1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,640 Speaker 1: I'm now better educated than my current wife, but I'm 2 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: not looking to divorce her simply to marry someone with 3 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:16,119 Speaker 1: a PhD. That's good. This episode of Bloomberg Benchmark is 4 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: sponsored by HSBC, winner of Trade Finance America's sixteen Company 5 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: Award for Best Supply Chain Finance Bank in North America 6 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 1: HSBC where Ambition connects with Opportunity. Hello, and welcome back 7 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Benchmark, a podcasts about the global economy. It's 8 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: Thursday seven. I'm a Bloomberg News joining from my hometown 9 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: of Tokyo. Also joining from DC is Tori Still Well, 10 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:50,520 Speaker 1: Hey Tor, Hey hockey. Hi, what's new. Well, the cherry 11 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 1: blossoms are blowing in the breeze and it's pretty nice outside, 12 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: so not too much they complain about over here. Oh nice. 13 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: By the time our listeners here the show, though, the 14 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: cherry awesomes will be gone. Well that got real depressing 15 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: real quick. Well, you know, I think I'm back during 16 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 1: the Edo period, and I think, like the eighteen hundreds 17 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:14,560 Speaker 1: or something, there was this big philosophy in Japan that 18 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: what's beautiful, it's fleeting, So they went around and replanted 19 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: a lot of the cherry blossom trees here to make 20 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: sure that the trees on the ground were the kind 21 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: of trees that bloom really quickly and then disappear really 22 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 1: quickly too, So you know what's beautiful as fleeting. That's 23 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: good to know. I like that. I'm gonna make a 24 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 1: mix tape called that or something. So Aki, we have 25 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: quite the topic today, right, we do? We do? We 26 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 1: are talking about love and economics, which it's like the 27 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 1: perfect melding of my two favorite topics. I've been an 28 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 1: economics journalist for seven years now, so I can't help 29 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: but think of everything through the lens of their economy, 30 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 1: even for something as you know, romantic and and wonderful 31 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: and mysterious as like love and love and dating and marriage. 32 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 1: But love isn't always rational, isn't Acky, No, it is not, 33 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: but we try to make it. I guess well, you know, 34 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: today we're talking about this phenomenon called assortative mating um 35 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 1: and it's when two people who are pretty similar to 36 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:24,639 Speaker 1: each other get married. So, uh, that can be referring 37 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: to any kind of traits. It could be race and ethnicity, 38 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: it can be income level. Today we're going to be 39 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 1: mostly talking about education level. Acky it sounds like you 40 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 1: went down sort of a rabbit hole when you were 41 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 1: researching this topic, and I think it'd be fun to 42 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 1: discuss a little bit of the broad findings in the 43 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: research and then we can move on to a discussion. Yeah, definitely. 44 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: Let's let's introduce our special guests with you in the 45 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 1: DC studio first though. Richard Reeves is a Senior Fellow 46 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 1: of Economic Studies and also co director of the Center 47 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: on Children and Families at Brookings. Richard, thanks so much 48 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: for joining us. Great to be here, Rocky, thanks for 49 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 1: hug me. Hi. Tori, So, I guess before we jump 50 00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: into the show, I think we should talk about our 51 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: own partners, since we're talking about a topic like a 52 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: sort of mating. So, Tori, you met your boyfriend Tucker 53 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 1: in college, right. Tucker and I have been dating for 54 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 1: two and a half years now. We met in college, 55 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 1: actually as freshman almost seven eight years ago, which seems 56 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,279 Speaker 1: like a really long time ago, and it is um 57 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 1: but we did actually we actually did not start dating 58 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: in college. We sort of rekindled our friendships slash live 59 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: here in d C when I moved here in and Richard, 60 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: what about you, are you married? Yes? I am. I 61 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,559 Speaker 1: feel like I've been lud onto a show under false pretentions. 62 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 1: I've got lots of statistics about marriage patterns. I wasn't 63 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 1: ready to talk about my own marital history, but but 64 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: I'm happy to share it. I actually did marry someone 65 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 1: who I met at college as well, my college sweetheart, 66 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: but that marriage ended in divorce, so UM, sorry to 67 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: pass that bad news on Torge. But the good news 68 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 1: is that I then met my second wife, who was 69 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 1: American and she's kind of one of the main reasons 70 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:19,919 Speaker 1: that I'm now here with this funny accent, and she 71 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 1: and I met through work, so I guess you could 72 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 1: say that the first marriage was assortative mating through education 73 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: and the second one was assortative mating through occupation. But 74 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 1: clearly clearly kind of selecting, or if you like, this 75 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 1: is kind of pre online dating. UM still finding ways 76 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: to end up with people with pretty similar education levels, 77 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: the same in the case of my first marriage and 78 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 1: similar in the case of my second marriage, although I've 79 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 1: subsequently cheated because although we were both college graduates when 80 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: we met, I've subsequently got a PhD. So I'm now 81 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:56,280 Speaker 1: better educated than my current wife. But I'm not looking 82 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 1: to divorce her simply to marry someone with a pitch 83 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 1: D good. I accept it, right, Hockey. What about you 84 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 1: and Emily? Yeah, so my girlfriend Emily and I both 85 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 1: have bachelor degrees, but Emily is about to start law 86 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: school in September, so she's about to out educate me too. 87 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 1: But for now, I guess we've fit into the box 88 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: of assortative meeting. So the research is pretty clear on 89 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 1: how we're marrying more people who share the same educational 90 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: background as us. So one study found that people are 91 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: marrying someone with a similar level of education at the 92 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:46,279 Speaker 1: highest rates since the Gilded Age. That's that's kind of 93 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 1: a crazy statistic. So people were marrying, you know, amongst 94 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:53,719 Speaker 1: their own education levels at the turn of the twentieth century, 95 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: and then throughout the first half of the nineteen hundreds 96 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: that rate was going down a lot, so people were 97 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: kind of mixing a lot more. And ever since, right 98 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,280 Speaker 1: around World War Two, it's been steadily coming back up. 99 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 1: And it seems like that's happening in tandem with growing 100 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 1: income inequalities. So Richard, sort of, what's the blame here, 101 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 1: what's going on? I think we have to understand what's 102 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 1: driving the increase in a sortative mating. So it's quite 103 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 1: right to say that since the sixties, the proportion of 104 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:26,160 Speaker 1: people marrying at the same education level has increased, So 105 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 1: now most people marry somewhat of the same education level, 106 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:34,280 Speaker 1: just over whereas it was down in the forties before. 107 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,279 Speaker 1: But that's against the backdrop of a massive increase in 108 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:41,479 Speaker 1: female education. Right. So one of the reasons why male 109 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: college graduates are now marrying female college graduates um as 110 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 1: opposed to the people who would have married is because 111 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,039 Speaker 1: there are a lot more female college graduates. There's a 112 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: trend underlying underlying it, and so it's actually quite hard 113 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 1: to know whether or not there was a sortative mating 114 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 1: going on before on some other level, right interest i 115 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:03,119 Speaker 1: Q what that, but that that's now showing itself through 116 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: education because women are obviously much more educated than they 117 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 1: were before. So it's just simply a bit to use 118 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 1: economic terms, there's just a biggest supply of female college graduates, 119 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 1: which is meeting the demand of both men and women 120 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: to marry someone of the same education level. And then 121 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 1: that as you say that, as you say then is 122 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 1: having an inadvertent byproduct of increasing income in equality because 123 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 1: the other trend is that we see increasing wages for 124 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 1: college graduates relative to everybody else, So the returns to 125 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 1: college education have gone up. Now you've got more women 126 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: who are college graduates, they are marrying male college graduates, 127 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: so that's two college graduates per household and there and 128 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: each of them are owning more than they were four 129 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: years ago. So you add one trend on top of 130 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 1: the other. And what that means is that quite a 131 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: significant amount of the increase in income in equality, up 132 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 1: to say a seventh of it, crudely speaking in calling 133 00:07:57,440 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 1: to one of my colleagues, can be explained by a 134 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,119 Speaker 1: sort of mating, and by the rise in assorted mating. 135 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: I think it's important to it's not a new phenomenon, 136 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 1: it's just increasing, and that is a factor in growing 137 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 1: income and equality. Right, you know, I was reading I 138 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 1: think a study in sociology UM that also found that 139 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: men were increasingly preferring women who had the same education 140 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: level as them. So like when you kind of think 141 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 1: about maybe like the nineteen sixties and a male lawyer 142 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 1: might have married his female secretary, who is who maybe 143 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: never went to college. But now more and more those lawyers, 144 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: I think they're marrying other female lawyers, or maybe like 145 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,679 Speaker 1: a prominent client or something like that. Um or to 146 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 1: how long have you been married to your current wife? 147 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: It's just a trick question that you tripped deliberately trying 148 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 1: to trip me into getting this wrong. So I think 149 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: you can then to send this podcast to my wife. 150 00:08:55,760 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: We've been married for fifteen years. Fifteen years and tour 151 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 1: you've been with Tucker for two and a half years. Right. Yeah, 152 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 1: So you guys probably don't know the world of online 153 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 1: dating too much. But a year ago I was single, 154 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 1: so I was using all kinds of different apps, and 155 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,200 Speaker 1: you know what kind of struck me was there all 156 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 1: these services that let you explicitly filter people out according to, like, um, 157 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 1: their education level, or their income bracket, or even like 158 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: their race, so you could be like, oh, filtered by Yeah, 159 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 1: it's become really controversial in the online and it's pretty terrible. 160 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: And and even back when I was single, I was thinking, 161 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: my gosh, this is really problematic, Like this is really 162 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:45,679 Speaker 1: you know, if the use of online dating grows, we 163 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 1: might see even more assortative mating. If if people kind 164 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,079 Speaker 1: of tend to, you know, filter out according to these 165 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: pretty superficial demographic characteristics. Um, Richard, do you have any 166 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: thoughts on that? Yeah, it's I think that what's happened 167 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:04,439 Speaker 1: is that algorithms are being added to the assortative mating process. 168 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 1: So you know, through these online dating platforms, you can, 169 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 1: as you say, just filter out. So I think that 170 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 1: there was there's a strong trend anyway to be meeting 171 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: and marrying people of the same education level, but online 172 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 1: dating just kind of takes that to a new level, 173 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:21,960 Speaker 1: which is that you you reduce the chance of even 174 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 1: by accident, meeting somebody who isn't at the same education 175 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 1: and you literally just take them off. You're not even 176 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 1: in the market for that at all. So at least 177 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: if in terms of non online dating, you might go 178 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:34,680 Speaker 1: to a party, you might get talking to someone and 179 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 1: only part way through the conversation discover that they never 180 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,719 Speaker 1: finished their college degree or whatever. But by then you 181 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: might already be interested in them. But if you've already 182 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 1: filtered that out, then you're only going to meet people 183 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: who you've pre selected on the base of their education level. 184 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 1: So other things being equal, it seems almost certain that 185 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: online dating will increase what is already quite a quickly 186 00:10:55,800 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: rising level of assortative mating with all the benefits um 187 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 1: at all the challenges that that brings. Right, there's I 188 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:05,680 Speaker 1: think there was one study that looked at the logs 189 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 1: of an unnamed online dating company, and that study found 190 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 1: that people definitely gravitate to other people, um, you know, 191 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 1: who have similar characteristics, and that was on education level, 192 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 1: income level, definitely recent ethnicity, and even some really random 193 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:24,959 Speaker 1: things like hey, we're we're. There's lots of ugly phrases 194 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 1: in this We've had a sort of mating and algorithms, 195 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 1: but perhaps the ugliest of all is marital homogamy and 196 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 1: homogamy in the sociology literature, and that's just a very 197 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: sociological way of saying people marry people who are like themselves. 198 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,080 Speaker 1: And that does reach beyond education into all kinds of 199 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: other things. So it could include religion, for example, they 200 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: could include to stend of your faith, it can include race, 201 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:47,560 Speaker 1: it can include all kinds of things. And that's a 202 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: that that's a trend that's as old as human history. 203 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 1: What's interesting, though, is that some of that is break 204 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 1: is actually going in the other directions. So, for example, 205 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:00,480 Speaker 1: you are seeing increased marriage across rati all lines in 206 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:03,199 Speaker 1: the US that's actually been ticking up um and it's 207 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: quite pronounced for Asian Americans, for example, quite likely to 208 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: marry non Asian Americans. But across all races now there's 209 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 1: been an increase in marrying across race lines, and so 210 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 1: actually we're getting to the point now where it's more 211 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 1: common to marry someone of a different race or ethnicity 212 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,839 Speaker 1: than to marry someone of a different social class. So 213 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 1: the trends are going the other way, which is quite interesting. 214 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 1: So you're sort of seeing more class segregation or education 215 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: segregation in terms of marriage alongside less racial segregation by marriage, 216 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 1: which isn't to say that we're anything like past racial segregation, 217 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: but so the filters that we just talked about are 218 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 1: actually it turns out that, certainly in terms of people's 219 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 1: behavior and who they actually end up marrying, the education 220 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: and class are playing, if anything, is slightly stronger role 221 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 1: now than race, depending on the races that you're talking about. Wow, 222 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 1: I want to take a short break here to hear 223 00:12:52,360 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: from our sponsor, and then we'll come right back this episode. 224 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 1: The Bloomberg Benchmark is sponsored by HSBC with over eight 225 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 1: thousand global relationship managers on the ground in over sixty countries. 226 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:19,680 Speaker 1: HSBC makes your global ambition their local business HSBC. So, Richard, 227 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 1: in a previous life, you were in government. Before you 228 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 1: moved to the US A couple of years ago, you 229 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 1: were the director strategy to the Deputy Prime Minister in 230 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 1: the UK. And I understand your former boss made increasing 231 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 1: social mobility a big part of this platform, right he 232 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 1: certainly did, yes, And so you've spent a lot of 233 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: time thinking about social mobility, and even since then you've 234 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 1: written a lot about that, um, you know, making sure 235 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:46,559 Speaker 1: that we have the kind of economy where poor kids 236 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 1: could rise the income ladder and eventually become you know, 237 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:53,200 Speaker 1: comfortable or even rich. And and so I'm wondering, like, 238 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 1: does this trend of assortative mating doesn't concern you? Yes, 239 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:00,079 Speaker 1: it does, for for two reasons really want to is 240 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: that it doesn't. It does add to increased incoming equality, 241 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: which is obviously not the same thing as mobility, but 242 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: can be associated with lack of mobility. So you do 243 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 1: see that it adds to the widening economic divides. So 244 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 1: there's that, and that other things equal economic resources do 245 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 1: matter for people's life chances. So just purely economically assorted 246 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 1: mating has has an impact, but I think I think 247 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 1: it actually goes slightly more deeper than that, because we 248 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 1: not only see the college graduates more likely to marry 249 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 1: college graduates, but their marriages also tend to be more stable, 250 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: they tend to be more likely to last, the children 251 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: tend to be born within the marriage, and so on, 252 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: and so actually what's happening in the US is that 253 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 1: college graduates look quite traditional in their approaches to marriage 254 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 1: and to divorce and to child rearing within marriage, contrary 255 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,479 Speaker 1: to what you might thought would happen, maybe in the seventies. 256 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 1: But at the other end of the education spectrum, or 257 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 1: even towards the middle, you're seeing more divorce, more children 258 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 1: being born outside of marriage and then maybe subsequently leading 259 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: to a marriage, but less stable marriages as well. And 260 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: instability and parenting are huge factors for life chances for children. 261 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 1: So it's almost as if the research suggests quite strongly 262 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 1: that stability matters for kids life chances. Marriage is one 263 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: way to provide that stability, especially in America quite different 264 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: to Europe in that sense, and so it's almost as 265 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 1: if upper middle class or college educated Americans they got 266 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 1: the memo that it's good to get married first, then 267 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 1: have your kids, make sure economically secure, and try and 268 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 1: make the marriage last and raise your kids together if 269 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: you can. And in fact, I think that's that's the 270 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 1: role that marriage plays for a lot of Americans. Now. 271 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 1: You don't need to get married to be dating or 272 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: in a relationship or to have and you don't don't 273 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 1: need it very often economically, So it's mostly about kids now. 274 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 1: And so what that means is the kids who are 275 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:44,000 Speaker 1: fortunate enough to be born to college educated parents not 276 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 1: only have more money and more educated parents, but also 277 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 1: the family itself is more likely to be stable. And 278 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 1: so we're seeing as one advantage pile on top of 279 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: the other and at the other end and at one 280 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 1: disadvantage pile on top of the other. That means in 281 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: terms of intergenerational mobility is that the chances of your 282 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 1: state as being inherited to some extent of ending up 283 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 1: in the same place roughly on the ladder as your parents, 284 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: if anything, that's getting worse and so Assortedive mating is 285 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: one of those really interesting and difficult problems. It's much 286 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 1: harder than ca to of education or affordable college order 287 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 1: because it's this is about intimate life choices. How do 288 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 1: you how do you go about fixing exactly? What does 289 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 1: that do have? Conmagine the public policy that says, okay, 290 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: we're just going to randomly choose your marriage partner for 291 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 1: you can have state, you can have an arranged marriage policy, 292 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:32,600 Speaker 1: but deliberately you know, says no, No, you're a college graduate, 293 00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 1: so you're not allowed to marry a college Right. It's 294 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 1: clearly we're in the realm of dystopian fantasies. Um. But 295 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: I do think we might want to think a little 296 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 1: bit about segregation more generally, segregation occupationally, segregation, geographically, segregation, 297 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 1: education and now maritally, and the extent to which there 298 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: are these sort of almost different lives being led by 299 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 1: people of different backgrounds, which reduces the chances of meeting 300 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 1: someone and marrying across those lines. So it may become 301 00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 1: quite self perpetuating. And so to that extent, I don't 302 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: think new us, particularly those who have married assortatively to 303 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 1: use that ugly word again, should throw any stones. I 304 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: think as policymakers or as analysts of the economy and 305 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 1: what's happening, I do think it's something that we have 306 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: to take quite seriously in terms of understanding lack of 307 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 1: my ability. We spent so much time hearing about uh 308 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 1: fixes to income inequality in terms of tax policy and 309 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 1: education policy, and um all kinds of other income redistribution schemes. 310 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,160 Speaker 1: But you know, I think the question here is are 311 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: our own classist, snobby, maybe even a litist preferences to blame? 312 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 1: And I think the answer is partially yes, Well, I 313 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: think it's quite That's when it gets very difficult, because 314 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,920 Speaker 1: they are they are our preferences, and so the question 315 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 1: then becomes just to whether or not we should be 316 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 1: judging ourselves or other people for having those preferences. And 317 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 1: I think I also think let's let's let's look at 318 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 1: this from a positive aspect. We've looked at it from 319 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,639 Speaker 1: a negative one too, which is, look if one of 320 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 1: the reasons why this is also happening and why men 321 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 1: and women want to marry someone of the same education level, 322 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 1: it's because gender roles have changed too. So that's the 323 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 1: other factor here. So you mentioned earlier lawyers might have 324 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 1: married their secretary, or a doctor might have married that's 325 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 1: the stereotype, and now lawyers are marrying lawyers and that's 326 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:14,680 Speaker 1: the fact my brother is a doctor. Guess what, he's 327 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:18,399 Speaker 1: married to a doctor. Um. Right. So whereas when my 328 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,920 Speaker 1: mom was a nurse, she would date doctors. My dad's 329 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 1: not a doctor, but she's so because she was a nurse. Now, 330 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 1: the fact that women are our doctors and lawyers, and 331 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 1: that men would prefer to be with someone who's a 332 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 1: doctor or a lawyer is a sign of huge progress 333 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:34,239 Speaker 1: in terms of gender equas. So what you're saying is 334 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:39,440 Speaker 1: gender equality good tick, a long way to go, but 335 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,720 Speaker 1: but one of the by products of that with a 336 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: sort of mating is increased household income inequality and possibly 337 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 1: less intergenerational mobility. And so as with all of these things, 338 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,879 Speaker 1: there's always trade off, there's always costs and benefits to 339 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 1: these different trends, and and and our job really is 340 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 1: to try and sort through all those trends and see 341 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,879 Speaker 1: what the implications of them are, and not to say 342 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 1: I think it's illegitimate really force policy makers to start 343 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 1: casting judgment on who we should or shouldn't marry. Um, 344 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,880 Speaker 1: But it might be relevant to say this is one 345 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 1: of the reasons why income in equality is so high, 346 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 1: and that might put a different cast on arguments for 347 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:22,959 Speaker 1: more redistribution, for example, So it doesn't sound like, you know, 348 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders next proposal should be, let's assign all the 349 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,679 Speaker 1: spouses by lottery. Let's make it way more equal that 350 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: way fund though that would be to hear him say, Richard, 351 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 1: what do you think about, you know, widening economic inequality itself, 352 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 1: changing our own meeting patterns, kind of the direction of 353 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 1: causality in the other way. That's very interesting. So we 354 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 1: have focused so far on the impact of a sort 355 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,959 Speaker 1: of to mating on income in equality. And actually one 356 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 1: of the studies that you may have seen that certainly reds, 357 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,719 Speaker 1: shows that the Genie coefficient, which is a very wonky 358 00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: measure of income in equality, would be seven points lower 359 00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 1: in US were it not for assortative mating. So if 360 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 1: people did if people did marry randomly using the lottery 361 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 1: Tori's lottery idea, I'm calling it your idea, not my idea. 362 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: So let's say we did do randomly, then the Genie 363 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,120 Speaker 1: coefficient would be point three four are than point four three. 364 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: But in in layman's terms, what that means is that 365 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 1: the US would be about as equal as France or Italy. 366 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 1: So imagine your utopia or a dystopia where actually people 367 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,440 Speaker 1: are randomly marrying. Then that is that's the kind of 368 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: effect you would have on income inequality. But at the 369 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: same time, widening income in equality may add to assortative mating, 370 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 1: as you just implied, because we see, for example, there's 371 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 1: a widening gap in your chances of going to and 372 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 1: completing for your college based on your parents income household income, 373 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,440 Speaker 1: a widening gap. So you're seeing that it's relatively more 374 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,920 Speaker 1: likely for children from affluent backgrounds to go to for 375 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 1: your colleges and stay at them compared to kids from 376 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 1: ball backgrounds. That gaps are widening over time. So guess what, 377 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:58,879 Speaker 1: Tory met her boyfriend at college. But it turns out 378 00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:00,920 Speaker 1: that you're more likely to meet someone at college who 379 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: is from themselves from an affluent background, and that's one 380 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 1: of the reasons they're at college. Then you go and 381 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 1: live in a certain neighborhood and guess what your neighbors 382 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 1: are all kind of like you. And then you go 383 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 1: and work in a certain kind of institution like the 384 00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 1: Brookings Institution or Bloomberg where guess what, you're surrounded by 385 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:15,639 Speaker 1: the people's are And so actually, what's happening is that 386 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 1: some of the results of income in equality in terms 387 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 1: of occupational, geographical and educational segregation and inqual might actually 388 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,879 Speaker 1: add to assortive meeting because candidly, you may not actually 389 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,160 Speaker 1: be meeting that many people who aren't of your educational 390 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 1: level in order to date them in the first place. No, 391 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 1: speaking of France and Italy, I'm actually headed off there 392 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 1: for the next couple of weeks. What does it look 393 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 1: like in other parts of the world? Is this? Is 394 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 1: this an issue and a trend in other places? It is? 395 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: So I can only actually speak to the UK, I 396 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: don't I don't know the data elsewhere, but certainly within 397 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:53,159 Speaker 1: the UK, um it's quite a significant factor. Um. So 398 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,439 Speaker 1: you see the same educational and assorted mating patterns in 399 00:21:56,440 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 1: the UK, and in fact, by some estimates, the the 400 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:04,639 Speaker 1: single biggest reason for a recorded decline in social mobility, 401 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:08,439 Speaker 1: so for social mobility getting worse in the UK is 402 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:13,159 Speaker 1: the increase in women's educational outcomes. Again come back to 403 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,639 Speaker 1: this trade off. So that was a really difficult finding 404 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,199 Speaker 1: for us in government and for those grappling with it, 405 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: is that the more the more educated women were getting 406 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:26,199 Speaker 1: in the UK, the worst social mobility. God, why for 407 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 1: the reasons we just identified. Because the educated women marry 408 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 1: the educated men, they have high levels of human capital, 409 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 1: which they then turn into higher levels of financial capital 410 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,639 Speaker 1: because of the returns to earnings, which means they can 411 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,080 Speaker 1: live in good neighborhoods or afford private schools, which means 412 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 1: their kids do better. And so actually it's again one 413 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 1: of these things where you saw in the UK a 414 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,920 Speaker 1: really interesting impact on intergenerational mobility, which is beyond the 415 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 1: reach of policy. And indeed good news, it's good news 416 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 1: and more women are going to college. But that good 417 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:58,640 Speaker 1: news did carry with their implications for mobility and inequality, 418 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 1: which we should just be much about. Amazing, that's quite 419 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 1: the dilemma. Well, Richard, thank you so much for joining 420 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 1: us today. This was really a fascinating conversation. Thank you 421 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:13,440 Speaker 1: for having me. It's been it's been fun, and thanks 422 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 1: to you all for listening to Bloomberg Benchmark. We'll be 423 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 1: back next week and until then, you can find us 424 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,200 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Terminal and Bloomberg dot com, as well 425 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 1: as on iTunes, podcast, Stitcher, and other platforms. While you're there, 426 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 1: please take a minute to rate and review the show. 427 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,879 Speaker 1: So more listeners can find us and let us know 428 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,199 Speaker 1: what you thought of the show. We just love getting 429 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,639 Speaker 1: your feedback and we really want to hear more. You 430 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,360 Speaker 1: can talk to us and follow us on Twitter at 431 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 1: Richard Reeves Richard Lee Reeves for our guest Tori stillwell 432 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: and Akito seven. See you next week. This episode of 433 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:53,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Benchmark was sponsored by HSBC. 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