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Speaker 1: The Coin Bureau Podcast is a production of My Heart Radio.

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Speaker 1: The only thing I think we can almost certainly be

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Speaker 1: sure of for crypto in the short to medium term

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Speaker 1: is more volatility. So although we will see I think

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Speaker 1: we will see more rallies ahead. You know, it's not

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Speaker 1: organ it's not going to be strictly down from here.

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Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to the Coin Bureau Podcast. This is my

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Speaker 1: very good friend Mike and my name is Guy, and

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Speaker 1: today we're going to take a look. Mike, ats just

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Speaker 1: the current state of the crypto, Marky, what a go

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Speaker 1: on in? What are gue in? Yeah, exactly. It's been

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Speaker 1: a it's been a pretty interesting last few weeks. There's

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Speaker 1: been a lot going on. Crypto prices have been well,

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Speaker 1: we've they've been going up. They've taken a bit of

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Speaker 1: a steadily slowly but steadily. Yeah, we've seen bitcoin reached

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Speaker 1: some levels that it had sort of fallen quite a

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Speaker 1: long way past. So it's sort of at breach k

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Speaker 1: the other day, which in the grand scheme of things

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Speaker 1: is not much for bitcoin, but certainly under current conditions,

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Speaker 1: that was you know, that was a rally that was

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Speaker 1: that when there was an interest rate high core, was it? Yeah, Yeah, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so this this rally was driven by by a number

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Speaker 1: of factors really, and the weird thing is that there

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Speaker 1: in some cases they are factors that sort of you

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Speaker 1: could reasonably expect them to actually tank the market, and

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Speaker 1: instead it pumped it, which is quite strange. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's one of the reasons why I thought this

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Speaker 1: would be an interesting episode to do, because there's just

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Speaker 1: there's there's a lot going on at the moment, as

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Speaker 1: I said, but it's so difficult to interpret this data

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Speaker 1: that we have coming through to interpret everything that's going on,

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Speaker 1: and there's no real historical sort of precedent yeah, further

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Speaker 1: than you know, ten years. Yeah, and yeah, obviously all

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Speaker 1: of this is completely unique for crypto, but it's also

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Speaker 1: very unprecedented circumstances as well for the sort of wider economy,

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Speaker 1: and we're going to dig into exactly why that is

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Speaker 1: in just a moment or so. But I thought it

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Speaker 1: might be useful for people listening, and this is this

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Speaker 1: is you know, kind of general economic terms as well.

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Speaker 1: I guess it's not entirely relevant just to crypto, but

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Speaker 1: I think for anyone listening who's into cryptone, especially those

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Speaker 1: people who are new to crypto and trying to make

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Speaker 1: sense of the space. I think this could be a

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Speaker 1: useful episode just to explore some of the things that

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Speaker 1: are going on in the wider economy and try and

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Speaker 1: try and make some sense of them, try and try

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Speaker 1: and understand why crypto prices have been going up recently,

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Speaker 1: what the sort of longer term outlook could be. And

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Speaker 1: of course we're not trying to predict the future here,

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Speaker 1: because predicting the future is impossible, but I think it

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Speaker 1: would be useful, useful information for people to to have

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Speaker 1: and to to consider when making possible investment decisions. And

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Speaker 1: of course, none of what follows is financial advice. I

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Speaker 1: was going to say, what we're telling you could be

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Speaker 1: really useful for you to make some investment decisions, but

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Speaker 1: remember it's not financial, and no, okay exactly. So I

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Speaker 1: think the first thing to I think, the first thing

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Speaker 1: to iterate before we go any further, is we are

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Speaker 1: still very much in a bear market. People tend to

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Speaker 1: get thank you, that's the bare market sound. People tend

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Speaker 1: to get very excited when prices, when prices in crypto

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Speaker 1: take up, and you know, constantly getting questions, it's like

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Speaker 1: we done, is this bare market. Yeah, are we there

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Speaker 1: is this bare market over can we Can we all

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Speaker 1: just go and go back to when prices were going

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Speaker 1: up and everything was rosy And the answer is no.

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Speaker 1: So we are still very much in a bear market.

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Speaker 1: And I expect us to remain in this bear market

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Speaker 1: till at very least at the end of this year,

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Speaker 1: until at very least this afternoon, um and quite possibly

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Speaker 1: on into as well. And not ye, yeah, I expect

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Speaker 1: them to. I I do expect these conditions to sort

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Speaker 1: of prevail throughout next year as well. So you know,

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Speaker 1: I could be wrong. It's as I say, it's it's

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Speaker 1: impossible to predict the future, but you are oracle. But

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Speaker 1: I am in the absence of anything better. Yeah, So okay,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about let's talk about two of the things

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Speaker 1: that are really kind of driving markets at the moment,

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Speaker 1: and this is this goes for kryptone kind of every

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Speaker 1: other market as well, really and this is the first

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Speaker 1: one is FED policy, the policy of the Federal Reserve

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Speaker 1: over in the good old US of A. And I'm

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Speaker 1: going to reference a lot of what is happening in

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Speaker 1: the US economy during this episode, not exclusively what's happening

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Speaker 1: in the States, because there's lots of other relevant stuff

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Speaker 1: happening in other economies as well, but I use kind

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Speaker 1: of US day because a, you know, an enormous and

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Speaker 1: enormous proportion of investors, especially crypto investors, are obviously based

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Speaker 1: in the United States. The US is the biggest global economy,

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Speaker 1: and kind of what happens in the United States tends

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Speaker 1: to have, you know, repercussions across the world. So it's

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Speaker 1: all very you know, what happens in the U. S

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Speaker 1: economy is relevant to sort of almost every other economy.

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Speaker 1: So that's why I'm using a lot of a lot

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Speaker 1: of U S data, but not exclusively. Okay, So the

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Speaker 1: policy of the Federal Reserve recently, Now, the Federal Reserve,

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Speaker 1: as you may know, has a dual mandate. It has

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Speaker 1: basically two jobs. It's it's first job is to ensure

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Speaker 1: high employment, and its second job is to ensure sort

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Speaker 1: of low interesting well, basically to keep inflation under control.

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Speaker 1: And the way that it keeps in the best tool

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Speaker 1: it has to keep inflation under control is the raising

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Speaker 1: and lowering of interest rates. Yeah, so last week, on

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Speaker 1: the twenty seven, the FED, the FED Board met again

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Speaker 1: and approved another zero points rise in interest rates seventy

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Speaker 1: five basis points, which was which is a fairly big

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Speaker 1: hike in the grand scheme of things, But crucially, it

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Speaker 1: was very much what investors were expecting. We were all

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Speaker 1: sort of watching the markets, you know, in the weeks

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Speaker 1: leading up, and the broad consensus was that the Fed

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Speaker 1: would only raise by seventy five basis points. Some people

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Speaker 1: were saying they could go a full they could go

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Speaker 1: a full one percent, a full one basis points, but

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Speaker 1: this would have been a very you know, this would

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Speaker 1: have been a largely unexpected move, and that probably would

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Speaker 1: have tanked the markets, certainly in the short term. However,

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Speaker 1: it was just that it was just that seventy five

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Speaker 1: basis point raise that was in line with expectations, and

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Speaker 1: the markets kind of reacted very favorably to that. So

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Speaker 1: that was one reason why we saw that that pumping

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Speaker 1: prices last week, Because, as I've said many times before,

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Speaker 1: markets love certainty more than anything else. Markets don't like

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Speaker 1: to be surprised. Like old women. Yeah yeah, markets are

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Speaker 1: essentially like old women are essentially like your grandmother. Um. Now,

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Speaker 1: inflation is that the reason that the Fed is continuing

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Speaker 1: to raise interest rates is because Inflation is still a

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Speaker 1: big issue in the United States, and it's I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's a bigger issue and a lot of other economies

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Speaker 1: as well. It is being felt everywhere, and you don't

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Speaker 1: need to you don't need to be a sort of

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Speaker 1: seasoned market watcher to know that people are talking about

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Speaker 1: inflation a lot. Now, what the FED is trying to

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Speaker 1: do is negotiate what it calls a soft landing. It's

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Speaker 1: trying to tame inflation by raising interest rates, but at

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Speaker 1: the same time, it doesn't want to tank the economy.

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Speaker 1: It ideally doesn't want to push the US economy into

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Speaker 1: recession because obviously recessions are bad unless you changed the

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Speaker 1: definition of unless exactly, which we're gonna which we're going

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Speaker 1: to touch on in just a moment. Yeah, it's so

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Speaker 1: because obviously, when interest rates go up, the cost of

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Speaker 1: borrowing increases, and this has felt throughout the whole economy.

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Speaker 1: And the reason why markets tend to tend to react

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Speaker 1: badly to hikes and interest rates is because basically everyone

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Speaker 1: is in debt. So the first thing you do when

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Speaker 1: you're you know, when the interest payments on your debt

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Speaker 1: go up, you quite often, you know, investors quite often

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Speaker 1: sell off assets in order to you know, in order

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Speaker 1: to get some cash on hand to pay down those debts,

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Speaker 1: because you know, they don't want they don't want their

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Speaker 1: debts to get out of control. And this, unfortunately, is

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Speaker 1: the kind of debt based economy that we that we

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Speaker 1: have to you know, that we live with today. That

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Speaker 1: is just that is just the way it goes. Now,

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Speaker 1: other central banks across the world are also responding to

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Speaker 1: inflation by raising interest rates, but actually, you know, certainly

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Speaker 1: here in the UK and in Europe as well, not

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Speaker 1: really not really fast enough. I don't think. I mean

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Speaker 1: the European Central Bank it raised rates recently. Um it

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Speaker 1: made a fifty basis point raise which brought the inflation rate,

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Speaker 1: the interest rate in the Eurozone to zero. Actually had

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Speaker 1: negative interest rates up until that point. Now, the reason

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Speaker 1: I think the e c B is kind of holding

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Speaker 1: back on raising rates is because basically a lot of

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Speaker 1: European countries are very badly in debt, especially in Southern Europe, Spain, Italy, Greece,

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Speaker 1: and there's a there's a real fear that if if yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: the you know, it could have it could have massive repercussions.

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Speaker 1: And this you know, this is the way that the EU.

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Speaker 1: This is one of the weaknesses I guess of the

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Speaker 1: EU and that you know, there is this disparity between

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Speaker 1: various EU economies. So um yeah. So basically interest rate

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Speaker 1: although interest rates are going up, the recent rises have

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Speaker 1: been in line with expectations recently. Um And there's also

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Speaker 1: quite a lot of speculation that concerns around housing markets

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Speaker 1: could mean that central start to ease off these rate

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Speaker 1: rises because you know, if the cost of borrowing increases

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Speaker 1: and you can't pay your mortgage. Yeah, and it also

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Speaker 1: means that fewer people take out mortgages because housing becomes unaffordable.

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Speaker 1: No one can afford to take out a mortgage and

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Speaker 1: make those those higher repayments. So there's a genuine concern,

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Speaker 1: especially in places like the US, the Eurozone and especially

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Speaker 1: actually China as well, that if interest rates go up

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Speaker 1: too high, then the housing markets there could tank, and

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Speaker 1: that is you know, that is something that governments really

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Speaker 1: want to avoid. So there is this kind of speculation

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Speaker 1: that these rate rises that we're seeing, they could they

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Speaker 1: could slow down in the not too distant future because

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Speaker 1: of concerns around housing markets and and other issues as well,

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Speaker 1: which will explore in a little bit. So that's FED policy. Really,

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Speaker 1: it's been kind of in line with expectations recently, and

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Speaker 1: that's why we've seen a bit of a bit of

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Speaker 1: a pump in the market in general, a bit of

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Speaker 1: kind of better sentiment, if you like. Now we've touched

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Speaker 1: on the R word as well, recession fears. As I

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Speaker 1: was saying last week, on the seven, the Federal the

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve announced its interest rate rights. The following day,

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Speaker 1: on the twenty eight, the US GDP figures for the

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Speaker 1: second quarter of this year came out. It was it

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Speaker 1: was two days of hot stat action. It was hot,

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Speaker 1: sexy st it was. It was quite something, Yeah, it was.

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Speaker 1: It was almost it was almost too exciting, it really was. Now,

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Speaker 1: these GDP figures came out and they showed that in

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Speaker 1: the US there had been a second consecutive quarter of

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Speaker 1: negative economic growth, which traditionally it's called the recession. Yeah, technically, technically,

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Speaker 1: technically that is a recession. The kind of received definitely,

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Speaker 1: the understood definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters

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Speaker 1: of negative economic apparently. No, yeah, now this is this

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Speaker 1: is everyone's talking about this at the moment, because this

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Speaker 1: is a this is a really big deal. Now I

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Speaker 1: should point I should start by pointing out that the

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Speaker 1: official a recession is officially decided in the US by

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Speaker 1: a body of eight people. So you know, this is

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Speaker 1: this is just these these GDP figures just point to

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Speaker 1: a technical recession. An official recession has to be announced.

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Speaker 1: And these people sit there part of the National Bureau

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Speaker 1: of Economic Research. They're eight economists, and they sit on

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Speaker 1: something called the Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is like

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Speaker 1: a tinder, Yeah, a tinder for tinder for geeks. It's yeah,

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Speaker 1: I must say, it's yeah, this is a very sort

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Speaker 1: of you know, not an awful lot is known about this,

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Speaker 1: you know, about this board like clander Stein, I think, so, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's you know, the chant and then ding, yeah, three

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Speaker 1: plumes of smoke go up. It's the recession. Um. So

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Speaker 1: these guys are you know, it's their job to me

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Speaker 1: and and they decide and they obviously look at, you know,

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Speaker 1: a lot of data and and then at some point

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Speaker 1: declare that this is a recession or not. And they

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Speaker 1: haven't yet done that, and um, President, because they're just busy. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: they're all busy. They're all I should actually, I should

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Speaker 1: actually point out I say they're all on holiday. I

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Speaker 1: mean actually the Federal Reserve governors have now all gone

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Speaker 1: off on holiday until September. And this is actually yeah,

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Speaker 1: basically two months, um, not two months and know a

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Speaker 1: whole month because well I think till mid September anyhow,

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Speaker 1: six weeks. Yeah, they get they get a decent solid holiday. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So the Federal the Federal reservant that they've now gone

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Speaker 1: off on holiday, and that means no more rate arizes

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Speaker 1: until September. And this is another reason why the markets

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Speaker 1: will be exactly which the markets are absolutely delighted about.

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Speaker 1: So that was another reason why you know, we saw

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Speaker 1: a bit of them just put that out of office. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: there they are. Thank you for your inquiry as that

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Speaker 1: whether we are in a recession. I'm currently out of

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Speaker 1: office on the beach until September. Yeah. Talk about burying

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Speaker 1: your head in this absolutely and quite literally burying their

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Speaker 1: head in the sand. Yeah. So going back to the recession. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so that the Biden administration at present, Biden actually came

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Speaker 1: out and said this doesn't sound like a recession on

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Speaker 1: the release of those GDP figures, and yeah, that's okay.

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Speaker 1: Now the Biden administration, there's there's this is becoming a

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Speaker 1: very political issue because the Biden administration obviously has a

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Speaker 1: lot of skin in the game here because we've got

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Speaker 1: the midterm elections coming up in the US in November

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Speaker 1: and the current administration which is a forecast to take

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Speaker 1: a beating one way or another. But obviously the last

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Speaker 1: thing that kind of wants is to be official. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I think there's certainly there's certainly a lot of

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Speaker 1: desire within the administration to sort of hold off on

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Speaker 1: this recession definition for as long as humanly possible, ideally

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Speaker 1: until after the mid terms, um so November. Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: a big you know, we've we've got this big sort

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Speaker 1: of political milestone coming up in the US, so obviously

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Speaker 1: that is informing whether or not we get this decision.

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Speaker 1: It has become a political process. And I should also

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Speaker 1: point out that this Business Cycle Dating Committee, you know,

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Speaker 1: part of the the n B e R, it does

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Speaker 1: actually have a habit of calling a recession after the fact.

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Speaker 1: And I think the reason for this is, you know,

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Speaker 1: they've got as you as you kind of pointed out,

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Speaker 1: they've got a lot of data to to look at.

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Speaker 1: It's not a simple question of you know, they're not

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Speaker 1: flipping a coin or anything. You know, this is a

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Speaker 1: this is a pretty involved process. So you know, we

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Speaker 1: could we could actually be already the U. S could

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Speaker 1: already be in a recession. It just hasn't you know,

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Speaker 1: they have doesn't sound like it though, Well what does

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Speaker 1: a recession sound like? Bong? Yeah, what's what sort of

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Speaker 1: pitch is a recession at? So yeah, I mean we

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Speaker 1: could be in a recession. We could well be in

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Speaker 1: a recession, but it just hasn't been declared yet. So

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Speaker 1: there's these sort of factors to take into take into account.

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Speaker 1: And I think, as you've kind of hinted at as well,

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Speaker 1: if we are in a recession, if the US is

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Speaker 1: in a recession, it's a it's a kind of weird

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Speaker 1: recession because usually a recession means obviously negative growth, but

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Speaker 1: it also means job losses as well. And we've you know,

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Speaker 1: we've seen this play out time and time again. You know,

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Speaker 1: I remember my I remember my dad losing his job

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Speaker 1: during a recession back in the nineties, I think it was.

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Speaker 1: And you know, it's a very sort of it's you know,

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Speaker 1: it's everyone feels it. You know, you have job losses,

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Speaker 1: people have less money, in their pockets. You know, you

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Speaker 1: really feel, you really feel everything sort of slowing down. However,

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Speaker 1: over in the US, the this is not the case

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Speaker 1: because it's been employed. Yeah, the job market there is

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Speaker 1: is weird. I mean, it's tempting to say the job

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Speaker 1: market is really strong, but it's a gig economy now

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Speaker 1: or well. There are a few factors impacting. I mean, firstly,

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Speaker 1: it's worth pointing out that the job market in the

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Speaker 1: US there are apparently two jobs for every applicant. You know,

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Speaker 1: there's a huge amount of there's a huge amount of vacancies.

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Speaker 1: And at the last count, the US added sort of

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Speaker 1: four hundred thousand new jobs I think it was in

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Speaker 1: the last quarter or so. So that is still great

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Speaker 1: from them. Like listening up for a session, yeah yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: they added eight eight people in particular, I got a

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Speaker 1: job of at the at the business session. Yeah, just

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Speaker 1: stood on top of watchtowers just trying to see it

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Speaker 1: is that it is that? It is that it over there?

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Speaker 1: No no, no, no, that's a seagull um. So yes.

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Speaker 1: And also we've got things that consumer spending in the

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Speaker 1: US for June was up, which is not the sort

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Speaker 1: of thing you expect to see in a recession. So

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Speaker 1: maybe there is some validity to to Biden's saying it

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Speaker 1: doesn't sound like a recession. Yeah, I mean, he's obviously

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Speaker 1: got you know, he's obviously got plenty of reasons and

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Speaker 1: to want to say that, But I think, yeah, it is.

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Speaker 1: It is. It is backed up by statistics to an extent.

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Speaker 1: You know, consumer spending is up and the job market

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Speaker 1: is still strong. Now, there were, as you say, there

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Speaker 1: are kind of there are a few reasons why. I

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Speaker 1: mean this, this job situation in the US is unprecedented

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Speaker 1: as well, and this is largely because of COVID. I

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Speaker 1: think because we had what there was this great resignation,

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Speaker 1: and this wasn't unique to the US, but I think

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Speaker 1: the US has felt it in particular. Loads of people,

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Speaker 1: for instance, took early retirement, so you know, they had

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Speaker 1: a lot of people leaving the workforce. They haven't been replaced.

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Speaker 1: But also a lot of a lot of it is unexplained.

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Speaker 1: A lot of people appear to have dropped out. You know,

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Speaker 1: they still have several years of working in front of them,

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Speaker 1: but they just they don't seem to have returned to

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Speaker 1: the economy. And everyone's kind of trying to figure out

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Speaker 1: why this is. And I think there are a few.

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Speaker 1: I think there are a few sort of reasons. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: you've got I think some people probably you know, the

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Speaker 1: gig economy perhaps has has kind of hoovered up a

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Speaker 1: lot of people. There are probably a lot of people

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Speaker 1: in sort of much less official employment, you know, maybe

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Speaker 1: doing you know, maybe doing lots of side hustles here

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Speaker 1: and there. I think also as well, basically a lot

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Speaker 1: of people are now influencers as well. Yeah, yeah, basically

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Speaker 1: the influencers sector has mushroomed like a fungus, like like bacteria.

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Speaker 1: We we multiply very very quickly as influences. Um. I

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Speaker 1: think as well, you know we're seeing here in the UK,

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Speaker 1: you know, we we've got sort of travel chaos at

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Speaker 1: the moment, and airports in particular have been really bad

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Speaker 1: because loads of you know, loads of companies, loads of

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Speaker 1: airlines and and and also airports themselves. When the pandemic hit,

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Speaker 1: they let people go, you know, they said, right, sorry,

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Speaker 1: no one's flying, so you ain't got a job, and

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Speaker 1: you know, people have found other jobs and yeah, so

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Speaker 1: a lot of people have kind of moved into other

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Speaker 1: jobs and stuff. But I think as well, there's probably

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Speaker 1: a sense of a lot of people going right. So

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Speaker 1: I had this job and obviously things things went bad,

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Speaker 1: and I was just I was let go like that,

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Speaker 1: you know, I was just priscible, And I think I

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Speaker 1: think there must be a real genuine sense of a

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Speaker 1: lot of people here, you know, going, Okay, why should

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Speaker 1: I return to an industry now that needs me? That

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Speaker 1: that dropped me like a hot potato when when the

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Speaker 1: going got tough, you know, like an ex girlfriend who

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Speaker 1: keeps dumping you, and you're just like, why am I

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Speaker 1: returning to this? Yeah? And then you go back anyway? Now,

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Speaker 1: So I think there's that. There's yeah. So there's the

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Speaker 1: US job market and job markets elsewhere I think are

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Speaker 1: in a very weird state at them, in this weird

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Speaker 1: sort of post COVID state. So what this means is, yeah,

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Speaker 1: the circumstances of this supposed recession are weird. They're not

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Speaker 1: they're not conforming to what our idea of a recession is.

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Speaker 1: And this is leading many people, and obviously you know,

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Speaker 1: those in the administration, in the US administration, to say, now,

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Speaker 1: this isn't a recession, this is this is something different. Um. Now,

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Speaker 1: the weird thing was again, Now, a lot of people

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Speaker 1: when these GDP figures would do a lot of us

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Speaker 1: were saying, well, they're probably going to show a recession.

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Speaker 1: This is you know, on a technical term, you know,

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Speaker 1: we're going to have a second negative quarter of US

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Speaker 1: GDP growth. This is bad news. So the markets will

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Speaker 1: react accordingly, the markets will tank on that news. Weirdly,

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Speaker 1: they didn't, they actually went up in Yeah. I think

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Speaker 1: markets certainly price in bad news ahead of time. You know,

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Speaker 1: you can, you know, any sort of season market participant

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Speaker 1: can see these things on the horizon. You know, they'll

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Speaker 1: have they'll have these days circled on their calendar and read. So, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think you're right in that sense. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: that would have been most people were expecting that, so

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Speaker 1: that would have been priced in. But also it kind

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Speaker 1: of ties into inflation as well, because many many believe

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Speaker 1: that if if the US is in recession, then this

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Speaker 1: will force the Federal Reserve when they come back from

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Speaker 1: their holiday in September, this will force them to ease

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Speaker 1: off on on raising interest rates. So there's there's an

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Speaker 1: expectation that you know, either rate rises will slow. I mean,

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Speaker 1: some people seem to think that they might stop I

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Speaker 1: don't think that's I don't think that's likely at all.

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Speaker 1: I think interest rates are likely to keep going up,

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Speaker 1: probably for at least the rest of this year, because

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Speaker 1: inflation just isn't going away, and really the only way

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Speaker 1: you can tackle inflation is with raising interest rates. A

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Speaker 1: lot of people are also speculating um that inflation might

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Speaker 1: have already peaked, certainly in the US, and actually Elon

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Speaker 1: Musk put out a tweet to this effect, I think

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Speaker 1: last week, you know, suggesting that maybe we've kind of

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Speaker 1: seen the top, and if inflation is shown to have peaked,

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Speaker 1: then again that means that rate rises will at best,

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Speaker 1: you know, ease off. So again we had this kind

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Speaker 1: of rally in the markets on on on this, you know,

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Speaker 1: these these negative figures which under different circumstances you think

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Speaker 1: would actually have tanked them. Uh So again, it's just

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Speaker 1: this very very weird situation that we've got around. Are

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Speaker 1: we in recession? Are we not in a recession? Now?

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Speaker 1: This is in the US, but it's the picture is

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Speaker 1: much grimmer elsewhere, and especially in Europe as well, because

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Speaker 1: the factors that are driving inflation across the world are

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Speaker 1: being felt a lot more in Europe. You know, things

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Speaker 1: like high energy prices, high fuel prices, rising food prices,

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Speaker 1: things like that. You know, the price of everything is

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Speaker 1: going up, and we're feeling that here in the UK.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's feeling it everywhere and these just aren't going to

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Speaker 1: go away, and especially in Europe. We've got the threat,

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Speaker 1: I mean that the war in Ukraine is continuing. We've

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Speaker 1: also got you know, Putin sort of his hand is

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Speaker 1: kind of hovering over the gas taps. And there was

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Speaker 1: this thing just just recently, just a few days ago,

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Speaker 1: you know, the nord Stream pipeline was shut down for

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Speaker 1: sort of routine maintenance and there was a lot of

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Speaker 1: concern that the Russians just wouldn't open it up again,

429
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:03,639
Speaker 1: and everyone was sort of holding their breath, and then

430
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 1: they did turn it on again, but it's running at

431
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 1: a reduced capacity. And what this means is that Europe

432
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 1: isn't able to kind of stock up on gas reserves

433
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 1: ahead of the winter. So we've got this kind of

434
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:19,679
Speaker 1: situation where Putin is very much you know, using Russian

435
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 1: gas as as a kind of weapon, as you know,

436
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 1: as leverage in this in this situation in Ukraine. So

437
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 1: this is really weighing on European markets. But these effects

438
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 1: are these effects ripple out, so this will be having

439
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 1: an effect you know, on the even places like the

440
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 1: U S which is much more energy independent than Europe

441
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 1: is so um. And it's also worth pointing out as

442
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 1: well that although things like consumer spending in the US

443
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 1: is up, consumer confidence is actually down and industrial production

444
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 1: is down as well. So and I think long term

445
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: these are going to these are going to have an

446
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 1: effect because the effect of the rising interest rates. You know,

447
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 1: the temptation is to think, oh, well, they've risen it,

448
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 1: their interest rates have gone up, so the market hasn't tanked,

449
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,719
Speaker 1: so everything's fine. Actually, interest rate rises take time. All

450
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 1: of this stuff kind of takes time to work its

451
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 1: way through the economy. So the effects of FED policy

452
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: today they won't be felt until, you know, weeks, maybe

453
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 1: even months down the line. So it's important to realize

454
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 1: that we're everything is kind of moving very very slowly,

455
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 1: so it feels like we're sort of sliding down this

456
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 1: you know, this rather slippery slope. And as people's bills

457
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 1: go up, and again I'm talking in sort of global

458
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 1: terms here, you know, not just in the US, but

459
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 1: as people's bills go up. As energy gets more expensive,

460
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 1: as food gets more expensive, people are going to have

461
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:55,159
Speaker 1: to cut back on what's what's called discretionary spending, you know,

462
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 1: so you know, anything treats, you know, things like clothes

463
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 1: or go out or you know, any of this sort

464
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 1: of holidays. Yeah, anything that's not sort of really essential

465
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 1: is going to be your home heating, your well. Yeah,

466
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 1: this is We've talked about this before, hasn't. I mean,

467
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 1: this is a genuine this is a genuine concern for

468
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: this winter Like this, the specter of winter this year

469
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 1: is really really you know, is really really scary. So yeah,

470
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 1: as as people's bills go up, discretionary spending goes down.

471
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:27,959
Speaker 1: So I think we are going to feel the effects

472
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 1: of that very soon. And this will mean job cuts.

473
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: So this will mean hiring freezers as well. You know,

474
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 1: So this is gonna there's the long term picture, if

475
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,400
Speaker 1: you like. Although at the moment it doesn't seem so bad,

476
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 1: the long term picture does look quite grim. On that note,

477
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,919
Speaker 1: should we take a break to compose ourselves with all

478
00:26:48,960 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 1: this bad news? Welcome back to part two. So we've

479
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 1: been talking about we've been talking about sort of global

480
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 1: macroeconomic factors. If you like that have been affecting the

481
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 1: markets recently. I want to talk now about some kind

482
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: of crypto specific factors, because this is a crypto podcast,

483
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 1: after all, why are crypto markets going up? Why have

484
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 1: we not seen this massive sell off? Part of it

485
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 1: has been, of course, is of course related to those

486
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 1: things we were talking about earlier, you know, recession fears

487
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 1: and interest rate rising GDP, etcetera, etcetera. But there are

488
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 1: some crypto specific factors at play here as well, and

489
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:42,399
Speaker 1: I think the most important one to mention is in

490
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 1: relation to Ethereum. Now we've talked about the transition of

491
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 1: Ethereum from this energy hungry proof of proof of work

492
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 1: network to proof of steak, and this this transition over

493
00:27:56,240 --> 00:28:00,119
Speaker 1: to proof of steak is called the merge. And the

494
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 1: merge has been delayed time and time again, and it's

495
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 1: it's become a bit of a meme and crypto. But

496
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 1: at the moment, all the news around the merge is

497
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 1: actually good and it looks like, as we as I

498
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: say this, the merge is kind of slated for the

499
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:22,120
Speaker 1: of September. Okay, so this is this is good news

500
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 1: if the merger, and certainly if the merge goes ahead

501
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 1: as as planned on the nineteen September without any issues.

502
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 1: That will that will have that will pump the crypto

503
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 1: market Ethereum specifically, but it will it will pull the

504
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 1: whole crypto market up with it. So a lot of

505
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 1: people are anticipating this good news in you know, a

506
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 1: little over a month's time now. Before the actual merge

507
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 1: takes place on the Ethereum main net, it has to

508
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 1: go through two other test net mergers, and it's already

509
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 1: gone through loads of mergers on various Ethereum test nets,

510
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 1: but the final two are now on the horizon, and

511
00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 1: in fact, the first one, called Prater, is scheduled to

512
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: go ahead in well a couple of days from when

513
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 1: we record this, so actually as this comes out, it

514
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,480
Speaker 1: should have hopefully gone ahead the day before. Basically the

515
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 1: fourth of August is when that is scheduled to go ahead.

516
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: And then there's another one called Girly Girly spelled g

517
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 1: O E r l I the Girly or Girly, I

518
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 1: don't know, I hope you know's it that is scheduled

519
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 1: for some time between the six and the twelfth of August.

520
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 1: So if these go ahead as planned, that means the

521
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 1: merge itself is still very much on for the nineteen September,

522
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 1: and this has been this kind of good news, This

523
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 1: anticipation has really been propping up the crypto market of late.

524
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 1: We've seen, you know, a big rally in the price

525
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 1: of Ethereum, in the price of eight, but also in

526
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 1: a in a lot of other related tokens as well.

527
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 1: So steth is staked ether on Lido finance, that's pumped

528
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 1: as well. The actual Lido token itself has done very well. Weirdly,

529
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: another one that has done well and in fact one

530
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: of the biggest gainers over the past three weeks, has

531
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 1: been Ethereum Classic. Now to some this may seem a

532
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 1: bit counterintuitive because ethere you remember the split, yeah exactly.

533
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: Ethereum Classic came about as a result of this hard

534
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 1: fork in the wake of the in the in the

535
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 1: wake of this sort of catastrophic dow hack a few

536
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 1: years ago that we talked about, and you know, the

537
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 1: only way that the Ethereum developers could see to sort

538
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 1: of make this good was to split the network. And

539
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 1: so the Ethereum Classics was Classic was the one that

540
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 1: kind of carried on as though this dow hack had

541
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 1: taken place, and Ethereum Classic has kind of chugged along

542
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 1: ever since, and you know, has nothing like the sort

543
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 1: of development or adoption that Ethereum has, but nevertheless it

544
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: is still there. Now. The reason why Ethereum Classic has

545
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: been doing so well is all because of Ethereum's anticipated

546
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 1: transition to proof of steak. Because at the moment, there

547
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 1: are lots of people, there are lots of miners basically

548
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: still using proof of work to mine either. The question

549
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 1: is what do they do with their mining machines when

550
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 1: Ethereum moves over to proof of steak is different type

551
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 1: of machine obviously, Well, it's yea doing a different yeah,

552
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 1: because they you know, you with proof of steak, you know,

553
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 1: all this this validation is done by your your staking coins.

554
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 1: You're not you know, you're not expending electricity, you're not

555
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 1: needing to you're not needing to go through the mining process.

556
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 1: So the question is what they're going to have all

557
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 1: these mining machines, what do they do with them? And

558
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 1: what's expected is that a lot of them are going

559
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 1: to switch over to mining Ethereum Classic to mining its etc. Coin.

560
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: So obviously more mining, more hashpower committed to the Ethereum

561
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 1: Classic network will mean that it's more secure, and a

562
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 1: lot of people are anticipating that this could see a

563
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 1: lot more development on Ethereum Classic because it's more secure

564
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 1: because there are more miners participate on its network. So

565
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 1: that guy who's got the all that is sitting on Goldener, oh,

566
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 1: the dow Hat guy. Yes, yeah, I imagine, yeah, he

567
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 1: could be. He could he could be feeling pretty good

568
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: about it. I can't remember what happened, though, I think

569
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: he might have. I don't know. He might have been

570
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 1: forced to sell it. Anyhow, it's good news for him,

571
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: you would imagine. So there's yes, So this is this

572
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 1: is good news, and this has been helping to sort

573
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 1: of drive the crypto market as a whole. It's sort

574
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 1: of sentiment has has um gotten gotten better since the

575
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: since the sort of disasters of terror and more recently

576
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 1: kind of Celsius and Voyager and things like that, which

577
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 1: actually neatly, neatly leads me on to this this this

578
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 1: issue of these kind of bankrupt lending and borrowing and

579
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: trading platforms um so we're starting to see some sort

580
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 1: of progress with those with the likes of Celsius and Voyager,

581
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 1: and things like that. Celsius has now officially filed for bankruptcy.

582
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 1: And I think you could argue that this kind of again,

583
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 1: this is this issue of sort of certainty, of of clarity, um.

584
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 1: And I think once the uncertainty around Celsius was kind

585
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 1: of removed in that sense, will they far for bankruptcy,

586
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 1: will they try and dig themselves out of the whole

587
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 1: what's going to happen? I think that clarity has has

588
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 1: also sort of helped to boost markets a little bit. Yeah,

589
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 1: it's although it's it sounds a little counterintuitive because I mean,

590
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 1: something going down and under is not good, but at

591
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 1: least okay, cool that we can just talk that off

592
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 1: and okay, cool, it's not and I suppose it's just

593
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 1: it's it's whether that is going to have another ripple

594
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: effect on something else. Yeah, yeah, you know what what

595
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 1: happens basically what happens now with the likes of Celsius.

596
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 1: Voyager is also far for bankruptcy too. Now, it's been

597
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 1: interesting kind of looking at what's been happening with Celsius

598
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 1: in particular recently some sort of former employees have been

599
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 1: speaking to sort of various media outlets and yeah, and

600
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 1: and Celsius itself has now started its bankruptcy hearing. So

601
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 1: it's it's we're going to buy the yacht. Well, oh

602
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 1: that's that's three arrows capital. Yeah, well we'll talk about

603
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 1: them in a moment actually, because that's there's been there's

604
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:10,320
Speaker 1: been some developments on that front as well. Um, it

605
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 1: sounds like from what Celsius employees have been saying and

606
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 1: from what the company has sort of been saying at

607
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: the its first bankruptcy hearing, it looks like, um, not

608
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 1: so much a case of criminal wrongdoing, but just utter incompetence, negligent, Yeah,

609
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 1: bad practices, you know, bad risk management. The company just

610
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 1: wasn't being run well. They were chasing these high yields

611
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 1: for its for its customers, and um, you know that

612
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 1: that appears to be in the situation more often than

613
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 1: than coming up roses. Yeah. Yeah. And obviously the markets,

614
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 1: you know, the market going down. Obviously this is related

615
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 1: back to terror and things like this. You know, the

616
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 1: market moved against it. The tide went out and they

617
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 1: were swimming naked paraphrase Warren Buffett. So the what happens

618
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 1: now is this protracted process, this protracted bankruptcy process gets

619
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: underway and with the ultimate aim of kind of making

620
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:11,319
Speaker 1: Celsius users whole again. Now, this will this will take

621
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:13,800
Speaker 1: a long time. This could take we we did a

622
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,320
Speaker 1: video on it recently, we reckon It could take between

623
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: sort of two and four years um for you know,

624
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: for that that is for all Celsius users to get there,

625
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 1: to get their funds back, um. And what will as

626
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,359
Speaker 1: I think, as I've said before, you know, the people

627
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: who had a lot of money, the big whales on Celsius,

628
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 1: they will get their money back first, and then you know,

629
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 1: the little guys will just have to kind of wait

630
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 1: in line. However, you know, at least this process is

631
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 1: in train. That is, that is something. And I think

632
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,400
Speaker 1: there's also a sense across the crypto markets that in

633
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 1: the wake of these collapses, a lot of leverage has

634
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 1: gotten flushed out of the system, a lot of forced selling,

635
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 1: you know, that that that that these companies and others

636
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 1: have been you know, have been obliged to do. At

637
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 1: seems and I say this with you know, touch Wood,

638
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 1: that seems to be coming to an end. That doesn't

639
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,400
Speaker 1: seem to be quite so much forced selling going on.

640
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 1: So a lot of people are kind of hopeful that

641
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 1: I guess the worst is over in that respect, and

642
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 1: this could be having you know, a kind of this

643
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 1: could be being felt in in the markets as well.

644
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 1: Um and yeah, in relation to what you were saying

645
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 1: about Three Arrows Capital, you know, this disgraced head front,

646
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:28,800
Speaker 1: they that that is in the process of being liquidated

647
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 1: as well. Now that there is concern that obviously it's

648
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 1: assets will have to be sold off in order to

649
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 1: you know, in order to to to make good you know,

650
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 1: investors and things like that, this could exert some cell

651
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 1: pressure down the lines. So you know, it's it's we're

652
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: not in the clear yet by any sense. What was

653
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:50,399
Speaker 1: interesting was just the founders of Three Arrows Capital, Kyle

654
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 1: Davis and Josue they gave an interview to to Bloomberg recently.

655
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: They kind of surfaced, if you like, they've basically been

656
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 1: in hiding for the past few weeks, and they kind

657
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 1: of surfaced to give this interview to Bloomberg, which didn't

658
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 1: go down. Well. Is it sort of on par with

659
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 1: Prince Andrew? Yeah, Yeah, it's that it left that same

660
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 1: sort of bad smell. It's that, you know, it's that

661
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,800
Speaker 1: sort of thing a pizza express. They didn't claim to

662
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 1: be in in a pizza express and working at the time. Um. Yeah,

663
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 1: it was very sort of you know, there was a

664
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: sense that they were sort of trying to you know,

665
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 1: trying to put the blame elsewhere, and that they said

666
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,359
Speaker 1: some silly things like one of the guys was like, well,

667
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 1: you know, everyone thinks we were living it up. I

668
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: mean I only earned two houses in Singapore, only two,

669
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 1: you poor thing, and two jags. Yeah, it's I've only

670
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 1: got two. I've only got two jaguars. Um, as you

671
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 1: pointed out, they've got this yacht as well. M P.

672
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 1: And obviously the yacht was brought into the quote here,

673
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 1: I'll read it out. The yacht apparently was quote bought

674
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 1: over a year ago and commissioned to be built and

675
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 1: used in Europe. That was your end quote. That was.

676
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 1: That was the sort of explanation of it. It's like,

677
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 1: so that's all right then, always bo always bored over

678
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 1: a year ago. That was that's yesterday's news. Yeah, come on,

679
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 1: forget the yacht. I've only got one yacht and it's

680
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 1: for your they need cheering up. Come on, dude, the

681
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 1: yacht is not the issue here. Um. Yeah, it was.

682
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 1: It was very board of that yacht, just just part

683
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:33,359
Speaker 1: of the board. Yacht club. Just look past the yacht people, please,

684
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 1: can we stop talking about the yacht? Yeah, so there

685
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:39,839
Speaker 1: was those guys sort I don't think that you had

686
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 1: any particular effect on the market. But where can I

687
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 1: watch that Bloomberg into Bloomberg. It's yeah, it's not a

688
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 1: it's not a videotaped and I'll leave a link to

689
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: it in the show notes. People can have a look

690
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 1: at it, because if it was, it would just be

691
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 1: memed beyond. Yeah. Yeah, and I think probably for that reason,

692
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,800
Speaker 1: you know, they probably turned down any any request to

693
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 1: film as well. Um, and yeah, I mean like very quiet,

694
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 1: like do kuon the terror guy, very very quiet. A

695
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 1: lot of people have gone very quiet radio silence, Yeah,

696
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 1: real radio silence. And I mean, you know, it's understandable.

697
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,359
Speaker 1: I'm sure they've got other things that we do. Yeah,

698
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 1: you'd think so, you'd think so Voyager as well. I mean,

699
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 1: this is this was just crazy. It's so Voyager has

700
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 1: been well is obviously in the bankruptcy process as well.

701
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 1: But Voyager had also claimed on its website that it

702
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 1: was that it was f d i C covered the

703
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 1: Federal Deposit Insurance corporation. Um, now that we have an

704
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:51,879
Speaker 1: equivalent here in the UK, it's that, yeah, exactly Here

705
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 1: in the UK. It's called the f s c S,

706
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 1: the Financial Services Compensation scheme. Basically, your deposits are are

707
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 1: covered up to a certain amount. And Voyage it was

708
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 1: claiming on its website that it was f d I

709
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,839
Speaker 1: c ensured, so people were looking at it and go, oh, well,

710
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 1: it must be legit, you know, because even if it

711
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 1: does go under, it's covered. My deposits are covered. This

712
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 1: this was this was not true. It's basically Voyagers Bank,

713
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 1: the bank that Voyager used was f d I C protected.

714
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 1: Voyager itself wasn't. And Voyager has now been instructed in

715
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 1: no uncertain terms to remove that from its website. So

716
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:31,839
Speaker 1: I'm sure that will make everyone feel a lot better.

717
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, okay, yeah, so criminal, Well, I want I

718
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 1: suppose they're gonna be sued, but what they're going to

719
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 1: see them for? Yeah, gone, yeah, it's yeah, it's it's

720
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 1: there's there's so much more to you know, to come

721
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:49,800
Speaker 1: out over this story and stuff, but yeah, it's it

722
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:54,279
Speaker 1: just looks like it looks like, yeah, I think that's that.

723
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 1: I think that's the technical technic anyhow, So that's kind

724
00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 1: of crypto related factors. I'm not I'm not too sure

725
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 1: whether you know, what's been going on with Celsius and

726
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 1: Voyager and and all the rest of it. I'm not

727
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 1: sure whether that's impacted too much on the markets. But

728
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:12,799
Speaker 1: as I say, I think certainly that kind of resolution

729
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 1: in the case of Celsius, I think that that did

730
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 1: bring has brought a little bit of clarity to things.

731
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:20,399
Speaker 1: I just want to cut touch briefly on a couple

732
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 1: of other sort of crypto specific things or things that

733
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:25,360
Speaker 1: I think you know are moving the crypto markets. In particular,

734
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 1: we had some we saw some fairly decent some good

735
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:31,799
Speaker 1: news and bad news from the tech sector last week. Now,

736
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 1: crypto is very much correlated to tech stocks, particularly those

737
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 1: on the NASDAC at the momentum. And we had some

738
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 1: earnings reports from last week. Now, Apple and Amazon both

739
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 1: surpassed expectations. Apple has Apple did really quite well. It's better,

740
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 1: and it's now back to number one company by market cap,

741
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 1: which is just crazy. Um. And I mean it's interesting

742
00:41:56,640 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 1: that because that's what something is. They're quite luxury items. Yeah, well, yeah,

743
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 1: you'd I mentioned so and also just with the supply

744
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 1: chain that is just obviously I thought was decimated. I

745
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,439
Speaker 1: would have thought they would have struggled to be making things. Yeah,

746
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 1: or do they have they with it? Did they predict that?

747
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 1: And and and sort of I'm not sure. I think probably.

748
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:19,720
Speaker 1: I mean, Apple was certainly impacted by supply changes, especially

749
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 1: as a lot of its products are put together in China. Um.

750
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 1: I think probably the reason why it surpassed expectations in earnings,

751
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 1: um because the expectations were low. The expectation, Yeah, I

752
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 1: think we're pretty low. I think you know, these supply

753
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 1: chains are starting to sort of grind wheat finally coming

754
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 1: out of the Ukraine. Yeah. Yeah, So you know, it

755
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:40,760
Speaker 1: looks like, I mean, we're not out of the woods

756
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 1: in any sense yet. And you know, if we get

757
00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:45,280
Speaker 1: this is you know, if we get more COVID lockdowns

758
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 1: in China or elsewhere, that could be a real disruptive factor.

759
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 1: So but it does look like they're starting to sort

760
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 1: of grind back into into life again. So that could be.

761
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 1: But you know, one of the reasons why Apple is

762
00:42:56,800 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: looking better. Um, Google was slightly below expectations, but not

763
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 1: too bad. You know, it was so Google's had or alphabet,

764
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 1: you know, Google's parents coming That was okay, Microsoft and

765
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 1: Meta formally Facebook didn't do too well though, um so

766
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 1: we had a kind of mixed bag on the tech

767
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 1: sector on the tech earnings front. But all in all,

768
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 1: you know, if if the likes of Apple and Amazon

769
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 1: are doing well, you know, I think a lot of

770
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 1: people interpreted this as a sign that maybe things weren't

771
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 1: quite as bad as some people would lead you to believe, because,

772
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 1: as you say, you know, if if we are in

773
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:34,320
Speaker 1: a recession, if people are tightening their belts, you'd imagine

774
00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:36,800
Speaker 1: that would hit you know, people would buy you know,

775
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 1: people would put off buying that iPhone, or you know,

776
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 1: they wouldn't be buying their usual levels of crap on Amazon.

777
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm still on what is this one? I

778
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 1: didn't get the last one and improugal of you. I'm

779
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 1: normally normally Apple fanboy that are just just pump pump,

780
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 1: pump whatever. Cash I've got into a new new iPhone

781
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 1: really yeah, but I just I haven't for the last year,

782
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 1: and I've been thinking about it because the new one

783
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 1: doesn't look that great. Okay, Well, anyway, this is now

784
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 1: an Apple podcast. Watch Watch Apple's share price nose dive

785
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:14,439
Speaker 1: as this comes. Oh my work didn't buy a new iPhone. Yes,

786
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:17,359
Speaker 1: so a bit of a mixed bag from tech. But yeah,

787
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 1: I think some people can interpret those decent earnings from

788
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 1: Apple and Amazon as maybe a sign that things aren't

789
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 1: so bad. So that could have had an effect on

790
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,320
Speaker 1: the market. I think, like I said earlier on in

791
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 1: the episode, I think we're still you know, we're that

792
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:33,960
Speaker 1: bad news is going to make itself felt later on,

793
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 1: So that's worth being aware of. Another crypto specific factor, Now,

794
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 1: this is related to coin Base, but this is not

795
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 1: unique to coin Base. Basically, coin Base is having a

796
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 1: rough time, not as rough as some crypto companies. Obviously, um,

797
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:52,680
Speaker 1: it's under some of one of its former employees is

798
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:57,920
Speaker 1: under investigation for insider trading. ARC invest, which is a big,

799
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 1: you know, a big investor. Coin Base recently dumped one

800
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 1: point four million coin Base shares at a loss. Um,

801
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 1: and you know, this is this is bad news. This

802
00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:12,799
Speaker 1: is a bad look for the company. It's also it's

803
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:15,799
Speaker 1: also had to lay off a lot of people. It's basically, yeah,

804
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,400
Speaker 1: coin Base hasn't had much good news recently. Now, obviously

805
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:20,280
Speaker 1: coin Base is one of the most well known crypto

806
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 1: companies out there. So this does have an effect on

807
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 1: the rest of the market. But the real concern for

808
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:28,800
Speaker 1: coin Base is that it's being investigated by the SEC.

809
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 1: And yes, the SEC recently came out and said that

810
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 1: nine assets, that nine crypto assets that coin Base had

811
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 1: listed on its platform, it the SEC considered them to

812
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:43,439
Speaker 1: be securities. Now we've talked about securities a lot before.

813
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:46,280
Speaker 1: We know, you know what happens if the SEC thinks

814
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 1: something that someone is selling unregistered securities in the US,

815
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:54,719
Speaker 1: you know, it is bad news. So the SEC is, yeah,

816
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 1: is sniffing around coin Base, and um, it looks like

817
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 1: I think the SEC seems to kind of have the

818
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:03,479
Speaker 1: wind in it sails a little bit at the moment.

819
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 1: So I think this is something that's going to weigh

820
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 1: on the crypto market in you know, in the in

821
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 1: the not thinking. That's one of the reasons why I think, yeah,

822
00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:19,719
Speaker 1: we're we're not. Is this ripple sorry XRP. Yeah, that

823
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 1: that case is still dragging through that I thought there was.

824
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:24,879
Speaker 1: I mean, some people are saying it's going to pump,

825
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 1: some people are saying it's not. Some people are saying, hey,

826
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 1: you know what they could actually win this. They could

827
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 1: certainly win the case. Yeah, we're interestingly, the SEC is

828
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 1: actually pursuing another case against another much smaller project called

829
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 1: Library Um and it's alleging that it's sold it's it's

830
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 1: crypto asset as as an unregistered security and there's a

831
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:50,280
Speaker 1: judgment expected on this in the next couple of months,

832
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:53,760
Speaker 1: I think, and people are watching this very very closely

833
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 1: because it may set a precedent. Yeah, and if it does,

834
00:46:56,920 --> 00:47:00,120
Speaker 1: if the SEC wins that case, that could be that

835
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 1: could be bad news, not just for Ripple, but for

836
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 1: the you know, for the rest of the crypto industry.

837
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 1: So the SEC is kind of like, you know, it's

838
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:10,440
Speaker 1: a bit of an unexploded bomb under the crypto market

839
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:12,560
Speaker 1: at the moment, and we're going to have to keep

840
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:15,800
Speaker 1: a very close eye on on what on what Gary

841
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 1: Gensler and his gang are up to, because yeah, I

842
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:20,600
Speaker 1: think this is something that's going to impact further down

843
00:47:20,680 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 1: the line, Okay, um, I want to look ahead to

844
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,840
Speaker 1: what could be coming next for both the wider you know,

845
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 1: for the wider world and also for crypto. So should

846
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:31,840
Speaker 1: we just take a quick break before we do that.

847
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:49,799
Speaker 1: We're back four parts three where we're going to We're

848
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:53,800
Speaker 1: going to look ahead what could be on the horizon

849
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 1: keyword there could not predicting the future here, So what

850
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 1: could first of all, what could be coming next for

851
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:06,600
Speaker 1: the world, Well, I think definitely prepare for more volatility

852
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 1: in the markets. As I said earlier, the situation, especially

853
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:14,400
Speaker 1: in places like Europe, is not looking good and is

854
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 1: I think only going to get worse as winter sets in,

855
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:21,280
Speaker 1: as as whether gets colder. So I think continued disruption

856
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 1: from the war in Ukraine and just a worsening economic

857
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,360
Speaker 1: situation in Europe as a result of that. That is

858
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:29,680
Speaker 1: something I think that is pretty much nailed on for

859
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:32,839
Speaker 1: the next few months. I'd love to see some kind

860
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:35,120
Speaker 1: of resolution for that, but it's it's very hard to

861
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:38,480
Speaker 1: see that situation being resolved in the in the certainly

862
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,799
Speaker 1: in the short term. Um And I think as well,

863
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 1: you know, this situation, as we see energy prices soaring,

864
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:47,360
Speaker 1: I think this could have a real knock on effect

865
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 1: to just kind of the fabric of society, especially in

866
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 1: Europe and elsewhere. You know, the As I said, these

867
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 1: things tend to ripple out. I think as well, we're

868
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 1: going to see because of this worsening situation in Europe.

869
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:00,880
Speaker 1: I think we're going to see a lot of political

870
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 1: upheaval as well. I mean, the Italian Prime Minister Mario Druggie,

871
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:08,399
Speaker 1: he's already been sort of forced to resign. We're seeing

872
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:11,239
Speaker 1: unrest in the Netherlands. We've seen kind of farmers protests

873
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:13,480
Speaker 1: over I mean, this is, you know, very much related

874
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:16,719
Speaker 1: to environmental policies, but I think I think it's worth

875
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:18,600
Speaker 1: looking at it in a wider context as well. I

876
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:20,920
Speaker 1: think we're going to see a lot of theories on

877
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 1: this as well. Like Sri Lanka. Yeah, that that rad

878
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 1: Pas the family basically screwed the whole country, insisting that

879
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 1: everything we're just gonna be organic and then they couldn't

880
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:38,760
Speaker 1: grow enough that way just but but not even no foresight.

881
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 1: Then it's kind of like, okay, cool, no one can

882
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 1: eat now, no one can afford the land, and someone's

883
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:45,919
Speaker 1: going to buy it all. I wonder who. Yeah, Yeah,

884
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:49,359
Speaker 1: that's the situation in Sri Lanka is really really bad,

885
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 1: and I mean I think we're going to see we're

886
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:53,359
Speaker 1: going to see a repeat of that in a lot

887
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 1: of places, and quite possibly in Europe as well. Well. Yeah,

888
00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 1: it's happening in the Netherlands. It's happening in You've got

889
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 1: to use this fertilizer or you can't use this fertilizer,

890
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 1: I can't meet yeah, nitrogen in it or something like that,

891
00:50:07,360 --> 00:50:09,719
Speaker 1: and it's just like, well, Dutch fire. Yeah. The Dutch

892
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 1: farmers were like, well, you know, we can't grow enough

893
00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:16,400
Speaker 1: food then, um And they got in there as they

894
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 1: got in their tractors and made their presence felt so.

895
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 1: And I think this is only going to get more

896
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:25,399
Speaker 1: pronounced as as things get tougher, you know, as people

897
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 1: struggle to heat their homes or afford enough food, and

898
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:31,600
Speaker 1: you know, as job cuts bite, and as as recession

899
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 1: makes itself felt um. So, I think that is something

900
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 1: that is in the immediate future for Europe and other

901
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:43,360
Speaker 1: parts of the world as well. We've also had the

902
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:45,400
Speaker 1: the i m F, the International Monetary Fund, I mean

903
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 1: that forecast that the world heading is going to head

904
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:51,880
Speaker 1: into recession over the coming months, mostly because of inflation. Now,

905
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:54,960
Speaker 1: one economy that we haven't really talked about an awful lot.

906
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:56,799
Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about the US, We've talked quite

907
00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 1: a bit about Europe. We haven't really discussed China either,

908
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:04,360
Speaker 1: and China, China and China has its fair share of

909
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 1: problems too, and this is largely related to the property market. Um.

910
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:11,400
Speaker 1: We've had a lot, We've seen a lot, and it's

911
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:14,319
Speaker 1: it's difficult to get a clear sense of what's going

912
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:18,120
Speaker 1: on in China because they are suppression. Yeah, they are,

913
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 1: they are very much. They've very much got a sort

914
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 1: of suppression vibe going on. And you know it's well

915
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 1: I've speculated in in YouTube videos before that you know,

916
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 1: China tends to sort of massage its GDP figures up. UM.

917
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 1: So it's very difficult to get a clear sense of

918
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:37,880
Speaker 1: what exactly is going on in the Chinese economy because

919
00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 1: they don't want us to know. Um. But there's certainly

920
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 1: signs that the housing market there, which is massive, it

921
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 1: makes up an enormous proportion of of the Chinese economy um,

922
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:53,200
Speaker 1: and property has for a long time been the sort

923
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:56,360
Speaker 1: of number one investment for people in China. That is

924
00:51:56,680 --> 00:52:00,480
Speaker 1: that that market is sowing serious signs of ress. And

925
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 1: we saw this last year with the with concerns around

926
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:07,280
Speaker 1: ever Ground, which is this huge kind of property developer,

927
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 1: and well it kind of branched off into other things

928
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 1: as well, but there were there were lots of concerns

929
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 1: last year that it was going to default on its debts,

930
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 1: and it's still in a pretty precarious position. Um. And

931
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:23,000
Speaker 1: we've seen, you know, we've seen actual sort of you know,

932
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:28,040
Speaker 1: kickbacks from from Chinese, from Chinese citizens as well. A

933
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:32,240
Speaker 1: lot of property developers haven't been able to finish building

934
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:35,279
Speaker 1: these properties that a lot of investors have bought sort

935
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:36,879
Speaker 1: of you know, they buy them off plan, they brought

936
00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:40,759
Speaker 1: them before they were before they were built, and a

937
00:52:40,840 --> 00:52:44,920
Speaker 1: lot of people have stopped paying their mortgages in protest

938
00:52:45,400 --> 00:52:48,800
Speaker 1: because they've gone, look, you haven't finished building this, this apartment,

939
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 1: this house. The situation because they don't have the money

940
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 1: coming in. Yeah. I think that there's a few developments

941
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:57,480
Speaker 1: around here that were Chinese under being sold as well.

942
00:52:57,760 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 1: Really yeah, yeah, I mean it's one of them, was

943
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:02,759
Speaker 1: a big one just over there that they sold that

944
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 1: quite a loss really, just to to sort of get

945
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:10,440
Speaker 1: some cash. I mean, construction, you know, the proper the

946
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:13,719
Speaker 1: property and construction is massive business and of course you

947
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:17,480
Speaker 1: know these things, these things reach across the world and

948
00:53:17,560 --> 00:53:20,760
Speaker 1: obviously very very precarious as well. I mean, there's insane

949
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 1: profits to be made, but you know, construction and property

950
00:53:23,680 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 1: is very very vulnerable to you to economic to outside.

951
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:30,840
Speaker 1: So what is causing the Is it a stress in

952
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 1: that the bubble is going to burst, or is it

953
00:53:33,000 --> 00:53:36,520
Speaker 1: again supply chain issues and or is it it's a lot. Yeah,

954
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:39,600
Speaker 1: it's it's it's it's a sort of combination of factors really,

955
00:53:39,719 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 1: but yeah, you know, I think that that certainly supply

956
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 1: chain issues and COVID lockdowns have kind of hurt the

957
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 1: property sector. They they've they've slowed down development. You know,

958
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 1: lots of workers have been locked down, so they've been

959
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:53,239
Speaker 1: unable to finish a lot of these projects, and that,

960
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:55,839
Speaker 1: you know, that's part of the reason why you've seen

961
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:59,080
Speaker 1: these mortgage protests, you know, people not paying. Yeah, so

962
00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:01,520
Speaker 1: like the the costs are still there. They've probably got

963
00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:03,880
Speaker 1: some ongoing costs, but they haven't been developing, not finishing

964
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:07,480
Speaker 1: on time, and it's yeah, yeah, and we've also had

965
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 1: um you know that they've been there've been concerns around

966
00:54:11,040 --> 00:54:13,520
Speaker 1: bank deposits in parts of China as well. So there

967
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 1: was this rolled out in tanks, Yeah, they have. It

968
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:22,120
Speaker 1: was obviously just a tank exercise, not anything. Just happened

969
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 1: to be conducting an exercise in the area at time. Yeah,

970
00:54:25,080 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 1: So there were these bank runs on sort of regional

971
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 1: banks in China. People were worried that, you know, that

972
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:35,080
Speaker 1: their savings were at risk. Do they not have the

973
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 1: thing that Yeah, I mean they could do they could do.

974
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:42,319
Speaker 1: It's but you know, all it takes is a bit

975
00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 1: of is a lack of confidence. Um. And you know

976
00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:49,719
Speaker 1: that these protests, you know, you don't you don't really

977
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:52,439
Speaker 1: protest in public in China and expect to get away

978
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:56,840
Speaker 1: with it. Um. So, Yeah, the the Chinese economy is

979
00:54:56,960 --> 00:55:02,840
Speaker 1: looking like every other economy is looking. Yeah. And actually

980
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 1: I'm one of the things that I did do a

981
00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:07,759
Speaker 1: video over on our main channel about these kind of

982
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 1: Chinese bank runs and also Chinese GDP a few weeks

983
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:12,160
Speaker 1: ago as well. So if you want to kind of

984
00:55:12,200 --> 00:55:14,400
Speaker 1: dig more into that, then I urge people to have

985
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:17,240
Speaker 1: a look at that. However, also on the topic of China,

986
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 1: we've got Taiwan and they're being emboldened by the Ukraine

987
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:26,759
Speaker 1: situation and and there's a lot of speculations like circling. Yeah,

988
00:55:27,480 --> 00:55:32,880
Speaker 1: Taiwan is kind of in the news at the moment um. Obviously,

989
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:36,359
Speaker 1: it's been a potential flashpoint for for a long long time,

990
00:55:36,560 --> 00:55:39,040
Speaker 1: And yeah, there was a lot of concern that China

991
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 1: could use you know, China could do a Russia basically

992
00:55:42,040 --> 00:55:45,759
Speaker 1: and go, right, we're going in Um and Biden and

993
00:55:46,080 --> 00:55:50,640
Speaker 1: President presidency. You know, I think they had they've exchanged

994
00:55:50,719 --> 00:55:53,560
Speaker 1: words over Taiwan. There's a lot of kind of Yeah,

995
00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 1: so there's been there's a lot of kind of saber rattling,

996
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:58,759
Speaker 1: a lot of posturing going on over Taiwan. That situation

997
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:04,080
Speaker 1: that just what we need absolutely absolutely, like yeah, um,

998
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:07,479
Speaker 1: it's it's a it really is the blackest of black

999
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 1: swans Taiwan. And actually it's kind of flashpoint as we record.

1000
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:17,719
Speaker 1: Why would China if they just do they need that? Well,

1001
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:22,879
Speaker 1: if they questioned, yeah, like do they do they need sanctions?

1002
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:27,560
Speaker 1: And and and if they're already on a precarious situation

1003
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 1: or do they see this as we're more battle ready

1004
00:56:33,960 --> 00:56:36,960
Speaker 1: than the West, Well, I mean, yeah, it could be.

1005
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:40,279
Speaker 1: On the one hand, it's a very it's such a

1006
00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:42,560
Speaker 1: difficult situation to call, isn't it, Because yeah, on the

1007
00:56:42,600 --> 00:56:46,719
Speaker 1: one hand, you could go China, Yeah, China suffering trying

1008
00:56:46,760 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 1: to suffering economically at the moment, really the last thing

1009
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:52,319
Speaker 1: it needs is to get dragged into a costly war

1010
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 1: because I mean, you know, Taiwan is an island. It's

1011
00:56:55,160 --> 00:56:57,719
Speaker 1: not it's not the easiest thing to invade, even if

1012
00:56:57,760 --> 00:57:00,239
Speaker 1: you have got the largest army in the world. Um,

1013
00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:03,439
Speaker 1: so it would you know, it would be expensive even

1014
00:57:03,560 --> 00:57:06,279
Speaker 1: just to do it. But I mean, you know, but

1015
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:09,600
Speaker 1: to say nothing of the potential consequences from the rest

1016
00:57:09,640 --> 00:57:11,680
Speaker 1: of the world. So there's that on the one hand,

1017
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 1: But there's also the sense, I mean, China has covered

1018
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:18,680
Speaker 1: Taiwan for decades and it could be thinking, look, if

1019
00:57:18,840 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 1: if there's a time to do it, it's now. You know,

1020
00:57:21,880 --> 00:57:24,560
Speaker 1: the US is the US is attracted. And of course

1021
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 1: we were saying this. I think lots of people are

1022
00:57:26,720 --> 00:57:30,600
Speaker 1: saying this. In Februaries, just before Russia rolled into Ukraine,

1023
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 1: you know, the question was like, why would Russia do this?

1024
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 1: Putin must know that there will be some sort of response,

1025
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:38,960
Speaker 1: you know, almost you know, almost certainly in the form

1026
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:44,120
Speaker 1: of sanctions. Um, possibly a military response as well, which

1027
00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 1: obviously didn't materialize. But yeah, I mean I remember when

1028
00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:51,920
Speaker 1: I remember waking up on four February or something when

1029
00:57:52,040 --> 00:57:54,120
Speaker 1: Russia went in, you just thought, and I think I

1030
00:57:54,200 --> 00:57:56,040
Speaker 1: think I was saying to you in a podcast episode.

1031
00:57:56,080 --> 00:58:00,200
Speaker 1: It's like, this really is the last thing the world need,

1032
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 1: and hey, they just went and they went ahead and

1033
00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:07,600
Speaker 1: did it anywhere. You know, it's very much it's a

1034
00:58:07,720 --> 00:58:10,760
Speaker 1: very precarious situation. And I mean at the moment as

1035
00:58:10,800 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 1: we record this, Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the U S.

1036
00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:16,920
Speaker 1: House of Representatives, is due to make a visit to Taiwan,

1037
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:20,439
Speaker 1: to Taipei, the capital today, and this is being seen

1038
00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:23,760
Speaker 1: as very very provocative by the Chinese. You know, the

1039
00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 1: Chinese are not happy. Um. And you know, it is

1040
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:31,560
Speaker 1: a potential it is a big potential flash point, and

1041
00:58:31,640 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 1: the effects of that would be huge. You know, even

1042
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:39,120
Speaker 1: if even if it didn't come to a military confrontation,

1043
00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:42,240
Speaker 1: which would obviously be what China would gamble on rather

1044
00:58:42,320 --> 00:58:45,880
Speaker 1: like Putin did, it would still be really bad news

1045
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:50,760
Speaker 1: for the global economy, more sanctions, more disruption. Um. Yeah.

1046
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:56,720
Speaker 1: And it's it's it's interesting because cha Taiwan produces more

1047
00:58:56,720 --> 00:59:00,920
Speaker 1: than six, yeah, of all the semi conductor chips in

1048
00:59:01,000 --> 00:59:04,600
Speaker 1: the world. So an invasion of Taiwan by China would

1049
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:08,840
Speaker 1: be terrible news for Apple, for Apple, for the global

1050
00:59:08,920 --> 00:59:13,000
Speaker 1: electronics industry and um, that would be you know, you

1051
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:15,760
Speaker 1: would really feel that. So that would be that would

1052
00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:18,760
Speaker 1: be a really that would really tank you know that

1053
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:22,120
Speaker 1: the wider economy. And it's interesting because just last week

1054
00:59:22,280 --> 00:59:25,800
Speaker 1: the US that they passed a two d and eight

1055
00:59:26,120 --> 00:59:31,880
Speaker 1: billion dollar bill to boost the US is native semiconductor industry,

1056
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:35,600
Speaker 1: which says to me, they see something on the horizon.

1057
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:37,960
Speaker 1: Well I think, yeah, I just want to protect. Yeah,

1058
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:43,120
Speaker 1: they're mitigating against that, against that possibility. So so they've

1059
00:59:43,120 --> 00:59:46,760
Speaker 1: got their own fuel, their own semiconductors, they're fine. Well, yeah,

1060
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:49,400
Speaker 1: I mean the US is the US is we talk

1061
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:52,160
Speaker 1: about one of the least susceptible countries on the planet.

1062
00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:55,840
Speaker 1: It's geographically and economics. It's a very good point to make, actually,

1063
00:59:55,920 --> 00:59:58,320
Speaker 1: because as I say, we've we've referenced the U s

1064
00:59:58,400 --> 01:00:00,200
Speaker 1: economy a lot, and I talked about it all the

1065
01:00:00,280 --> 01:00:02,960
Speaker 1: time on the Channel because it is important. But you're

1066
01:00:02,960 --> 01:00:08,080
Speaker 1: absolutely right. The US is much more insulated from um,

1067
01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:11,640
Speaker 1: you know, from from these global forces than other countries are.

1068
01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:14,880
Speaker 1: And Europe is good, I mean just geographically, this war

1069
01:00:15,080 --> 01:00:17,120
Speaker 1: is happening, you know, this war in Ukraine is happening

1070
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:22,200
Speaker 1: on Europe's door step. So yeah, I mean, if things

1071
01:00:22,280 --> 01:00:25,600
Speaker 1: seem bad for the future of the US economy. Then

1072
01:00:25,840 --> 01:00:28,040
Speaker 1: spare a thought for other economies as well, and of

1073
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 1: course the US, and we've talked about Europe and we've

1074
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:33,720
Speaker 1: talked about China. I mean, these are these are advanced economies.

1075
01:00:34,200 --> 01:00:37,520
Speaker 1: So the effects on less advanced economy Shri Lanka's, for instance,

1076
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:42,080
Speaker 1: can be catastrophic. And I think yeah, I mean we

1077
01:00:42,200 --> 01:00:44,160
Speaker 1: taught Yeah, we talked about higher Oh no, we're going

1078
01:00:44,200 --> 01:00:46,240
Speaker 1: to have to heat our homes and which is important.

1079
01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:48,280
Speaker 1: And people do lose their lives, you know, because you know,

1080
01:00:48,320 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 1: they can't afford to the choice of eating or or

1081
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:54,479
Speaker 1: heating or eating. Yeah, but then you know, we're also

1082
01:00:54,520 --> 01:00:56,440
Speaker 1: talking about, oh well, people might not be able to

1083
01:00:56,480 --> 01:00:59,600
Speaker 1: afford a new iPhone like that in in parts of

1084
01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:04,120
Speaker 1: Africa and Asia and South America. You know, people people

1085
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:06,160
Speaker 1: could start I mean that is you know, that is

1086
01:01:06,360 --> 01:01:09,320
Speaker 1: a million times. There's horrible stories of people selling their

1087
01:01:09,360 --> 01:01:12,520
Speaker 1: children just to jeez. I mean yeah, yeah, And I

1088
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:14,720
Speaker 1: think it's it's really important to point that out. You know,

1089
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:16,720
Speaker 1: we're we're looking at it from a very sort of

1090
01:01:16,760 --> 01:01:21,200
Speaker 1: coddle developed perspective that the consequences of everything that we've

1091
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 1: talked about could be so much worse, so much more

1092
01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:28,600
Speaker 1: nightmarish for people in less advanced economies. So yeah, it's

1093
01:01:28,680 --> 01:01:30,960
Speaker 1: it's important too. It's important to point that out. You know,

1094
01:01:31,360 --> 01:01:34,520
Speaker 1: we we feel effects and there's are nothing compared to

1095
01:01:34,560 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 1: what other people are going to have to endure. So yeah,

1096
01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:43,920
Speaker 1: so this is another fun podcast or or joy and

1097
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:46,040
Speaker 1: I just want to, yeah, before we talk about what

1098
01:01:46,160 --> 01:01:48,440
Speaker 1: could be next for crypto very quickly before we go.

1099
01:01:48,600 --> 01:01:51,280
Speaker 1: I think this is something I've been thinking about as well,

1100
01:01:51,320 --> 01:01:53,600
Speaker 1: you know, over the last sorry, before we go in there.

1101
01:01:53,720 --> 01:01:59,600
Speaker 1: So with that technological so the semi conductive thing that

1102
01:01:59,840 --> 01:02:03,439
Speaker 1: is obviously a massive deal for crypto as well. Yeah,

1103
01:02:04,080 --> 01:02:08,360
Speaker 1: because obviously crypto has run on computers. Yeah, there is

1104
01:02:08,560 --> 01:02:11,280
Speaker 1: there is that. It's also I think it probably the

1105
01:02:11,360 --> 01:02:15,920
Speaker 1: more immediate effect would be the fact that the tech industry,

1106
01:02:16,000 --> 01:02:19,040
Speaker 1: the wider tech industry and people often see bitcoin as

1107
01:02:19,080 --> 01:02:21,960
Speaker 1: a tech stock almost Yeah. As I said earlier, Bitcoin

1108
01:02:22,040 --> 01:02:24,400
Speaker 1: and and krypto in general is very much tied to

1109
01:02:24,440 --> 01:02:27,000
Speaker 1: tech stocks as well. As tech stocks go up, crypto

1110
01:02:27,120 --> 01:02:29,800
Speaker 1: goes up, and and the opposite and vice versa as well.

1111
01:02:29,960 --> 01:02:35,600
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think the effects of other massive drop

1112
01:02:35,720 --> 01:02:38,160
Speaker 1: in semiconductor supply, which we did see actually, you know,

1113
01:02:38,240 --> 01:02:40,440
Speaker 1: we did have that over the pandemic, and actually, you know,

1114
01:02:40,760 --> 01:02:44,320
Speaker 1: Crypto held up. Crypto obviously flourished in the pandemic and stuff.

1115
01:02:44,360 --> 01:02:47,240
Speaker 1: But I think, yeah, it's certainly that that would be

1116
01:02:47,440 --> 01:02:50,640
Speaker 1: that would be felt across across all sectors. Crypto wouldn't

1117
01:02:50,640 --> 01:02:53,480
Speaker 1: be immune from, you know, from the from the fallout

1118
01:02:53,520 --> 01:02:56,560
Speaker 1: of that. Now it's I think it's really tempting as

1119
01:02:56,600 --> 01:02:59,680
Speaker 1: well to think. I certainly thought over the last couple

1120
01:02:59,720 --> 01:03:02,040
Speaker 1: of year years really it's like you always kind of

1121
01:03:02,080 --> 01:03:04,320
Speaker 1: look ahead. It's like, well, hopefully in a few years time,

1122
01:03:04,360 --> 01:03:06,720
Speaker 1: things will be better. You know, COVID won't be a

1123
01:03:06,800 --> 01:03:09,080
Speaker 1: problem anymore. We'll have got inflation under control, you know,

1124
01:03:09,160 --> 01:03:12,680
Speaker 1: supply chains will be back up and running, and you know,

1125
01:03:12,760 --> 01:03:14,520
Speaker 1: all these problems that we're dealing with at the moment

1126
01:03:14,600 --> 01:03:17,680
Speaker 1: will hopefully be resolved or you know, certainly a lot

1127
01:03:17,800 --> 01:03:20,720
Speaker 1: less like there's light at the end of the tunnel exactly.

1128
01:03:20,960 --> 01:03:23,720
Speaker 1: But but well, you know, it's this sort of thing

1129
01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:25,760
Speaker 1: we always look to this future, you know, these kind

1130
01:03:25,800 --> 01:03:28,640
Speaker 1: of sunlit uplands, as they say, but let's face it,

1131
01:03:28,920 --> 01:03:31,400
Speaker 1: more problems are going to come along. And I think

1132
01:03:31,480 --> 01:03:33,840
Speaker 1: Taiwan is a potential. You know, I'm not saying that

1133
01:03:33,920 --> 01:03:37,080
Speaker 1: Taiwan is necessarily going to be the next global flash

1134
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:40,280
Speaker 1: pipe and just saying there's you know, it's a it's

1135
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:42,720
Speaker 1: a it's a worry. Yeah, it's a red flag, as

1136
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:44,600
Speaker 1: they say, it's a it's a big old red flag.

1137
01:03:44,720 --> 01:03:49,920
Speaker 1: Yeah with with with So yeah, look, you know that

1138
01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:52,680
Speaker 1: that the the outlook for the outlook for the wider

1139
01:03:52,720 --> 01:03:57,360
Speaker 1: global economy is certainly is not great for certainly the

1140
01:03:57,440 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 1: next next few months and probably years. And that's some

1141
01:04:00,040 --> 01:04:04,200
Speaker 1: thing that people should should take into account when making well,

1142
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:06,080
Speaker 1: i mean any sort of decisions really. But you know,

1143
01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:08,720
Speaker 1: especially if you're if you're into crypto and you're thinking

1144
01:04:08,800 --> 01:04:11,640
Speaker 1: of investing, you know, this is the the in fact,

1145
01:04:11,720 --> 01:04:13,720
Speaker 1: what you can afford to lose, absolutely, but you know

1146
01:04:13,840 --> 01:04:15,920
Speaker 1: you need to pay you need to pay attention to

1147
01:04:16,000 --> 01:04:18,320
Speaker 1: the bigger picture. Now, just to touch on what could

1148
01:04:18,360 --> 01:04:21,600
Speaker 1: be next for crypto before we sign off. Now, there

1149
01:04:21,720 --> 01:04:24,240
Speaker 1: is good news because even though we're in a bear market,

1150
01:04:25,320 --> 01:04:29,760
Speaker 1: development is still going ahead, you know, good for happening. Yeah,

1151
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:33,560
Speaker 1: good projects are still you know people some some crypto

1152
01:04:33,600 --> 01:04:36,240
Speaker 1: companies are still hiring, you know, they're still building. And

1153
01:04:36,480 --> 01:04:40,480
Speaker 1: regardless of the wider economic situation, those good projects will

1154
01:04:40,520 --> 01:04:43,160
Speaker 1: continue to develop, and this, you know, this is one

1155
01:04:43,200 --> 01:04:45,160
Speaker 1: of the this is one of the upsides to a

1156
01:04:45,240 --> 01:04:47,240
Speaker 1: bear market if you like, you know, the good projects

1157
01:04:47,360 --> 01:04:50,880
Speaker 1: keep going and there are you know, opportunities out there

1158
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:54,000
Speaker 1: to to invest in these things cheaper than you might

1159
01:04:54,120 --> 01:04:57,640
Speaker 1: have done with the height of the bullmarket. Now, I

1160
01:04:57,800 --> 01:05:01,160
Speaker 1: think in prices are unlikely to recover to levels that

1161
01:05:01,240 --> 01:05:03,080
Speaker 1: we saw in November last year, you know, when we

1162
01:05:03,120 --> 01:05:05,720
Speaker 1: had those all time hands. Um. So the bear market

1163
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:07,480
Speaker 1: is going to continue, and as I say, I think

1164
01:05:07,600 --> 01:05:11,000
Speaker 1: that could be until at the least, So bear that

1165
01:05:11,120 --> 01:05:14,360
Speaker 1: in mind. There's also this headache ahead, like the sec

1166
01:05:14,880 --> 01:05:16,640
Speaker 1: that I talked about, you know, that seems to be

1167
01:05:16,720 --> 01:05:19,840
Speaker 1: coming for crypto with sort of renewed vigor. At the

1168
01:05:19,920 --> 01:05:24,200
Speaker 1: moment um. It's trying to you know, essentially classify most

1169
01:05:24,280 --> 01:05:28,680
Speaker 1: cryptocurrencies as securities if it can. Very few cryptos are

1170
01:05:28,760 --> 01:05:33,480
Speaker 1: exempt in the sec s eyes Bitcoin, because it's a bitcoin,

1171
01:05:33,520 --> 01:05:36,720
Speaker 1: will be okay in that in that Respectum Ethereum probably

1172
01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:40,400
Speaker 1: as well. Um not least because an SEC official in

1173
01:05:40,440 --> 01:05:43,320
Speaker 1: the past has said that Ethereum was sufficiently decentralized and

1174
01:05:43,400 --> 01:05:46,520
Speaker 1: that was several years ago. So I would imagine that

1175
01:05:46,600 --> 01:05:49,840
Speaker 1: BTC and would be safe from the SEC in that respect,

1176
01:05:50,000 --> 01:05:54,560
Speaker 1: but you know, it's there are the wider crypto industry

1177
01:05:54,640 --> 01:05:57,240
Speaker 1: is very much threatened by the SEC. Would that have

1178
01:05:57,320 --> 01:06:02,160
Speaker 1: a knock on effected the tokens built off, Yeah, quite possibly,

1179
01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 1: quite possible because they you know, some of those could

1180
01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:09,280
Speaker 1: be classified as securities. Um So, yeah, there's certainly there's

1181
01:06:09,320 --> 01:06:13,160
Speaker 1: certainly worrier, you know, worry around because the SEC as well,

1182
01:06:13,240 --> 01:06:16,000
Speaker 1: seems to be determined to legislate by by force rather

1183
01:06:16,120 --> 01:06:19,400
Speaker 1: than actually go and clarify things and make things, you know,

1184
01:06:19,560 --> 01:06:22,520
Speaker 1: make it so as these crypto companies can get in line.

1185
01:06:22,960 --> 01:06:25,920
Speaker 1: It just seems to be going after you know, this company,

1186
01:06:26,000 --> 01:06:28,800
Speaker 1: that company labeled this a security, that not a security.

1187
01:06:29,200 --> 01:06:33,000
Speaker 1: There's so little like labels. We don't like labels. Yeah, yeah,

1188
01:06:33,080 --> 01:06:35,680
Speaker 1: it's like this is a security, this is not as security.

1189
01:06:36,000 --> 01:06:38,920
Speaker 1: This I don't know what this is. Um So, it's

1190
01:06:39,000 --> 01:06:41,880
Speaker 1: it's tough because you know, these crypto these companies they

1191
01:06:41,920 --> 01:06:43,440
Speaker 1: want to get into line. You know, they don't they

1192
01:06:43,480 --> 01:06:45,560
Speaker 1: don't want to be on the wrong side of the

1193
01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:49,120
Speaker 1: law necessarily, but the SEC and others make it so difficult.

1194
01:06:49,120 --> 01:06:52,760
Speaker 1: There's so little clarity. So on that note, we are

1195
01:06:52,840 --> 01:06:56,520
Speaker 1: going to see more regulation of the crypto industry across

1196
01:06:56,560 --> 01:06:58,840
Speaker 1: the world. You know, again it's very much focused on

1197
01:06:58,920 --> 01:07:02,120
Speaker 1: the u S, but the the EU is taking steps

1198
01:07:02,120 --> 01:07:07,120
Speaker 1: towards legislator regulating crypto. We're seeing stuff here in the

1199
01:07:07,280 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 1: UK as well, you know, all across the world. India

1200
01:07:10,200 --> 01:07:14,120
Speaker 1: is not proving very pro crypto at the moment, so

1201
01:07:14,600 --> 01:07:17,280
Speaker 1: we are going to see more crypto regulation. Now, this

1202
01:07:17,960 --> 01:07:21,360
Speaker 1: could be a good thing if it's done right, if

1203
01:07:21,400 --> 01:07:25,640
Speaker 1: it's done with a recognition that you know, of of

1204
01:07:26,080 --> 01:07:29,000
Speaker 1: what a powerful technology crypto and blockchain offer. You know,

1205
01:07:29,080 --> 01:07:31,760
Speaker 1: the opportunities, If it allows crypto to flourish within a

1206
01:07:31,840 --> 01:07:36,919
Speaker 1: regulatory framework, that's good, protecting investors, protecting investors. Yeah, if

1207
01:07:37,240 --> 01:07:40,520
Speaker 1: if it could tails innovation exactly, it will be it

1208
01:07:40,560 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 1: will be bad, and that will be something that the

1209
01:07:41,960 --> 01:07:44,560
Speaker 1: crypto market will have to, you know, we'll have to

1210
01:07:44,640 --> 01:07:46,880
Speaker 1: deal with. So that's a potential. You know, there are

1211
01:07:46,920 --> 01:07:54,480
Speaker 1: potential benefits and also drawbacks to this potential regulation. So really, anyone,

1212
01:07:54,880 --> 01:07:57,320
Speaker 1: the only thing I think we can almost certainly be

1213
01:07:57,400 --> 01:08:00,360
Speaker 1: sure of for crypto in the short to media term

1214
01:08:00,640 --> 01:08:05,200
Speaker 1: is more volatility so although we will see I think

1215
01:08:05,560 --> 01:08:08,040
Speaker 1: we will see more rallies ahead. You know, it's not

1216
01:08:08,240 --> 01:08:11,040
Speaker 1: organ it's not going to be strictly down from here,

1217
01:08:11,680 --> 01:08:13,400
Speaker 1: but we're I think we're going to see a lot

1218
01:08:13,440 --> 01:08:15,600
Speaker 1: of these kind of rallies, pumps on good news and

1219
01:08:15,600 --> 01:08:18,280
Speaker 1: all that sort of stuff. But then you know those

1220
01:08:18,320 --> 01:08:19,760
Speaker 1: are going to tail off as well. And I think

1221
01:08:19,800 --> 01:08:23,520
Speaker 1: actually if we look at if we look at prices today,

1222
01:08:24,320 --> 01:08:28,280
Speaker 1: they are yeah, they're down. You know, there's there's a

1223
01:08:28,479 --> 01:08:32,360
Speaker 1: there's a correction. There's a correction going on. So people

1224
01:08:32,439 --> 01:08:35,360
Speaker 1: should be really really wary. And I've said this, you know,

1225
01:08:35,400 --> 01:08:36,920
Speaker 1: I say this to lend Blue in the face. But

1226
01:08:37,040 --> 01:08:39,640
Speaker 1: you know, just because the markets are going up, just

1227
01:08:39,760 --> 01:08:43,439
Speaker 1: because they're pumping, it doesn't mean that everything is good

1228
01:08:43,479 --> 01:08:46,360
Speaker 1: and rosy. Again, these are very very difficult conditions to

1229
01:08:46,439 --> 01:08:49,080
Speaker 1: try and trade in. So you really need to have

1230
01:08:49,360 --> 01:08:52,040
Speaker 1: a long term focus and you have to be prepared

1231
01:08:52,080 --> 01:08:54,320
Speaker 1: that if you are going to invest at this sort

1232
01:08:54,360 --> 01:08:57,439
Speaker 1: of time, you have to be prepared for the value

1233
01:08:57,439 --> 01:09:00,800
Speaker 1: of that investment to go down, certainly in the short term. Um,

1234
01:09:01,600 --> 01:09:03,400
Speaker 1: you know, you have to invest with with an eye

1235
01:09:03,479 --> 01:09:09,000
Speaker 1: on the longer term. If basically Guy's advice is it's

1236
01:09:09,040 --> 01:09:13,320
Speaker 1: not financial advice exactly. Um, okay, So that's just an

1237
01:09:13,360 --> 01:09:16,599
Speaker 1: overview of basically kind of what's going on. A few

1238
01:09:16,640 --> 01:09:19,920
Speaker 1: things to bear in mind. If you're well, if you're

1239
01:09:20,120 --> 01:09:22,719
Speaker 1: if you're interested in crypto, if you're a crypto investor

1240
01:09:22,960 --> 01:09:25,960
Speaker 1: or living in Taiwan, or if you live in Taiwan. Yeah, yeah,

1241
01:09:26,200 --> 01:09:29,880
Speaker 1: I was made in Taiwan. Really, That's what my dad

1242
01:09:29,960 --> 01:09:34,200
Speaker 1: told me. That's they were on around the world trip,

1243
01:09:34,320 --> 01:09:41,479
Speaker 1: honeymoon and and the Twinkle well nine months pre my birthday.

1244
01:09:41,680 --> 01:09:47,080
Speaker 1: They were they were they yeah, okay in Taiwan, in Taiwan.

1245
01:09:47,479 --> 01:09:51,960
Speaker 1: Let's leave it there. Thanks for listening everyone, See see

1246
01:09:52,000 --> 01:09:54,479
Speaker 1: you next time. Thank you so much for listening to

1247
01:09:54,720 --> 01:09:57,000
Speaker 1: the coin Bureau podcast. If you'd like to learn more

1248
01:09:57,040 --> 01:10:00,959
Speaker 1: about cryptocurrency, you can visit our YouTube channel at YouTube

1249
01:10:01,000 --> 01:10:03,760
Speaker 1: dot com forward slash coin Bureau. You can also go

1250
01:10:03,880 --> 01:10:06,639
Speaker 1: to coin bureau dot com for loads more information about

1251
01:10:06,680 --> 01:10:09,559
Speaker 1: all things crypto. You can follow me on Twitter at

1252
01:10:09,640 --> 01:10:12,000
Speaker 1: coin Brea or one word, and I'm also active on

1253
01:10:12,120 --> 01:10:15,439
Speaker 1: TikTok and Instagram as well. First of all, it's not

1254
01:10:15,760 --> 01:10:19,760
Speaker 1: thank you for listening, You're welcome for great content. Yeah,

1255
01:10:20,240 --> 01:10:23,639
Speaker 1: like this is free, and they're learning about a fairly

1256
01:10:23,760 --> 01:10:27,120
Speaker 1: great topic in a non boring way. If you'd like

1257
01:10:27,200 --> 01:10:29,960
Speaker 1: to visit me and hear more about me, go to

1258
01:10:30,080 --> 01:10:32,920
Speaker 1: Mooch About m O O C H A, b O

1259
01:10:33,200 --> 01:10:46,400
Speaker 1: U T or else. For more podcasts from I heart Radio,

1260
01:10:46,720 --> 01:10:50,240
Speaker 1: visit the i heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever

1261
01:10:50,479 --> 01:11:00,800
Speaker 1: we get your podcasts. The coin Brea podcast is a

1262
01:11:00,840 --> 01:11:02,599
Speaker 1: production of I heart Radio.