WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 2 Preview 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:13.760 Check it down, then down then Thursdays at Temper and 0:00:14.040 --> 0:00:18.040 Beating the Book Podcast Mega Pod Week two of the 0:00:18.160 --> 0:00:21.680 National Football League season. It's Gil Alexander. Uh, this is 0:00:21.720 --> 0:00:24.319 a big deal to me today because we are doing 0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:28.800 our first ever live broadcast I should say from a venue. 0:00:28.880 --> 0:00:31.440 Maybe that's the right way to say it, on site 0:00:31.840 --> 0:00:35.279 along with Mike Palm here at the D in beautiful 0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:38.400 downtown Las Vegas, the lovely d Mike. Thank you for 0:00:38.440 --> 0:00:41.879 the for the hospitality, thank you for having us here. 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:44.880 We'll do this every week yes when, oh yes, until 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:47.960 Circle opens, until Circle and then we'll move this show 0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:52.040 two blocks down the street to the to the three 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:55.080 story sports Book and above the Visa Studio Radio row. 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:57.440 What We'll do this podcast every Thursday. This is I 0:00:57.480 --> 0:00:59.360 was just saying, this is more than you know. Obviously, 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:01.880 we love doing Vison, loved doing MSG plus with our 0:01:01.880 --> 0:01:05.400 guest today, who will introduce momentarily. Uh. But I started 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:07.600 this podcast in my underwear, so to just be doing 0:01:07.600 --> 0:01:09.759 this out in public is so great that it man, 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:12.039 when we get to Circa, good lord, this is phenomenal. 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:14.640 Our guest day. By the way, we're missing Todd wishnev 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:17.560 I heard I heard he's taping the GM Shuffle for 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:21.880 next week. Is that true? I think that might be true. 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:24.040 He had a thing that he's doing, and maybe it was, 0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:27.120 in fact the GM Shuffle. Uh Todd. I don't know 0:01:27.160 --> 0:01:29.000 if he's trapped under a heavy object. I don't know 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:30.679 what the story is. But he's not here with us today. 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:33.840 UH So his antics will be missed this week, but 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:35.400 we'll get him back next week and for the rest 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:38.319 of the season. Our guest today is my co host 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:40.479 on a new show we do at MSG plus. It's 0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:44.759 called Primetime Action. It's Visa's Primetime Action powered by Draft Kings, 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:47.200 which is seven to ten Eastern for those who have 0:01:47.319 --> 0:01:50.480 MSG plus in New York City and throughout the country. 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:54.720 Matt Brown, everybody, how you doing, Matt? I'm doing great. 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:57.960 I am very happy to make my debut here on 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:01.200 the Mega Pod, and I too cannot wait for Circa 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:03.720 to open down there. I already have a reservation Mr 0:02:03.760 --> 0:02:06.840 Palm at one of those cabanas out at the UH 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:09.760 at the Pool to watch the Thursday night game when 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:11.799 you guys get going out there. So I am very 0:02:11.880 --> 0:02:15.400 very much looking forward to the new venue downtown. Can't 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:16.720 wait to see it. Did I tell you I have 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:19.920 Friday Cabanas as as well? Friday Cabana you have the 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:23.760 second day? He's got that. Wow, that's Carolina and Atlanta 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:27.079 that night, right, Matt, that's our our opening game. Oh, 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:29.480 I'm talking about March Madness. That's what he's doing. He's 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:31.640 doing right when we open. He's doing the first Thursday 0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:34.680 night game, Carolina Atlanta. You are Friday. That's that's the 0:02:34.680 --> 0:02:37.200 hottest ticket. I think the Friday of March Madness is 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:39.280 going to be the hottest kicking at the pool. And 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:41.480 we and we figured out today that we probably will 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:43.800 have college basketball at least there's a plan in place 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:46.560 for college basketball. Now that the Big Ten and the 0:02:46.600 --> 0:02:49.320 Pack twelve have also decided to play football. We think, 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:52.120 uh so here's how this goes. I think you know 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:54.560 the format. We give our three best bets, then we 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:57.560 do any thoughts on Thursday night football games. Sometimes those 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:00.200 two things are the same thing, uh, Teaser of the week, 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:04.040 survivor play and then the final two questions of course, 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:05.720 which have to do with the big favorite most likely 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:08.120 to lose out right, followed by the game that no 0:03:08.160 --> 0:03:10.640 one are that anyone here wants a no part of 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:12.880 based on the spread itself, and we were in a 0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:14.679 bizarro world. You had to bet everything, but there was 0:03:14.720 --> 0:03:17.000 one you just wanted to pass on before we get 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:22.120 into our best bets. After one week, circu Million and Survivor, 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:25.160 which neither had an overlay. In the end, you and 0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:27.840 Derrick Stevens, the P. T. Barnum of Las Vegas, the 0:03:27.919 --> 0:03:30.920 both of you use, if I may say, use uh, 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:34.239 no overlay because quite frankly, there shouldn't be one because 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:36.960 you have the best contest in town, with the best format. 0:03:37.640 --> 0:03:43.080 Tim Fitzgerald former sports book supervisor at South Point and 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:44.920 he worked for us for a brief time as well. 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:49.480 He called this uh at the ginning of August when 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:52.240 we were still only around three entries, and he said, 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:54.280 you're not going to have an overlay because the market 0:03:54.280 --> 0:03:56.600 will not allow an overlay, it will not tolerate it. 0:03:56.640 --> 0:03:58.440 And he was right. He was right. So yeah, we 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:00.600 got there. We got thirty one four eight and the 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:05.520 circum million two and almost four nine and the Survivor. 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:07.920 I think the Survivor will really take off next year. 0:04:08.440 --> 0:04:11.440 I am. I had two of those Survivor entries. I 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:12.960 had the Colts in one of them. As we know 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:15.480 from this show that's done, thirty percent of all of 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:19.360 those survivors went out with the Colts alone, of all 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:22.560 survivor entries in your content went out week one. Yeah, 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:25.320 Colts took a ton of people out, and then uh, 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:28.800 the Eagles in San Francisco were the next big chunks out. 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:31.159 So we have we have eight oh five left out 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:33.640 of thirteen nine after one week. I am more e 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:35.440 and I are buddy. You and I were talking about this, 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:37.400 we were doing you know, we all had our football 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:40.200 bets going on. We all had bets and other sports. 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:43.080 Our brains kept coming back to our survivor picks. It's 0:04:43.080 --> 0:04:46.400 an interesting little phenomenon. Seventeen people didn't enter at all. 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:48.640 They forgot to put it in. At seventeen people did 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:52.359 not submit, which is almost as unforgivable as Todd not 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:55.400 being available this morning. Almost almost. I would like to 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:57.719 laugh at those people, and maybe with a one thousand 0:04:57.720 --> 0:04:59.720 dollar entry, I should laugh at them. But you know 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:02.760 what your boy forgot to do. I forgot to put 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:06.039 in my last man standing picks, so I I pissed 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:09.680 away a hundred dollars completely forgot about it. To scale, 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:14.560 It's not as bad, right, But if you had five five, 0:05:15.080 --> 0:05:16.680 I don't know out of the seventeen you know that 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:20.560 that's seventeen entries that could have been four people technically, 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:23.640 so if you had five, that's five thousand dollars down 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:25.680 the two were some circumillions. Did they fail to enter 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:28.720 eighteen there may be a correlation or eighteen did not enter. 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:31.680 I think there's sixty three people had a perfect week 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:34.159 if I if I remember that, correct went five and 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:37.880 oh and then another ninety had went four oh and one, 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:40.480 So good starts there for those folks. MATEO, how do 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:45.320 you do? I went Bourn one and I had the horrible, 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:48.120 horrible pick of the Browns plus eight, which was my 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:51.720 loser on the week. Yeah, that was just a man 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:54.320 in retrospect. What in the hell was I thinking? But 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:56.560 outside of that, I went four and one, so started 0:05:56.600 --> 0:05:58.840 off pretty strong here. I actually didn't get in the Survivor. 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:01.479 I wish I have. I was going to do that 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:03.479 if if there was some overlay as well, but you 0:06:03.480 --> 0:06:06.280 guys got their way early on that one. So I 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:08.240 ended up not getting in the Survivor. But guess what, 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:10.680 I saved myself a thousand dollars because I too would 0:06:10.680 --> 0:06:12.400 have picked the colts, and I would be sitting here 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:15.159 talking about how after one week I was down a 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:16.919 thousand dollars. Yeah. By the way, we're looking up at 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:18.520 the screen because Matt's on the screen for us. What 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:20.440 a set up here at the d and Bar, Canada, 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:22.600 and we could we should invite people down here every 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:24.440 week at ten am to come hang out with us. 0:06:24.640 --> 0:06:26.599 We have a crowd. By the way, Matt, you could 0:06:26.600 --> 0:06:27.800 have been here too, But I didn't know what the 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:31.440 setup was. So next time. Um, But where was I 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:33.560 going with this? Oh? I don't even know where I 0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:35.040 was going with it. I lost my train of thought. 