1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,440 Speaker 1: Really excited about our next guest, Larry Diamond. He's a 2 00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: senior fellow with the Hoover Institution, co editor, founding co 3 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: editor of the Journal of Democracy, senior consultant at the 4 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: International Forum for Democratic Studies of the National Endowment for 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 1: Democracy China. Right, we're going to talk about China. His 6 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 1: research focuses on democratic trends and conditions around the world, 7 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 1: and he's just been part of producing a big new 8 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 1: report about the way China is trying to influence the 9 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: West in ways both the savory and unsavory, including the 10 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: United States. Looking forward to this, Larry Diamond joins us. Now, welcome. 11 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 1: We appreciate you joining us for the podcast. So listen. 12 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:47,599 Speaker 1: The the current zeitgeist is to hang on every mentioned, 13 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: every whiff of anybody talking to any Russians and act 14 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: as though that is self evidently a betrayal of the 15 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 1: nation or a dangerous activity and that sort of thing. 16 00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: And I'm not downplaying Vladimir putting An plans, but it's 17 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:06,199 Speaker 1: funny that no such sentiment exists about our many, many 18 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:10,040 Speaker 1: contacts with China. Well, I think that's beginning to change, 19 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: and uh, we make very clear in this report we've 20 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 1: just released with the Hoover Institution that we do not 21 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: want to generate or feed a generalized hysteria about China 22 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 1: or contacts with China, and certainly not about Chinese Americans 23 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: or even Chinese visitors in the United States. But they 24 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: do have an agenda here to penetrate and sway our democracy, 25 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 1: and we need to wake up to it. And how 26 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 1: are they going about penetrating our democracy? Well, not as 27 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 1: deeply and alarmingly as they have in Australian New Zealand, 28 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: where there's ample evidence of them really having uh penetrated 29 00:01:55,800 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 1: politics through campaign contributions and enlisting for the work of 30 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: their companies and business people former prime ministers and former ministers. 31 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: But you know, they are moving deeply into universities with 32 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:20,799 Speaker 1: very uh I think unhealthy conditions and lack of transparency 33 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: in terms of some of the relationships. When they have 34 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 1: exchanges with think tanks and universities, often they will uh 35 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 1: eliminate people from the exchange list from the ability to 36 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 1: participate in a conference if they don't like their politics. Uh. 37 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 1: They are very selective, increasingly so in the granting of 38 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: visas to journalists and scholars and so on so they 39 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:48,399 Speaker 1: can send a message that if you criticize China, you'll 40 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:52,639 Speaker 1: be denied access. Uh. They're getting business people to do 41 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 1: their bid, American business people to do their bidding and 42 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: appeal for their policy interests with the US government. Uh. 43 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 1: They are stealing our technology, uh and uh misappropriating intellectual property. Uh. 44 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: They're sending scientists and engineers to work in university and 45 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:18,399 Speaker 1: other labs in the United States who are affiliated with 46 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: or working for the People's Liberation Army and disguise their 47 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:26,239 Speaker 1: real identity so it looks like they're just honest scientists. 48 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 1: And then you wake up and you find, just read 49 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,799 Speaker 1: the newspaper on a daily basis, whether it's quantum computing 50 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 1: or electric cars or a gene editing or whatever, that 51 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 1: there's artificial intelligence. They're surging ahead of the United States 52 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: in technologies that will not only determine who leads the 53 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: world economy, but looking over the not very distant horizon, 54 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: who will have military superiority. Well, I appreciate your disclaimer 55 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: at the beginning of our chat about not, you know, 56 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: causing some sort of generalized desteria about the Chinese people, 57 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 1: but that sounds like serious concern about serious issues. This 58 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 1: is not ticky tech, you know, trying to gain a 59 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 1: little bit of advantage. This is serious stuff. I think 60 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 1: it's very serious stuff. UH, and so do UH. You 61 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: know a significant number of people who have spent their 62 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 1: lifetime studying China, who love China, uh, and who have 63 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 1: joined in this working group report that we just released. 64 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 1: We just need to be what we call in the report, 65 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:41,159 Speaker 1: constructively vigilant. We need much more information, uh, much more 66 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: due diligence about who we're dealing with on the Chinese side. 67 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:52,720 Speaker 1: And that's partly a responsibility of universities, think tanks, media, UH, 68 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:56,600 Speaker 1: state and local governments that are being approached for investments 69 00:04:56,760 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: or uh for exchange relationships to investigate who they're dealing with. 70 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:07,720 Speaker 1: But the federal government also needs to give these organizations 71 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 1: and actors more help and trying to understand and know 72 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: who they're dealing with. We're so used to military and 73 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: economic superiority over everybody, and it's been that way for 74 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: quite a while. UM. The economic stuff is out there 75 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 1: for everybody to read, you know, the various gauges of 76 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 1: sizes of economies and that sort of stuff. But how 77 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 1: about the military stuff. I remember there's a statement out 78 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: of the Pentagon not too long ago that we're approaching 79 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 1: a time where we we would not be able to 80 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 1: win a war against China. Is that sound accurate to you? Yes, 81 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 1: it does. After talking to a number of defense and 82 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 1: scientific analysts, because I do not present myself as one 83 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: of those. In a technical sense, I think it is 84 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 1: not a hysterical concern that they're they're raising. I think 85 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 1: it's well founded. And the reason why that we all 86 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 1: need to keep in mind is that we're increasingly entering 87 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 1: in the era of what they call asymmetric warfare. And 88 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:13,240 Speaker 1: by asymmetric um what is meant is that we may 89 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 1: have more aircraft carriers, and we may have UH battleships 90 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 1: destroyers that have more firepower than the Chinese. But if 91 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 1: the People's Liberation Army can disable our ability to communicate 92 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:36,600 Speaker 1: with them UH than UH for example, or find other 93 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 1: ways through long range, highly precise missiles that they're developing 94 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:48,559 Speaker 1: of actually sinking in American aircraft carrier, than the fact 95 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:52,039 Speaker 1: that we have more than them and that they have 96 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 1: more firepower isn't necessarily going to help us to win 97 00:06:56,279 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 1: a war. Increasingly, I think the next war will be have. 98 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 1: If there is God forbid, a major war between major powers, 99 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 1: it will be heavily driven by information technology. And if 100 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: they have an edge in that, they may have a 101 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 1: war fighting edge in general. Is it realistic to think that, 102 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: at some point in the future near enough to matter, 103 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: we'll convince China that stealing all of us, say a 104 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 1: company's uh, technological um information is not an okay way 105 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 1: to do business. I don't see them giving in on 106 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: that point. Well, uh, that is a very pleasible scenario 107 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: that they won't UH. And if they don't, I think 108 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: we need to respond in a number of robust ways. Look, 109 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 1: I think anyone can google me and discover that I've 110 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 1: been extremely critical of President Donald Trump, but on this 111 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 1: issue of trade with China, and in particular UH, the 112 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: abuse of the trading relationship that is most dramatically evidenced 113 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 1: by their their theft and misappropriation of our intellectual property. 114 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 1: I think Trump is right on target. And I can 115 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:21,680 Speaker 1: tell you during the late summer I spent twenty days 116 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 1: in Asia, and I was surprised by the number of 117 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: people in India, in Thailand, in Hong Kong, in Taiwan 118 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 1: who were telling me even people who were you know, 119 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 1: environmental activists and obviously on the political left in their 120 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:43,840 Speaker 1: countries that they are very grateful to Donald Trump for 121 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 1: standing up to China. So I think in the current 122 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: trade negotiations, we need to take a tough line on 123 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 1: this and uh, if they're not willing to change their practices, 124 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:59,679 Speaker 1: I think it should have not only significant consequences for trade, 125 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: but for the granting of visas to the people who 126 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 1: are coming here and stealing this corporate and scientific technology. 