1 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:10,560 Speaker 1: global economy to you. We have a packed episode this week, 3 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: including a report from Johannesburg on the economic costs of 4 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:17,800 Speaker 1: not vaccinating Africa, sit down with the German finance Minister, 5 00:00:17,840 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: Olaf Scholtz, who's running to succeed Angela Merkel as German 6 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: Chancellor in the autumn, and a plan to save the 7 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 1: world for a mere fifty billion dollars. First, Bloomberg Senior 8 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 1: economy reporter Sean Donnan has been on the road again 9 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:34,479 Speaker 1: to a city in the American rust belt which is 10 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: being promised a bright future again here Northeastern high Before 11 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 1: we go any further, let's get this out of the way. 12 00:00:52,960 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 1: This is, of course, Bruce Springsteen here. And then there 13 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:06,039 Speaker 1: is this guy who you may remember. I am thrilled 14 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 1: to be back into great state of Ohio right here 15 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: with the incredible men and women of Youngstown. That is, 16 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:19,839 Speaker 1: of course Donald Trump, and both he and Bruce Springsteen 17 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: are riffing on a place they have in common. If 18 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 1: you want to find an emblem of American industrial decline, 19 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: then Youngstown, Ohio is probably as good as it gets. 20 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: The steel mills started shutting down in the nineties seventies, 21 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 1: and nothing has been the same since. That story of 22 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 1: industrial turmoil and its economic and political consequences from inequality 23 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: to populism is by now a familiar one, but for 24 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 1: a place like Youngstown and a new US President, Joe Biden, 25 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: it's one entering a fresh chapter. Biden, like Trump, has 26 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: promised to bring all paid factory jobs back to the US. 27 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: He wants to do that by investing in infrastructure and 28 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:11,079 Speaker 1: new energy technologies, and to have the government support an 29 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: enormous industrial pivot in the auto industry from combustion engines 30 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 1: to electric vehicles. In fact, so largest American jobs investments 31 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: since World War Two will create millions of jobs. Good 32 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: paying jobs, will grow the economy, make us more competitive 33 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: around the world, promote our national security interest, and put 34 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 1: us in a position to win the global competition with 35 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: China in the upcoming years. The challenge facing Biden is 36 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 1: that this isn't the first time in recent history that 37 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: it's been attempted, and that's so far the efforts haven't 38 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: ever really generated the jobs promised, which is where Youngstown 39 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 1: and a part of its story that hasn't been told 40 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 1: very often comes in. In two thousand twelve, when Joe 41 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 1: Biden was Vice Press, the Obama administration set up a 42 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 1: three D printing institute in Youngstown. It was part of 43 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 1: a broader manufacturing policy, and yes, it was aimed at 44 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: bringing back factory jobs. Our first priority is making America 45 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 1: a magnet for new jobs and manufacturer. That's President Barack 46 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 1: Obama speaking to Congress for his two thousand thirteen State 47 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,239 Speaker 1: of the Union address. There are things we can do 48 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 1: right now to accelerate this trend. Last year, we created 49 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 1: our first manufacturing innovation institute in Youngstown, Ohio. Once shuttered 50 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 1: warehouse is now a state of the art lab where 51 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 1: new workers are mastering the three D printing that has 52 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: the potential to revolutionize the way we make almost everything. 53 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: There's no reason this can't happen in other towns. Almost 54 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 1: a decade on, almost two hundred million dollars has been 55 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: invested in that institute. It is now known as America Makes. 56 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: It has thirteen employees in Youngstown and counts about two 57 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: D companies, and it's now work nationally, including about a 58 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: dozen in the Youngstown area. Local officials and educators are 59 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: also trying to establish Youngstown as a training center for 60 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: manufacturing workers of the future. The goal is to create 61 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: a business ecosystem that will attract new investment and jobs 62 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: in industries like additive manufacturing and electric vehicles, all funded 63 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 1: by millions in government investment. But it's slow work and 64 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: it's hard to declare that the institute has fueled the 65 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: manufacturing jobs renaissance in Youngstown. In more than sixty one 66 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: thousand people worked in manufacturing in the Youngstown metropolitan area. 67 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 1: When Obama gave that address to Congress in January, the 68 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 1: number was just below thirty thousand. By March of this year, 69 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 1: it was a little over twenty three thousand. Among the 70 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 1: success stories as Juggerbot three D, which makes industrial scale 71 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 1: three D printers out of a subsidized space run by 72 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 1: America makes Zach Defenchenzo is a Youngstown area native and 73 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 1: the company's co founder and president. He showed me around 74 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 1: recently that humming you here in the background. That's his machines. 