WEBVTT - Strong Black Friday Online Spending Bodes Well for Season 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:02.400 Hey, it's Carol and Tim and we have something new 0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:03.280 and exciting for you. 0:00:03.560 --> 0:00:06.360 Everything you love about Bloomberg Radio is now in your car. 0:00:06.519 --> 0:00:09.640 The new Bloomberg Business App now featuring Apple CarPlay and 0:00:09.640 --> 0:00:10.280 Android Auto. 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:13.960 Listen to your favorite Bloomberg Radio stations anytime. 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.000 Plus every Bloomberg podcast, the latest news, and more, all 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:18.120 at the click of a button. 0:00:18.280 --> 0:00:21.240 It's free and simple to use. Just download the Bloomberg 0:00:21.239 --> 0:00:23.680 Business App on your smartphone and connect your phone to 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:24.200 your car. 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:27.360 The Bloomberg Business App now with Apple CarPlay and Android 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:30.200 Auto features. 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The Bloomberg Business 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:52.960 Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:54.520 --> 0:00:57.240 It's often running the holiday shopping season, Adobe saying US 0:00:57.280 --> 0:00:59.160 shoppers are going to span up to twelve point four 0:00:59.200 --> 0:01:03.520 billion online today Cyber Monday, after justin its initial forecast 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:06.320 of about twelve billion upward, based on stronger than expected 0:01:06.319 --> 0:01:09.440 spending on Black Friday and the popularity by now Pay 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:13.000 Later features that let choppers stretch their budgets with credit. 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:15.480 So let's get more to it and see what she's 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:18.120 hearing and seeing when it comes to our own retail checks. 0:01:18.120 --> 0:01:21.039 Bloomberg Intelligence Senior alis for e Commerce ath Leisia off 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:24.920 price retail here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. Hello, Hello, 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:27.680 were you out in full force over the weekend? I was. 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:30.680 I was in stores and I was surprised to see 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:31.760 how crowded they were. 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:33.959 It's so funny because I feel like on Black Friday 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:35.760 we were all here watching in it and they were 0:01:35.800 --> 0:01:40.160 showing like empty parking lots. Macy's was closed for Thanksgiving, 0:01:40.240 --> 0:01:42.959 so there weren't didn't feel like there were those doorbusters 0:01:42.959 --> 0:01:45.800 where everybody was lining up really really early. But all right, 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:47.640 you've seen it firsthand. Tell us what's going on. 0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:50.680 So Thursday, stores don't open, and I'm thankful for that meet. 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:53.680 I don't know, hellow you there, but on Friday, you know, 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:56.840 we were out in stores, the whole team across coast 0:01:56.840 --> 0:01:59.600 to coast, and they were packed. And they weren't just 0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:03.560 packed in the morning. They got incrementally busier as the 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:06.520 day progress. And I think that's really because you don't 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:08.920 have those doorbusters that ended at eleven. Like if you 0:02:08.960 --> 0:02:11.240 remember a pre pandemic crazy, you know we were watching 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:14.240 for are they extending the doorbuster? The deals are on 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:16.600 all day, the deals, some of the deals were actually 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:19.440 even there before Black Friday. It was for the whole week, 0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:22.639 and they've continued into Cyber Monday. So I think the 0:02:22.680 --> 0:02:26.200 retailers are adding deals. The consumers know that the deals 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:27.920 are here and they want to shop the deals. 0:02:28.320 --> 0:02:30.360 Well, with that, how do deals change? I know that 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:32.800 when I went shopping on Prime Day, that was my 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:34.959 big focus, and it seems like the exact same deals 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:37.640 are on Amazon right now that I saw last month. 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:39.520 Yeah, I mean that's the whole point, right. They want 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:40.840 to bring you the deal, try to get you to 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:43.600 shop earlier, and if you didn't get a chance to 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:45.560 catch the deal, you can come now to get them. 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:48.000 But I will tell you that these deals exist on 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:50.880 these key shopping days, so they do tend to go away. 0:02:50.919 --> 0:02:53.120 Like there were deals that I saw on Friday that 0:02:53.160 --> 0:02:55.480 I couldn't get on Saturday, and there were deals that 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:57.480 I saw on Black Friday that are the same today, 0:02:57.720 --> 0:03:00.280 so it really varies by retailer. In fact, some have 0:03:00.520 --> 0:03:04.800 added more deals, like Vans, for example, they're forty percent 0:03:04.840 --> 0:03:07.519 off site wide today and in the stores on Friday 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:09.919 it was thirty percent off apparel and buy one, get 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:12.480 one half off on the footwear. So it really depends 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:13.160 on the retailer. 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:14.640 What does it say that deals are back? 0:03:15.200 --> 0:03:16.120 Deals are back? 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:19.040 But when did they ever really really go away? 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:22.240 They they've ebbed and flowed, and even though they're back, 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:26.720 I would tell you that the deals are overall probably comparable. 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:26.959 To last year. 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:30.040 Okay, they're not that much deeper, but this is probably 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:32.320 the best that you'll get given the inventory position that 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:36.880 we're in. Remember we were way over inventoried earlier this year, 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:39.920 and retailers have really brought that level down so they 0:03:39.920 --> 0:03:42.800 don't have to discount as aggressively, but they still do 0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:43.960 have to offer discounts. 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:46.880 Let's talk about buy now, pay later, because is that 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:49.120 just a big trend for big ticket items? Is that 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:51.680 smaller like you mentioned Vans. If I'm buying a forty 0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:53.680 dollars pair of shoes, am I spreading that out over 0:03:54.160 --> 0:03:56.119 six months? Or is it really buy now, pay later 0:03:56.160 --> 0:04:00.320 focused on your TVs, your Xbox or PlayStations, bigger tickets. 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:02.880 It's everything. I mean, the retailers that have buy now 0:04:03.000 --> 0:04:05.080 Pay Later, are some of the retailers with like twenty 0:04:05.080 --> 0:04:08.040 thirty dollars tickets, whether it's some of the apparel retailers. 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:10.160 Even Amazon has buy now Pay Later this year, which 0:04:10.200 --> 0:04:12.600 is new. So it doesn't matter what the ticket prices. 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:16.520 It just matters on your credit to the extent, how 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:19.080 much buy now pay Later do you want to take on, 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:21.960 because you do have to make those payments within two 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:24.560 months of time, otherwise you start there for interest. 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:26.680 It's interesting. I feel like growing up it was like 0:04:26.800 --> 0:04:28.760 lay away. You would put things on lay away and 0:04:28.760 --> 0:04:31.000 you can make payments, but you had to like finish 0:04:31.000 --> 0:04:33.320 paying it off by a certain amount. What does it 0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:36.560 say though, Does it say the consumer is stressed that 0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:39.080 if we're seeing a lot more of buy now Pay Later, 0:04:39.160 --> 0:04:41.479 I mean, are we seeing that number go up incrementally? 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:43.359 We are seeing that number go up. In fact, I 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:44.880 have the number right in front of me. Buy Now 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:48.440 pay Later from November first through the twenty six was 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:51.320 up fourteen percent year every year, and that's Adobe's numbers. 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:54.440 And on Cyber Monday today it's expected to be up 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:58.520 more than eighteen percent. So people are using BNPL to 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:02.800 make their purchases, but people are also traveling, and. 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:03.880 You can do that with travel too. 0:05:04.080 --> 0:05:06.760 Yeah, but if you're not making choices where you're not 0:05:06.800 --> 0:05:08.839 having to give up something, are you really under that 0:05:08.920 --> 0:05:10.239 much strain? Is what I question? 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:12.920 Well, how much of that jump in use of buy Now, 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:15.560 Pay Later is that just people knowing that it's an option, 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:17.839 Because I feel like a year ago, I would go 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:19.800 into a store and they would throw it out there 0:05:19.800 --> 0:05:22.000 as an idea, but I wouldn't even consider it FIRSUS. 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:23.360 Now it's everywhere. 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:26.320 Yeah, I think they know so definitely the knowing that 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:28.720 it exists helps. But people have also been using it, right, 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:30.640 so they're getting more comfortable with how it works and 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:33.800 they're able to use it, and the teenagers are using it. 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:35.839 I mean, if you ask me who was at the 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:39.840 malls on Friday, it was the busiest section in the 0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:44.040 mall was near Abercrombie Hollister, Victoria's Secrets, Aphora. I mean, 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:45.719 those were the stories that were mobbed. 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:48.680 Well, what's interesting too is in terms of buy now, 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:51.200 pay let later, is it cheaper to do that than 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:53.040 throw something on a credit card, like I always hear 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:55.680 somebody talking maybe it was on TV earlier that right now, 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:57.920 credit cards, if you're doing anything in credit card, it's 0:05:57.960 --> 0:06:00.320 like the highest it's ever been in terms of So 0:06:00.320 --> 0:06:02.560 I do wonder if there's some thinking of like, all right, 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:04.080 I can't pay it all right now, but I can 0:06:04.160 --> 0:06:05.919 over the next couple of months, rather than putting on 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:07.880 a credit card and you start paying right away. 0:06:08.160 --> 0:06:10.239 Well, I guess it depends if you are not looking 0:06:10.240 --> 0:06:11.960 to pay off your credit card statement at the end 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:14.760 of the month, yes, BNPL is a better option, but 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:18.000 if you are looking to pay it off, I'd get 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:19.400 my credit card points in yeah. 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:21.080 Yeah. 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:24.279 Who's winning right now based on cyber Monday looking at 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:28.080 the data that you're seeing, are their individual companies, individual 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:31.360 stores that are seeing a larger kind of pull forward 0:06:31.360 --> 0:06:33.040 and demand or jump intomand. 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:34.520 So it's hard to say who will win because we 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:36.600 don't have data. But what I can tell you is 0:06:36.640 --> 0:06:39.760 Amazon has clearly been a leader in online sales, and 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:43.000 cyber Monday is about online shopping, so we expect them 0:06:43.040 --> 0:06:45.640 to really take their share of the fair pie. Now, 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:48.440 if you think about the department stores, the Macy's, the 0:06:48.440 --> 0:06:51.520 Bloomingdale's and nord Storm's. You know, they've been losing share, 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:53.880 but this is the time when people want to shop 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:56.880 department stores, so they're probably pulling in some more share. 0:06:57.120 --> 0:06:59.719 And the retailers with the deals, if you have the deal, 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:02.680 can suomers are coming because they have been putting a 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.320 list together and now they're ready to execute on that list. 0:07:05.440 --> 0:07:07.440 When were you surprised by what you've been saying. 0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:11.400 I am, actually, you know, I didn't expect stores to 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:13.760 be as busy as they were. I went into the 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:16.840 mall thinking there won't be that many people out. I'll 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:19.440 probably be busy early on and then maybe later in 0:07:19.480 --> 0:07:21.440 the evening, but kind of you know, soften up during 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:23.760 the day. That wasn't the case, and people weren't just 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:26.320 window shopping. They had bags in their hands. So there 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:29.360 were lines at some of these stores wrapped around the store, 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:33.120 which was encouraging to see because the same deals were 0:07:33.120 --> 0:07:35.480 available online, so you didn't have to go to the 0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:37.480 store to get the deal. I mean, I walked in 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:39.120 stores where I looked at what I wanted and I 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:41.280 placed the order on my mobile phone because I didn't 0:07:41.280 --> 0:07:44.280 want to carry the bag, so it was just interesting 0:07:44.320 --> 0:07:47.880 to see that the stores stayed pretty full throughout the day. 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:49.320 I mean, I was surprised to see that. 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:51.720 Yeah, and how does this continue to play out through 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:55.360 the rest of the week, through December into holidays. 0:07:55.640 --> 0:07:57.640 I think that's a wait and watch situation. So did 0:07:57.720 --> 0:08:00.600 consumers really just make that list and go full out 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:03.200 this weekend to do their shopping and are they done? 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:03.520 So? 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:05.360 How much of your shopping is done and how much 0:08:05.400 --> 0:08:06.920 is yet to remain is a question. 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:09.520 How many people are using Cyber Monday and Black Friday 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:11.920 to buy for others versus themselves because I don't even 0:08:11.920 --> 0:08:14.800 know what I'm getting people for Christmas or the holidays yet, 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:17.000 but I'm more than happy to go spend it on 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:17.720 my credit. 0:08:17.440 --> 0:08:18.440 Card, which you did. 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:19.760 Yes, exactly. 0:08:20.120 --> 0:08:22.560 I think it's always been you know, it's not everyone, 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:24.440 of course, it's a mixed batch. And there will be 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:26.200 those people that will be going out the weekend before 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:29.040 Christmas because they forgot to get a gift, or something 0:08:29.080 --> 0:08:31.320 didn't show up, or someone wants something different on their 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:34.839 list today. So that'll happen. But a Cyber Monday, Black 0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:37.920 Friday is a time when you shop for gifts, and 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:40.360 you shop for yourself because you have the deals. Now, 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:42.800 the next two weeks you may see a lull, but 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:45.560 that's normal, right, and retailers will come back to you 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:48.160 with more deals getting closer to Christmas. But then as 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:51.120 you near Christmas, the deals will likely go away because 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:54.920 at that time you're crunched to buy. And this year 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:57.600 we have a Christmas falling on a Monday, which means 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.400 you have a full weekend to shut it all done. 0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:03.680 Yes, I was surprised walking through World Trade on my 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:05.720 way home, and I guess it was around five thirty, 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:09.240 six o'clock, six thirty, and it was packed and you write, 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:11.520 people had bags and I don't think it was just 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:14.120 tourists or anything like that, but it felt like it 0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:17.040 was a pretty pretty kind of busy retail trade. Put 0:09:17.120 --> 0:09:19.840 him thank you so much. Looking forward to your research 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:21.520 over the next few weeks to see whether or not 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:24.760 this all continues. Putim Goil, of course, Bloomberg Intelligence senior 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:27.360 analysts for e commerce, ath, leisure, off price Retail. Joining 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:29.640 us in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:33.640 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:37.000 live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:41.120 Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:43.880 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:46.280 Not quiet. When it comes to the conflict in the 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:48.959 Middle East, we talked about Elon Musk. He's been over 0:09:49.000 --> 0:09:52.000 there in Israel saying he'd like to help rebuild Gaza 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:55.840 after the war in a conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:58.000 Nett and Yahoo. He's been doing this on his social 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:03.000 media platform X. Meantime, more importantly, perhaps or no doubt, 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:05.599 Israel and Hamasa green to extend a ceasefire which was 0:10:05.640 --> 0:10:09.400 initially due to end tomorrow morning in that war, following 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:13.000 some tense negotiations over the release of more hostages held 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:15.160 by the militant group in Gaza. So let's get to 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:18.319 it with some analysis. We welcome Aril Cohen, a non 0:10:18.360 --> 0:10:21.440 resident Senior Fellow at the Atlanta Council's Eurasia Center. Member 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:24.880 of the Council of Foreign Relations, he focuses on international security, 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:28.360 energy policy, also with particular expertise in Russia, Eurasia, and 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:30.880 the Middle East. He's also the founding principle of International 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:34.720 Market Analysis. It's a boutique political risk advisory firm and 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:37.040 for over twenty years he served as a senior Research 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:40.120 fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies in International energy policy 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:43.240 at the Heritage Foundation. He is on Zoom in Washington, 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:46.640 doctor Cohen, Nice to have you here with Bally in myself. 0:10:47.240 --> 0:10:51.160 The developments today, the significance of this extension, how do 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:51.880 you see it? 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:58.240 Well, the israellies are driven by domestic political pressure to 0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:03.080 get as many hostage is back home as they possibly can. 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:08.280 There is an old saying in the Holy Books that 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:12.480 one who saves one human life as if he's saved 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:16.560 or she saved the whole world. But the question is 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:21.600 when you saved that one life or two or fifty, 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:27.160 and that extends the lifeline to the worst terrorist organization 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:30.880 in the Middle East right now, maybe with the exception 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:37.479 of Kibola, and prepares them for more rocket attacks, more kidnappings, 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:41.760 and more torture and murder. Are you really saving that life? So? 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:44.840 Do you think it is wrong to extend this truth? 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:48.440 No? I do not think so, and I don't want 0:11:48.440 --> 0:11:52.520 to second guest people whose political jobs are on the line. 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:56.480 I think Natanyao is a goner politically after this disaster 0:11:56.679 --> 0:12:00.240 of October seventh, I do not envy it wouldn't to 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:03.440 be in the shoes of the Israeli Chief of Military Staff, 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:09.160 Israeli Head of the Army Staff, the chief of Staff 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:12.440 of the military and other people who will be under 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:18.960 judicial committee review and investigation. But having said that, the 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:24.800 main goal for Israel, as was articulated by Nathan Yao 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:28.439 with the support of the United States, is to eradicate 0:12:28.480 --> 0:12:33.280 CAAMAS as long as CAMAS is destroyed and eradicated, because 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:37.439 the people of Gaza, the Palestinians, both in the West 0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:42.560 Bank and Gaza, deserve better than the murderous cult that 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:48.440 raped and tortured and killed children, women and old people 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:49.960 on the seventh of October. 0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:52.240 But we are also our understanding is that it's not 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:57.360 just TAMAS holding hostages. So it becomes much more complicated, 0:12:57.400 --> 0:13:00.440 as you know. So what do we need to understand 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:04.160 about that If it's not just Hamas, we. 0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:08.280 Need to understand that the terrorist organizations in Gaza and 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:12.360 sometimes in the West Bank treat hostages, or we start 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:15.760 with ISIS by the way, as well, they treat hostages 0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:19.880 as a commodity. They buy them and sell them their 0:13:20.480 --> 0:13:25.720 criminal gangs and clans that take these hostages and resell them, 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:31.240 and it's a tragedy for these people. Absolutely, it demoralizes 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:36.840 the Israeli population. People have nightmares, people have essentially PTSD, 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:41.440 hundreds of thousands and millions of them. Having said that, 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:45.520 it's a job of the Israeli security to track down 0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:50.840 these hostages and those who hold them and put as 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:55.280 much pressure as possible, negotiate if you can, or put 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:58.840 other pressure if you need to, in order to bring 0:13:58.880 --> 0:13:59.800 the hostages back. 0:14:00.480 --> 0:14:04.679 Doc con what's next? Do we see the truth continue 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:07.960 to be extended every few days? Kind of what can 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:10.960 help end the conflict or what happens on the path 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:11.920 to ending the conflict. 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:17.080 The number of hostages left, I think is around two hundred, 0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:22.960 and they agreed that in the exchanges they're good to 0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:28.360 release ten, so ten hostages a day, two hundred, so 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:33.200 it's twenty days, three weeks after that, it will be 0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:37.120 the decision of the Israelis whether to continue the military action. 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:41.640 We see already that the United States is undermining its 0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:46.680 own credibility by grabbing Israel by the hand and saying, oh, 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:49.440 you cannot do this, you cannot do that. We are 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:56.760 undermining our credibility vs. Taiwan vsv Ukraine and others. 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.840 Well, just for a little clarification, we are seeing to 0:14:59.840 --> 0:15:02.160 make stick pressure here in the US. Senator Chris Murphy 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:04.240 of the state of Connecticut has said that the US 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:07.000 should consider touching strings to future aid to Israel and 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:12.160 its compliance with international humanitarian law. So that's what you're 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:15.880 addressing at this point, and this is and so this 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:18.680 is you think that doesn't make sense. 0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:24.680 I think that job one as was agreed between the 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:28.480 Israeli government, democratically elected Israeli government. And I'm not a 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:31.320 fan of Nathan Yao. Please let let be very clear. 0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:36.160 I think the man utterly failed. Even before the attack 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:39.640 of October seventh, he split the country, he split the people. 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:43.720 He tried for a power grab that should never have 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:47.920 been allowed. But right now Job one is destroying Hamas. 0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:52.680 And if Chris Murphy, whom I respect, I testified more 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:56.320 than once before him he is a decent man, but 0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:59.880 he is either misled or playing politics. This is not 0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:06.440 the time to have an academic discussion about humanitarian international law. 0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:10.800 For a simple reason, we did not have strings attached 0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:18.760 when our military went to Muscle, when women went to Raka, 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:25.720 and when we went to Fallujah. We cannot fight terrorism 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:30.400 and these are murderous, murderous people. We cannot fight them 0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:32.200 with two hands behind our back. 0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:35.160 And one of the things that's making headlines is Elon 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:38.040 Musk making a trip to Israel. How does that, in 0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:40.280 your view, just given what he brings to the table 0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:44.040 with Starlink, impact the path forward and how this conflict 0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:45.080 can continue to evolve. 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:51.480 Elon Musk has an anti semitism problem, not himself hopefully, 0:16:52.160 --> 0:17:01.400 but the x Twitter. For example, according to cyber Well Monitoring, 0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:09.919 monitoring organization that monitors Jew hatred online, the reports of 0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:18.080 anti semitism in Twitter, only ten percent of antisemitic tweets 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:23.320 are removed, whereas Meta and even TikTok has ninety one 0:17:23.480 --> 0:17:29.320 and ninety eight removal rates, respectively. So until Elon Musk 0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:35.159 demonstrates conclusively that he keeps jew haters out, and he 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:41.920 is trying, because just today the trending whatever it's called, 0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:48.120 the trending message the halfback hitler was right, was removed 0:17:48.119 --> 0:17:53.600 by Twitter, and thank him for that, But he needs 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:58.080 to understand that to be a credible social platform, he 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:02.560 cannot and should not allow how racism and hate on 0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:03.680 his platform. 0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:07.600 And many would agree no doubt about that, Doctor Cohen, 0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:10.399 thank you so much. Doctor Errel Cohen, a non resident 0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:13.679 Senior Fellow at the Atlanta Council's Eurasia Center, and as 0:18:13.720 --> 0:18:16.080 we said, also the founding partner of principal excuse me, 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:19.200 of International Market Analysis, which is a political risk advisory. 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:21.679 From joining us on Zoom in Washington, DC. 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:26.720 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:30.760 live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, 0:18:30.960 --> 0:18:34.240 the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen 0:18:34.320 --> 0:18:37.440 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.679 just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:18:42.320 --> 0:18:43.960 We wanted to take a look at the environment for 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:46.520 startups when it comes to the venture capital market. It's 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:50.960 been pretty tough. Nearly one in five investments was a 0:18:51.040 --> 0:18:54.720 down round. We're talking about recent fundraises in terms of 0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:57.160 dollars raised. Total VC funding has now declined in six 0:18:57.200 --> 0:18:59.920 of the past seven courses coming from Karda, which try 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.840 this stuff. So let's head to Stockholm, Sweden, where we 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:06.439 find on Zoom Unconventional Ventures co founder and general partner 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:09.480 Nurah Baby Naurah, nice to have you here. With Bailey 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:13.200 and myself, we said it's been a slow IPO market 0:19:13.440 --> 0:19:15.600 and they're not necessarily doing well once they go public. 0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:17.359 Talk to us about the VC market and what you 0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:18.200 guys have been seeing. 0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:22.120 Thank you so much for having me, And yes, it's 0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:25.240 definitely slow. But when it comes to progress in terms 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:28.639 of investing in the best business businesses, in terms of 0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:33.080 also acknowledging the best type of founders behind the solutions, 0:19:33.119 --> 0:19:36.639 we're really not seeing any progress. So I'm the co 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:39.680 founder and general partner of Unconventional Ventures, which is considered 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:42.840 to be Europe's first impact fund with a diversity lens, 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:46.480 and we've been doing these funding gap reports for the 0:19:46.560 --> 0:19:49.400 last five years, looking into what the ecosystem has been 0:19:49.400 --> 0:19:52.000 looking at, not only for the last twenty years, but 0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:56.000 particularly since twenty seventeen, where we see incredible changes happening 0:19:56.000 --> 0:19:59.679 in the ecosystem, and unfortunately we keep coming back to 0:19:59.760 --> 0:20:04.080 this same numbers over and over again. Funding for all 0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:09.520 female founding teams are literally on a slippery slow slate 0:20:09.960 --> 0:20:13.800 in terms of the numbers, sticking at around one percent 0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:17.320 in the Nordics, and that's being considered one of the 0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:20.480 most gender ecoregions in the world. Now, if we look 0:20:20.520 --> 0:20:25.280 at Northern Europe, that number shifts between an approximately around 0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:29.280 two percent, even that minimizing down to zero point nine 0:20:29.320 --> 0:20:33.440 percent in some markets. And if we compare to global numbers, 0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:37.440 we're looking at the typical two percent that is definitely 0:20:37.440 --> 0:20:40.960 not changing. And what is really astonishing at this year's 0:20:41.000 --> 0:20:43.480 report is that when we look at mixed teams, because 0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:46.440 in general we see a lot of excuses being made 0:20:46.520 --> 0:20:48.600 for well, you know, when female founders are part of 0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:51.840 a mixed team, we do know that they get funded. 0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:54.360 But when we look at the North and Europe as 0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:57.760 a market, what we see as that is actually even 0:20:57.880 --> 0:21:03.360 becoming smaller in terms of share of capital versus percentage 0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:05.600 of realms. And then all in all, when we look 0:21:05.640 --> 0:21:09.480 at the amounts, we see that even coming down as 0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:11.760 little as four point four percent, so. 0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:14.680 Net net in terms of and you guys, sounds like 0:21:14.720 --> 0:21:18.639