1 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome in friends to betting pros. It's the week nine 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 1: CFF early line look ahead. I am Chris Welsh. That 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:11,319 Speaker 1: is thorn Nystrom. Eric Froton took the week off, He's 4 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:13,120 Speaker 1: got the week off. He'll be back again with us 5 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 1: next week. So it is just Thor myself breaking everything 6 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 1: down for week nine, getting you set for the lines 7 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: where the picks are. What's looking good early? But Thor, 8 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 1: what was looking good in week eight? Iowa wasn't they disappointed? 9 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: Florida State did come back kind of crazy. Any thoughts 10 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 1: that you want to jump out for us for week eight? 11 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:39,559 Speaker 2: Not the referees. They you know, another fun week at 12 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 2: college football. But the refs I got a bone to 13 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 2: pick with them in that Iowa game, In particular, the 14 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 2: whole game shifted on the punt return at the very 15 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 2: end where Cooper de John appeared to return a punt 16 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 2: for a touchdown that won the game for Iowa. Still 17 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 2: kept the game under even if that punt return had 18 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 2: gone through, but the refs ended up waving the punoff 19 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 2: on review of it. Where they weren't reviewing what. They 20 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 2: ended up reversing the call on taking the touchdown away 21 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 2: they were reviewing whether he had stepped out of pounds. 22 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 2: He did not, but on the review, as they were 23 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 2: looking at it, they start looking closer and they're like, wait, 24 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 2: what was going on with his hands there? Uh, And 25 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 2: and they ended up saying that he they flagged him 26 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 2: for what they called an inadvertent fair catch signal because 27 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 2: what he was doing the ball had hit the turf 28 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:32,559 Speaker 2: a couple of times and then was you know, rolling 29 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 2: towards him at midfield or whatever, and then he ended 30 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 2: up fielding it near the sidelines. But he was doing 31 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 2: the whole poison poison, don't touch it for his teammates 32 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 2: and doing the like the universal you know, shaking the 33 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 2: hand by his waist of like you know, hawkeyes, don't 34 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 2: touch it, poison poison. And the officials flagged him for 35 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 2: for that, for Inadverton, for catching if that is the 36 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 2: letter of the law, and perhaps it is, I I 37 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 2: don't know, you know, the reading of that, and I 38 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 2: didn't stay in a holiday and express last night. The 39 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 2: Rural Committee needs to go over that rule in the 40 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:14,399 Speaker 2: offseason and clarify whether the official fear of catch thing 41 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 2: is over the shoulder, over the helmet, a waving of 42 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 2: the hand and if that's that's indeed the case that 43 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 2: no one on the field change their the defenders bearing 44 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 2: down on Cooper Dejron in that play change their behavior 45 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 2: because he did the universal sign for teammates get away, 46 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,239 Speaker 2: the ball is bouncing on the turf in front of me, whatever, 47 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 2: and so you know, I mean, it was a it 48 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,360 Speaker 2: was a ludicrous thing to pull the touchdoun off for that, 49 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:45,920 Speaker 2: but I'd aggress on that. The Penn State Ohio State 50 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 2: game was interesting to where you saw an enormous swing 51 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 2: where it arguably swung the results of the game based 52 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 2: on a call that one probably more valid, but also 53 00:02:56,240 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 2: a play where it didn't hinder or the result of 54 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 2: the play. It wouldn't have changed based on the thing, 55 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:05,639 Speaker 2: but that one was a valid call. The holding on 56 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 2: Marvin Harrison where you had the stripsack and the fumble 57 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 2: return for Penn State. If that play doesn't get pulled 58 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 2: off the board, he had a fourteen point swing there. 59 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 2: Penn State brings the fumble back instead, that thing gets 60 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 2: overturned because on the other side of the field on 61 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 2: the crossing route they flagged the holding on Harrison. Whatever, 62 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 2: and Ohio State ends up getting the first down. They 63 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 2: end up scoring a touchdown on that drive. Ohio State 64 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 2: ends up winning that game by eight points on a 65 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 2: fourteen point swing whatever there at the end of the 66 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 2: first half. So a couple of tough swings there. But 67 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 2: like I said, overall, a fun day at college football. 68 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 2: We had a couple stunning upsets, and we almost had 69 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 2: more stunning upsets. The Virginia upset at North Carolina is 70 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 2: one of those where you stare at it, you watch it, 71 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 2: you watch the highlights, you still can't wrap your head 72 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 2: around it. It just doesn't make any logical sense. Virginia 73 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 2: the time of possession, it was like a fifteen minute discrepancy. 74 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 2: They just sat on the ball in that game. North 75 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 2: Carolina has a lot to figure out. And then the 76 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:19,280 Speaker 2: late night game, Arizona State almost beat a Washington team 77 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 2: that just decided not to show up a week after 78 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,599 Speaker 2: that awesome victory that they had over Oregon. At least 79 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 2: Washington survived it, but they also have some stuff to 80 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 2: figure out here over the next seven days. 81 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:35,160 Speaker 1: A bunch of crazy stuff. Totally got screwed by the 82 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: Iowa thing. But we move on, we move to week nine. 83 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: We got some we got some good games to break 84 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: down for you guys, and then Thors also got some 85 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 1: highlighted adjusted Thor lines at the end that you guys 86 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 1: might want to target for some early bettings. So let's 87 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:53,360 Speaker 1: go kick it off to one of the bets that 88 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:55,600 Speaker 1: I did win. It was Florida State did not look 89 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: good by the way against Duke for some time, and 90 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 1: then the fourth quarter change, Florida State is going to 91 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 1: be going up against wake Forest. Florida State opened at 92 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 1: a nineteen point favorite. So for what your system got, 93 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: what do you like? Is there a play here for you? 94 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, So let me start out with the Florida State 95 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 2: Douke game, and we need to investigate the situation with 96 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 2: Riley Leonard. I just got into a brief soliloquy about 97 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 2: some of the wonky things that happened yesterday. We could 98 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 2: do a whole investigated podcast series just based on weird 99 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 2: things that happened yesterday, but visa VI this game. One 100 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 2: thing that I'll be spending the next couple of days 101 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,919 Speaker 2: getting into is what is going on with Riley Leonard. 102 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 2: You and I were talking about this before we got 103 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 2: on the air for this show. Riley Leonard I had 104 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:49,720 Speaker 2: been given indications all week, including yesterday morning and up 105 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 2: until the afternoon that Riley Leonard was not going to 106 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:56,599 Speaker 2: be playing in that game, including from sources pretty close 107 00:05:56,640 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 2: to Riley Leonard. And then all of a sudden, you 108 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 2: get to right before the kickoff, and then it's like 109 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 2: Riley Leonard's on the field, warming up in his paths, 110 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 2: and it's like, okay, well I've seen that movie before. 111 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:09,039 Speaker 2: They just want Florida State to think that he's gonna play. 112 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 2: And then it's like, no, Riley Leonard's actually on the field. 113 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 2: He's taking the first snap, and it's like wait what 114 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:18,840 Speaker 2: and and so he ends up beginning that game and playing, 115 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:22,040 Speaker 2: and Duke is remaining viable in that game against Florida State. 116 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,919 Speaker 3: You know, Riley Leonard looks, looks good enough, whatnot. 117 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 2: And then Duke, without Riley Leonard appearing to aggravate that injury, 118 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 2: Duke just takes him out, and they showed on the 119 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 2: telecast like Elko going up to Leonard and being like 120 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 2: hey man, like we're not going to put you back 121 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 2: in the game, like you know, go go take a seat, 122 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 2: and then putting Bellen in the game and Leonard appearing 123 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:50,679 Speaker 2: to not be happy about that. Decision, you know, as 124 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,599 Speaker 2: you and I were talking about before before we got on. 125 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 2: I'm not sure, you know, we don't know if there 126 00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 2: was a conversation before that we saw that on the 127 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 2: broadcast of like did a team doctor come up to 128 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 2: Elko and and say I don't like the way he's 129 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 2: moving around? Was there other discussions? Was with someone in 130 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 2: Elkos that the headset? I don't know, but that the 131 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 2: way that played out was super weird because all week 132 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 2: again we had gotten the indications that he wasn't gonna play. 133 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 2: On game day we had gotten the same thing. It 134 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 2: was pretty stunning to see him out there and then 135 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 2: it appeared like he was more or less fine to 136 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 2: finish the game out. And then there was the dramatic 137 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 2: about phase even though it looked like Duke got a 138 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 2: shot