Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea, well, today's single best idea it was
Speaker 2: Ira Jersey. He drives all of Bloomberg Intelligence fixed income.
Speaker 2: He's truly brilliant, particularly on the short end of the market,
Speaker 2: what I call the trust market, commercial paper and libor
Speaker 2: and sofa and stuff. I really don't the repo market,
Speaker 2: I don't understand it. But what we're doing today, we
Speaker 2: had our first good conversation on the World Cup. Just
Speaker 2: a window into some of the people that we talk
Speaker 2: to every day. Ira Jersey is one of the giants
Speaker 2: of American youth soccer, hugely involved with the New Jersey Soccer,
Speaker 2: which is a hot bend of it nationwide. And we
Speaker 2: talked to Ira our first good conversation on this World
Speaker 2: Cup extravaganza that starts eleven, take way three in eight days,
Speaker 2: so we'll see on that. Drew Mattis can do the math.
Speaker 2: He's at MetLife. Drew Matis just wonderful on linking in
Speaker 2: the markets into our behavioral economics. Here is true, Matis.
Speaker 1: Everyone keeps arguing that, you know, it makes no sense
Speaker 1: that sentiments so low because everything's so good right housing.
Speaker 1: You know, if you own a home. Your home prices
Speaker 1: are up, your equity prices are up. If you have
Speaker 1: a job, you're doing okay. And the reality of it
Speaker 1: is is like, at this stage of my life, I
Speaker 1: don't really care about myself anymore. I kind of just
Speaker 1: want to make sure my kids are happy. And you know,
Speaker 1: they have trouble affording a home, they have trouble finding work,
Speaker 1: they have trouble, you know, pretty much with everything, and
Speaker 1: kind of, you know, beyond the norm for kids. Right. So,
Speaker 1: I think that's what's going on in America today is
Speaker 1: that you know, people are doing fine and they see
Speaker 1: that their home price is going up, but you know what,
Speaker 1: finding a way to kind of translate that to your
Speaker 1: kids doing better is increasingly difficult, and that's why you
Speaker 1: see sentiments so weak. But everyone's got money to spend,
Speaker 1: so they're spending.
Speaker 2: It was your Madus of met Life had two great
Speaker 2: mathematic types come in today. Alicia Levine from BNY, our
Speaker 2: chief investment officer, was just brilliant on some of the
Speaker 2: dynamics of the market, this idea of reversion to the mean,
Speaker 2: and then Dean Current showed up from Macro Risk Advisors.
Speaker 2: Here's Dean kurrent On. Moving forward with the.
Speaker 3: Math, there's the old saying timing in the market versus
Speaker 3: time in the market. You want to be in the
Speaker 3: market over a long period of time. That's when compounding
Speaker 3: of returns really works. So you just don't want to
Speaker 3: get yourself trading in and out. I think it's proven
Speaker 3: to be largely unsuccessful, the ability to time the market.
Speaker 3: You want to be risk aware. You also want to
Speaker 3: understand that this bedrock of institutional portfolio is sixty forty, right,
Speaker 3: sixty stocks, forty bonds. That just doesn't work the same
Speaker 3: way as it used to. You know, even as I'm
Speaker 3: telling you that the correlation across the stock market these
Speaker 3: stocks are very uncorrelated. The correlation between the stock market
Speaker 3: and the bond market is very high, and it's very
Speaker 3: much linked to oil. Oil is throwing a wrench in
Speaker 3: so many efforts at diversifying your portfolio because everything is
Speaker 3: linked to oil, inflation expectations, the path of interest rates,
Speaker 3: and so forth. So from a diversification standpoint, sixty forty
Speaker 3: doesn't work as well. So you have to just recognize that,
Speaker 3: and again that to me argues a little bit more
Speaker 3: for being not fully invested, right now and again. I
Speaker 3: think that's some combination of just having some cash on
Speaker 3: the sidelines, which relative to a decade ago when there
Speaker 3: was a zero percent yield on cash, now you get
Speaker 3: four percent.
Speaker 2: Yeh, that's not bad. Dean Kurnent there macrosk Advisors. After
Speaker 2: that conversation, Paul Sweeni and I looked at bt MM,
Speaker 2: which is a terminal screen with all of the short
Speaker 2: term rates. It's got to be out of the top
Speaker 2: of them. Had sixty statistics on that screen, and we
Speaker 2: forget it's a three point six percent, even a four
Speaker 2: percent market for cash and near cash equivalent. Steam currentt
Speaker 2: with Macro Risk Advisors on a podcast on Apple, on Spotify,
Speaker 2: on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.