WEBVTT - NL Prospects Changing Our Minds 0:00:00.689 --> 0:00:04.390 Hello, everybody. J.J. Cooper, Jeff Ponce, Baseball America Prospect Podcast. 0:00:04.740 --> 0:00:08.360 And we might see some smiles on our faces because 0:00:09.300 --> 0:00:13.260 we filed our NL Top Tens. The Top Ten Prospects 0:00:13.340 --> 0:00:16.480 for all the National League teams are done as we 0:00:16.540 --> 0:00:21.470 record this. And we're sending the mag to the printer 0:00:21.710 --> 0:00:25.910 on Monday, I believe. We are starting to post our 0:00:25.950 --> 0:00:28.850 Top Tens online next Monday. 0:00:28.870 --> 0:00:28.950 Okay. 0:00:29.430 --> 0:00:31.930 And they will just, once they start, other than a 0:00:31.950 --> 0:00:34.260 couple of breaks for holidays, they won't stop until we're 0:00:34.300 --> 0:00:38.519 done with all 30 teams. But the most important thing 0:00:38.580 --> 0:00:40.260 is this for us is we got some done. And 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:41.780 that's what we're going to talk about today. We are 0:00:41.820 --> 0:00:46.510 going to talk about what we learned doing the top tens. 0:00:46.810 --> 0:00:49.730 Pick out some players who are intriguing to us as 0:00:49.810 --> 0:00:54.030 we work through the top tens. But Jeff, we're recording 0:00:54.070 --> 0:00:58.010 this after game three, the blowout. We're recording this before 0:00:58.050 --> 0:01:03.460 game four. I feel like we can comfortably say that 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:06.649 the Brewers are likely to win the World Series, considering 0:01:06.690 --> 0:01:09.630 that no team has ever come back from a down 0:01:09.650 --> 0:01:13.630 3-0 in the World Series. And really, you know, you 0:01:13.650 --> 0:01:16.150 can look at the Red Sox. The 2004 Red Sox 0:01:16.209 --> 0:01:17.770 is the only team to really come back from down 0-3, 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:23.039 I mean, 0-3 period in a best-of-seven baseball series, postseason series. 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:26.060 But led to an interesting question that I wanted to 0:01:26.360 --> 0:01:31.660 pose to you, and I'll give my thoughts, too. But, okay. Obviously, 0:01:31.780 --> 0:01:35.060 the Dodgers won back-to-back before this. The Brewers are about 0:01:35.100 --> 0:01:38.420 to win, looks like, their first World Series. But looking ahead, 0:01:40.100 --> 0:01:43.310 for the last 10 years, if you said at any point, 0:01:44.209 --> 0:01:46.350 other than maybe if you said the Astros for a 0:01:46.410 --> 0:01:50.450 stretch in the late 20-teens into the early 2020s, but 0:01:50.490 --> 0:01:53.410 if you said what team do you think will have 0:01:53.430 --> 0:01:56.790 the most wins over the next three seasons, I think 0:01:56.810 --> 0:01:59.510 the Dodgers has been the answer immediately. Time after time 0:01:59.550 --> 0:02:01.030 after time after time. And I'm going to say most 0:02:01.130 --> 0:02:03.870 wins because the World Series post-seasons can be a little 0:02:03.890 --> 0:02:06.270 bit of a crapshoot. But who do you think is 0:02:06.290 --> 0:02:08.309 going to get more wins over the next, let's say, 0:02:08.410 --> 0:02:15.860 three years? The Brewers or the Dodgers? 0:02:16.139 --> 0:02:17.160 It's a tough question. 0:02:17.500 --> 0:02:21.280 I mean, because I think when you go World Series 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:27.090 versus wins, it changes the equation a little bit. Cause 0:02:27.130 --> 0:02:30.030 I do think obviously it didn't hold true this year 0:02:30.169 --> 0:02:33.590 and we'll see if this changes in the future, but. 0:02:33.830 --> 0:02:34.649 Over the last. 0:02:35.430 --> 0:02:38.850 Several years as the Dodgers went back to back world 0:02:38.870 --> 0:02:42.710 series and then made another NLCS. They just had enough 0:02:43.250 --> 0:02:47.829 depth to get to the world series deal with injuries and, 0:02:48.410 --> 0:02:50.430 you know, bad, like whatever it is, they had enough 0:02:50.510 --> 0:02:54.210 depth across their roster, their 40 man roster. in order 0:02:54.230 --> 0:02:58.460 to kind of supplement areas where other teams would potentially have, 0:02:59.010 --> 0:03:03.880 you know, a pretty big hole. That said, I think 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:09.919 you look at the current Brewers roster and how it's constructed, 0:03:11.180 --> 0:03:14.840 that the unknown variable with the Dodgers, and I think 0:03:14.860 --> 0:03:17.600 this has to be part of the conversation, JJ, is 0:03:18.020 --> 0:03:21.980 the potential looming salary cap. Because it may take a 0:03:22.060 --> 0:03:26.389 while for teams to kind of like ramp down but 0:03:26.430 --> 0:03:30.350 i would imagine there'll probably be some initial threshold they 0:03:30.389 --> 0:03:32.950 have to go under whether that's a kiosk or hernandez 0:03:32.990 --> 0:03:35.500 or someone like that it's going to hurt some of 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:38.240 that major league veteran depth that i think has helped 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:42.180 carry them so that i think the brewers are positioned 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:45.119 great in terms of being able to maybe even add 0:03:45.420 --> 0:03:48.210 on or take on more salary as these players get 0:03:48.250 --> 0:03:52.230 older etc and get closer to free agency they have 0:03:52.270 --> 0:03:55.860 a pretty young core And they have young core impact 0:03:55.900 --> 0:03:59.360 players like a Jackson Churio. We've really seen take another 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:01.420 step forward here in the world series. I know it's 0:04:01.460 --> 0:04:05.220 a small sample size, but the moment has never looked 0:04:05.260 --> 0:04:08.750 too big for him. And he's had great moments all 0:04:09.270 --> 0:04:13.470 throughout these playoffs, right? Even the ball, you know, the 0:04:13.490 --> 0:04:16.390 tie France near home run way back at the beginning 0:04:16.410 --> 0:04:19.010 of the playoffs that went off of the roof. He 0:04:19.050 --> 0:04:22.140 was smart enough to get under it, catch it and be, 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:23.979 and then, you know, was able to record the out. 0:04:24.610 --> 0:04:26.810 All these little things have just added up that I 0:04:26.870 --> 0:04:30.900 think we're not even scraping the surface of what his 0:04:31.020 --> 0:04:34.860 ceiling is as a player, but we're starting to get 0:04:34.960 --> 0:04:38.500 hints and we're starting to see that, oh yeah, he 0:04:38.540 --> 0:04:40.080 was super, super young. 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:40.860 For a major leaguer. 0:04:41.180 --> 0:04:43.200 And when we look back over the next five years, 0:04:43.260 --> 0:04:46.630 he probably would be historically young for a major leaguer 0:04:47.029 --> 0:04:50.130 and the type of production he's putting up. Next year, 0:04:50.190 --> 0:04:53.409 the year after, we might see him hit another level 0:04:53.630 --> 0:04:56.650 in the regular season. That makes them even better. They 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:59.860 have one of the best catchers in baseball, an emotional leader, 0:04:59.920 --> 0:05:02.280 I think, to an extent as well. They have a 0:05:02.380 --> 0:05:05.340 great young pitching staff that they have control over. I 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.600 think some of those guys, Miz Jarowski, obviously, this is 0:05:09.660 --> 0:05:10.620 a ceiling kind of season. 0:05:10.790 --> 0:05:12.370 You can't go beyond this. 0:05:13.630 --> 0:05:16.390 Could he be a little worse and still be great? Absolutely. 0:05:16.470 --> 0:05:20.560 But Robert Gasser... could be better a year from now. 0:05:20.820 --> 0:05:23.900 Aaron Ashby could be maybe in this rotation a year 0:05:23.960 --> 0:05:28.020 from now and could be a really valuable piece. The 0:05:28.060 --> 0:05:32.220 bullpen's good. They identify pitching. 0:05:31.900 --> 0:05:33.240 And develop it really well. 0:05:33.620 --> 0:05:36.430 That's been consistent, whether it's even older veterans that have 0:05:36.460 --> 0:05:40.710 come in and had excellent seasons for them kind of 0:05:40.790 --> 0:05:43.530 out of nowhere. They've done that for a while. I 0:05:43.550 --> 0:05:45.890 don't think that's going to change. They use numbers and 0:05:45.970 --> 0:05:49.170 analytics consistently. as well, if not better than any other 0:05:49.210 --> 0:05:52.170 team in the game, I think as far as regular 0:05:52.210 --> 0:05:54.710 season wins, I still think if we're looking the next 0:05:54.790 --> 0:05:57.390 two to three years, they're going to ramp, they're going to, 0:05:57.740 --> 0:05:59.400 they're going to stack a lot of wins. They won 0:05:59.620 --> 0:06:03.120 what 97 last year and 103 this year. 0:06:04.120 --> 0:06:06.700 So the average pretty easy here. I know percentages, Dan 0:06:06.779 --> 0:06:12.550 Orlovsky it's a 200 that's two, 100%. So they've, They've 0:06:12.570 --> 0:06:14.589 won 100 games multiple times. 0:06:14.750 --> 0:06:17.270 If you go over the last three years, this is 0:06:17.310 --> 0:06:20.729 the part that I'm going to say take the salary 0:06:20.750 --> 0:06:23.880 cap out of it. If we stayed with the current structure, 0:06:24.660 --> 0:06:26.380 I still think the Brewers are going to win more 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:29.100 games over the next three years. And here's why. One, 0:06:29.460 --> 0:06:32.420 I'll start with kind of where you went. They've won 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:34.490 more games over the past three years than the Dodgers. 0:06:35.130 --> 0:06:37.710 This is not something where we're going, oh, looking ahead 0:06:37.750 --> 0:06:40.950 and go, oh, they might get there. No, they've already 0:06:40.970 --> 0:06:42.529 been there. They had a better record than the Dodgers 0:06:42.550 --> 0:06:44.310 this year. They had a better record than the Dodgers 0:06:44.350 --> 0:06:47.620 last year. Between those two years, two years where they've 0:06:47.630 --> 0:06:49.180 had a better record, the Dodgers did have a better 0:06:49.220 --> 0:06:52.080 record three years ago. The key part of this, though, 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:56.620 is you just mentioned it. Churrio is an ascending player. 0:06:56.720 --> 0:07:00.940 As great as he is, he should continue to be better. 0:07:01.720 --> 0:07:06.240 Cooper Pratt, ascending player. Luis Lara, ascending player. Jesus Bidet, 0:07:06.300 --> 0:07:08.080 who I'm going to put, you know, I know he's 0:07:08.100 --> 0:07:10.480 not on the big league roster yet, but ascending player 0:07:10.520 --> 0:07:12.620 who should be a very key part of their team 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:16.050 kind of going forward. And when you look at the 0:07:16.110 --> 0:07:20.190 Dodgers lineup, right, pitching aside, but you look at the lineup, 0:07:21.450 --> 0:07:24.410 I'm going to put Josue DiPaola in there, like Jesus Bidet. 0:07:24.510 --> 0:07:29.950 This is another premium hitter. That's an ascending player. Who's 0:07:29.990 --> 0:07:35.640 the other member of the Dodgers lineup who's an ascending player, 0:07:35.700 --> 0:07:39.870 someone that you say in 2029 should be a better 0:07:39.950 --> 0:07:43.110 player than they are in 2026, in 2028 should be 0:07:43.150 --> 0:07:46.810 a better player. Alex Freeland, who's kind of a part-time 0:07:46.830 --> 0:07:49.070 player for them. I don't know if I could say, 0:07:49.090 --> 0:07:50.910 I think Andy Pahez is kind of like we said 0:07:50.930 --> 0:07:53.810 with Mizorowski. I think this is Andy Pahez at kind 0:07:53.830 --> 0:07:56.960 of his peak out I think that if you said, okay, 0:07:56.980 --> 0:07:58.940 who are guys who are at their, like, you just 0:07:58.980 --> 0:08:00.840 want them to sustain this, but they're at a very 0:08:00.880 --> 0:08:04.890 high level and sustainable. Bryce Terang is at a exceptionally 0:08:04.930 --> 0:08:07.650 high level right now for the Brewers. Joey Ortiz is 0:08:07.690 --> 0:08:09.810 at a high level. He's a good defender, you know, 0:08:09.830 --> 0:08:12.690 like kind of guy. Contreras, as you said, that is 0:08:12.750 --> 0:08:15.270 a cornerstone guy. Now he's got one more year before 0:08:15.300 --> 0:08:18.000 he has free agency. So that could obviously be a wrinkle. 0:08:18.580 --> 0:08:21.120 I would say Paz is there for the Dodgers. I 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:24.370 would say, As bad as this season was, Kyle Tucker 0:08:24.530 --> 0:08:27.890 should be at that point right now. So maybe next 0:08:27.910 --> 0:08:30.950 year is a bounce back. But here's the key thing 0:08:30.970 --> 0:08:33.410 when we go to the lineup. Okay, now let's talk 0:08:33.429 --> 0:08:37.730 about guys who realistically, you're hoping they slowly decline, but 0:08:38.010 --> 0:08:40.710 players who are in the decline phase of their career. 0:08:41.830 --> 0:08:45.270 For the Brewers, I think that's Christian Yellich. That's the 0:08:45.290 --> 0:08:48.230 end of the list. That's the only guy that you 0:08:48.270 --> 0:08:51.130 would project right now to be in their lineup next year. 0:08:51.580 --> 0:08:55.700 who will be on the wrong side of 30. Dodgers, 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:59.540 Will Smith, who great player, but has been battling injuries, 0:08:59.580 --> 0:09:01.420 has not been the same as much because of that. 0:09:01.960 --> 0:09:04.160 Freddie Freeman, who's nearing free agency again after a year, 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:08.240 but obviously is in the decline phase. Mookie Betts, incredible player, 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:13.440 but hitting his mid-30s now. Max Muncy, who has held 0:09:13.540 --> 0:09:16.880 off father time about as well as anybody, but again, 0:09:16.900 --> 0:09:20.900 is quite old. Shohei Otani, whose body is starting to 0:09:20.970 --> 0:09:23.530 betray him a little bit as he's in his 30s now. 0:09:23.950 --> 0:09:29.689 Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edmond. That's the guys, to work the numbers, 0:09:29.890 --> 0:09:35.180 that is $ 225 million of salary next year that is 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:41.060 tied to declining players in the lineup. I think when 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:43.930 you look at the Dodgers have a great farm system, 0:09:44.470 --> 0:09:48.410 but Brewers and Dodgers, neither of them are going to 0:09:48.429 --> 0:09:51.330 be like, okay, this is the year that we say 0:09:51.350 --> 0:09:56.470 it's gonna be depala and sorota and you know uh 0:09:57.370 --> 0:10:01.069 we're okay well okay it would be you know we're 0:10:01.130 --> 0:10:04.580 gonna have three prospect outfielders now we're going to have 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:08.120 morales you know somewhere in the infield we're gonna you 0:10:08.880 --> 0:10:11.140 you're just not gonna you know that we're gonna dabble 0:10:11.179 --> 0:10:13.620 on second base you know experiment has worked well we're 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:16.170 putting a second base you're just not going to turn 0:10:16.220 --> 0:10:18.580 it all over with a hundred wind, a team that 0:10:18.740 --> 0:10:21.280 contends every year to all prospects. You're going to work 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:24.160 in one, two, three here, you know, one year, one there, 0:10:24.179 --> 0:10:27.360 you're going to make some trades, but the brewers have 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:29.860 as much, if not more prospect depth and upper level 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:34.000 prospect depth. Didn't the Dodgers. And as you said, they've 0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:38.920 got a rotation that is younger and on the ascent again, 0:10:39.090 --> 0:10:42.570 in many ways, I do think it's not crazy to see. 0:10:42.590 --> 0:10:45.780 Like I will say, if that's the case, When you 0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:48.160 talk about, again, they've got to win another World Series 0:10:48.179 --> 0:10:51.290 like the Dodgers did to be a dynasty. But they've 0:10:51.330 --> 0:10:53.250 just had a three-year stretch where if you look over 0:10:53.290 --> 0:10:55.850 the past three years, they've had a better record. If 0:10:55.870 --> 0:10:59.770 they did that for the next three, that would be remarkable. 0:11:00.510 --> 0:11:03.400 And I think it's not crazy at all. The best 0:11:03.420 --> 0:11:05.820 way I can put it is maybe I'm wrong. Maybe 0:11:05.860 --> 0:11:10.680 you're wrong. But I think it's in discussion that the 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:15.290 Brewers are not only a team that is– the mountaintop 0:11:15.340 --> 0:11:18.740 right now but for all we've heard about how you 0:11:18.780 --> 0:11:21.720 know no well but then you know you quickly fall 0:11:21.820 --> 0:11:24.260 off of it unless you have the resources to do 0:11:24.300 --> 0:11:26.820 this i think the brewers are a team that might 0:11:26.860 --> 0:11:29.450 have the ability sustainability and partly i say that because 0:11:29.470 --> 0:11:31.670 they've been here for most of the last eight years 0:11:32.110 --> 0:11:35.590 just knocking on the door but anything else you want 0:11:35.610 --> 0:11:38.130 to add before we dive into the ml top tens. 0:11:39.370 --> 0:11:42.390 No i i think you you wrapped it up nicely 0:11:42.550 --> 0:11:46.190 and uh You're just a well-run organization, you know? 0:11:47.130 --> 0:11:49.010 So, okay. When we get back from the break, we 0:11:49.050 --> 0:11:52.290 are going to dive into six or seven players who 0:11:52.390 --> 0:11:54.780 we learned things about as we were doing our NL 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:57.439 Top 10 Prospect Rankings. We'll do that right after the 0:11:57.460 --> 0:11:57.740 quick break. 0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:03.400 You know those pieces in your closet that you just 0:12:03.500 --> 0:12:06.460 end up wearing constantly? That's pretty much become quints for me. 0:12:06.940 --> 0:12:09.069 I've talked before about how much I genuinely love their 0:12:09.110 --> 0:12:12.130 wool and cotton sweaters. They're comfortable, they look great, and 0:12:12.150 --> 0:12:13.790 they're the kind of thing I can throw on without 0:12:13.830 --> 0:12:15.839 really having to think about it. And this summer, I 0:12:15.910 --> 0:12:18.620 actually expanded my quints rotation with one of their cotton 0:12:18.660 --> 0:12:21.100 t-shirts which has very quickly become one of those shirts 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:24.939 I'm constantly reaching for because it's just ridiculously comfortable. That's 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:27.880 really what Quince does well. They focus on high-quality wardrobe 0:12:27.900 --> 0:12:32.790 staples made with premium materials like 100% Mongolian cashmere, organic cotton, 0:12:32.929 --> 0:12:36.330 and merino wool. Everything is timeless and versatile, so these 0:12:36.450 --> 0:12:39.050 aren't pieces you wear twice and forget about. They're designed 0:12:39.090 --> 0:12:43.329 to become staples. Their 100% Mongolian cashmere sweater started at 0:12:43.370 --> 0:12:45.890 just $ 60, so you're getting the softness and quality you'd 0:12:45.910 --> 0:12:48.689 expect from a luxury brand without the luxury price tag. 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:51.340 And as the weather starts to cool down, they also 0:12:51.380 --> 0:12:54.819 have premium down jackets and classic wool outerwear that make 0:12:54.860 --> 0:12:56.580 it easy to build on the rest of your fall 0:12:56.940 --> 0:13:01.010 and winter wardrobe. Everything at Quince is priced 50 to 80% 0:13:01.010 --> 0:13:04.230 less than similar brands. They work directly with ethical factories 0:13:04.330 --> 0:13:07.010 and cut out the middleman, so you're paying for high quality, 0:13:07.250 --> 0:13:09.929 not brand markup. And I can personally vouch for it 0:13:09.950 --> 0:13:12.490 at this point. I've gotten the sweaters, I've gotten the shirts, 0:13:12.790 --> 0:13:15.050 and Quince has legitimately become one of the first places 0:13:15.090 --> 0:13:17.230 I look when I need something new. It's not just 0:13:17.270 --> 0:13:20.210 clothing either. Quince brings the same approach to everything they 0:13:20.250 --> 0:13:23.730 make from hotel quality bedding and bath to kitchen essentials 0:13:23.850 --> 0:13:27.870 and thoughtfully designed furniture. Find your next fall favorites at Quince. 0:13:28.270 --> 0:13:30.750 Download the Quince app for app exclusive offers or go 0:13:30.790 --> 0:13:34.170 to quince.com. Get free shipping on your order and 365 0:13:34.170 --> 0:13:37.220 day returns. Now available in Canada and the UK too. 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:39.700 And when Quince asks where you heard about them, let 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:41.880 them know it was Baseball America. It's the best way 0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:42.520 to support the show. 0:13:47.130 --> 0:13:49.929 So, Jeff, a lot of reporting involved in this, a 0:13:49.990 --> 0:13:52.360 lot of watching players, a lot of analysis, a lot 0:13:52.390 --> 0:13:56.439 of data, a lot of everything. But I thought I 0:13:56.880 --> 0:14:00.380 had a piece up at Baseball America, I think last 0:14:00.460 --> 0:14:05.820 week now, that kind of had something really notable in it. 0:14:05.830 --> 0:14:10.010 Because if you looked at D'Angelo Cinch's first season with 0:14:10.030 --> 0:14:13.870 the Cardinals overall, you would say, okay, there was some 0:14:13.890 --> 0:14:17.600 pluses and some minuses. But what did you learn? What 0:14:17.620 --> 0:14:22.420 did you find that kind of could point out that 0:14:22.420 --> 0:14:25.540 2027 might be better than the totality of 26? 0:14:25.540 --> 0:14:32.420 I think it was once he stopped switch pitching, which 0:14:33.180 --> 0:14:36.580 let's back it up a year, JJ. There were a 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:41.420 couple of starts at the end of the year with 0:14:41.480 --> 0:14:45.660 the Mariners, I think in AA, Arkansas. where he only 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:49.660 threw right-handed and they were better. And the organization came 0:14:49.740 --> 0:14:52.040 out after the season, the Mariners at this point in time, 0:14:52.070 --> 0:14:56.590 because he was still with Seattle says, Hey, he's going 0:14:56.610 --> 0:14:58.410 to be a right-handed pitcher. That's how we're going to 0:14:58.430 --> 0:15:01.490 develop them going forward. We're going to kill the switch 0:15:01.530 --> 0:15:04.070 pitching experiment. And I, and I think we did a 0:15:04.090 --> 0:15:07.350 good job throughout the 2025 season, JJ of kind of 0:15:07.410 --> 0:15:11.730 covering it. Cause it was, I wouldn't say completely unprecedented, 0:15:11.890 --> 0:15:15.470 but I think for the level of prospect that Shincha was, 0:15:16.410 --> 0:15:20.610 where Seattle's pitching development and how it was viewed, especially 0:15:20.650 --> 0:15:23.760 at that moment in time, it was kind of a 0:15:23.790 --> 0:15:26.800 perfect match for like, can this work? And is this 0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:28.420 going to be the guy that does it? And it's 0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:32.380 going to be unique and interesting and powerful from the 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:37.080 right and crafty from the left. And he's going to 0:15:37.100 --> 0:15:38.619 play the splits game and this is it. 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:43.320 It didn't work. They started initially in April of 2025. 0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:47.190 If you remember, it was mostly right-handed starts, and then 0:15:47.210 --> 0:15:51.870 they would do those weird lefty-only relief outings on the side, 0:15:51.890 --> 0:15:55.470 and they were always bad. Heard his numbers a lot. 0:15:55.770 --> 0:15:57.930 They stopped doing that, and then they went to like 0:15:58.110 --> 0:16:02.540 one to three lefty batters per outing. He gets traded 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:05.300 to the Cardinals. After it's already scrapped, they kind of 0:16:05.340 --> 0:16:08.380 revive it. They go forward with him as a switch pitchers. 0:16:09.430 --> 0:16:12.170 the big difference in his season for me and what 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:14.880 changed my perspective on Chincha and got him into the 0:16:14.900 --> 0:16:16.820 top 10 and maybe moved him up. And I wonder 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:20.600 if I'm not high enough was August 6th. From that 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:26.300 point on his numbers significantly improved. 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:31.670 Um, the, the walk rate, um, overall. 0:16:31.150 --> 0:16:39.630 Heavily, um, he, he, started to, um, I think it 0:16:39.670 --> 0:16:41.000 was a, uh, excuse me. 0:16:41.020 --> 0:16:43.140 So August 6th was his last start. 0:16:44.580 --> 0:16:44.800 Sorry. 0:16:44.820 --> 0:16:47.380 I said someone threw a basketball at my desk. Um, 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:49.680 August 6th was his last start as a righty. 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:54.630 So it was August 13th on last seven starts over 0:16:54.630 --> 0:16:57.530 143 batters, 28.7%. Um, whiff rate, uh, his AAA numbers 0:16:57.590 --> 0:17:01.090 prior to that, um, from July 19th onto the August 0:17:01.110 --> 0:17:10.609 6th was a 24.7%. percent strikeout rate 7.7 percent walk 0:17:10.630 --> 0:17:14.670 rate the previous starts uh before that in triple a 0:17:14.650 --> 0:17:19.970 18.5 percent walk rate and if you remember and it 0:17:20.010 --> 0:17:22.330 was funny as i was writing this i went i 0:17:22.369 --> 0:17:24.510 remember writing the wires this night or you write in 0:17:24.530 --> 0:17:26.350 the wires and let's talk about it the next morning 0:17:26.770 --> 0:17:29.690 his first start is right-handed only pitcher was august 13th 0:17:29.710 --> 0:17:31.970 he struck out 11 in that start if you recall 0:17:32.369 --> 0:17:34.369 and i remember i was writing about him being righty 0:17:34.450 --> 0:17:38.560 only in that start yada yada yada Um, the stuff 0:17:38.580 --> 0:17:40.119 from the left side just wasn't good. 0:17:40.220 --> 0:17:41.480 The experiment didn't work. 0:17:42.430 --> 0:17:47.209 The funny thing is his stuff took a big jump 0:17:48.210 --> 0:17:52.830 once he stops pitching lefty. So his zone percentage in 0:17:52.869 --> 0:17:57.440 his fastball went from 52% to 65%. It's a bigger 0:17:57.520 --> 0:17:58.160 sample too. 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:01.020 Okay. His average fastball. 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:06.730 Velocity, JJ 95.9% to 90, excuse me, percent. 95.9 miles 0:18:06.750 --> 0:18:10.190 per hour average, I know, to 96.4 miles per hour average. 0:18:10.230 --> 0:18:21.530 His max jumped to 99.1. a similar ride on the fastball, 0:18:21.910 --> 0:18:24.520 a little bit more cut. The whiff rate was stagnant. 0:18:25.180 --> 0:18:28.920 The slider took a really big jump. Um, the shape 0:18:29.060 --> 0:18:32.639 added more sweep. It added more depth. His whiff rate, uh, 0:18:32.660 --> 0:18:37.860 went from 27% to 39% after that period in time. Um, 0:18:38.300 --> 0:18:40.310 he started using the change up a lot more. It 0:18:40.350 --> 0:18:43.190 had been a 9% usage pitch cause he did face 0:18:43.810 --> 0:18:44.750 some lefty. 0:18:44.450 --> 0:18:46.490 Batters as a writer. A lot of them, honestly. 0:18:47.230 --> 0:18:52.210 Um, 15% usage after the switch, 87 mile per hour, 0:18:52.350 --> 0:18:56.800 so the velocity went up. The whiff rate stayed about 0:18:56.859 --> 0:18:58.840 the same, but he used it a lot more, which 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:01.320 I think speaks a lot to it. The other pitch 0:19:01.340 --> 0:19:04.860 that he added into his arsenal was a mid-90s sinker. 0:19:05.900 --> 0:19:09.050 Not crazy whiff rate, but it gave him a different look. 0:19:09.070 --> 0:19:12.710 He used it against 49 of 52. 0:19:12.070 --> 0:19:13.890 Right-handed batters over that period in time. 0:19:14.330 --> 0:19:17.429 So it became a major part of his arsenal in 0:19:17.510 --> 0:19:18.609 right-on-right matchups. 0:19:20.119 --> 0:19:22.439 It's a different sort of mix. 0:19:24.900 --> 0:19:27.859 And I think when you look at it, he's got 0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:32.060 a mid to high nineties four seam fastball with great 0:19:32.100 --> 0:19:35.290 release traits. It's a flatter plane, lower release height, et cetera. 0:19:35.900 --> 0:19:38.510 He's got a good hard slider that gets whiffs and 0:19:38.550 --> 0:19:40.949 really started to play off of that four seam fastball. 0:19:41.430 --> 0:19:45.130 He's now got two other pitches that have heavy arm 0:19:45.150 --> 0:19:49.460 side movement in the sinker and the changeup. to neutralize 0:19:49.500 --> 0:19:52.899 some of those offhanded batters. I think he's a different guy. 0:19:52.920 --> 0:19:57.600 He led the minors and strikeouts JJ because he pitched 0:19:57.640 --> 0:19:59.199 a lot of innings durable. 0:19:59.500 --> 0:20:00.240 He's durable. 0:20:01.180 --> 0:20:03.869 And I think now that he's focused on one side 0:20:03.900 --> 0:20:06.669 of the one side of the plate, right? Consistently because 0:20:06.710 --> 0:20:09.990 he wasn't doing it that much. It was onesie twosie 0:20:10.030 --> 0:20:13.050 kinds of things. And it threw off everything else. And 0:20:13.070 --> 0:20:16.270 I think you can see in this larger sample size, 0:20:16.750 --> 0:20:20.520 he was doing things in terms of throwing strikes, missing bats, 0:20:20.650 --> 0:20:24.300 mixing up his arsenal, mixing shapes, adding new pitches, all 0:20:24.340 --> 0:20:27.240 the development stuff that might've been lost over that year 0:20:27.300 --> 0:20:29.040 and a half where he was kind of chasing this. 0:20:30.400 --> 0:20:31.780 He made up a lot of time and he did 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:34.859 it in the minors highest level with auto zones and 0:20:34.880 --> 0:20:37.540 the major league ball. I think that's something also to 0:20:37.580 --> 0:20:40.400 kind of bring up. So I really walked away being like, 0:20:40.460 --> 0:20:44.700 maybe he's not a top 100 prospect, but he's like 0:20:44.780 --> 0:20:48.780 not far outside of the top 100 for me. And 0:20:48.920 --> 0:20:51.359 I think it's, you know, Takoa Roby, kind of the 0:20:51.400 --> 0:20:52.980 same thing. Some of the stuff that we've seen in 0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:57.680 AFL from him, I think has been good. But that 0:20:57.740 --> 0:21:00.700 Cardinal system, you know, the more work I do, JJ, 0:21:00.740 --> 0:21:02.340 the more excited I am. 0:21:02.260 --> 0:21:04.199 About this Cardinal system. 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:06.540 The top 10 was tough just in terms of like, 0:21:06.970 --> 0:21:09.710 there's maybe four or five guys right outside of the 0:21:09.750 --> 0:21:13.100 top 10 that are slam dunk top 10 prospects and 0:21:13.740 --> 0:21:16.600 probably all my other systems. And then that's top 10 0:21:16.600 --> 0:21:19.399 is a pretty good top 10. 0:21:19.400 --> 0:21:20.600 The one thing I was going to ask, like I, 0:21:20.780 --> 0:21:25.020 this makes perfect sense because as much as it's fun 0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:27.530 to talk about two way guys and do both. And 0:21:27.570 --> 0:21:30.810 it's fun to talk about switch pitchers. It's really hard. 0:21:31.450 --> 0:21:35.840 And to put your point, Cinch has never been a 0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:38.060 good pitcher as a lefty. 0:21:38.080 --> 0:21:38.939 Yeah. 0:21:39.560 --> 0:21:42.439 He's been wild. He doesn't throw, you know, he's not 0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:45.640 in the zone a lot. It's kind of been, and 0:21:46.440 --> 0:21:49.080 working on that has to take away from your ability. 0:21:49.119 --> 0:21:52.360 Like that's where he was always kind of fascinating. Cause 0:21:52.380 --> 0:21:55.770 he was the first switch pitcher who the switch pitching, 0:21:55.890 --> 0:21:59.550 what Pat Venditti is a switch pitcher, because that was 0:22:00.150 --> 0:22:02.530 his path to the big leagues. If you took it 0:22:02.570 --> 0:22:05.620 away and said, pick either arm. It's like neither arm 0:22:05.660 --> 0:22:11.030 was good enough to get others out without the platoon advantage. 0:22:12.050 --> 0:22:15.230 Sinja has a better chance of getting lefties out as 0:22:15.290 --> 0:22:18.830 a righty than he does as a lefty. It's going 0:22:18.850 --> 0:22:21.530 to be very interesting to see what that means going forward. 0:22:22.510 --> 0:22:24.489 I think the other thing that just stands out for 0:22:24.550 --> 0:22:29.090