to win that game. 139 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 3: So I don't I don't know. 140 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 2: What was going on with that, And I also just 141 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 2: wanted to do some housekeeping for the Houston fans out 142 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 2: there that are like, why are you talking about all 143 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 2: this random wonky stuff going on, all the blown calls, 144 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 2: but you didn't mention the fact of the worst spotting 145 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 2: call in the history of replay, where they the spot 146 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 2: with that that you know in our Texas game where 147 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 2: they blew that whole thing, Houston Cougar fans, I get 148 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 2: you that that was an abomination as well. I don't 149 00:07:57,520 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 2: have time to get into all the wonky stuff that happened, 150 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 2: yes but as far as as this game with Florida 151 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 2: State and Wake four as another weird thing that happened yesterday, 152 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 2: Wake four as a seventy yard touchdown drive within the 153 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 2: final minute of that game where Wake Forest had their 154 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 2: quarterback three in against pet a quarterback three who had 155 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 2: six passing attempts in his entire career heading into that game, 156 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 2: a converted safety because wake Forest top two quarterbacks were 157 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 2: ruled out for that game, and Pitt, you know, Pitt 158 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 2: was a head wake Forest gets the ball back and 159 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 2: it's like this, this third string quarterback, this converted safety, 160 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 2: who had done nothing that entire game, had two interceptions, 161 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 2: entered that last drive with zero touchdown, passes in like 162 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 2: seventy yards, and then in that last drive he had 163 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 2: as many passing yards as he had the entire game 164 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 2: up until that point, and then one more touchdown. It 165 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,200 Speaker 2: turned out, on that last drive they end up winning 166 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 2: the game because they get that touchdown at the very end. 167 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 2: That was a tough one because I was on pet 168 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 2: We got the under anyway, but this one you turn around. 169 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 2: We're gonna have to monitor this status of wake Forest 170 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 2: starting quarterback, the third string converted safety Wake Forest quarterback. 171 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 2: It's not going to be good here against Florida State. 172 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 2: That that is not going to work in this one. 173 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,959 Speaker 2: When Duke had to go to bellin it was I mean, 174 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 2: as you saw, mister Welsh, it was a totally different 175 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 2: story than when they had eighty five percent Riley Leonard 176 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 2: or you know whatever percentage she was last night. You 177 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,839 Speaker 2: need to at least be competent on offense when you're 178 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 2: facing Florida State. Duke's defense showed up last night, but 179 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 2: it's a totally different thing when you just can't do 180 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 2: anything on offense. That will be the case with Wake 181 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 2: For way Forest offense isn't even good with their starting quarterback. 182 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 2: But at least they can try to attempt at competency 183 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 2: with that the converted safety guy quarterback. They don't even 184 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 2: have that. They can't even try for that. The last 185 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,960 Speaker 2: drive that Pit defense was I don't know what was 186 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 2: going on there, But in this game, no you can't 187 00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 2: bet on on wake Forest if it's going to be 188 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 2: that the string guy again, So that would be the 189 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 2: only thing to monitor here. Maybe you could talk yourself 190 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 2: into it if the starter is going to be back 191 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 2: for this game, but that's the one thing to monitor here. 192 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 2: It would be Florida State or pass if it's gonna 193 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 2: be the third stringer again. 194 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 1: All right, some more early game action. We got Oklahoma undefeated, 195 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 1: Oklahoma seven and oh four and oh obviously in the 196 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 1: Big Twelve versus Kansas. Oklahoma though in ten and a 197 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: half point favorite, So Kansas five and two? Is this 198 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: line too low? What do you think for Kansas fighting? 199 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 3: Jayhawks? Baby? Another near enormous upset. Yesterday? 200 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:35,679 Speaker 2: We were on one of my better calls yesterday on 201 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 2: UCF traveling to Norman yesterday. Oklahoma had a lot of 202 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 2: problems with UCF yesterday defending that explosive you know, both 203 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:47,680 Speaker 2: the efficient run game and then that explosive passing attack. 204 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 2: They had all kinds of problems with Javon Baker, first 205 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 2: of all in that aerial offense at UCS and then 206 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 2: trying to put the clamps on the rushing offense at UCF. 207 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:01,599 Speaker 3: Kansas does some things to UCF. 208 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 2: Not in the exact same way the gusmel Zon does it, 209 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 2: but they do it in the same way of the 210 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 2: pre snap motion stuff that's spreading you out and then 211 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 2: putting you into conflict based on forcing you to tip 212 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 2: your hand pre snap with the motion. What kind of 213 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 2: coverage are you in? And then where are we going 214 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 2: to get the numbers? So we show the quarterback that's 215 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 2: that's where you get your pre snap read whatnot. And 216 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 2: then we're gonna put you into conflict. We're gonna get 217 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:28,840 Speaker 2: the ball on the side of the field where we 218 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 2: have the advantage whatnot. And then, like I said, put 219 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 2: your back end defenders into conflict, make them make a 220 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,439 Speaker 2: bad decision basically, so Kansas can do some of those 221 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:41,560 Speaker 2: same different things. Is there any shot that Jalen Daniels 222 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 2: the Kan's gonna get Jalen Daniels back in this game. 223 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 3: I would doubt it for a couple of different reasons. 224 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 3: I haven't heard the. 225 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 2: Best stuff about the status of his back to this point, 226 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:54,680 Speaker 2: some stuff about nerves and stuff like that. I don't 227 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:57,720 Speaker 2: know if he can make sort of a miraculous turnaround here. 228 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 2: I also haven't heard the best stuff about stuff he'd 229 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 2: been saying in back rooms about maybe already thinking about 230 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 2: a transfer in the off season. 231 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:07,959 Speaker 3: I had heard some. 232 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:10,679 Speaker 2: Stuff and it has been actually it was cooberated on 233 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:14,200 Speaker 2: my Saturday show by Mike Farrell said he had been 234 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 2: basically hearing the same stuff that I have been hearing about. 235 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 2: Mike Farrell said that he had heard from his radio 236 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 2: co host Rick Neuheisel on the radio last week that 237 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 2: Rick Neuheiseel said he had heard that Jalen Daniels was 238 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 2: thinking about he wanted to transfer to one of the 239 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 2: Los Angeles Power five schools to be a starting quarterback 240 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 2: next year, which I had heard as well. Jalen Daniels 241 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 2: is from California, et cetera. And when I initially heard that, 242 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 2: I was like, you know, it's not just because I'm 243 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 2: I'm a Kansas alum. It's like, Jalen, first of all, 244 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 2: what are the odds that you beat out Malachi Nelson 245 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 2: at USC you know, the number one quarterback in the 246 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 2: last class and the hand pick successor for Caleb Williams 247 00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 2: just about zero? And then what are the odds that 248 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,079 Speaker 2: you beat out Dante more Or at UCLA? 249 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 3: Probably lesson zero. 250 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,559 Speaker 2: So the fact that he is already thinking about that 251 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 2: and has apparently been forwarding that to a lot of 252 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,959 Speaker 2: different people, where now it's being talked about, talked about, 253 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 2: talked about like this, it wouldn't seem to indicate that 254 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:19,720 Speaker 2: there's great odds that he is going to be playing 255 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 2: in this game. All of which you're to say, we're 256 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 2: almost assuredly going to get mister Bean again for Kansas. 257 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 2: Mister Bean played pretty good in the in the game 258 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:30,079 Speaker 2: before the buy, did make a couple of mistakes, a 259 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 2: couple of interceptions, but he had the four touchdowns. Kansas 260 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 2: put up points in that game. They lost a close 261 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 2: one against Oklahoma State. If they can put up points 262 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 2: in this one, you get a little bit more than 263 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 2: the double digits. But I do feel like this is 264 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:46,719 Speaker 2: more or less a fair line. I'm just gonna come 265 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 2: down to ken Ken. Kansas put up those points, but yeah, 266 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:52,680 Speaker 2: I do think that this is a fair spread. Oklahoma 267 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 2: their defense can be had in the same way that 268 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 2: that we saw last week. But this is a game 269 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 2: that I'm gonna be handicapping a little bit more this week. 270 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 3: But I might be sniffing around the home dog in 271 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 3: this one. 272 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 1: We already talked to you talked a bit about the 273 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 1: weirdness with Duke. Duke number sixteen, Duke five and two 274 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,080 Speaker 1: going up against number twenty one Louisville, who is six 275 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 1: and one. Louisville is the favorite. The early line jumped 276 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: at three and a half. But your system is kind 277 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 1: of a value. I mean, we're gonna get I don't 278 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 1: get back into the waters all the craziness with Duke, 279 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 1: like you said, Riley Leonard and stuff, but your system 280 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 1: has Duke as a value here. But obviously there's some 281 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 1: probably question marks if you would want to jump in 282 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 1: on betting Duke. So what do you think on this game? 283 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, live right now, we're recording on Sunday afternoon in Vegas. 284 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 2: It's it's Louisville minus four my system Louisville minus one. 285 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 2: But that's with my system being if Riley Leonard was 286 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 2: was gonna play, So that three points right there, that's 287 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 2: what you're talking about Vegas is it's baking in more 288 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 2: the idea that Riley Leonard probably is not going to play. 289 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 2: So the value there it would be on Duke if 290 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 2: Riley Leonard indeed does play. So if you think that 291 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 2: Riley Leonard is going to play, or that he has 292 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 2: a better shot to play than the market currently does. 293 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 2: You would grab Duke right now because you're getting a 294 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 2: free three points on the line. And I will say 295 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 2: the Duke defense matches up exceedingly well, exceedingly well with 296 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 2: the Louisville offense. The reason why is, first of all, 297 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 2: Duke's defense is just good in a vacuum. And Mike 298 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 2: Elko is as good a defensive play caller as Jeff 299 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 2: Brom is a good offensive play caller. Those guys are 300 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 2: just about as elite at what they do as we 301 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 2: have in the sport. It's like two chess masters going 302 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 2: at each other. That's must see TV for me on 303 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 2: next Saturday night or next Saturday afternoon. I guess so 304 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 2: like and in particular exactly what their strengths are. Jeff 305 00:15:56,880 --> 00:16:00,080 Speaker 2: Brom he likes to show you look, show you look 306 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 2: early on, see the way that you're reacting to that, 307 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 2: and then fish for big plays off of that. And 308 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 2: that's how he derives them both in the passing game 309 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 2: and in the running game. You know, basically, how are 310 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 2: you defending this look? How are you defending this look? 311 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 2: He gets us off a tape as well, but also 312 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 2: the early game looks specifically how your defenders are doing it, 313 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 2: and then whether it's over the top shot, whether it's 314 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 2: the pursuit angles in the running game, and then we'll 315 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 2: give you a misdirection. We're going to do something else 316 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 2: off it that way. The thing is though, with Duke, 317 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 2: their defense takes away the explosives. They don't give up explosives. 318 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 2: They just categorically don't. They force you to be methodical 319 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 2: down the field. Well, when does Louisville start to make 320 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 2: their mistakes. It's when they don't get their explosives. That's 321 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 2: when they start to get frustrated. They start to become 322 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 2: like a petulant child of like, no, we want to 323 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 2: get our really quick touchdown down the field. When you 324 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 2: force them to go, you know, sort of like eat 325 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 2: the elephant, like bite by bite, that's when you start 326 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 2: to see Jack Plumber like start to make the mistakes 327 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 2: of like trying to force things in and whatnot. 328 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 3: And Drew R. 329 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 2: Jordan is a running back that wants to hit the dingers. 330 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 2: He doesn't want to slap singles around. So this offense, 331 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 2: that's what they want. They only want to get the 332 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 2: efficiency in order to set up the long bass. 333 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 3: Duke is able to take that away. 334 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 2: However, as we know Duke's do the defense plays up 335 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 2: when the offense can play up with it, or when 336 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 2: it can be supported like that when Bellen is in 337 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 2: and they don't for Leonard, and when they don't have 338 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 2: the offense where they can play off one another, and 339 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 2: then it's just the defense and it's stranded out there. 340 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:37,400 Speaker 2: And then it always has to be out there because 341 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 2: it's a three and outfest on offense. Or Bellen turns 342 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,360 Speaker 2: the ball over, now the defense has to go back 343 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,640 Speaker 2: out there in bad field position and whatnot. That's where 344 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 2: the tape, the tide starts to turn on them. So 345 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 2: that's the thing to monitor. Will Riley Leonard play or not. 346 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 2: If Riley Leonard plays, I would like Duke in this 347 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 2: one certainly with the points they I think that they 348 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 2: would have a really good shot to win this out right. 349 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,600 Speaker 2: If Riley Leonard does not play and it's Belling again, 350 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:07,680 Speaker 2: for me, it's probably gonna end up being a stay away. 351 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 2: But then it might be more Louisville in this one. 352 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: We got some SEC football. Number one, Georgia is going 353 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: up against Florida five and two Florida is Georgia is 354 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 1: a twelve and a half point favorite. I didn't get 355 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: a chance to see where your system is at on 356 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,880 Speaker 1: this though. We were talking before the before the recording 357 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 1: that your system and what dropped on the early lines 358 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:33,119 Speaker 1: very very step one two, like they're kind of locked 359 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 1: in together. So is there some value and is there 360 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 1: a play in this SEC match up? 361 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:37,640 Speaker 3: Yeah? 362 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 2: Are we still lowed to call it the world's largest 363 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 2: outdoor cocktail party? I still calling it the Red Red 364 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 2: River Shootout? So who cares about the PC stuff? This 365 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 2: is the world's largest out there cocktail party. And yes, 366 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,679 Speaker 2: my so this thing actually dropped when the first lines 367 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,439 Speaker 2: came out. Sunday is just for people that don't know 368 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 2: when that the real entertainment on Sundays is not the 369 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 2: NFL games. It's when the college football lines drop on 370 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 2: the off shores, because the sharps are the ones that 371 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 2: have the access to it and the first when they drop. 372 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:14,440 Speaker 2: It's not the solidified lines that you see later in 373 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 2: the week with the cut when all the market has 374 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,679 Speaker 2: had a chance to just fine tune it and the 375 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 2: books have an enormous money on both sides, so you 376 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,879 Speaker 2: don't see as much of the big timeline movement. 377 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:26,680 Speaker 3: It's just like sort of like a feeler. 378 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 2: It's like a flare that the books send out, and 379 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 2: then you just have an enormous amount of the limits 380 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:35,919 Speaker 2: are lower, but it's like you get this batting around 381 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 2: of the lines. It's like really intense of like, you know, 382 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 2: money on this side, money on this side. You're seeing 383 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:43,439 Speaker 2: limit bets, you know, bang ban bang bang bang, and 384 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,360 Speaker 2: so you see toggling back boom. 385 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 3: Boom, boom, boom boom. 386 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 2: This line dropped actually at Jorgia minus fifteen point five 387 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,439 Speaker 2: and obviously was hit hit down to the line that 388 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 2: you just mentioned. My line on this one was Georgia 389 00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:00,199 Speaker 2: minus fourteen point eight. I think you could argue you 390 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 2: for the viability of a line beneath two touchdowns, which 391 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 2: you're you know, you're saying it is already at this 392 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 2: point because of the absence of brock Bauers, which cannot 393 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 2: be understated on this specific Georgia team. This specific Geordia 394 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 2: team does not have the dominant defense number one of 395 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 2: the last couple of national title teams. 396 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 3: Number two. 397 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 2: They do not run the ball as dominantly as the 398 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 2: past couple national title teams. Number one because they don't 399 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 2: have the quite the offensive line that they did the 400 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 2: last couple of years. Number two because they don't quite 401 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 2: have the dominant running backs of the last couple of years. 402 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 2: And then if you believe that Carson beck is a 403 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 2: downgrade on Stetson Bennet as well, then you know you 404 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 2: have that as well. And then brock Bauers was sort 405 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 2: of the trump card that they had both in certainly 406 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 2: in the passing game that the matchup nightmare guy that 407 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:53,400 Speaker 2: no opponent has a guy that can trail that guy, 408 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 2: whether it's down the field, whether it's across the middle, whatever, 409 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,159 Speaker 2: but also in the run game because you could do 410 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:00,480 Speaker 2: so many different things with him in terms of emotion, 411 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,400 Speaker 2: in terms of getting him involved in the running game, 412 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,400 Speaker 2: the jet sweeves, different stuff like that. Now you take 413 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 2: him off the field, you don't have that trump card anymore, 414 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 2: so you have to downgrade them. Brock Bauer is in 415 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 2: terms of worth on the line, certainly the most valuable 416 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 2: tight end in the nation by far. He's almost transcends 417 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:23,119 Speaker 2: that positional value. But he to me, he is worth 418 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 2: a couple points on the line, and that's there's I mean, 419 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,120 Speaker 2: there's just not many other non quarterbacks where you would 420 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 2: say the same about him. But yeah, to me, this line, 421 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:37,160 Speaker 2: it's it's that that's about fair where it is right now. 422 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,199 Speaker 2: This is a no bet for me right now. I 423 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,359 Speaker 2: will be investigating this one more as we go forward 424 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 2: this week. 425 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: Well, if you guys want to investigate as well throughout 426 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:48,480 Speaker 1: the week, obviously you want to check out all the 427 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,679 Speaker 1: great shows we've got here on Betting Pros. But the 428 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,440 Speaker 1: best way to do it is get Betting Pros. Get 429 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 1: the app on your phone you're iOS or Android. Today 430 00:21:56,359 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 1: you can follow top experts like thor top rated betters, 431 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 1: betters on hot streaks, and you can get instant notifications 432 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 1: win new bets are placed. You can also customize it 433 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: so those notifications can be specifically for ROI positive historically 434 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 1: ROI positive markets for that certain better because we can 435 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 1: bet lots of different stuff. Take advantage of these features 436 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 1: and a ton more. Download Betting prosapp by visiting Bettingpros 437 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,440 Speaker 1: dot com, slash apps, or just going to your store 438 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: search Betting Pros. You're locked in and start following some 439 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,880 Speaker 1: of the best today. Next up on the card we're 440 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 1: looking at BYU going to Texas Texas is now six 441 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,439 Speaker 1: and one and they are almost a three touchdown favored 442 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,080 Speaker 1: against BYU twenty and a half. Is that a key 443 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: marker to jump in early or no? What do you 444 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 1: think this one is going to get to and are 445 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 1: you placing any bets on BYU Texas? 446 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:49,639 Speaker 3: This is stay away early. 447 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 2: My funny enough, my line is Texas minus twenty point three. 448 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 2: This is one that opened up earlier today at Texas 449 00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,080 Speaker 2: minus eighteen point five, and then it jumps up to 450 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 2: two right to where my line is, and that's the 451 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 2: correct line movement early on. I think this one probably 452 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:10,399 Speaker 2: closes twenty one, maybe twenty one and a half, but 453 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 2: that's that's going to be where it gets interesting once 454 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 2: it gets to the twenty one. But it makes sense 455 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,119 Speaker 2: that that probably it gets through tonight at the twenty 456 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,680 Speaker 2: and a half. To me, that's the objectively fair line. 457 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 2: It was dropped earlier today a little bit low. B 458 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 2: YU had they had a good showing yesterday in terms 459 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 2: of their win and one where it was it was 460 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,680 Speaker 2: a bit more margin than we thought, but the opponent had, 461 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,680 Speaker 2: you know, some injury problems whatnot with Texas Tech. They 462 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 2: ended up beating BYU beat Texas Tech twenty seven defuse 463 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 2: b YU. They're a team that's five and two, but 464 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 2: it's a bit of a paper tiger thing that wins 465 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,360 Speaker 2: this season over Sam Houston State, who has not won 466 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,760 Speaker 2: a game all season long. Then they beat b Y's. 467 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:57,880 Speaker 2: Next game, they beat an FCS team, Then they beat 468 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 2: Arkansas that has only two wins thisason and is about 469 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,679 Speaker 2: to fire Sam Pittman. Then they lost to Kansas, then 470 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 2: they beat Cincinnati, who's going to miss a bowl game. 471 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 2: Then they lost to a down TCU team, and then 472 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,320 Speaker 2: they just beat Texas Tech. So again a paper tiger 473 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 2: type five and two team, but I think more or 474 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,480 Speaker 2: less this line is fair. So this is all wait 475 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 2: and see you one for me and probably not a 476 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 2: game I'm gonna bet this week. 477 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: All right, well this should be a good one. Number 478 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:25,400 Speaker 1: nine organ this pack twelve action boy. This game. They're 479 00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,240 Speaker 1: six and one going up against Utah number fourteen, who's 480 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,480 Speaker 1: also six and one. Both losses came in the Pac 481 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 1: twelve Utah all one and a half point favorite man. 482 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 1: Utah football has been interesting, but this is a powerhouse matchup. 483 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,159 Speaker 1: Is there any line value out of your system and 484 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,400 Speaker 1: is there a bet that you're trying to jump on early. 485 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 3: What did you say the line was though? 486 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,400 Speaker 1: Now, I got it at Betting Pros early at minus 487 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,159 Speaker 1: one and a half utah one and a half. That 488 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: was on Betting Pros about an hour before we started. 489 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 1: What do you got? 490 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,919 Speaker 2: Wow? Yeah, So the I'm seeing at a one of 491 00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:59,440 Speaker 2: my books live, it's Oregon minus five. The one that 492 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 2: was on my sheet was Oregon minus five and a half. 493 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:03,879 Speaker 2: So that's that's an interesting line that you're seeing. 494 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, let me I'll double check out, because this is 495 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 1: just on Betting Pros a little bit earlier, uh before 496 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 1: maybe everything locked in, but this was the very very 497 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,480 Speaker 1: early line that I got. Let me see if I'm 498 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: off though. 499 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 3: But you go ahead. 500 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, the and and you know, like like we were 501 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 2: mentioning before the Lions vacillate wildly on Sunday, so you 502 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 2: never do know. But yeah, the with with Oregon right 503 00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 2: now in the market, you know, it's it's five or 504 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:31,680 Speaker 2: five and a half depending on on where you're looking 505 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 2: at right this this second, my line is Oregon minus 506 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:41,440 Speaker 2: four point seven heading the utah and interesting one here 507 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 2: in that uh utah yesterday they avoided both a uh uh, 508 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,679 Speaker 2: they're they're the foibles that you had seen earlier this 509 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:55,720 Speaker 2: year with them going on the road, and they also 510 00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:59,679 Speaker 2: sort of uh fended off the USC bounce back spot, 511 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 2: you know, with USC coming off that Notre Dame one, 512 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 2: So they were able to fend that off, you know. 513 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 2: In addition, and Utah continues to to you know, also 514 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 2: stave off the enormous amount of injuries to the roster, 515 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,200 Speaker 2: and by the way, continue more and more injuries every 516 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 2: single week. This is a certified zombified Utes roster at 517 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 2: this point, again just getting worse and worse and worse 518 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:33,679 Speaker 2: every single week. After yesterday's when last night's winning against USC, 519 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:38,320 Speaker 2: it was confirmed by Utes coach Kyle Whittingham, Vetch cam 520 00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,680 Speaker 2: Rising and brand Keithy the tight end that they have 521 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 2: been shut down for the season, which at least finally, 522 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,320 Speaker 2: like I was able to finally cut Brand Keithy on 523 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,399 Speaker 2: my fifty team college fantasy football roster last night, I 524 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,560 Speaker 2: was finally able to admit to myself that I had 525 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:57,359 Speaker 2: made a mistake on that one. But like I said, 526 00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 2: just just more and more injuries for the Utes. They 527 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, I'm I'm trying to fill a buster 528 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,160 Speaker 2: for some time because they lost a key defender as 529 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 2: well as oh Lander Barton. Of course I was I 530 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,160 Speaker 2: was like, who am I blanking? 531 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,960 Speaker 3: Lander Barton? Their stud linebacker? They lost him too. 532 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,760 Speaker 2: It's like every single game they not only have they 533 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:20,560 Speaker 2: been out all these these key guys, but it's like 534 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 2: every single game they lose another key guy and it's 535 00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:28,240 Speaker 2: like it's like God is testing Kyle Whittingham. It's like, 536 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 2: you know, it's like this this like Joe like season, 537 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 2: and it's like, you know, God is like Kyle Whittingham, 538 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,119 Speaker 2: I want to see just how good of a coach 539 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,199 Speaker 2: you are and just you know, how good of a 540 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 2: record you can do without half of your roster or whatever. 541 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 2: So I mean, we're gonna find out now with now 542 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:48,919 Speaker 2: without Lander Barton as well. Yesterday against USC, this convert 543 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:50,639 Speaker 2: you know, I was talking about the converted safety that 544 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 2: Wake Forrest had to start at quarterback yesterday. Uh and 545 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:57,320 Speaker 2: and not got Utah. They have a converted safety that 546 00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,600 Speaker 2: that they they had started running back and run for 547 00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 2: one hundred fifty yards two weeks ago. Yesterday against USC. 548 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 2: This kid not only was you know, doing stuff as 549 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 2: a traditional running back, now they have them doing all 550 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,280 Speaker 2: these receiving concepts. So the kid is as a runner, 551 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 2: Sioni Vaki as the kid I'm talking about. He had 552 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,240 Speaker 2: nine carries for sixty eight yards yesterday against USC, but 553 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 2: as a receiver now, and this is some of the 554 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,160 Speaker 2: stuff that we hadn't seen before. Five receptions, one hundred 555 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,080 Speaker 2: and forty nine yards and two touchdowns. I don't know 556 00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,760 Speaker 2: how Whittingham and his staff do this kind of stuff. 557 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 2: It's stuff we're like at Iowa with Brian Farrence. You 558 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 2: just want to shake him and be like, do the 559 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 2: stuff that Utah does when they're in these scenarios with 560 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:40,600 Speaker 2: Cooper deujon, put Cooper de jon on offense, you know whatever. 561 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 2: Obviously Utah is in a pickof but in this game, 562 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 2: can Utah patrick together again against a really good opponent 563 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 2: in Oregon? Now that Utah is going back home the 564 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,479 Speaker 2: place where they traditionally play really well. That was the 565 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,480 Speaker 2: impressive thing about yesterday where you go to USC, a 566 00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,200 Speaker 2: team that is in we absolutely need to win this 567 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:05,000 Speaker 2: game kind of scenario. USC was at home and Utah 568 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 2: was able to more or less put the clamps on 569 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 2: Caleb Williams. It wasn't like the implosion kind of Caleb 570 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:14,240 Speaker 2: Williams game like the week before, but Utah was able 571 00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,840 Speaker 2: to hold Caleb Williams twenty four for twenty four two 572 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 2: and fifty six yards, no touchdowns, There wasn't an interception, 573 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,080 Speaker 2: but again Utah was able to more or less keep 574 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 2: them within the bumpers and hold down that the offensive output. 575 00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:32,520 Speaker 2: And then between the vaky guy between Jaquin and Jackson 576 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 2: putting up one hundred and seventeen yards and Bryce and 577 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 2: Barnes had one of his better games, had three touchdowns 578 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 2: two hundred and thirty five yards passing. They were able to 579 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,520 Speaker 2: scratch out enough offense to end up pulling out that 580 00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:45,720 Speaker 2: game by three points with the field goal late and whatnot. 581 00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 2: My line is pretty close on this one. It would 582 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 2: be a different story for me if Utah had to 583 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,920 Speaker 2: go on the road in this one, but like with 584 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 2: Utah being at home, I think that this line is 585 00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,000 Speaker 2: pretty close. This one is not an early week bet 586 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 2: for me. This one is going to be one where 587 00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 2: I'm gonna be investigating, investigating it more during the week, 588 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,480 Speaker 2: seeing if some of those Utah guys that have not 589 00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 2: been ruled out for this season. We are now getting 590 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:11,280 Speaker 2: a longer list of Utah guys that have been ruled 591 00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:13,240 Speaker 2: out for the season, But are some of those guys 592 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,560 Speaker 2: that are are on the weekly questionable report for Utah. 593 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 2: Are is you talking to get back any of more 594 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:22,360 Speaker 2: of those guys where I can project more roster strength 595 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:23,880 Speaker 2: for Utah in this game or is it going to 596 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,959 Speaker 2: be closer to the true Zombia fide roster in this 597 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 2: game against Oregon. We'll check back later this week in 598 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 2: the midweek pod, you know, and then the Saturday show 599 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 2: with Farrell for my final referendum on this game. 600 00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,120 Speaker 3: But no bet for me right now, by the. 601 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,160 Speaker 1: Way, getting back to it, the line the very first 602 00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,000 Speaker 1: line betting pros. If you're on the website, you can 603 00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,520 Speaker 1: check Gay Odds. You can see what all the different 604 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 1: sites have for their current lines. You can also see 605 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,680 Speaker 1: what the first line that was made available. The first 606 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,200 Speaker 1: line that was made available was Utah minus one and 607 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,120 Speaker 1: a half. So that's where like I literally saw it 608 00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,360 Speaker 1: as it was posted, and then it has moved to 609 00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:03,200 Speaker 1: as you said, there's a plus five and a half 610 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:06,320 Speaker 1: on Utah right now, So there's been some really interesting, 611 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,040 Speaker 1: interesting line movement that's gone on with that one. All right, 612 00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,360 Speaker 1: let's go over to Tennessee, who's five and two up 613 00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:15,040 Speaker 1: against Kentucky also five and two sec football Tennessee. I've 614 00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,120 Speaker 1: got at three and a half, but I'm now dicey 615 00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 1: about I'm gonna have to confirm all my lines. Yeah, 616 00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 1: it looks like it's still around three and a half 617 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:22,480 Speaker 1: on most of the markets. So what do you think 618 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:23,760 Speaker 1: on this game? Is there a bet for you? 619 00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 2: My line is Tennessee minus four point nine Tennessee. Very 620 00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:34,640 Speaker 2: strange game yesterday against Alabama where the first half was 621 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:38,560 Speaker 2: the game was in Tuscal loose. First half was the 622 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 2: best half of football I've ever seen Joe Milton play. 623 00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:44,680 Speaker 2: And it came totally out of nowhere, right Like he 624 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 2: did not project to play well in that game on 625 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 2: the road against that really really good Alabama defense, but 626 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 2: you got every good aspect of good bazooka Joe Milton. 627 00:31:56,760 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 2: He was poised, He was throwing well down the field. 628 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:03,720 Speaker 2: The accuracy ticked off like it was like, oh my gosh, 629 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 2: like when like when people are like, oh the tools 630 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 2: he Joe Milton. That the Joe Milton that someone could 631 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,320 Speaker 2: take a shot on on Day two of the upcoming 632 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:16,520 Speaker 2: NFL Draft, just because of that theoretical upside. This is 633 00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 2: the tape that they will point to. And so it 634 00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,800 Speaker 2: was like Tennessee has got a real shot here to 635 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,920 Speaker 2: to spring the upset. And then it was like they 636 00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,320 Speaker 2: went into halftime, but that it was like the the 637 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 2: real Joe Milton showed up after halftime. I guess not 638 00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:34,800 Speaker 2: the mistakes, but he just you know, he sort of 639 00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 2: reverted back turned into a pumpkin. And then in kind 640 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 2: sort of the rest of the Tennessee offense that the 641 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:45,000 Speaker 2: Alabama run defense was incredibly impressive throughout, which part of 642 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,080 Speaker 2: the reason why Joe Milton's first half performance was so 643 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 2: impressive because he didn't have the run game with him, 644 00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,960 Speaker 2: but Alabama shut off the lights on on on Tennessee's 645 00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,920 Speaker 2: run game in that one, and Alabama was able to 646 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,560 Speaker 2: start scratching out the offense in the second half and 647 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:03,360 Speaker 2: and come back in this game. Kentucky, we've seen hit 648 00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,239 Speaker 2: or miss Kentucky this year. Overall. They're playing better than 649 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,480 Speaker 2: we thought coming into the season, but it seems to 650 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 2: be sort of circumstantially opponent dependent as far as how 651 00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,720 Speaker 2: they play. But they do get Tennessee at home here, 652 00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:22,080 Speaker 2: Kentucky is sort of a gatekeeper of the SEC and 653 00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 2: maybe sort of Tennessee is as well, so you sort 654 00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:29,320 Speaker 2: of have these teams in a similar filum. My system 655 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 2: leans Tennessee in this one with where the line is 656 00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:36,120 Speaker 2: right now, because my line being more like Tennessee minus five. 657 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:37,880 Speaker 3: I don't know, though. 658 00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,160 Speaker 2: This is not one where I would advocate for the 659 00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,040 Speaker 2: bet right now. This is one where I want to 660 00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,880 Speaker 2: get deeper into the numbers because I think I like 661 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 2: Kentucky just a little bit more than my system does, 662 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 2: and I'm always reticent about Dree Milton on the road 663 00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:54,000 Speaker 2: against a decent defense where I think the mistakes can. 664 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:54,719 Speaker 3: Start to pile up. 665 00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:56,560 Speaker 2: That's why I was so stunned about the first half 666 00:33:56,600 --> 00:34:00,040 Speaker 2: performance last week. And I do like Kentucky's defense, and 667 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:01,760 Speaker 2: so this one's a stay away from me. 668 00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:03,840 Speaker 3: I'm gonna be getting into the handicap more this week. 669 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:05,520 Speaker 1: All right, let's go over to the Big Ten. We've 670 00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:09,399 Speaker 1: got Ohio State going two Wisconsin. Wisconsin's five and two, 671 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,839 Speaker 1: three and one in the Big Ten. Obviously, Ohio State 672 00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:14,920 Speaker 1: hasn't lost a game. OSU thirteen and a half is 673 00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,720 Speaker 1: where I'm seeing the line again. Those little key markers 674 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,960 Speaker 1: on those touchdowns, what do you think on Ohio State, 675 00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:23,920 Speaker 1: is this a play for you? Is this maybe a 676 00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:25,919 Speaker 1: total play? I don't know where your line is at, 677 00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,000 Speaker 1: So what do you think on Ohio State and Wisconsin. 678 00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:31,000 Speaker 3: My system is right where Vegas is. 679 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,120 Speaker 2: My line on this one is Ohio State minus thirteen 680 00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:40,239 Speaker 2: point three in Madison. I was impressed with Wisconsin's performance yesterday. 681 00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:41,200 Speaker 3: In Champagne. 682 00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,200 Speaker 2: I was a little bit surprised with how bullish the 683 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,280 Speaker 2: market was on Illinois this past week. 684 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,360 Speaker 3: They like everyone and their brother was on Illinois. 685 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,080 Speaker 2: And it's like, guys, if you watched Illinois this year, 686 00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 2: they're terrible, and it's like it was like just because Wisconsin, 687 00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,600 Speaker 2: it's sort of falling on their face against a really 688 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:03,439 Speaker 2: good Iowa defense. You know, there was sp plus number 689 00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,839 Speaker 2: one heading into yesterday and probably still will be, I 690 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 2: assume this week, even you know, after the lost against Minnesota. 691 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,600 Speaker 2: But when in that game, Wisconsin had lost more to 692 00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:15,319 Speaker 2: Kai in the middle of the game and then they 693 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,200 Speaker 2: had thrust their backup into it and Wisconsin they just 694 00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,879 Speaker 2: Wiscons's offense couldn't do anything. So everyone was betting Illinois 695 00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:25,120 Speaker 2: and that revenge spot for you know, revenge spot or 696 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 2: whatever for Brett Bielima, and it's like Wisconsin's better than 697 00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,200 Speaker 2: you know illin you know I thought, or whatever, and 698 00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,200 Speaker 2: that that's what ended up bearing out in that game 699 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,400 Speaker 2: last week. I had done a deep dive into that 700 00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:40,160 Speaker 2: backup quarterback of Wisconsin just to see sort of where 701 00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,080 Speaker 2: we were at. I didn't know anything about the kid. 702 00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:44,440 Speaker 2: I I only got the bandwidth for the draft and 703 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,600 Speaker 2: then the college football season. You know, the collge football teams, 704 00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,120 Speaker 2: you know, I go like half the year of each 705 00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:53,560 Speaker 2: and what I don't have the bandwidth for is deep 706 00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,239 Speaker 2: diving the recruiting stuff. So I just have to sort 707 00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:59,879 Speaker 2: of get to know those kids as they start to play, 708 00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:03,520 Speaker 2: right or like, you know whatever. So the Wisconsin backup 709 00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:07,160 Speaker 2: quarterbacks this kid named Locke, and he had started his 710 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,600 Speaker 2: career at Mississippi State. He is like a student of 711 00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:12,839 Speaker 2: the air raid so he wanted to play for Mike 712 00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:16,919 Speaker 2: Leach and obviously Mike Leach's untimely death. Like the kid 713 00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,120 Speaker 2: that Locke had followed there, Sawyer Robertson. Sawyer Robertson was 714 00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:23,799 Speaker 2: another air RAI disciple of Sawyer. Robertson had transferred out. 715 00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:27,440 Speaker 2: He went to Baylor after that Locke he also transferred 716 00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:31,160 Speaker 2: out after that, he ended up picking Wisconsin, and they 717 00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,799 Speaker 2: he talked about after he transferred that the reason he 718 00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:37,120 Speaker 2: did that was he had talked a ton to Phil 719 00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:43,399 Speaker 2: Longo and the system of Wisconsin. The athletic had talked 720 00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:46,880 Speaker 2: to this Locke kid's father about how like he had 721 00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:50,439 Speaker 2: stumbled in on the meeting when they visited Madison during 722 00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,800 Speaker 2: the transfer process, and how like it was like multiple 723 00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:57,000 Speaker 2: hours where his son was talking to Phil Longo and 724 00:36:57,040 --> 00:37:00,440 Speaker 2: they were just like drawing plays on napkins and like 725 00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:05,120 Speaker 2: finishing each other's sentences, and the system like they just 726 00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,919 Speaker 2: you know, the kid like understood it really well because 727 00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:10,480 Speaker 2: of the air raid principles and whatnot. And so the 728 00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:13,160 Speaker 2: idea that like he wasn't going to know what he 729 00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 2: was doing at least as far as the system went. 730 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:17,719 Speaker 2: I figured that at least he was going to know 731 00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,719 Speaker 2: what he was doing. And he flew over that lock kit, 732 00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:24,680 Speaker 2: flew over his passing totals yesterday, and obviously they were 733 00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:26,840 Speaker 2: able to pull out that win. This is going to 734 00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,680 Speaker 2: be a different can of worms here against Ohio State, clearly, 735 00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:33,000 Speaker 2: and he's going to be not with the system, pulled 736 00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:34,520 Speaker 2: out of his comfort zone, but pulled out of his 737 00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:37,440 Speaker 2: comfort zone in terms of the game script, almost assuredly, 738 00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:40,359 Speaker 2: because Ohio State, you would imagine, is going to get 739 00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,040 Speaker 2: out to a lead and it's going to force Wisconsin 740 00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,239 Speaker 2: to throw more than they would like get away from 741 00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,439 Speaker 2: brailn Allen, et cetera, trying to get back into the game. 742 00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:52,400 Speaker 2: But objectively, my system says that this is a fair line. 743 00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:55,880 Speaker 2: Obviously Ohio State has to go in here, and Ohio State, 744 00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:58,160 Speaker 2: you have to say it. They're coming off that big 745 00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,719 Speaker 2: win against Penn State. They were it's the big swing 746 00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:04,200 Speaker 2: play in that game, like we talked about that, you know, 747 00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:06,839 Speaker 2: and oh Say was able to take advantage and then 748 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:08,719 Speaker 2: in the second half they were able to pull away 749 00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,080 Speaker 2: in that one, end up winning by eight. Now they 750 00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,560 Speaker 2: go on the road to Wisconsin in this one. I 751 00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:16,000 Speaker 2: think Wisconsin would be more viable as far as a 752 00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,080 Speaker 2: live dog if they had the steady hand of Mordecai 753 00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,759 Speaker 2: the veteran. But again, I don't see a ton of 754 00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:24,600 Speaker 2: value with where that line is right now. So that 755 00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,240 Speaker 2: is an early week stay away for me. But that's 756 00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,280 Speaker 2: another one where I'm gonna be handicapping that one pretty 757 00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:30,040 Speaker 2: close during the week. 758 00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:32,160 Speaker 1: All the last one on the main slate that we're 759 00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:34,840 Speaker 1: going to talk about. We got a PAC twelve, great 760 00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:37,319 Speaker 1: PAC twelve game. I don't know if it'd be great 761 00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:40,560 Speaker 1: from a betting perspective. We want to play Colorado, I 762 00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,359 Speaker 1: guess as much as we can. I'm kind of over it. 763 00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,640 Speaker 1: But Colorado's four and three, they are one in three 764 00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:47,680 Speaker 1: in the PAC twelve. They're going up against a ranked 765 00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,600 Speaker 1: UCLA team who is five and two, and UCLA opened 766 00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:54,880 Speaker 1: up at fifteen and a half. So will the system 767 00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:58,440 Speaker 1: bring us back to Colorado? Thor is there a bet 768 00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,360 Speaker 1: that you want to jump in on that specifically early? 769 00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:03,600 Speaker 3: Is it a fifteen and a half live right now? 770 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,319 Speaker 1: That was what I wrote down here? Let me I 771 00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,160 Speaker 1: can tell you what I okay, So no, it opened 772 00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:13,440 Speaker 1: at fifteen and a half. Now best odds are seventeen 773 00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,479 Speaker 1: UCLA and you can get six seventeen and a half 774 00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:17,279 Speaker 1: on Colorado. 775 00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:19,360 Speaker 3: Oh that's interesting, okay. 776 00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,239 Speaker 2: So yeah, So some of the other ones we talked 777 00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:25,200 Speaker 2: about today, it's different this one. It's sort of the 778 00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,080 Speaker 2: other way where this one opened up where my line 779 00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:31,080 Speaker 2: is and then it jumped up above it. So my 780 00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:33,680 Speaker 2: line on this one is UCLA minus fifteen point five, 781 00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,320 Speaker 2: and then you know, it jumped up to the seventeen, 782 00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:39,560 Speaker 2: whereas some of these other ones where he talked about it, 783 00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:43,000 Speaker 2: like the adjustment then you know, went to where my 784 00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:45,120 Speaker 2: number is. This is one where it opened up my 785 00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:48,200 Speaker 2: number and then it jumped up. This is an interesting 786 00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:52,640 Speaker 2: one though, where it's a you know, maybe right now 787 00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:56,000 Speaker 2: it's showing the value you know, in a vacuum is 788 00:39:56,040 --> 00:40:00,360 Speaker 2: on Colorado from where my system is. But and I 789 00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,440 Speaker 2: will say, Colorado's coming off the buy, and Colorado's going 790 00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:07,440 Speaker 2: to be more healthy, right like Travis Hunter should be 791 00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:11,080 Speaker 2: more healthy now, and different stuff like that. You know, 792 00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:12,920 Speaker 2: they were a little bit banged up and they played 793 00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,799 Speaker 2: so many games, you know, and different stuff like that. 794 00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,839 Speaker 2: But before their buy consecutively that that was a part 795 00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:21,600 Speaker 2: of the you know, I think that played a part 796 00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,000 Speaker 2: in the collapse there at the end against against Stanford 797 00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:25,680 Speaker 2: when they were up twenty nine to nothing and a half, 798 00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:29,520 Speaker 2: and you guys know what happened after that. One of 799 00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:32,640 Speaker 2: the problems that I see in this game is UCLA 800 00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:36,760 Speaker 2: in particular, is a horrid, horrid matchup for this Colorado. 801 00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:40,520 Speaker 2: I mean, they're designed essentially like the worst matchup that 802 00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:43,000 Speaker 2: Colorado could have on the field for a couple of 803 00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:47,440 Speaker 2: different reasons. Ucla has an awesome pass defense. They have 804 00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,880 Speaker 2: a really really good secondary, and they have the waves 805 00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:55,000 Speaker 2: of pass rushers so they can get after shadeer and 806 00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:57,960 Speaker 2: they can also leave guys on islands while they're doing 807 00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:02,239 Speaker 2: it to combat the spread offense and the receivers out 808 00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:04,360 Speaker 2: there on the boundary that the Colorado is going to do. 809 00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:08,600 Speaker 2: So I think that's a match as far as at 810 00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:12,440 Speaker 2: least suppressing the scoring a bit of that up tempo 811 00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:14,120 Speaker 2: Colorado pass happy offense. 812 00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:18,160 Speaker 3: And then on the other side, UCLA doesn't have the 813 00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:19,800 Speaker 3: best passing offense. 814 00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,640 Speaker 2: You know, now they've they made that bizarre decision after 815 00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:25,360 Speaker 2: going with Dante Moore out of the gate, which you 816 00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:28,040 Speaker 2: thought was sort of a sacrifice of like, you know, 817 00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,239 Speaker 2: we got the five star kad, let's just roll with 818 00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:31,960 Speaker 2: them in this. We'll take our lumps like we did 819 00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,200 Speaker 2: with Dorian tons of Robinson five years ago. But then 820 00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:37,840 Speaker 2: after doing that out of the gate, now they've decided 821 00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:40,200 Speaker 2: to go back to Ethan Garber's. You know, he's just 822 00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:45,680 Speaker 2: like the veteran caretaker guy. I don't know, I'm not 823 00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:47,680 Speaker 2: really sure what they're doing with that, because you would 824 00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:51,120 Speaker 2: think that now they're sort of risking a Dante Moore transfer, 825 00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:53,759 Speaker 2: but maybe Petrol and Chip Kelly doesn't really care about that. 826 00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:55,719 Speaker 2: I'm not really sure what's going on with that, but 827 00:41:56,360 --> 00:42:01,280 Speaker 2: probably Ethan Garber's raises their ceiling at least year slightly, 828 00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,160 Speaker 2: you would think, because Dante morri has had a couple 829 00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:08,600 Speaker 2: of poor performances this year. But UCLA runs the ball very, 830 00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:11,920 Speaker 2: very very well. They have multiple really good running backs. 831 00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,640 Speaker 2: Carson's field is the tackle breaker, and then they have 832 00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:20,000 Speaker 2: a couple dynamic guys coming off the bench, Hardened being 833 00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:23,000 Speaker 2: one of them, and so like they can do a 834 00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:24,080 Speaker 2: couple different things with that. 835 00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:26,040 Speaker 3: I really like their receiving corps as well. 836 00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:27,400 Speaker 2: So as long as they have the guy that can 837 00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,759 Speaker 2: shuttle those guys the ball and not you know, put 838 00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:33,399 Speaker 2: the ball in danger of the field getting flipped, you're 839 00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:34,200 Speaker 2: doing fine there. 840 00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:36,000 Speaker 3: The caretaker is really all you're looking for. 841 00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:41,000 Speaker 2: So this Colorado defense that is not good at stopping 842 00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:44,840 Speaker 2: the run whatsoever, Carson Steele should have a field day there. Again, 843 00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:48,120 Speaker 2: my systems showing a point and a half to maybe 844 00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:50,880 Speaker 2: two points of line value here, but again bad matchup 845 00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:54,320 Speaker 2: for Colorado even coming off to buy probably not something 846 00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:56,160 Speaker 2: that I'm looking to bet right now. I will get 847 00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,480 Speaker 2: into the handicap more this week, see if Colorado the 848 00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:03,040 Speaker 2: hell staff is there and everything like that. But yeah, 849 00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:05,200 Speaker 2: not a bet for me early on and and and 850 00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:06,880 Speaker 2: again bad match for carrad. 851 00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:09,359 Speaker 1: All right, we do have a couple extras here. These 852 00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:13,560 Speaker 1: were some adjusted lines from thor that popped out. I'm 853 00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,319 Speaker 1: gonna I'll just go in little groups of two. There's 854 00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:17,719 Speaker 1: actually five, but I'll go two to one. Iowa State 855 00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:20,440 Speaker 1: and Baylor jumped out as one that you specifically quickly 856 00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:22,520 Speaker 1: wanted to talk about or make sure that was like 857 00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:24,560 Speaker 1: the one if we talked about any in West Virginia 858 00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:27,359 Speaker 1: and UCF. So do you want to hit on some 859 00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:29,520 Speaker 1: of the adjusted line value that's sitting out there for 860 00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:30,240 Speaker 1: both those games. 861 00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:30,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll talk. 862 00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:32,720 Speaker 2: We'll take them one at a time that I always 863 00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:36,279 Speaker 2: stay Baylor one. Uh, Baylor opened at minus one and 864 00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:39,920 Speaker 2: a half today and my right before we went on 865 00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:41,759 Speaker 2: today when I was I was telling you we got 866 00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:44,480 Speaker 2: to talk about this one literally right before we went 867 00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:47,440 Speaker 2: on the record, and my book then it was it 868 00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:50,960 Speaker 2: finally posted at one of the ones that I'm on, 869 00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:54,279 Speaker 2: and it was Baylor minus one at that point, and 870 00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:56,720 Speaker 2: so I tried to put in my bed for Iowa 871 00:43:56,800 --> 00:44:00,200 Speaker 2: State plus one, and the book took it down. 872 00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:01,319 Speaker 3: Before like it popped up. 873 00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,640 Speaker 2: I tried to put it in, it took it down 874 00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,279 Speaker 2: so I couldn't bet it whatnot. And it has not 875 00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,360 Speaker 2: They've not put it back up, and I'm furious about 876 00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,759 Speaker 2: it because I think by the time they put it 877 00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:14,200 Speaker 2: back up, it's like I'm not going to get the 878 00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,759 Speaker 2: the value that I want. And my line on that 879 00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:18,919 Speaker 2: one is I al would say minus three point eight. 880 00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:22,160 Speaker 2: I think that line is badly off, and I think 881 00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:25,360 Speaker 2: that's why they they took it down so fast. I 882 00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:28,040 Speaker 2: think they realized they made a mistake, and every you know, 883 00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:30,160 Speaker 2: when they're putting it up, they're they're getting hit on 884 00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:33,000 Speaker 2: that side. I always say should like I said, I 885 00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,040 Speaker 2: always say it should be favored by three three point 886 00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:38,719 Speaker 2: five four. That's just qualitatively in a vacuum. I always 887 00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:42,279 Speaker 2: say that's how much they're better than Baylor. But beyond that, 888 00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:46,320 Speaker 2: this is a really, really, really bad matchup for Baylor. Baylor, 889 00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:50,120 Speaker 2: their worst thing is their offensive line. Their offensive line 890 00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:54,239 Speaker 2: is horrid. It's like bottom of the Power five kind 891 00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:58,400 Speaker 2: of bad, uh like like like like bottom of the 892 00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:01,920 Speaker 2: G five kind of bad. What I'm talking about Iowa State. 893 00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:05,359 Speaker 2: There better thing is their front seven. They are going 894 00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:08,160 Speaker 2: to create all kinds of havoc in this game. It 895 00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:10,600 Speaker 2: goes without saying that Baylor is not going to run 896 00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:13,120 Speaker 2: in this game, so all of the pressure is going 897 00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:15,359 Speaker 2: to be on Blake Shape. And and as I've talked 898 00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:18,320 Speaker 2: about numerous times this fall, Baylor's receiving corps. 899 00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:19,200 Speaker 3: Is not good. 900 00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,520 Speaker 2: So I mean, like, how does Baylor remain viable in 901 00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:25,440 Speaker 2: this game where it's Blake Shaping's back there and Iowa 902 00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:28,759 Speaker 2: State It's defense is good. Iowa States offense isn't great, 903 00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:30,919 Speaker 2: but the Baylor defense is way way down. 904 00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:32,359 Speaker 3: It just is what it is. 905 00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:34,640 Speaker 2: So I mean, like, iways say It's going to be 906 00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:37,760 Speaker 2: able to carve out enough offense here that the scoring 907 00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:39,759 Speaker 2: of this game is going to be suppressed. But I 908 00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,919 Speaker 2: would be surprised if Iowa State does not win this game. 909 00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:45,680 Speaker 2: Iowa State that we made fun of them over the summer. 910 00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:48,760 Speaker 2: They got hit with the gambling stuff and they lost 911 00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:52,160 Speaker 2: the guys, and then in September the Iowa State fans 912 00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:54,359 Speaker 2: were clowning Matt Campbell. He was on the hot seat 913 00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:59,959 Speaker 2: everything like that. Iowa State has very quietly turned things around, 914 00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:04,160 Speaker 2: and they are higher up there in the Big Twelve standings. 915 00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:05,520 Speaker 3: I think then people realize. 916 00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:10,080 Speaker 2: In fact, I don't exactly know the tiebreaker, but someone 917 00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:13,000 Speaker 2: told me this on the phone before earlier today. Don't 918 00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:14,920 Speaker 2: quote me on this, because again I don't know the 919 00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:17,839 Speaker 2: tie breaker, but somebody on the phone earlier today told 920 00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:20,960 Speaker 2: me that if the season ended right this second, Iowa 921 00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:23,920 Speaker 2: State would be in the Big Twelve championship game. Again, 922 00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:27,000 Speaker 2: I don't know the tie breakers, but Oklahoma, Oklahoma is 923 00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:30,120 Speaker 2: four and oh the three. I'm sorry, there's four three 924 00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:31,640 Speaker 2: and one teams in the Big Twelve right now. It's 925 00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:34,960 Speaker 2: Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas State. But you know, 926 00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:37,719 Speaker 2: either way, Iowa State is up there, higher in the 927 00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:41,920 Speaker 2: hierarchy than people realize. Right now, Baylor stinks they are 928 00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:45,120 Speaker 2: near the bottom qualitatively in the Big Twelve. Again, bad 929 00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:48,920 Speaker 2: matchup for Baylor. I like Iowa State all day. They 930 00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:51,160 Speaker 2: will be one of my better bets this week. All 931 00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:53,759 Speaker 2: the line value is there right now. By kickoff, this 932 00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:56,879 Speaker 2: thing is going to be Iowa State minus at least three, 933 00:46:57,200 --> 00:47:00,000 Speaker 2: I would guess closer to four. Get on the cyclones 934 00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:02,680 Speaker 2: right now while you're getting the gift of them being an. 935 00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:05,640 Speaker 1: Underdog, and what were your thoughts on the West Virginia 936 00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:06,880 Speaker 1: and UCF game. 937 00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:10,439 Speaker 2: That one the market hasn't caught up to UCF getting 938 00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:12,839 Speaker 2: John Rice Plumbley back. We talked about this last week 939 00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:16,120 Speaker 2: in the handicap of the Oklahoma game, where you know, 940 00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,440 Speaker 2: all week long you could get UCF plus nineteen or 941 00:47:19,520 --> 00:47:21,640 Speaker 2: eighteen and a half, and it wasn't all the way 942 00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:24,239 Speaker 2: up until the day of the game where it was 943 00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:26,719 Speaker 2: like people started to get that a little bit more, 944 00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:28,680 Speaker 2: and then it dropped to seventeen and a half and 945 00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:30,880 Speaker 2: I think by kick off it was finally down to seventeen. 946 00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,200 Speaker 2: But either way, any line you got it was a gift. 947 00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:36,160 Speaker 2: UCF actually had a shot at the end of that 948 00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:38,960 Speaker 2: game to force overtime. They scored the touchdown at the 949 00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:40,719 Speaker 2: very end, and then they had the two point conversion 950 00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:46,160 Speaker 2: to force overtime. They had a stupid two point conversion 951 00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:49,200 Speaker 2: play called they profiled as a team that should be 952 00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:51,200 Speaker 2: like the best two point conversion team of all time, 953 00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:55,160 Speaker 2: because like, nobody gets three plus yard games at a 954 00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:58,480 Speaker 2: better clip than UCF in their regular offense, but they 955 00:47:58,520 --> 00:48:00,839 Speaker 2: just call like the dumbest two point version plays. Ever, 956 00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:04,080 Speaker 2: I don't get it, like where they do like the 957 00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:07,239 Speaker 2: motion stuff and then they always have the ball going backwards. 958 00:48:07,760 --> 00:48:10,480 Speaker 2: It's like, just do the stuff you usually do, Gus, 959 00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:14,320 Speaker 2: like stop stop this. But anyhow, in this one, it's 960 00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:16,200 Speaker 2: the same sort of deal where this line opens at 961 00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:18,320 Speaker 2: under a touchdown six and a half. 962 00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:20,080 Speaker 3: Even though UCF is at home. 963 00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:24,799 Speaker 2: They're clearly better now than they've been this season up 964 00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:26,919 Speaker 2: to now, outside of the first two weeks when John 965 00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:31,120 Speaker 2: Rice Plumbley was healthy right like the other weeks in 966 00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:33,879 Speaker 2: between them that were in the middle of that they 967 00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:37,239 Speaker 2: did not have John Rice Plumbley, but now he's back. 968 00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:40,200 Speaker 2: And then West Virginia on the other side, appears to 969 00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:42,600 Speaker 2: be a bit in the tank after allowing that Hail 970 00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:46,360 Speaker 2: Mary to Houston. They appear to be a bit in 971 00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:48,879 Speaker 2: their head over the weekend. My line on this game 972 00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:52,080 Speaker 2: is UCF minus ten point two. I think you're getting 973 00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:55,040 Speaker 2: a free four points and over multiple key numbers there. 974 00:48:55,600 --> 00:48:58,600 Speaker 2: If you can get this thing under a touchdown, you 975 00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:01,200 Speaker 2: absolutely take that one. I think UCF is going to 976 00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:03,279 Speaker 2: run all over West Virginia. I think they can hit 977 00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:07,960 Speaker 2: the explosive downfield shots as well. Easy scenario there in 978 00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:09,799 Speaker 2: my opinion that UCF could win that one by two 979 00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:10,560 Speaker 2: touchdowns or more. 980 00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:14,480 Speaker 1: Just super quick hitter ten cent tour three others you 981 00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:18,160 Speaker 1: had Notre Dame, pit, Boston College, Yukon in Miami, Ohio, Ohio. 982 00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:20,080 Speaker 1: There was some line value there. Just give us a 983 00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:22,440 Speaker 1: ten cent tour on those three real quick. 984 00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:24,799 Speaker 2: Okay, we got to go one at a time because 985 00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:27,680 Speaker 2: I can't. I can't do the three times quick one. Yeah, 986 00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:31,960 Speaker 2: the pitt is the terrible team that couldn't beat the 987 00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:34,520 Speaker 2: third string converted safety awake. Four is my line on 988 00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:36,879 Speaker 2: that is twenty point five. It's seventeen and a half 989 00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:39,400 Speaker 2: right now. The value there is on Notre Dame if 990 00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:41,840 Speaker 2: they can't punk them by three touchdowns, I don't know 991 00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:42,680 Speaker 2: what we're doing there. 992 00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:47,239 Speaker 1: Boston College, Yukon, Boston, people. 993 00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:50,120 Speaker 3: Haven't caught up to that. Boston College has got has 994 00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:50,880 Speaker 3: been solid. 995 00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:53,760 Speaker 2: Like the first game they lost to NIU, the second 996 00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:57,040 Speaker 2: game they almost got upset by an FCS team. Boston 997 00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:59,719 Speaker 2: College since then has turned into the solid team that 998 00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:02,719 Speaker 2: I think they were over the summer. Just look at 999 00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:05,399 Speaker 2: their schedule, like what their body of work since then. 1000 00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:08,520 Speaker 2: They now they have this winning streak that they're working 1001 00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:12,120 Speaker 2: on that team is finally coalesce again. The market is 1002 00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:14,360 Speaker 2: not caught up to that. We have line value again 1003 00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:17,840 Speaker 2: on that. That's an early week fire for me and Yukon. 1004 00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:20,600 Speaker 2: They're still getting a weird bit of credit for last 1005 00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:24,120 Speaker 2: year's this surprise Bowl thing that Jim Mora brought them to. 1006 00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:27,319 Speaker 2: Line right now is twelve. My adjusted line on that 1007 00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:31,000 Speaker 2: is Boston College minus fourteen point two. If you're hearing 1008 00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:34,560 Speaker 2: this and it's still beneath two touchdowns when you're hearing this, 1009 00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:36,279 Speaker 2: fire on Boston. 1010 00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:37,239 Speaker 3: College would be my recommendation. 1011 00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:38,920 Speaker 1: Well, I love that all right. Then final one was 1012 00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,880 Speaker 1: that Miami Ohio Ohio some action. 1013 00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:42,879 Speaker 3: Yeah. 1014 00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:46,200 Speaker 2: I misfired on Miami of Ohio last week against Toledo, 1015 00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:49,279 Speaker 2: getting a couple points at home, mostly because Miami of 1016 00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:53,440 Speaker 2: Ohio started slowing that game against Toledo. They finished strong though, 1017 00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:57,640 Speaker 2: and almost pulled off the comeback. They didn't. They ran 1018 00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:00,000 Speaker 2: out of Time's basically what happened on the back end 1019 00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:01,640 Speaker 2: of it. In the last by it was a four 1020 00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:06,000 Speaker 2: or something like that. This game though, they against Ohio 1021 00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:08,080 Speaker 2: here they're going on the road to this one, but 1022 00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:10,840 Speaker 2: this line opened up Ohio minus four and a half. 1023 00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:15,440 Speaker 2: My line on it is Ohio minus one point six Ohio. 1024 00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:18,680 Speaker 2: They have been playing with their food as well, sort 1025 00:51:18,719 --> 00:51:21,120 Speaker 2: of like the Toledo team playing with fire, playing with fire, 1026 00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:25,280 Speaker 2: playing with fire. Miami of Ohio, for you know, despite 1027 00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:27,799 Speaker 2: the fact that they lost last week, again competed until 1028 00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:30,239 Speaker 2: the very end, and I think if that game had 1029 00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:32,640 Speaker 2: been extended by ten minutes, I think you would have 1030 00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:34,280 Speaker 2: seen a different team win that game. 1031 00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:36,239 Speaker 3: I think Miami of Ohio. 1032 00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:40,799 Speaker 2: Is extremely viable in this game as well, and I 1033 00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:42,759 Speaker 2: think this game should be closer to a pick them 1034 00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:44,480 Speaker 2: than it is. So if you're gonna give me four 1035 00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:46,440 Speaker 2: and a half, that's I'm gonna take those points. And 1036 00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:48,240 Speaker 2: this is one where it's over a field goal, whereas 1037 00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:50,480 Speaker 2: last week, you know, we only got the two, but 1038 00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:51,720 Speaker 2: I'm gonna take those points. 1039 00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:53,920 Speaker 1: I love it. Well. We got more content for you 1040 00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:57,080 Speaker 1: all week long bettingpros dot Com, slash YouTube. Make sure 1041 00:51:57,120 --> 00:51:59,000 Speaker 1: you guys are locked in. We got the midweek show, 1042 00:51:59,200 --> 00:52:01,879 Speaker 1: We've got the Saturday show, Thor and Mike Farrell ten 1043 00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:04,520 Speaker 1: am Eastern to get you live on all those things. 1044 00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:07,279 Speaker 1: Bogging myself and Mike Farrell have been doing a little 1045 00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:09,040 Speaker 1: bit of the midweek show. I believe Thor is back, 1046 00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:11,640 Speaker 1: not this week but next week on the on the 1047 00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:13,520 Speaker 1: MIDWEK show, so make sure you're locked there. You can 1048 00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:16,640 Speaker 1: find Thor on Twitter at thor Ku and download the 1049 00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:18,960 Speaker 1: Betting Pros app because then you can track all of 1050 00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,160 Speaker 1: us where all of our bets are, so you don't 1051 00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:23,160 Speaker 1: miss any of it, you know, for not doing a 1052 00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:26,560 Speaker 1: show live for you, that's Thor. I'm Welsh on Twitter 1053 00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:28,080 Speaker 1: at is it Welsh. Thank you guys so much for 1054 00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:30,440 Speaker 1: hanging out. Good luck good luck in week nine and 1055 00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:32,560 Speaker 1: we'll talk to you next time right here on Betting 1056 00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:36,320 Speaker 1: Pros by friends. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. 1057 00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:39,279 Speaker 2: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros at 1058 00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,120 Speaker 2: Instagram at betting Pros NFL. 1059 00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:42,600 Speaker 1: Also subscribe to our 1060 00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:45,520 Speaker 3: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros