1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 3 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 2: top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors 4 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 2: all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program, we 5 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,119 Speaker 2: look to some key jobs data in the US and 6 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 2: how they may affect FED policy moving forward. I'm Nathan 7 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 2: Hager in Washington. 8 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 3: I'm Caroline Hegger in London. Where we're asking if this 9 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 3: is Wimbledon tournament, can serve up an ace? 10 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:34,199 Speaker 4: I'm Doug Chrisner looking at the balance of growth and 11 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 4: inflation for Vietnam's economy. 12 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:42,200 Speaker 1: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 13 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,920 Speaker 1: eleven three YEO New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 14 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:51,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg ninety two nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Syrias, 15 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 1: XM one twenty one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio, 16 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 1: dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. 17 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,319 Speaker 2: Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's 18 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 2: program with some key economic data in the US. On Thursday, 19 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 2: we get non farm payroll numbers from the month of 20 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:14,400 Speaker 2: June at eight thirty am Wall Street Time. The report 21 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 2: is coming a day earlier than usual due to the 22 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 2: Independence Day observance. Here for a look ahead to the 23 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 2: numbers is Edward Harrison, Bloomberg, senior strategist and author of 24 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 2: the Everything Risk newsletter. Good to have you with us 25 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 2: ahead of jobs Thursday, ed it seems like we've been 26 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 2: talking for so long about a low higher, low fire 27 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 2: labor market. Do you see that shifting ahead of what's 28 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 2: to come this week? 29 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 5: Hi, Nathan, I think yes, I do see that shifting, 30 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 5: this low fire, low higher market that we've seen. I 31 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 5: think last month's number broke that streak. We got a 32 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 5: one hundred and seventy two thousand jobs added to non 33 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 5: form payrolls. We also had upward revisions to the prior 34 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 5: month to the point where the three month average was 35 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 5: even higher at one hundred and eighty eight thousand. So 36 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 5: we're looking at almost two hundred thousand jobs per month 37 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 5: being added to non farm payrolls over the last three months. 38 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 2: So do you see that trajectory continuing? I mean, two 39 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:18,359 Speaker 2: hundred thousand on average sounds like more of a steady 40 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 2: labor environment than we've seen lately. 41 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 5: It definitely does seem that way now, bloom the average 42 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 5: economist in Bloomberg Consents to survey says around one hundred 43 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 5: and thirty five added. But even if you have one 44 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 5: thirty five, that's you know, fifty thousand lower than the 45 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 5: average that we had before. You're really still looking if 46 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 5: we get that number at around one hundred and fifty 47 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 5: one hundred and sixty thousand jobs per month for the 48 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 5: last three months, and that's very good, and the unemployment 49 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:53,639 Speaker 5: rate would be at a four point three percent. What 50 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 5: that says is we do have an improvement in the 51 00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 5: labor market in the US. 52 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 2: What do you see pinning that improvement when you know 53 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 2: so many economists leading into these non farm payrolls reports 54 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 2: month in and month out of sort of been surprised 55 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 2: by the resilience in the labor market. 56 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 5: Well, you know, I think that the resilience in personal 57 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 5: income and spending has been a big part of that. 58 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 5: If you looked at the numbers that came in last week, 59 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 5: we saw that personal spending was up zero point seven 60 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:31,079 Speaker 5: percent month on month, that was above expectations. Personal income 61 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 5: was also up zero point seven percent above expectations. Of course, 62 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 5: that brings inflation with it because the headline PCE Price 63 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 5: Index increased by four point one percent, you know, over 64 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 5: four percent. That's like double the fed's target in the 65 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 5: year to May. But irrespective, you know, you've got income 66 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 5: and spending underpinning the ability for jobs to contain. 67 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 2: Do you see wages keeping up with the pressures that 68 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 2: we continue to see in prices like that FED Preferred 69 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 2: inflation gage that you just mentioned. 70 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that the closer that we get to 71 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 5: full employment, the more chance that you're going to see 72 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:24,039 Speaker 5: wages increasing. The number that we saw in the last month, 73 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 5: that is in May survey was three point four percent 74 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 5: for average hourly earnings year and year. Economists that are 75 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:33,840 Speaker 5: expecting three point five percent, So they're expecting that to 76 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:38,719 Speaker 5: go up, and that's going to give people the wherewithal 77 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:43,159 Speaker 5: to a certain degree to deal with the inflation that 78 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 5: we've seen over the last year. 79 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 2: And you know, with all those factors in place, it 80 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 2: sounds as though the bias that we heard from FED 81 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 2: Chair Kevin Walsh earlier this month toward reigning in inflation 82 00:04:56,839 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 2: might be justified. Here, what's your expectation when it comes 83 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 2: to the FED potentially trying to rein in some of 84 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,840 Speaker 2: these increases that we're talking about with a hike. 85 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that the FED is going to hike 86 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 5: this year. The market has sort of backed off what 87 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 5: it's thinking in terms of hikes. We have the market 88 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 5: expecting at least one hike this year, not two hikes. 89 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 5: The first date in which they expect to hike is 90 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 5: in October, so that's three FED meetings from now. We 91 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 5: have July, September, and October. I would say that the 92 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 5: likelihood that they do hike, given what we've seen in 93 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 5: the inflation picture, is sooner than the market expects. And 94 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 5: depending upon how this job's number comes out, we could 95 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 5: see then you know, jobs doing very well, inflation being high, 96 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 5: especially core inflation, and those two leading the market to 97 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 5: start pricing in an earlier rate hiking, potentially two hikes 98 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 5: in twenty twenty six. 99 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 2: Really appreciate this and again thanks for coming on with 100 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:10,280 Speaker 2: us ahead of Jobs Thursday. That's Edward Harrison, Bloomberg Senior 101 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 2: strategist and author of the Everything Risk newsletter. Let's take 102 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 2: a look now at some stocks making news in the 103 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:18,599 Speaker 2: week ahead. I'm Nathan Hager, joined by Christy to Kino, 104 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,479 Speaker 2: Managing editor for Bloomberg Markets Live on a week where 105 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 2: we're going to hear from a few more companies reporting 106 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 2: earnings as we wind down the season. Christine a few 107 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: household names this week, including Nike on Tuesday. Our investors 108 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 2: finally going to hear the turnaround is swishing upward for 109 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 2: a change. 110 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:38,919 Speaker 6: I see what you did there, Nathan, And yes, I 111 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 6: know that is definitely the hope. Very interesting though, because 112 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 6: Dan has a leadership change shortly before the earnings results, 113 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 6: which are due on the thirtieth of June. So apparently 114 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 6: David Denton will take over CFO in August. And interestingly, 115 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 6: he is not an insider. He hasn't been a career 116 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 6: employee at Nike. He's actually moving from Pfizer and has 117 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 6: done similar stints at Low's and CBS as well. So 118 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 6: that's quite interesting bringing in an outsider rather than someone 119 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 6: who's familiar with the business and familiar with the turnaround plan. 120 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 2: So obviously a pretty big change from bringing in a 121 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 2: former insider to be the CEO. So what kind of 122 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 2: fresh blood of fresh look at the company could we 123 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 2: expect once they report earnings this week? 124 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean that is the big question, isn't it, Nathan. 125 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 6: That's something that investors and analysts will definitely. Note I 126 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 6: mean City Group analysts noting that it is quite surprising 127 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 6: that they're doing this just ahead of those fourth quarter results, 128 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 6: especially because the company is still under immense pressure to 129 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 6: really show the results of this turnaround plan. The stock 130 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 6: price is still hovering at around the lowest since twenty fourteen, 131 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 6: and investor confidence is a little bit still at the lows. 132 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 6: But you know, maybe a fresh blood might be just 133 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 6: what the company needs for a bit of a turnaround here. 134 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 6: But we'll find out more when they give us the 135 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 6: details next week. 136 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 2: Absolutely, Also on Tuesday, we're going to get results from 137 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 2: Constellation Brands after the bell. It's been a tough time 138 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 2: for the beer and wine business. Are we gonna be 139 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 2: able to raise a glass to these results? 140 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 6: I mean, based on the assessment from Jeffrey's analysts, there's 141 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:21,680 Speaker 6: still a lot of caution on that front, Nathan, I mean, 142 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 6: they're worried about just the overall trend of declining alcohol 143 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 6: consumption trends in the US because you know, the younger 144 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 6: generation don't drink as much anymore. I don't know what's 145 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 6: up with that, but that's definitely something that is a 146 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 6: bit of a negative for Constellation brands Jeffries in particular, 147 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 6: still expecting the company to reiterate those organic sales around 148 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 6: minus one percent to plus one percent. But one silver 149 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 6: lining is they do have strong ads spending for the 150 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 6: World Cup, but then that also cuts into their earnings margins, 151 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 6: So we'll see if that pays off when we get 152 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 6: those results. Might be a little bit early, but you know, 153 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 6: a little bit of positive momentum hint, hurt the brand 154 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:01,959 Speaker 6: at this moment. 155 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, so a lot of crosswinds. They're not just from 156 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 2: consumer changing habits and those advertising spending potential headwinds there, 157 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 2: but I mean the entire beverage industry has been dealing 158 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 2: with rising commodity costs from what's been happening in the 159 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:20,679 Speaker 2: Middle East as well. I mean that could have an 160 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 2: impact on the results too, couldn't it. 161 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 6: Yeah, absolutely, I mean margins definitely something to wash for 162 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,319 Speaker 6: Constellation brands. I mean, some of the costs for raw 163 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 6: materials aluminum cans, for instance, have gotten a lot more 164 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 6: expensive over the last few months. Of course, we know 165 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 6: that flows through the strait of hormones finally starting to flow. 166 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 6: We've been getting reports on that as well as US 167 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 6: and Iran make headway towards a striking a longer term deal. 168 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:49,320 Speaker 6: But yeah, it takes a little bit of a time, 169 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 6: doesn't it. I mean, we've definitely seen a lag in 170 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 6: some of those prices when it comes to kind of 171 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 6: coming back down for the recent high. So that's something 172 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 6: that Constellation brands will definitely have to answer for when 173 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 6: we hear from them next week. 174 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be interested to hear as well about how 175 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 2: they might be adapting to those changing consumer habits, because 176 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 2: it seems like there's been a lot more interest as 177 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 2: well in non alcoholic beer and wine, so we'll be 178 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 2: watching that too. On Wednesday, we're going to hear from 179 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 2: General Mills and correct me if I'm wrong, Christine, But 180 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 2: it seems like the last few months have been pretty 181 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 2: rough for name brands at the grocery aisle. Am I 182 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 2: remembering that, right? 183 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's absolutely right. 184 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 3: It has been a tough period. 185 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 6: But we are seeing, for instance, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst saying 186 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 6: that perhaps actually the worst of it might be over 187 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 6: for some of the national food brands like General Mills. 188 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 6: They're projecting that some of the sales for these brands 189 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 6: could climb about three percent to four percent this year. 190 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 6: I mean, of course, house brands have an advantage, especially 191 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 6: when it comes to costs for consumers. But I think 192 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:53,079 Speaker 6: there's a little bit of room now for some of 193 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 6: the brand names to gain back some of that ground. 194 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 6: And you know, another theme actually that could be going 195 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 6: well for General miss is the pet food business, because 196 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 6: we know that people love spending money on their pets. 197 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 2: Oh, and that. 198 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 6: Is something that could be a bright spot potentially. 199 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 2: Okay. I kind of wonder though whether a company like 200 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 2: General Mills and some of its competitors as well, might 201 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:20,080 Speaker 2: be weathering some of these issues around price by doing 202 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,319 Speaker 2: something that I've seen over the last few months, if 203 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 2: not years, packaging getting smaller. Is that something we could 204 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:29,080 Speaker 2: hear about on the call. 205 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, that's certainly one way to mitigate some 206 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:35,079 Speaker 6: of the costs, right that we've been talking about in 207 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:40,319 Speaker 6: relation to other companies. And certainly if you're spending less unpackaging, 208 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 6: especially given the current era of still high raw material prices, 209 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 6: that certainly helps for sure. And so yeah, maybe something 210 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:53,680 Speaker 6: that could at the margin help General Mills kind of 211 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 6: gain more solid footing here. But yeah, we'll hear from 212 00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 6: them on the first of July is when there are 213 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:00,440 Speaker 6: things I do. 214 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of big consumer names to look forward 215 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 2: to on the earnings front this week. Thanks for this, Christine, 216 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 2: really good to have you with us. That's Christina Kino, 217 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 2: Managing editor for Bloomberg Markets Live, and coming up on 218 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 2: Bloomberg day Break weekend, we will look ahead to this 219 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 2: year's Wimbledon tournament. I'm Nathan Hager, and this is Bloomberg. 220 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look ahead 221 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 2: at the top stories for investors in the coming week. 222 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. Later in the program, we'll 223 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 2: look to some key economic data coming up this week 224 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:45,439 Speaker 2: in Vietnam. But in the coming days, London's All England 225 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 2: Club once again becomes home to the biggest stars in 226 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,200 Speaker 2: tennis as they battle for one of the sport's most 227 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 2: prestigious titles. This year's edition of Wimbledon promises to be eventful. 228 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 2: Is one of the greatest ever living players makes her return, 229 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 2: and ticket resale prices sore for more. Let's go to 230 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:07,319 Speaker 2: London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak. You're a banker, Caroline Hepger, Nathan. 231 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:11,199 Speaker 3: Wimbledon is a British institution in years gone by. It's 232 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 3: featured classic battles between greats like Federer and Nadal, many 233 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 3: a royal spectator, and even carried the hopes of a 234 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 3: nation as British players have pursued glory on home turf. 235 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 3: This year is set to be no exception, with the 236 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 3: competition already making headlines. Seven time champions Serena Williams, considered 237 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 3: by many to be one of the greatest players of 238 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:36,440 Speaker 3: the Open era, will make her return to singles tennis 239 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 3: at Wimbledon after retiring in twenty twenty two. The forty 240 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 3: two year old received a controversial wildcard spot. How the 241 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 3: competition driving further interest in this year's event. Bloomberg's reporting, though, 242 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 3: has found that ticketing is more exclusive than ever. Debncher's, 243 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 3: a niche financial instrument that grants the hold of some 244 00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 3: of the best seats at Wimbledon, are now changing hands 245 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 3: for more more than half a million dollars. Swing prices 246 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 3: for fans is a phenomenon taking hold of much of 247 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,439 Speaker 3: the rest of the sporting world too. It's part of 248 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 3: the reason that investors are paying much more attention to 249 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:16,439 Speaker 3: the profits from sports. Dave Days is global cohead of 250 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 3: Sports franchise and investment banking at Goldman Sachs. He says 251 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:23,479 Speaker 3: growing interest in the sector is a big opportunity. 252 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 7: We're seeing a lot of interests across really three different 253 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 7: groups of three different groups of buyers, but you can 254 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 7: aggregate audience. Media rights are growing pretty dramatically given that 255 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 7: sense is something people want to be part of. And 256 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 7: so again it's back to this community pricing leverage your 257 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 7: ability to really grow and for the North American leagues 258 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 7: and the many leagues around the world, you do have 259 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 7: some level of governance in essence salary cap in place 260 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 7: where you have some level of control in terms of 261 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 7: the costs, but there are many, many different ways you 262 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 7: can grow from a revenue perspective. 263 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:06,080 Speaker 3: That was Dave Days from Goldman Sachs speaking to Boomberg. 264 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 3: Zisa Brahmewitz and Anne Marie Haudn joining us now for 265 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 3: more on what to expect from this year's Wimbledon and 266 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 3: the intricacies of ticket pricing is Boomberg's UK Business editor 267 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 3: Jamie Nimmo and our reporter Aishaitiallo. Welcome to both of you. 268 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 3: Thanks for your time. Jamie, I want to start with 269 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 3: you because this is quite a niche little business, isn't 270 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 3: it that Wimbledon has in terms of the tickets for 271 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 3: Center Court and Court number one at Wimbledon. Explain how 272 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 3: it works. What are these debenchers. 273 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 8: Yeah, well, most people will enter the ballot and pay 274 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 8: a few hundred quid and if they're lucky, they can 275 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 8: get tickets to center court Court one. If you're not 276 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 8: one of those people, you might queue up for hours 277 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 8: overnight in a tent or whatever, and then you might 278 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 8: get a ticket for the outside courts. If you're one 279 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 8: of the lucky few, there are these debenchers. There's about 280 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 8: two and a half thousand in center Court one and 281 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 8: a half thousand in Court one or thirteen hundred caught 282 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 8: one and then you base have the tickets next to 283 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 8: the Royal Box. You can access the VIP areas, the restaurants, 284 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 8: all the fancy bits that go on slightly exactly now 285 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 8: the catches. You have to pay a lot of money 286 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 8: to get these tickets. So the center court, the benchers 287 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 8: that start this year went on sale two years ago 288 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 8: at one hundred and sixteen grand, so you need a 289 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 8: bit of money to spend on these things. But then 290 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 8: you're guaranteed ticket for you know, fourteen days every year 291 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 8: for five years, right, so you know it's a pretty 292 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 8: pretty nice nice gig if you can get it. 293 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, and their class is transferable security to get some 294 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 3: kind of tax benefits in the UK as well, So yeah, 295 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 3: it is interesting. And you can sell the tickets as 296 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 3: well if you don't want to go on a certain 297 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:43,200 Speaker 3: number of days. 298 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 8: That's the kind of quirky thing about these because you 299 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 8: can't sell any other Wimbledon tickets. If we bought a 300 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 8: ticket on the you know, via Wimbledon, you can't resell 301 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 8: that ticket, right, But these are the only tradeable tickets, 302 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 8: so you can make a load of money because the 303 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 8: demand from people from the US, India, China coming over 304 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 8: to visit London for the summer. They'll want to go 305 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 8: to one within and they'll pay thousands of pounds, so 306 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 8: you can make the money back on those days. You 307 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:09,879 Speaker 8: can go whenever you want. You could. It might be 308 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 8: that you just want to go to the men's and 309 00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 8: women's finals and the last weekend well for sure, and 310 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 8: sell all the other days and you can make you 311 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 8: more than your money back basically, which is fascinating. 312 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 3: I think, Yeah, that's really interesting. Isn't it. We'll get 313 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 3: into the kind of quirks and the traditions of wilmbledon 314 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 3: and so on in a moment. Eichha. You've been to 315 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 3: lots of the Grand Slams, not to s W nineteen, 316 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,239 Speaker 3: but it is quite different, isn't it the way that 317 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 3: all of the Grand Slams around the world operate in 318 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 3: terms of the tennis traditions and what you see in 319 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 3: terms of sports. 320 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 9: Wimbledon is the most prestigious Grand Slam of the four. 321 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:51,919 Speaker 9: If you ask many players, they'll tell you if they 322 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 9: could win one Slam, it's going to be Wimbledon. I 323 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 9: mean it's the first one. I begin in eighteen seventy seven. 324 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 9: You know, players are donned and all white. This was 325 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 9: from a tradition that started since it's beginning where they 326 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,479 Speaker 9: didn't want to see the sweat of players through their 327 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 9: clothing because it wasn't you know, proper. So there are 328 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 9: many kind of quirks of the tournament, including the all 329 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:20,920 Speaker 9: whites as well as the q As we mentioned briefly, 330 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,479 Speaker 9: you know, this is maybe one of the few sworting 331 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 9: events where you can line up and get tickets day 332 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 9: of which is which is pretty interesting and even on court, 333 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 9: I think you'll also notice that you'll see minimal advertising 334 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 9: as opposed to the other Grand Slams. This is for 335 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 9: the clean look that that Wimbledon likes to likes to have, 336 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 9: and that's just one of many. When you think about Wimbledon, 337 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 9: you also think about strawberries and cream and kind of 338 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 9: these interesting things that attendees get to experience, who are 339 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 9: also addressed to the Nines compared to other Grand Slam 340 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:56,600 Speaker 9: events as well. 341 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:58,919 Speaker 3: Yeah, and this see it could be really exciting with 342 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:03,440 Speaker 3: Serena back and whether she has a chance of winning. 343 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 3: I mean, who are the favorites this year? And for 344 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,679 Speaker 3: that global audience, you know that as Jamie was saying, 345 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 3: sees so much appeal in Wimbledon and for kind of 346 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 3: diehard tennis fans obviously this is a major annual event. 347 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 3: So who do you think are the favorites this year? 348 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 9: When you look at the men's side, you know, this 349 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 9: is another tournament this year that we're not going to 350 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 9: see Carlos Alkarez, the number two player in the world. 351 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:29,199 Speaker 9: I think the man to beat and like much of 352 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 9: the year, is going to be Onick Center, the number 353 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,119 Speaker 9: one player, even though he hasn't won a Grand Slam 354 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 9: this year, He's won pretty much everything else. He is 355 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,879 Speaker 9: the defending champion as well. I think, you know, you 356 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:44,199 Speaker 9: could also say that Novak Djokovic, this might be his 357 00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,679 Speaker 9: last good shot at number twenty five for him. I 358 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 9: think Jack Draper hometown hero. He's coming off of injury. 359 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 9: He has Andy Murray on his coaching team this upcoming Wimbledon. 360 00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:00,399 Speaker 9: He's playing good and I think he he's going to 361 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 9: have the backing of the British British crowd of course, 362 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 9: so I wouldn't count Jack Draper out as well. On 363 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 9: the women's side, I think it's going to be a 364 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 9: bit of a toss up. Last year we saw kind 365 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 9: of a random winner in Egos Friantek. I think it's 366 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 9: going to be a toss up on the women's side. 367 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 9: I would say it's going to be a random winner. 368 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 9: I think Arena Sabalenka, the number one player, has been 369 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 9: a little bit shaky. She lost in Berlin a few 370 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 9: weeks ago to Jessica Pagoula, so we'll see. It's going 371 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:28,640 Speaker 9: to be a toss up on the women's side. 372 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:32,680 Speaker 3: I show Serena is back playing at Wimbledon, why do 373 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 3: you think she's coming back at this point in her career? 374 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 3: What do you think she's going to serve off at Wimbledon. 375 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 9: It's going to be a challenge for Serena. You know, 376 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 9: she's coming back without much match play at forty four 377 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,679 Speaker 9: years old. It's going to be quite demanding physically to 378 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 9: play singles on the grass courts. We're going to see 379 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 9: she is one of the greatest competitors, if not the 380 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 9: greatest competitor of all time. But if I was a 381 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,640 Speaker 9: betting woman, I wouldn't put my money on her. 382 00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 10: To say that. 383 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 3: Okay, so those are all the runners riders then, and 384 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 3: what maybe possible on court? I mean also we're going 385 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 3: through a heat wave in the UK, so if that 386 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 3: continues is going to be quite interesting and maybe shake 387 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 3: things up. Certainly presents some difficulties for the grass courts, 388 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 3: of course, as sent to Court Jamie. The business side 389 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:19,080 Speaker 3: of this, I mean, why are we seeing so much 390 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,920 Speaker 3: demand though for these debenches tickets? I mean they've existed 391 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,439 Speaker 3: for ages. The structure of them has kind of changed 392 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:28,080 Speaker 3: over time, hasn't it the rights that it confers on people? 393 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 3: But you've written a really interesting story about the price 394 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 3: of these particular tickets in the sporting world has just 395 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 3: gone through the roof. It's astronomic. Why what is driving 396 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 3: that demand? 397 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 8: Yeah, right, you know when I mentioned earlier they went 398 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 8: on sale for one hundred and sixteen thousand pounds. That 399 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 8: sounds a lot. But in the two years since, you know, 400 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 8: recent trading prices are up at nearly four hundred thousand 401 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,320 Speaker 8: for these So you're talking, you know, that's more than 402 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 8: you know made of in video stock in that time. 403 00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 8: You know, it's pretty incredible. The demand is part of 404 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 8: in line the ticket prices as well, like the demand 405 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 8: generally to attend is driving up ticket prices, which is 406 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 8: then driving up the debenture to the values. But but 407 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,880 Speaker 8: like you say, it's you know, it's it's interesting. It's 408 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 8: an interest from all around the world. You know, say, 409 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 8: if you're growing demand from India as well, which you 410 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 8: know that you're seeing. You know, younger people from India 411 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,439 Speaker 8: travel around the world, especially to places like London in 412 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 8: the summer. They might go to the cricket this summer 413 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 8: and then they might think what else can I go to? 414 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 8: And they might think, oh, I can spend some money 415 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 8: and go to Wimbledon as well and other popular sport there. 416 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,679 Speaker 8: US is really driving that demand. As I mentioned, still 417 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 8: they're the they're the main buyers of these on the 418 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:41,159 Speaker 8: resale market and driving up the cost. But it's you know, 419 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:46,680 Speaker 8: sport generally, valuations arising, whether it's teams, franchises or ticket prices, 420 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 8: it's all it's all going up. 421 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,199 Speaker 3: Yeah, we've been talking about the World Cup and the 422 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 3: dynamic pricing there and all the controversies around that. I showed. 