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:38.520 But essentially I can't even get mad at myself. This 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:40.120 is where I was going with it. Those of us 0:06:40.160 --> 0:06:43.039 who had Indianapolis. There's there's no regret, Like, I can't 0:06:43.040 --> 0:06:45.480 even bust myself or have any self loathing because there 0:06:45.520 --> 0:06:47.920 was no scenario where I was never going to pick them, 0:06:48.040 --> 0:06:49.800 which I think is what Matt was saying to Like, 0:06:49.960 --> 0:06:51.520 So I can't even I can't even get upset with 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:53.200 myself for losing that edgery, just happy that I had 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:56.120 two of them. Uh, let's start with our Thursday night 0:06:56.120 --> 0:07:00.120 before our best bets. I actually it's the same for me. 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:03.640 So I'm curious any thoughts on Thursday night, Matt, We'll 0:07:03.680 --> 0:07:06.440 start with you. Yeah, I mean this is I think 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:09.120 a pretty pretty good bounceback spot here for this Cleveland 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:12.240 Browns team. I mean they're actually built pretty good, I 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:14.960 think to handle the Bengals in this spot. When you 0:07:15.000 --> 0:07:17.040 look and you kind of dig in a little bit more. 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:18.840 I mean, it is gonna be a rookie quarterback and 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:21.600 Joe Burrow, don't get me wrong, future Hall of Famer 0:07:21.720 --> 0:07:25.720 Joe Burrow, but it is a rookie quarterback on the 0:07:25.800 --> 0:07:28.040 road here on a short week, and you kind of 0:07:28.080 --> 0:07:29.960 dig in a little bit more. And the Browns actually 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:32.960 were able to generate pressure on Lamar Jackson at the 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:36.240 fifth highest rate in the NFL last week, and uh, 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:38.920 let me, it didn't didn't didn't help him all that much, 0:07:38.960 --> 0:07:40.960 but they were able to get to him. It is 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:43.800 Lamar Jackson. Now we're talking about a rookie quarterback on 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:46.720 short week here, and I I really do like a 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:50.240 lot this spot here for this Browns team. I think 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:52.680 this would have been a full touchdown if the Browns 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:55.800 had even shown up last week. And so getting six. 0:07:55.840 --> 0:07:57.560 And actually there was a five and a half that 0:07:57.600 --> 0:08:00.400 popped up over on the East coast a little bit 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:02.080 earlier in the week, if you were able to get 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:03.600 in on that one as well. But yeah, I love 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:05.520 me some Browns in this game, and I think this 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:07.880 is uh where they kind of show Look, yeah, we're 0:08:07.880 --> 0:08:10.240 probably not built to win a championship quite yet, but 0:08:10.280 --> 0:08:13.480 we can beat the teams we're supposed to beat. And uh, Matt, 0:08:14.080 --> 0:08:16.200 Matt said Joe Burrows, the future Hall of Famer, because 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:17.680 that's his way of telling you. He went out this 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:20.280 U as well. We used to fly over Matt and 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:22.200 night and with along with Jay Rudeback in the day 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:24.920 and day fare over the stadium at l s U. 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:27.080 And Matt would tell us little things that he used 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:30.120 to do in the stadium that cannot be discussed here. 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:32.240 But that's uh, that's how a trench is L s U. 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:34.800 So your thought is Cleveland or nothing? Or you made 0:08:34.800 --> 0:08:37.480 a bet of Cleveland? No? No, I actually when it 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:40.080 popped down to five and a half there for a 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:41.880 short amount of time, I was able to get in 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:45.000 on them under under the six, and so I was 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:47.000 able to get in on Cleveland at five and a half. 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:49.360 It didn't last very long. But fortunately I was just 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:51.560 happen to be sitting in my computer and saw it happen, 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:53.880 And so I'm I'm on Cleveland five and a half 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:56.040 and I actually don't hate it at the six. To 0:08:56.040 --> 0:08:57.800 be perfect honest with you, is that one of your 0:08:57.800 --> 0:08:59.240 three best bets? Would you say of the week or 0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:02.080 that's just another bet, that's just another bed. I have 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:04.319 three that I like a little bit more. You it's 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:05.839 gonna be one of my three. Go you go ahead, 0:09:05.840 --> 0:09:08.000 any thoughts tonight. No, I'm not going to copy your 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:14.640 pick like Todd copied. Todd copied my teaser, and that's 0:09:14.679 --> 0:09:16.280 what he's gonna do, because you want to get any 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:18.000 of them right. But you know, we we all went 0:09:18.040 --> 0:09:21.120 down with Atlanta there. Um, I don't know, but I'm 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:22.960 not playing this game. It's not one of my picks, 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:24.320 and I don't even know if I'm gonna play it 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.679 in real life tonight. Um. If I did, I might 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:30.679 lean a little bit under the number, just because I 0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:34.520 think that Burrows showed poison week one against San Diego, 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:37.080 but they stayed in the game because Tyrod was so 0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:43.920 really awful, and well, I just, uh, I I think 0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:45.800 that they will. They will try to, you know, keep 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:47.280 the training wheels on them a little bit in a 0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:51.400 short passing game. I want to play the Browns, but god, 0:09:51.400 --> 0:09:53.000 they were so bad. I took him off the TV. 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:55.080 I took them off the TV here at bar Canada. 0:09:55.160 --> 0:09:57.040 The game was so I had to get the Clippers. 0:09:57.440 --> 0:09:59.800 People want to see the Clippers, so I had I 0:09:59.840 --> 0:10:01.320 had to find a TV and that game was just 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:02.839 so out of hand. I had to take them off 0:10:02.920 --> 0:10:05.240 off so we could put the Clippers up. But I 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:07.160 can't trust I just can't. I mean, new coach, and 0:10:07.240 --> 0:10:09.240 it's the same old story. I know it was just 0:10:09.360 --> 0:10:11.800 week one, but it's in and and and long. It's 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.280 a pass for uh Mike. For those who don't know, 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:16.840 not only Derrek Stevens conciliary. What is your official title 0:10:16.880 --> 0:10:20.600 here at presentation? Vice President Operations, which I stated last week, 0:10:20.640 --> 0:10:22.880 but somehow I don't remember this week. But you're also 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:26.800 the uh the TSAR of Active Content Management, so you 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:29.800 are responsible for what's on every TV. And you just 0:10:29.840 --> 0:10:32.760 took off the Browns. I don't normally make Thursday night picks. 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:35.319 I certainly don't normally make them in in the circu 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:38.240 million contests, nor do I in Survivor just kind of 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:41.840 steer clear of Thursday games. But today I'm making an exception. 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:46.320 I am taking the Cleveland Browns minus six consensus. Uh. 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:49.199 And the primary reason and I'm not disputing anything. The 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:51.760 Browns were miserable against the Ravens. Getting crushed thirty eight 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:55.680 to six couldn't have looked worst worse. The Bengals should 0:10:55.679 --> 0:10:58.320 have probably beaten the Chargers, but a offensive p I 0:10:58.360 --> 0:10:59.880 which I think was an offensive p I on A J. 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:04.559 Green and then uh, Randy Bullock. Uh as Randy's first Yeah, 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:07.280 Randy Bullock has the calf strain if you believe that 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:09.280 in Shanks the field goal that could have said it overtime. 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:11.480 By the way, the calf is fine now interestingly for 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:14.320 Randy Bullock. Um, but I'm on to Cleveland primarily because 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:16.400 of the rookie quarterback angle. I'm going to my phone 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:18.679 here because I want to get this right. I might 0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:21.120 take onf my glasses cronkite style for this, because it's 0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:24.200 uh serious matter. This is from my buddy t A 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:26.520 at Cleve t A c l e v t A 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:29.240 on Twitter. It does a who's great follow? Uh. He 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:32.280 was talking about the Browns in this game since two 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:34.600 thousand five. And I'm not typically a trends guy either, 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:37.640 but some trends of matter. Here's this since two thousand five, 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:39.920 and we were looking for this last night, Matt Matt 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:43.280 on Primetime Action since two thousand five. Rookie quarterbacks who 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:45.120 had to play on a short week on a Thursday 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:47.440 early in the season, talking about the first eight weeks 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:50.480 of the season one in six straight up, one touchdown, 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:54.760 ten picks, and an anemic five point seven yards per attempt. 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:58.520 As t A said, here, yuck taking the Browns minus six. 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:00.960 I'm with him. I'm take in the Browns minus six. 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:03.160 That's the primary reason. And if you do a query 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:05.880 search on this, the only quarterback in that subset to 0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:08.720 win a game like this was the great Deshaun Watson 0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:13.319 in his rookie year for the Texans. Russell Wilson didn't 0:12:13.360 --> 0:12:17.120 get this done in this situation, nor did the quarterbacking 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:19.640 Hall of Fame of Geno Smith, Sam Donald, Brandon Weed 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.880 and E. J. Manuel or Daniel Jones. We'll see, but 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:25.920 I'll I'll bet against that. I really do think the 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:27.840 short week this early is gonna be tougher Joe Burrow. 0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:32.240 So Cleveland is my number two best bet of the week. 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.360 How about look at you? Are you? Are you just 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:37.760 play Devil's out here? You're not all worried about the injuries? 0:12:37.800 --> 0:12:40.160 I mean, and Joe, who's out, Greedy Williams out, Kevin 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:43.000 Johnson out, Mack Wilson out, Jacob Phillips out. Then they're 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:47.560 questionable with Jarvis Landry and Olivier Vernon and Jack Conklin, 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:49.760 I mean, the only thing that And I'm on your 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.199 side as well with this, But are you at all 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:54.880 worried about the how shorthanded the Browns are gonna? Sure? 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:57.439 Like that absolutely enters in my thinking. But here's the thing. 0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:02.280 If Baker Mayfield and the talent that this team supposedly has, 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:06.160 even even besides those injuries, is what it's supposed to be, 0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:09.200 they have to win this football game, and they have 0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:12.360 to win it going away, seriously on a short week 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:15.000 like this. By the way, the Cleveland Browns I believe 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:18.640 will be my survivor pick this week as well. Wow, 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:22.160 you're gonna use it? Yeah? Interesting, So I'll take the 0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:25.120 Titans was the one that got through, thankfully, after Stephen 0:13:25.120 --> 0:13:27.480 Gotkowski took ten points off the board that he could 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.600 add last week with Shanks. I think I'm gonna go 0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:33.560 Tennessee and now Cleveland this week. You're very strong on 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:35.920 this game, very strong on this Let's do our best 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:39.760 bets Matteo number one, number one for me. Seahawks minus 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:43.199 three and a half versus the Patriots. Here, this is 0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:46.800 to me a classic situation of people still looking at 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:49.960 this Patriots team and feeling having having these warm fuzzies 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.600 about this Patriots team. And listen, it's a one game sample, 0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:56.360 I get it. But they finally came out and let 0:13:56.480 --> 0:14:00.439 Russell Wilson be Russell Wilson from the beginning of the game. 0:14:00.640 --> 0:14:03.400 I think that they saw I think that they looked 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:05.839 at this and they saw how much success they were 0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:08.280 able to have by being able to do that. I 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:11.280 would like to think in the assumption of rational thinking 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:14.040 in the NFL from a coaching standpoint, I understand is 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:18.000 death sometimes, but I'm gonna assume rational thinking here, and 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:19.680 that is the fact that they're gonna go out and 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:23.000 let Russell Wilson do that yet again against this Patriots 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:26.760 team that, as we know, just absolutely ravaged by opt outs. 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:28.560 Really on the defensive side of the ball, as well 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:32.080 as people leaving town to shorthanded defense. Here at home 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:35.680 with the Seahawks team, Russell Wilson throwing early and often 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:38.600 give me the Seahawks minus three and a half in 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:40.360 this game? Do you permit me to step in line? 0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:43.680 Mr Palm, I got the Seahawks. Is my number one pick? 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:47.840 Number one number one Browns were my number two. Uh. 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:52.080 Much of almost mimicking exactly what Matt is saying. That 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:54.920 was the thing about the Seahawks in prior years. They 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:57.360 just sort of did what they did for three quarters 0:14:57.600 --> 0:14:59.200 and then they said, all right, let's put the cape 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:02.480 on Russell Wilson and get us out of here, superman. Uh. 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:05.160 And he would more often than not. Now it looks 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:08.080 like because they have heard this this outcry for why 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:10.360 don't you just do what you do from from the 0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:12.560 beginning of a game, Let's have a game plan that 0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:17.720 doesn't necessitate an escape job. You're right, the assumption of 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:22.320 rational thinking. Maybe we die with that, Matt. But that's 0:15:22.400 --> 0:15:25.080 what I'm going with the assumption of rational thinking here 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:27.240 for a guy like Pete Carroll. And by the way, 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:30.280 it's also with the Patriots. I was against the Patriots 0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:32.040 that was one of my losses last week. That was 0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:33.960 a terrible pick as well on the Dolphins, as it 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:36.600 turned out. But it's also it's so funny to hear 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:38.520 people talk about the NFL. They're like, oh, the Dolphins 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:41.240 are terrible. Oh, look, the Patriots are gonna be as great. 0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:43.920 You know, it's always it's still Bill Belichick. Well, if 0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:47.080 the Dolphins are that sucky, does it immediately mean that 0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:49.320 the Patriots are that great. I'm not going to get 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:52.440 swayed by one game. I still don't think the Patriots 0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:54.920 are gonna be this good this year, and I don't 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:57.720 think they showed me that much in Week one. The 0:15:57.920 --> 0:16:01.720 Cam Newton runs all day long strategy is not a 0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:07.440 sustainable offense. I will take the Seahawks minus four. Terrific, terrific, 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:11.200 thank you. So I'm filling in as the stenographer for 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:15.720 takeing a judge injury. No, no, no, and I won't no. 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:19.360 I won't tell whether people are good people. I won't 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:21.880 tell whether people are good people are bad people, or 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:23.800 where they're from I or they're blowhards or any of 0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:27.280 that stuff. I'll just with with the dispassion record the place. 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:29.280 Can we just do this one disclaimer before you get 0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:31.680 your pick. I hope Todd's okay. Is I want to 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:34.280 have this recorded and and nothing have that own record. 0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:38.440 We probably shouldn't release it until we know he's okay. 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:41.280 That's probably because it might come off wrong if he 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:43.720 passed or something that's true. So I'll give you my 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:47.160 number one pick. I'm gonna take and I thought this 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:49.800 line was just too high. I'm gonna take Matt Rule 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:53.880 and his Carolina Panthers plus nine at Tampa Bay. I 0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:56.920 think that the score the Raiders is a little bit 0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:59.600 misleading in this in in in that game, I mean 0:16:59.600 --> 0:17:03.400 a horror a fourth down call at midfield. Uh, when 0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:06.040 you have McCaffrey and Bridgewater not to try some sort 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:09.000 of play action or get somebody the kid they gave 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:12.000 the ball to from West Georgia three years in the league, 0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:15.680 sixteen carries for twenty five yards. I mean this intrucial 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:17.679 fourth and warrucial. You know they got behind in the 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:19.520 game because they went away from McCaffrey and then they 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:20.960 went back to him in the third quarter. On that 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:22.919 eighty five yard drive, he had eleven touches. They went 0:17:22.960 --> 0:17:24.680 up and down the field. That's how they got back 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:27.199 in the game and actually took the lead. I'm just 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:30.080 I'm not sold that that father time has to take it. 0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:32.320 Its toll on Brady. I don't know that Arian said 0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:34.400 he's you know, he plays better in practice. I don't 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:35.840 know why he didn't play so well in the game. 0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:38.320 I think this is Tom Brady. He was horrible the 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:40.679 last eight weeks of the year in New England. I 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:43.280 know he has more weapons, but I don't think he's 0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:45.879 their savior down there. I don't think they're a playoff team. 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:47.639 I know it's not easy going in New Orleans, but 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:50.000 New Orleans sucks the first week every year. Payton's terrible, 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:52.720 he is he all they always lose, and here they 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:54.280 come out with you know, because I was going to 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:56.679 counter by saying, don't you think the pick six and 0:17:56.680 --> 0:17:59.960 then that mortar kick that the Saints also recovered skews 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:02.240 that result last week. But that's an interesting point about 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:05.000 the SAT. So I was I was down. I was 0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:07.320 higher on Tampa Bay. I thought this was a new 0:18:07.359 --> 0:18:09.399 look for him and he finally had some receivers for 0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:12.520 the first time since moss Um. But no, and I 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:14.960 thought I thought Carolina looked decent and in a loss 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:17.119 at home. Be it to the Raiders. But this Raiders 0:18:17.160 --> 0:18:18.840 team may be a little underrated as well. I just 0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:20.560 thought this number would come out five and a half 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:22.760 or six, and when it was over seven, I had 0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:24.200 to take it. And it's going up still eight and 0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:26.240 a half now nine, So I'll take nine. Is my 0:18:26.320 --> 0:18:28.760 number one best bet with the Carolina Panthers. Are you 0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:31.119 taking nine? Let me just check on that, and the 0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:34.320 name of Todd guishnev let me take. Here we go, okay, 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:36.520 here we go again? Do we give you? There's always 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:38.920