1
00:00:00,520 --> 00:00:02,560
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, I'm Matthew Freeman, Matt F.

2
00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:02,960
Speaker 2: The Oracle.

3
00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:05,080
Speaker 3: Welcome to the Betty Pros Podcast, brought to you by

4
00:00:05,080 --> 00:00:06,880
Speaker 3: bet MGM, where you can get a risk free bet

5
00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:08,640
Speaker 3: of up two thousand dollars when you use the highly

6
00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:11,200
Speaker 3: original promo code betty Pros with your first deposit.

7
00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:13,680
Speaker 1: All right here with me to talk NFL.

8
00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:16,200
Speaker 3: Week fourteen market movement and power ratings, as well as

9
00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,400
Speaker 3: Thursday Night football as Kevin Cole, host of the excellent

10
00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:23,880
Speaker 3: Unexpected Points podcast It's probably my favorite podcast, the proprietor

11
00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,640
Speaker 3: of the new Unexpected Points newsletter whichever you want you

12
00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:30,120
Speaker 3: to subscribe to, and the lord of the adjusted scores. Kevin,

13
00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:32,879
Speaker 3: you're on the show in week four I guess you know.

14
00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:35,160
Speaker 3: Ten weeks is evidently the longest I can go without

15
00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:37,440
Speaker 3: talking with you with the microphone in front of my face.

16
00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:39,000
Speaker 1: Thanks for returning to the show.

17
00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,320
Speaker 2: Hey, great to be back, Matt. Yeah, it's been a

18
00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:42,800
Speaker 2: while here.

19
00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:46,159
Speaker 4: So I was sitting by the phone, as we all

20
00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:49,360
Speaker 4: sit by our phones that we don't have anymore, that

21
00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:53,000
Speaker 4: we just sit by waiting for your call until this point.

22
00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:55,560
Speaker 4: So now I can I can breathe again, and I'm

23
00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:56,440
Speaker 4: here and I'm ready.

24
00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:59,360
Speaker 3: All right, Well, since you were last on the show,

25
00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,279
Speaker 3: what are the analytical things that you were working on?

26
00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:04,360
Speaker 1: Anything new that you've got cooking up?

27
00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:08,080
Speaker 4: Not I mean new, I mean well, there's a little

28
00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:12,600
Speaker 4: bit a news breaking news here for those who do

29
00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,720
Speaker 4: not follow me on the Twitter Bob, which is probably

30
00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:18,880
Speaker 4: everyone there. I'm no longer at PFF, so that's a

31
00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:21,200
Speaker 4: little bit of a new news. And I have started,

32
00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:27,440
Speaker 4: as all great thought leaders across this nation, own my

33
00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:29,720
Speaker 4: own substack, just because I really don't have any idea

34
00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:33,120
Speaker 4: what I'm going to do here in week thirteen going forward.

35
00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:34,880
Speaker 2: So I've already published a couple things on there.

36
00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:37,840
Speaker 4: I have the adjusted score stuff, which I just discussed

37
00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,959
Speaker 4: via my podcast before, which will hopefully be continuing in

38
00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:44,040
Speaker 4: the near future that I'm now publishing a little bit

39
00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,880
Speaker 4: more of that stuff on the sub stack.

40
00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:48,880
Speaker 2: I put everything out for week thirteen. There.

41
00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,160
Speaker 4: I made available a Google sheet that everyone can get

42
00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,360
Speaker 4: to that has all of the adjusted scores and the

43
00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,160
Speaker 4: relevant metrics for the entire season, and then we'll continue

44
00:01:57,160 --> 00:01:59,200
Speaker 4: to update that as the season's going on. So I've

45
00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:02,559
Speaker 4: heard and I use it myself for some betting related stuff,

46
00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:04,000
Speaker 4: and I've heard from some other people that they find

47
00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:06,240
Speaker 4: it useful to try to get a little bit of

48
00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,680
Speaker 4: an adjustment for some of the high variance types of

49
00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,440
Speaker 4: plays fumble, luck, recovery, things like that to get a

50
00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:13,639
Speaker 4: better gauge of team strength.

