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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into BP NFL. I'm your host,

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Speaker 1: Seth Wilcock, and I hope everyone had a very merry Christmas.

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Speaker 1: And because we're still in the holiday spirit, we're combining

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Speaker 1: both our player Props episode with our best bets for

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Speaker 1: Week seventeen. That's right, we're gonna give you our top

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Speaker 1: five plays for the ATS totals and player props markets.

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Speaker 1: And to help me do it. As our resident Holiday Tiermeister,

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Speaker 1: he's Andrew Erickson. Andrew, how is the family's Christmas? And

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Speaker 1: are you expected to get as much inclement weather over

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Speaker 1: the next twenty four hours as we are here in Pennsylvania?

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Speaker 2: I don't think so.

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Speaker 3: I think we are getting some snow again here on

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Speaker 3: Saturday as the weekend kind of rolls in, but not

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Speaker 3: too too much.

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Speaker 2: But who knows. It's win Terrey's New England. You never know.

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Speaker 3: I know, it's just really really cold, which is usally

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Speaker 3: kind of like the precursor to you're about to get

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Speaker 3: bombarded with like a foot of snow. So hey, I

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Speaker 3: got shovels, I got time, so we'll make it happy.

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Speaker 3: We got football on basically every single day you look

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Speaker 3: up and this We're so great time to be alive again,

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Speaker 3: Christmas ton of fun. And I was telling you before

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Speaker 3: we start recording here, I don't know why I just

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Speaker 3: don't continue to just bet blindly bet the underdogs Divisional

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Speaker 3: on Thursdays. I talk about it on every single primer

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Speaker 3: I write, and then I don't even follow through. Sometimes

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Speaker 3: I did.

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Speaker 2: Was on the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: I like them with the thirteen and a half because

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Speaker 3: I just thought, hey, this is the biggest line, but

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Speaker 3: I look up, Okay, Commander's covered check. I mean, Vikings

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Speaker 3: winning outright was just pretty insane, just the way that

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Speaker 3: game played out, how great their defense was. Lions could

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Speaker 3: do anything offensively, neither could the Vikings offense, but it

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Speaker 3: didn't matter because how good their defense was playing. And

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Speaker 3: then Vikings beat the Lions twice this year, both as

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Speaker 3: like monster underdogs. Just you got to I just wish

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Speaker 3: there was more Thursday football, man, because I just keep

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Speaker 3: betting on these underdogs, especially individual games.

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Speaker 1: Well, you would be more rich than I think Netflix

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Speaker 1: would be if that's the case, because I don't know

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Speaker 1: if that was the best investment after seeing the product

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Speaker 1: out on the field. But that's what you get when

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Speaker 1: you you know, buying games for Week seventeen. In the

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Speaker 1: NFL season, you never know what you're gonna get, and

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Speaker 1: it kinnt is true for the gambling streets, right. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we have to constantly keep our head on a swivel

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Speaker 1: this time of the year. We just had news sometime

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Speaker 1: over the holiday break where brock Bowers now and I

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Speaker 1: are done for the rest of the season. So this

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Speaker 1: is a type of shift in shaking that can really

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Speaker 1: transpire and move the lines. Right. We've seen a lot

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Speaker 1: of line movement already this week, and I'm sure we're

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Speaker 1: going to continue to see it throughout the weekend. As well.

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Speaker 1: As noted in today's program, we will be counting down

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Speaker 1: our top bets for the weekend from ten down to one.

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Speaker 1: And if you yourself aren't being a grint to this

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Speaker 1: holiday season, please do a quick favor give this video

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Speaker 1: a thumbs up. Also make sure you're subscribing to the

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Speaker 1: channel if you're new and ericson. Before we dive in,

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Speaker 1: how was the week sixteen betting card from a game

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Speaker 1: bets and player prop perspective, and how are the vibes

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Speaker 1: as we turn the page.

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Speaker 3: Here, the vibes were immaculate last week five and oh

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Speaker 3: a perfect week. I don't know how many five not

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Speaker 3: weeks I've had.

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Speaker 2: It's not that many.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure that you two commenters can let me know

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Speaker 3: that it's probably never happened so far. But yeah, it

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Speaker 3: was really really strong week. So looking to finish the

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Speaker 3: season strong. I am well above five hundred here on

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Speaker 3: the Best Bets Show. Now that's mostly been picks against

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Speaker 3: the spread and the totals. My player props have not

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Speaker 3: been as good on the Prop Show. Actually wasn't even

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Speaker 3: on the Prop Show last week, so I actually probably

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Speaker 3: did most people as solid by not being on the

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Speaker 3: Prop Show, although I did a social short, went three

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Speaker 3: to zero, chased five star bets on the prop bet

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Speaker 3: cheat sheet and they came through. So I got a

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Speaker 3: couple more of those player props here for us today.

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Speaker 3: So feeling good heading into Week seventeen because Week eighteen

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Speaker 3: is going to be so much chaos with team motivations.

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Speaker 3: There's a chance that all of the playoff teams are

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Speaker 3: basically set and it's just seedings that are up for grabs,

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Speaker 3: and some teams might think we could care less where

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Speaker 3: we're seeded. We just want to buy week. So in

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Speaker 3: the NFL's effort to remove teams from resting their players.

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Speaker 3: They've just created a Week eighteen where every team rested

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Speaker 3: their players, particularly one team, the number one seed, actually

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Speaker 3: gets a bye week, where when I was like, well,

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Speaker 3: we'll just take our bye week anyway.

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Speaker 1: So and it's so interesting too because the NFL truly

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Speaker 1: wants them to stop that, because it's all divisional games

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Speaker 1: in Week eighteen, right, Like it's like, hey, you don't

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Speaker 1: have time to rest on your laurels here and go

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Speaker 1: into the playoffs coasting, and you know, we'll see how

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Speaker 1: that affects the betting markets next week. But this really

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Speaker 1: is the last week of a full, fun opportunity to

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Speaker 1: get invested with all the teams that will have their

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Speaker 1: starters up in a full slate for Sunday, even though

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Speaker 1: it's a little bit truncated just because we have some

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Speaker 1: Saturday games also some Thursday games that just went off

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Speaker 1: as well. So one of the last times I really

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Speaker 1: on Week eighteen, like I start kind of really looking

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Speaker 1: at the futures market for what I can get invested

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Speaker 1: with for the playoffs, maybe an award last call for

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Speaker 1: those as well. So ericson, let's go ahead and dive

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Speaker 1: right into the best bets four Week seventeen and keep

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Speaker 1: it here, And now what do you have for us

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Speaker 1: with your fifth best bet?

