Speaker 1: Check it down Man, Now Down Man, Monday Morning, No
Speaker 1: Every eleven twenty night The Moving Book Podcast with Skill
Speaker 1: Alex there there guessing line week number eleven in the
Speaker 1: National Football League. Our attribute to the old Stardust radio
Speaker 1: show that Roxy Roxbro was a part of, as we
Speaker 1: try to uncover value in the upcoming week's National Football
Speaker 1: League line, something we have done very well this year
Speaker 1: up until last week. Last week a bit of an exception.
Speaker 1: We'll resume our pressure ways though We'll try to anyway
Speaker 1: this week. Take it a stab at these lines with
Speaker 1: Chris Andrews guessing lines week eleven. Play along with us
Speaker 1: right here on the Beating the Book Podcast, Ladies and gentlemen.
Speaker 1: He is the South Point Hotel Casino sports book director,
Speaker 1: and of course he's my mission book. It's Chrissy Andrews.
Speaker 1: Good morning to you, Chris. So I have a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks. I good beat into forty yard dash. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's uh up here pretty quick. Don't get crazy, Chrizzy,
Speaker 1: don't get great. How are you doing? How you feel?
Speaker 1: How are you feeling, buddy? I know you went through
Speaker 1: your thing this last week. I'm feeling great, man. You know,
Speaker 1: here's the beauty. Here's the beauty of the human body.
Speaker 1: It numbs you right like it protects you. Otherwise you'd
Speaker 1: be in severe pain. And so the body goes numb
Speaker 1: and then once the surgery happens, they put you on drugs.
Speaker 1: So all good with me. You know, didn't didn't affect
Speaker 1: my football watching, although I will say this past guessing lines.
Speaker 1: I think up until last week guessing lines, I was
Speaker 1: sort of ahead of the market. It would come to
Speaker 1: me and everything seemed pretty good. I botched a bunch
Speaker 1: last week, and anyway, the results didn't follow. So last
Speaker 1: week was one of these shows that didn't work out.
Speaker 1: I'm sure you had a spectacular Sunday. We had a
Speaker 1: very very good Sunday, and me personally, I'm in a
Speaker 1: couple of contests did rather well. I'm looking back over
Speaker 1: my notes the games I gave out on guessing the lines.
Speaker 1: He gave about the Bills, which was either a push
Speaker 1: or or a loser, probably a push for most guys.
Speaker 1: At Batam, they left the Giants winner, Falcons winner, Bengals
Speaker 1: what we lost a close one there? Um the Steelers,
Speaker 1: I like, you know, so pretty good, pretty good, pretty
Speaker 1: and then the sports book you know, we did pretty good.
Speaker 1: We had a good day. We had a good day
Speaker 1: at that. I'm sure you did. Uh, let's do it
Speaker 1: for those who were just landing a JEPS wrong. Saturday
Speaker 1: was not very good. Really, it was not very good. Friend, No,
Speaker 1: it was like that. I don't know about anybody else,
Speaker 1: you know, idn't I didn't check compatriots in the business,
Speaker 1: but I know Saturday, and it wasn't terrible. We wounded
Speaker 1: up a little slightly on the plus, but very slightly. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it was not a particularly good day. Well, look, as
Speaker 1: you always say, no one's gonna cry for you, and
Speaker 1: you got it all back on Sunday before. I'm sure.
Speaker 1: All right, let's do this for those who are just
Speaker 1: landing on the show for the first time. Guessing lines
Speaker 1: is a tribute to the old Stardust show, which is Uh.
Speaker 1: I have been in cocoon since last night. I immediately
Speaker 1: win the games are are ending, I grab into I
Speaker 1: do notes for games yesterday. I don't see the lines.
Speaker 1: I take a guess at them. Uh. And within this
Speaker 1: exercise and Chrissie tells us what he's going to post
Speaker 1: here at the south point right when we get off
Speaker 1: the air at a couple of hours, and in that
Speaker 1: exercise we hope to find value at least the first salvo,
Speaker 1: first approach at handicapping next week's lines in the National
Speaker 1: Football League. More often than not, this is a very
Speaker 1: valuable exercise. And more often than not, again last week excepted,
Speaker 1: this has really been if we trusted our first instincts
Speaker 1: here probably the best way about going uh towards beating
Speaker 1: the National Football League. Let's start with Thursday, and of
Speaker 1: course when we do, these will look back on yesterday's
Speaker 1: games as well. What is Thursday night? This week? Two
Speaker 1: good prime time games this past week, and we got
Speaker 1: a third good one tonight. Yeah, we've got a good
Speaker 1: one coming up Thursday, at least for for a lot
Speaker 1: of people, myself included Pittsburgh at Cleveland. You were right
Speaker 1: about Pittsburgh. You're right about that. Yesterday Pittsburgh's five and four.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has the same record as teams like the Elis Cowboys,
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh, who else is in that mix?
Speaker 1: The Rams teams that we had had other perceptions of,
Speaker 1: Let's put it that way prior to the season, and
Speaker 1: the Steelers have gone from one in four to five
Speaker 1: and four before even get into this against the Browns,
Speaker 1: has this been Mike Tomlin's best moment as a coach
Speaker 1: in your opinion or a lifelong Steelers fan, and has
Speaker 1: this changed your perception of Mike Tomlin. Well, I personally
Speaker 1: was always a Tomlin supporter, so I think he was
Speaker 1: on the ropes a little bit last year. He came
Speaker 1: down the last couple of weeks. I felt he had
Speaker 1: to either beat New Orleans or New England to keep
Speaker 1: his job, and he beat New Orleans. They did not
Speaker 1: make the playoffs, but they made a pretty good run
Speaker 1: at it. I think again, when you look at Mike
Speaker 1: Tomlin and what he got out of Antonio Brown, for
Speaker 1: you know, eight of his nine years as a Steeler
Speaker 1: is just remarkable. Also got a lot out of Lady
Speaker 1: On Bell, who you know, it's, you know, tremendous talented.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure he's very happy in New York. Might be,
Speaker 1: I don't know, but he've got a lot out of
Speaker 1: those two guys, you know, and neither one of them
Speaker 1: more high draft choices. Uh. Bell was the second round
Speaker 1: choice in Brown, I think it was a sixth round choice.
Speaker 1: And then this year, you know, Gil, You're right, I
Speaker 1: do sing the praises of the Steelers a lot. I
Speaker 1: am a fan, but look back at their losses. Okay,
Speaker 1: they've got blown out by New England. I think that
Speaker 1: really the story of the perception. Since then, their losses
Speaker 1: are to Seattle, San Francisco, in Baltimore. You know, you know,
Speaker 1: all four of those losses are the top teams in
Speaker 1: the NFL. Their defense is playing great, offense not so good,
Speaker 1: you know, but they're winning some ballgames. And I think
Speaker 1: Mike Comlin at this point in time, you know, would
Speaker 1: conceivably be Coach of the year. I think he's done
Speaker 1: a terrific job. There's absolutely absolutely a case to be
Speaker 1: made for that. And I just for for those of
Speaker 1: us who just thought he was, you know, a good
Speaker 1: speech giver, you know, this has this is really shown
Speaker 1: a lot. I think about Mike Tomlin here now their decision,
Speaker 1: the Steeler's decision to send a one round pick to
Speaker 1: the Dolphins mid September in exchange for Minka Fitzpatrick, hours
Speaker 1: after they lost Big Bed to his season ending injury.
Speaker 1: We were here sort of saying, okay, great, now you
Speaker 1: lost Ben Roethlesburger and now you're mortgaging the future. Well,
Speaker 1: this has turned out to be a phenomenal trade for
Speaker 1: the Steelers. And again yesterday Fitzpatrick returns a fumble and
Speaker 1: I put fumble in quotes. We'll get back to that
Speaker 1: in a minute. Forty three yards were a touchdown the
Speaker 1: second quarter, had a pick at the end of the
Speaker 1: game in the final seconds. He's had six takeaways now,
Speaker 1: five picks, one fumble recovery in seven games with the Steelers.
Speaker 1: Just absolutely ridiculous. Minca. Fitzpatrick has been just a boon
Speaker 1: for the Steelers. He's got to love the move that
Speaker 1: he's made from Miami. He wanted out, they gave him
Speaker 1: his wish. Now, I will say this, this is what
Speaker 1: drives NFL fans and particularly NFL better. Is crazy. I
Speaker 1: don't know that that's a fun Parlay and I were
Speaker 1: talking about this before the show. He thought that was
Speaker 1: a fumble. There was nothing about that motion to me. Up.
Speaker 1: Everything I've been led to believe is the rule. I
Speaker 1: think that's an incomplete pass, but it was called a fumble.
Speaker 1: Um second quarter, it's third and keep in mind the situation.
Speaker 1: Second quarter, the Rams have third and seven at their
Speaker 1: own forty one. You're inside the two minute one. It
Speaker 1: is one six left, the game is seven and seven,
Speaker 1: The game is very much in the balance at that point.
Speaker 1: That is the entire you know, it's a game changing
Speaker 1: play right there. I'm not sure that's a fumble. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure how you saw it. I think it could
Speaker 1: have gone either way. But I was looking at Twitter
Speaker 1: yesterday when it happened, and the guy made a great point.
Speaker 1: If that's Brady, that's exactly, That's exactly, and you can't
Speaker 1: talk me off that. Yeah, I don't dispute that. I
Speaker 1: don't dispute that. One more thing though, about the makeup.
Speaker 1: That's Patrick trade. I said this at the time, not
Speaker 1: thought that was so much for it or against it.
Speaker 1: But I understand the Steeler's philosophy at that time. Their
Speaker 1: their goal every single year is to put a contender
Speaker 1: on the field, and they don't tank. They're not playing
Speaker 1: for next year. And everybody told him they should do that.
Speaker 1: Hold onto that draft kick. They were going to be,
Speaker 1: you know, right there with the Dolphins is the worst
Speaker 1: team in the NFL. And Steeler management certainly didn't think
Speaker 1: someone didn't react that way, you know, and that that's
Speaker 1: their message to the to the locker room to the
Speaker 1: coaching staff, to the fans, ownership, everybody know, we're gonna
Speaker 1: go out there, you know, where things look bad. We're
Speaker 1: gonna try to get back in this race. And obviously
Speaker 1: they have right now. And I mean there's a lot
Speaker 1: of football left to play, but right now I think
Speaker 1: they are the leader for the number two uh the
Speaker 1: card spots. Yeah, but I mean, like I said long
Speaker 1: way ago, but I'll tell what. You look at their
Speaker 1: schedule and you know, we're gonna get to this game
Speaker 1: in a minute, and I'll just you know, took here
Speaker 1: a little bit. They're gonna a slight dog this week.
Speaker 1: Then they played the Ravens last week of the season,
Speaker 1: but all the rest of the games, I think they'll
Speaker 1: be favored and all the rest of their games, so
Speaker 1: they have a good shot of getting into the playoffs.
Speaker 1: And then once you get in the playoffs, so see,
Speaker 1: you gotta get lucky. I mean, you know, there's New England,
Speaker 1: a better team, absolutely, but best team doesn't always win.
Speaker 1: If you get to the playoffs, this version of Pittsburgh Steelers,
Speaker 1: you've got to be thrilled with that. Mason rud obviously,
Speaker 1: by the way, so the Steelers do end up winning
Speaker 1: the game, of course, seventeen to twelve. They do so
Speaker 1: as four four and a half point dogs, depending on
Speaker 1: where it closed at your shop. Mason Rudolph yesterday two
Speaker 1: thirty eight for two forty two, one touchdown, no pick,
Speaker 1: sack three times. James Washington six catches ninety yards with
Speaker 1: a touchdown. Steelers did have a lot of penalties though,
Speaker 1: right thirteen penalties for a hundred seven yards. They only
Speaker 1: mustard on offense two hundred and seventy three total yards,
Speaker 1: but it was without James Conner and Betty Snell Junior
Speaker 1: in the backfield. But the defense, It's all about the defense.
Speaker 1: They already had twenty six takeaways this season after managing
Speaker 1: just dean all of last year. Steelers get the win.
Speaker 1: It's at Cleveland Division rivals. Cleveland gets their first win
Speaker 1: at home yesterday. Uh they how can I put? This
Speaker 1: is the word outlast the Buffalo Bills N sixteen Um
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield seven Yeah, I guess so, I don't really
Speaker 1: know what else to use their Baker Mayfield seven yard
Speaker 1: passed through the long lost Rochard Higgins with one forty
Speaker 1: four left Cleveland snapping a four game losing street. Uh. Streak.
Speaker 1: Rather Buffalo game tying field goal try with twenty two
Speaker 1: seconds left, uh did not clear the upright Stephen Housh
Speaker 1: goes off the mark on a fifty three yard er
Speaker 1: um earlier, how she missed the thirty four yarder. Mayfield
Speaker 1: thirty eight to thirty eight, two touchdowns, no picks, two
Speaker 1: sacks or twice sacked. Nick Chubb, even with the appearance
Speaker 1: of Kareem Hunt twenty carries a hundred sixty yards, seven
Speaker 1: catches for forty four. Kareem Hunt did make his debut
Speaker 1: seventy four combined yards in the game. Jarvis Landry nine
Speaker 1: catches ninety seven a touchdown the Browns, though here it
Speaker 1: is even in victory over the Bills. And we'll get
Speaker 1: to the Bills and Josh Allen, who still does everything
Speaker 1: with his feet, not with his arm, but they do
Speaker 1: benefit from the house could misses. The Browns scored just
Speaker 1: three points despite twelve plays inside Buffalo's three yard line.
Speaker 1: Say that again, three points despite twelve plays inside Buffalo's
Speaker 1: three yard line. The Bills in fact stopped the Browns
Speaker 1: on eight straight plays at the one, the equivalent of
Speaker 1: two goal line stands in the first quarter alone. Your
Speaker 1: victorious Cleveland Browns, who get off the schneid, as Chris
Speaker 1: Burner used to say, with the win. I mean, all
Speaker 1: that said, it's a division game, it's Pittsburgh at Cleveland.
Speaker 1: This to me has to be Cleveland minus three. Right. Well,
Speaker 1: there were threes around last night when I took a
Speaker 1: first going. And I don't like looking at the numbers
Speaker 1: before this morning either too, by the way, but I
Speaker 1: couldn't help but looking at this one, there was a
Speaker 1: lot of threes around. They're pretty much gone. It's bounded
Speaker 1: two and a half and that, and I'm gonna open
Speaker 1: it two and a half because I still see three
Speaker 1: with some juice on the dog, mostly two and a
Speaker 1: halfs a few with two and a half juice on
Speaker 1: the favorite. But I'm gonna open two and a half.
Speaker 1: And uh, you know what you said there is really
Speaker 1: was kind of read my mind here. Uh. If you
Speaker 1: look at this the raw numbers, Cleveland should have won.
Speaker 1: They did much more easily did. But I mean that's
Speaker 1: the thing, you know, the Steelers were talked about their defense.
Speaker 1: Defense gave up three points yesterday. The offense gave up nine. Uh,
Speaker 1: and I don't think I'm not sure if Cleveland plays
Speaker 1: the same way, you know, let me, I don't know
Speaker 1: how to phrase that. If they don't execute when they're
Speaker 1: supposed to this like they did yesterday against Buffalo, they're
Speaker 1: not gonna get away with it against the Steelers. And
Speaker 1: they barely got away with it yesterday. You know, heat
Speaker 1: plays in a row, you know, inside the five or
Speaker 1: where they were a yeah, I mean they came away
Speaker 1: with nothing. I mean, you know, I mean you look
Speaker 1: at the raw numbers again, Baker Mayfield played well, Nick
Speaker 1: Job was fantastic. How did they only win by three points?
Speaker 1: And uh, you know again, we we keep talking about
Speaker 1: Freddy Kitchen as a coach, and there's problems in that organization.
Speaker 1: And you know, they lose a lot of games they're
Speaker 1: supposed to win, and Steelers probably have won a few
Speaker 1: games that they're supposed to lose. And uh, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: open to and a half. But I gotta tell you,
Speaker 1: if I see this trending lower, I'm going lowers. I
Speaker 1: really I do like Pittsburgh in this game. Personally, I
Speaker 1: thought this game should be close with will pick them?
Speaker 1: Oh I had three was the only thing that popped
Speaker 1: in my head here for all the reasons stated like,
Speaker 1: what if Pittsburgh's winning games, they probably shouldn't Cleveland, you know,
Speaker 1: barely winning games, they should blood. It's just a tough,
Speaker 1: tough matchup to uh per day. That's a good Thursday
Speaker 1: night game for sure, Cleveland, now three and six? Should
Speaker 1: we do one more here before the break? Let's do
Speaker 1: one more here on a Sunday morning. Uh, this is
Speaker 1: a tough one. You got Dallas in Detroit and there's
Speaker 1: no numbers now right. You know, we had to take
Speaker 1: this game off the car and unforced them because of
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford, which is back and you get broken bones
Speaker 1: in his back and I can't believe the doctor wouldn't
Speaker 1: sign off on him playing football. But did we have
Speaker 1: Did we have any indication of this the entire week
Speaker 1: until the very late? Yeah? None? They keep amazing. I
Speaker 1: had wife bet me on Detroit. You know, we're at
Speaker 1: the end, you know. Uh, and then this came on.
Speaker 1: I you know, I knew he was, you know, And
Speaker 1: I asked some guys that when when the first announced
Speaker 1: that he was questionable or doubts or whatever, was a
Speaker 1: while his hips been hurting him, you know, So I
Speaker 1: mean we didn't even know about the back. So, um,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know, but like I said, this
Speaker 1: was a big surprise. So right now, that's the next
Speaker 1: game on the dock at no numbers whatsoever. And you
Speaker 1: can see why. Where's my notes here on that game.
Speaker 1: Jeff driscoll I bought exactly a stellar Cal's quarterback. But
Speaker 1: he wasn't terrible, Yester, He's almost pretty decent. But I mean,
Speaker 1: Stafford really has had a terrific year. I mean, if
Speaker 1: you look at that Detroit team, I mean he has
Speaker 1: really carried that team this year. And you know, a
Speaker 1: huge difference from Stafford to driscoll. But like I said,
Speaker 1: Drisco played okay, but you know, that's just not a
Speaker 1: good team like Matthew Stafford. Yeah, yesterday Detroit losing to Chicago.
Speaker 1: Chicago just does get the cover. They were six and
Speaker 1: a half point favorites in that game, as we're alluding to.
Speaker 1: Though Jeff Driscal forty six for two sixty nine, one touchdown,
Speaker 1: one pick, He was sacked twice, did have five carries
Speaker 1: for thirty seven yards. Detroit loses for the fifth time
Speaker 1: in six games. Such a Detroit Lions kind of season
Speaker 1: three five and one, and they ruled out the thirty
Speaker 1: one year old Stafford right before kickoff hip and back injuries.
Speaker 1: He had started UH one hundred thirty six consecutive games,
Speaker 1: first time he's missed a regular season games since. And
Speaker 1: the word is quote day by day, week by week.
Speaker 1: That's going to be the assessment of Stafford moving forward.
Speaker 1: So who knows when we'll get a number on this.
Speaker 1: Chicago nearly gave away four teen wing lead driscll with
Speaker 1: the late orchestration of the of the late drives forty
Speaker 1: seven yard touchdown past to Kenny Golladay's K five fifty
Speaker 1: three remaining, and then Detroit from its ten got all
Speaker 1: the way to Chicago's twenty five on the game's final drive,
Speaker 1: but with the ball on the twenty five, Driskill overthrows
Speaker 1: Marvin's Joon Marvin Jones Jr. In the end zone. Time
Speaker 1: expires on a play that by the way, never would
Speaker 1: have counted because it was a legal forward pass and
Speaker 1: penalty anyway, And Dallas, as we all saw last night,
Speaker 1: they lose to Minnesota to twenty four, do so on
Speaker 1: their home field is three and a half point favorites.
Speaker 1: Uh Dak Prescott forty six for three ninety seven three
Speaker 1: touchdowns of pick He was sacked only once at Mariy
Speaker 1: Cooper filling at the box score eleven catches a hundred
Speaker 1: forty seven yards of touchdown Randall cops six for one
Speaker 1: or six in a touchdown, but Zeke on the ground
Speaker 1: twenty carries for just forty seven yards. Uh. They were
Speaker 1: nine of fifteen on third downs. They had four forty
Speaker 1: three total yards of offense. A lot of people complaining
Speaker 1: about the sequence at the end that um, Jason Garrett
Speaker 1: and company didn't get it right. That on the final
Speaker 1: drive Dallas from their own six yard line, not the
Speaker 1: final drive because the final drive was the Hail Mary,
Speaker 1: but the one before that, Dallas down four points, matriculated
Speaker 1: all the way from their own six with passes. Uh,
Speaker 1: deep pass This is twenty yards at a time, pretty
Speaker 1: much eighteen twenty that sort of length passed. They get
Speaker 1: all the way down field and then it ends up
Speaker 1: being uh, you know second and two or yes, I
Speaker 1: think it was third and two deep in Minnesota territory,
Speaker 1: and instead of still going to the past, they went
Speaker 1: with Zeke. I didn't have a problem that they had
Speaker 1: a couple of running plays to Zeke. Second and to
Speaker 1: third and two, and then they threw a strange past
Speaker 1: to Zeke. I didn't really have a problem with that.
Speaker 1: I know it didn't work for Dallas, but that's the
Speaker 1: guy you're paying. I thought that was a lot of
Speaker 1: results oriented analysis after that. Not sure how you felt
Speaker 1: about that. Yeah, I know I would disagree with you
Speaker 1: because I think if you look at bit coaching on
Speaker 1: Minnesota and they mentioned that during the game, it's like
Speaker 1: they were determined Zeke Elliott was not going to beat them,
Speaker 1: so that and they stuck with that philosophy all the
Speaker 1: way through the game. And you know, Dak Prescott I
Speaker 1: thought really played well. I mean I'm looking at his
Speaker 1: q bas seven point five. You know, he was really good.
Speaker 1: I thought the whole game against a pretty good defense. Um,
Speaker 1: but then they switched up again. So I wouldn't disagree
Speaker 1: with you on that one. Gil. I think that they
Speaker 1: should have kept throwing the ball and Zeke, h, we're
Speaker 1: not gonna let Zeki Elliott beat them, and they didn't,
Speaker 1: and uh, you know, I think, uh, you know, again,
Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of fault those to Jason
Speaker 1: Garrett and Moore, who's their play caller. You know, I
Speaker 1: don't know. Maybe maybe the drugs want me to defend
Speaker 1: Jason Garrett Chris. I can blame it everything on the drugs.
Speaker 1: I've done that before too, you know, for a while.
Speaker 1: But but if it's drift call, Dallas is going to
Speaker 1: be favored by more than a field goal, to say
Speaker 1: the least. That's that's yeah, alright, no numbers at all, though,
Speaker 1: I don't see any numbers whatsoever. All right, Yeah, he's
Speaker 1: Stafford is just too important. We'll come back, We'll guess
Speaker 1: some more. Week eleven line. So hard to believe. We're
Speaker 1: a week eleven already in the NFL, and of course,
Speaker 1: in the process will review what went on yesterday. It's
Speaker 1: all brought to you by the bet mgm app. Here
Speaker 1: on a numbers game where you can get in on
Speaker 1: the action by downloading the new bet mgm app, where
Speaker 1: first time players can make their first bet completely risk
Speaker 1: free up to five hundred dollars. The same guys that
Speaker 1: brought you the Borgata in Atlantic City with this new
Speaker 1: betting app with all the betting options and easy to
Speaker 1: poss and withdrawal methods that go along with it. Just
Speaker 1: download the app use bonus code VISA five hundred. Rather
Speaker 1: that's Visa five hundred at sign up to get your
Speaker 1: five hundred dollar risk free bet. That's bonus code v
Speaker 1: s I N five To place your first bet MGM
Speaker 1: wager risk free. You can sign a betywhere, but you
Speaker 1: gotta be in the state of New Jersey to place
Speaker 1: a bet bet MGM. It's how you play the game.
Speaker 1: Download the app today. Gotta be twenty one year older.
Speaker 1: New Jersey only restrictions apply. Coming back guessing lines week
Speaker 1: eleven in the National Football League right here on a
Speaker 1: numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game
Speaker 1: with you, Alexander. Back on a numbers game here guessing lines.
Speaker 1: We can levin right here to be in the Vegas
Speaker 1: Stats and information that we're serious. Sex of Channel two
Speaker 1: or four. Parlay laughing at me? Why are you laughing
Speaker 1: at me? Parley, I'm not I'm not gonna say anything.
Speaker 1: I'm not throwing you under the bus. You're already on
Speaker 1: a scooter as it is. That's right, I'm on a scooter.
Speaker 1: Give a man on a scooter or break Chris. Let's
Speaker 1: bring Chris Andrews here for a second. Uh. The South
Speaker 1: Point Hotel Casino Sports book director, of course, is uh
Speaker 1: hanging with us as he always does, guessing lines. He is,
Speaker 1: for goodness sake, the show here. You can follow him
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Andrew sports h question from my buddy
Speaker 1: e here Chrissie, who you know as well, asked Chris
Speaker 1: how badly he was sweating a Dallas field goal win
Speaker 1: with Dallas driving to go ahead down four? Would that
Speaker 1: have negated your whole day with them dancing between three
Speaker 1: and three and a half. Uh, it would have negated
Speaker 1: probably about a third to the day that they're not
Speaker 1: the whole day made you a little more than a third.
Speaker 1: That was huge. We were most certainly holding our breath
Speaker 1: here on that on those last couple of drives, for sure. Yeah. Interesting.
Speaker 1: By the way, our other buddy, Chris Felika the Bear,
Speaker 1: he reminded me that I think you were on this
Speaker 1: text too, that the Steelers got screwed against the Ravens
Speaker 1: on our pass interfaces, not about that they could easily
Speaker 1: be six and three right now, you imagine. Yeah, No,
Speaker 1: I mean, oh, we'll get to we'll get to roughing
Speaker 1: the passer penalties on this show too, because we got
Speaker 1: some tweets about it. I want to get to it too.
Speaker 1: Let's do some more on Sunday morning, Week eleven, This
Speaker 1: coming Sunday. Okay, New Orleans at Tampa. All right, So
Speaker 1: what was that yesterday? No? No, but that was very
Speaker 1: good for us. I can tell you whatever it was,
Speaker 1: it was a thing of beauty. I could tell you
Speaker 1: that Atlanta, who everybody just wanted to just scrap on,
Speaker 1: come out and dominate the New Orleans Saints, who were
Speaker 1: fourteen point favorites. They beat the Saint twenties six to
Speaker 1: nine yesterday. We'll get to Atlanta. But as far as
Speaker 1: New Orleans, um, boy, I mean, how so many ways
Speaker 1: to look at this. First of all, the Falcons ended
Speaker 1: their six games slide with the With that win, the
Speaker 1: Saints had not been held without a touchdown at home
Speaker 1: with Breeze running the offense since two thousand six, his
Speaker 1: first year in New Orleans. But it was the second
Speaker 1: time this season, if you were called, the Saints had
Speaker 1: not found the end zone at home. Remember that twelve
Speaker 1: to ten win over Dallas with Teddy Bridgewater filling in
Speaker 1: for Brides. So Breeze, when you look at the box score,
Speaker 1: thirty two of forty five seven yards, no touchdowns, no picture, like, Okay,
Speaker 1: what's the problem? Six sacks? He was sacked six times.
Speaker 1: Now keep in mind what an anomaly this was, or
Speaker 1: just or how I shouldn't say anomally, how this came
Speaker 1: out of nowhere. Up until this game yesterday, the Falcons
Speaker 1: had a grand total of seven sacks. That's an NFL low.
Speaker 1: They came in with seven sacks, They had six yesterday alone.
Speaker 1: It happened against the Saints offensive line that had allowed
Speaker 1: twelve sacks through their first eight games. They give up
Speaker 1: six yesterday. Again, you look at the box, who are
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas Thirteen catches a fifty two yards but only
Speaker 1: three yards of offense for these Saints. And here's the
Speaker 1: real thing, only fifty two yards rushing. The other thing
Speaker 1: that really bit the Saints, and the Saints were coming
Speaker 1: off an extra week. Here twelve penalties for ninety yards.
Speaker 1: They had four, Chris, do you ever remember a game
Speaker 1: where a team had four hands to the face penalties?
Speaker 1: That was pretty remarkable. So they're twelve, yeah, yeah, four
Speaker 1: in one game. Uh and by the way, the refs
Speaker 1: caught every single one of them. Um, they're at Tampa,
Speaker 1: you said, Tampa bayands a four game losing streak. Jamis
Speaker 1: Winston thirty eight one touchdown, two picks, act four times,
Speaker 1: three carries forty yards. It's your typical Jamis box score.
Speaker 1: In Tampa Bay's thirty to twenty seven win, excuse me
Speaker 1: over Arizona, they do not cover the four and a
Speaker 1: half or or five point closing spread, but Tampa gets
Speaker 1: the win. Uh drove ninety two yards did the Bucks
Speaker 1: for the winning touchdown after Jamal Dean cornerback who had
Speaker 1: played terribly the previous week against Seattle. You remember in
Speaker 1: that UM forty thirty four overtime game, he was getting
Speaker 1: beat left and right, but he ends Kyler Murray's NFL
Speaker 1: rookie record streak of two hundred eleven consecutive pass attempts
Speaker 1: without a pick. Um denies the Cardinals an opportunity to
Speaker 1: add to their twenty seven to twenty three lead. Mike
Speaker 1: Evans four catches eighty two yards. Ronald Jones Junior filling
Speaker 1: up the box score eleven carries for twenty nine yards
Speaker 1: and touchdown eight catches for seventy seven. Bucks penalized severely
Speaker 1: as well, though nine for nine. It's kind of just
Speaker 1: the norm now in the NFL. Winston's interceptions. By the way,
Speaker 1: even with a victory yesterday gives him thirteen turnovers in
Speaker 1: the past four games. He's still Jamison. So all that
Speaker 1: New Orleans at Tampa Bay. New Orleans will get dinged
Speaker 1: obviously for that loss yesterday, but there's still New Orleans
Speaker 1: and they're still Tampa. So I'll say New Orleans by
Speaker 1: what's my number here? I said New Orleans by four.
Speaker 1: You're slightly low. It's uh. I see one four and
Speaker 1: a half, but mostly five, even even a straight five
Speaker 1: and a half here and there. I think five's okay.
Speaker 1: I really thought this might come a little higher. Uh,
Speaker 1: I expect the Saints to rebound. You know you said
Speaker 1: it wasn't an anomally I would beg the difference. The
Speaker 1: sad thing was a total one normally. I mean, how
Speaker 1: the the Falcons got in drew breaths face like that yesterday.
Speaker 1: I was shocked. I mean, now, anybody listens, if you
Speaker 1: listen to the show last week, I opened this game
Speaker 1: twelve and a half, and I told you even then
Speaker 1: I like the Falcons in the game. I just thought
Speaker 1: it was too high because they as bad as they've been,
Speaker 1: it seemed like they're close, and uh, you know, yesterday
Speaker 1: they really kind of put it all together. But I
Speaker 1: like the plus tall in half. You know, I went
Speaker 1: all the way to fourteen on this game, and uh,
Speaker 1: the were at the fourteen. I had like one guy
Speaker 1: that me two dimes plus the fourteen. That was it.
Speaker 1: I mean, we had nothing on that Land. This is
Speaker 1: a huge game for tons of moneyline action on New Orleans.
Speaker 1: But I think I think New Orleans bouncing back here,
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna open open five. It just gives me
Speaker 1: a lot of flexibility. I can go to four or
Speaker 1: six off the bed because five still a pretty dead
Speaker 1: number in this league. Uh, but I thought this would
Speaker 1: come higher. I somewhat like New Orleans in this spot.
Speaker 1: It was. It was so interesting because that for this game,
Speaker 1: I couldn't wait to see what was it? What was
Speaker 1: it Land on third downs? Because New Orleans could not
Speaker 1: get them off the field. At least That's how it
Speaker 1: seemed when watching the game. And then I'm like, oh,
Speaker 1: six of fifteen, Uh do we lose Cristy right there?
Speaker 1: Six of fifteen. I was like, Oh, it's not that
Speaker 1: it wasn't as dramatic as I thought it was, But
Speaker 1: six and fifteen nonetheless, but six sacks of Drew Brees that,
Speaker 1: as I mentioned, the key stad there. Falcons came in
Speaker 1: with an NFL low seven sacks. They get six alone
Speaker 1: in that game, and a Saints offensive line that had
Speaker 1: allowed to just twelve sacks through their first eight games.
Speaker 1: Drew Brees six half of their entire sex to that
Speaker 1: point of the season in that game yesterday. So just
Speaker 1: a complete outlier in that one. We have Chrissy back.
Speaker 1: Let's go to the next game. So I said, I
Speaker 1: said four, and you're and you're going with five here,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with five. Like I said, I sort
Speaker 1: of like New Orleans in this spot. I just think,
Speaker 1: you know, and they have to rebound off of that game,
Speaker 1: because I do think they are really I don't know
Speaker 1: about the cream of the crop in the NFC, but
Speaker 1: they're certainly right up there, and I think they will
Speaker 1: rebound after that. And Tampa was a little lucky winning
Speaker 1: that game this year. They weren't clearly the better team certainly. Yeah. Anyway,
Speaker 1: next game up, we have those same Atlanta Falcons at Carolina. Okay,
Speaker 1: NFC South game Falcons that we just talked about. Matt
Speaker 1: Ryan two touchdowns, a pick sacked once returning from an
Speaker 1: ankle injury. As I said, six of fifteen on third downs,
Speaker 1: one of one on fourth. But Atlanta's defensive dominance. Here's
Speaker 1: what they changed, dan Quinn reassigned Raheem Morris from receivers
Speaker 1: back to the secondary. So Raheem Morris gets to take
Speaker 1: a bow because that that was the one significant change
Speaker 1: they made before that game, and that made a whole
Speaker 1: bunch of difference. Carolina yesterday, uh they lose to the
Speaker 1: green Bay Packers by the by the score of twenty
Speaker 1: four to sixteen. Green Bay covers is five five and
Speaker 1: a half point favorites. In that game. Preston Smith, green
Speaker 1: Bay's defense stopped Christian McCaffrey at the goal line as
Speaker 1: time expires. Packers win a twenty to sixteen snowy lambeau
Speaker 1: Field Panthers got the ball with two twenty five left
Speaker 1: on their own eleven yard line, trailing by eight. Kyle
Speaker 1: Allen matriculated the ball down the field twelve yard pass
Speaker 1: the DJ more and fourth and ten with fifty six
Speaker 1: seconds left. That extended the drive. They also benefited from
Speaker 1: an off side's penalty with thirteen seconds remaining. To convert
Speaker 1: an other fourth down. McCaffrey had found the end zone
Speaker 1: on three yard run to cut the lead of sixteen
Speaker 1: fifty eight left, and then Panthers coach Ron Rivera elected
Speaker 1: to go for two instead of attempting the extra point.
Speaker 1: That failed, So they were in a position where they
Speaker 1: were down eight. Even had they had scored there at
Speaker 1: the end, they would have still had to convert a
Speaker 1: two point conversion. Now I got some I got a
Speaker 1: tweet or two about that where folks were like, how
Speaker 1: do you feel about that? And my answer about them
Speaker 1: going for to down eight, My answer to that is incomplete,
Speaker 1: I said, one as as Ron Rivera says, it's completely
Speaker 1: the analytical way to go. Now, so this first, let's
Speaker 1: just say this, the notion that he's riverboat Ron is
Speaker 1: now the most inaccurately dubbed nickname there is, because he's
Speaker 1: by the book. Ron. In doing that, he's going strictly
Speaker 1: by the book. I can't answer the question because I
Speaker 1: don't know how in depth Carolina's analysis is of this.
Speaker 1: Are they just, you know, on the one hand, are
Speaker 1: they just given a book like, oh, analytics say to
Speaker 1: do this, let's follow it sacredly or On the other hand,
Speaker 1: do they get to other and do they say to themselves, well, uh,
Speaker 1: this is the reason why we're supposed to go for it,
Speaker 1: and based on our personnel and the opposing team's personnel,
Speaker 1: let's just not do do this. You know, blindly, it
Speaker 1: still makes sense for us to do things this way.
Speaker 1: And here are the numbers with two point conversion, expected
Speaker 1: points with two point conversions, and with extra points. So
Speaker 1: I don't know how in depth they get to it.
Speaker 1: I don't have a problem with it on the surface. Um,
Speaker 1: a good game for Kyle Allen three or seven, one touchdown,
Speaker 1: one pick, three, sack three times. McCaffrey twenty carries a
Speaker 1: hundred eight yards to touchdown, six catches for thirty three.
Speaker 1: But they did allow Aaron Jones three touchdowns on the ground.
Speaker 1: We'll get to the most egregious play of this game,
Speaker 1: but I'll say Carolina minus six at home against Atlanta. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know you're pretty much right on. It's anywhere from
Speaker 1: five and a half to six and a half, say
Speaker 1: six the predominant number at this point. I'm gonna open
Speaker 1: this game five and a half. Um, it's kind of
Speaker 1: been a I hate to say an Atlanta believer. But
Speaker 1: I just really have been waiting for this team to
Speaker 1: finally wake up. It just seemed like they had a
Speaker 1: lot of pieces in place. But um, what do we
Speaker 1: say last week? I can't remember who we were talking about.
Speaker 1: But some of the parts is not equal the whole,
Speaker 1: you know. And I still think they've got a shot
Speaker 1: to get this thing. I mean, I'm not saying they're
Speaker 1: gonna make a playoff run or anything like that, but
Speaker 1: I just don't think they're all that bad. And by
Speaker 1: the way, I was looking at Carolina, are we sure
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey didn't get into the in zone on that
Speaker 1: last play? I'm not so sure about that. For me,
Speaker 1: I'm looking at my point, they really did shut down
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey. Oh, we only had what do you have there,
Speaker 1: like a hundred and some yards on their you know,
Speaker 1: they really shut them a hundred eight yards on the ground. Uh,
Speaker 1: But that's one of his worst games of the year.
Speaker 1: But I think the defense played very well for Green Bay. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, Carolina is good. I don't think they're great,
Speaker 1: And I think I'm gonna go to five and a
Speaker 1: half here, and you know, if they want to bet
Speaker 1: me up to six and it gets okay. I get said.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're a great team. I think Atlanta
Speaker 1: has the potential to make a run, no, but show
Speaker 1: a lot of improvement over the last half of the season.
Speaker 1: I think they do have that potential. A few things here,
Speaker 1: just to clarify, I think I said the the whole
Speaker 1: is worse than the sum of its parts. I said
Speaker 1: that about the Cleveland Browns. I believe last week uh too,
Speaker 1: And I can't even remember what too was. So we'll
Speaker 1: get to three, which was to me still what I
Speaker 1: will remember about this game, and this is what again,
Speaker 1: We've only gotten through a few games here, and it's
Speaker 1: the second time I'm saying this. This is what drives
Speaker 1: people crazy about the NFL now, and particularly people who
Speaker 1: are betting on the NFL UM one. It's not even
Speaker 1: about Ron Rivera's decision. It's about what happened at the
Speaker 1: end of the first half. It's third and thirteen at
Speaker 1: their own seven yard line for the Green Bay Packers
Speaker 1: with four twenty one left. They're up fourteen to ten
Speaker 1: um Aaron Rodgers drops back to pass. It looks like
Speaker 1: the play is blown up and they're gonna have to
Speaker 1: punt the ball. Caroline is gonna get the ball in
Speaker 1: good field position at the very least you can assume
Speaker 1: a field goal attempt, probably on that final drive. But nope,
Speaker 1: Gerald McCoy, who looked to go out of his way
Speaker 1: not to land on Aaron Rodgers, gets flagged for a
Speaker 1: roughing the passer penalty and it gives the Packers new life.
Speaker 1: The Packers matriculate all the way down the field. Excuse me.
Speaker 1: For the remainder of the first half, they make it
Speaker 1: absolutely what I believe to be a just ridiculous decision
Speaker 1: to try to punch the ball in for a touchdown
Speaker 1: first and goal at the two, first and goal at
Speaker 1: the one with with two seconds left and a half,
Speaker 1: instead of just kicking a field goal going up seven
Speaker 1: getting the ball back at the beginning of the second half,
Speaker 1: Like why field goals aren't cool enough now for certain teams,
Speaker 1: Like it says the analytics thing has gone crazy with people,
Speaker 1: like the pendulum has swung too much. Just kick a
Speaker 1: field goal, get some points there. Uh they By the way,
Speaker 1: they didn't end up scoring your touchdown the first of
Speaker 1: the second half. But back to the McCoy thing, By
Speaker 1: the way, the poetic justice is that McCoy was the
Speaker 1: one who shot through the line and stopped that play
Speaker 1: the final play of the first half, so the Packers
Speaker 1: ended up with nothing but that play. I mean, it
Speaker 1: cannot be emphasized enough. That call changes perhaps the entire
Speaker 1: outcome of that football game. And it's so clearly he
Speaker 1: got flagged for playing football. Chris, I've said it before,
Speaker 1: like it drives me nuts and I don't want to
Speaker 1: be that guy who comes on here every week, but
Speaker 1: the NFL is so saturated with this on a week
Speaker 1: to week basis that it makes you know, as I
Speaker 1: said it last year, for the first time, it's one
Speaker 1: thing to watch it. I'm betting on this when I
Speaker 1: don't even know when I'm betting on anymore. Well, two
Speaker 1: things I want to say about that. First of all,
Speaker 1: I think it's like a twist saying or something like
Speaker 1: that says in the more laws there are, the more
Speaker 1: laws will be broken, and that you applies to the NFL.
Speaker 1: The more rules they are, the more rules will be broken.
Speaker 1: The other thing, you know, the analytics on that on
Speaker 1: that final play when you're down at the gold mine,
Speaker 1: they're part of the analytics is if you miss it,
Speaker 1: you help your you have them at the one yard line, well,
Speaker 1: the half's gonna end, so you don't have them at anything,
Speaker 1: you know, go kick the fielding to go up. I
Speaker 1: mean that's the thing. Yeah, I mean if it's the
Speaker 1: middle of the third quarter, yeah, you go for it. Sure,
Speaker 1: because like I said, if you missed, yeah, you hold
Speaker 1: them in a bad position. But this the half was
Speaker 1: gonna end in seconds. Just not a well thought out
Speaker 1: decision by green Bay. But yeah, you're right. The penalty
Speaker 1: before that really easily, easily could have changed the entire game.
Speaker 1: So I said, carolinea minus six, and you said it's
Speaker 1: right around there, uh anywhere five and a half, the
Speaker 1: six and a half. Six really is the number. But
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open five and a half. I do see
Speaker 1: five and a halfs a round. I think I've got
Speaker 1: like five and a half a little bit better here.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll take a break. We'll do more Week
Speaker 1: eleven guessing lines. These lines so far with these matchups
Speaker 1: pretty uh pretty mechanical so far, for lack of a
Speaker 1: better term, nothing too out rages yet. We'll come back.
Speaker 1: We'll do more with Chris Andrews right here on a
Speaker 1: numbers game at Feaston Welcome back to a numbers game
Speaker 1: with you, Alexander. We had tweets set beating the book.
Speaker 1: Always appreciate the feedback. Matt Terse at Warrior zero one three.
Speaker 1: I'm convinced that no one knows what will happen in
Speaker 1: the NFL week to week. Sure we might all hit
Speaker 1: on this lock quote unquote that we had, but general
Speaker 1: we're all clueless throwing a point spread. Good lord, Um
Speaker 1: New York Mess sixteen. I'm glad Chrissy said that if
Speaker 1: it's Brady, it's not a fumble. Talking about the Jared
Speaker 1: golf fumble. I agree. Look at Green Bay where Rogers
Speaker 1: got rough and called but Alan had head twisted and
Speaker 1: refs missed quote unquote the face mask call. Almost likes
Speaker 1: our pitchers getting the corners. Um, Paul Tony my favorite
Speaker 1: show guessing lines. Thank you, James Lange. When Chris talks
Speaker 1: Steelers philosophy, I can't help but think he's talking about
Speaker 1: the exact opposite philosophy of the Skins and Lions. Nodding
Speaker 1: my head silently, yes. Brian Wright, Uh, Game plus two
Speaker 1: thirty eight. I'm optimal cable this morning, not on it.
Speaker 1: Says it's on channel in, but they're showing some video game.
Speaker 1: We've got a couple of game pluses on Twitter. They're
Speaker 1: having tech issues this morning, Jeffrey. That's why they're not
Speaker 1: people are people want their guessing lines. Man, So everybody
Speaker 1: who checks this out on Channel to thirty eight, they're
Speaker 1: don't worry. It's just a thing. Hopefully they get that corrected.
Speaker 1: And Dr Peter Bregman glad all went well with your
Speaker 1: surgery again. Cannot recommend the injection of eggs zones highly enough.
Speaker 1: Look it up stem cells. All right, look it up, Chrissie.
Speaker 1: Let's get some more lines. What do you got what's
Speaker 1: next week eleven? I was recommending the injection of morphine,
Speaker 1: which is what they gave me. Pretty good. Okay, Yeah,
Speaker 1: is uh this a quirky game there. We've got Jacksonville
Speaker 1: at Indianapolis. Um uh, Foles will be the starter for Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: And I think we're not positive who the starter is
Speaker 1: going to be for Indianapolis at this point, but you know,
Speaker 1: this is a kind of a funny game. Right now,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna guess it's Jacoby Brissette because I think he
Speaker 1: was close to plan yesterday and Brian Hoyer, Yeah, didn't
Speaker 1: exactly light the world up on fire. Indianapolis is lost
Speaker 1: to the Dolphins. They lose outright sixteen to twelve, as
Speaker 1: ten and a half or eleven point favorites, depending on
Speaker 1: where you saw the clothes. Hoyer eighteen of thirty nine,
Speaker 1: two oh four, one touchdown, three picks sacked once, only
Speaker 1: three hundred total yards for the Jaguars yesterday. Uh, Dolphins
Speaker 1: converted three Colts turnovers into thirteen points and that was
Speaker 1: it red zone stop. In the final minute of the game,
Speaker 1: Hoyer took three chances at the end zone. All were
Speaker 1: in complete. Fourth was an eight yard completion to Eric
Speaker 1: Ebron on fourth and ten. That does not work out
Speaker 1: with the math. By the way, Adam vinit terry six
Speaker 1: extra point miss of the season, and that caused the
Speaker 1: Colts to need a touchdown when they reached the Miami
Speaker 1: sixteen yard line with less than a minute to play
Speaker 1: instead of a tying field goal. Uh, this is three.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be labor. This has to be Indie
Speaker 1: minus three Jacksonville coming off the extra rest. Yes, Uh,
Speaker 1: two and a half. U two and a half is
Speaker 1: a low mark. Two and a half with some juice
Speaker 1: I see on the favorite three with juice on the
Speaker 1: dog man. It's a tough one. I think I'm gonna
Speaker 1: open three. You know, we do everything in eleven and
Speaker 1: ten here at the south Point. Uh So probably either
Speaker 1: way I open it, they're gonna bet me that way.
Speaker 1: I think Brissette. I can't believe this number hardly moved
Speaker 1: with Brissette out of the lineup. I mean when it
Speaker 1: first came out, I lowered it to the low man
Speaker 1: on the totem pole as far as you know the pointspread,
Speaker 1: and they laid it to me pretty good. And uh,
Speaker 1: I'm going to Jawyer. What was his Q? Four point four?
Speaker 1: So he takes the prize for the low lobe mark
Speaker 1: of the week. And he was that bad? He really was.
Speaker 1: I think with Jacobe present in the game, I mean,
Speaker 1: they win this game, so I'm gonna open. I guess
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open three. I think it's a tough one, though, um,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure where they're going to take in this.
Speaker 1: This is gonna be an interesting game to follows is
Speaker 1: the week because I'm not sure what to take of
Speaker 1: either quarterback at this point in time. But this is
Speaker 1: gonna be interesting, and I think we'll do a lot
Speaker 1: of action on this game because people are gonna have opinions.
Speaker 1: People are gonna have opinions. It is interesting. It's the
Speaker 1: year of the non move on quarterback changes, non move
Speaker 1: in the betting market. The most glaring example was when
Speaker 1: wish Neev and I were sitting here in the morning
Speaker 1: that Brian Flores said, no, we're going with Ryan Fitzpatrick,
Speaker 1: not Josh Rosen, and that thing didn't budge and we
Speaker 1: couldn't believe it. We couldn't believe it. Um. By the way,
Speaker 1: the Dolphins the only thing I get consistently right from
Speaker 1: week to week. What's the next game here, Let's sneak
Speaker 1: in one more Denver at Minnesota. Well after yesterday, Denver
Speaker 1: is gonna be on extra rest here too, right there?
Speaker 1: Come off a bye after last night in Minnesota's I mean,
Speaker 1: can I say Kirk cousins signature moment. I believe that
Speaker 1: Joe Buck said this. Kirk Cousin's signature moment as a
Speaker 1: member of the Vikings in terms of yeah, in terms
Speaker 1: of beating a good team on the road, Cousins was
Speaker 1: twenty three or thirty two for two twenty two touchdowns.
Speaker 1: Note picks was that just once? Dalvin cook Man twenty
Speaker 1: nine seven to touchdown seven catches for eighty six. The
Speaker 1: Vikings were eight of fourteen on third downs. They were
Speaker 1: one for one on four. I'll say this is Minnesota
Speaker 1: minus ten because this will be Brandon Allen and the
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos. Yeah. Ten, I see a little bit even
Speaker 1: higher than that, but I think tens a good number,
Speaker 1: kind of a low total, so we're expecting, uh, kind
Speaker 1: of a defensive game. But I think ten's okay here,
Speaker 1: and uh, Kirk Cousins really I thought played his best
Speaker 1: name of the season, for sure. But Dalvin cook was fantastic,
Speaker 1: he really was. And the Denver the Minnesota defense was
Speaker 1: terrific as well. Even though they they led the Dak
Speaker 1: Prescott have a pretty good game. But there they went
Speaker 1: in and I mentioned it before, they decided they were
Speaker 1: knocking to let Ezekiel Elliott beat them, and they didn't. Um.
Speaker 1: I don't think Denver has anywhere near those kind of weapons.
Speaker 1: The only the only fear I have in Minnesota. It
Speaker 1: looks so good in prime time. Uh, this number might
Speaker 1: get a little over inflated. I don't see it going
Speaker 1: in nine and a half, but I you see it
Speaker 1: maybe going to ten and a half with a public
Speaker 1: on it. If it gets up too high, you might
Speaker 1: want to take Denver. Uh in a game that figures
Speaker 1: to be very, very low scoring total I'm looking at
Speaker 1: right now is like thirty eight and a half, so
Speaker 1: you know, points may be worth taking this number does
Speaker 1: go up, which I think it will. Yeah, Minnesota, but
Speaker 1: its tendon again. I returned to normalcy on the show today.
Speaker 1: Uh no, outlandish guess is no way off so far. Anyway,
Speaker 1: We've got another hour to do. We'll see if some appear,
Speaker 1: but so far pretty much in pocket with these guests.
Speaker 1: We'll come back. We'll do more and a word on
Speaker 1: l s U Bama and the Heisman Trophy coming up
Speaker 1: on a numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a
Speaker 1: numbers game with Jill Alexander. So you would think my
Speaker 1: first thoughts Friday morning, because I knew I had to
Speaker 1: go under the knife that day for the Achilles surgery,
Speaker 1: you would think my first thought was, oh, man, I
Speaker 1: gotta have surgery today. Nope, first text I got that
Speaker 1: morning when I woke up was from Felika. Uh quote, Well,
Speaker 1: there goes the Chase Young Heisman campaign. And so as
Speaker 1: soon as I read that, I'm like, oh no, could
Speaker 1: this day get worse? Uh So Chase Young immediately suspended. Um,
Speaker 1: that was the first thing. And then on Saturday, of
Speaker 1: course L s U Abama. What a football game. Everything
Speaker 1: we could have hoped for from an L. S U
Speaker 1: Alabama game, and Joe Burrow won the Heisman Trophy that day. Period.
Speaker 1: What are the what are the updated odds here at
Speaker 1: the south point Jeff Joe Burrow minus a thousand now
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts second favorite of twelve to one fields at
Speaker 1: fifteen and one two at twenty one. It's gonna take
Speaker 1: something really crazy for Joe Burrow not to win this thing.
Speaker 1: And if you go to like Draft Kings, you'll see
Speaker 1: people like Chase fifty to one to be on it.
Speaker 1: That that's it. It's it's Burrows to lose, and I
Speaker 1: don't know how he loses it at this point. Um,
Speaker 1: So that's the deal. Chris. Do you expect like zero
Speaker 1: money to come in on this anymore? Yeah? God, we
Speaker 1: get murdered on Joe Burrow, we do. I really, I was, well,
Speaker 1: we had a lot of money line play on L
Speaker 1: s U on Saturday. You know, the point spread was
Speaker 1: actually you know, pretty well bent on both sides, but
Speaker 1: a lot of money line on L. S U. And
Speaker 1: I do agree with you. Joe Burrow, I think won
Speaker 1: the Heisman on Saturday, so we really kind of want
Speaker 1: to damn it a win to take away some of
Speaker 1: that steam on Burrow. But we beat up pretty good
Speaker 1: with him winning the Heisman. I think it's you know,
Speaker 1: I'm not quite a foregone conclusion, but pretty darn and
Speaker 1: close at this point. Could you define could you define
Speaker 1: beat up pretty good? Because what's that market like? Uh,
Speaker 1: it's pretty significant. I gotta tell you, m yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean it's uh, you know, I don't want to throw
Speaker 1: out numbers. Jimmy does that all the time, but I
Speaker 1: don't ask him. When he's on the show. He'll tell
Speaker 1: you what it is. It's pretty bad for Jimmy. Christy forgot. Yes, now,
Speaker 1: Jimmy's he's just probably having his eight muffin mcnog trade
Speaker 1: now with his coffee. But when he, like a beam,
Speaker 1: throws out the numbers, that will throw them out quite
Speaker 1: so readily. So, by the way, you know, can we
Speaker 1: go back and uh, I'm gonna amend the number here, Carolina,
Speaker 1: I said I was gonna open five and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open that six, all right? Yeah, the tight
Speaker 1: end for Atlanta Hooper, who's uh I think has fifty
Speaker 1: six receptions? The tight end leading type. Yeah, bleating tight
Speaker 1: Endrasira and uh I got the jump out. Well we'll
Speaker 1: finish that thought. Coming up, we'll get more lunch, we'll
Speaker 1: get the clarifies thought coming up on a numbers game
Speaker 1: at Feast Sport for Today show, as always comes from
Speaker 1: bookmaker dot EU, an industry leader for close to thirty years. Now,
Speaker 1: you know how the bookmaker motto goes. It's where the
Speaker 1: lines originate, because chances are your sports book follows their line.
Speaker 1: It's not just their motto, it is the truth. It's
Speaker 1: a high volume of sports book bestuity for a sophisticated
Speaker 1: player who understands sports betting also caters to large recreational players.
Speaker 1: Perhaps that describes you. But here's the deal. Their first
Speaker 1: to post dots, They take the highest limits, and they
Speaker 1: pride themselves on never having kicked out a winning player.
Speaker 1: I cannot stress enough how big that last thing is.
Speaker 1: They're all big, but that last thing is increasingly rare
Speaker 1: in this global landscape of sports books and right now,
Speaker 1: of course, as always, if you visit Bookmaker dot E
Speaker 1: slash gill, that's bookmaker dot U splash g I l
Speaker 1: L joined today you can claim an exclusive welcome bonus
Speaker 1: of up to three hundred dollars. Once a gain's Bookmaker
Speaker 1: dot e slash gill to join and claim your welcome
Speaker 1: bonus of up to three hundred dollars. I wouldn't bet
Speaker 1: without them the truth Bookmaker dot E slash gill. It's
Speaker 1: a numbers game with your host, kill Alexander. You want
Speaker 1: those units to believe in Adam limits our number two
Speaker 1: of guessing lines right here on a numbers game of
Speaker 1: Visa and the Vega Stats and Information Network series Sex
Speaker 1: and Jail to It for Visa dot Com, the Visa
Speaker 1: at Fubo Slaying game. Plus it's all brought to you
Speaker 1: by the bet mgm AP by the way, where first
Speaker 1: time players can make the first bet completely risk free
Speaker 1: up to five hundred United States dollars. Same folks who
Speaker 1: brought you Borgota, Atlantic City's premier hotel and casino be
Speaker 1: with the all season long with a wide variety of
Speaker 1: betting options and easy deposit and withdrawal methods. Just download
Speaker 1: the app, use bonus code, VISA and five hundred. It's
Speaker 1: signed up to get your five hundred dollar risk free bet.
Speaker 1: Bonus code v s I N five hundred. It's place
Speaker 1: your first bet. MGM wags your risk free You could
Speaker 1: sign up anywhere, but you gotta be in the state
Speaker 1: of New Jersey to place a bet. Bet MGM is
Speaker 1: how do you play the game? Download the app today,
Speaker 1: gotta be twenty one year older. New Jersey only restrictions apply.
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one gambler. That's the bet MGM AP,
Speaker 1: VISA and five hundred. The code you need to use
Speaker 1: it is Gil Alexander. Jeff Parlay Producer number five is
Speaker 1: here as well. I'm hopped up on drugs, so that's fun.
Speaker 1: No telling what I'll say. Um well, the last thing
Speaker 1: about the l s U Alabama again on Saturday. L
Speaker 1: s U forty six Alabama forty one. Bandel was favored
Speaker 1: by five points closing line of that game. Not only
Speaker 1: did Joe Burrow win the Heisman vote. I was watching
Speaker 1: two A Jeff just when I would just when I
Speaker 1: would get the thought man to it. I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure where I would draft this guy, like
Speaker 1: I was just down grading down as soon as I
Speaker 1: would have that thought. He'd throw a dime deep. Man,
Speaker 1: he throws a nice deep ball, but he's too hurt
Speaker 1: too often. He's too brittle at that age, um and
Speaker 1: nothing is his fault. But that's just you got. You
Speaker 1: know what does Paul Sport saying baseball staying healthy as
Speaker 1: a skill, and I'm not sure to a has that,
Speaker 1: and uh good for good for l s U. Here's
Speaker 1: what will be interesting this week, And of course the
Speaker 1: second rankings come out tomorrow. Again, only the last one matters.
Speaker 1: But where will Obama go? We know where LSU's going.
Speaker 1: Where will Obama go? Will they drop below Oregon in Utah?
Speaker 1: Or will they be ranked ahead of Oregon in Utah?
Speaker 1: Because if if you put them below Oregon in Utah,
Speaker 1: in what world are those two teams better than Bama?
Speaker 1: Just stop it, even understanding this is Obama team that
Speaker 1: doesn't have the big dogs on d offense like they
Speaker 1: used to in previous years. But come on, yes, Jeffrey,
Speaker 1: I think Batman is gonna be four. I think they
Speaker 1: only saw one spot. One spot? You think only one? Yeah,
Speaker 1: so you think Clemson is still gonna be fine. I
Speaker 1: think I think Climes are gonna be three. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: think I think it's l Se Ohio State Clemson one
Speaker 1: to three. They're getting all those three teams are getting in,
Speaker 1: assuming they went out. Even Ohio State could suffer one
Speaker 1: loss and still probably get in. Clemson's not losing. I
Speaker 1: think Alabam it's either Alabama or Georgia. Number four. You
Speaker 1: can't just the Pactole teams are nowhere near as good
Speaker 1: as no, no way even close. Let's just stop with that.
Speaker 1: It'll be interesting how it plays out tomorrow. Let's bring
Speaker 1: in Chris Andrews. I don't know if he has any
Speaker 1: thoughts on that, but I know you wanted to clarify
Speaker 1: the Carolina thing again. Carolina who you're putting up a
Speaker 1: six point favorites, uh in their game this coming week
Speaker 1: against the Who are they playing again? Who do we
Speaker 1: say they're playing? They're playing the Atlanta Falcons. So Carolina
Speaker 1: is gonna be six point? Yeah, I'm gonna go to six.
Speaker 1: You know, Hooper and Freeman looked like they're Hoopers out.
Speaker 1: Freeman looks highly questionable. So two pretty big offensive weapons
Speaker 1: for Atlanta. So I'm gonna go to stay five minuving
Speaker 1: six so many I was, I was leaning towards five
Speaker 1: and a half, and I'm gonna go to six minutes.
Speaker 1: There's still five and halves around, by the way, but
Speaker 1: I like six little better. Back to your college football.
Speaker 1: You don't win the games on the field, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry when the games on the field not to
Speaker 1: come down to a vote. Firstballer should be eight teams
Speaker 1: and five conference champions and then vote in three teams.
Speaker 1: You know, I think it's ridiculous. You know, you don't
Speaker 1: even win your division in college football. But Ohio State
Speaker 1: in Alabama, theyn't get in. They don't have to win
Speaker 1: any It could be seven and five and someone like
Speaker 1: you're telling me they're not better than Oregon. I don't care. FeliCa.
Speaker 1: FeliCa says Georgia four Georgia. I think he's right. Um
Speaker 1: as probably right, but geez, go win it on the field,
Speaker 1: for God's sake. Don't just have let you Condoleeza Rice
Speaker 1: vote in. She's come on, oh sure, pick on condoles.
Speaker 1: It crizzy for her, and about you know twenty others.
Speaker 1: You know, you don't win on the field, so that
Speaker 1: that was Again, it only doesn't matter to the edit,
Speaker 1: but for it matters betting for futures tickets that people have.
Speaker 1: But it's how I started it on on Wednesday of
Speaker 1: last week. It's interesting from the perspective because you have
Speaker 1: the rational thought perspective, which you know I was talking
Speaker 1: about on Wednesday, which is the only problem I have
Speaker 1: is that they're inconsistent, right they vote one team four
Speaker 1: instead of five based on resume, which they did Penn
Speaker 1: State over Clemson. But at the top there Ohio State
Speaker 1: over LSU just because they're better at football, they say.
Speaker 1: So there's all kinds of inconsistencies, and I think that's
Speaker 1: sort of a rational way to look at it. But
Speaker 1: then there's the conspiracy theorist right who or like, oh,
Speaker 1: they're just trying to get a pack twelve team in there,
Speaker 1: no matter what's It will be interesting to see how
Speaker 1: how this plays out. It's certainly fun to talk about.
Speaker 1: We got games to get to, though, Chrissy. Let's let's
Speaker 1: say continue with Week eleven in the NFL. What's next.
Speaker 1: There's a great one. The Jets at the Redskin. Yes,
Speaker 1: clear my schedule. The Jets win yesterday they beat the Giants. Uh,
Speaker 1: they do so by the score of thirty one to
Speaker 1: twenty four. Congratulations Jeff Parlay and the Jets nation. Sam
Speaker 1: Donald after the game. By the way, they do so
Speaker 1: as three point closing dogs. Sam Donald after the game yesterday. Uh,
Speaker 1: if we win out, we can still make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: That is a quote, technically correct. Technically correct. The Jets
Speaker 1: are two and seven. It should be noted you're you're
Speaker 1: not looking at the standings incorrectly. The Redskins are one
Speaker 1: and eight. The Redskins are coming off some arrest here.
Speaker 1: Sam Donald yesterday in victory, nineteen thirty one touchdowns, no
Speaker 1: pick uh, sack twice he ran for another score. Snapped
Speaker 1: the Jets three game losing streak. They were plus two
Speaker 1: and turnovers versus the Giants. Giants lost their sixth straight,
Speaker 1: by the way, but they gave up yards passing to
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, who had four touchdown passes. They did sack
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones six times, but Slayton scored twice on the
Speaker 1: Golden tate. Did they did hold the Giants? Here was
Speaker 1: the key stat of the game. They held the Giants
Speaker 1: to twenty three yards rushing, twenty of which came from
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones himself and say Kwan Barkley thirteen carries for
Speaker 1: one yard, and when you make a team one dimensional,
Speaker 1: it's a lot easier to play football. Third team carries
Speaker 1: from one yard. Um, sure, Lombardi's gonna have a lot
Speaker 1: to say about that, including say Quan's ability to uh
Speaker 1: chip block. Uh. If I say the Redskins are favored,
Speaker 1: will you accuse me of being a homer? I still
Speaker 1: have the Redskins minus two and a half here. Well,
Speaker 1: that's interesting. I see this game from one all the
Speaker 1: way to two and a half, and let me just say,
Speaker 1: probably the outfit. I have the most respect for hashim
Speaker 1: a two and a half. I like it, you know,
Speaker 1: I would you know I have trouble going there part
Speaker 1: looking at me like I'm crazy. I'm on fire, Jeff,
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna stick like one and a half here.
Speaker 1: Oh my god. Meanwhile, let me say that because the
Speaker 1: Giants have a week off, so we're not gonna get
Speaker 1: to the Giants. I always thought Sam Donald like my
Speaker 1: knock against him, as he does not protect the ball,
Speaker 1: whether it's during interceptions or fumbling. Daniel Jones is worse.
Speaker 1: I mean, I never my God, protect the ball for God,
Speaker 1: say jeez oh man. So I mean, like I said,
Speaker 1: Giants have the week off. Maybe they put some glue
Speaker 1: on his fingers or something in the next week so
Speaker 1: he'll learn something. But Jets, I thought they played pretty well. Um,
Speaker 1: like you know, the Giants certainly helped them out, but
Speaker 1: I think one and a half. So okay, you know
Speaker 1: it's still the Redskins. And I'll tell you what I
Speaker 1: could see already right now, what's gonna happen. There's gonna
Speaker 1: be so many six point teasers and the Jets taking
Speaker 1: them plus seven and then absolutely and I do not
Speaker 1: blame them one bit. It's almost like you're handing them
Speaker 1: a win. That's the Yeah, seven and a half on
Speaker 1: this game would be ridiculous, like you have one end
Speaker 1: on your keys are in already. Jets are everybody's first
Speaker 1: teaser leg of the week, Yes, Jeff, Yeah, Because the
Speaker 1: total is only thirty anywhere from thirty. I see one
Speaker 1: thirty seven, the mostly thirty seven, a half thirty eight,
Speaker 1: So it's gonna be a low scoring game. It takes
Speaker 1: seven half in a game like that, again, especially against Washington.
Speaker 1: This league is this league is filled with so many
Speaker 1: direct teams it's not even fun. And these are two.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll see another Buffalo at Miami. Al Right,
Speaker 1: we talked about both of these teams. Buffalo and defeat
Speaker 1: to the Browns Miami and victory against the Colts Buffalo.
Speaker 1: Josh Allen forty one to sixty six. Again, no touchdown, passes,
Speaker 1: one pick if he sacked once, but he does things
Speaker 1: with his feet. Six carries twenty eight yards, two touchdowns.
Speaker 1: I always think about my friend Bob Stole, Dr Bob,
Speaker 1: who is a big college football guy, and one of
Speaker 1: the things that he's really good at his projecting quarterbacks
Speaker 1: from college into the pros. And one of the things
Speaker 1: he always says is, look, the only thing that is
Speaker 1: super reliable projection wise is completion percentage. Accuracy is one
Speaker 1: of those things that just can't be acquired that easily.
Speaker 1: And so there's been any number of drafts through the
Speaker 1: years where he has accurately said these guys like I
Speaker 1: remember the Blaine Gabbert Christian Ponder draft. You remember that one.
Speaker 1: He was like, how Blaine Gabbert can be drafted by anyone?
Speaker 1: I have no idea based on accuracy? And in this one,
Speaker 1: you know, he has said this about Josh Allen the
Speaker 1: whole way through. He's like, look, this guy cannot He's
Speaker 1: got no accuracy whatsoever. And I really do think we
Speaker 1: have not written the final chapter on Josh Allen. I
Speaker 1: don't know how to feel about him. He loses yesterday.
Speaker 1: There's six and three are the bills, but I don't
Speaker 1: think anybody's Garrett about six and three. Uh. And Miami here,
Speaker 1: which I said again is the only thing I've consistently
Speaker 1: gotten right from week to week is that I value
Speaker 1: Miami so differently than the market does. And week after
Speaker 1: week we are cashing against the number on the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: Ryan Fitzpatrick yesterday one thirty three for one sixty nine,
Speaker 1: no touchdowns, one pick, sack, three times. Miami wins it
Speaker 1: despite only gaining two twenty nine yards uh scoring on
Speaker 1: the ground by the fleet of foot nimble thirty six
Speaker 1: year old Fitzpatrick, who UH said he wasn't even sure
Speaker 1: he was gonna make it to the end zone, and
Speaker 1: then late in the game, booth officials told the refs
Speaker 1: to send him to the sideline. At the start of
Speaker 1: Miami's final series, I don't know if you saw that
Speaker 1: after he had taken helmet to helmet hit on the
Speaker 1: previous series, so Josh Rosen was actually in there for
Speaker 1: a while. But I will say it in spirit of
Speaker 1: the in the spirit of the last three weeks. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna make a guess here, and I'm going to hope
Speaker 1: that I am uh low here, and then I can
Speaker 1: bet on the Dolphins again. I'm gonna say Buffalo minus
Speaker 1: four and a half on the road. Well, I like
Speaker 1: your number quite bit, but there's a lot of sixes around.
Speaker 1: I see it mostly five and a half and six.
Speaker 1: I see one six and a half with juice on
Speaker 1: the dog. I'm with you. I'm gonna open this five.
Speaker 1: I see one outfit and I mentioned him. I don't
Speaker 1: want to mention their names, but an outfit that I
Speaker 1: really respect. They have it five, and I'm gonna open
Speaker 1: the game five. You know, I'm a few I think Miami,
Speaker 1: you know, under Fitzpatrick is really you know not. I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't want to say they're good, but I mean
Speaker 1: they've covered like, what four in a row. I think
Speaker 1: something like that, maybe even more net uh but you know,
Speaker 1: they're not that bad Buffalo are They're gonna put up
Speaker 1: a bunch of points there, and I just don't see it,
Speaker 1: you know, Josh Allen, you know, I don't know. I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm not crazy about him, certainly. I hate rooting against
Speaker 1: anybody in this league, like I said, any of these
Speaker 1: young quarterbacks, because I want to see the league do well.
Speaker 1: But I'm kind of a doctor Bob on this one.
Speaker 1: I you know, I just don't see it. I mean,
Speaker 1: I hope he gets better. I wouldn't count on it. Um,
Speaker 1: but I like I like five here. I don't know
Speaker 1: what at five they'll probably bet me again low total
Speaker 1: thirty nine, so you know points are gonna be at
Speaker 1: a premium here. Um, But I think i'd like Miami
Speaker 1: in this game. And if he can get six, and
Speaker 1: there's a lot of six out there, I would take
Speaker 1: Miami plus to six. I think Miamie got a good
Speaker 1: that would be a good play. Yeah, I'll grab the
Speaker 1: six immediately. That's the first one I really like today.
Speaker 1: Let's do another or still still early games here. One
Speaker 1: more early game. Okay, interesting game. Houston at Baltimore. That's
Speaker 1: probably the best matchup we've had so far, right, Houston
Speaker 1: at Baltimore. Houston six and three, Baltimore seven and two
Speaker 1: Baltimore yesterday Houston obviously coming off by here. Baltimore has
Speaker 1: has won five in a row now for the first
Speaker 1: time since yesterday. Lamar Jackson fifteen of seventeen for two
Speaker 1: d twenty three yards, three touchdowns, no picks, was never sacked,
Speaker 1: seven carries sixty five yards, a touchdown, and a one
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty eight point three passer rating perfection. It
Speaker 1: is his second perfect passer rating of this season. Only
Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger in two thousand seven has done that, had
Speaker 1: two perfect ratings in a one season. So Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 1: meet Big Ben, You're the only two. He completed a
Speaker 1: forty nine yard pass on the very first play of
Speaker 1: the game and then the signature play of the game,
Speaker 1: perhaps the week, and perhaps the season in the National
Speaker 1: Football League, and will be if Lamar Jackson ever puts
Speaker 1: on a gold jacket many years from now, and I
Speaker 1: know that's a big if, but if he does. This
Speaker 1: is on the highlight reel, a three hundred sixty degree
Speaker 1: spin yesterday on Nick Vigil and UH and his Bengal
Speaker 1: teammates that UH put them to the ground helplessly on
Speaker 1: a forty seven yard scamper from Lamar Jackson a thing
Speaker 1: of beauty. It's like hitting the maddened spin button at
Speaker 1: the perfect moment. There were also four of six on
Speaker 1: third downs. Noteworthy, they only had six third downs one
Speaker 1: of one on fourth down uh r G three by
Speaker 1: the way, three or five or twenty yards, no touchdowns,
Speaker 1: one pick and so I could just need to contractually
Speaker 1: obligated to point that out. And Micca Fitzpatrick is the
Speaker 1: Steelers version of this. But Marcus Peters, who is just
Speaker 1: a risk taker, feaster famine kind of guy. He picked
Speaker 1: off Ryan Finley in this game, and the return at
Speaker 1: eighty nine yards to the house his third pick six
Speaker 1: of this season. So Marcus Peters seven defensive touchdowns since
Speaker 1: entering the league, and that's the most in the NFL
Speaker 1: over that span. Not sure how analytics guys like him,
Speaker 1: but he certainly when it goes his way, goes very
Speaker 1: well his way in dramatic fashion. I'll say Baltimore minus four.
Speaker 1: This is a huge game with teams headed for the postseason.
Speaker 1: I'll say it's more than three. I'll say Baltimore minus
Speaker 1: four or you're right on, but I see four and
Speaker 1: four and a half. I'm gonna use a four and
Speaker 1: a half. I gotta tell you, Lamar Jackson. You know
Speaker 1: I've bet against him yesterday. I just thought the number
Speaker 1: was a little too high. Uh, Mike, it didn't take
Speaker 1: me long to realize how long I was. Uh. You
Speaker 1: talked about his perfect passer rating. I looked at the
Speaker 1: qb R. Its QBR with ninety nine point eight, and
Speaker 1: I can never remember one QBR higher than that. Of
Speaker 1: course that's from zero hundred eight, so it was like
Speaker 1: two tenths of a point away from perfection on the QBR.
Speaker 1: It's fantastic. I mean, just everything he did sixteen and seventeen,
Speaker 1: so we're talking about accuracy, Uh, you know, thirteen point
Speaker 1: one yards per attempt, which is a big statistic for me.
Speaker 1: He was just terrific. And you know, listen, I'm a
Speaker 1: stealer fans of hard for me to say any positive
Speaker 1: about the Ravens all these years. But what have I said?
Speaker 1: John har But I think the second best coach in
Speaker 1: the NFL, he said, I think he deserves a lot
Speaker 1: of He deserves a lot of credit for not trying
Speaker 1: to make Lamar Jackson what he's not. I mean, this
Speaker 1: kid is a fantastic talent and they have kind of
Speaker 1: used that to the best of his ability. And the
Speaker 1: evens they're inconsistent, I know what people are saying. I
Speaker 1: mean every team in the NFL's inconsistent, you know, I
Speaker 1: mean every one of them. So let's not go overboard
Speaker 1: knock in the Ravens. I think they're really good. They
Speaker 1: have a great chance to to win the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: and uh, I I like them in this spot there Therefore,
Speaker 1: I think that's a little cheap. I thought this number
Speaker 1: would be closer to six myself, So it's four and
Speaker 1: four and a half. I'm an open four and a
Speaker 1: half like the higher number here. Uh. You know, Houston,
Speaker 1: they have their moments to no doubt about it. They're
Speaker 1: pretty decent team. But you know, Baltimore, boy Jackson is
Speaker 1: just unbelievable and unbelievable talent, and they're really using him
Speaker 1: about as well as they can. I hope he stays healthy.
Speaker 1: That's the one thing. The guy that runs like that. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know they're looking at Cam Newton um. You know,
Speaker 1: it wore him down over the course of years. I
Speaker 1: hope Jackson does not get worn down. I think I
Speaker 1: hope he's more like Russell Wilson and learns how to
Speaker 1: avoid taking the big hits. And that lasts a long
Speaker 1: time in this league, you know, because he really is
Speaker 1: a terrific player. Well, there's so many things there. One,
Speaker 1: you know, his uh, his backup RG three, the knock
Speaker 1: on r G three, among several knocks, but one of
Speaker 1: them was, oh, he he all, he just takes punishment.
Speaker 1: He didn't know how to get out of bounds. And
Speaker 1: I always thought that that was such results oriented criticism
Speaker 1: of r G three. Right, he got hurt. I get it,
Speaker 1: but it wasn't because he was doing anything differently than
Speaker 1: anybody else. So I think you're right, you hope that
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson can stay healthy, But you said it earlier
Speaker 1: and and and this is sort of macro football to me.
Speaker 1: Give the Ravens where they used Lamar Jackson for what
Speaker 1: he is. They didn't try to make him something that
Speaker 1: he wasn't. I always say Joe Gibbs, the reason that
Speaker 1: I consider him the greatest coach of all time is
Speaker 1: that he tailored his xs and ohs to the personnel
Speaker 1: that he had. Whenever he had that specific personnel, he
Speaker 1: wasn't arrogant, he didn't come in thinking it's my system.
Speaker 1: I know what's going on, and the only way to
Speaker 1: play is my way. And those are the marks of
Speaker 1: the truly great coaches. And Parlay and I had this
Speaker 1: conversation before the show Lamar Jackson, who again the Colts
Speaker 1: maneuvered to pick someone else at the during the first
Speaker 1: round of that draft, and then they just decided sort
Speaker 1: of at thirty two, Uh, yeah, let's let's go get
Speaker 1: the quarterback. Why not? And why not? Because John Horball
Speaker 1: did not come as a defensive coach or as an
Speaker 1: offensive coach, right, he was a special teams coach. There
Speaker 1: was really no identity that he had to uh conform to.
Speaker 1: And I find them Horball Jackson, I find that team
Speaker 1: so likable from that standpoint. And we wondered, we sort
Speaker 1: of were, you know, thinking football if Lamar Jackson ended
Speaker 1: up somewhere else. And this is the big hypotheticals in
Speaker 1: the National Football League that you can never answer. But
Speaker 1: I used to say the reverse of that. I used
Speaker 1: to say they used to make people's heads explode that
Speaker 1: if Peyton Manning were drafted by my Washington Redskins, he
Speaker 1: never would have become Peyton Manning. Now people are like, Oh,
Speaker 1: you're crazy. No, I'm not, because he would have had
Speaker 1: a different coach and he would have had a different
Speaker 1: coordinator every single year. Now, do I think he would
Speaker 1: have sucked? No, he comes from pedigree, his dad was
Speaker 1: in the NFL. I don't think he ever would have
Speaker 1: bottomed out. But would I would he be a much
Speaker 1: more pedestrian quarterback than he ended up being. Absolutely, Now,
Speaker 1: there's no way I can prove it. There's no way
Speaker 1: you can prove it. But I think about someone like
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. I'm wondering if he ends up with any
Speaker 1: of those other teams early in the first round, and
Speaker 1: Parley and I were talking about this, who would those
Speaker 1: teams be? The Dolphins, the Jets, the Bills. I'm leaving
Speaker 1: one out, You're you're leaving out Cleveland and Cleveland right,
Speaker 1: Cleveland at the very top. If he ends up with
Speaker 1: any of those other teams, does he end up first
Speaker 1: of all playing at this point right? Perhaps? Yes? But
Speaker 1: do those coaches have the humility as opposed to the
Speaker 1: arrogance to let Lamar Jackson's skill set dictate what's going on,
Speaker 1: as opposed to imposing their will on him? And there's
Speaker 1: no way we can know that, and so that's why
Speaker 1: to me, this is a beautiful thing that's happening in Baltimore. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm with you, you know. I mean, there's a lot
Speaker 1: of teams that I think have ruling the quarterbacks over
Speaker 1: the years. And when was the last time the Bear
Speaker 1: has had a good quarterback? I mean Jim McMahon was,
Speaker 1: you know, pretty serviceable, obviously won a Super Bowl. You know,
Speaker 1: I've been watching football. I'm sixty three years old. You know,
Speaker 1: Bobby Douglas was a second. That's what Jim Avalini going
Speaker 1: way back, that they have not figured out how to
Speaker 1: use or how to draft quarterbacks. Now they draft, they
Speaker 1: move up to draft Trabinsky, and I'm not sure Trabinsky
Speaker 1: is the answer. Not looks like not, you know, but
Speaker 1: his coaching certainly has not helped him, not at all.
Speaker 1: And you can make that. I've heard, you know, Mike
Speaker 1: Greenberg on ESPN says they ruin more quarterbacks and they
Speaker 1: developed and I think that's absolutely true. And you know, Baltimore,
Speaker 1: I guess they're they're developing Jackson, but he's developing himself
Speaker 1: a lot too, and they're letting him do it. And uh,
Speaker 1: like I said, I'm as a Steeler fan and it's hard.
Speaker 1: I hate seeing that success out of Baltimore, but you
Speaker 1: have to appreciate it for what it is. I mean,
Speaker 1: there's a that's a good organization and they handled this
Speaker 1: kid a hundred percent. Right. We'll come back. We'll do
Speaker 1: the afternoon games Week eleven. Guessing lines in the National
Speaker 1: Football League with Chris Andrews. It's a numbers game right
Speaker 1: here at Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game with
Speaker 1: Jill Alexander, Craig Parley's father Jeff Parlay. Excuse me, Jeff
Speaker 1: Parley father Kreig Barley. It's the drugs, Jeff. They blame
Speaker 1: it all on that's me. Don't blame it on the sunshine.
Speaker 1: Don't blame it on the moon light. Don't blame it
Speaker 1: all the good times. Blame it on the drugs. Uh.
Speaker 1: Craig Parl's Jeff's father loved the Raheem Morris reference. Thank you.
Speaker 1: Back when he was coaching the Bucks, Bill Simmons created
Speaker 1: a stat name after him to measure coaching performance. It
Speaker 1: was called wins above Raheem Morris or warm, not to
Speaker 1: be confused with war. That was a fine Bill Simmons moment. Warm,
Speaker 1: what was your worst Bill Simmons moment? I have a few,
Speaker 1: getting to those later. All right, let's do afternoon games,
Speaker 1: Chrissie Chris Andrews later. You can follow him by the
Speaker 1: way on Twitter Andrew Sports. And of course the name
Speaker 1: of the book. We haven't plugged the book yet today
Speaker 1: for goodness sakes, um it's called Then one Day forty
Speaker 1: years of bookmaking in Nevada with Chris Andrews. All the
Speaker 1: great story times are in there in written form. Some
Speaker 1: you may not remember being told, just great detail, wonderful
Speaker 1: and you told one of them last week to great response,
Speaker 1: the old horse racing one. That's all classic. Yeah, little Britain.
Speaker 1: What's what's the movie? It's a Woody Allen movie where
Speaker 1: Alan all That plays this total jerk and he says, now,
Speaker 1: comedy is tragedy plus time. Well, that's a tragedy plus time.