423 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 3: There's also been a lot of controversy recently about how 424 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,879 Speaker 3: much of a share of tournament winnings is actually paid 425 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:05,880 Speaker 3: out to the players, What has happened and how might 426 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 3: we see things actually play out at Wimbledon this year. 427 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 9: So over the last couple of years, there's been constant 428 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 9: discussions amongst between players and the four Grand Slams about 429 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:23,440 Speaker 9: revenue share. The players are demanding a higher revenue share 430 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,919 Speaker 9: coming from the tournaments. They're seeking about twenty two percent 431 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:32,120 Speaker 9: by twenty thirty. Currently each Grand Slam has different percentages 432 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,919 Speaker 9: I think, ranging from about twelve to sixteen percent, and 433 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 9: so they're arguing that compared to other sports, they're receiving 434 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:45,160 Speaker 9: less of the revenue from these major tournaments as Jamie's 435 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 9: been saying, they've only been getting you know, they've only 436 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,200 Speaker 9: been receiving more and more money, and so players want 437 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 9: a little bit more say and how much they're making. 438 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 9: They also want to they want a little bit more 439 00:23:55,800 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 9: say in how the scheduling is being implemented the season. 440 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,360 Speaker 9: Tennis is one of the longest sports when you look 441 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 9: at their season starts in January and things kind of 442 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 9: wrap up in November, so it's all year long, and 443 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:13,359 Speaker 9: they want to be they want to hire, they want 444 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 9: more of a voice in how the scheduling has been 445 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,440 Speaker 9: going on. And so these discussions which has been happening 446 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,119 Speaker 9: between the players and each each of the four Grand 447 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:26,679 Speaker 9: Slams separately, has been a lot of backdoor over the 448 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 9: last you know, eighteen months to twenty four months. 449 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 3: Great stuff, lovely to speak to both of you. Thank 450 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,920 Speaker 3: you so much for your time. That is big Bergs 451 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 3: Jamie Nimmo and Aishadiano talking about Wimbledon. Hope some of 452 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 3: you out there get to snapops and tickets for sw 453 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,680 Speaker 3: nineteen of course and all the tennis action. I'm Caroline 454 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 3: Hepga hit in London. You can catch us every weekday 455 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 3: morning here for a blue big day break you at beginning 456 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:52,640 Speaker 3: at six am in London. That's one Amma. 457 00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 2: We'll seek Nathan, Thanks Caroline, and coming up on Bloomberg 458 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 2: day Break weekend, we'll look ahead to some key readings 459 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 2: on growth and inflation or Vietnam's economy. I'm Nathan Hagar, 460 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:17,119 Speaker 2: and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our 461 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,879 Speaker 2: global look ahead, the top stories for investors in the 462 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,679 Speaker 2: coming week. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. This week we'll 463 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:26,119 Speaker 2: get some key readings on growth and inflation in Vietnam. 464 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 2: For a closer look, let's get to Doug Krisner, host 465 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:30,679 Speaker 2: of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. 466 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 4: Thanks Nathan. Vietnam is a key member of ASSION, the 467 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 4: Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and together these eleven countries 468 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 4: make up the world's fifth largest economy. Among the major players, 469 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:48,240 Speaker 4: we've got Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and of course Vietnam. Now 470 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,320 Speaker 4: on its own, Vietnam is one of the world's fastest 471 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,240 Speaker 4: growing economies. In the first five months of the year, 472 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 4: industrial production rose at an annual rate of nine point 473 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 4: one percent, and retails sales grew at eleven percent, and 474 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 4: I think it's fair to say those numbers would be 475 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 4: the envy of any jurisdiction. Now, in the week ahead, 476 00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 4: we'll get Vietnam's GDP figures along with the latest monthly 477 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,200 Speaker 4: reading on inflation, and for a closer look at the 478 00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 4: Vietnam growth story and what we are likely to see 479 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,439 Speaker 4: in the data in the week ahead, let's bring in 480 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 4: Bloomberg's Francesca Stevens. Francesca is our Vietnam Bureau chief, and 481 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 4: she is on the line from Hanoi. Thank you so 482 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,160 Speaker 4: much for being here. So I kind of laid out 483 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 4: some of the data points around the growth story. I'm 484 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:36,560 Speaker 4: curious as to how you believe the government is going 485 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,880 Speaker 4: to view these numbers and the degree to which it's 486 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:41,800 Speaker 4: trying to shape economic growth. 487 00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:48,280 Speaker 10: So we get the latest imprint next week, when the 488 00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,880 Speaker 10: big thing we're watching here is to see just how 489 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 10: far off the ten percent growth target Vietnam is at 490 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,719 Speaker 10: the moment. Last quarter it came into sunder eight percent. 491 00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 10: Anything around eight percent would still be great for Vietnam 492 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 10: because of the last few months when we've seen the 493 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:09,159 Speaker 10: Iran war having an impact across this region, with rising 494 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:14,280 Speaker 10: energy costs feeding into higher costs for pretty much everything, 495 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 10: So we're really watching out to see if the government 496 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:21,160 Speaker 10: here starts softening its language on the double digit target. 497 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 10: There hasn't been any sign of that yet, and in fact, 498 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,400 Speaker 10: in the last few months, we've just seen imports from 499 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:32,040 Speaker 10: China continuing to surge, as have exports to the US 500 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 10: in the latest In the most recent US data, actually 501 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 10: Vietnam posted the second largest deficit with the US, behind 502 00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:44,720 Speaker 10: Taiwan and ahead of Mexico and China. But as I said, 503 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 10: one of the bigger concerns here at the moment is inflation. 