WEBVTT - Even Our Economy Is Gamified Now 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:29.564 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:29.604 --> 0:00:32.164 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:31.924 --> 0:00:35.124 And I'm Nate Silver. Earlier this week, you've heard us 0:00:35.164 --> 0:00:38.524 talk about hopefully you're listening every episode, Yes, right, listeners. 0:00:38.644 --> 0:00:40.644 If not, what are you doing with your life? 0:00:41.164 --> 0:00:42.724 What are you doing with you You heard us talk 0:00:42.724 --> 0:00:45.444 about Las Vegas and the kind of literal casino economy. 0:00:45.444 --> 0:00:48.524 We want to be a little bit more figurative about 0:00:48.564 --> 0:00:53.444 that today, the casinofication of the American economy of frankly, 0:00:53.524 --> 0:00:55.124 everyday life in lots of ways. 0:00:55.404 --> 0:00:59.284 Yeah. So there was an op ed in The New 0:00:59.364 --> 0:01:04.004 York Times on October twenty sixth from Kyla Scanlon that 0:01:04.404 --> 0:01:08.924 talked about kind of this casino economy and what does 0:01:08.964 --> 0:01:12.964 she mean by that? We have gamification of almost I 0:01:13.044 --> 0:01:15.924 mean gamification has been something we've talked about before, but 0:01:16.404 --> 0:01:23.004 casinoification specifically is that we are fueling speculation, we're fueling 0:01:23.324 --> 0:01:26.684 risk taking, and we're kind of placing bets on a 0:01:26.724 --> 0:01:29.644 lot of things, and you know, we're betting that this 0:01:29.804 --> 0:01:32.364 all works out well for the US. Except instead of 0:01:32.404 --> 0:01:35.164 gambling with your own money, you're gambling with the United States, 0:01:35.244 --> 0:01:38.164 with US currency, with the way that the US is 0:01:38.204 --> 0:01:42.004 perceived abroad with you know, how our economy is going 0:01:42.044 --> 0:01:46.804 to do, and we're you know, you're seeing the government 0:01:46.844 --> 0:01:50.084 placing these big bets and we don't actually know, Nate, 0:01:50.124 --> 0:01:52.484 whether they're smart gamblers or not, right, We don't know 0:01:52.924 --> 0:01:57.084 what went into that, whether they are people who are 0:01:57.124 --> 0:01:59.364 like advantage players where like, oh, you know, there are 0:01:59.764 --> 0:02:02.964 some edges here that we can exploit, or whether they're 0:02:03.004 --> 0:02:05.484 just djens who are like I like to take risk 0:02:05.524 --> 0:02:07.364 and I hope it works out. I'm betting it all 0:02:07.404 --> 0:02:12.124 on black Come on, baby, US go service. I was. 0:02:12.444 --> 0:02:16.364 I was checking my invidias dot and my Bitcoin and 0:02:16.964 --> 0:02:19.604 the DraftKings bets I have for the midday night game. 0:02:19.804 --> 0:02:23.004 And yeah, yeah, that's at a little distracted by by 0:02:23.044 --> 0:02:25.124 all these you know, on the poly market price. You 0:02:25.204 --> 0:02:28.524 can't see a bdega without seeing a count sheep or 0:02:28.564 --> 0:02:32.004 poly market billboard in the New York City area anymore. So, 0:02:32.124 --> 0:02:34.524 this is all around us. I enjoy some of it, 0:02:34.564 --> 0:02:36.564 in profit from some of it, but like, I can 0:02:36.604 --> 0:02:42.204 imagine how it becomes overwhelming to a more normy American. 0:02:42.604 --> 0:02:45.004 Oh, absolutely, And I think that there are two different 0:02:45.004 --> 0:02:48.644 spheres here, right, there's the like rise of prediction markets, 0:02:48.644 --> 0:02:51.404 the fact that Trump himself is getting into the prediction 0:02:51.524 --> 0:02:54.004 market business, you know, crypto, and the fact that Trump 0:02:54.084 --> 0:02:57.604 himself got into crypto, like the actual gamifications. But then 0:02:57.724 --> 0:03:00.804 there are also things like we're going to you know, 0:03:00.884 --> 0:03:04.484 have the government invest in like invest in Nvidia and 0:03:04.564 --> 0:03:08.004 do all these different things. Try to play a game 0:03:08.044 --> 0:03:10.804 of chicken with tariffs to see like who's going to 0:03:10.804 --> 0:03:13.324 blink first? Right, who's going to swerve first? Are we 0:03:13.404 --> 0:03:15.564 going to end up in a trade war? Are we 0:03:15.644 --> 0:03:19.044 going to end up with better concessions for the United States. 0:03:19.124 --> 0:03:22.924 We're seeing it at every single level of society, and 0:03:23.004 --> 0:03:25.884 I think that higher level is people are focused on 0:03:25.924 --> 0:03:28.244 the lower level. They're like, oh, you know, you know 0:03:28.364 --> 0:03:31.564 Calshian prediction markets, and they're getting into like sports betting 0:03:31.644 --> 0:03:34.644 and all this stuff. This is terrible, but maybe they 0:03:34.644 --> 0:03:37.564 should actually be looking more at that higher level, which 0:03:37.604 --> 0:03:41.404 is saying, well, okay, but we're also you know, pouring 0:03:41.564 --> 0:03:47.364 us government money into meme coins, and we're also trying 0:03:47.404 --> 0:03:51.724 to see like can we levy one hundred percent tariffs 0:03:51.884 --> 0:03:54.844 on some countries and have them still want to do 0:03:54.964 --> 0:03:59.164 business with us? Like what can I get away with basically, 0:03:59.564 --> 0:04:02.444 and so that that might be even though it's harder 0:04:02.484 --> 0:04:05.324 to pinpoint and it's harder to make a nice headline 0:04:05.364 --> 0:04:08.484 about that, those might be some of the more worrisome 0:04:08.844 --> 0:04:09.404 elements of. 0:04:10.364 --> 0:04:12.124 Yeah, and look, in some ways, I'd like to see 0:04:12.164 --> 0:04:15.684 the American government be a little bit more market driven 0:04:15.764 --> 0:04:17.524 in some things. I mean, the government isn't paying a 0:04:17.564 --> 0:04:19.924 lot of people in market rate salaries. That's a big problem. 0:04:19.964 --> 0:04:23.804 And like, you know, there were debates years ago about 0:04:23.804 --> 0:04:28.084 like should Americans be allowed to invest their social Security savings. 0:04:28.724 --> 0:04:31.364 I'm not sure that they shouldn't. It's probably not a 0:04:31.364 --> 0:04:34.484 popular position among progressives, right, But like, but you also 0:04:34.484 --> 0:04:38.884 face things like if all these risks become correlated, right 0:04:39.004 --> 0:04:43.044 then in the United States, felt then social scurityholders would 0:04:43.084 --> 0:04:45.804 bear more geopolitical risk. I mean, look, I mean there 0:04:45.804 --> 0:04:49.644 are a few dimensions, right. One is like exhaustion of 0:04:49.844 --> 0:04:54.244 like you feel like every decision that you make you're 0:04:54.284 --> 0:04:58.564 battling some algorithm or there's some way to optimize. And 0:04:58.604 --> 0:05:01.844 I guess if you're have high agency and our experience 0:05:01.964 --> 0:05:04.404 and have money and don't have to worry about as 0:05:04.484 --> 0:05:07.604 much of this stuff, right, then maybe it leads to opportunities, 0:05:07.604 --> 0:05:10.004 but where it feels like everything is game of everything 0:05:10.164 --> 0:05:15.484 is complicated, right, I mean we haven't had Natlsha Shull 0:05:15.604 --> 0:05:19.284 on the show. She's an anthropologist who wrote Addiction by Design, 0:05:19.284 --> 0:05:20.684 which is about similar. 0:05:20.764 --> 0:05:21.644 Really interesting book. 0:05:22.324 --> 0:05:25.564 Yeah, between literally slot machine design and like social media 0:05:25.564 --> 0:05:34.284 apps continue with scroll the complete absorption that you're in constantly, right, yeah, can. 0:05:34.164 --> 0:05:36.044 I want to take a step back with that because 0:05:36.044 --> 0:05:39.924 this is some of the most fundamental work in twentieth 0:05:39.924 --> 0:05:42.844 century psychology, and I just want to give people a 0:05:42.884 --> 0:05:45.364 little bit of a refresher if it's been like a 0:05:45.364 --> 0:05:49.164 little while since they're psych one oh one. Everyone kind 0:05:49.204 --> 0:05:53.244 of has heard about Pavlov's dogs, Right. If I bring 0:05:53.844 --> 0:05:57.084 food to a dog and it gets used to kind 0:05:57.084 --> 0:05:59.244 of the food, it salivates because it knows it's about 0:05:59.284 --> 0:06:02.124 to eat, right, And if you ring a bell every 0:06:02.164 --> 0:06:05.844 time before you bring the food, now the dog learns 0:06:05.844 --> 0:06:08.884 to associate the bell with the food. Now we take 0:06:08.924 --> 0:06:11.724 away the food food, and the dog hears a bell 0:06:12.084 --> 0:06:17.164 and the dog salavates. That's called associated learning. Now, what 0:06:17.244 --> 0:06:20.564 Pavla found was then you can extinguish it. Right if 0:06:20.644 --> 0:06:23.604 after a while you keep bringing the bell and no 0:06:23.684 --> 0:06:28.244 food comes, Eventually the response will be extinguished and the 0:06:28.284 --> 0:06:32.044 dog will stop salivating. Now fast forward to be of Skinner, 0:06:32.524 --> 0:06:35.764 who kind of took behaviorism to the next level and 0:06:36.324 --> 0:06:42.164 realized that basically the single best way to get rats, 0:06:42.564 --> 0:06:46.404 guinea pigs, humans to do what you want them to 0:06:46.444 --> 0:06:49.964 do is not just through reinforcement learning, which is, you know, 0:06:50.004 --> 0:06:52.764 you reinforce a behavior that you want with something positive, 0:06:53.084 --> 0:06:59.564 but through a cycle of intermittent reinforcement. So regular reinforcement learning, 0:06:59.884 --> 0:07:01.764 you press a button and you get a pellet, or 0:07:01.804 --> 0:07:03.524 you get a coin that you can use for a 0:07:03.564 --> 0:07:06.204 slot machine or whatever. It is, like, I don't know 0:07:06.204 --> 0:07:08.284 if we're talking about a human or a guinea pig, 0:07:08.644 --> 0:07:11.084 but if sometimes when you press the button you get 0:07:11.084 --> 0:07:14.924 a pellet, sometimes you don't, Sometimes you get two pellets, 0:07:14.964 --> 0:07:17.044 you know, sometimes you don't. Then all of a sudden, 0:07:17.204 --> 0:07:19.044 there is nothing you can do to get that rat 0:07:19.084 --> 0:07:21.604 to step away from pressing the button. If that pellet 0:07:21.644 --> 0:07:24.884 is compelling enough, it will just keep pressing because that 0:07:25.044 --> 0:07:31.124 intermittent cycle of reinforcement is something that is just inherently appealing. Right, 0:07:31.204 --> 0:07:34.644 It's that gamble, Right, Oh, maybe I won't get anything, 0:07:34.684 --> 0:07:36.284 but maybe I'll get a lot, and maybe I'll get 0:07:36.284 --> 0:07:38.604 more than I ever got before. Maybe I'll get like 0:07:38.684 --> 0:07:43.924 an extra sweet, amazing treat. And that is how animals 0:07:43.964 --> 0:07:47.604 including humans learn the best, but also how they start 0:07:47.804 --> 0:07:51.044 engaging in compulsive behaviors. And all of a sudden, you 0:07:51.204 --> 0:07:54.604 see you know, rats, guinea pigs, humans who are just 0:07:54.684 --> 0:07:57.724 pressing that pressing that button over and over. So now 0:07:57.844 --> 0:08:02.284 we're seeing how powerful that psychology is and what happens 0:08:02.324 --> 0:08:04.324 when you take the guardrails off of it, and when 0:08:04.324 --> 0:08:07.564 you start seeing the US government engaging in that sort 0:08:07.564 --> 0:08:08.084 of behavior. 0:08:08.324 --> 0:08:10.684 I mean, look at slot machines, like, there are a 0:08:10.684 --> 0:08:12.404 couple of things you can learn from st machines in 0:08:12.484 --> 0:08:14.924 terms of reinforcing behavior that can be compulsive. 0:08:15.124 --> 0:08:15.324 Right. 0:08:16.684 --> 0:08:22.004 Number one is this combination of small and big rewards. Right, 0:08:22.044 --> 0:08:24.764 if you play a slot, then you spend for five 0:08:24.844 --> 0:08:27.924 dollars and no, there's a churn, ch changing, and you 0:08:27.964 --> 0:08:30.364 win three dollars back, right, or ten dollars back or 0:08:30.404 --> 0:08:33.444 two dollars back or something right, And then you have 0:08:33.524 --> 0:08:36.884 the occasional big jackpot where it attendant comes and pays 0:08:36.924 --> 0:08:39.004 you and it creates a big scene. 0:08:39.084 --> 0:08:39.324 Right. 0:08:40.244 --> 0:08:43.884 That combination seems to be pretty powerful, right, But The 0:08:43.924 --> 0:08:47.644 other thing these machines do. They have complicated game modes 0:08:47.684 --> 0:08:49.404 where you feel like you almost win, like, oh, if 0:08:49.404 --> 0:08:54.004 you get five reels all turned in the same direction right, 0:08:54.044 --> 0:08:57.324 then you trigger some bonus mode in a buffalo stampede 0:08:57.404 --> 0:08:59.084 or a wolf howl or whatever else. They all have 0:08:59.124 --> 0:09:01.604 like animal themes or the prices right or weel afford it. 0:09:01.724 --> 0:09:03.884 I see the buffalo one everywhere, so I'm assuming that's 0:09:03.924 --> 0:09:06.524 a high margin one for casinos. I have no idea. 0:09:07.004 --> 0:09:09.804 I know that different machines have different you know, different 0:09:09.964 --> 0:09:13.084 value for casinos, but the buffalo ones everywhere please continue. 0:09:13.484 --> 0:09:16.244 But yeah, you feel like, oh, man, if I just 0:09:16.284 --> 0:09:18.284 got this one more real to turn, I would trigger 0:09:18.324 --> 0:09:21.164 stampede mode and make lots of money. And so they 0:09:21.204 --> 0:09:24.204 show you. You're kind of like they dramatize your near 0:09:24.444 --> 0:09:26.844 misses if you're like, oh, I came so close last 0:09:26.884 --> 0:09:30.524 time that like, how could I give up on this case? Yeah, 0:09:30.604 --> 0:09:32.204 all these when you and by the way, you don't 0:09:32.244 --> 0:09:37.604 know the payouts for slot machines are not posted anywhere 0:09:38.244 --> 0:09:40.524 easily viewable by anybody. Right. 0:09:40.844 --> 0:09:43.684 By the way, a really good illustration of this without 0:09:43.684 --> 0:09:46.924 getting into kind of the innards of a slot machine 0:09:47.084 --> 0:09:50.844 is if you've ever kind of seen a game show, 0:09:50.884 --> 0:09:53.564 which I'm sure everyone has, where they spin the wheel, right, 0:09:53.644 --> 0:09:57.204 and there's always like the huge prize is always in 0:09:57.244 --> 0:10:02.564 between like tiny prizes. Yeah, exactly, and you see kind 0:10:02.604 --> 0:10:05.524 of that drama of like the needle almost going to 0:10:05.564 --> 0:10:08.364 the huge prize and then not, and it almost never doesn't. 0:10:08.404 --> 0:10:10.444 I don't know, Like I assume that it's not rigged, 0:10:10.684 --> 0:10:13.244 but if you ever do that at a carnival, don't, 0:10:13.484 --> 0:10:15.044 by the way, because then it is rigged. 0:10:15.204 --> 0:10:18.004 Yeah. I don't know what the regulations are on like 0:10:19.404 --> 0:10:22.604 onslop mission, but like in general, the reporting different. A 0:10:22.644 --> 0:10:26.604 book suggest that like the computer within milliseconds microseconds determines 0:10:26.644 --> 0:10:28.524 what the payout is, it's according to a fix schedule, 0:10:28.764 --> 0:10:30.684 and if you don't abide by that schedule, then you 0:10:30.924 --> 0:10:33.804 get in a great deal of trouble with the gaming board, right. 0:10:34.244 --> 0:10:36.604 I don't think they're regularly as much how they represent 0:10:36.724 --> 0:10:39.444 that outcome to you and so like, so you are 0:10:39.444 --> 0:10:41.884 manipulating people not only with the payout schedule, which has 0:10:41.924 --> 0:10:45.724 been optimized by MT engineers to figure out what gets 0:10:45.764 --> 0:10:50.084 people to be most compulsive, right, but also the way 0:10:50.324 --> 0:10:54.644 in which a given result is shown can also contribute 0:10:54.644 --> 0:10:58.964 to anxiety. Excitement, yes, the feeling of just having missed 0:10:58.964 --> 0:11:01.364 out on an amazing, life changing jackpot. 0:11:01.564 --> 0:11:05.404 The visual is so important. The visual is so important. 0:11:05.404 --> 0:11:07.324 That's why I gave the example of the game show 0:11:07.404 --> 0:11:09.724 right where you spin the wheel, because when you see 0:11:09.764 --> 0:11:12.204 like cherry, cherry cherry, and then like it's almost a 0:11:12.324 --> 0:11:14.804 cherry and that it just like misses by a half, right, 0:11:15.244 --> 0:11:17.284 and you're like, oh damn. 0:11:17.244 --> 0:11:19.044 Now there's something that's moving from the analog to the 0:11:19.284 --> 0:11:22.084 so like a lot of uh, most of the tennis 0:11:22.124 --> 0:11:27.364 tournaments now now use electronic eye judges, line judges. Right, 0:11:28.404 --> 0:11:31.604 So go to the US that's good, right, Well, it 0:11:31.644 --> 0:11:33.364 depends on how accurate. But you'll go to the US 0:11:33.404 --> 0:11:36.844 Open and Hawkeye I think it's called, will show one 0:11:36.844 --> 0:11:39.004 of the ball is in or out right, and then 0:11:39.564 --> 0:11:43.204 they'll show the replay and the replay is computer generated. 0:11:43.204 --> 0:11:45.164 I'm like, that's not a fucking replay, right, it's not. 0:11:45.204 --> 0:11:47.564 Actually you can't verify when the computer was right or wrong, 0:11:47.564 --> 0:11:50.204 and it's very close called by showing the computer's input. 0:11:50.324 --> 0:11:52.764 No, that's that's actually it's really annoying. Yep. 0:11:52.924 --> 0:11:54.724 But like feeling like you never kind of were able 0:11:54.764 --> 0:11:57.724 to like touch grass and get something real. I think 0:11:57.804 --> 0:11:59.724 is a feeling that's a little bit a little bit 0:11:59.964 --> 0:12:04.004 frustrated too, for sure, something that's and I guess people 0:12:04.004 --> 0:12:06.884 are verifiable are used to that. I mean us kind 0:12:06.884 --> 0:12:09.564 of gets into the seging we taped earlier and we 0:12:09.564 --> 0:12:12.604 had earlier this week about like the feeling of constantly 0:12:12.684 --> 0:12:17.324 being manipulated by the algorithm. You know, there has been, 0:12:17.364 --> 0:12:23.164 for example, a big increase in like fast food revenues 0:12:23.284 --> 0:12:26.764 per order per customer in recent years. And part of 0:12:26.764 --> 0:12:28.764 this is that, like part of this is at like 0:12:30.324 --> 0:12:33.924 now people are ordering on kiosks most of the time, 0:12:33.964 --> 0:12:39.404 even at physical locations. So number one, number one, you 0:12:39.564 --> 0:12:43.684 were just stopping costs, right, Number two people you have 0:12:43.724 --> 0:12:45.804 all types of up cells. Oh here's an extra sex 0:12:45.844 --> 0:12:47.964 you can add for just forty nine cents. Right, I'm 0:12:47.964 --> 0:12:50.524 sure the margin is very high or whatever, and like 0:12:50.604 --> 0:12:53.084 and like just that constant fatigue from being you know, 0:12:53.164 --> 0:12:55.964 sometimes my little my partners, you're like, which you got 0:12:55.964 --> 0:12:58.444 like a simple restaurant, Yeah, tonight one of these it's 0:12:58.484 --> 0:13:01.084 like not corporate own. It's like, well it's actually this 0:13:01.124 --> 0:13:02.404 other place was like, yeah, I just don't want all 0:13:02.404 --> 0:13:05.644 the fucking option. I want to b plus plain of 0:13:05.684 --> 0:13:09.004 spaghetti without any fuss and without feeling like everything is 0:13:09.044 --> 0:13:10.604 being golden dying for me. 0:13:10.804 --> 0:13:14.924 You know, yeah, no, absolutely, And it's psychologically speaking, you know, 0:13:15.124 --> 0:13:17.684 once again we've were talking about kind of thin lines 0:13:17.724 --> 0:13:21.404 between a frustrating experience and one that actually works in 0:13:21.524 --> 0:13:25.004 terms of nudging the consumer to the type of behavior 0:13:25.004 --> 0:13:27.124 that you want. So, yeah, when you're at a Kidoska 0:13:27.124 --> 0:13:28.764 and you're like, oh, like, do you are you sure 0:13:28.804 --> 0:13:31.044 you don't want to, like, for fifty cents upgrade this 0:13:31.124 --> 0:13:34.364 to like an extra large right, which would normally cost 0:13:34.444 --> 0:13:36.764 this much more, but you get kind of you get 0:13:36.764 --> 0:13:40.804 an extra deal, and it's so interesting. So I flew 0:13:40.844 --> 0:13:45.724 to Vegas this past weekend and took a lift from 0:13:45.764 --> 0:13:50.244 the airport and got my little statement, you know, the 0:13:50.284 --> 0:13:54.284 little email that they send you and something I think 0:13:54.324 --> 0:13:57.164 my lift was, I don't remember, twenty five dollars something 0:13:57.204 --> 0:13:59.804 like that. And then I see the statement and it's 0:13:59.884 --> 0:14:04.844 like forty eight dollars plus a thirty percent discount for 0:14:05.004 --> 0:14:07.924 this and this and this, so that and so twenty 0:14:08.004 --> 0:14:10.444 five dollars. So they present the exact same amount in 0:14:10.564 --> 0:14:13.044 very different ways and all of a sudden, you're like, oh, 0:14:13.124 --> 0:14:13.804 I got a deal. 0:14:13.924 --> 0:14:14.844 It was supposed to. 0:14:14.764 --> 0:14:17.284 Be forty eight dollars, but really I got it for 0:14:17.364 --> 0:14:20.004 twenty five dollars. It wasn't supposed to be forty eight dollars. 0:14:20.044 --> 0:14:21.804 They just make that shit up so that you don't 0:14:21.844 --> 0:14:25.284 feel like you're being taken advantage of. And but that 0:14:25.404 --> 0:14:28.364 works with fast food, that works with everything door dash. 0:14:28.444 --> 0:14:31.164 So when you know, I order from delivery apps and 0:14:31.204 --> 0:14:32.844 you get that sort of thing all the way all 0:14:32.884 --> 0:14:34.844 the time where you're like, oh, get a credit, like 0:14:35.684 --> 0:14:37.244 do you want to double dash? Do you want to 0:14:37.284 --> 0:14:40.644 add this from another store while you know with no 0:14:40.724 --> 0:14:43.284 delivery fee? Right? Do you want some ice cream? You 0:14:43.404 --> 0:14:46.484 ordered Italian and this will pair well from Gelato, no 0:14:46.644 --> 0:14:49.364 extra delivery fee. Your dasher can stop buy and get Gelato. 0:14:49.404 --> 0:14:51.564 I wasn't planning to get Gelatto, but uh, you know, 0:14:51.604 --> 0:14:53.364 it does seem like a great deal because I don't 0:14:53.404 --> 0:14:55.444 have to pay two delivery fees. Maybe I will get 0:14:55.484 --> 0:14:58.924 Gelatto after all. Right, that kind of so the way 0:14:58.964 --> 0:15:01.164 that you present it can actually turn it from something 0:15:01.204 --> 0:15:05.684 that's either annoying or really cool. And there are when 0:15:05.684 --> 0:15:08.404 it comes to consumers, When it comes to advertising. They 0:15:08.404 --> 0:15:10.844 are very strict regulartions on this, but that's not true 0:15:11.004 --> 0:15:14.524 across every industry, and that's certainly not true when it 0:15:14.524 --> 0:15:16.684 comes to kind of the US government because it's the 0:15:16.684 --> 0:15:19.804 one that's supposed to be regulating. So there are few 0:15:19.804 --> 0:15:22.484 things other than the Constitution that regulate what it can 0:15:22.524 --> 0:15:26.604 do when it comes to kind of gamifying different experiences. 0:15:26.164 --> 0:15:27.644 And now and then you can like actually get an 0:15:27.684 --> 0:15:31.604 offer that's like actually pretty good. These typically happen in 0:15:31.684 --> 0:15:34.044 times and places when the environment can be a little 0:15:34.044 --> 0:15:37.884 bit recessionary, right, Like, so, Maria, I am going to 0:15:37.924 --> 0:15:40.244 be out with you playing the napt in Vegas this week. 0:15:40.364 --> 0:15:43.444 There's also various poker tournaments in December. It's a good 0:15:43.484 --> 0:15:47.564 month for poker. The World Chairs of Poker is offering 0:15:48.444 --> 0:15:52.644 a twenty five thousand dollars bonus if you were eligible 0:15:52.764 --> 0:15:54.924 because you cash the main event or had enough cashes 0:15:54.924 --> 0:15:56.804 in the summer World Chairs of Poker and the s 0:15:56.804 --> 0:15:59.364 Bahamas event they have right if you catch their main event. 0:15:59.364 --> 0:16:02.044 There By the way, the main event in the Bahamas 0:16:02.084 --> 0:16:04.324 is twenty five thousand dollars, so it's. 0:16:04.164 --> 0:16:08.004 A serious event. However, if you cash, you basically get 0:16:08.044 --> 0:16:12.204 your buy in back for free and like fifteen percent, 0:16:12.244 --> 0:16:15.084 twenty five thousand maybe premium, you know, a fe little 0:16:15.124 --> 0:16:17.644 bit for a skilled premium if I'm being generous with myself, right, 0:16:17.844 --> 0:16:20.244 Like that's actually worth real money, you know. But the 0:16:20.284 --> 0:16:26.204 reason why is because like they're trying to get people 0:16:26.244 --> 0:16:28.524 there and out compete these other tournaments. They actually are, 0:16:28.644 --> 0:16:33.124 they're actually really spending real marketing budget. And you, if 0:16:33.164 --> 0:16:34.964 you want to participate in that, have the optimist consumer 0:16:35.004 --> 0:16:39.124 to benefit from that. Right, That's usually not true. Usually 0:16:39.124 --> 0:16:43.004 you're being squeezed on the margin and every nickel that 0:16:43.044 --> 0:16:45.164 you think you save is coming out of your pocket 0:16:45.484 --> 0:16:47.244 at some other point in time. I mean you see 0:16:47.244 --> 0:16:50.164 it in politics too, or like for years Democrats in 0:16:50.204 --> 0:16:52.764 particular would send all these emails Nancy Pelosi says it's 0:16:52.844 --> 0:16:56.684 urgent and us contribute today this fucking fund, right and 0:16:56.764 --> 0:16:59.484 like and people get fed up with that, and like, 0:16:59.524 --> 0:17:03.004 we have this problem in myopia. When of you design algorithms, 0:17:03.004 --> 0:17:07.364 we're like, an algorithm can often tell you what, given 0:17:07.484 --> 0:17:11.804 current conditions in the short term, will maximize revenues. 0:17:11.964 --> 0:17:12.164 Right. 0:17:12.724 --> 0:17:18.004 They do not adjust enough for consumer fatigue, They do 0:17:18.084 --> 0:17:21.484 not just enough for like the long term balance sheet 0:17:22.084 --> 0:17:24.884 of the consumer. Right, they do not just enough. For 0:17:25.004 --> 0:17:28.084 like with political messages, a message that was once fresh 0:17:28.124 --> 0:17:32.844 can become stale. Right, being the fourth or fifth iteration 0:17:32.964 --> 0:17:35.084 of Obama is not the same as the first version 0:17:35.564 --> 0:17:41.004 of Obama or whatever else. Right, And yeah, I think 0:17:41.044 --> 0:17:43.044 I'm talking to guys just who like makes films, Like, yeah, 0:17:43.044 --> 0:17:45.204 I don't use this algorithm shit for like making picking 0:17:45.244 --> 0:17:47.604 films at all, Right, we just make films that are 0:17:47.644 --> 0:17:52.644 derivative and and and a lot of algorithms they become 0:17:52.724 --> 0:17:57.044 inferior out of sample. And like also, you know, with 0:17:57.044 --> 0:18:02.444 with AI, I mean I assume within could happen now, right, 0:18:02.804 --> 0:18:05.164 I assume that with some of the services, you'll say, okay, 0:18:05.204 --> 0:18:07.684 here's you know, here's an ad from the gap or whatever, right, 0:18:07.844 --> 0:18:11.044 And here's how you would look in this nice new 0:18:11.284 --> 0:18:12.404 T shirt from the Gap. 0:18:12.484 --> 0:18:12.604 Right. 0:18:12.644 --> 0:18:15.324 Maybe it's probably a little flattering to your dimensions and 0:18:15.364 --> 0:18:18.204 whatever else. But like people are gonna begin to feel 0:18:18.244 --> 0:18:22.124 correctly very manipulated, and that makes lead to like, you know, 0:18:22.324 --> 0:18:26.044 I mean, even with Trump, right, I would argue there 0:18:26.204 --> 0:18:31.164 is some degree a boy who cried wolf syndrome with Trump, 0:18:31.164 --> 0:18:33.204 where like everything is seen as an outrage and therefore 0:18:33.204 --> 0:18:35.324 the things that actually are outrages, which there are many 0:18:35.364 --> 0:18:39.964 outrages in my opinion as the American citizen, Right, people 0:18:40.044 --> 0:18:42.684 are just so fucking sick of the message and they 0:18:43.044 --> 0:18:45.244 and they tune out and they lose their serotonin response 0:18:45.284 --> 0:18:48.364 and whatever else, right, And yeah, it's pretty pretty bad. 0:18:52.044 --> 0:18:53.444 And we'll be back right after this. 0:19:08.324 --> 0:19:11.284 Do you have any tips for help people navigate the stuff, Maria. 0:19:11.884 --> 0:19:19.284 Oh Man, Yeah, well, you know, try to uh oh, 0:19:19.644 --> 0:19:21.204 try to get out of it a little bit. Like 0:19:21.284 --> 0:19:24.524 people need to like just take a step back and 0:19:24.844 --> 0:19:27.164 try to reclaim We haven't talked about this at all 0:19:27.204 --> 0:19:31.164 on the episode, but like reclaim some semblance of their attention, right, 0:19:31.164 --> 0:19:33.924 like get off social media, stop like reacting to things 0:19:34.244 --> 0:19:36.524 all the time, and try to like just try to 0:19:37.484 --> 0:19:40.084 I know, I know, and just try to take a 0:19:40.124 --> 0:19:42.964 step back and get some perspective. What I try to 0:19:43.004 --> 0:19:46.044 help people through their decision making and they're about to 0:19:46.084 --> 0:19:48.204 make kind of a big purchase, a big decision or whatever. 0:19:48.244 --> 0:19:50.724 It is something I often do, as I say, okay, 0:19:50.884 --> 0:19:55.004 before you look at anything, before you buy anything, before 0:19:55.084 --> 0:19:57.524 you kind of do anything like that, why don't you 0:19:57.564 --> 0:20:00.724 take a pen and paper and write down, like what 0:20:00.764 --> 0:20:03.204 are the most important things to you, right, Like what 0:20:03.244 --> 0:20:07.244 are you looking for? What is in this particular decision, 0:20:07.324 --> 0:20:09.604 Like what are you optimizing for? What do you care 0:20:09.604 --> 0:20:11.844 a little bit less about how much are you willing 0:20:11.924 --> 0:20:15.404 to kind of spend and give yourself kind of answer 0:20:15.484 --> 0:20:18.364 those questions and give yourself firm limits, because then you 0:20:18.804 --> 0:20:23.164 think a little bit less susceptible to those nudges that 0:20:23.244 --> 0:20:26.964 happen to behavior in the moment, because in the moment, 0:20:27.004 --> 0:20:30.364 it's really hard to make good decisions, especially if you're tired. Right, 0:20:30.404 --> 0:20:33.764 this is like poker, This is like trying to play 0:20:33.804 --> 0:20:36.724 well at the poker table. Think through all of these 0:20:36.724 --> 0:20:39.564 scenarios ahead of time, because in the moment when it 0:20:39.604 --> 0:20:41.764 comes up, if you haven't thought through, you're going to 0:20:41.804 --> 0:20:44.364 tilt and you're going to make a poor decision because 0:20:44.524 --> 0:20:46.964 you don't actually know how to react in the moment. 0:20:47.324 --> 0:20:49.444 And so I think taking that time and taking those 0:20:49.444 --> 0:20:53.324 steps back can be really really important for just solid 0:20:53.364 --> 0:20:56.964 decision making, especially as we acknowledge that our attention is 0:20:57.004 --> 0:20:59.124 limited and we are getting tired. 0:21:00.044 --> 0:21:04.724 The other thing I'd add is that like people make 0:21:04.764 --> 0:21:08.844 this mistake of spending the most time on the most 0:21:08.884 --> 0:21:12.084 marginalis instead of the most place takes decisions right where 0:21:12.084 --> 0:21:17.724 it's like, okay, I can optimize this or that by 0:21:17.764 --> 0:21:20.684 picking the six different versions of uber or lyft take 0:21:20.724 --> 0:21:22.324 me to the airport, right, and one's a little bit 0:21:22.324 --> 0:21:24.284 more expensive, and once they're a little sooner, it's like, 0:21:24.804 --> 0:21:28.164 if it's like reasonably close, just pick one and don't 0:21:28.164 --> 0:21:30.364 worry about it, because the mental effort of worrying about 0:21:30.364 --> 0:21:33.604 it outweighs the marginal gain that's within some margin of 0:21:33.684 --> 0:21:38.724 uncertainty anyway, right, equilibrium, Often you're indifferent between different options. 0:21:38.724 --> 0:21:40.964 I mean, likewise, like if there is something that like, 0:21:41.204 --> 0:21:46.964 you know, don't buy a bundle of things that aren't 0:21:47.004 --> 0:21:51.124 interesting to you personally, right. You know, if you're paying 0:21:51.204 --> 0:21:53.564 some extra fee when you check in a hotel for 0:21:53.604 --> 0:21:56.884 a bigger room and you're planning on having a crazy 0:21:56.924 --> 0:21:59.844 twenty four hours in Vegas and being in your room 0:21:59.884 --> 0:22:02.564