1
00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:08,360
Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh, Rio to Washington,

2
00:00:08,440 --> 00:00:12,520
Speaker 1: d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg Well under It, to

3
00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:16,480
Speaker 1: San Francisco, Bloomberg nine issue to the country US at

4
00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:19,400
Speaker 1: the General one, nine ten, and around the globe the

5
00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:23,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio Plus app and Boomberg Dot Gone. This is

6
00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,599
Speaker 1: taking stock. I'm Caffeine Hayes. Along with pim Fox. Brexit,

7
00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:32,000
Speaker 1: the UK's departure from the European Union has created great

8
00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:35,479
Speaker 1: concern at the Bank of England amongst some of England's

9
00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,360
Speaker 1: top the U case I should say top business leaders,

10
00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,159
Speaker 1: and certainly even in Europe and the United States. So

11
00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,800
Speaker 1: why did retail sales pim jump the most into two

12
00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:48,760
Speaker 1: thousand two in the UK last month. We're gonna find

13
00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:52,720
Speaker 1: out if Brexit is becoming brex ain't brex at all? Right,

14
00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:54,760
Speaker 1: well done, We're gonna have to find out more about

15
00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:57,800
Speaker 1: the UK economy and its relationship to the Brexit vote.

16
00:00:57,840 --> 00:00:59,920
Speaker 1: At first, let's go to Charlie Pellet in the Bloomberg

17
00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,360
Speaker 1: is from for Bloomberg Business Flat and I thank you,

18
00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:04,880
Speaker 1: pim Fox, thank you Kathleen Hayes. And we are brought

19
00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:07,640
Speaker 1: to you by E t F Exchange sixteen b n

20
00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:12,160
Speaker 1: y Melon's annual E t F Symposium September nine to

21
00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:16,440
Speaker 1: the twenty one in Dana Point, California. This essential conference

22
00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:20,120
Speaker 1: is complementary for r I A S, but space is limited.

23
00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,400
Speaker 1: Register now at b n y melon dot com slash

24
00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:27,720
Speaker 1: e t F. An update for equities. Stocks have been fluctuating,

25
00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:29,959
Speaker 1: but with twenty nine minutes to go ahead of the close,

26
00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,880
Speaker 1: the Dow, the SMP, and NEZTAC all advancing at least

27
00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:38,240
Speaker 1: right now. Walmart increasing its annual earnings forecast after second

28
00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:42,280
Speaker 1: quarter results topped analysts estimates. Assigned the world's largest retailer

29
00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,679
Speaker 1: is pulling business away from rivals such as Target. Walmart

30
00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,160
Speaker 1: shares are up one point six percent. Company also provided

31
00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:52,440
Speaker 1: an update on online sales. As we hear from Bloomberg's

32
00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:55,880
Speaker 1: Shannon Petty Peace, they just spent three point three billion

33
00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,240
Speaker 1: dollars for Jet last quarter, which surprised a lot of

34
00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:02,320
Speaker 1: people considering jetsas one year old online startup um But

35
00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:05,600
Speaker 1: this quarter online sales look good. They were up about

36
00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:08,840
Speaker 1: twelve percent. Uh They've been in single digits in the

37
00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:12,240
Speaker 1: quarters before then, so a sign that maybe things are improving.

38
00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:16,040
Speaker 1: Their sales at Walmart open more than twelve months rose

39
00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:19,640
Speaker 1: one point six percent last quarter, which end at July one.

40
00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:24,240
Speaker 1: United Commental Holding CEO Oscar Munio's making significant appointments to

41
00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,520
Speaker 1: his management team, filling a chief financial officer position that

42
00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,880
Speaker 1: have been vacant for a year and replacing a longtime

43
00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,560
Speaker 1: chief revenue officer. Gold up nine dollars, gaining seven tenths

44
00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,640
Speaker 1: of one percent, Crewed up two point nine percent, forty

45
00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:41,520
Speaker 1: eight sixteen of barrel, and three thirty two on Wall Street.

