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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read a lot? They're up for running

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Speaker 2: a game so smooth, so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 3: Sisting just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 3: sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time. How

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Speaker 3: shot with that shop of mind.

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Speaker 1: But buddy, and that's why you see nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying again the wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left to Wanda wide eyed drill pibus, How old Earth,

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Speaker 1: big time happens.

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, Welcome back to Wonderful the Soccerbating podcast from

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Speaker 4: the Action Network. My name is Michael Leeboff and joining

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Speaker 4: me as always my friends Anthony Dubundo and bj Cunningham.

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Speaker 4: In today's episode, we will go over the four upcoming

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Speaker 4: quarterfinal matches in the Champions League, touch on a little

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Speaker 4: Europa League, and then give out our favorite bets for

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Speaker 4: those aforementioned.

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Speaker 2: Champions League matches.

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Speaker 4: But we will start with what I would call the headliner,

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Speaker 4: Real Madrid there plus one forty hosting Chelsea plus one ninety.

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Speaker 4: The draw here is plus two forty Madrid is up

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Speaker 4: three to one in the aggregate right now minus fifteen

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Speaker 4: hundred to advance Chelsea plus seven ninety BJ. Anthony, all

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Speaker 4: three of us were pretty confident in Chelsea's ability to

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Speaker 4: get a result at home if they failed. And what

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Speaker 4: was I think most people would say a lucky result

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Speaker 4: for Real Madrid. It was pretty much a coin flip.

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Speaker 4: Kareem Benzema was fantastic and gets Ridrid out there out

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Speaker 4: of Stanford Bridge with a three one victory. And now

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Speaker 4: we head to the Burnabou and it's a big mountain

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Speaker 4: for Chelsea to climb. BJ. Do they have it in

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Speaker 4: them to do it? Well?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, kind of so I'll be honest, like going into

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Speaker 1: this weekend, like Mistuchial said after the match against Real Madrid,

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Speaker 1: he basically said, the tie is over, like Chelsea's like,

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Speaker 1: we're done, We're not coming back to win this, which

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Speaker 1: I think was a little little.

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Speaker 2: Tongue in cheek. I don't know if he truly believes that.

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Speaker 1: But the match against Southampton this past weekend, you know,

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Speaker 1: blowing them out six nothing, I think finally gave Chelsea

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Speaker 1: a little bit of their confidence back, because if you

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Speaker 1: remember before the Real Madrid tilt they lost. They were

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Speaker 1: coming off international break, a lot of their players were playing,

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Speaker 1: you know, with their country during whether.

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Speaker 2: It be World Cup qualifiers or whatever it is.

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Speaker 1: Then they get smashed for one by Brentford and they

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Speaker 1: he said, they looked exhausted. They just didn't look like

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Speaker 1: they were ready for it. I'm expecting a better results

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Speaker 1: against Real Madrid in the first leg, and they didn't

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Speaker 1: get it.

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Speaker 2: We basically they just got Benzimud.

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Speaker 1: You know, he had two unbelievable goals and the third

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Speaker 1: one was on a pretty horrible snake.

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Speaker 2: By Edward Mendy.

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Speaker 1: But overall, I mean Chelsea outshot Real Madrid twenty to eight.

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Speaker 1: Twenty four touches in the penalty are compared only eight

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Speaker 1: for Real Madrid. Now, game state kind of this matter.

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Speaker 1: Real Madrid kind of just sat off after they went

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Speaker 1: up to nothing. But what we've seen from Real Madrid

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Speaker 1: in the Champions League and especially the group stage match

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Speaker 1: against Inter comes to mind. In the first leg against PSG,

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Speaker 1: I imagine they're going to play very, very conservative with

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Speaker 1: a two goal lead, They're not really going to be

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Speaker 1: that aggressive. I mean, I mean Real Madrid the first

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Speaker 1: leg only had sixteen progressive passes compared to forty eight

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Speaker 1: for Chelsea. So I find it really hard to imagine

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Speaker 1: that they're not going to have some similar type game

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Speaker 1: plan where they're just going to play uber conservative and

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Speaker 1: just try to get through to the semifinals. So I

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Speaker 1: actually really do like Chelsea. Jronobatt at plus one twenty.

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Speaker 1: I've been projected as a.

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Speaker 2: Slight road favorite in Madrid.

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Speaker 1: I really think the confidence boost from beating Southampton six

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Speaker 1: to nothing this past weekend is going to carry over

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Speaker 1: to the midweeks.

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Speaker 2: So I love the Blues.

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Speaker 1: Jonal Bett plus one twenty to at least get one

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Speaker 1: goal back in this time.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think there's some value in Chelsea to advance.

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Speaker 2: I agree with you. I mean it's crazy. I mean,

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Speaker 2: real Madrid, we've just seen it time and time again.

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Speaker 2: We've talked about how.

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Speaker 1: Much they've overperformed all season long, and what better time

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Speaker 1: to get a lot of that negative aggression back in

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Speaker 1: a second leg.

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Speaker 2: When they're league by three to one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think that's you know, a piece of

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Speaker 4: advice I would give people. If you are confident in

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Speaker 4: Chelsea to get a result here, you take a part

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Speaker 4: of that stake and put it on them to advance

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Speaker 4: eight to one, because if they are going to win

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Speaker 4: this leg, it means that there they should have at

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Speaker 4: least a shot at getting a two goal advantage or

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Speaker 4: you know, winn winning to nil, whatever it would take.

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Speaker 4: And if we look at the long term form of

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Speaker 4: these two teams, let's just if we focus on Chelsea

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Speaker 4: eleven one or two win draw loss in their last

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Speaker 4: fourteen across all competitions in the Premier League since January

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Speaker 4: twenty third, six to one, eighteen goals, four or five

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Speaker 4: goals against and only six total expected goals allowed. So

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Speaker 4: they've been playing really well since the holidays since you

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Speaker 4: know that that kind of scheduled disruption the team around

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Speaker 4: Boxing Day, They've been all over the place too. They've

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Speaker 4: been playing in a lot of different competitions. They've handled

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Speaker 4: it really well. So I think that this team is

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Speaker 4: pretty battle tested in terms of going away from home

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Speaker 4: getting results and do trust them. They won the Champions

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Speaker 4: League last year. They won the Champions League with this

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Speaker 4: manager last year. So eight to one, that's an eleven

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Speaker 4: point two percent implied probability. I think that's pretty low

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Speaker 4: on them to advance. So I really like Chelsea to advance.

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Speaker 4: Taking a shot there, Anthony, what do you see in

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Speaker 4: this one?

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Speaker 3: We've never seen Chelsea in this position under tookle, right,

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Speaker 3: They've never really been behind. They led pretty much the

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Speaker 3: entirety of their Champions League run, or they were tied

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Speaker 3: and on aggregate, they were never behind in any of

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Speaker 3: their knockout stage matches last year. They qualified from the

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Speaker 3: group relatively easily. So this is a new spot. And

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Speaker 3: I was not encouraged by the second half. I know

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Speaker 3: we can read off like the XG and we can

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Speaker 3: say they had a lot more shots, but they had

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Speaker 3: twelve shots in the second half, seven were from outside

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Speaker 3: the box. They only created one actual scoring chance, which

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Speaker 3: Lukaku missed, So that was the time to go for it.

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Speaker 3: They had to go for it and try to get

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Speaker 3: one more back and they couldn't do it. And that

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Speaker 3: was at home. So I'm don't want to swing. I

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Speaker 3: don't want to have the pendulum swing the entirely entire

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Speaker 3: way against me. Right, I was on Chelsea last week.

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Speaker 3: I took them to advance. That ticket still is alive,

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Speaker 3: even if it's barely hanging on, barely breathing. I'm going

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Speaker 3: to sit this one out and I'm going to watch

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Speaker 3: and I hope that Chelsea does manage to pull this

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Speaker 3: off because it would be remarkable. But again, like I said,

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Speaker 3: four point two, expect a goal from the weekend. Where

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Speaker 3: was that They finally you know, took the hand off

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Speaker 3: the handbreak Tuckle did and let them go. Werner I

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Speaker 3: thought was excellent, But I don't think he's going to

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Speaker 3: play in this game. They're not going to have the

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Speaker 3: kind of space in behind to operate like they did

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Speaker 3: against Southampton. It's no coincidence they had three point six

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Speaker 3: against Southampton that was the second most in the tukel

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Speaker 3: Era the last time they played them, so clearly the

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Speaker 3: high pressing and the high line of Southampton is causing

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Speaker 3: specific matchup issues when they play against Chelsea. And so

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Speaker 3: I think we can't overreact too much to one game.

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Speaker 3: But that being said, like, yeah, Benzima could have a

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Speaker 3: bad game. If Benzima doesn't score two World these, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: Chelsea is better than Real Madrid, So I see the

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Speaker 3: point here. I do show a little bit of value

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Speaker 3: on Chelsea, but again I don't want to be more

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Speaker 3: exposed on the Blues here, so I'm probably gonna sit

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Speaker 3: this one out. I still think Chelsea is a better

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Speaker 3: team on the neutral, but again, they just don't have

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Speaker 3: They haven't shown me the ability to go open a

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Speaker 3: game up, Gopher broke and break their structure that they've

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Speaker 3: had under two cole and it's been successful in the past.

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Speaker 3: But again I was expecting after the Havard's goal, like, okay,

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Speaker 3: here comes Chelsea, right, they're going to score another goal,

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Speaker 3: get this even going back to Real Madrid and then

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Speaker 3: really it's anybody's game, maybe a slight favorite for Madrid.

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Speaker 3: But they came out of the second half. Okay, they

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Speaker 3: can see the dumb goal right off the jump, that's whatever.

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Speaker 3: You can toss that out. But then they didn't show

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Speaker 3: me much of anything else for the entirety of the match.

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Speaker 3: They just put a bunch of attackers on and then

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Speaker 3: didn't do a ton with it. So I think Real Madrid,

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Speaker 3: like be just said, more than comfortable sitting deep and

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Speaker 3: Chelsea will create their chances. But can Chelsea really get

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Speaker 3: two on the road. I'm not confident that they can.

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Speaker 3: So I'm gonna see this one out.

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Speaker 4: We'll see, And the other game on Tuesday is a

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Speaker 4: really really interesting one.

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Speaker 2: Bayern Munich.

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Speaker 4: Their minus four hundred at home hosting via Real, our

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Speaker 4: boys plus nine fifty. The draw here is six to

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Speaker 4: one via Real one one nil in the first leg

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Speaker 4: at home and now are only plus two thirty five

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Speaker 4: to advanced Bayern Munich. Spite is three hundred. You could

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Speaker 4: argue that via Real should and will rue that they

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Speaker 4: are not up three nothing from that game a couple

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Speaker 4: unlucky breaks. And I think one thing we touched on

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Speaker 4: before the Byron game and we were approved right about,

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Speaker 4: was you can I think you can throw via Real's

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Speaker 4: La Liga form and everything else they're doing outside of

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Speaker 4: the Champions League out the window when you're breaking down

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Speaker 4: these matches and kind of just handicap what their ceiling

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Speaker 4: is and what their ability is as a tournament team

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Speaker 4: team in the spot and there are this is this

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Speaker 4: is a tricky spot for Bayern Munich because this is

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Speaker 4: going to be a team that is going to be

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Speaker 4: not only comfortable defending a lead on Uni Emory, but

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Speaker 4: absorbing that pressure and then hitting back on the counter,

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Speaker 4: which kind of plays into their hands a little bit.

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Speaker 4: So I like you hear yeah, I think they're they're

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Speaker 4: if you if you're you know, less risk averse play

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Speaker 4: them on the spread, you can play them to advance.

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Speaker 4: I think they're worth the moneyline shock as this game

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Speaker 4: could get out of hand in terms of just like

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Speaker 4: the back and forth, nature could be chaos if Bayern

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Speaker 4: Munich go down a goal and lead themselves more exposed.

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Speaker 4: So this this is just not as straightforward as people

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Speaker 4: will think it will be for Bayron Munich. And you're

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Speaker 4: going to see a lot of people backing, you know,

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Speaker 4: Bayern Munich minus one and a half because they're just

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Speaker 4: assuming that Byron's going to get out of this tie

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Speaker 4: without much of an issue. But the Yellow Submarine is

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Speaker 4: much more complicated than that, BJ Are you back on

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Speaker 4: the Yellow Submarine?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, this honestly, I think that the performance again Spyron

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Speaker 1: Rick was one of the more impressive performances I've seen

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Speaker 1: anybody have against Byron in a really, really long time.

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Speaker 2: Because what happens a lot with lower.

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Speaker 1: Quality sides when they have to face teams like like

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Speaker 1: Bayern Munich or Man City for example, or even Liverpool,

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Speaker 1: is they think, oh my gosh, we cannot defend the

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Speaker 1: type of attackers that they're throwing at us and the

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Speaker 1: press that they're coming out.

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Speaker 2: So we have to sit back really deep defensively.

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Speaker 1: And hope we can hit him on the counter. Well,

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Speaker 1: Vril just said, no, we're not doing that, like we're

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Speaker 1: coming out. We're pressing you high. We're taking the game

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Speaker 1: right to you and we'll see if you can handle it.

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Speaker 1: And Byron can really honestly couldn't because you can make

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Speaker 1: the argument that Byron had. You know, I went back

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Speaker 1: and watched the game. They had one really really big

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Speaker 1: chance that I think should have gone in across the

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Speaker 1: Lewandos because that is just outside of his foot. But

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Speaker 1: other than that, Viril had multiple breakaways trying to hit

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Speaker 1: Bayern Munich on the counter, and I think it it

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Speaker 1: gives it a kind of a larger perspective what Vireal

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Speaker 1: can do. Like I said last week, they're a team

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Speaker 1: that's not only a fantastic pressing team, but they play

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Speaker 1: through pressure incredibly well. Byron only a thirty one one

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Speaker 1: percent precious success rate in that first leg, and we

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Speaker 1: saw it. We talked about a lot, we wrote about it,

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Speaker 1: or you know, talked about a lot of last season

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Speaker 1: where Byron really struggled in transition defense under hansa Flick. Well,

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Speaker 1: they decided to play back to Upa mcconno and Lucas Hernandez,

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Speaker 1: who's traditionally more of a left more of a left back,

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Speaker 1: because they wanted to get Alfonso Davies on the pitch

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Speaker 1: and they sat Nicholas sue, well that to those two type,

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Speaker 1: that two playing haven't really played together that much. I

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Speaker 1: mean up McConnell's been really out of form, hasn't really

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Speaker 1: saw the field that much. So it was interesting, like

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Speaker 1: the Vreel definitely took it to them, and I could have,

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Speaker 1: like you said, Michael, could I think they could have

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Speaker 1: gone five nothing, honestly, they had so many breaks going forward.

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Speaker 2: But you mentioned it.

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Speaker 1: It's a team that's very, very comfortable playing defensively because

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Speaker 1: they play out of four to four to two. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they're only allowing around one point zero five non penalty

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Speaker 1: expected goals per ninety minutes.

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Speaker 2: And they're really good.

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Speaker 1: Offensively playing out of a four to four too. You know, traditionally,

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Speaker 1: when you think of a four to four to two,

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Speaker 1: you think, all right, it's be uber defensive.

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Speaker 2: You know you're not gonna see much offense.

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Speaker 1: But playing out of it this season, they're at one

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Speaker 1: onero point nine x g per ninety minutes when playing

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Speaker 1: out of the four to four to two. So Bayern

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Speaker 1: defensively obviously has put up great numbers this season, but

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Speaker 1: against the top six teams in the Bundesliga, allowing around

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Speaker 1: one point two.

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Speaker 2: Xg per match against them. So I know that sounds

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Speaker 2: like a little number, but for Bayern Munich that's actually

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Speaker 2: quite high. So I am with you.

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Speaker 1: What I am going to do though, is I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be taking Vireal, you know, plus one and a half

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Speaker 1: right now, sitting at plus one twenty plus two is

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Speaker 1: at minus.