75 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 1: Most people think you think I'm trying to understand what 76 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:18,279 Speaker 1: you print. I could show you parts with the pilot. 77 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: You will understand is it can also print tooling that 78 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 1: you were used to make parts. Government help is meaningful 79 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 1: for jugger bout. It helps seed the company. Half its 80 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 1: two point two million dollars in revenues this year will 81 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:34,040 Speaker 1: come from government projects. Juggerbot has access to Defense Department 82 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: laboratories and government contracts that would make most startups salivate. 83 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 1: But it's also not a huge jobs creator. Jugger Bot 84 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 1: has six full time employees. Defencenzo has plans to grow, 85 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: but when he talks about his dream for his business 86 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,840 Speaker 1: five years from now, he's talking about employing forty to 87 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 1: sixty people. The job's a company like jugger Bot provides 88 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: are skilled and well paid. The company provides good benefits 89 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: like health insurance. That's something Defencenzo is proud of. When 90 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 1: the sprawling GM planted nearby Lordstown shutdown in twenty one, 91 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 1: idea he had was to hire machinists being laid off, 92 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 1: and his benefits were part of the pitch. He's actually 93 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 1: an idea that he just has funny to do so 94 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 1: get healthcare regilit to get healthcare. Plant things here. But 95 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 1: companies like jugger Bot operate on a different scale from 96 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:34,280 Speaker 1: giants like GM. When GM shut down in Lordstown, people 97 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 1: were working at the plant a new electric vehicle company 98 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: has taken over the facility, but it's only promising to 99 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 1: employ fifteen hundred people. A new battery joint venture between 100 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: GM and South Korean conglomerate LG nearby is pledging to 101 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 1: hire a little over a thousand people. In other words, 102 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:55,839 Speaker 1: just getting back to where you started looks challenging. The 103 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 1: story of the three D printing pushing Youngstown also illustrates 104 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: another long running issue facing manufacturing workers. Economists love rising productivity, 105 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 1: but that by its very definition, means producing more with less, 106 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 1: which is America's manufacturing jobs problem. In a nutshell, the 107 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 1: US has for decades been producing more industrial goods than 108 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 1: it did with steadily fewer workers, and that's not about 109 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: to stop. That's evident in Latonia, twenty five minutes south 110 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: of Youngstown, where Mark la Mancha is plotting the three 111 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 1: D printing future of his own company, Hometown Products. Actually 112 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 1: we're going through now almost two railroad cars of sand 113 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: a month, which were additive. That's huge. In a former 114 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: Mistsubishi tire mold factory, five German made three D printers 115 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 1: were away twenty four hours a day printing sand moles 116 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: for foundries that will use them to manufacture engine blocks 117 00:07:55,880 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 1: and other cast metal components. La Mancha is an evangelist 118 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 1: for three D printing and new productivity driven management techniques. 119 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:08,679 Speaker 1: He has rebranded his employees industrial athletes. On his business card, 120 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 1: La Mancha has the title head coach, but that doesn't 121 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 1: mean more jobs. When the last recession hit in two 122 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: thousand and eight, Homptown employed two people. Today it employs 123 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 1: forty eight. At the new tol Toonia plant are just 124 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: eight of those people. It is a cavernous and quiet place. 125 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: So now this is the print room and I'm trying 126 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 1: to think it will be the one on the end. 127 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: La Mancha is also exploring three D printing metal components 128 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 1: directly and venturing into other materials, which presages an even 129 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 1: bigger disruption of the local industrial economy. What is this Okay, 130 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 1: comes out about the size of a laser? Okay, until 131 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: you act, until you ask one of one of them, 132 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:11,080 Speaker 1: can you make me Polly at the lane sand? So 133 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 1: I asked X on mobile if they can make me 134 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: Polly at the lane sand? Yeah? You know what. We're 135 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: in front of their naps for friend and Polly affline Friend, 136 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 1: think Polly uplane. Wow, it's a trial to see if 137 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:27,080 Speaker 1: a relatively old school mold maker like Hometown can be 138 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 1: a high speed producer of plastic components and find another future. 139 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 1: Now it's a it's a science experiment, but what the 140 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:40,640 Speaker 1: power of what is? What if it work? And if 141 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 1: it works it gets you into what what kind of products? 142 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: Then if that experiment succeeds, it will of course be 143 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: good for Hometown and La Mancha. It might even be 144 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 1: good for the US economy as a whole. I think 145 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 1: of it as a sign of a new industrial dynamism. 146 00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:00,040 Speaker 1: But it's also unlikely to mean more jobs for a 147 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:04,680 Speaker 1: place like well what if turns to it is now 148 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: or whatever the words would be, or want it actual 149 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 1: work for Bloomberg News charm dining, Yeah, it's m thore. 150 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 1: The long term problems for the economy have definitely not 151 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 1: gone away. The short term news has been a bit 152 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:39,559 Speaker 1: brighter for many of us recently, shops and bars opening again, 153 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: roads filling up. My children were even told this week 154 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: they didn't need to wear masks in the classroom anymore. 155 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: But that feeling of reawakening many of us might be 156 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:53,719 Speaker 1: feeling is far from universal. In fact, globally, there are 157 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 1: nearly as many people dying now of COVID nineteen than 158 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: at the peak earlier in the year, twice as many 159 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: as when the first wave got going in the US 160 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: and Europe the year ago. For large parts of the world, 161 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen has probably never looked more threatening, and the 162 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: stakes for Sub Saharan Africa are especially high. Here's Bloomberg's 163 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 1: Economy and Government reporter in Johannesburg, Prunesia Nadu. There should 164 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 1: have been a promising year for Africa. Instead, a shortage 165 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 1: of coronavirus vaccines threatens to stall output, increase inequality, and 166 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:39,680 Speaker 1: reverse the gains made against poverty. Most countries on the 167 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:44,199 Speaker 1: world's least inoculated continent are depending on KOVACS, a global 168 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:49,079 Speaker 1: initiative creator, to provide equitable access to vaccines, but African 169 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 1: nations won't receive the bulk of their orders until the 170 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: second half of the year, and those will only cover 171 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: a fifth of their populations. Others are cash strapped and 172 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: relying donations from China, Russia and even India. We're a 173 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:08,680 Speaker 1: devastating disease outbreak and temporary bound on exports have already 174 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 1: curbed shipments. That leaves Africa vulnerable to new waves of 175 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 1: infection and extended lockdowns. The United Nations Economic Commission for 176 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: Africa is warning of potentially dire consequences. The slow vaccine 177 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: rollout and lack of funding to bridge the gap between 178 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 1: poor and rich countries could set Africa back two to 179 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 1: five years. Na gopaled Us is a director at Africa 180 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 1: focused risk management firm Signal Risk. The slow vaccine rollout 181 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,599 Speaker 1: in Africa is deeply concerning because it really runs the 182 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 1: risk of making US a prior continent. If we do 183 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:51,680 Speaker 1: not vaccinate our people in Africa, we are going to 184 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:54,400 Speaker 1: be locked out of the global economic recovery, which is 185 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 1: going to compromise our ability to achieve growth, to trade 186 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: with the rest of the world, to unlock investment, and 187 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 1: which is going to see US remain a lagged continent. 188 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:08,719 Speaker 1: The International Monetary Fund already sees the economic activity, particularly 189 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 1: in the Sub Saharan region, falling behind world output. Rich 190 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 1: countries with access to vaccines I expected to recover more 191 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 1: strongly from the pandemic and poorer nations struggling under the 192 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 1: dual burdens of disease and debt. COVID nineteen plunged thirty 193 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: million Africans into extreme poverty last year, meaning they live 194 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: on less than a dollar ninety a day and without 195 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 1: adequate support. As many as thirty nine million more could 196 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 1: follow in one according to the African Development Bank. While 197 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 1: advanced economies can afford to extend stimulus measures for many months, 198 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 1: African policymakers were already burdened by budget deficits and high 199 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:59,839 Speaker 1: levels of debt even before the pandemic struck. They're on 200 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 1: a pressure to restore public finances. Some African countries will 201 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 1: get relief after the Group of Twenty Nations extended its 202 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 1: death service suspension initiative to the end of one and 203 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: others will receive a portion of the thirty three billion 204 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 1: dollars in special drawing rights that the IMF plans to 205 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 1: provide to African countries. Well, that's unlikely to be enough. 