46
00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,120
Speaker 1: Now we'll look at other news from around the world.

47
00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,120
Speaker 1: Thank you, Charlie from the Bloomberg News Room. I'm Jill Schneider.

48
00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,360
Speaker 1: This news update is brought to you by the Jeep

49
00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:54,280
Speaker 1: Grand Cherokee, the most awarded suv ever. The Grand Cherokee

50
00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:57,640
Speaker 1: continues to raise the bar with its luxurious interior and

51
00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:00,960
Speaker 1: legendary four by four capability. Drive one at your local

52
00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:04,200
Speaker 1: Jeep dealer today. A law enforcement official in Rio de

53
00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:08,200
Speaker 1: Janeiro now says to security guards did point guns at

54
00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,760
Speaker 1: Ryan Lockty and three other American swimmers during a dispute

55
00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,000
Speaker 1: at a gas station early Sunday. Police had earlier said

56
00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,280
Speaker 1: no gun was pointed at them. The change in the

57
00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:19,959
Speaker 1: version of events came after police interviewed one of the

58
00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,280
Speaker 1: security guards today part of the investigation and to lock

59
00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,200
Speaker 1: these claims that the swimmers had been robbed at gunpoint.

60
00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:28,840
Speaker 1: There could be some fallout in the shooting death of

61
00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:32,119
Speaker 1: a black teenager in Chicago. Bloomberg's Michael Barr has more.

62
00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:36,360
Speaker 1: The superintendent of the Chicago Police says he will recommend

63
00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,040
Speaker 1: that seven officers who were involved in the shooting death

64
00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:43,400
Speaker 1: of a black teenager be fired. Superintended Eddie Johnson says

65
00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:47,400
Speaker 1: he accepted the recommendations of the Chicago Inspector General, who

66
00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:51,880
Speaker 1: concluded the officers filed false police reports. Mcwon McDonald died

67
00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:56,480
Speaker 1: after he was shot multiple times at close range. Officer

68
00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,960
Speaker 1: Jason Van Dyke has charged with first degree murder in McDonald.

69
00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:03,960
Speaker 1: To Depth Michael Barr Bloomberg Radio. A newly built apartment

70
00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,560
Speaker 1: tower in Long Island City hasn't yet opened to the

71
00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:09,440
Speaker 1: public or found a single tenant, but the building is

72
00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,240
Speaker 1: for sale. The developer says it put the forty five

73
00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,320
Speaker 1: story building on the market to take advantage of investor

74
00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,320
Speaker 1: demand to own apartments in the area just across the

75
00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:21,920
Speaker 1: East River from Manhattan. Global news twenty four hours a day,

76
00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:25,800
Speaker 1: powered by more than journalists and analysts in more than

77
00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:30,839
Speaker 1: twenty countries. I'm Jill Schneider and Mrs Bloomberg Charlie, and

78
00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,000
Speaker 1: we thank you, and again recapping SMP five hundred index

79
00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,520
Speaker 1: up three to five, a gain there of one tenth

80
00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:41,120
Speaker 1: of one. I'm Charlie Pellett and that's a bloom Bread

81
00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:45,679
Speaker 1: business flash. You're listening to taking Stock with Kathleen Hays

82
00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:50,120
Speaker 1: and Pim Fox on Bloomberg Radio. The pound strengthens and

83
00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:55,400
Speaker 1: more investors still concerned about Brexit and the UK economy. Well,

84
00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:58,680
Speaker 1: let's find out more in the context of retail sales

85
00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,240
Speaker 1: rising one point four sent in July in the United Kingdom,

86
00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:06,280
Speaker 1: that follows a nine tenths of a percent drop in June.

87
00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:11,359
Speaker 1: And also seeing that employers are not sending their workers

88
00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:13,719
Speaker 1: pink slips in the United Kingdom, they're not making any

89
00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,960
Speaker 1: sudden decisions to lay off staff. Here to tell us more,

90
00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,400
Speaker 1: as Jacob Kureguard, he is Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for

91
00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:25,280
Speaker 1: International Economics, joining us from Washington, d C. Home of course,

92
00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,880
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg FM and one oh five point seven h

93
00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,080
Speaker 1: D two. Jacob, thank you very much for being with

94
00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:35,680
Speaker 1: us is other results today? Are the numbers today? Is

95
00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:38,480
Speaker 1: it an anomaly or is this something that we can

96
00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,680
Speaker 1: expect in the future. I wouldn't be it an anomaly,

97
00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,479
Speaker 1: but it's certainly good news for the UK eclony MEA

98
00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:46,880
Speaker 1: mean that they came in I mean retail fields came

99
00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,760
Speaker 1: in well about consensus. I mean I wouldn't be you know,

100
00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,560
Speaker 1: too much of the monthly numbers. As you mentioned, there

101
00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:56,080
Speaker 1: was a decline in June, the rebound in July. But

102
00:05:56,120 --> 00:06:00,200
Speaker 1: it certainly suggests that the vote itself hasn't then said

103
00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:04,720
Speaker 1: UK consumer confidence uh, to any great extent, and that

104
00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:07,440
Speaker 1: is in the short run in my opinion, as I said,

105
00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:11,000
Speaker 1: really good news for the UK comm Can it be sustained?

106
00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:13,880
Speaker 1: What does h you we saw the pound jumping on this,

107
00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:17,159
Speaker 1: what how is this going to play out now? After

108
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,760
Speaker 1: sort of first blush over the next six months to

109
00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,600
Speaker 1: a year, maybe Mark Karney, Bank and eng then governors

110
00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:27,400
Speaker 1: moved to just step up with stimulus reassured people. Well,

111
00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,719
Speaker 1: that's no doubt that that the proactive manager is taken

112
00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,440
Speaker 1: by the Bank of England earlier a few weeks ago,

113
00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,080
Speaker 1: would have that effect in the medium term but I

114
00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:40,280
Speaker 1: would also expect the UK fiscal policy to be significantly

115
00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:44,280
Speaker 1: eased over the cause of the four months. But I

116
00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,719
Speaker 1: would still argue that I think the real risk to

117
00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:50,360
Speaker 1: the UK economy is not so much a declining consumer

118
00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:53,680
Speaker 1: spending in the short comedian term. It's really an investment

119
00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:58,240
Speaker 1: driven risk, uh. And it's that the uncertainty associated with

120
00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:02,039
Speaker 1: the circumstances a Brexit, I mean, how's it going to unfold,

121
00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:05,160
Speaker 1: etcetera is going to be so big and continue to

122
00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:08,600
Speaker 1: be so big that you know, businesses are not going

123
00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:12,280
Speaker 1: to invest. So the downturn that I continue to believe

124
00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:15,080
Speaker 1: occur in the UK economy, it's going to be investment

125
00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:18,680
Speaker 1: led rather than consumption leed. Just a little bit more

126
00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:24,000
Speaker 1: detail on those retail sales reports, sales of watches and jewelry,

127
00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,120
Speaker 1: they were up about sixteen and a half percent on

128
00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:32,160
Speaker 1: the year. Perhaps that less valuable pound making it less

129
00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:36,160
Speaker 1: expensive for overseas shoppers and also making holidays in the

130
00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:39,600
Speaker 1: United Kingdom cheaper. That was that will continue want it,

131
00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:44,400
Speaker 1: I think that will continue in it. I believe that

132
00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:49,040
Speaker 1: the pound, the pound is going to continue to decline

133
00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:53,000
Speaker 1: going forward because of uncertainty and because of the declining

134
00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:57,360
Speaker 1: appeal of the UK as a destination for foreign direct investment,

135
00:07:57,760 --> 00:07:59,880
Speaker 1: and then the fact that it is a country within

136
00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:04,480
Speaker 1: very significant current account deficit. And I don't believe that

137
00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,000
Speaker 1: at the end of the day foreign investors will continue

138
00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:10,720
Speaker 1: to finance that at the even at today's exchange, right,

139
00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,000
Speaker 1: I think the further has the found that further fault.

