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Speaker 1: JJ, Mike Tomlin did it again and in the most

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Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin way possible, and you predicted it. You texted

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Speaker 1: Denny yesterday tell us about the prediction.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, okay, So on Living the Stream, one of

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Speaker 2: my other podcast, Denny Carter my co host, and I

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Speaker 2: I'll randomly bring up the Mike Tomlin game. Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 2: is a is far more predictable than people realize. You know,

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Speaker 2: there are games like the ones, the one against Cincinnati

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Speaker 2: earlier this year when Joe Flacco beat the Steelers. There

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Speaker 2: is the Colts game I mentioned that they would win,

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Speaker 2: that the Steelers would beat the Colts when the Colts

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Speaker 2: were flying high. And then then last night, you know,

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Speaker 2: going up against Baltimore, their home dogs, against the Ravens,

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Speaker 2: and in me, I just you know, no, DK Metcalf,

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Speaker 2: no way they can win that game. And then of course,

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Speaker 2: of course it ends up being a Mike Tomlin w

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Speaker 2: because you know why, Mike Tomlin does everything he can

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Speaker 2: do to maintain that job, and it's going to be

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Speaker 2: that way forever. But yeah, Rich, what about your team,

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Speaker 2: how's your team in knowing?

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Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, we secured the number two overall pick. So

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Speaker 1: I'm eagerly awaiting the message that Dante Moore returns to

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Speaker 1: Oregon and we get yet another year of awful things

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Speaker 1: for the New York Jets.

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Speaker 2: I'm JJ, and last year I tried my hardest to

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Speaker 2: become a best ball bro. I drafted over five hundred teams.

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Speaker 2: I talked to some of the most successful best ball

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Speaker 2: players in existence, and I admittedly had mixed results. So

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Speaker 2: this year, I'm going to chase that title once again.

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Speaker 2: My plan is the Max Center DraftKings Millionaire Maker, and

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Speaker 2: I'm going to document all of it while talking to

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Speaker 2: the brightest best ball minds on the planet. Last year,

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Speaker 2: I didn't quite get there, But this year this is

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Speaker 2: going to be the year where I officially become a

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Speaker 2: best ball bro. Welcome into another episode of becoming a

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Speaker 2: Best ball I'm JJ Zach Reeson, joined as always by

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Speaker 2: my Jets loving co host Rich Ryan Rich. What's going on,

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Speaker 2: Buddy doing?

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Speaker 1: Good man? This has been one of my better fantasy

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Speaker 1: seasons to date. Absolutely crushed redraft. I was in a

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Speaker 1: DFS league with a bunch of Jets fans. I won

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Speaker 1: three of the eighteen weeks. I broke even in best Ball,

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Speaker 1: which is, you know, pretty good like, nothing to complain about.

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Speaker 1: And of course I get to sweat you all along

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Speaker 1: these past couple of weeks in your becoming becameth of

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Speaker 1: a best ball bro.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, what is it? So? I've seen a lot of tweets.

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Speaker 2: I've seen you know, Pete overs at, you know, after

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Speaker 2: I had tweeted about my Millie team, he had tweeted

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Speaker 2: that it became a best best ball Bro. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if I'm there yet. I think that I definitely

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Speaker 2: experienced some best ball bro sweats this year. Very excited

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Speaker 2: to talk about the results, the things that I learned,

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Speaker 2: all that kind of stuff. But first I do want

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Speaker 2: to mention best ball playoffs are happening over on DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: Definitely check that out if you guys haven't. I'm going

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Speaker 2: to be in those best ball Playoff streets for Shore Playoff,

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Speaker 2: best Ball, best Ball Playoff. You guys know what I'm

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Speaker 2: trying to say. But go check out all those contests

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Speaker 2: over there on DraftKings. Like I said, I will be

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Speaker 2: drafting there. I had a really good time draft I

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Speaker 2: mean results wise too, but just a really good time

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Speaker 2: in general drafting on DraftKings this summer. And so I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna be doing it. I'm gonna be carrying it over

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Speaker 2: into the playoff season. It's a really wild playoff. I've

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Speaker 2: been putting rankings together for Playoff best Ball, and I

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Speaker 2: don't know what to do at this point because there's

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Speaker 2: so many teams that are just so tight and close

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Speaker 2: together that it's just really hard to put something cohesive together.

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Speaker 2: But it is going to be out there for patrons

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Speaker 2: this week. Hopefully soon after this show, it will be

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Speaker 2: out there, or if you're listening to this, which you

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Speaker 2: would be if you're hearing this right now, they will

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Speaker 2: be available on the Patreon as you're listening to it,

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Speaker 2: so go check that out. Hopefully there will be as

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Speaker 2: good of results in the playoffs as there was in

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Speaker 2: the regular season.

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Speaker 1: For me, we were just talking pre record about how

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Speaker 1: wide open it is, and I can only imagine how

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Speaker 1: tilted your rankings will be to teams. Some of these

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Speaker 1: teams that have the potential to play four games right like,

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Speaker 1: because it's so wide open, there are a ton of

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Speaker 1: teams with talents that could play all four games and

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Speaker 1: rack up a ton of points.

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Speaker 2: The nice part with the playoff contest is that at

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Speaker 2: least now there's only one team on by, and so

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Speaker 2: it's a little bit easier to say, Okay, I know

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Speaker 2: that almost all teams are going to be playing. You know,

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Speaker 2: whichever team goes to the Super Bowl, there's a decent

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Speaker 2: there's some chance that they play all four games. You know,

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Speaker 2: obviously just from like just for folks who haven't played

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Speaker 2: playoff best ball. You essentially are drafting a team similarly

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Speaker 2: as you would a regular season bestball team, and you're

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Speaker 2: basically drafting players in hopes that they are their teams

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Speaker 2: actually advanced. So there will be a newsletter blast going

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Speaker 2: out on Wednesday with the late round Fantasy Football newcomer,

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Speaker 2: new employee branding Doula, who'll be putting together sort of

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Speaker 2: like a what to know about these teams from an

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Speaker 2: advanced analytics perspective and that way if the team looks bad,

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Speaker 2: I mean, like there's one team that we know is

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Speaker 2: pretty much dead going into the playoffs. That's Carolina, right,

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Speaker 2: you know, anything can happen. They beat the Rams before

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Speaker 2: we get it. But you know they're like ten what

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Speaker 2: ten and a half point dogs right now? Is that

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Speaker 2: what it opened that you know, we don't have like

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Speaker 2: very high hopes for for Carolinas. We probably aren't gonna

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Speaker 2: be drafting a ton of like Rico Doubt or or

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Speaker 2: Teo McMillan, because you want those players to carry on

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Speaker 2: to future rounds.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: The crazy thing is, though, is that you know now

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Speaker 2: that when you look at this landscape, there's really no

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Speaker 2: very super obvious team that we think is gonna win

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl this year. Usually you can get away

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Speaker 2: with like the Chiefs or even the Bills. The Bills

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Speaker 2: usually just have a team that you feel confident will

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Speaker 2: get to the divisional round and then the yeah, they're

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Speaker 2: gonna play.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna play three games, and Josh Allen is gonna

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Speaker 1: go super Saiyan and you're.

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Speaker 2: Gonna get it right right, you know, Josh Allen will

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Speaker 2: go nuts and he's gonna have two rushing touchdowns per

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Speaker 2: game and it's gonna be great for fantas. But even that,

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Speaker 2: you know, the Bills have their warts and have their issues.

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Speaker 2: That's why they're a six seed. And you know, like,

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Speaker 2: what do we think about a team like Jacksonville or

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Speaker 2: even Seattle who kind of came out of nowhere, or

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Speaker 2: Denver who gets the one seed and doesn't have the

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Speaker 2: best advanced analytics. You know, there's just a lot of

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Speaker 2: interesting storylines I think with the playoffs this year, which

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Speaker 2: is why I think Playoff Bastball is going to be

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Speaker 2: just insane, and it just it's gonna come down a strategy,

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Speaker 2: and it's going to come down to make sure you

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Speaker 2: are stacking your teams, just like if you draft ten,

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Speaker 2: if you draft fifty, if you have to one hundred teams,

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Speaker 2: make sure that those teams are stacked in the general

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Speaker 2: like approach that I take, And like, I'm not an

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Speaker 2: expert on this at all, you know, this is just

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Speaker 2: me being a degenerate fantasy football player who has a

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Speaker 2: podcast about season long fantasy football. But I think that

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Speaker 2: the general approaches get a stack in one conference and

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Speaker 2: then get a couple of stacks in the other conference.

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Speaker 2: So just just kind of hit your wagonto a team.

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Speaker 2: Is that the phrase hit your wagon into? Does that work? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: to a to a team in one conference, Like I

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Speaker 2: drafted a San Francisco stack yesterday with my first playoff

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Speaker 2: Bastball team, and then in the other conference, you know,

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Speaker 2: I got like a mini New England and then a

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Speaker 2: mini I can't remember what the other team was, but

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Speaker 2: you just sort of you know, hope for the best

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Speaker 2: then that those teams end up matching up against each

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Speaker 2: other in the Super Bowl, and just don't be overly

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Speaker 2: confident about who you think is gonna make it, you know,

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Speaker 2: because it's it's gonna be a wild playoff.

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Speaker 1: I think hitching your wagon goes back to Ralph Waldo Emerson.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, that's right, Google, jentlemen. This is actually one

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Speaker 1: of the mistakes that I see a lot of people

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Speaker 1: make when it comes to the Super Bowl too, when

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Speaker 1: the prop sheets come out and people are like picking

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Speaker 1: all these props, is that they just kind of go

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Speaker 1: nuts with props instead of like thinking about what the

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Speaker 1: game is going to, what the outcome of the game is,

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Speaker 1: and then just align all your props and try to

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Speaker 1: correlate everything that way. Of course, like you said, there's downside, right,

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Speaker 1: Don't don't think that you are just gonna submit this

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Speaker 1: and just win. But yeah, your opportunity for highest upside

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Speaker 1: is to find some sort of correlation, just like season

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Speaker 1: long fastball.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the hardest part with the playoffs stuff

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Speaker 2: is that, you know, I take San Francisco, then I

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Speaker 2: have to think about who they would be playing because

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Speaker 2: they receed in the NFL playoffs, you have to think

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Speaker 2: about who they're going to be playing in the second round,

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Speaker 2: and you don't want to necessarily match up that team

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Speaker 2: against another team that you would be stacking for the

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Speaker 2: second round because then half your you know, conference side

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Speaker 2: of your team is going to be eliminated. So there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of strategy involved. You know, there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of good contest selection over on DraftKings right now. There's

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Speaker 2: like a three dollars contest you can enter, and so

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Speaker 2: you can get decent volume. If you want to throw

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Speaker 2: thirty bucks at it or something, you get ten lineups

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Speaker 2: pretty easily. So go check it all out DraftKings dot com. Okay,

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Speaker 2: let's move on to what happened in the main event.

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Speaker 2: The regular season rich so many people. It's so fun

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Speaker 2: because again I've said this many times before. With becoming

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Speaker 2: a best ball bro, this is you know, people listen

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Speaker 2: to the Late Round podcast and perspectives and stuff, and

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Speaker 2: you're trying to but you're listening to me for expert

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Speaker 2: analysis if you will. You know, I don't love the

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Speaker 2: term expert, but just you know, analysis in general. You're

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Speaker 2: trying to allow me to help guide your team. But

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Speaker 2: with becoming a best ball bro, I've always treated it

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Speaker 2: as I am learning with you, and I'm talking to

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Speaker 2: people who have had success playing best ball in the past,

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Speaker 2: and how can I take these learnings and package it

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Speaker 2: up in a way that you guys are able to

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Speaker 2: take something away just as I am. Right, And so

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Speaker 2: it's fun because there's a lot of people, like people

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Speaker 2: weren't asking me about my season long you know, wins

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Speaker 2: and championships and how well I did in season long,

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Speaker 2: which by I too had a really good season long league,

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Speaker 2: a season long season.

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Speaker 1: But I wonder, I wonder why I did well then

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Speaker 1: and then.

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Speaker 2: In best ball. Best ball, though, is the one where

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Speaker 2: people are like, you know, where are you at with things,

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Speaker 2: how's it going with your advanced rate, et cetera. So

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Speaker 2: let me just lay it all out there. I drafted

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Speaker 2: two hundred and sixty teams on draftings this year. The

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Speaker 2: two biggest ones that I did. There was a fifty

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Speaker 2: nine dollars I can't remember what the contest was called

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Speaker 2: because I'm just blinking right now. And then there was

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Speaker 2: the MILLI right, the MILLI had the twenty dollars entry fee.

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Speaker 2: I did forty one of the fifty nine dollars entries,

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Speaker 2: and I actually advanced nineteen to forty one in that,

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Speaker 2: or maybe seventeen out of forty one in that contest.

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Speaker 2: But I want to focus on I didn't win, you know,

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Speaker 2: I didn't even get a finals team in that in

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Speaker 2: that contest, But the MILLI was was really fun for me.

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Speaker 2: This year, MAX entered all one hundred and fifty teams.

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Speaker 2: I advanced forty seven out of the one to fifty,

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Speaker 2: so obviously expectations I have forty sevens a lot. The

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Speaker 2: thing that was really crazy for me, I thought was

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Speaker 2: and this is kind of one of the things that

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Speaker 2: I've learned that I wanted to speak on, but I

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Speaker 2: think there's a good time to talk about it. One

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Speaker 2: of the things that I found interesting was like I

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Speaker 2: didn't have crazy exposure. I mean, we went over my

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Speaker 2: exposure on the last episode that we did before the

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Speaker 2: season started. I don't think I had a single guy

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Speaker 2: over twenty percent in my portfolio out of those one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty teams. And to get forty seven meant

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Speaker 2: one of two things. Okay, one of them was I

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Speaker 2: just like hit on the general right guys. But I

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Speaker 2: think the other bigger point was that this season in

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Speaker 2: fantasy football, it didn't have these like insane league winners

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Speaker 2: that you absolutely needed to have. You know, you sure

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Speaker 2: there were playoff league winners, and you know you needed

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Speaker 2: certain players at every step of the way. And I'll

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Speaker 2: talk about this with with one of the lineups that

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Speaker 2: I had, But you know, it seemed like there wasn't.

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Speaker 2: You know, we had a Mecca Buka who was crushing

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Speaker 2: the first month of the season, he fell off. You

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Speaker 2: had Javonte Williams kind of fell off. Jonathan Taylor was

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Speaker 2: on a historic run and he fell off after Daniel

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Speaker 2: Jones went down. So like, there were really really good

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Speaker 2: seasons CMC B, John Robinson, plenty of guys that were

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Speaker 2: really good this year, but there was nothing that really

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Speaker 2: there wasn't like four or five guys that you absolutely

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Speaker 2: needed to have that would have had like absurd advanced rates.

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Speaker 2: And even like the Jonathan Taylors who had really good

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Speaker 2: advanced rates, I was basically at market with a player

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Speaker 2: like JT maybe slightly below maybe like seven percent this

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Speaker 2: year instead of you know the eight percent. But overall,

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Speaker 2: I think that's really it was a good year for

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Speaker 2: the flatter exposure in my opinion, And what I noticed

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Speaker 2: then going into the playoffs with forty seven teams was

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Speaker 2: that because I had that flat exposure, I felt pretty

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Speaker 2: good about at least advancing to the Semis. About having

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Speaker 2: a handful of teams getting to the Semis. So forty

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Speaker 2: seven out of one to fifty, you would expect just

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Speaker 2: given one out of twelve advancing in the next pod

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Speaker 2: in the next round, you would expect about four teams

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Speaker 2: to advance right to the Semis. I got five teams

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Speaker 2: to the Semis. I didn't feel amazing about any of them,

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Speaker 2: but I felt fine, like I thought they were competitive,

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Speaker 2: and then I got one of them to the finals.

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Speaker 2: So I am officially a MILLI finalist, folks, officially, which

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Speaker 2: I can. You know, we'll check mark next to that,

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Speaker 2: which is nice. You know. That's that's when I really

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Speaker 2: felt the most like a best ball bro is when

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Speaker 2: that happened. But then I really felt like a best

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Speaker 2: ball bro because as one of those MILLI teams had

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Speaker 2: Derrick Henry, Let's go that Saturday game against the Pack.

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Speaker 2: Not only was it like amazing that Derrick Henry was

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Speaker 2: dominating and he just happened to be on my Milli team.

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Speaker 2: But it was also amazing because I've had a sort

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Speaker 2: of tumultuous relationship with Derek Henry as a fantasy analyst

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Speaker 2: through the years, you know, where all of that sort

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Speaker 2: of just disappeared, and now we're I broke even with

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Speaker 2: Derrick Henry after this, right, like we're good. You know,

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Speaker 2: I didn't fade him this year. Clearly. There was a

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Speaker 2: clip that went around. I was on Davis Maddock's show

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Speaker 2: on his YouTube channel earlier this season, and I mentioned

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Speaker 2: in this clip because shout out Sam Sherman, friend of

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Speaker 2: the show, who was on the show last year before

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Speaker 2: he sort of retired from creating fantasy content. He won

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Speaker 2: BBM over on Underdog and he won the top prize

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Speaker 2: and he crushed it and I'm really happy for him.

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Speaker 2: But he had Dereck Henry as well. But there was

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Speaker 2: a clip of me and Maddie talking about Henry and

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Speaker 2: what the clip was basically me, this is in like July,

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Speaker 2: and the clip was basically me saying like it's not

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Speaker 2: like I was like, isn't it crazy that best ball bros?

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Speaker 2: Are fading Derrick Henry Because we all know inherently he

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Speaker 2: has a high weekly ceiling, right, but like everyone just

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Speaker 2: ends up fading him. And at the very end, I said,

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Speaker 2: I want to at least be heavier on Dereck Henry

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Speaker 2: than the standard best ball bro and so I did

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Speaker 2: do that. I think I was at like seven percent

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Speaker 2: ish with with Henry this year. That was helpful obviously

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Speaker 2: for this lineup. And this lineup also had i'll just

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Speaker 2: read it to you guys, Brock Perdy, and so I

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Speaker 2: stacked Purdy with Juwan Jennings, Ricky Piersaal and Christian McCaffrey.

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence, who I that was my go to you guys,

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Speaker 2: remember that that was my go to Like late round

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Speaker 2: dart Stack was.

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Speaker 1: With Jilla over Baker. That will be on like the

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Speaker 1: twenty five late round in Memoriam is going to be

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Speaker 1: a t low greater than Baker for sure.

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Speaker 2: Yeah that's right. Yeah, bold prediction. Teelaw over Baker. I

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Speaker 2: got crushed for that. So te law I I stacked

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Speaker 2: him with Diami Brown, which was a very frequent go

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Speaker 2: to for me, with with Trevor Lawrence, which ended up

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Speaker 2: being should have been Parker Washington. But that's fine. I

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Speaker 2: think directionally it was a fine process and then I

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Speaker 2: had base Shall Tuton, which obviously would have loved to

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Speaker 2: have ETN. I looked back at that draft though, ETM

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Speaker 2: went two rounds before Tuton, so it wasn't like I

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Speaker 2: screwed that up and like took Tuton. I mean I

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Speaker 2: had ETN ranked ahead of Tuton, but you know, I

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Speaker 2: was probably closer between the two than I should have been.

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Speaker 2: And then also I had Michael Pennix stacked with Kyle

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Speaker 2: Pitts on this team. So if you're if you're listening

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Speaker 2: to these players a little bit, you realize that, oh,

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Speaker 2: week fifteen, JJ had Kyle Pitts in Week sixteen. Week

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Speaker 2: sixteen I had the Brock Purty Christian McCaffrey game against

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Speaker 2: the Colts. And then week seventeen I had here's the

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Speaker 2: running backside, Derrick Henry Isaiah Pacheco, who I didn't even

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Speaker 2: draft that much this year. He just happened to be

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Speaker 2: on this team. Base Shall Tuton and JK. Dobbins drafted

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Speaker 2: a lot of Dobbins, Jackson Smith, th Jigba. Obviously that

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Speaker 2: helps out George Pickens, DJ Moore. So that was a

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Speaker 2: bringback for the for the San Francisco Stack for week seventeen,

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Speaker 2: Darius Slayton, Jalen Nole, who actually ended up being in

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Speaker 2: my lineup in the final. He was an innings eater

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Speaker 2: this year. He had some spike weeks because because those

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Speaker 2: games happened earlier. It was kind of crazy because I'm like,

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Speaker 2: oh my gosh, this is kind of coming together because

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Speaker 2: Derek Henry went off for like forty points and then

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Speaker 2: Jalen Nole scored like fifteen the Chargers, and so he

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Speaker 2: found the lineup, and then Diami Brown like I mentioned,

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Speaker 2: and then Devon Veley, who was actually starting to come

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Speaker 2: on towards towards the end of that after they traded

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Speaker 2: Rashid Shaheed, and then at tight end, I Kyle Pitts,

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Speaker 2: Chicka Konkuo who also found my lineup week seventeen, and

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Speaker 2: then Tyler Higbee was the last one obviously got injured,

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Speaker 2: but I think process was fine with Higbe given the

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Speaker 2: way that they used their tight ends in that offense.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Noah. Noah had a five for sixteen

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Speaker 1: and four for seventy seven. I think one of the

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Speaker 1: points we'll get to about this lineup is there weren't

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Speaker 1: any dead people. There weren't any zeros right outside of.

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Speaker 2: Pennsn Yeah, not a ton you had. I mean, like

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Speaker 2: you had vele Val was banged up and he and

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Speaker 2: he and then Dobbin Dobbin Sue. But all of those

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Speaker 2: guys contributed probably aside from Diami Brown, all of those

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00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,560
Speaker 2: guys at one point contributed to the lineup this year,

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Speaker 2: right because Pennix obviously didn't play. But yeah, so, I mean,

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Speaker 2: long story short, I had Derrick Henry when it mattered.

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Speaker 2: I had Kyle Pitts when it mattered. And this team,

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Speaker 2: you know, I'm gonna get to this too, but this team.

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Speaker 2: People talk about pod luck, and this is one of

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Speaker 2: the things that I've learned. I think I talked about

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Speaker 2: this last year too as sort of like a minor learning.

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Speaker 2: I think the pod stuff is very important and part

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Speaker 2: of this game. Like, if you were to not do pods,

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Speaker 2: you would just have the same players in each round

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Speaker 2: of the finals, right, Like it would just be you know,

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Speaker 2: in week six and sixteen, it would just be all

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Speaker 2: the Kyle Pitts teams that would that would be you know,

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Speaker 2: mostly in he'd be like ninety percent rostered, and then

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Speaker 2: the next round it would be all Pukinnakua, right, and

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Speaker 2: then the next round. It's just I don't think that's

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Speaker 2: the proper way that you should do. This is their

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Speaker 2: luck involved in pods. So what I'm saying with pod

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Speaker 2: luck for those of you who don't understand, after your

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Speaker 2: twelve team league, after you advance, after two of the

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Speaker 2: twelve teams advanced into the playoffs, you get thrown into

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Speaker 2: random twelve team leagues, right, and then you have to

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Speaker 2: get first place out of twelve, and then the next

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Speaker 2: round you have to get first place out of twelve again,

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Speaker 2: and then the final round is the finals, right, And

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Speaker 2: so obviously to get first place out of twelve that's

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Speaker 2: pretty low odds. But you know, instead of instead of

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Speaker 2: grouping everyone together, they put them in these twelve twelve

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Speaker 2: team pods. And I think a huge reason for that

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00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,000
Speaker 2: is because we want to make sure that that we

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Speaker 2: have a lot of variation with teams and rosters as

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Speaker 2: we go from one pod to the next. Is there

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Speaker 2: luck involved? Yeah, of course there's gonna be luck involved.

393
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Speaker 2: There's luck involved in fantasy football in general, you know.

394
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Speaker 2: But I do think that it's a it's still a

395
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Speaker 2: fairly reasonable way to do all this and it works

396
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Speaker 2: both ways. Like the team that I got to the

397
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Speaker 2: final rich so in the Semis, when and when pukin

398
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,560
Speaker 2: Akua went off, and he had like I think sixty

399
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Speaker 2: three percent roster ship or something in the finals of

400
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Speaker 2: of of of the MILLI. But when pukin Akua went off,

401
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,399
Speaker 2: my only Nikua team out of my five semi final

402
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:25,520
Speaker 2: teams had four other pukinnakua teams in the pod. Like

403
00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:29,199
Speaker 2: the odds of that are astronomically horrific, right, And I

404
00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:31,680
Speaker 2: somehow I hit on that, And I'm like, you gotta

405
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,360
Speaker 2: be kidding me, Like, if there was one other team,

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Speaker 2: at least I'd have a decent shot. But the fact

407
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 2: that there were four other teams, when Nakua goes nuts

408
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,160
Speaker 2: and he's like one of the guys that you need,

409
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,440
Speaker 2: it just means that that that team could easily die, right.

410
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Speaker 2: It just so happens that the team that got through,

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Speaker 2: which still scored well over two hundred points in the

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Speaker 2: in the Semis, the team that got through out of

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Speaker 2: the twelve teams zero pukinakua. I was I was fighting

414
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Speaker 2: with zero Pukinakua teams. And that was a key reason

415
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Speaker 2: I think that that you know again, I think it

416
00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 2: scored like two hundred and five, two hundred and six

417
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 2: points in the semis, so it was still a really

418
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,439
Speaker 2: good team. It could have beaten a Nakua team. But

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Speaker 2: it makes it easier whenever you have a little bit

420
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Speaker 2: of that pod luck. So I had luck on one

421
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Speaker 2: side and I had no luck on the other side.

422
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Speaker 2: But fortunately I got one team through. That team was

423
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Speaker 2: that San Francisco stack. I had Derrick Henry San Francisco

424
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Speaker 2: goes off against Chicago, and I finished in fortieth place

425
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Speaker 2: in the MILLI for twenty thousand dollars. Well done, Thank you,

426
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 2: thank you, very very crazy. They're just a really fun

427
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:37,679
Speaker 2: crazy you know. It's not like the massive, massive wins

428
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 2: that people have. But to me, it was meaningful from

429
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 2: the standpoint of like really digging into best ball last year,

430
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Speaker 2: having a rougher season and trying to figure this game

431
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 2: out a little bit, and then changing my approach a

432
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,159
Speaker 2: little bit in twenty twenty five, and then seeing the

433
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 2: results be what they were. I was pleased overall to

434
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 2: be able to have a top fifty team, you know

435
00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 2: in the MILLI, and.

436
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:02,080
Speaker 1: A great I mean that. I can't believe Sam was

437
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:06,359
Speaker 1: just fading everybody in that in that that Niners Bears game, right,

438
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 1: because I think, okay, because that game was just fireworks,

439
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:13,200
Speaker 1: right especially.

440
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:14,640
Speaker 2: The game was amazing, and it got to the point

441
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 2: once Rock Purty hit my lineup, I'm like, uh, and

442
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:19,879
Speaker 2: CMC you hit my lineup. That's a cool thing. With

443
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,119
Speaker 2: best Ball, I was like, you're waiting for these guys

444
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 2: to just hit your lineup and be viable pieces because

445
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 2: someone in your line I might have seventeen points. You're

446
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 2: waiting for CMC to score seventeen points, and then he

447
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 2: hits it, and then every yard you're just you're just

448
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 2: piling up the points over and over again. Uh. And

449
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:35,679
Speaker 2: that's what was going on with me with with CMC

450
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 2: and Purty. I could have used, you know, a couple

451
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 2: more a couple more looks to CMC, but I can't,

452
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:40,919
Speaker 2: you know, I can't get greedy.

453
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, and wee Week seventeen document. There were fire fireworks

454
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 1: in that game, fireworks in that that Ravens Packers game.

455
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:55,640
Speaker 1: It's best Ball will remain this very interesting puzzle of Okay,

456
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 1: we got to survive the regular season, right, we got

457
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 1: to get to the playoff. But in order to get

458
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:04,120
Speaker 1: these teams that score a bunch of points, there has

459
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 1: to also be correlation. So they's just always going to

460
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: be this fine balance of pick the right guys, but

461
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 1: also give yourself the best shot at the end of

462
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 1: the season to score as many points as possible when

463
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 1: it matters most.

464
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, So let's move on to some of the things

465
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 2: I learned, because that's one of the things that I

466
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 2: think is important to talk about. Okay, I saw a

467
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 2: lot of people after their teams got eliminated from whatever contest,

468
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 2: whatever basketball contest, the Millie BBM, whatever. I saw a

469
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:37,479
Speaker 2: lot of people that were tweeting and frustration, saying, like

470
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 2: Week seventeen, correlation doesn't matter if you don't get there. Yeah,

471
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 2: of course, of course it doesn't matter, right. I think

472
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,359
Speaker 2: where people are thinking about this incorrectly and saying that

473
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 2: correlation and by correlation, I don't even mean individual team stacking,

474
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 2: I mean game stacking more so of like those Week

475
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,959
Speaker 2: seventeen games. I think what people are kind of getting

476
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 2: wrong here if they feel that way, is that you

477
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:04,120
Speaker 2: shouldn't be forcing the week seventeen correlations, right, Like, it's

478
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 2: not that hard to do that when you're talking about

479
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 2: a fourteenth round bringback, Right, Like, the difference between your

480
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:15,199
Speaker 2: feelings between a fourteenth round pick and a or an

481
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 2: early fourteenth round pick and a late fourteenth round pick

482
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 2: shouldn't be so significant that you're like, oh, I can't

483
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 2: go after this guy even though he would allow this

484
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 2: this game stack to be complete. There's just so much

485
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:27,359
Speaker 2: variation in variance, Like you don't know if that's going

486
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 2: to be the guy or not. And you can sit

487
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 2: back in hindsight and say, oh, I should have gotten

488
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 2: Javonte Williams, but he didn't fit my okay, but you

489
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 2: didn't know Javonte Williams was going to be one of

490
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 2: the better values this year, right, Like, yes, in hindsight,

491
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,120
Speaker 2: you could do that, But while you're drafting, what if

492
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 2: you drafted Javonte Williams and he was the biggest value

493
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 2: and then that was the game that blew up in

494
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,200
Speaker 2: Week seventeen and everything worked out really really well for you. Right.

495
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 2: I still think logically this is just this is my

496
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:56,479
Speaker 2: now maybe a little bit more than amateur opinion on this,

497
00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 2: but my opinion on this is that you should drafting.

498
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 2: Of course, you should be drafting team correlation. Individual team

499
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,879
Speaker 2: right stacks are very important. I don't think you can

500
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 2: get too big, honestly with a lot of these stacks,

501
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 2: especially in a twenty round format. But with these stacks,

502
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 2: there's two reasons for it. This is something that Mike

503
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 2: Leoni brought up years ago that I think is just

504
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,919
Speaker 2: a really important because people think about stacks and they

505
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 2: think about only the weekly upside of that stack. But

506
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 2: there's season long upside with that stack. Right if you

507
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 2: ended up picking like I had a ton of Drake

508
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 2: May this year, which is probably why I had a

509
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 2: good advance rate, because what happens if Drake May goes off,

510
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 2: what happens at the New England offense is the offense

511
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 2: it goes off, everyone in that offense beats ADP expectation

512
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 2: and everyone becomes a value. And so when you're drafting

513
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 2: those teams, you're doing it, Yes for the weekly ceiling.

514
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 2: If I draft Kashawan Boody in the twentieth round and

515
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: I had Drake May and he scores two touchdowns, then yeah,

516
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 2: that's a huge boost to my overall team. But what's

517
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 2: just as important is the fact that I drafted the

518
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 2: offense that was the value offense for that year, right,

519
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 2: whether it be both ramondre Stevenson and Trevion Henderson were

520
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 2: find best ball picks this year, right, Like the whole

521
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 2: offense was worthwhile to go after Hunter Henry was worthwhile. Okay,

522
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,919
Speaker 2: Sean Boody, Stefan Diggs, they all had their moments, they

523
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,479
Speaker 2: all had their their ceiling games and their usability. And

524
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 2: so I think that that's one thing that that people

525
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 2: should definitely recognize, is that you should be stacking teams

526
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 2: at the very least. Now, is there an argument to

527
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:25,719
Speaker 2: be made that you shouldn't worry so much about week

528
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 2: seventeen correlation, Sure, but I'm still going to draft week

529
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 2: seventeen correlation because if you get to week seventeen, then

530
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 2: you can, like, if those teams blow up, if that

531
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 2: game blows up, you're a really really good spot. You know,

532
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 2: I would have loved to have a bet I didn't

533
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,959
Speaker 2: have a bringback with Derrick Henry in that in my

534
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 2: in my lineup, I only had Derek Henry as a

535
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 2: standalone piece. Would have loved to have Christian Watson or

536
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 2: you know, someone else in that in that packers. I mean,

537
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 2: it's basically Christian Watson, but you know, I would have

538
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 2: loved to have that kind of bring back. But even

539
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 2: like process wise, would have loved to have Rome Adobs,

540
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 2: a guy that I drafted a lot of, you know,

541
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 2: and I just didn't just because of the way that draft

542
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 2: kind of worked out. But I do think that if

543
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:14,879
Speaker 2: your goal and best ball is to simply not is

544
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 2: to simply profit, right, is to simply have like a

545
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 2: winning season that way, then you probably shouldn't be entering

546
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 2: a large scale tournament where you know, the odds are

547
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,639
Speaker 2: pretty not in your favor to have a massive seaton

548
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,199
Speaker 2: like to have that massive season, right, there are a

549
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 2: lot of other contests that you can choose from that

550
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 2: have flatter payout structures, that have an easier time to

551
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:40,880
Speaker 2: get to the final, and you can still get a sweat.

552
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 2: That's another thing that I wanted to bring up today

553
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 2: is that, like in general, I do think that I

554
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 2: want to look at game selection a little bit differently

555
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 2: next year, Like I want to make sure that I

556
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 2: am in some of those smaller tournaments, in smaller contests

557
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 2: to be able to have those sweats in Week seventeen.

558
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, at the end of the day, of course, getting

559
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:04,440
Speaker 1: their matters, but the difference between one and twenty first

560
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: place in first place is still one million, nine hundred

561
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,160
Speaker 1: and ninety nine thousand dollars right.

562
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 2: Right, right, And and even if you want to make

563
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 2: the argument of like you know, me getting fortieth and

564
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 2: getting twenty k and you know you not making the final,

565
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 2: I mean, the funny part about it is that is

566
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 2: the argument that if you don't make the final, that

567
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 2: you should be stacking week fifteen and Week sixteen games,

568
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 2: or you just shouldn't stack at all. Because inherently we

569
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 2: know that game stacking works because we see it in

570
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 2: DFS every single week. Right, the best DFS players in

571
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 2: the world wouldn't be game stacking if it wasn't a

572
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,439
Speaker 2: proper strategy. We know that it is a proper and

573
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 2: smart strategy. So is the idea that you're just trying

574
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 2: to get into the finals and just you know, let thing,

575
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 2: let variants take the wheel. I mean, sure you can

576
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 2: do that, Like Mike Leoni even brought that up multiple

577
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 2: times on the show over the last couple of years,

578
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 2: that you can still you know, try to game stack

579
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 2: in week fifteen and sixteen. That's fine. I just say

580
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 2: I would say I wouldn't dismiss game stacking just because

581
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 2: there is variance involved in this game. I think that

582
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 2: you know, go look at the winning like, go look

583
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 2: at Sam's team that won. I mean he had he

584
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 2: had like nine different game stacks in his in his lineup, right,

585
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 2: because you want that back and forth nature to these games.

586
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:22,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that the point you brought up at

587
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 1: the beginning is is the correct one in that Yes,

588
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: maybe we shouldn't completely go out of our way to

589
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 1: assemble these game stacks, but when ADP value is fair,

590
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: then it seems like the best course of action if

591
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 1: you want to maximize the value of your entry, that

592
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 1: you should be looking for that tiebreaker to be at

593
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 1: games for sure.

594
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent. Another thing I wanted to bring up.

595
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 2: I think a huge part of the success this year

596
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 2: is that last year I drafted maybe out of one

597
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty teams, maybe like less than ten three

598
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 2: quarterback teams. Like it was very two quarterback team heavy.

599
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 2: This year. Now DraftKings has twenty rounds, so it's a

600
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 2: little bit easier to do it on DK, But I

601
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 2: think I probably had ten two quarterback teams this year.

602
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 2: You know, like the majority of the vast majority of

603
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 2: them were three quarterback builds. And I think that's a

604
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 2: huge reason for some of the success that I had

605
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 2: this year with advance rate and then obviously getting a

606
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 2: team in the final. But you know, to me, if

607
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 2: you think about this, just like if I take some

608
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 2: of my season long analysis and kind of attribute it

609
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 2: to best ball quarterback, the elite quarterbacks, you're going after

610
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,719
Speaker 2: them more so for the predictability of them as opposed

611
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 2: to the weekly ceiling of them. Like, yes, Josh Allen

612
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 2: has the highest weekly ceiling of any quarterback in fantasy football,

613
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 2: but there are other quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence, you know, Brock Purty.

614
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 2: They both showed that that can still have pretty big ceilings,

615
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 2: you know when they throw for five touchdowns, because it's

616
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 2: possible they can throw for five touchdowns, And you're getting

617
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 2: those guys in the double digit rounds pretty consistently. So

618
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 2: the predictability of the quarterback position in a tournament environment

619
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 2: is a lot less important than it would be in

620
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 2: your twelve team league where you are kind of playing

621
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 2: more for like, you could make the argument that there

622
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 2: is more of a floor play than a ceiling play

623
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 2: in that environment, but then on top of that, you're

624
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 2: actually having to set your lineup and you're actually having

625
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 2: to say, I'm gonna play Josh Allen over Trevor Lawrence.

626
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 2: But Trevor Lawrence can easily outscore Josh Allen. And in

627
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 2: a fantasy draft, we know this is where the late

628
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 2: round quarterback strategy spawned from. We know we're getting usable

629
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 2: quarterbacks late in the draft, and so you probably should

630
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 2: more often than not, even regardless of the results this year.

631
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 2: I mean I didn't draft many elite quarterback teams. You

632
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 2: probably should wait on your quarterback more frequently as long

633
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 2: as you're getting those three quarterback builds, and those three

634
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 2: quarterback builds are enabling you to hit that weekly ceiling

635
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 2: with that additional piece more frequently. But then also you're

636
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 2: getting a higher chance of just finding the guy finding

637
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 2: the Drake May this year, finding the Matthew Stafford this year,

638
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 2: whoever that player is. It's giving you a better chance

639
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 2: to do that as opposed to taking on that opportunity

640
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 2: cost of a Josh Allen in the third round.

641
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 1: You're talking to the guy whose top drafted player last

642
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 1: year was JJ McCarthy and this year was Daniel Jones.

643
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 1: So I know what quarterback pain is when you don't

644
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: have enough options within your lineup, And to your point

645
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 1: about season long, the difference is there. In season long, again,

646
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 1: you're trying to beat one dude or one dude dead.

647
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 1: In these you have to beat your entire pod or

648
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 1: if you get to the final, you got to beat

649
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 1: a thousand other people. So having that floor and having

650
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 1: that security is nowhere near as valuable as it is

651
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 1: in a head to head matchup. So yeah, as someone

652
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: who two years in a row was burned by some

653
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 1: quarterback selections, I think I will be going what actually

654
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: is the safe route in getting a third quarterback right

655
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 1: by Patty and Roster. I think I will definitely be

656
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 1: pivoting to that a little bit more next year.

657
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 2: We look, we talked about it so much over the

658
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 2: summer about if you guys go back, and I mean

659
00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 2: I wouldn't advise you go back and listen because that

660
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:01,959
Speaker 2: would be weird behavior. But we talked about so much

661
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 2: during the summer about three quarterback builds and how it

662
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 2: became more difficult to do so towards the end because

663
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 2: the back end of that quarterback group was just getting

664
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 2: closer and closer to those those middle round guys. But

665
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 2: then it made so much sense to get the Dak

666
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 2: Prescott's of the world, the Drake Mays of the world,

667
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 2: because they're where they were being drafted wasn't tremendously different

668
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 2: than where like cam Ward was being drafted, right, and

669
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 2: so why wouldn't you just get the guys that we

670
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 2: knew had like that, that true elite ceiling. Yeah, I mean, like,

671
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 2: I think going three quarterback is the metaph for a

672
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 2: reason at this point, Like I you know, this is

673
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 2: anecdotal for sure. I'm not really coming at it with

674
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 2: strong data. It's a little bit more difficult to analyze

675
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 2: best ball stuff just because things have been flow and

676
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 2: you know, it's just there's different drafting behaviors and stuff,

677
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 2: and there's a lot of data in general. But I

678
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 2: do think, like logically, a three quarterback build makes more sense.

679
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 2: I think the three tight end build makes a lot

680
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 2: of sense too. You get that on DraftKings. I think

681
00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 2: it makes it a lot easier. It's full PPR, so

682
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 2: a flexo could be filled, you know, with the tight end.

683
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 2: And then also it's it's you know, we were getting

684
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 2: legit usable tight ends in the last round of drafts.

685
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 2: Harold Fannon was a twentieth round pick throughout the summer.

686
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 2: You know, the the RAMS guys were all usable at

687
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 2: some point, it had some usability, and they were all

688
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 2: drafted later because it's a onesie position, it's a low

689
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 2: in demand position, and so therefore those guys get pushed

690
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 2: back because the supply is plentiful, but the demand is lower. Right,

691
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 2: So we're all drafting wide receivers and running backs earlier,

692
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 2: which pushes quarterbacks and tight ends later, which is which

693
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 2: is fantasy football one oh one. You know, And what

694
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 2: I had talked about the late round quarterback in that

695
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 2: ebook back in twenty twelve. And so I think though

696
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 2: that you can make the argument that you could even

697
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 2: do this with elite tight ends with Trey McBride and

698
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,480
Speaker 2: then just get two guys in the eighteenth and nineteenth round.

699
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 2: I tried to do that frequently over the summer.

700
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 1: You know.

701
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 2: Obviously, Trey McBride hit brock Bauers. I'd say didn't George

702
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 2: Kittle probably would have been fine had he not gotten hurt.

703
00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 2: But yeah, like I think we're gonna see a reaction,

704
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 2: pretty strong reaction to some of those elite tight end,

705
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 2: like to a brock Boers next year. It might make

706
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 2: them more appetizing. But I you know, Trey McBride was

707
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:11,919
Speaker 2: my highest roster tight end this year. Remember we talked

708
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 2: about that with the Exposure show, and a lot of

709
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 2: that just had to do a simple adp in the

710
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 2: fact that, like I didn't think he was gonna do

711
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 2: this right, it was. It was the fact that he

712
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:25,840
Speaker 2: entered that early third round so frequently when there was

713
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 2: that clear drop in overall, like after that, like t Higgins,

714
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 2: jsn Range, it got into like Marvin Harrison Junior, who

715
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 2: I wasn't high on, and like it got really iffy,

716
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 2: and I'm like, yeah, sure, I'll take Trey McBride. That

717
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 2: makes sense now. And plus maybe I drafted Jamar Chase

718
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 2: or something like that for a week seventeen bring back.

719
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 2: But I do think that we might see later tight

720
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,359
Speaker 2: ends this year. But I do worry that we're gonna

721
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 2: see a similar situation happen to tight end this year

722
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 2: than we did, like we did quarterback, where once you

723
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 2: get into round you know fourteen, you're gonna really really

724
00:34:58,040 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 2: dry up because people are gonna force them up a

725
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 2: little bit. You know.

726
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, that merge actually kind of does seem inevitable, which

727
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 1: we saw at quarterback last year where it's gonna go

728
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 1: a couple guys early and then no one is going

729
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,800
Speaker 1: to be available late and everything's just gonna get smushed

730
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 1: in that like nine to ten round range.

731
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 2: Yeah. One thing that was so evident this year was

732
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:19,840
Speaker 2: the tight end dead zone. Did that episode on the

733
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 2: tight end dead zone over the summer. The only guy

734
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 2: that I would have drafted out of there was was

735
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,760
Speaker 2: Tucker Craft, and he was looking good until he got hurt, obviously.

736
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 2: You know, it was basically like if you're going to

737
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:31,399
Speaker 2: draft a tight end from the tight end dead zone,

738
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 2: which is generally like that after tight end five range,

739
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 2: you know, after like the first four rounds or so

740
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,879
Speaker 2: of drafts, if you're going to draft a player from there,

741
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 2: he'd better be a year one or year two guy, essentially.

742
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 2: And that's what we saw, right. We saw Tyler Warren

743
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 2: have a good year from an ADP expectation standpoint. He

744
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 2: didn't have the as good of a ceiling as people,

745
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,879
Speaker 2: I think think that he did and perceive that he did,

746
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 2: but he obviously was a good value pick. Colson Lovelin

747
00:35:57,680 --> 00:35:58,919
Speaker 2: came on towards the end of the year a little

748
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 2: bit obviously, he had a Week eighteen game that didn't

749
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 2: really matter that much, and then Tucker Craft was also

750
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 2: a huge, huge value there. And then once again in

751
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 2: the late rounds, it's anyone's game, right, like, do whatever,

752
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 2: draft Kyle Pitts, do whatever you want once you get

753
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 2: to those rounds. But I really I would imagine more

754
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 2: and more people are gonna are gonna understand and see

755
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 2: that the Travis Kelceys, Travis Kelsey was actually okay, Like

756
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 2: that was probably you know, I faded him for the

757
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 2: most part. That was probably a semi mistake. But like

758
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:29,240
Speaker 2: Mark Andrews wasn't massively high on, you know, or Evan Ingram,

759
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 2: I pulled back from after like June, in that time frame,

760
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 2: after I did a little bit more research, those guys

761
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 2: in the middle rounds were just we're not gonna want

762
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 2: to have anything to do with those guys, and just

763
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 2: just generally where ADP settles. Now, if that gap does exist,

764
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 2: like you're suggesting and saying, where it's like, all right,

765
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 2: we're gonna get two or three guys early and then

766
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 2: there's gonna be a serious gap until round ten, similar

767
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 2: to what we see with quarterback. Then you know, then

768
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 2: there's a discussion that we had. But if we see

769
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:58,839
Speaker 2: what we saw last year. Sam Laporta was another one

770
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 2: where I didn't draft him that much. I know he

771
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 2: got hurt, but he wasn't pacing to be anything special

772
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 2: this year. It just falls into that category of the

773
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 2: tight end dead zone.

774
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we're just gonna the old, tried and true,

775
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 1: get the young guys, and get the guys attached to

776
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 1: good offenses somewhere late in the draft, and then I

777
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 1: think I'm very curious as to what the temperature will

778
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 1: be for Bowers because this is kind of the year

779
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,439
Speaker 1: from hell from him. Right, his knee explodes, he tries

780
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 1: to play through it. Geno at quarterback Pete Carroll just

781
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 1: smacking on some common sidelines.

782
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, no more exactly.

783
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:38,319
Speaker 1: So we'll see new quarterback, new coach if because realistically

784
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 1: the gap between Bowers and McBride should remain fairly tight.

785
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:44,959
Speaker 1: I don't think your average drafter is going to see

786
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:48,240
Speaker 1: those two players similarly because of how bad Bowers this season.

787
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 2: The other thing too, that we have to recognize, like

788
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 2: I can sit here and be like I got Trey

789
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,440
Speaker 2: McBride right, I drafted him on eighteen percent of my

790
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 2: teams and he balled out. Guys, I got lucky that

791
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray got hurt. You know, Like those are the

792
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 2: things that can happen for that outcome to look the

793
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 2: way that it did, right, And so I think like

794
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 2: a favorable maybe eighty fifth to ninetieth percentile outcome hit

795
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 2: for Trey McBride, and like a thirtieth percentile of twentieth

796
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 2: percentile outcome probably hit for brock Bauers this year, right,

797
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,760
Speaker 2: And so you just think about next year moving forward,

798
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 2: If it's more fifty to fifty as we should project

799
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 2: from just a median outcome standpoint, then that's gonna They're

800
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 2: gonna mean in the middle a little bit more like

801
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 2: it's not gonna be as dramatic as the result showed,

802
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 2: you know here in twenty twenty five. Not only that,

803
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 2: but there's gonna be change in Arizona. We already got

804
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 2: news that that Gannon is gone and that coaching staff

805
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 2: is gonna be revamped, and who knows what happens with Kyler,

806
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:41,320
Speaker 2: But the bottom line is like there's always going to

807
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,760
Speaker 2: be these like things that happen with all these players.

808
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 2: This is why I do episodes on things I got

809
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 2: right and things I got wrong every year, which will

810
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 2: come out in a couple of weeks. Where I first

811
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 2: start with the things I got wrong is because I

812
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,359
Speaker 2: asked myself, did I get this wrong? Did I get

813
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 2: this right? Or were there certain things that just kind

814
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 2: of went a certain way and it wasn't predictable in

815
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 2: the process was still sound Now I already know a

816
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 2: couple of players off the top of my head that

817
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 2: I just missed on and was had bad process with.

818
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 2: But there were some things that I got wrong this

819
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 2: year that I'm not that mad about that I got wrong,

820
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,320
Speaker 2: and things that I got right where I got lucky,

821
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 2: you know that just it was it was a fortunate

822
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 2: thing to get right, and that's the way that it

823
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 2: goes sometimes within this game. I have a couple more

824
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 2: things that I want to bring up with what I

825
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 2: learned this year. One of the key things that I'm

826
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:30,360
Speaker 2: going to take away is being overly concerned about injuries. Now,

827
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:34,360
Speaker 2: being concerned about injuries is important, Okay, I'm talking about

828
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 2: taking it to the next level and not allowing the

829
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:42,399
Speaker 2: market to just adjust it on my behalf. Right. Good

830
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 2: example of that is obviously Matthew Stafford. This is of course,

831
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:49,879
Speaker 2: hindsight's in our favor here, okay. But I was I'm

832
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 2: so frustrating talking about this.

833
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 1: I was still with the old guy with the back, like,

834
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 1: who can blame us?

835
00:39:55,719 --> 00:40:01,320
Speaker 2: Who can blame us? I was so high on Pooka,

836
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,879
Speaker 2: Davante Adams. I actually still drafted a ton of I drive. Look.

837
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 2: I ended up with I think thirteen percent Pooka and

838
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 2: like sixteen fifteen, sixteen percent DeVante, and maybe like eight

839
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 2: or nine percent, maybe nine percent Stafford. So I was

840
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 2: still above market and above consensus with each of those guys.

841
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 2: But I gotta tell you, guys like that was weighted

842
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 2: a lot by pre mid July drafts, Like I was

843
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 2: drafting Stafford everywhere before that as my third quarterback, and

844
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 2: then all the news comes out about his back, and

845
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 2: I slowed down. And I remember in my rankings, even

846
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 2: because I had Puoka uh in that like after Justin

847
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 2: Jefferson and Cedee Lamb Tire, I had Puka next, and

848
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 2: I moved Nico Collins ahead of Pooka in my rankings

849
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 2: because of the Stafford stuff. And it's just frustrating because

850
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:51,320
Speaker 2: it was the right, you know, it's the right process.

851
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 2: It was oh it's just so frustrating, and so I

852
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 2: don't want to be overly concerned about the injury stuff,

853
00:40:56,880 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 2: even though like, yes, it's it's meaningful. But I at times,

854
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 2: because I was overweight on Pooka early, even when his

855
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 2: ADP slid, I was drafting him, but not as much

856
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 2: as I should have probably been drafting him. You know,

857
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,360
Speaker 2: still got him enough, still obviously had a good season.

858
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 2: But another example of that is is Devon a Chan,

859
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:20,279
Speaker 2: right super high on a Chan, and especially after the

860
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 2: the John Newsmith trade over the summer, and then a

861
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 2: Chan has what like a calf injury or something like that,

862
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 2: like really close to the season, and I just basically

863
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:31,359
Speaker 2: stopped drafting him and I drafted you know, I was like, Okay,

864
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:33,759
Speaker 2: I got I got my a Chan. But it's like, how,

865
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 2: how what is the real likelihood of that lingering for

866
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 2: the next two weeks plus, you know, like what are

867
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 2: the real chances of that going down? And then on

868
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 2: the flip side, I think we have to be a

869
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 2: little bit more open mind into the late late dart

870
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:48,800
Speaker 2: throw round picks. The Christian Watsons of the world, who

871
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 2: you know, you can write I mean I wrote him

872
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 2: off completely. I didn't draft a single team with Christian

873
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:58,799
Speaker 2: Watson this year, And I think in hindsight, you know,

874
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 2: you can get burned by this because I like Brandon Ayuk, right,

875
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 2: he didn't do anything this year, he didn't play this year.

876
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,800
Speaker 2: But but when you're talking about a twentieth round pick,

877
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:09,800
Speaker 2: I think that you should be okay with taking a

878
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 2: chance on a player like that, right on a player

879
00:42:12,040 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 2: like especially a big play wide receiver like Christian Watson.

880
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:18,399
Speaker 1: It's really hard to discern when to make those gambles too,

881
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:23,760
Speaker 1: because you would think Niners legit playoff team, double digit

882
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 1: win team, good offense, like that's the type of team

883
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 1: that you kind of want to roll the dice on

884
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 1: a guy coming back later in the season and having

885
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 1: an impact, and then he just doesn't. So yeah, I

886
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 1: think we just have to be okay with the massive

887
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: downside risks sometimes in taking an Ayuk or Watson, especially

888
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 1: in double digit, late double digit rounds. But it's so

889
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: unpredictable that I don't know, I don't know if there's

890
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:50,919
Speaker 1: any like any certainty whatsoever. Like sometimes I.

891
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:53,239
Speaker 2: Agree, I don't want people to walk away from this

892
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 2: and be like, oh, he only was looking at this

893
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 2: in hindsight, because it's very easy to watch, like I

894
00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:59,400
Speaker 2: understand what I just said, Guy, I get it, and

895
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 2: you could be like, how would we ever know that?

896
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 2: I think though, that the difference is number one not

897
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 2: being I don't ever want to be like massively overweight.

898
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 2: But when we are talking about a literal last round pick,

899
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 2: where the hit rates for these guys and giving you

900
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:17,279
Speaker 2: usability is so so slim to begin with, I think

901
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 2: we have to be a little bit more open minded.

902
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 2: Like Brandon Nyuk at some points the season I think

903
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 2: was even a single digit round pick when when when

904
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 2: like news was favorable for him, and then it got yeah,

905
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:27,359
Speaker 2: I got into like the thirteenth and stuff like that.

906
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 2: But even then, like there's some opportunity costs, right, Christian Watson,

907
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:33,239
Speaker 2: there was none. There was nothing, you know, Like I

908
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 2: don't know why I didn't. I just kind of wrote

909
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 2: it off because but we knew that there was there

910
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 2: was a decent chance he would play this year at

911
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 2: least something and get something, you know. So my stance

912
00:43:43,520 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 2: on the injury stuff, if it is a minor injury,

913
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 2: that doesn't seem like a huge deal. Devon a chan right,

914
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 2: Matthew Stafford's could have been major. Right. The thing with

915
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 2: Stafford is less about me not drafting Stafford. I should

916
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 2: have still been okay drafting the other guys because I'm

917
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 2: a believer that the system is good, the players are good.

918
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 2: Jimmy Garoppolo could have still allowed those guys to be

919
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 2: semi relevant in fantasy football. You know. Obviously the outcome

920
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 2: was Matthew Stafford's the MVP of the league, and I

921
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 2: don't think I was prepared for that. But still I

922
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:17,399
Speaker 2: want I want to be more open minded about like

923
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 2: my my real instead of being dismissive about that kind

924
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 2: of thing, because it's really easy to be dismissive about

925
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 2: that kind of thing. And with the late round guys

926
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 2: like a Christian Watson, I definitely want to at least

927
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 2: have like three percent exposure as opposed to none, you know,

928
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 2: with a player like that. And the last thing to

929
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:37,040
Speaker 2: bring up, mix and match draft strategies and approaches. Right,

930
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:41,319
Speaker 2: last year, very very heavy hero RB and zero RB.

931
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 2: This year mixed it up across the board, heavily had

932
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:48,439
Speaker 2: some RB. The team that got that that won twenty

933
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:51,720
Speaker 2: thousand dollars was an RB RB team, which, by the way, guys,

934
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 2: you can go back on YouTube and I oh, I

935
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:56,840
Speaker 2: tweeted it. You can go back in my Twitter account

936
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 2: to find the link. I drafted that team live on YouTube,

937
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 2: that one that got fortieth place in the Millie. So

938
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 2: you can hear my logic around all of it. When

939
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 2: I drafted Derek Henry, I said, let's get weird, and

940
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 2: I got weird, and I drafted Derrick Henry. And then

941
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 2: I when I drafted JSN, I was like, yeah, JSN

942
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:15,439
Speaker 2: seems like the best value. It wasn't like I was like, yeah,

943
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 2: I got JSN. At this point, I was like, no,

944
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 2: this is like the best value on the board. I'm

945
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 2: gonna draft ASN. And then I drafted DJ Moore, who

946
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,320
Speaker 2: I didn't draft a ton of this year as to

947
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 2: bring back for CMC. You can hear the logic going

948
00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 2: through all of it, which might be interesting to some

949
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 2: of you. But I definitely think that mixing draft strategy

950
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:34,279
Speaker 2: and approaches is just unbelievably important in these in these games,

951
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: if you're doing a high volume in a lot of drafts.

952
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 1: I think, at the end of the day, and it

953
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 1: sounds so obvious that not string too far from ADP

954
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 1: generally is the way. This is these best ball tournaments

955
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:53,759
Speaker 1: are the sharpest draft rooms, yeah, on planet Earth. So

956
00:45:55,280 --> 00:46:00,840
Speaker 1: as long as you're putting together coherent rosters with team stacks,

957
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:06,360
Speaker 1: game stacks, and not absolutely straying miles apart from ADP,

958
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 1: Like you can build good teams in this thing, right,

959
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 1: and you don't have to Like you said, you don't

960
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:17,359
Speaker 1: have to be married to only one. I'm only doing

961
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 1: zero RB, I'm only doing early tight end. I'm only

962
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 1: doing early quarterback because that's when you're going to find

963
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:28,560
Speaker 1: yourself taking those half round risks, right, or trying to

964
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 1: force these things as opposed to just kind of letting

965
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 1: ADP play things out because other people are going to

966
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 1: make mistakes too as well in these drafts.

967
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 2: Look, man, you go back to the draft guide every

968
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:39,799
Speaker 2: year that I write with season long, and one of

969
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 2: the consistent themes is always to be reactive to what's

970
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 2: going on in your draft. And I know that it's

971
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 2: like such a simple concept and something that everyone always

972
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 2: talks about, but like it's not just like being like, oh,

973
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 2: this guy got drafted here, and I am recognizing that

974
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:54,280
Speaker 2: this guy's being drafted here. It's no, it's being able

975
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 2: to completely shift your approach in your strategy on the

976
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 2: fly because you've done so many and you've listened to

977
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 2: so many podcasts, you've done so much analysis, and you

978
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 2: understand which player does what and what he's projected to do,

979
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 2: and being able to just react to what the board

980
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:12,319
Speaker 2: is doing, what the board is giving you. Right, those

981
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 2: are the best players in the world. Those are That's

982
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 2: what they do. They don't just say I'm getting Trayvon

983
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:19,320
Speaker 2: Henderson no matter what at the beginning of the third round,

984
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:21,960
Speaker 2: when you know that an outcome can go the way

985
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:24,400
Speaker 2: that it did with Trayvon Henderson, you know. And so

986
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:27,880
Speaker 2: I think that's what this speaks to is that ADP

987
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 2: value still is huge, right, is still one of the

988
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:34,880
Speaker 2: biggest edges that you can you can find in this

989
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 2: game and stack your teams, right, Like, feel free to

990
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:42,319
Speaker 2: stack week seventeen, but most definitely find as many as

991
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 2: many team stacks as you possibly can.

992
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:49,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's uh man, the I don't know why, but

993
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:53,320
Speaker 1: you're talking about draft strategy. There's just a quick draft story.

994
00:47:53,440 --> 00:47:55,319
Speaker 1: My dad has been in an auction league since like

995
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:57,919
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety six. It's a goofy league. The first eight

996
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 1: rounds are auction and then the rest of the draft

997
00:48:00,640 --> 00:48:03,960
Speaker 1: as a linear snake draft. It's a very goofy league,

998
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:06,359
Speaker 1: and I have my own team now, and this year

999
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:10,319
Speaker 1: the auction was it was tough, Like I wanted to

1000
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 1: go there's no flex, it's the goofiest league. So I

1001
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,840
Speaker 1: wanted to go premium tight end because with so few

1002
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 1: starting roster spots, I thought there was some value to

1003
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 1: going Boers or McBride. So I ended up getting McBride.

1004
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 1: And I just got in this tough spot where I

1005
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 1: just had no money to spend and the only two

1006
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 1: receivers left when I had money were JSN and DeVante.

1007
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:36,239
Speaker 1: And it's just like sometimes it just things just you

1008
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 1: don't get anything, and things just fall into place for you.

1009
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,439
Speaker 2: Right. That's why fantasy football is just as much about

1010
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:44,040
Speaker 2: the players that you don't draft as the players that

1011
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 2: you do draft. Right, It's about understanding opportunity costs and

1012
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 2: understanding that your fades are arguably more important than the

1013
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:53,879
Speaker 2: guys that you're actually targeting. And you know, no one

1014
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 2: expected this JSN season, No one expected DeVante Adams to

1015
00:48:57,080 --> 00:48:59,319
Speaker 2: necessarily be their goal line back the way that he

1016
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:03,359
Speaker 2: was right, and and it just it works out that way.

1017
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:06,080
Speaker 2: This is why I talk about variants as much as

1018
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 2: I do, and this is why I say to embrace

1019
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:11,960
Speaker 2: that variance, because as you're embracing it, you're actually getting

1020
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:14,160
Speaker 2: an edge on the rest of your of your league

1021
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:16,319
Speaker 2: mates in the rest of the league, because they're very

1022
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 2: strict with how they're drafting. They're very strict with the

1023
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:20,279
Speaker 2: way that.

1024
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 1: This outcome can't happen. This outcome is going to happen, right,

1025
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:27,800
Speaker 1: Everything is a range.

1026
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:31,399
Speaker 2: It's it's the gray area. Fantasy football goes circles back

1027
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 2: to that stupid episode that everyone hates. Actually, you know

1028
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 2: that they give me crap about when I traded Roman

1029
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 2: Dunsay for Mecca Buca in a in A in a

1030
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 2: back in May. And it's because of the gray area

1031
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:45,400
Speaker 2: thinking of fantasy football that you're able to do that,

1032
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:47,880
Speaker 2: and now you gain value on that, Like there's val

1033
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 2: I know that a Buka finished the season rough, but

1034
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 2: there's value in the dynasty market with having a Buka

1035
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 2: instead of a Donday. It's been a great season, man,

1036
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:57,240
Speaker 2: it was. It was a great year overall. Like I said,

1037
00:49:57,719 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 2: I've got a lot of shows to to start up

1038
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:04,959
Speaker 2: on and to do here in mid It'll start around

1039
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 2: mid January into late January with the things I got wrong,

1040
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 2: things I got right, and then getting into prospect season,

1041
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:13,600
Speaker 2: which I'm very excited about. And like I said, Brandon

1042
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:16,719
Speaker 2: Gadoula actually started today with Late Round Fantasy Football, so

1043
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:20,280
Speaker 2: the newsletter you can subscribe for free lateround dot com.

1044
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:23,240
Speaker 2: He will be helping out with that, writing some sweet

1045
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 2: content and doing some awesome research and Kitchen and I

1046
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 2: are doing the Late Round fantas Football show every week

1047
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 2: still and we will be doing that Wednesdays, I think

1048
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:36,919
Speaker 2: at noon we'll call it noon Eastern on Wednesdays every

1049
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:40,359
Speaker 2: week that will be on YouTube YouTube dot com slash

1050
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:43,720
Speaker 2: at Late ROUNDFF and then it'll find its way over

1051
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 2: to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast feed. But rich

1052
00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 2: of course, I appreciate your time and you doing the

1053
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 2: show with me throughout the summer. And then now let

1054
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 2: everyone know what you're doing and where they can find you.

1055
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 1: I'm at Richie Ryan across Socials at Gridin Gaeble will

1056
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 1: be looking at all the playoff betting lines and then

1057
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 1: make sure instead of doom scrolling bad things on your

1058
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 1: reels or your TikTok and all this madness into your brain,

1059
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 1: follow the Light Round ff because that's where we'll be

1060
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:15,320
Speaker 1: seeing me clipping up all the things that that JJ

1061
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 1: is doing to you. Maybe you listen to the pod

1062
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:20,279
Speaker 1: and you just need a refresher. These clips can can

1063
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 1: get at you and point you in the right direction.

1064
00:51:22,920 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, and look all this like summarizing of the season stuff.

1065
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:27,439
Speaker 2: You know, I talked about it a little bit today

1066
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 2: about like the tight end, dead zone or whatever the

1067
00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:32,239
Speaker 2: case may be. There's gonna be episodes on this. There's

1068
00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:34,360
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot of chatter on this. This is

1069
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 2: just the start of me starting to dig into this

1070
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:40,080
Speaker 2: data and whatnot. I just need a little bit of

1071
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:42,319
Speaker 2: time to get, you know, everything in order, because there's

1072
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 2: a lot of stuff that just happened. It's like I

1073
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 2: was in a tornado and got spit out, and now

1074
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:48,359
Speaker 2: I'm just trying to like feel around and see where

1075
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 2: I'm at. So appreciate all of you guys for following

1076
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 2: along the becoming a Best ball Bro journey. Really hope

1077
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 2: we get to do it again next year or this year.

1078
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,160
Speaker 2: I guess it would be in a few months, only

1079
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 2: like five months until this starts up again. But I

1080
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 2: appreciate all of you guys. It's been an awesome year.

1081
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:05,400
Speaker 2: I hope it was fun for you as well. As always,

1082
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:06,840
Speaker 2: thanks for turning in