504 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,399 Speaker 10: It ticked up to over five percent in May, which 505 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 10: is over the government targeted at the moment, as that 506 00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:01,959 Speaker 10: surge in global energy prices trickle through. The government actually 507 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,840 Speaker 10: at the moment is looking at the average for this year, 508 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,640 Speaker 10: which is around four point three percent. So as far 509 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,880 Speaker 10: as it's concerned, I think there is a little bit 510 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,840 Speaker 10: of wiggle room. We are watching out to see if 511 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 10: we're going to see any adjustment to the key policy 512 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,800 Speaker 10: interest rates here. We haven't seen any adjustment since the 513 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:26,160 Speaker 10: summer of twenty twenty three, so it's been quite a while. 514 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,320 Speaker 10: But if the FED raises rates in the next few 515 00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,760 Speaker 10: months that might change things. But in the meantime, as 516 00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:33,879 Speaker 10: I say that, the government here is hammering hard on 517 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:39,400 Speaker 10: the growth story. We've got massive construction going on across Vietnam, 518 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 10: including here in Hanoi, where there's a big two point 519 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 10: five trillion plan to overhaul the city. There's construction everywhere, 520 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 10: and the government's really pushing hard on that growth story. 521 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:56,280 Speaker 4: So I think of manufacturing obviously when I think of 522 00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,600 Speaker 4: the Vietnamese economy. Also logistics talk to me a little 523 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,239 Speaker 4: bit about how the economy is undergoing some sort of 524 00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:07,959 Speaker 4: digital transformation, and also where green energy fits in as 525 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,040 Speaker 4: part of the growth story. 526 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,840 Speaker 10: So there is a lot of messaging here around the 527 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 10: green transition, and it is really important for Vietnam because 528 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 10: it's on the frontline of climate change where its long coastline. 529 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 10: We saw really intense storms last year, and that's only 530 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,840 Speaker 10: exacerbated the need for this push to green energy, and 531 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,160 Speaker 10: particularly after the last few months when obviously we've seen 532 00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 10: all the uncertainty because of what's been happening in the 533 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:40,520 Speaker 10: Middle East. So the government has been pushing hard to 534 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 10: improve the renewable energy space here, but there are a 535 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 10: lot of complexities around how the grid operates how EVI 536 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 10: and the state owned utility manages its relations with renewable 537 00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:01,640 Speaker 10: energy companies that want to come in, and there are 538 00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:06,120 Speaker 10: there are there are a few ongoing issues around historic 539 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,280 Speaker 10: feed in tariffs for energy companies. So there is a 540 00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 10: big push to improve the renewable energy sector here, and 541 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:19,000 Speaker 10: you know, solar power is obviously something that Vietnam could 542 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 10: be making the most of. In fact, some of the 543 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 10: industrial parks are now starting to install their own rooftop 544 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:29,760 Speaker 10: solar systems. There has been a push to get offshore 545 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:31,840 Speaker 10: wind up and running, but again there have been a 546 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 10: few challenges with that implementation. And also there's a there's 547 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:42,400 Speaker 10: been a big push to integrate more LNG into the 548 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:47,680 Speaker 10: energy mix, but Vietnam's coming from a slightly standing start, 549 00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,120 Speaker 10: I think when it comes to LNG. So there is 550 00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:53,640 Speaker 10: a lot of discussion about bringing more energy into the mix, 551 00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 10: but the infrastructure isn't there yet. So at this point 552 00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,680 Speaker 10: they're still at the implementation stage of trying to figure 553 00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 10: out how and where to build the necessary terminals, the 554 00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,959 Speaker 10: necessary infrastructure to get the L and G in. And 555 00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 10: then in addition to that, there is a proposal to 556 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 10: revive nuclear power. There's two nuclear power plants down in Nintwan, 557 00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:19,360 Speaker 10: which the government is trying to revive on a very 558 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,560 Speaker 10: quick timeline. There is Russian involvement in one of those 559 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 10: nuclear power projects, and South Korea has expressed an interest 560 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 10: in being involved in the second, but those are still 561 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,240 Speaker 10: a little way off when it comes to coming on stream, 562 00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:35,280 Speaker 10: and health painted contribute to the energy mix. 563 00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 4: So we know that the export economy is a very 564 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:42,280 Speaker 4: important driver of growth. We also know that tariffs have 565 00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 4: been a major instrument of trade policy from the Trump administration. 566 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 4: They were applied a while back on goods leaving Vietnam 567 00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,680 Speaker 4: for the US, and the reason this was done strategically 568 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,320 Speaker 4: was to try to get an upper hand in negotiating 569 00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,800 Speaker 4: a trade agreement. So there was some sort of deal 570 00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:04,280 Speaker 4: that was agreed to. And I'm curious as to get 571 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,680 Speaker 4: your take on where we stand right now in the 572 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:10,080 Speaker 4: story of US Vietnam trade. Where are we now. 573 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 10: It's been a really long journey with the trade deal 574 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,600 Speaker 10: and they're still at this stage, is still not a 575 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,840 Speaker 10: final trade agreement between the US and Vietnam. They came 576 00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 10: out with a framework last October, but since then we 577 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 10: haven't seen the final deal signed, and actually In the 578 00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:32,840 Speaker 10: last few weeks there's been more pressure from the US, 579 00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:37,080 Speaker 10: so Vietnam is now facing three separate Section three oh 580 00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 10: one investigations alleged excess manufacturing capacity, forced labor, and the 581 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 10: most recent was into IP violations. In fact, in the 582 00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:52,880 Speaker 10: most recent report, Vietnam was the only country named as 583 00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,960 Speaker 10: a priority foreign country, as a sign of just how 584 00:32:56,120 --> 00:33:01,160 Speaker 10: seriously the US is targeting Vietnam under these these various 585 00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:05,600 Speaker 10: different investigations. So is this going to force Vietnam back 586 00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 10: to the table to sign a trade deal soon? Quite possibly. 587 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 10: The deal got bogged down by discussions over what constituted transhipment, 588 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 10: which was one of the headline headline figures that came 589 00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:22,640 Speaker 10: out of the trade deal negotiations last year, with the 590 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:26,720 Speaker 10: US threatening a forty percent tariff on good steam to 591 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 10: be transhipped. But there were very but there were many 592 00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:33,200 Speaker 10: questions around how that would be defined and how you 593 00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:37,200 Speaker 10: would monitor it, etc. And as far as we understand, 594 00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,400 Speaker 10: that is still one of the issues that is holding 595 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:45,680 Speaker 10: things up, as well as the situation around intellectual property violations, 596 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:51,400 Speaker 10: which the US has been coming down hard on Vietnam 597 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:55,800 Speaker 10: on in recent weeks now, Vietnam has has been very 598 00:33:55,880 --> 00:34:00,520 Speaker 10: vocal about stepping up its campaigns against fake counterfeit goods, 599 00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:06,280 Speaker 10: shutting down piracy websites, etc. But at singstand at this moment, 600 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,560 Speaker 10: it doesn't seem like that's been enough to convince US 601 00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:14,880 Speaker 10: investigators that it's doing enough. And in the meantime, Vietnam 602 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:18,319 Speaker 10: is continuing to balance its relations with China. We're still 603 00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:22,640 Speaker 10: seeing a lot of Chinese involvement and investment in northern Vietnam. 604 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,880 Speaker 10: They're working on three different rail link rail links together 605 00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:31,440 Speaker 10: to connect northern Vietnam to southern China. And we're also 606 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,160 Speaker 10: waiting for an announcement at the moment about who will 607 00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:37,800 Speaker 10: win the contracts for a north south high high speed 608 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:42,960 Speaker 10: rail project, which again could be Chinese involvement. So as always, 609 00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:47,239 Speaker 10: Vietnam making sure to balance its relations with the two 610 00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,279 Speaker 10: big superpowers as carefully as ever. 611 00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,920 Speaker 4: For the investment community, I'm curious about the way in 612 00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:55,080 Speaker 4: which Vietnam should be viewed. For such a long time, 613 00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:58,680 Speaker 4: it was viewed as a frontier market, and I would 614 00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,799 Speaker 4: imagine that there are still a diversity of opinions in 615 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:06,320 Speaker 4: understanding the type of market that Vietnam represents in terms 616 00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:11,879 Speaker 4: of investment opportunities. Give me a sense of what we're 617 00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:14,880 Speaker 4: looking at in terms of scope and how Vietnam is 618 00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,080 Speaker 4: being viewed right now, and maybe a little bit of 619 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,280 Speaker 4: the diversity of opinion that's that's out there. 620 00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,360 Speaker 10: Look, I would say on the whole, there is a 621 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:28,840 Speaker 10: huge amount of optimism around the Vietnam market at the moment. 622 00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,399 Speaker 10: We've got the foot see Russell upgrade from from Tier 623 00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:36,680 Speaker 10: market to emerging market status that's going ahead in September, 624 00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,800 Speaker 10: but that's really seen as just one step on the 625 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:44,200 Speaker 10: much bigger path that Vietnam wants to take, which is 626 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:49,400 Speaker 10: getting upgraded by MSCI. There was a review last week 627 00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,759 Speaker 10: where there had been some hopes that Vietnam would be 628 00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:55,960 Speaker 10: placed on the watch list for the upgrade, but it 629 00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,520 Speaker 10: seems that it's too soon for MSCI. And there are 630 00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:03,880 Speaker 10: a few issues that they raised which are which you know, 631 00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,840 Speaker 10: reflect the broader concerns of the investment community, and that 632 00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:12,840 Speaker 10: is around low free float levels some firms. They also 633 00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:17,640 Speaker 10: raise continued limits on foreign ownership, which is really really 634 00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:19,840 Speaker 10: quite a big one for a lot of the investors 635 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:24,200 Speaker 10: that we speak to. It also highlighted concerns about investability, 636 00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:30,200 Speaker 10: transparency and price discovery concerns as well as the absence 637 00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:35,319 Speaker 10: of an offshore currency market and onshore constraints. So there's 638 00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:39,160 Speaker 10: quite a few issues there that Vietnam knows it needs 639 00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,000 Speaker 10: to tackle if it wants to get onto that watch 640 00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:47,080 Speaker 10: list for MSCI. But having said that, it is also 641 00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:50,759 Speaker 10: taking some of the other reforms that have previously been 642 00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:55,120 Speaker 10: highlighted as necessary. So, for example, next year we're due 643 00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:58,480 Speaker 10: to see the establishment of a central counterparty clearing mechanism, 644 00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,920 Speaker 10: so that there was one of the that was one 645 00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:06,000 Speaker 10: of the big asks. And yeah, I think you know. 646 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:11,520 Speaker 10: The perception is that the Vietnam is slowly making the 647 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:15,240 Speaker 10: kind of steps of progress that the investors want to see, 648 00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:17,879 Speaker 10: but there still seems to be quite a way to go. 649 00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:22,400 Speaker 4: Super comprehensive report on what's happening these days with the 650 00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:26,560 Speaker 4: Vietnamese economy. Francesca, thank you so very much. Bloomberg's Francesca 651 00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:31,640 Speaker 4: stevens Our, Vietnam Bureau Chief, joining from Hanoi. I'm Doug Chrisner. 652 00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 4: You can catch us weekdays for the Daybreak Asia podcast. 653 00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:37,880 Speaker 4: It's available wherever you get your podcast. Nathan. 654 00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 2: Thanks Doug, and that does it for this edition of 655 00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:44,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again. Monday morning, five am 656 00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:47,080 Speaker 2: Wall Street Time for the latest don markets, overseas, and 657 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:49,880 Speaker 2: the news you need to start your day. I'm Nathan Hager. 658 00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:50,560 Speaker 5: Stay with US. 659 00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,799 Speaker 2: Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right 660 00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:55,000 Speaker 2: now