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Speaker 3: I am going with the Browns to cover the spread

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Speaker 3: here plus three and a half hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers,

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Speaker 3: who may or may not be really playing for anything

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Speaker 3: in this particular game. The Ravens lose against the Green

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Speaker 3: Bay Packers on Saturday, Steelers basically walk everything up in

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Speaker 3: terms of winning the AFC North. Now where they seed

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Speaker 3: is still kind of to be determined, but they're not

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Speaker 3: going to be the number one seed. So it's one

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Speaker 3: of these scenarios where, hey, we just want to make

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Speaker 3: sure we get our guys that are our most important

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Speaker 3: starters to the finish line. So again, it still depends

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Speaker 3: on if the Ravens lose again. Lamar's not gonna play,

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Speaker 3: so it's potential that they lose that game against Green

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Speaker 3: Bay on the road. But besides that, even if the

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Speaker 3: Steelers are playing full force, we want to win this game.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 3: Mike Tomlins seems like that kind of coach where week

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Speaker 3: seventeen we're still gonna be locked. In Week eighteen, maybe

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Speaker 3: we'll take off. I just like get the Browns here

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Speaker 3: at home like they've been one of the best teams

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Speaker 3: in terms of against the spread at home. They are

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Speaker 3: four and one against spread as home underdogs this season.

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Speaker 3: And when you just look at who historically has been

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Speaker 3: one of the best home teams against the spread, it's

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Speaker 3: the Cleveland Browns, It's Pittsburgh Steelers, in the Chicago Bears.

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Speaker 3: What are those things all one of those teams all

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Speaker 3: have in common. It's just like bad weather, cold environments,

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Speaker 3: and usually strong defenses. We have Miles Garrett who is

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Speaker 3: chasing the sack record, and I've also heard kind of

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Speaker 3: rumors where what kind of poetic justice would it be

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Speaker 3: if Mason Rudolph is the quarterback that Miles Garrett sacks

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Speaker 3: to break the all time sack record would just be

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Speaker 3: I mean, you can't write a better Hollywood picture than that, right,

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Speaker 3: So I think the Browns are still going to continue

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Speaker 3: to be motivated here again Shoulder Sanders, he wants to

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Speaker 3: play well because he wants to try to be the

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Speaker 3: Browns quarterback next season.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I like.

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Speaker 3: The Browns here covering the spread. Maybe the Stewers just

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Speaker 3: don't go all out, especially if the Ravens losing. What's

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Speaker 3: interesting about this line too, and depending on when you're

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Speaker 3: listening to this, you can actually parlay the Packers money

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Speaker 3: line with the Browns to cover the spread at plus

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Speaker 3: three and.

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Speaker 2: A half get close to two to one odds.

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Speaker 3: And I do think there's a little bit of correlation

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Speaker 3: there because if green Bay does win, maybe Pittsburgh isn't

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Speaker 3: as motivated to win this game, especially by a field

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Speaker 3: goal or more than a field goal. So give me

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Speaker 3: the Browns three and a half at home. And Brown's

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Speaker 3: been one of my more profitable teams this year betting on,

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Speaker 3: and it's usually when they're home underdogs catching more than

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Speaker 3: a field goal.

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Speaker 1: I'm with you. I've bet a lot of Browns games

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Speaker 1: this season. They finally let me down a few years

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Speaker 1: ago with Jerry Judy dropping would have cleared his reception

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Speaker 1: total in the same game. I also had them over

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Speaker 1: their team total as well, and that did not come through.

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Speaker 1: But I like the correlation here that you're putting out

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Speaker 1: with this play ericson because I originally win the week open,

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Speaker 1: I said, oh, maybe I will back the Steelers because

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Speaker 1: I don't think three and a half points is enough.

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Speaker 1: But then I get a call from my younger brother's

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Speaker 1: point he's like, hey, you know, I can't wait to

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Speaker 1: watch the Steelers game with you on Sunday, going to

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Speaker 1: be in townes see the family. So I was like, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, we might not get the full allotment of players.

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Speaker 1: And he's hoping for Will Howard. He's a big Will

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Speaker 1: Howard guy, so he's hoping to see Will Howard out there.

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Speaker 1: Maybe if it is the Steelers resting some starters and

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Speaker 1: kind of to that point, like right now, you have

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars who are already locked in likely to that

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Speaker 1: three seed, and whether it's them or the Texans, like

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Speaker 1: the Steelers would need that team to lose out basically

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Speaker 1: whoever's coming out of the AFC South to hop them

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Speaker 1: for that three seed. So like if the Ravens lose,

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Speaker 1: I don't think they do have a lot to play for.

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Speaker 1: And like we're already in this reality ericson which feels

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Speaker 1: like a bad dream where our star wide receiver thrown

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Speaker 1: out for the last two regular season games because he

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Speaker 1: was punching a fan, our number one best player, one

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Speaker 1: of the best in franchise history. I'd say TJ. Watt

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Speaker 1: out right now because he's got poked in along with

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Speaker 1: the needles like they're already kind of like sitting in

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Speaker 1: this time where the Steelers like, yes, we're going to

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Speaker 1: the playoffs hopefully, and all vibes are looking high, but

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Speaker 1: it's also a little shaky at the same time. So

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Speaker 1: I don't mind fading them in this spot with with

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Speaker 1: you with the Browns plus three and a half. With

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Speaker 1: my first bet, I'm going to go with an alt play.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Rams all minus six and a half

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Speaker 1: minus one fifty six versus the Falcons. This is the

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Speaker 1: Monday night football game, folks, and I really just want

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Speaker 1: to get back invested with the team that has really

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Speaker 1: been the NFL's best team against the spread this season

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Speaker 1: eleven and four that includes a three to zero ATS

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Speaker 1: record after a loss, two and one on a rest

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Speaker 1: advantage to the number eight and two to the number

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Speaker 1: in non divisional games. And I think that rest advantage

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Speaker 1: is really gonna be key for a Rams team that

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Speaker 1: is led by a thirty seven year old Matthew Stafford.

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Speaker 1: And it also gives this defensive coordinator, Chris Shola, some

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Speaker 1: ample time to prepare for this Falcons offense that has

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Speaker 1: been playing better than I think anyone's been giving them

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Speaker 1: credit for it lately, but I still think it's somewhat

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Speaker 1: predictable from the Falcons offensive standpoint, where his Kirk Cousins,

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Speaker 1: it's a ton of under center work. It's really relying

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Speaker 1: heavily on Beijon Kyle Pitts trying to force feed the

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Speaker 1: ball to Drake Lunnon if he's going to be up

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Speaker 1: for this one as well, which we are expecting him

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Speaker 1: to play again after playing last week. And I also

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Speaker 1: think the Rams like they've been really running the ball up.

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Speaker 1: Blake Corum's seen a ton of action lately. They've been

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Speaker 1: averaging thirty four point seven rushing attempts per game over

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Speaker 1: the last three matchups. They're going to try to control

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Speaker 1: the time possession in this game, relieve. I think the

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Speaker 1: Falcons defense, which is allowing the eighth most yards per

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Speaker 1: game on the ground, could be a little susceptible there

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Speaker 1: to Korum to Kien Williams, and if that doesn't work,

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Speaker 1: I think they can still air it out right like this.

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Speaker 1: He has been a top ten matchup four posting wide

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Speaker 1: receivers over the past month, so I'm expecting Pooka to

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Speaker 1: go buck Wold, Kirk Cousins to choke in prime time

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Speaker 1: once again and the Rams to win by at least

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Speaker 1: a touchdown on this all play, Andrew Erickson, I.

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Speaker 2: Like this one.

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Speaker 3: I am very usually on the Rams when they're on

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Speaker 3: the road as favorites. They're definitely one of the better

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Speaker 3: teams against the spread where they go on the road. Now,

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Speaker 3: the one thing I will say, just as a caveat

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Speaker 3: and you going back to motivations, what are these teams

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Speaker 3: playing for? The Rams are in kind of a weird

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Speaker 3: situation where they are atop the NFC standings and they

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Speaker 3: are playing this is the Monday night game, so they're

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Speaker 3: the last team to play depending on how things shake out.

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Speaker 3: They also may not be not necessarily playing for nothing.

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Speaker 3: But we know that Sean McVay values health more than

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Speaker 3: anything else, Like he doesn't play anyone else in the preseason.

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Speaker 3: So that's something to kind of monitor just in terms of,

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Speaker 3: you know, could he pull a Hodi any and just

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Speaker 3: kind of take Matthew Stafford out right, and because he

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Speaker 3: wants to protect his quarterback going into the postseason, so

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Speaker 3: maybe this one I would just say, maybe you can

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Speaker 3: wait on it a little bit, because I don't think

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Speaker 3: that we're gonna get oh well, gotta take all this

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Speaker 3: money on the Falcons right now? Sure, So that's the

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Speaker 3: thing I would just add a caveat. Again, there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of layers to this week heading into next week,

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Speaker 3: especially with just one team having that by week, So

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Speaker 3: that's something I would keep mind. And that wasn't even

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Speaker 3: something I was thinking about. We talked about it on

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Speaker 3: the Fantasy Pro Show with some of the RAMS players,

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Speaker 3: So that's something to just monitor.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you there. I think it's it's

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Speaker 1: really gonna be up for grab. So because the Niners

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Speaker 1: right now tied with the same record the Seahawks one

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Speaker 1: game above them, so I think it is a little

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Speaker 1: bit more of a cluster. And at the same time, like,

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Speaker 1: do you really think Sean McVay would rest Stafford in

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Speaker 1: the midst of an MVP season, right or at least

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Speaker 1: pull I mean, maybe it's a poll the early type

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Speaker 1: of situation. Maybe they get up on the Falcons and

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Speaker 1: they backdoor them, right, they get in through that back door.

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Speaker 1: That's what I would be afraid of because that has

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Speaker 1: happened to me more than once this season. So hopefully

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Speaker 1: we can just you know, tie that back door shut,

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Speaker 1: make sure, it's you know, we grab the string, tie

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Speaker 1: it to the back door, whatever you gotta do, make

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Speaker 1: sure that thing isn't opening in that win. So, Andrew,

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Speaker 1: let's go to your second play this week. It is

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Speaker 1: your fourth best bet of the week, and it's coming

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Speaker 1: with another team in this very division.

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Speaker 3: Yes, another team in the NFC West playing on the

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Speaker 3: road here actually going to the East Coast, Seattle Seahawks

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Speaker 3: against the Carolina Panthers. Seth betting on the Panthers all

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Speaker 3: of last year, all of this year, and I think

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Speaker 3: I finally cracked the code. It's one of my best

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Speaker 3: bets last week, not for them just to cover, but

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Speaker 3: to beat the Buccaneers outright, and it's because.

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Speaker 2: They were coming off a loss.

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Speaker 3: The Panthers have been undefeated against the spread after losing

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Speaker 3: a game. However, they're two and five against the spread

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Speaker 3: after a win this season. So you got to fade

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Speaker 3: them after they win games, but then you smash them

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Speaker 3: after they And we think about the Panthers, right, what

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Speaker 3: does this game mean to them? Really nothing, because all

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Speaker 3: they're trying to do is get to Week eighteen so

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Speaker 3: they can face the Buccaneers again, beat the Bucks and

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Speaker 3: win the NFC South. So I think that this game

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Speaker 3: really is a low spot here for the Carolina Panthers. Again,

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Speaker 3: one of the most volatile teams. But the pattern is,

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Speaker 3: and the trend is you bet against them after they

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Speaker 3: are coming off a win, when people have confidence in

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Speaker 3: the Panthers, then they immediately lose all that confidence because

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Speaker 3: as a Panthers better, I know how hard has been

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Speaker 3: able to ride this team on a week to week basis.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I think I cracked the code.

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Speaker 3: And the other part of this handicap here is I

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Speaker 3: just love Seattle on the road. This team is built

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Speaker 3: to just be a dominant team on the road. Twelve

311
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Speaker 3: and two straight up on the road since the start

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Speaker 3: of twenty twenty four, four to three and one against

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Speaker 3: the spread, and they've actually been historically great on the

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Speaker 3: East Coast five and zero, breezy straight up, four and

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Speaker 3: one against the spread. So going to be fading my

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Speaker 3: Carolina Panthers until next week, which is totally fine.

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Speaker 2: I'm cool with.

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Speaker 3: That because I just love the Seattle Seax coming off

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Speaker 3: extra rest after playing on that Thursday night game, that

320
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Speaker 3: crazy Thursday night game against the Los Angeles Rams.

