art Deco building downtown. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they don't anymore. Steve Roth, I wonder the guy who

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Speaker 1: runs Bornado he um explored a sale of the company

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Speaker 1: that runs those those buildings, is he gonna still want

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Speaker 1: to work with Donald Trump? Is the p g A

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Speaker 1: gonna want to ever work with Donald Trump again? I

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Speaker 1: mean a lot of these other parties no longer want

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Speaker 1: to be associated since the riot. Well, you know, I

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Speaker 1: think it's helpful to do what Trump sometimes doesn't do,

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Speaker 1: which is to be sort of really specific and and

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Speaker 1: to take things sort of one thing at a time.

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Speaker 1: So with p G A, if you're absolutely right, the

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Speaker 1: PGA of America, you know, um got rid of a

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Speaker 1: tournament next year. Um that was going to be a

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Speaker 1: Bedminster you know what, that's right, But you know what,

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Speaker 1: they had backed out of one golf tournament years ago,

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Speaker 1: and and then and then they got back into business

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Speaker 1: with him. So when it comes to golf, maybe we'll

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Speaker 1: see as the years go on, maybe maybe maybe golf

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Speaker 1: golf will will get get back with him. But then

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Speaker 1: but then there's a question of what happens with his brand.

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Speaker 1: You know what, Will he figure out a way of

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Speaker 1: getting seventy four million voters to become customers in a

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Speaker 1: way that bullies his business? You know that that's a possibility,

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Speaker 1: but he's gonna have to figure it out because there

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Speaker 1: isn't a natural path to getting seventy four million people

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Speaker 1: into you know, very expensive hotels or very expensive clubs

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Speaker 1: or very expensive golf courses. And then when you asked

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Speaker 1: about Tornado, you know the reality is that Lornado has

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Speaker 1: not thrown up their hands and said we're going to

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Speaker 1: stop being in business with Trump. But what they have

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Speaker 1: said is that they've looked at putting um these two

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Speaker 1: very big towers that are a huge part of Trump's

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Speaker 1: net worth on the market. So one thing that that

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg leaders and listeners should be on the lookout for

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Speaker 1: is what happens to those tornado towers wanted to Francisco

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Speaker 1: and one in New York. They may hold the key

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Speaker 1: to the future of Trump's business. Fascinating. Hey, Max, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Kudos to you and

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Speaker 1: your team for putting this great piece out. Max Abelson, uh,

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Speaker 1: he is Bloomberg finance reporter. Really a detailed look at

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Speaker 1: the finances former President Donald Trump. Again pegging the value

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Speaker 1: it's something about two point three billion dollars net worth

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Speaker 1: UM and that's you know, partially done by the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Billionaires Index, which is rich go one of my favorite functions. Met.

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Speaker 1: I actually got to say, you know, I love scrolling

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Speaker 1: through Max's ticker. I remember about six years ago you

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Speaker 1: did a story on an undocumented woman from Mexico who

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Speaker 1: made it all the way through, jumped to every hoop

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00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 1: and became a star employee at Goldman Sachs and it's

433
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 1: just written so well and researched so well. Um, it's

434
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:58,400
Speaker 1: just it's really touching work. And and then of course

435
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 1: these fun pieces like the one he's written on Trump.

436
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:07,199
Speaker 1: You can check that out on Bloomberg dot com. All right,

437
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 1: we are going to talk about something pretty exciting for

438
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 1: from my point of view, from from your point of

439
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:17,239
Speaker 1: view as well. M Paul. You're a car guy, so um.

440
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 1: We've got Chris Bryant coming on. He's one of my

441
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 1: favorite opinion calumnists and he writes a lot about cars.

442
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,119
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to that. All right, let's go to

443
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:29,399
Speaker 1: a Chris right now. Chris uh, Chris bryan he's colums

444
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:33,199
Speaker 1: covering industrial companies for Bloomberg Opinion. Chris, thanks so much

445
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 1: for joining us here. Talk to us about the news

446
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 1: coming out of Germany. Volkswagen is the latest of the

447
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: traditional auto companies to really put their chips in the

448
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 1: middle of the table on EVS. Tell us what's going

449
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:51,880
Speaker 1: on there, chips, Well, high, guys, and and and long

450
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,880
Speaker 1: story short, it's you know, folks bag into the moon,

451
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 1: absolutely extraordinary. Remember this is you know, one of the

452
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:03,120
Speaker 1: Germany's most established an important industrial companies in it Saffrance

453
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 1: has pretty much done nothing over the last decade or so,

454
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:10,399
Speaker 1: and suddenly, uh, you know, just this year, and in

455
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 1: particular in the last few days, it's been off to

456
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: the races. And so far this year the stock now

457
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 1: up fifty percent or so, billions and billions of market

458
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 1: cap added after Herbert Dee the CEO, announced some pretty

459
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: exciting electric vehicle plans, really taking the battle to Tesla.

460
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,159
Speaker 1: And I was writing today as well, also sort of

461
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: copying some of the ways that Mask has managed to

462
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 1: attract excitement for his own company. And what you've seen,

463
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: as to say, is is Fox barking off to the

464
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 1: races now and Tesla suffering a bit real reversal of

465
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: the trend we've seen over the past year or so.

466
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 1: I spoke to Herbert DEECEE as well, No big deal,

467
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 1: We talked sometimes, and um, you know the interesting thing is,

468
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: I I asked him, does it make sense that you're

469
00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 1: only worth a hundred and thirty billion only? Uh? And

470
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 1: and Tesla is worth six hundred and sixty billion dollars

471
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 1: in market cap. I mean, Tesla only sold half a

472
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 1: million cars last year and Folkswagen is gonna sell a

473
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,679
Speaker 1: million evs this year among the I don't know how

474
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 1: many ten twelve million cars they sell in total. So um.

475
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 1: But the question I had, Chris, do you think that

476
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,959
Speaker 1: Folkswagen's market cap rises to that of Tesla or does

477
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 1: Tesla's market cap just need to come down? Oh? If

478
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 1: I need to the answer to that, I'd be a

479
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 1: wealthier man than I am. I bet you have I

480
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 1: bet you have a view though, right, I mean, is

481
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: is a car maker really going to be worth that much?

482
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: Where are the margins coming from? I think you know

483
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 1: what's been remarkable after the last few years is a Folkswagen,

484
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,679
Speaker 1: as you say, huge the uh you know, massive company

485
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:57,159
Speaker 1: acques revenues, big profits, cash flows, and it's valued at

486
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 1: about nine times earnings. And yet you have a company Heller,

487
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:05,400
Speaker 1: which in all fantasies company is really great technology, really

488
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 1: fast growing, not a lot of profit and and valued

489
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 1: that's totally different multiple and and this divergence has existed

490
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,120
Speaker 1: for a long time, and I think people who bought

491
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 1: shares in the established European car makers kind of assumed

492
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: that it would never change. And that's the exciting thing

493
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 1: that's happened over the last few days that really have

494
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,360
Speaker 1: seen to change now, and even you've got some retail

495
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 1: buying of folxwagon stock out of the United States, which

496
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 1: might be influencing the The out performance of the ordinary

497
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 1: share has a bit compregated, but analysts do think that

498
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 1: actually some retail buying is going on here, and that's

499
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 1: pretty extraordinary, isn't it. You know, Reddit type amateur invested

500
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,679
Speaker 1: in the United States buying Folx Wagner ship. I mean,

501
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 1: who'd have thought it, but it's happened. Maybe Cathy would.

502
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 1: Actually there's a little um E t F that follows

503
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 1: the same formula as ARC called Moon. It's called Moon,

504
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 1: right because Wall Street bets guys like to the Moon.

505
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: And actually it's outperformed art by ten times this year. Hey, Chris,

506
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,880
Speaker 1: what's the I guess what a lot of these traditional

507
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 1: auto companies are trying to gauge and have been trying

508
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 1: to gauge, is just how big is the demand for

509
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 1: electric vehicles? Give us your sense of what you're hearing

510
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 1: and seeing in Europe. Well, obviously in in Europe the

511
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 1: market is really taken off over the past year, and

512
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 1: that's partly because you've had governments, you know, sort of

513
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,359
Speaker 1: demanding that happened, and offering incentives and so forth, and

514
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 1: you've seen that, you know, the market responded, and for

515
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:34,880
Speaker 1: a long time there's there was a perception, I think

516
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 1: in the investment world that Tesla was the only game

517
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 1: in town. But what we've seen as the European car

518
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 1: make has really come out with a lot of models

519
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 1: recently in order to meet their Redditstree compliance obligations in

520
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 1: terms of emissions and as such. You know, Tessler really

521
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 1: wasn't you know, number one in Europe last Yeah, I

522
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 1: think folks about group as a whole was the biggest

523
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 1: and now expects I think, you know, analysts is saying

524
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 1: within a couple of years will probably be the biggest

525
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,719
Speaker 1: globally and that thus shouldn't really surprise you. I mean,

526
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 1: it's a company that sells ten million vehicles a year.

527
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 1: It's said that you know, half of those are going

528
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 1: to be electric byty, and if that's the case, and

529
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 1: with the kind of muscle and financial power that this

530
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 1: company has, then then really, you know, they should be

531
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 1: a competitive Testler. The problem has always been that they

532
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: were a little bit you know, pre occupied with themselves,

533
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 1: a little bit too caught up with the government's problems,

534
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 1: And for a long time, you know, I didn't really

535
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 1: take electric vehicles seriously, and and now they are. They're

536
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,959
Speaker 1: putting the finance shot muscle behind it, and and frankly,

537
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 1: you know, it's quite impressive what they're promising in terms

538
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: of battery spectories and models over the next few years. Chase,

539
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: if you your long lost uncle dies leaves you fifty

540
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 1: grand right now, you need a car, would you buy

541
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 1: electric vehicle or or um would you buy a hybrid?

542
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: What do you think? Very difficult question, you know, I

543
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 1: I think I'll be in the market for a car

544
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 1: over the next couple of years. Right now, I live

545
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 1: in an apartment building, so recharging it's going to be

546
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 1: an issue. And that was something that part was talking

547
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 1: about yesterday. To really need expansion of the public charge

548
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 1: in network, and it's hoping to do that, all right.

549
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 1: Chris yep absolutely. Chris Bryant columus covering industrial companies for

550
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion. You can read all of his work and

551
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 1: that of all of our good folks with Bloomberg Opinion

552
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com, slash Opinion, or on the Bloomberg terminal.

553
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 1: By typing an O p I n GO. Thanks for

554
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and

555
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 1: listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform

556
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt

557
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 1: Miller three. Put on Fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at

558
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 1: pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You can always catch us

559
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio