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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl podcast. I'm Paul swing you.

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Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits. Each day

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Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for

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Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or

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Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple

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Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as

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Speaker 1: that Bloomberg dot com. There's a huge focus right now

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Speaker 1: on the fate of small businesses. Is their hard hit

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Speaker 1: by the shutdowns from the coronavirus pandemic. Someone who's very

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Speaker 1: clean clued in to exactly how these businesses operate and

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Speaker 1: how they can survive and thrive going forward. As Jim mccalvey,

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Speaker 1: co founder of Square, that incredibly popular payment system electronic

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Speaker 1: payment system used by many small businesses, also the author

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Speaker 1: of a new book, The Innovation Stack, Building an unbeatable business,

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Speaker 1: one crazy idea at a time. He has a former

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Speaker 1: glass blower who ended up founding one of the pre

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Speaker 1: eminent mobile online payment systems. Jim, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for being with us today. I wanted to start with

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Speaker 1: just anecdotally, given your conversations with small businesses, how hard

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Speaker 1: hit have they been from this whole episode? Oh my god, Lisa,

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Speaker 1: They've been tremendously hard hit. UM, and everybody knows it

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Speaker 1: it's uh, but nobody knows the extent of it. We

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Speaker 1: are watching, uh, some businesses closed, We're watching employees and panics. UM,

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Speaker 1: It's it's bad. And I'm actually still in the art

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Speaker 1: world and I still run a small studio and my

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Speaker 1: staff was terrified, UM, because we had to shut down.

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Speaker 1: So why is this time different than other times when

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Speaker 1: you talk about financial downturns? So this is the first

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Speaker 1: time there's been a voluntary shutdown of a healthy economy.

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Speaker 1: So I'm also a director of the St. Louis Federal Reserve,

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Speaker 1: and so I get to see the economic data almost

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Speaker 1: in real time. And we had a very healthy economy

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Speaker 1: going in UM, and we elected to voluntarily closed down, uh,

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Speaker 1: the economy to solve a medical problem. Uh. This is

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Speaker 1: different than most recessions. Most recessions just happened because there's

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Speaker 1: some structural problem in the economy. There was none in

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Speaker 1: this case. What happened was we had this medical emergency

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Speaker 1: and to fight the disease, we had to close the economy.

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Speaker 1: But it's different. So yes, you you do run an

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Speaker 1: art studio and you are a glassblower, I believe based

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Speaker 1: on your bio. Yet you did also found co found Square,

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Speaker 1: which is one of the key technological advances for a

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Speaker 1: lot of small businesses. And I'm just wondering the role

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Speaker 1: of tech at this moment when so much business is

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Speaker 1: going online. How are you seeing this sort of transformative

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Speaker 1: moment for small businesses in the relationship with their tech infrastructure. Well,

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Speaker 1: they're super defended on the tech infrastructure. As a matter

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Speaker 1: of fact. Square has been rolling out new products almost

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Speaker 1: every day to help small businesses adapt, and we're putting

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Speaker 1: new products in their hands. Uh, you know, probably one

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Speaker 1: a week now, allowing restaurants to turn to a delivery

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Speaker 1: and pick up, uh, making our software free for companies

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Speaker 1: that need it, and basically look um, this in some

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Speaker 1: ways helps companies that have modernized their processes to use

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Speaker 1: electronic payments, to use electronic record keeping, to use electronic meetings,

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Speaker 1: to use distributed workforces, and it's forcing a lot of

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Speaker 1: other companies to get with the program going forward. I'm

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Speaker 1: just wondering, do you expect a lot of these smaller

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Speaker 1: businesses to go out of business completely or do you

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Speaker 1: think that they'll just be a sort of transformation as

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Speaker 1: far as weeding out the most successful successful ones. Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's certainly going to be a winnowing down

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Speaker 1: of companies that were not well prepared for this, But

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Speaker 1: the real tragedy is that there were a lot of

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Speaker 1: healthy businesses that are getting caught in it. The government's

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Speaker 1: trying to step in. One of my great concerns is

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Speaker 1: that the government is doing a lot of their aid

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Speaker 1: through uh sort of antiquated paper based systems, and it's

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Speaker 1: not going to get the money to the people that

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Speaker 1: need it and the businesses need it fast enough. So

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Speaker 1: at Square we're working diligently to try to give them

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Speaker 1: the tools for instantaneous or near real time um action

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Speaker 1: if the government chooses to do that. Wait. So, in

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Speaker 1: other words, you're working with the government right now to

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Speaker 1: try to make these payments electronic. Yes, so, I'm Jack

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Speaker 1: said a tweet about this a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: But basically, our whole company stands ready to give whatever

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Speaker 1: aid we can because we've had the electronic rails working

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Speaker 1: for several years, and they work with millions of businesses

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Speaker 1: and scaling for millions to tens of millions or hundreds

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Speaker 1: of millions is not as difficult as scaling from nothing

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Speaker 1: to you know, project number one. Jim McKelvey, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much for being with us and for sharing your insights.

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Speaker 1: Jim McKelvey as co founder of Square based in St.

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Speaker 1: Louis author of The Innovation Stack, Building an Unbeatable Business,

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Speaker 1: One Crazy Idea at a Time, a new book that's out.

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Speaker 1: He also is a glassblower, which I really love as

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Speaker 1: somebody who used to do sculpture a long time ago.

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Speaker 1: One of the key questions for markets going forward is

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Speaker 1: whether inflation will actually start to pick up this time. Typically,

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Speaker 1: in the past, the idea has been theoretically, when governments

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Speaker 1: print money that leads to inflation. It didn't happen in

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Speaker 1: two thousand nine. People are expecting it not to happen again.

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Speaker 1: But are they wrong. Maria Murphy joining us now vice

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Speaker 1: president and portfolio manager at Lomas Sales, which oversees nearly

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Speaker 1: three hundred billion dollars and is based in Boston. Mara

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Speaker 1: Maura there This to me is one of the most

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Speaker 1: important debates at a time when people are basically shrugging

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Speaker 1: off the concept of inflation. Going forward, even as governments

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Speaker 1: and central banks unleash some of the biggest financial packages

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Speaker 1: ever to hit markets. Do you think this time is

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Speaker 1: different the two nine financial crisis and that this actually

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Speaker 1: will spurf inflation? Hi, Lisa, thanks for having me. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's certainly different this time, and that the

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Speaker 1: pace and the size that the FED is is going

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Speaker 1: and buying right now is drastically different than any of

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Speaker 1: the other quei's we've ever seen. They're really doing this

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Speaker 1: at what I'd call a sprint pace, and we need

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Speaker 1: to get ourselves into this marathon mindset rather than the

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Speaker 1: frint we've been in, because they need As you see

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Speaker 1: this week, they're already starting to taper the pace of

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Speaker 1: their purchases and we'll see how the market responds to that.

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Speaker 1: So far, as you mentioned that break evens are off

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Speaker 1: their lows um which suggests that the market is no

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Speaker 1: longer pricing that real fear of deflation or disinflationary risk,

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Speaker 1: but we're still well off the levels of being afraid

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Speaker 1: of inflation to come. I think the thing to watch

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Speaker 1: that will be key to see if we do good

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Speaker 1: inflation this time with all the easing, is what happens

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Speaker 1: with the dollar. We need to watch for that excess

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Speaker 1: dollar liquidity in the market, and given the amount that

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Speaker 1: we've seen with increased swap lines from the FED, a

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Speaker 1: weaker dollar would finally perhaps give us that impotence for

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Speaker 1: inflation pressure. But I think that's a lot further down

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Speaker 1: the line, and right now we need to be focused

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Speaker 1: on the pace of the seed byon Alright. So, I

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Speaker 1: guess inflation is sort of a hard concept to to

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Speaker 1: get your mind around because there are a lot of

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Speaker 1: different components to it, and there are a lot of

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Speaker 1: potential scenarios in terms of whether the financial package from

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Speaker 1: the FED continues to accelerate or if it does slow down.

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Speaker 1: As you talked about, there is a much more concrete

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Speaker 1: issue of bond yields, and we're looking right now at

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Speaker 1: tenure yields at at three quarters of a percent, and

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Speaker 1: you're seeing people expect that rate to actually go down

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Speaker 1: over time, even as the US prints unprecedented amount amounts

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Speaker 1: of these securities. At what point will that increase in

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Speaker 1: supply lead to higher yields. That's the ultimate question here,

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Speaker 1: right is timing on all of this, And I think

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Speaker 1: unfortunately we still have too many unknown to really have

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Speaker 1: a good sense of when that actually might occur. The

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Speaker 1: Fed is talking about issuing T bills right now for

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Speaker 1: um supply to pay for this stimulus, but eventually they

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Speaker 1: may need to issue on the back end of the curve,

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Speaker 1: which I don't think we have a lot of natural

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Speaker 1: demand there right now with levels as low as you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: because people are starting to step into some of the

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Speaker 1: new I G issuants rather than to day in the

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Speaker 1: safe case incursory assets, but volatility remains really high in

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Speaker 1: this asset class. The set has improved liquidity, but ball

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Speaker 1: is still there. And so I think, you know, given

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Speaker 1: that we're likely to see bigger move in per day,

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Speaker 1: and the range of yields that we're going to be

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Speaker 1: in will likely be wider than we've been used to.

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Speaker 1: So when we used to trade in a range of

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Speaker 1: twenty to thirty basis points on ten or thirty year yields,

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Speaker 1: now I think that range could be a lot wider

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Speaker 1: while we try to figure out where the right level

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Speaker 1: is based on the supply that's coming and based on

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Speaker 1: the buying that's happening. The volatility has pretty significant consequences,

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Speaker 1: not only for the Treasury, market, but also for credit.

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Speaker 1: And I'm wondering what this does for investment grade bonds

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Speaker 1: even as they're back stopped by the Federal Reserve, given

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Speaker 1: the fact that they're more sensitive than ever to the

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Speaker 1: fluctuations in the volatility and treasury yields. Yeah, one of

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Speaker 1: the patterns we've seen over the last week is that

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Speaker 1: all of this new ig issuance that's come to market, Um,

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Speaker 1: you have deals that are highly oversubscribed. Um. I'd liken

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Speaker 1: it to all of us right now, rushing to get

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Speaker 1: that online order. We all wake up early and we're

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Speaker 1: trying to, you know, secture that online delivery for our

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Speaker 1: groceries every day. And are you are you actually succeeding,

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Speaker 1: by the way, are you? Are you? It's so hard,

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Speaker 1: isn't this? I have I've failed every single day. I

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Speaker 1: actually have to go out, get get geared up in

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Speaker 1: my hasmat suit and go to the grocery store. But

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Speaker 1: carry out please. So you know, if we think of

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Speaker 1: it like that, we have this rush for everyone going

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Speaker 1: to the same space right now because that's where the

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Speaker 1: FED is supporting. So you know that old adage of

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Speaker 1: don't fight the bed persist here. So you want to

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Speaker 1: be in i G and that UM demand for these

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Speaker 1: high quality, large deals is really persisting and I think

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Speaker 1: that will continue UM and we've only probably just seen

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Speaker 1: the start of that, and I think to strengthen the

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Speaker 1: secondary will be the next order of operations after all

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Speaker 1: of this new issue. So it sounds like you're overweight

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Speaker 1: investment grade? Is that right? Yeah, We're We're constructive on

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Speaker 1: the new issuants here, and we like the level of

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Speaker 1: yields after the backup, and I think given the natural

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Speaker 1: buyer and the stead it's a place we definitely like

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Speaker 1: and we'll be adding to What about high yield UM,

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Speaker 1: it's a little bit harder to source high heeled paper

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Speaker 1: right now. Uh, We're we're having we're seeing that UM

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Speaker 1: i G with that excess supply is a little bit

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Speaker 1: easier for us to be buying right now UM in

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Speaker 1: a high yield. I'm just not sure we have a

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Speaker 1: good sense yet, UM. Given the unknowns with the recovery

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Speaker 1: of you know, how how long will this last? We

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Speaker 1: how fast can company is really resume normal operations and

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Speaker 1: how big and how you know, what's the magnitude of

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Speaker 1: this recession and not knowing those unknowns, it's hard to

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Speaker 1: really assess recovery values and highlo companies, and so I

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Speaker 1: guess we're just not ready to say that the uh,

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Speaker 1: the bounce is real here yet, so we're not adding

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Speaker 1: to their respectors at the mall. That's really compelling to me.

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Speaker 1: You said it's difficult to source paper. In other words,

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Speaker 1: has a dramatic move that we've seen been largely on paper,

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Speaker 1: and nobody really wants to solidify their losses by actually

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Speaker 1: selling the underlying bonds. Is that is that what you're saying.

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Speaker 1: Liquidity is definitely improving across the board across most markets,

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Speaker 1: but I think it's it's perhaps not necessarily people stepping

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Speaker 1: in to buy yet in large size. UM, this this

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Speaker 1: sell off has happened very quickly. I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: less than a month, or just about a month is

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Speaker 1: how long it took for us to hit the bottom

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Speaker 1: here if we did hit the ball them, And that's,

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Speaker 1: you know, the fastest pace we've seen in a long time. UM.

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Speaker 1: Back in eight seven, it took about seventy five days

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Speaker 1: for the peak to trough to occur, and this time

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Speaker 1: it took less than thirty. So given that it just

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Speaker 1: happened so quickly, I'd be shocked if there isn't more

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Speaker 1: downside to come, and I think in light of that,

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Speaker 1: it's it's unwise to be stepping into risk here. Maura Murphy,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. Mor Murphy,

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Speaker 1: vice president and portfolio manager at Loomis Sales with almost

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Speaker 1: three billion dollars under management, based in Boston. I'm Lisa Abramoy.

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Speaker 1: It's by co host and colleague Paul Sweeney Off today

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Speaker 1: from New York. This is Bloomberg Markets. There's a keig

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Speaker 1: question in the transformation of the US economy right now

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Speaker 1: that's going on in the heels of the coronavirus, and

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Speaker 1: that is what is the state of the consumer? Will

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Speaker 1: they be able to maintain the recovery that we saw

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Speaker 1: that will have to happen yet again and may not

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Speaker 1: happen yet again for another couple of years. Joining us

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Speaker 1: now is David Coudla, chief executive officer and chief investment

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Speaker 1: strategist at Mainstay Capital Management. David, this has been a

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Speaker 1: sort of key talking point for years that the American

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Speaker 1: consumer is very strong. Right now we are seeing an

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Speaker 1: absolute demolition in confidence among American consumers. How pivotal are

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Speaker 1: they in the recovery from this period of time that

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Speaker 1: we're looking at, it will be very pivotal highly. So

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Speaker 1: the you know, the consumer is two thirds of the

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Speaker 1: U S economy. And how the consumer uh comes out

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Speaker 1: of this in terms of their UH, purchasing habits, the

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Speaker 1: consumer sediment, consumer confidence, how soon consumers are willing to

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Speaker 1: re engage the economy, how unemployment affects their behavior coming

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Speaker 1: out of this, how pay cuts because some of the

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Speaker 1: you know, there are different impacts on different parts of

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Speaker 1: different demographics across the US. We have some that are

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Speaker 1: going to be unemployed for a certain period of time,

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Speaker 1: and the fiscal stimulus packages addressing some of that, uh

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Speaker 1: in a meaningful way. UH. There are others that are

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Speaker 1: going to just have haircuts in their pay A lot

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Speaker 1: of the automotive industry here in Michigan have pay deferrals

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Speaker 1: um that or pay cuts just straight pay cuts that

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Speaker 1: will go on for months, and so that's going to

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Speaker 1: be affecting, you know, consumer discretionary activity. So UH, it's

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Speaker 1: yet to be seen, you know, so much of this

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Speaker 1: is unknown, but it will be key and how the

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Speaker 1: consumer behaves coming out of or on the other side

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Speaker 1: of the coronavirus restarted the economy. Yeah, I was looking

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Speaker 1: at a story out of the Financial Times, the survey

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Speaker 1: that they conducted this. It came out today that nearly

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Speaker 1: three quarters of Americans say that coronavirus pandemic has reduced

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Speaker 1: the family's income nearly a quarter. So their household income

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Speaker 1: had been cut very significantly, according to this poll. And

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Speaker 1: you're very much at the epicenter of that when you

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Speaker 1: look at the auto industry in Detroit and how much

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Speaker 1: has just come to a complete halt. How much long

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Speaker 1: term damage will that do? I mean, that's sort of

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Speaker 1: a key question. I'm wondering how quickly can people revive,

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Speaker 1: not just from a balancee perspective, but from a confidence perspective.

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Speaker 1: Is there any kind of historical precedent. I don't know

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Speaker 1: that there is. You know, this is the first recession

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Speaker 1: that's been brought on by um, a pandemic that's been

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Speaker 1: brought on by any kind of disease or virus. So

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Speaker 1: it's unknown in that regard um. You know, we have

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Speaker 1: some predictability and that you know, we came into this

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Speaker 1: with a really an economy on pretty good footing in

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Speaker 1: terms of being at fifty year unemployment, we had rising wages,

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Speaker 1: we had a strong relatively strong consumer coming into this,

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Speaker 1: and then the economy didn't shut down or slow down

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Speaker 1: under normal business conditions are a normal business cycle. It

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Speaker 1: was an artificial restraint. We the government actually shut down

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Speaker 1: the economy and we're then we're going to fire back up.

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Speaker 1: But there's some natural things or natural or human factors

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Speaker 1: that have to happen for that to reoccur. So there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of unknowns in that. As an investor,

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Speaker 1: how do you trade around this? Well? I think for now,

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Speaker 1: I think that you know, these last two days, there

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Speaker 1: is a lot of optimism about you know, what we

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Speaker 1: saw over the weekend in New York City, the improvement

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Speaker 1: of the last several days in Europe, specifically in in

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Speaker 1: France and Spain, in Italy, um, and so there's confidence

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Speaker 1: about the number of new cases slowing. But uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: we know that there we have a long way to

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Speaker 1: go here and the economic impacts are still to be realized.

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Speaker 1: So I think that investors need to be careful about

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Speaker 1: thinking that this is this is behind us, and we

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Speaker 1: think that it's still important to have, you know, some

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Speaker 1: defensive posturing in play, some hedges, in place in your portfolio,

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Speaker 1: because there's there's still volatility ahead. We still got some

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Speaker 1: some pretty bad ecademic numbers to come out, and uh

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Speaker 1: first quarter earnings and even second quarter earnings that are

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Speaker 1: gonna be pretty abysmal. So do you think that you'd

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Speaker 1: be uh selling this rally and that you expect the

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Speaker 1: US equity markets to test new lows. I don't know

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Speaker 1: I full test new lows, but I think we've certainly

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Speaker 1: got a down draft, uh more of a down draft

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Speaker 1: from from some point here. I don't know how much

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Speaker 1: further this rally can go. We're seeing it fade a

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Speaker 1: little bit as we get into trading today. You know,

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Speaker 1: very strong rally yesterday, Futures were strong again this morning,

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Speaker 1: started to fade a little bit. It's it's it's uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, come and go today through trading this morning.

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Speaker 1: But um, you know, we we see, you know, we're

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Speaker 1: in a what we're calling right now an event driven

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Speaker 1: bear market, not a not a secular bear market, not

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Speaker 1: a you know, we don't think that this is a

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Speaker 1: more than too an O eight O nine top type

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Speaker 1: of bear market, that this is still just an event

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Speaker 1: driven beer market that will just last a few short

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Speaker 1: months and not a couple of years or or or

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Speaker 1: uh a year or longer. We think that we're coming

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Speaker 1: out of this and by the end of the year

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Speaker 1: the economy and stock market will be on pretty good

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Speaker 1: footing again. Um, that's yet to be seen, but that's

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Speaker 1: that's our forecast right now. The economy and the stock

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Speaker 1: market are two very different things. And there's a feeling

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Speaker 1: that the stock market might recovery, but the economy the

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Speaker 1: economic hit. Very few people at this point are are

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Speaker 1: putting conviction behind a V shaped recovery in the economy.

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Speaker 1: What gives you confidence that this will just be a

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Speaker 1: couple of months and then all those jobs will come back.

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Speaker 1: I guess it's it's it really comes down to, and

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Speaker 1: we don't know right it. It comes down to how

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Speaker 1: long the social distancing needs to go on, um, how

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Speaker 1: the data coming in relative to the number of new cases.

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Speaker 1: And then what we talked about earlier on how uh

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Speaker 1: the consumers re engage the economy, how people get back

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Speaker 1: to work. Um, the the uh you know, continuation of

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Speaker 1: or the continuation of unemployment for a period of time.

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Speaker 1: The longer goes, the more businesses to go out of business,

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Speaker 1: the more people that are suffering that much longer makes

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Speaker 1: it that much harder to restart the economy and and

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Speaker 1: starts to manifest into longer term effects. That's the that's

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Speaker 1: the risk. So the sooner we restart the economy, and

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Speaker 1: I'm not suggesting we do that, it's got to be

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Speaker 1: health and safety first. But the sooner we restart the economy,

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Speaker 1: the less the effects will be. If you look at

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Speaker 1: China as a model, um and as much as we

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Speaker 1: believe the data and the recovery, but there's you know,

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Speaker 1: there's measurements that we're taking that are being taken to

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Speaker 1: to see that what the real recovery rate is there

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Speaker 1: and how much factories are actually running and so forth.

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Speaker 1: But they really did have somewhat of a V shaped

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Speaker 1: recovery in a matter of a few months from the

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Speaker 1: time they went down to come back up. They're not

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Speaker 1: running it full production now. It's questionable as to what

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Speaker 1: market sign ship too, but you know there's a model

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Speaker 1: where it all happened literally in a few months. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: David Couldla, thank you so much for being with us.

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Speaker 1: David Couldla, chief executive officer and chief investment strategist at

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Speaker 1: Mainstay Capital Management with nearly three billion dollars joining us

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Speaker 1: from Michigan. There's a question right now about the progress

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Speaker 1: of the coronavirus and some of the measures put in

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Speaker 1: place to limit a limited spread in Europe. They appear

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Speaker 1: to be working. However, we did see an increase in

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Speaker 1: the number of deaths in Spain, and there is a

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Speaker 1: question right now around the leadership of the United Kingdom.

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Speaker 1: Is Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister is still in the

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Speaker 1: hospital and in an intensive care unit being treated for

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Speaker 1: the coronavirus. For some insight on what we should take

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Speaker 1: away from this episode, let's bring in to raise Raphael Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: opinion editor covering European politics and economics. Trace, of course,

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Speaker 1: our thoughts are with Boris Johnson, hoping that he does

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Speaker 1: recover from the virus. On a bigger level, though, is

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Speaker 1: there anything that we can take away in terms of

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Speaker 1: the leadership of the United Kingdom throughout this epidemic as

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Speaker 1: well as beyond and what the future brings in terms

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Speaker 1: of Boris Johnson's government, Well, the UK does not, like

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Speaker 1: the US, have a vice president or vice prime minister role.

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Speaker 1: There's no constitutionally designated number two at present. Foreign Secretary

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Speaker 1: Dominique rob a cabinet member and one time rival to

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Speaker 1: Boris Johnson, has been designated as his stand in for

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Speaker 1: day to day policy meetings, and the cabinet is says

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Speaker 1: it's taking decisions by consensus now that can continue for

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Speaker 1: a while. Should Johnson become UH seriously incapacitated, should he

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Speaker 1: sign UH, then it's a different process. The Cabinet would

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Speaker 1: then choose a member to recommend to the Queen to

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Speaker 1: become prime minister. There's no acting prime ministerial role in

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Speaker 1: the UK constitution. They would simply become prime minister. But

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Speaker 1: I think that's sort of getting ahead of ourselves. Johnson,

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Speaker 1: the news out this afternoon is in good spirits and stable.

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Speaker 1: He's not on a ventilator, as you said in your introduction,

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Speaker 1: so the hope is that he will be able to

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Speaker 1: return to full work. Um whether that will happen in

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Speaker 1: a few days or much further into the future isn't clear.

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Speaker 1: And Soris forgive me for being I don't want to

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Speaker 1: say cynical, but cynical. We got communication out of the

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Speaker 1: United Kingdom the forest Johnson was totally fine, they were

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Speaker 1: mild symptoms. Then we got information that he was just

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Speaker 1: brought to the hospital for a precautionary check. It was

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Speaker 1: just a precautionary measure. Stopped getting your nose. A lot

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Speaker 1: of joint about it. It's no big deal. Then we

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Speaker 1: hear he's in the ICU, but he's not an a ventilator.

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Speaker 1: He's fine in everything is copasetic. Is there a trust

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Speaker 1: issue here or you know, is this just sort of

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Speaker 1: a protocol for a leader of a nation. Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I wish I could answer that with any great certainty.

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Speaker 1: There are moments when it has felt a little bit um,

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Speaker 1: you know, like uh, you know, like watching the old

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Speaker 1: Soviet leaders and wondering what's happening. I think what we

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Speaker 1: have to bear in mind is that this virus um

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Speaker 1: operates in in sort of strange and mysterious ways. There

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Speaker 1: are cases where a COVID nineteen uh suffer will the

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Speaker 1: experiencing fairly moderate symptoms that persist and within hours it

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Speaker 1: gets much worse. So it may be that uh, the

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Speaker 1: the Downing Street was putting a positive spin on things.

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Speaker 1: And it may also be that the Prime Minister, who

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Speaker 1: we know, uh, you know, we know from his biographer

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Speaker 1: that he doesn't believe in illness. He tends to work

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Speaker 1: through illnesses. He doesn't really tolerate it in his staff

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Speaker 1: that he may have just been pushing himself, not being

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Speaker 1: quite um, you know, as as uh as careful about

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Speaker 1: you know, looking after himself and resting, and things might

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Speaker 1: have deteriorated quite quickly. I think we're not going to

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Speaker 1: know that for a while. The Downing Street is going

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Speaker 1: out of its way right now to say that they

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Speaker 1: are being transparent. They're updating the media regularly. Um. But

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Speaker 1: that's a legitimate question and many here are asking it.

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Speaker 1: Just shifting gears to the continent of Europe, there is

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Speaker 1: some talk about reopening parts of certain economies as the

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00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 1: virus does appear to be plateau ing when it comes

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00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,199
Speaker 1: to the account of deaths in new cases in certain hotspots,

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00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 1: I'm wondering what the latest is on that. Well, the

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00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:44,640
Speaker 1: epidemiological curve is at a different place, or let's put

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00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 1: it at this way. Different countries are on a different

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00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: places on that curve, and those that have taken earlier

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00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:56,360
Speaker 1: measures or whose um death rates and infection rates are slowing,

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00:24:56,400 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 1: are now starting to contemplate um loosening those measure us.

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00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 1: But it's a very uh, it's a very finally balanced

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Speaker 1: decision because there is no vaccine. As we know, there

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Speaker 1: won't be a vaccine most likely for a while, and

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00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 1: there's always a risk that in loosening UH controls you

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00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 1: see another surge of infections, and then it then becomes harder,

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Speaker 1: as the a team that advises Boris Johnson keeps saying,

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00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 1: it becomes harder to re reimpose those controls after people

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00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 1: sort of you know, get a taste of of having

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00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 1: some freedom. So I think we're likely to see this

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Speaker 1: progressing by fits and starts. Perhaps some schools will reopen,

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Speaker 1: or certain um you know, still fairly essential businesses will

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00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 1: be allowed to operate, not but people will still be

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00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 1: encouraged to work from home and that sort of thing.

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Speaker 1: There's also discussion of issuing immunity passport, so those who

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Speaker 1: have tested positive in the past, have had COVID nineteen

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00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:57,360
Speaker 1: or who antibody tests show UM have had it, even

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00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,360
Speaker 1: if they didn't experience symptoms, would be given so kind

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00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: of certification so that they could use public transport, return

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00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 1: to work, and communicate to you know, to anyone that

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00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 1: they are not UM, that they are not infectious. But

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Speaker 1: that depends on getting the disease being a sort of

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00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 1: one and done rather than something that can you can

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Speaker 1: be reinfected within a short period afterwards. Torereas Rafael. We

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Speaker 1: are all living in a science fiction novel at Toreas Rafael,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg opinion editor covering European politics and economics. It does

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00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 1: feel like it is a scene out of some sort

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00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: of surreal science fiction when everybody is being tested for

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00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: their immunological defense mechanisms to this virus going forward. Thanks

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00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg pen L podcast. You can

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00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

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00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at

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00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,239
Speaker 1: pt Sweeney and Lisa A. Bramoids I'm on Twitter at

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00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 1: Lisa A. Bramoids one before the podcast, you can always

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Speaker 1: catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio Monty