206 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 1: There are some silver linings. According to Gopaldas, accommodative global 207 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: monetary and fiscal conditions should allow African countries to attract 208 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 1: capital and reduce their costs of funding, and higher commodity 209 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 1: prices should also benefit governments in resource rich nations. We 210 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 1: would do well not to squander this opportunity. You'll remember 211 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: that at the turn of the last decade we were 212 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: in this position as well, but both economic governance and 213 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: political governance has regressed over that period um. So I 214 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 1: think it's important that we take some of these lessons board. 215 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 1: We need to diversify our economies, we need to integrate regionally, 216 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 1: and this is where I think the continental free traded 217 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 1: movement becomes important. And then also we need to really 218 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 1: improve our governance, both from an economic and political perspective, 219 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 1: and I think if we do that, we'll have a 220 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 1: fighting charge chance of coming out of this this pandemic 221 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: um in a in a reasonable manner. So the distribution 222 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: of vaccines around the world is shockingly unequal, but everything 223 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: about this pandemic has been distributed unequally and globally. As 224 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 1: we can hear very clearly in that piece, the gap 225 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 1: between rich and poor countries seems to be getting wider 226 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: every day, with advanced economies now getting pretty spirited highly 227 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 1: vaccinated economic recoveries, and the developing world continuing potentially to 228 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 1: suffer further ways of disease and economic pain. But this 229 00:15:56,160 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 1: could all end very differently for not very much more money. 230 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 1: According to a proposal to end the COVID nineteen pandemic, 231 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: which was published this week by the chief economist of 232 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 1: the I m F. Peter Gopinath and her co author Russia. 233 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 1: I go, well, Tom Alick, for once we're talking about 234 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 1: something that wasn't a piece of your research, our Bloomberg 235 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: chief economist. But tell us a little about what this 236 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 1: plan is. Yeah. So great to be here, Stephanie, and 237 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: hopefully in the interests of equity, you'll also be inviting 238 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 1: Geter Gopinath on the podcast to discuss one of my 239 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 1: pieces of research on a on a future episode. She 240 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 1: has been She's been on, but I'm afraid I forgot 241 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 1: to talk about you next time. I will um so 242 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 1: um so. An ingenious smart proposal from the leading lights 243 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: of the International Monetary Fund UM. They say that if 244 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 1: we can spend fifty billion dollars today to boost the 245 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: vaccination effort, especially in low and middle income countries, that's 246 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: going to deliver enormous benefits. Enormous health benefits, of course, 247 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 1: but by spurring the recovery in those countries also enormous 248 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 1: economic benefits. They put a number on it, fifty billion 249 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:11,439 Speaker 1: dollars to boost vaccination efforts could deliver nine trillion dollars 250 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 1: in enhancements increases in global GDP as the global economy accelerates. 251 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,360 Speaker 1: So that's a ratio of a hundred and eighty two one, 252 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 1: which does seem like quite a good cost cost benefit ratio, 253 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: and quite a lot of those benefits. I think they 254 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 1: say forty of that would go to the high income countries. 255 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 1: So this isn't just altruism. There's there are there are 256 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:38,719 Speaker 1: benefits to all economies. And how does this proposal differ 257 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 1: to what they think would otherwise happen, because we obviously 258 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 1: have seen some we have covacs, we have quite big 259 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 1: global efforts to vaccinate the poorest economies. So I think 260 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 1: there's a few dimensions. The first is that this accelerates 261 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: and amplifies the effort to vaccinate low and middle income countries. 262 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 1: The second is it expands the resources that we have 263 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 1: to go into vaccination, freeing up the cross border flow 264 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 1: of raw materials necessary for vaccinations, for example. And the 265 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 1: third is that it puts what the authors describe as 266 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: kind of risk mitigation efforts in place. They suggest we 267 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 1: need to diversify the sources of vaccine supply. They suggest 268 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 1: very sensibly that as we wait for those new vaccines 269 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 1: to come online, we need to prep the distribution mechanisms 270 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: so that when the additional shots are available, they can 271 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 1: quickly go into people's arms. It's very eye catching to 272 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: have put the costs of benefits in these terms, and 273 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 1: there is such a very large gap between the two. 274 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:48,199 Speaker 1: It just seems like an easy wind for the for 275 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: the international community. When we've done so well at getting 276 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,680 Speaker 1: these vaccines developed so fast, any chance is going to happen? 277 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: Do you think? I mean, the world has faced an 278 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:02,239 Speaker 1: enormous collective act action problem over the course of the 279 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 1: COVID pandemic. Right, the right response back at the start 280 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 1: of was a global lockdown to contain the virus. The 281 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 1: right response after the virus got out of control was 282 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:21,960 Speaker 1: a global vaccination effort. Those things haven't happened. Why is that? 283 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 1: I think it's because systems are sticky. Right. We like freedom, 284 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:30,199 Speaker 1: we like liberty, we like democracy, we like capitalism, and 285 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:34,679 Speaker 1: these things make it harder to solve collective action problems 286 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,919 Speaker 1: at a national level, even harder to solve them at 287 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 1: a global level. If we think outside of the COVID crisis, 288 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 1: things like returns to increasing education for women in emerging markets, 289 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:54,360 Speaker 1: moves to eradicate other diseases. These would also generate absolutely 290 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 1: enormous global benefits. We've not been able to solve the 291 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:01,680 Speaker 1: collective action problem we need to solve to address those problems. 292 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 1: I would love to think that this Gopinath and Aggarawil 293 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:09,879 Speaker 1: paper provides a catalyst for more rapid action on the 294 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 1: COVID crisis. We'll have to wait and see whether that happens. 295 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,000 Speaker 1: So a lot of dimensions to this, not just the 296 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,680 Speaker 1: lack of vaccination, but that's at least we can see 297 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,480 Speaker 1: in that I m F proposal that there's something concrete 298 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,159 Speaker 1: that the world could do, and maybe maybe they'll do it. 299 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: Tom Alick, thanks very much, Thanks Stephanie. Finally, I couldn't 300 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 1: resist playing you just a small chunk of a long 301 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 1: interview I had earlier in the week with Olaf Schultz, 302 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 1: the German finance minister who's the Social Democratic Party's candidate 303 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 1: for chancellor in the autumn elections. He's currently running third 304 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 1: in the polls to the Green Party candidate and the 305 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,679 Speaker 1: new leader of the Christian Democrats, the party of Angelo Merkele. 306 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 1: He was just coming from a meeting of G seven 307 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 1: finance ministers. So I started by asking him about the 308 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 1: European unions. Sank on. Belarus agreed very rapidly at a 309 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 1: meeting of government leaders on Monday. There's also a few 310 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 1: snippets on those global tax negotiations that I know Stephanomics 311 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: listeners have been very interested in. We also had a 312 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,640 Speaker 1: conversation about him and his party's prospects in the election. 313 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 1: You should see that I'm coming from a city of 314 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,880 Speaker 1: seafarer as that was the mayor of Hamburg time my goal, 315 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 1: and we were always fighting against piracy. You could understand 316 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 1: that I'm really really angry about what happened, and we 317 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:41,360 Speaker 1: cannot accept activities like this in Europe. This is against 318 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 1: any agreement we had and have, and it is necessary 319 00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 1: that we are that we are strict, and that we 320 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 1: continue to be strict. It isn't that an inevitable corollary? 321 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 1: How can we have this response to the to Belarus 322 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 1: and not also have it affect the broader relations with Russia, 323 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:02,320 Speaker 1: which has been so supportive of this regime. We are 324 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 1: reacting to what we see, and this is the case 325 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:10,160 Speaker 1: with Belarus. I'm absolutely absolutely sure that it is necessary 326 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 1: to be clear about what we are thinking about the 327 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,919 Speaker 1: future and to use it for a new development in 328 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 1: European Russian relations. And this is I think an activity 329 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 1: that should be done by all member states together. It 330 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:30,640 Speaker 1: is not necessary that we ask always for new steps. 331 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,879 Speaker 1: It is necessary to be clear. Well, you say we 332 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,920 Speaker 1: need to be clear, I mean many people on the outside, 333 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:41,399 Speaker 1: and indeed many in the EU feel that there is 334 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,720 Speaker 1: a There isn't clarity in the position as long as 335 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 1: Germany is going ahead with a pipeline that would increase 336 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 1: the Europe's dependence on Russia and actually undermine some of 337 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 1: the EU s allies and even members closest closest to 338 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 1: Can we have that clarity when we're still going ahead 339 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 1: with a major project like that. It is a private 340 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 1: project that has been developed for a very long time 341 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 1: and it's nearly finished now. So the important question is 342 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:17,400 Speaker 1: whether the idea behind your question is correct that there 343 00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 1: it is increasing the dependency of Europe or Germany in 344 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 1: uh support from Russia. If we look at gas, and 345 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 1: this is not the case. We already have a lot 346 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 1: of gas from Russia, but we also have gas gas 347 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 1: from Scandinavia and from other places. We are not just 348 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,880 Speaker 1: relying on gas. My view is that many of those 349 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,359 Speaker 1: complaining about this fact should look at their own inputs 350 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:48,919 Speaker 1: of fossil resources from other places and also from Russia. 351 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 1: The question is not whether we will have this pipeline. 352 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: The question is how we invest into the future, and 353 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: there is Germany in intensely acting. Just a final question 354 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 1: on the North Stream pipeline. Last year, when Alexei Navalley 355 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:09,920 Speaker 1: was poisoned and detained, there was a round of pressure 356 00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 1: and questioning around that pipeline. Is there anything that the 357 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:14,919 Speaker 1: Russian government could do at this point in terms of 358 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: violating basic norms of European behavior that would cause you 359 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 1: to have a second thought about the pipeline. Our view 360 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:30,320 Speaker 1: must be at the development in European Russian relations, and 361 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 1: for that it is necessary that we are strict in 362 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 1: when there are conflicts with all the agreements we already have, 363 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:44,120 Speaker 1: and we were strict in the debate about CRIMEA. We 364 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 1: were very strict. But they can support piracy. No one 365 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:53,199 Speaker 1: can support piracy without getting a strict answer from the 366 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:57,119 Speaker 1: European Union and will not. And this is from my 367 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 1: point of view, the real question how we act cautiously 368 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 1: and strict and clear, And this is what is the 369 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 1: task for all of us when we want to keep 370 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 1: peace in Europe. One other area in which there have 371 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 1: been developments in the last day or two is these 372 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 1: negotiations over global tax and the so called the sort 373 00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:22,200 Speaker 1: of the two pillars that are now subject of conversation 374 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,880 Speaker 1: at the O E C, d G seven and elsewhere. 375 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:29,000 Speaker 1: You are very positive about President Biden sort of compromised 376 00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:33,679 Speaker 1: proposal for a fifteen percent minimum corporate tax rate. Do 377 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 1: you see a practical solution to that? The other pillar 378 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,480 Speaker 1: of the talks, this idea of where companies, not just 379 00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:46,000 Speaker 1: how much, but where particularly the digital companies are taxed. 380 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,879 Speaker 1: We worked now for a very long time, all the 381 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:53,520 Speaker 1: four years when I'm in office, for getting a solution 382 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:58,640 Speaker 1: in the two aspects of the necessary agreements on taxation 383 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 1: on the global level. One is the minimum taxation of corporates, 384 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:07,800 Speaker 1: and we are we were nearly ready with all the 385 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,640 Speaker 1: work in the end of the last year. There were 386 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:14,080 Speaker 1: some very small questions open. One was the one of 387 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 1: the tax rate. And now with the new United States administration, 388 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:24,640 Speaker 1: it's absolutely um promising that we will have a solution 389 00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,239 Speaker 1: very soon, and I'm expecting it to have it this 390 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 1: summer and This is also the case with the question 391 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 1: how we could better tax the big global active corporates, 392 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:40,119 Speaker 1: especially those in the digital sector, the global digicultal platforms. 393 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,359 Speaker 1: And there are new proposals on the table and I'm 394 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:47,479 Speaker 1: quite optimistic that we also will be able to finish 395 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 1: this project. I'm going to ask you a few of 396 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,399 Speaker 1: the sort of rapid fire questions that we are getting. 