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Speaker 2: I mean the New York Post. No fan of President Biden,
Speaker 2: let's be sure now, but this is all over the media.
Speaker 3: I didn't know this.
Speaker 2: The President speaks at a Georgia waffle house following the
Speaker 2: date debate before it's quote, I think we did well.
Speaker 3: Can you Could you see Libby Cantrell in a waffle house?
Speaker 3: I just can't. I can't you.
Speaker 2: In the music business, we used to call it shay
Speaker 2: waff because you know, you're driving down on Nashville and
Speaker 2: it's the only thing open.
Speaker 3: At three am doing a road trip.
Speaker 1: Maybe have you ever.
Speaker 3: Been to a waffle house? I had cracker barrel looked
Speaker 3: like you know, Danielle, I'm sixty. You've never been to
Speaker 3: a waff louse? Joining us?
Speaker 2: Now? The queen of the waffless Lebby Cantrell joined us.
Speaker 2: Some pink quote, Libby, have you ever darked at the
Speaker 2: door of a waffle house?
Speaker 4: A waffle I love twelve you know, a midnight waffle.
Speaker 5: Cheese?
Speaker 6: I mean, come on, you know, and that's in that
Speaker 6: synthetic butter.
Speaker 3: It's just too much. Libby.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining us after the history
Speaker 2: made last night, I.
Speaker 3: Got eight ways to go here.
Speaker 2: But let's stay with your public policy, which means the
Speaker 2: legislative branch. How does Capitol Hillary act we witnessed last night?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there is definitely the reports of a
Speaker 4: collective freak out to use a more technical term, the
Speaker 4: collective bed wedding are are correct. I think folks who
Speaker 4: are on the ballot, particularly those who are in vulnerable
Speaker 4: Senate races, who are in House races that you know,
Speaker 4: of course, Democrats control the Senate by one vote. How
Speaker 4: the Democrats are hoping to flip the House Republicans controlled
Speaker 4: by a very small margin, and I think those folks
Speaker 4: are very concerned this morning.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 4: Interestingly, as you know, they've been actually outperforming on polls,
Speaker 4: so there has been a big gap between those candidates
Speaker 4: in Biden. But I think they are very concerned that
Speaker 4: Biden will be a headwind to both re election into
Speaker 4: into their aspirations of flipping.
Speaker 2: In your world, you're surrounded by people that won't shut up.
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if you know this, but
Speaker 2: they have this surveillance cork where it's Tucker, you know,
Speaker 2: Scarlet can put in my mouth time shut up.
Speaker 3: In your world, nobody stops talking.
Speaker 2: Was President Trump advantaged last night because he didn't.
Speaker 3: Have a mic on a lot so he had to stop?
Speaker 5: I think that.
Speaker 4: I think the format absolutely favored President Trump. I think
Speaker 4: so ironically they were the Biden world thought that not
Speaker 4: having an audience being able to mute the mics would
Speaker 4: be a detriment to President Trump, but if anything, he
Speaker 4: seemed more controlled, more moderated. Now, how both how both
Speaker 4: candidates characterize each other's presidencies were just not correct. There
Speaker 4: were a lot of falsehoods I think on Zay honestly,
Speaker 4: on both sides. But but you know, the reality is
Speaker 4: that President Biden did not fact check President Trump.
Speaker 7: Uh.
Speaker 4: And of course the broader issue here is that he
Speaker 4: just underscored all of the concerns about about his age
Speaker 4: and and President Trump, on the other hand, looked energetic,
Speaker 4: he was confident, and he was very much on his
Speaker 4: talking points. He talked a lot about immigration, he talked
Speaker 4: a lot about inflation. I think from a market's perspective,
Speaker 4: we didn't hear anything about deficit restraint.
Speaker 7: Uh.
Speaker 4: You know, I think if any thing, both gentlemen really
Speaker 4: reinforced the importance of Medicare and social Security. There was
Speaker 4: no really whiff of reform. President Biden talked a little
Speaker 4: bit about it, and we they talked about tariffs, and
Speaker 4: so I think the big themes for the markets, you know,
Speaker 4: higher deficits and more tariffs, more hawkishness on China. Those
Speaker 4: are I think, if if you're trading in front of
Speaker 4: your screen this morning, those are kind of the big takeaway.
Speaker 3: John does that here a talkers doing? You know, mean.
Speaker 4: Stocks here these trading, But those are those I think
Speaker 4: are the big takeaways. Obviously, the chances of President Trump
Speaker 4: being re elected are higher this morning than they were yesterday.
Speaker 1: I think after yesterday's debate, it's clear that style over
Speaker 1: substance was the big takeaway from the proceedings of ninety minutes.
Speaker 1: I guess the question now is how does the White
Speaker 1: House regain control of the narrative versus how do Democrats
Speaker 1: as a party regain control of the narrative.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think there is no really indication from Biden
Speaker 4: will released the campaign world that there is a problem.
Speaker 4: I do think that, you know, it sounds like from
Speaker 4: from you know what, folks are saying that internally in
Speaker 4: the White House there are concerns. I think it's called
Speaker 4: the broader question is even though folks are talking about
Speaker 4: an open convention or replacing President Biden, the only person
Speaker 4: who can make that decision is Biden himself. We are
Speaker 4: not in the nineteen sixties, right, This is not in
Speaker 4: nineteen sixty This is not nineteen sixty eight where you
Speaker 4: had party elders in the back room smoking cigars after
Speaker 4: the testing. And I we keep reinforcing that to clients.
Speaker 4: Is that just the party mechanics are so different from
Speaker 4: those days. It's a really only President Biden can make
Speaker 4: the decision on whether he is going to continue to
Speaker 4: be on the ticket, and this is his decision alone.
Speaker 2: With PIMCO and particularly with the a leons on the
Speaker 2: continent of Europe. You've always had an international feel foreign Affairs,
Speaker 2: and I give Foreign Affairs great credit. They had two
Speaker 2: Biden Trump foreign analysis within the latest issue, and the
Speaker 2: democratic side, of course was done by Ben Rhoades. Who
Speaker 2: else Ben Rhodes last night on Twitter? Just think about
Speaker 2: what that debate looked like to people and leaders around
Speaker 2: the world. Libya, how you mentioned this earlier? Scarlett? How
Speaker 2: will this be taken particularly by Beijing? Nick Burns has
Speaker 2: to deal with Beijing over there.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, and I actually, by the way, that
Speaker 4: Foreign Affairs article Ben Rhod's article is very interesting. Robert
Speaker 4: O'Brien's article in that in that latest issue, I would say,
Speaker 4: if you're interested in what a Trump two point zero
Speaker 4: foreign policy will look like, that is worth a read
Speaker 4: because he sort of lays out the roadmap for foreign policy.
Speaker 8: You know this.
Speaker 4: Of course President Biden is on the way a candidate.
Speaker 4: He is the president of the United States, and so
Speaker 4: I think it's what what signal did he send both
Speaker 4: our allies but also to China. Well, you know, he
Speaker 4: you know, he did not, of course, restore any confidence
Speaker 4: that he can manage for more years, let alone night
Speaker 4: next ninety minutes. So I think it, you know, it
Speaker 4: really undermined. You know, I think I don't I don't
Speaker 4: want I don't want to. I don't want to be
Speaker 4: hyperbolic here. We don't want to over extrapolate from one debate.
Speaker 4: But again it reinforced.
Speaker 2: Okay, cume to the So what do you tell Jerome
Speaker 2: Schneider today he's in short term paper. What's the market
Speaker 2: effect for Jerome Schneider at PIMCO that.
Speaker 3: You see in Washington.
Speaker 4: Well, again, I think that the big takeaway from last
Speaker 4: night is that deficits are going to continue to go
Speaker 4: up because neither candidate is going to reform the entitlements.
Speaker 4: They may not be able to spend a lot more,
Speaker 4: but they're not going to do anything about our structural
Speaker 4: deficit issue. And again, tariffs are likely to go up.
Speaker 4: I thought the interesting conversation around tariffs was that President
Speaker 4: Trump was not defensive of his tariff plan. He was
Speaker 4: leaning into it. He was talking about how it wasn't
Speaker 4: going to increase inflation, how it was a good thing
Speaker 4: for the United States, both from national security person and
Speaker 4: an economic perspective. He talked about deficit reduction in terms
Speaker 4: of tariffs. So I think the big takeaway Tom is
Speaker 4: and this is true. If Biden's elected too, deficits are
Speaker 4: going up and likely we're having more hawkish relationship with
Speaker 4: China and tariffs are.
Speaker 2: Going to Let me thank you, Libby ConTroll with Public
Speaker 2: Policy and PIMCO here after this historic debate.
Speaker 3: The first smart.
Speaker 2: Note last evening was from Terrence Haynes. He's with Pangaea policy.
