1 00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:08,239 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg to Washington, d C. 2 00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomber to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hundred, to San Francisco, Bloomberg 3 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,439 Speaker 1: nine six, to the countries, US Exam General one nineteen 4 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 1: and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus happened Bloomberg 5 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:25,240 Speaker 1: dot com. This is taking Stock. Coming up on taking stock, 6 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,640 Speaker 1: Will We're speaking with Mark Vintner. He is a senior 7 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: economist at Wells Fargo Securities. The topic, of course, the 8 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 1: US economy and what it means for your investments. We've 9 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: got more that's coming up right now. We've got more 10 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 1: from Charlie Pellett. He is in the Bloomberg news Room, 11 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:42,599 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business Flash, and I thank you very much, 12 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: pim Fox. We are looking at a down day here 13 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,599 Speaker 1: off our session lows, but the doal, the SMP and NASDAK, 14 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:51,160 Speaker 1: they are all declining right now. The SMP five hundred 15 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: index down ten point cent seven, a drop there of 16 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 1: five tenths of one percent. NASDAK is down thirteen, a 17 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: drop of three tenths of one percent, and downwind us 18 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 1: reels down nine. He won a decline of five tenths 19 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: of one percent. Investors are awaiting next week's Federal Reserve meeting, 20 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: with economic indicators pointing to uneven growth in the US economy. 21 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: Next Wednesday, of course, we do get the Fed decision. 22 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: There's also a closely watched Bank of Japan meeting at 23 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:22,320 Speaker 1: which it will issue a monetary policy statement. Abraham Rabari 24 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: is an economist at City Group Global Markets, and he 25 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 1: was interviewed this morning on Bloomberg Television. Even when we 26 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,399 Speaker 1: think about helicopter money, there has of course been a 27 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: gradual move towards a much bigger monetary support for allowing 28 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 1: at least fiscal emphasis to remain very large, even if 29 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 1: they are not expanding in in most countries. So again, 30 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 1: I think we're talking about gradual changes. But nevertheless, those 31 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: gradual changes over time can be quite significant, and I 32 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 1: think they could well be significant in the way that 33 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 1: they would They would end up allowing for a bigger 34 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus than we've seen today. Banks and energy producers 35 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: carrying the steepest losses today, Crude oil sinking to a 36 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: one month low. West Texas Intermediate down one point nine 37 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: percent forty three oh eight for a barrel of w 38 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 1: t I. Brent is also down by one point nine percent. 39 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,239 Speaker 1: Sentiments souring on lenders as Deutsche Bank sparks to sell 40 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 1: off in European banks after it rebuffed the Department of 41 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 1: Justice offer to settle a financial crisis related probe for 42 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: fourteen billion dollars shares the Deutsche Bank. They're plunging today 43 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 1: by nine and a half percent. Gold down six twenty, 44 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,639 Speaker 1: the ounce declining five tenths of one percent, the tenure 45 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 1: down three thirty seconds, yield one point seven percent. SMP 46 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 1: five hundred index down ten, a drop there of five 47 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 1: tenths of one percent to thirty two on Wall Street. Now, 48 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 1: let's take a look at some of the other stories 49 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 1: making news from around the world. Thank you, Charlie from 50 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:49,080 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Newsroom. I'm Scarlet Fou. Speaking at the Black 51 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 1: Women's Agenda symposium today, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton told 52 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 1: the audience why she chose to get into the presidential race. 53 00:02:56,480 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 1: I would not have run again for president. I would 54 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:04,839 Speaker 1: not deal with all the incoming brick bats that are 55 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: hurled my way if I did not, in my heart 56 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: believe with every fiber of my being that together we 57 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 1: can build a future where yes love Trump's hate He's 58 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:23,959 Speaker 1: not a whistleblower. That's what a new congressional report is 59 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 1: saying about National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowdon. Bloomberg's Nathan 60 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: Hagar has more. The report is signed by every member 61 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 1: of the House Intelligence Committee, Republicans and Democrats alike. It 62 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: calls Snowdon a serial exaggerator and fabricator, and says, instead 63 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 1: of using legal avenues to express his qualms about US 64 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: intelligence activities, he stole one and a half million classified 65 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 1: documents from ns A networks. The report urges President Obama 66 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: not to pardon Snowdon. His attorney is blasting the report, 67 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: calling Snowdon a genuine American hero. It comes as the 68 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: new Oliver Stone directed movie about the leaguer premiers in 69 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 1: theaters today. Nathan Hagar Bloomberg Radio. A New York City 70 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 1: museum is offering visitors a chance to sit on a 71 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 1: golden throne as part of his America exhibit at the 72 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: Googenheim Museum. Italian artist Maritio Catalan replaced the toilet in 73 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 1: the museum's fourth floor restroom with a fully functional replica 74 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 1: cast in eighteen carrot gold. Global News twenty four hours 75 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 1: a day, powered by more than twenty journalists and analysts 76 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: and more than one twenty countries. I'm Scarlet Foo. This 77 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg, Charlie, and we thank you and again recapping 78 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: equities lower with the SMP five hundred index down ten, 79 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 1: a drop there of five tenths of one percent. And 80 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 1: this update brought to you by e t F Exchange 81 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: b n Y Melons et F Symposium September nine to 82 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 1: the twenty one in Dana Point, California. I must attend 83 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 1: for r I A S space is limited. Register at 84 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 1: b n y melon dot com slash et F. I'm 85 00:04:55,880 --> 00:05:02,599 Speaker 1: Charlie Polton. That's a Bloomberg business flash. This is taking 86 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:06,239 Speaker 1: stock with Kathleen Hayes and Pim Fox on Bloomberg Radio. 87 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 1: Matt Miller here standing in for Kathleen today. Glad to 88 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: join Pim Fox and really excited to introduce our next guest. 89 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: Mark Vintner joins us. He is a senior economist at 90 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 1: Wells Fargo Securities UH and great to have on a 91 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: day when we got so much data out that well 92 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: a data dependent fed Are they even listening? Mark Vitner, 93 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for your time today. UM it seems 94 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: that every measure of inflation you look at, with the 95 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: exception of the FEDS preferred core PCE is getting up 96 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: to two percent or above. I mean five year five 97 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: year forwards are at one and three quarters. The CPI 98 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 1: numbers we got today x food and energy two point 99 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 1: three percent better than the street was looking for. Is 100 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:52,480 Speaker 1: are we starting to see a real pick up and inflation? Mark? 101 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 1: It sure feels that way. If you look at the UH, 102 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 1: the the trip, the Dallas Feds trimmed me you know, 103 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:02,799 Speaker 1: the Cleveland Fed and the Cleveland Feds measure, the Atlanta 104 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 1: Feds measure of wages. Everything seems to be firming up. 105 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,159 Speaker 1: I mean it's um. It's not quite where you would 106 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: think we would be, given this far into a business 107 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: cycle and with the unemployment rate down to five percent, 108 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 1: but it's moving in that direction, and it's certainly inconsistent 109 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 1: with the funds rate near zero. But raising it is 110 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 1: awfully difficult. Well, Mark, in that context, do you think 111 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 1: that the Federal Reserve raise interest rates this year? I 112 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 1: think so. I think the raise rates in December. It um, 113 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 1: it's it's it's going always a tough call for them 114 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 1: because when when the economy is growing just at at 115 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 1: just a two percent rate when things are great. Um, 116 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: it makes it awfully tough to raise interest rates when 117 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 1: everything's right. And then when something goes wrong and and 118 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 1: a lot of things have gone wrong, from Brexit to 119 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: the continued weakness in Europe and and some some fairly 120 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: quirky or weak economic numbers here in the US, it 121 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: makes it next to the next impossible than the rates rates. 122 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 1: So there's really no justification to do it in September 123 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: because we've had some very wheat numbers right now. I 124 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 1: like to kind of say that it's the defenses their 125 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 1: data dependent, but the data haven't been dependable. Well, but wait, 126 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: aren't they I thought inflation like price stability and uh 127 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 1: the labor market where the two things that they had 128 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 1: to worry about the most. Do they have actually other mandates? Well, 129 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: that's their their primary mission, and I guess the third 130 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 1: leg of the school was to maintain low interest rates, 131 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 1: although that was long been forgotten because rachs are so low. 132 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 1: But the problem is, how do you normalize interest rates 133 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 1: without uh unleashing havoc in the global financial markets. Well, 134 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: it's very hard to do when when the global economy 135 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 1: is barely growing, and the US economy is his only 136 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 1: average one growth over the last three quarters. So but Mark, 137 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 1: let me. I mean, I was talking to Mark Fields 138 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 1: the other day from the Word Motor Company, and he said, Um, 139 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:06,239 Speaker 1: his company is well prepared for a raise in rates 140 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 1: that he wants to see. Obviously a slow and shallow trajectory, 141 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 1: but um, a quarter point fifty basis points no problem. 142 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: And they're obviously reliant on a consumer that needs credit 143 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 1: to sell products. So if he's ready, Um, then the 144 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: FEDS Uh only holding back what you're saying to do 145 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 1: a favor to other countries who would be unhappy if 146 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 1: they raised rates. No. I don't think it's a favorite 147 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 1: of other countries. I think that the FEDS feeling is 148 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 1: now we we we have to we have to pick 149 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 1: our battles and and uh, let's not. Let's not raise 150 00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: rates at a time where we're going to unleash havoc 151 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: in the in the in the global financial markets, and 152 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 1: raising rates in September might do that, particularly following those 153 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: weak I s M reports. Uh, We've and then we 154 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:58,959 Speaker 1: had the weak reports from from the Philly Fed in 155 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:05,680 Speaker 1: the New York yesterday, the client and industrial production. Uh. 156 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: The raising interest rates in that environment is totally inconsistent 157 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 1: with everything we've seen in the history of the FED. 158 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: I mean, I just can't see I can't see how 159 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 1: they how they in September, the next meetings in November, 160 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,199 Speaker 1: they're not gonna raise rates a week before the presidential elections. 161 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 1: That that leaves it December, which we do expect them 162 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 1: to raise rates by a quarter of a point then, 163 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 1: but they're not. But it's not a political thing, right 164 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:29,319 Speaker 1: because didn't we hear from Neil cash Kari that the 165 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: FED it takes absolutely no political uh thought into its 166 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: decision making. Well, you know, they take absolutely no political 167 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 1: thought into their political decision making. That's my that's my 168 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: that's my thinking on it. I mean, yeah, they try 169 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 1: to be they try to be non political by being 170 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: you know, by being political. I mean, you can't separate 171 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: the two. And there is some precedent for doing something 172 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,600 Speaker 1: as latest September, but unfortunately, I think that the data 173 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 1: just doesn't just just doesn't the case for it. And 174 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,079 Speaker 1: when it when it comes to making a decision on rates, 175 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,440 Speaker 1: they have to weigh the risk of making a mistake 176 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 1: in keeping rates where they are versus versus raising them 177 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,560 Speaker 1: and at this point, the risk of raising interest rates 178 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 1: far out weigh the risk of waiting until December. So 179 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: I think it's a it's a fairly easy call right now. 180 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 1: In terms of politics, I think it really just comes 181 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: down to do we really want to interject ourselves into 182 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 1: this political debate We're getting ready to go through a 183 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 1: series of three presidential debates. Do we want them to 184 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: talk about the set at all? It would be best 185 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: if we just laid low, and that's that's essentially what 186 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:38,679 Speaker 1: they do, all right, Mark Vitner, he is senior economist 187 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 1: at Wells Fargo of Securities. Talking about rates while taking 188 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,720 Speaker 1: a look at the tenuere it is down to thirty seconds, 189 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:49,719 Speaker 1: the yield one point six nine percent the thirty year ago, 190 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: and in the other direction there by us up eight 191 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 1: thirty seconds two point four four per cent. You're listening 192 00:10:56,280 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 1: to taking stock. This is Bloomberg. Bloombertaking Stock is brought 193 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: to by Benzel Busch Motorcar and Anglewood, New Jersey, offering 194 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:08,560 Speaker 1: a commitment to service, luxury and value with total transparency 195 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 1: from America's premier automotive dealership. To find the way you 196 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 1: drive at Benzel Bush dot com.