Speaker 1: I can laugh at it now, wasn't that funny on
Speaker 1: the day? And I can tell you that tragedy plus time?
Speaker 1: I love that. Yeah, it's kind of true anyway, Okay,
Speaker 1: uh niners. Of course playing tonight, we have Arizona at
Speaker 1: the San Francisco for you Niners. How do we feel
Speaker 1: about that game tonight? By the way, Niners. All the
Speaker 1: analytics folks love the Niners tonight, and then of course
Speaker 1: there's an m v P. Russell Wilson to uh pull
Speaker 1: out the analytics. Niners, as you mentioned, favored by six?
Speaker 1: Is it tonight still the number? Yeah? Six? Uh? In
Speaker 1: San Francisco? Good Monday night game. Do you just say
Speaker 1: San Francisco is playing Arizona again? Didn't they just play
Speaker 1: a second ago Arizona at San Francisco this tome So
Speaker 1: this is the second game in three weeks between these
Speaker 1: two teams, second game in three weeks between these teas.
Speaker 1: They had a Thursday night affair where Arizona back door
Speaker 1: them uh to cover If you recall on an eighty
Speaker 1: eight yard touchdown pass yesterday, Arizona, as we pointed out,
Speaker 1: lost to Tampa Bay Kyler Murray in typical and typical
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray fashion. He is not fun to bet against.
Speaker 1: Arizona covers forty four for Kyler four yards, three touchdowns,
Speaker 1: a pick sack twice, three carries thirty eight yards. Christian
Speaker 1: Kirk six catches for one thirty eight three touchdowns. He's
Speaker 1: a fantasy Juggernaut yesterday. Here's the thing with Arizona. They
Speaker 1: were one for ten on third down, two for two
Speaker 1: on fourth downs. They had eleven penalties for eighties seven yards,
Speaker 1: and as I mentioned, Murray's uh streak without throwing a pick,
Speaker 1: which he had since September twenty nine, the span of
Speaker 1: six games that got snapped. Arizona also lost a fumble
Speaker 1: for the first time all season. How about that fumble
Speaker 1: luck fans? If you're a fan of fumble luck, I
Speaker 1: give you the Arizona Cardinals who lost their first fumble yesterday.
Speaker 1: So you can figure this one out. That spread two
Speaker 1: weeks ago. If I recall, I guessed San Francisco minus ten.
Speaker 1: You opened it at eight. It came to me at ten.
Speaker 1: So if that was San Francisco by ten on the road,
Speaker 1: Arizona ended up covering, this is now San Francisco at home. Uh.
Speaker 1: Mechanically it would be a six point shift because Arizona covered.
Speaker 1: Let me dock that I will say san Francisco minus fourteen.
Speaker 1: You can kind of do this formulaically. Yeah, I don't
Speaker 1: disagree with your number, but it's thirteen and a half
Speaker 1: and I kind of like that a little bit better. Um,
Speaker 1: you know Kyler Murray. Hey, listen, he's better than I
Speaker 1: thought he was gonna be. I really I didn't like
Speaker 1: him coming out. I just thought he was too little.
Speaker 1: But you know he's played well. We talked about lasting
Speaker 1: in this league and see him lasting too long. But
Speaker 1: you know, I don't like coaching so much for Arizona
Speaker 1: all the you know they covered yesterday, God knows. Um,
Speaker 1: I like thirteen and a half here, just you know
Speaker 1: San Francisco is gonna be coming off a Monday night game.
Speaker 1: You know, winner loses a big game facing Seattle, a
Speaker 1: long time rival. Arizona not that much, even though they're
Speaker 1: in the same division. But I like thirteen and a half.
Speaker 1: That's where I'm gonna open it. We'll see what happens tonight.
Speaker 1: But I think that's a pretty decent number. I wouldn't
Speaker 1: want to go too high against Kyler Murray because they
Speaker 1: are definitely covering some numbers, no doubt about it, No
Speaker 1: doubt about in San Francisco. Of course, as Chris mentioned,
Speaker 1: Site Unseen haven't played yet. We'll see what happens tonight.
Speaker 1: What else in the afternoon, New England at Philadelphia. Oh,
Speaker 1: there's a game this was the This was the matchup
Speaker 1: that I had predicted for the Super Bowl this year
Speaker 1: before the season started. That's not looking all that great.
Speaker 1: On the Philly side, New England's eight and one, Phillies
Speaker 1: five and four, both coming off a bye here. Um,
Speaker 1: I'll just say there for since there's no game to
Speaker 1: talk about yesterday, New England minus three on the road. Well,
Speaker 1: I kind of like your number better, but it's three
Speaker 1: and a half and I don't want to play that
Speaker 1: little three three and a half game all week, So
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open it three and a half and see
Speaker 1: what they want to do with it. I think some
Speaker 1: wise guys might be on the dog. I think that
Speaker 1: kind of think the bogg is the right side here.
Speaker 1: I think three and a half's a little too high,
Speaker 1: and I think it'd be a tank for Philadelphia. You know,
Speaker 1: Philly is one of those teams. Again. We're just waiting
Speaker 1: for them to get it together and maybe having the
Speaker 1: week off will help them do that. Exactly that. I mean,
Speaker 1: New England. They' the best team that though, they you know, probably,
Speaker 1: but their heads above everybody, I don't think so. You know,
Speaker 1: they really played a very soft schedule so far, and
Speaker 1: you know Brady is still Brady, but I'll probably get
Speaker 1: a bunch of tweets from people from New England, you know,
Speaker 1: but you know, he's not what he was. And the
Speaker 1: defense I think has really carried them. But again, they've
Speaker 1: played a lot of soft opponents so far this year.
Speaker 1: And I think Philly, I think they certainly have the
Speaker 1: potential to get it together. I think to meet three
Speaker 1: and a halfs that take here, I'm gonna open it
Speaker 1: three and a half. But if I was out there betting,
Speaker 1: I think I would. I think I'd be out there
Speaker 1: and play on Philadelphia plus the three and a half.
Speaker 1: You know, as you're as you're saying that, I'm thinking
Speaker 1: to myself, how many teams in the a f C
Speaker 1: truly scare you? So New England because it's New England,
Speaker 1: it's Belichick and it's Brandy, and you always know they're scary. Uh,
Speaker 1: Baltimore because of Lamar Jackson just the X factor. You
Speaker 1: you can't defense Houston maybe honorable mention, but like, is
Speaker 1: there any other team that's not horrifically flawed other than that?
Speaker 1: Kansas City's defense is Oakland's defense is awful. You know,
Speaker 1: we're not for his offenses is awful. I mean, that's
Speaker 1: kind of it. That's kind of a list. So I
Speaker 1: said three, but you're opening three and a half because
Speaker 1: you don't want to play a three and a half
Speaker 1: three game. Yeah, I mean you know, like like he
Speaker 1: texted early in the show, Yeah, that three wad killed
Speaker 1: us on Dallas last night. And I definitely had a
Speaker 1: chance to come into three. Um. So I think this
Speaker 1: will be a very well bet game, and it should be.
Speaker 1: This This is a terrific matchup, a Super Bowl matchup
Speaker 1: from a couple of years back. But um, you know,
Speaker 1: I think I think three and a halfs a take.
Speaker 1: I I kind of like the dog here last one afternoon,
Speaker 1: last one of the afternoon Sincecinnati at Oakland Cincinnati, your
Speaker 1: only winless team in football. Oh and no, oh my god,
Speaker 1: the terrible too. Yeah yeah, and I and I've said
Speaker 1: it for weeks. Um, Zack Taylor the the most bewildered
Speaker 1: looking guy on any sideline ever, the oh and nine
Speaker 1: Oakland's five and four. My goodness, has Oakland just exceeded expectations?
Speaker 1: And that's the understatement of all time. Uh. Leventh in
Speaker 1: a row, by the way, leventh loss in a row
Speaker 1: for Cincinnati if you extended back into the last season,
Speaker 1: Ryan Finley sixteen of thirty four, one sixty seven yesterday
Speaker 1: and there forty nine to seventeen excuse me, thirteen loss
Speaker 1: yesterday to the Ravens. One touchdown, pass, one pick, sack twice,
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon thirty carries for a hundred fourteen yards Oakland.
Speaker 1: If you recall from back on Thursday night, which we
Speaker 1: didn't really get to talk about. I wasn't here on
Speaker 1: Friday because I was under under the knife. But God,
Speaker 1: our Philip Rivers and the Chargers frustrating. They are just
Speaker 1: murder murdered to back and Philip Rivers. That's that game
Speaker 1: to me is why he's not a Hall of Famer.
Speaker 1: To me, I think his stats may put him into
Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame, but that game is why he's
Speaker 1: not a Hall of Famer. But Oakland doing Oakland things.
Speaker 1: Twelve penalties in that game for ninety seven yards, but
Speaker 1: they were plus three in turnovers against the Chargers. That's
Speaker 1: why they won that football game. Ultimately, great drives of
Speaker 1: the Raiders at the end of both a half and
Speaker 1: the game to win for betters on both the half
Speaker 1: and the game um Oakland minus ten. Wow, it's gotta
Speaker 1: be that, right, It's gotta be double digits. I'll say ten. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a ten and ten and a half. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: use the ten and a half. I mean, here's one
Speaker 1: big jo You failed to mention Joe Mixing fourteen yards
Speaker 1: thirty carries. Yea, they were losing from the beginning. They
Speaker 1: gave this kind of ball thirty times. Yeah, you gotta
Speaker 1: be kidding me. It's a great point, guy. I mean,
Speaker 1: you're supposed to try to get back into the game
Speaker 1: at some point. I know that's highly see it radical.
Speaker 1: I mean they blasted from early on in the game.
Speaker 1: You give this guy thirty carries? Where is Zach Taylor?
Speaker 1: How could he? I mean, he'll keep his job just
Speaker 1: because it's the own family and owns them, and they're
Speaker 1: certainly one of the cheapest owners in the NFL, and
Speaker 1: they don't want to be paying some guy that they
Speaker 1: probably signed with three or five in the contract who's
Speaker 1: not going to be there anymore. But he is totally clueless.
Speaker 1: And uh, you know, talking about teams that have ruling quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: I'm not saying Andy Dalton would have been Peyton Manning
Speaker 1: but you people put him in the right situation, he
Speaker 1: would have been a much better quarterback than what his
Speaker 1: career has been. And uh, they just have so many
Speaker 1: problems on that team. And and I've been on him yesterday,
Speaker 1: so I guess they have a little bit of resentment
Speaker 1: when I say bet on him. I'm in a couple
Speaker 1: of contests and I had them, and I think all
Speaker 1: three contests and I'm in, Uh, they just were awful
Speaker 1: and like from right in the beginning, like Joe Bixy
Speaker 1: had thirty carry, I think right like thirty carry, when
Speaker 1: you're you're getting blasted from early in the game, it's
Speaker 1: just ridiculous. Um, So I'm goody ten and a half.
Speaker 1: And it's one of those that, uh, you know, you know,
Speaker 1: one of the old things I loved and bettings. Don't
Speaker 1: beat a dead horse and plash. Sure, I don't feel
Speaker 1: like beating the dead horse of the Cincinnati Bengals, But
Speaker 1: this might be a little too high. Oakland coming off
Speaker 1: a very impressive win, and we talked about Mike Tomlin
Speaker 1: being coach of the Year. I think what Jon Gruden's
Speaker 1: got to be up there too. He's really done a
Speaker 1: terrific job. I knocked Derek Carr quite a bit, you know,
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago. Since then, he's actually played some
Speaker 1: pretty darned good football and they're kind of coming together.
Speaker 1: And I don't know how much is Derek Carr, how
Speaker 1: much is maybe Gruten coaching them up. But Gruden has
Speaker 1: done a very very good job with this team. So
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open ten and a half. It's probably a
Speaker 1: little too high, but I'll be darned if I'm gonna
Speaker 1: be on Cincinnati again this week. I just can't take
Speaker 1: it anymore. I just can't take it anymore. Do the
Speaker 1: Bengals draft Jeff bringing this, Do the Bengals draft Joe
Speaker 1: Burrow number one? If they end up with the first
Speaker 1: pig has to be I guess it's got to be again.
Speaker 1: We were talking about it before with with two against Burrow.
Speaker 1: It's very easy to look as great as two has
Speaker 1: looked when receivers are running wide open by thirty yards.
Speaker 1: By the way, you assumed that it was Joe Burrow
Speaker 1: versus two way, it's not even two is not even
Speaker 1: close to me to be the number one pick in
Speaker 1: the draft. To me, it's Joe Burrow versus Chase Young.
Speaker 1: Have to take the quarterback. I mean Finely. Finely's almost
Speaker 1: in as much over his head as as Taylor as
Speaker 1: in the NFL level. Chase Young, Chase Young, Welcome to
Speaker 1: the Nation's capital. That's what I'm That's what that's what
Speaker 1: I'm doing for here. Yeah. But you know, Joe Burrow,
Speaker 1: somebody posted his hunt Twitter. There was a picture of
Speaker 1: Burrow looking like just kind of despondent. Must have just
Speaker 1: been a moment or something. Here's the Joe Burrow face
Speaker 1: realizing he was going to be drafted by the Cincinnati
Speaker 1: bank rolls. Yeah. Yeah, I hate to see them ruling
Speaker 1: this kid. I said to Lombardi weeks ago, though, because
Speaker 1: we're always talking about like the drafts and how none
Speaker 1: of us know anything. Just think, even on the collegiate level,
Speaker 1: right before we even get to the draft, we're talking
Speaker 1: about does Dan Mullen did he not see the Trask
Speaker 1: was better than Filippe Franks in practice? Like go or
Speaker 1: you were tending practices, you didn't know that? Why are
Speaker 1: we to think that Burrow wasn't better than Dwayne Haskins
Speaker 1: all along? Why are we to think that Fields wasn't
Speaker 1: the best option to George all along? Like these guys
Speaker 1: are in the practices. You can't even tell that. They
Speaker 1: can't even tell you who the best quarterback is. Um,
Speaker 1: but Joe burrow Man to say he was the best
Speaker 1: player on the field on Saturday is captain obvious of
Speaker 1: all obvious. He was just a pro among amateurs, uh,
Speaker 1: in that football game. So uh yeah, since Innati Bengals
Speaker 1: at least right now, Uh, that's who would have the
Speaker 1: first pick and the Skins would have the number two
Speaker 1: pick in the draft. We'll come back, We'll do the
Speaker 1: primetime games. And remember with the NFL season now more
Speaker 1: than halfway through, uh, we gotta really all covered visas,
Speaker 1: all access subscription special deal to mark the occasion. Dollars
Speaker 1: get you everything we do from now through the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: That means you get uh fifteen issues. I'll say it's
Speaker 1: fourteen issues now. Point Spread Weekly are digital magazine that's
Speaker 1: made to make you a better handicap or not just
Speaker 1: today before months to come. Uh. You find nearly every
Speaker 1: sport you can bet on in Point in Spread Weekly,
Speaker 1: not just football. You also get our four page college
Speaker 1: basketball betting guide out this week where else last week
Speaker 1: I should say that it was out plus the recently
Speaker 1: released NBA Guide in the College Football Betting Guide, which
Speaker 1: will be out in December, video stream plus replaces of
Speaker 1: all visnce programming and a new benefit and after do
Speaker 1: an email summarizing the plays from hosting guests throughout the day.
