WEBVTT - Larry Diamond Talks to Armstrong & Getty 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.440 Really excited about our next guest, Larry Diamond. He's a 0:00:03.520 --> 0:00:07.680 senior fellow with the Hoover Institution, co editor, founding co 0:00:07.840 --> 0:00:10.680 editor of the Journal of Democracy, senior consultant at the 0:00:10.680 --> 0:00:14.040 International Forum for Democratic Studies of the National Endowment for 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:19.480 Democracy China. Right, we're going to talk about China. His 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:22.279 research focuses on democratic trends and conditions around the world, 0:00:22.280 --> 0:00:25.520 and he's just been part of producing a big new 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:30.440 report about the way China is trying to influence the 0:00:30.480 --> 0:00:34.440 West in ways both the savory and unsavory, including the 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:38.240 United States. Looking forward to this, Larry Diamond joins us. Now, welcome. 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:42.920 We appreciate you joining us for the podcast. So listen. 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:47.599 The the current zeitgeist is to hang on every mentioned, 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:52.720 every whiff of anybody talking to any Russians and act 0:00:52.760 --> 0:00:55.400 as though that is self evidently a betrayal of the 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:57.480 nation or a dangerous activity and that sort of thing. 0:00:57.480 --> 0:01:01.520 And I'm not downplaying Vladimir putting An plans, but it's 0:01:01.600 --> 0:01:06.199 funny that no such sentiment exists about our many, many 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:10.040 contacts with China. Well, I think that's beginning to change, 0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:14.880 and uh, we make very clear in this report we've 0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:18.280 just released with the Hoover Institution that we do not 0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:24.160 want to generate or feed a generalized hysteria about China 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:28.800 or contacts with China, and certainly not about Chinese Americans 0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:32.640 or even Chinese visitors in the United States. But they 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:37.240 do have an agenda here to penetrate and sway our democracy, 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:39.440 and we need to wake up to it. And how 0:01:39.480 --> 0:01:44.679 are they going about penetrating our democracy? Well, not as 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:50.200 deeply and alarmingly as they have in Australian New Zealand, 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:55.760 where there's ample evidence of them really having uh penetrated 0:01:55.800 --> 0:02:01.960 politics through campaign contributions and enlisting for the work of 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:07.000 their companies and business people former prime ministers and former ministers. 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:15.000 But you know, they are moving deeply into universities with 0:02:15.320 --> 0:02:20.799 very uh I think unhealthy conditions and lack of transparency 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:24.720 in terms of some of the relationships. When they have 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:29.200 exchanges with think tanks and universities, often they will uh 0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:33.080 eliminate people from the exchange list from the ability to 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:38.200 participate in a conference if they don't like their politics. Uh. 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:41.720 They are very selective, increasingly so in the granting of 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:45.520 visas to journalists and scholars and so on so they 0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:48.399 can send a message that if you criticize China, you'll 0:02:48.440 --> 0:02:52.639 be denied access. Uh. They're getting business people to do 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:55.720 their bid, American business people to do their bidding and 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:01.880 appeal for their policy interests with the US government. Uh. 0:03:01.919 --> 0:03:09.800 They are stealing our technology, uh and uh misappropriating intellectual property. Uh. 0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:15.000 They're sending scientists and engineers to work in university and 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:18.399 other labs in the United States who are affiliated with 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:22.480 or working for the People's Liberation Army and disguise their 0:03:22.480 --> 0:03:26.239 real identity so it looks like they're just honest scientists. 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:28.600 And then you wake up and you find, just read 0:03:28.639 --> 0:03:32.799 the newspaper on a daily basis, whether it's quantum computing 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:37.280 or electric cars or a gene editing or whatever, that 0:03:37.400 --> 0:03:41.640 there's artificial intelligence. They're surging ahead of the United States 0:03:41.680 --> 0:03:44.560 in technologies that will not only determine who leads the 0:03:44.600 --> 0:03:49.240 world economy, but looking over the not very distant horizon, 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:54.240 who will have military superiority. Well, I appreciate your disclaimer 0:03:54.280 --> 0:03:56.880 at the beginning of our chat about not, you know, 0:03:56.920 --> 0:03:59.760 causing some sort of generalized desteria about the Chinese people, 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:03.960 but that sounds like serious concern about serious issues. This 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:08.520 is not ticky tech, you know, trying to gain a 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:12.040 little bit of advantage. This is serious stuff. I think 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:17.560 it's very serious stuff. UH, and so do UH. You 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:22.320 know a significant number of people who have spent their 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:27.240 lifetime studying China, who love China, uh, and who have 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:32.240 joined in this working group report that we just released. 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:36.000 We just need to be what we call in the report, 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:41.159 constructively vigilant. We need much more information, uh, much more 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:45.560 due diligence about who we're dealing with on the Chinese side. 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:52.720 And that's partly a responsibility of universities, think tanks, media, UH, 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:56.600 state and local governments that are being approached for investments 0:04:56.760 --> 0:05:02.520 or uh for exchange relationships to investigate who they're dealing with. 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:07.720 But the federal government also needs to give these organizations 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:12.880 and actors more help and trying to understand and know 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:16.960 who they're dealing with. We're so used to military and 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:20.440 economic superiority over everybody, and it's been that way for 0:05:20.520 --> 0:05:24.400 quite a while. UM. The economic stuff is out there 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:26.520 for everybody to read, you know, the various gauges of 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:28.440 sizes of economies and that sort of stuff. But how 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:30.440 about the military stuff. I remember there's a statement out 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:33.400 of the Pentagon not too long ago that we're approaching 0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:35.520 a time where we we would not be able to 0:05:35.520 --> 0:05:39.599 win a war against China. Is that sound accurate to you? Yes, 0:05:39.680 --> 0:05:43.920 it does. After talking to a number of defense and 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:50.480 scientific analysts, because I do not present myself as one 0:05:50.520 --> 0:05:53.680 of those. In a technical sense, I think it is 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:58.480 not a hysterical concern that they're they're raising. I think 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:01.560 it's well founded. And the reason why that we all 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:04.600 need to keep in mind is that we're increasingly entering 0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:09.240 in the era of what they call asymmetric warfare. And 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:13.240 by asymmetric um what is meant is that we may 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:19.720 have more aircraft carriers, and we may have UH battleships 0:06:19.839 --> 0:06:25.600 destroyers that have more firepower than the Chinese. But if 0:06:25.640 --> 0:06:30.600 the People's Liberation Army can disable our ability to communicate 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:36.600 with them UH than UH for example, or find other 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:42.600 ways through long range, highly precise missiles that they're developing 0:06:43.160 --> 0:06:48.559 of actually sinking in American aircraft carrier, than the fact 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:52.039 that we have more than them and that they have 0:06:52.240 --> 0:06:56.240 more firepower isn't necessarily going to help us to win 0:06:56.279 --> 0:07:00.680 a war. Increasingly, I think the next war will be have. 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:05.360 If there is God forbid, a major war between major powers, 0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:11.920 it will be heavily driven by information technology. And if 0:07:11.920 --> 0:07:14.320 they have an edge in that, they may have a 0:07:14.360 --> 0:07:20.320 war fighting edge in general. Is it realistic to think that, 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:22.840 at some point in the future near enough to matter, 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:27.000 we'll convince China that stealing all of us, say a 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:32.160 company's uh, technological um information is not an okay way 0:07:32.160 --> 0:07:34.400 to do business. I don't see them giving in on 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:40.760 that point. Well, uh, that is a very pleasible scenario 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:44.280 that they won't UH. And if they don't, I think 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:49.200 we need to respond in a number of robust ways. Look, 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:53.680 I think anyone can google me and discover that I've 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:58.840 been extremely critical of President Donald Trump, but on this 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:03.880 issue of trade with China, and in particular UH, the 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:10.200 abuse of the trading relationship that is most dramatically evidenced 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:15.280 by their their theft and misappropriation of our intellectual property. 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:18.360 I think Trump is right on target. And I can 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:21.680 tell you during the late summer I spent twenty days 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:26.800 in Asia, and I was surprised by the number of 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:31.720 people in India, in Thailand, in Hong Kong, in Taiwan 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:35.120 who were telling me even people who were you know, 0:08:35.240 --> 0:08:40.040 environmental activists and obviously on the political left in their 0:08:40.080 --> 0:08:43.840 countries that they are very grateful to Donald Trump for 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:47.120 standing up to China. So I think in the current 0:08:47.120 --> 0:08:50.240 trade negotiations, we need to take a tough line on 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:54.800 this and uh, if they're not willing to change their practices, 0:08:55.600 --> 0:08:59.679 I think it should have not only significant consequences for trade, 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:02.800 but for the granting of visas to the people who 0:09:02.840 --> 0:09:08.240 are coming here and stealing this corporate and scientific technology. 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:11.080 Does China see us as a threat? Or is it 0:09:11.240 --> 0:09:14.600 cultural that they want to be number one? What keeps 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:16.840 them from just wanting to be, you know, one of 0:09:16.960 --> 0:09:22.840 two superpowers that does very well in the world. Well, Uh, 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:28.360 I think that all rising powers rising to super power 0:09:28.360 --> 0:09:31.360 of status in world history want to be number one, 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:35.319 So it would be you know, really, I think in 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:41.880 ethnocentric mistake to call that cultural. Um. I think that 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:46.360 it's not so much fear as ambition. Uh. They are 0:09:46.520 --> 0:09:49.920 arising superpower. They are, after all, the largest country in 0:09:49.960 --> 0:09:53.040 the world in population. And you've got to keep in 0:09:53.120 --> 0:10:00.640 mind Chinese history that China once was the Middle Kingdom, 0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:05.240 a great center of learning and commerce. Uh, the most 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:09.559 successful or certainly at various points in world history, one 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:14.079 of the most successful, advanced, admired civilizations in the world. 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:18.319 And I think beyond any kind of communist party doctrine, 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:21.640 because they're not trying to make the world communist, but 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:24.120 they are trying to penetrate and in sway it to 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:28.840 its point of view. Uh. They do certainly seek domination 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:32.280 within Asia. I think there's no question about that. They're 0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:36.640 trying to push the US out of Asia militarily and 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:42.320 to marginalize it economically and geopolitically. But after Asia, what 0:10:42.520 --> 0:10:45.120 you look at what they're doing around the world, there's 0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:50.040 these similar influence efforts. Uh in Europe as well. Uh. 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:54.080 They've got this Belt and Road initiative that's extending their 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:58.120 economic reach and clout and domination. I would even say 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:03.640 in Africa, Latin American, elsewhere Central Asia. Uh, And it 0:11:03.679 --> 0:11:07.839 looks like a pretty global ambition. How different has the 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:13.960 leadership of Ing been from his present predecessors. Well, that's 0:11:13.960 --> 0:11:16.760 a good question. I think that there is both a 0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:22.199 qualitative and an incremental difference. The incremental differences look as 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:26.920 you go from John Zamin to Jujent Tao, they each 0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:30.360 have had ten year terms and now since two thousand 0:11:30.360 --> 0:11:33.240 and twelve to Shi jin Ping, you do see a 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:37.640 progression in China's reach and ambition and boldness on the 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:43.360 world stage. That's an incremental evolution of Chinese power and ambition. 0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:47.200 The qualitative one, I think is that she is much 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:55.359 more aggressive and um bold and unapologetic about his intentions. 0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:59.720 And you look at what China has done under his leadership, 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.400 build these islands in the South China Sea out of nothing, 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:09.679 dredging sand and creating new islands which they are militarizing 0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:13.760 with air bases and radar stations and so on. And 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:17.440 you see in aggressiveness that we haven't seen before. Yeah. 0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:20.800 I've read a number of stories about China showing up 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:22.720 in countries where they just never seem to have any 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:25.040 interest before or couldn't have any interest in Middle East 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:30.080 or sending ships places that seems to be ongoing. Hmm. Yeah. 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:33.000 I mean they've got a military base now or some 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:35.520 kind of base in Djibouti in the Middle East, and 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:38.600 you know, they want to be a world power. And 0:12:38.800 --> 0:12:41.840 I will repeat they are the largest country in the world. 0:12:41.880 --> 0:12:46.439 They've been the most economically dynamic country in the world. Um, 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:49.360 there are a permanent member of the Security Council. They 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:55.480 increasingly show up to international meetings astonishingly well prepared, and 0:12:55.760 --> 0:12:59.520 you know, they increasingly are able to dominate the agenda 0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:02.520 because of that, which is to say, I mean give 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:05.280 them credit for this. They are doing their homework on 0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:10.800 international issues. Uh So, you know, uh, they are a 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:13.560 rise in global power and we'd better wake up to it. 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:18.880 You know, Russia has hacked our election and attacked our 0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:22.960 democracy in a way that no other country has ever done. 0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:29.959 But China's breadth of penetration of our society, our economy, 0:13:30.520 --> 0:13:36.360 our various democratic institutions is far broader than Russia's, and 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:41.560 China's potential to eclipse the United States as a world 0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:46.400 power is dramatically greater than Russia's, which has a tenth 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.439 of the population of China and is never going to 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:53.160 catch up to the United States again militarily or economically. 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:56.360 Let's talk a little bit about the Confucius Institutes on 0:13:56.400 --> 0:14:00.160 American university campuses. I've been harshly critical of them. I 0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:02.200 I've read the summary of your report. You're a little 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:06.840 more charitable to me. They are, you know, they're they're 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:10.240 so obviously a way to get Chinese propaganda and or 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:14.280 intelligence agents into the country. Any any benefits seems to 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:19.000 me incidental. Is that too too cynical. It's probably a 0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:23.480 little too cynical. Uh, in the following sense. I mean, 0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:27.160 we have a Confucius Institute here at Stanford. Frankly, I 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:29.320 don't know what it does. There's a plaque on a wall. 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:32.840 There's never been any sign that they have much impact. 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:36.400 I think the way to to think about it is 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:41.560 as follows. Uh, At you know, well resourced colleges and 0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:46.080 university Stanford, Berkeley, so on, that have um a lot 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:50.200 of resources to fund their own language instruction, a Confucius 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:53.360 Institute is probably just a small layer on the top 0:14:54.160 --> 0:14:58.560 Uh that if the relationship is transparent, uh, you know, 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:03.600 might add some some marginal value of teaching or or 0:15:04.000 --> 0:15:07.960 cultural exchange or so on. But at the many, many 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:11.000 colleges and universities, not only in the United States but 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:14.320 in Europe and elsewhere where, they don't have the money 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:20.680 to fund Chinese language instruction. And this money is very valued, uh, 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:24.280 and it's kind of the only thing going. The opportunity 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.720 to kind of drive the agenda of what's discussed about 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:31.240 China is much greater, And I think the bottom line 0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:36.280 we came to is that these contracts the universities sign 0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:44.040 between uh the university and the agency in China within 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:48.280 the Education ministry called the han Bond that runs these things, 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:52.200 they're all secret now, and it is just a violation 0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:57.040 of academic freedom and proper procedure in universities for any 0:15:57.120 --> 0:16:01.800 such contract to be secret. UH. So, you know, if 0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:04.960 universities are going to sign these things, they've got to 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:08.560 be transparent. They've got to be subjected to faculty review. 0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:12.160 Everybody's got to know exactly what's in them. The curriculum 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:15.200 needs to be open to inspection. And there needs to 0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:19.640 be no commitment of any kind. Two issues that are 0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:23.160 off the table for discussion in the classroom or on 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:26.680 the university or college campus. And just for personally, I 0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:29.920 don't think the Chinese will agree to those combustions for 0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:31.680 folks who are not familiar with it. How many of 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:34.440 these Confucius institutes are there in the US at this point, 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:39.440 I think like a hundred and fifties something like that 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:42.840 instead a hundred in the world. Wow, I just you know, 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:47.480 I appreciate a mid level university really wanting to be 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:50.560 hip enough to have Chinese language and cultural you know, 0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:55.160 information available to their students. But these c I's Confucius 0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:57.360 Institute seemed to me that the guy who's come to 0:16:57.400 --> 0:17:00.240 defile my sister, but he gives me ice cream. I mean, 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:02.000 I'm just not going to be that grateful for the 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.800 ice cream. I know why he's there, but you know, 0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:08.280 I wouldn't quite put in the provocative terms you did. 0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:12.200 But here's how I would put it. We want our 0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:15.119 young people to be learning Chinese and to be able 0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:21.080 to engage in a effective way. Uh. You know, the 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:24.200 largest and one of the most powerful and dynamic countries 0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:27.640 in the world. So that's all good, but it shouldn't 0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:31.520 be funded by the People's Republic of China. Let's pass 0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:35.560 a new National Defense Education Act like we did in 0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:38.760 the Cold War with respect to the Soviet Union, and 0:17:38.880 --> 0:17:42.159 have the US government stepped up to the plate to 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:49.440 fund college and university language instruction in critical languages like Chinese, Russian, Arabic, 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:53.320 and FARSI. I think that's the proper response. I know 0:17:53.440 --> 0:17:58.159 that you have written a lot books articles about democracy 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:00.560 the promotion of democracy around the world than the last 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:03.199 couple of years, democracy has been taken a hit and 0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:06.000 receding on the world stage a little bit. How much 0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:08.840 does it concern you that if China were to become 0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:14.080 the dominant economy or a peer of ours, a full 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:17.400 peer of ours militarily, there'll be less of an argument 0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:19.359 for democracy. I mean, for quite a while now you've 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:23.080 been able to say, look to the world, the most powerful, 0:18:23.320 --> 0:18:25.760 richest country in the world is a democracy. Well, if 0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:28.879 if you can say, look, the world's most powerful country 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:30.479 is a dictatorship, that's going to be more of an 0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:35.720 argument for that, isn't it. Uh. It's a very trenchant 0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:38.600 point you've just made, and it is one that the 0:18:38.720 --> 0:18:44.280 Chinese are pushing when they bring journalists and politicians from 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:51.000 developing emerging market countries for training and cultural exchange. Increasingly 0:18:51.080 --> 0:18:53.600 they are saying, we have a better model, we have 0:18:53.680 --> 0:18:58.639 a more dynamic model. And our challenge now is not 0:18:58.840 --> 0:19:02.760 only to wake up, to inform ourselves about, to be 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:08.280 vigilant about and and to strengthen our institutions against these 0:19:08.320 --> 0:19:12.960 forms of inappropriate influence and penetration, but we've got to 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:17.080 make our own democracy work better, uh, and in a 0:19:17.200 --> 0:19:21.520 less dysfunctional and polarized way. If we are going to 0:19:21.560 --> 0:19:25.040 be able to make the claim that democracy is the 0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:29.720 best form of government, uh, and can actually deliver practical 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:31.879 solutions to people's problems. You need to be able to 0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:35.720 stay solvent, for instance. Oh my goodness, yeah, we could 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:39.440 start there. Well, there's there's absolutely no arguing those of 0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:41.520 us who have spent any time looking at it about 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:45.679 the efficacy of dictatorships for doing certain things. They're not 0:19:45.840 --> 0:19:50.159 bogged down by the whole voting ridiculous environmental concerns and 0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:54.160 and you know, way, I got to tell you, as 0:19:54.160 --> 0:19:59.840 a social scientist who studies this issue that, um, their argument, 0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:04.560 which you've just kind of advanced as a as a hypothesis, 0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:09.080 really doesn't hold water. If you look at the evidence, 0:20:09.400 --> 0:20:12.480 all the evidence, and not just cherry picked China or 0:20:12.760 --> 0:20:17.840 you know, South Korea from the sixties through the eighties. Uh, 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:23.160 you find that the democracies do, on balance at least 0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:27.600 as well and in some places in historical periods, including 0:20:27.640 --> 0:20:33.159 Africa today, better than authoritarian regimes in delivering development. So 0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:37.040 their argument isn't even true. Oh, I believe that wholeheartedly, 0:20:37.240 --> 0:20:40.600 you wholeheartedly. I was just talking about the short term. 0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:43.000 You know that the appearance of a benefit if I'm 0:20:43.000 --> 0:20:47.600 an African warlord, the trains run on time. Sure. You know, 0:20:47.680 --> 0:20:50.520 you're probably familiar with Tom Friedman's articles over the years 0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:52.400 in the New York Times about how much more efficient 0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:56.720 China is because of their right the way their government works. Yeah. Correct, Yeah, 0:20:56.760 --> 0:20:59.480 if you need fifty thousand miles of road built, they're 0:20:59.480 --> 0:21:01.479 going to do it all more quickly in China. But 0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:06.080 there's an enormous cost to that, for instance, including trying 0:21:06.080 --> 0:21:08.080 to manipulate how many people you have in the country 0:21:08.080 --> 0:21:09.760 and how many kids people can have them. And when 0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:13.880 you start, you know, drilling down that deep in society, 0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:16.240 it gets complicated. That's one of their challenges going forward, 0:21:16.320 --> 0:21:20.000 isn't it. Well, it's much worse than that. I mean, 0:21:20.000 --> 0:21:22.560 they're getting rid of the one child policy now because 0:21:22.600 --> 0:21:27.240 it's had the perverse effect of creating a rapidly aging society. 0:21:27.280 --> 0:21:30.719 In fact, they're freaking out about it. It's happening so fast. 0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:34.399 But the more ominous thing, and this gets back to 0:21:34.440 --> 0:21:37.679 your point about what what the implications are for the 0:21:37.760 --> 0:21:40.760 future of freedom in the world. They are creating an 0:21:40.960 --> 0:21:46.440 Orwellian surveillance state in most cities. Now there's a surveillance 0:21:46.520 --> 0:21:50.400 camera on you know, every corner. They've got the most 0:21:50.400 --> 0:21:54.879 sophisticated surveillance cameras in the world. They lead the world 0:21:55.080 --> 0:21:59.000 in the technology of digital facial recognition, so they can 0:21:59.040 --> 0:22:01.440 figure out who it is on the streets who might 0:22:01.480 --> 0:22:05.480 be holding a protest sign or whatever. They've got technology 0:22:05.520 --> 0:22:07.720 that they can go up to someone and say, give 0:22:07.720 --> 0:22:10.359 me your cell phone and then basically sucked the whole 0:22:10.400 --> 0:22:13.120 contents out of it so they can see what they're 0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:17.680 reading and who they're talking to. Increasingly, in Shinjong Province, 0:22:17.720 --> 0:22:23.000 which is a completely totalitarian situation now in the northwest 0:22:23.040 --> 0:22:27.159 of China, they've got not only hundreds of thousands of 0:22:27.240 --> 0:22:31.840 people and concentration camps for quote re education, but there's 0:22:32.200 --> 0:22:36.159 swabbing everybody's d n A to build a complete and 0:22:36.200 --> 0:22:39.880 total portrait of every individual. I mean, this is almost 0:22:40.119 --> 0:22:43.760 beyond George Orwell. And this is what we're looking at 0:22:43.880 --> 0:22:49.080 when artificial intelligence and high technology meets uh, you know, 0:22:49.200 --> 0:22:53.399 a Lemon Leninist communist party state and perhaps gene editing 0:22:53.720 --> 0:22:56.000 babies to you know, who knows where they're going with that. 0:22:56.160 --> 0:22:59.200 So yeah, right, you know, I worry that the history 0:22:59.240 --> 0:23:03.400 of mankind is that the tighter dictatorship squeeze, the more 0:23:03.480 --> 0:23:07.400 likely it is that that rebellions will emerge and resistance 0:23:07.440 --> 0:23:12.400 will grow. But with the technological edge that China, for instance, 0:23:12.400 --> 0:23:14.959 has these days and the measures you are just describing, 0:23:15.920 --> 0:23:21.320 I don't know how you get a nascent rebellion going. Well. 0:23:21.359 --> 0:23:25.240 I think we've entered uncharted territory and we we actually 0:23:25.280 --> 0:23:28.440 don't know where this is leading. But you asked before 0:23:28.560 --> 0:23:31.480 what are they afraid of? And the answer and the 0:23:31.760 --> 0:23:34.720 real answers, I don't think they're afraid of the United States. 0:23:35.000 --> 0:23:38.520 They're afraid of their own people, and that's why they're 0:23:38.560 --> 0:23:41.399 implementing all these measures. That's interesting, which is always the 0:23:41.400 --> 0:23:44.600 case with dictatorships. Clearly their biggest concern is, you know, 0:23:44.720 --> 0:23:46.680 arrival in their own country kills them in the middle 0:23:46.680 --> 0:23:49.639 of the night, not not another country. So if we 0:23:49.640 --> 0:23:54.200 were to kind of drape of an overall theme around 0:23:54.240 --> 0:23:58.000 the conversation about China and its efforts to infiltrate what 0:23:58.119 --> 0:24:00.560 was it? You had a great quote from malk In Turnbull, 0:24:00.640 --> 0:24:05.560 former Australian Prime Minister uh covert, coercive or corrupting efforts 0:24:05.560 --> 0:24:08.879 to penetrate and sway. If you were to just describe 0:24:09.200 --> 0:24:13.480 what our attitude ought to be broadly toward China, toward 0:24:13.720 --> 0:24:18.360 Chinese scholars, Chinese companies, Chinese initiatives, how would you summarize 0:24:18.359 --> 0:24:23.320 it for the layman? I would say I'd used the 0:24:23.440 --> 0:24:27.400 term we use in the title of our report, constructive vigilance. 0:24:27.880 --> 0:24:32.800 We need to educate ourselves, our national government institutions need 0:24:32.880 --> 0:24:38.520 to help local institutions educate ourselves. Not to several ties 0:24:38.560 --> 0:24:41.439 with China, that would be a huge mistake, but to 0:24:41.520 --> 0:24:47.040 go into into these ties, UH, mindful of the risks, 0:24:47.119 --> 0:24:50.680 mindful of their agenda, aware of who we're dealing with 0:24:50.760 --> 0:24:54.639 and what they're hidden ties maybe to the communist parties state, 0:24:55.119 --> 0:25:00.600 and demanding both autonomy for ourselves in deciding who's going 0:25:00.640 --> 0:25:05.959 to be involved in the exchanges of relationships and reciprocity 0:25:06.040 --> 0:25:09.320 that they shouldn't be able to have unfettered access to 0:25:09.400 --> 0:25:16.199 our society. Our institutions are politicians, and our not being 0:25:16.240 --> 0:25:21.159 able to UH send journalists and scholars and other actors 0:25:21.160 --> 0:25:24.399 over there on more or less our own open terms. 0:25:25.280 --> 0:25:28.920 Larry Diamond, Senior fellow with the Hoover Institution, really really 0:25:28.960 --> 0:25:31.959 interesting conversation. Can't wait to read more. Of the report 0:25:31.960 --> 0:25:33.960 and will have a link so that our folks can 0:25:34.000 --> 0:25:36.960 find it very easily. We sure appreciate the time. Well done, 0:25:37.680 --> 0:25:40.840 Thank you so much, thank you. I do think that 0:25:40.840 --> 0:25:44.040 that's uh he called it a trenchant point. I don't 0:25:44.040 --> 0:25:45.840 know what that word means, so I didn't know if 0:25:45.840 --> 0:25:49.960 he was saying that's a good point or or if 0:25:50.359 --> 0:25:52.159 you know, once you let's grown up speak No, No, 0:25:52.280 --> 0:25:55.800 that compliments no, But I do, I do. I do 0:25:55.880 --> 0:25:58.119 have the concern that if the most powerful country in 0:25:58.119 --> 0:26:00.359 the world is a dictatorship, it's a lot harder to 0:26:00.359 --> 0:26:03.440 sell democracy. Yeah, well, and we have to sell democracy. 0:26:03.520 --> 0:26:05.280 I was actually gonna ask if we got a chance, 0:26:05.280 --> 0:26:07.119 if if Larry is familiar with the book I have 0:26:07.200 --> 0:26:11.000 referenced many times with the Dictator's Handbook UM subtitle why 0:26:11.040 --> 0:26:13.480 Bad Behavior Is Almost Always Good Politics by Bruce and 0:26:13.520 --> 0:26:18.160 Bueno de Mesquite that and Alistair Smith, and they talk 0:26:18.240 --> 0:26:21.320 about how effective dictatorships are at certain stuff. But then 0:26:21.359 --> 0:26:23.640 they get into the fact that if you're talking about 0:26:24.119 --> 0:26:31.160 clean water, adequate medical care, uh, the life expectancy, infant 0:26:31.680 --> 0:26:35.560 mortality rates, just every measure of you have a not 0:26:35.920 --> 0:26:39.320 miserable life. Democracies always win well, and number one I 0:26:39.359 --> 0:26:42.840 know is always innovation. You do not get Steve Jobs 0:26:42.880 --> 0:26:45.520 coming out of dictatorships. You just don't get that this 0:26:45.600 --> 0:26:47.439 is impossible, which is a drum we ought to be 0:26:47.440 --> 0:26:50.360 beating like crazy all the time because listen, if I'm 0:26:50.359 --> 0:26:55.680 an African UH dictator, number one, I should be deposed immediately. 0:26:56.160 --> 0:26:59.399 You should. You can do better than that. Um. But 0:26:59.560 --> 0:27:04.160