51
00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:16,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that, and I mean I listen to

52
00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,639
Speaker 3: the pod every week, and that is a general way

53
00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:22,320
Speaker 3: in which I use it because I have my power

54
00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:26,840
Speaker 3: ratings and they are numbers driven, but there is an

55
00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:30,560
Speaker 3: override element to it, and so I H yeah, I'll

56
00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:32,120
Speaker 3: always listen to what you have to say, you know,

57
00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,240
Speaker 3: think about the ways in which I want to adjust

58
00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,320
Speaker 3: or not adjust the different power ratings that I have.

59
00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, everyone be sure to check that out at

60
00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:43,359
Speaker 3: Kevin's substack Unexpected Points right.

61
00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,520
Speaker 4: Unexpected Points dot substack dot com correct or you know,

62
00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:50,560
Speaker 4: check me out on Twitter. Goddamn Elon won't allow me

63
00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,680
Speaker 4: to change my handle. So if Elon, if you're listening,

64
00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:55,960
Speaker 4: I'm sure you are, can we open it up here

65
00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,400
Speaker 4: because I'm verified. Don't ask me how that even happened

66
00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,160
Speaker 4: in the first place. But the garification process, I guess

67
00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,040
Speaker 4: they're too worried about impersonation going on right now in

68
00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:06,120
Speaker 4: some sort of way. So now that I'm verified. I

69
00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:08,080
Speaker 4: can't change my name. It doesn't really matter. My name

70
00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,960
Speaker 4: wouldn't change, but I can't change my handle also, and

71
00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:14,760
Speaker 4: you know it, PFF is part of the ritualistic ceremony

72
00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:17,639
Speaker 4: when you become a person an employee at PFF.

73
00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:19,440
Speaker 2: They you know, they they you know, the.

74
00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,320
Speaker 4: Whole blood letting, all that stuff goes on, and then

75
00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:24,359
Speaker 4: they also force you to change your handle and put

76
00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:26,520
Speaker 4: PFF in there somewhere. So now I'm stuck with that,

77
00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:29,040
Speaker 4: even though I'm no longer at the company. Do you

78
00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,040
Speaker 4: have old BFF, sorry.

79
00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,520
Speaker 3: The PFF, you have the PFF brand or the PFF

80
00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:36,440
Speaker 3: tattoo on you anywhere or able to that.

81
00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,760
Speaker 4: It's actually a digital implanting. I have to have that

82
00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:41,800
Speaker 4: removed also as part of the process.

83
00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:46,360
Speaker 3: All right, Well, moving on to what happened in week thirteen.

84
00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:49,720
Speaker 3: Uh you know some teams that moved up in the

85
00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,760
Speaker 3: power ratings for me, And let me just open up

86
00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:56,160
Speaker 3: my spreadsheet. He'll hear the Bengals big win over the

87
00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:00,720
Speaker 3: Chiefs there. Uh so they've moved up in entire point

88
00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:04,160
Speaker 3: for me in the power ratings. The Eagles big win

89
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,480
Speaker 3: over the Tennessee Titans. Although you know it's you know,

90
00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:10,320
Speaker 3: it's they've moved up a point for me, but it's

91
00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:13,880
Speaker 3: debatable as to like how quote unquote real the Titans are.

92
00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:16,320
Speaker 1: And then the Lions.

93
00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,120
Speaker 3: They moved up a decent amount for me, not so

94
00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:22,039
Speaker 3: much because I think they're actually a good team, but

95
00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:25,080
Speaker 3: I think they are in the upper class of that

96
00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:29,240
Speaker 3: middle tier of kind of subpar teams, you know what

97
00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,359
Speaker 3: I mean, They might be like the best of the

98
00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,919
Speaker 3: not good teams, and so I've moved them up a

99
00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:39,120
Speaker 3: decent amount in my power ratings since last week. Kevin Ay,

100
00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:43,080
Speaker 3: any thoughts on those teams, the Bengals, the Eagles, the Lions,

101
00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,560
Speaker 3: and then any other teams that kind of caught your

102
00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:50,120
Speaker 3: eye as ones that have changed in your perspective since

103
00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:51,559
Speaker 3: last week because of what we saw.