Speaker 1: All of that for just but if you're not sure yet,
Speaker 1: there's even an option for a free trial just at
Speaker 1: a Visa dot com s Last Subscribe for details. That's
Speaker 1: Visa dot com S Last Subscribe. Because after all, like
Speaker 1: Brent likes to say, cashing tickets is what it's all about.
Speaker 1: So again, head to Visa dot com S Last Subscribe
Speaker 1: for everything you need to know for that special deal,
Speaker 1: we'll come back. We'll do the primetime game Sunday night,
Speaker 1: Monday night Week eleven guessing lines right here on a
Speaker 1: numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a Numbers game
Speaker 1: with Jill Alexander. I want to know what the most
Speaker 1: harrowing part of my achilles surgery was. On Friday, Jeff,
Speaker 1: my my brother, kind enough to take time off work
Speaker 1: and come here to uh to uh be with me
Speaker 1: during the surgery. I of course took off work to
Speaker 1: schedule the surgery. It's scheduled for the for the surgeon himself. Um,
Speaker 1: everything's going and everything all right. I change in the
Speaker 1: clothes and my gown, get the I V and me
Speaker 1: it's all ready to go. And then they look at
Speaker 1: me and they go, ah, there's been a hold up.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. What. Yeah, there's a little problem maybe with
Speaker 1: the insurance. I'm sorry, I'm sorry. What is that? Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's someone who doesn't like want to approve it. I'm like,
Speaker 1: what the surgeon comes by, it's like, yeah, so there's
Speaker 1: some dude who's got like a quota of getting rid
Speaker 1: of surgeries off his book, who's like holding up everybody's life.
Speaker 1: Let me ask you a question. Everybody's rearrange their life.
Speaker 1: If they tell us, I said, what's the worst they
Speaker 1: could happen here, They're like, oh, we could cancel the case.
Speaker 1: Oh when I walk out of here with one leg
Speaker 1: attached to one foot, that's it. That's how that works. Haroin.
Speaker 1: That was the worst part of the whole day. What
Speaker 1: a system. We'll point that out. I had to deal
Speaker 1: with them mentally. Let's see the primetime games. This has
Speaker 1: been a public service announcedent. Let's do the prime time games. Chrissie,
Speaker 1: what's Sunday Night. Don't get me started or night. Sure,
Speaker 1: I've been very fortunate and will dropping at that. Did
Speaker 1: you imagine God? Yeah, twined my wife with her brain
Speaker 1: tour and me with mine MDS. I've been very fortunate. Yes,
Speaker 1: not everybody is quite so fortunate. I was gonna say,
Speaker 1: my my problem is not a problem. When everybody you know,
Speaker 1: you know here yours, It puts it all in perspective,
Speaker 1: that's for sure. Well, I got a great story. I
Speaker 1: don't want to tell on the here, but I mean
Speaker 1: i'd tell you privately about someone who did not have insurance.
Speaker 1: Pretty pretty bad story. Yeah, okay, Uh, Chicago Bears at
Speaker 1: the l A Ramps. That's Sunday Sunday Night team. Well,
Speaker 1: lucky for Jared Goff, it's actually in l A because
Speaker 1: this guy wilt in clement weather. And when I say
Speaker 1: in clement, I mean it gonna gets below forty. We
Speaker 1: used have a joke in d C where I grew
Speaker 1: up when like we we didn't handle snowwell and so
Speaker 1: like when the temperature got below forty degrees, like the
Speaker 1: school superintendents were like, for God's sakes, get those kids
Speaker 1: out of school. Like there was some imminent danger. That's
Speaker 1: Jerry Golf. He's that school superintendent. Uh. Yesterday, the Bears
Speaker 1: beat the lines. As we mentioned Mr Rbiskie sixteene for
Speaker 1: one seventy three, three touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked
Speaker 1: five times. But the Bears on offense two of twelve
Speaker 1: on third downs, grand total of two d twenty six
Speaker 1: yards of offense. They do snap their four game losing streak.
Speaker 1: By the way, they were so happy with their win.
Speaker 1: Matt Naggy. This is a quote from him after the
Speaker 1: game talking about his players. Quote, they ended up doing
Speaker 1: some one on one dancing, which is pretty neat. Unquote,
Speaker 1: that's awesome. Rams loose to the Steelers. As we pointed out,
Speaker 1: Jared Goffty one to forty three, no touchdown passes, two picks,
Speaker 1: He was sacked four times. The lone Rams touchdown on
Speaker 1: the twenty six yards scoop and score from Dante Fowler
Speaker 1: on the second snap of the game. The Rams were
Speaker 1: one of fourteen on third downs yesterday. Let me repeat that,
Speaker 1: one of fourteen on third downs. Oh for two on four.
Speaker 1: They had four turnovers minus two turnover differential, ten benalties
Speaker 1: for ninety five yards. If it weren't for Aaron Donald,
Speaker 1: it might have been worse. He was grace finished. He
Speaker 1: got a safety, five tackles, half a sack, two tackles
Speaker 1: for a loss. Um Cooper Cup held without a catch
Speaker 1: for just the second time in his three year career.
Speaker 1: And Todd Gurley man Chrissy, that dude has no burst anymore.
Speaker 1: Seventy three yards on twelve carries. Uh, he was not
Speaker 1: involved with any regularity, sat out the first two series
Speaker 1: of the fourth quarter. He's got a huge contract, I said,
Speaker 1: of course, made people's heads want to explode. I said
Speaker 1: to Lombardi, I'm on record, they should have made Jared
Speaker 1: Goff the first guy only on a rookie deal. That
Speaker 1: then they then just recycled into some other rookie deal,
Speaker 1: because you can't win Super Bowls unless you got a
Speaker 1: Hall of Famer or guy over performing on a rookie deal.
Speaker 1: But they gave him a hundred thirty four million guaranteed.
Speaker 1: So they got these two massive contracts. I don't know
Speaker 1: what this means for the Rams. There five and four.
Speaker 1: The Bears are four and five, huge game for playoff,
Speaker 1: staying in the playoff picture. I'll say the Rams by
Speaker 1: six at home. I like your number way better at
Speaker 1: six and half. I evedn't see some sevens. He's going
Speaker 1: to be high. If anything, Wow, she's I'll tell you
Speaker 1: this is like the mismanagement of your quarterback Bowl of
Speaker 1: signing anyway. Uh, you know, Chicago of course traded up
Speaker 1: to get Mitchell Trabisky. I'm looking at the numbers yesterday.
Speaker 1: Numbers for Travisky weren't that bad. I watched a little
Speaker 1: bit of that game that he was awful. I man,
Speaker 1: I don't know what to say. And then I'm looking
Speaker 1: at his qbowa sixty four point seven, which is pretty good.
Speaker 1: He was terrible. I'm sorry. I mean there are their offense,
Speaker 1: particularly the first half was just terrible, and they wound up,
Speaker 1: you know, making Hay kind of the second half a
Speaker 1: little bit, and and like I said, they kind of
Speaker 1: came around. They won the game, covered the number. Uh,
Speaker 1: and golf was just awful in his own right. And
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I was a little slow to
Speaker 1: come around on just how bad golf is. But uh,
Speaker 1: you know, they dedicated a hundred some million arsk I
Speaker 1: and uh cheese, oh man, this, you know, I just
Speaker 1: think this number is too high. I got to see
Speaker 1: this final being like thirteen ten something like that, just
Speaker 1: a terrible Sunday night game. But in that case you
Speaker 1: probably got to take the dog um. As bad as
Speaker 1: the Bears have been, you know, the Rams haven't been
Speaker 1: any better. So you know, I'm gonna open six and
Speaker 1: a half just because I set them sevens around. But
Speaker 1: I like six and a half certainly way better than
Speaker 1: the seven. But I like your number at six, and
Speaker 1: even that it might be a little bit too high.
Speaker 1: It's uh this this mark me down here. I like
Speaker 1: the Bears in this flor Let's do money that real quick.
Speaker 1: Kansas City at the Chargers, And this one is an
Speaker 1: International Series game Jeff at s Teca in Mexico City,
Speaker 1: assuming they can get the field right, because remember this
Speaker 1: was the Chiefs Rams game last year that was supposed
Speaker 1: to take place in Mexico City that the field wasn't
Speaker 1: ready for and so they had to uh move its
Speaker 1: date side. So this one is scheduled for Mexico City,
Speaker 1: Chiefs at at Chargers. The Chiefs, as we mentioned, loose
Speaker 1: to the Titans yesterday. Look, the Chiefs could have covered
Speaker 1: this and this ended up being around a six or
Speaker 1: five point spread. Uh Chiefs could have covered it, but
Speaker 1: it was not to be. Ryan Tannehill throwing a twenty
Speaker 1: three yard touchdown to Adam Humphrey's with twenty three seconds left,
Speaker 1: Joshua Kaloo blocking a last second field goal attempt to
Speaker 1: beat the Chiefs. The Titans did thirty thirty two to
Speaker 1: spoil Patrick mahomes return. Um. Titans only had a chance
Speaker 1: after a bad snap by the Chiefs on Harrison Butler's
Speaker 1: fifth field goal attempt of the day. Remember, the Chiefs
Speaker 1: were up trying to go up eight points um when
Speaker 1: there was a blame at least any Red blamed communication
Speaker 1: for the snap taking holder Dustin cuil quit by surprise,
Speaker 1: and then he ended up throwing the ball away in desperation,
Speaker 1: got intentional grounding call that set the Titans up at
Speaker 1: their own thirty nine and the rest is history. So
Speaker 1: it shows you plinko in the NFL. Uh tennessee now
Speaker 1: eleven and oh straight up under rabel by the way,
Speaker 1: when tighter leading at the half um, but the Chiefs look.
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes was great right, four forty six yards passing
Speaker 1: three touchdowns. Note pics Tyreek was grade eleven for one
Speaker 1: fifty seven and a touchdown. They ran seventy eight plays.
Speaker 1: The Chiefs did five yards. But their defense is drac
Speaker 1: and the Chargers that I just mentioned, I can't trust
Speaker 1: them at all. I'll say the Chiefs minus three on
Speaker 1: the neutral site, you're a little low. I see three
Speaker 1: and a half and four and many opened three and
Speaker 1: a half. I didn't see one. Four and a half
Speaker 1: and it gets too high. Um, I like to I
Speaker 1: think three and a halfs Okay. Mostly, I don't know
Speaker 1: what to think because the Chargers just do chargery thing. Yes,
Speaker 1: the blow games, but they could cover as a dog
Speaker 1: for sure. In Kansas City, by the way, the Chargers
Speaker 1: Gordon had a hundred yards on the ground first first
Speaker 1: really good game of the year. And Kansas City what
Speaker 1: did my headline knows? Oh yeah, Henry had twenty three
Speaker 1: carriages for a yard account. You know that's uh, I mean,
Speaker 1: that's some pretty bad defense on the part of Kansas City. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Chris again, let me jump in, let's take let's take
Speaker 1: a break, and let's recap them all. Because I know
Speaker 1: you you have your favorites. I'm struggling to come up
Speaker 1: with mine, but I'll come up with him next. We'll
Speaker 1: recap him next right here on the numbers game guessing
Speaker 1: lines at Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game with
Speaker 1: Jill Alexander. Here's his tweet about Chiefs, by the way,
Speaker 1: who are playing on Monday night against the Chargers in
Speaker 1: Mexico City. Um, a little testament to Andy Reid here
Speaker 1: uh from Ronnie Jazz A year early. The Kansas City
Speaker 1: Chiefs have lost by seven points or less in their
Speaker 1: last thirteen losses, including the playoffs, longest streak longest such
Speaker 1: streak in NFL history lost by seven points or less
Speaker 1: in their last thirteen losses. Here's what I like, Chrissie,
Speaker 1: after I so rudely interrupted you there. I like the
Speaker 1: Dolphins again. I like the Chiefs giving three. Um, what
Speaker 1: are you opening that one at three? Is it three
Speaker 1: and a half? We're Chiefs three three? And I like
Speaker 1: them because I think they should have covered yesterday. And
Speaker 1: I like Minnesota. I think tends to light. What do
Speaker 1: you like? Real quick? I like Dolphins, Ravens, Eagles, and Bears.
Speaker 1: You really like the Bears. I know that was one
Speaker 1: of your favorite Dolphins, Ravens, Eagles, Bears for Chrissie. Chris,
Speaker 1: thank you again, love you for it. I hope you're
Speaker 1: feeling better. You too than you. I'm fine, I'll find
Speaker 1: I'll be all right. The drugs are wonderful. Chris Andrews,
Speaker 1: Lades gentlemen. Follow me on Twitter again at Andrews Sports.
Speaker 1: Follow me at Beating the Book.