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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast, just about that action. All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go throwing out so spect we're sitting.

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Speaker 2: It's a cash touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to winning.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combine if you want

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Speaker 2: to be and we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 3: am your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined by

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Speaker 3: the one, the only, the man a lot of us

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Speaker 3: call BA in our discord. He's known as BA as

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Speaker 3: well Brandon Anderson. For some best bets for oh yeah,

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Speaker 3: we've made it people. It's Thursday, it's Friday. Whenever you're

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Speaker 3: listening to it could be Saturday or Sunday. It is

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl sixty. Let's dive in, and as always, I

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Speaker 3: am going to start off with two interesting things. Of course,

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Speaker 3: they are both in my Super Bowl sixty betting primer,

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Speaker 3: which I have on Actionnework dot com. But to me,

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Speaker 3: these are just some interesting stuff you may not have

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Speaker 3: heard in other places. Now, obviously, during the two weeks

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Speaker 3: and honestly probably the last like two months, all you've

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Speaker 3: heard about is the Patriots strength to schedule. I thought

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Speaker 3: it was kind of interesting to discuss, just for a seconds,

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Speaker 3: the Seahawks. So using Pro Football references full season strength

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Speaker 3: to schedule, which indicates the combined win percentage of opponents

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Speaker 3: the team's played in a given year, the Seahawks are

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Speaker 3: actually about twelve of one hundred and twenty Super Bowl

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Speaker 3: participants in history.

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Speaker 1: They are plus one point sixty one.

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Speaker 3: But ignore the number, just the fact they are basically

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Speaker 3: twelfth all time and those previous eleven teams went eight

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Speaker 3: and three in the Super Bowl, which is kind of intriguing.

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Speaker 3: And I just don't think we talk about what the

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Speaker 3: Seahawks have had to go through in terms of a

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Speaker 3: gauntlet enough, just based off of how easy New England

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Speaker 3: schedule has been. And the difference between Seattle and New

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Speaker 3: England strength to schedule is six point one when you

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Speaker 3: just look at the metric, that is the second highest

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Speaker 3: of any Super Bowl in history. I have to go

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Speaker 3: back to nineteen seventy one to find the other big

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Speaker 3: difference between strength to schedules. So that's note one, which

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Speaker 3: I'm sure Ba will have something to say in a second,

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Speaker 3: and then I'm going to give you one more here

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Speaker 3: it's a super Bowl, you guys deserve one more than one.

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Speaker 3: Teams leading at the half in the Conference Championship for

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl are actually nineteen and thirty four and three

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Speaker 3: second half ats last twenty years. That's using bet Labs

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Speaker 3: and five and eleven second half ats in the Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl since two thousand and eight. The other one, which

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Speaker 3: is in my newly published Referee Trends in Stats article,

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Speaker 3: teams leading at the half. When Sean Smith, who is

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Speaker 3: the lead official here for the Super Bowl, leading at

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Speaker 3: the half a second half ats forty one and seventy

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Speaker 3: nine thirty four percent against a second half spread fail

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Speaker 3: in the cover by.

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Speaker 1: Two point nine points per game.

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Speaker 3: Now, since two thousand and eight, I've had fifty four

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Speaker 3: main officials in the NFL. That is the worst second

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Speaker 3: HALFVATS mark for teams leading at the half, and they

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Speaker 3: have gone under five hundred second havats in all eight

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Speaker 3: of Sean Smith's season. So I found that reasonably intriguing,

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Speaker 3: especially because both trends kind of go together and it

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Speaker 3: is extremely slanted. Now, we can talk about who's going

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Speaker 3: to lead at the half and all those fun things

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Speaker 3: during this podcast, but let me bring them in BA Brandon.

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Speaker 1: What's going on?

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Speaker 3: Man? How are you welcome to the end of week

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Speaker 3: two heading to the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, back with the studio lighting, back out of the

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Speaker 4: dungeons of North Dakota for the big game one last

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Speaker 4: time for our preview here. Yeah, man, this is gonna

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Speaker 4: be a really fun game. Definitely a game that I

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Speaker 4: got more interested in and more excited about as I

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Speaker 4: dug in over these last couple of weeks. And of course,

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Speaker 4: you know, this is the one time all year we

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Speaker 4: have two full weeks to prepare and then it's just

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Speaker 4: one game. So you're gonna get angles from every direction

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Speaker 4: and everything you got. And yeah, it makes sense really

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Speaker 4: that in the game of this Magnitude Conference Championship Super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: It makes sense when you have teams that good that

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Speaker 4: they're going to fight back in the second half, that

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Speaker 4: the team that's leading is going to face some real

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Speaker 4: push or some real competition from that team coming back.

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Speaker 4: And especially we know how good the underdogs have been

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Speaker 4: in the Super Bowl, and so that kind of makes

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Speaker 4: sense aligning with that as well. Strength the schedule, So Patriots,

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Speaker 4: strength the schedule. I had a tweet that talked about

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Speaker 4: week by week through the schedule you probably see. You

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Speaker 4: might have heard it on some other podcasts you listen to,

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Speaker 4: because this thing has been everywhere that I've seen.

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Speaker 2: Hat tip to myself.

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Speaker 4: They they face eleven fired head coaches sorry ten, plus

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Speaker 4: the Steelers who resigned and didn't get fired. I roll,

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Speaker 4: eleven coaches who are now with the team anymore. Plus

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Speaker 4: the Jets twice, who arguably should have fired their coach

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Speaker 4: fired everybody else, plus the Bengals no Burrow, no Chase,

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Speaker 4: plus three NFC South teams.

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Speaker 2: That's it.

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Speaker 4: That's the entire schedule for the pater for the Seahawks.

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Speaker 4: They have already this season six victories against a team

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Speaker 4: that won twelve or more games this season.

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Speaker 2: That is an NFL.

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Speaker 4: Record already, and it will be seven if they win

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Speaker 4: the super Bowl. Now, granted we got an extra game

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Speaker 4: on the schedule, so twelve wins is more like eleven

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Speaker 4: and five back in the day, So there's slight asterisk

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Speaker 4: on that one. But they're about to pass the record

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Speaker 4: by two if they get this win. And it's of

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Speaker 4: course largely it's the division. Instead of playing the Jets

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Speaker 4: and the Dolphins, you're out here playing the forty nine Ers.

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Speaker 4: Three times and the Rams three times this season. That's

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Speaker 4: obviously accounting for a lot of those wins. So the

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Speaker 4: question now is you know this this feels is Probably

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Speaker 4: isn't quite as apt these days the way college conferences

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Speaker 4: every formatted.

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Speaker 2: But it used to feel like whoever.

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Speaker 4: Came out of the SEC was just going to be

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Speaker 4: like the big favor in the championship. And isn't the

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Speaker 4: NFCU wes kind of the SEC of this year where

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Speaker 4: we had these three powerhouse teams competing all year, Seattle

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Speaker 4: took the top two down in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: Here they are.

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Speaker 4: I came into this exercise two weeks ago thinking, man,

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Speaker 4: Seattle Rams, that was the super Bowl. Then we found

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Speaker 4: out who they're gonna beat. Now we'll just figure out

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Speaker 4: how I'm gonna bet it. And then the longer these

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Speaker 4: two weeks have gone, and you read some stuff and

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Speaker 4: you listen to some content, you.

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Speaker 2: Watch some videos, you're.

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Speaker 4: Like, well, everyone's making a pretty good case for the Patriots.

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Speaker 4: There's some pretty interesting stuff out there, and we'll get

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Speaker 4: into it both sides. And then the more I dig

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Speaker 4: in to say, okay, let's finalize some picks here, I'm

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Speaker 4: back around to feeling pretty good about Seattle again, and

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Speaker 4: it's the Super Bowl. These are two good teams. Credit

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Speaker 4: to both of them. You only beat who's in the

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Speaker 4: front of you, and the Patriots and the Seasucks beat

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Speaker 4: who's in front of them.

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Speaker 2: And here we are.

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Speaker 4: And if the Patriots win one more, then somebody's gonna say,

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Speaker 4: well they beat Sam Darneld congrat.

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Speaker 1: Who cares you won the Super Bowl?

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Speaker 2: Nothing matters anymore.

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Speaker 4: If you beat all the rest of the teams and

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Speaker 4: are the last ones standing, kegs fly it forever, it

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Speaker 4: won't matter.

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Speaker 2: But you got to win one more still, so we'll

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Speaker 2: see how it goes.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And as a guy who graduated from MYU, I

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Speaker 3: would more call the NFC West to Big ten. But

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Speaker 3: that's a subject for a different day. If you'd like

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Speaker 3: to tell some of the bets we're about to discuss,

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Speaker 3: find the quick slip link in the podcast and video description,

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Speaker 3: or visit actionewer dot com slash bet Now. Even better,

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Speaker 3: sign up for Action Pro, especially right before the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: We got Action Pro users get real time alerts as

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Speaker 3: soon as experts like Stuckey ba Chris Raybond all track

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Speaker 3: their picks in the Action app. You'll also get real

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Speaker 3: time money percentages. See where the smart money's flowing. Access

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Speaker 3: to our NFL player prop projections powered by the one

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Speaker 3: and only Sean Kurner.

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Speaker 1: Also, you can nail those live too.

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Speaker 3: They've got live player prop projections which always fun during

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Speaker 3: the game. I got a few live angles for you

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Speaker 3: during this pod right now. To celebrate Super Bowl sixty.

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Speaker 3: com slash Pro.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's do it.

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Speaker 3: So we are going to go through a bunch of

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Speaker 3: sections right now. Brandon's gonna have a lightning round of

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Speaker 3: some props and vets, and then at the end we're

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Speaker 3: gonna do some gatorade, some fun novelty stuff, some long shots.

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Speaker 3: So we've got a lot on tap for you guys.

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Speaker 3: Let's start with the Seahawks defense, which inevitably talks about

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Speaker 3: New England's offense. So give me a little bit of

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Speaker 3: air and I'll give you a few stats on the way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: So Seattle defense to me is the one unit I

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Speaker 4: feel best about in this game, and that makes sense.

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Speaker 4: That was the defense, that was the unit I believe

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Speaker 4: most in all season.

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Speaker 2: There were two.

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Speaker 4: It was Seahawks defense, it was Rams offense. That's why

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Speaker 4: we hyped that matchup that we wanted all year. We

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Speaker 4: got it three times. It was fireworks every time. It

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Speaker 4: felt like that was the super Bowl, and Seattle's defense

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Speaker 4: came out on top, you know, with a little bit

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Speaker 4: of help from the offense as well. But Seattle defense

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Speaker 4: number one DVOA, top two against the run and the

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Speaker 4: pass all season. And if you look at those matchups

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Speaker 4: since week thirteen, they played the Rams offense twice, they

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Speaker 4: give up sixty four points. So we'll call that a

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Speaker 4: push at best, maybe a fail by the Seahawks defense.

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Speaker 4: But the Rams offense is miles better than anyone else

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Speaker 4: against every other team since Week thirteen and every other game.

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Speaker 4: So sixty four points to the Rams, forty four points

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Speaker 4: total to every other team since then, forty four on

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Speaker 4: sixty two drives two touchdowns in that entire span, seven

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Speaker 4: points a game for all non Rams opponents, and that

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Speaker 4: again includes the Niners twice, who were team we thought

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Speaker 4: was this juggernaut offense until we said, oh well, I

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Speaker 4: guess they're not anymore.

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Speaker 2: No, they were.

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Speaker 4: They just played the Seahawks after that, So Seahawks defense,

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Speaker 4: we know just how good they are. And like you said,

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Speaker 4: inevitably we got to talk about the Patriots offense here,

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Speaker 4: and to me, Patriots offense, the metrics from the season

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Speaker 4: are very strong, but it doesn't quite pass the smell

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Speaker 4: test to me. So they faced, gotta say it, the

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Speaker 4: easiest schedule in the league by DVAA offense and defensively

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Speaker 4: pretty totally unproven tell the playoffs, and now they've faced

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Speaker 4: a very difficult playoff schedule, but they have not been

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Speaker 4: good offensively at any point in the playoffs. Eighteen points

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Speaker 4: a game. That's the lowest for any team that made

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Speaker 4: the Super Bowl since nineteen seventy nine, almost fifty years.

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Speaker 4: They're at minus zero point seven to three epa per drive.

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Speaker 4: Now that number doesn't mean much to you, so let

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Speaker 4: me give some context. The Jets this season, we're at

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Speaker 4: minus zero point seven to two the Patriots this playoffs

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Speaker 4: have been the Jets offense. That's how bad it's been

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Speaker 4: comparatively to other Super Bowl teams. That number of ranks

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Speaker 4: right in between the two thousand Ravens and the twenty

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Speaker 4: fifteen Broncos. Guess what those are? Defense teams? Those are

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Speaker 4: all time great defensive teams that we knew were supposed

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Speaker 4: to be that good defensively, that we knew. The offense

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Speaker 4: just need to stay out of the way. That's what

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Speaker 4: the Patriots have been so far. And if you think

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Speaker 4: they are that, you should probably bet the Patriots. I

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Speaker 4: don't think they are that. Patriots have scored fifty four

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Speaker 4: points in three playoff games. It's the fewest for any

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Speaker 4: three game playoff win streak since nineteen sixty nine. They

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Speaker 4: have been below thirtieth percentile both success rate and EPA

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Speaker 4: per drive all three playoff games. From shield Capatia, Drake

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Speaker 4: may ranks last among every quarterback in the last decade

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Speaker 4: with three starts in one playoff. In EPA and success rate,

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Speaker 4: he's thirty third percentile EPA in the playoffs thirty third

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Speaker 4: percentile on the season against the top ten defense. This

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Speaker 4: is the guy that as we record this, Havan is

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Speaker 4: up for MVP tonight. Like by the time you listen

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Speaker 4: to this, he might be our reigning MVP, but he

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Speaker 4: had this year nine games worth a PFF grade at

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Speaker 4: sixty or higher. Here's who those were against Dolphins, Jets

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Speaker 4: twice each, Panthers, Bills, Saints, Titans, Giants, not exactly a

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Speaker 4: real gauntlet their defense, and only four of those games

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Speaker 4: with the good PF half grade since Week seven. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 4: eight games fiftieth percentile or worse PFLF and EPA six

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Speaker 4: of those since week seven. And Seattle defense, by the way,

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Speaker 4: has held opponents to fifty percent or worse fourteen of

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Speaker 4: nineteen games. So we're going to get probably a slight

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Speaker 4: leap or much worse, below average type game from Drake May.

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Speaker 4: And I think we just have to start there with

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Speaker 4: Seattle defense really good, Drake May probably good. Patriots offense

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Speaker 4: not good so far in the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the playoff performance, especially, like looking at something as

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Speaker 3: simple as a passer rating, what Drake May did during

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Speaker 3: the regular season and obviously against the schedule he did,

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Speaker 3: and what he's done in the playoffs, it's about I

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Speaker 3: think about a twenty five to thirty percent difference in

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Speaker 3: terms of passer rating, like one hundred and eighteen to

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Speaker 3: like eighty five or so, like.

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Speaker 1: An amazing drop off.

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Speaker 3: But you also, and this is what I've kind of

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Speaker 3: been struggling with Week to week when trying to figure

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Speaker 3: out what New England is is the weather in those

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Speaker 3: two games, the cold that there was a very different

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Speaker 3: atmosphere for how New England got here and for how

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Speaker 3: Seattle especially not really having to play much in the

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Speaker 3: divisional round, and that game was over after almost a

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Speaker 3: player or two. So I mean the style that they

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Speaker 3: went to get here, I think are just very different.

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Speaker 3: And now you're neutral field, good wet, like everything is

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Speaker 3: kind of evened out when you talk about this game.

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Speaker 3: So I think it's I don't want to say it's

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Speaker 3: I think some of the stats from New England's side

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Speaker 3: are a little skewed, and I think so I think

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Speaker 3: that's a little bit difficult to figure that out. The

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Speaker 3: one thing I looked at, which you know, can you

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Speaker 3: can look at this a few different ways. Top twelve

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Speaker 3: defenses in ePaper play and success rate. New England's faced

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Speaker 3: number one, Houston, number four, Cleveland, number sixth Chargers, number eight,

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Speaker 3: Dender and number ten the Saints. They've won them all. Okay, Now,

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Speaker 3: in those games it's been a bit back and forth.

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Speaker 3: I'm under four yards per play against Houston and Denver

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Speaker 3: and then over five and a half yards per play

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Speaker 3: against the Saints, Chargers and Browns. So I think depending

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Speaker 3: on how you look at this, you can kind of

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Speaker 3: skew that any way you want. But they've also seen

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Speaker 3: that type of defense. Now Seattle's number two, so they've

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Speaker 3: pretty much seen what they need to see entering this matchup.

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Speaker 3: And now we're going to talk about health and all

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Speaker 3: that stuff in a little bit later. But I think

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Speaker 3: a big thing is Iman worry even if he plays

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Speaker 3: in this game, based off of knowing he's got a

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Speaker 3: slight ankle sprain. I mean, how does that impact what

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Speaker 3: Seattle does on defense? So I think that's a big

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Speaker 3: part of it. Now Sean Kerner, who obviously looks into

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Speaker 3: all these individual players, especially on the defensive and tackles,

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Speaker 3: and it's this.

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Speaker 1: Side, you know, what do you do with that matchup?

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Speaker 3: Even if he plays and say he's got to be

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Speaker 3: replaced a few snaps by Okada or Joby or or Woolan,

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Speaker 3: however they decide they need to do that, especially let's

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Speaker 3: say he's sixty forty decoy, just to get the guy

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Speaker 3: out there.

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Speaker 1: I think it impacts the matchup.

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Speaker 3: So New England's seen it, but I feel like this

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Speaker 3: one could be a little bit different.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think you make good points about that

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Speaker 4: that the Patriots. We're going to talk about why their

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Speaker 4: defense has to have some caveats, and it's the weather

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Speaker 4: and some of those factors. But it's fair to point

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Speaker 4: out that offensively, they haven't really had to put it

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Speaker 4: into fourth or fifth year to try to get there.

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Speaker 4: And you know, especially we had an entire second half

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Speaker 4: blizzard where no offense, no player could do anything in

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Speaker 4: that game, So it's fair to caveat that. So I

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Speaker 4: think then it's worth to look at this specific matchup,

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Speaker 4: and I do see again some real matchup issues for

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Speaker 4: the Patriots offense. Seattle defense number one against rushing by EPA,

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Speaker 4: Patriots been bottom ten by EPA. I just have a

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Speaker 4: really hard time seeing a successful rushing game by New England,

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Speaker 4: even to the point that I don't think it's worth

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Speaker 4: getting that much into it. So, okay, what else, Well,

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Speaker 4: the Patriots been a passing team all year. We talked

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Speaker 4: about plosives. They're the number one explosive team twenty percent

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Speaker 4: of their passing plays fourteen percent of their offensive plays overall.

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Speaker 4: But they just played Denver, who was the number one

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Speaker 4: explosives defense, and we saw them take those away. Guess

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Speaker 4: who's number two. It's Seattle only seven point eight percent

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Speaker 4: of the plays allowed. Top two fewest explosives running and passing,

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Speaker 4: and Drake May has seen his percentages fall off on

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Speaker 4: twenty plus air yard throws completed seventy seven percent of

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Speaker 4: those through week eight, thirty five percent since then as

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Speaker 4: the season has gone along. And look, Sam Darnold has

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Speaker 4: a similar type trend with how's he he's gone. But

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Speaker 4: we'll get to that side of the ball. Seattle number

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Speaker 4: one dv AWA against wide receiver one. Okay, so let's

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Speaker 4: zoom out. If you're taking away mostly Stefon Diggs, that's

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Speaker 4: wide receiver one. If you're taking away the deep ball booty,

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Speaker 4: if you're taking away the run game, okay, what's left? Like,

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Speaker 4: where is the offense supposed to come from? For the Patriots.

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Speaker 4: I'm worried also about their offensive line, and we talked

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Speaker 4: about that in previous matchups as well. But Will Campbell

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Speaker 4: and Wilson on the left side, those guys have really

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Speaker 4: struggled this postseason, and Drake May along with them. They

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Speaker 4: were in the regular season twenty fourth in the NFL

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Speaker 4: and pressure rate allowed. Seattle is fourth in a pressure rate.

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Speaker 4: They are deep on the defensive line, They're coming at

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Speaker 4: you in the waves, resting, ready to go. Patriots were

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Speaker 4: bottom five and sacked differential in the regular season and

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Speaker 4: now it's even worse.

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Speaker 2: Drake May.

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Speaker 4: If you look at his EPA underplay EPA per play

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Speaker 4: under pressure in the playoffs, he would rate as the

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Speaker 4: worst quarterback in the league. In the regular season numbers

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Speaker 4: sixty three percent pressure to sack rate, five sacks all

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Speaker 4: three games so far. Now, look, some of Drake may

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Speaker 4: sacks aren't quite as damaging. Some of them are escaping

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Speaker 4: the pocket, getting like a two yard loss as he

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Speaker 4: steps out of bounds. But these are still negative plays.

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Speaker 4: These are still plays that can kill a drive. And

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Speaker 4: it's hard to find to me the script for what

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Speaker 4: the Patriots offense can do.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 4: I do think one thing is by design, Seattle is

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Speaker 4: not great against short passes. They're great on long passes. Defensively,

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Speaker 4: they're great intermediate, they're kind of league average at short passes.

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Speaker 4: By design, that's what they want you'd have to do.

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Speaker 4: If you're gonna throw short ten twelve, fourteen times down

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Speaker 4: the field. They believe they're gonna make a play. In

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Speaker 4: the meantime, they're gonna get a negative play, they're gonna

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Speaker 4: get a turnover, some big tackle, and you're not gonna

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Speaker 4: make it all the way down the field. And don't forget,

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Speaker 4: Patriots are also pretty poor offensively in the red zone,

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Speaker 4: where Seattle is elite. So now you're ten twelve plays

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Speaker 4: down the field and you set up for a field

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Speaker 4: goal to ten. Anyways, even after all that works, so

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Speaker 4: it is just asking a lot of Drake May to

383
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Speaker 4: manage all that pressure and make those accurate short throws

384
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Speaker 4: under pressure, pass after pass after pass on these long

385
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Speaker 4: drives all the way down the field. So before we

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Speaker 4: even get to the other side of the ball, I'm

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Speaker 4: coming with my first bat here. I'm gonna take the

388
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Speaker 4: Patriots team total under twenty and a half. Now, the

389
00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:03,359
Speaker 4: Patriots have only gone under that number four times all season,

390
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Speaker 4: but twice has been in the playoffs. And look on

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Speaker 4: the other side. Fact about Seattle's defense, They've played nineteen games,

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Speaker 4: three against the Rams. We know how good the Rams are.

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Speaker 4: Outside of the Rams games, Seattle's opponents have gone under

394
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Speaker 4: twenty and a half thirteen out of sixteen games. Fifteen

395
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Speaker 4: points a game in those and two of those three

396
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Speaker 4: overs came in garbage time in the fourth quarter, one

397
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Speaker 4: in the final minute. Evan, do you know who is

398
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Speaker 4: the only not rams team to score twenty one on

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Speaker 4: the Patriots this season?

400
00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:37,800
Speaker 2: Not in garbage twn? Do you know who it is?

401
00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:40,439
Speaker 1: I don't, but I would guess one of the AFC

402
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:41,160
Speaker 1: East teams.

403
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 2: It's a good guess.

404
00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 4: It is not one of the AFC's teams. It is

405
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Speaker 4: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, only one of that has done it.

406
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Speaker 4: And by the way, both these teams are also bottom

407
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Speaker 4: four in pace. So I was looking for unders anyways,

408
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Speaker 4: on a slow game, a defensive game. And look, I'm

409
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Speaker 4: not really sure what I think about Seattle's scoring. We'll

410
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Speaker 4: get to that next, but I don't think the Patriots

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Speaker 4: are going to score ourself. First bet of the podcast

412
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Speaker 4: Patriots under twenty and a half team total.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it. Honestly, I'm a little contrarian, as

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Speaker 1: you know.

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Speaker 3: You know, I would consider I think New England sticks

416
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Speaker 3: in this game, so I like the under as well.

417
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Speaker 3: I would even look at maybe New England stays under

418
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Speaker 3: twenty and a half and still covers or still wins

419
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Speaker 3: this game. In a low scoring game, so I think

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Speaker 3: something like that might be possible. So that would be

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Speaker 3: one thing I look at. But yeah, let's turn to

422
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Speaker 3: the other side of the ball here. I think the

423
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Speaker 3: question everyone should be asking themselves. Can we still trust

424
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Speaker 3: Sam Darnold even though he just came off maybe the

425
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Speaker 3: best game of his career in the NFC Championship game,

426
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Speaker 3: possibly against the Rams. But you have a thought about

427
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Speaker 3: when they need to be successful. So what are you

428
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Speaker 3: looking at when you look at Seattle's offense at New

429
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Speaker 3: England's defense?

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Speaker 4: Ye, as a Vikings fan, still trusting Sam Bernald is

431
00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 4: a very kind word to use there. I don't know

432
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Speaker 4: if we ever quite outrusted Sam Darnold, And I think

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Speaker 4: that's the big question in this game.

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Speaker 2: This set of the ball, to me, is much more unpredictable.

435
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Speaker 4: So Seattle offense, we've talked a lot over the last

436
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Speaker 4: couple of months, has faded pretty hard from Week eleven

437
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Speaker 4: and to Foard, they played the Rams in that game.

438
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 4: I know there's a lot of Rams talk here, but

439
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 4: from that game forward, Seattle's offense cratered from number one

440
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:24,440
Speaker 4: passing to number twenty five passing by Dvay. But suddenly

441
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:26,959
Speaker 4: really good at these last two weeks against the Niners

442
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 4: and the Rams. Again, Now, is that because you're facing

443
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 4: teams that you've played before a couple of times?

444
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 2: Is it because that eleux or time prepared?

445
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,919
Speaker 4: Did they do some self scouting perhaps in that the

446
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 4: couple bye week that they have the extra time off,

447
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:41,879
Speaker 4: that could play into the factor there as well. But

448
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,440
Speaker 4: Donald's numbers fell off a lot from early in the

449
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,160
Speaker 4: season until late in the season. And it's pretty easy

450
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,399
Speaker 4: if you're trying to be contrarian or make a Patriots case,

451
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 4: you're starting with Donald like that's the place you start,

452
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 4: and you're probably starting with turnovers. Seattle as good as

453
00:21:56,200 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 4: they are, second most turnovers in the league this year,

454
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 4: twenty eight giveaways. They had multiple giveaways nine times this season.

455
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 4: Now none in the last three games. Pretty convenient time

456
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 4: in the game for the one seed and then two

457
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 4: playoff games to not have turnovers. You're gonna look pretty

458
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 4: good when that happens. But football is tough. The ball

459
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,919
Speaker 4: is oblong. What if the turnovers come back? What if

460
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 4: Donald looks like the other Darnald again On the flip side,

461
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:27,119
Speaker 4: Patriots defense suddenly elite, like it looks like the Seahawks

462
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 4: defense out here two point four yards of carry against

463
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 4: the run in the playoffs, after they had completely fallen

464
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 4: apart down the stretch. Their passing defense was bottom five

465
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,679
Speaker 4: by DVA the first half of the season. They've been

466
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 4: up more like league average last half of the season,

467
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 4: even better in the playoffs. Milon Williams is back, Christian

468
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 4: Gonzalez was hurt early. Zach Kerr calling plays has been

469
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 4: really good. There's a lot of positive momentum with their defense,

470
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 4: and I think there are some matchup spots too that

471
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,639
Speaker 4: they can really attack. Seattle's offense, for being a super

472
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:03,160
Speaker 4: Bowl favorite, is not really a Super Bowl favorite type offense.

473
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 4: They're the lowest pass rate neutral in the league. They've

474
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 4: only had two games all season with a positive pass

475
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 4: rate over expectation. One of them was the Rams game

476
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 4: that they just came off of. One thing particular, this

477
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 4: is a very heavily play action passing offense. Donald leads

478
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 4: the league in play action by DVOA. But the Patriots

479
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 4: defense all season has been a really good against play

480
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,919
Speaker 4: action top two by DVA, by EPA, whatever metric you

481
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 4: want to use. Patriots play lots of light box. We've

482
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 4: talked about how Seattle tries to bait you into being

483
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 4: heavy and then beat you on play action. New England

484
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,120
Speaker 4: hasn't really done that all season. That's part of why

485
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 4: they've been so good, I think against play action. But

486
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 4: they also play ninth most man coverage in the league.

487
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 4: Sam Donald way better against man than zone this season,

488
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 4: third INNEPA against man more like league average against zone,

489
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 4: and JSN good against everything, but especially ridiculous against man.

490
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 4: I think I think also probably Seattle's weakest link on

491
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 4: the field is their interior offensive line, especially Bradford at guard.

492
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 4: And we've heard a lot about Millton Williams, Christian Barmore.

493
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 4: We've seen in the Mahome Super Bowls when it goes

494
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 4: really sideways, it's interior pressure. It's somebody in your face

495
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 4: right away off the snap, and that could cause a

496
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 4: lot of those ghosts for Sam Darnald to come up again.

497
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 4: So I have some thoughts on the Patriots defense and

498
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 4: how much we should believe in the recent effect here.

499
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 4: But what do you think about this side of the ball.

500
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 3: Okay, so I have a Patriots defense stat I'm going

501
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 3: to wait to use that after you go through your

502
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 3: diet tribe.

503
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: But I'm going to start with Darnald.

504
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 3: The one thing I wanted to look at was this

505
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 3: so we understand how valuable and how much impact JSN

506
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 3: has on the offense, especially when you look at yards

507
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 3: and targets and all these different things. They really put

508
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,160
Speaker 3: him at the top of lists all time in terms

509
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:55,719
Speaker 3: of what he's done for Seattle. And we could talk

510
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 3: about that a little bit later when you talk about Jaysn.

511
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 3: But I looked at a stat that's Fantasy points put

512
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 3: out there, which is first read and design throws. So

513
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 3: this season, Donald at sixty three point one percent full

514
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 3: season going to his first read and a design throw.

515
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,639
Speaker 3: Now since Week eleven, that Rams game, it's down to

516
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 3: sixty point six percent. And then I looked at the

517
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 3: seven games versus top ten defenses in EPA per play,

518
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 3: it's down to fifty eight point eight percent. To me,

519
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 3: this is a good sign for Donald because he's actually

520
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 3: talked about going through his progressions and that being something

521
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 3: he's learned to do as he's become a more efficient,

522
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 3: less turnover worthy prone quarterback. So I think this is

523
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,160
Speaker 3: a good thing if you like Seattle that you want

524
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 3: that number under sixty percent because Jaysn is going to

525
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 3: get his right, there is like going to be a

526
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 3: number of targets and a number of looks that he's

527
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 3: going to get in the offense. But I think where

528
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 3: Donald does well is he looks to Jaysn then and

529
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 3: that's what this is also about time in the pocket. Right,

530
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 3: Is seattle offensive line going to give him enough time

531
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 3: to get to that second read or look to the

532
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 3: tight end or all.

533
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 1: These different types of things.

534
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 3: And Cooper cup as people have talked about, like you

535
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 3: might like him under three and a half receptions as

536
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 3: some people do, but those two or three receptions he

537
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,120
Speaker 3: might get in this game are going to be very

538
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 3: valuable because he's a good possession wide receiver. So that's

539
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,199
Speaker 3: the stat off the bat that I looked at that

540
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 3: if you like Seattle, I think you want that mark

541
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 3: a little bit definitely under that sixty three percent for

542
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 3: the season.

543
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that that makes a lot of sense.

544
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 4: And I think but back to the Patriots defensive been

545
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 4: sure as good as they have looked recently. We talked

546
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 4: about this with the offense, how the metrics are really bad,

547
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 4: but are they a lying a little bit to us?

548
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 4: Is the weather covering that up a little bit, and

549
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 4: I think the Patriots defense is getting the same effect,

550
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 4: but in the positive direction. You know, I talk a

551
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 4: lot about DVOA. Aaron Shottz has had out this week

552
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 4: that these are number one and number two and awaited

553
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 4: DVA so teams that you know, that's counting the games

554
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 4: more recent as a bigger deal. These are the top

555
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 4: two teams now and the Patriots have not been high

556
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,399
Speaker 4: in dvall season. But I think way to DVA is

557
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 4: lying to us a little bit because it doesn't necessarily

558
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 4: take into account whether or it doesn't take into account

559
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 4: backup quarterback on the field. And over these last six games,

560
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 4: while the Patriots defense suddenly looks like this incredible defense,

561
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 4: six games, they faced four backup quarterbacks, three third string

562
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 4: quarterbacks in that group, and they've had two bad weather

563
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 4: games on there, and those games came against terrible, awful

564
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 4: offensive lines. That there won two games against horrible offensive lines,

565
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 4: one in the bad weather one otherwise. But obviously all

566
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 4: of those things are going to help make your defense

567
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,159
Speaker 4: look really good. And now, of course Seattle's defense has

568
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 4: played some backup quarterbacks and tough matchups or easy matchups

569
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 4: as well. But I think it would be a mistake

570
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 4: to just think, oh, yes, the Patriots, they kind of

571
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 4: found it all and pulled it all together late in

572
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,719
Speaker 4: the season. Well, what's the context. They've barely faced anyone

573
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 4: down the stretch. If you go by kind of consensus

574
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 4: quarterback rankings, always arguable, they really only face in the

575
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 4: regular season this defense two quarterbacks the entire season that

576
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 4: I think would be in the consensus top half of

577
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 4: the league. Josh Allen twice, Baker Mayfield.

578
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 2: That's it.

579
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 4: They have not been that tested, and now I don't

580
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,679
Speaker 4: know that they've really been tested in the playoffs by

581
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 4: what we've seen based on some of the conditions. There

582
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 4: so lots of hype right now for Milton and Barmore

583
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 4: at defensive tackle, Lots of hype for Gonzalez and Carlton

584
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 4: Davis at corner. I think though there's some drop off there.

585
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 4: Milton William has been really good. Christian Barmore a really

586
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 4: good pass rush. But if you look at his metrics

587
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 4: against the run out of one hundred and thirty four

588
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 4: inside defensive linemen at PFF, he ranks one hundred and

589
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 4: thirty third against the run, second to last out of

590
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 4: all of them. Carlton Davis good corner, but he looks

591
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 4: to gamble. He can get beat in man coverage. Watch

592
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 4: for a defensive pass interference from Davis sometime this game.

593
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 4: Jackson Smith and Jigba is gonna love lining up from

594
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 4: Carlton Davis when it gets the chance, and I think

595
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 4: he can kind of torch some of the man coverage,

596
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 4: even some perhaps bracketed or double team coverage. I still

597
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 4: don't know that they're going to keep up. And Patriots

598
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 4: dead last in a red zone defense by DVA on

599
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 4: the season. And so that's another spot where if Seattle

600
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 4: moves the ball enough, can the Patriots slam the door,

601
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 4: or where the Seahawks just get the ball in anyway,

602
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 4: So to me, if I want to trust the Seahawks defense,

603
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 4: if I want to believe in Donald some of the

604
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 4: numbers you said, I have to believe in them early,

605
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 4: and that means early in series, early on downs, and

606
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 4: early in the game. Seattle led the league this season

607
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 4: in passing DVA on first down. They dropped a twenty

608
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 4: fifth on third down. Here's the translation. When it's neutral

609
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 4: and you don't know what's coming, Seattle can kill you

610
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 4: with passing. When we know Samy has to pass. No,

611
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 4: thank you, it's not going great for us. And we've

612
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 4: seen that play out again Vikings fan here. More than

613
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 4: just this season. We've seen that sort of thing play

614
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 4: out with Donald in his career. Patriots defense is the opposite.

615
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 4: They've been really good on third down, below average and

616
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 4: early downs. That's a rough formula. If Seattle can just

617
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 4: move the chains and not even get the third down,

618
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 4: then it's going to be pretty easy. You don't have

619
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 4: to convert third down you never got there. Seattle's offense

620
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 4: also has been way better early in each half. Top

621
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 4: six DVA first quarter and third quarter, below average offense

622
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 4: second and fourth quarter. Here's what I make of that.

623
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 4: That is Clint Kubiak, future Raiders head coach, getting the

624
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 4: script right. That is having a plan at the start

625
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 4: of the game and out a halftime, and it's sort

626
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 4: of masking covering up some of the offensive weaknesses. And

627
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 4: we've seen that in the playoffs. Look at these Rams

628
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 4: Niners games. We've just come off of four of those

629
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 4: in the last couple months. The biggest game Seattle's played

630
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 4: against the Rams first two drives seven and three points

631
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 4: against the Niners first two drives seven and three points.

632
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 4: Other Niners game seven points on one sixty six yard drive,

633
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 4: turnover on the other, other Rams games seven points on

634
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 4: one punt on the other.

635
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 2: The offense is moving.

636
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 4: The ball early and the Patriots, we know, we talked

637
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 4: a lot this year about they're a first half team

638
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 4: that's offense, not defense. They are the thirtieth DVA in

639
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 4: the first quarter and that also has played out in

640
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 4: the playoffs. Let's look at the matchups as good as

641
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 4: the defense has been. The Chargers, who scored three points

642
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 4: all game on their first three drives, got to the

643
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 4: two and then the five. They just settled for a

644
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 4: field goal and turn it over and downs, but they

645
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 4: moved the ball early and scored their only points for

646
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 4: the game. Houston got all the way to the one

647
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 4: yard line, settled for a field goal, and then scored

648
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 4: a touchdown four plays in the second quarter. That's ten

649
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 4: of their sixteen points early in the game. Denver with

650
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 4: Jared Stidham touchdown on a second drive red zone turnover

651
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 4: to start the second quarter, that's their only seven points.

652
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 4: So even in the playoffs, the Patriots defense is giving

653
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 4: up moving the ball early for opponents, and I think

654
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 4: Seattle can do that.

655
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 2: Here.

656
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 4: Now here's one more stat. This is completely throwaway stead.

657
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 4: I realize just how irrelevant this is, but why not

658
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 4: help the case. Patriots have played nine super Bowls this century.

659
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 4: The entire nine super bowls, they've scored three points in

660
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 4: the first quarter.

661
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 2: I'll come bine it. It's crazy.

662
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 4: Look, different quarterback, different coach, completely irrelevant, don't care, I'm

663
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 4: including the stat anyways. So I think Seattle looks good early.

664
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 4: If you like Seattle, you should like them to look

665
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 4: good early. You can just play first quarter. That's plus

666
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 4: one oh five for them to win the first quarter

667
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 4: out right. I don't mind that, But there's no urgency.

668
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 4: We've lost some of those first quarterbats where the quarter

669
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 4: ends you scoring the second play in the second quarter,

670
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 4: you're like, ah, we were so close right there. So

671
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 4: here's the one I'm going to give you. Obviously, I'm

672
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 4: gonna be on Seahawks in this game. I got the

673
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 4: Seahawks green on, and you we're half an hour and

674
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 4: you clearly know this. Seahawks to score first in a win.

675
00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 4: You can bet that outcome to combine bet most major

676
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 4: bucks plus one twenty five. And look, if I want

677
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 4: Seattle in this game, I'm gonna want them to look

678
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 4: good early. If they're bad early offensively, if they fall behind,

679
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 4: and I have Sam Darnold off script, I'm probably not

680
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 4: gonna want to be investing in Seattle anyway. So give

681
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 4: me Seahawks first score and win outright plus one twenty five.

682
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 3: You talked about some of those offenses that New England's faced.

683
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 3: I mean, they've only played three games versus top fifteen

684
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:31,000
Speaker 3: dropback EPA per play teams fewest in the NFL, two

685
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 3: versus Buffalo one versus the Giants. In those three games,

686
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 3: opposing quarterback average time to throw two point nine to

687
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 3: one seconds highest in the NFL. Average time to pressure

688
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 3: two point seventy nine also highest. They I mean haven't

689
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 3: been their best best against some of those good offenses.

690
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 3: And on the other side, Seattle's played seven of those games,

691
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 3: so goes back to kind of the strength of schedule

692
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 3: thing I talked about off the top of the pod.

693
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 3: The way I like your bet with Seattle. If that

694
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 3: game script works that way, you can also take Seattle

695
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 3: to win the first half on the three way plus

696
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 3: their money line, which works out to be about even.

697
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 3: And I took a look back last two seasons with

698
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 3: Seattle and Minnesota. Darnold when his team leads at to

699
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 3: half is twenty two and one straight up twenty two

700
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,360
Speaker 3: to one against a spread full game when they're trailing.

701
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 1: Respectful six and five.

702
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 3: But it kind of talks about what you said when

703
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 3: he's comfortable, when he's leading, almost unbeatable, So to me,

704
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 3: I think that is a good way to play this game.

705
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so.

706
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 1: So.

707
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 4: A couple other notes on Seattle here as we kind

708
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 4: of wrap up the big picture and move toward trends.

709
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 4: Special teams. We've talked about with Seattle all season. They're

710
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 4: going to have a big advantage here now, not as

711
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 4: huge advantage as against the Rams or Niners, but the

712
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 4: Patriots are really going to be disadvantaged everywhere except punt return.

713
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 4: Patriots are the only team in the league that are

714
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:55,720
Speaker 4: a better rating punt return than Seattle. These actually Marcus

715
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 4: Jones and Rashishi. He'd have number one and number two

716
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 4: most yards per punt return in NFL history at this stage,

717
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,800
Speaker 4: so these are the best those two. But the Patriots

718
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 4: special teams has been kind of below average to bad

719
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 4: at everything else, especially notably in its own punt coverage not.

720
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,439
Speaker 2: Great as good as Rashid Shihidaz.

721
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 4: Seattle has been awesome awesome on kickoff, kickoff coverage and

722
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 4: kickoff returning. That's some hidden yardage getting better starting field

723
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 4: position both ways, so pay attention to that. I do

724
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,240
Speaker 4: think that's another advantage for Seattle as is. We've talked

725
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 4: about this the rest and the health advantage. Patriots didn't

726
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 4: have that bye week a bit ago, and they've played

727
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:37,320
Speaker 4: these tough cold weather games, close games down the stretch. Seattle, meanwhile,

728
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,240
Speaker 4: this is only their second new opponent since Week fifteen.

729
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 4: These are teams that they've been playing that they knew,

730
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 4: and I think they have had a huge preparation advantage

731
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 4: for this game.

732
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 2: Now.

733
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 4: Both teams had two weeks here, but I think that

734
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 4: they've probably the chance to be getting ready for a

735
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:55,240
Speaker 4: matchup like this for a while now. And then obviously

736
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 4: health wise, you talked about Im and Wori, but Drake

737
00:35:58,160 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 4: May's shoulder has been a story.

738
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,760
Speaker 2: We've talked about lot all the last couple of weeks.

739
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 4: Robert Splane, the linebacker for the Patriots, a couple other defenders.

740
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 4: There are more injury notables for New England than for Seattle.

741
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 4: And then a few stats. I think I pulled these

742
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 4: right out of your article, so hat tip to you

743
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 4: on all of these. But if we're going to go

744
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 4: with a side pick, here teams with a better winning

745
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 4: percentage in the Super Bowl since two thousand and three

746
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 4: ridiculous one in seventeen ATS, and that in this case

747
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 4: is the Patriots. They tied the Seahawks in the regular season,

748
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 4: but played that early game because Seattle had the bye

749
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 4: week New England didn't. And by the way, the only one,

750
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 4: the only cover in there that was the Patriots against Atlanta.

751
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 2: They trailed twenty.

752
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 4: Eight to three, so they were not exactly supposed to

753
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 4: cover that one time either. So that's a Seattle trend.

754
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,720
Speaker 4: Teams that failed to cover the conference championships since nineteen

755
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 4: seventy two eleven and a one ATS. That makes sense

756
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 4: to me. If you are barely getting to the Super Bowl,

757
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 4: a bit of a Cinderella type story, perhaps you're probably

758
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 4: not the team that's going to go and cover again

759
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 4: the next game. And then, of course, the stat we

760
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:05,919
Speaker 4: know every Super Bowl. If you like a team to win,

761
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 4: you should like them to cover. Super Bowl winners all

762
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 4: time fifty seven and two against the spread eighty eight percent.

763
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 4: So whoever you like, you should bet to cover thirty

764
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 4: one and one ats if the spread is six or below. Look,

765
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 4: I don't love Seattle minus four and a half. I'll

766
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 4: be honest. I have it five and a half. I

767
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 4: don't see a ton of value on that. It's kind

768
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 4: of a dead zone as far as points go. Five

769
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:31,919
Speaker 4: is not a number you need to worry about. This

770
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,880
Speaker 4: is not necessarily a bet on a week eight Sunday

771
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 4: that I'd be rushing to give out on the podcast

772
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 4: with a Super Bowl, we have to give out a side,

773
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 4: and I took Seattle three and a half on the

774
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:45,359
Speaker 4: Hot Read right after it posted. All the trends tell me.

775
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 4: If I like Seattle to win as much as I do,

776
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,359
Speaker 4: I just have to like them to cover as well,

777
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 4: because I think part of why that trend is happening

778
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 4: where the winner covers is it's the last game. You're

779
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 4: giving out everything, So maybe where you might just push

780
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 4: towards the end, or even like taking knee, you're throwing

781
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 4: one more crazy hail may or something, and maybe it's

782
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 4: setting the other team up to cover. And to me,

783
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 4: at the end of the day, the Patriots have three

784
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 4: playoff wins. I think mostly by letting the opponent beat itself. Now,

785
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 4: look you're here in the Super Bowl. You did the thing,

786
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 4: and maybe they can last. Sam Darnold beat themself too.

787
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 4: But to me, Seattle controls his destiny. They're the better

788
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 4: team and they should win or they'll be the team

789
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 4: that loses it. But I think it's Seattle that controls

790
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,720
Speaker 4: the outcome either way. If it's a side, it's Seattle

791
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 4: minus four and a half for me.

792
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, special teams. I'll say one more thing. The kicking

793
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 3: is such a difference. You have Dvowa Seattle's first New England,

794
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 3: twenty fourth kick return sixth for Seattle, fifteenth for New England.

795
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 3: To me, those are the biggest advantages, and especially seeing

796
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 3: even if Seattle kind of gets held back, maybe doesn't

797
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 3: do great on third down, Myers is fantastic and I

798
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 3: definitely trust him more than I do Borealis And you

799
00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 3: mentioned put return. It's kind of an even game there.

800
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 3: But I think you're I think you're probably right in

801
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 3: terms of what you like with Seattle. I just think

802
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,479
Speaker 3: there's better ways to play it. Like I think there's

803
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 3: better ways to lay to get the Seattle money line

804
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 3: in a few different things versus that four and a

805
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,720
Speaker 3: half because again a lot of key numbers there.

806
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 1: So a little scary.

807
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:23,240
Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about defense and the Super Bowl.

808
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 3: This is really your specialty. I've done this pod with you.

809
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 3: You and I have been here at Action for a while.

810
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 3: I know you are on this in a lot of

811
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 3: different ways year to year. So how do you tend

812
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 3: to try to play defense in the Super Bowl?

813
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, pencil me in next year Super Bowl podcast as

814
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 4: betting the defense.

815
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:39,799
Speaker 2: I just this.

816
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 4: I'm going to do this every Super Bowl until it

817
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 4: stops being profitable. Defensive score touchdowns on the Super Bowl.

818
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 4: I don't really know how to explain why it's happening,

819
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:50,840
Speaker 4: but it is a thing that keeps happening. Just happened

820
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 4: last year Cooper dejen pick six seventeen to nothing game

821
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:57,840
Speaker 4: over against the Chiefs. That happened in the previous Chiefs

822
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,360
Speaker 4: Eagles matchup, Nick Bolton scoop and a score or he

823
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 4: almost had a second touchdown it got called back on

824
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 4: a bang bang review. Otherwise he's probably MVP of that

825
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 4: game for the Chiefs. Twenty three defensive touchdowns. Now in

826
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 4: fifty nine Super Bowls at least one in twenty of them.

827
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 4: That's more than one out of three Super Bowls that

828
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 4: have a defensive score. So why, I don't really know.

829
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 4: I don't really care, to be honest, It's just the

830
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 4: trend I'm following. It's defenses to have more time to

831
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 4: watch your tendencies. Maybe they're able to jump something that way.

832
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 4: I mentioned the desperation factor, whatever it is. In the

833
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 4: last twenty four Super Bowls, we've had fourteen defensive touchdowns,

834
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,760
Speaker 4: now over a half defensive touchdown per game. I think,

835
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 4: especially this year, that suits the game pretty well. Seattle's

836
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 4: defense very aggressive, very gonna come at you. But Seal's

837
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 4: offense second most giveaway. So I think, if you like

838
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 4: New England, or if New England steals this game, in

839
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:52,920
Speaker 4: my opinion, why wouldn't it be for a turnover. Why

840
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 4: wouldn't it be because a weird bounc or two happened

841
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 4: the wrong direction? New England maybe pulled a touchdown out

842
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 4: of nowhere. Defensively, seven points in a game between teams

843
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 4: of this caliber, free points is a huge swing. So

844
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:08,400
Speaker 4: I want to bet defense. I want to bet touchdowns,

845
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 4: and it's important here. Check my Raticle. I have a

846
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:13,240
Speaker 4: whole article just on betting defense in the Super Bowl.

847
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 4: Very important to watch how you're betting this one, because

848
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:19,720
Speaker 4: some books you're betting defense touchdown, some you're betting defense

849
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 4: slash special teams touchdown. We just talked with the special teams.

850
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 4: Give me the special teams. I'll pay a little extra juice.

851
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,839
Speaker 4: I want that possibility as well. These teams had eight

852
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 4: special teams touchdowns already this season, and we've seen thirteen

853
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 4: special teams touchdowns in the Super Bowl, so I want

854
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 4: that in there now. You can just bet either team

855
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 4: defense or special teams touchdown. Several books have that available.

856
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:46,320
Speaker 4: It's plus two to sixty five. That's twenty seven percent implied.

857
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:49,880
Speaker 4: We have thirty six touchdowns and fifty nine Super Bowls.

858
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 4: That's sixty one percent. So we're getting like half of

859
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,720
Speaker 4: what the implied versus reality should be. But I always

860
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 4: taking a step further, and this is a bet we

861
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:04,359
Speaker 4: hit last year on this podcast. All but three out

862
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:07,239
Speaker 4: of twenty three defensive touchdowns in the Super Bowl have

863
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 4: come from the winning team. Again, that makes sense. If

864
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,879
Speaker 4: you get seven free points, you're probably gonna win the game.

865
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:16,320
Speaker 4: The winning Super Bowl team has a defensive touchdown sixteen

866
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 4: out of fifty nine Super Bowls, now twenty seven percent.

867
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 4: So I'm betting two ways, both things together, not in

868
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 4: the same bet. But gave me Seattle defense special teams

869
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 4: touchdown plus the Seattle money line that's at plus eight

870
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:32,919
Speaker 4: thirty three, and then give me the exact same bet

871
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 4: with the Patriots touchdown defense or special teams Patriots money

872
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:40,239
Speaker 4: line at about twenty seven to one. I'm betting that

873
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 4: both ways. Last year, I was wrong on nearly everything

874
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 4: about the Super Bowl. I was Chiefs, I was all

875
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 4: Kansas City. I got to this bet. I bet Kansas City.

876
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 4: I bet Philly. Philly hit plus eight fifty and covered

877
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 4: a bunch of my sins on the Chiefs because that's

878
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:57,759
Speaker 4: what happened. We got the big turnover early. That was

879
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 4: the game. You bet these two together, you're getting combined

880
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:05,799
Speaker 4: about plus six hundred, about double our value. And again

881
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 4: we just hit it last year. And if the defense

882
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 4: stores a touchdown, if you get the big play. I

883
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 4: think defense MVP is also in a play. You can

884
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 4: bet any defensive MVP at fifteen to one. We've had

885
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 4: ten of those in Super Bowl history, more defenders than

886
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 4: running back more defenders than receiver. About won every seven

887
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:28,400
Speaker 4: Super Bowls the defensive MVP. It's not necessarily the best defender,

888
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,360
Speaker 4: so you don't want to take necessarily the shutdown corner

889
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 4: or the stud defensive tackle. You want splash plays, right,

890
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:38,280
Speaker 4: you want a sack, a turnover, You love a touchdown.

891
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 4: Seattle last Super Bowl win MVP Malcolm Smith. Who's even

892
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 4: hurt on Malcolm Smith anymore? He's a linebacker that made

893
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:49,320
Speaker 4: a big play in that game. Dexter Jackson, Larry Brown.

894
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 4: These are dudes that went on to like sign massive

895
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 4: contracts because they won Super Bowl MVP, and then we

896
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 4: kind of forgot about them after that. So don't go

897
00:43:57,520 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 4: crazy on these. Here's a pizza bet for you. But

898
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:02,439
Speaker 4: if you want to try to sprinkle a little bit

899
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 4: on three specific defensive MVPs, here's my guys. Marcus Jones

900
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 4: mentioned him already one hundred and fifty to one. He's

901
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 4: the third corner for New England. But he has four

902
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,680
Speaker 4: interceptions this season. Two of them he returned for touchdown

903
00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 4: because guess why, he's awesome returning the ball. It's like

904
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 4: a punt return for him, which he by the way,

905
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 4: his two punt return touchdowns this season as well, and

906
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 4: those count for MVP. Bet if you make a big

907
00:44:26,520 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 4: play special teams or defense. That's one way. Marcus Jones

908
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 4: to Marcus Lawrence one hundred and fifty to one. Six

909
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 4: sacks in the regular season, one each playoff game as well,

910
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:39,400
Speaker 4: three fourced fumbles in the playoffs already, and I really

911
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 4: like his matchup against Will Campbell. He's the guy, the veteran,

912
00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 4: He's going to have that narrative swing for him. He's

913
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 4: a free agent that they just got this year. I

914
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:48,800
Speaker 4: think that could look really good if he gets a

915
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 4: couple of big plays off the edge and the last one.

916
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:55,880
Speaker 4: Ernest Jones Seattle's top linebacker two hundred to one for MVP.

917
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 4: Three of the four this century defensive MVPs have been linebacker.

918
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 4: Kind of makes sense. These are the guys that never

919
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 4: leave the field. You're right in the middle of everything.

920
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 4: Ernest Jones led Seattle and combined tackles by thirty this season.

921
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 4: He's like Ivan Ovs to lead the game and tackle,

922
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 4: so he's gonna get eight, nine to ten tackles probably,

923
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 4: and he led the team interceptions as well. So we

924
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:19,799
Speaker 4: talked about those short passes. We talked about pressure and

925
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 4: Drake May dumping it off. Guess who's waiting for you

926
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 4: right over the middle, maybe Ernest Jones taking it back

927
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:29,759
Speaker 4: the other directions. So bet on defense, bet on defensive touchdowns,

928
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 4: maybe even a defensive MVP. If it's going to be

929
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:34,440
Speaker 4: one Super Bowl, why not this one. We've had so

930
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 4: much defense in both of these teams leading us here.

931
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:39,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, you and I look at the same stats and

932
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,399
Speaker 3: we're basically on the same players. I like your three

933
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 3: choices for a multitude of different reasons. The way I

934
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 3: would look at the is this, I like over two

935
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 3: and a half turnovers in the game. That is the

936
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 3: over under at the moment. I think Seattle's d line

937
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 3: versus Drake May, though, is the focus. One of the

938
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 3: reasons I like Drake May over twenty nine and a

939
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:01,320
Speaker 3: half rushing yards almost two weeks ago, now up almost

940
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 3: ten yards after that, is this May has played four

941
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 3: games versus top ten teams in pressure rate this year,

942
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 3: ten point four percent dropbacks resulted in a sack versus

943
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 3: those teams of twenty seven qbs. With four plus games

944
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 3: versus those top ten pressure teams, May's ten point four

945
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:19,800
Speaker 3: percent mark is the sixth highest of those twenty seven qbs.

946
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 3: Now the interesting thing ten point four percent versus top

947
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 3: ten pressure eight teams down to seven percent versus all

948
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 3: other teams, that three point four percent difference is a lot.

949
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,359
Speaker 3: And in those games, those four games versus the high

950
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 3: pressure eight teams, thirteen scrambles one hundred and fourteen yards

951
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 3: in a touchdown. So I think he's going to be

952
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 3: on the run. And I think of those three bets,

953
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:45,840
Speaker 3: DeMarcus Lawrence feels great over. I think it's a quarter

954
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:48,400
Speaker 3: sack was plus money when we took it about a

955
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 3: week ago.

956
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 1: To me, that's the play.

957
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 3: And if he's going to get a sack, if he's

958
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 3: going to be in his face, And I also think

959
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:58,360
Speaker 3: fumble fumble recovery may be a touchdown. There's different ways

960
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 3: to play that. But I think Drake going to be

961
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 3: on the run. And again you mentioned it, Will Campbell

962
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 3: is not the matchup. I think that's good in this

963
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 3: one for him. So I like Lawrence on the other

964
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 3: side and let's through for some defense.

965
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 2: Yeah.

966
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:12,720
Speaker 4: Will Campbell had a lot of talk on the combine

967
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 4: last year about having short arms and could he hold up.

968
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 4: But I think we could get a lot more talk

969
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 4: here on this one if he struggles like he has,

970
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:22,560
Speaker 4: because Lawrence is a beast and he's going to cause

971
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:23,880
Speaker 4: a lot of problems off the edge.

972
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 3: All Right, it is time for lightning run. We're gonna

973
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 3: go through some props. Jaysn Hunter, Henry Kenneth Walker, Rashichi,

974
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 3: he we got it all. Let's do it now. So

975
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 3: you obviously like Jaysn in some way or fashion in

976
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 3: this game, but how are you going to play it?

977
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:39,359
Speaker 1: Yeah?

978
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 4: So he's obviously been the star for Seattle all season.

979
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,400
Speaker 4: He's kind of the star that the whole Seattle universe

980
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:47,839
Speaker 4: rotates around. I don't see why that changes in this game.

981
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:49,960
Speaker 4: And it's kind of crazy looking at his numbers. He

982
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 4: leads the league in receiving yards. He's going to pass

983
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:55,960
Speaker 4: two thousand sometime in the Super Bowl. And that's despite

984
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:58,280
Speaker 4: them being the run heaviest neutral team in the league.

985
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 4: And that's because he is responsible for so much of

986
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:04,719
Speaker 4: their offense forty four percent of Sam Darnold's yards this

987
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 4: year passing JSN, forty percent of the touchdowns for the

988
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:13,840
Speaker 4: team JSN And in this matchup, Patriots dead last against

989
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,759
Speaker 4: wide receiver one by DVA on the season. Now, they

990
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:18,839
Speaker 4: haven't really been tested a lot, so we haven't seen

991
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:21,919
Speaker 4: it too much. Story of the Patriots season, right, they'd

992
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 4: have to face Nuko Collins in the playoffs he has

993
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:26,719
Speaker 4: out hurt. They had to face Jamar Chase, he was

994
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:29,759
Speaker 4: suspended in that matchup. Probably the best guy they did

995
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:33,319
Speaker 4: face Drake London. Guess what he did nine catches, one

996
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 4: hundred and eighteen yards, three touchdowns on fourteen targets against

997
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:41,840
Speaker 4: the Patriots by Mike count. Patriots faced six clear quality

998
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 4: wide receiver ons this season. All six guys had at

999
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 4: least six catches and eighty four yards in that game.

1000
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 4: They averaged over seven catches one hundred and four yards

1001
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 4: on ten targets, and JSN is not an average wide

1002
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:57,719
Speaker 4: receiver one. So Christian Zalez really good. But don't think

1003
00:48:57,760 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 4: that this is a one on one matchup. That is

1004
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:02,720
Speaker 4: not how football is played in twenty twenty six Sealwe's

1005
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:04,880
Speaker 4: gonna move Jayson all over the field. He's gonna be

1006
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:06,680
Speaker 4: out wide, he'll be in the slot, he'll come out

1007
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 4: of the backfield. They're gonna get him different matchups. It

1008
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 4: can't just be Gonzal shadowing everywhere, including that we mentioned

1009
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 4: this earlier. Darnold is so much better against man coverage anyway,

1010
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:20,880
Speaker 4: and I mentioned how good JSN is against man third

1011
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 4: most yards in the season against man coverage four point

1012
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 4: two yards per route run against man. Number one like

1013
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:30,320
Speaker 4: lap the field on that stat that's a crazy number.

1014
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:33,319
Speaker 4: Here's another stat that I love with JSN. So he's

1015
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 4: the leading receiver in the NFL and made the Super Bowl.

1016
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 4: We've only had three guys do that since the nineteen eighties,

1017
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 4: technically two Jerry Rice twice Cooper Cup once. Listened to

1018
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 4: the line that those guys put up who led the

1019
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:48,840
Speaker 4: league in receiving yards and made the Super Bowl. Rice

1020
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:51,839
Speaker 4: seven catches one hundred and forty eight yards and three

1021
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:55,399
Speaker 4: touchdowns in the Super Bowl. Jerry Rice again nineteen ninety four,

1022
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:59,879
Speaker 4: ten one nine, three more touchdowns. Pretty good player, turns out.

1023
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 4: Cooper Cup eight catches ninety two yards, two touchdowns, super

1024
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 4: Bowl MVP. By the way, those three guys average eight

1025
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 4: point three catches and one hundred and thirty yards with

1026
00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:14,799
Speaker 4: eight touchdowns in three games. So I want Jason Escalator,

1027
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:17,360
Speaker 4: and it's going to be a kind of surprise ending Escalator,

1028
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:19,280
Speaker 4: except not much of a surprise. If you've been following

1029
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:22,440
Speaker 4: along the way. Start with over six and a half receptions.

1030
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:25,319
Speaker 4: I think that line is a full reception too low.

1031
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:28,400
Speaker 4: He's gone over six and a half thirteen of nineteen games,

1032
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 4: but that one's misleading. We played this last round and

1033
00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:34,919
Speaker 4: hit this. I think by halftime four of those six

1034
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 4: unders were in games at Seattle won by twenty one

1035
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:40,440
Speaker 4: points or more. Now, maybe the Seattle does that in

1036
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 4: this game, but if you expect it to bee at

1037
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:46,279
Speaker 4: all competitive, that means take those big blowout games out.

1038
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 4: Now he has seven catches and more in eleven of

1039
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:52,040
Speaker 4: the other thirteen games. That makes over six and a

1040
00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:54,839
Speaker 4: half look really good, even at minus one thirty nine,

1041
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 4: and we'll play the escalator at eight catches plus one thirty.

1042
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:01,240
Speaker 4: He's had eight catches and more ten of those thirteen

1043
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 4: non blowout games. Now, how far do we push the escalator?

1044
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:07,400
Speaker 4: I regret we didn't push it far enough in the

1045
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:10,879
Speaker 4: last matchup. He went way over. Here's the problem. He's

1046
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:14,640
Speaker 4: at eight catches exactly seven times max ten. That was

1047
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:16,040
Speaker 4: the last game, so you don't want to go too

1048
00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:18,839
Speaker 4: far that way. How about yardage, He's at one hundred

1049
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 4: and twenty three yards seven times but the Patriots haven't

1050
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:23,800
Speaker 4: given up that number all season, and one hundred and

1051
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:26,080
Speaker 4: twenty yards is only plus two to ten. That's not

1052
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 4: enough juice, Like the tow one hundred and twenty yards

1053
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:30,839
Speaker 4: in the Super Bowl is no small thing even for JSN.

1054
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:34,520
Speaker 4: So to me, if you expect eight nine ten catches,

1055
00:51:34,560 --> 00:51:37,320
Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty, one hundred and forty yards, forget

1056
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:41,040
Speaker 4: the numbers, just bet JSNMVP. This is the bet that

1057
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:44,360
Speaker 4: we've given that time and again on this podcast, twenty

1058
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:47,359
Speaker 4: eight to one before the playoffs, fifteen to one before

1059
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:50,320
Speaker 4: the NFC Championship game. And we know Super Bowl MVP.

1060
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 4: Obviously it's a lot of quarterbacks fifty eight percent all time,

1061
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:58,160
Speaker 4: seventy four percent in the last couple decades. But in

1062
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:01,279
Speaker 4: this matchup, JSN is going to take like half of

1063
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:05,399
Speaker 4: Donald's production. So you tell me Donald has two hundred

1064
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 4: and sixty yards and two touchdowns. Okay, JSN had one

1065
00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 4: hundred and forty of that and a touchdown himself, which

1066
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:13,400
Speaker 4: one of those feels more impressive to you, And I

1067
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 4: think it's usually gonna be JSN taking so much of that. Also,

1068
00:52:17,719 --> 00:52:20,120
Speaker 4: probably not a running back this game. No running back

1069
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 4: MVP in the Super Bowl this century, and both these

1070
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:26,960
Speaker 4: defenses are top five and fewest running back points in

1071
00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 4: fantasy and running back touchdowns. So I think the script

1072
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 4: sits perfectly here for JSN. If you'll get a wide

1073
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:36,400
Speaker 4: receiver MVPs over the last couple of decades in the

1074
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, it's not touchdowns, it's volume. It's cup It's Edelman,

1075
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:44,240
Speaker 4: Dion Branch. These guys are averaging nine and a half catches,

1076
00:52:44,239 --> 00:52:47,440
Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty nine yards, only three touchdowns between

1077
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:49,600
Speaker 4: the four of them. So it's not getting into the

1078
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:53,240
Speaker 4: end zone. It's moving the chains, it's being involved every

1079
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:56,360
Speaker 4: play over and over and over again, getting the volume.

1080
00:52:56,960 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 4: So here's how to bet it, Jason, MVP is plus five.

1081
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:03,040
Speaker 4: If that's all you've got, I'm fine with. I still

1082
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 4: think there's a value there. I'll help you with the math.

1083
00:53:05,640 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 4: He's got to be MVP in about twenty two percent

1084
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:11,040
Speaker 4: of Seattle victories. I think that's good in this matchup.

1085
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:14,880
Speaker 4: But there's a book out there combining for you Jaysn

1086
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 4: to win MVP and have one hundred receiving yards at

1087
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:21,279
Speaker 4: plus eight fifty, that's crazy to me. He's gonna have

1088
00:53:21,320 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 4: to have one hundred yards to win MVP anyways, Like

1089
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 4: his receiving line is ninety five. He had ninety yards

1090
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 4: or more in fourteen of nineteen games this season, So

1091
00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:31,880
Speaker 4: if we can't get to the hundred yards, we're probably

1092
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:34,160
Speaker 4: not winning MVP anyway. It's hard to imagine what the

1093
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 4: scenario is. So I will happily take that extra boost.

1094
00:53:37,600 --> 00:53:40,959
Speaker 4: JYSN one hundred receiving yards and MVP. That's the top

1095
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:43,919
Speaker 4: of the escalator here, it's plus eight fifty. I think

1096
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:46,759
Speaker 4: JSN finishes the season in style, just like he has

1097
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:47,520
Speaker 4: all season long.

1098
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, you talk about those odds. I mean, right now,

1099
00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 3: he's five to one at a few books. That would

1100
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:54,920
Speaker 3: be the second lowest price for a wide receivers win

1101
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:56,960
Speaker 3: we Super Bowl MVPs in two thousand and three.

1102
00:53:57,080 --> 00:53:57,920
Speaker 1: He's in a class with.

1103
00:53:57,920 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 3: Larry Fitzgerald, who is four to one back in two

1104
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 3: thousand and eight, which is just absolutely absurd in itself.

1105
00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:06,960
Speaker 3: And I tease this stat earlier, but forty four percent

1106
00:54:07,040 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 3: of the Seahawks receiving yards during the regular season, that's

1107
00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:12,160
Speaker 3: the highest mark for any team to make the Super

1108
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:16,000
Speaker 3: Bowl over the last fifty years. He is so so

1109
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:19,480
Speaker 3: valuable to this offense and I think New England's going

1110
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:21,799
Speaker 3: to do everything they can to try to stop him

1111
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:24,319
Speaker 3: in this game, but I think it's only about containing him.

1112
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 3: The thing I was looking at, I still kind of

1113
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:30,240
Speaker 3: believe this is going to be a close game, especially

1114
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:32,239
Speaker 3: as I kind of dig into this more so. I

1115
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:35,760
Speaker 3: was looking at three plus receptions in the second half

1116
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:39,799
Speaker 3: for JSN. Now he's at three point nine targets in

1117
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:42,240
Speaker 3: wins in the second half, and it's up to six

1118
00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:45,760
Speaker 3: in their losses. So even if it's not a loss,

1119
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:48,880
Speaker 3: so to say, but a tighter game, I still see

1120
00:54:49,000 --> 00:54:52,000
Speaker 3: five targets, six targets in the second half, and I

1121
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:54,359
Speaker 3: feel like getting three plus even if this game does

1122
00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:56,800
Speaker 3: start slow, which you feel like everyone you talk to

1123
00:54:56,800 --> 00:54:58,400
Speaker 3: you kind of feels that's going to be the pace,

1124
00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:00,880
Speaker 3: feels like decent bet to me.

1125
00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:02,120
Speaker 1: So that was the way I was looking at.

1126
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:03,919
Speaker 3: I got one more Jaysen bet, but I'm gonna save

1127
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 3: it for the end when I kind of spew my

1128
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 3: long shots.

1129
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:08,760
Speaker 2: All right, let's go Hunter Henry.

1130
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:11,160
Speaker 4: Then, so we keep playing running backs and tight ends

1131
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:14,200
Speaker 4: against Seattle. I think running back they finally cut up

1132
00:55:14,239 --> 00:55:16,799
Speaker 4: a little bit to Ramandrie Stevenson. But since Week eight

1133
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 4: no and non rams wide receiver has better than fifty

1134
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:22,960
Speaker 4: yards against the Seahawks. It's all running backs and tight

1135
00:55:23,040 --> 00:55:26,239
Speaker 4: end targets. Seattle opponents twenty four percent target rate two

1136
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:29,720
Speaker 4: tight ends on the season, Seattle is top six most

1137
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:31,400
Speaker 4: receptions and yards.

1138
00:55:31,120 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 2: Allowed to tight ends.

1139
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 4: They've already had seven tight ends with at least six

1140
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:38,520
Speaker 4: catches against them. Again, that's the script we talked about,

1141
00:55:38,560 --> 00:55:41,880
Speaker 4: short passes, long drives, dump offs to running backs and

1142
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:44,839
Speaker 4: tight ends. So Hunter Henry we tried way back at

1143
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:45,720
Speaker 4: the start of the season.

1144
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 2: We whipped there.

1145
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 4: We're going back to the Hunter Henry a while. He's

1146
00:55:49,200 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 4: only had six catches in the playoffs, but again some

1147
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:54,400
Speaker 4: weird scripts, not a lot of passing there. I looked

1148
00:55:54,440 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 4: starting at over three and a half catches, that's where

1149
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:59,400
Speaker 4: I wanted. He's over that in nine to seventeen regular

1150
00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:02,800
Speaker 4: season game but minus one forty It's a lot of

1151
00:56:02,880 --> 00:56:05,399
Speaker 4: juice on that one. And what I noticed is that

1152
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:08,839
Speaker 4: he has two games this season where he had four

1153
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:10,920
Speaker 4: catches but under forty five yards.

1154
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:11,920
Speaker 2: But he had four.

1155
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:14,359
Speaker 4: Games where he had less than that many catches but

1156
00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:18,040
Speaker 4: still had thirty nine yards or more so. Translation, even

1157
00:56:18,080 --> 00:56:20,439
Speaker 4: if the volume of catches isn't there. He can still

1158
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:23,359
Speaker 4: hit yardage, So I've pivoted the yardage instead. Let's go

1159
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:26,439
Speaker 4: over thirty nine and a half yards plus one oh five.

1160
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:29,239
Speaker 4: Henry has had thirty nine yards or more eleven of

1161
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:32,239
Speaker 4: twenty games, so fifty five percent, just over half. We're

1162
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:35,839
Speaker 4: getting plus money here. Seattle has allowed a forty yard

1163
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 4: tight end ten times in the regular season, and even

1164
00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 4: with the big blowout wins both playoff games, they've allowed

1165
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:45,480
Speaker 4: a forty yard tight end. So I like Hunter Henry

1166
00:56:45,719 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 4: to get to forty yards and we'll take to Henry

1167
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:51,200
Speaker 4: ask later fifty yards plus one fifty five. Seattle has

1168
00:56:51,239 --> 00:56:54,840
Speaker 4: allowed a fifty yard tight end now twelve times, including

1169
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:58,239
Speaker 4: the playoffs. Sorry, ten times including the playoffs. Henry has

1170
00:56:58,280 --> 00:57:02,239
Speaker 4: forty nine yards or more himself eight and then probably not,

1171
00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:05,320
Speaker 4: but just a little nibble top of the escalator, eighty

1172
00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:08,640
Speaker 4: Henry yards at plus six point thirty. He's done that twice.

1173
00:57:08,680 --> 00:57:10,760
Speaker 4: Seattle's allowed that four times this season.

1174
00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:12,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, you stucky.

1175
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 3: Everyone's kind of talked about Hunter Henry in this game,

1176
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:19,200
Speaker 3: and it's basically what Seattle's done against tight ends on defense,

1177
00:57:19,240 --> 00:57:21,560
Speaker 3: and it's not fantastic, and it's one of their weaknesses,

1178
00:57:21,600 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 3: so uh, I could see everyone kind of going on

1179
00:57:24,640 --> 00:57:26,640
Speaker 3: that path. The one thing I looked at is when

1180
00:57:26,720 --> 00:57:29,360
Speaker 3: New England's been trailing this year, which obviously isn't often

1181
00:57:29,360 --> 00:57:31,960
Speaker 3: considering their schedule and winning as many games as they

1182
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:34,240
Speaker 3: can as they have. But when you do that, they're

1183
00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:36,920
Speaker 3: two top targets Stefan Diggs twenty six of two to

1184
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 3: eighty six when trailing and Hunter Henry twenty three of

1185
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 3: two fifty two win trailing, both at about eleven yards

1186
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:46,240
Speaker 3: per reception on average, there both with sixteen first downs.

1187
00:57:46,840 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 3: And the thing I like, and here's my angle, he's

1188
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:52,959
Speaker 3: been barely looked at early in games zero point six

1189
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:56,160
Speaker 3: targets in the first quarter up to one point two

1190
00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:59,360
Speaker 3: were higher in all other of the quarters, including one

1191
00:57:59,400 --> 00:58:02,600
Speaker 3: point eight in the second quarter. It's three times the

1192
00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:04,840
Speaker 3: number of targets per game in the second quarter for

1193
00:58:04,880 --> 00:58:08,000
Speaker 3: the first So if he starts slow and maybe they

1194
00:58:08,040 --> 00:58:09,840
Speaker 3: go three and out, maybe they only get a driver

1195
00:58:09,960 --> 00:58:11,760
Speaker 3: two in the first quarter. I think it's a great

1196
00:58:11,760 --> 00:58:14,240
Speaker 3: option for a live bet on Hunter Henry to get

1197
00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:16,960
Speaker 3: some receptions and yards in this game, especially say that

1198
00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:18,720
Speaker 3: thirty nine and a half comes down to twenty nine

1199
00:58:18,720 --> 00:58:20,840
Speaker 3: and a half twenty five, which might happen if he's

1200
00:58:20,880 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 3: kind of empty after the first quarter, so that would

1201
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:24,320
Speaker 3: be a live look I would got.

1202
00:58:24,360 --> 00:58:25,720
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to Kenneth Walker.

1203
00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:28,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I know, Sean Kerner had the first quarter Hunter

1204
00:58:28,920 --> 00:58:32,000
Speaker 4: Henry under yardage and the second quarter Hunter Henry over,

1205
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 4: which is boy, if that's not threading the needle like

1206
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:37,480
Speaker 4: I've ever seen it. But you're right, that does set

1207
00:58:37,560 --> 00:58:39,440
Speaker 4: up I don't really give out a lot of live bets.

1208
00:58:39,560 --> 00:58:41,680
Speaker 4: I'd rather give you the content on front here, but

1209
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:44,600
Speaker 4: this does set up really well. I'll trust Sean's word

1210
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:46,360
Speaker 4: on the first quarter second quarter stat. You have the

1211
00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:48,520
Speaker 4: numbers to back it up, so that might be the

1212
00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:52,120
Speaker 4: spot here. Kenneth Walker receptions, that's another one that we

1213
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:55,280
Speaker 4: have played in the playoffs already. We hit this against Seattle.

1214
00:58:55,600 --> 00:58:59,080
Speaker 4: His receiving has gone a way up last ten games

1215
00:58:59,360 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 4: two point seven seven catches twenty eight yards on three

1216
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:04,760
Speaker 4: targets a game. That doesn't sound great, but before that

1217
00:59:05,240 --> 00:59:07,520
Speaker 4: one point two catches for nine yards a game, so

1218
00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:10,560
Speaker 4: he's tripled his yardage, more than doubles his catches one

1219
00:59:10,640 --> 00:59:13,400
Speaker 4: point three targets up to three point one. We hit

1220
00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:16,760
Speaker 4: this against San fran Now Sharbonne is out, so that's

1221
00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:19,400
Speaker 4: even more Kenneth Walker. And again it kind of fits

1222
00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:21,440
Speaker 4: the script we talked about. If New England does get

1223
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:24,400
Speaker 4: some of that inside pressure, some quick outlets, some quick

1224
00:59:24,440 --> 00:59:27,720
Speaker 4: dumpoffs to Kenneth Walker makes sense. Patriots allowed the fifth

1225
00:59:27,800 --> 00:59:31,400
Speaker 4: most running back receptions on the season. Twelve running backs

1226
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:33,360
Speaker 4: had three or more catches. So let's get that from

1227
00:59:33,440 --> 00:59:36,440
Speaker 4: Kenneth Walker. Just three catches. That's the line over two

1228
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 4: and a half. It's minus one twenty. He's had three

1229
00:59:39,080 --> 00:59:42,160
Speaker 4: catches seven of the last ten games, and when he

1230
00:59:42,280 --> 00:59:45,560
Speaker 4: does have three catches, he averages thirty nine yards a game.

1231
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:48,200
Speaker 4: In those matchups with at least twenty nine yards all

1232
00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:50,520
Speaker 4: but one of them. Patriots allowed twenty nine or more

1233
00:59:50,560 --> 00:59:53,640
Speaker 4: yards to running back receiving seven times this year. So

1234
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:57,720
Speaker 4: the Walker escalator thirty receiving yards at plus one sixty

1235
00:59:58,120 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 4: and look, maybe we get one long breakaway, a little

1236
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 4: bit of an explosive there out of the backfield. Just

1237
01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:07,400
Speaker 4: three catches and hopefully he breaks that one and hits

1238
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:08,320
Speaker 4: her escalator there.

1239
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 3: That was kind of surprise Conference championship game. Halani and

1240
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:15,600
Speaker 3: kW had eight total targets in the game. So, I mean,

1241
01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:18,320
Speaker 3: they are definitely getting looks there. And someone had said

1242
01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:19,880
Speaker 3: to me this. I can't remember where I heard it,

1243
01:00:19,920 --> 01:00:22,920
Speaker 3: but you know, sometimes we overanalyze the Super Bowl, Like

1244
01:00:23,040 --> 01:00:25,760
Speaker 3: is Clint Kubiak really going to be like, Hey, we've

1245
01:00:25,800 --> 01:00:27,480
Speaker 3: made it to the Super Bowl, It's time to give

1246
01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:30,880
Speaker 3: the ball to George Halani. Like I do believe Kenneth

1247
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:33,280
Speaker 3: Walker is going to be the target in the running

1248
01:00:33,280 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 3: back game if he gets the looks and when he

1249
01:00:36,360 --> 01:00:39,360
Speaker 3: gets three plus targets. He's at three point eight receptions

1250
01:00:39,360 --> 01:00:42,680
Speaker 3: per game, and he is seventeen and three over two

1251
01:00:42,720 --> 01:00:45,120
Speaker 3: and a half receptions in his last twenty games with

1252
01:00:45,200 --> 01:00:48,600
Speaker 3: three plus targets. So if he gets the looks, almost

1253
01:00:48,680 --> 01:00:51,080
Speaker 3: a lock at seventeen out of twenty in that scenario.

1254
01:00:51,160 --> 01:00:53,240
Speaker 3: All right, time for our favorite player. What are you

1255
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:55,000
Speaker 3: doing with Rashid Shaheed?

1256
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:55,720
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1257
01:00:55,760 --> 01:00:57,680
Speaker 4: I still think this is the most fun bet you

1258
01:00:57,680 --> 01:01:00,520
Speaker 4: can make this super Bowl on caveat This was the

1259
01:01:00,520 --> 01:01:03,320
Speaker 4: most fun bet you can make on Camp Sunday. I

1260
01:01:03,320 --> 01:01:05,040
Speaker 4: didn't have a lot of fun. We got her one

1261
01:01:05,200 --> 01:01:07,880
Speaker 4: run and he ran for zero yards. We needed one

1262
01:01:08,160 --> 01:01:09,800
Speaker 4: and he had it. It was right there, and he

1263
01:01:09,840 --> 01:01:11,600
Speaker 4: just didn't want to hit, so we ran out of bounds.

1264
01:01:11,640 --> 01:01:15,360
Speaker 4: But we're going back again to Rashi Shiheed rushing over

1265
01:01:15,480 --> 01:01:17,440
Speaker 4: two and a half rushing yards. They moved it up

1266
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:20,040
Speaker 4: a little bit, but I still like this one. Shaheed

1267
01:01:20,360 --> 01:01:23,320
Speaker 4: has a rushing attempt in eight of eleven Seahawks games.

1268
01:01:23,320 --> 01:01:24,840
Speaker 4: I think they're using him a bit like the old

1269
01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:27,960
Speaker 4: Percy Harvin. He's gone over two and a half rushing

1270
01:01:28,040 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 4: yards five of the eleven, so not quite half, but

1271
01:01:31,320 --> 01:01:33,240
Speaker 4: that includes a two yard game and of course the

1272
01:01:33,360 --> 01:01:35,840
Speaker 4: zero last game, so you're a couple of yards away

1273
01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:39,680
Speaker 4: from hitting. He's had four double digit runs, a thirty

1274
01:01:39,680 --> 01:01:41,760
Speaker 4: and a thirty one among them. And by the way,

1275
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 4: guess what NFL team has allowed the most rushing yards

1276
01:01:45,080 --> 01:01:46,320
Speaker 4: to receivers this season?

1277
01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:47,320
Speaker 2: Ding, ding ding.

1278
01:01:47,480 --> 01:01:50,200
Speaker 4: It's the Patriots one hundred and forty nine. Kind of

1279
01:01:50,240 --> 01:01:52,640
Speaker 4: a goofy staff, but they do have allowed the six

1280
01:01:52,800 --> 01:01:56,040
Speaker 4: most rushing attempts to receivers as well, and a receiver

1281
01:01:56,160 --> 01:01:58,480
Speaker 4: has gone over two and a half rushing yards ten

1282
01:01:58,520 --> 01:02:01,920
Speaker 4: of seventeen games in season gets the Patriots. That's not nothing,

1283
01:02:01,960 --> 01:02:06,480
Speaker 4: including seven double digit runs to a wide receiver plus

1284
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:10,320
Speaker 4: the thirty one. So I want Rashichi Heed longest rush.

1285
01:02:10,400 --> 01:02:12,400
Speaker 4: I want the ten to twenty, the thirty. I haven't

1286
01:02:12,440 --> 01:02:15,280
Speaker 4: found it anywhere. If you find it, maybe it'll post.

1287
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:17,959
Speaker 4: By the super Bowl we may add that, but over

1288
01:02:18,040 --> 01:02:21,160
Speaker 4: two and a half rushing yards. Look, why is this

1289
01:02:21,240 --> 01:02:23,280
Speaker 4: the most fun bet? It's because you're gonna be a

1290
01:02:23,360 --> 01:02:26,320
Speaker 4: Super Bowl party, eating your your tostitos and dipping your

1291
01:02:26,320 --> 01:02:30,200
Speaker 4: dips and enjoying the commercials. One play the whole game,

1292
01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:33,920
Speaker 4: that's what we're waiting for. One gadget play, one end around,

1293
01:02:33,960 --> 01:02:36,600
Speaker 4: one run. We're probably getting one chance at it, that

1294
01:02:36,720 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 4: one run when she heed he's got the green shoes.

1295
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:42,160
Speaker 4: You're gonna be watching him on every play when he

1296
01:02:42,200 --> 01:02:44,280
Speaker 4: loops around and gets the ball and you know this

1297
01:02:44,320 --> 01:02:45,520
Speaker 4: is it, this is my play.

1298
01:02:45,560 --> 01:02:46,600
Speaker 2: I need three yards.

1299
01:02:47,000 --> 01:02:50,160
Speaker 4: Like the adrenaline rush in that moment is crazy and

1300
01:02:50,200 --> 01:02:53,040
Speaker 4: a little escalator for you. At DraftKings, you can bet

1301
01:02:53,080 --> 01:02:55,000
Speaker 4: your heat for the longest run of the game at

1302
01:02:55,000 --> 01:02:57,560
Speaker 4: thirty to one. I think that's a crazy number. As

1303
01:02:57,600 --> 01:02:59,960
Speaker 4: speedy as he is, even if he only gets one

1304
01:03:00,080 --> 01:03:01,920
Speaker 4: shot at it. We've seen New England give up some

1305
01:03:01,960 --> 01:03:05,520
Speaker 4: big receiver runs. We don't expect any team to run

1306
01:03:05,600 --> 01:03:08,720
Speaker 4: much in this game. Walker's longest run is often like

1307
01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:11,959
Speaker 4: fifteen to twenty Ramandri Stevenson is usually even a little

1308
01:03:11,960 --> 01:03:14,120
Speaker 4: bit below that. We might hit this with like an

1309
01:03:14,120 --> 01:03:17,680
Speaker 4: eighteen or twenty yard run from a Shaheed. So that's

1310
01:03:17,720 --> 01:03:19,880
Speaker 4: the most fun bet you can make on the Super

1311
01:03:19,920 --> 01:03:22,680
Speaker 4: Bowl one play, you better get the run and this

1312
01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:24,240
Speaker 4: time you better make it count.

1313
01:03:24,720 --> 01:03:26,680
Speaker 3: I mean, listen, you look at snaps at running backs.

1314
01:03:26,680 --> 01:03:28,920
Speaker 3: She heated ten in the conference championship and nine in

1315
01:03:28,960 --> 01:03:32,320
Speaker 3: the divisional rounds, so obviously without Sharbonay back there, it's

1316
01:03:32,320 --> 01:03:34,720
Speaker 3: something they're looking to do. I was curious about your

1317
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:37,040
Speaker 3: thought on this. Have you looked at players with a

1318
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:40,400
Speaker 3: rush attempt? It's at seven and a half, it's been

1319
01:03:40,480 --> 01:03:42,959
Speaker 3: juiced up, it's now minus one eighty to the over,

1320
01:03:43,280 --> 01:03:45,520
Speaker 3: plus one forty to the under. Is that something you've

1321
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:46,160
Speaker 3: even looked at.

1322
01:03:46,800 --> 01:03:48,280
Speaker 2: I looked briefly at those.

1323
01:03:48,320 --> 01:03:50,360
Speaker 4: You know, there are so many markets in these islod

1324
01:03:50,440 --> 01:03:52,360
Speaker 4: is Like, okay, so well let's just talk it through it.

1325
01:03:52,440 --> 01:03:54,800
Speaker 4: So we know Walker, probably Holani is going to get

1326
01:03:54,800 --> 01:03:59,280
Speaker 4: our rush. Both quarterbacks Stevenson, I'm assuming Trevian Henderson. Oh,

1327
01:03:59,280 --> 01:04:01,880
Speaker 4: they only played a few snaps last game. So there's

1328
01:04:02,000 --> 01:04:05,320
Speaker 4: six and then rashiitia Head gets a rushing attempt. I

1329
01:04:05,320 --> 01:04:07,560
Speaker 4: think some books even have Seattle players to get a

1330
01:04:07,640 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 4: rushing attempt, so it seems like it's in play that way.

1331
01:04:10,680 --> 01:04:12,680
Speaker 4: Do we need over six and a half or over

1332
01:04:12,720 --> 01:04:13,160
Speaker 4: seven and a half?

1333
01:04:13,160 --> 01:04:15,520
Speaker 3: All is the number seven and a half, And I

1334
01:04:15,560 --> 01:04:18,360
Speaker 3: think the difference is like, does a wide receiver for

1335
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:23,280
Speaker 3: Seattle plus Barner? And that's probably what you need is

1336
01:04:23,320 --> 01:04:26,120
Speaker 3: Barner as well. I was only bringing it up because

1337
01:04:26,160 --> 01:04:28,240
Speaker 3: I kind of liked under seven and a half because

1338
01:04:28,240 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 3: I actually do believe it's either going to be a

1339
01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:35,040
Speaker 3: wide receiver or Barner. Not necessarily sure you get both.

1340
01:04:35,320 --> 01:04:37,560
Speaker 3: And then there's the ability like does Henderson get it?

1341
01:04:37,760 --> 01:04:40,640
Speaker 3: Does Halani get it? Like there's there's an out, And

1342
01:04:40,720 --> 01:04:42,760
Speaker 3: I think it's been juiced up a little bit too much,

1343
01:04:42,800 --> 01:04:43,720
Speaker 3: but I figured i'd.

1344
01:04:43,520 --> 01:04:46,160
Speaker 4: Ask, yeah, well, you know, Darnold, no one necessarily get

1345
01:04:46,160 --> 01:04:48,440
Speaker 4: a run. He might get some kneel downs at the end,

1346
01:04:48,480 --> 01:04:51,439
Speaker 4: but otherwise it's not exactly a running quarterback. Drake's gonna

1347
01:04:51,480 --> 01:04:54,840
Speaker 4: get one. Henderson maybe just doesn't get the snaps anymore,

1348
01:04:55,160 --> 01:04:57,880
Speaker 4: you get early injury. Like That's why I looked at

1349
01:04:57,880 --> 01:05:00,120
Speaker 4: that and was like, ah, I don't know enough, and

1350
01:05:00,120 --> 01:05:02,440
Speaker 4: I can't research every one of these bets. What do

1351
01:05:02,480 --> 01:05:05,400
Speaker 4: we give out like twenty beats already on this podcast anyway,

1352
01:05:05,560 --> 01:05:08,600
Speaker 4: So speaking of which, I've given out all ball one

1353
01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:10,640
Speaker 4: of mine. But I know you have some fun one

1354
01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:12,640
Speaker 4: some long shots to get us out of here. So

1355
01:05:12,760 --> 01:05:13,680
Speaker 4: what's on your radar?

1356
01:05:14,480 --> 01:05:16,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, these are just some crazy ones because it is

1357
01:05:16,360 --> 01:05:18,760
Speaker 3: Super Bowl time and you can dive in whenever you'd like.

1358
01:05:18,800 --> 01:05:21,840
Speaker 3: Give me what your thought is, but total yards on touchdowns,

1359
01:05:21,920 --> 01:05:24,560
Speaker 3: I was leaning under sixty eight and a half. I

1360
01:05:24,680 --> 01:05:27,160
Speaker 3: like a most of us like the under. Most of

1361
01:05:27,240 --> 01:05:29,960
Speaker 3: us really like both of these defenses. I do feel

1362
01:05:30,000 --> 01:05:32,000
Speaker 3: like there isn't going to be a long one in

1363
01:05:32,040 --> 01:05:34,080
Speaker 3: this game, so I thought sixty eight and a half

1364
01:05:34,200 --> 01:05:37,800
Speaker 3: was a lot high. Next, I like Seattle time of

1365
01:05:37,880 --> 01:05:40,320
Speaker 3: possession in this game. I think if you like them

1366
01:05:40,320 --> 01:05:43,040
Speaker 3: to win, it's only minus one twenty five, so you

1367
01:05:43,120 --> 01:05:45,480
Speaker 3: hold the ball, you run the ball. I think there's

1368
01:05:45,520 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 3: a lot of ways for Seattle to make that mark.

1369
01:05:47,600 --> 01:05:49,000
Speaker 3: So that was one I liked as well.

1370
01:05:50,200 --> 01:05:51,000
Speaker 1: The other one.

1371
01:05:50,880 --> 01:05:54,720
Speaker 3: First touchdown Jersey number under eleven and a half minus

1372
01:05:54,800 --> 01:05:58,080
Speaker 3: one thirty. Get a lot of options there, including JSN

1373
01:05:58,320 --> 01:06:00,240
Speaker 3: under eleven and a half in that game. Obviously, I

1374
01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:03,120
Speaker 3: think Stevenson's over that. It's obviously some options over, but

1375
01:06:03,440 --> 01:06:04,919
Speaker 3: I think you get enough on the under.

1376
01:06:04,960 --> 01:06:07,840
Speaker 1: So I like the under there how much.

1377
01:06:07,680 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 4: A thing because I've seen that exact market at ten

1378
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:13,680
Speaker 4: and a half, So you could almost like, I don't

1379
01:06:13,680 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 4: know if it's flipped everywhere, but you could almost middle

1380
01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:18,400
Speaker 4: that one. If you think jsm's the first touchdown, you

1381
01:06:18,400 --> 01:06:20,520
Speaker 4: could try to go both sides of that, and if

1382
01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:23,800
Speaker 4: it's number eleven that scores, you get both of those correct.

1383
01:06:23,840 --> 01:06:25,480
Speaker 3: I saw a ten and a half, looked at a

1384
01:06:25,480 --> 01:06:28,080
Speaker 3: few other books some shots, I saw eleven and a half.

1385
01:06:28,120 --> 01:06:30,840
Speaker 3: To me that that's a huge difference, especially at my

1386
01:06:30,920 --> 01:06:34,120
Speaker 3: only minus one thirty. Another fun one, I kind of like,

1387
01:06:34,200 --> 01:06:36,480
Speaker 3: and maybe I'm just buying into the Super Bowl hype,

1388
01:06:36,520 --> 01:06:38,600
Speaker 3: but over two and a half players to throw a

1389
01:06:38,640 --> 01:06:41,520
Speaker 3: pass in the game, it's sitting there at plus one sixty,

1390
01:06:42,360 --> 01:06:45,160
Speaker 3: and I just feel like, given this scenario, and you

1391
01:06:45,200 --> 01:06:48,400
Speaker 3: know what honestly could happen, You get Shahed, you get

1392
01:06:48,440 --> 01:06:51,280
Speaker 3: Cooper Cup, you get one of those guys who's supposed

1393
01:06:51,320 --> 01:06:53,240
Speaker 3: to run the ball and ends up passing it. Like

1394
01:06:53,280 --> 01:06:55,800
Speaker 3: there are a few ways for this to kind of

1395
01:06:55,800 --> 01:06:58,640
Speaker 3: get the over and I believe it's plus one sixty

1396
01:06:58,680 --> 01:07:01,919
Speaker 3: on DraftKings and it's one of the highest prices I've seen.

1397
01:07:02,080 --> 01:07:05,280
Speaker 3: So I thought that was an interesting one. And then

1398
01:07:05,280 --> 01:07:08,360
Speaker 3: I've got one more. And then some MVP stuff you

1399
01:07:08,360 --> 01:07:12,080
Speaker 3: were talking about Rashid Shahed. I think first player at

1400
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:15,920
Speaker 3: twenty plus receiving yards, Shaheed is thirteen to one. Like,

1401
01:07:16,280 --> 01:07:18,920
Speaker 3: I think there is a chance early in this game

1402
01:07:19,360 --> 01:07:22,040
Speaker 3: they look downfield for Shaheed. They did it in the

1403
01:07:22,080 --> 01:07:26,320
Speaker 3: Conference championship, and I do believe in early past to him,

1404
01:07:26,520 --> 01:07:29,680
Speaker 3: especially when Jasn's getting all the attention, and I just

1405
01:07:29,840 --> 01:07:31,960
Speaker 3: you know a lot of people talking Jake Bobo and

1406
01:07:32,000 --> 01:07:32,360
Speaker 3: this and that.

1407
01:07:32,640 --> 01:07:33,720
Speaker 1: I think they don't want.

1408
01:07:33,600 --> 01:07:36,920
Speaker 3: To take Shahed's speed off the field. So first player

1409
01:07:37,080 --> 01:07:39,800
Speaker 3: twenty plus receiving yards at thirteen to one. And then

1410
01:07:40,120 --> 01:07:44,320
Speaker 3: I had some MVP thoughts, so Drake may and this

1411
01:07:44,880 --> 01:07:47,040
Speaker 3: is out there. There's a bunch of combinations at books

1412
01:07:47,080 --> 01:07:49,840
Speaker 3: Drake made to score a touchdown and win MVP, which

1413
01:07:49,880 --> 01:07:53,040
Speaker 3: you can't do normally but is combined is ten to one.

1414
01:07:54,040 --> 01:07:57,840
Speaker 3: And then shahed first touchdown at MVP is one hundred

1415
01:07:57,920 --> 01:08:00,440
Speaker 3: to one. Now right now, he's only third to one

1416
01:08:00,480 --> 01:08:03,040
Speaker 3: to an MVP. So he takes the he takes a

1417
01:08:03,040 --> 01:08:05,680
Speaker 3: punt back, he gets like a big touchdown. That's one

1418
01:08:05,760 --> 01:08:08,000
Speaker 3: hundred to one. Then this is the one I really like.

1419
01:08:08,120 --> 01:08:10,640
Speaker 3: We talked about JSN before. For him to get the

1420
01:08:10,640 --> 01:08:13,400
Speaker 3: first touchdown in one MVP is twenty five to one.

1421
01:08:13,760 --> 01:08:16,479
Speaker 3: Right now, now you're talking about only five to one

1422
01:08:16,600 --> 01:08:18,680
Speaker 3: or so to an MVP. I know a lot of

1423
01:08:18,720 --> 01:08:20,800
Speaker 3: people are gonna bet him score the first touchdown, So

1424
01:08:21,120 --> 01:08:23,479
Speaker 3: twenty five to one in that market feels like a

1425
01:08:23,560 --> 01:08:24,160
Speaker 3: great nibble.

1426
01:08:24,840 --> 01:08:25,000
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1427
01:08:25,080 --> 01:08:27,679
Speaker 4: I really like those markets that I've seen, the combined

1428
01:08:27,720 --> 01:08:29,000
Speaker 4: ones where it's you kind of get to.

1429
01:08:28,920 --> 01:08:31,200
Speaker 2: Build your script of why are you the MVP? What

1430
01:08:31,280 --> 01:08:31,720
Speaker 2: did you do?

1431
01:08:31,840 --> 01:08:34,520
Speaker 4: Did you set the tone early with the first touchdown?

1432
01:08:34,840 --> 01:08:37,479
Speaker 4: Did you get multiple touchdowns? Is it Drake and you

1433
01:08:37,560 --> 01:08:40,040
Speaker 4: ran the touchdown in You can imagine that one being

1434
01:08:40,160 --> 01:08:42,160
Speaker 4: up last year for Jalen Hurts, and it's just like

1435
01:08:42,200 --> 01:08:44,800
Speaker 4: a no brainer to add in the anytime touchdown. So

1436
01:08:44,880 --> 01:08:46,879
Speaker 4: I like those you get to kind of build a script.

1437
01:08:47,160 --> 01:08:49,880
Speaker 4: And I thought of one other thing. Rashiiti hit. I

1438
01:08:49,920 --> 01:08:51,720
Speaker 4: do believe he hit that one last game. They had

1439
01:08:51,720 --> 01:08:54,320
Speaker 4: the big long pass early the other thing I remembered.

1440
01:08:54,560 --> 01:08:57,520
Speaker 4: We finally got her one to run last game, immediately

1441
01:08:57,560 --> 01:09:00,559
Speaker 4: after a special team's return Porsha. He is just been

1442
01:09:00,720 --> 01:09:03,360
Speaker 4: running all over the field and then he's like coming around.

1443
01:09:03,400 --> 01:09:05,360
Speaker 4: I'm like, they're not handing up. No, this is our

1444
01:09:05,439 --> 01:09:08,200
Speaker 4: one run right now, So please script the game a

1445
01:09:08,200 --> 01:09:10,640
Speaker 4: little better. Don't have your kick returner go on the

1446
01:09:10,720 --> 01:09:12,680
Speaker 4: very next play on the one run you're giving him.

1447
01:09:12,720 --> 01:09:16,479
Speaker 4: But I like some of the weird play stuff here.

1448
01:09:16,520 --> 01:09:18,400
Speaker 4: I like I always look at the over two and

1449
01:09:18,439 --> 01:09:21,880
Speaker 4: a half guys to throw a pass. Josh McDaniels, he's

1450
01:09:21,880 --> 01:09:24,559
Speaker 4: been here before. He's gonna have some goofy stuff drawn up.

1451
01:09:24,840 --> 01:09:27,479
Speaker 4: I think the Patriots will play like the underdog, so

1452
01:09:27,560 --> 01:09:29,920
Speaker 4: you might get the you know, a flea flicker. That

1453
01:09:30,000 --> 01:09:33,360
Speaker 4: one doesn't really count for the overpassing a reverse pass

1454
01:09:33,720 --> 01:09:37,040
Speaker 4: a Philly Philly. The reason I'm always hesitant to bet

1455
01:09:37,280 --> 01:09:39,840
Speaker 4: the over two and a half passers. I'm afraid I'm

1456
01:09:39,840 --> 01:09:42,439
Speaker 4: going to cash that one and celebrate on a two

1457
01:09:42,479 --> 01:09:44,800
Speaker 4: point conversion on like the Philly phil play, and then

1458
01:09:44,840 --> 01:09:46,599
Speaker 4: it's not going to count for me because you know,

1459
01:09:46,800 --> 01:09:48,639
Speaker 4: you know, they're not counting that one for us.

1460
01:09:49,120 --> 01:09:52,360
Speaker 2: So let's hope to god that's not the way she hed.

1461
01:09:52,439 --> 01:09:55,200
Speaker 4: Touchdown we get is off the two point conversion instead

1462
01:09:56,320 --> 01:09:57,880
Speaker 4: one other one. I didn't have my notes, but I

1463
01:09:57,920 --> 01:10:00,559
Speaker 4: do like, of course, because the last time these teams

1464
01:10:00,600 --> 01:10:02,559
Speaker 4: playing in the Super Bowl, we saw how it ended,

1465
01:10:02,640 --> 01:10:05,840
Speaker 4: the one yard pass at the goal line and the interception.

1466
01:10:06,280 --> 01:10:10,000
Speaker 4: At most books you can bet on will Seattle throw

1467
01:10:10,040 --> 01:10:12,479
Speaker 4: a pass from the one yard line? Will they complete

1468
01:10:12,479 --> 01:10:14,000
Speaker 4: a pass from the one yard line? Will they throw

1469
01:10:14,000 --> 01:10:16,160
Speaker 4: an interception at the one yard line? Well, there's a

1470
01:10:16,200 --> 01:10:18,439
Speaker 4: book that has Seattle to throw a pass ten to

1471
01:10:18,520 --> 01:10:21,200
Speaker 4: one from the one yard line. I didn't do the

1472
01:10:21,240 --> 01:10:23,720
Speaker 4: math on it. That does not check out to me, Like,

1473
01:10:23,920 --> 01:10:27,280
Speaker 4: you get a pass interference in the end zone, balls

1474
01:10:27,280 --> 01:10:30,000
Speaker 4: at the one, you get a run, stuffed balls at

1475
01:10:30,000 --> 01:10:32,920
Speaker 4: the one. You can't tell me the fact that they

1476
01:10:32,920 --> 01:10:36,200
Speaker 4: threw an interception and a totally different regime, different team,

1477
01:10:36,240 --> 01:10:38,920
Speaker 4: different ear Like that's no bearing whatsoever.

1478
01:10:39,320 --> 01:10:41,719
Speaker 1: Darnold's also not a sneaker. He doesn't sneak.

1479
01:10:41,800 --> 01:10:45,479
Speaker 4: You're right, you're right. Yeah, So I like that one

1480
01:10:45,520 --> 01:10:47,400
Speaker 4: ten to one. We'll throw that in then my other

1481
01:10:47,479 --> 01:10:50,519
Speaker 4: goofy one just to finish us up. Blue to be

1482
01:10:50,640 --> 01:10:53,360
Speaker 4: the color of Gatorade on the Super Bowl winning coach

1483
01:10:53,680 --> 01:10:56,599
Speaker 4: at plus two ninety. I'll make a real case for it.

1484
01:10:56,960 --> 01:10:59,160
Speaker 4: Orange is the favorite here. I don't really know why

1485
01:10:59,200 --> 01:11:01,080
Speaker 4: orange has not been the color of Gatorade any of

1486
01:11:01,120 --> 01:11:03,840
Speaker 4: the last five. I think it's the favorite because it

1487
01:11:04,040 --> 01:11:06,479
Speaker 4: was the color gatorade the last time Seattle won Super

1488
01:11:06,479 --> 01:11:10,040
Speaker 4: Bowl in twenty fourteen, and they're the favorites. But the

1489
01:11:10,080 --> 01:11:13,640
Speaker 4: Patriots use blue in their last two wins Gatorade and

1490
01:11:13,720 --> 01:11:15,479
Speaker 4: Blue has hit three of the last seven Super Bowls.

1491
01:11:15,520 --> 01:11:17,960
Speaker 4: And by the way, both of the teams are blue,

1492
01:11:18,000 --> 01:11:19,840
Speaker 4: so I don't think Blue should be thirding odds. I

1493
01:11:19,880 --> 01:11:22,639
Speaker 4: think Blue is the favorite plus two and ninety bets.

1494
01:11:22,680 --> 01:11:24,400
Speaker 4: Some Gatorade don't go crazy with U.

1495
01:11:25,200 --> 01:11:28,240
Speaker 3: I believe highest tickets and money at DraftKings on this

1496
01:11:28,320 --> 01:11:32,960
Speaker 3: market is the yellow green option because people are assuming that.

1497
01:11:33,040 --> 01:11:35,800
Speaker 3: But it's interesting people are assuming that with Seattle, but

1498
01:11:35,840 --> 01:11:36,759
Speaker 3: you're right with Blue.

1499
01:11:36,800 --> 01:11:38,360
Speaker 1: It kind of covers both teams.

1500
01:11:38,680 --> 01:11:41,240
Speaker 3: I think the two sharp bets are Blue and clear,

1501
01:11:42,200 --> 01:11:43,880
Speaker 3: so we'll see what happens.

1502
01:11:43,880 --> 01:11:44,960
Speaker 1: But what else you got?

1503
01:11:46,160 --> 01:11:48,400
Speaker 4: I've got just a look ahead here for next year's

1504
01:11:48,400 --> 01:11:50,280
Speaker 4: Super Bowl. Do you have anything else on this year?

1505
01:11:50,320 --> 01:11:51,479
Speaker 4: Before we get to that one.

1506
01:11:52,080 --> 01:11:54,360
Speaker 1: No, I think it's time to talk super Bowl sixty one.

1507
01:11:55,080 --> 01:11:57,800
Speaker 4: All right, super Bowl sixty one, twenty twenty seven. I

1508
01:11:57,840 --> 01:11:59,320
Speaker 4: don't even know where the super Bowl is next You

1509
01:11:59,360 --> 01:12:00,519
Speaker 4: know where the super Bowl next year?

1510
01:12:00,600 --> 01:12:03,559
Speaker 1: Yet I don't. It might be Los Angeles.

1511
01:12:03,600 --> 01:12:05,599
Speaker 3: I feel like I remember it being in California as well,

1512
01:12:05,600 --> 01:12:06,320
Speaker 3: but maybe I'm wrong.

1513
01:12:06,720 --> 01:12:07,120
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1514
01:12:07,160 --> 01:12:07,519
Speaker 1: I don't know.

1515
01:12:07,680 --> 01:12:09,880
Speaker 4: Is every year the first bet I make is right

1516
01:12:09,880 --> 01:12:12,360
Speaker 4: around this time, and I always kind of say, Okay,

1517
01:12:12,640 --> 01:12:15,559
Speaker 4: who is next year Seahawks? Who are next year's Patriots?

1518
01:12:15,560 --> 01:12:17,479
Speaker 4: Who are those teams? So a couple of years ago,

1519
01:12:17,880 --> 01:12:20,360
Speaker 4: coming out of the Super Bowl, we went Eagles seventeen

1520
01:12:20,400 --> 01:12:22,960
Speaker 4: to one, as the next Ravens at the time they

1521
01:12:22,960 --> 01:12:26,160
Speaker 4: got the coaching refresh. We hit that last year. Last

1522
01:12:26,240 --> 01:12:28,559
Speaker 4: year at this time we went Seahawks. We went forty

1523
01:12:28,640 --> 01:12:30,439
Speaker 4: nine ers too. I think that was a good bet.

1524
01:12:30,479 --> 01:12:33,519
Speaker 4: Twenty to one didn't come home. Seahawks seventy to one.

1525
01:12:33,920 --> 01:12:36,960
Speaker 4: I had as a Vikings NFC one seed type blueprint,

1526
01:12:37,120 --> 01:12:40,559
Speaker 4: an outcast quarterback which I thought was Gino Smith. Turns

1527
01:12:40,560 --> 01:12:43,000
Speaker 4: out Sam Darnold, We'll take it.

1528
01:12:43,000 --> 01:12:43,679
Speaker 2: It got here.

1529
01:12:43,760 --> 01:12:45,680
Speaker 4: We got one more shot at this seventy to one

1530
01:12:45,720 --> 01:12:48,559
Speaker 4: less hope it comes home. Here's my early pick for

1531
01:12:48,680 --> 01:12:52,439
Speaker 4: next season. Next year's Rams, I think are right there

1532
01:12:52,479 --> 01:12:55,519
Speaker 4: in Los Angeles. I think it's the LA Chargers. You

1533
01:12:55,560 --> 01:12:59,479
Speaker 4: get a possible elite balanced offense that can run past

1534
01:12:59,520 --> 01:13:03,920
Speaker 4: the ball, MVP quarterback type caliber play, a great coach,

1535
01:13:04,040 --> 01:13:06,880
Speaker 4: a defense that rises up, and the main things here

1536
01:13:07,240 --> 01:13:11,640
Speaker 4: are the offensive line and the offensive coordinator. So Mike McDaniel,

1537
01:13:12,400 --> 01:13:14,519
Speaker 4: My eyes is lit up. When you're bringing in Mike

1538
01:13:14,600 --> 01:13:18,719
Speaker 4: McDaniel to replace Greg Roman, Holy smoked. You can't really

1539
01:13:18,800 --> 01:13:21,719
Speaker 4: go from a worse to a better in that scenario,

1540
01:13:21,720 --> 01:13:23,880
Speaker 4: and I think it probably takes some time because it's

1541
01:13:23,880 --> 01:13:27,360
Speaker 4: a very different offense. But combined, that offensive coordinator, to me,

1542
01:13:27,840 --> 01:13:30,959
Speaker 4: is a multiplayer. It's a force multiplayer that makes everything

1543
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:34,559
Speaker 4: better around you. So you have one limiting factor with

1544
01:13:34,680 --> 01:13:38,120
Speaker 4: Greg Roman, and now you have this explosion factor with McDaniel,

1545
01:13:38,200 --> 01:13:41,160
Speaker 4: and you also have an offensive line that end of

1546
01:13:41,160 --> 01:13:43,759
Speaker 4: the year worst in the league in my opinion, bringing

1547
01:13:43,840 --> 01:13:47,639
Speaker 4: back maybe the two best tackle combination in football, Joe Alton,

1548
01:13:47,720 --> 01:13:50,800
Speaker 4: Rashaan Slater. And we all know we're going to get

1549
01:13:50,840 --> 01:13:53,840
Speaker 4: back to August. The first podcast we do are going

1550
01:13:53,880 --> 01:13:56,960
Speaker 4: to be ranked. The coaches ranked. The offensive lines. Coaching

1551
01:13:57,000 --> 01:14:00,200
Speaker 4: and trenches are my biggest edge on the market, no

1552
01:14:00,320 --> 01:14:03,960
Speaker 4: bigger edge. And swing from worst offensive line in the

1553
01:14:04,040 --> 01:14:07,200
Speaker 4: league to one of the best, probably top five, and

1554
01:14:07,280 --> 01:14:09,080
Speaker 4: one of the worst play callers in the league to

1555
01:14:09,479 --> 01:14:12,280
Speaker 4: one of the best offensive callers as well. I put

1556
01:14:12,320 --> 01:14:16,560
Speaker 4: those marks into my big spreadsheet. That alone jumped the

1557
01:14:16,680 --> 01:14:20,280
Speaker 4: Chargers from like middle of the league offensively to basically

1558
01:14:20,320 --> 01:14:22,800
Speaker 4: even with the Rams number one. That's how big of

1559
01:14:22,800 --> 01:14:25,840
Speaker 4: a jump it was. They're number one overall now they

1560
01:14:25,880 --> 01:14:29,720
Speaker 4: were including Jesse Minter and Nastretch who's now gone chrys

1561
01:14:29,800 --> 01:14:31,439
Speaker 4: So Leary's a new play caller that's going to be

1562
01:14:31,439 --> 01:14:34,160
Speaker 4: probably a downgrade. But I like Crystal Leary. He's pretty

1563
01:14:34,160 --> 01:14:37,560
Speaker 4: good with Notre Dame. He's a secondary guy. And bonus

1564
01:14:38,080 --> 01:14:40,799
Speaker 4: Patrick mahomes off an injury, bo nicks off an injury.

1565
01:14:41,040 --> 01:14:43,920
Speaker 4: The division sets up well for the Chargers too. It's

1566
01:14:44,080 --> 01:14:47,439
Speaker 4: twenty to one. Adding the Chargers are next year's Rams,

1567
01:14:47,720 --> 01:14:49,639
Speaker 4: and hopefully they actually make the Super.

1568
01:14:49,479 --> 01:14:50,760
Speaker 2: Bowl in that one. Did you look it up?

1569
01:14:50,840 --> 01:14:51,280
Speaker 1: Is it LA?

1570
01:14:51,400 --> 01:14:52,800
Speaker 2: So we could get a home super Bowl too.

1571
01:14:53,560 --> 01:14:55,519
Speaker 3: I was just gonna say, now that it's at Sofi.

1572
01:14:55,720 --> 01:14:58,519
Speaker 3: So we're taking the Chargers to win the Super Bowl

1573
01:14:58,680 --> 01:15:01,479
Speaker 3: at home and listen to the rams ie, you know,

1574
01:15:01,680 --> 01:15:02,920
Speaker 3: we almost got there this year.

1575
01:15:03,000 --> 01:15:05,760
Speaker 1: So we'll take the Chargers on the AFC side Chargers.

1576
01:15:05,360 --> 01:15:08,120
Speaker 4: At home with the home field penalty as I often

1577
01:15:08,160 --> 01:15:10,280
Speaker 4: give them at Sofi Stadium. So I'm not sure if

1578
01:15:10,280 --> 01:15:12,479
Speaker 4: that's good or bad for our bet. Well, we'll go

1579
01:15:12,520 --> 01:15:14,679
Speaker 4: out with Chargers twenty to one either way for twenty

1580
01:15:14,680 --> 01:15:15,280
Speaker 4: twenty seven.

1581
01:15:16,160 --> 01:15:18,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing like ending the pod with blue Gatorade and

1582
01:15:18,920 --> 01:15:19,640
Speaker 3: the Chargers.

1583
01:15:20,120 --> 01:15:21,120
Speaker 1: All right, that'll do it.

1584
01:15:21,160 --> 01:15:23,320
Speaker 3: Here on the Action Ork podcast for our Super Bowl

1585
01:15:23,400 --> 01:15:27,160
Speaker 3: sixty Best Bets episode presented by DraftKings. If you want

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01:15:27,200 --> 01:15:30,479
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Speaker 3: slash bet now. Thank you for listening all season long,

1598
01:16:02,200 --> 01:16:04,680
Speaker 3: enjoyed the Super Bowl, and good luck with all your

1599
01:16:04,680 --> 01:16:23,200
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1600
01:16:24,479 --> 01:16:29,040
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