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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Mollie John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds.

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Speaker 2: And a new poll says Republicans want someone younger than

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, you know, the oldest presidential nominee in the

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Speaker 2: US history. We have such a great show for you today,

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Speaker 2: Historian Kevin Kruz pops by to give an accurate historical

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Speaker 2: rundown of the more chaotic moments in presidential conventions. Then

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Speaker 2: we'll talk to Heated's Emily Atkin about the latest inquiment news.

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Speaker 2: But first we have MSNBC columnist and contributor Charlie Sykes.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to Fast Politics. Charlie Sykes.

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Speaker 3: Hey, from one crappy Jew to another, I guess.

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Speaker 4: That's right, right, I didn't realize you were Jewish.

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Speaker 3: Well, you know what, I feel like, I'm an honorary

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Speaker 3: horrible crappy Jew given what the President has been saying

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Speaker 3: my father was Jewish, I'm actually not.

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Speaker 4: But you're Jewish enough for Hitler. I mean that's you know.

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Speaker 3: And apparently Donald Trump is obsessed with people who change

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Speaker 3: their their racial identity, so I figured more than merrier.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't like identity politics, except when he does like

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Speaker 1: identity politics, which is all the time.

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Speaker 3: He's a little obsessed with all of this, isn't he?

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Speaker 1: You know?

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Speaker 3: I mean, the whole idea that Kamala Harris is a

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Speaker 3: recent convert to blackness, which was really kind of an

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Speaker 3: amazing moment, an amazing day. Wasn't actually in an amazing

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Speaker 3: week that kept off an amazing month.

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Speaker 4: Somebody tweeted like, July you were a lot.

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Speaker 3: It was. I think I tweeted this out. It's hard

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Speaker 3: to remember because so many things happen in July. But

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Speaker 3: a talented historian could write an entire book July twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty four, I mean, just just the month. Problem is

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Speaker 3: that book probably won't get written because lord knows what

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Speaker 3: August Hastember not a berger to be like.

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Speaker 1: Yes July twenty twenty four is a book, but it's

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Speaker 1: a harm book.

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Speaker 4: I mean, actually, though it has a happy ending, right.

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Speaker 3: It certainly had the twists in it. I mean, you

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Speaker 3: think where we were a couple of weeks ago, in

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Speaker 3: terms of the enthusiasm, the energy, the engagement, the optimism.

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Speaker 3: It is as if we live in a completely new world.

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Speaker 3: And by the way, you could really see yesterday I

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Speaker 3: thought that Donald Trump has not figured out how to

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Speaker 3: navigate this new world. I was listening to some of

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Speaker 3: the pundits talking about why he went to the Black

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Speaker 3: Journalist event, you know, because this is exactly what he

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Speaker 3: wanted to do in you know, X, Y and Z.

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Speaker 3: And I'm looking at that going, you know, let's just

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Speaker 3: set aside the strategy and they try to get inside

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Speaker 3: the prefrontal cortex of Donald Trump. And what you saw

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Speaker 3: was this this aging man with no impulse control, who's

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Speaker 3: playing his greatest hits from twenty fifteen. It's basically fat

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Speaker 3: Elvis pushed out on the stage and he wants to

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Speaker 3: go back to birthrism two point oh.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the birth certificate stuff.

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Speaker 1: The fact that they brought that out there was just unbelievable.

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Speaker 3: Well, unbelievable except that, okay, this is who Donald Trump is.

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Speaker 3: He came down the Golden Nesk. He actually put out

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Speaker 3: a statement where he talked about, you know, the controversy

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Speaker 3: around his announcement back in twenty fifteen. He talked about

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Speaker 3: the Mexican rapists. And what I thought was interesting was

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Speaker 3: that he, in his mind wants to go back to

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Speaker 3: twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen and play the same damn cards.

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Speaker 3: He looks at Kamala Harris and he thinks, I'm going

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Speaker 3: to make an issue of whether or not she's of

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Speaker 3: mixed race, and then all of MAGA tries to play that,

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Speaker 3: and it's like, guys, the world has kind of moved

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Speaker 3: on from all of this.

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Speaker 1: This is a theory that I want to explore with you.

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Speaker 1: I think one of Trump's big problems, and there are many,

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Speaker 1: is that he's sort of obsessed with what's worked for

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Speaker 1: him in the past. This may be a broader problem

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Speaker 1: that other politicians have, but what worked for him in

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen was this ability to use this sort of

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Speaker 1: bat his bad qualities to drive a news cycle that

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Speaker 1: somehow gave him free media and made him win. So,

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Speaker 1: for example, he would say something appalling like the Mexicans

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Speaker 1: are rapist, and it would dominate the news cycle in

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Speaker 1: such a way that it got his base all excited

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Speaker 1: and somehow catapulted him to victory.

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Speaker 4: And so I just have to wonder if some of

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Speaker 4: this is muscle.

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Speaker 3: Memory, oh, very very much so, and and maybe a

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Speaker 3: lack of imagination and kind of a reminder that at

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump's core, the man is obsessed with racial identity.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he is a racist. He launched his presidential

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Speaker 3: bid basically on questioning Barack Obama's burke, and so he

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Speaker 3: is going back to that muscle memory. But the problem

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Speaker 3: is is that, you know, and I gave this is

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Speaker 3: you know, you're a seventy eight year old man in

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Speaker 3: clear cognitive decline and you're relying on your muscle memory.

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Speaker 3: It's like, this may not work in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 3: And I think the reaction was different. In twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 3: People were kind of shocked and we have to react

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Speaker 3: and we always have to comment. And this year it's

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Speaker 3: sort of like that was pretty pathetic, wasn't it. I mean,

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Speaker 3: that was that was just lame. That was embarrassing. I

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Speaker 3: mean even Scott Jennings on CNN, who's kind of a

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Speaker 3: reliable turd polisher, says that that Donald Trump shit the bed.

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Speaker 4: I love you for that. Go on, this is more

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Speaker 4: of the content I want.

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Speaker 3: And Republicans are like, you know, that was kind of embarrassing. Boy,

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Speaker 3: that was it was a lost opportunity. They're not spinning it.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, Trump is I crushed it, But

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Speaker 3: he's not the only person who's thinking that he didn't

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Speaker 3: shit the bed yesterday, and so he reminded us of

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Speaker 3: so many things about him himself in a way that

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Speaker 3: was not flattering. And by the way, we can just

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Speaker 3: get to how he threw jd Vance under the bus

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Speaker 3: and doubled down on pardoning the January sixth, the rioters

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Speaker 3: who attacked the cops.

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Speaker 1: If they're guilty, and she was like, they were convicted.

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Speaker 1: By the way that moment where he said if they're

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Speaker 1: guilty and she goes they were convicted. We talked about

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Speaker 1: the journalists who did that interview, but like I would

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Speaker 1: like to point out, those interviews are actually really hard

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Speaker 1: because you're in front of a gazillion people.

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Speaker 4: And you know, it's just hard.

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Speaker 1: You are confronting someone who really is she's pretty good

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Speaker 1: at confronting people. And I thought the woman from ABC,

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Speaker 1: Rachel Scott, really I mean, she's young, and she just

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Speaker 1: had so much gravitas and you know, she shot back

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Speaker 1: right away they were convicted, which you know, in the

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Speaker 1: moment I could have been like, you know, she.

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Speaker 3: Was legend yesterday. I mean that was really really effective,

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Speaker 3: and you're pointing something out that is important. This is hard.

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Speaker 3: Those live interviews are hard, and you've seen this with

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Speaker 3: a lot of professionals on the broadcast media who just

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Speaker 3: cannot keep up with his fire hose of insults and lies.

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Speaker 3: And she just kept at it, she kept, you know,

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Speaker 3: asking the question again, pushing back on him. She pulled

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Speaker 3: no punches whatsoever, and so almost from the beginning she

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Speaker 3: laid out the indictment, and Trump's reaction was just to

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Speaker 3: insult her over and over and over again, and she

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Speaker 3: was absolutely unfazed. And I guess this goes to the

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Speaker 3: I don't know how you feel about this, but there's

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Speaker 3: a debate about should they have platformed Trump, should have

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Speaker 3: invited him, should they not have invited him, and a

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Speaker 3: lot of back and forth. At the end of this day,

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Speaker 3: I'm thinking, I'm glad they invited him. I'm glad they

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Speaker 3: invited him because they exposed him and this was a

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Speaker 3: good thing.

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Speaker 1: I really try to not make broad statements like it's

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Speaker 1: good it's bad, because sometimes it's good. What happened there

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Speaker 1: was amazing. And what we saw with him in the

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Speaker 1: debate was that if you can't hold him accountable and

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Speaker 1: you can't at least try to solicit information. I mean,

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Speaker 1: obviously there were other things going on in the debate, clearly,

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Speaker 1: and that was not the headline. But you did see

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Speaker 1: he was able to just sort of say his stuff

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Speaker 1: and go unchallenged, which in it's that is doing him

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Speaker 1: a favor. So I think that it can work really

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Speaker 1: well and it can also not.

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Speaker 3: Right right, going back to this muscle memory that as

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Speaker 3: soon as he started raising questions about whether Kamala Harris

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Speaker 3: was really black, you notice that his minions began pushing

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Speaker 3: the same line on the Fox News. I mean, you

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Speaker 3: want to talk about, you know, firing blanks of all

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Speaker 3: the things that he should be doing in this campaign

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Speaker 3: to run against Kamala Harris. And look, there are issues,

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Speaker 3: there are things in substance, and yet he cannot help

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Speaker 3: himself but go after her identity. This is the og

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump. I'm going way way back, And it did

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Speaker 3: occur to me as I was watching this. Again, this

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Speaker 3: is not new, because nothing that we say about Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump is remotely new. There is really something about black

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Speaker 3: women that triggers him, isn't there? I mean there really is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And again remember he went after the DA in

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Speaker 1: New York.

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Speaker 3: Well, there was Fannie Willis and obviously Letitia James. But

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Speaker 3: I mean, all through his term, he went out of

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Speaker 3: his way to pick fights with black women who were

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Speaker 3: not necessarily prominent, because that was the fight he wants.

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Speaker 3: In his mind. He's thinking that his base wants the

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Speaker 3: image of the other, of the enemy, of the person

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Speaker 3: that Donald Trump is protecting you from. He would go

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Speaker 3: out of his way to pick these fights. And now

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Speaker 3: it feels like he's compassed round with all these black

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Speaker 3: women saying you know, we're coming for you, Donald, and

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Speaker 3: it's rattling him.

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Speaker 1: He has doubled down on this strategy, which is that

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Speaker 1: he's just going to go for his people and he's

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Speaker 1: going to try to juice the turnout so that, you know,

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Speaker 1: he'll have the kind of numbers that can propel him

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Speaker 1: to victory.

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Speaker 4: I'm not convinced that he.

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Speaker 1: Has enough people to do that in a high turnout election.

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Speaker 4: If she has managed to.

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Speaker 1: Galvanize her base, which is a much bigger tent.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you're right.

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Speaker 3: He clearly is either not interested or has lost interest

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Speaker 3: in going after those swing voters. I mean, you could

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Speaker 3: tell that when he chose jd. Vance And by the way,

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Speaker 3: isn't that working out well for him? This is not

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Speaker 3: going to appeal to, you know, white swing voters in

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Speaker 3: the suburbs of Philadelphia. It's not going to get back

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Speaker 3: women who voted for Democrats during the midterm elections. And

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Speaker 3: he basically doesn't care. He's not talking to the Haley

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Speaker 3: voters anymore.

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Speaker 4: No, But the question is is enough of America like that?

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Speaker 3: Okay, let me annoying answer, because I think that's a

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Speaker 3: very interesting question because I think that as Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: has decided that he's going to go after Kamala Harris

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Speaker 3: based on her racial identity, he is thinking that that

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Speaker 3: is what America is. Donald Trump, to his core, believes

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Speaker 3: that American voters are racist, that they are racist, and

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Speaker 3: they will not elect a Asian black woman as president

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Speaker 3: of the United States. So he is assuming that this works. Okay,

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Speaker 3: so that's his view. I certainly hope that he's wrong.

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Speaker 3: But I want to just kind of step back from

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Speaker 3: the horse race aspect of this, because we don't know

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Speaker 3: the answer to all of this and just say that

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Speaker 3: what you saw yesterday was and I know we've done

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Speaker 3: this so many times, but this man is so deplorable,

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Speaker 3: so pathetic, so deeply dishonest, and so deeply bigoted, and

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Speaker 3: he cannot conceal it at the moment in his life

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Speaker 3: when you would think that prudence would dictate that you

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Speaker 3: put back from this. And I think what frustrates Republicans

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Speaker 3: is they're thinking, Okay, she is vulnerable, run against her

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Speaker 3: as being too liberal, run against her as you know,

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Speaker 3: having this record, we can do that. Instead, Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: just cannot help himself. And it is like fat Elvis

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Speaker 3: coming out and somebody handing him some new material and

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Speaker 3: he goes, now, I'm just gonna do things. I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: do a houndog thing again. I'm just because that's what

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Speaker 3: I do. And that's what and that's what you see

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Speaker 3: with Donald Trump. He's going back and it worked with Obama,

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Speaker 3: It's going to work with Kamala.

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Speaker 4: So here's the question.

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Speaker 1: Then there's a theory out there, and I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: this is right, that he is trying to steal back

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Speaker 1: the news cycle to get a kind of hysteria going

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Speaker 1: about his racism. Now, she has been much more like

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Speaker 1: Obama with the response to racism than Hillary. And again

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Speaker 1: I'm not trying to criticize Hillary. I'm merely making a

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Speaker 1: point here, which is that when he went after Hillary,

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Speaker 1: and you know, when he went after women in general.

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Speaker 4: In twenty sixteen, there was a lot of like this

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Speaker 4: is beyond the pales, so disgusting.

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Speaker 1: What Harris has done has more been like this is

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Speaker 1: him like goodbye, shut it down.

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Speaker 4: Do you think that's more effective? And also does.

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Speaker 1: That take the air of the tires or do you

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Speaker 1: think it should be more And why.

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Speaker 3: I think she's handling this very very effectively. I will

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Speaker 3: confess that I am both surprised and amazed how how

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Speaker 3: well she's doing and the way that she's handling this

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Speaker 3: with incredible deftness. Now heard the commentary saying, well, this

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Speaker 3: is part of you know, Trump's plan to you know,

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Speaker 3: sees back the news cycle and generate this this sort

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Speaker 3: of outrage. And I think it's only half true. Part

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Speaker 3: of it is that Trump just simply can't help himself.

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Speaker 3: I do think that Donald Trump wanted to seize the

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Speaker 3: news cycle to show himself as strong. I can go

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Speaker 3: into the lions, then I can take the insults. I

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Speaker 3: will give as good as I get because I am strong,

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Speaker 3: because this whole theme of strong versus weak and everything.

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Speaker 3: And I don't think that he thought that I'm going

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Speaker 3: to go in there and I'm going to seize back

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Speaker 3: the news cycle to show what an inveterate racist I am,

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Speaker 3: how out of touch with American demographics, I am, how

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Speaker 3: deeply insensitive I am. I think he thought that it

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Speaker 3: would come off as strong and maybe trigger something. But

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Speaker 3: I don't think that what you saw yesterday wasn't anybody's

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Speaker 3: game plan, certainly not his. If there was any aid

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Speaker 3: that thought that this is the strategy. Let's go up

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Speaker 3: there and do all those things. Let's let's repeat the

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Speaker 3: black jobs line, let's do you know the you know,

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Speaker 3: let's that's that's let's mock the you know, the black

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Speaker 3: woman questions, all of that, that person should be fired.

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Speaker 4: The black jobs line.

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Speaker 1: By the way, when Rachel Scott, I think it was

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Speaker 1: her who immediately said what's a black job? That was

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Speaker 1: an amazing moment too, because she said what's a black job?

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Speaker 4: And he said any job?

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Speaker 6: But you knew it was.

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Speaker 3: That wasn't what he meant, right right. And also you

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Speaker 3: know when they were going back and forth about de

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Speaker 3: I and he and he and he thought, you know,

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Speaker 3: well you define it, which, by the way, as Trump

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Speaker 3: speak for, I have no idea what it means. No,

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Speaker 3: and she does, and he could have thrown her off,

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Speaker 3: but she kept coming back at it. And this is

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Speaker 3: also interesting because a lot of Republicans have been saying, Okay, obviously,

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Speaker 3: you know, calling Kamala a dei hire is not working.

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Speaker 3: That's a terrible thing. Let's stick to the issues, of

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Speaker 3: which there are many. So what does Donald Trump do?

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Speaker 3: You know, It's like just goes right there. It did

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Speaker 3: feel as if jd. Vance has been out there being

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Speaker 3: as weird as possible, talking about you know, the lonely

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Speaker 3: crazy cat ladies and everything, and you know it's generated

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Speaker 3: this this massive meme about weirdness, and that Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: essentially said yesterday, hold my beer. You think you think

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Speaker 3: jd Vance is weird, I'm going to show you the

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Speaker 3: original weird and he walked into it. And you can

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Speaker 3: see from the reaction just across the board. I mean,

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Speaker 3: not even Fox News can polish this turd.

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Speaker 1: And we did see them really get completely fried by that.

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Speaker 1: The part of what's so tragic about Trump is, and

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Speaker 1: I also think it's what's tragic about the Murdoch Empire

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Speaker 1: is there are a lot of people who work at

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Speaker 1: Fox who do not believe those stuff. It's a job

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Speaker 1: Harris Faulkner to some extent, she did this to herself,

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Speaker 1: but you know, there were people who went and worked

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Speaker 1: there when it was normal.

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Speaker 3: She made a choice and she decided to play that role.

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Speaker 3: And she makes a lot more money than either you

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Speaker 3: or I.

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Speaker 4: Right, well, that's true or a good point. I can't

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Speaker 4: speak to you, no, Now, I'm sure that's true.

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Speaker 3: I just generally have reserved my sympathy for people who

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Speaker 3: make less than a million dollars. A Yeve, just that's

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Speaker 3: just me. I just had a thing about.

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Speaker 4: That, Charlie.

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Speaker 1: Somebody told me when Harris announced that the first three

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Speaker 1: days would be the most critical. She's so blown past

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Speaker 1: expectations in every which way thoughts.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's absolutely true. And it's not just the first

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Speaker 3: three days. I mean I think the first, you know,

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Speaker 3: three weeks will be a race to define her. The

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Speaker 3: Republicans are going to spend millions of dollars defining her

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Speaker 3: as dangerous and corrupt. In all of those things, she

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Speaker 3: has a chance to introduce herself. And what is remarkable

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Speaker 3: is there were so many low expectations. One of the

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Speaker 3: reasons why people stuck with Biden for so long was

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Speaker 3: they thought that she would be an ineffective candidate. No

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Speaker 3: one saw this calming. Nobody even among people going Okay,

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Speaker 3: the hype is getting too much. But the hype is

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Speaker 3: real that you could see with the enthusiasm and the

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Speaker 3: energy and the engagement, the amount of money that's coming in.

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Speaker 5: This is real.

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Speaker 3: And Molly she hasn't even had her bump yet because

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Speaker 3: the convention is coming up. She's going to choose a

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Speaker 3: vice president, She's going to have this big convention, she's

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Speaker 3: going to give her acceptance speech. And the reality is

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Speaker 3: is that she is doing as well as she is

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Speaker 3: when most Americas still only have the vaguest idea of

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Speaker 3: who she is. So she's introducing herself in a very

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Speaker 3: very short period of time in really I'm trying to

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Speaker 3: think how it could have gone any better. And you

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Speaker 3: know that I can be a pessimist and a skeptic

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Speaker 3: and a contrarian, and I really can't come up with

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Speaker 3: a scenario which she would be stronger. It won't last.

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Speaker 3: My biggest concern is when she sits down for a

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Speaker 3: network broadcast interview and they play for her some of

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Speaker 3: the tapes of her comments that she made when she

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Speaker 3: was running for president back in twenty twenty, they say,

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Speaker 3: do you still think this? Do you still believe this?

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Speaker 3: Do you still believe this? And she's going to have

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Speaker 3: to handle that. In the past she has not always

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Speaker 3: handled that well, but she's been exceeding my expectations regularly,

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Speaker 3: So we will see. But if there's a stumble, it

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Speaker 3: will come on that that she will either not handle

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Speaker 3: that well or or I don't even think being a

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Speaker 3: flip flopper is a negative anymore. I don't think people

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Speaker 3: care that much anymore. But that's going to be the test.

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Speaker 3: But I think that her bump is going to continue

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Speaker 3: through the Democratic Convention, and it's going to be very

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Speaker 3: interesting to see what those polls look like the week

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Speaker 3: after that convention.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's so interesting. And I also agree.

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Speaker 1: I feel like I would say this and people would

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Speaker 1: be like, you're stupid or a partisan. But I always

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Speaker 1: thought she had become two years into her vice president's tenures,

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Speaker 1: something happened and she became an Obama level RA tour.

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Speaker 1: Maybe not Obama level because Obama, you know, but I

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Speaker 1: mean really good and Democrats haven't had a really gifted

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Speaker 1: ORA tour since Obama, and I think it just all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden came into place, and because her speeches

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Speaker 1: are really good and her energy, you know, she goes

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Speaker 1: around to all these different places and she's you know,

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Speaker 1: she can really campaign, which is a huge advantage.

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Speaker 3: Well, and her campaign just feels like it's fully formed.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the themes just came together, bang bang bang,

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Speaker 3: in a way that was very impressive. I mean, the

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Speaker 3: two themes right out of the box. I'm the prosecutor,

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Speaker 3: he's the phone. That's number one. And also then this

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Speaker 3: focus on the future that we're not going back.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Smart, you have campaigns that struggle and flail and flounder

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Speaker 3: trying to come up with themes like that. Speaking of

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Speaker 3: which the Republicans, you would think that they would be

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Speaker 3: ready for this, but I think I thought it was

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Speaker 3: a tell when they when they rolled out that name.

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Speaker 3: She was cackling Kamala or laughing Kamala. Yeah, that's brilliant

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Speaker 3: that she laughs and smiles. That's going to kill her.

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Speaker 5: Really so good.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, Charlie, Thank you. It's always fun.

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Speaker 1: Are you concerned about Project twenty twenty five and how awful.

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Speaker 4: Trump's second term could be?

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Speaker 1: Well, so are we, which is why we teamed with

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Speaker 1: iHeart to make a limited series with the experts on

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Speaker 1: what a disaster Project twenty twenty five would be for

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Speaker 1: America's future Right now. The first four episodes, with the

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Speaker 1: final episode coming next week, are available by looking up

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Speaker 1: Molly John Fast Project twenty twenty five on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: If you are thinking you.

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Speaker 1: Are more of a podcast person and not a YouTuber,

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Speaker 1: you can hit play when you get to the video,

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Speaker 1: put the phone on lock screen and it will play back.

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Speaker 1: New episodes are dropping in the next week as well.

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Speaker 1: We need to educate America on what Trump's second term

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Speaker 1: would do to this country.

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Speaker 4: Please watch and help us spread the word.

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Speaker 2: Kevin Cruise is the publisher of the Campaign Trails newsletter

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Speaker 2: as well as the author of One Nation Under Got

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Speaker 2: How Corporated America invented Christian America.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to Fast Politics, Kevin Cruz.

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Speaker 5: Great to be here, Gate.

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Speaker 4: I wanted you to.

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Speaker 1: Come on not just because you're a very smart academic

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Speaker 1: and very fancy and teach a Princeton, but because you

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Speaker 1: study pre recent history, and I think that this is

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Speaker 1: a moment when I feel like history informs in interesting

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Speaker 1: ways and we just are not in the American political

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Speaker 1: industrial complex looking at history to take.

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Speaker 4: Lessons from it.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's spare not.

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Speaker 1: To be too didactic, but that said, we're in sort

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Speaker 1: of a historical times. I'm thinking about, like the precedent

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Speaker 1: to the moment, the having a president who decides not

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Speaker 1: to run for re election, and if you could sort

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Speaker 1: of talk about a little bit more of the sort

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Speaker 1: of story of that, and also because it's not so

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Speaker 1: long ago, but also what the lessons that we could

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Speaker 1: clean from that.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, you know, it's never the history is

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Speaker 5: predictive about the future, but often, you know, we see

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Speaker 5: some of the same phenomenon play out in the past,

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Speaker 5: and it's instructive to see how it worked then and

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Speaker 5: what we might take from it and what we can

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Speaker 5: leave behind. So the real precedent here is Lendon Johnson's decision, Yeah,

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Speaker 5: and early nineteen sixty eight where he announced it even

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Speaker 5: though he was eligible for another term in office. The

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Speaker 5: twenty second Amendment had been passed but didn't limit him

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Speaker 5: because he inherited its first term from JFK. Everybody thought

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Speaker 5: he was going to run again. Lynnon Johnson's one of

438
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 5: the most political or of our presidents in every sense

439
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 5: of that term, really thrived on holding the office exercise

440
00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 5: and power doing good where he thought again and everybody thought,

441
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,439
Speaker 5: for sure, this thoroughly political animal is gonna day on

442
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,400
Speaker 5: for another four years, And he stunned the nation in

443
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 5: early nineteen sixty eight by announcing But he wasn't going

444
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 5: to do it, And it was rationale for that was

445
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 5: that he wanted to be free from the campaign in

446
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 5: order to end the war in Vietnam. He wanted to

447
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,360
Speaker 5: bring it to a successful end. So he bowed out

448
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 5: and he could focus on the dunities of the job

449
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 5: he already had. But what LBJ did was rather different

450
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:24,160
Speaker 5: than what Biden did.

451
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's what I was hoping you would talk about.

452
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, because I mean LBJ stepped aside, not because of

453
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 5: any concerns about his capacity to handle the job. He

454
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 5: would die. He actually died the day Roe V. Wade

455
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 5: was handed down in January nineteen seventy three, so he

456
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 5: wouldn't live much longer. But that wasn't a concern of

457
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 5: the time. Everybody assumed he could carry on the job.

458
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 5: It was that he wanted to focus on handling Vietnam.

459
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,880
Speaker 5: With Biden, it's rather different. It's all about his own

460
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 5: personal issues, and that's why he announced the woman to

461
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 5: step aside, and with LBJ. When he stepped aside, he

462
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 5: did so without handing the reins of power to his

463
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 5: byspread it right. Hubert Humphrey become the Democratic nominee nineteen

464
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 5: sixty eight, but only after a deeply divisive primary season.

465
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 5: Right Jean McCarthy is challenging on the war. Robert Kennedy

466
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 5: makes a strong run as well as that assassinated in

467
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 5: June nineteen sixty eight after winning the California primary. The

468
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 5: August nineteen sixty eight convention is utter chaos for Democrats.

469
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 5: It's not a coronation by any means, and the party

470
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 5: is really badly hurt by the way LBJ leaves it behind.

471
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 5: And there is kind of a classic Democrats in disarray

472
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 5: military nineteen sixty eight and lets Richard Nixon swoop in

473
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 5: and take the White House, whereas Biden has as seamless

474
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,120
Speaker 5: to handle this aw I mean, what's kind of studying

475
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 5: in retrospect is for those weeks when everyone seemed to

476
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 5: be kind of rendering their garments in public, it's clearing,

477
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 5: at least at the very end, the Biden and Harris

478
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 5: teams got together and kind of flawlessly rolled this out

479
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 5: so that Biden made his announcement and then boom, boom boom,

480
00:23:56,160 --> 00:24:00,040
Speaker 5: a series of endorsements came out, and Harris basically, we

481
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 5: had this thing wrapped up in a couple of days.

482
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 5: There are going to be no challengers in seams of meeting,

483
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 5: barely knock on one clear sailing to the convention, and

484
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 5: it's not going to be the chaos that we saw

485
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 5: at sixty eight.

486
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 4: Yeah.

487
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny because whenever you hear people talk

488
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 1: about how, you know, a dividing convention would be fun

489
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 1: and we'll have a mini primary, we'll bring in Oprah,

490
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 1: you know, and then we'll have you know, Lady Gaga,

491
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:31,119
Speaker 1: and we'll have every person in the world, you know,

492
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 1: make this into a complete circus. There is no good

493
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 1: historical precedent for circus none.

494
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 5: The contested convention that Blitz primary are all these weird

495
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 5: West wing ideas that people have thrown out. They come

496
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 5: out of fiction. The real experience in American history of

497
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 5: a condestic convention, it's not good.

498
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 4: Can you talk about the other ones?

499
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 5: Yeah? Yeah, So I mean think back to you know,

500
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 5: a century ago when the Democrats in nineteen twenty four

501
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:00,919
Speaker 5: had a convention that went on for so long. I

502
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,679
Speaker 5: mean went on like hundreds of ballots, hundreds of ballots

503
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 5: to determine who the nomine would be. And finally Will

504
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 5: Rogers said it, look, folks, yeah, TAKANDU invited you here

505
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 5: for a convention, not to live because it was just

506
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 5: they were going nowhere. And this is the same era

507
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 5: in which Will Rogers said I don't belong to an

508
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,400
Speaker 5: organized political party. I'm a Democrat. Right, So that kind

509
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 5: of chaos, right, yeah, oh good, that's democracy. Everybody's finding

510
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 5: it out. There's a lot of news interests in this,

511
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 5: but it was not good. People weren't excited about the

512
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 5: cluster that was going on there, and the results of

513
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 5: it were good either. Democrats got hammered in by nineteen

514
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 5: twenty four election. Right, So it's not that this generates excitement,

515
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 5: it's not that it generates a strong candidate. It generates chaos.

516
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 5: And I think it's notable. But the only people who've

517
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 5: really been rooting for a catestant convention for a Blitz

518
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 5: primary are Republicans or pundits in the media who are

519
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 5: simply want to be entertained. Right, Democrats having one of them.

520
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 6: So back.

521
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 5: What's remarkable is as soon as Biden hass the baton

522
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 5: to Harris, the general attitude throughout the left, liberals and

523
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 5: the m the let was great, let's go, that's what candaday, great,

524
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,640
Speaker 5: let's go. The overwhelming amount of donations, the new registrations,

525
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 5: the volunteers, the party which is looking for some sense

526
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,159
Speaker 5: of direction of finality, and they got it.

527
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:08,919
Speaker 4: Yeah.

528
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 1: No, I think that's really important. And you know the

529
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 1: Republicans who are like this is rigged.

530
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 4: Let's have a.

531
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,479
Speaker 1: Spill off contingent so we can get a convicted fallon

532
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 1: back in the White House. Can you talk about those

533
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:25,200
Speaker 1: conventions though, because Republicans have had divided conventions and.

534
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 4: They have also been fucking disasters for them.

535
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I mean to think about I mean, the

536
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 5: most famous one is that I think sixty four convention

537
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 5: where Barry Goldwater took control of the party right and

538
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 5: it was bitterly fought. The old moderate and liberal Republicans

539
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 5: were living about it, and there is i mean opening

540
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 5: of violence on the campaign floor. This is back when

541
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 5: we still had large numbers of moderate black Republicans. They

542
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 5: find the experience frightening. There they're getting assaulted by the

543
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 5: kind of the Goldwater supporters who especially coming from the South,

544
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 5: these old segregationists who are now taken in control of

545
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 5: the Republican Party. You know, one of them has this

546
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,920
Speaker 5: soup set on fire. Jack Robinson, who'd been a loyal

547
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 5: Republican for a long time, comes out of convention says,

548
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 5: I know what it's like now to be a Jew

549
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 5: in Nazi Germany. That's what that felt like, right. So

550
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:12,639
Speaker 5: there's a real sense of chaos and confusion, and of

551
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 5: course what happens to the Republicans that year have now

552
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 5: a huge defeat. It's a landslide win for were the

553
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 5: Democrats who have rallied around when the Johnson with no contest, right,

554
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 5: So it's these contested conventions. There's a lot of drama,

555
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,479
Speaker 5: but it's not good drama. You know, you think it's

556
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 5: sixty eight Chicago, you think of either Democrats in seventy two.

557
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,199
Speaker 5: It's chaos, right, And that's it might be fun to

558
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:33,919
Speaker 5: watch on the outside, it's not fun to live with.

559
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that's a really important point. I

560
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 1: actually read this weird little book by Norman Mayler about

561
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 1: that nineteen.

562
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 4: Sixty four convention.

563
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, they just absolutely could not get a handle

564
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 1: on things, and there was such division in the party.

565
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 5: I mean, there's a way in which you think about

566
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 5: if the conventions are the way in which a party

567
00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 5: formally introducing itself and its program and it's candidates to

568
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 5: the American people, right, And it's in a way it's

569
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 5: an audition. And so how well can you run a

570
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 5: convention in which things are under your control, You're just

571
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 5: dealing with your own allies, you're able to determine the theme,

572
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 5: get buffoned around by outside events. Usually that's your audition.

573
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 5: And if you can't get your shit together in four

574
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 5: days for convention in terms of being on message, of

575
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,679
Speaker 5: having a good theme, of making an appeal to the people,

576
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 5: well then why should people want to hire you for

577
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 5: four years around the country? Right? And so I think

578
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 5: that's why these conventions matter. There really are a lot

579
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,119
Speaker 5: of times people are just tuning in and they get

580
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 5: their first impressions of the party and the party's nominees

581
00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 5: from that convention.

582
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly.

583
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 1: And I think that one of the things that I've

584
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 1: been struck by with this Democratic Party. The left has

585
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 1: been unbelievably amazing this entire time.

586
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think part of.

587
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 1: It is because Biden delivered wins that Hillary Clinton. And

588
00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 1: I say this really not in my opinion, but as

589
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 1: truth is that he delivered wins on certain things that

590
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 1: were so broadly progressive. I don't think progressives thought they

591
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 1: could have ever gone from Clinton or from even from Obama.

592
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 5: Well, I mean this is if you look at Biden's

593
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 5: long career, and as he's drawing his career to an end,

594
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 5: I think we can really say this now with some certainty.

595
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 5: Look back across his entire Senate career, and Joe Biden

596
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 5: is a bellweather for where the center of the Democratic

597
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 5: Party is in any one moment. He consistently votes him

598
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 5: the center of his caucaus right. And that shows, I think,

599
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 5: not that the have certain principles, but that he's willing

600
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 5: to be persuaded right. And that's something that we saw

601
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 5: in both the vice presidency but especially during his time

602
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 5: as president. Right the left was there standing in the party,

603
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 5: not from the outside right. The folks of the Bernie

604
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 5: of AOC the squad were freshuring him from the left right,

605
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 5: and he moved left and on climate change, on infrastructure,

606
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 5: on labor, judicial appointments, on and on. There's a whole

607
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 5: lot of things in which the Leaf got I think

608
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 5: a tremendous amount of wins under the Biden administration, and

609
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:11,239
Speaker 5: they returned that loyalty when all the centrists and all

610
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 5: the money men were doubting that Biden should stay in

611
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 5: the race, it was aoc and burning and folks like

612
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 5: that who had his back right and again Biden responded

613
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 5: to that, I think by finally embracing judicial reform, a

614
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 5: long thing that's been a wish list on the left,

615
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 5: and now I think is we're considering this campaign because

616
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 5: of their loyalty. So the leftists had remarkable discipline in

617
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 5: this in which you know, the kind of the the

618
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 5: Joe Manchion Caucaus of the world has been pandicking and

619
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 5: flailing around in public. The left really showed they could

620
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 5: get the most out of Biden and is stuck with them.

621
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 5: And so their support now even apparently for Kamala Harris,

622
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 5: who is much more liberal than Biden never was, how

623
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 5: much more leftist than Biden never was. I think it

624
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 5: really shows that the strategy is paid off, right that

625
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 5: working through the party and being loyal members there, they're

626
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 5: being listened to they're making an impact because the president

627
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,479
Speaker 5: sees them on their left, whether it be Biden or Harris,

628
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 5: on their left, as a reliable consistency and is looking

629
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 5: to reward that and keep them in the party.

630
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, And I think that's a really important point.

631
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: One of the things that I think is interesting about

632
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: this moment is we really do have no historical president.

633
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 4: Right.

634
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 1: We've never had a president who was indicted and convicted

635
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 1: and still has cases hanging over him, also federal cases.

636
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 1: We've never had a candidate like that impeached twice and

637
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,959
Speaker 1: then a candidate who is the vice president coming in

638
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 1: after a one term president who was the oldest person

639
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 1: ever to hold the office. I mean, there is no precedent,

640
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: but maybe there is something that this reminds you of.

641
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 5: Pump's criminality is off the charts. I mean we've got

642
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 5: to think about like, as educ candidates, you can't stress

643
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 5: us out through our history, and their ambitions are ruined

644
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 5: by things that would seem trivial today. Ed Musky seemed

645
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 5: to be crying in the when his wife was attacked

646
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 5: by a newspaper in New Hampshire that killed his chances. No,

647
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 5: So Rockafeller got divorced, remarried. That killed his chances. Howard

648
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,719
Speaker 5: d even on our own time, yelled a little too loud,

649
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 5: and that seemed to derail. Right. Think of Ducaccus in

650
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 5: the helmet, like there are all these little things. Trump

651
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 5: is well facing ballanans here, right, Actually he might see

652
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 5: jail time. That's amazing. That not a campaign killer, right,

653
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 5: and that actually the party leaned into it. And so

654
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 5: that is totally imprecedent. But what I think the race

655
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 5: is shicken down to and in this moment, it's currently

656
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 5: late July, and this may age badly in three days.

657
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 5: You know. In this moment, the campaign is totally flipped, right,

658
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 5: And it used to be this battle between two old men,

659
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 5: both had a tournament's president. And you're kind of comparing

660
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 5: apples to apples with Harrison. She's fifty nine. She's not youngish,

661
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 5: but she's younger. It really does seem more like a

662
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 5: generational change, right. I mean, this is a campaign that

663
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 5: feels from the Democratic side like nineteen ninety two or

664
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 5: from their public eighty right, where there's a really a

665
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 5: one side is kind of representing an old guard and

666
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 5: looking back, and the other side is one of optimism.

667
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 5: And at least in this case, you right, I mean,

668
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 5: it really does seem like what Clinton as a candidate

669
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 5: felt like in nineteen ninety two. Mil Clinton felt like

670
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 5: in nineteen eighty two against in George W. Bush, but

671
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 5: then dol too, right, So they were in a couple

672
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 5: of old World War two guys against this baby boomer.

673
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 5: And it feels the same way. The new level of

674
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 5: energy in the Democratic Party that I haven't seen since

675
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 5: Obama in two thousand and eight, it's kind of amazing.

676
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think that's a really good point.

677
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 1: One of the things that I've been struck by too,

678
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 1: is that I actually think her speech when she declared

679
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty was really really good. But she has

680
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:46,840
Speaker 1: really become an Obama level orator. And I wonder how

681
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 1: much because Biden was never an Obama level orator. All

682
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: of the things he ultimately did when he got in

683
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,479
Speaker 1: there have been incredible. You know, he was sort of

684
00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 1: picked in a way because the Democrats felt an old

685
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 1: white guy could be this old white guy. I almost

686
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 1: feel like it was sort of giving up on the

687
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 1: idea that women or people of color would ever get

688
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:10,400
Speaker 1: that office.

689
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 4: That the only way to do this was to beat

690
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 4: them at their own game.

691
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 1: Now we have again a gifted orator, someone who can

692
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: really make the emotional case to voters.

693
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,959
Speaker 4: I mean that does seem like a huge advantage.

694
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:25,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely. I mean the level of energy I think

695
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 5: you're seeing from Democrats now is kind of shocking, given

696
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 5: the attitude in the last four years and which I

697
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 5: think Biden did have an incredible amount of accomplishments, and

698
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 5: maybe his decision out to run again will lead to

699
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 5: some actual retrospectives and reckoning with his accomplishments of the

700
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 5: way in which running for president or second term didn't

701
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 5: have people looking at its first term details in that level,

702
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 5: I think that would only help the Democrats. But he

703
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 5: was never a great order. I mean, you know, for

704
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 5: someone who suffering from a stutter his entire life, right,

705
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 5: the level of ority he was able to do is amazing,

706
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 5: But it was not his game, And actually I think

707
00:34:57,520 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 5: that's good. What Democrats are looking for that moment wasn't

708
00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 5: sobody who could shine them a stump, but somebody who

709
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 5: could just you know, actually let them forget about the

710
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 5: President for a while. It wasn't Trump's constant, in your

711
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 5: face presence, but the other he was getting things done

712
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 5: behind the scenes, and there was I think a fear

713
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 5: in twenty twenty that the Democrats had taken a risk

714
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 5: with a woman candidate in twenty sixteen and they needed

715
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 5: to play it safe with an old, experienced white guy

716
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 5: in twenty twenty. But there's a way which I think

717
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 5: people overread the twenty sixteen results. Right. First of all,

718
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 5: Clinton won the popular vote, right, Let's not discount that

719
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 5: she only narrowly lost in the electoral college. But also,

720
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 5: Hillary Clinton is a very particular person. She is somebody

721
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:40,800
Speaker 5: who the Republicans had been waging a negative campaign against

722
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 5: for twenty years. I think people's reactions to Hillary Clinton

723
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 5: as a nominee can't be read as a reaction against

724
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 5: a female nominee in general. Right. So it is good

725
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 5: to see that the Democrats have, whether they planned on

726
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,399
Speaker 5: us or not, backed into having a female candidate so

727
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:59,240
Speaker 5: soon after Hillary Clinton Austin, because the demographics are there.

728
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 5: If you look at who who supports the party, if

729
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,800
Speaker 5: you know who does the hard work of organizing the party,

730
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 5: there are a lot of women there, especially African American women,

731
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:10,360
Speaker 5: And given the issues at stake in this election, I

732
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 5: think having someone like Kamala Harris, a racial minority, a

733
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 5: woman is really useful because those are people who were

734
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 5: the demographics who are in the crosshairs of the Trump plan, right,

735
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 5: and so you only have to look at the issue

736
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 5: of abortion rights to really see how this comes out. Right,

737
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,319
Speaker 5: This is an issue that really should be driving the

738
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:32,360
Speaker 5: Democratic campaign, should be because it animates younger voters, especially women.

739
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:34,399
Speaker 5: Were going to make all younger voters so who care

740
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 5: about reproductive rights and see that contraception and other things

741
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 5: are on the chopping blocks soon, really an addictim. Joe

742
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 5: Biden was for abortion rights, but he's an old Irish Catholic.

743
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 5: He wasn't really enthusiastic about it, right, even talk about,

744
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:48,879
Speaker 5: you know, restoring Row and getting back to the kind

745
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 5: of compromise before Harris is all in and restoring Row

746
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 5: isn't going to be enough, and so that's about, you know,

747
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 5: we're not going back. A chance that broke out kind

748
00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 5: of spontaneously at her Milwaukee rally is around the point,

749
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 5: not just on Rode but on a variety of issues, right,

750
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,239
Speaker 5: And so you see a real energy there and come

751
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 5: through with a different kind of spokesperson.

752
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 1: Thank you, Thank you, thank you. I'm sorry we went

753
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 1: so long. I really appreciate you.

754
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 5: Always be talking to you.

755
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 2: Emily i Can is the publisher of a substuck.

756
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 1: Heated Welcome Back, Too Fast Politics Emily for.

757
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:24,240
Speaker 6: Me heated Yay, Thanks Pally.

758
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 1: I'm excited to have you because climate is such a

759
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 1: big fucking deal. And it's funny because it's like I

760
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 1: was watching this Republican convention where they did not talk

761
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 1: about climate change because they don't believe in it. Not

762
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: believing in climate change is literally like, it's amazing to

763
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 1: me because I was one of those people who was

764
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 1: completely convinced that at some point, and this is why

765
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 1: I'm an idiot, at some point, like in COVID Republicans

766
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 1: would be like, wow, this is real. We should all

767
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 1: get vaccinated, and you know, we should really take this

768
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:02,959
Speaker 1: seriously so we don't die.

769
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:05,720
Speaker 4: And in fact, the absolute opposite happened.

770
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 1: And I think a little bit that's what's happening with

771
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 1: the Republicans and climate.

772
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:09,760
Speaker 4: Yeah.

773
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 6: I remember this very clearly, a strong feeling, even before

774
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 6: the pandemic, that Republicans were shifting towards accepting climate change

775
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:23,840
Speaker 6: and maybe starting to push for market based solutions. And

776
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 6: I remember on feeling very skeptical about that. Not people,

777
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 6: they didn't think they were going to do it, but

778
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 6: just because I thought that if they were gonna accept

779
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 6: climate science and push for market based solutions, it was

780
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,320
Speaker 6: all going to be a smoke screen for actually doing nothing.

781
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 6: And so I was wrong. But in the work, we.

782
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:48,840
Speaker 1: Shouldn't, I want to specify, we laugh to keep from crying.

783
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:53,520
Speaker 1: Oh but yes, so they did not, in fact, try

784
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:56,319
Speaker 1: to pretend to give a shit about climate change. In fact,

785
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 1: they just kept going.

786
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 6: No, there's no other routes than climate denial and dismantling

787
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 6: clean energy progress in the Republican Party. If you're a

788
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 6: Republican who wants to tackle climate age that thinks it's

789
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 6: real in a real way, there is no place for

790
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 6: you in the modern Republican crate. And I feel like

791
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 6: the RNC made that very clear. There were at least

792
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:26,320
Speaker 6: three chants as I counted, of drill, baby drill.

793
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, so let's talk about drill, baby drill, because we

794
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: actually believe it or not drill too much baby drill

795
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 1: under a Democratic president. So just explain to us what

796
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 1: the drilling landscape looks like right now, and why drill

797
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: baby drill is actually bullshit, baby bullshit.

798
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 6: But well, we're drilling more on US land than we

799
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 6: ever have before. I think that's the one. It's just

800
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 6: something that everyone should know, is that a lot of

801
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 6: the Republican fear mongering about how the Biden administration has

802
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 6: really dismantled the oil and gas in just straight.

803
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 4: He is brought if only yes, go on.

804
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 6: I don't say that with glee or anything. As a

805
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,280
Speaker 6: person who care climb change, as a climate change reporter,

806
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 6: I would say it's probably in the best interest of

807
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 6: the global climate for the US to not be drilling

808
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,760
Speaker 6: so much, but we are. In fact, our domestic drilling

809
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 6: is through the roof. That's not entirely because of Biden himself.

810
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 6: A lot of these permits were granted before Biden took office.

811
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 6: It just kind of so happens that this is a

812
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 6: big booing time for drilling in general. But also Biden

813
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 6: hasn't really done anything to prove then. And during his

814
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 6: presidency he's approved major major oil and gas projects like

815
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 6: the Willow Project, like the Mountain Valley Pipeline, and as

816
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 6: you brought up LNG, you know, he liquefied natural gas,

817
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 6: which is just I feel like for an average listener,

818
00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 6: we don't have to go too much into like the

819
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 6: process that creates liquefied natural gas turns it into a gas,

820
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 6: it turns into liquid, and you've turned it into a

821
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 6: liquid so that you can put it on a ship

822
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 6: and export it to other countries. It's easier to transport

823
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,799
Speaker 6: in its liquified form. So Biden put on these new

824
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 6: regulations for LNG that cause new permits for export plants.

825
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 6: But new permits for export plants means like it pauses

826
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:28,799
Speaker 6: the process, the like six to seven year process of

827
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 6: making a plant. So all the plants that are already

828
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 6: being built are still being built. So and we have

829
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:39,720
Speaker 6: this massive in progress leerngy infrastructure on the Gulf coast

830
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 6: that is still happening. So when you hear republic ads

831
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 6: talk about like Biden's destroying the lergy or he's destroying

832
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 6: the fossipel industry. Climate at this could only hope that

833
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 6: that was I really wish that that's what you sort, Nolan,

834
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 6: he's doing. It's based in lies.

835
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 1: It's so interesting to me because you know, when we

836
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 1: look at the climate stuff, and you and I've talked

837
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 1: about this before, there's a lot of like lying on

838
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:14,800
Speaker 1: the part of oil and gas industries because the climate

839
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 1: friendly solutions are actually cheaper. Right, So you have wind

840
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:24,799
Speaker 1: is free and solar is free, and you know, it's

841
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 1: a question of getting batteries that can hold it. But

842
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 1: it's you know, coal is like digging into the center

843
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:34,560
Speaker 1: of the earth. To get something like liquified natural gas,

844
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 1: same thing, you know, you have to drill. I mean,

845
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 1: these are things that are very labor intensive, and so

846
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 1: the con here is just to keep saying that it's

847
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 1: not ready yet, this.

848
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 6: Idea that renewables like wind and solar are cheaper than gas.

849
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 6: It's true over a period of let's say ten to

850
00:42:56,239 --> 00:43:00,359
Speaker 6: twenty years, the upfront cost is a lot to build

851
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 6: the infrastructure, but as you continue to use the energy,

852
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 6: because it's from the freaking wind and the sun which

853
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 6: us anything, there's not a big continued cost. So yeah,

854
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 6: there's like a bunch of studies. I remember one that

855
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 6: said if we decarbonize our energy, it could save like

856
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 6: trillions of dollars over twenty years. What Republicans really focus

857
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:26,239
Speaker 6: on is that the upfront costs of the transition that

858
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:30,240
Speaker 6: they're not willing to pay or don't want to pay,

859
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:34,440
Speaker 6: or it's sort of like a thing. It's a capitalism thing.

860
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 6: There's always an element of like, I don't want to

861
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 6: make the long term good decision. I want to make

862
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 6: the decision that makes the most economic sense right now.

863
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 6: If there were no consequence to burning fossil fuels, no

864
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 6: environmental consequence, no climate consequence, it would cost less to

865
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 6: keep burning fossil fuels this year. It wouldn't cost less

866
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 6: over ten years, twenty years, thirty years, And that's just

867
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,359
Speaker 6: the cost of the energy itself. Because they there is

868
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 6: such a high cost of inaction on climate change, I

869
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 6: mean in lives and healthcare costs, and infrastructure costs, in

870
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 6: natural disaster costs as climate change gets worse that it

871
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:17,399
Speaker 6: just it makes zero sense not to invest in energy transition. Then,

872
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 6: knowing all that, it's so crazy, you feel like you're

873
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 6: on psychopills listening to the RNCA, because they're like, we're

874
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 6: going to dismantle all clean energy investments. They implicitly promised

875
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 6: to hault the clean energy transition, which if your conservative conservation,

876
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 6: it just makes so little sense. And I think it

877
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 6: just illustrates how deeply in the pocket of big oil

878
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 6: and polluting industries, this party has become.

879
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 4: It's true.

880
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:49,680
Speaker 1: And I also think more importantly, it does strike me

881
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 1: that when you think back to that moment where Donald

882
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 1: Trump was in mar Lago with those oil and gas

883
00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 1: executives and he told them that if they raised him

884
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 1: one hundred million dollars, he would let them do whatever

885
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:07,839
Speaker 1: they wanted. That's really what's on offer here.

886
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 6: Yeah. Number one, it was a billion dollars.

887
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:14,360
Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure was a billion dollars. Yeah.

888
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 6: And number two, I'm glad that story came out because

889
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 6: it makes everything, it gives everything like a bit more

890
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 6: of an evil plot villain twist. But I will say

891
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 6: that I think that, based on covering the first Trump administration,

892
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 6: Trump is gonna do all those things, whether he gets

893
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 6: a billion dollars from the oil industry or not. He's

894
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:41,320
Speaker 6: gonna dissle all of Bidy's EPA regulations. He's gonna try

895
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 6: to pause all of the investments being made under the

896
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 6: Inflation Reduction Act, regardless, that is the clear priority of

897
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 6: the people that he has historically chosen to lead these agencies.

898
00:45:55,920 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 6: You know, he picks these Heritage Foundation people, people behind

899
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:03,319
Speaker 6: Project twenty twenty five to carry out what's happening in

900
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 6: the bureaucracy, because he doesn't know shit about what's happening

901
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:09,400
Speaker 6: in the bureocracy, and their priority has always been to

902
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 6: dismantle environmental regulation, dismantle research into clean energy, dismantle research

903
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 6: into climate science.

904
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 1: That's happening no matter what, right, right, right, No, now,

905
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 1: for sure it should not be surprising anyone. So can

906
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 1: you explain to me right now we're in this moment.

907
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:34,359
Speaker 1: The next five years will pretty much the damage will

908
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:38,000
Speaker 1: do us if it is allowed. Can you explain to

909
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 1: us what these five years mean when it comes.

910
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 4: To climate change.

911
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:46,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, So, not to be too depressing here, but if

912
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 1: Trump gets re elected, we're not as a planet.

913
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,399
Speaker 6: The simplest way that I can put it is that

914
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 6: there's a point at which climate change becomes the effects

915
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:03,760
Speaker 6: of climate change are to become irreversible. We're at this point,

916
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 6: and you can't get us back to a totally safe,

917
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 6: free climate change world. That's probably happening no matter whether

918
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,839
Speaker 6: we get a democratic or Republican administration.

919
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:21,320
Speaker 4: Really, you don't think there's a chance here.

920
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 6: I think there's a very low chance that we don't

921
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 6: pass the one point five degrees celsius threshold. Not global warmant, Right,

922
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 6: at what point are we stabilizing the climate? I think

923
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 6: that under a democratic administration, or under any type of

924
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 6: administration that is actually pushing for a cleaning energy transition,

925
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:46,399
Speaker 6: we could stabilize at around two degrees celsius or at

926
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 6: the very worst, but two and a half degree celsius,

927
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:50,360
Speaker 6: which is bad, right.

928
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:52,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, can you explain to us what two

929
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:55,319
Speaker 1: and a half degrees celsius looks like? For those of

930
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 1: us like myself who can't totally conceptualize.

931
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:03,320
Speaker 6: That all this horrible heat wave you're seeing during the summer,

932
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:10,280
Speaker 6: those get worse, the hurricane become more intense when they hit, wildfire,

933
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 6: drought becomes worse. You're gonna see. I think the biggest,

934
00:48:14,440 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 6: most dramatic difference between like one point five degrees celsius

935
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:21,320
Speaker 6: and two degrees celsius is that it's the difference between

936
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 6: like fifty percent of the coral reefs around the world

937
00:48:24,200 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 6: dying and like ninety nine percent of the coral reefs

938
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 6: around the world dying. There are some solutions in place

939
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 6: that scientists are working on to be able to combat that,

940
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:34,799
Speaker 6: but that's like a huge difference, And so it's just

941
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 6: the degree at which all of those weather events, ocean acidification,

942
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 6: coral reefs, the degree of which at which that gets bad.

943
00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:48,359
Speaker 6: So like two degrees two and a half degrees, you're

944
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:51,240
Speaker 6: looking at us at a truly climate change the world.

945
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 6: That is pretty bad, and that would cost trillions of

946
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:59,040
Speaker 6: dollars to adapt to. It's already a catastrophe. But I

947
00:48:59,080 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 6: do think that you wins can manage it now because

948
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 6: we're already managing it.

949
00:49:04,120 --> 00:49:07,279
Speaker 4: Doesn't it mean like sea levels rise.

950
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:11,279
Speaker 6: Yeah, sea levels rise, you're going to be looking at

951
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 6: that coastal area of Louisiana is not going to be there.

952
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 6: Scientists are pretty darn sure about that if we re celsius,

953
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 6: and that won't happen right when we reach two degrees celsius.

954
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 6: That happens over larger time scales, but yeah, probably by

955
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 6: within the next fifty per seven years. Now, the thread

956
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:31,879
Speaker 6: of a Republican administration and of not doing anything about

957
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 6: the business digital scenario is that we start to get

958
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:39,640
Speaker 6: into like a three degrees celsius, three and a half

959
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 6: degrees celsius, four degrees celsius amount of warming. That amount

960
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:47,799
Speaker 6: of warming is almost inconceivable on how that would affect

961
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 6: the global population refugee populations, war torn country populations. It's

962
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 6: a really scary situation. Both situations are scary, and I

963
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 6: think where we get into a problem is when people

964
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 6: think that like a two degree celsius world and a

965
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:06,400
Speaker 6: four degrees celsius world are the same, Like, oh, well,

966
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:09,520
Speaker 6: we got to throw up our hands because we're going

967
00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:11,959
Speaker 6: to surpass one point five degrees and then the fight

968
00:50:12,080 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 6: is over. No, Like, every single point one degree of

969
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:19,239
Speaker 6: warming that you can prevent on average in the atmosphere

970
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 6: is like millions of lives saved, hundreds of millions of

971
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 6: dollars saved. Our inaction has already kind of cemented some

972
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:32,960
Speaker 6: pretty bad consequences unless something really really big happens, like

973
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 6: a massive global energy transition. So now getting back to

974
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 6: your actual question, which was like what does the timeline

975
00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 6: look like? What does the next five years look like?

976
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 6: Or like until twenty thirty. So, in order to stay

977
00:50:47,239 --> 00:50:52,960
Speaker 6: below one point five degrees celsius, the world has to

978
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 6: reach net zero emissions. So like as much carbon and

979
00:50:58,239 --> 00:51:00,319
Speaker 6: greenhouse got as as we're putting in the abpisos, we

980
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:03,319
Speaker 6: have to also be taking a lot of that out

981
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 6: via trees. Lots of trees and carbon capture, which needs

982
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 6: to become much much better technology for that to happen.

983
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:16,080
Speaker 6: So net zero emissions by twenty fifty. Right, wow, we'll

984
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 6: reach that. To get us on track to net zero

985
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:23,560
Speaker 6: by twenty fifty, the broad can sentense us among experts,

986
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:27,520
Speaker 6: we need to have had our emissions by twenty thirty.

987
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:31,760
Speaker 6: If we're going to have our emissions by twenty thirty,

988
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:36,880
Speaker 6: those policies have to be in place of now or

989
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:40,480
Speaker 6: within the next four years. Right, it's twenty twenty four,

990
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 6: So that's the importance of the next administration. The next

991
00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:49,600
Speaker 6: administration is really the last administration that we have before

992
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 6: that twenty thirty goal of having our missions to get

993
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:58,160
Speaker 6: those policies in place. So there's a massive difference between

994
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:01,920
Speaker 6: a Trump administration and an administration for climate. We recently

995
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:05,440
Speaker 6: did an article about this, unheated where we really tried

996
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:10,840
Speaker 6: to wantify the emission's difference between a Trump presidency and

997
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 6: a Biding presidency. We found this great analysis that was

998
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:17,879
Speaker 6: done by the climate news site carbon Brief, and what

999
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:21,799
Speaker 6: they found and which we verified, which was that it's

1000
00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:25,920
Speaker 6: a difference of about four billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions.

1001
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:29,560
Speaker 6: So a Trump administration would emit four billion tons of

1002
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 6: greenhouse gas emissions more than a Biden administration would be

1003
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:35,839
Speaker 6: the equivalent of like nine hundred and thirty three coal

1004
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:39,319
Speaker 6: plants and like nine hundred million gas cars driven for

1005
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 6: a year. And that is the equivalent to like nine

1006
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 6: hundred billion dollars in global climate damages. And what's crazy

1007
00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:49,280
Speaker 6: about those numbers actually is that it's like nine hundred

1008
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 6: billion dollars in global climate damage is more under a

1009
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 6: Trump administration than Biden, right, But Biden is still not

1010
00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:59,800
Speaker 6: near the twenty thirty tar right, He's closer to the

1011
00:52:59,840 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 6: two thirtyth are yout, but it's still off. So like

1012
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 6: there's still debt and damages under a Biden administration, which

1013
00:53:06,680 --> 00:53:09,239
Speaker 6: I think is really important to emphasize. It's like, we're

1014
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 6: not solving the problem under a Biden administration, but we

1015
00:53:12,560 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 6: are preventing way more monetary and human life costs under

1016
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:21,759
Speaker 6: that administration. It's like we're on a better brack. If

1017
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 6: you could pick to be on a third track, that

1018
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:26,000
Speaker 6: was better that you should pick that.

1019
00:53:26,200 --> 00:53:30,400
Speaker 4: But yeah, Emily, thank you.

1020
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:32,200
Speaker 6: You're welcome. I hope that that wasn't too much.

1021
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:37,799
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

1022
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to hear the best minds

1023
00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:44,320
Speaker 1: in politics makes sense of all this chaos. If you

1024
00:53:44,440 --> 00:53:47,120
Speaker 1: enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to a friend

1025
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:50,720
Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.