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Speaker 2: So give me the Seahawks lane seven.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: The only time the Seahawks didn't cover align this big

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Speaker 1: or bigger on the road in the Eastern time zone

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Speaker 1: has been against the Tennessee Titans, where they kind of

326
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Speaker 1: against same thing, left the back door open and Tennessee

327
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Speaker 1: came more. They scored a bunch of points late in

328
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Speaker 1: that game. And I was on the Seahawks that day.

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Speaker 1: I think minus thirteen and a half is what I

330
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Speaker 1: had them at, so I was very disappointed. But this

331
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Speaker 1: is a good spot, I think to get back in

332
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Speaker 1: best with them. They have that first round by within sight.

333
00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:16,440
Speaker 1: It's within their reach. They need to stay on the

334
00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:18,600
Speaker 1: gas and they can't lift off. And that's actually kind

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Speaker 1: of where I'm going with my next play here. I'm

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Speaker 1: going with a totals teaser minus one eleven to two

337
00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,960
Speaker 1: legger Seattle Seahawks versus the Panthers. I'm on the alt

338
00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:28,120
Speaker 1: over thirty six and a half points. That's minus two

339
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Speaker 1: to seventy. And then the New York Giants versus the

340
00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,160
Speaker 1: Raiders under forty eight and a half points, minus two

341
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Speaker 1: to sixty again. Together it's gonna be minus one eleven.

342
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Speaker 1: And really like the first part of this is that

343
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Speaker 1: first leg where Seattle. I think they're gonna be roaring

344
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Speaker 1: once again on the East Coast, like you said, and

345
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Speaker 1: they have ample rests. Sam Darnold gotta be feeling himself

346
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Speaker 1: after maybe arguably the biggest win of his career on

347
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Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football against the Rams. Their games have hit

348
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Speaker 1: this alt line in eleven of fifteen games this season,

349
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Speaker 1: six of seven e road games as well. The Panthers

350
00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:59,160
Speaker 1: have hit this total in ten of fifteen games and

351
00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,600
Speaker 1: are also feeling better about themselves offensively as well, after

352
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Speaker 1: beating the Bucks, beating the Rams, like take out those

353
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Speaker 1: Saints games recently, and the Panthers look like, you know,

354
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Speaker 1: legit super Bowl contenders. Obviously, we have to consider those,

355
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Speaker 1: but at the same time, like you know, keep in mind,

356
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Speaker 1: this is the team that significantly better at home are

357
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Speaker 1: the Panthers. They're five and two straight up, they've been

358
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Speaker 1: dogs and all five of those wins that they have

359
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Speaker 1: got and the leg two like, this is the game

360
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Speaker 1: that is so important for Fernando Mendoza's future, right between

361
00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,120
Speaker 1: the Giants and between the Raiders, this game will likely

362
00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:31,480
Speaker 1: decide the number one overall pick. So I think both

363
00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:33,920
Speaker 1: organizations are going to do a lot of funky things. Hey,

364
00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:35,800
Speaker 1: let's send out the young guys. See what they can

365
00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,840
Speaker 1: do here. And the Giants offense, they've really started to

366
00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,720
Speaker 1: slow down in December with their line just continuing to

367
00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:44,040
Speaker 1: break down. Of course, more weeks about Camp Scattaboy as

368
00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,560
Speaker 1: well starting to wear on them. The Raiders, they had

369
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Speaker 1: some big plays last week with Ashon Genty. I know

370
00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:50,200
Speaker 1: a lot of people in fantasy were bummed because they

371
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:52,920
Speaker 1: finally sat him in what was a terrible matchup and

372
00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:55,880
Speaker 1: he went off. But they only still scored twenty one

373
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Speaker 1: points against the Texans, So like that's the most they've

374
00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:00,840
Speaker 1: scored in the last seven games. The Giants run the

375
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:02,440
Speaker 1: ball at the eighth highest clip in the NFL. The

376
00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:05,040
Speaker 1: Raiders are coming off a game where they were in

377
00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:07,280
Speaker 1: it and they still passed under fifty percent of the time,

378
00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,400
Speaker 1: So I think that should help run out the clock

379
00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:11,960
Speaker 1: and keep this total that has hit in eleven Raiders

380
00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:14,600
Speaker 1: games nine Giants games this season as seventy one point

381
00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:17,560
Speaker 1: four percent clip. So again, I'm going with a totals

382
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,360
Speaker 1: teaser there. Leg one, We're gonna take the Seattle Seahawks

383
00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:22,560
Speaker 1: and the Carolina Panthers over thirty six and a half

384
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:24,640
Speaker 1: and the Giants and Raiders under forty eight and a

385
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,960
Speaker 1: half points ericson. That is where I'm going with my

386
00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:27,520
Speaker 1: second bet.

387
00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,240
Speaker 3: I like the overplay with the Seahawks and Panthers that

388
00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:34,080
Speaker 3: is also on my betting radar, just the general over

389
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:38,240
Speaker 3: in that game. Carolina is home to a ton of overs.

390
00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,640
Speaker 3: I'm looking at eleven of their last fourteen home games

391
00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:42,720
Speaker 3: have actually gone over the points total. Now, I don't

392
00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 3: know exactly how it correlates with them coming off wins

393
00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:48,280
Speaker 3: and coming off losses, because obviously they are offense plays

394
00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:51,600
Speaker 3: significantly better usually after they're coming off a loss. And

395
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,040
Speaker 3: Seattle again the boat raced a little bit by the

396
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:55,960
Speaker 3: Rams offense, but that is the Rams offense, so it's

397
00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:57,680
Speaker 3: always tough. But moving it down to thirty six and

398
00:16:57,720 --> 00:16:59,720
Speaker 3: a half points is good. And you're a braver man

399
00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:01,600
Speaker 3: than me for betting on Giant Raiders.

400
00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:02,200
Speaker 2: I just.

401
00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:07,600
Speaker 3: Four range outcome game. Anything could happen in this game, right,

402
00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,479
Speaker 3: We really don't because we don't know what teams are,

403
00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:12,400
Speaker 3: what they're playing for. They trying to win, they trying

404
00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,240
Speaker 3: to lose. What are the teams trying to do? Who's

405
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,600
Speaker 3: gonna be out there? It'll be fun to watch. I

406
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:18,960
Speaker 3: would say, all I know is like for me, it wasn't.

407
00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:21,359
Speaker 3: I talked about this with Joe on the look Ahead

408
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,600
Speaker 3: Mine show. Not betting this game, I will bet ashing

409
00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:26,520
Speaker 3: Gend's overs, like that's all I know.

