1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:17,439 Speaker 2: Single best idea, well, today's single best idea it was 3 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 2: Ira Jersey. He drives all of Bloomberg Intelligence fixed income. 4 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 2: He's truly brilliant, particularly on the short end of the market, 5 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 2: what I call the trust market, commercial paper and libor 6 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:32,919 Speaker 2: and sofa and stuff. I really don't the repo market, 7 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 2: I don't understand it. But what we're doing today, we 8 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 2: had our first good conversation on the World Cup. Just 9 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 2: a window into some of the people that we talk 10 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:45,240 Speaker 2: to every day. Ira Jersey is one of the giants 11 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:49,880 Speaker 2: of American youth soccer, hugely involved with the New Jersey Soccer, 12 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 2: which is a hot bend of it nationwide. And we 13 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 2: talked to Ira our first good conversation on this World 14 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 2: Cup extravaganza that starts eleven, take way three in eight days, 15 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 2: so we'll see on that. Drew Mattis can do the math. 16 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 2: He's at MetLife. Drew Matis just wonderful on linking in 17 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:14,279 Speaker 2: the markets into our behavioral economics. Here is true, Matis. 18 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:16,960 Speaker 1: Everyone keeps arguing that, you know, it makes no sense 19 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 1: that sentiments so low because everything's so good right housing. 20 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 1: You know, if you own a home. Your home prices 21 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 1: are up, your equity prices are up. If you have 22 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 1: a job, you're doing okay. And the reality of it 23 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 1: is is like, at this stage of my life, I 24 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 1: don't really care about myself anymore. I kind of just 25 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 1: want to make sure my kids are happy. And you know, 26 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:39,320 Speaker 1: they have trouble affording a home, they have trouble finding work, 27 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: they have trouble, you know, pretty much with everything, and 28 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 1: kind of, you know, beyond the norm for kids. Right. So, 29 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: I think that's what's going on in America today is 30 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 1: that you know, people are doing fine and they see 31 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: that their home price is going up, but you know what, 32 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 1: finding a way to kind of translate that to your 33 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 1: kids doing better is increasingly difficult, and that's why you 34 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 1: see sentiments so weak. But everyone's got money to spend, 35 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: so they're spending. 36 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 2: It was your Madus of met Life had two great 37 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:09,960 Speaker 2: mathematic types come in today. Alicia Levine from BNY, our 38 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 2: chief investment officer, was just brilliant on some of the 39 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 2: dynamics of the market, this idea of reversion to the mean, 40 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 2: and then Dean Current showed up from Macro Risk Advisors. 41 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:24,960 Speaker 2: Here's Dean kurrent On. Moving forward with the. 42 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 3: Math, there's the old saying timing in the market versus 43 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 3: time in the market. You want to be in the 44 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 3: market over a long period of time. That's when compounding 45 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 3: of returns really works. So you just don't want to 46 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 3: get yourself trading in and out. I think it's proven 47 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 3: to be largely unsuccessful, the ability to time the market. 48 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 3: You want to be risk aware. You also want to 49 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 3: understand that this bedrock of institutional portfolio is sixty forty, right, 50 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:56,119 Speaker 3: sixty stocks, forty bonds. That just doesn't work the same 51 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 3: way as it used to. You know, even as I'm 52 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 3: telling you that the correlation across the stock market these 53 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 3: stocks are very uncorrelated. The correlation between the stock market 54 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 3: and the bond market is very high, and it's very 55 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 3: much linked to oil. Oil is throwing a wrench in 56 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 3: so many efforts at diversifying your portfolio because everything is 57 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 3: linked to oil, inflation expectations, the path of interest rates, 58 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 3: and so forth. So from a diversification standpoint, sixty forty 59 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 3: doesn't work as well. So you have to just recognize that, 60 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 3: and again that to me argues a little bit more 61 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 3: for being not fully invested, right now and again. I 62 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 3: think that's some combination of just having some cash on 63 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 3: the sidelines, which relative to a decade ago when there 64 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 3: was a zero percent yield on cash, now you get 65 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 3: four percent. 66 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 2: Yeh, that's not bad. Dean Kurnent there macrosk Advisors. After 67 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 2: that conversation, Paul Sweeni and I looked at bt MM, 68 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 2: which is a terminal screen with all of the short 69 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 2: term rates. It's got to be out of the top 70 00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 2: of them. Had sixty statistics on that screen, and we 71 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 2: forget it's a three point six percent, even a four 72 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 2: percent market for cash and near cash equivalent. Steam currentt 73 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 2: with Macro Risk Advisors on a podcast on Apple, on Spotify, 74 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 2: on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.