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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day
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Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business Apple's turned back to Deep
Speaker 2: Seek's market impact of the last twenty four hours, losses
Speaker 2: extending beyond AI and ship giants as global investors reassess
Speaker 2: the sustainability of seeming the endless spending in the sector
Speaker 2: AI infrastructure companies including Constellation Energy and Vistra taking a
Speaker 2: hit during yesterday's market term or for more on there.
Speaker 2: We're joined by Sharp Pureza of Guggenheimshah. Welcome to the program, sir,
Speaker 2: I just want to understand from your perspect if Hagen
Speaker 2: reacted to the news of not just yesterday, but of
Speaker 2: the past week or so, and whether it upends your
Speaker 2: thesis for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3: No thanks for having me on, but to be honest,
Speaker 3: we believe yesterday's reaction in the news over the weekend
Speaker 3: with certainly a knee jerk reaction in the utility and
Speaker 3: power space. One of the things we've been highlighting to
Speaker 3: investors and clients is that this is some of the
Speaker 3: strongest power demand environment we have seen in over twenty years.
Speaker 4: Of covering the space.
Speaker 3: The US is essentially decoupling from China. In our view,
Speaker 3: and we don't quite agree with our competitors. Ten to
Speaker 3: thirteen percent of power demand today is coming.
Speaker 4: From AI on average.
Speaker 3: That's nationally, So everywhere you look, the demands for energy
Speaker 3: and power continue to grow.
Speaker 4: It's a supercycle. It's structural.
Speaker 3: So whether you're looking at the domestic manufacturing space, whether
Speaker 3: you're looking at the onshoring and reshoring of the manufacturing sector,
Speaker 3: the electrification of the system. Trump's big focus is on
Speaker 3: energy policy, LNG, peture chemicals, chloralkali. Anywhere you look this,
Speaker 3: even this energy revival is going to push power demand
Speaker 3: maturely higher. Industrial growth is extremely healthy and that's the
Speaker 3: key driver of infrastructure needs. So we believe yesterday's sell
Speaker 3: off was well overdone Sorr.
Speaker 5: Within your points there, I think there is an interesting nugget,
Speaker 5: which something is something that people have been talking about,
Speaker 5: which if you had the build out and the pace
Speaker 5: of the buildout of AI with the current capacity for
Speaker 5: the next five years, there is no way that the
Speaker 5: energy infrastructure, even with additions, could support that. Can you
Speaker 5: give us a sense of just even if you did
Speaker 5: reduce the energy demands significantly going forward of AI adoption,
Speaker 5: how you still would have to increase dramatically some of
Speaker 5: the energy production in the United States and globally.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think that's a very fair point
Speaker 3: you're bringing up. US infrastructure has not kept up with
Speaker 3: the demand. When you sort of think about electricity consumption
Speaker 3: for the past fifteen years, it's been a decelerating command
Speaker 3: with energy efficiency and demand side management, and then that
Speaker 3: of nowhere, there's this energy revival, there's this industrial revival,
Speaker 3: and the infrastructure in the US is not kept up
Speaker 3: with the demand needs. And this is why many of
Speaker 3: the utilities, the power companies, the ones that we cover,
Speaker 3: are building a massive amount of transmission system, They're building generation.
Speaker 3: We've seen the retirement of coal assets get delayed because
Speaker 3: of this very.
Speaker 4: Type power supply demand environment.
Speaker 3: So long and short of it is, infrastructure has not
Speaker 3: kept up with the demands, and we do not believe
Speaker 3: the news around deep seek is going to impact any
Speaker 3: of those fundamentals.
Speaker 5: That said s aar I guess one of the potential
Speaker 5: headwinds to the entire energy sector has just said. Commodities
Speaker 5: are actually getting cheaper. When it comes to oil prices,
Speaker 5: Sa've been going down. People are getting more efficient at
Speaker 5: producing a lot of energy. How do you dovetail that
Speaker 5: into your optimism at a time where we see the
Speaker 5: actual commodity price is coming down for a whole host
Speaker 5: of different reasons.