Speaker 2: He's been doing this forever. You know, he was prepared.
Speaker 2: But the bottom line is Terry Haynes absolutely nailed it
Speaker 2: last night with perspective over what we saw Skyletfu and
Speaker 2: Tom Key Now with Terry Haines. Terry, I'm not going
Speaker 2: to mince words off your note. I'm going to pick
Speaker 2: a couple ideas here as I can.
Speaker 3: Others.
Speaker 2: The Democrats, particularly alike, nervous for next week until the
Speaker 2: polling consequences fully shake out. How low will the polling be,
Speaker 2: how will they adjust after President Biden's performance.
Speaker 6: Well, you know, I don't think the polling is gonna
Speaker 6: change a great deal over the next ten days. That
Speaker 6: is instinct on my part. But compare this Biden to
Speaker 6: three points. Biden is at you know, roughly forty two
Speaker 6: percent right now, he and Trump are tied. Thirty three
Speaker 6: percent of those surveyed in the CNN Flash post debate
Speaker 6: poll thought Biden won the debate. And you know, there's
Speaker 6: a bunch of different snark we could respond to it,
Speaker 6: but they you know, but there's third of those not
Speaker 6: too far off the two percent thought that he won.
Speaker 6: So I think what you're probably going to get is
Speaker 6: some sort of a dip. But you know, short attention
Speaker 6: span theater here is going to move on to Trump, immunity,
Speaker 6: Trump and you know, Trump sentencing conventions, all kinds of
Speaker 6: other things. Meanwhile, Biden's got a lot of time to
Speaker 6: try to correct the ship, and Democrats have nowhere to
Speaker 6: go on this. Frankly, Okay, well that's.
Speaker 3: A really important distinction. Now.
Speaker 2: The zeitgeist this morning is they do have a place
Speaker 2: to go. Why can't they go to a president who
Speaker 2: decides with his family to in some form not run
Speaker 2: for a second term. And there's seven or eight other
Speaker 2: people that can make this look like Grover Cleveland Alexander
Speaker 2: in eighteen eighty, Why can't they do that?
Speaker 6: That was Grover Cleveland, not Grover Cleveland.
Speaker 3: Excuse me, sorry.
Speaker 6: Anyway, But the point is really twofold. One is that
Speaker 6: Biden's got a tight grip on the party. Secondly, you know,
Speaker 6: a lot of the party's been enabling and pockets of
Speaker 6: the media as well. Not this not this network, but
Speaker 6: pockets in the media have been enabling Democrats, particularly corporate
Speaker 6: Democrats in Washington, trying to ignore this as best they can.
Speaker 6: You know, now the reckoning is here. You know, the
Speaker 6: last thing I think they will do is make a
Speaker 6: snap decision to jett us and the sitting president off
Speaker 6: the ticket. And the sitting president will resist that with
Speaker 6: every fiber, and he's being He's been after this for
Speaker 6: fifty years. So you know, reality will set in and
Speaker 6: the plan B will be you know, how do we
Speaker 6: how do we prop this up and move forward?
Speaker 3: Let me bring in Scarlet foo in for plus wing
Speaker 3: this one.
Speaker 1: Scarlett Terry. We know a lot of Americans don't like
Speaker 1: the candidates running for president in November and they want
Speaker 1: someone else. Does the debate boost any third party candidates?
Speaker 6: You know, I don't think it does, Scarlett, And you know,
Speaker 6: there's a huge disparity and a lot of things related
Speaker 6: to this election. One is the appetite for a third
Speaker 6: party candidate compared with the actual third party candidates. You know,
Speaker 6: I thought at one point, probably back in January or
Speaker 6: so February, that Bob Kennedy had a pretty decent shot
Speaker 6: at becoming a serious candidate. He's decided to turn himself
Speaker 6: into a niche candidate, and his numbers reflect that the
Speaker 6: air is slowly being let out of the balloon and
Speaker 6: will continue to I think, continue in that direction. The
Speaker 6: other thing I want to point out to you, it's
Speaker 6: implied in your question, is you know, where do people go?
Speaker 6: If this was any other Republican other than Trump, you'd
Speaker 6: see wholesale flight from Biden to that Republican candidate. I
Speaker 6: think polling shows continues to show though that even though
Speaker 6: people are kind of marginal on Biden, they don't want
Speaker 6: to go to Trump. There's no such thing as a
Speaker 6: somewhat disapproves of Trump. It's all strong disapproval. So you know,
Speaker 6: these people are in a bit of a quandary, which
Speaker 6: you know, in a backhanded way, works in Biden's favor.
Speaker 3: I think.
Speaker 1: Okay, so that's how it stands with voters. What about
Speaker 1: our allies, our rivals in the global theater as Democrats
Speaker 1: wait for polls to come out, and you said it'll
Speaker 1: be a couple of days. How does Europe, how does
Speaker 1: China prepare to think about what might happen in November?
Speaker 6: Well, you know, I've been banging the drama on this
Speaker 6: for nine months to a year. I think, you know,
Speaker 6: we've got the highest geopolitical risk in over fifty years already.
Speaker 6: So you know, the net of last night's debate is
Speaker 6: that it's negative for for geopolitical risk and it's negative
Speaker 6: for US domestic political risk as well. You know, our
Speaker 6: ally or excuse me, rfos already feel somewhat emboldened. That's
Speaker 6: a whole other conversation as to why. But they do,
Speaker 6: and you know, allies now officially you're probably going to
Speaker 6: be a little bit more disquieted.
Speaker 2: I'm trying to avoid the you know, the twenty four
Speaker 2: hour culture or cable TV talk Terry, But I got
Speaker 2: to go to a single sentence of your brilliant note
Speaker 2: from last night. So the first thing I read, folks
Speaker 2: last night, coming office tobacco. You said of the President
Speaker 2: of the United States, sometimes over prepped and was without
Speaker 2: humor a sin for an Irish American politician.
Speaker 3: This was no JFK last night. I get it. But
Speaker 3: the over prepped I think is brilliant. Terry.
Speaker 2: His first answer, I was thunderstruck by the fectoidness of it.
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, I think so. The you know, I heard
Speaker 6: that a bunch in the debate where you know you
Speaker 6: could almost see the you know, you can almost hear
Speaker 6: the click, and you know, like you know, this is
Speaker 6: the spiel that works, and you know with with polsters
Speaker 6: and fact gatherers, and you know this is my answer,
Speaker 6: you know, kaboom. And of course that that you know,
Speaker 6: that's a double sided sword too, because you did that
Speaker 6: whole medicare daff happens when when he forgets the line
Speaker 6: and the transition. So you know, Biden's coin throughout his
Speaker 6: career has been affability and relatability, and neither showed up
Speaker 6: last night, and that's unfortunate for him.
Speaker 2: Terry Haynes, thank you so much, and for all of
Speaker 2: us at Bloomberg, thank you for your perspective across many
Speaker 2: conversations in the past twenty four hours.
Speaker 3: Mister Haynes is with pen Geez. I know he'll be
Speaker 3: here in July fifth.
Speaker 2: And that is Neil Dutta is all of you know,
Speaker 2: I thought you did a phenomenal job in twenty twenty
Speaker 2: three of being optimistic, Neil Data of Renaissance Redmac. I
Speaker 2: should say, are you still optimistic about the American economic experiment?
Speaker 5: I mean, my optimism is getting a little bit shaken
Speaker 5: because I think the Fed is, you know, on the
Speaker 5: wrong side of the eight ball here. You know, their rhetoric,
Speaker 5: I think doesn't really match the tone of the incoming
Speaker 5: economic information that we're seeing. You know, they're going around
Speaker 5: telling people that the economy is strong. Over the first
Speaker 5: five months of this year, real consumption is growing below
Speaker 5: one percent. New home sales we just learned are running
Speaker 5: at their lowest levels since last November. Ending home sales
Speaker 5: are at fresh record lows, and over the last six months,
Speaker 5: core capital goods orders and shipments are basically flat. And
Speaker 5: I think the reason that matters is because one of
Speaker 5: the things the Hawks have been saying is that financial conditions.
Speaker 8: Are too easy.
Speaker 5: They're too easy, so the FED can't cut if financial
Speaker 5: conditions are so so loose, Why is it that you
Speaker 5: know things that you'd expect to respond to the sort
Speaker 5: of standard financial accelerator model, like housing, like business investment.
Speaker 8: They're flat on their back.
Speaker 5: So either you're looking at the wrong financial stress variable.
Speaker 8: You know. Maybe it's things like loan.
Speaker 5: Rates for for private households more so than corporate credit spreads.
Speaker 5: Maybe it's the strong dollar. Maybe it's just high interest
Speaker 5: rates generally.
Speaker 3: I look more so the equity.
Speaker 5: Prices that that really is what we should be focused on.
Speaker 5: Scar is Scarlet, by the way, Tom, I haven't talked
Speaker 5: to Scarlett, I feel like in so long, so it's
Speaker 5: good to hear her.
Speaker 3: To hear you know.
Speaker 2: I mean, she's she's like doing the twenty four hour
Speaker 2: shift today.
Speaker 3: But the don is with his kids in the afternoon.
Speaker 3: He's like, forget about Scarlet. Neil dota with scar Good
Speaker 3: morning all Neil.
Speaker 1: Let me ask you about the core PC and just
Speaker 1: dig into it a little bit more because it's slowing down.
Speaker 1: The games are slowing down in large part because oil
Speaker 1: prices have come down, and I know we're talking about
Speaker 1: core versus non core, but in any case, and declining
Speaker 1: goods prices, but services which does include things like home
Speaker 1: insurance or auto insurance that remains sticky. I got the
Speaker 1: bill for my home insurance. It was stunning, and when
Speaker 1: I asked the broker to look into other policy premiums,
Speaker 1: couldn't find anything better. So I was stuck with it.
Speaker 1: And we're not talking about two point six percent increase.
Speaker 1: We're talking about twenty percent.
Speaker 6: Of your house price has gone up, So it's a wash.
Speaker 3: Oh, John, I don't think I had to cut.
Speaker 2: The dogs back from Fancy Hills dog food to some
Speaker 2: you know, cheap costco.
Speaker 3: Thing you guys are because of the insurance continue scarlet.
Speaker 1: So me, you'll talk a little bit more about the
Speaker 1: services inflation that we're seeing and the stickiness there and
Speaker 1: whether we're not paying enough attention to.
Speaker 5: Well, I think we're paying too much attention to it,
Speaker 5: quite frankly, because this is being used as a rationale
Speaker 5: for sort of holding off on rate cuts, and frankly,
Speaker 5: I think what's interesting is that we can say why
Speaker 5: core services inflation has been strong, but I think it's
Speaker 5: more challenging to lay out a coherent rationale for why
Speaker 5: it will stay strong. One of the reasons why we
Speaker 5: look at core services is because of the labor market sensitivity.
Speaker 5: If you look at unit labor costs over the last year,
Speaker 5: they've been growing less than one percent at an annual rate.
Speaker 5: So where's the inflation coming from. You talk about insurance costs,
Speaker 5: and it's true that insurance costs have gone up, but
Speaker 5: it's also true that the underlying value of the asset
Speaker 5: you're ensuring is not rising as rapidly as it once was,
Speaker 5: whether that be housing or more importantly, autos. Right, auto
Speaker 5: adjacent services, things like motor vehicle insurance, maintenance and repair costs,
Speaker 5: those have right, those are for disinflationary pressure because the
Speaker 5: value of the car is declining.
Speaker 8: I mean, if we look.
Speaker 5: At wholesale auction prices for use vehicles, it looks like
Speaker 5: used car prices will continue.
Speaker 8: Deflating over the summer.
Speaker 5: We already know that new car prices are done about
Speaker 5: a percent last year. So I think it's just important
Speaker 5: to kind of think about first principles and what do
Speaker 5: we know? People are talking about how we're done with
Speaker 5: the disinflation and goods with the dollar breaking out to
Speaker 5: your to date highs, So how does that work? I mean,
Speaker 5: most of what we import our consumer goods.
Speaker 2: So anyway, well, Neil dunnah with us, and we're going
Speaker 2: to continue with mister Dota Gino Martin Adams with us
Speaker 2: as well. We are commercial free for you in this
Speaker 2: eight o'clock our lots going on future stabilize up eighteen
Speaker 2: and out to up twenty four now back to up eighteen,
Speaker 2: mark the up nineteen right now, SMB futures, NaSTA c
Speaker 2: cup half a percent is as well.
Speaker 3: Neil Donta.
Speaker 2: We just had an economist on talking about sub two
Speaker 2: percent real GDP for six months Q one Q two.
Speaker 2: Do you buy into that that the American economy is
Speaker 2: that moldy.
Speaker 5: I mean, you could talk me into something like that.
Speaker 5: I mean, we had sub one and a half percent
Speaker 5: growth in the first quarter. I do think that, you know,
Speaker 5: it looks like Q two is running about two and
Speaker 5: a half and you know, so you average that out,
Speaker 5: you're talking about a round two percent for the first
Speaker 5: half of the year. I think what's important is that
Speaker 5: private domestic demand is clearly slowing. I mean, one of
Speaker 5: the reasons why there was a little bit of enthusiasm
Speaker 5: in the first quarter is because we had such a
Speaker 5: strong private domestic demand backdrop in Q one.
Speaker 8: But remember that a lot of that was premised on.
Speaker 5: A sixty basis point increase in residential investment which we
Speaker 5: know is not going to repeat in Q two and
Speaker 5: probably not in Q three.
Speaker 8: And so again I.
Speaker 5: Think, you know, housing was a steady tailwin for GDP
Speaker 5: growth over the last several quarters. That's unlikely to be
Speaker 5: the case through the summer. So private domestic demand will
Speaker 5: look as strong. And we had, you know, a big
Speaker 5: we're having a big inventory restocking right now in the
Speaker 5: second quarter, but with orders still kind of slungish, it's
Speaker 5: hard to see how long that inventory boost lasts. And
Speaker 5: that's going to ultimately win on manufacturing. So yeah, I mean,
Speaker 5: I think you really have to have quite an imagination
Speaker 5: to say that we're running at two and a half percent.
Speaker 8: I think, you know, maybe one and a half percent.
Speaker 5: That's possible for a quarter, but two percent, I think
Speaker 5: is sort of where I'm too.
Speaker 3: Do you hear this from meal data? Is extraordinary?
Speaker 2: I mean, I get this in the Gloom Crew, But
Speaker 2: mister Dudda is not the gloom Crew.
Speaker 1: No, He's been the opposite of that. You know, I
Speaker 1: think about how last summer we got this unexpected lift
Speaker 1: from spending on going on vacation, Taylor Swift concerts. Is
Speaker 1: there anything on the horizon Meal in which you see
Speaker 1: Americans would be more willing to spend freely on.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 5: You know, Scarlett, I don't think about consumption like that.
Speaker 5: I mean, if it wasn't Taylor Swift, maybe you'd have
Speaker 5: more people at the Beyonce Renaissance tour.
Speaker 8: I mean, I think people go out and they want.
Speaker 5: To spend money, you know, based on what their real
Speaker 5: disposable incomes are doing. And fortunately the last month was
Speaker 5: a good month for real disposable income. But generally speaking,
Speaker 5: what we know is that labor market dynamics are consistent
Speaker 5: with the cooling off of income growth, and that's going
Speaker 5: to weigh on consumer spending over time.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 5: The good news is is that inflation should slow, so
Speaker 5: that should kind of keep real incomes on a steady
Speaker 5: you know, steady here. And that's why I'm you know,
Speaker 5: I'm not really lighting my hair on fire over recession risk. Well,
Speaker 5: what I'm talking about really is just a recalibration of
Speaker 5: monetary policy. No one's talking about a wholesale easing. I
Speaker 5: don't think the economy requires that, but the Fed does
Speaker 5: have a role to play. They have to play along here.
Speaker 5: I mean, they can't just keep saying, you know, the
Speaker 5: economy is strong. We don't have to do anything when
Speaker 5: Evedence is showing something else. So I think they just
Speaker 5: need to set their rhetoric to the inc data and
Speaker 5: will be okay.
Speaker 3: Neil Dotta, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: With renmac just can't say enough about his at work
Speaker 2: here clearly more cautious than what we saw last that year.
Speaker 3: As welcome.
Speaker 2: The real world, folks of Bloomberg Surveillance is twenty people,
Speaker 2: well now twenty three. We got three interns helping us
Speaker 2: out piecing the show together. It depends you know what time.
Speaker 2: And of course, with the shock of the debate, literally
Speaker 2: during the debate, our team went to leadership of Sparta
Speaker 2: was blowing up the show and.
Speaker 3: The real world folks.
Speaker 2: As I sit on a leather couch in my living
Speaker 2: room and Bill's sitting there on my lap, and you know,
Speaker 2: I'm hanging out with a cell phone. And the first
Speaker 2: email I said was get Henrietta. And there is only
Speaker 2: one Henrietta. She has the sharpest note of you know,
Speaker 2: with Terry Ynes. Henrietta Trey's joining us from Veda Partners.
Speaker 2: It will be ugly, it must be fast, and in
Speaker 2: your list of people to save the day, Henrietta Trey's
Speaker 2: You have one of my favorite people, the governor of
Speaker 2: Rhode Island, Gina Ramando, the former Secretary of Commerce. How
Speaker 2: can Gina Ramando or others save the day for the
Speaker 2: Democratic Party?
Speaker 9: Well, thank you for that very generous info intro, Tom,
Speaker 9: I appreciate it. I was really kind of surprised last
Speaker 9: night as I was speaking with Democratic staff throughout the evening,
Speaker 9: Gina Raymondo's name came up in every single conversation repeatedly.
Speaker 9: Whether that was campaign operative sort of in the think tanks,
Speaker 9: whether that was folks on the hill, people who've worked
Speaker 9: on campaigns, she was perpetually there, and I think it
Speaker 9: speaks to exactly what you get at Commerce. Secretary of
Speaker 9: Ramondo is highly competent. She has been tasked with probably
Speaker 9: the largest job the Biden administration this year, which is
Speaker 9: rolling out the combination of the Chips Bill and the
Speaker 9: five Artisan Infrastructure Act, not all at the same time,
Speaker 9: but through building out a two hundred person team at
Speaker 9: Commerce to get all this across the country. And that
Speaker 9: is no small task. That's what she's undertaken. And I
Speaker 9: think there's a lot of respect for her within the
Speaker 9: Democratic Party. Maybe like a slightly under the radar possibility.
Speaker 3: You are expert at the machinery.
Speaker 2: If the president says I'm going to not resign, let's
Speaker 2: be clear on that, folks, but just step aside who
Speaker 2: decides who becomes their candidate.
Speaker 9: I think the person that everyone should be watching right
Speaker 9: now is House Representative Jim Cliburn. I mean he is
Speaker 9: the one who orchestrated the win for Biden in South Carolina.
Speaker 9: If y'all remember that primary schedule, I mean Biden was
Speaker 9: down and out for a while. Bernie Sanders was the
Speaker 9: front runner in all the betting markets for a while,
Speaker 9: and Joe Biden really needed Jim Cliburn in South Carolina
Speaker 9: to pull it out for him. In One of the
Speaker 9: contingencies was that Kamala Harris needed to be the vice president.
Speaker 9: He plays king maker in the party, and I would
Speaker 9: encourage folks to watch him most closely in the hours ahead.
Speaker 1: That is super valuable to keep an eye on Cliburn.
Speaker 1: Investors and companies know Gino Rimando because of her role
Speaker 1: in all that important legislation at effects economies, affects the markets,
Speaker 1: but voters don't. Voters know Kamala Harris. So if something
Speaker 1: happens and Biden steps aside. Wouldn' Kamala Harris be kind
Speaker 1: of the default presidential candidate?
Speaker 9: Absolutely, no question, And I appreciate you mentioning that, because
Speaker 9: I think a lot of the street washes over her
Speaker 9: and sort of immediately steps into a Gavin Newsom or
Speaker 9: a Gretchen Whitmer type candidate, and I think that's a mistake.
Speaker 7: Kamala Harris is the sitting Vice president. She is the
Speaker 7: ranking female official in American history.
Speaker 9: She is highly confident herself and has served as a
Speaker 9: United States senator attorney general in California. There's no reason
Speaker 9: to skip over her, and I think it would be
Speaker 9: a massive affront to huge population of the American public
Speaker 9: and the Democratic voting base if they were to supersede
Speaker 9: her sort of unceremoniously. This is going to be, at
Speaker 9: this point a party line decision. The primary season is over,
Speaker 9: so for the most part, Democratic voters and people who
Speaker 9: are in the individual states that participate in primaries and caucuses,
Speaker 9: they are not going to have a say.
Speaker 7: Now this is a party decision.
Speaker 9: It's my opinion that Kamala has to be the front runner.
Speaker 9: She is the front runner behind Biden should he step down,
Speaker 9: and it would be incumbent upon her to decide whether
Speaker 9: or not she wanted to actively bow out to seed
Speaker 9: room to someone else. If that's a decision she wants
Speaker 9: to make. I think she's next in line, and it
Speaker 9: would be, as I said, incumbent upon her to say,
Speaker 9: you know what, I'm going to step aside with the
Speaker 9: entirety of the ticket. If Biden's out, I'm out and
Speaker 9: sort of clear the way from the other four people
Speaker 9: I list in my note this morning.
Speaker 1: So the punditry is clear in terms of calling yesterday's
Speaker 1: debate a disaster for President Biden? Is the Democratic Party
Speaker 1: un in understanding the debacle that was the debate? Are
Speaker 1: they united that something needs to be done?
Speaker 9: I mean, I would say my cell phone was a
Speaker 9: death march of Democrats last night, And the kindest thing
Speaker 9: I could say about that is that they were united
Speaker 9: in that assessment. I don't think you can talk to
Speaker 9: any Democrat right now who would tell you that last
Speaker 9: night went well or that the biggest problem with Biden's
Speaker 9: age is not you know, the age itself.
Speaker 7: It's not the number.
Speaker 9: It's the fact that Donald Trump lied, you know, thirty
Speaker 9: plus times repeatedly on every issue from January sixth to abortion,
Speaker 9: and because of Biden's age, he could not combat those
Speaker 9: lies in real time.
Speaker 7: That's the problem.
Speaker 3: Okay, So what's the timeline here? The Scarlett's good question.
Speaker 2: I mean my answer is, and talking to Margaret Brennan
Speaker 2: was CBS, there's a timeline which is collegial oh Chicago,
Speaker 2: oh ow, August will come back from summer. The third
Speaker 2: week is September. Blowney, what's the Tenriant Tray's timeline for
Speaker 2: Friday afternoon, Saturday, the Sunday talk shows and you get
Speaker 2: the Monday. Is anybody talking a shorter timeline Henriette Trace?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 7: Absolutely. One of my favorite people in the world.
Speaker 9: Kevin Casey will shout out my mentor when I was
Speaker 9: on the Ways and Means Committee. I'm working with him
Speaker 9: on the Ways of Means Comittee. The first thing to
Speaker 9: think about is that Democrats feel like they have a
Speaker 9: little bit of breathing room. There is a moment here
Speaker 9: where Trump versus the United States is going to be
Speaker 9: decided by the Supreme Court. We're going to find out
Speaker 9: if the claims of presidential immunity are going to hold
Speaker 9: or not. That could come as early as today, within
Speaker 9: the next couple hours. That is something that immediately gives
Speaker 9: Democrats a sense of a little.
Speaker 7: Bit of breathing room. On July eleventh, Donald Trump.
Speaker 9: Is going to be sentenced for the thirty fourth felony
Speaker 9: guilty counts that he received in the Hush Monday trial
Speaker 9: about election interference with the porn star in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 9: Then you'll have the announcement of Donald Trump's running me
Speaker 9: the vice president. So there's gonna be other pieces taking
Speaker 9: up oxygen for the next couple of days. The Democrats
Speaker 9: are really hoping will clear some of the air and
Speaker 9: give them room to sort of breathe and work behind
Speaker 9: the scenes. I don't expect a solution or a conclusion
Speaker 9: to the will. He won't be stepped by question anytime soon.
Speaker 3: Henry, let me.
Speaker 2: Get Henriette, let me get this in because we're going
Speaker 2: to go to Rick Davis on this in a moment.
Speaker 3: Folks, stay with us through the far. This is going
Speaker 3: to be special.
Speaker 2: But I mean, if we ever really tested the twenty
Speaker 2: fifth Amendment before on succession and disability of a president.
Speaker 7: Not really.
Speaker 9: And it's interesting you bring that up. I think there's
Speaker 9: a lot of confusion about this on the street. I've
Speaker 9: been marketing the last couple of weeks, and I spent
Speaker 9: a lot of time walking through how you know, it's
Speaker 9: actually not a constitutional crisis to have the vice president
Speaker 9: step in and take place for the president. That is
Speaker 9: literally what the Constitution instructs us to do. Then you
Speaker 9: go to the Speaker of the House, and so on
Speaker 9: and so forth. So it's an issue of relay and
Speaker 9: sort of socializing the American public. So sort of what
Speaker 9: happens next. The good news for Democrats here is that
Speaker 9: sixty six percent of the population already wants somebody other
Speaker 9: than Biden and somebody other than Trump to be on
Speaker 9: the ticket. So if it's going to happen, this is,
Speaker 9: oddly enough, kind of the best way. It's been speculated
Speaker 9: about all year. You can see it from the predictive markets.
Speaker 9: There has been at least twenty percent odds that Biden
Speaker 9: would not be the nominee. I think that's much higher
Speaker 9: this morning. I haven't checked, but I assume it's about
Speaker 9: forty percent, and that is going to give you a
Speaker 9: baseline to start with on these sort of otherwise wildly
Speaker 9: extreme circumstances that are pretty normalized this year. A lot
Speaker 9: of the American public is socialized to the fact that
Speaker 9: this might happen.
Speaker 7: Certainly, the investment community is.
Speaker 2: Henrietta just fabulous. Thank you so much. Henrietta Tres with
Speaker 2: us with Veda Partners. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast,
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