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Speaker 2: One thirty five.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait until Tuesday because I really think that

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna buy into the fact that I do believe

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Speaker 1: that people are just gonna blindly kind of bet Byron

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Speaker 1: Munich to get back in this tie. And I think

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Speaker 1: I can get Vireal at a good number at plus two,

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Speaker 1: but I'll honestly take them plus one and a half

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Speaker 1: at anything plus money in case they get steamed. So

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Speaker 1: I'll be very interesting to see where the market is

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Speaker 1: because Bayern Munich actually went the opposite way in the market.

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Speaker 1: They opened around minus one eighty and by match time

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Speaker 1: it was minus one sixty five there's some minus one

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Speaker 1: sixties out there, so you might it might swing the

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Speaker 1: other way, like people might buy into Vireal. Who knows,

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Speaker 1: But I'm gonna be very interest to see where the

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Speaker 1: market goes in this one. I'm definitely gonna end up

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Speaker 1: playing the real just trying to wait for a better number.

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Speaker 4: Yeah may. I mean we've we've seen it now that

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Speaker 4: with this team, their ability to to just handle these

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Speaker 4: these one off situations. For this is the second year, right,

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Speaker 4: like they were able to navigate Arsenal and man United

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Speaker 4: to win the Europa League and the semifinals and the finals.

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Speaker 4: And you think about their last knockout round fixed year,

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Speaker 4: which was against Juventus. They held them to and Juventus

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Speaker 4: this season is tears below Byron Munich, but still they

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Speaker 4: held them to one point six expected goals over two legs,

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Speaker 4: and the game staying in that second leg should have

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Speaker 4: put the onus on Juventus to create because they were

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Speaker 4: at home and should have had an easier time with

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Speaker 4: an underdog with the reel, and they didn't. So, I mean,

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Speaker 4: this team just might be the kind of budding Atletico

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Speaker 4: Madrid like team that's just nobody's gonna want to play

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Speaker 4: in tournaments for the next decade if Unyami six around.

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Speaker 4: And I do think Anthony, you'll touch on this with

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Speaker 4: your point, like, I think this game has goals written

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Speaker 4: all over it, and I don't think those goals are

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Speaker 4: just coming from Bayern Munich.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I agree. I took both teams to

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Speaker 3: score minus one twenty. I like that. I also leaned

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Speaker 3: toward via Real. I will have a full preview up

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Speaker 3: on Monday afternoon on the site, So I'm writing about

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Speaker 3: this game again. The Yellow Submarine. It was incredibly impressive, Bjay,

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Speaker 3: and I think you touched on it with your point.

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Speaker 3: You may initially when you said, you know, Virial didn't

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Speaker 3: just sit that deep and then defend for their lives

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Speaker 3: in their own penalty area. By only had eighteen box entries.

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Speaker 3: If you combine crosses, passes and carries, Vi're out fourteen.

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Speaker 3: Given the Virial led that game for eighty three minutes,

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Speaker 3: that's pretty remarkable and like you said, could have had

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Speaker 3: two or three goals. The concern here is whether or

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Speaker 3: not Bayern is going to have Gretzka back because this

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Speaker 3: musiala at center mid thing is not working. I was

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Speaker 3: stunned when Gretzka didn't play because he played at the

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Speaker 3: weekend before and then he he played against Osburg this

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Speaker 3: weekend or last weekend rather two days ago. So why

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Speaker 3: didn't he play on Tuesday? What was not what's been doing?

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Speaker 3: Because they've now played in the last month and a half.

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Speaker 3: They've played Leipzig with a Taliso Kimmick midfield and in

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Speaker 3: that game they allowed over two expected goals. They played

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Speaker 3: a Kimmick Musiela midfield against Hoffenheim. They can see it

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Speaker 3: one point six expected goals. They played a Kimick Muller

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Speaker 3: midfield against Bochum. We all know they lost that match

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Speaker 3: four two, and then they did a Musiela Kimmick midfield

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Speaker 3: against Leverkusen and they can see it one point eight.

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Speaker 3: So their defense has been really bad and the look

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Speaker 3: like if Byron gets through here, I think Liverpool may

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Speaker 3: destroy them in the semis. I think it's a terrible matchup.

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Speaker 3: We'll get to that later. But the question about Byron,

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Speaker 3: if Kimi Congrts could both play, is their transition defense better.

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Speaker 3: So that was the only thing that kind of scares

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Speaker 3: me here, because I do think Virial's defense can do

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Speaker 3: enough to hold off Byron, even though I do Byron

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Speaker 3: will get one or two. And also Lewandowski's shots have

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Speaker 3: been down. I mean, he only has five non penalty

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Speaker 3: shots in the last three matches since he came back

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Speaker 3: from the Poland World Cup qualifying. It was question marks

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Speaker 3: whether he was battling an injury. He played through it.

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Speaker 3: He had five shots against Sweden, including a pen and

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Speaker 3: then he only has taken five shots in the last

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Speaker 3: three matches, so he's had a bit of a dip,

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Speaker 3: a considerable dip in form, not just finishing off chances

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Speaker 3: but creating them. He has not been getting on the

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Speaker 3: end of shots like he normally does. Now some of

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Speaker 3: that was you know, Byron's been flat, but again, only

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Speaker 3: one point two expected goals. I believe that's the least

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Speaker 3: they've had all year. So it's pretty pretty remarkable. Uh,

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Speaker 3: defensive defensively from Virial, and I think they can do

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Speaker 3: it again. You're probably saying, Okay, why you take both

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Speaker 3: teams to score? Then, well, again, I do think Viial's

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Speaker 3: counter attacking ability will it be able to expose Byron

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Speaker 3: in transition once again, and they'll get on the board

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Speaker 3: in this game. Even if Byron does break through and

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Speaker 3: win this, which I do expect them to do. Even

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Speaker 3: if it's like a Salsburg type game where you know

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Speaker 3: Byron does break through and get two or three, I

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Speaker 3: do think Viria will get one and get back at them.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's gonna be an interesting one to watch

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Speaker 4: from a game state or tactical perspective when the first

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Speaker 4: goal is scored or if it drags deep at nil nail,

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Speaker 4: because like I said, I think this v a real

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Speaker 4: side is They're going to play a game plan very

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Speaker 4: very well, and I trust Juniamory arsenal legend with with

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Speaker 4: coming up with that game plan for situations like this.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I think it's no secret here that we

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Speaker 4: were all going to be leaning towards Dello submarine, all right.

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Speaker 4: So with that we can move on to Wednesday. We'll

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Speaker 4: talk about at let it Goo Madrid there plus three

384
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Speaker 4: ninety hosting Man City minus one thirty. The draw here

385
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Speaker 4: is plus through sixty City of course, coming off of

386
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Speaker 4: the exciting to two draw their second exciting to to

387
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Speaker 4: draw the season against Liverpool in the game of the

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Speaker 4: year in the Premier League. I think Man United Everden

389
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Speaker 4: was the game of the year, but that's up for debate.

390
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Speaker 4: I guess City is up one nil on aggregate there

391
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Speaker 4: minus thirteen hundred to advance. At Letiko is plus seven thirty.

392
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Speaker 4: A lot was made about at Letty not doing anything

393
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Speaker 4: in the first leg. I think that was by design,

394
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Speaker 4: Like they just wanted to just throw every dice at

395
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Speaker 4: this game, this tie going back to the wander Metro

396
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Speaker 4: Poloitano one nil at the worst, and that's what they did.

397
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Speaker 4: And like I can just see Simeoni being thrilled with

398
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Speaker 4: what's about with this opportunity. So I think that because

399
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Speaker 4: of that, you're going to see the first leg is

400
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Speaker 4: probably going to inflate prices on a on low scoring

401
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 4: derivatives like unders and both teams to score no.

402
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Speaker 2: So we'll see.

403
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Speaker 4: But I don't think that we're going to see a

404
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Speaker 4: similar situation unfold here. Anthony kind of disagree.

405
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Speaker 3: You know, I don't really agree with your point that

406
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Speaker 3: it was a Semilini masterclass. I thought it was Pep

407
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Speaker 3: kind of being too safe, like they had like five

408
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Speaker 3: guys would be.

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Speaker 4: If if he forced the city to be too safe,

410
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Speaker 4: but did he force like did he force.

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Speaker 1: Them or did he make that playing ten dudes in

412
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Speaker 1: the box? Shots were coming from outside. They didn't really

413
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Speaker 1: get anything inside the box fair.

414
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Speaker 3: But again, they didn't send any attackers forward to create

415
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Speaker 3: overloads at all, Like they kept four or five guys

416
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Speaker 3: back every time they attacked, and yeah, if you're attacking

417
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Speaker 3: five on ten, you're not going to score. So I

418
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Speaker 3: thought I thought it was more a matter of Pep

419
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Speaker 3: just being way too conservative in the first hour until

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Speaker 3: he subed some guys on and in a similar.

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Speaker 4: Through, in a similar vein, he probably thinks the same thing,

422
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Speaker 4: which is they're just going to sit back and then

423
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Speaker 4: at this game's this, this is going to go back

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Speaker 4: to Spade one nil in our favor and the game

425
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Speaker 4: is going to be more open.

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Speaker 3: And that's but for an hour. For an hour, it

427
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Speaker 3: wasn't more.

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Speaker 4: Open though, And I'm saying the next leg is going

429
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Speaker 4: to be more open.

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Speaker 3: Right, but they weren't winning one nill until pretty late on. Yeah,

431
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Speaker 3: I know, but I think that they just gave them

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Speaker 3: an I think he's.

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Speaker 4: Just betting on being like, look, we're going to go

434
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Speaker 4: back to Spain where they're going to have to open

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Speaker 4: up at some point, and that is where we should

436
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Speaker 4: come alive.

437
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 3: Or I think that's I think that's a bad bet.

438
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,879
Speaker 3: I think he made a bad bet, is my point. Maybe,

439
00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 3: but that's how made a bad bet, by just giving

440
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 3: away sixty of your one hundred and eighty minutes that

441
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,600
Speaker 3: you have to beat this team that you're clearly, clearly, clearly,

442
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:22,200
Speaker 3: clearly better.

443
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,440
Speaker 4: Though he was forced into making that bed bet by Simon.

444
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:27,520
Speaker 2: I don't know, Ny.

445
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 3: Here's the question question, what changes now that we switch times?

446
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,879
Speaker 3: Nothing is at Lettie that more open? I don't think so,

447
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,000
Speaker 3: because I think if I'm Diego now I come out

448
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 3: with the same approach. I would sit deep for the

449
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 3: first half. Maybe we send a little more forward. I

450
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 3: mean zero shots. I don't care what who your manager is,

451
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:49,640
Speaker 3: what team you're called. If you didn't attempt to shot,

452
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 3: you were too conservative in the game, because there are

453
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 3: too many fluky things that happen in soccer in a

454
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 3: one ninety minute game that if you don't even attempt

455
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 3: to shot. I don't want to hear about master classes.

456
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, But what changes in the second leg? I

457
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 3: don't think that much changes because I do think and

458
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 3: Letty will sit deep. They waited waited out, waited out.

459
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,360
Speaker 3: Maybe take a couple more chances, But I don't think

460
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 3: they're going to be able to because I think Pep's

461
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 3: going to keep the same approach. We're going to have

462
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 3: a ton of the ball death by possession. If at

463
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 3: Letti scores first, at Letti will sit deep in their

464
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 3: five to five for the entirety of the game. If

465
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 3: City scores first, City will just sit on the ball,

466
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 3: and at Letti they're pressing numbers. They're not great at

467
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 3: winning the ball high up the pitch. They haven't been

468
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 3: able to successfully attack good defensive sides for most of

469
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 3: the season. They need four trips into the City box.

470
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 3: In the first match, City only had eleven into the

471
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 3: into the at Letti box. So either way, no matter

472
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,639
Speaker 3: who scores first in this game, I don't think the

473
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 3: game state changes that much. Yes, Letty has to take

474
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 3: more chances defensively, but City also will just strangle the

475
00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 3: ball in the possession with a two goal lead, So

476
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:01,919
Speaker 3: and then if it were to be one one, even

477
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 3: again City holding the ball strangling it. So I'm going

478
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 3: under again, And I'll bet regard of the year was

479
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 3: not taking the under in the first leg by me

480
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:10,119
Speaker 3: I talked about on the pod. I lean that way.

481
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:11,919
Speaker 3: You guys both bet it I think I didn't take

482
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:13,640
Speaker 3: it because I'm a clown. So now I'm gonna hop

483
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 3: in and it's gonna go over. But I'm betting the

484
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 3: under two and a half in this game because situationally,

485
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,439
Speaker 3: I don't see this narrative that it's going to open up.

486
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 3: I don't see either manager really doing that until like

487
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,680
Speaker 3: the last twenty minutes if ed Lettie's down a goal,

488
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 3: and then by then, I mean it's hard. I think

489
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:32,440
Speaker 3: is the best defense in the world.

490
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,120
Speaker 4: He's the type of manager Simeoni where it's just he's

491
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 4: like he when everybody thinks he's gonna do what he

492
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 4: what everyone thinks he's gonna do, he does it, and

493
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 4: it kind of seems like a surprise, Like people I

494
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 4: couldn't believe how surprised people were at what happened last week.

495
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,639
Speaker 4: Like we get to this point in the Champions League

496
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 4: every season and he doesn't though, because it doesn't that

497
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 4: doesn't matter, Like he did the same he does whether

498
00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 4: he he had one shot or three shots or whatever.

499
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 4: This is what he does, Like it's one hundred and

500
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 4: eighty minutes. He's willing to drag his team deep into

501
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 4: those one hundred and eighty minutes and hope, like you said,

502
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:14,199
Speaker 4: something fluky happens. So that's that's what I'm thinking he

503
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:15,919
Speaker 4: was doing there. And I do think that as this

504
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 4: there's a plan here is this is this? The reason

505
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 4: I think it's going to be more open is because

506
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 4: I think that first leg went exactly to his plan,

507
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 4: and I think that eventually this team is going to

508
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 4: start to take some chances as that game is this

509
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 4: second light grows on. Actually, I think the draw is

510
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 4: a bit bet here because because it's one this this

511
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 4: screams one one to me. But as we said, like

512
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 4: this should be pretty low event on paper, the numbers

513
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 4: point to it, and I think a one to one

514
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 4: after or nil nail after nineties is definitely not out

515
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 4: of the question. Plus two sixties pretty good.

516
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 2: BJ.

517
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 4: What do you have?

518
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually like Athleticico plus AFHCAL plus one oh

519
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 1: five because I agree with kind of both that.

520
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: I do think. I think anthonya nail on the head

521
00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 2: is I think that pep.

522
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 1: Yes, he did play very conservative in that first Like

523
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 1: I mean, City only had point nine expected goals in

524
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,639
Speaker 1: fifteen shots, which is pretty inefficient for them. But the

525
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: thing about it is is that they're gonna hold seventy

526
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 1: percent possession again.

527
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 2: I mean that the thing is, I.

528
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: Know Athletico didn't have a shot, but they had two breakaways,

529
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 1: like they just didn't capitalize on. So I think people

530
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,400
Speaker 1: are kind of overreacting and freaking out that they only

531
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 1: they didn't have a shot. I mean, that's just that's

532
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 1: how they were going to set up. That's how they're

533
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 1: gonna play, because I think what happens a lot of times.

534
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 1: I don't think Simioni goes into the match being like, Okay,

535
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 1: we're going to play five guys in the box for

536
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,880
Speaker 1: the entire match. I think as the match was kind

537
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 1: of going on, they kind of realized that, Okay, we're

538
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:38,439
Speaker 1: not gonna have much of the ball here. It's going

539
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 1: to be very difficult to play through their pressure. Let's

540
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 1: not leave ourselves exposed. Let's sit deep, let's try to defend.

541
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 1: We know that we can keep them out of the

542
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 1: middle of the pitch. And they just let debrun And

543
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 1: sneak through on one and you know o block. I

544
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 1: think if you gave him another chance that and he

545
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:54,719
Speaker 1: might actually save it because it wasn't that great an

546
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 1: angle for de Bruyna. So I do like Athletico and

547
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 1: this said they they'll have to play more aggressive. I

548
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 1: mean they have to at some point in the match,

549
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 1: So I think you'll see kind of a little more

550
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 1: aggression with kind of so much to the Man United

551
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 1: type match. But again, I don't think they're gonna have

552
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 1: much of the ball, so I think we're gonna see

553
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: Pep play incredibly conservative. And also the emotional factor has

554
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 1: to be weighing on Man City a little bit. I mean,

555
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 1: coming off the huge match against Liverpool, another Champions League tie, like,

556
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 1: that's a lot to go through in just such a

557
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 1: short amount of time.

558
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 2: So if you have to ask Pep like.

559
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:33,679
Speaker 1: Hey, this is going to be zero zero basically for

560
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 1: the whole ninety Like you're not gonna allow buy Man chances, say,

561
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,640
Speaker 1: I think he'd sign up for that in like an instant.

562
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 1: So I don't think you'll see Man City getting a

563
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 1: ton of high quality chances inside of Athletico's box. Like

564
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,199
Speaker 1: if you said, I mean, this might be nothing for

565
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 1: sixty minutes and then Athletico's like, Okay, we got to

566
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 1: turn it on, we got to go forward, we got

567
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 1: to try and at least do something. But again, I

568
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,679
Speaker 1: think City is going to be ultra conservative and not

569
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: allow them to do that. So I don't think they're

570
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 1: gonna be, you know, sending a bunch of guys forward

571
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 1: trying to make penetrating passes through the middle and then

572
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 1: just leaving themselves wide open to go for because Athletico,

573
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 1: even though they didn't do it in the first leg

574
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 1: a City I had like an over a forty percent

575
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 1: pressure success success rate. I mean, Athletico is fourth in

576
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 1: in Spain and offensive pass per defensive action, so they

577
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: can play through pressure. I just, you know, I just

578
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 1: don't see how this anthey' said. I just don't see

579
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 1: how this match is not going to end in like

580
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 1: a zero zero draw or even maybe one one. So

581
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: I do like Athletico at you know, plus half a

582
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 1: goal plus one five. I have two point three goals projected,

583
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:35,199
Speaker 1: so under two a half goals and MIUS one twenty from

584
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 1: a projection standpoint, there's not much value. But I do

585
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 1: agree with the Anthony defferent situational standpoint that.

586
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:40,639
Speaker 2: That does have some values.

587
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: I'll probably end up playing that, And if you want

588
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 1: to play under two and a half goals in MIUS one twenty,

589
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 1: you might want to play it right now, as you're

590
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 1: listening to this because I could see a big time

591
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: scenario where that's minus one forty minus one forty five

592
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 1: by the time we reach Wednesday.

593
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 4: And I think, what you made a good point right

594
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,880
Speaker 4: the City's scheduling spot if this is brutal, and that

595
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:01,199
Speaker 4: I think comes into play with how Simeoni set up

596
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 4: as well. Like you think he goes to the ATIATI

597
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,119
Speaker 4: knows that they have to play them, then they got

598
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 4: to play Liverpool, then they have to play them again,

599
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 4: and they have to play Liverpool again, Like this is

600
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 4: this is a guy who is he is a sinister dude,

601
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 4: like and I mean that as a compliment, like he

602
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:20,919
Speaker 4: he will use all this stuff to his advantage and

603
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 4: mester some like you know, dark arts of Simoni ball. Yeah,

604
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 4: I mean, I mean even listening to this conversation like

605
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 4: makes me i'm i'm I like the draw. But Athletico

606
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 4: is over seven to one to advance, and it's just

607
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 4: this team is good. This is one of the best

608
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 4: twelve teams in Europe. And I know City are the

609
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 4: best team in Europe or one of the two or

610
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 4: three best teams in Europe, depending on who you ask.

611
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 4: So it's it's it is a really tempting price.

612
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 1: But I might do like a same game parlay of

613
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 1: like under two and a half correct score zero zero

614
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: athletic co plus half a goal and just see if

615
00:27:59,200 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 1: all zero.

616
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 4: Zero, it's a fascinating one.

617
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 3: No goals to be scored is ten to one? Little

618
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 3: cheap again, better number than that, So I'm not quite there. Yeah,

619
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 3: you know, we'll get more into the goal scoring props.

620
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 3: We don't have shot number props or possession props or

621
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,239
Speaker 3: anything yet as of Sunday night. I'm guessing we'll get some.

622
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 3: What do we think the over under for shots by

623
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 3: Atletico Madrid is going to be in this match?

624
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 2: I bet three and a half three and a half.

625
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:27,199
Speaker 3: I've got to be higher than that.

626
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 2: It's got to be five. I'll go five and a half, I.

627
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 3: Would say, I would say six and a half. We'll

628
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:32,399
Speaker 3: see what it is.

629
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, there'll be.

630
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:35,440
Speaker 4: Half is sure.

631
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 3: Ye know you're right, You're right, so anyway, we'll see.

632
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 3: But that being said, the over under exact score zero zero,

633
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 3: so under half a goal twelve to one at DraftKings.

634
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 3: I think I might throw a couple of dollars on that.

635
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 3: I think if I if I'm having fun with this

636
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,719
Speaker 3: that that would be the the angle for me to go.

637
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 3: I did bet it last year the first time they

638
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 3: played Chelsea and then it was nil nil until the

639
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 3: seventy eighth or so, I think when Drew scored a

640
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 3: wonder goal for them. So you know, these are letty games.

641
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 3: I understand it has to be more open hypothetically, but

642
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 3: it's all to one. I don't hate that flyer. I

643
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 3: think I might take some Well.

644
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 4: You think about it, it's these two teams, like the

645
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 4: range of outcomes are really not that wide. So that's

646
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 4: one of the probably most common range of outcomes for

647
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 4: this particular matchup under this particular set of circumstances. You

648
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 4: say that though Atletico Madrid Diego Simione Champions League at

649
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 4: that stadium, they always there is some weird stuff that

650
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 4: always goes down. I feel like, whether Tim running down

651
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 4: doing the d slide in the corner or right before

652
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 4: COVID everybody before they shut down the world when the

653
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 4: rest of the world was shut down, they let that

654
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 4: game go on and there are all those fans there.

655
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 4: So yeah, it's interesting.

656
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 2: BJ.

657
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, you have a long shot.

658
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 2: Oh the way, just bring Ba out there.

659
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: Way to my projections work is it's using poison distribution,

660
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 1: which gives you essentially exact percentages of what you can

661
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 1: get for every single type goal result. One thing that

662
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: I'm showing a little bit of value on at Letty

663
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,080
Speaker 1: Goo to win to nothing in regular time, which is

664
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: twenty eight to one. Twenty eight to one is just

665
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 1: below three and a half percent. I'm projecting about five

666
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 1: point two percent on that one.

667
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 2: So if you're.

668
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 1: Somebody who loves chaos and you think that that Lettyco's

669
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 1: counter is going to be able to penetrate Man City's

670
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: back line, that's still without Rubin Diaz, even though the

671
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 1: last few matches they've been incredible, you know without him.

672
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 1: Obviously a post a previously to the Liverpool match that

673
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 1: does have a little bit of value, And I do

674
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 1: think I've had Letty Go plays a little bit more aggressive.

675
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 1: Obviously City is miles better defensively.

676
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 2: Than Man United is.

677
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: But if they come out with a similar game plan

678
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 1: that they had against United and for whatever reason, City

679
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 1: is just off, especially playing on the road, It's not

680
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 1: crazy that Lettyco scores off a corner or and potentially

681
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: then hit them on a counter when it's one nothing

682
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 1: to win this one too nothing. So I like Athletico,

683
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 1: I'm gonna probably I'll I'll definitely do with you Anthony

684
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 1: on twelve on zero zero twelve one. But I think

685
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 1: Athletico to win two nothing in regular time has a

686
00:30:58,920 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 1: little bit of value.

687
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 3: So City is going to score in the third minute

688
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 3: up one no, and.

689
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean, you know, it's funny the thing

690
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 2: about these.

691
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: As I mean this is this is a great you know,

692
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 3: like live under type game as well. Yeah, City City

693
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 3: Live unders. There was one a couple of weeks ago

694
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 3: they played Burnley. They went up two nil in like

695
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 3: twentieth minute and I was looking at it. I was

696
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 3: like four and a half, like that's high. And I

697
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 3: looked at it for a while and I was like,

698
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 3: you know what, now, I'm just gonna sit this out.

699
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 3: I wasn't watching the match, which is always dangerous because

700
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 3: you don't really know, you know, how it's playing out

701
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 3: in XG and shot charts can't tell you everything in soccer, right,

702
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 3: despite what my true belief would be. But you know,

703
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 3: I think this is a good live under game as well,

704
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 3: you know, going live over because oh, nobody's scoring. But

705
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 3: in realality, if there's an early goal. I think Live

706
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 3: Unders is definitely a good look at Letty Coo.

707
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 2: I'm looking on Fandel at Letty Coo in extra.

708
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: Time is thirty eight to one and Athletico on penalties

709
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 1: is twenty three to one.

710
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 4: Just if you want to have some fun, that's what

711
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 4: we're here for. One that won't be fun. Liverpool minus

712
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 4: three sixty Benfica plus now one hundred to draw US

713
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 4: plus four ninety. Liverpool's up three one on aggregate. Do

714
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 4: you guys want to take a guess what? The Benfica

715
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 4: too advanced line is fifty to one, fifty to one,

716
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 4: fifty to one.

717
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 2: Oh man, I didn't even know that. Awesome.

718
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, so yeah, of course I'll.

719
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 2: Be Sandwich spot for Liverpool.

720
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 4: Yeah.

721
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 2: I mean it's like I.

722
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 3: Don't bet, do not bet, do not bet?

723
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 2: Fifty to one, nonother fifty one. I mean, I'll be honest.

724
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 1: I think under three and a half at minus one

725
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 1: twenty eighty situationally, it has a little bit of value.

726
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 1: I think, you know Liverpool what we talked about, especially

727
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 1: in the inter tie. I I was one that was

728
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 1: very scared of Liverpool coming out and just not really

729
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 1: carrying the fact that they're up by a few goals

730
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: and just smashing them. This could be another situation where

731
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 1: Liverpool just says, you know what, we're going to focus

732
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: on the FA Cup semi final this weekend against City.

733
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 1: We're already up three to one rad Anfield, so let's

734
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 1: just kind of take our you know, take our hand

735
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 1: off the handbrake a little bit here, so that might

736
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: have a little bit of value. I don't really know

737
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 1: where Benfica's heads are at right now. I mean there's

738
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 1: pretty Liverpool putting the third one in I think was

739
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 1: just the kind of the knife in the time. So

740
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 1: this could be a sleepy zero zero draw, but also

741
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 1: it could be Liverpool five nothing smashing.

742
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 2: I don't really know.

743
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 4: I think about it, like think about the Andrew Milan

744
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 4: matchup right like they came back. I think Liverpool wasn't

745
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 4: at their best. They weren't at the races at all.

746
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 4: And Inner is better than Benfica obviously by good leaps here.

747
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 4: But it's just it's something that's been in my head

748
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 4: a little bit. And City did expose some defensive flaws

749
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 4: like if you and this is how Benfica is gonna play,

750
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 4: and you can't do it because you're not Man City.

751
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 4: You don't have people who can just knock that perfect

752
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 4: sixty yard pass to either your fullback or striker consistently

753
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 4: and beat the high line. But they did give people

754
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 4: a blueprint that this. If you can put this Liverpool

755
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 4: back line under some pressure and then beat them at

756
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 4: their high line, you can score. I don't doubt that

757
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 4: Benfica can make this a little bit more exciting than

758
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 4: people are believing, just because, like you said, this is

759
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 4: a brutal spot again for for Liverpool. So yeah, I

760
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 4: mean a twenty dollars bet at fifty to one is

761
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 4: no big deal. I don't think Anthony yelling at me

762
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 4: to to not do it is going to change my mind.

763
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: But you I'm yelling at the listeners.

764
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 4: Yeah no, it's you're yeah, the.

765
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 3: Game's ben fifty to it's uh, you bet.

766
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 4: You're basically betting will Benfica win two nail And I

767
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 4: don't need it because of the price. It's not going

768
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 4: to happen. But the price is is just pretty bonkers.

769
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 4: I think. I also think that benfit once again like

770
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 4: the I think liver betting against Liverpool or betting Liverpool's

771
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 4: opposition to score first well will continue to pay off

772
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:38,800
Speaker 4: at that decent numbers because they always be the favorite,

773
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 4: and those numbers are kind of too correlated to the

774
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 4: three way money line than they should be. So that's

775
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,439
Speaker 4: another answer way. If you're looking in for a game

776
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:49,399
Speaker 4: that really doesn't have much betting appeal, I think most

777
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 4: people would say so that's why that's where I would go.

778
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 4: If you're less interested in losing an absolute automatic loser

779
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 4: of fifty to one, maybe back that, Anthony. What are

780
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 4: your thoughts?

781
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of agree. I think this is like

782
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,359
Speaker 3: a good live Benfica team, total kind of spot right.

783
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 3: They've got nothing to lose, Like Bjay said, they're going

784
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:10,399
Speaker 3: to go for it the down to it. Probably will

785
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 3: concede a goal or two here, But I don't think

786
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 3: their attack was bad. I thought, you know, there was

787
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 3: like a fifteen to twenty minute stretch maybe early second half.

788
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 3: But Ifika got the goal and they got in behind

789
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 3: again almost scored, there was a clear penalty shout that

790
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 3: I was surprised if I didn't even see even to

791
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 3: care about. I thought, Nunia has got taken down there

792
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 3: in the box, so there's paths here for Benfica to

793
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 3: create some chaos. The thing is the numbers not there.

794
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 3: It's minus one sixty to score, which I was stunned by,

795
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 3: Like I thought it was going to be much lower

796
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 3: and cheaper. But clearly the market is pricing in the

797
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 3: fact that Benfica's kind of going for it, and it's

798
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 3: the second leg which could be which should be more open.

799
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 3: The first leg was so open too, so I think

800
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 3: with Liverpool potentially being flat, if they come out and

801
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 3: say the first thirty minutes and Benfica hasn't quite scored yet,

802
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 3: I do think this Liverpool defense can get broken open.

803
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 3: And I think, you know, City found a lot of

804
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 3: success in that channel between Robertson and whoever they play

805
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 3: next to Vandyke, depending on who it is. I think

806
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 3: Benfica they did the same thing to Iax and that's

807
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 3: why they got the first goal. The only goal in

808
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 3: the last match was getting too that same channel. So

809
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,879
Speaker 3: I think there's a chance here that Benfica does get

810
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 3: on the board. But again I'm not laying minus one

811
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 3: sixty on it. If it gets to plus two itt

812
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 3: like minus one thirty, I'm taking Benfica. But it's not there.

813
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 3: It's minus one fifty five, so that I don't imagine

814
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 3: we'll see Liverpools team, but we'll see. But with it

815
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 3: being a flat spot, I do think Benfica scores. I

816
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 3: think Liverpool probably wins, but in terms of the number,

817
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 3: it's a lean to Benfica. Again, just not quite there

818
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 3: for me to play it. Like you know, it wasn't

819
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 3: there last week. It's still really not quite there with

820
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 3: the market not liking this team so or not showing

821
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 3: them enough. So I am overall passing pre game on

822
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 3: this one, but I'm excited to watch it. I think

823
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 3: it'll be more entertaining if you're you know, if you're

824
00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 3: a neutral and you don't really care, like watch this,

825
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 3: don't watch.

826
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:03,839
Speaker 2: Oh stop, come on, you're out of your top.

827
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 1: You just you know, it's it's the younger generation that

828
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 1: wants to just see offense and where.

829
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 2: Generation actually appreciates teams to play.

830
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:17,880
Speaker 3: The defensive strategy. But you got to give me one shot.

831
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 4: What's the difference, because if it was if you got

832
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 4: you one shot, you would say he only took one shot.

833
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 3: That's not true.

834
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 4: There's no there's no pleasing you. Guys. If if if

835
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,799
Speaker 4: you you can come into uh you can win a

836
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 4: soccer match. You can win a two legs soccer match

837
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 4: in a million different ways, and against Manchester City, nine

838
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,879
Speaker 4: hundred and ninety nine thousand, nine hundred and ninety nine

839
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 4: of those are taken out from you because they're just

840
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 4: much much better than you, So why not play to

841
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,959
Speaker 4: your strength? And that's what they did and they're still

842
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 4: live in the shot the going back home, So I mean,

843
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 4: he used he it was a situational thing, I think,

844
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 4: and just fantastic. We love Simioni on the show.

845
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean if you asked him before the match,

846
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 1: like not going to tell you what the statistics are,

847
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,360
Speaker 1: but you're walking away here with a one mill defeats,

848
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 1: do you take that ten times out of ten?

849
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 2: You take that and go back home and you take

850
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 2: a shot and it.

851
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 4: Does not matter how you get there, because guess what

852
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 4: matter when they go when it's if it's one, if

853
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 4: they win one nil at Wanda Metropolitano on Wednesday, they're

854
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 4: not going to say, you know what city goes through

855
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:23,240
Speaker 4: because they didn't play. They didn't get Anthony his his

856
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 4: needed x G charts is or ex G total that

857
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 4: is pre recordite x GE total. Anyways, let's let's talk

858
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:31,359
Speaker 4: about the Europa League for.

859
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 3: It did not maximize their chances of winning. Neither manager

860
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:36,399
Speaker 3: did in the last match. That's my opinion. I'll take

861
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 3: it to the grave. I'll be the only person who

862
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 3: says that maybe.

863
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 4: You're no, You're with every everyone's everyone's saying. That's everyone

864
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 4: saying that everyone.

865
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 3: Their chances of winning the match match by expecting your

866
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,839
Speaker 3: defense to be perfect and not giving your offensive chance

867
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 3: to bail out your defense.

868
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 2: They breakaways, they just didn't capitalize on them. They didn't

869
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 2: get a shot off they had they had a chance.

870
00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 2: It's not like they just didn't do anything.

871
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 1: They actually he had chances going forward, They had a couple,

872
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 1: they just didn't capitalize.

873
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 3: There is crazy right now how low it is they had.

874
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 2: But this is what they were going to do.

875
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 3: He had four defenders back against Felix or Griaisman was

876
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 3: running in the open field. Who's who's on the wrong

877
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 3: because look here's I don't want to sound like I'm

878
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 3: some anti Letti guy, like I've bet on them.

879
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 4: I I have.

880
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 3: I have bet on them more than I bet against

881
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:31,400
Speaker 3: them this season. I just podcast you have been generally

882
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,360
Speaker 3: thought they were undervalued, but I think it needs to

883
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 3: be said that neither manager and this is not just him,

884
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 3: it's Pep two Pep in his ridiculously conservative approach, which

885
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 3: of course played into the fact that Leedy didn't take

886
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 3: a shot that matters too. I started with criticizing Pep.

887
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 3: Neither manager maximiza chance of winning. Pep did not take

888
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 3: his talent, a clear talent advantage into consideration by maximizing

889
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:05,839
Speaker 3: his scoring chances and perfect game, which doesn't happen most

890
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 3: times in soccer. There was a mistake or two, they

891
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 3: broke through and they scored.

892
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 4: I think that. Look at BJ and I both know

893
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 4: that if Athletic Go came back to Spain down three

894
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 4: nil for to one, you would be criticizing him for

895
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 4: not setting up the way he did and me and

896
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 4: him would be saying, look, he made a mistake. He

897
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 4: should have done it.

898
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:30,760
Speaker 2: But so yeah, you know, you'd be like, man, bloody

899
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 2: co looked bad. You know, that exposed. They got caught

900
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 2: forward a few times, Like what do you think going

901
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 2: into shots? It wasn't that good.

902
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 3: There there is a balance. Look, they had just played

903
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 3: an open, high pressing game. But yeah, like yeah, but

904
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 3: there is a balance between we're gonna sit deep and

905
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:51,880
Speaker 3: do no attacking, and we're gonna do a little bit

906
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:52,800
Speaker 3: of attacking.

907
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 4: Like even a little bit.

908
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 3: Again, they went down a goal still didn't take a shot.

909
00:40:58,120 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, but they didn't.

910
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 3: It's not like it's not like because look, if they

911
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 3: went down.

912
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,720
Speaker 4: Two goals, then maybe we were just saw some shots.

913
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 1: But right, well, it's also like they gave up the

914
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 1: goal in the seventieth minutes. It's not like they gave

915
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 1: the goal in the fifth minute and just sat back

916
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 1: like this is the game from the beginning, and then

917
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 1: in the final twenty minutes they tried to at least

918
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 1: somewhat go forward and then they were they did really.

919
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 3: Really didn't though, Like City was closer to two then.

920
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, they saw the writing. They just said, you know what,

921
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:24,840
Speaker 1: let's just let's just take the one nol. It was.

922
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 4: It was a fabulous managerial display from Simeoni getting his

923
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 4: team back one nil down to the best team in

924
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 4: the world real quick. Because we spent a lot of

925
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 4: time talking about uh the Semiony master class, bjuh your

926
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 4: favorite Europa League Bet.

927
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll go out a lot to pick or Dronto

928
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:45,840
Speaker 1: Bett and minus one twenty you know, the expected goals

929
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,960
Speaker 1: final against Leipzig was two point five and one point four,

930
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 1: but there was a penalty in there for Leipzig, and

931
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 1: if you actually dig through the numbers, I thought Adelanta

932
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 1: was the better side for large stretches of that match.

933
00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 2: Uh. You know, we've talked about the Leipzig performance.

934
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 1: We're up to, you know, eleven matches unbeaten, thirty goals

935
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 1: off of seventeen expected. They did it once again this

936
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 1: weekend against Hoffenheim three goals off of one point three expected.

937
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,919
Speaker 1: But at Alanto outshot them twenty to twelve, out touched

938
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:14,920
Speaker 1: them in the penalt area forty to twenty six.

939
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 2: Like it was actually a pretty good performance. Now I

940
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:17,959
Speaker 2: get to go home there.

941
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 1: I mean I have a at Alant to project it

942
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 1: at plus one on seven, So I mean I'm a

943
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 1: little higher on Alanto than the rest of you know,

944
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 1: projection models in the market is. But when you factor

945
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 1: in that essentially expect to goal defenser for the season

946
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:34,360
Speaker 1: and these two teams are essentially even from their domestic performance,

947
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:37,439
Speaker 1: you give Italy a you know, Italy and Germany are

948
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: pretty close. You'd give Italy a little bit more of

949
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:42,799
Speaker 1: an advantage than Germany in terms of UEFA coefficients and

950
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 1: then you give at Alant to the home field advantage.

951
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 1: I think this is a really good spot for them,

952
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 1: so ad a lot to you know, Jono bad at

953
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 1: minus one twenty I do think has some value at

954
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 1: the RB Leipsig over performance. You know, it's got to

955
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:56,320
Speaker 1: end at some point, and I think this is a

956
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 1: good spot on the road to bet against it.

957
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 4: Anthony, what about you?

958
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'll stay in the same match and

959
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 3: we can touch on the other ones if BJ has

960
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 3: anything else but the highlight match at Alanto Leipzig one

961
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 3: of the best soccer matches I've watched all year. I mean,

962
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:11,879
Speaker 3: it was probably in the top ten. There were not

963
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 3: just the expected goals, there were chances galore, Leipzig missing

964
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 3: the penalty, penalty gets saved, the rebound gets saved, and

965
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 3: then the ball goes out for a throwin. They throw

966
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 3: it in, cross it and they score off the cross

967
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 3: to tie it at one one.

968
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:27,279
Speaker 1: It was.

969
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:29,879
Speaker 3: It was an incredible sequence. And then the last ten

970
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 3: minutes Leipzig a massed a lot of expected goals. In

971
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 3: the last ten minutes of that game went at Alanta

972
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:36,840
Speaker 3: on the road was just kind of sitting for the

973
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:39,359
Speaker 3: tie and playing for the tie. They had a bunk

974
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 3: geared off the line. They had unbelievable save. But I

975
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 3: agree with BJ's point they were the better team for

976
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 3: majority that match. The thing is that I do show

977
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 3: a little bit of value. I'm not quite on the

978
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 3: number that BJ was I did have at a ont

979
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 3: for the first leg. I show a little bit of

980
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:53,839
Speaker 3: value on the second leg, but I like another bet

981
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:55,840
Speaker 3: a lot more. And it's both teams to score in

982
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 3: over two and a half. Because I don't see any

983
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:01,920
Speaker 3: way this game is not equally back and forth. I

984
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 3: don't know how it didn't go over. Last week there

985
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 3: were four posts, three posts and a crossbar, including leips

986
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 3: and hitting across bar in stoppage time. At Alanta hit

987
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 3: the post in both halves. Lips to hit the post

988
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 3: in the first half, so it was just a crazy

989
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 3: back and forth, and it kind of is how both

990
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,359
Speaker 3: teams want to play in their natural game states. At

991
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 3: Alanta will be at home, they'll have more of the ball.

992
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:24,800
Speaker 3: Leipstick will be able to play more on the counter.

993
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 3: They're very effective there. I think this is back and forth.

994
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 3: I know last week only had two goals. I think

995
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 3: this one goes over so I'm taking both teams to

996
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 3: score over two and a half minus one hundred, so

997
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 3: even money there. I do think this is going to

998
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 3: be a fun one. I'm very excited for all Right.

999
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,280
Speaker 4: With that, let's just move on to our favorite bets

1000
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:44,399
Speaker 4: for the Champions League quarter finals, the second legs. These

1001
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:48,359
Speaker 4: are taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday. BJ. Let's start

1002
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 4: with you, Yago.

1003
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 1: Chelsea drawn obetta plus one twenty against Real Madrid. I mean,

1004
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:55,840
Speaker 1: Chelsea obviously is down three to one on aggregate, but

1005
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 1: I didn't think.

1006
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 2: They were actually that horrible in that first leg.

1007
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:01,479
Speaker 1: As we've said, they just got Benzimud. You know, the final,

1008
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 1: the last three goal was off of the stake. Benzama

1009
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:06,479
Speaker 1: had two incredible headers. But Chelsea, even though they lost

1010
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,760
Speaker 1: the expected goals battle, twenty four touchs in the penalty

1011
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 1: ic for only eight for Real Madrid. Real Madrid only

1012
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:14,600
Speaker 1: had sixteen progressive passes compared to forty eight for Chelsea.

1013
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 1: Chelsea's got a goal for this one. And also, I

1014
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 1: think the performance against Southampton this past weekend where they

1015
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 1: won six nothing finally got their confidence back. If you

1016
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 1: remember what happened before the Real Madrid match, they were

1017
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 1: coming off an international break, a lot of their players

1018
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 1: were playing for their countries. They had a bad performance

1019
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:32,760
Speaker 1: against Brentford, lost four to one. Tuchel said, they looked exhausted,

1020
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:34,440
Speaker 1: they looked tired, and then they go and have a

1021
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:37,200
Speaker 1: bad performance against Real Madrid. I think that performance against

1022
00:45:37,239 --> 00:45:39,320
Speaker 1: Southampton is going to preduce a new life into Chelsea

1023
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 1: at the number at plus one twenty. And for Real Madrid,

1024
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 1: I believe they're going to stay very conservative. You know,

1025
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: if you go back to the last group stage match

1026
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 1: against Inter and then the first leg against PSG, they

1027
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:52,399
Speaker 1: played ultra conservative, basically just sat back for the full

1028
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:54,319
Speaker 1: ninety minutes just looking for a zero zero draw.

1029
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 2: I expect them to do that in this match. So

1030
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:58,280
Speaker 2: I like Chelsea drawn no bed at plus one twenty.

1031
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:00,319
Speaker 4: All right, I'll say in the same match for my

1032
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 4: favorite bet, it's a big one Chelsea to advance at

1033
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 4: plus seven ninety. They're down three to one in this like,

1034
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,320
Speaker 4: so you're hoping for a little bit of a miracle here. However,

1035
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:12,480
Speaker 4: that was just Chelsea's second loss in its last fourteen matches,

1036
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:15,919
Speaker 4: and over those fourteen matches, thirty goals for fourteen goals

1037
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:18,879
Speaker 4: against and as BJ said one of those losses came

1038
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,239
Speaker 4: on the heels of an international break where a lot

1039
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:23,400
Speaker 4: of players were all over the place playing in highly

1040
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 4: emotional World Cup qualifiers. They come back and they lose

1041
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,880
Speaker 4: to an inform Brentford team. It looks ugly. Follow that

1042
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 4: up with the loss to Real Madrid, and all of

1043
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:34,439
Speaker 4: a sudden, you're getting yourself a recipe to buy low

1044
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 4: on a team that you shouldn't ever have to buy

1045
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 4: low on because they are in great form and I'm

1046
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 4: willing to trust their overall form since the holidays. They're

1047
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 4: seventeen to seven and three wind draw loss over their

1048
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 4: last twenty seven matches and Real Madrid's form doesn't even

1049
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 4: come close to that. The way Madrid has been getting results.

1050
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 4: As BJ was saying, staying games hope for moment of

1051
00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:00,439
Speaker 4: magic from Kareem Benzema. If Chelsea can eliminate that path

1052
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 4: to success, they are live here at a big number.

1053
00:47:03,640 --> 00:47:05,719
Speaker 4: So I'll take a shot here at Chelsea plus seven

1054
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 4: to ninety to advance to the next round. Anthony close

1055
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:09,919
Speaker 4: out the show.

1056
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go Manchester City Atletico Madrid under two

1057
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 3: and a half goals at minus one twenty Atltico Madrid.

1058
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 3: We've talked about this a lot now has not It

1059
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 3: did not attempt a shot in the first match, but

1060
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 3: that wasn't just a matter of Diego Simone choosing to

1061
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 3: be extremely conservative playing a five to five defensive block.

1062
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 3: A lot of that was because Pep Guardiola also refused

1063
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:34,360
Speaker 3: to take chances with his attack and his defenders constantly

1064
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 3: keeping four to five players behind the ball at all

1065
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 3: times and preventing any opportunities for Atletico Madrid to counterattack them.

1066
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,880
Speaker 3: And the result was no shots, four entries into the box.

1067
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 3: So now we're going on the road to Atlitico Madrid,

1068
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:49,400
Speaker 3: and I don't think a ton really changes in the

1069
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:51,959
Speaker 3: first half hour to forty five minutes of this game.

1070
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 3: Atltico Madrid is gonna sit deep, They're going to absorb pressure.

1071
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:56,840
Speaker 3: They might look to counter a little more, but I

1072
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 3: don't think they're going to be able to break through

1073
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 3: an impenetrable City to defense that is probably the best

1074
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 3: in the world. And at the other end, if a

1075
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 3: goal is scored by either team, whether it's City going

1076
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 3: up to two nail on aggregate or at Letti tying

1077
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 3: it at one point one, at Letti will be back

1078
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:12,720
Speaker 3: in their five to five defensive block playing for penns

1079
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:14,840
Speaker 3: Or City will be up to nil and they'll be

1080
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:16,839
Speaker 3: able to sit on the ball with possession and try

1081
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 3: to keep it away from Atletico Madrid, something they are

1082
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 3: very capable of doing. So my projected value is pretty

1083
00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 3: close to the number, but situationally I'm going under two

1084
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,240
Speaker 3: and a half goals at minus one.

1085
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 4: All right, that we'll do it for another episode of

1086
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 4: Wonder Goal. We will be back on Thursday morning to

1087
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:36,319
Speaker 4: talk about Premier leagues and FA Cup and all sorts

1088
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:39,840
Speaker 4: of other stuff around Europe. For Anthony Dubundo and bj Couneham,

1089
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:42,400
Speaker 4: I'm Michael Leebuff, wishing you the best of luck with

1090
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 4: your bets in the Champions League on Tuesday and Wednesday,