Speaker 3: Well, the commodity coming down is necessarily not a bad
Speaker 3: thing for the construms, correct, So, like you know, one
Speaker 3: of the arguments is to meet the needs of US infrastructure,
Speaker 3: small modular reactors likely not a viable option, large scale
Speaker 3: nuclear likely not a viable option. You're not building any
Speaker 3: more coal plants, offshore winds having a lot of hinderances.
Speaker 4: So really, what's going to satisfy the needs in the.
Speaker 3: Near term as a gridge to another technology is natural gas.
Speaker 3: So the more the commodity curves come down, the more
Speaker 3: it becomes economical to build the infrastructure that's needed to
Speaker 3: meet the power demands. So in our viewpoint, the drop
Speaker 3: in the commodity, the drop in natural gas, which is
Speaker 3: deconsolidated from utility spending to begin with, is a very
Speaker 3: big driver for spending needs and it's very pro consumer friendly.
Speaker 6: Is there a line in the stand though, where it's
Speaker 6: good for the consumer, but it still makes sense for
Speaker 6: companies to go out create new utilities to make sure
Speaker 6: that they can drill and get these products to market
Speaker 6: without losing money.
Speaker 3: I think you know the barriers to entry to get
Speaker 3: into the utility industry.
Speaker 4: It's one of the most capital intensive.
Speaker 3: Industries there is, so there is a barrier to entry
Speaker 3: to get in there. I think the point we're just
Speaker 3: trying to bring up is talking to many of these
Speaker 3: hyperscalers that you kind of mentioned talking to the utilities,
Speaker 3: there's a need for speed to market, right because, as
Speaker 3: Microsoft told us specifically on a client call, we're in
Speaker 3: a race to beat China, We're in a race to
Speaker 3: beat the three to four hyperscalers. We are not going
Speaker 3: to pull back spending, right.
Speaker 4: So the point is, is the amount of spending that is.
Speaker 3: Happening on US infrastructure, whether it's AI, whether it's on
Speaker 3: the energy space, whether it's industrial manufacturing, et cetera, has
Speaker 3: to be met with a generation source, right, and so
Speaker 3: there's a lot of money being put into it. I
Speaker 3: think natural gas is clearly the fuel, the bridge fuel
Speaker 3: to meet those needs, which is why there's so much
Speaker 3: investment going into the natural gas space. This is why
Speaker 3: one of the largest renewable develop lupers in the country,
Speaker 3: next to our Energy is now did a ge ge
Speaker 3: deal to build gas. This is why Constellation Energy, the
Speaker 3: biggest nuclear operator, acquired Colpine, the biggest gas operator.
Speaker 4: In the country.
Speaker 3: I think the shifts from decarbonization to resiliency and reliability
Speaker 3: are starting to take shape because I agree with you
Speaker 3: that as you're looking at the demand outlook, the infrastructure
Speaker 3: has not been able to keep up with it.
Speaker 6: Sure how much excitement is driven by politics, because of
Speaker 6: course Trump just last week lifted the permitting freeze that
Speaker 6: we had on LNG applications that were put under the
Speaker 6: Biden administration.
Speaker 4: Yeah, politics is certainly part of it.
Speaker 3: I think under the Trump administration, we have a viewpoint
Speaker 3: that it's really good for energy, right, so when you're
Speaker 3: thinking about carbon rules for natural gas, when you're thinking
Speaker 3: about pipelines, when you're thinking about the LNG markets. This
Speaker 3: clearly going to be a push to drill, drill, driu
Speaker 3: and the focus is becoming energy sort of independent and
Speaker 3: so part of this is but to be honest, like
Speaker 3: even before the Trump administration took the HELM, our viewpoint
Speaker 3: is the demand.
Speaker 4: Picture wasn't going away. There's such a big focus on.
Speaker 3: Shifting manufacturing back to the US, There's such a big
Speaker 3: focus around electrified electrification of the system.
Speaker 4: All that is very much pulls on demand. And that
Speaker 4: is before even the Trump administration took the HELM.
Speaker 3: Now, post Trump, it sort of adds a lot of
Speaker 3: additional drivers to it, which is like what you've highlighted,
Speaker 3: there's going to be a major ease around the energy infrastructure, business, permitting,
Speaker 3: et cetera. Again, all this that you're highlighting is going
Speaker 3: to push power demand growth higher.
Speaker 4: It's going to prompt.
Speaker 3: These utilities to build the infrastructure to meet the needs.
Speaker 2: I shall I appreciate your input and your opinion. Thank you,
Speaker 2: sir Champe, Resident of Gegenheim. So here's the lightest investors
Speaker 2: assessing USAI dominance after Chinese startup Deep Seeks newest AI model,
Speaker 2: triggered a sell off in global equities. Max Ketner of
Speaker 2: HSBC saying yesterday was not a game changer, writing when
Speaker 2: we look at the S and P five hundred breadth,
Speaker 2: it has been quite positive. The equal weighted index went
Speaker 2: up yesterday, not down. We might also see more broadening
Speaker 2: of the market, not only of the index, but also
Speaker 2: of the AI theme to enable us and users. Max
Speaker 2: joined us now for more Max, Welcome to the show, sir.
Speaker 2: I want to pick up on that last point. We've
Speaker 2: talked a lot over the last year about chips, about
Speaker 2: data centers, about energy providers. Do we need to talk
Speaker 2: a little bit more about who will benefit the adopters?
Speaker 2: Is that where you see the trade guming now?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I think so.
Speaker 7: I think when we look at the last year, or
Speaker 7: really a year and a half, there was a lot
Speaker 7: of questions, mark question marks on the AI theme, and
Speaker 7: we talked to clients, for example, around the monetization of AI.
Speaker 7: Who can really make money of that?
Speaker 1: Well?
Speaker 7: Number one we have already and we are already seeing,
Speaker 7: even on an index level, we're already starting to see
Speaker 7: I think some product activity gains, some efficiency gains. When
Speaker 7: we look at cross sectors in the S and P,
Speaker 7: there's a bunch of sectors already you know, very very
Speaker 7: clearly deploying AI and clearly having some beneficial sort of
Speaker 7: beneficial factors from that. But most importantly, I think we've
Speaker 7: always had sort of this feeling, Okay, it's really in
Speaker 7: video or maybe two three behemoth that really make money
Speaker 7: off this, but how we're going to make money with
Speaker 7: this on a broader scale. So I don't quite get
Speaker 7: the reaction from yesterday when people say, oh my goodness,
Speaker 7: it puts the whole years exceptionalism case really under threat
Speaker 7: because we've been moaning about it for really more than
Speaker 7: a year that you know, this is not a broad
Speaker 7: based story, and actually across all the names, it's highly
Speaker 7: questionable whether anyone can make money of that. Whereas what
Speaker 7: you're saying now is with that if that really comes
Speaker 7: to fruition that it is much much cheaper, which again
Speaker 7: is actually still remains a heavy, heavy question mark behind that.
Speaker 7: But if that's a theme, then this is a game
Speaker 7: changer actually all sort of the broader sectors to put
Speaker 7: AI to a test into practice and really really get
Speaker 7: some some gains from that, so it should then shift
Speaker 7: more to the AI and ablus that clearly have been
Speaker 7: lagging the trade over the last twelve to fifteen months.
Speaker 5: MAXI sound very optimistic, which is as I would expect
Speaker 5: considering that you've been taking a good dose of Goldilocks
Speaker 5: on steroids. I am wondering, though you talk about it
Speaker 5: might be a game changer, but it's not the game changer,
Speaker 5: and certainly not in a negative way with respect to tech.
Speaker 5: Tariff's not a game changer immigration. The real game changer
Speaker 5: is disinflation. How do you separate out this idea of
Speaker 5: disinflation with growth from these other ideas that are whip
Speaker 5: swing markets, whether it's tech advancement or whether it's tariffs.
Speaker 7: Look, I think on the tech side it really remains
Speaker 7: or on the AI side specifically, I think it really
Speaker 7: remains to be seen whether that is that big game changer.
Speaker 7: If anything, I think that's probably going to be something
Speaker 7: that we will see panning out in the next few years,
Speaker 7: not instantaneously in the next three six months. The same
Speaker 7: thing is on tariffs. We don't know how that will
Speaker 7: pan out, if it comes, how it may come. The
Speaker 7: same thing on immigration on any kind of really big,
Speaker 7: big immigration flows. Well, number one, we've already seen a
Speaker 7: peak in immigration flows in the second quarter last year,
Speaker 7: and ever since it's clearly gone down. So that and
Speaker 7: the inflationary impact on that, whether that's inflationary, and how
Speaker 7: much that's going to be, I think that is much
Speaker 7: more a story for age two, possibly only for age
Speaker 7: one twenty twenty six, but certainly not for the next
Speaker 7: three to six months, because, Lisa, what you were saying,
Speaker 7: the story now is the disinflationary impact from things like
Speaker 7: super co inflation, from the underlying inflation measure from the FED,
Speaker 7: and some of those insurance components that were sort of
Speaker 7: artificially inflating those inflation baskets at the beginning of last
Speaker 7: year that now perhaps not repeating at least to the
Speaker 7: same magnitude like we've had it in the first quarter
Speaker 7: twenty twenty four and first quarter twenty twenty three. I
Speaker 7: think that's the much bigger story, particularly from a timing perspective.
Speaker 7: So to your question, how do you separate them? I
Speaker 7: think people are sort of confusing the timelines a bit.
Speaker 7: What we're discussing about Tariff's immigration, you know, possibly life.
Speaker 6: The President is talking about potentially tariffs as soon as
Speaker 6: this Saturday, and if not a review by April first,
Speaker 6: do not take him seriously or literally.
Speaker 4: No.
Speaker 7: I think a lot of it might be tactics, right.
Speaker 7: We've seen that possibly also last Sunday with Columbia, for example,
Speaker 7: So I don't think it. I think that all let's
Speaker 7: put it away. I think the number one mistake that
Speaker 7: we can make, both on a portfolio basis, but or
Speaker 7: even on a just a trade by trade basis, is
Speaker 7: to trade off every single headline, day by day. Right. Otherwise,
Speaker 7: you know, Sunday evening we would have said, oh, really
Speaker 7: bad on em EM currency is really bad latam, and
Speaker 7: then twelve hours later you would have said, actually, scrap that,
Speaker 7: Let's go the entirely opposite direction. I think you're really
Speaker 7: risking then flip flopping around in terms of your views
Speaker 7: and really trade off every single headline rav then really
Speaker 7: and trade the bigger picture, the underlying inflation and growth picture,
Speaker 7: which again to me really really is sort of outweighing
Speaker 7: those kind of headline risks that we're facing in the
Speaker 7: next three four months.
Speaker 2: A Max got to hear from your Max Canda of
Speaker 2: HSBC the one stop to watch and video recovering after
Speaker 2: its worst day since March twenty twenty. The stop wiping
Speaker 2: out almost six hundred billion dollars in market cap, the
Speaker 2: biggest single day drop ever for a US company. The
Speaker 2: move coming after Deep Sik's cheap AI model fueled concern
Speaker 2: of a US tach dominance.
Speaker 5: So Jim read Over at Deutsche Bank compared the drop
Speaker 5: in market value as being more than the total market
Speaker 5: cap of Exxonmobile and Master Cards. You can basically put
Speaker 5: most companies into that bucket that the one day drop
Speaker 5: in valuation is a commensurate or superior surpassing in some capacity.
Speaker 5: What does this say? Number one, it says how high elevation,
Speaker 5: how high valuations had gotten. And b it talks about
Speaker 5: consensus trades, which is the reason why you're hearing a
Speaker 5: lot about bubbles in two thousand like behavior and all
Speaker 5: sorts of studies. I expect the history onics to maybe
Speaker 5: die down, but there has been a mentality shift and
Speaker 5: it seems like it may not go away so quickly.
Speaker 2: The President wank in yesterday as wow. Donald Trump, addressing
Speaker 2: concerns about Deep Sak killing the Chinese startups progress in AI,
Speaker 2: a positive Trump posts are delivering a warning send the companies.
Speaker 2: Apparent breakthrough should be a wake up call for US companies.
Speaker 6: He basically wants US companies to be laser focused on this.
Speaker 6: He says we should be out in front of China.
Speaker 6: He even said Chinese officials have told him himself that
Speaker 6: the US has the best scientist. Also weighing in on
Speaker 6: this was the new AI cryptos are within the administration.
Speaker 6: That's David Sachs. He went on Twitter and he was
Speaker 6: talking about how Trump was right to rescind the Biden
Speaker 6: executive order, which he says hamstrung American AI companies. Without
Speaker 6: asking whether China would do the same, He said, obviously not.
Speaker 6: And I'm confident the US and in the US and
Speaker 6: we cannot be complacent. This goes back to Trump's push
Speaker 6: last week ahead of all this with stargate. But how
Speaker 6: much more money and how much more effort is really
Speaker 6: going to go towards it.
Speaker 2: We'll catch up with Bernstein later. They put out a
Speaker 2: great note yesterday. They said we believe that one deep
Speaker 2: Seak did not build Open Ai for five million dollars.
Speaker 2: Two the models look fantastic, but we don't think they
Speaker 2: are miracles. And three the resulting Twitter verse panic over
Speaker 2: the weekend seems overblown.
Speaker 5: Basically, it doesn't change the whole model, and that's the
Speaker 5: reason why you see the little bit of a balance today. Nonetheless,
Speaker 5: there has been a sort of denial of the shift
Speaker 5: away from just investing in a lot of chips to
Speaker 5: the broadening out. This may open up that discussion a
Speaker 5: little bit more.
Speaker 2: You'll notice how towhere some dollar strength just want to
Speaker 2: squeeze in this story. Here's the why. President Trump also
Speaker 2: saying he wants to enact across the board tariffs that
Speaker 2: are quote much bigger than two point five percent. His
Speaker 2: comment's coming after The Financial Times reported Treasury Secretary scomp
Speaker 2: Person is backing universal tariffs on US imports starting at
Speaker 2: two point five percent and then maybe rising over time.
Speaker 2: The main event, though stocks are raising some of yesterday's
Speaker 2: losses after China, these AI startup deep Seak sparked a
Speaker 2: one trillion dollar routing the US tech stocks. Matt Bryson
Speaker 2: of Webbush writing, the AI race is still more about
Speaker 2: being the first to create models that realize greater value
Speaker 2: from AI versus lowering cost and software efficiency yields historically
Speaker 2: have led to more hardware spending and not less because
Speaker 2: the ROI of investing in hardware only increases. Madam pleased
Speaker 2: to say, join us right now for more. Matt, Welcome
Speaker 2: to the program. I shared a quote from Nvidia a
Speaker 2: little bit earlier this morning. I'd like to read it
Speaker 2: again and get your thoughts on it. When they say
Speaker 2: that deep Seek's work illustrates how new models can be
Speaker 2: created leveraging widely available models and compute that is fully
Speaker 2: export control compliant. Do you believe what you have seen
Speaker 2: is fully export control compliant?
Speaker 1: I mean, it's really hard for me sitting here in
Speaker 1: Boston to say what resources Deep Seek used. Obviously, we've
Speaker 1: all seen the speculation that they had process there is
Speaker 1: the were an expert compliant, that they were using processors
Speaker 1: that they had before the export restrictions went into place,
Speaker 1: and that the cost of their model was a whole
Speaker 1: lot more than five million dollars.
Speaker 5: That's said mattter. Is there sort of a takeaway here
Speaker 5: that we really have changed the mentality and maybe companies
Speaker 5: won't be as investing as much in capital expenditures to
Speaker 5: build out AI because there is an example of how
Speaker 5: things could be done more efficiently going forward.
Speaker 1: So I still stick by what I wrote, which is
Speaker 1: the question is or the thought process is AI changes
Speaker 1: how technology works. And so if you think AI is
Speaker 1: going to enable a great new technology like autonomous driving,
Speaker 1: it's not that it's too expensive right now, that it
Speaker 1: doesn't have the capabilities. And so the investment you're putting
Speaker 1: into your data centers is to enable that technology. And
Speaker 1: you want to be first thatechnology because we've seen time
Speaker 1: and time again when you have leaders in technology, they
Speaker 1: tend to stay leaders. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, you can go
Speaker 1: down the list that said.
Speaker 5: Mark Bennioff of Salesforce had a great quote, this is
Speaker 5: kind of classic in our industry. The pioneers are not
Speaker 5: the ones who end up being the victors. Matt, how
Speaker 5: much are we learning that some of the biggest gainers
Speaker 5: so far on the AI craze are not necessarily going
Speaker 5: to be the big gainers? Was this the Cisco moment
Speaker 5: for the likes of Nvidia?
Speaker 1: So the question then, I think is did we overbuild?
Speaker 4: So you look back to two.
Speaker 1: Thousand, did we simply build too much infrastructure like we
Speaker 1: did back in two thousand and we'll never use it?
Speaker 1: I guess I would be surprised I think that the
Speaker 1: differences in two thousand we created the backbone. Nineteen nine nine,
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety eight, we've created the backbone the internet. The
Speaker 1: Internet was working at that point. Again, with AI, we
Speaker 1: still haven't really realized what the benefits of AI are.
Speaker 1: So I think until we see, you know, here's a
Speaker 1: great new chatbot, or here's a great new personal assistant,
Speaker 1: and I'm buying a new iPhone because it's changing my
Speaker 1: life with this personal assistant, I think until then, it's
Speaker 1: really hard to say that we've invested enough.
Speaker 6: Well, where do you think we are now in the cycle?
Speaker 6: Is there a chance that it's over invested.
Speaker 1: I think there's a chance that that next technology takes
Speaker 1: longer to show up. So we get to the end
Speaker 1: of this year and there isn't a breakthrough in autonomous driving,
Speaker 1: There isn't a breakthrough and a personal assistant, and so
Speaker 1: companies look and say, it is that goal that we've
Speaker 1: been shooting for, is it really achievable the way that
Speaker 1: we're going about it? And people rethink that. And that's
Speaker 1: been the concern with Nvidio last year heading into this year,
Speaker 1: that at some point you can't justify the investment. But
Speaker 1: I don't think this changes that goal or the amount
Speaker 1: that people are willing to invest get to that goal,
Speaker 1: because again, if you create a tonments driving the returns
Speaker 1: are amazing. It's kind of if you became dominant search
Speaker 1: market back in the early two thousand and two thousand
Speaker 1: and one time frame.
Speaker 6: Well, you talk about the fact that in this intermediate term,
Speaker 6: if it is more efficient AI, like we're seeing from
Speaker 6: deep Seek that on the margins we could see increase adoption.
Speaker 6: What does that mean? What does that look like?
Speaker 1: Yeah, so if you think about AI right, part of
Speaker 1: it is part of the question is the expense. So
Speaker 1: I think about it in search for for instance, I
Speaker 1: think people have said a search on using AI something
Speaker 1: like ten x a traditional Google search. So if all
Speaker 1: of a sudden I can bring the pricing down by
Speaker 1: ninety percent, then you know, maybe I moved my infrastructure
Speaker 1: from traditional search to two AI search and then moving
Speaker 1: forward beyond that. So I create this this this new app.
Speaker 1: Lets let's say it's again a personal assistant on my phone.
Speaker 1: If if it's easier, if it costs less to UH
Speaker 1: support that app from a hardware perspective on my phone,
Speaker 1: then they'll be quicker adoption internal leads to you know,
Speaker 1: a faster refresh cycle. More seven conductor is getting sold.
Speaker 1: And so that's why I'd say in the intermediate term
Speaker 1: lowering costs. We've seen it again and again server virtualization
Speaker 1: for instance, it leads to faster adoption.
Speaker 2: I just want to squeeze this in. This does not
Speaker 2: raise questions about valuations as some of these firms though,
Speaker 2: do we have to sort of readdress that just a
Speaker 2: little bit, even if you can be optimistic about the future.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the valuation question it is always
Speaker 1: is always a fair question, and certainly markets have particularly
Speaker 1: recently fluctuted wildly. But no, again, I think the value
Speaker 1: the value of these firm is what we might be
Speaker 1: able to change in the future dot not how much
Speaker 1: it costs to get there.
Speaker 2: Matt, I appreciate your time and your impus, sir. Thank you,
Speaker 2: Matt Brice and there of webbers. This is the Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics.
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