WEBVTT - Current Affairs 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:03.320 The Coin Bureau Podcast is a production of My Heart Radio. 0:00:03.880 --> 0:00:06.360 The only thing I think we can almost certainly be 0:00:06.360 --> 0:00:09.520 sure of for crypto in the short to medium term 0:00:09.600 --> 0:00:14.240 is more volatility. So although we will see I think 0:00:14.520 --> 0:00:17.080 we will see more rallies ahead. You know, it's not 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:20.040 organ it's not going to be strictly down from here. 0:00:31.520 --> 0:00:34.519 Welcome everyone to the Coin Bureau Podcast. This is my 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:38.040 very good friend Mike and my name is Guy, and 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:41.199 today we're going to take a look. Mike, ats just 0:00:41.720 --> 0:00:44.400 the current state of the crypto, Marky, what a go 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:47.159 on in? What are gue in? Yeah, exactly. It's been 0:00:47.200 --> 0:00:50.000 a it's been a pretty interesting last few weeks. There's 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:53.800 been a lot going on. Crypto prices have been well, 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:56.800 we've they've been going up. They've taken a bit of 0:00:56.800 --> 0:01:01.680 a steadily slowly but steadily. Yeah, we've seen bitcoin reached 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:04.760 some levels that it had sort of fallen quite a 0:01:04.760 --> 0:01:08.240 long way past. So it's sort of at breach k 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:10.640 the other day, which in the grand scheme of things 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:15.520 is not much for bitcoin, but certainly under current conditions, 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:18.200 that was you know, that was a rally that was 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:22.600 that when there was an interest rate high core, was it? Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, 0:01:22.880 --> 0:01:25.920 so this this rally was driven by by a number 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:29.480 of factors really, and the weird thing is that there 0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:32.319 in some cases they are factors that sort of you 0:01:32.319 --> 0:01:35.760 could reasonably expect them to actually tank the market, and 0:01:35.760 --> 0:01:38.840 instead it pumped it, which is quite strange. And I 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:40.679 think that's one of the reasons why I thought this 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:44.040 would be an interesting episode to do, because there's just 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:45.920 there's there's a lot going on at the moment, as 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:50.400 I said, but it's so difficult to interpret this data 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:53.160 that we have coming through to interpret everything that's going on, 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:58.680 and there's no real historical sort of precedent yeah, further 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:02.080 than you know, ten years. Yeah, and yeah, obviously all 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:06.320 of this is completely unique for crypto, but it's also 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:10.880 very unprecedented circumstances as well for the sort of wider economy, 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:13.760 and we're going to dig into exactly why that is 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:15.840 in just a moment or so. But I thought it 0:02:15.919 --> 0:02:18.600 might be useful for people listening, and this is this 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:21.320 is you know, kind of general economic terms as well. 0:02:21.480 --> 0:02:24.760 I guess it's not entirely relevant just to crypto, but 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:27.760 I think for anyone listening who's into cryptone, especially those 0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:30.160 people who are new to crypto and trying to make 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:32.320 sense of the space. I think this could be a 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:34.600 useful episode just to explore some of the things that 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:38.120 are going on in the wider economy and try and 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:40.600 try and make some sense of them, try and try 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:44.119 and understand why crypto prices have been going up recently, 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:48.720 what the sort of longer term outlook could be. And 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:51.040 of course we're not trying to predict the future here, 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:54.079 because predicting the future is impossible, but I think it 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:57.200 would be useful, useful information for people to to have 0:02:57.320 --> 0:03:02.320 and to to consider when making possible investment decisions. And 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:06.400 of course, none of what follows is financial advice. I 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:08.320 was going to say, what we're telling you could be 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:11.880 really useful for you to make some investment decisions, but 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:18.360 remember it's not financial, and no, okay exactly. So I 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:20.840 think the first thing to I think, the first thing 0:03:20.840 --> 0:03:23.200 to iterate before we go any further, is we are 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:26.200 still very much in a bear market. People tend to 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:31.880 get thank you, that's the bare market sound. People tend 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:36.200 to get very excited when prices, when prices in crypto 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:39.720 take up, and you know, constantly getting questions, it's like 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:43.280 we done, is this bare market. Yeah, are we there 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:45.640 is this bare market over can we Can we all 0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:47.520 just go and go back to when prices were going 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:49.880 up and everything was rosy And the answer is no. 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:53.640 So we are still very much in a bear market. 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:56.680 And I expect us to remain in this bear market 0:03:56.760 --> 0:03:59.720 till at very least at the end of this year, 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:04.640 until at very least this afternoon, um and quite possibly 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:10.520 on into as well. And not ye, yeah, I expect 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:13.080 them to. I I do expect these conditions to sort 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:16.640 of prevail throughout next year as well. So you know, 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.560 I could be wrong. It's as I say, it's it's 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:22.760 impossible to predict the future, but you are oracle. But 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:27.359 I am in the absence of anything better. Yeah, So okay, 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:29.640 let's talk about let's talk about two of the things 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:33.200 that are really kind of driving markets at the moment, 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:35.520 and this is this goes for kryptone kind of every 0:04:35.560 --> 0:04:38.840 other market as well, really and this is the first 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:42.160 one is FED policy, the policy of the Federal Reserve 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:45.480 over in the good old US of A. And I'm 0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:48.160 going to reference a lot of what is happening in 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:52.640 the US economy during this episode, not exclusively what's happening 0:04:52.720 --> 0:04:55.640 in the States, because there's lots of other relevant stuff 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:59.280 happening in other economies as well, but I use kind 0:04:59.320 --> 0:05:02.520 of US day because a, you know, an enormous and 0:05:02.640 --> 0:05:06.480 enormous proportion of investors, especially crypto investors, are obviously based 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:11.520 in the United States. The US is the biggest global economy, 0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:15.119 and kind of what happens in the United States tends 0:05:15.120 --> 0:05:19.360 to have, you know, repercussions across the world. So it's 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:21.520 all very you know, what happens in the U. S 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:24.640 economy is relevant to sort of almost every other economy. 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:27.560 So that's why I'm using a lot of a lot 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:31.200 of U S data, but not exclusively. Okay, So the 0:05:31.279 --> 0:05:34.000 policy of the Federal Reserve recently, Now, the Federal Reserve, 0:05:34.120 --> 0:05:36.640 as you may know, has a dual mandate. It has 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:41.040 basically two jobs. It's it's first job is to ensure 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:46.400 high employment, and its second job is to ensure sort 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:50.160 of low interesting well, basically to keep inflation under control. 0:05:50.600 --> 0:05:52.400 And the way that it keeps in the best tool 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:55.279 it has to keep inflation under control is the raising 0:05:55.320 --> 0:06:00.599 and lowering of interest rates. Yeah, so last week, on 0:06:00.720 --> 0:06:04.719 the twenty seven, the FED, the FED Board met again 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:10.360 and approved another zero points rise in interest rates seventy 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:13.640 five basis points, which was which is a fairly big 0:06:13.720 --> 0:06:16.920 hike in the grand scheme of things, But crucially, it 0:06:17.080 --> 0:06:21.000 was very much what investors were expecting. We were all 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:23.440 sort of watching the markets, you know, in the weeks 0:06:23.520 --> 0:06:26.800 leading up, and the broad consensus was that the Fed 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:30.520 would only raise by seventy five basis points. Some people 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:33.200 were saying they could go a full they could go 0:06:33.240 --> 0:06:36.800 a full one percent, a full one basis points, but 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:38.760 this would have been a very you know, this would 0:06:38.760 --> 0:06:41.840 have been a largely unexpected move, and that probably would 0:06:41.839 --> 0:06:45.239 have tanked the markets, certainly in the short term. However, 0:06:45.520 --> 0:06:48.280 it was just that it was just that seventy five 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:51.919 basis point raise that was in line with expectations, and 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:54.479 the markets kind of reacted very favorably to that. So 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:56.960 that was one reason why we saw that that pumping 0:06:57.040 --> 0:07:00.640 prices last week, Because, as I've said many times before, 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:04.400 markets love certainty more than anything else. Markets don't like 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:09.960 to be surprised. Like old women. Yeah yeah, markets are 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:14.600 essentially like old women are essentially like your grandmother. Um. Now, 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:17.840 inflation is that the reason that the Fed is continuing 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.680 to raise interest rates is because Inflation is still a 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:23.080 big issue in the United States, and it's I mean, 0:07:23.120 --> 0:07:25.000 it's a bigger issue and a lot of other economies 0:07:25.040 --> 0:07:27.960 as well. It is being felt everywhere, and you don't 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:29.640 need to you don't need to be a sort of 0:07:29.680 --> 0:07:32.240 seasoned market watcher to know that people are talking about 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:36.480 inflation a lot. Now, what the FED is trying to 0:07:36.520 --> 0:07:39.080 do is negotiate what it calls a soft landing. It's 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:42.440 trying to tame inflation by raising interest rates, but at 0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:45.080 the same time, it doesn't want to tank the economy. 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:49.120 It ideally doesn't want to push the US economy into 0:07:49.400 --> 0:07:53.880 recession because obviously recessions are bad unless you changed the 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:57.680 definition of unless exactly, which we're gonna which we're going 0:07:57.760 --> 0:08:00.960 to touch on in just a moment. Yeah, it's so 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:04.920 because obviously, when interest rates go up, the cost of 0:08:05.000 --> 0:08:08.560 borrowing increases, and this has felt throughout the whole economy. 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:12.360 And the reason why markets tend to tend to react 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:15.200 badly to hikes and interest rates is because basically everyone 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:17.680 is in debt. So the first thing you do when 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:20.040 you're you know, when the interest payments on your debt 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:23.320 go up, you quite often, you know, investors quite often 0:08:23.400 --> 0:08:26.160 sell off assets in order to you know, in order 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:29.080 to get some cash on hand to pay down those debts, 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:30.840 because you know, they don't want they don't want their 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:34.560 debts to get out of control. And this, unfortunately, is 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:37.559 the kind of debt based economy that we that we 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:39.840 have to you know, that we live with today. That 0:08:39.960 --> 0:08:42.040 is just that is just the way it goes. Now, 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:45.440 other central banks across the world are also responding to 0:08:45.679 --> 0:08:49.439 inflation by raising interest rates, but actually, you know, certainly 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:53.000 here in the UK and in Europe as well, not 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:56.480 really not really fast enough. I don't think. I mean 0:08:56.800 --> 0:09:00.920 the European Central Bank it raised rates recently. Um it 0:09:01.040 --> 0:09:04.720 made a fifty basis point raise which brought the inflation rate, 0:09:05.320 --> 0:09:09.120 the interest rate in the Eurozone to zero. Actually had 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:13.280 negative interest rates up until that point. Now, the reason 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:15.160 I think the e c B is kind of holding 0:09:15.200 --> 0:09:18.600 back on raising rates is because basically a lot of 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:24.240 European countries are very badly in debt, especially in Southern Europe, Spain, Italy, Greece, 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:30.480 and there's a there's a real fear that if if yeah, yeah, 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:33.800 the you know, it could have it could have massive repercussions. 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:35.720 And this you know, this is the way that the EU. 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:38.080 This is one of the weaknesses I guess of the 0:09:38.120 --> 0:09:41.720 EU and that you know, there is this disparity between 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:46.000 various EU economies. So um yeah. So basically interest rate 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:48.840 although interest rates are going up, the recent rises have 0:09:49.000 --> 0:09:52.680 been in line with expectations recently. Um And there's also 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:57.760 quite a lot of speculation that concerns around housing markets 0:09:58.040 --> 0:10:02.160 could mean that central start to ease off these rate 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:06.760 rises because you know, if the cost of borrowing increases 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.640 and you can't pay your mortgage. Yeah, and it also 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:14.120 means that fewer people take out mortgages because housing becomes unaffordable. 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:16.960 No one can afford to take out a mortgage and 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:21.560 make those those higher repayments. So there's a genuine concern, 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:24.680 especially in places like the US, the Eurozone and especially 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:27.760 actually China as well, that if interest rates go up 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:31.800 too high, then the housing markets there could tank, and 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:35.240 that is you know, that is something that governments really 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:37.520 want to avoid. So there is this kind of speculation 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:41.439 that these rate rises that we're seeing, they could they 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:44.640 could slow down in the not too distant future because 0:10:44.800 --> 0:10:48.480 of concerns around housing markets and and other issues as well, 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:53.800 which will explore in a little bit. So that's FED policy. Really, 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:56.360 it's been kind of in line with expectations recently, and 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:58.280 that's why we've seen a bit of a bit of 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:00.960 a pump in the market in general, a bit of 0:11:01.080 --> 0:11:06.080 kind of better sentiment, if you like. Now we've touched 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:09.160 on the R word as well, recession fears. As I 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:12.560 was saying last week, on the seven, the Federal the 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:15.920 Federal Reserve announced its interest rate rights. The following day, 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:19.120 on the twenty eight, the US GDP figures for the 0:11:19.200 --> 0:11:21.360 second quarter of this year came out. It was it 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:25.520 was two days of hot stat action. It was hot, 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:29.160 sexy st it was. It was quite something, Yeah, it was. 0:11:29.320 --> 0:11:33.480 It was almost it was almost too exciting, it really was. Now, 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:36.800 these GDP figures came out and they showed that in 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:40.520 the US there had been a second consecutive quarter of 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:48.600 negative economic growth, which traditionally it's called the recession. Yeah, technically, technically, 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:52.480 technically that is a recession. The kind of received definitely, 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:56.800 the understood definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters 0:11:56.880 --> 0:12:01.319 of negative economic apparently. No, yeah, now this is this 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:04.040 is everyone's talking about this at the moment, because this 0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:05.599 is a this is a really big deal. Now I 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:08.640 should point I should start by pointing out that the 0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:13.760 official a recession is officially decided in the US by 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:18.280 a body of eight people. So you know, this is 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:21.120 this is just these these GDP figures just point to 0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:24.120 a technical recession. An official recession has to be announced. 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.679 And these people sit there part of the National Bureau 0:12:27.800 --> 0:12:31.679 of Economic Research. They're eight economists, and they sit on 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:36.400 something called the Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is like 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:41.640 a tinder, Yeah, a tinder for tinder for geeks. It's yeah, 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:44.120 I must say, it's yeah, this is a very sort 0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:46.480 of you know, not an awful lot is known about this, 0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:49.840 you know, about this board like clander Stein, I think, so, yeah, 0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:55.440 it's you know, the chant and then ding, yeah, three 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:58.400 plumes of smoke go up. It's the recession. Um. So 0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:01.480 these guys are you know, it's their job to me 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:04.199 and and they decide and they obviously look at, you know, 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:07.720 a lot of data and and then at some point 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:11.679 declare that this is a recession or not. And they 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:18.440 haven't yet done that, and um, President, because they're just busy. Yeah, yeah, 0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:21.360 they're all busy. They're all I should actually, I should 0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:23.040 actually point out I say they're all on holiday. I 0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:25.640 mean actually the Federal Reserve governors have now all gone 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:29.080 off on holiday until September. And this is actually yeah, 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:34.079 basically two months, um, not two months and know a 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:38.560 whole month because well I think till mid September anyhow, 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:41.880 six weeks. Yeah, they get they get a decent solid holiday. Yeah. 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:45.400 So the Federal the Federal reservant that they've now gone 0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:48.280 off on holiday, and that means no more rate arizes 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:51.120 until September. And this is another reason why the markets 0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:55.960 will be exactly which the markets are absolutely delighted about. 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:57.760 So that was another reason why you know, we saw 0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:00.240 a bit of them just put that out of office. Yeah, 0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:05.480 there they are. Thank you for your inquiry as that 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:07.679 whether we are in a recession. I'm currently out of 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:11.040 office on the beach until September. Yeah. Talk about burying 0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:13.920 your head in this absolutely and quite literally burying their 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:17.120 head in the sand. Yeah. So going back to the recession. Yeah, 0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:20.000 so that the Biden administration at present, Biden actually came 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:22.960 out and said this doesn't sound like a recession on 0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:27.480 the release of those GDP figures, and yeah, that's okay. 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:31.640 Now the Biden administration, there's there's this is becoming a 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:34.920 very political issue because the Biden administration obviously has a 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:36.560 lot of skin in the game here because we've got 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:39.600 the midterm elections coming up in the US in November 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:44.200 and the current administration which is a forecast to take 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.880 a beating one way or another. But obviously the last 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:53.040 thing that kind of wants is to be official. Yeah, 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:55.840 so I think there's certainly there's certainly a lot of 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:58.800 desire within the administration to sort of hold off on 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:02.160 this recession definition for as long as humanly possible, ideally 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:09.440 until after the mid terms, um so November. Yeah, so 0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:11.880 a big you know, we've we've got this big sort 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:16.480 of political milestone coming up in the US, so obviously 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.040 that is informing whether or not we get this decision. 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:22.360 It has become a political process. And I should also 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:25.520 point out that this Business Cycle Dating Committee, you know, 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:27.920 part of the the n B e R, it does 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:31.440 actually have a habit of calling a recession after the fact. 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:33.520 And I think the reason for this is, you know, 0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:35.560 they've got as you as you kind of pointed out, 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:38.400 they've got a lot of data to to look at. 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:40.560 It's not a simple question of you know, they're not 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:42.640 flipping a coin or anything. You know, this is a 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:46.160 this is a pretty involved process. So you know, we 0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:49.200 could we could actually be already the U. S could 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:51.600 already be in a recession. It just hasn't you know, 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:54.320 they have doesn't sound like it though, Well what does 0:15:54.320 --> 0:15:59.920 a recession sound like? Bong? Yeah, what's what sort of 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:03.400 pitch is a recession at? So yeah, I mean we 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:05.000 could be in a recession. We could well be in 0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:07.760 a recession, but it just hasn't been declared yet. So 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:10.640 there's these sort of factors to take into take into account. 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:13.440 And I think, as you've kind of hinted at as well, 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:16.080 if we are in a recession, if the US is 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:19.160 in a recession, it's a it's a kind of weird 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:24.160 recession because usually a recession means obviously negative growth, but 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:27.040 it also means job losses as well. And we've you know, 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:29.440 we've seen this play out time and time again. You know, 0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:31.920 I remember my I remember my dad losing his job 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:34.800 during a recession back in the nineties, I think it was. 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.360 And you know, it's a very sort of it's you know, 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:41.120 it's everyone feels it. You know, you have job losses, 0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:43.000 people have less money, in their pockets. You know, you 0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:47.320 really feel, you really feel everything sort of slowing down. However, 0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:50.640 over in the US, the this is not the case 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:53.880 because it's been employed. Yeah, the job market there is 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:56.800 is weird. I mean, it's tempting to say the job 0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.200 market is really strong, but it's a gig economy now 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.840 or well. There are a few factors impacting. I mean, firstly, 0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:04.680 it's worth pointing out that the job market in the 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:08.240 US there are apparently two jobs for every applicant. You know, 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:11.120 there's a huge amount of there's a huge amount of vacancies. 0:17:11.960 --> 0:17:14.080 And at the last count, the US added sort of 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:16.680 four hundred thousand new jobs I think it was in 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:19.920 the last quarter or so. So that is still great 0:17:19.920 --> 0:17:23.120 from them. Like listening up for a session, yeah yeah, yeah, 0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:26.119 they added eight eight people in particular, I got a 0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:29.760 job of at the at the business session. Yeah, just 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:32.440 stood on top of watchtowers just trying to see it 0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:35.080 is that it is that? It is that it over there? 0:17:35.200 --> 0:17:39.280 No no, no, no, that's a seagull um. So yes. 0:17:39.560 --> 0:17:42.359 And also we've got things that consumer spending in the 0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:46.440 US for June was up, which is not the sort 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:49.119 of thing you expect to see in a recession. So 0:17:49.200 --> 0:17:52.240 maybe there is some validity to to Biden's saying it 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:54.800 doesn't sound like a recession. Yeah, I mean, he's obviously 0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:56.960 got you know, he's obviously got plenty of reasons and 0:17:57.520 --> 0:17:59.560 to want to say that, But I think, yeah, it is. 0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:02.560 It is. It is backed up by statistics to an extent. 0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:06.159 You know, consumer spending is up and the job market 0:18:06.359 --> 0:18:08.919 is still strong. Now, there were, as you say, there 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:10.840 are kind of there are a few reasons why. I 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:14.320 mean this, this job situation in the US is unprecedented 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:16.200 as well, and this is largely because of COVID. I 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:19.520 think because we had what there was this great resignation, 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:22.000 and this wasn't unique to the US, but I think 0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:24.920 the US has felt it in particular. Loads of people, 0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:28.800 for instance, took early retirement, so you know, they had 0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:32.240 a lot of people leaving the workforce. They haven't been replaced. 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:35.359 But also a lot of a lot of it is unexplained. 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:37.399 A lot of people appear to have dropped out. You know, 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:40.359 they still have several years of working in front of them, 0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:44.040 but they just they don't seem to have returned to 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:47.840 the economy. And everyone's kind of trying to figure out 0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:50.320 why this is. And I think there are a few. 0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:52.560 I think there are a few sort of reasons. Obviously, 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:54.760 you've got I think some people probably you know, the 0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:58.680 gig economy perhaps has has kind of hoovered up a 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:00.280 lot of people. There are probably a lot of people 0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:03.320 in sort of much less official employment, you know, maybe 0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:05.439 doing you know, maybe doing lots of side hustles here 0:19:05.480 --> 0:19:08.159 and there. I think also as well, basically a lot 0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:11.479 of people are now influencers as well. Yeah, yeah, basically 0:19:11.560 --> 0:19:17.040 the influencers sector has mushroomed like a fungus, like like bacteria. 0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:21.639 We we multiply very very quickly as influences. Um. I 0:19:21.760 --> 0:19:24.720 think as well, you know we're seeing here in the UK, 0:19:25.040 --> 0:19:27.479 you know, we we've got sort of travel chaos at 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:29.760 the moment, and airports in particular have been really bad 0:19:30.119 --> 0:19:32.920 because loads of you know, loads of companies, loads of 0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:37.000 airlines and and and also airports themselves. When the pandemic hit, 0:19:37.080 --> 0:19:39.640 they let people go, you know, they said, right, sorry, 0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:42.080 no one's flying, so you ain't got a job, and 0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:45.119 you know, people have found other jobs and yeah, so 0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:46.919 a lot of people have kind of moved into other 0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:49.000 jobs and stuff. But I think as well, there's probably 0:19:49.040 --> 0:19:51.680 a sense of a lot of people going right. So 0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:55.840 I had this job and obviously things things went bad, 0:19:56.520 --> 0:19:58.399 and I was just I was let go like that, 0:19:58.720 --> 0:20:02.920 you know, I was just priscible, And I think I 0:20:03.000 --> 0:20:04.760 think there must be a real genuine sense of a 0:20:04.800 --> 0:20:07.800 lot of people here, you know, going, Okay, why should 0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:11.760 I return to an industry now that needs me? That 0:20:12.760 --> 0:20:14.639 that dropped me like a hot potato when when the 0:20:14.800 --> 0:20:17.000 going got tough, you know, like an ex girlfriend who 0:20:17.080 --> 0:20:19.600 keeps dumping you, and you're just like, why am I 0:20:19.680 --> 0:20:24.320 returning to this? Yeah? And then you go back anyway? Now, 0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:26.440 So I think there's that. There's yeah. So there's the 0:20:26.840 --> 0:20:30.000 US job market and job markets elsewhere I think are 0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:33.160 in a very weird state at them, in this weird 0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:36.320 sort of post COVID state. So what this means is, yeah, 0:20:36.359 --> 0:20:41.639 the circumstances of this supposed recession are weird. They're not 0:20:42.160 --> 0:20:45.840 they're not conforming to what our idea of a recession is. 0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:48.240 And this is leading many people, and obviously you know, 0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:51.679 those in the administration, in the US administration, to say, now, 0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:57.120 this isn't a recession, this is this is something different. Um. Now, 0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:00.480 the weird thing was again, Now, a lot of people 0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:03.280 when these GDP figures would do a lot of us 0:21:03.320 --> 0:21:06.240 were saying, well, they're probably going to show a recession. 0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:09.560 This is you know, on a technical term, you know, 0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:11.960 we're going to have a second negative quarter of US 0:21:12.000 --> 0:21:15.920 GDP growth. This is bad news. So the markets will 0:21:16.000 --> 0:21:19.400 react accordingly, the markets will tank on that news. Weirdly, 0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:23.480 they didn't, they actually went up in Yeah. I think 0:21:23.880 --> 0:21:27.000 markets certainly price in bad news ahead of time. You know, 0:21:27.160 --> 0:21:29.800 you can, you know, any sort of season market participant 0:21:29.840 --> 0:21:31.640 can see these things on the horizon. You know, they'll 0:21:31.680 --> 0:21:35.000 have they'll have these days circled on their calendar and read. So, yeah, 0:21:35.000 --> 0:21:37.840 I think you're right in that sense. Uh, you know, 0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:40.440 that would have been most people were expecting that, so 0:21:40.600 --> 0:21:43.080 that would have been priced in. But also it kind 0:21:43.119 --> 0:21:48.000 of ties into inflation as well, because many many believe 0:21:48.080 --> 0:21:52.920 that if if the US is in recession, then this 0:21:53.119 --> 0:21:55.959 will force the Federal Reserve when they come back from 0:21:56.000 --> 0:21:59.440 their holiday in September, this will force them to ease 0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:04.439 off on on raising interest rates. So there's there's an 0:22:04.480 --> 0:22:07.800 expectation that you know, either rate rises will slow. I mean, 0:22:07.920 --> 0:22:09.760 some people seem to think that they might stop I 0:22:09.840 --> 0:22:12.000 don't think that's I don't think that's likely at all. 0:22:12.160 --> 0:22:14.359 I think interest rates are likely to keep going up, 0:22:15.000 --> 0:22:17.480 probably for at least the rest of this year, because 0:22:17.480 --> 0:22:21.000 inflation just isn't going away, and really the only way 0:22:21.040 --> 0:22:24.920 you can tackle inflation is with raising interest rates. A 0:22:25.040 --> 0:22:29.040 lot of people are also speculating um that inflation might 0:22:29.160 --> 0:22:32.520 have already peaked, certainly in the US, and actually Elon 0:22:32.600 --> 0:22:35.200 Musk put out a tweet to this effect, I think 0:22:35.600 --> 0:22:38.600 last week, you know, suggesting that maybe we've kind of 0:22:38.680 --> 0:22:42.440 seen the top, and if inflation is shown to have peaked, 0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:46.280 then again that means that rate rises will at best, 0:22:46.520 --> 0:22:51.000 you know, ease off. So again we had this kind 0:22:51.080 --> 0:22:54.680 of rally in the markets on on on this, you know, 0:22:54.840 --> 0:22:58.880 these these negative figures which under different circumstances you think 0:22:58.880 --> 0:23:01.720 would actually have tanked them. Uh So again, it's just 0:23:01.840 --> 0:23:04.679 this very very weird situation that we've got around. Are 0:23:04.720 --> 0:23:06.840 we in recession? Are we not in a recession? Now? 0:23:06.920 --> 0:23:11.280 This is in the US, but it's the picture is 0:23:11.359 --> 0:23:16.679 much grimmer elsewhere, and especially in Europe as well, because 0:23:16.840 --> 0:23:20.600 the factors that are driving inflation across the world are 0:23:20.680 --> 0:23:22.480 being felt a lot more in Europe. You know, things 0:23:22.520 --> 0:23:27.560 like high energy prices, high fuel prices, rising food prices, 0:23:27.640 --> 0:23:30.040 things like that. You know, the price of everything is 0:23:30.080 --> 0:23:32.000 going up, and we're feeling that here in the UK. 0:23:32.840 --> 0:23:36.560 Everyone's feeling it everywhere and these just aren't going to 0:23:36.640 --> 0:23:39.480 go away, and especially in Europe. We've got the threat, 0:23:39.480 --> 0:23:42.400 I mean that the war in Ukraine is continuing. We've 0:23:42.440 --> 0:23:46.639 also got you know, Putin sort of his hand is 0:23:46.720 --> 0:23:49.200 kind of hovering over the gas taps. And there was 0:23:49.240 --> 0:23:52.320 this thing just just recently, just a few days ago, 0:23:52.440 --> 0:23:55.280 you know, the nord Stream pipeline was shut down for 0:23:55.400 --> 0:23:58.080 sort of routine maintenance and there was a lot of 0:23:58.200 --> 0:24:01.120 concern that the Russians just wouldn't open it up again, 0:24:01.840 --> 0:24:03.639 and everyone was sort of holding their breath, and then 0:24:03.800 --> 0:24:06.760 they did turn it on again, but it's running at 0:24:06.800 --> 0:24:09.879 a reduced capacity. And what this means is that Europe 0:24:09.960 --> 0:24:13.120 isn't able to kind of stock up on gas reserves 0:24:13.160 --> 0:24:15.760 ahead of the winter. So we've got this kind of 0:24:15.880 --> 0:24:19.679 situation where Putin is very much you know, using Russian 0:24:19.800 --> 0:24:22.240 gas as as a kind of weapon, as you know, 0:24:22.359 --> 0:24:27.200 as leverage in this in this situation in Ukraine. So 0:24:27.880 --> 0:24:31.399 this is really weighing on European markets. But these effects 0:24:31.440 --> 0:24:33.680 are these effects ripple out, so this will be having 0:24:33.720 --> 0:24:36.240 an effect you know, on the even places like the 0:24:36.359 --> 0:24:39.760 U S which is much more energy independent than Europe 0:24:39.880 --> 0:24:43.520 is so um. And it's also worth pointing out as 0:24:43.560 --> 0:24:46.760 well that although things like consumer spending in the US 0:24:46.920 --> 0:24:52.720 is up, consumer confidence is actually down and industrial production 0:24:52.840 --> 0:24:56.640 is down as well. So and I think long term 0:24:56.960 --> 0:24:59.520 these are going to these are going to have an 0:24:59.560 --> 0:25:03.840 effect because the effect of the rising interest rates. You know, 0:25:03.920 --> 0:25:06.000 the temptation is to think, oh, well, they've risen it, 0:25:06.119 --> 0:25:10.119 their interest rates have gone up, so the market hasn't tanked, 0:25:10.240 --> 0:25:13.719 so everything's fine. Actually, interest rate rises take time. All 0:25:13.800 --> 0:25:16.040 of this stuff kind of takes time to work its 0:25:16.080 --> 0:25:20.840 way through the economy. So the effects of FED policy 0:25:21.080 --> 0:25:25.520 today they won't be felt until, you know, weeks, maybe 0:25:25.560 --> 0:25:29.440 even months down the line. So it's important to realize 0:25:29.480 --> 0:25:32.760 that we're everything is kind of moving very very slowly, 0:25:32.960 --> 0:25:36.320 so it feels like we're sort of sliding down this 0:25:36.560 --> 0:25:41.480 you know, this rather slippery slope. And as people's bills 0:25:41.560 --> 0:25:43.879 go up, and again I'm talking in sort of global 0:25:44.040 --> 0:25:45.920 terms here, you know, not just in the US, but 0:25:46.119 --> 0:25:48.920 as people's bills go up. As energy gets more expensive, 0:25:49.240 --> 0:25:51.240 as food gets more expensive, people are going to have 0:25:51.320 --> 0:25:55.159 to cut back on what's what's called discretionary spending, you know, 0:25:55.320 --> 0:25:58.960 so you know, anything treats, you know, things like clothes 0:25:59.080 --> 0:26:01.560 or go out or you know, any of this sort 0:26:01.560 --> 0:26:05.639 of holidays. Yeah, anything that's not sort of really essential 0:26:05.800 --> 0:26:08.360 is going to be your home heating, your well. Yeah, 0:26:08.480 --> 0:26:10.520 this is We've talked about this before, hasn't. I mean, 0:26:10.560 --> 0:26:13.399 this is a genuine this is a genuine concern for 0:26:13.480 --> 0:26:17.560 this winter Like this, the specter of winter this year 0:26:18.280 --> 0:26:23.160 is really really you know, is really really scary. So yeah, 0:26:23.240 --> 0:26:26.320 as as people's bills go up, discretionary spending goes down. 0:26:26.400 --> 0:26:27.959 So I think we are going to feel the effects 0:26:27.960 --> 0:26:31.399 of that very soon. And this will mean job cuts. 0:26:32.080 --> 0:26:35.320 So this will mean hiring freezers as well. You know, 0:26:35.560 --> 0:26:38.720 So this is gonna there's the long term picture, if 0:26:38.760 --> 0:26:41.400 you like. Although at the moment it doesn't seem so bad, 0:26:41.480 --> 0:26:46.160 the long term picture does look quite grim. On that note, 0:26:46.520 --> 0:26:48.919 should we take a break to compose ourselves with all 0:26:48.960 --> 0:27:06.760 this bad news? Welcome back to part two. So we've 0:27:06.800 --> 0:27:09.760 been talking about we've been talking about sort of global 0:27:10.680 --> 0:27:13.639 macroeconomic factors. If you like that have been affecting the 0:27:13.720 --> 0:27:17.200 markets recently. I want to talk now about some kind 0:27:17.240 --> 0:27:20.040 of crypto specific factors, because this is a crypto podcast, 0:27:20.119 --> 0:27:23.119 after all, why are crypto markets going up? Why have 0:27:23.240 --> 0:27:26.200 we not seen this massive sell off? Part of it 0:27:26.359 --> 0:27:28.800 has been, of course, is of course related to those 0:27:28.800 --> 0:27:31.119 things we were talking about earlier, you know, recession fears 0:27:31.119 --> 0:27:34.399 and interest rate rising GDP, etcetera, etcetera. But there are 0:27:34.520 --> 0:27:38.159 some crypto specific factors at play here as well, and 0:27:38.840 --> 0:27:42.399 I think the most important one to mention is in 0:27:42.640 --> 0:27:47.119 relation to Ethereum. Now we've talked about the transition of 0:27:47.280 --> 0:27:51.520 Ethereum from this energy hungry proof of proof of work 0:27:51.640 --> 0:27:56.080 network to proof of steak, and this this transition over 0:27:56.240 --> 0:28:00.119 to proof of steak is called the merge. And the 0:28:00.280 --> 0:28:04.720 merge has been delayed time and time again, and it's 0:28:05.040 --> 0:28:07.240 it's become a bit of a meme and crypto. But 0:28:07.960 --> 0:28:10.800 at the moment, all the news around the merge is 0:28:10.840 --> 0:28:13.879 actually good and it looks like, as we as I 0:28:14.000 --> 0:28:16.760 say this, the merge is kind of slated for the 0:28:17.960 --> 0:28:22.120 of September. Okay, so this is this is good news 0:28:22.240 --> 0:28:24.840 if the merger, and certainly if the merge goes ahead 0:28:25.040 --> 0:28:28.439 as as planned on the nineteen September without any issues. 0:28:28.600 --> 0:28:31.240 That will that will have that will pump the crypto 0:28:31.320 --> 0:28:34.320 market Ethereum specifically, but it will it will pull the 0:28:34.359 --> 0:28:36.680 whole crypto market up with it. So a lot of 0:28:36.760 --> 0:28:40.320 people are anticipating this good news in you know, a 0:28:40.360 --> 0:28:44.520 little over a month's time now. Before the actual merge 0:28:44.600 --> 0:28:47.000 takes place on the Ethereum main net, it has to 0:28:47.080 --> 0:28:50.680 go through two other test net mergers, and it's already 0:28:50.680 --> 0:28:53.840 gone through loads of mergers on various Ethereum test nets, 0:28:54.080 --> 0:28:56.680 but the final two are now on the horizon, and 0:28:56.800 --> 0:29:00.680 in fact, the first one, called Prater, is scheduled to 0:29:00.720 --> 0:29:03.640 go ahead in well a couple of days from when 0:29:03.680 --> 0:29:06.360 we record this, so actually as this comes out, it 0:29:06.400 --> 0:29:09.480 should have hopefully gone ahead the day before. Basically the 0:29:09.560 --> 0:29:12.960 fourth of August is when that is scheduled to go ahead. 0:29:13.000 --> 0:29:18.000 And then there's another one called Girly Girly spelled g 0:29:18.200 --> 0:29:21.360 O E r l I the Girly or Girly, I 0:29:21.400 --> 0:29:23.560 don't know, I hope you know's it that is scheduled 0:29:23.720 --> 0:29:26.320 for some time between the six and the twelfth of August. 0:29:27.400 --> 0:29:30.920 So if these go ahead as planned, that means the 0:29:31.280 --> 0:29:34.840 merge itself is still very much on for the nineteen September, 0:29:35.480 --> 0:29:37.760 and this has been this kind of good news, This 0:29:37.920 --> 0:29:40.760 anticipation has really been propping up the crypto market of late. 0:29:40.840 --> 0:29:43.720 We've seen, you know, a big rally in the price 0:29:43.880 --> 0:29:47.040 of Ethereum, in the price of eight, but also in 0:29:47.120 --> 0:29:49.840 a in a lot of other related tokens as well. 0:29:49.960 --> 0:29:54.040 So steth is staked ether on Lido finance, that's pumped 0:29:54.040 --> 0:29:58.480 as well. The actual Lido token itself has done very well. Weirdly, 0:29:58.880 --> 0:30:01.080 another one that has done well and in fact one 0:30:01.120 --> 0:30:03.680 of the biggest gainers over the past three weeks, has 0:30:03.720 --> 0:30:08.960 been Ethereum Classic. Now to some this may seem a 0:30:09.000 --> 0:30:13.400 bit counterintuitive because ethere you remember the split, yeah exactly. 0:30:13.480 --> 0:30:16.520 Ethereum Classic came about as a result of this hard 0:30:16.560 --> 0:30:18.240 fork in the wake of the in the in the 0:30:18.280 --> 0:30:21.280 wake of this sort of catastrophic dow hack a few 0:30:21.360 --> 0:30:23.160 years ago that we talked about, and you know, the 0:30:23.280 --> 0:30:26.880 only way that the Ethereum developers could see to sort 0:30:26.920 --> 0:30:29.760 of make this good was to split the network. And 0:30:29.880 --> 0:30:33.800 so the Ethereum Classics was Classic was the one that 0:30:33.880 --> 0:30:35.880 kind of carried on as though this dow hack had 0:30:35.960 --> 0:30:39.280 taken place, and Ethereum Classic has kind of chugged along 0:30:39.400 --> 0:30:43.640 ever since, and you know, has nothing like the sort 0:30:43.680 --> 0:30:47.480 of development or adoption that Ethereum has, but nevertheless it 0:30:47.600 --> 0:30:51.440 is still there. Now. The reason why Ethereum Classic has 0:30:51.480 --> 0:30:57.400 been doing so well is all because of Ethereum's anticipated 0:30:57.440 --> 0:31:00.120 transition to proof of steak. Because at the moment, there 0:31:00.160 --> 0:31:03.240 are lots of people, there are lots of miners basically 0:31:03.480 --> 0:31:06.800 still using proof of work to mine either. The question 0:31:07.000 --> 0:31:10.720 is what do they do with their mining machines when 0:31:11.120 --> 0:31:14.560 Ethereum moves over to proof of steak is different type 0:31:14.600 --> 0:31:18.120 of machine obviously, Well, it's yea doing a different yeah, 0:31:18.160 --> 0:31:20.920 because they you know, you with proof of steak, you know, 0:31:21.000 --> 0:31:24.000 all this this validation is done by your your staking coins. 0:31:24.040 --> 0:31:26.480 You're not you know, you're not expending electricity, you're not 0:31:26.600 --> 0:31:29.640 needing to you're not needing to go through the mining process. 0:31:29.760 --> 0:31:31.760 So the question is what they're going to have all 0:31:31.840 --> 0:31:34.640 these mining machines, what do they do with them? And 0:31:35.120 --> 0:31:36.880 what's expected is that a lot of them are going 0:31:36.920 --> 0:31:40.880 to switch over to mining Ethereum Classic to mining its etc. Coin. 0:31:41.920 --> 0:31:46.080 So obviously more mining, more hashpower committed to the Ethereum 0:31:46.120 --> 0:31:50.120 Classic network will mean that it's more secure, and a 0:31:50.200 --> 0:31:53.240 lot of people are anticipating that this could see a 0:31:53.320 --> 0:31:57.200 lot more development on Ethereum Classic because it's more secure 0:31:58.120 --> 0:32:01.040 because there are more miners participate on its network. So 0:32:01.120 --> 0:32:05.200 that guy who's got the all that is sitting on Goldener, oh, 0:32:05.720 --> 0:32:08.920 the dow Hat guy. Yes, yeah, I imagine, yeah, he 0:32:09.000 --> 0:32:11.080 could be. He could he could be feeling pretty good 0:32:11.080 --> 0:32:13.280 about it. I can't remember what happened, though, I think 0:32:13.320 --> 0:32:15.000 he might have. I don't know. He might have been 0:32:15.040 --> 0:32:17.040 forced to sell it. Anyhow, it's good news for him, 0:32:17.800 --> 0:32:21.560 you would imagine. So there's yes, So this is this 0:32:21.760 --> 0:32:23.560 is good news, and this has been helping to sort 0:32:23.600 --> 0:32:26.120 of drive the crypto market as a whole. It's sort 0:32:26.160 --> 0:32:31.640 of sentiment has has um gotten gotten better since the 0:32:31.840 --> 0:32:34.840 since the sort of disasters of terror and more recently 0:32:34.880 --> 0:32:37.400 kind of Celsius and Voyager and things like that, which 0:32:37.400 --> 0:32:40.520 actually neatly, neatly leads me on to this this this 0:32:40.680 --> 0:32:44.240 issue of these kind of bankrupt lending and borrowing and 0:32:44.480 --> 0:32:48.000 trading platforms um so we're starting to see some sort 0:32:48.040 --> 0:32:50.520 of progress with those with the likes of Celsius and Voyager, 0:32:50.560 --> 0:32:54.400 and things like that. Celsius has now officially filed for bankruptcy. 0:32:55.920 --> 0:32:58.840 And I think you could argue that this kind of again, 0:32:59.080 --> 0:33:02.840 this is this issue of sort of certainty, of of clarity, um. 0:33:03.040 --> 0:33:05.920 And I think once the uncertainty around Celsius was kind 0:33:05.920 --> 0:33:08.120 of removed in that sense, will they far for bankruptcy, 0:33:08.200 --> 0:33:09.880 will they try and dig themselves out of the whole 0:33:09.960 --> 0:33:12.560 what's going to happen? I think that clarity has has 0:33:12.600 --> 0:33:15.000 also sort of helped to boost markets a little bit. Yeah, 0:33:15.400 --> 0:33:19.920 it's although it's it sounds a little counterintuitive because I mean, 0:33:20.160 --> 0:33:22.200 something going down and under is not good, but at 0:33:22.280 --> 0:33:24.840 least okay, cool that we can just talk that off 0:33:24.920 --> 0:33:28.080 and okay, cool, it's not and I suppose it's just 0:33:28.280 --> 0:33:30.840 it's it's whether that is going to have another ripple 0:33:30.840 --> 0:33:35.160 effect on something else. Yeah, yeah, you know what what 0:33:35.400 --> 0:33:38.600 happens basically what happens now with the likes of Celsius. 0:33:38.720 --> 0:33:42.840 Voyager is also far for bankruptcy too. Now, it's been 0:33:42.880 --> 0:33:45.760 interesting kind of looking at what's been happening with Celsius 0:33:45.840 --> 0:33:49.160 in particular recently some sort of former employees have been 0:33:49.440 --> 0:33:52.480 speaking to sort of various media outlets and yeah, and 0:33:52.680 --> 0:33:56.120 and Celsius itself has now started its bankruptcy hearing. So 0:33:56.280 --> 0:33:58.960 it's it's we're going to buy the yacht. Well, oh 0:33:59.120 --> 0:34:03.040 that's that's three arrows capital. Yeah, well we'll talk about 0:34:03.080 --> 0:34:06.600 them in a moment actually, because that's there's been there's 0:34:06.640 --> 0:34:10.320 been some developments on that front as well. Um, it 0:34:10.520 --> 0:34:13.640 sounds like from what Celsius employees have been saying and 0:34:13.760 --> 0:34:15.960 from what the company has sort of been saying at 0:34:16.000 --> 0:34:20.960 the its first bankruptcy hearing, it looks like, um, not 0:34:21.120 --> 0:34:27.160 so much a case of criminal wrongdoing, but just utter incompetence, negligent, Yeah, 0:34:27.600 --> 0:34:32.080 bad practices, you know, bad risk management. The company just 0:34:32.320 --> 0:34:34.960 wasn't being run well. They were chasing these high yields 0:34:35.040 --> 0:34:38.480 for its for its customers, and um, you know that 0:34:38.840 --> 0:34:41.279 that appears to be in the situation more often than 0:34:41.520 --> 0:34:45.200 than coming up roses. Yeah. Yeah. And obviously the markets, 0:34:45.520 --> 0:34:47.800 you know, the market going down. Obviously this is related 0:34:47.840 --> 0:34:49.560 back to terror and things like this. You know, the 0:34:49.640 --> 0:34:52.600 market moved against it. The tide went out and they 0:34:52.640 --> 0:34:58.200 were swimming naked paraphrase Warren Buffett. So the what happens 0:34:58.239 --> 0:35:02.040 now is this protracted process, this protracted bankruptcy process gets 0:35:02.120 --> 0:35:06.080 underway and with the ultimate aim of kind of making 0:35:06.280 --> 0:35:11.319 Celsius users whole again. Now, this will this will take 0:35:11.360 --> 0:35:13.800 a long time. This could take we we did a 0:35:13.880 --> 0:35:16.320 video on it recently, we reckon It could take between 0:35:16.400 --> 0:35:20.000 sort of two and four years um for you know, 0:35:20.120 --> 0:35:22.680 for that that is for all Celsius users to get there, 0:35:22.719 --> 0:35:27.160 to get their funds back, um. And what will as 0:35:27.280 --> 0:35:29.359 I think, as I've said before, you know, the people 0:35:29.440 --> 0:35:32.200 who had a lot of money, the big whales on Celsius, 0:35:32.320 --> 0:35:35.160 they will get their money back first, and then you know, 0:35:35.719 --> 0:35:37.960 the little guys will just have to kind of wait 0:35:38.000 --> 0:35:41.600 in line. However, you know, at least this process is 0:35:41.680 --> 0:35:44.480 in train. That is, that is something. And I think 0:35:44.520 --> 0:35:47.400 there's also a sense across the crypto markets that in 0:35:47.520 --> 0:35:51.640 the wake of these collapses, a lot of leverage has 0:35:51.719 --> 0:35:54.600 gotten flushed out of the system, a lot of forced selling, 0:35:54.840 --> 0:35:57.200 you know, that that that that these companies and others 0:35:57.239 --> 0:36:00.160 have been you know, have been obliged to do. At 0:36:00.480 --> 0:36:03.560 seems and I say this with you know, touch Wood, 0:36:03.840 --> 0:36:06.080 that seems to be coming to an end. That doesn't 0:36:06.080 --> 0:36:08.400 seem to be quite so much forced selling going on. 0:36:08.840 --> 0:36:11.120 So a lot of people are kind of hopeful that 0:36:11.280 --> 0:36:14.360 I guess the worst is over in that respect, and 0:36:14.440 --> 0:36:17.000 this could be having you know, a kind of this 0:36:17.120 --> 0:36:19.440 could be being felt in in the markets as well. 0:36:20.440 --> 0:36:23.200 Um and yeah, in relation to what you were saying 0:36:23.200 --> 0:36:25.759 about Three Arrows Capital, you know, this disgraced head front, 0:36:26.480 --> 0:36:28.800 they that that is in the process of being liquidated 0:36:28.840 --> 0:36:31.560 as well. Now that there is concern that obviously it's 0:36:31.600 --> 0:36:34.440 assets will have to be sold off in order to 0:36:34.920 --> 0:36:37.880 you know, in order to to to make good you know, 0:36:38.000 --> 0:36:40.719 investors and things like that, this could exert some cell 0:36:40.800 --> 0:36:43.920 pressure down the lines. So you know, it's it's we're 0:36:43.960 --> 0:36:47.040 not in the clear yet by any sense. What was 0:36:47.120 --> 0:36:50.399 interesting was just the founders of Three Arrows Capital, Kyle 0:36:50.520 --> 0:36:55.200 Davis and Josue they gave an interview to to Bloomberg recently. 0:36:55.200 --> 0:36:58.040 They kind of surfaced, if you like, they've basically been 0:36:58.080 --> 0:37:00.560 in hiding for the past few weeks, and they kind 0:37:00.560 --> 0:37:04.560 of surfaced to give this interview to Bloomberg, which didn't 0:37:04.600 --> 0:37:07.480 go down. Well. Is it sort of on par with 0:37:08.040 --> 0:37:11.600 Prince Andrew? Yeah, Yeah, it's that it left that same 0:37:11.719 --> 0:37:13.600 sort of bad smell. It's that, you know, it's that 0:37:13.680 --> 0:37:16.800 sort of thing a pizza express. They didn't claim to 0:37:16.880 --> 0:37:20.200 be in in a pizza express and working at the time. Um. Yeah, 0:37:20.280 --> 0:37:23.400 it was very sort of you know, there was a 0:37:23.520 --> 0:37:25.200 sense that they were sort of trying to you know, 0:37:25.400 --> 0:37:28.319 trying to put the blame elsewhere, and that they said 0:37:28.360 --> 0:37:30.359 some silly things like one of the guys was like, well, 0:37:30.680 --> 0:37:32.640 you know, everyone thinks we were living it up. I 0:37:32.680 --> 0:37:37.640 mean I only earned two houses in Singapore, only two, 0:37:37.760 --> 0:37:41.000 you poor thing, and two jags. Yeah, it's I've only 0:37:41.040 --> 0:37:44.440 got two. I've only got two jaguars. Um, as you 0:37:44.520 --> 0:37:47.120 pointed out, they've got this yacht as well. M P. 0:37:47.400 --> 0:37:50.279 And obviously the yacht was brought into the quote here, 0:37:50.320 --> 0:37:53.200 I'll read it out. The yacht apparently was quote bought 0:37:53.320 --> 0:37:55.719 over a year ago and commissioned to be built and 0:37:55.960 --> 0:37:59.360 used in Europe. That was your end quote. That was. 0:37:59.440 --> 0:38:01.440 That was the sort of explanation of it. It's like, 0:38:02.680 --> 0:38:05.600 so that's all right then, always bo always bored over 0:38:05.680 --> 0:38:10.239 a year ago. That was that's yesterday's news. Yeah, come on, 0:38:10.480 --> 0:38:15.200 forget the yacht. I've only got one yacht and it's 0:38:15.239 --> 0:38:19.840 for your they need cheering up. Come on, dude, the 0:38:19.960 --> 0:38:23.480 yacht is not the issue here. Um. Yeah, it was. 0:38:23.960 --> 0:38:29.160 It was very board of that yacht, just just part 0:38:29.200 --> 0:38:33.359 of the board. Yacht club. Just look past the yacht people, please, 0:38:33.440 --> 0:38:36.480 can we stop talking about the yacht? Yeah, so there 0:38:36.600 --> 0:38:39.839 was those guys sort I don't think that you had 0:38:39.880 --> 0:38:42.120 any particular effect on the market. But where can I 0:38:42.160 --> 0:38:45.480 watch that Bloomberg into Bloomberg. It's yeah, it's not a 0:38:45.600 --> 0:38:47.759 it's not a videotaped and I'll leave a link to 0:38:47.840 --> 0:38:50.680 it in the show notes. People can have a look 0:38:50.719 --> 0:38:53.040 at it, because if it was, it would just be 0:38:53.160 --> 0:38:57.520 memed beyond. Yeah. Yeah, and I think probably for that reason, 0:38:58.920 --> 0:39:01.800 you know, they probably turned down any any request to 0:39:01.880 --> 0:39:08.520 film as well. Um, and yeah, I mean like very quiet, 0:39:09.400 --> 0:39:13.200 like do kuon the terror guy, very very quiet. A 0:39:13.320 --> 0:39:17.040 lot of people have gone very quiet radio silence, Yeah, 0:39:17.120 --> 0:39:21.680 real radio silence. And I mean, you know, it's understandable. 0:39:21.760 --> 0:39:24.359 I'm sure they've got other things that we do. Yeah, 0:39:24.400 --> 0:39:28.120 you'd think so, you'd think so Voyager as well. I mean, 0:39:28.600 --> 0:39:31.520 this is this was just crazy. It's so Voyager has 0:39:31.600 --> 0:39:35.239 been well is obviously in the bankruptcy process as well. 0:39:35.800 --> 0:39:39.880 But Voyager had also claimed on its website that it 0:39:40.080 --> 0:39:43.279 was that it was f d i C covered the 0:39:43.520 --> 0:39:47.920 Federal Deposit Insurance corporation. Um, now that we have an 0:39:47.960 --> 0:39:51.879 equivalent here in the UK, it's that, yeah, exactly Here 0:39:51.920 --> 0:39:54.360 in the UK. It's called the f s c S, 0:39:54.440 --> 0:39:58.160 the Financial Services Compensation scheme. Basically, your deposits are are 0:39:58.239 --> 0:40:00.279 covered up to a certain amount. And Voyage it was 0:40:00.320 --> 0:40:02.880 claiming on its website that it was f d I 0:40:02.960 --> 0:40:05.839 c ensured, so people were looking at it and go, oh, well, 0:40:05.880 --> 0:40:07.640 it must be legit, you know, because even if it 0:40:07.680 --> 0:40:10.600 does go under, it's covered. My deposits are covered. This 0:40:11.120 --> 0:40:14.920 this was this was not true. It's basically Voyagers Bank, 0:40:15.360 --> 0:40:18.560 the bank that Voyager used was f d I C protected. 0:40:18.920 --> 0:40:24.480 Voyager itself wasn't. And Voyager has now been instructed in 0:40:24.640 --> 0:40:29.480 no uncertain terms to remove that from its website. So 0:40:30.040 --> 0:40:31.839 I'm sure that will make everyone feel a lot better. 0:40:31.960 --> 0:40:37.880 Yeah yeah, okay, yeah, so criminal, Well, I want I 0:40:37.880 --> 0:40:39.520 suppose they're gonna be sued, but what they're going to 0:40:39.560 --> 0:40:43.560 see them for? Yeah, gone, yeah, it's yeah, it's it's 0:40:43.920 --> 0:40:46.000 there's there's so much more to you know, to come 0:40:46.000 --> 0:40:49.800 out over this story and stuff, but yeah, it's it 0:40:50.000 --> 0:40:54.279 just looks like it looks like, yeah, I think that's that. 0:40:54.400 --> 0:40:57.759 I think that's the technical technic anyhow, So that's kind 0:40:57.760 --> 0:41:01.719 of crypto related factors. I'm not I'm not too sure 0:41:01.840 --> 0:41:05.400 whether you know, what's been going on with Celsius and 0:41:05.480 --> 0:41:07.279 Voyager and and all the rest of it. I'm not 0:41:07.360 --> 0:41:10.120 sure whether that's impacted too much on the markets. But 0:41:10.200 --> 0:41:12.799 as I say, I think certainly that kind of resolution 0:41:12.880 --> 0:41:14.960 in the case of Celsius, I think that that did 0:41:15.080 --> 0:41:17.480 bring has brought a little bit of clarity to things. 0:41:18.480 --> 0:41:20.399 I just want to cut touch briefly on a couple 0:41:20.440 --> 0:41:22.480 of other sort of crypto specific things or things that 0:41:22.560 --> 0:41:25.360 I think you know are moving the crypto markets. In particular, 0:41:25.760 --> 0:41:28.560 we had some we saw some fairly decent some good 0:41:28.640 --> 0:41:31.799 news and bad news from the tech sector last week. Now, 0:41:32.160 --> 0:41:35.680 crypto is very much correlated to tech stocks, particularly those 0:41:35.719 --> 0:41:38.920 on the NASDAC at the momentum. And we had some 0:41:39.040 --> 0:41:42.640 earnings reports from last week. Now, Apple and Amazon both 0:41:42.719 --> 0:41:47.759 surpassed expectations. Apple has Apple did really quite well. It's better, 0:41:47.920 --> 0:41:52.120 and it's now back to number one company by market cap, 0:41:52.719 --> 0:41:56.560 which is just crazy. Um. And I mean it's interesting 0:41:56.640 --> 0:42:01.000 that because that's what something is. They're quite luxury items. Yeah, well, yeah, 0:42:01.040 --> 0:42:03.640 you'd I mentioned so and also just with the supply 0:42:03.840 --> 0:42:06.880 chain that is just obviously I thought was decimated. I 0:42:06.920 --> 0:42:09.439 would have thought they would have struggled to be making things. Yeah, 0:42:10.080 --> 0:42:13.040 or do they have they with it? Did they predict that? 0:42:13.160 --> 0:42:16.520 And and and sort of I'm not sure. I think probably. 0:42:16.560 --> 0:42:19.720 I mean, Apple was certainly impacted by supply changes, especially 0:42:19.760 --> 0:42:23.160 as a lot of its products are put together in China. Um. 0:42:23.600 --> 0:42:27.400 I think probably the reason why it surpassed expectations in earnings, 0:42:27.640 --> 0:42:30.520 um because the expectations were low. The expectation, Yeah, I 0:42:30.520 --> 0:42:32.360 think we're pretty low. I think you know, these supply 0:42:32.520 --> 0:42:36.080 chains are starting to sort of grind wheat finally coming 0:42:36.120 --> 0:42:39.000 out of the Ukraine. Yeah. Yeah, So you know, it 0:42:39.160 --> 0:42:40.760 looks like, I mean, we're not out of the woods 0:42:40.840 --> 0:42:42.680 in any sense yet. And you know, if we get 0:42:42.880 --> 0:42:45.280 this is you know, if we get more COVID lockdowns 0:42:45.320 --> 0:42:48.880 in China or elsewhere, that could be a real disruptive factor. 0:42:49.480 --> 0:42:51.680 So but it does look like they're starting to sort 0:42:51.680 --> 0:42:54.520 of grind back into into life again. So that could be. 0:42:54.640 --> 0:42:56.759 But you know, one of the reasons why Apple is 0:42:56.800 --> 0:43:01.560 looking better. Um, Google was slightly below expectations, but not 0:43:01.719 --> 0:43:04.759 too bad. You know, it was so Google's had or alphabet, 0:43:04.800 --> 0:43:08.400 you know, Google's parents coming That was okay, Microsoft and 0:43:08.560 --> 0:43:13.400 Meta formally Facebook didn't do too well though, um so 0:43:13.640 --> 0:43:15.279 we had a kind of mixed bag on the tech 0:43:15.360 --> 0:43:18.000 sector on the tech earnings front. But all in all, 0:43:18.200 --> 0:43:20.480 you know, if if the likes of Apple and Amazon 0:43:20.520 --> 0:43:22.160 are doing well, you know, I think a lot of 0:43:22.200 --> 0:43:25.440 people interpreted this as a sign that maybe things weren't 0:43:25.520 --> 0:43:28.520 quite as bad as some people would lead you to believe, because, 0:43:28.600 --> 0:43:31.480 as you say, you know, if if we are in 0:43:31.520 --> 0:43:34.320 a recession, if people are tightening their belts, you'd imagine 0:43:34.360 --> 0:43:36.800 that would hit you know, people would buy you know, 0:43:36.960 --> 0:43:39.520 people would put off buying that iPhone, or you know, 0:43:39.560 --> 0:43:42.520 they wouldn't be buying their usual levels of crap on Amazon. 0:43:42.520 --> 0:43:45.560 I mean, I'm still on what is this one? I 0:43:45.600 --> 0:43:48.640 didn't get the last one and improugal of you. I'm 0:43:48.760 --> 0:43:52.640 normally normally Apple fanboy that are just just pump pump, 0:43:52.719 --> 0:43:55.520 pump whatever. Cash I've got into a new new iPhone 0:43:55.560 --> 0:43:58.920 really yeah, but I just I haven't for the last year, 0:43:59.440 --> 0:44:02.200 and I've been thinking about it because the new one 0:44:02.200 --> 0:44:05.600 doesn't look that great. Okay, Well, anyway, this is now 0:44:05.640 --> 0:44:09.120 an Apple podcast. Watch Watch Apple's share price nose dive 0:44:09.200 --> 0:44:14.439 as this comes. Oh my work didn't buy a new iPhone. Yes, 0:44:14.520 --> 0:44:17.359 so a bit of a mixed bag from tech. But yeah, 0:44:17.360 --> 0:44:20.759 I think some people can interpret those decent earnings from 0:44:20.800 --> 0:44:23.200 Apple and Amazon as maybe a sign that things aren't 0:44:23.239 --> 0:44:24.840 so bad. So that could have had an effect on 0:44:24.880 --> 0:44:27.320 the market. I think, like I said earlier on in 0:44:27.400 --> 0:44:30.880 the episode, I think we're still you know, we're that 0:44:31.000 --> 0:44:33.960 bad news is going to make itself felt later on, 0:44:34.200 --> 0:44:39.920 So that's worth being aware of. Another crypto specific factor, Now, 0:44:40.000 --> 0:44:41.960 this is related to coin Base, but this is not 0:44:42.360 --> 0:44:44.719 unique to coin Base. Basically, coin Base is having a 0:44:44.840 --> 0:44:48.600 rough time, not as rough as some crypto companies. Obviously, um, 0:44:49.000 --> 0:44:52.680 it's under some of one of its former employees is 0:44:52.760 --> 0:44:57.920 under investigation for insider trading. ARC invest, which is a big, 0:44:58.480 --> 0:45:01.640 you know, a big investor. Coin Base recently dumped one 0:45:01.760 --> 0:45:06.960 point four million coin Base shares at a loss. Um, 0:45:07.680 --> 0:45:10.080 and you know, this is this is bad news. This 0:45:10.239 --> 0:45:12.799 is a bad look for the company. It's also it's 0:45:12.800 --> 0:45:15.799 also had to lay off a lot of people. It's basically, yeah, 0:45:15.920 --> 0:45:18.400 coin Base hasn't had much good news recently. Now, obviously 0:45:18.440 --> 0:45:20.280 coin Base is one of the most well known crypto 0:45:20.360 --> 0:45:22.520 companies out there. So this does have an effect on 0:45:22.600 --> 0:45:25.000 the rest of the market. But the real concern for 0:45:25.080 --> 0:45:28.800 coin Base is that it's being investigated by the SEC. 0:45:29.920 --> 0:45:33.400 And yes, the SEC recently came out and said that 0:45:33.640 --> 0:45:36.759 nine assets, that nine crypto assets that coin Base had 0:45:36.800 --> 0:45:40.120 listed on its platform, it the SEC considered them to 0:45:40.200 --> 0:45:43.439 be securities. Now we've talked about securities a lot before. 0:45:43.640 --> 0:45:46.280 We know, you know what happens if the SEC thinks 0:45:46.760 --> 0:45:49.680 something that someone is selling unregistered securities in the US, 0:45:49.760 --> 0:45:54.719 you know, it is bad news. So the SEC is, yeah, 0:45:54.880 --> 0:45:59.279 is sniffing around coin Base, and um, it looks like 0:45:59.480 --> 0:46:01.680 I think the SEC seems to kind of have the 0:46:01.719 --> 0:46:03.479 wind in it sails a little bit at the moment. 0:46:04.120 --> 0:46:06.480 So I think this is something that's going to weigh 0:46:06.640 --> 0:46:09.759 on the crypto market in you know, in the in 0:46:09.880 --> 0:46:14.200 the not thinking. That's one of the reasons why I think, yeah, 0:46:14.200 --> 0:46:19.719 we're we're not. Is this ripple sorry XRP. Yeah, that 0:46:20.080 --> 0:46:22.840 that case is still dragging through that I thought there was. 0:46:23.120 --> 0:46:24.879 I mean, some people are saying it's going to pump, 0:46:25.000 --> 0:46:27.520 some people are saying it's not. Some people are saying, hey, 0:46:27.760 --> 0:46:30.279 you know what they could actually win this. They could 0:46:30.360 --> 0:46:34.360 certainly win the case. Yeah, we're interestingly, the SEC is 0:46:34.400 --> 0:46:38.040 actually pursuing another case against another much smaller project called 0:46:38.160 --> 0:46:42.200 Library Um and it's alleging that it's sold it's it's 0:46:42.320 --> 0:46:46.560 crypto asset as as an unregistered security and there's a 0:46:46.640 --> 0:46:50.280 judgment expected on this in the next couple of months, 0:46:50.640 --> 0:46:53.760 I think, and people are watching this very very closely 0:46:53.840 --> 0:46:56.799 because it may set a precedent. Yeah, and if it does, 0:46:56.920 --> 0:47:00.120 if the SEC wins that case, that could be that 0:47:00.200 --> 0:47:02.040 could be bad news, not just for Ripple, but for 0:47:02.120 --> 0:47:04.000 the you know, for the rest of the crypto industry. 0:47:04.120 --> 0:47:07.160 So the SEC is kind of like, you know, it's 0:47:07.160 --> 0:47:10.440 a bit of an unexploded bomb under the crypto market 0:47:10.520 --> 0:47:12.560 at the moment, and we're going to have to keep 0:47:12.600 --> 0:47:15.800 a very close eye on on what on what Gary 0:47:15.840 --> 0:47:18.040 Gensler and his gang are up to, because yeah, I 0:47:18.080 --> 0:47:20.600 think this is something that's going to impact further down 0:47:20.680 --> 0:47:24.000 the line, Okay, um, I want to look ahead to 0:47:24.920 --> 0:47:27.840 what could be coming next for both the wider you know, 0:47:28.000 --> 0:47:30.360 for the wider world and also for crypto. So should 0:47:30.360 --> 0:47:31.840 we just take a quick break before we do that. 0:47:47.400 --> 0:47:49.799 We're back four parts three where we're going to We're 0:47:49.840 --> 0:47:53.800 going to look ahead what could be on the horizon 0:47:54.040 --> 0:47:58.640 keyword there could not predicting the future here, So what 0:47:58.800 --> 0:48:01.000 could first of all, what could be coming next for 0:48:01.719 --> 0:48:06.600 the world, Well, I think definitely prepare for more volatility 0:48:06.960 --> 0:48:10.600 in the markets. As I said earlier, the situation, especially 0:48:10.680 --> 0:48:14.400 in places like Europe, is not looking good and is 0:48:14.560 --> 0:48:16.600 I think only going to get worse as winter sets in, 0:48:16.680 --> 0:48:21.280 as as whether gets colder. So I think continued disruption 0:48:21.480 --> 0:48:25.040 from the war in Ukraine and just a worsening economic 0:48:25.120 --> 0:48:27.360 situation in Europe as a result of that. That is 0:48:27.440 --> 0:48:29.680 something I think that is pretty much nailed on for 0:48:29.760 --> 0:48:32.839 the next few months. I'd love to see some kind 0:48:32.880 --> 0:48:35.120 of resolution for that, but it's it's very hard to 0:48:35.200 --> 0:48:38.480 see that situation being resolved in the in the certainly 0:48:38.520 --> 0:48:41.799 in the short term. Um And I think as well, 0:48:42.040 --> 0:48:45.200 you know, this situation, as we see energy prices soaring, 0:48:45.400 --> 0:48:47.360 I think this could have a real knock on effect 0:48:47.480 --> 0:48:51.160 to just kind of the fabric of society, especially in 0:48:51.200 --> 0:48:53.480 Europe and elsewhere. You know, the As I said, these 0:48:53.520 --> 0:48:56.600 things tend to ripple out. I think as well, we're 0:48:56.640 --> 0:48:59.440 going to see because of this worsening situation in Europe. 0:48:59.440 --> 0:49:00.880 I think we're going to see a lot of political 0:49:00.960 --> 0:49:03.960 upheaval as well. I mean, the Italian Prime Minister Mario Druggie, 0:49:04.200 --> 0:49:08.399 he's already been sort of forced to resign. We're seeing 0:49:08.480 --> 0:49:11.239 unrest in the Netherlands. We've seen kind of farmers protests 0:49:11.520 --> 0:49:13.480 over I mean, this is, you know, very much related 0:49:13.520 --> 0:49:16.719 to environmental policies, but I think I think it's worth 0:49:16.800 --> 0:49:18.600 looking at it in a wider context as well. I 0:49:18.640 --> 0:49:20.920 think we're going to see a lot of theories on 0:49:21.000 --> 0:49:24.960 this as well. Like Sri Lanka. Yeah, that that rad 0:49:28.160 --> 0:49:32.200 Pas the family basically screwed the whole country, insisting that 0:49:32.280 --> 0:49:35.560 everything we're just gonna be organic and then they couldn't 0:49:35.600 --> 0:49:38.760 grow enough that way just but but not even no foresight. 0:49:38.840 --> 0:49:40.480 Then it's kind of like, okay, cool, no one can 0:49:40.560 --> 0:49:43.560 eat now, no one can afford the land, and someone's 0:49:43.600 --> 0:49:45.919 going to buy it all. I wonder who. Yeah, Yeah, 0:49:46.200 --> 0:49:49.359 that's the situation in Sri Lanka is really really bad, 0:49:49.640 --> 0:49:52.000 and I mean I think we're going to see we're 0:49:52.000 --> 0:49:53.359 going to see a repeat of that in a lot 0:49:53.400 --> 0:49:57.040 of places, and quite possibly in Europe as well. Well. Yeah, 0:49:57.040 --> 0:49:59.200 it's happening in the Netherlands. It's happening in You've got 0:49:59.280 --> 0:50:04.040 to use this fertilizer or you can't use this fertilizer, 0:50:04.239 --> 0:50:07.200 I can't meet yeah, nitrogen in it or something like that, 0:50:07.360 --> 0:50:09.719 and it's just like, well, Dutch fire. Yeah. The Dutch 0:50:09.800 --> 0:50:13.279 farmers were like, well, you know, we can't grow enough 0:50:13.320 --> 0:50:16.400 food then, um And they got in there as they 0:50:16.480 --> 0:50:19.520 got in their tractors and made their presence felt so. 0:50:19.800 --> 0:50:22.120 And I think this is only going to get more 0:50:22.200 --> 0:50:25.399 pronounced as as things get tougher, you know, as people 0:50:25.400 --> 0:50:28.600 struggle to heat their homes or afford enough food, and 0:50:29.080 --> 0:50:31.600 you know, as job cuts bite, and as as recession 0:50:31.680 --> 0:50:36.600 makes itself felt um. So, I think that is something 0:50:36.719 --> 0:50:40.600 that is in the immediate future for Europe and other 0:50:40.680 --> 0:50:43.360 parts of the world as well. We've also had the 0:50:43.520 --> 0:50:45.400 the i m F, the International Monetary Fund, I mean 0:50:45.440 --> 0:50:47.440 that forecast that the world heading is going to head 0:50:47.480 --> 0:50:51.880 into recession over the coming months, mostly because of inflation. Now, 0:50:52.160 --> 0:50:54.960 one economy that we haven't really talked about an awful lot. 0:50:54.960 --> 0:50:56.799 We've talked a lot about the US, We've talked quite 0:50:56.800 --> 0:50:59.640 a bit about Europe. We haven't really discussed China either, 0:51:00.320 --> 0:51:04.360 and China, China and China has its fair share of 0:51:04.440 --> 0:51:08.920 problems too, and this is largely related to the property market. Um. 0:51:09.560 --> 0:51:11.400 We've had a lot, We've seen a lot, and it's 0:51:11.480 --> 0:51:14.319 it's difficult to get a clear sense of what's going 0:51:14.360 --> 0:51:18.120 on in China because they are suppression. Yeah, they are, 0:51:18.280 --> 0:51:20.080 they are very much. They've very much got a sort 0:51:20.080 --> 0:51:23.480 of suppression vibe going on. And you know it's well 0:51:23.560 --> 0:51:26.560 I've speculated in in YouTube videos before that you know, 0:51:26.680 --> 0:51:30.960 China tends to sort of massage its GDP figures up. UM. 0:51:31.400 --> 0:51:34.880 So it's very difficult to get a clear sense of 0:51:35.120 --> 0:51:37.880 what exactly is going on in the Chinese economy because 0:51:38.320 --> 0:51:42.320 they don't want us to know. Um. But there's certainly 0:51:42.440 --> 0:51:45.239 signs that the housing market there, which is massive, it 0:51:45.360 --> 0:51:50.160 makes up an enormous proportion of of the Chinese economy um, 0:51:50.440 --> 0:51:53.200 and property has for a long time been the sort 0:51:53.239 --> 0:51:56.360 of number one investment for people in China. That is 0:51:56.680 --> 0:52:00.480 that that market is sowing serious signs of ress. And 0:52:00.640 --> 0:52:04.200 we saw this last year with the with concerns around 0:52:04.239 --> 0:52:07.280 ever Ground, which is this huge kind of property developer, 0:52:07.400 --> 0:52:10.480 and well it kind of branched off into other things 0:52:10.600 --> 0:52:12.960 as well, but there were there were lots of concerns 0:52:13.360 --> 0:52:15.520 last year that it was going to default on its debts, 0:52:15.560 --> 0:52:19.640 and it's still in a pretty precarious position. Um. And 0:52:20.120 --> 0:52:23.000 we've seen, you know, we've seen actual sort of you know, 0:52:23.200 --> 0:52:28.040 kickbacks from from Chinese, from Chinese citizens as well. A 0:52:28.120 --> 0:52:32.240 lot of property developers haven't been able to finish building 0:52:32.440 --> 0:52:35.279 these properties that a lot of investors have bought sort 0:52:35.280 --> 0:52:36.879 of you know, they buy them off plan, they brought 0:52:36.920 --> 0:52:40.759 them before they were before they were built, and a 0:52:40.840 --> 0:52:44.920 lot of people have stopped paying their mortgages in protest 0:52:45.400 --> 0:52:48.800 because they've gone, look, you haven't finished building this, this apartment, 0:52:48.880 --> 0:52:51.960 this house. The situation because they don't have the money 0:52:52.000 --> 0:52:54.640 coming in. Yeah. I think that there's a few developments 0:52:54.640 --> 0:52:57.480 around here that were Chinese under being sold as well. 0:52:57.760 --> 0:53:00.279 Really yeah, yeah, I mean it's one of them, was 0:53:00.320 --> 0:53:02.759 a big one just over there that they sold that 0:53:03.239 --> 0:53:06.960 quite a loss really, just to to sort of get 0:53:07.040 --> 0:53:10.440 some cash. I mean, construction, you know, the proper the 0:53:10.520 --> 0:53:13.719 property and construction is massive business and of course you 0:53:13.800 --> 0:53:17.480 know these things, these things reach across the world and 0:53:17.560 --> 0:53:20.760 obviously very very precarious as well. I mean, there's insane 0:53:20.840 --> 0:53:23.640 profits to be made, but you know, construction and property 0:53:23.680 --> 0:53:27.560 is very very vulnerable to you to economic to outside. 0:53:27.880 --> 0:53:30.840 So what is causing the Is it a stress in 0:53:30.960 --> 0:53:32.880 that the bubble is going to burst, or is it 0:53:33.000 --> 0:53:36.520 again supply chain issues and or is it it's a lot. Yeah, 0:53:36.600 --> 0:53:39.600 it's it's it's it's a sort of combination of factors really, 0:53:39.719 --> 0:53:42.520 but yeah, you know, I think that that certainly supply 0:53:42.640 --> 0:53:45.120 chain issues and COVID lockdowns have kind of hurt the 0:53:45.160 --> 0:53:48.759 property sector. They they've they've slowed down development. You know, 0:53:49.400 --> 0:53:51.440 lots of workers have been locked down, so they've been 0:53:51.520 --> 0:53:53.239 unable to finish a lot of these projects, and that, 0:53:53.400 --> 0:53:55.839 you know, that's part of the reason why you've seen 0:53:55.920 --> 0:53:59.080 these mortgage protests, you know, people not paying. Yeah, so 0:53:59.239 --> 0:54:01.520 like the the costs are still there. They've probably got 0:54:01.560 --> 0:54:03.880 some ongoing costs, but they haven't been developing, not finishing 0:54:03.960 --> 0:54:07.480 on time, and it's yeah, yeah, and we've also had 0:54:07.760 --> 0:54:10.960 um you know that they've been there've been concerns around 0:54:11.040 --> 0:54:13.520 bank deposits in parts of China as well. So there 0:54:13.600 --> 0:54:16.560 was this rolled out in tanks, Yeah, they have. It 0:54:16.680 --> 0:54:22.120 was obviously just a tank exercise, not anything. Just happened 0:54:22.160 --> 0:54:25.040 to be conducting an exercise in the area at time. Yeah, 0:54:25.080 --> 0:54:28.080 So there were these bank runs on sort of regional 0:54:28.200 --> 0:54:31.600 banks in China. People were worried that, you know, that 0:54:31.880 --> 0:54:35.080 their savings were at risk. Do they not have the 0:54:35.200 --> 0:54:39.160 thing that Yeah, I mean they could do they could do. 0:54:39.480 --> 0:54:42.319 It's but you know, all it takes is a bit 0:54:42.360 --> 0:54:46.520 of is a lack of confidence. Um. And you know 0:54:46.640 --> 0:54:49.719 that these protests, you know, you don't you don't really 0:54:49.760 --> 0:54:52.439 protest in public in China and expect to get away 0:54:52.480 --> 0:54:56.840 with it. Um. So, Yeah, the the Chinese economy is 0:54:56.960 --> 0:55:02.840 looking like every other economy is looking. Yeah. And actually 0:55:02.960 --> 0:55:05.520 I'm one of the things that I did do a 0:55:05.600 --> 0:55:07.759 video over on our main channel about these kind of 0:55:08.080 --> 0:55:10.680 Chinese bank runs and also Chinese GDP a few weeks 0:55:10.719 --> 0:55:12.160 ago as well. So if you want to kind of 0:55:12.200 --> 0:55:14.400 dig more into that, then I urge people to have 0:55:14.440 --> 0:55:17.240 a look at that. However, also on the topic of China, 0:55:17.360 --> 0:55:22.120 we've got Taiwan and they're being emboldened by the Ukraine 0:55:22.160 --> 0:55:26.759 situation and and there's a lot of speculations like circling. Yeah, 0:55:27.480 --> 0:55:32.880 Taiwan is kind of in the news at the moment um. Obviously, 0:55:33.040 --> 0:55:36.359 it's been a potential flashpoint for for a long long time, 0:55:36.560 --> 0:55:39.040 And yeah, there was a lot of concern that China 0:55:39.120 --> 0:55:42.000 could use you know, China could do a Russia basically 0:55:42.040 --> 0:55:45.759 and go, right, we're going in Um and Biden and 0:55:46.080 --> 0:55:50.640 President presidency. You know, I think they had they've exchanged 0:55:50.719 --> 0:55:53.560 words over Taiwan. There's a lot of kind of Yeah, 0:55:53.640 --> 0:55:55.880 so there's been there's a lot of kind of saber rattling, 0:55:55.920 --> 0:55:58.759 a lot of posturing going on over Taiwan. That situation 0:55:59.040 --> 0:56:04.080 that just what we need absolutely absolutely, like yeah, um, 0:56:04.320 --> 0:56:07.479 it's it's a it really is the blackest of black 0:56:07.520 --> 0:56:13.040 swans Taiwan. And actually it's kind of flashpoint as we record. 0:56:13.239 --> 0:56:17.719 Why would China if they just do they need that? Well, 0:56:17.920 --> 0:56:22.879 if they questioned, yeah, like do they do they need sanctions? 0:56:23.040 --> 0:56:27.560 And and and if they're already on a precarious situation 0:56:28.560 --> 0:56:33.520 or do they see this as we're more battle ready 0:56:33.960 --> 0:56:36.960 than the West, Well, I mean, yeah, it could be. 0:56:37.400 --> 0:56:40.279 On the one hand, it's a very it's such a 0:56:40.360 --> 0:56:42.560 difficult situation to call, isn't it, Because yeah, on the 0:56:42.600 --> 0:56:46.719 one hand, you could go China, Yeah, China suffering trying 0:56:46.760 --> 0:56:49.600 to suffering economically at the moment, really the last thing 0:56:49.680 --> 0:56:52.319 it needs is to get dragged into a costly war 0:56:52.520 --> 0:56:55.040 because I mean, you know, Taiwan is an island. It's 0:56:55.160 --> 0:56:57.719 not it's not the easiest thing to invade, even if 0:56:57.760 --> 0:57:00.239 you have got the largest army in the world. Um, 0:57:00.680 --> 0:57:03.439 so it would you know, it would be expensive even 0:57:03.560 --> 0:57:06.279 just to do it. But I mean, you know, but 0:57:06.920 --> 0:57:09.600 to say nothing of the potential consequences from the rest 0:57:09.640 --> 0:57:11.680 of the world. So there's that on the one hand, 0:57:11.719 --> 0:57:13.960 But there's also the sense, I mean, China has covered 0:57:14.080 --> 0:57:18.680 Taiwan for decades and it could be thinking, look, if 0:57:18.840 --> 0:57:21.800 if there's a time to do it, it's now. You know, 0:57:21.880 --> 0:57:24.560 the US is the US is attracted. And of course 0:57:24.720 --> 0:57:26.720 we were saying this. I think lots of people are 0:57:26.720 --> 0:57:30.600 saying this. In Februaries, just before Russia rolled into Ukraine, 0:57:30.680 --> 0:57:33.040 you know, the question was like, why would Russia do this? 0:57:33.200 --> 0:57:36.520 Putin must know that there will be some sort of response, 0:57:36.640 --> 0:57:38.960 you know, almost you know, almost certainly in the form 0:57:39.000 --> 0:57:44.120 of sanctions. Um, possibly a military response as well, which 0:57:44.760 --> 0:57:48.760 obviously didn't materialize. But yeah, I mean I remember when 0:57:48.840 --> 0:57:51.920 I remember waking up on four February or something when 0:57:52.040 --> 0:57:54.120 Russia went in, you just thought, and I think I 0:57:54.200 --> 0:57:56.040 think I was saying to you in a podcast episode. 0:57:56.080 --> 0:58:00.200 It's like, this really is the last thing the world need, 0:58:01.280 --> 0:58:03.600 and hey, they just went and they went ahead and 0:58:03.680 --> 0:58:07.600 did it anywhere. You know, it's very much it's a 0:58:07.720 --> 0:58:10.760 very precarious situation. And I mean at the moment as 0:58:10.800 --> 0:58:14.040 we record this, Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the U S. 0:58:14.080 --> 0:58:16.920 House of Representatives, is due to make a visit to Taiwan, 0:58:17.240 --> 0:58:20.439 to Taipei, the capital today, and this is being seen 0:58:20.640 --> 0:58:23.760 as very very provocative by the Chinese. You know, the 0:58:23.880 --> 0:58:28.520 Chinese are not happy. Um. And you know, it is 0:58:28.600 --> 0:58:31.560 a potential it is a big potential flash point, and 0:58:31.640 --> 0:58:35.720 the effects of that would be huge. You know, even 0:58:35.800 --> 0:58:39.120 if even if it didn't come to a military confrontation, 0:58:39.360 --> 0:58:42.240 which would obviously be what China would gamble on rather 0:58:42.320 --> 0:58:45.880 like Putin did, it would still be really bad news 0:58:46.080 --> 0:58:50.760 for the global economy, more sanctions, more disruption. Um. Yeah. 0:58:50.880 --> 0:58:56.720 And it's it's it's interesting because cha Taiwan produces more 0:58:56.720 --> 0:59:00.920 than six, yeah, of all the semi conductor chips in 0:59:01.000 --> 0:59:04.600 the world. So an invasion of Taiwan by China would 0:59:04.600 --> 0:59:08.840 be terrible news for Apple, for Apple, for the global 0:59:08.920 --> 0:59:13.000 electronics industry and um, that would be you know, you 0:59:13.040 --> 0:59:15.760 would really feel that. So that would be that would 0:59:15.760 --> 0:59:18.760 be a really that would really tank you know that 0:59:18.840 --> 0:59:22.120 the wider economy. And it's interesting because just last week 0:59:22.280 --> 0:59:25.800 the US that they passed a two d and eight 0:59:26.120 --> 0:59:31.880 billion dollar bill to boost the US is native semiconductor industry, 0:59:32.680 --> 0:59:35.600 which says to me, they see something on the horizon. 0:59:35.840 --> 0:59:37.960 Well I think, yeah, I just want to protect. Yeah, 0:59:37.960 --> 0:59:43.120 they're mitigating against that, against that possibility. So so they've 0:59:43.120 --> 0:59:46.760 got their own fuel, their own semiconductors, they're fine. Well, yeah, 0:59:46.760 --> 0:59:49.400 I mean the US is the US is we talk 0:59:49.440 --> 0:59:52.160 about one of the least susceptible countries on the planet. 0:59:52.280 --> 0:59:55.840 It's geographically and economics. It's a very good point to make, actually, 0:59:55.920 --> 0:59:58.320 because as I say, we've we've referenced the U s 0:59:58.400 --> 1:00:00.200 economy a lot, and I talked about it all the 1:00:00.280 --> 1:00:02.960 time on the Channel because it is important. But you're 1:00:02.960 --> 1:00:08.080 absolutely right. The US is much more insulated from um, 1:00:08.400 --> 1:00:11.640 you know, from from these global forces than other countries are. 1:00:11.800 --> 1:00:14.880 And Europe is good, I mean just geographically, this war 1:00:15.080 --> 1:00:17.120 is happening, you know, this war in Ukraine is happening 1:00:17.200 --> 1:00:22.200 on Europe's door step. So yeah, I mean, if things 1:00:22.280 --> 1:00:25.600 seem bad for the future of the US economy. Then 1:00:25.840 --> 1:00:28.040 spare a thought for other economies as well, and of 1:00:28.120 --> 1:00:30.520 course the US, and we've talked about Europe and we've 1:00:30.560 --> 1:00:33.720 talked about China. I mean, these are these are advanced economies. 1:00:34.200 --> 1:00:37.520 So the effects on less advanced economy Shri Lanka's, for instance, 1:00:38.480 --> 1:00:42.080 can be catastrophic. And I think yeah, I mean we 1:00:42.200 --> 1:00:44.160 taught Yeah, we talked about higher Oh no, we're going 1:00:44.200 --> 1:00:46.240 to have to heat our homes and which is important. 1:00:46.240 --> 1:00:48.280 And people do lose their lives, you know, because you know, 1:00:48.320 --> 1:00:51.800 they can't afford to the choice of eating or or 1:00:51.880 --> 1:00:54.479 heating or eating. Yeah, but then you know, we're also 1:00:54.520 --> 1:00:56.440 talking about, oh well, people might not be able to 1:00:56.480 --> 1:00:59.600 afford a new iPhone like that in in parts of 1:00:59.680 --> 1:01:04.120 Africa and Asia and South America. You know, people people 1:01:04.160 --> 1:01:06.160 could start I mean that is you know, that is 1:01:06.360 --> 1:01:09.320 a million times. There's horrible stories of people selling their 1:01:09.360 --> 1:01:12.520 children just to jeez. I mean yeah, yeah, And I 1:01:12.640 --> 1:01:14.720 think it's it's really important to point that out. You know, 1:01:14.800 --> 1:01:16.720 we're we're looking at it from a very sort of 1:01:16.760 --> 1:01:21.200 coddle developed perspective that the consequences of everything that we've 1:01:21.200 --> 1:01:24.600 talked about could be so much worse, so much more 1:01:24.680 --> 1:01:28.600 nightmarish for people in less advanced economies. So yeah, it's 1:01:28.680 --> 1:01:30.960 it's important too. It's important to point that out. You know, 1:01:31.360 --> 1:01:34.520 we we feel effects and there's are nothing compared to 1:01:34.560 --> 1:01:37.360 what other people are going to have to endure. So yeah, 1:01:37.520 --> 1:01:43.920 so this is another fun podcast or or joy and 1:01:44.000 --> 1:01:46.040 I just want to, yeah, before we talk about what 1:01:46.160 --> 1:01:48.440 could be next for crypto very quickly before we go. 1:01:48.600 --> 1:01:51.280 I think this is something I've been thinking about as well, 1:01:51.320 --> 1:01:53.600 you know, over the last sorry, before we go in there. 1:01:53.720 --> 1:01:59.600 So with that technological so the semi conductive thing that 1:01:59.840 --> 1:02:03.439 is obviously a massive deal for crypto as well. Yeah, 1:02:04.080 --> 1:02:08.360 because obviously crypto has run on computers. Yeah, there is 1:02:08.560 --> 1:02:11.280 there is that. It's also I think it probably the 1:02:11.360 --> 1:02:15.920 more immediate effect would be the fact that the tech industry, 1:02:16.000 --> 1:02:19.040 the wider tech industry and people often see bitcoin as 1:02:19.080 --> 1:02:21.960 a tech stock almost Yeah. As I said earlier, Bitcoin 1:02:22.040 --> 1:02:24.400 and and krypto in general is very much tied to 1:02:24.440 --> 1:02:27.000 tech stocks as well. As tech stocks go up, crypto 1:02:27.120 --> 1:02:29.800 goes up, and and the opposite and vice versa as well. 1:02:29.960 --> 1:02:35.600 So yeah, I think the effects of other massive drop 1:02:35.720 --> 1:02:38.160 in semiconductor supply, which we did see actually, you know, 1:02:38.240 --> 1:02:40.440 we did have that over the pandemic, and actually, you know, 1:02:40.760 --> 1:02:44.320 Crypto held up. Crypto obviously flourished in the pandemic and stuff. 1:02:44.360 --> 1:02:47.240 But I think, yeah, it's certainly that that would be 1:02:47.440 --> 1:02:50.640 that would be felt across across all sectors. Crypto wouldn't 1:02:50.640 --> 1:02:53.480 be immune from, you know, from the from the fallout 1:02:53.520 --> 1:02:56.560 of that. Now it's I think it's really tempting as 1:02:56.600 --> 1:02:59.680 well to think. I certainly thought over the last couple 1:02:59.720 --> 1:03:02.040 of year years really it's like you always kind of 1:03:02.080 --> 1:03:04.320 look ahead. It's like, well, hopefully in a few years time, 1:03:04.360 --> 1:03:06.720 things will be better. You know, COVID won't be a 1:03:06.800 --> 1:03:09.080 problem anymore. We'll have got inflation under control, you know, 1:03:09.160 --> 1:03:12.680 supply chains will be back up and running, and you know, 1:03:12.760 --> 1:03:14.520 all these problems that we're dealing with at the moment 1:03:14.600 --> 1:03:17.680 will hopefully be resolved or you know, certainly a lot 1:03:17.800 --> 1:03:20.720 less like there's light at the end of the tunnel exactly. 1:03:20.960 --> 1:03:23.720 But but well, you know, it's this sort of thing 1:03:23.760 --> 1:03:25.760 we always look to this future, you know, these kind 1:03:25.800 --> 1:03:28.640 of sunlit uplands, as they say, but let's face it, 1:03:28.920 --> 1:03:31.400 more problems are going to come along. And I think 1:03:31.480 --> 1:03:33.840 Taiwan is a potential. You know, I'm not saying that 1:03:33.920 --> 1:03:37.080 Taiwan is necessarily going to be the next global flash 1:03:37.120 --> 1:03:40.280 pipe and just saying there's you know, it's a it's 1:03:40.280 --> 1:03:42.720 a it's a worry. Yeah, it's a red flag, as 1:03:42.760 --> 1:03:44.600 they say, it's a it's a big old red flag. 1:03:44.720 --> 1:03:49.920 Yeah with with with So yeah, look, you know that 1:03:50.080 --> 1:03:52.680 that the the outlook for the outlook for the wider 1:03:52.720 --> 1:03:57.360 global economy is certainly is not great for certainly the 1:03:57.440 --> 1:03:59.880 next next few months and probably years. And that's some 1:04:00.040 --> 1:04:04.200 thing that people should should take into account when making well, 1:04:04.240 --> 1:04:06.080 i mean any sort of decisions really. But you know, 1:04:06.200 --> 1:04:08.720 especially if you're if you're into crypto and you're thinking 1:04:08.800 --> 1:04:11.640 of investing, you know, this is the the in fact, 1:04:11.720 --> 1:04:13.720 what you can afford to lose, absolutely, but you know 1:04:13.840 --> 1:04:15.920 you need to pay you need to pay attention to 1:04:16.000 --> 1:04:18.320 the bigger picture. Now, just to touch on what could 1:04:18.360 --> 1:04:21.600 be next for crypto before we sign off. Now, there 1:04:21.720 --> 1:04:24.240 is good news because even though we're in a bear market, 1:04:25.320 --> 1:04:29.760 development is still going ahead, you know, good for happening. Yeah, 1:04:29.920 --> 1:04:33.560 good projects are still you know people some some crypto 1:04:33.600 --> 1:04:36.240 companies are still hiring, you know, they're still building. And 1:04:36.480 --> 1:04:40.480 regardless of the wider economic situation, those good projects will 1:04:40.520 --> 1:04:43.160 continue to develop, and this, you know, this is one 1:04:43.200 --> 1:04:45.160 of the this is one of the upsides to a 1:04:45.240 --> 1:04:47.240 bear market if you like, you know, the good projects 1:04:47.360 --> 1:04:50.880 keep going and there are you know, opportunities out there 1:04:50.960 --> 1:04:54.000 to to invest in these things cheaper than you might 1:04:54.120 --> 1:04:57.640 have done with the height of the bullmarket. Now, I 1:04:57.800 --> 1:05:01.160 think in prices are unlikely to recover to levels that 1:05:01.240 --> 1:05:03.080 we saw in November last year, you know, when we 1:05:03.120 --> 1:05:05.720 had those all time hands. Um. So the bear market 1:05:05.800 --> 1:05:07.480 is going to continue, and as I say, I think 1:05:07.600 --> 1:05:11.000 that could be until at the least, So bear that 1:05:11.120 --> 1:05:14.360 in mind. There's also this headache ahead, like the sec 1:05:14.880 --> 1:05:16.640 that I talked about, you know, that seems to be 1:05:16.720 --> 1:05:19.840 coming for crypto with sort of renewed vigor. At the 1:05:19.920 --> 1:05:24.200 moment um. It's trying to you know, essentially classify most 1:05:24.280 --> 1:05:28.680 cryptocurrencies as securities if it can. Very few cryptos are 1:05:28.760 --> 1:05:33.480 exempt in the sec s eyes Bitcoin, because it's a bitcoin, 1:05:33.520 --> 1:05:36.720 will be okay in that in that Respectum Ethereum probably 1:05:36.800 --> 1:05:40.400 as well. Um not least because an SEC official in 1:05:40.440 --> 1:05:43.320 the past has said that Ethereum was sufficiently decentralized and 1:05:43.400 --> 1:05:46.520 that was several years ago. So I would imagine that 1:05:46.600 --> 1:05:49.840 BTC and would be safe from the SEC in that respect, 1:05:50.000 --> 1:05:54.560 but you know, it's there are the wider crypto industry 1:05:54.640 --> 1:05:57.240 is very much threatened by the SEC. Would that have 1:05:57.320 --> 1:06:02.160 a knock on effected the tokens built off, Yeah, quite possibly, 1:06:02.320 --> 1:06:04.160 quite possible because they you know, some of those could 1:06:04.160 --> 1:06:09.280 be classified as securities. Um So, yeah, there's certainly there's 1:06:09.320 --> 1:06:13.160 certainly worrier, you know, worry around because the SEC as well, 1:06:13.240 --> 1:06:16.000 seems to be determined to legislate by by force rather 1:06:16.120 --> 1:06:19.400 than actually go and clarify things and make things, you know, 1:06:19.560 --> 1:06:22.520 make it so as these crypto companies can get in line. 1:06:22.960 --> 1:06:25.920 It just seems to be going after you know, this company, 1:06:26.000 --> 1:06:28.800 that company labeled this a security, that not a security. 1:06:29.200 --> 1:06:33.000 There's so little like labels. We don't like labels. Yeah, yeah, 1:06:33.080 --> 1:06:35.680 it's like this is a security, this is not as security. 1:06:36.000 --> 1:06:38.920 This I don't know what this is. Um So, it's 1:06:39.000 --> 1:06:41.880 it's tough because you know, these crypto these companies they 1:06:41.920 --> 1:06:43.440 want to get into line. You know, they don't they 1:06:43.480 --> 1:06:45.560 don't want to be on the wrong side of the 1:06:45.640 --> 1:06:49.120 law necessarily, but the SEC and others make it so difficult. 1:06:49.120 --> 1:06:52.760 There's so little clarity. So on that note, we are 1:06:52.840 --> 1:06:56.520 going to see more regulation of the crypto industry across 1:06:56.560 --> 1:06:58.840 the world. You know, again it's very much focused on 1:06:58.920 --> 1:07:02.120 the u S, but the the EU is taking steps 1:07:02.120 --> 1:07:07.120 towards legislator regulating crypto. We're seeing stuff here in the 1:07:07.280 --> 1:07:09.400 UK as well, you know, all across the world. India 1:07:10.200 --> 1:07:14.120 is not proving very pro crypto at the moment, so 1:07:14.600 --> 1:07:17.280 we are going to see more crypto regulation. Now, this 1:07:17.960 --> 1:07:21.360 could be a good thing if it's done right, if 1:07:21.400 --> 1:07:25.640 it's done with a recognition that you know, of of 1:07:26.080 --> 1:07:29.000 what a powerful technology crypto and blockchain offer. You know, 1:07:29.080 --> 1:07:31.760 the opportunities, If it allows crypto to flourish within a 1:07:31.840 --> 1:07:36.919 regulatory framework, that's good, protecting investors, protecting investors. Yeah, if 1:07:37.240 --> 1:07:40.520 if it could tails innovation exactly, it will be it 1:07:40.560 --> 1:07:41.960 will be bad, and that will be something that the 1:07:41.960 --> 1:07:44.560 crypto market will have to, you know, we'll have to 1:07:44.640 --> 1:07:46.880 deal with. So that's a potential. You know, there are 1:07:46.920 --> 1:07:54.480 potential benefits and also drawbacks to this potential regulation. So really, anyone, 1:07:54.880 --> 1:07:57.320 the only thing I think we can almost certainly be 1:07:57.400 --> 1:08:00.360 sure of for crypto in the short to media term 1:08:00.640 --> 1:08:05.200 is more volatility so although we will see I think 1:08:05.560 --> 1:08:08.040 we will see more rallies ahead. You know, it's not 1:08:08.240 --> 1:08:11.040 organ it's not going to be strictly down from here, 1:08:11.680 --> 1:08:13.400 but we're I think we're going to see a lot 1:08:13.440 --> 1:08:15.600 of these kind of rallies, pumps on good news and 1:08:15.600 --> 1:08:18.280 all that sort of stuff. But then you know those 1:08:18.320 --> 1:08:19.760 are going to tail off as well. And I think 1:08:19.800 --> 1:08:23.520 actually if we look at if we look at prices today, 1:08:24.320 --> 1:08:28.280 they are yeah, they're down. You know, there's there's a 1:08:28.479 --> 1:08:32.360 there's a correction. There's a correction going on. So people 1:08:32.439 --> 1:08:35.360 should be really really wary. And I've said this, you know, 1:08:35.400 --> 1:08:36.920 I say this to lend Blue in the face. But 1:08:37.040 --> 1:08:39.640 you know, just because the markets are going up, just 1:08:39.760 --> 1:08:43.439 because they're pumping, it doesn't mean that everything is good 1:08:43.479 --> 1:08:46.360 and rosy. Again, these are very very difficult conditions to 1:08:46.439 --> 1:08:49.080 try and trade in. So you really need to have 1:08:49.360 --> 1:08:52.040 a long term focus and you have to be prepared 1:08:52.080 --> 1:08:54.320 that if you are going to invest at this sort 1:08:54.360 --> 1:08:57.439 of time, you have to be prepared for the value 1:08:57.439 --> 1:09:00.800 of that investment to go down, certainly in the short term. Um, 1:09:01.600 --> 1:09:03.400 you know, you have to invest with with an eye 1:09:03.479 --> 1:09:09.000 on the longer term. If basically Guy's advice is it's 1:09:09.040 --> 1:09:13.320 not financial advice exactly. Um, okay, So that's just an 1:09:13.360 --> 1:09:16.599 overview of basically kind of what's going on. A few 1:09:16.640 --> 1:09:19.920 things to bear in mind. If you're well, if you're 1:09:20.120 --> 1:09:22.719 if you're interested in crypto, if you're a crypto investor 1:09:22.960 --> 1:09:25.960 or living in Taiwan, or if you live in Taiwan. Yeah, yeah, 1:09:26.200 --> 1:09:29.880 I was made in Taiwan. Really, That's what my dad 1:09:29.960 --> 1:09:34.200 told me. That's they were on around the world trip, 1:09:34.320 --> 1:09:41.479 honeymoon and and the Twinkle well nine months pre my birthday. 1:09:41.680 --> 1:09:47.080 They were they were they yeah, okay in Taiwan, in Taiwan. 1:09:47.479 --> 1:09:51.960 Let's leave it there. Thanks for listening everyone, See see 1:09:52.000 --> 1:09:54.479 you next time. Thank you so much for listening to 1:09:54.720 --> 1:09:57.000 the coin Bureau podcast. If you'd like to learn more 1:09:57.040 --> 1:10:00.959 about cryptocurrency, you can visit our YouTube channel at YouTube 1:10:01.000 --> 1:10:03.760 dot com forward slash coin Bureau. You can also go 1:10:03.880 --> 1:10:06.639 to coin bureau dot com for loads more information about 1:10:06.680 --> 1:10:09.559 all things crypto. You can follow me on Twitter at 1:10:09.640 --> 1:10:12.000 coin Brea or one word, and I'm also active on 1:10:12.120 --> 1:10:15.439 TikTok and Instagram as well. First of all, it's not 1:10:15.760 --> 1:10:19.760 thank you for listening, You're welcome for great content. Yeah, 1:10:20.240 --> 1:10:23.639 like this is free, and they're learning about a fairly 1:10:23.760 --> 1:10:27.120 great topic in a non boring way. 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