410
00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:28,000
Speaker 2: I know the run defense sucks.

411
00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:30,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, He's going to be a monster and I need

412
00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:33,000
Speaker 3: him so badly in fantasy because I advanced with him

413
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,359
Speaker 3: just by being on my bench. Didn't didn't feel bad

414
00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 3: about Hi'm like, no, I wasn't gonna start him. No,

415
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:39,960
Speaker 3: but he's in my line at this week in the Championship,

416
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 3: and I need to have a big game. So touchdowns

417
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:45,040
Speaker 3: for Gent, rushing arts for Gent against the Giants, yes, please.

418
00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,240
Speaker 1: I need the Giants come through. I need them to

419
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,320
Speaker 1: save it Fernando Mendoz's career. So someone like the Rams

420
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,000
Speaker 1: or a better organization can trade up and go get him.

421
00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,359
Speaker 1: I need you. I need your Giants. Let's do this.

422
00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,080
Speaker 1: Or if you're looking to up your game in sports betting,

423
00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:01,119
Speaker 1: go ahead and join our exclusive sports betting discord community

424
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:04,159
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com slash Chat. Not only can you

425
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,480
Speaker 1: connect with some expert handicappers who provide free picks for

426
00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:11,680
Speaker 1: the NBA, NFL MLB, NHL, college football, player props, live betting,

427
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:14,240
Speaker 1: and so much more. But now you can also participate

428
00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 1: in our weekly community picks. Cast your votes, see how

429
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,720
Speaker 1: your picks stack up against the experts like Andrew Erickson,

430
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:24,000
Speaker 1: and track your success Today, Andrew, let's go ahead to

431
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Speaker 1: the next best bets up for us? Number three? What

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Speaker 1: do you have for us?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we're moving into the player props. I'm going to

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Speaker 3: Tennessee hosting the New Orleans Saints this week. Tony Pollard

435
00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 3: over fifty nine and a half rushing yards. Guys, been

436
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:42,160
Speaker 3: on an absolute heater after suckinghouse basically for the first

437
00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,879
Speaker 3: twelve weeks of the NFL season. He has over sixty

438
00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:49,399
Speaker 3: rushing yards in four straight games. As the Titans office

439
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,600
Speaker 3: has kind of come alive in the last month or so,

440
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 3: They've been playing much better, especially at home, and Tony

441
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:58,600
Speaker 3: Pollard he's got incentives in his contract to hit big

442
00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:02,280
Speaker 3: numbers to finish out the seat. He is nine hundred

443
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:04,960
Speaker 3: and forty nine rushing yards currently, so fifty one yards

444
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,640
Speaker 3: away from one thousand, one hundred and fifty one yards

445
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,720
Speaker 3: away from a quarter of a million dollar bonus in

446
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,439
Speaker 3: his spreading track. Along with two more rushing touchdownsers give

447
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:15,680
Speaker 3: him another quarter of a million dollars, So I think

448
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:17,720
Speaker 3: Tony Poalward's gonna motivated. I know this is the lost

449
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:21,080
Speaker 3: season for the Tennessee Titans. Again, You're not really able

450
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:24,040
Speaker 3: to fully evaluate cam Ward in this type of environment,

451
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:26,200
Speaker 3: although I think that he has shown signs of hey,

452
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:28,240
Speaker 3: I can be a franchise quarterback. Just get me the

453
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,720
Speaker 3: right coach, get me some better surroundings. And I think

454
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 3: that Pollard's going to continue to be relied on here.

455
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,280
Speaker 3: He's averaging over twenty touches per game over the last

456
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,200
Speaker 3: three weeks. And something to point out about the Saints defense.

457
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 3: Brian Berze, their defensive tackle who actually leads the team

458
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 3: in run stops, not going to play this week, so

459
00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:48,000
Speaker 3: I think that's a big loss for their defensive interior.

460
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:49,960
Speaker 3: I'm talking about this on a lot of different shows

461
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:53,639
Speaker 3: this week, where when you lose a lynch pin player

462
00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:56,800
Speaker 3: in the middle of your defense, it puts other players

463
00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 3: in bad positions to then have to pick up the slack,

464
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 3: and sometimes they're not up for that opportunity. Remember the

465
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 3: vaulted Brown's run defense ma Leak Collins goes down, they

466
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:06,360
Speaker 3: can't stop the run.

467
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 2: Sure, my Patriots.

468
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 3: They lose Milton Williams, they lose Robert Splaine, all of

469
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,679
Speaker 3: a sudden, they can't stop anybody on the ground. So

470
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 3: I think that this could be a potential floodgates opening

471
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,879
Speaker 3: against the run for the Tennessee Titans without one of

472
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:21,400
Speaker 3: their defensive tackles. For New Orleans, I like them. They're

473
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:23,400
Speaker 3: at home. I think that they can even cover here too.

474
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,159
Speaker 3: But I think my best bet for this game was

475
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:27,560
Speaker 3: give me Tony Park, especially with money moving closer to

476
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,119
Speaker 3: Tennessee again open much. Yeah, I think it was like

477
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 3: Saints like four Saints minus four, Saints minus four and

478
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,040
Speaker 3: a half. Now it's down to Titans plus two and

479
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:36,880
Speaker 3: a half. Don't like that as much in a field

480
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:38,680
Speaker 3: goal game. Rather bet the props. So give me Tony

481
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,120
Speaker 3: Pard over fifty nine and a half rushing yards.

482
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 1: If you would have told me the way Tony Pollard

483
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:44,680
Speaker 1: started the season that he had a chance to get

484
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,680
Speaker 1: a thousand, let alone eleven hundred rushing yards, I would say,

485
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 1: what reality are you in? Especially when ty J. Spears

486
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 1: came back, they really started shifting back towards the committee.

487
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 1: But now Paullar are just getting so many of the

488
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,439
Speaker 1: touches and he's been great for them down the stretch,

489
00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 1: so I don't see any reason for him to take

490
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,119
Speaker 1: his foot off the gas. And yeah, I'm really excited

491
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 1: to see this one in kind of a battle of

492
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 1: potential future franchise quarterbacks Kylie Shuck looking out, they're pretty

493
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,760
Speaker 1: nice for the Saints as well. For me, though, Andrew Rickson,

494
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,119
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with a player prop as well for

495
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 1: this third pick. I'm going Parker Washington over his reception total.

496
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,399
Speaker 1: Right now, we are just seeing lines released for Parker

497
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:20,919
Speaker 1: Washington in a couple different books, no line at a

498
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 1: few different ones. So I'm gonna wait out and see

499
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 1: if i can find a two and a half and

500
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:25,919
Speaker 1: then pay that juice whatever that is. If it's the

501
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 1: minus one forty, I'm willing to pay it, or I'll

502
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 1: take the three and a half. I'm seeing it plus

503
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 1: money from our friends at hard Rock Bet right now.

504
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 1: But Trevor Lawrence, he is bawling out. And Parker Washington

505
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,280
Speaker 1: has been a legit weapon form when he's been healthy.

506
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 1: He's had thirteen targets nine receptions. In the past two games.

507
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,920
Speaker 1: Since being healthy, he has cleared two and a half

508
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 1: receptions in five of seven games since Travis Hunter went down,

509
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,919
Speaker 1: and whether it was a big play to DeMarcus Robinson

510
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 1: on Monday Night football, Cooper Cup catching five passes this

511
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:55,439
Speaker 1: past week. The slot wide receivers have been doing so

512
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 1: much damage against the Colts lately that I think they're

513
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 1: just gonna get roasted up here by Parker Washington, who

514
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 1: he's not only playing the slot, but in those three

515
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 1: wide receiver sets, he's coming into the middle of the

516
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,159
Speaker 1: field and the Colts secondary they have allowed tied for

517
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 1: the fourth most wide receiver receptions over the past month

518
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 1: thirteen per game, the second most receiving yards in that

519
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 1: span as well, Tee Law. He's thrown in an average

520
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 1: up thirty four times the past two weeks. And I

521
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,679
Speaker 1: see no reason that they're going to stop. The Texans

522
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: are only one game behind them for the divisional lead,

523
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 1: so I think it's full go on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

524
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 1: And how I want to get invested against the Colts

525
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 1: is with Parker Washington manning that slot and just looking

526
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 1: good out there for a foreign penn State and anee lion.

527
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 3: Yeah great after the catch, making a lot of explosive plays,

528
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 3: I think that this will probably help you too if

529
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,479
Speaker 3: we get sas carter back for the Indianapolis Colts. I

530
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 3: don't know if it's been confirmed whether he's coming back

531
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 3: or not this particular week. I don't know if it

532
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 3: makes sense for him to come back. But the Colts

533
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 3: traded for him, so they're like, no, you gotta play

534
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 3: because we traded all these picks for you. Yeah, or no,

535
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:56,400
Speaker 3: we don't want to get hurt again because we trade

536
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 3: all these picks for you. So again, you know which

537
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 3: side of the corner you gonna land when it comes

538
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 3: to how the Colts should be deploying their prize asset

539
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 3: of Sus Carter. But if he is playing, more like

540
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 3: he's locking up guys like Jacobi Myers, Brian Todds Junior

541
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,640
Speaker 3: on the outside. So yeah, that would let Parker Washington

542
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 3: and Brenton Strange. He's another guy like a lot this

543
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 3: week for props touchdowns he should eat. We saw what

544
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 3: George Kittle did to the Colts and think, I mean

545
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 3: he that was one of my favorite props from last week.

546
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 2: And there wasn't even a sweat man like just starting.

547
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,199
Speaker 3: George Kittle just freaking destroys his player for his receiving

548
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 3: arts prop in the first half. I mean brock Purty

549
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 3: was on fire in the first half. So yeah, the

550
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 3: tee law train continues to roll through Indianapolis this week, and.

551
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 1: You actually think that may force the Colts to also

552
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 1: put up some points and start throwing the ball late

553
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 1: in this game. Where are you going for your second

554
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 1: best bet of the week staying in this particular matchup?

555
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean our transitions.

556
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 3: I've been just spot on here, Seth with us going

557
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 3: from game by game connecting all the dots here. So

558
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,120
Speaker 3: I like Alec Pierce to go over his receiving yards

559
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 3: prop over at thirty nine and a half yards the

560
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 3: Cold I don't think they're technically eliminated from the playoffs,

561
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 3: but they're pretty much eliminated from the playoffs. I think

562
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 3: that that's pretty clear just based on how everything's It

563
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,360
Speaker 3: would take very, very weird outcomes for them to make

564
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 3: a run here. But Alec Pierce, I just think that

565
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 3: this number is way too low. I get that it

566
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 3: is Philip Rivers that is the quarterback, but what we

567
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 3: saw from him against the forty nine ers, I think

568
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 3: that this guy can throw for two hundred yards, right,

569
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,640
Speaker 3: I didn't think that, Yes, the deep ball is not there,

570
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 3: it's really more of like a duck type of pass.

571
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 3: But I think that he's still show that he's been

572
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:37,719
Speaker 3: good enough and he can read the defense to understand

573
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 3: where to get the ball to. And alk Pierce has

574
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 3: just been a monster all year long. He has forty

575
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 3: plus receiving yards in all but three games sixty or

576
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 3: more and all but four games played this season. That's

577
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 3: seventy eight percent. And when you look at who is

578
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 3: the leading receiver for the Colts this season, it's not

579
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 3: Michael Pittman, It's Alec Pierce. He's one hundred and twenty

580
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 3: nine yards away from one thousand yards. He's going to

581
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 3: be a free agent at the end of the year.

582
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,160
Speaker 3: He wants to get to this number because when I'm

583
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 3: hitting free agency and I'm talking all these teams, Yeah,

584
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,199
Speaker 3: well I had a thousand yards last year, like that,

585
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 3: he'd know it was like I had nine hundred and fifty. No,

586
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 3: like I had one thousand yards last year. So what's

587
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 3: old man River's gonna do. He's gonna feed this guy.

588
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:16,880
Speaker 3: He's gonna get him going so he gets paid. Because

589
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 3: what else is Philip Rivers playing for at this point, right,

590
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,199
Speaker 3: he's playing to have some fun. So I think that

591
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 3: Alex Pierce is going to go over this number again.

592
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 3: Four for eighty six last week against the forty nine

593
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 3: ers on just five targets. He has a long air

594
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,159
Speaker 3: yards per target at eighteen point one. So he does

595
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 3: feel a little bit boom or busty. But I mean

596
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 3: he's shown all year with whoever the quarterback has been

597
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 3: for the Unapolis Colts that he can get it done.