127 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:11,080 Speaker 1: Does China see us as a threat? Or is it 128 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 1: cultural that they want to be number one? What keeps 129 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 1: them from just wanting to be, you know, one of 130 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 1: two superpowers that does very well in the world. Well, Uh, 131 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 1: I think that all rising powers rising to super power 132 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 1: of status in world history want to be number one, 133 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:35,319 Speaker 1: So it would be you know, really, I think in 134 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: ethnocentric mistake to call that cultural. Um. I think that 135 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: it's not so much fear as ambition. Uh. They are 136 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 1: arising superpower. They are, after all, the largest country in 137 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 1: the world in population. And you've got to keep in 138 00:09:53,120 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: mind Chinese history that China once was the Middle Kingdom, 139 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 1: a great center of learning and commerce. Uh, the most 140 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:09,559 Speaker 1: successful or certainly at various points in world history, one 141 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:14,079 Speaker 1: of the most successful, advanced, admired civilizations in the world. 142 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:18,319 Speaker 1: And I think beyond any kind of communist party doctrine, 143 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 1: because they're not trying to make the world communist, but 144 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: they are trying to penetrate and in sway it to 145 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:28,840 Speaker 1: its point of view. Uh. They do certainly seek domination 146 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: within Asia. I think there's no question about that. They're 147 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 1: trying to push the US out of Asia militarily and 148 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 1: to marginalize it economically and geopolitically. But after Asia, what 149 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 1: you look at what they're doing around the world, there's 150 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 1: these similar influence efforts. Uh in Europe as well. Uh. 151 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 1: They've got this Belt and Road initiative that's extending their 152 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 1: economic reach and clout and domination. I would even say 153 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 1: in Africa, Latin American, elsewhere Central Asia. Uh, And it 154 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:07,839 Speaker 1: looks like a pretty global ambition. How different has the 155 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: leadership of Ing been from his present predecessors. Well, that's 156 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: a good question. I think that there is both a 157 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:22,199 Speaker 1: qualitative and an incremental difference. The incremental differences look as 158 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: you go from John Zamin to Jujent Tao, they each 159 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: have had ten year terms and now since two thousand 160 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 1: and twelve to Shi jin Ping, you do see a 161 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 1: progression in China's reach and ambition and boldness on the 162 00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 1: world stage. That's an incremental evolution of Chinese power and ambition. 163 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 1: The qualitative one, I think is that she is much 164 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:55,359 Speaker 1: more aggressive and um bold and unapologetic about his intentions. 165 00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 1: And you look at what China has done under his leadership, 166 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 1: build these islands in the South China Sea out of nothing, 167 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:09,679 Speaker 1: dredging sand and creating new islands which they are militarizing 168 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: with air bases and radar stations and so on. And 169 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:17,440 Speaker 1: you see in aggressiveness that we haven't seen before. Yeah. 170 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 1: I've read a number of stories about China showing up 171 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: in countries where they just never seem to have any 172 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: interest before or couldn't have any interest in Middle East 173 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 1: or sending ships places that seems to be ongoing. Hmm. Yeah. 174 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 1: I mean they've got a military base now or some 175 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 1: kind of base in Djibouti in the Middle East, and 176 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 1: you know, they want to be a world power. And 177 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 1: I will repeat they are the largest country in the world. 178 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:46,439 Speaker 1: They've been the most economically dynamic country in the world. Um, 179 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 1: there are a permanent member of the Security Council. They 180 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: increasingly show up to international meetings astonishingly well prepared, and 181 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 1: you know, they increasingly are able to dominate the agenda 182 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 1: because of that, which is to say, I mean give 183 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: them credit for this. They are doing their homework on 184 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 1: international issues. Uh So, you know, uh, they are a 185 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:13,560 Speaker 1: rise in global power and we'd better wake up to it. 186 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: You know, Russia has hacked our election and attacked our 187 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 1: democracy in a way that no other country has ever done. 188 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:29,959 Speaker 1: But China's breadth of penetration of our society, our economy, 189 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 1: our various democratic institutions is far broader than Russia's, and 190 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 1: China's potential to eclipse the United States as a world 191 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 1: power is dramatically greater than Russia's, which has a tenth 192 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,439 Speaker 1: of the population of China and is never going to 193 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: catch up to the United States again militarily or economically. 194 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about the Confucius Institutes on 195 00:13:56,400 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 1: American university campuses. I've been harshly critical of them. I 196 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,200 Speaker 1: I've read the summary of your report. You're a little 197 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: more charitable to me. They are, you know, they're they're 198 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 1: so obviously a way to get Chinese propaganda and or 199 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: intelligence agents into the country. Any any benefits seems to 200 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 1: me incidental. Is that too too cynical. It's probably a 201 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 1: little too cynical. Uh, in the following sense. I mean, 202 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 1: we have a Confucius Institute here at Stanford. Frankly, I 203 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 1: don't know what it does. There's a plaque on a wall. 204 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: There's never been any sign that they have much impact. 205 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: I think the way to to think about it is 206 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 1: as follows. Uh, At you know, well resourced colleges and 207 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: university Stanford, Berkeley, so on, that have um a lot 208 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 1: of resources to fund their own language instruction, a Confucius 209 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 1: Institute is probably just a small layer on the top 210 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 1: Uh that if the relationship is transparent, uh, you know, 211 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 1: might add some some marginal value of teaching or or 212 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 1: cultural exchange or so on. But at the many, many 213 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: colleges and universities, not only in the United States but 214 00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 1: in Europe and elsewhere where, they don't have the money 215 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 1: to fund Chinese language instruction. And this money is very valued, uh, 216 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 1: and it's kind of the only thing going. The opportunity 217 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 1: to kind of drive the agenda of what's discussed about 218 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 1: China is much greater, And I think the bottom line 219 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: we came to is that these contracts the universities sign 220 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 1: between uh the university and the agency in China within 221 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 1: the Education ministry called the han Bond that runs these things, 222 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: they're all secret now, and it is just a violation 223 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: of academic freedom and proper procedure in universities for any 224 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:01,800 Speaker 1: such contract to be secret. UH. So, you know, if 225 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,960 Speaker 1: universities are going to sign these things, they've got to 226 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 1: be transparent. They've got to be subjected to faculty review. 227 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: Everybody's got to know exactly what's in them. The curriculum 228 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: needs to be open to inspection. And there needs to 229 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 1: be no commitment of any kind. Two issues that are 230 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 1: off the table for discussion in the classroom or on 231 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: the university or college campus. And just for personally, I 232 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 1: don't think the Chinese will agree to those combustions for 233 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 1: folks who are not familiar with it. How many of 234 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 1: these Confucius institutes are there in the US at this point, 235 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 1: I think like a hundred and fifties something like that 236 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 1: instead a hundred in the world. Wow, I just you know, 237 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 1: I appreciate a mid level university really wanting to be 238 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 1: hip enough to have Chinese language and cultural you know, 239 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 1: information available to their students. But these c I's Confucius 240 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 1: Institute seemed to me that the guy who's come to 241 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 1: defile my sister, but he gives me ice cream. I mean, 242 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: I'm just not going to be that grateful for the 243 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 1: ice cream. I know why he's there, but you know, 244 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 1: I wouldn't quite put in the provocative terms you did. 245 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 1: But here's how I would put it. We want our 246 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:15,119 Speaker 1: young people to be learning Chinese and to be able 247 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 1: to engage in a effective way. Uh. You know, the 248 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 1: largest and one of the most powerful and dynamic countries 249 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,640 Speaker 1: in the world. So that's all good, but it shouldn't 250 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 1: be funded by the People's Republic of China. Let's pass 251 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 1: a new National Defense Education Act like we did in 252 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 1: the Cold War with respect to the Soviet Union, and 253 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,159 Speaker 1: have the US government stepped up to the plate to 254 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 1: fund college and university language instruction in critical languages like Chinese, Russian, Arabic, 255 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 1: and FARSI. I think that's the proper response. I know 256 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:58,159 Speaker 1: that you have written a lot books articles about democracy 257 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 1: the promotion of democracy around the world than the last 258 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,199 Speaker 1: couple of years, democracy has been taken a hit and 259 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 1: receding on the world stage a little bit. How much 260 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: does it concern you that if China were to become 261 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: the dominant economy or a peer of ours, a full 262 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:17,400 Speaker 1: peer of ours militarily, there'll be less of an argument 263 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 1: for democracy. I mean, for quite a while now you've 264 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: been able to say, look to the world, the most powerful, 265 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,760 Speaker 1: richest country in the world is a democracy. Well, if 266 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 1: if you can say, look, the world's most powerful country 267 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:30,479 Speaker 1: is a dictatorship, that's going to be more of an 268 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 1: argument for that, isn't it. Uh. It's a very trenchant 269 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 1: point you've just made, and it is one that the 270 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 1: Chinese are pushing when they bring journalists and politicians from 271 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: developing emerging market countries for training and cultural exchange. Increasingly 272 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 1: they are saying, we have a better model, we have 273 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 1: a more dynamic model. And our challenge now is not 274 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: only to wake up, to inform ourselves about, to be 275 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: vigilant about and and to strengthen our institutions against these 276 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: forms of inappropriate influence and penetration, but we've got to 277 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 1: make our own democracy work better, uh, and in a 278 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 1: less dysfunctional and polarized way. If we are going to 279 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 1: be able to make the claim that democracy is the 280 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 1: best form of government, uh, and can actually deliver practical 281 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:31,879 Speaker 1: solutions to people's problems. You need to be able to 282 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: stay solvent, for instance. Oh my goodness, yeah, we could 283 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 1: start there. Well, there's there's absolutely no arguing those of 284 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 1: us who have spent any time looking at it about 285 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:45,679 Speaker 1: the efficacy of dictatorships for doing certain things. They're not 286 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:50,159 Speaker 1: bogged down by the whole voting ridiculous environmental concerns and 287 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 1: and you know, way, I got to tell you, as 288 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: a social scientist who studies this issue that, um, their argument, 289 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 1: which you've just kind of advanced as a as a hypothesis, 290 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 1: really doesn't hold water. If you look at the evidence, 291 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 1: all the evidence, and not just cherry picked China or 292 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 1: you know, South Korea from the sixties through the eighties. Uh, 293 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:23,160 Speaker 1: you find that the democracies do, on balance at least 294 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: as well and in some places in historical periods, including 295 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:33,159 Speaker 1: Africa today, better than authoritarian regimes in delivering development. So 296 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: their argument isn't even true. Oh, I believe that wholeheartedly, 297 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: you wholeheartedly. I was just talking about the short term. 298 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 1: You know that the appearance of a benefit if I'm 299 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 1: an African warlord, the trains run on time. Sure. You know, 300 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 1: you're probably familiar with Tom Friedman's articles over the years 301 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:52,400 Speaker 1: in the New York Times about how much more efficient 302 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 1: China is because of their right the way their government works. Yeah. Correct, Yeah, 303 00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 1: if you need fifty thousand miles of road built, they're 304 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:01,479 Speaker 1: going to do it all more quickly in China. But 305 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: there's an enormous cost to that, for instance, including trying 306 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 1: to manipulate how many people you have in the country 307 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 1: and how many kids people can have them. And when 308 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:13,880 Speaker 1: you start, you know, drilling down that deep in society, 309 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 1: it gets complicated. That's one of their challenges going forward, 310 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 1: isn't it. Well, it's much worse than that. I mean, 311 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 1: they're getting rid of the one child policy now because 312 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: it's had the perverse effect of creating a rapidly aging society. 313 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:30,719 Speaker 1: In fact, they're freaking out about it. It's happening so fast. 314 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,399 Speaker 1: But the more ominous thing, and this gets back to 315 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,679 Speaker 1: your point about what what the implications are for the 316 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 1: future of freedom in the world. They are creating an 317 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 1: Orwellian surveillance state in most cities. Now there's a surveillance 318 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:50,400 Speaker 1: camera on you know, every corner. They've got the most 319 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 1: sophisticated surveillance cameras in the world. They lead the world 320 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 1: in the technology of digital facial recognition, so they can 321 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 1: figure out who it is on the streets who might 322 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 1: be holding a protest sign or whatever. They've got technology 323 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 1: that they can go up to someone and say, give 324 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,359 Speaker 1: me your cell phone and then basically sucked the whole 325 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,120 Speaker 1: contents out of it so they can see what they're 326 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 1: reading and who they're talking to. Increasingly, in Shinjong Province, 327 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 1: which is a completely totalitarian situation now in the northwest 328 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 1: of China, they've got not only hundreds of thousands of 329 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:31,840 Speaker 1: people and concentration camps for quote re education, but there's 330 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:36,159 Speaker 1: swabbing everybody's d n A to build a complete and 331 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,880 Speaker 1: total portrait of every individual. I mean, this is almost 332 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 1: beyond George Orwell. And this is what we're looking at 333 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 1: when artificial intelligence and high technology meets uh, you know, 334 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 1: a Lemon Leninist communist party state and perhaps gene editing 335 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 1: babies to you know, who knows where they're going with that. 336 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 1: So yeah, right, you know, I worry that the history 337 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:03,400 Speaker 1: of mankind is that the tighter dictatorship squeeze, the more 338 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:07,400 Speaker 1: likely it is that that rebellions will emerge and resistance 339 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:12,400 Speaker 1: will grow. But with the technological edge that China, for instance, 340 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,959 Speaker 1: has these days and the measures you are just describing, 341 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: I don't know how you get a nascent rebellion going. Well. 342 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 1: I think we've entered uncharted territory and we we actually 343 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:28,440 Speaker 1: don't know where this is leading. But you asked before 344 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,480 Speaker 1: what are they afraid of? And the answer and the 345 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,720 Speaker 1: real answers, I don't think they're afraid of the United States. 346 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 1: They're afraid of their own people, and that's why they're 347 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 1: implementing all these measures. That's interesting, which is always the 348 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 1: case with dictatorships. Clearly their biggest concern is, you know, 349 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 1: arrival in their own country kills them in the middle 350 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,639 Speaker 1: of the night, not not another country. So if we 351 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:54,200 Speaker 1: were to kind of drape of an overall theme around 352 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: the conversation about China and its efforts to infiltrate what 353 00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 1: was it? You had a great quote from malk In Turnbull, 354 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:05,560 Speaker 1: former Australian Prime Minister uh covert, coercive or corrupting efforts 355 00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 1: to penetrate and sway. If you were to just describe 356 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 1: what our attitude ought to be broadly toward China, toward 357 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:18,360 Speaker 1: Chinese scholars, Chinese companies, Chinese initiatives, how would you summarize 358 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 1: it for the layman? I would say I'd used the 359 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,400 Speaker 1: term we use in the title of our report, constructive vigilance. 360 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 1: We need to educate ourselves, our national government institutions need 361 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 1: to help local institutions educate ourselves. Not to several ties 362 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,439 Speaker 1: with China, that would be a huge mistake, but to 363 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 1: go into into these ties, UH, mindful of the risks, 364 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 1: mindful of their agenda, aware of who we're dealing with 365 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:54,639 Speaker 1: and what they're hidden ties maybe to the communist parties state, 366 00:24:55,119 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 1: and demanding both autonomy for ourselves in deciding who's going 367 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:05,959 Speaker 1: to be involved in the exchanges of relationships and reciprocity 368 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 1: that they shouldn't be able to have unfettered access to 369 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:16,199 Speaker 1: our society. Our institutions are politicians, and our not being 370 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:21,159 Speaker 1: able to UH send journalists and scholars and other actors 371 00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,399 Speaker 1: over there on more or less our own open terms. 372 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,920 Speaker 1: Larry Diamond, Senior fellow with the Hoover Institution, really really 373 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,959 Speaker 1: interesting conversation. Can't wait to read more. Of the report 374 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:33,960 Speaker 1: and will have a link so that our folks can 375 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 1: find it very easily. We sure appreciate the time. Well done, 376 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, thank you. I do think that 377 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 1: that's uh he called it a trenchant point. I don't 378 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 1: know what that word means, so I didn't know if 379 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 1: he was saying that's a good point or or if 380 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 1: you know, once you let's grown up speak No, No, 381 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 1: that compliments no, But I do, I do. I do 382 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,119 Speaker 1: have the concern that if the most powerful country in 383 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 1: the world is a dictatorship, it's a lot harder to 384 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,440 Speaker 1: sell democracy. Yeah, well, and we have to sell democracy. 385 00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 1: I was actually gonna ask if we got a chance, 386 00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,119 Speaker 1: if if Larry is familiar with the book I have 387 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 1: referenced many times with the Dictator's Handbook UM subtitle why 388 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 1: Bad Behavior Is Almost Always Good Politics by Bruce and 389 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:18,160 Speaker 1: Bueno de Mesquite that and Alistair Smith, and they talk 390 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,320 Speaker 1: about how effective dictatorships are at certain stuff. But then 391 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:23,640 Speaker 1: they get into the fact that if you're talking about 392 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:31,160 Speaker 1: clean water, adequate medical care, uh, the life expectancy, infant 393 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 1: mortality rates, just every measure of you have a not 394 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 1: miserable life. Democracies always win well, and number one I 395 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,840 Speaker 1: know is always innovation. You do not get Steve Jobs 396 00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,520 Speaker 1: coming out of dictatorships. You just don't get that this 397 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,439 Speaker 1: is impossible, which is a drum we ought to be 398 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,360 Speaker 1: beating like crazy all the time because listen, if I'm 399 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:55,680 Speaker 1: an African UH dictator, number one, I should be deposed immediately. 400 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,399 Speaker 1: You should. You can do better than that. Um. But 401 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:04,160 Speaker 1: if I'm an African dictator and I'm thinking of mmmmm, 402 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,600 Speaker 1: do I go with the American model? Because you know, 403 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:11,000 Speaker 1: my people are starving. I've got enough money to distribute 404 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 1: to the elites in the army, so we're okay. The 405 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,679 Speaker 1: treasury is good enough to keep me in power, but barely. 406 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,399 Speaker 1: Do I want to go the American model? Do I 407 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 1: want to liberalize? Do I want to give people rights 408 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,919 Speaker 1: and and have them vote and risk losing my power 409 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,440 Speaker 1: and and probably being tried from my many crimes financial 410 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: and otherwise. Or do I want to embrace the Chinese model? 411 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,560 Speaker 1: You know, we'll keep a dictator ship, will liberalize around 412 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 1: the edges economically, but will you also surveil our people 413 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 1: and tell them what they're doing? Please? Please? Warlord Joe 414 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 1: is not going to take three minutes thinking about that, 415 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,159 Speaker 1: And that's why you've got to just absolutely promote the 416 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 1: value of democracy as hard as you can, and you're 417 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 1: gonna you're gonna lose a lot of those you know, 418 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,479 Speaker 1: those those battles. But he made a good point. But 419 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 1: but I'm sorry, but that shining example is still gonna 420 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:02,440 Speaker 1: be out in front of the people who are oppressed, 421 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 1: and you hope someday they're gonna overthrow me and and 422 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:07,760 Speaker 1: get to what's actually good for them. It's just human 423 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,119 Speaker 1: nature to want to be number one. That's just I mean, 424 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,199 Speaker 1: that's just the way I'll would sway everybody's built. So 425 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,399 Speaker 1: it's not something special to the Chinese that you're on 426 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,600 Speaker 1: the cusp of being number one. And you know, if 427 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,000 Speaker 1: you're the number two NBA team right behind the Warriors, 428 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,520 Speaker 1: who's gonna say that's good enough? Why can't we be 429 00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 1: a number two is great? The number two prost expert, 430 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 1: number number two is great. That's just not the way 431 00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:29,160 Speaker 1: anybody is built. So do they have and I'm serious 432 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,879 Speaker 1: about this, do they have foam number one fingers in China? 433 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 1: If they make them in China? Wonder if they have 434 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 1: them for you know whatever. You know, Hunan provinces, you know, 435 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 1: the other province in soccer, do they wave foam? Number one? 436 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 1: In my lifetime, will trying to be the number one 437 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:52,240 Speaker 1: economy and the number one military power in the world. Maybe, ye, maybe, 438 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,040 Speaker 1: probably almost certainly the economy. If you get hit by 439 00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 1: of us today, No, no, they will not. There's that. 440 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 1: See a lot of eubles. That's a trenchant point. Thank 441 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 1: you very much. I hope you've enjoyed the Armstrong in 442 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 1: any podcast.