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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome back to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Pat Fitzmorris, joined as always by Beau McBrayer. The

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Speaker 1: PGA Tour go south of the border this week and

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Speaker 1: we are going to be previewing the Mexico Open at Vedanta,

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Speaker 1: letting you know which players were betting and why. We

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Speaker 1: will give you our one and done picks at the

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Speaker 1: end of this show, and we're also going to recap

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Speaker 1: the entertaining but also very painful Genesis Invitational for you.

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Speaker 1: This show is sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. You're probably familiar

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Speaker 1: with Underdog's outstanding bestball contests for fantasy football, but Underdog

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Speaker 1: also has golf contests. Sign up for Underdog if you

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Speaker 1: haven't already with the promo code b P Golf to

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Speaker 1: get your first deposit matched up to one hundred dollars.

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Speaker 1: Plus there's a special pick available for you in the lobby.

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Speaker 1: More on Underdog and its golf contest later in the show.

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Speaker 1: Bo there was a movie back in the nineteen eighty

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Speaker 1: that I enjoyed called To Live and Die in La

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Speaker 1: I think it starred Willem Dafoe and William Peterson. The

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Speaker 1: title pretty much sums up our Sunday at the Genesis

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Speaker 1: Invitational at Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles. Patrick Cantley

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Speaker 1: led this tournament by five shots going into the weekend.

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Speaker 1: Can't Lay played sort of in different round on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: going one under par on the day. That opened the

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Speaker 1: door for some other people, and it looked like either

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Speaker 1: Luke List or Will Zalatoris might win it. On Sunday, Bo,

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Speaker 1: you were very much in Unlist last week. I piggybacked

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Speaker 1: you and made a bet on him outright at one

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Speaker 1: hundred and ten to one. I also threw a little

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Speaker 1: something on Xalatoris at fifty five to one, and List

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Speaker 1: in particular had this golden opportunity. He made the turn

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Speaker 1: on Sunday at I think he was minus sixteen something

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Speaker 1: like that. He had a two fifteen to two shot lead,

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Speaker 1: and then he came to the devilish little par four

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Speaker 1: tenth that we spent so much time talking about on

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Speaker 1: last week's show, one of my favorite holes in the world.

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Speaker 1: Not a great hole for List. On Sunday, he put

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Speaker 1: it in the one place you just can't afford to

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Speaker 1: put it, a bunker short right, which just makes for

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Speaker 1: an impossible approach did really well to get it at

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Speaker 1: the base of the green, but that left a long

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Speaker 1: lag pot. List not known as a great putter, left

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Speaker 1: that uphill lag put about ten v short and couldn't

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Speaker 1: make the par pot and it just seemed like that

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Speaker 1: sapped all of his momentum. Meanwhile, Hedeki Matsuyama was absolutely cooking.

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Speaker 1: He opened the round with three straight birdies, then just

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Speaker 1: seized the tournament by the throat on the back nine

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Speaker 1: with a six under par thirty. On the fifteenth hole,

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Speaker 1: along par four, Matsuyama hits his one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 1: nine yard approach shot to eight inches, and on the

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Speaker 1: next hole, par three, sixteen, he hits it to six

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Speaker 1: inches and bo I had stepped away from the TV

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Speaker 1: come back to see what I thought was a replay

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Speaker 1: of his approach on fifteen. No was his approach or

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Speaker 1: his t shot on sixteen that basically finished the same

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Speaker 1: tap in distance away on the same side of the cup,

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Speaker 1: so he for good measure, matsu Yama birdi's the par

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Speaker 1: five seventeenth and ends up winning by three shots, tying

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Speaker 1: the course record. Bo Your thoughts on the tournaments Hideki's

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Speaker 1: sublime Sunday a very shrewd wager on Luke List that

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Speaker 1: just didn't quite pan out. And anything else about the

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Speaker 1: Genesis Invitational that comes to mind.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Riviera, the back nine especially very unforgiving. You had

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Speaker 2: to be precise off the tee, especially to give yourself

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Speaker 2: a chance to have a decent approach angle. Matsuyama was masterful.

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Speaker 2: He hit all the fairways. He made some clutch part

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Speaker 2: saves on the end at the end of his front

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Speaker 2: nine that really gathered momentum for that historic We're no

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Speaker 2: hyperbole at all here, historic back nine on one of

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Speaker 2: the toughest back nines on the entire PGA tour. And

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Speaker 2: to be six under with three separate three birdie streaks

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Speaker 2: during that final round of sixty two to nine hunder

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Speaker 2: par one off of the course record. It was a

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Speaker 2: tournament record. It was the lowest round, lowest final round

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Speaker 2: ever at the at the Genesis, unbelievable round. Luke List

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Speaker 2: had all the momentum as he made the turn. He

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Speaker 2: had himself a nice birdie streak on the front nine.

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Speaker 2: He couldn't quite get it all together. He had three

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Speaker 2: consecutive fives after five consecutive threes on the front nine,

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Speaker 2: and it was that was curtains for him once he

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Speaker 2: missed a couple of fairways. He didn't have the juice.

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Speaker 2: He was struggling to make pars. Nobody else was doing

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Speaker 2: a little bit better. It was just a horrendous finish,

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Speaker 2: especially with how confident we were at the turn there.

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Speaker 2: One hundred and ten to one would have been extremely nice.

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Speaker 2: I didn't get shut out though I had. I had

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Speaker 2: the top twenty bet on Luke List, I had some

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Speaker 2: I had top top ten bet on Will's Alataurus. It

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Speaker 2: turned out okay. I didn't get completely washed out with

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Speaker 2: the disappointing finish, but yeah, it would have been really

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Speaker 2: nice to have one hundred and ten to one deposited

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Speaker 2: right into the bank roll. But we'll get them this week, right, right, Pat, Right?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm hoping so bo. I mean, I did cash

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Speaker 1: in a DFS tournament and you know, didn't get those

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Speaker 1: outrights that I was looking for, those juicy outrights. One

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Speaker 1: of those would have been really nice. But yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean it seems like we're moving in the right direction though,

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Speaker 1: after you know, all those long shots that we were

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Speaker 1: just not going to hit. So before we moved to

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Speaker 1: the Mexico open bo. Let me ask you this about

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Speaker 1: the final Sunday pairing Patrick Cantley and Xander Schoffley, good friends,

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Speaker 1: Ryder Cup partners, Southern California Natives. It just seemed like

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Speaker 1: the stage was set for them on Sunday to have

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Speaker 1: some sort of memorable head to head duel, and they

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Speaker 1: wound up as kind of sidelights on Sunday. And it

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Speaker 1: was odd because Cantlay had that massive lead he was

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Speaker 1: if you wanted to bet him after his round on Friday,

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Speaker 1: after he had opened with a sixty four and a

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Speaker 1: sixty five, it was minus one sixty five to bet

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Speaker 1: Patrick Cantley to win after Friday's round. So, yeah, exactly,

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Speaker 1: So things didn't go well for him on the weekend.

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Speaker 1: Schaffley shot a sixty five on Saturday to get himself

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Speaker 1: into contention, but then gets off to a real luggish

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Speaker 1: start on Sunday. No birdie's on the front nine, shoots

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Speaker 1: one over, then he gets cooking on the back nine

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Speaker 1: with a birdie on ten and an eagle on eleven,

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Speaker 1: proceeds to go bogie bogie bogie on twelve through fourteen,

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Speaker 1: and suddenly, after being in a five way tie for

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Speaker 1: the lead, he was right out of contention again. So

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Speaker 1: my question for you is this bow, with the way

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Speaker 1: Canty and Shoffley just sort of wilted on Sunday, do

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Speaker 1: you have any qualms about betting either of those guys

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Speaker 1: in the weeks to come.

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Speaker 2: None whatsoever. And we have to give them credit for

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Speaker 2: especially Can'tley. With his first thirty six holes, it looked

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Speaker 2: like if he was able to even just hold serve,

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Speaker 2: which he did relatively well for most of the most

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Speaker 2: of the weekend, he was still in it all the

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Speaker 2: way to the bitter end. But the fact that moving

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Speaker 2: Day went by and he didn't make any real strides

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Speaker 2: on the field, in fact, he let them back into

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Speaker 2: a Sunday finish, that was disappointing for him. But I

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Speaker 2: think with both of those guys is they they had

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Speaker 2: Hitdeki Matsuyama a few holes ahead of them post a

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Speaker 2: crazy low number, like an unheard of number at Riviera.

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Speaker 2: That's really what happened is he had that clubhouse lead

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Speaker 2: and they they could feel that momentum slipping away. And

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Speaker 2: if you're going to be aggressive on the back night

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Speaker 2: at Riviera, you better be hitting fairways because if you're

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Speaker 2: you're trying to be aggressive out of that rough or

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Speaker 2: out of greenside bunkers. Uh, there's no green to work

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Speaker 2: with on a lot of those a lot of those shots.

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Speaker 2: They ended up having that aggression turn against them at

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Speaker 2: the very end, just trying to catch up with Matsiyama.

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Speaker 2: I think that's really what happened, is they were forced

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Speaker 2: into a game plan that wasn't what they envisioned for

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Speaker 2: that back nine, and it just it it chewed him up.

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Speaker 2: They didn't they didn't finish well because they got chewed up.

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Speaker 2: And I thought Xander had a really good shot once

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Speaker 2: he hold out for eagle from the bunker on eleven,

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Speaker 2: But after that, as we saw, he missed the fairways

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Speaker 2: on all three of those holes, missed the greens and

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Speaker 2: just couldn't put, couldn't scramble. This course is brutally tough

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Speaker 2: if you're not in play, and all the guys except

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Speaker 2: for Matsiyama, seemed to really struggle with trying to hold

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Speaker 2: serve with an immaculate round. So all the flowers, all

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Speaker 2: the kudos to Hideki. That's I mean, that's that's what

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Speaker 2: championship golf is all about. Some guy's going to come

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Speaker 2: out there and win the tournament, and it's up to

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Speaker 2: the other guys to try to catch him, and nobody

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Speaker 2: was going to catch Hideki on Sunday. That was just

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Speaker 2: how good his round was. So I don't have any

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Speaker 2: qualms about the future of Can't Lay or Shaftley because

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Speaker 2: they're both top ten world class golfers that are going

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Speaker 2: to be in the mix most weeks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Can't Lay and Schoffle, those guys could not have

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Speaker 1: found more sand if they had gone to Venice Beach

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Speaker 1: for the day on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: That was probably still shaking it out of their shoes.

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Speaker 1: Now we will turn our attention to the Mexico Open

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Speaker 1: at Vedanta in a minute, but first go sign yourself

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Speaker 1: up with our friends at Underdog, where you can make

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Speaker 1: picks on your favorite golfers all season long. Just pick

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Speaker 1: higher or lower on selected stats for two to five

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Speaker 1: golfers and you can win up to twenty times your

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Speaker 1: money in a single day. You can also make rivals picks, choosing,

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Speaker 1: for instance, which of two golfers will shoot a better

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Speaker 1: score in a round. Golf picks can also be combined

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Speaker 1: with player stats from other sports, so be sure to

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Speaker 1: go sign up at underdog and start making those golf selections.

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Speaker 1: The Mexico Open at Vedanta will have a relatively weak

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Speaker 1: field bow We've seen some very good fields in recent

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Speaker 1: events at Tory Pines, at Pebble Beach, at Riviera, but

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Speaker 1: a lot of the top players are taking off this week.

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Speaker 1: So the Mexico Open is going to be played at Vedanta.

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Speaker 1: Velarta a a Greg Norman design. It's a par seventy

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Speaker 1: one covering seven four hundred and fifty six yards, a

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Speaker 1: rather long course when you consider that there are five

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Speaker 1: par threes and a drivable par four, so that means

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Speaker 1: a lot of long par fours and some really long

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Speaker 1: par fives. I think a couple check in at over

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Speaker 1: six hundred yards. On the other hand, generous fair ways,

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Speaker 1: courses pretty flat, the rough not very penal, and conditions

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Speaker 1: should be pretty favorable this week. Temperatures in the eighties,

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Speaker 1: wins under ten miles an hour, no rain, the greens

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Speaker 1: are past pollum. It is a slow, sticky surface, so

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I guess I think the ball kind

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Speaker 1: of sits up on those two so like chipping probably

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Speaker 1: won't be an issue. Not a lot of starly lies.

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Speaker 2: Like bel Croz yeah, approach. If you had too much

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Speaker 2: spin on the ball, it'll spin back for a long way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So maybe this might help the Europeans who are

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Speaker 1: used to those slower greens over on the other side

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Speaker 1: of the pond. Yeah, but driving distance obviously is going

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Speaker 1: to matter a lot here, Bo, and I think long

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Speaker 1: iron play matters a lot too statistically, and yet a

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Speaker 1: pretty easy course overall. I believe it's the eleventh easiest

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Speaker 1: on tour. This is only the third year of this event.

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Speaker 1: Tony fenw is the defending champion. He won this by

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Speaker 1: three shots over John Rahm last year, firing a twenty

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Speaker 1: four under power That was his winning score for final.

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Speaker 1: Brandon Wu finished in third five shots. Back in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two, the inaugural year of this event, Ram was

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Speaker 1: the one who won seventeen under par, one shot ahead

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Speaker 1: of Finale two better. Oh sorry, it was a three

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Speaker 1: way tie for second final Brandon Wu and Kurt Kittayama.

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Speaker 1: So we've got some guys with good track records here, Fenale,

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Speaker 1: the defending chap, Brandon Woo couple of top threes. Bo,

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Speaker 1: give me your brain dump on the Mexico Open. What

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Speaker 1: stands out to you about this course and anyone in

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Speaker 1: the field.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it really is a bomb and gouge type of

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Speaker 2: place that turns into a glorified putting contest because everybody's

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Speaker 2: going to find these fairways. And you're looking at the

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Speaker 2: approach bucket of one hundred and seventy five plus, so

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Speaker 2: where a lot of stat models will break it down

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Speaker 2: one hundred seventy five to two hundred and then the

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Speaker 2: two hundred plus. Those both are going to be important.

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Speaker 2: Most of the par threes are in that one seventy

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Speaker 2: five to two hundred range. Most of the approach I

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Speaker 2: think eleven of the approach distance holes are going to

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Speaker 2: be in that one seventy five plus range. So yes,

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Speaker 2: long iron or mid iron approach is going to be

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Speaker 2: very important. And of course short game and putting, there

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Speaker 2: are a handful of holes here that are in the

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Speaker 2: top fifty most difficult on tour. So it's not just

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Speaker 2: a cakewalk. It's not just a resort style stroll around

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Speaker 2: Porto vr to Mexico. It's it's got some teeth. It's

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Speaker 2: overall easy. You're going to see a score somewhere on

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Speaker 2: twenty underpar, which is on the easier side. But again

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Speaker 2: it's going to be just as important to avoid bogies

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Speaker 2: as it is to make birdies, and so yeah, driving

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Speaker 2: distance makes a difference, especially if you're parlaying that with

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Speaker 2: a good approach game.

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Speaker 1: Now, we'll get to the odds in just a moment,

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Speaker 1: but first, if you want a chance to win a

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Speaker 1: free one year premium Betting Pro subscription, you need to

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now comment

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Speaker 1: below in this video and that's it. We'll be announcing

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Speaker 1: a winner right here on the channel, so make sure

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Speaker 1: to turn on those notifications so you can be alerted

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Speaker 1: when new episodes are up and to claim your prize.

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Speaker 1: The heavy favorite this week is defending champion Tony Fino.

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Speaker 1: He was going off at plus six point fifty as

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Speaker 1: of four pm e Eastern on Monday. On Draft Kings.

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Speaker 1: Nikolai Hogard is plus sixteen hundred, Emiliano Grio is at

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Speaker 1: plus two thousand, Taylor Pendrith and Steven Jaeger plus twenty

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Speaker 1: two hundred, Thomas Dietrie plus twenty five hundred, Torborne Olison

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Speaker 1: plus twenty eight hundred, and Ryan Fox, Keith Mitchell and

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Speaker 1: Patrick Rodgers plus three thousand. Bo We saw Feno turn

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Speaker 1: in an excellent performance here last year. He was in

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Speaker 1: second two years ago. T Degriget Green game generally terrific.

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Speaker 1: But this is a guy who has not always been

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Speaker 1: a great closer on the PGA Tour. How do you

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Speaker 1: feel about him this week at such short odds.

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Speaker 2: I think he's a safe bet to be in the

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Speaker 2: top ten, probably top five. I don't think that he's

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Speaker 2: in the kind of form that it takes for me

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Speaker 2: to really want to bet him at plus six fifty. Honestly,

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Speaker 2: he's playing pretty poorly overall, for at least for his standards.

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Speaker 2: This field is weak. Tony loves this course. It's like

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Speaker 2: the mech Scope and in the Rocket Mortgage Classic in

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Speaker 2: Detroit there seemed to be his two events that he

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Speaker 2: seems to do really well in. But I just can't bet.

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Speaker 2: I can't bet Tony Finow in any event at less

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Speaker 2: than ten to one, So skip him. The odds are

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Speaker 2: too short. He's not in good form. I'm going to

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Speaker 2: go right to Nikolai Hoigard sixteen to one, that twenty

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Speaker 2: two year old Dane. He's got lots of firepower off

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Speaker 2: the tee. Great great short game. We're talking about If

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Speaker 2: Tony Finow had a short game, his name would be

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Speaker 2: Nikolai Hoigard. This guy's fireworks. He's a rising future star

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Speaker 2: on the PGA Tour, dominant on the DP World Tour

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Speaker 2: the last few years. His brother is actually still doing

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Speaker 2: very well on that. To Erasmus Hoyguard, this is a

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Speaker 2: very talented individual who I think has every bit the

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Speaker 2: talent that would take to win this event. At sixteen

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Speaker 2: to one, that's incredibly a lot better value than Tony

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Speaker 2: Fenow plus six fifty.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Taylor Pendrith, are you also big on him?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Penny Kid, Yeah, number one in my model overall,

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Speaker 2: I don't see any weak spots at least of the

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Speaker 2: stats that I'm looking at for separating this field into

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Speaker 2: a group of players that I'm going to be drilling

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Speaker 2: down to for my final betting slip. Pendrith number one

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Speaker 2: in my model goes a long way. I tried to

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Speaker 2: work at different ways to try to kick him off

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Speaker 2: of that number one spot. It didn't work. He's solid

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Speaker 2: all around, especially off the tee, and when he hits

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Speaker 2: a hot putter, he makes a lot of birdies and

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Speaker 2: that's what we're looking for this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, how about Steven Yeager hits it a long way.

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Speaker 1: Jga bombs, Jaeger bombs. We saw him. So Actually, Hoyguard

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Speaker 1: and Yaeger both did really well at Tory Pines a

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Speaker 1: few weeks ago. Another course that really sort of demands

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Speaker 1: precision will demands length. I guess off the tee your

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Speaker 1: interesting Yeager perhaps at plus twenty two hundred and one.

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Speaker 2: Thing about Yeger is he's not as exactly the type

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Speaker 2: of birdie maker that I'm looking for, but as as

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Speaker 2: far as talent goes and in recent form, Yeager's in

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Speaker 2: great form right now. And so yeah, of course I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna be looking at him a little closer. Him being

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Speaker 2: kind of the same number as Taylor Pendrith makes it

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Speaker 2: hard for me to favor him over Pendrith. But I

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Speaker 2: guess if I was putting more weight on how well

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Speaker 2: they're playing right now, Jaeger would get the nod. I

316
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Speaker 2: just in my stat model that I start with, Pendrith

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Speaker 2: is by far and away the top golfer overall out

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Speaker 2: of this entire field. And there's a couple guys in

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Speaker 2: this next tier that I would put right next to

320
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Speaker 2: Jaeger myself at better odds.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's run through that next tier. At plus thirty

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Speaker 1: five hundred are Brandon wou with his excellent track record here,

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Speaker 1: Eric Van Ruian, Jake Knapp, and Davis Thompson. At plus

324
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Speaker 1: forty five hundred are Cameron Chanp, Mackenzie Hughes and Riot

325
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Speaker 1: he say soon soon ah. And at plus five thousand

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Speaker 1: we have Mark Hubbard, Justin Sue, Austin Ekrot, and Aaron Raye.

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Speaker 1: Do you like anyone from this group out?

328
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Speaker 2: I like that whole group. It's gonna be really hard

329
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Speaker 2: to drill down. That group is gonna be all in

330
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Speaker 2: my player pool for DFS tournaments. I'm gonna start with Rio.

331
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Speaker 2: HE'SATSUNI at forty to one. Incredibly talented twenty one year

332
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Speaker 2: old Japanese player, another guy that dominated on the DP

333
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 2: World Tour at Asian Tours as a youngster. He's still

334
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:34,119
Speaker 2: a youngster. This guy is a birdie making machine. And again,

335
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Speaker 2: these guys that maybe are not household names at this

336
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,159
Speaker 2: moment right now, they're gonna have their moments this season

337
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 2: where you're gonna see these odds get a lot shorter

338
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,639
Speaker 2: in future events. And I think that Rio is a

339
00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 2: big favorite for me. At forty to one. My overall

340
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,760
Speaker 2: favorite at forty to one is Jake Knapp. Jake Napp

341
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,679
Speaker 2: is a monster off the tee. He is a bomber.

342
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Speaker 2: We're talking the third highest swings ball speed on on

343
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 2: the tour, one hundred and eighty six mile per hour

344
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 2: average ball speed. He could absolutely smash the ball. And

345
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Speaker 2: he's another guy like Hoyguard with an immaculate short game

346
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,200
Speaker 2: and right now his approach game has been on point,

347
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,680
Speaker 2: tied for third at the Farmers and tied for twenty

348
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Speaker 2: third at the Waste Management. This guy's got a lot

349
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,639
Speaker 2: of talent. He's got the flowing blonde locks from SoCal.

350
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,399
Speaker 2: He's fun to watch and his moment is coming very quickly.

351
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:31,880
Speaker 2: He's already a by far favorite to win PGA Tour

352
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:33,640
Speaker 2: Rookie of the Year in twenty twenty four.

353
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that you're touting the youngsters ball. We've

354
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 1: talked about this with Akshay Bachier, like we're we're getting

355
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:45,200
Speaker 1: a good price before that first win, before that breakthrough.

356
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,880
Speaker 1: And he sat sunny twenty one years old. I think

357
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Speaker 1: he's got four international wins already and Nap is what

358
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Speaker 1: twenty two or twenty three, But always he's an older rookie.

359
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 2: Okay, he's twenty nine, but he was one of the

360
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 2: quickest qualifiers through the Corn Fairy Tourist points setup in history.

361
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 2: He won four events on the Corn Fairry Tour last

362
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 2: year and springboarded him right into the status that he

363
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 2: needed to play this season on the PGA Tour as

364
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Speaker 2: a rookie.

365
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 1: He's hot.

366
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Speaker 2: He's hot right now. He's bombing the ball and a

367
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 2: really really good score. That's what he's writing right now.

368
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 1: All right, my bad. He's a late bloomer, though, so

369
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Speaker 1: let's catch him on the opposite twenty one. Let's give

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Speaker 1: him credit.

371
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Speaker 2: He's a really really handsome guy, so he could pass

372
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Speaker 2: for twenty one twenty two.

373
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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk long shots. Bo and I've got

374
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Speaker 1: a couple who kind of interest me. Two are plus

375
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Speaker 1: six thousand, sixty to one. Johnny Vegas, who a big

376
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Speaker 1: hitter who can get into these hot streaks. I mean, like, yes,

377
00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:01,360
Speaker 1: it's a long shot, without question, but a guy who

378
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Speaker 1: could conceivably win a tournament if he falls into a groove.

379
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:10,119
Speaker 1: Charlie Hoffman, who you know wasn't quite able to carry

380
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:16,679
Speaker 1: the momentum of the Phoenix Waste Management open into Riviera,

381
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 1: but a really good long iron player, and you know,

382
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Speaker 1: like he has played pretty well over the last few weeks.

383
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Speaker 1: And then Scott Stalling's a guy just have a weakness

384
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,880
Speaker 1: for at eighty to one, but a guy who hits

385
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Speaker 1: it a long way and maybe if he can recapture

386
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 1: the magic from like ten years ago, could could maybe

387
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 1: find himself in the hunt. What about you, any long

388
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 1: shots capture your fancy?

389
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 2: Yeah? I looked at Johnny Vegas myself. Unfortunately, he has

390
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 2: no short game to speak of. He's one of the

391
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,120
Speaker 2: worst putters on tour, so he needs to get hot

392
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 2: if he wants to make some noise here. But Michael

393
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 2: Kim at fifty five to one is very appealing to me.

394
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 2: Second in this field, and birdie's are better gained, which

395
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 2: is the top metric in my weighted model. And then

396
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:06,639
Speaker 2: he's also number five in this entire field for that

397
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 2: one seventy five to two hundred approach distance. So we're

398
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 2: looking at a guy who can make birdies. He's great

399
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 2: on approach at the distances that he's going to be

400
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 2: demanded in on this golf course at Vedanta. So Michael

401
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 2: Kim fifty five to one, and then I'm going young

402
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 2: bombers all the way through the long shots. I'm going

403
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 2: to do a buckshot approach, some smaller bets on Garrett Hego,

404
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 2: the South African unbelievably long player. He's also the best

405
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 2: putter in this field, which is unbelievably. It's like you

406
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,439
Speaker 2: wouldn't think that the long hitter guy would be one

407
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,359
Speaker 2: of the top five putters in this field.

408
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 1: But Garret he Go.

409
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 2: Ben Coles kind of a more of a late bloomer

410
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 2: like Jake Napp, not having quite the success as a

411
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 2: rookie as Nap quite yet, but I think that's coming.

412
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 2: He comes in really high in my model, and that

413
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 2: he's at one hundred and thirty to one, and then

414
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 2: Eric Barnes, another bomber, one hundred and eighty to one.

415
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 2: All this talent down on the board that I've been

416
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 2: excited to watch. I loved watching them all golf on

417
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,639
Speaker 2: the corn Ferry Tour or in collegiate golf now that

418
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 2: they were PGA Tour rookies, or they're getting their spots

419
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 2: starts on tour at Mexico and Puerto Rico and all

420
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 2: these lesser events where the big shots are staying home

421
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 2: and they're not flying their private jets out of Florida.

422
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 2: It opens the door of opportunity for these guys to

423
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 2: make it themselves a household name. So look for all

424
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 2: of those guys, Garrett Hego, Ben Coles, Eric Barnes.

425
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of young hungry dudes in the Mexico Open.

426
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 1: What do you have on your betting cards so far, Paul,

427
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 1: let's run down the list.

428
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 2: So I got outright full unit bets on Hoyguard and Pendrith.

429
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 2: I have half unit bets on Hesatsuni, Nap and Kim

430
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,880
Speaker 2: with top twenty kickers on both of those, and then

431
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:03,159
Speaker 2: top forty bets on Hego, Cole's and Barnes, and of

432
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 2: course a little a couple bucks on each one of

433
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 2: them to win out right, just in case we catch

434
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 2: lightning at a bottle.

435
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I wanted to back the horses for courses,

436
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: but I didn't want to take Tony Fenow or Brandon

437
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 1: Wu for wins. So I bet Tony Fenow top five

438
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 1: at plus one eighty, and I bet Brandon Wu top

439
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 1: ten at plus three sixty. Figure. That gives me a

440
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 1: little bit of cushion, Like you said, I've yeah, kind

441
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 1: of the same reservations about feenw that you do. But

442
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 1: top top five seems like a pretty solid bet. Bets

443
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 1: outright on Taylor Pendrith and Steven Jaeger, and then small

444
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 1: outright bets so far on Johnny Vegas, Charlie Hoffman and

445
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 1: Scott Stallings. Let's get to our one and done picks. BO.

446
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 1: Last week, I took Adam Scott normally does well at Riviera,

447
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 1: tied for nineteenth, not bad, good for two thousand or

448
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 1: excuse me, two hundred and fifty one thousand and four

449
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 1: hundred dollars. BO. You took Max Homa, another guy with

450
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 1: a pretty good track record at Riviera tied for sixteenth,

451
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 1: good for three hundred and twenty nine thousand dollars. So

452
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 1: you extend your lead and you are up first this week, BO,

453
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 1: who do you like? We talked about this the elevated events.

454
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 1: You had what one shot on me and it was

455
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,639
Speaker 1: worth almost one hundred thousand dollars.

456
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, one stroke? One stroke means a big difference. And

457
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 2: I believe it's the fifth time I've hit six figures

458
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,879
Speaker 2: in a week. So let's keep the good times rolling.

459
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 2: And even though I had the fur the I had

460
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 2: the Honors this week. I didn't want to just go

461
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 2: out and take the low hanging fruit of Tony Finow.

462
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 2: I don't feel that strongly about him, But I do

463
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 2: feel very strongly about Jake Knapp. That's my one and

464
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:51,160
Speaker 2: done pick the young Gun. It's risky, it's ballsy, it's

465
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 2: probably a little bit cocky. It's arrogant personified. That's me,

466
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 2: But that's me. I'm gonna go spicy. I'm going with

467
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 2: the young guy that half of these people that are

468
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 2: going to watch the show haven't heard of yet. You

469
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,400
Speaker 2: heard it now, Jake Knapp is going to win this thing,

470
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 2: and you can take your Tony female pick and hopefully

471
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 2: he pulls through with that top five finish that you

472
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 2: desperately need.

473
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 1: Oh I am taking that low hanging Tony Fenwe fruit

474
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: bow and I'm going to make a smoothie out of it.

475
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: And I guess I'll be saving Tony Fenw for you

476
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: in the Rocket Mortgage Classic in a few months down

477
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 1: the road.

478
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 2: So already, just like with Homa at Riviera, I was like,

479
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 2: I was going to play Home at Riviera and I'm

480
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,479
Speaker 2: definitely playing Tony Fenw in Detroit.

481
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:39,880
Speaker 1: Well, that is going to do it For this week's show,

482
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 1: I want to thank our sponsor once again, Underdog Fantasy.

483
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,120
Speaker 1: Sign up for Underdog with the promo code BP Golf

484
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 1: to get your first deposit match up to one hundred

485
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 1: dollars with a special pick for you in the lobby,

486
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 1: and please come join Bow and I again next week

487
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 1: when we will be previewing the Cognizant Classic as the

488
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 1: tour goes back to Florida. Until then, so long everyone,

489
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

490
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 1: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

491
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 1: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

492
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 1: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and

493
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 1: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

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00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 1: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros