1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Scarlet for 11 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 2: I mean the New York Post. No fan of President Biden, 12 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 2: let's be sure now, but this is all over the media. 13 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:53,199 Speaker 3: I didn't know this. 14 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 2: The President speaks at a Georgia waffle house following the 15 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 2: date debate before it's quote, I think we did well. 16 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 3: Can you Could you see Libby Cantrell in a waffle house? 17 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 3: I just can't. I can't you. 18 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 2: In the music business, we used to call it shay 19 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 2: waff because you know, you're driving down on Nashville and 20 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 2: it's the only thing open. 21 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:15,559 Speaker 3: At three am doing a road trip. 22 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 1: Maybe have you ever. 23 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,680 Speaker 3: Been to a waffle house? I had cracker barrel looked 24 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 3: like you know, Danielle, I'm sixty. You've never been to 25 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 3: a waff louse? Joining us? 26 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 2: Now? The queen of the waffless Lebby Cantrell joined us. 27 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 2: Some pink quote, Libby, have you ever darked at the 28 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 2: door of a waffle house? 29 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 4: A waffle I love twelve you know, a midnight waffle. 30 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 5: Cheese? 31 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 6: I mean, come on, you know, and that's in that 32 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 6: synthetic butter. 33 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 3: It's just too much. Libby. 34 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining us after the history 35 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 2: made last night, I. 36 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 3: Got eight ways to go here. 37 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 2: But let's stay with your public policy, which means the 38 00:01:55,680 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 2: legislative branch. How does Capitol Hillary act we witnessed last night? 39 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there is definitely the reports of a 40 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 4: collective freak out to use a more technical term, the 41 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 4: collective bed wedding are are correct. I think folks who 42 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:15,920 Speaker 4: are on the ballot, particularly those who are in vulnerable 43 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 4: Senate races, who are in House races that you know, 44 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 4: of course, Democrats control the Senate by one vote. How 45 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 4: the Democrats are hoping to flip the House Republicans controlled 46 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 4: by a very small margin, and I think those folks 47 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 4: are very concerned this morning. 48 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:30,799 Speaker 2: Now. 49 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 4: Interestingly, as you know, they've been actually outperforming on polls, 50 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 4: so there has been a big gap between those candidates 51 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 4: in Biden. But I think they are very concerned that 52 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:42,919 Speaker 4: Biden will be a headwind to both re election into 53 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 4: into their aspirations of flipping. 54 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 2: In your world, you're surrounded by people that won't shut up. 55 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if you know this, but 56 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 2: they have this surveillance cork where it's Tucker, you know, 57 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 2: Scarlet can put in my mouth time shut up. 58 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 3: In your world, nobody stops talking. 59 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:02,399 Speaker 2: Was President Trump advantaged last night because he didn't. 60 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 3: Have a mic on a lot so he had to stop? 61 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 5: I think that. 62 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 4: I think the format absolutely favored President Trump. I think 63 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 4: so ironically they were the Biden world thought that not 64 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 4: having an audience being able to mute the mics would 65 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 4: be a detriment to President Trump, but if anything, he 66 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 4: seemed more controlled, more moderated. Now, how both how both 67 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 4: candidates characterize each other's presidencies were just not correct. There 68 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 4: were a lot of falsehoods I think on Zay honestly, 69 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 4: on both sides. But but you know, the reality is 70 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 4: that President Biden did not fact check President Trump. 71 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 7: Uh. 72 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 4: And of course the broader issue here is that he 73 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 4: just underscored all of the concerns about about his age 74 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 4: and and President Trump, on the other hand, looked energetic, 75 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 4: he was confident, and he was very much on his 76 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 4: talking points. He talked a lot about immigration, he talked 77 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 4: a lot about inflation. I think from a market's perspective, 78 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 4: we didn't hear anything about deficit restraint. 79 00:03:58,440 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 7: Uh. 80 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 4: You know, I think if any thing, both gentlemen really 81 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 4: reinforced the importance of Medicare and social Security. There was 82 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,080 Speaker 4: no really whiff of reform. President Biden talked a little 83 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 4: bit about it, and we they talked about tariffs, and 84 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 4: so I think the big themes for the markets, you know, 85 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 4: higher deficits and more tariffs, more hawkishness on China. Those 86 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 4: are I think, if if you're trading in front of 87 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 4: your screen this morning, those are kind of the big takeaway. 88 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 3: John does that here a talkers doing? You know, mean. 89 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 4: Stocks here these trading, But those are those I think 90 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,479 Speaker 4: are the big takeaways. Obviously, the chances of President Trump 91 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 4: being re elected are higher this morning than they were yesterday. 92 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: I think after yesterday's debate, it's clear that style over 93 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 1: substance was the big takeaway from the proceedings of ninety minutes. 94 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: I guess the question now is how does the White 95 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 1: House regain control of the narrative versus how do Democrats 96 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 1: as a party regain control of the narrative. 97 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think there is no really indication from Biden 98 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 4: will released the campaign world that there is a problem. 99 00:04:57,279 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 4: I do think that, you know, it sounds like from 100 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 4: from you know what, folks are saying that internally in 101 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 4: the White House there are concerns. I think it's called 102 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 4: the broader question is even though folks are talking about 103 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 4: an open convention or replacing President Biden, the only person 104 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 4: who can make that decision is Biden himself. We are 105 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,040 Speaker 4: not in the nineteen sixties, right, This is not in 106 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 4: nineteen sixty This is not nineteen sixty eight where you 107 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 4: had party elders in the back room smoking cigars after 108 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 4: the testing. And I we keep reinforcing that to clients. 109 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 4: Is that just the party mechanics are so different from 110 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 4: those days. It's a really only President Biden can make 111 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,039 Speaker 4: the decision on whether he is going to continue to 112 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 4: be on the ticket, and this is his decision alone. 113 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 2: With PIMCO and particularly with the a leons on the 114 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 2: continent of Europe. You've always had an international feel foreign Affairs, 115 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 2: and I give Foreign Affairs great credit. They had two 116 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:55,599 Speaker 2: Biden Trump foreign analysis within the latest issue, and the 117 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 2: democratic side, of course was done by Ben Rhoades. Who 118 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 2: else Ben Rhodes last night on Twitter? Just think about 119 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 2: what that debate looked like to people and leaders around 120 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 2: the world. Libya, how you mentioned this earlier? Scarlett? How 121 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 2: will this be taken particularly by Beijing? Nick Burns has 122 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:15,599 Speaker 2: to deal with Beijing over there. 123 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, and I actually, by the way, that 124 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 4: Foreign Affairs article Ben Rhod's article is very interesting. Robert 125 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 4: O'Brien's article in that in that latest issue, I would say, 126 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,280 Speaker 4: if you're interested in what a Trump two point zero 127 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 4: foreign policy will look like, that is worth a read 128 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:32,159 Speaker 4: because he sort of lays out the roadmap for foreign policy. 129 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 8: You know this. 130 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 4: Of course President Biden is on the way a candidate. 131 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 4: He is the president of the United States, and so 132 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 4: I think it's what what signal did he send both 133 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 4: our allies but also to China. Well, you know, he 134 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 4: you know, he did not, of course, restore any confidence 135 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 4: that he can manage for more years, let alone night 136 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 4: next ninety minutes. So I think it, you know, it 137 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 4: really undermined. You know, I think I don't I don't 138 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 4: want I don't want to. I don't want to be 139 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 4: hyperbolic here. We don't want to over extrapolate from one debate. 140 00:06:58,120 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 4: But again it reinforced. 141 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 2: Okay, cume to the So what do you tell Jerome 142 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 2: Schneider today he's in short term paper. What's the market 143 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,919 Speaker 2: effect for Jerome Schneider at PIMCO that. 144 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 3: You see in Washington. 145 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 4: Well, again, I think that the big takeaway from last 146 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 4: night is that deficits are going to continue to go 147 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 4: up because neither candidate is going to reform the entitlements. 148 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 4: They may not be able to spend a lot more, 149 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 4: but they're not going to do anything about our structural 150 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 4: deficit issue. And again, tariffs are likely to go up. 151 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 4: I thought the interesting conversation around tariffs was that President 152 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 4: Trump was not defensive of his tariff plan. He was 153 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 4: leaning into it. He was talking about how it wasn't 154 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 4: going to increase inflation, how it was a good thing 155 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 4: for the United States, both from national security person and 156 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 4: an economic perspective. He talked about deficit reduction in terms 157 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 4: of tariffs. So I think the big takeaway Tom is 158 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 4: and this is true. If Biden's elected too, deficits are 159 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 4: going up and likely we're having more hawkish relationship with 160 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 4: China and tariffs are. 161 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 2: Going to Let me thank you, Libby ConTroll with Public 162 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 2: Policy and PIMCO here after this historic debate. 163 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 3: The first smart. 164 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 2: Note last evening was from Terrence Haynes. He's with Pangaea policy. 165 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 2: He's been doing this forever. You know, he was prepared. 166 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 2: But the bottom line is Terry Haynes absolutely nailed it 167 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 2: last night with perspective over what we saw Skyletfu and 168 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 2: Tom Key Now with Terry Haines. Terry, I'm not going 169 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 2: to mince words off your note. I'm going to pick 170 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 2: a couple ideas here as I can. 171 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:42,439 Speaker 3: Others. 172 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:46,680 Speaker 2: The Democrats, particularly alike, nervous for next week until the 173 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 2: polling consequences fully shake out. How low will the polling be, 174 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 2: how will they adjust after President Biden's performance. 175 00:08:57,280 --> 00:08:59,679 Speaker 6: Well, you know, I don't think the polling is gonna 176 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 6: change a great deal over the next ten days. That 177 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 6: is instinct on my part. But compare this Biden to 178 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 6: three points. Biden is at you know, roughly forty two 179 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:12,440 Speaker 6: percent right now, he and Trump are tied. Thirty three 180 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 6: percent of those surveyed in the CNN Flash post debate 181 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 6: poll thought Biden won the debate. And you know, there's 182 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 6: a bunch of different snark we could respond to it, 183 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 6: but they you know, but there's third of those not 184 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 6: too far off the two percent thought that he won. 185 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 6: So I think what you're probably going to get is 186 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 6: some sort of a dip. But you know, short attention 187 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 6: span theater here is going to move on to Trump, immunity, 188 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 6: Trump and you know, Trump sentencing conventions, all kinds of 189 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 6: other things. Meanwhile, Biden's got a lot of time to 190 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,599 Speaker 6: try to correct the ship, and Democrats have nowhere to 191 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 6: go on this. Frankly, Okay, well that's. 192 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 3: A really important distinction. Now. 193 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 2: The zeitgeist this morning is they do have a place 194 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 2: to go. Why can't they go to a president who 195 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 2: decides with his family to in some form not run 196 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 2: for a second term. And there's seven or eight other 197 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 2: people that can make this look like Grover Cleveland Alexander 198 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:09,959 Speaker 2: in eighteen eighty, Why can't they do that? 199 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 6: That was Grover Cleveland, not Grover Cleveland. 200 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 3: Excuse me, sorry. 201 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 6: Anyway, But the point is really twofold. One is that 202 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 6: Biden's got a tight grip on the party. Secondly, you know, 203 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 6: a lot of the party's been enabling and pockets of 204 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 6: the media as well. Not this not this network, but 205 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 6: pockets in the media have been enabling Democrats, particularly corporate 206 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 6: Democrats in Washington, trying to ignore this as best they can. 207 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 6: You know, now the reckoning is here. You know, the 208 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 6: last thing I think they will do is make a 209 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 6: snap decision to jett us and the sitting president off 210 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 6: the ticket. And the sitting president will resist that with 211 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 6: every fiber, and he's being He's been after this for 212 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 6: fifty years. So you know, reality will set in and 213 00:10:57,080 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 6: the plan B will be you know, how do we 214 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 6: how do we prop this up and move forward? 215 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 3: Let me bring in Scarlet foo in for plus wing 216 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 3: this one. 217 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 1: Scarlett Terry. We know a lot of Americans don't like 218 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:12,440 Speaker 1: the candidates running for president in November and they want 219 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 1: someone else. Does the debate boost any third party candidates? 220 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 6: You know, I don't think it does, Scarlett, And you know, 221 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 6: there's a huge disparity and a lot of things related 222 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 6: to this election. One is the appetite for a third 223 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 6: party candidate compared with the actual third party candidates. You know, 224 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:35,079 Speaker 6: I thought at one point, probably back in January or 225 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 6: so February, that Bob Kennedy had a pretty decent shot 226 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:42,199 Speaker 6: at becoming a serious candidate. He's decided to turn himself 227 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 6: into a niche candidate, and his numbers reflect that the 228 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 6: air is slowly being let out of the balloon and 229 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 6: will continue to I think, continue in that direction. The 230 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,199 Speaker 6: other thing I want to point out to you, it's 231 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 6: implied in your question, is you know, where do people go? 232 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 6: If this was any other Republican other than Trump, you'd 233 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:06,680 Speaker 6: see wholesale flight from Biden to that Republican candidate. I 234 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 6: think polling shows continues to show though that even though 235 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 6: people are kind of marginal on Biden, they don't want 236 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 6: to go to Trump. There's no such thing as a 237 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 6: somewhat disapproves of Trump. It's all strong disapproval. So you know, 238 00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 6: these people are in a bit of a quandary, which 239 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 6: you know, in a backhanded way, works in Biden's favor. 240 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 3: I think. 241 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: Okay, so that's how it stands with voters. What about 242 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: our allies, our rivals in the global theater as Democrats 243 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 1: wait for polls to come out, and you said it'll 244 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,960 Speaker 1: be a couple of days. How does Europe, how does 245 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:44,319 Speaker 1: China prepare to think about what might happen in November? 246 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 6: Well, you know, I've been banging the drama on this 247 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 6: for nine months to a year. I think, you know, 248 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:55,479 Speaker 6: we've got the highest geopolitical risk in over fifty years already. 249 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 6: So you know, the net of last night's debate is 250 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 6: that it's negative for for geopolitical risk and it's negative 251 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:07,679 Speaker 6: for US domestic political risk as well. You know, our 252 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:11,679 Speaker 6: ally or excuse me, rfos already feel somewhat emboldened. That's 253 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 6: a whole other conversation as to why. But they do, 254 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 6: and you know, allies now officially you're probably going to 255 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 6: be a little bit more disquieted. 256 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 2: I'm trying to avoid the you know, the twenty four 257 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:27,760 Speaker 2: hour culture or cable TV talk Terry, But I got 258 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 2: to go to a single sentence of your brilliant note 259 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 2: from last night. So the first thing I read, folks 260 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 2: last night, coming office tobacco. You said of the President 261 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 2: of the United States, sometimes over prepped and was without 262 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 2: humor a sin for an Irish American politician. 263 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 3: This was no JFK last night. I get it. But 264 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 3: the over prepped I think is brilliant. Terry. 265 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:57,560 Speaker 2: His first answer, I was thunderstruck by the fectoidness of it. 266 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:01,959 Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, I think so. The you know, I heard 267 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,439 Speaker 6: that a bunch in the debate where you know you 268 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 6: could almost see the you know, you can almost hear 269 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 6: the click, and you know, like you know, this is 270 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 6: the spiel that works, and you know with with polsters 271 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 6: and fact gatherers, and you know this is my answer, 272 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 6: you know, kaboom. And of course that that you know, 273 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 6: that's a double sided sword too, because you did that 274 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 6: whole medicare daff happens when when he forgets the line 275 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 6: and the transition. So you know, Biden's coin throughout his 276 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 6: career has been affability and relatability, and neither showed up 277 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 6: last night, and that's unfortunate for him. 278 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 2: Terry Haynes, thank you so much, and for all of 279 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,160 Speaker 2: us at Bloomberg, thank you for your perspective across many 280 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 2: conversations in the past twenty four hours. 281 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 3: Mister Haynes is with pen Geez. I know he'll be 282 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 3: here in July fifth. 283 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 2: And that is Neil Dutta is all of you know, 284 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 2: I thought you did a phenomenal job in twenty twenty 285 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 2: three of being optimistic, Neil Data of Renaissance Redmac. I 286 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 2: should say, are you still optimistic about the American economic experiment? 287 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 5: I mean, my optimism is getting a little bit shaken 288 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 5: because I think the Fed is, you know, on the 289 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 5: wrong side of the eight ball here. You know, their rhetoric, 290 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 5: I think doesn't really match the tone of the incoming 291 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 5: economic information that we're seeing. You know, they're going around 292 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 5: telling people that the economy is strong. Over the first 293 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 5: five months of this year, real consumption is growing below 294 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 5: one percent. New home sales we just learned are running 295 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 5: at their lowest levels since last November. Ending home sales 296 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 5: are at fresh record lows, and over the last six months, 297 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 5: core capital goods orders and shipments are basically flat. And 298 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,800 Speaker 5: I think the reason that matters is because one of 299 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 5: the things the Hawks have been saying is that financial conditions. 300 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 8: Are too easy. 301 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 5: They're too easy, so the FED can't cut if financial 302 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 5: conditions are so so loose, Why is it that you 303 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 5: know things that you'd expect to respond to the sort 304 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 5: of standard financial accelerator model, like housing, like business investment. 305 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 8: They're flat on their back. 306 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 5: So either you're looking at the wrong financial stress variable. 307 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 8: You know. Maybe it's things like loan. 308 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 5: Rates for for private households more so than corporate credit spreads. 309 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 5: Maybe it's the strong dollar. Maybe it's just high interest 310 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 5: rates generally. 311 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 3: I look more so the equity. 312 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 5: Prices that that really is what we should be focused on. 313 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 5: Scar is Scarlet, by the way, Tom, I haven't talked 314 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 5: to Scarlett, I feel like in so long, so it's 315 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 5: good to hear her. 316 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 3: To hear you know. 317 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 2: I mean, she's she's like doing the twenty four hour 318 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 2: shift today. 319 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 3: But the don is with his kids in the afternoon. 320 00:16:56,360 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 3: He's like, forget about Scarlet. Neil dota with scar Good 321 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 3: morning all Neil. 322 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,159 Speaker 1: Let me ask you about the core PC and just 323 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 1: dig into it a little bit more because it's slowing down. 324 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 1: The games are slowing down in large part because oil 325 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: prices have come down, and I know we're talking about 326 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,920 Speaker 1: core versus non core, but in any case, and declining 327 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 1: goods prices, but services which does include things like home 328 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 1: insurance or auto insurance that remains sticky. I got the 329 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 1: bill for my home insurance. It was stunning, and when 330 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:29,120 Speaker 1: I asked the broker to look into other policy premiums, 331 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: couldn't find anything better. So I was stuck with it. 332 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 1: And we're not talking about two point six percent increase. 333 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: We're talking about twenty percent. 334 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 6: Of your house price has gone up, So it's a wash. 335 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 3: Oh, John, I don't think I had to cut. 336 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:46,880 Speaker 2: The dogs back from Fancy Hills dog food to some 337 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 2: you know, cheap costco. 338 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,440 Speaker 3: Thing you guys are because of the insurance continue scarlet. 339 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:53,439 Speaker 1: So me, you'll talk a little bit more about the 340 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: services inflation that we're seeing and the stickiness there and 341 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,040 Speaker 1: whether we're not paying enough attention to. 342 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,159 Speaker 5: Well, I think we're paying too much attention to it, 343 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,120 Speaker 5: quite frankly, because this is being used as a rationale 344 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 5: for sort of holding off on rate cuts, and frankly, 345 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 5: I think what's interesting is that we can say why 346 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 5: core services inflation has been strong, but I think it's 347 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 5: more challenging to lay out a coherent rationale for why 348 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,719 Speaker 5: it will stay strong. One of the reasons why we 349 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 5: look at core services is because of the labor market sensitivity. 350 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 5: If you look at unit labor costs over the last year, 351 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 5: they've been growing less than one percent at an annual rate. 352 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 5: So where's the inflation coming from. You talk about insurance costs, 353 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,199 Speaker 5: and it's true that insurance costs have gone up, but 354 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 5: it's also true that the underlying value of the asset 355 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,480 Speaker 5: you're ensuring is not rising as rapidly as it once was, 356 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 5: whether that be housing or more importantly, autos. Right, auto 357 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 5: adjacent services, things like motor vehicle insurance, maintenance and repair costs, 358 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 5: those have right, those are for disinflationary pressure because the 359 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 5: value of the car is declining. 360 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 8: I mean, if we look. 361 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,919 Speaker 5: At wholesale auction prices for use vehicles, it looks like 362 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:11,399 Speaker 5: used car prices will continue. 363 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 8: Deflating over the summer. 364 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:14,400 Speaker 5: We already know that new car prices are done about 365 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,479 Speaker 5: a percent last year. So I think it's just important 366 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 5: to kind of think about first principles and what do 367 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 5: we know? People are talking about how we're done with 368 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 5: the disinflation and goods with the dollar breaking out to 369 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 5: your to date highs, So how does that work? I mean, 370 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 5: most of what we import our consumer goods. 371 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 2: So anyway, well, Neil dunnah with us, and we're going 372 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 2: to continue with mister Dota Gino Martin Adams with us 373 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 2: as well. We are commercial free for you in this 374 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:43,120 Speaker 2: eight o'clock our lots going on future stabilize up eighteen 375 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 2: and out to up twenty four now back to up eighteen, 376 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:50,399 Speaker 2: mark the up nineteen right now, SMB futures, NaSTA c 377 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 2: cup half a percent is as well. 378 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 3: Neil Donta. 379 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,160 Speaker 2: We just had an economist on talking about sub two 380 00:19:56,200 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 2: percent real GDP for six months Q one Q two. 381 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 2: Do you buy into that that the American economy is 382 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 2: that moldy. 383 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 5: I mean, you could talk me into something like that. 384 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,159 Speaker 5: I mean, we had sub one and a half percent 385 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:15,960 Speaker 5: growth in the first quarter. I do think that, you know, 386 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 5: it looks like Q two is running about two and 387 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,679 Speaker 5: a half and you know, so you average that out, 388 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,399 Speaker 5: you're talking about a round two percent for the first 389 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 5: half of the year. I think what's important is that 390 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 5: private domestic demand is clearly slowing. I mean, one of 391 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,919 Speaker 5: the reasons why there was a little bit of enthusiasm 392 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 5: in the first quarter is because we had such a 393 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 5: strong private domestic demand backdrop in Q one. 394 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:42,880 Speaker 8: But remember that a lot of that was premised on. 395 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 5: A sixty basis point increase in residential investment which we 396 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 5: know is not going to repeat in Q two and 397 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:50,440 Speaker 5: probably not in Q three. 398 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 8: And so again I. 399 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 5: Think, you know, housing was a steady tailwin for GDP 400 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,480 Speaker 5: growth over the last several quarters. That's unlikely to be 401 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 5: the case through the summer. So private domestic demand will 402 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 5: look as strong. And we had, you know, a big 403 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 5: we're having a big inventory restocking right now in the 404 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 5: second quarter, but with orders still kind of slungish, it's 405 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:13,159 Speaker 5: hard to see how long that inventory boost lasts. And 406 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 5: that's going to ultimately win on manufacturing. So yeah, I mean, 407 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 5: I think you really have to have quite an imagination 408 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 5: to say that we're running at two and a half percent. 409 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 8: I think, you know, maybe one and a half percent. 410 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 5: That's possible for a quarter, but two percent, I think 411 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 5: is sort of where I'm too. 412 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 3: Do you hear this from meal data? Is extraordinary? 413 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:34,119 Speaker 2: I mean, I get this in the Gloom Crew, But 414 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 2: mister Dudda is not the gloom Crew. 415 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 1: No, He's been the opposite of that. You know, I 416 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 1: think about how last summer we got this unexpected lift 417 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 1: from spending on going on vacation, Taylor Swift concerts. Is 418 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 1: there anything on the horizon Meal in which you see 419 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,440 Speaker 1: Americans would be more willing to spend freely on. 420 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 2: You know. 421 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 5: You know, Scarlett, I don't think about consumption like that. 422 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,879 Speaker 5: I mean, if it wasn't Taylor Swift, maybe you'd have 423 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:02,880 Speaker 5: more people at the Beyonce Renaissance tour. 424 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 8: I mean, I think people go out and they want. 425 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 5: To spend money, you know, based on what their real 426 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 5: disposable incomes are doing. And fortunately the last month was 427 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 5: a good month for real disposable income. But generally speaking, 428 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:18,520 Speaker 5: what we know is that labor market dynamics are consistent 429 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 5: with the cooling off of income growth, and that's going 430 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 5: to weigh on consumer spending over time. 431 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 3: You know. 432 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 5: The good news is is that inflation should slow, so 433 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 5: that should kind of keep real incomes on a steady 434 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 5: you know, steady here. And that's why I'm you know, 435 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 5: I'm not really lighting my hair on fire over recession risk. Well, 436 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:39,159 Speaker 5: what I'm talking about really is just a recalibration of 437 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 5: monetary policy. No one's talking about a wholesale easing. I 438 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:46,640 Speaker 5: don't think the economy requires that, but the Fed does 439 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 5: have a role to play. They have to play along here. 440 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:52,720 Speaker 5: I mean, they can't just keep saying, you know, the 441 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:54,920 Speaker 5: economy is strong. We don't have to do anything when 442 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 5: Evedence is showing something else. So I think they just 443 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,679 Speaker 5: need to set their rhetoric to the inc data and 444 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 5: will be okay. 445 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:03,200 Speaker 3: Neil Dotta, thank you so much. 446 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,440 Speaker 2: With renmac just can't say enough about his at work 447 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:10,160 Speaker 2: here clearly more cautious than what we saw last that year. 448 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 3: As welcome. 449 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:25,439 Speaker 2: The real world, folks of Bloomberg Surveillance is twenty people, 450 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,919 Speaker 2: well now twenty three. We got three interns helping us 451 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 2: out piecing the show together. It depends you know what time. 452 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 2: And of course, with the shock of the debate, literally 453 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 2: during the debate, our team went to leadership of Sparta 454 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,120 Speaker 2: was blowing up the show and. 455 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 3: The real world folks. 456 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 2: As I sit on a leather couch in my living 457 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,439 Speaker 2: room and Bill's sitting there on my lap, and you know, 458 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 2: I'm hanging out with a cell phone. And the first 459 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 2: email I said was get Henrietta. And there is only 460 00:23:55,160 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 2: one Henrietta. She has the sharpest note of you know, 461 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 2: with Terry Ynes. Henrietta Trey's joining us from Veda Partners. 462 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 2: It will be ugly, it must be fast, and in 463 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:13,479 Speaker 2: your list of people to save the day, Henrietta Trey's 464 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,359 Speaker 2: You have one of my favorite people, the governor of 465 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 2: Rhode Island, Gina Ramando, the former Secretary of Commerce. How 466 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 2: can Gina Ramando or others save the day for the 467 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:26,359 Speaker 2: Democratic Party? 468 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 9: Well, thank you for that very generous info intro, Tom, 469 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 9: I appreciate it. I was really kind of surprised last 470 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,479 Speaker 9: night as I was speaking with Democratic staff throughout the evening, 471 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 9: Gina Raymondo's name came up in every single conversation repeatedly. 472 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,879 Speaker 9: Whether that was campaign operative sort of in the think tanks, 473 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 9: whether that was folks on the hill, people who've worked 474 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 9: on campaigns, she was perpetually there, and I think it 475 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:53,920 Speaker 9: speaks to exactly what you get at Commerce. Secretary of 476 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 9: Ramondo is highly competent. She has been tasked with probably 477 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 9: the largest job the Biden administration this year, which is 478 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 9: rolling out the combination of the Chips Bill and the 479 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 9: five Artisan Infrastructure Act, not all at the same time, 480 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,359 Speaker 9: but through building out a two hundred person team at 481 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,199 Speaker 9: Commerce to get all this across the country. And that 482 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,480 Speaker 9: is no small task. That's what she's undertaken. And I 483 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 9: think there's a lot of respect for her within the 484 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:25,040 Speaker 9: Democratic Party. Maybe like a slightly under the radar possibility. 485 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 3: You are expert at the machinery. 486 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 2: If the president says I'm going to not resign, let's 487 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 2: be clear on that, folks, but just step aside who 488 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 2: decides who becomes their candidate. 489 00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,120 Speaker 9: I think the person that everyone should be watching right 490 00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:45,240 Speaker 9: now is House Representative Jim Cliburn. I mean he is 491 00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 9: the one who orchestrated the win for Biden in South Carolina. 492 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,639 Speaker 9: If y'all remember that primary schedule, I mean Biden was 493 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,159 Speaker 9: down and out for a while. Bernie Sanders was the 494 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,880 Speaker 9: front runner in all the betting markets for a while, 495 00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,880 Speaker 9: and Joe Biden really needed Jim Cliburn in South Carolina 496 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:02,119 Speaker 9: to pull it out for him. In One of the 497 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,880 Speaker 9: contingencies was that Kamala Harris needed to be the vice president. 498 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,200 Speaker 9: He plays king maker in the party, and I would 499 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 9: encourage folks to watch him most closely in the hours ahead. 500 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 1: That is super valuable to keep an eye on Cliburn. 501 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,720 Speaker 1: Investors and companies know Gino Rimando because of her role 502 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,800 Speaker 1: in all that important legislation at effects economies, affects the markets, 503 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 1: but voters don't. Voters know Kamala Harris. So if something 504 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 1: happens and Biden steps aside. Wouldn' Kamala Harris be kind 505 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,160 Speaker 1: of the default presidential candidate? 506 00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:39,479 Speaker 9: Absolutely, no question, And I appreciate you mentioning that, because 507 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,760 Speaker 9: I think a lot of the street washes over her 508 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 9: and sort of immediately steps into a Gavin Newsom or 509 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 9: a Gretchen Whitmer type candidate, and I think that's a mistake. 510 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:51,600 Speaker 7: Kamala Harris is the sitting Vice president. She is the 511 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,719 Speaker 7: ranking female official in American history. 512 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,800 Speaker 9: She is highly confident herself and has served as a 513 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 9: United States senator attorney general in California. There's no reason 514 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,199 Speaker 9: to skip over her, and I think it would be 515 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 9: a massive affront to huge population of the American public 516 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 9: and the Democratic voting base if they were to supersede 517 00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,359 Speaker 9: her sort of unceremoniously. This is going to be, at 518 00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 9: this point a party line decision. The primary season is over, 519 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 9: so for the most part, Democratic voters and people who 520 00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,720 Speaker 9: are in the individual states that participate in primaries and caucuses, 521 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:24,680 Speaker 9: they are not going to have a say. 522 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 7: Now this is a party decision. 523 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,719 Speaker 9: It's my opinion that Kamala has to be the front runner. 524 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,360 Speaker 9: She is the front runner behind Biden should he step down, 525 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,200 Speaker 9: and it would be incumbent upon her to decide whether 526 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 9: or not she wanted to actively bow out to seed 527 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,400 Speaker 9: room to someone else. If that's a decision she wants 528 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,639 Speaker 9: to make. I think she's next in line, and it 529 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 9: would be, as I said, incumbent upon her to say, 530 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:46,919 Speaker 9: you know what, I'm going to step aside with the 531 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,479 Speaker 9: entirety of the ticket. If Biden's out, I'm out and 532 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 9: sort of clear the way from the other four people 533 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:52,320 Speaker 9: I list in my note this morning. 534 00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,640 Speaker 1: So the punditry is clear in terms of calling yesterday's 535 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,880 Speaker 1: debate a disaster for President Biden? Is the Democratic Party 536 00:27:59,920 --> 00:28:03,399 Speaker 1: un in understanding the debacle that was the debate? Are 537 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 1: they united that something needs to be done? 538 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:08,679 Speaker 9: I mean, I would say my cell phone was a 539 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,800 Speaker 9: death march of Democrats last night, And the kindest thing 540 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,160 Speaker 9: I could say about that is that they were united 541 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,639 Speaker 9: in that assessment. I don't think you can talk to 542 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 9: any Democrat right now who would tell you that last 543 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 9: night went well or that the biggest problem with Biden's 544 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:26,719 Speaker 9: age is not you know, the age itself. 545 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:27,480 Speaker 7: It's not the number. 546 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 9: It's the fact that Donald Trump lied, you know, thirty 547 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 9: plus times repeatedly on every issue from January sixth to abortion, 548 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 9: and because of Biden's age, he could not combat those 549 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 9: lies in real time. 550 00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:40,480 Speaker 7: That's the problem. 551 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 3: Okay, So what's the timeline here? The Scarlett's good question. 552 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 2: I mean my answer is, and talking to Margaret Brennan 553 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 2: was CBS, there's a timeline which is collegial oh Chicago, 554 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:56,560 Speaker 2: oh ow, August will come back from summer. The third 555 00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 2: week is September. Blowney, what's the Tenriant Tray's timeline for 556 00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:07,560 Speaker 2: Friday afternoon, Saturday, the Sunday talk shows and you get 557 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,680 Speaker 2: the Monday. Is anybody talking a shorter timeline Henriette Trace? 558 00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 3: Yes? 559 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 7: Absolutely. One of my favorite people in the world. 560 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,080 Speaker 9: Kevin Casey will shout out my mentor when I was 561 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 9: on the Ways and Means Committee. I'm working with him 562 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,160 Speaker 9: on the Ways of Means Comittee. The first thing to 563 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 9: think about is that Democrats feel like they have a 564 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,400 Speaker 9: little bit of breathing room. There is a moment here 565 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 9: where Trump versus the United States is going to be 566 00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,800 Speaker 9: decided by the Supreme Court. We're going to find out 567 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,560 Speaker 9: if the claims of presidential immunity are going to hold 568 00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 9: or not. That could come as early as today, within 569 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,680 Speaker 9: the next couple hours. That is something that immediately gives 570 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,120 Speaker 9: Democrats a sense of a little. 571 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,880 Speaker 7: Bit of breathing room. On July eleventh, Donald Trump. 572 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,000 Speaker 9: Is going to be sentenced for the thirty fourth felony 573 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 9: guilty counts that he received in the Hush Monday trial 574 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:57,000 Speaker 9: about election interference with the porn star in twenty sixteen. 575 00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 9: Then you'll have the announcement of Donald Trump's running me 576 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 9: the vice president. So there's gonna be other pieces taking 577 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,280 Speaker 9: up oxygen for the next couple of days. The Democrats 578 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,360 Speaker 9: are really hoping will clear some of the air and 579 00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 9: give them room to sort of breathe and work behind 580 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 9: the scenes. I don't expect a solution or a conclusion 581 00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 9: to the will. He won't be stepped by question anytime soon. 582 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 3: Henry, let me. 583 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 2: Get Henriette, let me get this in because we're going 584 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:21,680 Speaker 2: to go to Rick Davis on this in a moment. 585 00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 3: Folks, stay with us through the far. This is going 586 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:24,600 Speaker 3: to be special. 587 00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,280 Speaker 2: But I mean, if we ever really tested the twenty 588 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 2: fifth Amendment before on succession and disability of a president. 589 00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 7: Not really. 590 00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 9: And it's interesting you bring that up. I think there's 591 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:40,920 Speaker 9: a lot of confusion about this on the street. I've 592 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 9: been marketing the last couple of weeks, and I spent 593 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,200 Speaker 9: a lot of time walking through how you know, it's 594 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,040 Speaker 9: actually not a constitutional crisis to have the vice president 595 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,640 Speaker 9: step in and take place for the president. That is 596 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,120 Speaker 9: literally what the Constitution instructs us to do. Then you 597 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:55,480 Speaker 9: go to the Speaker of the House, and so on 598 00:30:55,520 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 9: and so forth. So it's an issue of relay and 599 00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 9: sort of socializing the American public. So sort of what 600 00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 9: happens next. The good news for Democrats here is that 601 00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,960 Speaker 9: sixty six percent of the population already wants somebody other 602 00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 9: than Biden and somebody other than Trump to be on 603 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:13,800 Speaker 9: the ticket. So if it's going to happen, this is, 604 00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 9: oddly enough, kind of the best way. It's been speculated 605 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,120 Speaker 9: about all year. You can see it from the predictive markets. 606 00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:21,760 Speaker 9: There has been at least twenty percent odds that Biden 607 00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 9: would not be the nominee. I think that's much higher 608 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 9: this morning. I haven't checked, but I assume it's about 609 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 9: forty percent, and that is going to give you a 610 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 9: baseline to start with on these sort of otherwise wildly 611 00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,200 Speaker 9: extreme circumstances that are pretty normalized this year. A lot 612 00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:39,120 Speaker 9: of the American public is socialized to the fact that 613 00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 9: this might happen. 614 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 7: Certainly, the investment community is. 615 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:45,880 Speaker 2: Henrietta just fabulous. Thank you so much. Henrietta Tres with 616 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 2: us with Veda Partners. 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