140
00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:20,000
Speaker 1: What's interesting, uh that the European Central Bank, which gave

141
00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:25,000
Speaker 1: an account of its July meeting today, agree that their

142
00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:28,480
Speaker 1: immediate reaction to the outcome of bregsit should not fuel

143
00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:35,160
Speaker 1: excessive speculation about more stimulus. That it was widely shared

144
00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:39,160
Speaker 1: um and if it's warranted, they would use all the

145
00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,320
Speaker 1: instruments that they're within their mandate. But it seems like

146
00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:44,360
Speaker 1: are they just waiting and watching or are they saying

147
00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:47,200
Speaker 1: they don't think they're that worried about the impact of Brexit,

148
00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,240
Speaker 1: not only on the UK but on other European economies.

149
00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:52,880
Speaker 1: Seems that these European economies could suffer the UK isn't

150
00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,400
Speaker 1: by their exports. Yeah, I mean, I must say I'm

151
00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:00,640
Speaker 1: particularly worried about that. I think the Eurozone economy will

152
00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:06,200
Speaker 1: prove quite resilient to a downturn in the UK economy UH,

153
00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:10,319
Speaker 1: and I certainly wouldn't expect the ECB to launch any

154
00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:15,480
Speaker 1: more monetary stimulus as a response to UH quantity a

155
00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:19,440
Speaker 1: sorry to to Brexit. That doesn't mean that the European

156
00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:24,000
Speaker 1: Central Bank later this year will not, for instance, choose

157
00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:29,080
Speaker 1: to continue or extend its quantitative eating program for other reasons,

158
00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:34,280
Speaker 1: but they don't think they will be Brexit related. Jacob

159
00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:38,400
Speaker 1: tell us a little bit about the political implications of Brexit.

160
00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,400
Speaker 1: I mean, you can go back and maybe fifty years ago,

161
00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,280
Speaker 1: sixty years ago, it wasn't as if the British and

162
00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:50,960
Speaker 1: the French were necessarily uh wonderful soul mates on every topic. No,

163
00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:54,400
Speaker 1: I mean I think the political the longer political educations

164
00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:59,400
Speaker 1: of this vote are really still incredibly on certain um.

165
00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:02,240
Speaker 1: I think we now know that the current British government

166
00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:06,400
Speaker 1: UH Prime Minister May has said, you know, brexit means brexit,

167
00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:09,200
Speaker 1: so they're gonna go for it. But but what does

168
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,640
Speaker 1: that concrete melean Does that mean that they want to

169
00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:16,520
Speaker 1: clean break from the EU and then negotiate some sort

170
00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:20,440
Speaker 1: of free trade agreement. Doesn't mean that they will try

171
00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,520
Speaker 1: to get a relationship with the EU similar to that

172
00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:26,800
Speaker 1: of Norway. For instance, which is sort of a peripheral

173
00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:32,319
Speaker 1: semi member of the EU. UH, it's really very very uncertain,

174
00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:35,319
Speaker 1: and I think you know that the time it will

175
00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:37,360
Speaker 1: take for us to know that is going to be

176
00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:42,040
Speaker 1: measured in years, not in months, years and not in months.

177
00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,720
Speaker 1: So I think Jacob here forgard there's probably a number

178
00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:48,760
Speaker 1: of European watchers and UK watchers who agree with you.

179
00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:53,800
Speaker 1: Jacob a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

180
00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:56,800
Speaker 1: I'm Catheine Hayes along with PM Fox. This is Bloomberg

181
00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:05,000
Speaker 1: coming up on taking stock, retail, Darwinism, its survival of

182
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,600
Speaker 1: the fittest. We'll find out about who's got the best

183
00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,160
Speaker 1: leadership and the best investment plans. That's next