397 00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,359 Speaker 1: Are you able to rule out a coalition government with 398 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 1: the left wing party Delinker following the elections. This will 399 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:10,600 Speaker 1: be a very different election to the ones we had 400 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 1: before the first time since the beginning of democracy of 401 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,840 Speaker 1: the Second World War. It is it is the case 402 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:22,119 Speaker 1: that no one is already the chancellor running for chancellery. 403 00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 1: It is also knew that the three parties that will 404 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,959 Speaker 1: be successful in the end will get a bit more 405 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:34,760 Speaker 1: as twenty and that it is quite difficult to see 406 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,879 Speaker 1: how a government could be built. My view is that 407 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,400 Speaker 1: I want to get the necessary popular support for being 408 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 1: able to build a government, and there will be a 409 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,560 Speaker 1: lot of options. Which one of them is successful also 410 00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 1: depends on those that could be partners, because it is 411 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:55,800 Speaker 1: absolutely clear for me that we have to establish a 412 00:27:55,880 --> 00:28:00,200 Speaker 1: government that is looking for growth, that is able to 413 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:05,359 Speaker 1: support a good fiscal strategy for the future that is 414 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:10,439 Speaker 1: able to developed the Open Union. But listening to that, 415 00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:14,000 Speaker 1: it sounds like you would not rule out any partner, 416 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:16,919 Speaker 1: or certainly not the Left Wing Party, because when you 417 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,359 Speaker 1: talk about options at the moment, if you look at 418 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:24,719 Speaker 1: the polls, there aren't very many clausible options for an 419 00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 1: SPD being a member of the coalition, littleone you being chancellor, 420 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:30,440 Speaker 1: but they would at least one of them would involve 421 00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:35,400 Speaker 1: the Left Party. It is clear that there are there 422 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 1: are good reasons why no one is now arguing about 423 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,920 Speaker 1: how exactly the next government will be built, because it 424 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 1: is depending on what the people decide, and what I 425 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 1: asked them for is giving me a popular vote making 426 00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 1: it possible to find to build a government that is 427 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:57,360 Speaker 1: good for the future of our country and good for Europe. 428 00:28:58,000 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 1: How are you going to cut through what's your when 429 00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 1: you're having your campaign meetings about how you're going to 430 00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 1: turn things around in the polls. Yeah, First, there are 431 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:11,479 Speaker 1: some very positive aspects that could be seen in many polls. 432 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,920 Speaker 1: We could understand that most of the people would think 433 00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 1: could think that I could be a very good chancellor 434 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 1: and if they could choose directly the chancellor. They would 435 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:25,240 Speaker 1: elect me. So this is the basis for the support 436 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 1: for my party as well, because I am the candidate 437 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:32,440 Speaker 1: of the Social Democratic Party. Realistically, though, does your party 438 00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,560 Speaker 1: need a time out of government to show people that 439 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 1: it is a distinct that it has a distinctive identity. 440 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:43,160 Speaker 1: Center left parties all over Europe are trying to establish 441 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 1: to find common ground on the key issues with voters 442 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 1: and they're struggling. Uh, your party has had the unique 443 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,080 Speaker 1: situation of having that happen while often being in government. 444 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,840 Speaker 1: Do you need a time out of power? No, we 445 00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,160 Speaker 1: don't need a time out of power. We needed I'm 446 00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,479 Speaker 1: in power where we are having the lete. So the 447 00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 1: biggest problem for Germany is that since tell two thousand 448 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 1: five we haven't been in the chancellery and there's no 449 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 1: realistic chance of you having that. This time around, I 450 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 1: think we will have a good chance to get the 451 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,600 Speaker 1: bolt off the people and to form a coalition, and 452 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,880 Speaker 1: this is what I'm running for. Sures, thank you very 453 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 1: much for joining us again. Thank you. That really is 454 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:34,840 Speaker 1: it for this episode of Stephonomics. I'll be back next 455 00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:36,880 Speaker 1: week with a lot more from around the world. And 456 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 1: should you feel the need. You can always get more 457 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:43,760 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Economics by following at Economics on Twitter. This 458 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 1: episode was produced by Magnus Henrison, with special thanks to 459 00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 1: Sean Donnan, premicition a do, Tom Morlick, and the German 460 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,640 Speaker 1: Vice Chancellor and Minister of Finance or Left Schotz. The 461 00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:58,240 Speaker 1: executive producer Stephonomics is Mike Sasso and the head of 462 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:13,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcasts franchise Can Eat mm hmmmm.