598
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 3: He can generate explosive plays. And what do we know

599
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 3: about the Jaguars defense. Pass funnel teams cannot run the

600
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,160
Speaker 3: football against the Jaguars defense playing at an elite level.

601
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 3: I know they'll try to get Jonathan Taylor going, but

602
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 3: they couldn't get him going that much. When they first

603
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 3: played Jacksonville, the head to throw at a ton, we

604
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:54,360
Speaker 3: saw yardage for those types of players.

605
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 2: He hit this the last.

606
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 3: Time they played the Jacksonville Jaguars and he got hurt

607
00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 3: at the end of that game. So give me the

608
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 3: over alk Pierce thirty nine and a half receiving yards.

609
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 1: Let me tell you what if George Pickens re signs

610
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 1: with Dallas Cowboys and Mike Evans either retires or resigns

611
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You have two guys in

612
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 1: Wandale Robinson and Alec Pierce who are going to be

613
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,360
Speaker 1: the bell of the ball in the NFL free agency

614
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 1: this offseason. I think it potentially starts here because he

615
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 1: has been arguably Philip Rivers's favorite target since going under

616
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 1: center for the Colts. So we'll see what happens out there.

617
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 1: One of my favorite story lines has been seeing Uncle

618
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,199
Speaker 1: Phil back under center there in Lucas Oil. So hopefully

619
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: we continue to see good things in terms of Alex Pierce.

620
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 1: For my next bet, I'm going to Remandre Stevenson any

621
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 1: time touchdown minus one thirty. And this is simple for me.

622
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 1: This is really really simple of a handicap. We have

623
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 1: to go back to the well on running backs to

624
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 1: score against the Jets. Last week, no running backs scored

625
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 1: against them. That was the first game in the jets

626
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 1: last five games where a running back did not scored

627
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: any time touchdown against them, and they had fourteen touchdowns

628
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 1: in the previous four games against them. And I would

629
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,439
Speaker 1: even say, like Taysom Hill at least threw a pass

630
00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:59,639
Speaker 1: right and he's kind of the running back slash tight end.

631
00:26:59,640 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 2: There.

632
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 1: You know, it doesn't count as any time touchdown, but

633
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 1: still in that realm. And like I think the Pats,

634
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 1: who are nearly two touchdown favorites in this game, they're

635
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 1: going to impose their will. They're going to make the

636
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 1: Jets look as bad as these other good teams have

637
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 1: like the Jaguars recently. And I think Romandre Stevenson, with

638
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 1: Travon Henderson likely being out this week, is going to

639
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 1: fall in the end zone once again. So simple one

640
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 1: for me, Mandre, for your Pats into the end zone.

641
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 3: He's gonna score. It's probably a better bet than laying

642
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 3: the points with the Patriots.

643
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 1: I agree. Man.

644
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 3: We just saw three third string quarterbacks all cover the

645
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 3: spread as home underdogs, So it seems so simple. You

646
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 3: gotta take the Pats, gotta lay the points. And that's

647
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,160
Speaker 3: how I felt earlier in the week. And maybe it's

648
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 3: just because the Jets motivation is less than those other teams,

649
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 3: where the Jets actually have incentive to lose, right, they

650
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 3: really have nothing to play for. That's why they're playing

651
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,199
Speaker 3: Brady Cook even though it seems like Torod Taylor is

652
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 3: actually healthy enough to play. They're electing to play Brady

653
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 3: Cook anyway, so you're going to get four for four covering.

654
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 2: The spread as third string quarterbacks.

655
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 3: I don't know, so I think that Remondra's teams is

656
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,479
Speaker 3: a good way to approach, especially with Henderson coming out

657
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 3: of the concussion. We don't even know if he's gonna

658
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 3: play still, so maybe two can If he hay, they'll

659
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,360
Speaker 3: probably keep it. Do you think the odds and move

660
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 3: at all if Henderson is still in maybe you get

661
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,880
Speaker 3: a better value, or they'll just be like, nah, we're

662
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 3: going to keep it at minus.

663
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 2: Well they're any Just in case.

664
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 1: I would say this is only released on a couple

665
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: of books right now. I think a lot of books

666
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 1: are waiting to see if Henderson will be out. So

667
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,400
Speaker 1: I don't mind going to take this now as soon

668
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: as you're listening to this. But if that's the case,

669
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 1: like like just go out there and kind of scour

670
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 1: the books, Go go to the betting pros dot com website,

671
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 1: download the app and look at the odds boards for

672
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: Vermandre's to a touchdown ads and just kind of see

673
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 1: what they're going out there. But I think it does

674
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 1: potentially move if Henderson's out there because only a few

675
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 1: books are brave enough to even put it out there

676
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 1: right now. But before we have that confirmation, love.

677
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 2: Those books, yes, yes they are.

678
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 1: They are books of the people, and that includes our

679
00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 1: friends over at hard Rock Bet, which are p Power

680
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 1: this week's hard Rock best Bets out the week and

681
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson, where is your top play four week number seventeen.

682
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 2: Well as the Undertaker.

683
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 3: Naturally, this is an underplay Michael Wilson under four and

684
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 3: a half receptions as my hard Rock Best bet of

685
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 3: the week. Simply put, Michael Wilson just doesn't see targets

686
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 3: when Marvin Harrison Junior is healthy and in the lineup.

687
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 3: Last week, Marvin Harrison Junior came back after missing a

688
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 3: couple of weeks.

689
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 2: Michael Wilson four targets. He had two.

690
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 3: Catches for fifty two yards in a touchdown. But every

691
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 3: single game this year where Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison

692
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 3: Junior have played together, Michael Wilson has gone over four

693
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 3: and a half receptions zero times.

694
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 1: Wow, zero wow.

695
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 3: I understand why the line is where it is because

696
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 3: of the absolute monster games Michael Wilson has had while

697
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 3: Marvin Harrison Junior has been sideline. Trust me, I know

698
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 3: picked up Michael Wilson. Fancy playing him every single week.

699
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 3: But if you just look at his game, if you

700
00:29:57,920 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 3: just look at his game log, it's really easy to

701
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 3: see the games where Marvin Harrison Junior comes back in

702
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 3: place and the ones where he's not playing. Because the

703
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 3: numbers are just so stark. So I'm taking the under

704
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 3: at four and a half receptions. Four Michael Wilson, like

705
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 3: I said, just doesn't hit this number when Marv is healthy. Look,

706
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 3: I'm not saying that Marvi is so much better and

707
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 3: he should be seeing all these targets, but he's usually

708
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 3: the first read among wide receivers, which Chikobe pre said

709
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 3: as a quarterback. When he's not playing, it's Michael Wilson.

710
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 3: But when he's back, and I expect him actually play

711
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 3: more snaps than he did last week. The thing two

712
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 3: with the last two games that they've played together, Marvin

713
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 3: Harrison Junior has been on snap counts in both those games.

714
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 3: One when he was coming back from an injury and

715
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 3: then another game was when he actually got re injured again.

716
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 3: And then you saw Michael Wilson get a bunch of

717
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 3: targets after Marvin Harrison Junior left that game, so also

718
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 3: don't love the matchup necessarily. Yes, it's the Bengals, so

719
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 3: it's a game where there's a lot of scoring. But

720
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 3: how do you attack the Bengals is with running backs

721
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 3: and tight ends. So Trey McBride, you can't you can't

722
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 3: list his receptions, yardage, touchdown props low enough for me

723
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 3: this week because he's gonna have like an absolute bomb

724
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 3: punkers game. The Bengals have allowed the third fewest perceptions

725
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 3: to wide receivers this season, like they just don't give

726
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 3: up a lot of productions petificlarly completions to wide receivers.

727
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 3: And also the forecast in this game, it's gonna be

728
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 3: a little bit rain this week. A little bit of rain,

729
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 3: a little bit of win. Not gonna be cold to

730
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 3: like sixty degrees, which is kind of bizarre, I guess

731
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 3: for a late December game in Cincinnati, but slickball. Maybe

732
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 3: Michael Wilson doesn't catch all of his targets. He's not

733
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 3: as efficient as he was last week, and fifty two

734
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 3: yards on just two catches, So sure I'm taking the

735
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 3: under four and a half and you get a plus

736
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 3: money too, like that's the thing too, plus money that

737
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 3: you're getting four guy that's never hit this when Marvin

738
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 3: Harrison Junior has been healthy and active.

739
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 2: That's why it's my heart Rock best bet.

740
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 1: Baby, Hey, I love it. And because specifically DJ Turner

741
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: has been better and I'm not sure if he will

742
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 1: be He's not the shadow type of cornerback. He's going

743
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 1: to bounce a lot, but back between Marv and Michael

744
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 1: Wilson most likely. And that's the great thing about the

745
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 1: betting Pros prop bet Analyzer Erickson as you can go

746
00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 1: in there and actually filter with players and with out players,

747
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 1: so you can easily. It probably took you two clicks

748
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 1: go into Michael Wilson's prop bet Analyzer page, you click

749
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 1: without player or with player, and in this case Martin

750
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 1: Harrison Junior and you saw red red red, red red

751
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: red across the board. So yes, I'm there with you.

752
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: And once again we're staying in the same game here

753
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 1: because my hard Rock best bet of the week is

754
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: Chase Brown over eighty two and a half rushing plus

755
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 1: receiving yards. This is going off at minus one fifteen.

756
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 1: This Cardinals defense, it is getting banged up as the

757
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 1: season progresses, their linebacking core right now, it is a

758
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 1: legit liability. They have allowed the most rushing yards two

759
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 1: posing running backs over the past month one hundred and

760
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,959
Speaker 1: fifty two point three per game, the six most receiving

761
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 1: yards to them as well in that span over fifty

762
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 1: and while Brown is playing less snaps, he's been way

763
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 1: more efficient with p Ryan mixing in. He's hit this

764
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 1: VP projected line of eighty two and a half of

765
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 1: eight out of nine games in the last two months

766
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:57,720
Speaker 1: and also averaging one hundred and two point three yards

767
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 1: per game in that span. So with him also seeing

768
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 1: five point five targets per game with Joe Burr back

769
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 1: under center, I think this is a very safe receiving floor.

770
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 1: And then you get the Cardinals where he's probably gonna

771
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 1: get a good yards per carry clip too. I'm all

772
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 1: in on Chase Brown this week. I'm aboard to train

773
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: and it was one that I thought I was gonna

774
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 1: have to get off early in the season because I

775
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 1: was so high on him for fantasy. I had a

776
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 1: couple futures tied up in him as well. But all

777
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 1: good things come to those who wait. Andrew Rickson, Yeah.

778
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 3: Chase Brown just one of these other players that just

779
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 3: absolutely dead weight on your fantasy rosters to start the year,

780
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 3: very similar to Tony Pollard, where you just couldn't use

781
00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 3: this guy at all and you're just ending the year

782
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 3: on absolute here. So I got Chase Brown in my

783
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 3: remaining Fantasy league championship this week let's go, slotted in

784
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 3: as RB one. I traded for him right before the

785
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 3: trade deadline because I saw this schedule the rest of season,

786
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 3: I was like, I gotta get Chase Brown on my season.

787
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 3: So yes, also high in Chase Brown during draft season,

788
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 3: miserable to start the year, but hoping he can finish

789
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 3: on a high note.

790
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm hand holding with you man. Let's go.

791
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 1: Let's go. And if you want to know where I

792
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 1: bet on sports during the holiday season, it is only

793
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,800
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794
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795
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796
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Speaker 1: simple taps. I open up the app, I find a

797
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Speaker 1: bet I like, and then bam, my BET's placed, just

798
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 1: in time from you get back to wrapping Christmas presents,

799
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:17,319
Speaker 1: which I was up pretty late on Festivus wrapping those

800
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 1: presents because my fiance her birthday is on Christmas Eve?

801
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 1: So how to get all that done? Hard Rock Bet, though,

802
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Speaker 1: made sure I was ready for those Bowl games happening

803
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804
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814
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 1: that is going to do it for us today. Don't

815
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 1: forget that. You can also check out every single week

816
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: Joe Madden our friend, who is hosting a short betting

817
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 1: live stream ahead of Monday Night Football on the BP

818
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,879
Speaker 1: YouTube channel. It goes off from eight pm Eastern Time

819
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 1: until kickoff, so please check that out. Also make sure

820
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 1: you're subscribing to the ben Pros YouTube channel Ring the

821
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 1: Bell to be notified of all of our weekly live streams.

822
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,839
Speaker 1: Let us know down the comments below your favorite week

823
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 1: seventeen bets and while you're going to make sure you're

824
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,439
Speaker 1: fashion that like bunt and download the free Betting Pros

825
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Speaker 1: app today for Andrew Rickson, O Seth Wilcock take care

826
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 1: of y'all. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

827
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

828
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829
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,400
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830
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831
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:44,280
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