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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 2: thirty five, forty forty five fifty and the kick as

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Speaker 2: block the college football world stundar, Oh my goodness, he stumbled,

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Speaker 2: and football.

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Speaker 1: The lateral turn, the counter on the inside. Don't you

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Speaker 1: believe I'm not gonna table up the field to night.

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Speaker 1: It's not the size of the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 1: it's the size of the fight in the doll. What's

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Speaker 1: up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 1: Campus Podcast. This is the Week fourteen college football betting preview.

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Speaker 1: I'm stucky and joining me as always my fellow BBOC

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Speaker 1: co host Colin Wilson. It's the last bowl slate of

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Speaker 1: the entire season. How did we get to this point? Luckily,

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Speaker 1: we have a ton of college football left, starting with

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Speaker 1: conference championship weekend next week. We'll be breaking down all

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Speaker 1: of those games. But this is the last time we'll

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Speaker 1: have a recap show. I mentioned this on our recap

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Speaker 1: show last week. Last time to get in them the voicemails,

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Speaker 1: last time to yell at us this season, Last time

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Speaker 1: to get in as a potential caller of the Year

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Speaker 1: and make the final cut of the voicemails at the

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Speaker 1: very end on our Gambling Heisman and Award show nine

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Speaker 1: to five to nine Badbeat. Don't forget about that. We're

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Speaker 1: recording this on Tuesday so that you guys can have

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Speaker 1: this out wherever you listen by Wednesday, since I know

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Speaker 1: a lot of you are traveling for Thanksgiving, So Happy

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Speaker 1: Thanksgiving to all of our listeners. We are thankful for

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Speaker 1: all of you for listening and sticking with us for

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Speaker 1: another year. Show is nothing without all of you. Going

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Speaker 1: on eight years now, Colin and I have done this.

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Speaker 1: Or if you're gonna be by yourself sweating, which I

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Speaker 1: will be, because it's just a normal week for me,

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Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers. We're thankful for you. My wife will

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Speaker 1: make me a duck. Though she makes a couple of ducks,

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Speaker 1: I get to have one for myself, have that on

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Speaker 1: the couch. So Colin, how goes it? And got any

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Speaker 1: plans for Thanksgiving? I do.

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Speaker 2: It's going great off of one of the best weekends

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Speaker 2: I've had the entire season, so I hope I can

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Speaker 2: keep the steam going. This is always the time of

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Speaker 2: year where Grammy and I, who's now ninety one get

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Speaker 2: to sit down and talk about is this a bowl

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Speaker 2: or is this not a bowl? More importantly, this holiday season,

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Speaker 2: I have two eighteen year olds. My oldest child is eighteen,

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Speaker 2: so it's like all of this has kind of hit me,

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Speaker 2: like empty nesting is right around the corner. Am I

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Speaker 2: ever going to see my kids on holidays again? They

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Speaker 2: could get girlfriends? It. Time is moving fast, not just

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Speaker 2: for this podcast, but life in general. In your lies

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Speaker 2: and forties. It just seems to fly.

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Speaker 1: It does. So we're gonna have a sort of a

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Speaker 1: different format today. We're gonna run through There's lots of

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Speaker 1: rivalry games, lots of conference, cultural clof implications. We'll go

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Speaker 1: through five market games. They'll be trash as always, small

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Speaker 1: trash card. This week we're gonna do Thursday Night Lights.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about Memphis too, Lane. We'll give our favorite

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Speaker 1: over dogs underdogs Conna talk Arkansas. But we're gonna try

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Speaker 1: to go through just as many games as possible, like

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Speaker 1: forty games, just rapid fire, to give you guys an

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Speaker 1: idea of what we're thinking. Some we gotta wait on

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Speaker 1: injury reports. It's early in the week, so there's a

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Speaker 1: bit more uncertainty than normal since we usually record this

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Speaker 1: on Thursday, so make sure you're tuned in to the

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Speaker 1: Action Network app. But let's get things started with the

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Speaker 1: marquee games of the weekend.

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Speaker 2: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 2: the marquee matchups. We'll all end up betting.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, it is of the opinion of

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Speaker 1: the Action Network production staff. They wanted me to let

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Speaker 1: all of you know that not playing the Egg Bowl

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Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving Day is an affront to college football end

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Speaker 1: or God. But let's start with the big game between

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Speaker 1: Michigan and Ohio State. Ohio State, with a win, can

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Speaker 1: clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis,

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Speaker 1: where they would face off in a rematch with Oregon.

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Speaker 1: Michigan sitting around a twenty and a half to twenty

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Speaker 1: one point favorite, unders taking some money down to forty

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Speaker 1: two and a half. Obviously a huge triple revenge game

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Speaker 1: for Ohio State. I'm sure they want to bury Michigan,

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Speaker 1: but you know, so I I know that you like

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Speaker 1: Ohio State, You're gonna maybe try to convince me. Iileen

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Speaker 1: Ohio Statespi's either Ohio State or nothing for me. I

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Speaker 1: make the spread over twenty one. But where I struggle

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Speaker 1: and I actually like the under two, I don't. I

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Speaker 1: don't really know am miss going to score? But I'm

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Speaker 1: afraid that Michigan that Ohio State will try to run

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Speaker 1: it up if they get the chance, just like they

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Speaker 1: did against Indiana for I don't know why, but that

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Speaker 1: ended up putting the game over. So that worries me

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Speaker 1: a bit. But where I struggle to potentially lay it

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Speaker 1: is I know Michigan is also going to show up

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Speaker 1: and be motivated for this game. Can their defensive line

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Speaker 1: dominate this game? That's what gives me pause. And this

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Speaker 1: game is gonna be super slow paced, like Ohio State's

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Speaker 1: not fast. Michigan's going to try to shorten the game

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Speaker 1: at all costs. But with Ohio State's offensive line injuries,

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Speaker 1: they couldn't run the ball last week. I mean they would.

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Speaker 1: They average like two and a half yards per carry

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Speaker 1: if you remove one long run. So they couldn't run

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Speaker 1: the ball. They're going to have to throw. Can Michigan's

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Speaker 1: defensive line cost some havoc? Will Howard Ken struggle under pressure?

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Speaker 1: And this game is just going to be a slow grind.

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Speaker 1: Michigan does have a really good kicker who can make

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Speaker 1: them from deep in a slow game with a low toe.

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Speaker 1: That's what gives me pause. But it's Ohio State or

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Speaker 1: nothing for me. You love the buck Eyes, I.

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Speaker 2: Love the Buckeyes. I've already bet the buck Eyes at

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Speaker 2: twenty and a half. I'd still i'd bet them at

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Speaker 2: twenty one. Not saying that I think that it's going

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Speaker 2: to be an easy cover. I definitely think there could

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Speaker 2: be a score in the fourth quarter that gets it

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Speaker 2: over and maybe pisses a lot of people off with

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Speaker 2: Michigan tickets. But I think, if you want to break

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Speaker 2: this down mathematically, am I supposed to believe this fifty

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Speaker 2: burger that Michigan put up against a lifeless Northwestern team?

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Speaker 2: They averaged six point two per carry, Donovan Edwards, Mulling,

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Speaker 2: they all had a really good day. Thirty four tempts,

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Speaker 2: five Russian tds. They went twelve for seventeen on third

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Speaker 2: and fourth down conversions against Northwestern, So Michigan certainly had

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Speaker 2: themselves a day. Maybe it's something the Sharon more needed,

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Speaker 2: just because the season has not been up to expectation,

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Speaker 2: So you have to ask, you know, could Michigan's heavy

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Speaker 2: inside zone. Can that dominate against Ohio States defensive line?

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Speaker 2: I think the answers no. Ohio States fifty four percent

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Speaker 2: success rate against inside zone. We saw that we had

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Speaker 2: this exact same discussion against Indiana. They were just fine.

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Speaker 2: They don't allow explosive plays whatsoever. And Ohio Sate dominates

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Speaker 2: teams that use man concepts, which Michigan has been known

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Speaker 2: to peel often due so I don't see an avenue

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Speaker 2: for Michigan to get even close to do what they

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Speaker 2: did offensively against Northwestern. There's no answer for Michigan against

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Speaker 2: Ohio State. Against inside zone, the Wolverines are forty two

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Speaker 2: percent success rate in defending inside zone on their defensive line.

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Speaker 2: The Buckeyes are sixty four percent success rate and running it.

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Speaker 2: I know there's some issues on the offensive line, but

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Speaker 2: we've kind of seen Will Howard have a coming out party,

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Speaker 2: and whether we're dumping off into the flats or Will

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Speaker 2: Howard becomes a bigger part of this offense, which he

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Speaker 2: does in the biggest games, he runs more. I think

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Speaker 2: Will Howard is going to have a couple of wrinkles

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Speaker 2: in here that maybe Michigan hasn't seen. There are strong

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Speaker 2: signals in the market that this thing's going under forty

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Speaker 2: four down to forty three. Personally, I make it forty nine.

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Speaker 2: And I think this thing has gone over like every

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Speaker 2: iteration of the last ten seasons. I mean, this has

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Speaker 2: been an over series all the way, and I think,

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Speaker 2: if you want to step back from the numbers, there

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Speaker 2: are things percolating between this rivalry that makes me think

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Speaker 2: if either team gets a lead, they're just going to

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Speaker 2: keep piling it all And now it might be Ohio

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Speaker 2: State's turn. You could look at some comments that Ryan

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Speaker 2: Day has made this week about how personal this game is.

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Speaker 2: You can look read into that a little bit and

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Speaker 2: figure out there's been some negative recruiting against him by

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Speaker 2: Michigan and the Connor Stallings thing does not sit well

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Speaker 2: with anybody at Ohio State. So I think if there

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Speaker 2: is a chance to run this up, it's absolutely going

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Speaker 2: to be ran up with no hesitation, even with the

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Speaker 2: Big Ten Championship next week. So I like Ohio State

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Speaker 2: on the side. The only reason I haven't played the

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Speaker 2: team total over is because it's Tuesday as we're recording this.

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Speaker 2: Those won't usually come out till midweek, So another data

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Speaker 2: point you might want to consider either team total over

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Speaker 2: or the Ohio State side.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the Iron Bowl between

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Speaker 1: Auburn and Alabama. We go keep out romance until we

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Speaker 1: do something stupid. Eg healed oh Alabama an eleven and

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Speaker 1: a half point favorite total fifty two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Alabama off that embarrassing loss at Oklahoma, Auburn coming off

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Speaker 1: the thrilling win against Texas A and M in four overtimes.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to bet Auburn. I really wanted fourteen because

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Speaker 1: I feel like if I'm betting Auburn, now you know

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Speaker 1: you're really like buying high and selling low. Album is

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Speaker 1: not completely out of the college wall playoff picture yet

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Speaker 1: they haven't. It's not they're not a favorite to get there.

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Speaker 1: But I know that they know that they need margin.

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Speaker 1: So that's that's going to be important. And like a

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Speaker 1: lot of these games this weekend, in more games because

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Speaker 1: there's an expanded college football playoffield. So Alabama is not

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Speaker 1: going to take the foot off the gas if they

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Speaker 1: have an opportunity to do so. So that's the question.

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Speaker 1: Are they going to be able to build a big

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Speaker 1: lead here? Some things worth noting because I think this

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Speaker 1: is ultimately a pass for me. I mean, Auburn's defense

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Speaker 1: is really good, but they were on the field for

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Speaker 1: like ninety plus plays last week. Is there some fatigue

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Speaker 1: there on the other side? Alabama losing loss in their linebacker,

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Speaker 1: their green dot that you could see the effect of

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Speaker 1: that last week. It was impactful. He's out for the year.

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Speaker 1: I think that changes how they used John Campbell and

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Speaker 1: you get more Jefferson in there is now going to

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Speaker 1: probably be the green dot. And I think the entire

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Speaker 1: defense suffers in the past rush in particular. But just

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Speaker 1: given the spot, we've seen Alabama at their best look

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Speaker 1: really good. They're just really inconsistent. This is probably a

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Speaker 1: pass for me. I wish it wasn't put a gun

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Speaker 1: to my head. I take Auburn, but I think this

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Speaker 1: is probably in the proper range. Do you have a

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Speaker 1: take care?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I do. Like Auburn haven't played it because why

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Speaker 2: would I at a dead number. I'd rather take Auburn

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Speaker 2: plus eleven instead of hanging on a dead number hoping

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Speaker 2: it goes back to thirteen, which I don't think it will.

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Speaker 2: I believe there is a pattern in trying to figure

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Speaker 2: out when to fade Alabama. But before we get to that.

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Speaker 2: I think Auburn when we get into off season activities

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Speaker 2: about what we do with power ratings. Second order win

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Speaker 2: total is the very first driver that moves the team's

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Speaker 2: power rating. Auburn has five wins on the season. From

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Speaker 2: a second order of win total perspective, they should be

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Speaker 2: seven point seven. They are much better than their record.

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Speaker 2: So the question is can Bama's defense stop Jarques Hunter

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Speaker 2: the ground attack that's eighth and success rate and fifteenth

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Speaker 2: and stuff I don't think so. Bama's one hundred and

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Speaker 2: eleventh the defensive stuff rate, They're one hundred and eleventh

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Speaker 2: the defensive lineyards. They are just not getting it done.

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Speaker 2: And you look at what Bama does is just a

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Speaker 2: middling success rate against all the run concepts. Auburn's going

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Speaker 2: to attack with inside zone and have a lot of success.

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Speaker 2: Look at the emergence of freshman white out cam Coleman.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he's busted out in the last two games.

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Speaker 2: I know it's been ULM and Texas A and M

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Speaker 2: Nearly forty percent of his targets have come in the

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Speaker 2: last two games, and he's averaging more than three yards

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Speaker 2: per oute run. So there is some trending stuff for

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Speaker 2: Auburn that says they're becoming multi dimensional on offense, which

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Speaker 2: is something we haven't seen. But the trend that I

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Speaker 2: talked about when do you fade Alabama? Did you know

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Speaker 2: Jalen Milroe has tallied a grand total less than thirty

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Speaker 2: rushing yards in their three losses. In their three losses

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Speaker 2: less than thirty rushing yards. So the whole thing is

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Speaker 2: if you can contain him and you can keep him

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Speaker 2: from running. Now, whether it was injury before or whether

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Speaker 2: it was really good defenses, it seems to be the formula. Well,

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Speaker 2: look what Auburn's done against these quarterbacks. Marcel Reed had

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Speaker 2: nine scrambles for forty seven yards, Diego Pavia fifteen attempts

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Speaker 2: for twenty one yards. And if you look at Michael

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Speaker 2: Hawkins junior way back in Week five with ou fives,

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Speaker 2: if you take out a forty eight yard busted play

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Speaker 2: that he had for a scramble, if you take that out,

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Speaker 2: he had five scrambles for thirteen yards. Auburn has been

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Speaker 2: fantastic at locking up mobile quarterbacks. Where do you stop

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Speaker 2: playing it? I make the number ten, So I think

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Speaker 2: it's really important when we podcast on Tuesday that we

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Speaker 2: set a boundary on some of these numbers. So I

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Speaker 2: would play eleven a half, I'd play eleven, play ten

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Speaker 2: and a half. I would stop at ten with Auburn. Yeah, no,

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Speaker 2: I agree with you. That's the handicap.

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Speaker 1: That's why I'm so regretful that I didn't play all

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Speaker 1: of them a team total under in Oklahoma last week,

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Speaker 1: because Oklahoma all year has done a great job containing

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Speaker 1: mobile quarterbacks, and they did so again last week.

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Speaker 2: Ravery S, guys are live and hut deep in the

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Speaker 2: high of Texas.

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Speaker 1: Let's stay in the SEC, and we got a big

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Speaker 1: one in College Station Texas at Texas A and M.

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Speaker 1: Texas A and M wins their College Wall playoff hopes

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Speaker 1: remain alive. Why because they go to the SEC championship game.

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Speaker 1: Texas also they win, they go to the SC champion GEAM.

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Speaker 1: I think after all the chasts, though, if Texas loses

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Speaker 1: this game, they're still in right. You agree with that, Yes,

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Speaker 1: so a little bit more motivation for Texas A and M.

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Speaker 1: This is a enormous rivalry, so I'm not kind of

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Speaker 1: implying that Texas won't show up here. But quin yours

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Speaker 1: is dealing with a bit of an ankle injury. Should

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Speaker 1: be good to go, but it was bother hm a bit.

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Speaker 1: At the end of last last week's game against Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: I like Texa am here played the plus six. I

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Speaker 1: make this like three and a half and you're going

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Speaker 1: to have There's a lot of things that are working,

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Speaker 1: a lot of ancillary factors that are working in Texas

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Speaker 1: A and m's favor number one special teams advantage Texas

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Speaker 1: A and M number two, huge crowd, huge special teams,

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Speaker 1: the crowd. I mean this as far as home field

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Speaker 1: is concerned, this is as big as it gets, like

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Speaker 1: going up to where and there's not a lot of travel,

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Speaker 1: but you know, you're talking like three eight thirty nine

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Speaker 1: close to four points of home field advantage here. I

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Speaker 1: also think that there's and what could that lead to?

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Speaker 1: Obviously noise communication issues, but there's There was a couple

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Speaker 1: comments by Elco in his presser this week when he

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Speaker 1: was asked about the lack of holding calls. Did you

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Speaker 1: hear this, Yeah, yep. So there hasn't been a holding

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Speaker 1: call against a Texas ATAM opponent in twenty eight quarters

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Speaker 1: twenty eight quarters. And they have a really good defensive

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Speaker 1: line they get held all the time. Yea, So it

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Speaker 1: was brought to the SEC's attention. Don't be surprised if

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Speaker 1: there's a couple holding calls in this game that end

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Speaker 1: up killing drives. That's not insignificant. So I think the

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Speaker 1: fact that that was brought up this week, it couldn't

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Speaker 1: end up.

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Speaker 2: It hit Sankeye's desk and Sankie had to have a

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Speaker 2: little phone call, you know.

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Speaker 1: It, yep. And I mean the SEC wouldn't be mad

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Speaker 1: if tex saying I won this game, I don't think.

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Speaker 1: But I also like this Texas team. I keep saying,

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Speaker 1: are we sure they are elite? Elite? There are six

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Speaker 1: teams that have a losing record in the SEC, and

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Speaker 1: one team is at five hundred. Texas has played five

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Speaker 1: of the six teams with a losing SEC record. They

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Speaker 1: played Florida, who's five hundred, at home with a Yale

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Speaker 1: third string quarterback and lots of other starters out, and

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Speaker 1: the one ranking they played was Georgia and they got

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Speaker 1: blown out at home. So like their schedule has been

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Speaker 1: extremely favorable, the offense is still just lacking something, just

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Speaker 1: lacking juice overall. And I think Texas A and M

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Speaker 1: can compete and potentially win in the trenches. Here, I

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Speaker 1: think this line is a bit too high. Give me

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Speaker 1: the Aggies, gig them.

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Speaker 2: Do you agree, full agreeance, put it on the board,

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Speaker 2: whatever we got to do here on the podcast listen,

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Speaker 2: I don't know. We've said this all year, and I've

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Speaker 2: known that we're going to be on Texas A and M.

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Speaker 2: And really it's from a pure physicality standpoint from what

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Speaker 2: I see in the trenches, the best case scenario for

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Speaker 2: Texas A and M is to get tech the Texas

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Speaker 2: offense into passing downs. The question is is can the

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Speaker 2: Aggies prevent getting gashed on ground Because there are teams

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Speaker 2: that have had success running straight up the gut avoiding

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Speaker 2: those edges and been able to get some traction moving

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Speaker 2: chains and getting Texas A and M off balance and

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Speaker 2: staying in standard downs. The worst place you can ever

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Speaker 2: be against Texas A and M's defense is in passing

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Speaker 2: downs because Nick Skurtin's going to come for you, a

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Speaker 2: Shamar Stewart's going to come for you. And when you

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Speaker 2: look at Texas, they have no advantages in the line

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Speaker 2: yards and stuff rate offensively at all, heavy tendency to

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Speaker 2: outside zone. There's some power in there with Contravia and

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Speaker 2: Weisner Jayden Blue. But the Texas A and M defense

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Speaker 2: highest success rate defending is outside zone. They're sixty two

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Speaker 2: percent against it. Texas gonna have a really hard time

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Speaker 2: running that edge. Shamar Stewart, who I thought with Skirtin

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Speaker 2: was one of the best edge rushers in the nation,

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Speaker 2: Well it turns out he's one of the highest run

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Speaker 2: defenders in all of PFF. So again, Nick s Curtin

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Speaker 2: really isn't too far behind. So you want to avoid

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Speaker 2: the edges against Texas A and M, and that's what

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Speaker 2: Texas runs. Texas doesn't really have inside zone that goes

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Speaker 2: over the guards and the centers. That's a real problem.

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Speaker 2: And then you look at Texas A and M from

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Speaker 2: a defense ands a havoc standpoint top ten third and

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Speaker 2: creating contested catches. I don't care if it's arch I

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Speaker 2: don't care if it's Quinn. They're going to have a

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Speaker 2: problem getting a clean window to throw two with their targets.

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Speaker 2: It's an aggressive secondary that jumps routes. You kind of

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Speaker 2: ask yourself, how is it that they are fifty fifth

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Speaker 2: in defensive pass EPA. I'm talking about Texas A and

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Speaker 2: M secondary. How is it they're outside the top fifty

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Speaker 2: and giving up explosives, but they're third in creating contested

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Speaker 2: catches because they're aggressive, they're hyper aggressive. They remind me

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Speaker 2: of TCU two years ago, like they're going to jump routes.

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Speaker 2: It could pay off, it could turn into a big

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Speaker 2: play for Texas. I wouldn't be surprised for Texas to

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Speaker 2: have a big play because of a jumped route. But

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Speaker 2: at the same time, those are sporadic, but it isn't consistent. TEXA,

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Speaker 2: A and M should absolutely push around the Texas defensive front.

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Speaker 2: That is forty six in the line yards That Texas

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Speaker 2: defensive line has been getting pushed around by opposing offensive lines.

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Speaker 2: This is texasing them all way. I think there's too

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Speaker 2: many points.

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Speaker 1: I agree with you. Yeah, and if you look like

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Speaker 1: even just where is the wow? The wow game for

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Speaker 1: Texas against Arkansas, a bit of a struggle against Vandy

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Speaker 1: win by three. You know, Florida, they had everything go

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Speaker 1: their way. Was a great spot of a third string quarterback.

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Speaker 2: Third string corners.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was just an ideal situation. But I just

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure that they're in that elite, elite tier

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Speaker 1: and for what it's worth, underdogs in SC conference games

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Speaker 1: forty seventeen to one against the spread seventy percent, best

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Speaker 1: of any conference over the past five years. Absolutely insane.

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Speaker 2: I bet that's higher on games that are after five PM.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean home field advantage in the SEC has

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Speaker 1: been trending up to over the past couple of years.

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Speaker 1: Probably random, but it's been pretty wild. South Carolina at

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Speaker 1: Clemson this is a big one. This is a potential

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Speaker 1: playing game because of all the chaos. The winner of

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Speaker 1: this game is going to get serious consideration for a

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Speaker 1: spot in the College Wall playoff. Clemson two and a

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Speaker 1: half point favored here, total forty nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: You know the I can't do anything with this game

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Speaker 1: yet it's two on Tuesday, because I need more clarity

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Speaker 1: on Clemson's injuries. They have injuries on the defensive side

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Speaker 1: of the ball, most importantly on the offensive line, so

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Speaker 1: their offensive line has been really banged up. They were

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Speaker 1: without their entire left side of the offensive line recently

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Speaker 1: Dabbo Hinton. They might get some guys back, but if

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Speaker 1: their offensive line is not at full strength. The biggest

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Speaker 1: mismatch in this game is the South Carolina defensive line

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Speaker 1: versus the Clemson offensive line. I do think both teams

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Speaker 1: can have success running the ball. Clemson's rush defensive rush

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Speaker 1: metrics are pretty underwhelming, but you know I don't can't.

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Speaker 1: I don't think I could get the South Carolina plus.

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Speaker 1: Wouldn't that South cound plus two and a half if

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Speaker 1: both teams are at full strength. I mean, Clemson has

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Speaker 1: a pretty damn good home field advantage as well. Just

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Speaker 1: talked about Texas A and M. Now, granted this game

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Speaker 1: is noon kick which does help South Carolina a bit,

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Speaker 1: but so if Clemson is not at full strength up front,

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Speaker 1: I would consider Texas A and M. Definitely would consider

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Speaker 1: them regardless at three. But I need to watch the

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Speaker 1: injuries here. What are you seeing in South Carolina Clemson?

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Speaker 2: I leen South Carolina. I really want the over in

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Speaker 2: this game. I'm expecting mass chaos in this game. From

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Speaker 2: a defensive standpoint, both these teams huge defensive, havoc minded

407
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Speaker 2: offensive lines that they can completely take advantage of. Starting

408
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Speaker 2: with South carolina thirteenth and havoc Clemson's thirty eighth, then

409
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Speaker 2: havoc allowed. Clemson is just allowing too many tackles for loss,

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Speaker 2: too many defenses are getting in the backfield and creating havoc.

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Speaker 2: You know, they rank forty first and pass blocking. That's

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Speaker 2: just not going to get it done for the Tigers.

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Speaker 2: I think South Carolina coun completely take advantage, if not

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Speaker 2: pull off some turnovers and then they're gonna get great

415
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Speaker 2: field position. I think there's absolutely gonna be some takeaways here.

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Speaker 2: The question is can the rush d stop filmfa I mean,

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Speaker 2: we'll see. I mean, Clemson runs inside zone. They're about

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Speaker 2: fifty eight percent usc is about fifty one percent defending.

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Speaker 2: It's not like they're horrible against inside zone, but they're

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Speaker 2: not elite by any by any measure. Where Clemson's gonna

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Speaker 2: have success is they do run a lot of counter,

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Speaker 2: and South Carolina has fallen for counter.

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Speaker 1: All year, Like they oh they're so aggressive. Yeah, they

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Speaker 1: overpersued their rush defense metric. Their run defense is a

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Speaker 1: bit vulnerable.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think opposing offensive coordinators are popping

427
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Speaker 2: in the tape and like, oh, we're running a lot

428
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Speaker 2: of counter this week because South Carolina's forty four percent

429
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Speaker 2: success right against it. You go to the other side

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Speaker 2: of the ball, Clemson is seventh in defensive havoc against

431
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 2: the South Carolina offense, it's one hundred and twenty fourth

432
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 2: and havoc allowed. I mean the game Cocks are one

433
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty eighth and tackles for loss allowed they're

434
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 2: nearly dead last in the nation. And fumbles. You know

435
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 2: who is the worst team in the nation in Fumblestuck,

436
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:10,479
Speaker 2: that'd be the Arkansas Razorbacks. So South Carolina their offense,

437
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 2: if they don't get that run game going, they just

438
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:16,880
Speaker 2: live on pass explosives from Leonora's sellers. I think there's

439
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 2: avenues to quick field position and quick scores because of

440
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 2: the defenses, which is why I like an overhere stuck.

441
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the Battle for the Golden

442
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 1: Chilela Lee. I say, Challela. We were arguing about this.

443
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,400
Speaker 1: Colin says the wwe is why he thinks it's Chile Lee?

444
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 1: Yep ja was he talking about Notre Dame USC? For

445
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 1: those who I'm just assuming everyone knows that the Notre

446
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: Dame USC is the Battle for the Golden Chilela Orle Lee.

447
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 1: Notre Dame is a seven and a half point favorite

448
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 1: as we record this total fifty one and a half.

449
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 1: I like USC once it's got over seven to seven

450
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,639
Speaker 1: and a half. That's all I needed, you know, I

451
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 1: make this closer to I think a five and a

452
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: half six ish, So getting over a touchdown was all

453
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 1: I wanted. Part of me said, please don't go to

454
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: over a touchdown, but it did, and I have to

455
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: play my number here. And this is a decent spot

456
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 1: for USC. This is their super Bowl. Their defense is

457
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 1: playing better as you would expect. They had some injuries,

458
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 1: but they have one of the best defensive staffs in

459
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 1: all of college football. They're trending up defensively now. One

460
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 1: of the things that does worry me a bit. I

461
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 1: think it's a small drop off from Miller Moss to Maiva,

462
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 1: who took over a quarterback. He just doesn't have great

463
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: touch on some of his throes. He does give the

464
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 1: offense a bit more versatility and is a better fit

465
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: for Lincoln Riley with his ability to run, although I

466
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,880
Speaker 1: don't think they utilize that enough him in the RPO game.

467
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 1: But I don't think it's a drastic difference now from

468
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 1: a pure spot perspective, and back to what I was

469
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:08,119
Speaker 1: going to originally say, there's not enough people taking or

470
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,360
Speaker 1: considering the US that Notre Dame could lose this game

471
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 1: and then they're out of the playoff like that, I

472
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,199
Speaker 1: only are anyone talking about that. Everyone just assumes that

473
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 1: Notre Names in the playoff. It not Name loses this game,

474
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 1: they're out. I think, oh yeah, like they they're like

475
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 1: that they have lost in NIU. You can survive that

476
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: if you only have one loss. With that schedule. I mean,

477
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: their schedule is an absolute joke. And by the way,

478
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 1: when was the last time Notre Dame played a road game?

479
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 1: You know, I've top my head. No. Purdue September fourteenth,

480
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 1: that was their last road game. That's two and a

481
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 1: half months ago. It was their last road game. So

482
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 1: now they're going across country, second start game away from home,

483
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 1: but they had a home game in Yankee Stadium. USC

484
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 1: gets to stay home, so I think like from a

485
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 1: travel perspective, it's also like the first Notre Dames on

486
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 1: the road in two and a half months. That works

487
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:09,880
Speaker 1: in USC's favor. And this Notre Tame is Notre Dame

488
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:14,719
Speaker 1: team is good. They're taking care of business. I have

489
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 1: to give their defenses playing really well. Riley Leonard has

490
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 1: trended up, but I'm still not overwhelmed with the passing attack.

491
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 1: And this team hasn't played a soul I mean since

492
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 1: Texas A and M when they had Connor Wakeman a

493
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:39,399
Speaker 1: quarterback in Week one, since they lost to NIU, I

494
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:43,880
Speaker 1: mean they played per Due Miami, Ohio. The best team

495
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 1: they played was Louisville at home. They were out gained

496
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 1: three ninety five to two eighty. Should have lost that game.

497
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 1: They were laying seven and a half in that game

498
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 1: at home. I have Louisville and USC power rated essentially equal.

499
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 1: USC was catching three and a half at home against

500
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 1: Penn State. I have Penn State power rated higher than

501
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:10,360
Speaker 1: Notre Dame inflation, and USC should have won that game.

502
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 1: By the way, the inflation is just crazy, I mean

503
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: Notre Dame. Since that louisvill game. They beat Stanford, Georgia

504
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 1: even the Georgia Tech game, and by the way, Georgia

505
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 1: Tech was starting their third best quarterback and Zach Pyron

506
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 1: I mean Georgia techa three hundred and fifty yards it was.

507
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 1: That game was way closer than eighteen. And then since

508
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 1: it's service academies Virginia, Florida State and Stanford. The resume

509
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 1: is so bad, the quality of competition is so bad.

510
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 1: We've seen that they can stop a triple option offense.

511
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 1: I was wrong taking the over over two touchdowns last week,

512
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 1: but this is I think this is just inflation. This

513
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 1: line's too high. I'm siding with the Trojans and fight

514
00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: on who have not lost at home to Notre Dame again.

515
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 1: It's splayed every year by double digits since two thousand. Yeah, bar,

516
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 1: it's worth you see six and two against the spread

517
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 1: at home against Notre Dame. I'm sure they've had this

518
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 1: game circled after last year's tobackle. The sign's just too high.

519
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 2: I'm not joining you, and I'm not backing Notre Dame,

520
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 2: but I'm having a Really, the numbers are wrong. It

521
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 2: should be five. You're spot on with the assessment of

522
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 2: what USC was against Penn State, Penn State's power rating

523
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 2: versus Notre Dame's power rating. You're spot on all of that.

524
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 2: The problem is is when I deep dive. I did

525
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 2: a deep dive on this one. I just how do

526
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 2: they stop Riley Leonard, Genderian Price Formia Love on the ground,

527
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 2: with inside zone and man encounter and everything else that

528
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 2: Notre Dame runs. I can't find anything that USC does

529
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 2: well against opposing rushing attacks to get that stop. You know,

530
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 2: USC's defensive front is seventy seventh and defensive lineyards one

531
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 2: hundred and tenth and stuff righty, like, how do they

532
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 2: stop Notre Dame from running the ball? And then you

533
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 2: look over the other side and Jade Mava it's like

534
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 2: he finally had a good game against THECLA no turnover

535
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 2: where he plays, he had three of them against Nebraska.

536
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 2: The pressures have been insane, like US is one hundred

537
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 2: and ninth and pass blocking. May have has seen twenty

538
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 2: three pressures in the last two games, and that can

539
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 2: affect what that his decision making and what he does.

540
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 2: The numbers inflated. But I can't make a case for

541
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 2: USC's rush defense. I mean, it's only Tuesday. Maybe I'll

542
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 2: join you, but USC is the side I'm just having

543
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 2: a hard time in the rush defense getting there with USC.

544
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 1: I already mentioned special teams. USC special teams, Aventag Cheer,

545
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: Notre Name special teams are on mess. What's going to

546
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 1: end up costing them is they keep running out. Mitch

547
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 1: Jeter a kicker, and I think he's hurt. All of

548
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 1: the pressure on Notre Dame here too. All right, we're

549
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 1: gonna go conference by conference. We're gonna have like forty games,

550
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 1: and we're going to go really quick. All right, let's

551
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 1: start in the AAC UTSA meet meat. We're rying with

552
00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 1: UTSA seven or better is fine against Army. Army beat

553
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: up last week against Notre Dame. College football playoff hopes ruined.

554
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 1: They have the Army Navy game, they had the AAC championship,

555
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 1: They're already locked in to play Tulane. UTSA playing its

556
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: best football of the season. That offense is rolling, and

557
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 1: most importantly, their run defensive metrics are elite, like really

558
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 1: really good. And that's all I need here. I think

559
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 1: this line is inflated compared to where I make it.

560
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 1: I mean, just to give you an idea of where

561
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: UTSA is at. UTSA number two in defensive rush success

562
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: rate number eight and EPA per rush. I mean, their

563
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 1: rundy is very, very good and can hold up here.

564
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 1: And I'm not sure we saw Army was just a

565
00:31:55,120 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 1: schedule merchant. And I mean you look at UTSA stuff rate, lineyards,

566
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 1: they're all elite. Too many points meet meet Yeah, yeah,

567
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 1: you're right here. You can put it on the board.

568
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 2: Agree. UTSA defense number one defensively and rushing success straight

569
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 2: fourth and defensive stuff. Right, they're going to be able

570
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 2: to handle this Army ground attack here. Plus what's Army

571
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 2: playing for?

572
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 3: You know?

573
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're college twelve twelve hopes are done already in

574
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 1: the AC Championship game, and that atsa offense is humming

575
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 1: by the way teams after playing Notre Dame and Army

576
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 1: got beat up. Lest we go in nine against the

577
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 1: spread the week after, let's go to the ACC. We'll

578
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: get to Memphis Tu Lane in Thursday night lates, Thursday

579
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 1: night lights later. I kind of lean NC State against UNC,

580
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 1: big rivalry game, surprise, they don't have like a a

581
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 1: thing that they play for or like a trophy. I

582
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 1: think that they can slow down Hampton on the ground.

583
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 1: Jones the receiver is questionable for UNC. I'm not a

584
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 1: fan of Chris Well, but this, you know, and for

585
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 1: what it's worth, NC State is playing for boy eligibility.

586
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: They're at five and six. They've been so unlucky on

587
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 1: the year, like they have so many heartbreaking losses, including

588
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: last week. They got a couple extra days of prep

589
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 1: here too. Their offensive line has started to play better

590
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 1: as the year has gone on. My one concern and

591
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,200
Speaker 1: look you and see that they won those three straight games,

592
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 1: but it was against Virginia with three backup offensive line

593
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 1: in wake Forest and they weren't that impressive. They didn't

594
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 1: even cover that game in the corps of Florida State.

595
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: My one concern is Knac Brown. He was fired. He's

596
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 1: going to coach his last game. Does the team Moraley

597
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: around him? Yep, so it might be a stay away,

598
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 1: but lean n c State. You got anything there? Yeah,

599
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 1: I think it should be North Carolina. I lean North Carolina.

600
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 2: I power rate this closer to NC State plus one

601
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 2: instead of what the number is. I lean to the

602
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 2: under more. I think this is h This is a

603
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 2: aim for Mac Brown, for the coach, for the guy

604
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 2: that brought you there. NC State's havoc allowed is still

605
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 2: near dead last and North Carolina is top ten and

606
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:11,399
Speaker 2: creating contested catches broken tackle is allowed. Despite the poor

607
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 2: defensive numbers, they can tackle in space and they can

608
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 2: create a contested catch, which should be a problem for

609
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 2: NC State. Plus, you go to the other side of

610
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 2: the ball. North Carolina is not going to be stopped

611
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 2: on the ground with the Mario and Hampton like Ncay

612
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 2: State has not shown any kind of rush defense, So

613
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:26,359
Speaker 2: Eileen here.

614
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm against you there, but not I can't get

615
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,320
Speaker 1: there quite yet. Before we move on, quick announcement for

616
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,760
Speaker 1: you guys, Action Nework is running back our annual Black

617
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 1: Friday sale, offering our best price of the year on

618
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:41,080
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619
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 1: aren't a Pro subscriber, visit actionnetwork dot com slash Black

620
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Speaker 1: Friday to get forty dollars a year off of Pro

621
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 1: and receive instant access to all of the picks and

622
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 1: projections from myself, Colin Calibresent, our whole Action Network team.

623
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 1: That's Action Network dot Com Slash Friday for the best

624
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 1: price of the year on Action Brow. Let's go to

625
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:11,280
Speaker 1: the Governor's Cup. Louisville at Kentucky, Kentucky rolling with Bowleie

626
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 1: the young kid at quarterback. Louisville four and a half

627
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 1: point favorite here total forty eight and a half. I

628
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 1: got nothing here anything.

629
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 2: I leaned the Cats. I mean it was a covering

630
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 2: effort against Texas. They were within ten in the fourth

631
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:28,799
Speaker 2: quarter of Longhorns. Longhorns failed to create an explosive drive.

632
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 2: Could say more about Texas or it says that you

633
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 2: know there's a healthy Kentucky defense in play here. Louisville

634
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 2: has higher numbers in rush pass EPA than offensive finishing drives.

635
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 2: I just there is an avenue here for Kentucky to

636
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:42,359
Speaker 2: win this game. I think the number is two high.

637
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 2: I think it's I think it's Kentucky.

638
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:46,839
Speaker 1: Yeah. I just don't know enough yet about this kid

639
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 1: at quarterback, so that's what's making it tough. But I

640
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: mean it's hard to be worse than what vandergriff was,

641
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 1: so maybe it's an upgrade. I would lean Kentucky as well.

642
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 1: Healthier defense and they'll show up here. Huge rivalry game

643
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 1: right in my backyard. Speaking of rival against Florida at

644
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: Florida State Florida fourteen, a half point favorite. They've been

645
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 1: rolling Florida State's has nothing to play for all year,

646
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 1: but now you play your rival, I assume they're going

647
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:19,919
Speaker 1: to get up for this. If you're picking Florida State,

648
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 1: this would be the trash, right. I mean, no, no, no,

649
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 1: I'm not. But having said that, so I think like

650
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: Florida State will show up. Is it good enough? I

651
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 1: don't know. I can't get there. I'm not betting this team.

652
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 1: I bet them one time all year and it was

653
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 1: against Duke and that was I mean, they should have

654
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 1: covered an absolute painful experience and they held Duke to

655
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: like one hundred and fifty yards and didn't cover plus four.

656
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 1: Not doing it, not betting Florida State. But Florida's getting

657
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 1: pretty expensive here, but yes.

658
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 2: Yeah they are. I project the game at fifteen, so

659
00:36:57,760 --> 00:36:59,279
Speaker 2: it's about where it should be. But I think it's

660
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 2: just going to keep taking more steam. Why because Florida

661
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 2: State's not covered a game since October fifth, sixteen and

662
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 2: a half point underdogs a Clemson what was the final score?

663
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:11,760
Speaker 2: By sixteen? Like, I mean, Florida State's covered two games

664
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 2: this year. So I like the over because you're thinking

665
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 2: was maybe Florida State tries to show up here and

666
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 2: get some points up on the board. That does help

667
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 2: the over. I like the Florida team total over. I

668
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 2: won't mention the coach's name started to pick us some

669
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,399
Speaker 2: steam and put some money back into my wallet here

670
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 2: in the Wilson household. It's been a couple of years

671
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 2: coming that this coach made me some money. But if

672
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,360
Speaker 2: the Gators are going to run tempo here and I

673
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 2: think they're going to be adding at the end of

674
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 2: the game. I think you need to be looking at

675
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 2: Florida team total over more than.

676
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 1: You should at the side cal Smu SMU from a

677
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 1: numbers perspective, I show value on Cow especially this gets

678
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 1: the fourteen. But I haven't so I was all set

679
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 1: to play Cow. But I have an eerie feeling about

680
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 1: this game. It's not a great spot now after that

681
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 1: Stanford win, all of their comments that that was like they's.

682
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 2: Mendoza was crying on the field, like Mendoza bawling.

683
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:06,400
Speaker 1: And Smu who runs. There's gonna be a lot of

684
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 1: possessions in this game. They want margin, so they have

685
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 1: a shot of making it even if they lose the

686
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 1: ACC Championship game. So probably a pass for me. I

687
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 1: think you like SMU.

688
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 2: I do like SMU. I haven't made a decision where

689
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 2: I'm going to play it because I'm holding an ACC ticket.

690
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 2: We just need this win. I think thirteen and a

691
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 2: half is the right number. You alrdys did play you

692
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 2: logged it on the app. Oh I did, I did,

693
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 2: That's what I did. I can't ignore a couple of

694
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:35,439
Speaker 2: things I'm lefting that I've I've got so much money

695
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 2: on SMU this year. I can't even keep up with it.

696
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:40,879
Speaker 2: There's a problem with cal at the beginning of these games.

697
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 2: The last couple of games, they get way too far behind.

698
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 2: They gave Stanford a fourteen oh lead after the first quarter.

699
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,439
Speaker 2: They gave Syracuse a twenty seven to seven first half

700
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 2: lead a couple of weeks ago. They cannot afford to

701
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,879
Speaker 2: get two possessions down to SMU, who, by the way,

702
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:57,720
Speaker 2: defensively is top fifteen and defensive quality drives and defensive

703
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 2: finishing drives. This feel like an SMU route to me,

704
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 2: because you're right. They they need a huge gap in

705
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 2: case they lose to Miami in the a SEC Championship game.

706
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:09,320
Speaker 2: They're gonna need something to stand on for having two losses.

707
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 1: Big twelve. I let's start Baylor, Kansas. I've been driving

708
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 1: the Kansas bus. I'm off it.

709
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:25,440
Speaker 2: Oh, I know I can't do it here. I think

710
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 2: you're right, even though I bet Kansas, I think you're right.

711
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 2: I'll go ahead. What do you what do you see?

712
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean we've just hit the very peak of

713
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 1: the market. I mean, first of all, I know that

714
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 1: they're going to show up because they get boy eligible,

715
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 1: but like they just won three straight ranked the three

716
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 1: straight games against ranked opponents, Like what do they have

717
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 1: left in the tank emotionally, physically, And because of that,

718
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 1: now everyone wants to bet them, and like they're laying

719
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 1: points at Baylor. And what's going unnoticed is Baylor has

720
00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 1: been playing almost as well as Kansas for weeks now.

721
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 1: And the key, one of the keys to that is

722
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 1: they found a running game with this freshman Bryce in Washington.

723
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 1: So I made this like and I have I was

724
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:18,440
Speaker 1: higher than the world on Kansas, higher than the market

725
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 1: every single week betting Kansas, and I I don't like them.

726
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 1: This week they talk about inflation. I was super high

727
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:31,320
Speaker 1: on them. I have them, I have empowered as the

728
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: hot the highest rated team in the Big twelve. But

729
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,320
Speaker 1: all these teams in the Big twelve are like super close.

730
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 1: So like to be favored at Baylor, M I would love.

731
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 1: I mean this keeps going, I would love to get

732
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: Baylor plus three. So not a bet yet, but I

733
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 1: just I can't get there with Kansas this week, I'll

734
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:51,319
Speaker 1: be I want to root for them, sofaly, I don't

735
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:52,839
Speaker 1: have the bet Baylor because I want to bet them

736
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 1: in a bowl game. But this is it's a tough

737
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 1: spot if the three straight ranked wins and people w

738
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:02,359
Speaker 1: everyone is just propping off Kansas forgetting about how well

739
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 1: Baylor's been playing.

740
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree with you. I don't think this

741
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 2: so timeline for Colin Right, I hit Kansas plus one

742
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 2: on the opener, had a feeling that this would take

743
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 2: a massive amount of steam because everybody's finally caught up.

744
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 2: You're right, we're at the peak of the market for

745
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:18,720
Speaker 2: what the Jayhawks are as you and I are recording

746
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:20,880
Speaker 2: here on Tuesday. We got Kansas minus one and a

747
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 2: half at a lot of books, I mean, on the road,

748
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:26,240
Speaker 2: lay in one and a half against a really good defense.

749
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 2: Not really sure that's a good idea. So what am

750
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 2: I going to do with my Kansas plus one at

751
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 2: two and a half or three. I'm absolutely turning around

752
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 2: on Baylor, and I might even double that bet after

753
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 2: I did a little bit of research getting ready for

754
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 2: the podcast. When you look at Baylor eleventh defensively and

755
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 2: rushing success, right, their lineyards are sixty third So when

756
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 2: you see a discrepancy like that, it means the linebackers

757
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,280
Speaker 2: are just handling the rush better than the defensive line

758
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 2: is and that plays into what Kansas does and how

759
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 2: Baylor's going to stop at Kansas runs exclusive outside zone

760
00:41:57,320 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 2: with Devin Neil and Jalen Daniels, meaning they used the

761
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 2: tackles an extreme amount to try to get off that

762
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 2: edge and go. When you look at Baylor against outside

763
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 2: zone electric one of the best success rate margins against

764
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 2: any other run concept of any team in FBS. Baylor's

765
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,800
Speaker 2: kind of mid success rate against all the other run concepts.

766
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 2: They dominate outside zone and that's all that Livepold and

767
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 2: Kansas has been running. So yes, I have Kansas plus

768
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 2: one for those of you who don't have it. There

769
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 2: is a buyback coming on with Baylor at some point,

770
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 2: but Stuck's right, this is peak of the market and

771
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,839
Speaker 2: everybody wants a piece of the Jayhawks. I'm waiting until

772
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:35,399
Speaker 2: we get closer to a field goal to get back

773
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:35,880
Speaker 2: on Baylor.

774
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 1: Kansas State at Iowa State. It's a huge game for

775
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:44,799
Speaker 1: Iowa State. This is one of my favorite weekends. For

776
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 1: what it's worth, I'm always fully transparent my worst weeks

777
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 1: in the colleg football year, I just kind of get

778
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 1: better about.

779
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:52,399
Speaker 2: The week one.

780
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 1: It's weak, one can get better about how I'm My

781
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:58,239
Speaker 1: best thing is an evaluate in like the portal and

782
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 1: the talent player to player ratings, So I got to

783
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 1: get better there. That's why I've just like caught my

784
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:06,800
Speaker 1: volume all the way down in college basketball for the

785
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 1: first few weeks, and then this weekend. Historically I always

786
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:15,839
Speaker 1: struggle and then like our podcast always has historically done

787
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 1: well offer championship weekend and then of course in the bowls.

788
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 1: But this weekends always in a struggle for you. You're

789
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:25,239
Speaker 1: trying to gauge well motivation. It's very difficult to do

790
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,760
Speaker 1: on this final weekend. But I love this weekend because

791
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 1: you're also sweating so many win totals in futures, so

792
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 1: like there's just you have action on so many different

793
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 1: games from the whole season. This one is a big

794
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 1: one for me Idiowa State futures. If they win, they

795
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 1: go to the Big Twelve championship game. I always say

796
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 1: two and a half to three point favorite here. I

797
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:49,840
Speaker 1: think the line's about right. I mean, I have all

798
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 1: these Big twelve teams right in the same neighborhood, these

799
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 1: teams at the top, so throwing home field, I'm at

800
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,879
Speaker 1: like two six, two seven, Like I think there's gonna

801
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 1: be a crazy game, like this is probably gonna come

802
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:06,319
Speaker 1: down to like there's gonna be nuts. Most of Hiowa

803
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 1: State games are nuts, but this is this will come

804
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 1: down to like the final possession. I think because Kansas

805
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 1: State's gonna be able to run the ball, and I

806
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 1: alway state it's gonna be able to hit explosives through

807
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:18,839
Speaker 1: the air. Matchup wise, Kansas State can't stop past explosives.

808
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 1: I would state it's not going to be able to

809
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:22,360
Speaker 1: stop Kansas State on the ground. It's gonna be like

810
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:25,839
Speaker 1: a random turnover. How many of those explosives can back

811
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 1: hit through the air, right, Like, this game's wild. So

812
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:34,280
Speaker 1: at three, at three for me, it's Kansas State or nothing.

813
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 3: Yep.

814
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 1: At two and a half it's past. I think the

815
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 1: line is right. It should be a great game though.

816
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:42,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I grabbed three on Kansas State this morning. I

817
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 2: believe that had a trickle down effect because it's gone.

818
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 2: It's like two to two and a half everywhere. I

819
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:49,399
Speaker 2: am going to live bet this game because I think

820
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:52,439
Speaker 2: the ultimate bet is the over. I make this game

821
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 2: a pick. I expect that number to come down to

822
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 2: a pick. I think you're going to be able to

823
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 2: get both sides from a live betting standpoint. Why because

824
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 2: I see advantages for both offenses. Kansas State is absolutely

825
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 2: going to roll on the ground and that comes to

826
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 2: moving the chains and explosives. It should be all there

827
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:09,719
Speaker 2: for the Wildcats. You go to the other side of

828
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 2: the ball. Rock Obec just not been the version of

829
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 2: his freshman self for me last year. He's not gonna

830
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 2: have a pass rush and his grill here, Kansas State's

831
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 2: outside the top sixty and EPA allowed rock O Beck's

832
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 2: gonna have time, he's gonna have clear vision, and he's

833
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 2: gonna have a secondary that allows explosive passes. So I

834
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 2: think the play here is the over. But I'm already

835
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 2: invested in Kansas State and I am definitely gonna play

836
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 2: Higowa State in the mid game. So we'll see if

837
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 2: we can middle I think I think it's fun. You know,

838
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 2: people we get locked into a pick and I think

839
00:45:37,239 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 2: sometimes you know, we've done this over the years, Like

840
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 2: I clearly when you have see a lot of points

841
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 2: and a lot of explosives coming, if you just stayed

842
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 2: in the beginning, Like, yeah, I have a position, but

843
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,439
Speaker 2: I'm absolutely trying to go live in middle like, it's

844
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 2: not horrible to try to middle games. I just want

845
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 2: to say that because like people are like, oh, you're

846
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 2: coming back live. I'm like yeah, because you know, I mean.

847
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 1: It's not Sometimes you see something that you, yeah, didn't

848
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:03,360
Speaker 1: think about, and there's poor conjur all all kinds of

849
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:07,040
Speaker 1: things can change. Poor cocktail get locked in and let's

850
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 1: try to get the middle. This is that game for me.

851
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:13,000
Speaker 1: I think BYU rolls Houston.

852
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 2: I do too.

853
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially if someone especially if Iowa State loses.

854
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 2: So that's the problem stuck is this game time being

855
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:24,399
Speaker 2: past nine pm is like Arizona State and Iowa State.

856
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 2: I believe if they both win, they're pretty much sow.

857
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:31,719
Speaker 2: I mean you you're the way two hundred and fifty

858
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 2: different combinations of the Big Twelve. But there is a

859
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 2: huge special teams advantage here. There's not going to be

860
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 2: any contested catch issues for rets Loft.

861
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:40,919
Speaker 1: Houston can't run it either, and that's how you go

862
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:43,719
Speaker 1: at b YU. I think BYU roles in this game,

863
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 1: especially if one of those teams loses, they're playing for

864
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 1: they're playing for a spot. That place will be a zoo. Yeah,

865
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:56,319
Speaker 1: there's one scenario in the Big twelve where Arizona State

866
00:46:56,440 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 1: doesn't make it with a win, Yeah, be a FYU wins,

867
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 1: then Arizona State's going because the only way Arizona State

868
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 1: doesn't go with a win is if Houston, Colorado, Iowa State,

869
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 1: Texas Tech, Baylor, and Cincinnati all win. Most likely Iowa

870
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 1: State Arizona State would be locked in by the time

871
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,399
Speaker 1: BYU if they both win. Oh, another one, I can't.

872
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:20,800
Speaker 1: I don't think I can get there with since but

873
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 1: since he's playing for Bowl aligibility, TCU's one team in

874
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:24,959
Speaker 1: the Big Twelve that can't get to the Big Twelve

875
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:27,400
Speaker 1: title due to tiebreakers since he's out the three and

876
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 1: a half point favor Yeah, but since he's been good

877
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,839
Speaker 1: trying to get Bowl eligibility for like four strings, now

878
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 1: I think that they're a corpse. I think they're dead.

879
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if they really want to go to

880
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:38,319
Speaker 1: a bowl, so I don't know if I can get there.

881
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 2: You want a stat bren Sorosby has not had a

882
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 2: big time throw since Week five against Texas Tech.

883
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:45,919
Speaker 1: Since week five, he hasn't had a big time throw.

884
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with them, but like

885
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:49,960
Speaker 1: on the surface, it's like our tc is not playing

886
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 1: for anything. They can't even get to and it's going

887
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 1: to be like twenty degrees like this TCU team in

888
00:47:56,880 --> 00:48:01,839
Speaker 1: Sinci at night. I make it less than a few.

889
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 1: It's like off the three and a half. But I

890
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:05,040
Speaker 1: don't know if I can get there, since he just

891
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 1: might be a corpse. West Virginia Texas Tech. I lean

892
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:11,319
Speaker 1: West Virginia, but they looked bad last week. I think

893
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 1: they keep getting these lucky wins. They got a lucky

894
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 1: win ver Cincy last week. They were like the game

895
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 1: by two yards per play. But you do you like

896
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 1: West Virginia.

897
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:20,800
Speaker 2: I do like West Virginia, but it's like surface stuff.

898
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 2: It's like Texas Tech's blowing some smoke from a second

899
00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:25,759
Speaker 2: order win total perspective. They're going to get knocked in

900
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:28,920
Speaker 2: their power rating after the season. West Virginia's got advantages

901
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 2: on offense from a quality and finishing drives, you know.

902
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 1: But I mean, I feel like Texas Tech always overperforms.

903
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 1: This is coming down to like four downs. It come

904
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 1: down to like Texas Tech's fourth downs. But I don't

905
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 1: mind taking the dog at a three and a half.

906
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:43,839
Speaker 1: Yere right, I agree, it's going to a big ten.

907
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:47,359
Speaker 1: The battle for Paul Bunyan's acts. Minnesota Wisconsin. I love

908
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 1: what I love Wisconsin. Here. They look bad against Nebraska.

909
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 1: One of those reasons is Hunter Wooler was out. Their

910
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:58,840
Speaker 1: defense is lost without him. I'm hearing he's good to

911
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:02,040
Speaker 1: go this week. That's massive. I think Paul Pauling will

912
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:04,880
Speaker 1: be back as well at wide receiver, chaining their linebacker

913
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:07,279
Speaker 1: did get hurt. Not sure if he's a go, but

914
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:11,160
Speaker 1: this is mainly a spot play. I've heard that Wisconsin

915
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:14,600
Speaker 1: does care about going to a bowl. Minnesota already locked

916
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 1: in short week after that Penn State heartbreaker. This is

917
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 1: a tough spot. Well'erd being back for Wisconsin is just massive.

918
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:26,440
Speaker 1: I think they'll be able to run the ball a

919
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:31,240
Speaker 1: bit here. I like Wisconsin. I played. I played moneyline.

920
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 1: Look for the cheapest money line you can find. Is

921
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 1: one of the things that because number one, it's a

922
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:40,000
Speaker 1: lower scoring game. Number two, if for whatever reason Minnesota

923
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:42,479
Speaker 1: like ties it late, they won't. They'll probably not kick.

924
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:44,920
Speaker 1: They might just go for two in the win and

925
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 1: end in Wisconsin season. And I prefer the cheaper money

926
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:52,879
Speaker 1: line here. For a number of reasons.

927
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 2: I can't get to this number. I can't get to

928
00:49:55,440 --> 00:49:57,359
Speaker 2: two and a half because I make it Wisconsin minus one.

929
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 2: So I need that injury information before I fire. That's

930
00:50:00,640 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 2: where we're at. I agree, stuck on everything, but I

931
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 2: need that injury information to be positive to buy this number.

932
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 1: Apple Cup Washington at Oregon. Uh, this is a weird

933
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:17,200
Speaker 1: game because Oregon is zero motivation yep, other than the

934
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 1: fact that they did get swept by washing Us. What

935
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:21,839
Speaker 1: was like, it's a different team.

936
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 2: It's not Kalen de boor taking Dan Lanning out to

937
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 2: the woodshed, right, Yeah, so twice in a season they

938
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 2: have no motivation here, I guess i'd lean Washington and

939
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:36,320
Speaker 2: I'm close to on the number.

940
00:50:36,600 --> 00:50:37,439
Speaker 1: You got anything here?

941
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:40,239
Speaker 2: I want the under pretty bad. I projected at fifty five.

942
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 2: I expect Oregon, with big, big ten championship game on

943
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:47,759
Speaker 2: deck to be and they should run wild on this

944
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 2: Washington defense. Can't pass on this Washington defense, and I don't

945
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:52,719
Speaker 2: expect him to try. And if they do, what's Dylan

946
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:55,080
Speaker 2: Gabriel going to have an average depth of target at

947
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 2: four yards? So I think this is a game where

948
00:50:58,560 --> 00:50:59,800
Speaker 2: you're getting second.

949
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 1: Do you even want to run James that much?

950
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:03,280
Speaker 2: You're not gonna run, James, You're gonna run the backups

951
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 2: like I think this is an under game all the way.

952
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 2: The problem is our projected Warren is effective as James,

953
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 2: so I don't think. I think we're going to have

954
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:11,800
Speaker 2: success running but not as right. Right, So I'm on

955
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:13,799
Speaker 2: the under here. The problem is I make it. I

956
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:15,600
Speaker 2: just need to get over my own damn numbers and

957
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:17,279
Speaker 2: just bet the under. Because I'm at fifty five.

958
00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:19,799
Speaker 1: I don't mind the under. Heear Washington on miss like

959
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:20,719
Speaker 1: three field goals too.

960
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 2: Washington owes me. They owe me some after some Friday

961
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 2: night shenanigans this year.

962
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 1: That they do Old Oaken Bucket, the battle for the

963
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:33,719
Speaker 1: Old Oak and bucket Purdue at Indiana name the name

964
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 1: of this line's been flying. I mean, yeah, this is

965
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:39,400
Speaker 1: a beauty contest game. Indiana wants margin twenty eight and

966
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:43,520
Speaker 1: a half. Nothing gets people excited like winning. It's pretty simple.

967
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 1: I win. Google me whatever you know about Indiana in

968
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:50,879
Speaker 1: your past. You got a race to take.

969
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 2: Does anybody look better on that runway and a beauty

970
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,439
Speaker 2: pageant than Kurt Signetti when he needs the he needs

971
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 2: to look good.

972
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know what number are you taking?

973
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 2: Perdue honestly, Like, I don't know if I would buy

974
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:11,919
Speaker 2: thirty eight and a half, really, what would you buy?

975
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 2: What would you buy perdue at?

976
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,719
Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean I'm twenty five point.

977
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:18,280
Speaker 2: Four, but you wouldn't take twenty seven with perdue?

978
00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 1: No, No, maybe I'd consider like thirty one and a half.

979
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 2: Well, let's just name our final margin here. I'm gonna

980
00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 2: go with I'm gonna go with thirty nine points. Do

981
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:29,239
Speaker 2: you want to put this as a head to head

982
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:31,719
Speaker 2: on the board, because this would be fun. And don't

983
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:34,239
Speaker 2: you go fucking prices right me here and try to

984
00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 2: go like thirty eight and then take everything that goes underneath.

985
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 1: I'll say thirty one. So that's the good good, that's

986
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 1: a good one margin away, Okay, Rutters at SPARTI. I

987
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 1: like Michigan State first half.

988
00:52:45,239 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, that's our that's our script.

989
00:52:47,719 --> 00:52:50,200
Speaker 1: Party, first half, money line, playing for a bowl to

990
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:52,920
Speaker 1: come out, fired up? Where's Rutters out? Mentally, after that

991
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 1: game last week, what concerns me is that Michigan State's

992
00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:57,399
Speaker 1: offense will probably go into the tank and the second

993
00:52:57,400 --> 00:52:58,919
Speaker 1: half and then you could throw in them, anyone could

994
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:01,319
Speaker 1: throw on them to get back in the game. But

995
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 1: I think Michigan State will have a great script. Not

996
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:08,879
Speaker 1: sure Rutgers. I mentally a bowl for Michigan State. They're

997
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:11,799
Speaker 1: one of the teams, these five and sixteen teams, five

998
00:53:11,840 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 1: and six teams. Historically, if you bet them against teams

999
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:18,680
Speaker 1: that are not five and six, it has been profitable.

1000
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:22,400
Speaker 1: Hasn't been as profitable lay lead market starting to adjust

1001
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:26,000
Speaker 1: to that, and there tends to be some inflation. I

1002
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:28,200
Speaker 1: always take it by on a case by case basis,

1003
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:30,440
Speaker 1: like I don't know if I really want Cincy, but

1004
00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:33,319
Speaker 1: I know a bowl is really important to Jonathan Smith

1005
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:37,400
Speaker 1: in this team at home against Rutgers after that deflating

1006
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:40,880
Speaker 1: loss script team Sparty first half moneyline.

1007
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:43,440
Speaker 2: Not only do I agree with that house cleaning note

1008
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 2: here futures, I have Sparty under five and a half.

1009
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:49,319
Speaker 2: I have Rutgers over six and a half. So you

1010
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:53,239
Speaker 2: can expect a big hedge of Michigan State winning this

1011
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 2: game to offset those two win totals. So just saying

1012
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:57,279
Speaker 2: when you see that in the app, it's it's for

1013
00:53:57,320 --> 00:53:59,760
Speaker 2: the futures, and I'll indicate that in the notes. Outside

1014
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:01,880
Speaker 2: of what Stuck said about Michigan State being our favorite

1015
00:54:01,880 --> 00:54:04,239
Speaker 2: script team, to me, this is a first half over

1016
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:09,560
Speaker 2: second half under. Rutgers is also a script team, and

1017
00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:13,160
Speaker 2: their scoring differential is always best in second quarter. Michigan

1018
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:16,360
Speaker 2: State's best scoring differential second quarter. I think this is

1019
00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 2: a first half over and I think it's the most

1020
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 2: boring game in the history of college football in the

1021
00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:22,520
Speaker 2: second half. So if you want to run that script,

1022
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:25,200
Speaker 2: I'm going first half over, second half under and Michigan

1023
00:54:25,280 --> 00:54:26,360
Speaker 2: State to cover the first half.

1024
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:32,120
Speaker 1: Conference USA Liberty at Sam Houston. Liberty's laying three. Liberty

1025
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 1: minds started to figure some things out on offense the

1026
00:54:34,120 --> 00:54:37,000
Speaker 1: past couple of weeks. Sam Houston State is not. Their

1027
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:38,760
Speaker 1: offense is going in the opposite direction.

1028
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 2: Think there's some injury concerns with Hunter Watson too.

1029
00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:44,880
Speaker 1: I heard rumblings there too, but I haven't heard anything definitive.

1030
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:48,280
Speaker 2: Casey Keeler came out as press conference said Hunter Watson

1031
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 2: had a concussion after the Western Kentucky game. So that's

1032
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:51,480
Speaker 2: a problem.

1033
00:54:51,680 --> 00:54:54,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, Hunter Watson would be a big loss Seaton. Their

1034
00:54:54,719 --> 00:54:57,960
Speaker 1: offense has been going in the tank. The interesting thing

1035
00:54:58,000 --> 00:54:59,960
Speaker 1: about the Conference USA this speaking, so keep an eye

1036
00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:03,319
Speaker 1: his status is. If Liberty wins, they clinch and they

1037
00:55:03,320 --> 00:55:06,440
Speaker 1: would face Jacksonville State who's hosting. Liberty plays sam Houston

1038
00:55:06,440 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 1: State on Friday. Jacksonville State plays Western Kentucky on Saturday.

1039
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 1: If Liberty loses, then Western Kentucky can clinch by beating

1040
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:18,000
Speaker 1: Jacksonville State is playing for nothing, and if Western Kentucky loses,

1041
00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:21,960
Speaker 1: then Sam Houston State would go, but they would need

1042
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:24,279
Speaker 1: Jacksonville State is not really playing for anything, knowing that

1043
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:26,399
Speaker 1: if they're going to play Western Kentucky again next week,

1044
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:29,880
Speaker 1: if that makes sense, if they lose that game, my

1045
00:55:30,160 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 1: advice with that, and it's going to be Hunter Watson

1046
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:35,720
Speaker 1: injury dependent, I'm probably gonna throw in a round robin,

1047
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 1: in some form of around robin, Sam Houston State as

1048
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 1: a dog and Western Kentucky because then Western Kentucky knows

1049
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:45,840
Speaker 1: that they can win to go to the conference title.

1050
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 1: There's some correlation there. Jacksonville State knows if they lose,

1051
00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:51,360
Speaker 1: they're going to play this team again. Why show anything?

1052
00:55:51,719 --> 00:55:54,479
Speaker 1: So that's the Dealth Conference USA. The MAC.

1053
00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 2: How Beautiful is Mation?

1054
00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:59,239
Speaker 1: How beautiful is maction? Oh Man?

1055
00:55:59,400 --> 00:56:00,760
Speaker 2: Just what we had.

1056
00:56:00,600 --> 00:56:05,800
Speaker 1: Peak Baction Ohio wins, they go to the MAC Championship game, shocking.

1057
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 1: I was so wrong on them. Amazing with Tim Alvin's done.

1058
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:10,840
Speaker 1: You like them to lay the wood?

1059
00:56:11,320 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 2: I do, I do, Yeah, I haven't. I don't think

1060
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:16,640
Speaker 2: I've had a dime on ball State in quite a while.

1061
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:23,640
Speaker 1: Coachless in Seattle, miam Ohio, Bowling Green, this is really sad.

1062
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:27,600
Speaker 1: Last year we won our Miami Ohio Future, even though

1063
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 1: Gabricot hurt. This year, a Bowling Green future, it's in

1064
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:38,240
Speaker 1: trouble because, I mean, Myhi was really good. Harold Fannon

1065
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 1: might not play, which he's probably worth like two points

1066
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 1: to the spread. Yeah, he's questionable game time decision, they say,

1067
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:50,759
Speaker 1: But yeah, he suggesting he might be out.

1068
00:56:51,120 --> 00:56:52,920
Speaker 2: He's gonna win the Mackie Award and hit the transfer

1069
00:56:53,000 --> 00:56:55,440
Speaker 2: portal and they're not gonna make the damn championship game.

1070
00:56:55,480 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 2: It sucks. So I think if you're you know, if

1071
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:01,719
Speaker 2: you have the seven to one that BBOC has been

1072
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:04,560
Speaker 2: sporting on Bowling Green, I think it's probably time to

1073
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 2: be thinking about Miami Ohio right now.

1074
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 1: I like the under regardless, it's come down a bunch,

1075
00:57:10,680 --> 00:57:13,800
Speaker 1: but Howe fin got robbed though for Blennikoff, the finalist,

1076
00:57:13,840 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 1: A Hunter, McMillan and Nash.

1077
00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:19,160
Speaker 2: You'd replacement, you'd replaced tat though.

1078
00:57:19,080 --> 00:57:25,080
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, yeah, I like the under In Bowling Green

1079
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:29,000
Speaker 1: Mob It's gonna be super conservative game. If Fannon doesn't play,

1080
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:32,919
Speaker 1: how's Bowling Green moving the ball? Offensive line is gonna

1081
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:35,800
Speaker 1: get on the mya Ohio defense is peaking. They don't

1082
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:37,720
Speaker 1: have the passing game on the outside without fen to

1083
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:40,240
Speaker 1: take advantage of the Mima o Hia's corners. One of

1084
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:42,600
Speaker 1: their corners is the weak spot. And then on the

1085
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:44,920
Speaker 1: other side, Mahow can't really run it consistently. That's how

1086
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:48,200
Speaker 1: you beat this Bowling Green d Bowling Green's pass defense

1087
00:57:48,240 --> 00:57:51,920
Speaker 1: is elite. This game will be like seventeen thirteen. I

1088
00:57:52,000 --> 00:57:52,560
Speaker 1: like the under.

1089
00:57:53,200 --> 00:57:55,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say I agree as you and I

1090
00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:58,160
Speaker 2: are podcasting the market. There's some forty and a halves

1091
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:01,040
Speaker 2: out there. Forty one is actually a pretty big key number.

1092
00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 1: So yeah, forty one or better, that's the lowest of

1093
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 1: it you get.

1094
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:05,680
Speaker 2: Try to get forty one, and it's the way it's

1095
00:58:05,720 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 2: worth paying minus one twenty.

1096
00:58:08,040 --> 00:58:22,320
Speaker 1: Mountain West Rocky dab the Battle for the Fremont Cannon,

1097
00:58:22,360 --> 00:58:26,640
Speaker 1: Nevada at UNLV unlv IN with a win anything there.

1098
00:58:27,360 --> 00:58:29,920
Speaker 2: Other than a UNLV ro out and not exposing anything

1099
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,640
Speaker 2: for Boise. They just un really needs to work on

1100
00:58:32,680 --> 00:58:35,080
Speaker 2: their tackling. We'll see if they do. But there's no

1101
00:58:35,120 --> 00:58:36,360
Speaker 2: way you can fake UNLV here.

1102
00:58:36,680 --> 00:58:39,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I can't lay it at the current price.

1103
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:42,320
Speaker 1: Oregon State Boise God.

1104
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:44,080
Speaker 2: I was gonna say with Nevada, with how good they

1105
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:45,920
Speaker 2: are in the secondary, I would expect UNLV to be

1106
00:58:45,960 --> 00:58:50,240
Speaker 2: all rush here. So maybe potentially an under. Maybe it's cooking.

1107
00:58:51,840 --> 00:58:55,480
Speaker 1: Oregon State at Boise genty probably goes bananas here, but

1108
00:58:56,480 --> 00:59:00,520
Speaker 1: if bigger fish to fry. Although they can't lose this

1109
00:59:00,600 --> 00:59:02,440
Speaker 1: game because you've got to stay ahead of like Tulane

1110
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:04,440
Speaker 1: and to maybe margin matters.

1111
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:06,560
Speaker 2: If they want that fourth, if they want that buy

1112
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:09,240
Speaker 2: in the Collegeurball playoff right because they keep getting ahead

1113
00:59:09,240 --> 00:59:10,320
Speaker 2: of the big twelve champion.

1114
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:15,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I will say Oregon State did impress me by

1115
00:59:15,840 --> 00:59:22,080
Speaker 1: showing up and winning that game against Washington State. They

1116
00:59:22,080 --> 00:59:24,880
Speaker 1: put up forty one points, five hundred yards of offense

1117
00:59:25,000 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 1: that was out of nowhere. But gent should go nuts here.

1118
00:59:29,120 --> 00:59:34,360
Speaker 1: Four nineteens a little rich though nothing for me there, Yeah,

1119
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:37,240
Speaker 1: nothing for me either past Utah State of Colorado State.

1120
00:59:37,240 --> 00:59:39,000
Speaker 1: This game will be on Friday night. Colorado State needs

1121
00:59:39,000 --> 00:59:41,920
Speaker 1: to win and if they lose this game, you want

1122
00:59:41,920 --> 00:59:44,160
Speaker 1: know he's already into the Mountain West Championship. For what

1123
00:59:44,160 --> 00:59:47,000
Speaker 1: it's worth, Carson needs to win and then hope Nevada

1124
00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:50,560
Speaker 1: pulls off a stunner. I think you liked something here.

1125
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:52,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have Colorado State minus three and a half.

1126
00:59:53,240 --> 00:59:55,240
Speaker 2: I think it should be six.

1127
00:59:55,040 --> 00:59:55,520
Speaker 1: And a half.

1128
00:59:56,760 --> 00:59:59,760
Speaker 2: If the Rams want to have any chance in any

1129
00:59:59,800 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 2: kind of tiebreaker involved with you and LB, then they've

1130
01:00:02,360 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 2: got to have this game to make the Mountain West Championship.

1131
01:00:04,920 --> 01:00:08,160
Speaker 2: I think the pickens are slim to none zero, but

1132
01:00:08,360 --> 01:00:10,360
Speaker 2: that is what Colorasty should be playing for. And I

1133
01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 2: think still got number has a chance to run.

1134
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:16,160
Speaker 1: And here's a quick word from our producer, Matt Mitchell.

1135
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 3: Thank you very much. Ducky just wanted to take a

1136
01:00:19,120 --> 01:00:21,440
Speaker 3: minute and thank each and every one of you for

1137
01:00:21,560 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 3: joining us for our seventh annual Feast Week college football

1138
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:29,920
Speaker 3: betting episode good and our fourth here on Big Bets

1139
01:00:29,920 --> 01:00:33,840
Speaker 3: on Campus. That's good. I'm very thankful for Colin and

1140
01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:37,600
Speaker 3: Stucky and for each and every one of you. I

1141
01:00:37,680 --> 01:00:41,000
Speaker 3: love Thanksgiving more than probably anyone who's ever lived. It's

1142
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:46,680
Speaker 3: a holiday featuring tradition, family friends, Gluttney and of course,

1143
01:00:46,760 --> 01:00:49,400
Speaker 3: a tremendous amount of betting on college football.

1144
01:00:49,560 --> 01:00:50,280
Speaker 1: That's a good thing.

1145
01:00:50,480 --> 01:00:53,600
Speaker 3: So, whether you're listening to this while traveling, whether you

1146
01:00:53,720 --> 01:00:56,600
Speaker 3: got roped into a turkey trot like a chump, or

1147
01:00:56,640 --> 01:00:59,800
Speaker 3: whether you're just quietly trying to eat a pie standing

1148
01:00:59,800 --> 01:01:03,120
Speaker 3: over a garbage can hiding behind your garage, I'm very

1149
01:01:03,120 --> 01:01:05,720
Speaker 3: glad and very thankful that you're here and on behalf

1150
01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:08,280
Speaker 3: of the entire Action Network team. I wish you and

1151
01:01:08,320 --> 01:01:12,400
Speaker 3: your families are very safe, a very joyful, and an

1152
01:01:12,560 --> 01:01:17,240
Speaker 3: endlessly profitable Thanksgiving week. Good luck on all of your wagers,

1153
01:01:17,680 --> 01:01:18,600
Speaker 3: and thanks for listening.

1154
01:01:19,120 --> 01:01:21,360
Speaker 1: We're getting ready to go to the SEC. We'd better

1155
01:01:21,400 --> 01:01:26,720
Speaker 1: bring it. Bring your mouthpiece, SEC. Tennessee and Vandy. We're going,

1156
01:01:26,800 --> 01:01:33,959
Speaker 1: Bandy Baby, die Go, die Go, Diego die Not sold

1157
01:01:34,000 --> 01:01:37,200
Speaker 1: on this Tennessee team. Not sold on the offense. Hobby

1158
01:01:37,320 --> 01:01:39,880
Speaker 1: is a double digitalal three years ago plus twenty five

1159
01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:41,880
Speaker 1: and a half at Liberty one by thirty five plus

1160
01:01:41,920 --> 01:01:44,320
Speaker 1: twenty five and a half at Auburn one by twenty

1161
01:01:44,320 --> 01:01:46,520
Speaker 1: one plus twelve and a half at Kentucky this year

1162
01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:48,920
Speaker 1: one by seven plus twenty three and a half vers

1163
01:01:48,960 --> 01:01:51,640
Speaker 1: Alabama one by five plus seventeen and a half vers.

1164
01:01:51,680 --> 01:01:55,040
Speaker 1: Missouri lost by three in overtime, plus thirteen vers. Virginia

1165
01:01:55,120 --> 01:01:58,000
Speaker 1: Tech one by seven, plus seventeen and a half Verst.

1166
01:01:58,000 --> 01:02:00,959
Speaker 1: Texas lost by three. Who straight up is a double

1167
01:02:00,960 --> 01:02:03,360
Speaker 1: digit dog seven to zero against the spread, covering by

1168
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:10,080
Speaker 1: twenty five points per game. Bandy can hang here, sec dogs.

1169
01:02:10,400 --> 01:02:13,400
Speaker 1: This is one of them. I make this like eight nine,

1170
01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:16,560
Speaker 1: give me plus eleven all day.

1171
01:02:16,680 --> 01:02:18,640
Speaker 2: I might be against you. I'm not.

1172
01:02:18,720 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know.

1173
01:02:20,840 --> 01:02:22,040
Speaker 2: You know what I think we should call it. I

1174
01:02:22,040 --> 01:02:23,440
Speaker 2: think I am going to be on Tennessee, so let's

1175
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 2: go ahead and call it. I'll get the I'll probably

1176
01:02:24,920 --> 01:02:25,840
Speaker 2: get it in there at ten and a half. I

1177
01:02:25,840 --> 01:02:28,920
Speaker 2: don't think it's gonna drop anymore. But listen, the Vandy

1178
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:29,680
Speaker 2: secondary is not I.

1179
01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:30,760
Speaker 1: Think you should wait for that ten.

1180
01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:35,920
Speaker 2: I have a feeling the second well you and I

1181
01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:37,600
Speaker 2: get in these head to heads, we cut the pod,

1182
01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:41,240
Speaker 2: we get off of the damn thing dives. Listen, Vandy

1183
01:02:41,240 --> 01:02:44,720
Speaker 2: secondary numbers are really bad. Coverage creating contested catches not good,

1184
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:46,400
Speaker 2: and their pass rush is one hundred and thirteenth. And

1185
01:02:46,480 --> 01:02:48,720
Speaker 2: I think to take advantage of the Tennessee offensive line

1186
01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:51,640
Speaker 2: and get a Nico to have all those problems he's had,

1187
01:02:51,640 --> 01:02:53,920
Speaker 2: you got to have some kind of pass rush.

1188
01:02:54,120 --> 01:02:58,680
Speaker 1: So I mean, yeah, Vanderbilt is hung with everybody they played.

1189
01:02:58,960 --> 01:03:01,080
Speaker 2: I know, I know, it's it's such a service and

1190
01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:02,640
Speaker 2: you can't look at their numbers because there's such a

1191
01:03:02,680 --> 01:03:03,440
Speaker 2: service academy.

1192
01:03:03,440 --> 01:03:07,960
Speaker 1: But to shortened this game, all the pressures on Tennessee,

1193
01:03:09,200 --> 01:03:09,440
Speaker 1: I mean.

1194
01:03:11,160 --> 01:03:14,200
Speaker 2: The second playoff, I don't want this to happen. I

1195
01:03:14,240 --> 01:03:16,160
Speaker 2: have Tennessee did not make the playoff. I don't want

1196
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:16,760
Speaker 2: this to happen.

1197
01:03:16,800 --> 01:03:20,360
Speaker 1: But this Vandy defense is underrated. They just are well coached.

1198
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:23,400
Speaker 1: I like their their secondaries playing really well. I don't

1199
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:26,320
Speaker 1: trust Nico in this offense right now. They just beat

1200
01:03:26,400 --> 01:03:29,720
Speaker 1: up like Tennessee something. What have they done? They beat

1201
01:03:29,800 --> 01:03:32,640
Speaker 1: up a beat up Milroe and again they were losing

1202
01:03:32,640 --> 01:03:33,280
Speaker 1: for most of it.

1203
01:03:33,880 --> 01:03:35,880
Speaker 2: Like not, I don't want to be on the side

1204
01:03:35,880 --> 01:03:37,560
Speaker 2: of defending them. I really don't.

1205
01:03:37,960 --> 01:03:42,320
Speaker 1: Maybe utap Mississippi State. They should have lost to Florida,

1206
01:03:43,560 --> 01:03:46,000
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe can beat up Kentucky team by ten.

1207
01:03:46,040 --> 01:03:48,240
Speaker 1: They lost at Arkansas. They only put a fourteen. You

1208
01:03:48,280 --> 01:03:50,520
Speaker 1: want to talk about struggling secondary, Tennessee only put a

1209
01:03:50,560 --> 01:03:54,240
Speaker 1: fourteen in that game. They looked like Eyebill got schooled

1210
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:55,360
Speaker 1: by Travis Williams.

1211
01:03:55,720 --> 01:03:56,440
Speaker 2: It was bad.

1212
01:03:57,480 --> 01:03:59,919
Speaker 1: Dandy baby, Diego Diego. I can't believe in the final

1213
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:04,080
Speaker 1: season game, maybe his career not going Diego Egg Bowl.

1214
01:04:04,640 --> 01:04:11,280
Speaker 1: Alma s s I s s I yeah sad. This

1215
01:04:11,360 --> 01:04:14,360
Speaker 1: isn't on Thanksgiving, this is on Friday. Ole Miss? Do

1216
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:17,840
Speaker 1: they care? Do they do? They want to put up

1217
01:04:17,880 --> 01:04:20,800
Speaker 1: a big number here? Do they quit? They're laying twenty six?

1218
01:04:20,840 --> 01:04:21,440
Speaker 1: Any thoughts?

1219
01:04:21,760 --> 01:04:23,480
Speaker 2: Yeah? First, I have a full write up coming out

1220
01:04:23,480 --> 01:04:26,360
Speaker 2: on Action. Everybody please go read it. First half under

1221
01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:28,120
Speaker 2: thirty one and a half. I think we're gonna see

1222
01:04:28,560 --> 01:04:31,560
Speaker 2: ole Miss defense still be there cause problems Mississippi State

1223
01:04:31,680 --> 01:04:35,960
Speaker 2: who and I don't think the ole Miss offense. Rece McIntyre,

1224
01:04:36,040 --> 01:04:38,080
Speaker 2: the center getting pulled out of that game. Everybody's wondering,

1225
01:04:38,120 --> 01:04:40,000
Speaker 2: like what happened Ole Miss? Why did they suck? Because

1226
01:04:40,000 --> 01:04:43,160
Speaker 2: their center Reece McIntyre pulled from the game with injury.

1227
01:04:43,160 --> 01:04:45,200
Speaker 2: They slid their guard over and that's when all the

1228
01:04:45,240 --> 01:04:48,919
Speaker 2: problems started. Recee McIntyre probably not going to play this week.

1229
01:04:49,080 --> 01:04:51,720
Speaker 2: Injury was pretty bad. We'll see on this fake injury

1230
01:04:51,760 --> 01:04:53,800
Speaker 2: report that comes out from Lane. But uh, I like

1231
01:04:53,800 --> 01:04:56,000
Speaker 2: first half under thirty one and a half. This was

1232
01:04:56,000 --> 01:04:56,720
Speaker 2: a little exciting.

1233
01:04:56,800 --> 01:05:01,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of it presents America when it comes

1234
01:05:01,640 --> 01:05:04,400
Speaker 1: to the college football season. I saw some clean, old

1235
01:05:04,440 --> 01:05:08,560
Speaker 1: fashioned hate Georgia Georgia Tech Georgia nineteen and a half

1236
01:05:08,640 --> 01:05:13,160
Speaker 1: point favorite. I kind of lean Georgia Tech just because,

1237
01:05:13,160 --> 01:05:16,280
Speaker 1: like Pavia, Brent Key is the underdog god and Georgia

1238
01:05:16,320 --> 01:05:19,560
Speaker 1: Tech's a really good underdog. They'll try to shorten this game.

1239
01:05:19,760 --> 01:05:22,440
Speaker 1: They'll have a really good script with Buster Faulkner on offense,

1240
01:05:22,720 --> 01:05:25,440
Speaker 1: and this Georgia offense is still just underwhelming to me.

1241
01:05:25,480 --> 01:05:27,040
Speaker 1: I think Georgia Tech be able to run it a bit.

1242
01:05:27,560 --> 01:05:30,120
Speaker 1: The problem is, like I don't like Georgia Tech's won

1243
01:05:30,160 --> 01:05:33,400
Speaker 1: the last two games telegraphing what they're gonna do on offense.

1244
01:05:33,840 --> 01:05:36,080
Speaker 1: They bring in King and then you know they're gonna

1245
01:05:36,120 --> 01:05:39,200
Speaker 1: run it right, and then you know this kid Filo,

1246
01:05:39,720 --> 01:05:42,920
Speaker 1: if he's in there, they're gonna throw it. Like Georgia

1247
01:05:43,000 --> 01:05:46,000
Speaker 1: is a really good defensive staff, Like I can't believe

1248
01:05:46,000 --> 01:05:48,760
Speaker 1: they've beat Miami like that. I lean Georgia Tech. I

1249
01:05:48,880 --> 01:05:50,640
Speaker 1: think I saw you play first half. I don't mind that.

1250
01:05:50,760 --> 01:05:55,160
Speaker 1: Look as the Bobo script has not been good, and

1251
01:05:55,240 --> 01:05:58,440
Speaker 1: the Faulkner's script is usually good. And then I think

1252
01:05:58,480 --> 01:06:02,160
Speaker 1: eventually Georgia will just figure out the shenanigans that Georgia

1253
01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:04,520
Speaker 1: Tech's doing and maybe pulled away. But it sound like

1254
01:06:04,560 --> 01:06:09,400
Speaker 1: this Georgia deep, this Georgia passing attack is that's scary

1255
01:06:09,440 --> 01:06:12,520
Speaker 1: to fully take advantage of the Georgia Tech secondary. Okay,

1256
01:06:12,600 --> 01:06:15,160
Speaker 1: so yes, Georgia Tech plus ten and a half in

1257
01:06:15,200 --> 01:06:17,320
Speaker 1: the first half. And for all the bullet points that

1258
01:06:17,360 --> 01:06:20,120
Speaker 1: you just threw out there, listen, George is terrible at

1259
01:06:20,120 --> 01:06:23,040
Speaker 1: first in the first quarter from a scoring differential, negative

1260
01:06:23,160 --> 01:06:25,880
Speaker 1: scoring differential for the Georgia Bulldogs in the first quarter.

1261
01:06:25,960 --> 01:06:28,320
Speaker 1: They cannot seem to get it figured out on either

1262
01:06:28,360 --> 01:06:30,400
Speaker 1: side of the ball. In the scripted portion of the game,

1263
01:06:30,880 --> 01:06:32,760
Speaker 1: it's a little bit different story for Georgia Tech. He

1264
01:06:32,800 --> 01:06:34,480
Speaker 1: usually comes out of the first half pretty hot. And

1265
01:06:34,520 --> 01:06:38,680
Speaker 1: when you mentioned Filo, all time leading passer and Georgia

1266
01:06:38,760 --> 01:06:41,120
Speaker 1: high school history, we know he has an arm. And

1267
01:06:41,160 --> 01:06:43,320
Speaker 1: if you notice what's happened in the last two weeks,

1268
01:06:43,760 --> 01:06:46,800
Speaker 1: they brought him out there to do what show his arm? Well,

1269
01:06:46,840 --> 01:06:49,160
Speaker 1: he had to scramble to get into the end zone.

1270
01:06:49,200 --> 01:06:51,040
Speaker 1: He had a rushing td A couple did you watch him?

1271
01:06:51,120 --> 01:06:55,920
Speaker 1: He floats, kid can run. I think Buster Faulkner's purposely

1272
01:06:55,920 --> 01:06:58,520
Speaker 1: tried to keep that off film. I wouldn't be surprised

1273
01:06:58,560 --> 01:07:00,920
Speaker 1: at all. A Filo has just runing wild in the.

1274
01:07:00,920 --> 01:07:02,960
Speaker 2: First half here, and then Georgie is just scrambling to

1275
01:07:02,960 --> 01:07:05,080
Speaker 2: figure out how they all to defend that. So I

1276
01:07:05,120 --> 01:07:07,280
Speaker 2: think there's an element of surprise. I think Buster Faulkner

1277
01:07:08,080 --> 01:07:10,640
Speaker 2: is the key ingredient here from a coaching perspective that

1278
01:07:10,680 --> 01:07:14,000
Speaker 2: gives Georgia Tech an advantage for a while until the

1279
01:07:14,000 --> 01:07:16,720
Speaker 2: Georgia defensive staff does their adjustments like they always do

1280
01:07:16,760 --> 01:07:20,840
Speaker 2: and just absolutely correck havoc on opposing offenses. So Georgia

1281
01:07:20,880 --> 01:07:24,120
Speaker 2: Tech first half. Maybe a Georgia Live BET's going to

1282
01:07:24,160 --> 01:07:25,960
Speaker 2: come in sometime during the game. But I do like

1283
01:07:26,000 --> 01:07:28,360
Speaker 2: the Ello Jackets early. All right, it's time four some

1284
01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:31,439
Speaker 2: trash the trash man pick of the week.

1285
01:07:32,000 --> 01:07:33,120
Speaker 1: I'm the trash man.

1286
01:07:33,400 --> 01:07:36,640
Speaker 2: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it,

1287
01:07:36,800 --> 01:07:38,960
Speaker 2: totally unreliable, undependable.

1288
01:07:39,240 --> 01:07:40,240
Speaker 1: That's it. You've been told off.

1289
01:07:40,280 --> 01:07:41,520
Speaker 3: How do you like that? Good?

1290
01:07:42,120 --> 01:07:46,800
Speaker 1: Only two games here? I like ULM plus ten plus

1291
01:07:46,880 --> 01:07:49,800
Speaker 1: nine and as fine two against ul This is the

1292
01:07:49,840 --> 01:07:54,200
Speaker 1: battle of the Bayou Wooden boot. Ul is playing for

1293
01:07:55,480 --> 01:07:59,120
Speaker 1: to clinch a spot in the Sun Belt Championship. But

1294
01:07:59,160 --> 01:08:01,680
Speaker 1: for what it's worth, of Tech State beat South Alabama

1295
01:08:02,040 --> 01:08:05,320
Speaker 1: the day before, ul will be in already and they're

1296
01:08:05,320 --> 01:08:09,080
Speaker 1: playing for nothing, and their quarterbacks already hurt. They have

1297
01:08:09,120 --> 01:08:12,320
Speaker 1: fields in there, so they probably bends their quarterback, rest

1298
01:08:12,360 --> 01:08:15,400
Speaker 1: some other key starters. So there's some upside there. Yeah,

1299
01:08:15,720 --> 01:08:19,320
Speaker 1: and Ulm's a team that really cares about going to

1300
01:08:19,360 --> 01:08:22,760
Speaker 1: a bowl. It'll be really important for that program. And

1301
01:08:22,880 --> 01:08:25,120
Speaker 1: they'll we have to run the ball with Hardy, it's

1302
01:08:25,120 --> 01:08:26,959
Speaker 1: all they can do. But you can run on ul

1303
01:08:27,800 --> 01:08:29,479
Speaker 1: And now they're going to shorten this game. Their profile

1304
01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:32,840
Speaker 1: is a pretty good double digit dog. And if Texas

1305
01:08:32,880 --> 01:08:35,840
Speaker 1: State wins in Texas State's favorite at South Alabama, I

1306
01:08:35,880 --> 01:08:36,880
Speaker 1: like you, Elm one.

1307
01:08:36,800 --> 01:08:38,479
Speaker 2: Hundred percent agree. You can put it on the board.

1308
01:08:38,479 --> 01:08:42,679
Speaker 2: We are taking ULM together. I think I know everybody

1309
01:08:42,760 --> 01:08:44,479
Speaker 2: is going to be on vacation this weekend, but you're

1310
01:08:44,520 --> 01:08:46,360
Speaker 2: gonna have to watch the board with that Texas State game.

1311
01:08:46,520 --> 01:08:49,439
Speaker 2: I believe if things pull the way ULM needs them too,

1312
01:08:49,520 --> 01:08:52,240
Speaker 2: that number will dip. If not, I think it's stays stable. Yeah,

1313
01:08:52,240 --> 01:08:53,360
Speaker 2: I don't think wil Ridge is coming.

1314
01:08:53,360 --> 01:08:56,000
Speaker 1: I like it at this price. I think you can

1315
01:08:56,000 --> 01:08:58,479
Speaker 1: still get a ten out there. Yeah, but if Texas

1316
01:08:58,520 --> 01:09:01,920
Speaker 1: State wins, it'll drop. I think there's upside to that result.

1317
01:09:01,960 --> 01:09:04,160
Speaker 1: And as of right now, Texas State is a favorite.

1318
01:09:04,280 --> 01:09:08,080
Speaker 2: What is that? God damn it, God damn, You're on

1319
01:09:08,120 --> 01:09:10,679
Speaker 2: your own on this one, Oklahoma State.

1320
01:09:11,000 --> 01:09:11,719
Speaker 1: I gotta take.

1321
01:09:11,600 --> 01:09:15,240
Speaker 3: Them, God damn, God damn it. Not again.

1322
01:09:15,640 --> 01:09:17,880
Speaker 2: You You can put it as I'm against you after

1323
01:09:18,240 --> 01:09:19,880
Speaker 2: I told my wife I wouldn't bet on any teams

1324
01:09:19,880 --> 01:09:21,360
Speaker 2: from the state of Oklahoma. And look what you did

1325
01:09:21,400 --> 01:09:23,519
Speaker 2: to me with the Cowboys. I'm against you. Go ahead,

1326
01:09:23,720 --> 01:09:28,439
Speaker 2: I'm against the head, head ahead, but you owe me one.

1327
01:09:28,360 --> 01:09:30,160
Speaker 1: Here after making me play them last week.

1328
01:09:30,200 --> 01:09:34,040
Speaker 2: God damn, you were the right side ninety eight percent

1329
01:09:34,120 --> 01:09:35,360
Speaker 2: postgame went expectancy.

1330
01:09:35,439 --> 01:09:36,679
Speaker 1: They couldn't even get close.

1331
01:09:37,840 --> 01:09:42,000
Speaker 3: Go outside, ner, get out, go. You better tell there's

1332
01:09:42,000 --> 01:09:44,320
Speaker 3: some bitch to walk out right now? Are we done

1333
01:09:44,320 --> 01:09:44,800
Speaker 3: for the day?

1334
01:09:46,680 --> 01:09:51,120
Speaker 1: This kid Maya Milwaukee Maya Luwakee. I think is Smith

1335
01:09:51,800 --> 01:09:55,080
Speaker 1: very difficult, first name, easy, last name press. He looked great.

1336
01:09:55,200 --> 01:09:56,880
Speaker 1: He actually gives there what was he doing In the

1337
01:09:56,920 --> 01:09:58,920
Speaker 1: next lawyer, he gives their offense some juice and then

1338
01:09:58,960 --> 01:10:01,040
Speaker 1: you can't load the box. Ali Gordon shad have a

1339
01:10:01,080 --> 01:10:03,800
Speaker 1: big day here. Colorado can't run. That's how you really

1340
01:10:03,800 --> 01:10:06,640
Speaker 1: beat this Oklahoma State defense. I also think from a

1341
01:10:06,640 --> 01:10:09,320
Speaker 1: spot perspective what I saw last week, Okahoma State is

1342
01:10:09,320 --> 01:10:12,160
Speaker 1: gonna show up here. It's Colorado. Everyone shows up for Colorado.

1343
01:10:12,400 --> 01:10:16,520
Speaker 1: It's their last game, and Colorado's got to be deflated

1344
01:10:16,880 --> 01:10:19,040
Speaker 1: like they control their own destiny. It's a short week.

1345
01:10:19,320 --> 01:10:20,920
Speaker 1: A lot of times you see these teams, you think, oh,

1346
01:10:20,920 --> 01:10:23,400
Speaker 1: they're gonna come out angry, and I think that like

1347
01:10:23,479 --> 01:10:26,320
Speaker 1: Dion's is gonna they're gonna try to force feed Hunter

1348
01:10:26,360 --> 01:10:29,439
Speaker 1: for his heisman. That's nothing like it's That's not the

1349
01:10:29,439 --> 01:10:34,120
Speaker 1: most efficient way to run an offense. I think Okahoma State, well,

1350
01:10:34,160 --> 01:10:37,200
Speaker 1: Colora's gonna score. Oklahoma State Secondary is also terrible. College's

1351
01:10:37,200 --> 01:10:39,280
Speaker 1: gonna put up a ton of points. Yeah, I think

1352
01:10:39,280 --> 01:10:41,879
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State can match them. I think Gordon can have success.

1353
01:10:41,960 --> 01:10:43,599
Speaker 1: I think this kid Smith can have success. They can

1354
01:10:43,640 --> 01:10:46,160
Speaker 1: throw the ball around a little bit. This number is outrageous.

1355
01:10:46,160 --> 01:10:47,840
Speaker 1: Give me the Popes. We're going to head to head there.

1356
01:10:48,320 --> 01:10:53,320
Speaker 1: God damn it, all right, it's time to go nowhere fast.

1357
01:10:55,479 --> 01:10:56,280
Speaker 2: You are about to.

1358
01:10:56,320 --> 01:10:59,080
Speaker 3: Enter a world unlike any you've ever seen.

1359
01:10:58,920 --> 01:11:04,160
Speaker 2: Before, where the beautiful, the brutal, and the brave all need.

1360
01:11:20,400 --> 01:11:23,400
Speaker 1: Air Force. At San Diego State, what are we doing here?

1361
01:11:23,840 --> 01:11:26,160
Speaker 2: We're going over and we're taking air force. Although I

1362
01:11:26,160 --> 01:11:27,640
Speaker 2: think three and a half is where you stop for

1363
01:11:27,840 --> 01:11:30,879
Speaker 2: is pretty big for a service academy. No expected resistance

1364
01:11:30,880 --> 01:11:33,040
Speaker 2: against the Triple San Diego State is one hundred and

1365
01:11:33,040 --> 01:11:35,240
Speaker 2: thirtieth in defensive stuff rate, one hundred and twenty ninth

1366
01:11:35,240 --> 01:11:37,840
Speaker 2: in line yards. Worse there, one hundred and twenty third

1367
01:11:37,840 --> 01:11:39,960
Speaker 2: hard stops. You say, what is hard stops? That's the

1368
01:11:40,000 --> 01:11:43,040
Speaker 2: ability to tackle in space by your secondary Not good

1369
01:11:43,080 --> 01:11:44,800
Speaker 2: for San Diego State. Air Force should be able to

1370
01:11:44,840 --> 01:11:47,320
Speaker 2: get to the second level and create extra yards. So

1371
01:11:47,320 --> 01:11:49,280
Speaker 2: I think they're going to score just fine. The question

1372
01:11:49,320 --> 01:11:51,840
Speaker 2: is can San Diego State Can their offense create rush

1373
01:11:51,840 --> 01:11:54,800
Speaker 2: explosives against the Air Force D Because Marcus Cooper's created

1374
01:11:54,800 --> 01:11:57,720
Speaker 2: twenty eight runs for at least ten yards for the Aztecs,

1375
01:11:58,080 --> 01:12:00,880
Speaker 2: that inside zone that the Aztecs use against Air forces

1376
01:12:00,920 --> 01:12:03,680
Speaker 2: front is going to have some success here. Put in

1377
01:12:03,760 --> 01:12:06,600
Speaker 2: some tempo twenty four seconds per play. San Diego is

1378
01:12:06,640 --> 01:12:08,120
Speaker 2: gonna be able to move the ball, get some scores

1379
01:12:08,200 --> 01:12:10,080
Speaker 2: up on the board. But I mean air Force is

1380
01:12:10,120 --> 01:12:12,360
Speaker 2: winning this game. I do like the over here. Yeah,

1381
01:12:12,400 --> 01:12:14,920
Speaker 2: air Force trending way up. Would lean that way as well,

1382
01:12:14,960 --> 01:12:17,640
Speaker 2: but number kind of got away from me. All right,

1383
01:12:17,760 --> 01:12:21,920
Speaker 2: Time for Colin talking. Arkansas football needs win this game

1384
01:12:21,960 --> 01:12:27,240
Speaker 2: and beat Layah arkansaw ooh down to three.

1385
01:12:27,600 --> 01:12:32,160
Speaker 1: Whoopick suy absolute dumpster fined dumps Fine.

1386
01:12:32,200 --> 01:12:33,519
Speaker 2: I don't know how we win a game the rest

1387
01:12:33,520 --> 01:12:35,680
Speaker 2: of the year. Just flow a program up, give us

1388
01:12:35,680 --> 01:12:36,439
Speaker 2: a death sentence.

1389
01:12:36,880 --> 01:12:39,800
Speaker 1: Colin's talking razorback football.

1390
01:12:40,760 --> 01:12:43,600
Speaker 2: For all of you people out there that like to

1391
01:12:43,640 --> 01:12:48,040
Speaker 2: back Arkansas and trust these service release plays. Elijah Drinkwitz

1392
01:12:48,080 --> 01:12:51,120
Speaker 2: hates the University of Arkansas. Let me remind everybody that

1393
01:12:51,200 --> 01:12:53,760
Speaker 2: Drinkwitz grew up in Alma, just a stone's throw from

1394
01:12:53,800 --> 01:12:57,360
Speaker 2: campus down I forty nine. Drinkwitz was on the Springdale

1395
01:12:57,439 --> 01:13:00,400
Speaker 2: High School staff when Gus Malzon was there. It was

1396
01:13:00,439 --> 01:13:03,759
Speaker 2: his Springdale five kids that got recruited by Houston Nutt

1397
01:13:04,080 --> 01:13:08,080
Speaker 2: and were soon jettison out the program and Malazon left

1398
01:13:08,080 --> 01:13:10,519
Speaker 2: the University Arkansas took a lateral move to Tolson to

1399
01:13:10,520 --> 01:13:14,360
Speaker 2: be the OC. It was such a huge story in

1400
01:13:14,360 --> 01:13:16,639
Speaker 2: two thousand and six for everybody in the state of Arkansas,

1401
01:13:16,720 --> 01:13:19,200
Speaker 2: but a directly impacted drink Wits because it was his

1402
01:13:19,320 --> 01:13:21,719
Speaker 2: kids that were at the center of this. He hates

1403
01:13:21,760 --> 01:13:25,240
Speaker 2: the University of Arkansas, he hates the administration. He takes

1404
01:13:25,240 --> 01:13:29,080
Speaker 2: this rivalry serious. Arkansas has won this game just once

1405
01:13:29,200 --> 01:13:33,120
Speaker 2: since twenty fifteen. They've never been close in Colombia. Arkansas right,

1406
01:13:33,160 --> 01:13:35,519
Speaker 2: and let's just get to the numbers. Taylor Green can't

1407
01:13:35,520 --> 01:13:37,360
Speaker 2: stop putting the ball on the damn ground. I already

1408
01:13:37,400 --> 01:13:39,479
Speaker 2: mentioned on this podcast. Who's fumbled more than anybody else

1409
01:13:39,479 --> 01:13:42,400
Speaker 2: in the nation Arkansas twenty five times. Arkansas is one

1410
01:13:42,479 --> 01:13:45,639
Speaker 2: hundred and fourteenth and havoc allowed. Missouri average is one

1411
01:13:45,680 --> 01:13:47,920
Speaker 2: forced fumble per game. They're going to get a freebe

1412
01:13:48,000 --> 01:13:50,840
Speaker 2: There's just no offensive advantages for Arkansas here whatsoever.

1413
01:13:51,000 --> 01:13:53,400
Speaker 1: Unless Taylor Green leaves the pocket.

1414
01:13:53,720 --> 01:13:57,080
Speaker 2: He has been I don't want to say terrible, not

1415
01:13:57,160 --> 01:13:59,360
Speaker 2: as good as expected in running the RPO. He is

1416
01:13:59,400 --> 01:14:01,479
Speaker 2: not making the decisions in the passing game. He's not

1417
01:14:01,520 --> 01:14:03,560
Speaker 2: taking the right lanes when he runs. When you go

1418
01:14:03,640 --> 01:14:06,439
Speaker 2: and look at what Missouri's done against mobile quarterbacks Lenora

1419
01:14:06,560 --> 01:14:10,479
Speaker 2: Sellers limited to forty five yards on fifteen carries. Jackson Arnold,

1420
01:14:10,479 --> 01:14:12,839
Speaker 2: remember he can run now all of a sudden, seventeen

1421
01:14:12,880 --> 01:14:16,479
Speaker 2: carries for forty five yards mill row against Missouri's defense.

1422
01:14:16,520 --> 01:14:18,800
Speaker 2: Remember that game was a blowout for BBAMA. He only

1423
01:14:18,800 --> 01:14:22,320
Speaker 2: had eleven carries for fifty yards. There's just major advantages

1424
01:14:22,360 --> 01:14:25,440
Speaker 2: here in third downs from Missouri. I get it. Everybody

1425
01:14:25,520 --> 01:14:27,040
Speaker 2: think that the Hogs are going to show up, but

1426
01:14:27,160 --> 01:14:31,720
Speaker 2: just keep in mind, Elijah Drinkwitz hates the University of Arkansas.

1427
01:14:32,160 --> 01:14:34,760
Speaker 2: Sam Pitman's already qualified for a Bowl and he's got

1428
01:14:34,840 --> 01:14:37,240
Speaker 2: hip surgery the next day. There's other shit to do

1429
01:14:37,320 --> 01:14:38,080
Speaker 2: for Arkansas.

1430
01:14:38,160 --> 01:14:42,160
Speaker 1: Okay, Missouri, Wow, turning your back on your own state

1431
01:14:42,320 --> 01:14:46,080
Speaker 1: and university. We are very very lucky, very fortunate, very

1432
01:14:46,160 --> 01:14:48,520
Speaker 1: excited about the Arkansas razorbags.

1433
01:14:48,960 --> 01:14:52,000
Speaker 2: Right, We turned our backs on our own damn product

1434
01:14:52,000 --> 01:14:54,840
Speaker 2: in state. Like we treated the Springdale five like shit,

1435
01:14:54,880 --> 01:14:56,759
Speaker 2: and those were drink wits as kids in high school

1436
01:14:56,800 --> 01:14:59,479
Speaker 2: like it. That was a terrible, terrible black eye in

1437
01:14:59,520 --> 01:15:01,080
Speaker 2: the history the state of Arkansas.

1438
01:15:01,640 --> 01:15:05,479
Speaker 1: I don't know about all that burned pro correct give

1439
01:15:05,520 --> 01:15:08,320
Speaker 1: them the death total all right, before we get out

1440
01:15:08,320 --> 01:15:12,880
Speaker 1: of here, let's go three and out. Let's make it

1441
01:15:12,920 --> 01:15:16,679
Speaker 1: a quick three and out. Let's go three and out.

1442
01:15:16,720 --> 01:15:20,479
Speaker 1: First down. Thursday Night Lights, Memphis at Tulane. I mean, now,

1443
01:15:20,720 --> 01:15:23,800
Speaker 1: this line keeps going up, but tu Lane's a team

1444
01:15:23,800 --> 01:15:25,439
Speaker 1: that wants to get margin two. So, like, I don't

1445
01:15:25,479 --> 01:15:27,760
Speaker 1: want to fade them. I can't catch up to how

1446
01:15:27,760 --> 01:15:31,000
Speaker 1: good they are. Yep so, and they're gonna want to

1447
01:15:31,280 --> 01:15:33,479
Speaker 1: add an extra score at the end. But at fourteen

1448
01:15:33,479 --> 01:15:36,559
Speaker 1: and a half, now it's Memphis or nothing for me.

1449
01:15:36,680 --> 01:15:38,400
Speaker 1: You like the total over? Yeah?

1450
01:15:38,439 --> 01:15:40,360
Speaker 2: I wrote this up for action guys. Everybody go out

1451
01:15:40,360 --> 01:15:41,680
Speaker 2: there and have a read. But we're going over in

1452
01:15:41,720 --> 01:15:45,200
Speaker 2: this game. Memphis won their last two games after whatever

1453
01:15:45,200 --> 01:15:47,760
Speaker 2: happened at UTSA. I don't know what happened, but when

1454
01:15:47,800 --> 01:15:50,400
Speaker 2: that flight came home from San Antonio, Ryan silver Sappild

1455
01:15:50,479 --> 01:15:52,559
Speaker 2: said it was the quietest Plaine ride in history for

1456
01:15:52,640 --> 01:15:55,880
Speaker 2: his group, they turned around. They've won two games. You know,

1457
01:15:55,960 --> 01:15:58,320
Speaker 2: I know it was Rice, but I mean Memphis gives

1458
01:15:58,439 --> 01:16:00,960
Speaker 2: up a ton of explosives on and that is a

1459
01:16:01,000 --> 01:16:04,120
Speaker 2: really bad look against Tulane. Two lane runs man outside zone.

1460
01:16:04,160 --> 01:16:07,439
Speaker 2: McKay hughes is absolutely gonna run crazy here. Memphis is

1461
01:16:07,439 --> 01:16:11,600
Speaker 2: bottom fifteen and defensive rush EPA. I expect Tulane to

1462
01:16:11,720 --> 01:16:15,120
Speaker 2: get all the points that they want. Now, the question

1463
01:16:15,200 --> 01:16:17,120
Speaker 2: is is can two Lane match them and get over

1464
01:16:17,160 --> 01:16:19,120
Speaker 2: this total. I think the answer is yes. Memphis has

1465
01:16:19,160 --> 01:16:21,759
Speaker 2: one of the highest rates nationally in first down passing.

1466
01:16:21,960 --> 01:16:24,200
Speaker 2: When you have Seth Hennigan at quarterback, you're gonna throw

1467
01:16:24,240 --> 01:16:28,200
Speaker 2: on first down a lot they do Tulsa. Tulsa two

1468
01:16:28,280 --> 01:16:31,800
Speaker 2: lane struggles and defensive standard downs EPA. I couldn't believe

1469
01:16:31,840 --> 01:16:33,760
Speaker 2: there are one hundred and twenty first and early downs

1470
01:16:33,800 --> 01:16:36,880
Speaker 2: and giving up explosives. Memphis likes to chuck it downfield

1471
01:16:36,920 --> 01:16:38,960
Speaker 2: as early as they can in first downs. I think

1472
01:16:39,000 --> 01:16:40,920
Speaker 2: Memphis is gonna get their field position, They're gonna get

1473
01:16:40,920 --> 01:16:43,280
Speaker 2: their scoring chances. I definitely like the over here. I

1474
01:16:43,280 --> 01:16:45,280
Speaker 2: don't know if TWU lane stops like I don't see

1475
01:16:45,280 --> 01:16:47,479
Speaker 2: two lane taking a knee. I don't see them backing off,

1476
01:16:47,520 --> 01:16:49,479
Speaker 2: and I don't see the explosive runs for McCay Hughes

1477
01:16:49,520 --> 01:16:52,280
Speaker 2: ever stopping in this game that's on second down.

1478
01:16:52,280 --> 01:16:54,599
Speaker 1: Our favorite overdog, A favorite favorite.

1479
01:16:54,680 --> 01:16:56,320
Speaker 2: It's called the over dog parlay.

1480
01:16:56,640 --> 01:17:00,080
Speaker 1: I'll start I'm gonna go to LSU minus six. I

1481
01:17:00,080 --> 01:17:01,960
Speaker 1: think that this bretch me over a touchdown. And I'm

1482
01:17:02,080 --> 01:17:05,400
Speaker 1: really just playing the spot here. Oklahoma an enormous win,

1483
01:17:05,560 --> 01:17:09,240
Speaker 1: all out effort, out of the buy all in, got

1484
01:17:09,240 --> 01:17:13,280
Speaker 1: to Bowl eligibility. Beat Alabama with your limited offense. That

1485
01:17:13,320 --> 01:17:14,960
Speaker 1: can't I mean this two weeks in a row that

1486
01:17:15,000 --> 01:17:19,280
Speaker 1: they've grown for like sixty total yards Jackson Arnold, it's

1487
01:17:19,320 --> 01:17:21,639
Speaker 1: got to be beat up. We ran it close to

1488
01:17:21,680 --> 01:17:24,559
Speaker 1: twenty five to thirty times. Now you're going down to LSU.

1489
01:17:24,880 --> 01:17:27,320
Speaker 1: I just think this is a super flat spot. I

1490
01:17:27,479 --> 01:17:28,040
Speaker 1: like LSU.

1491
01:17:28,439 --> 01:17:31,040
Speaker 2: Hey, it doesn't hurt to take a SEC team at home. Right,

1492
01:17:31,880 --> 01:17:35,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna pivot and I'm going to take Miami. I

1493
01:17:35,200 --> 01:17:38,000
Speaker 2: think hope from an overdog perspective, they're gonna clinch. I

1494
01:17:38,040 --> 01:17:39,960
Speaker 2: mean they're gonna clinch their ACC with a victory here.

1495
01:17:39,960 --> 01:17:42,040
Speaker 2: But there's no weather concerns traveling up north because it's

1496
01:17:42,080 --> 01:17:44,519
Speaker 2: being played in the Carrier Dome, Rcadome, whatever we're calling

1497
01:17:44,560 --> 01:17:47,519
Speaker 2: this thing. The question is can Syracuse implement any havoc

1498
01:17:47,600 --> 01:17:49,920
Speaker 2: on cam Ward For the season, they rank forty eight.

1499
01:17:50,040 --> 01:17:53,240
Speaker 2: They've only forced seven fumbles this season, so that ingredient

1500
01:17:53,280 --> 01:17:54,920
Speaker 2: that you need to get cam Moore to make mistakes.

1501
01:17:54,920 --> 01:17:57,680
Speaker 2: It's just not there for the Syracuse defense. Syracuse is

1502
01:17:57,680 --> 01:18:00,360
Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred and coverage grading. They're one

1503
01:18:00,400 --> 01:18:02,840
Speaker 2: hundredth and creating contested catches. I think cam Ward has

1504
01:18:02,840 --> 01:18:05,600
Speaker 2: a Heisman building performance. Not saying he's going to win it,

1505
01:18:06,040 --> 01:18:08,479
Speaker 2: but the avenue is there. Do you see Kyle McCord

1506
01:18:08,600 --> 01:18:10,519
Speaker 2: keeping up here? He's going to see pressure from that

1507
01:18:10,560 --> 01:18:13,240
Speaker 2: Miami d A crowded pocket has been responsible for the

1508
01:18:13,240 --> 01:18:16,479
Speaker 2: fumbles that he's had this year. Huge special teams advantage

1509
01:18:16,479 --> 01:18:18,879
Speaker 2: for the Hurricanes twelfth an sp plus ors of Syracuse

1510
01:18:18,880 --> 01:18:19,160
Speaker 2: at one.

1511
01:18:19,120 --> 01:18:21,760
Speaker 1: Hundred and third. So I'll take the Hurricanes. Yeah, I

1512
01:18:21,840 --> 01:18:25,280
Speaker 1: make this close for fourteen. I wanted Syracuse. The problem

1513
01:18:25,360 --> 01:18:27,160
Speaker 1: is I don't trust Miami to lay double ditch with

1514
01:18:27,200 --> 01:18:30,519
Speaker 1: them because their defense, Like who's going to throw a

1515
01:18:30,520 --> 01:18:33,639
Speaker 1: pick six for us Ward or McCord Like in Sarah,

1516
01:18:33,720 --> 01:18:37,240
Speaker 1: these are two. Syracuse's third down offense has been amazing

1517
01:18:37,240 --> 01:18:40,880
Speaker 1: this year. Miami's has been record setting. They're like fifty

1518
01:18:40,880 --> 01:18:43,680
Speaker 1: eight percent. Which defense can get off the field on

1519
01:18:43,800 --> 01:18:45,479
Speaker 1: third down? Or can any I mean I would lean

1520
01:18:45,520 --> 01:18:47,760
Speaker 1: over to in that game, but I'm a num pure

1521
01:18:47,880 --> 01:18:52,720
Speaker 1: numbers perspective. I actually leaned Miami. I was shocked. Team

1522
01:18:52,760 --> 01:18:55,360
Speaker 1: that needs to win and like a kind of a

1523
01:18:55,360 --> 01:18:58,920
Speaker 1: public team and the last weekend, and I'm showing value

1524
01:18:58,920 --> 01:19:00,600
Speaker 1: in the favorite, which is shocking. All right, Let's go

1525
01:19:00,640 --> 01:19:06,000
Speaker 1: to third down, our underdog money line parlay turning good

1526
01:19:06,040 --> 01:19:11,600
Speaker 1: weekends into great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay.

1527
01:19:12,600 --> 01:19:16,000
Speaker 1: We hit this last week the basketball parlay Kansas and

1528
01:19:16,080 --> 01:19:19,639
Speaker 1: Duke for what it's worth for thirteen and thirteen overall

1529
01:19:19,760 --> 01:19:23,839
Speaker 1: these this year, plus five point twenty five units between

1530
01:19:24,040 --> 01:19:27,559
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen and twenty twenty three. We first started doing

1531
01:19:27,600 --> 01:19:32,280
Speaker 1: this twenty eighteen, seventy two to one fourteen plus twelve

1532
01:19:32,320 --> 01:19:35,720
Speaker 1: point sixty five units, so overall close to about right

1533
01:19:35,760 --> 01:19:39,360
Speaker 1: about eighteen units overall. Let's try to hit another one.

1534
01:19:40,000 --> 01:19:43,439
Speaker 1: I'll lead things off UTSA meet Meat stop the run

1535
01:19:43,560 --> 01:19:46,840
Speaker 1: bad spot for Army beat up. Utsa's offense is peaking

1536
01:19:47,600 --> 01:19:50,560
Speaker 1: met me. I'm not like, here's better than mine. I

1537
01:19:50,560 --> 01:19:51,280
Speaker 1: got the shorter spread.

1538
01:19:51,280 --> 01:19:54,519
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go wake forest number that's coming down against Duke.

1539
01:19:55,000 --> 01:19:56,840
Speaker 2: We spoke a second order win total a lot?

1540
01:19:56,880 --> 01:19:58,400
Speaker 1: Oh is it? I wanted to bet it? Damn is

1541
01:19:58,400 --> 01:19:59,040
Speaker 1: it coming down?

1542
01:19:59,240 --> 01:20:02,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, Duke has been playing a little bit over over

1543
01:20:02,439 --> 01:20:04,320
Speaker 2: their skis this year. Eight wins on the season, but

1544
01:20:04,360 --> 01:20:06,759
Speaker 2: it should be six point eight per second order win total.

1545
01:20:07,720 --> 01:20:11,679
Speaker 2: Wake is playing for a fifth win potential APR Bowl.

1546
01:20:11,720 --> 01:20:13,439
Speaker 2: There's not that many spots left, but it is the

1547
01:20:13,439 --> 01:20:14,840
Speaker 2: motivation that they are playing with.

1548
01:20:14,920 --> 01:20:15,160
Speaker 1: Here.

1549
01:20:15,920 --> 01:20:18,880
Speaker 2: Duke's going to be facing their third straight road game

1550
01:20:18,920 --> 01:20:21,320
Speaker 2: where it's senior day, so there's that added in there.

1551
01:20:21,320 --> 01:20:24,960
Speaker 2: But Duke offensively has lived solely on Malik Murphy pass explosives.

1552
01:20:25,000 --> 01:20:27,599
Speaker 2: I think I tweeted out this job taking them. They

1553
01:20:27,600 --> 01:20:29,559
Speaker 2: do do a good job of that. I think one point,

1554
01:20:29,560 --> 01:20:31,640
Speaker 2: I tweeted out Malik Murphy's three of four with one

1555
01:20:31,720 --> 01:20:34,439
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty yards and two tds. Why is that

1556
01:20:34,520 --> 01:20:37,799
Speaker 2: so important? Well, he decided to come off the field

1557
01:20:37,800 --> 01:20:41,240
Speaker 2: after that second bomb and flip the double birds up

1558
01:20:41,320 --> 01:20:43,800
Speaker 2: at his offensive coordinator, who is up in the booth

1559
01:20:44,720 --> 01:20:47,479
Speaker 2: Manny Diaz got to his press conference yesterday on Monday,

1560
01:20:47,960 --> 01:20:51,320
Speaker 2: he indicated, first, yeah, Malik Murphy had three interceptions, it

1561
01:20:51,360 --> 01:20:55,040
Speaker 2: should have been like six, and we are internally disciplining

1562
01:20:55,120 --> 01:20:57,960
Speaker 2: him for throwing up the double birds to our offensive

1563
01:20:57,960 --> 01:21:00,639
Speaker 2: coordinator in the booth. He went on to say that

1564
01:21:01,400 --> 01:21:04,479
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer told him if you throw a

1565
01:21:04,560 --> 01:21:08,639
Speaker 2: post route for a touchdown, you can flip me off. Well,

1566
01:21:09,000 --> 01:21:11,559
Speaker 2: Murphy executed. Then he turned around and flew the double

1567
01:21:11,560 --> 01:21:15,479
Speaker 2: Birds at his offensive coordinator. So there's still mentioned whether

1568
01:21:15,520 --> 01:21:17,800
Speaker 2: he's gonna sit in this game or if he's gonna

1569
01:21:17,800 --> 01:21:20,599
Speaker 2: be like out for the first quarter or first half.

1570
01:21:21,240 --> 01:21:23,559
Speaker 2: But the trickling in the line caught my eye immediately,

1571
01:21:23,600 --> 01:21:25,360
Speaker 2: and I think it's because of this. So we don't

1572
01:21:25,360 --> 01:21:26,960
Speaker 2: know what they're gonna do with the Malik Murphy. But

1573
01:21:27,080 --> 01:21:30,040
Speaker 2: the Double Birds did not sit well with Diaz whatsoever.

1574
01:21:31,120 --> 01:21:33,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, sadly for Wake, there's too many teams that are

1575
01:21:33,200 --> 01:21:36,000
Speaker 1: going to be getting gona end up with six wins.

1576
01:21:36,000 --> 01:21:37,920
Speaker 1: I think they have an outside shot, although I air

1577
01:21:37,960 --> 01:21:40,479
Speaker 1: Force is it ahead of them? Yes, they get a

1578
01:21:40,479 --> 01:21:42,519
Speaker 1: fifth win. I agree with you on Wake though, all right,

1579
01:21:42,560 --> 01:21:45,439
Speaker 1: some money on Undrew Carl like UTSI Wake bars fourth

1580
01:21:45,439 --> 01:21:47,320
Speaker 1: down Before we get out of here, it's a board review.

1581
01:21:48,040 --> 01:21:53,640
Speaker 1: Hot damn. This is fun transparency board agreed tab we

1582
01:21:53,720 --> 01:21:56,280
Speaker 1: are I always say tab like I'm on my computer

1583
01:21:57,200 --> 01:22:00,320
Speaker 1: the agree section. We're thirty one and eight on the

1584
01:22:00,360 --> 01:22:03,639
Speaker 1: air sixty three point three percent, Texas A and m

1585
01:22:04,240 --> 01:22:11,800
Speaker 1: UTSA sparty first half. Ulm head to head. You got

1586
01:22:11,840 --> 01:22:14,040
Speaker 1: Indiana by thirty nine. I have Indiana by thirty one.

1587
01:22:14,040 --> 01:22:18,280
Speaker 1: We'll seeh's closer. You're going against Diego, I have Vandy

1588
01:22:18,960 --> 01:22:22,400
Speaker 1: and you're going against Oak State. You have Colorado head

1589
01:22:22,439 --> 01:22:24,880
Speaker 1: to head four and four. Both have four wins in

1590
01:22:24,920 --> 01:22:27,040
Speaker 1: the year. And then trash Ulm and Oak State trash

1591
01:22:27,120 --> 01:22:30,840
Speaker 1: on the year nineteen and nine sixty seven point six percent.

1592
01:22:30,920 --> 01:22:33,160
Speaker 1: Colin is two and one. It's overalls twenty one and ten.

1593
01:22:33,479 --> 01:22:35,160
Speaker 1: Do you want to add Virginia? I saw you bet.

1594
01:22:35,200 --> 01:22:37,240
Speaker 1: Virginia Is that trash worthy?

1595
01:22:37,400 --> 01:22:39,960
Speaker 2: I mean Virginia Tech is missing everybody here, I mean

1596
01:22:40,000 --> 01:22:42,240
Speaker 2: even Schlee's in rehab protocol. But if you want to

1597
01:22:42,240 --> 01:22:44,160
Speaker 2: throw it in there, I'll take them. I mean, Virginia

1598
01:22:44,160 --> 01:22:46,000
Speaker 2: Tech is it's not looking good down the stretch here.

1599
01:22:46,479 --> 01:22:48,160
Speaker 2: I'll take it. If you think that's trash worthy.

1600
01:22:48,400 --> 01:22:50,880
Speaker 1: Oh, Ubia is all right, we'll do it last week.

1601
01:22:51,000 --> 01:22:53,040
Speaker 1: All right, that'll do it for us. By the way,

1602
01:22:53,080 --> 01:22:55,120
Speaker 1: As a reminder, if you're interested in long shot bets

1603
01:22:55,320 --> 01:22:57,360
Speaker 1: sort of cats, change stuff, open the action app, fill

1604
01:22:57,360 --> 01:23:00,880
Speaker 1: parlay express a lot of fun experts, long shots like

1605
01:23:00,920 --> 01:23:04,320
Speaker 1: college Football Round Robins throw all under one account. We

1606
01:23:04,400 --> 01:23:08,360
Speaker 1: will be back Monday morning with our recap episode. Happy

1607
01:23:08,360 --> 01:23:11,040
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving again, Thanks the conference joining me, Thanks to our producer,

1608
01:23:11,080 --> 01:23:13,400
Speaker 1: Ma Mitchel in the end, Thankful for both of them,

1609
01:23:13,400 --> 01:23:16,479
Speaker 1: Thankful for all of you, Thank you for tuning in.

1610
01:23:16,520 --> 01:23:19,240
Speaker 1: As always, good luck on all of your wagers. Let's

1611
01:23:19,280 --> 01:23:22,280
Speaker 1: close out the season strong and get ready for conference

1612
01:23:22,360 --> 01:23:25,639
Speaker 1: championship next weekend. Enjoy the holiday, everybody cheers.

1613
01:23:25,920 --> 01:23:38,920
Speaker 2: Peace Out Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1614
01:23:39,320 --> 01:23:42,160
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1615
01:23:42,439 --> 01:23:45,080
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1616
01:23:45,160 --> 01:23:45,959
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler