1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,440 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome. 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 3: All right. Here we go there throwing into spect We're 4 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 3: saying it's a catch touchdown that. 5 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 4: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, but 6 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:20,279 Speaker 4: they go to wind. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big banksmall banks. I like to make money. 8 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:25,240 Speaker 3: All right. 9 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabak. 10 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:28,639 Speaker 3: You want to pack. 11 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 2: And we are underway. 12 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:37,840 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel. I'm 13 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 3: your host, Brendan Glasheen. We have Best Bets for Week fourteen. 14 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 3: Week fourteen NFL Best Bets episode. We've got the crew 15 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 3: back together, twelve games eleven on Sunday one Monday Night, 16 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 3: of course, Brandon Anderson, Luke swayin Vegas. Refund, of course 17 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 3: is his other name. And Jill Gallant. I want to 18 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 3: set you guys up quickly. Here Sick teams on the 19 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 3: buy this week Falcons, Bears, Packers, Colts, Saints and Commanders. 20 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 3: We've talked so much about the year of the underdog, 21 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 3: but a big week for favorites thirteen one and one 22 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:16,680 Speaker 3: straight up, that freaking tie ten and five against the 23 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:20,840 Speaker 3: spread in week thirteen, favorites of seven or more, We've 24 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 3: got three of those spots this week in the Bills, 25 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 3: Cowboys and Chiefs. They're a road favorite at Denver, and 26 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 3: Unders continue to hit at a fifty six percent clip. 27 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:33,760 Speaker 3: We had a tough week last week, Jens, so we 28 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 3: got to bounce back here. Sixty two, fifty two and 29 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 3: three for the season. You can find our picks in 30 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 3: the Action Network app on the account Action Network NFL Picks. 31 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 3: You can also find the Sunday six pack there as well. Okay, 32 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 3: as as we get started here. As a reminder, these 33 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 3: guys have not consulted one another. There might be overlap, 34 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 3: there might be contradictions. That's what makes this fun. Brandon Anderson, 35 00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 3: start us off your first best bet. 36 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 5: Well, we will come back to this one again later 37 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 5: in the week because I'm going to Monday Night and 38 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 5: I'm going to start us off Monday. Brandon, you called 39 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:10,079 Speaker 5: this on our podcast Sunday Night. You knew I'd be 40 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 5: going here. I'm grabbing Bill Belichick and the Patriots minus 41 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 5: one and a half at Arizona at Cliff Kingsbury's Cardinals. 42 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 5: Look Belichick with extra time in a coin flip against Kingsbury. Done, 43 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 5: That's it. That's the pick. But I'll flush it out 44 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 5: a little bit more for you, Belchick after a lost 45 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:32,639 Speaker 5: sixty five percent cover rate, Belchick against the NFC sixty 46 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 5: percent cover rate and toss up spread sixty five percent. 47 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 5: And then when he has lost and then is a 48 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 5: seven point favorite or anything less than that, Belchick is 49 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 5: forty one eleven and one against the spread seventy nine percent. 50 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 5: He had a little extra time to think about this one, 51 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 5: and I think that they're going to have the defense ready, 52 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 5: their number three defense dev in the season, Cardinals are 53 00:02:55,560 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 5: twenty ninth offensively. This is a popcorn Backwoods offense. They 54 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 5: have no idea what they're doing, like, they're just making 55 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 5: up plays as they go, throwing bubble screens and please 56 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 5: save us Kyler on a third down. The defense for 57 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 5: Arizona is down to twenty ninth itself the last six weeks, 58 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 5: So if you look at just last six weeks, the 59 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:18,640 Speaker 5: Cardinals are thirty first, second to last in the entire NFL. Overall, 60 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 5: Patriots are a top ten team. Cardinals play success rate 61 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 5: is low offensively, so they're gonna have hard time putting 62 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 5: together long drives. Patriots have a high pressure rate. They 63 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 5: don't a lot explosive plays. Hey, look, we got to 64 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 5: the Kingsbury thing. You know all the Kingsbury numbers. We 65 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 5: like him as an underdog. Usually he's an underdog here, 66 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 5: but those numbers are better on the road. And also 67 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 5: you've heard the staff from both me and Jill before. 68 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 5: You want Kingsbury as an underdog against a coach that 69 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 5: has not won the Super Bowl? Guys who won the 70 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 5: Super Bowl? Bill Belchick a couple times now, So Kyler 71 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 5: Murray only won one of his last ten home games 72 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 5: late season, Cliff Kingsbury in full effect pen and twenty 73 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 5: three straight up from week A forward again Bellichick extra 74 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 5: time Kingsbury. 75 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 2: You had me at hello. 76 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 3: I don't have much to add because if you've listened 77 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 3: to this podcast all year, Brandon has been consistent about 78 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 3: Cliff Kingsbury and Jill. I feel like you're often the 79 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 3: one who goes to the Patriots on this podcast. But 80 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 3: today's Brandon that you know, let's just go to your 81 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,360 Speaker 3: first one because this this is going to take a 82 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 3: little bit for me because see, I'm aware of what 83 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:29,920 Speaker 3: the picks are. You guys don't know, but this this 84 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 3: one is just freaking gross and I'm Honestly, I'll be 85 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,160 Speaker 3: honest with you, Jill, I'm kind of disappointed in you, 86 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 3: but give the pick. 87 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 2: Go ahead. 88 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 4: H Braden, it's a bit off brand. I will definitely 89 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 4: say that for anybody who listens. I have trashed this 90 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 4: team on a weekly basis, and I figured, you know, 91 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:49,720 Speaker 4: if I can't beat him, I'm just going to join him. 92 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:53,039 Speaker 4: And you know, I mean, after I wipe the puke 93 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 4: from my mouth and I regain consciousness, I decided to 94 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 4: lock into bed at FanDuel and take the Broncos plus 95 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:02,280 Speaker 4: nine and a half versus the Chiefs. And again, part 96 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 4: of it is just for me, is I just feel 97 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 4: like this is too many points in a divisional game. 98 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 2: Especially. 99 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 4: The one thing that I have to give credit to 100 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 4: the Broncos for, even if I think their offense is anemic, 101 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 4: is they do have a top rated defense and they 102 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 4: haven't lost by more than this except for that one 103 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 4: one off, weird game against the Panthers where Sam Darnold 104 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 4: ran for a touchdown. 105 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 2: It just didn't point to that. But there's just a 106 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:27,480 Speaker 2: lot of trends as well that point to the Broncos. 107 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 2: To cover. 108 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:31,040 Speaker 4: This is all in Evan Abrams Weekly Primetime or a 109 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:34,280 Speaker 4: weekly betting primer rather on the Action Network. But for example, 110 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 4: like Mahomes above a seven point favorite on the road, 111 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:38,720 Speaker 4: he's one and six against the spread in the last 112 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 4: seven games, and that Broncos and Wilson they're four two 113 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 4: ats is underdogs this year. Wilson is a home dog, 114 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 4: is eight and three against the spread. I mean when 115 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 4: the spread is seven or more. Russell Wilson is five 116 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 4: to zero against the spread. So I just think that 117 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 4: the Chiefs, even though they seemingly are an unstoppable offense, 118 00:05:57,640 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 4: I do think that they will have a little bit 119 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:01,720 Speaker 4: of difficulty move the ball and actually facing a defense 120 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 4: that the Broncos can actually maybe move the ball on, 121 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:07,039 Speaker 4: because it's not like the Chiefs defense is really scaring anybody. 122 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:10,039 Speaker 4: But I will say, if anybody is considering a crazy 123 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 4: money line play on this, I'd just be careful because 124 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:15,840 Speaker 4: this was also what Evans primer. I did not realize this. 125 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 4: The Broncos haven't won on United States soil since September 126 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 4: twenty fifth. 127 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, oh man, looking at the Action app 128 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 3: the more of the bets are coming in on Kansas City. 129 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 3: Sixty eight percent of the bets on the Chiefs minus 130 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 3: nine and a half sixty eight percent of the dollars. 131 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,600 Speaker 3: However on Denver plus nine and a half, and these 132 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 3: are the first two matchups to the two teams because 133 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 3: the league thought, oh, this will be a good little 134 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 3: matchup to save till December and January. That didn't work 135 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 3: out so well. So first matchup of the season Kansas 136 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 3: City and Denver, and Jill, who has bashed them all year, 137 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 3: is turning to the Denver Broncos. I can't believe it. 138 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 2: Okay, let's go to Luke your first best bet for 139 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 2: Week fourteen. 140 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: So my first one is I'm going to go with 141 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions minus one and a half hosting the 142 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings. 143 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 2: And this one at the start of the week I 144 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:07,160 Speaker 2: liked a lot. 145 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: I still like it, but there is a growing The 146 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 1: mush factor is at an all time high with the 147 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: Lions right now, which the mush factor is basically like 148 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 1: everyone is on the lines, and I don't think the 149 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 1: lines have ever gotten this much support. But the whole 150 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: like Minnesota Vikings being frauds and a very lucky team, 151 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: is becoming more and more like widespread known across like betters, 152 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 1: where everyone's looking to fade the Vikings at this point, 153 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 1: which the Jets not covering last week was probably one 154 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 1: of the more excruciating non covers. 155 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 2: I've had to go through. It was just a really 156 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 2: bad beat and it's just another. 157 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: Example of the Vikings luck boxing themselves and to a 158 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 1: win they're making, whether it's a comeback, and they're winning 159 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: by like one score games. The Vikings and TCU are 160 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 1: like basically the two, like they're the same teams and 161 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 1: they both even wear purple. They're just left boxing themselves 162 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 1: into wins. And the Lions are the healthiest they've been 163 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: this year. They are, They've been playing great, they have 164 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: all the momentum, they're at home on turf, which is 165 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 1: always key thing with Gough. But it's really just a 166 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: fate of this Vikings team and backing a Lions team 167 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: that is a lot better than I think everyone thought 168 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 1: they were after the tough start of this season, and 169 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:33,439 Speaker 1: the strong like playoffs are actually within their reach, kind 170 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: of like the Raiders, where like they have hope, which 171 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 1: all you need is hope. And I don't think the 172 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,839 Speaker 1: Lions team will ever give up on Dan Campbell ever. 173 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: But I'll go with the Lions minus one and a half. 174 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 3: Nine of their ten wins are by one score. Eight 175 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 3: points is one score because it's a touchdown of the 176 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:51,079 Speaker 3: two point conversion. Their only win that wasn't was the 177 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 3: opener against the Packers twenty three to seven, and they 178 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 3: did beat this Lions team twenty eight twenty four. That 179 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 3: was a good game way back when on September twenty 180 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 3: fifth head to head, so Kirk Cousins three to nine 181 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 3: and one against the spread and toss up road games 182 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 3: in his career. That's not great compared to other quarterbacks 183 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 3: in history. All Right, that's the first round. Let's go 184 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 3: to round two. Second best bet, Brandon Anderson. 185 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna stick with these division games. You guys 186 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 5: each gave out a division pick. We got seven division 187 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 5: battles this week. I'm gonna go to the NFC East. 188 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:27,439 Speaker 5: I'm gonna take the Eagles Giants under forty five and 189 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 5: a half. I think the Giants lack of talent is 190 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 5: finally starting to catch up with them. Brian Dable amazing 191 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 5: job with this team, has had them at heights that 192 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 5: I don't think anyone really expected possible. But there's just 193 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 5: not a ton of talent on the roster. You got 194 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 5: to have the guys at some point. The offense, especially 195 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,959 Speaker 5: as regressing as the teams are starting to kind of 196 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 5: counterattack what Dable was doing with the offense. The run 197 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,559 Speaker 5: game in particular has slowed down. I think the blocking 198 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 5: on the line has really fallen off. In Philadelphia's defense, 199 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 5: they look themselves again against the Titan. Jordan Davis was back. 200 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 5: I think that that's a big factor and they started 201 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 5: to look cool again. Giants forty five and a half. 202 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 5: They've been under that number and nine out of twelve 203 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 5: games this year. In fact, the highest in there Giants 204 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 5: game is forty nine the whole season, So it's a 205 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:20,559 Speaker 5: pretty good number target for them. Daniel Jones Homeowners lifetime 206 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 5: eighteen to seven and one seventy two percent right there. 207 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 5: So I think we're going to see both teams are 208 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:28,199 Speaker 5: going to run the ball a lot here if you 209 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 5: if you noticed last week when you're watching a red 210 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 5: zone in that early window like two and a half 211 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 5: hours in, like half of the games are done because 212 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 5: so many teams are running the ball like these games 213 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:40,439 Speaker 5: are zooming by. This is that sort of game I 214 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 5: think where it's like, oh geez, we're already oh, there's 215 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 5: only four minutes left in this game because we spent 216 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 5: running the ball Sakuon Barkley and Hurts and this guys 217 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 5: running all game. The Eagles are the slowest second half 218 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:54,839 Speaker 5: team as far as play calling, so they're going to 219 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:57,719 Speaker 5: bleed the clock out, probably holding a lead here. And 220 00:10:57,800 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 5: then in my article, I just I had a bunch 221 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 5: of trends here, so I won't tell you all of them, 222 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 5: but a couple of division trends from. 223 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 2: Week fourteen to forward. 224 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 5: Here you'll get these late division games home underdog six 225 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 5: points or more. Unders in division games are thirty seven 226 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 5: to twenty and three, So that's like sixty five percent 227 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 5: cover rate home underdogs this season, sixty eight percent to 228 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,839 Speaker 5: the under. And then the weather, too, I think will 229 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:24,839 Speaker 5: be a factor here. We know what always is these 230 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 5: December games in New York. Forecasts this weekend is low 231 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 5: forties in rain, So I try to isolate, Okay, what's 232 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 5: a weather game for these division games? So if you 233 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 5: qualify that as six mile hour wind or more, forty 234 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 5: seven degrees are below, so somewhere where the weather is 235 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 5: impacting you. Unders in Division games eighty nine, fifty five 236 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:49,559 Speaker 5: and four sixty two percent to the under. So I 237 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 5: think we get a couple of ways. You get the 238 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,679 Speaker 5: under here. Either the Giants hang and it's kind of 239 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 5: a close, back and forth, low scoring battle. 240 00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 2: We get the under, or you get the under. The 241 00:11:59,160 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 2: way the Eagle cit a. 242 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:02,559 Speaker 5: Game, they blow them out, they dominate, put up a 243 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 5: big number, but hold the Giants to low scoring. Anyway, 244 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 5: still hit the under. So I like multiple paths to victory. 245 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 5: I like the under forty five and a half. 246 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 3: Number three defense number three dv away in defense this 247 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:15,319 Speaker 3: year the Philadelphia Eagles. 248 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:18,959 Speaker 1: I'm honestly surprised it's that for I like, this feels 249 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 1: like way more of like a forty three and a 250 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 1: half type game where this just seems high. 251 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, it did. 252 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 5: It hung tough early in the week, it dropped a 253 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 5: little bit, and now it's bounced back again a forty 254 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,640 Speaker 5: five to forty five and a half. So I think, again, 255 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 5: this number really can only go down if the weather 256 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 5: starts to look nasty for the weekend too. So if 257 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 5: you do like this one, I would encourage you not 258 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 5: to wait around. I think you want to grab it 259 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 5: before it dips down again. 260 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 3: This feels like too for this was a Monday night game. 261 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:50,719 Speaker 3: Maybe you get the forty three and a half, you 262 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 3: get the standalone spot. But the fact it's buried in that, 263 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 3: as Brandon said, seven divisional games on Sunday, maybe it's 264 00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 3: just it's kind of flying under the radar in that regard. 265 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 3: All right, let's go back to jill second best bet. 266 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,839 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna stick with that game, Brandon, and I 267 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:08,720 Speaker 4: do think the Giants can keep it close. I'm gonna 268 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:10,719 Speaker 4: take the Giants plus seven against the Eagles here, and 269 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,439 Speaker 4: I'm gonna roll with them because that's what they do 270 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 4: is underdogs. They've covered seven of eight games as a 271 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 4: dog this year, and their red zone defense it's one 272 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 4: of the best in the NFL. That could also help, 273 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 4: from an understandpoint, lead to more field goals than touchdowns 274 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:28,559 Speaker 4: from the Eagles. And the Eagles we've noticed they're just different, 275 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 4: different team on the road. Like only one game this 276 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 4: season where you could say that I would say like 277 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 4: that they kicked ass, and that was against Washington against 278 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:40,960 Speaker 4: that inept Carson Wentz offense. And I mean, let's be realized, 279 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 4: like I'm a Cowboys fan, this pick is partly just 280 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:44,719 Speaker 4: to kind of rile up some Eagles fans as well. 281 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 4: But I do think the Giants will keep this game close. 282 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 4: Like I'm not going to predict like a g Men 283 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 4: win outright or anything like that, but it is worth 284 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 4: noting like last year they were four point home underdogs 285 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:57,439 Speaker 4: against this team, a little bit different players, but and 286 00:13:57,520 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 4: they went out right and kept the team down to 287 00:13:59,120 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 4: seven points. 288 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 2: I will say as well, from a. 289 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 4: Touchdown prop aspect, Boston Scott is going to be really 290 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 4: popular this week. He scored in every game that he's 291 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 4: played in his career against the Giants, all six games. 292 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 4: Ten of his sixteen touchdowns in his career have been 293 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 4: scored against the Giants, and last week on FanDuel, his 294 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 4: touchdown oddsbred plus seven hundred, So I imagine they're probably 295 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 4: going to be with that narrative baked in, it'll probably 296 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 4: still be around the plus five hundred range for him 297 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 4: to score in this matchup against the Giants. But I 298 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 4: still like the Giants to keep it close, taking them 299 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 4: to cover the seven. 300 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 3: This is the game of the year for the Giants, 301 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 3: right if they want to kind of tell folks, hey, 302 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 3: we're for real. 303 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 2: Folks have been doubting us here lately. 304 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 3: We've been a bit of a skid. 305 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 2: They're legit. 306 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 3: They hang around in this game, I would like to think, 307 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 3: or at least that's how Day balls getting them ready 308 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 3: for this matchup. And this is the first of two 309 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 3: kind of like we were talking about with Denver and case, 310 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 3: first of two meetings between these two teams down the 311 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 3: stretch in the final month of the season. By the way, 312 00:14:56,880 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 3: money is coming in on Giants plus seven and that 313 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 3: under so folks are jumping on that according to the 314 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 3: Action app best bet number. 315 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:06,080 Speaker 2: Two, Luke. 316 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 1: So my second one is going to be Browns plus 317 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 1: six and a half at the Cincinnati Bengals, where Bengals 318 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: are at peak value right now in terms of like 319 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 1: market expectation. This opened at four and now it's all 320 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 1: the way up to six and a half. We might 321 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 1: even see a seven, and the Browns are probably like 322 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: whoa like we're getting like we're buying low in the Browns, 323 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 1: which they scored three touchdowns off of defense and special 324 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: teams on Sunday, and that really doesn't matter to me. 325 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: That's probably gonna be the worst game we're going to 326 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 1: see out of Deshaun Watson like to date. And moving forward, 327 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 1: where you got a quarterback that hadn't played for two years, 328 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: going against his old team that probably had the textbook 329 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 1: out for him. 330 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 3: Sure, erectly's Bengals defense is next test, though, I mean. 331 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 1: And yeah, I mean, Bengals are legitimate Super Bowl contender. 332 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 1: They impressed the hell out of me against the Chiefs 333 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: on Sunday. And it's just you're buying low in the 334 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 1: Browns and historically Cleveland has dominated the brown Stefanski and 335 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: like the last loss that the Bengals had was against 336 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 1: the Browns and that defensive line dominated them in the 337 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 1: Bengals offensive line is getting better, but this is just 338 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 1: like at six and a half, Like this was the 339 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 1: first one that caught my eye on Monday morning. 340 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 3: Joe Burrow z to four against the Browns, two and 341 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 3: two against the spread. But that goes up against the Bengals, 342 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 3: who have been the hottest team against the spread over 343 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 3: the last two seasons. They're sixteen and three in their 344 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 3: last nineteen Joe Burrow was a starting quarterback in the 345 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 3: team is seventeen and three in their last twenty. Okay, 346 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 3: fair enough, you like the value because she doesn't like 347 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 3: this song? Oh my god, no, I mean, hey, hey, hey, Hey. 348 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 2: Hey, influence tech guy. 349 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 3: My goal was to get a little more out of you. 350 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 3: That's all I mean, That's exactly why we're doing this. 351 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 3: Like your reaction is like, oh, DeShawn was awful, Like 352 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 3: the Browns looked awful. I didn't say that game was 353 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 3: All I said was the opponent they're playing next your 354 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 3: face that recently. 355 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 1: Where yeah, where like the opponent they're playing like we're 356 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:15,400 Speaker 1: really really they are peak market expectation where it four 357 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 1: to six and a half is a big move, and 358 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 1: a divisional game against an opponent that has historically beat 359 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:27,440 Speaker 1: them with Burrow, Zach taylorst the fancy with DeShawn hasn't yet. 360 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 1: But like, that's the worst we're going to see out 361 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 1: of them. I'm believer in football Deshaun Watson. I think 362 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,399 Speaker 1: he brings another level of this team. And there's just 363 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 1: no way he can play as bad as he did 364 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 1: on Sunday. 365 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 2: Okay, again, I. 366 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 3: Don't hate it, just okay, Well you said it could 367 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,239 Speaker 3: be the worst he was going to play, and I'm like, well, 368 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:47,160 Speaker 3: they're playing the Bengals. 369 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 2: That's a good defense. 370 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:48,400 Speaker 3: That's all. 371 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 1: It's all. 372 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:55,120 Speaker 3: I'll come around on it, all right, So you're right though. 373 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:58,200 Speaker 3: This is why we do this to understand the full 374 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 3: story of the bet. Okay, let's go to the third round. 375 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson third best bet. Well, great news, guys. 376 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 5: I'm going right back to that game, and I'm gonna 377 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 5: make you happy, Brandon, because I'm on the other side 378 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 5: of this one. 379 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 3: But well, no, really quick too. By the way, I 380 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 3: gave Jill crap I gave. I told Jill he was 381 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:16,159 Speaker 3: a coward for taking the Broncos. So let's keep that 382 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:19,639 Speaker 3: in mind. I mean, that's the Broncos. Jill deserves the 383 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 3: crap he got for that one. 384 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 5: Everybody, all right, So here here's how I'm seeing this 385 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 5: Browns Bengals thing. 386 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 2: I agree. I think that the number moving up to 387 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 2: six and a half it cot my eye. 388 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 5: I was like, oh boy, that that's a lot of points. 389 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 5: If this was the Jacoby Brissett Browns. I love the 390 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 5: spot for the Browns. I'd love just keep us straightforward, 391 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 5: to run the ball, keep things moving. Deshaun Watson, I 392 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 5: think has made the Browns also overvalued in the market. 393 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 5: Even though this line moved, We're gonna come back to 394 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 5: the Browns on my look ahead as well. A spoiler 395 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 5: aware to that. But I think Deshaun Watson, the market 396 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 5: overall is overrating how much he's supposed to make this 397 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 5: team better. Brissette's offense had been playing really well. Watson 398 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 5: really can probably only at best keep them what they 399 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 5: were before, and so far through one game against the 400 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:10,439 Speaker 5: terrible Texans, he made the offense way worse. They scored 401 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 5: six offensive points against the Texans. No, he probably won't 402 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 5: play that bad again, but if it's anything even close 403 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 5: to that bad again, there's still a worse off offense. 404 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 5: So here's where I'm at. I do want to avoid 405 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 5: the Bengals minus six and a half. I think the 406 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,879 Speaker 5: line got too high. I think you're avoiding it the 407 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 5: wrong direction. I'm gonna play the Bengals second half minus three. 408 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 5: So I do think the Browns, who have been a 409 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 5: good first quarter team all year, maybe they come out 410 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 5: a little better. Watson's got that one game out of 411 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 5: the way, get the Houston game out of here, get 412 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,640 Speaker 5: some practice, they come out, get the early script touchdown. 413 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 5: Browns have been a good first quarter team offense and 414 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 5: defense all year. So if you take a Bengal six 415 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,120 Speaker 5: and a half ticket or any ticket like that, worst 416 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 5: scenario is to get out and you're down early and 417 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 5: instantly you're like, oh man, I got to make up 418 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 5: like ten fourteen points out of Well. Here's the sneer 419 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 5: that I like. If the Browns are winning at halftime, 420 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 5: now the Bengals have to go Joe Burrow, light it up, 421 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,160 Speaker 5: take it to this bad Cleveland secondary and come back. 422 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 5: I like that for a second half bet. If the 423 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 5: Bengals are winning, the Browns probably have to abandon the 424 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 5: run game a little bit, clearly the strength of the 425 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 5: offense and say, hey, Rusty Deshaun Watson, who was negative 426 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,920 Speaker 5: a half epa per play last week, go win the 427 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 5: game for us against really good defense. Either way, I 428 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 5: like that script for the Bengals in the second half, 429 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,639 Speaker 5: and I love the numbers here. The Bengals have covered 430 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,920 Speaker 5: nineteen of the last twenty one second half spreads, including 431 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 5: the postseason. Lou Anarumo, the defensive coordinator, makes incredible adjustments 432 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 5: of the half. They barely give up anything in the 433 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 5: second half as a ninety percent cover rate last twenty 434 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 5: one games and since October twenty nineteen, the Browns in 435 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,959 Speaker 5: the second half are nineteen thirty seven and one against 436 00:20:58,960 --> 00:20:59,399 Speaker 5: the spread. 437 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,880 Speaker 2: Thirty four percent cover rate for them. 438 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 5: I have in our action labs we can build all 439 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 5: these trends, and I have one just in there to 440 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 5: remind me every week Bengal second half. 441 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 2: Look for the opportunity if it's there. 442 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 5: And I also have one called fade Brown second half 443 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,879 Speaker 5: into oblivion because always it's good to bet against this 444 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,359 Speaker 5: team the second half when those two lined up this week, 445 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 5: and I like the way the script goes for me, 446 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 5: that's the way too avoid. I don't know who wins 447 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 5: the six and a half spread, I'm going to avoid it. 448 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 5: I feel good about the Bengals covering just the second half, 449 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:32,360 Speaker 5: so I'll do the minus three just there. 450 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 1: And I don't think i've honestly ever made a pregame 451 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,880 Speaker 1: second half bet ever, Like I don't even think about 452 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 1: ever checking them. 453 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,120 Speaker 2: So like props to you where. 454 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: It does make sense because like the middling opportunities, it 455 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 1: could be fantastic with this, and I mean even like 456 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 1: hedging opportunities like at three, like we're more likely to 457 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 1: see a three and. 458 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,920 Speaker 3: A half at halftime than we would three. 459 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 5: So yeah, you always have to when you do a 460 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 5: second half bet, you've got to decide if you like 461 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 5: the idea, do I play it now or do I 462 00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 5: wait and play live? And that's why I lay it 463 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 5: out the script here because we don't know necessarily where 464 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 5: the number goes. But if I like it whether the 465 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,959 Speaker 5: Bengals are winning or if they're losing, in either one 466 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 5: of those scripts, if I still like it anyway, then 467 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 5: let me grab the number now, because like if the 468 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,200 Speaker 5: Browns are up at halftime, the Bengal's going to catching 469 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:27,199 Speaker 5: more points at the half because the books are going 470 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:28,919 Speaker 5: to assume that they're going to make a push here, 471 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 5: so especially at three and with the line rising, Luke, 472 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:34,880 Speaker 5: like you said, if this gets to seven on the game, 473 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 5: this second half line might have three and a half 474 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 5: as well, So that key number matter is just in 475 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 5: a half as well, So I want the minus three 476 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 5: second half. 477 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 3: We're also talking to a guy who loves the Golden 478 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 3: State Warriors in the third quarter, so then's to start 479 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 3: the second half. So this lines up very nicely with 480 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson in a different sport. We're crossing sports briefly, 481 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 3: but it makes some sense. Let's go back to Jill 482 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:57,160 Speaker 3: third best bet. 483 00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 4: All right, maybe another ugly bet, depending on how you 484 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 4: look at these teams. But I'm going to take the 485 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 4: Jets to cover the spread against the Bills. I mean, 486 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 4: there's some tens out there, some nine and a halfs. 487 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 4: You could probably wait until just before kickoff. I think 488 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 4: a little bit more public money will come in on 489 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,360 Speaker 4: the Bills being at home this time, just the way 490 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,160 Speaker 4: the market is moving. But I think this line kind 491 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,040 Speaker 4: of represents what the Bills were like in the first 492 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 4: half of the season, like when they were ten and 493 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,120 Speaker 4: a half point favorites on the road in New York. 494 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,400 Speaker 4: Now you know, you're sitting around nine and a half, 495 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 4: around ten, and the defense for the Bills just really 496 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,680 Speaker 4: banged up, like since that Week eight lost to the Jets. 497 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 4: Like I mean, I think there's a little bit of 498 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,880 Speaker 4: recency bias with how they played against the Patriots last week, 499 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 4: but it's been awful. Like four hundred and eighty yards 500 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:40,800 Speaker 4: thirty three points to the Vikings, you know, three hundred 501 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 4: and ninety six yards and twenty three points to the Browns, 502 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 4: the Lions, you know, went up and down the field 503 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 4: on the I think it was just the Patriots offense 504 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 4: and maybe just remedial offense is probably why they weren't 505 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,200 Speaker 4: able to exploit that defense. But you know, in five 506 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,679 Speaker 4: starts with Mike Whites. You know, since it started last year, 507 00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 4: the Jets offense is around twenty six point eight points 508 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,639 Speaker 4: per game. Every divisional game this year they've won or 509 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 4: kept it within one score. Just a lot of bad 510 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,920 Speaker 4: luck recently. I mean, they had like seven red zone 511 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 4: trips against the Vikings last week and came away with 512 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,119 Speaker 4: one touchdown. They lost on a punt return touchdown to 513 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,639 Speaker 4: the Patriots, Like you know, they just they should have 514 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,720 Speaker 4: won both of those games in my opinion, just the 515 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 4: way that they were playing and moving the ball. So 516 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:22,639 Speaker 4: this isn't more of a fate of the Bills, just 517 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:24,359 Speaker 4: more of a believer of the Jets. I think the 518 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,399 Speaker 4: Jets can keep this game close. I think their defense 519 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 4: is good enough. So give me the Jets to cover 520 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 4: the spread against the Bills. 521 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 3: Josh Allen's been good in December against the numbers seven 522 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 3: to two since twenty twenty. Most profitable quarterback against the 523 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,280 Speaker 3: spread in the month of December. That's courtesy of Evan Abrams. 524 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,680 Speaker 3: But Jill is going with Mike White to keep it 525 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 3: going for the Jets a lotus. 526 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 2: I thought this one was going to be higher too. 527 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 1: Again, This like kind of goes back to the Texans 528 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:49,440 Speaker 1: game that we were talking about last week, because you're 529 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,360 Speaker 1: pretty much we were very spot on like the whole 530 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 1: they're begging people to tease the Browns down, and like, honestly, 531 00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,040 Speaker 1: like you can't. You can't predict the outlier events. What 532 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,359 Speaker 1: happened in that game where I totally thought this Bills 533 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 1: the line was going to open out like ten and 534 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 1: a half eleven, We're at like nine and a half. 535 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,880 Speaker 1: They're like begging for people to like throw the Bills 536 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 1: into teasers right now. Yeah, And I actually I make 537 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 1: this line closer to a touchdown, so I like the 538 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,120 Speaker 1: Jets here. I think that catches my eye. 539 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 5: We talked about Mike White, our man survivor of White Lotus, 540 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 5: famed Mike White. This is the game that Mike White 541 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 5: has waited for that he didn't think he was going 542 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 5: to get because don't forget last year Mike White fairy 543 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:32,199 Speaker 5: Tale story comes in, looks great plays the Bills, four 544 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 5: interceptions and a fumble loss on a strip sack. If 545 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 5: you're Mike White, that basically ended your career, like when 546 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:41,159 Speaker 5: you have that game. He got benched after that and 547 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,119 Speaker 5: never took another snap the rest of the season, or 548 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 5: at least didn't throw pass. If you have that game, 549 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 5: you think that was my shot. I finally got a 550 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,159 Speaker 5: shot in the big leagues. The Bills ended at this 551 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:53,879 Speaker 5: is the team that he wanted to have a second 552 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,600 Speaker 5: chance against. This is the spot for him. So I 553 00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 5: like that from Mike White as well, who's clearly a 554 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 5: two name quarter back. You will always be Mike White forever. 555 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,399 Speaker 3: Makes you think too, coming off that we talk so 556 00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,840 Speaker 3: much about the luck the Vikings have had, say the 557 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:13,880 Speaker 3: Jets convert and their multiple chances and they win that game, right, 558 00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,119 Speaker 3: I don't know that was luck. That was just like 559 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 3: just pure like insanity, like run the ball, like just 560 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 3: like the lost art of the. 561 00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,200 Speaker 1: QB sneak Like I don't know if it's unlucky that 562 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:29,080 Speaker 1: you're just not like you're going empty on third down 563 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:30,880 Speaker 1: on the goal line like that unlucky? 564 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 2: Or is that just like bad. 565 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 5: Decisions just sheer Minnesota Vikings dominance. That's what we're talking about. 566 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 5: The least fraudulent, most dominant, clear Super Bowl winning Minnesota 567 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:44,200 Speaker 5: Vikings who kept. 568 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,920 Speaker 3: And to Jill's point, like you said, this is not 569 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 3: so much a fate of the Bills. He believes in 570 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 3: the Jets if they call the right place, you know, 571 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 3: offensively call the right place, all right, Luke, take us 572 00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,359 Speaker 3: home final final best bet. So my last one's going 573 00:26:59,400 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 3: to be jagged. 574 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:04,359 Speaker 1: Plus four at the Titans, and this this is gonna 575 00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 1: be like Jack's coming off of a tough loss against 576 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,640 Speaker 1: the Lions. I have no idea how Trevor Lawrence didn't 577 00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:12,720 Speaker 1: like break his leg Terry acl or whatever, because it 578 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:14,639 Speaker 1: looked nasty. But he's gonna be playing. I mean, he 579 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,520 Speaker 1: came back into the game and he's gonna be playing. 580 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,679 Speaker 1: But this Titans injury report is looking really grim. They 581 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:25,240 Speaker 1: lost David Long, their best linebacker against the Eagles on Sunday, 582 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,920 Speaker 1: and their only fully healthy corner at the current moment 583 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,480 Speaker 1: is Roger McCray, where at four. I can totally see 584 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:36,400 Speaker 1: this coming down when the injury report comes out on Friday, 585 00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 1: and it could be like really really bad. And just 586 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 1: outside of that, I don't want to say the Titans 587 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:47,440 Speaker 1: are the Vikings for really slandering the Vikings on the show, 588 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,119 Speaker 1: but like they've had some wins that are very like 589 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 1: paper Tiger wins. I just you want to bet on 590 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,560 Speaker 1: Mike Rable when he's an underdog and with them laying 591 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 1: the points. I just there aren't a lot of scenarios 592 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 1: to me that I can see them rating any type 593 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:05,200 Speaker 1: of margin where the Jags aren't within striking distance, and like, 594 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 1: I think they honestly are gonna win out right, But 595 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,360 Speaker 1: this is just going to be backing a Jags team 596 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 1: coming off of a tough loss in Detroit against the 597 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 1: Titans team that is trending downwards in my opinion, outside 598 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:19,639 Speaker 1: of the injuries, are trying to downwards. And when you 599 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,399 Speaker 1: add these injuries that I think we're going to be 600 00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 1: seeing tomorrow, it's going to be looking pretty tough. Jacks 601 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 1: plus four, I would take it now. I wouldn't wait. 602 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,080 Speaker 3: And then they fired the GM this week too. I 603 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 3: forgot about that, Like you know, like that's I know, 604 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,080 Speaker 3: it's one game and I'm not you know, we like 605 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 3: we talked about during the show, recency bias. 606 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:39,600 Speaker 2: You know, you come up blowout loss. 607 00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 3: You know Tomlin Raw raw kind of he's not quite Tomlin, 608 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,960 Speaker 3: but like you said, they're a favorite. Titans have rolled 609 00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 3: historically in their last ten, eight and two against the 610 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:53,480 Speaker 3: spread against the Jaguars. So but yeah, it doesn't this 611 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 3: feel like, Wow, I mean Titans should bounce back this shit. 612 00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 3: This is too short of a line. Trevor Lawrence almost 613 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 3: you know his leg last week, but it was not. 614 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 1: I I'm very squeamish on injuries, having a couple of 615 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 1: myself that were pretty bad, and I saw that and 616 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:10,880 Speaker 1: I likely pull my hand up. 617 00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 2: And then he just gets off, which like it started 618 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 2: in the second half, like it was like nothing even happened. 619 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 2: It's like clean out. 620 00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:20,920 Speaker 1: It brings me back to mac Jones crying off of 621 00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:24,560 Speaker 1: that ankle injury and then just playing being fine. Where 622 00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:26,760 Speaker 1: I trail Lawrence was like an agony and you thought 623 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 1: like his career is over and then he comes back. 624 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 3: Is this when you were the midfield quarterback? Let's go dude, 625 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,240 Speaker 3: you called the super Bowl. I had to hit you 626 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:35,960 Speaker 3: up when I saw you were calling the super Bowl 627 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 3: for mass Chusetts. Long story short, I did the Massachusetts 628 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 3: High School super Bowls at Gillette Stadium and Luke found 629 00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 3: out and he sent me a picture of him at 630 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,120 Speaker 3: Gellette playing quarterback from Midfield High. 631 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, we lost, but it's a good. 632 00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:52,160 Speaker 2: Did you cover. 633 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 3: No? All? Right, before we get out of here, let's 634 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 3: get some Let's get a look aheadline from Brandon Anderson 635 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,560 Speaker 3: looking ahead to week I can't believe him. 636 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 2: Saying week fifteen. 637 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 3: Holy crap, we're moving right along this year. 638 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,640 Speaker 2: Week fifteen. What jumps out to you on fandle. So 639 00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:09,160 Speaker 2: I'm gonna go. 640 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 5: We got our Saturday slates starting up next weekend. Get 641 00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 5: your Christmas shopping done this Saturday because we're out of 642 00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 5: Saturdays after this. We got three football games next Saturday. 643 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:22,600 Speaker 5: Go on Saturday afternoon, another division game. I'll take the 644 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:27,640 Speaker 5: Baltimore Ravens plus three in the Cleveland. We know Ravens Browns. 645 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 5: Obviously that's a big historic rivalry there. I think this 646 00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 5: line is really an overreaction to both quarterbacks here. So 647 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,960 Speaker 5: this game's played six weeks ago. The Ravens were minus 648 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,440 Speaker 5: six and a half. So the Ravens went from a 649 00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 5: touchdown favorite to a field goal dog. A ten point 650 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:49,040 Speaker 5: swing almost, I guess because the quarterbacks. Obviously we're playing 651 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,360 Speaker 5: in Cleveland, so that's part of it. But I think 652 00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 5: it's an overreaction to Deshaun Watson, who we don't need 653 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 5: to talk about again because he has been terrible. He's 654 00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,640 Speaker 5: ten and fifteen and two as a favorite forty percent 655 00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,800 Speaker 5: cover rate. He's only covered three of his last eleven 656 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 5: home games as a favorite and lost five outright, So 657 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,040 Speaker 5: I don't think that we need to bump the Browns 658 00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,880 Speaker 5: up for him, certainly until he proves that he's ready 659 00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 5: to go. And I think it's an overreaction the other way. 660 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 5: Lamar Jackson probably out, so we're kind of pricing in 661 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 5: Tyler Huntley here. I think Tyler Huntley is fine. I 662 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 5: don't think it's a huge huge drop off. Sean Kerner's 663 00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,840 Speaker 5: quarterback rankings had this as a five point drop before 664 00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,959 Speaker 5: the season, but Huntley is three and one against the spread. 665 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,960 Speaker 5: He's played a big role now in six games, either 666 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,960 Speaker 5: as the starter or featuring as the backup early on. 667 00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 5: All six games have been within three points. So all 668 00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 5: six games hit into this range here, and Harbaugh has 669 00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,040 Speaker 5: shown that when he got the backup quarterback, he can 670 00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:49,960 Speaker 5: adjust the script and his playthings really safe, really conservative. 671 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 5: We saw last week against the Broncos. They were terrible, 672 00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,560 Speaker 5: but they did just enough to get over the line 673 00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,960 Speaker 5: literally with the Huntley touchdown at the end. So both 674 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 5: these teams are going to run the we know that's 675 00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,240 Speaker 5: what happened in this game. However, the difference of the defense. Here, 676 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,120 Speaker 5: the Browns are thirty first against the run defensively for 677 00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,959 Speaker 5: the season by dvo Away. Since adding Rokwan Smith the Ravens, 678 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 5: they are the number one run defense these last five games. 679 00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:20,240 Speaker 5: So Baltimore can stop the Cleveland running attack. Cleveland can't 680 00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,680 Speaker 5: stop the running attack. And we're probabing to get some 681 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 5: weather in Cleveland, so running matters more than ever. So 682 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,480 Speaker 5: you got Tyler Henley. I don't really need his arm. 683 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:30,120 Speaker 5: I just need him to run. We know he's a 684 00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:33,440 Speaker 5: good runner. Run the ball. Maybe get JK. Dobbins back 685 00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,200 Speaker 5: by then, heck, we're a week away. You might get 686 00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:39,480 Speaker 5: Lamark Jackson back, and if that happens, this line might 687 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 5: swing across the zero to all the way to the 688 00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:44,040 Speaker 5: minus three of the other side. Even so, I like 689 00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 5: the Ravens AFC North underdogs in division games Week fourteen, 690 00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:51,720 Speaker 5: forward forty twenty one and one against the spread, sixty 691 00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,400 Speaker 5: six percent cover eight. This is the division you want 692 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,720 Speaker 5: to be playing those underdogs, and so I want the 693 00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 5: key number. Gave me the Ravens plus three. 694 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 1: I think Dobbins is going to be back, which like 695 00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:03,400 Speaker 1: for the Ravens, he actually matters and you have to 696 00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:05,760 Speaker 1: think of the ringing him back. He's healthy because he 697 00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:07,040 Speaker 1: didn't go well first time. 698 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 3: All right, good deal, gents, good stuff. That wraps up 699 00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:15,720 Speaker 3: our week fourteen Best Bets episode. Let's recap the picks 700 00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,280 Speaker 3: and then we'll say goodbye. Brandon Anderson is fading Cliff 701 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 3: Kingsbury again. He's on Patriots minus one and a half. 702 00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:25,920 Speaker 3: Also likes Giants Eagles under forty five and a half points. 703 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:31,400 Speaker 3: He's on Bengals minus three second half second half Bengals 704 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,719 Speaker 3: minus three that is available over at Fandel Sportsbook now 705 00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:39,400 Speaker 3: second half line out there. Jill Galant, Denver plus nine 706 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:40,800 Speaker 3: and a half is his first one. 707 00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,200 Speaker 2: Let's ride Roncos Country, Let's. 708 00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 3: Run Giants plus seven and Jets White Lotus plus nine 709 00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 3: and a half. And finally, Luke Swain, he is on 710 00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,720 Speaker 3: the Lions minus one and a half. He likes the 711 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 3: Browns plus six and a half and Jacksonville Jaguars plus 712 00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 3: four and our look ahead spot. Brandon is on the 713 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:06,680 Speaker 3: Ravens for next week. They are at Cleveland getting three points. 714 00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 3: That'll do it for this week's episode thanks to Brandon Anderson, 715 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,719 Speaker 3: Joe Galant, Luke Swain, Brendan Glashan, you all have a 716 00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,319 Speaker 3: great rest of your week weekend, and then good luck 717 00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,400 Speaker 3: on Sunday and Monday and we hope to see you 718 00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:23,000 Speaker 3: guys cash in and have a good week. Thanks so 719 00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:26,080 Speaker 3: much for tuning into the Action Network podcast presented by Fandall. 720 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:28,200 Speaker 3: We'll catch you Monday morning for the recap episode.