104
00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:54,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean for the Bengals.

105
00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:57,720
Speaker 4: Luckily, for me, it's more of a confirmation of where

106
00:04:57,760 --> 00:04:59,600
Speaker 4: I had them in my power rankings.

107
00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,560
Speaker 2: As opposed to moving them up.

108
00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:03,640
Speaker 4: I mean, they did move up slightly, and they're actually

109
00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,320
Speaker 4: third now in my power rankings, which is probably a

110
00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,360
Speaker 4: little high, having them above Philly and having above Dallas.

111
00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:11,840
Speaker 2: But like I said, they were already very high.

112
00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:13,800
Speaker 4: I think they were in the fifth slot before, and

113
00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,880
Speaker 4: then they jumped over those two having beaten the team

114
00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,400
Speaker 4: that I previously had as number one, the Kansas City Chiefs.

115
00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:21,520
Speaker 2: So they're up there.

116
00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,560
Speaker 4: I mean I affiliate at number four, where they've been

117
00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:26,480
Speaker 4: three or four for a while now. I do think

118
00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:31,279
Speaker 4: it helps solidify what they did last week. Defensively, they

119
00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,360
Speaker 4: just completely wiped out Tennessee. I mean they lost trailing

120
00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:36,840
Speaker 4: Burke's early the Titans. But also if you look, their

121
00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:38,839
Speaker 4: success rate in that game was a sub thirty percent

122
00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,800
Speaker 4: success rate, which is just a really really strong effort

123
00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,080
Speaker 4: for them. They weren't based on fluky plays or anything

124
00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,600
Speaker 4: like that, whereas the Cowboys destroyed the Colts. But it

125
00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:50,760
Speaker 4: was a two point game fairly late in this one,

126
00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,919
Speaker 4: and then the floodgates just completely burst open in the

127
00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:57,200
Speaker 4: second half there. And the Lions I have at nineteenth,

128
00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:00,400
Speaker 4: which still might be a little bit low. Honestly for

129
00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,040
Speaker 4: the perception that I have on them, I might even

130
00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:04,720
Speaker 4: move them up a little bit more. But they are

131
00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,360
Speaker 4: someone who's been, you know, rapidly on the rise. They

132
00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,160
Speaker 4: were a team that was unlucky to start the season

133
00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:14,000
Speaker 4: and now has been pretty good the last few weeks.

134
00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:17,640
Speaker 2: Although the one question would be a strength of schedule.

135
00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,040
Speaker 4: You know, competition that they've had so far during this

136
00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:21,520
Speaker 4: run hasn't been that strong.

137
00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:23,400
Speaker 2: But you can only beat who's in front of you.

138
00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:27,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I have the Lions number eighteen. I have

139
00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:30,640
Speaker 3: them half a point below average team on a neutral field.

140
00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:32,920
Speaker 1: What you said there earlier.

141
00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:35,920
Speaker 2: Exactly have a point too. Hey, we're like lockstep here,

142
00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:37,240
Speaker 2: mind meld going on here?

143
00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:41,839
Speaker 3: Okay, you mentioned the team you previously had number one,

144
00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,520
Speaker 3: as the Kansas City Chiefs. So I'm assuming now you

145
00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,479
Speaker 3: powers of deduction that I have, that you move them

146
00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:49,839
Speaker 3: to number two, and that the Bills are now number one.

147
00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:53,040
Speaker 4: No, no, Now the Minnesota Vikings are number one, because

148
00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:53,800
Speaker 4: they're ten and two.

149
00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,520
Speaker 1: My mistake, my mistake. I didn't know who.

150
00:06:58,040 --> 00:06:59,159
Speaker 2: The Yeah, the Bills.

151
00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:03,599
Speaker 4: The Bills are number one, roughly point three points above

152
00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,200
Speaker 4: Kansas City, so they're they're kind of still another tier

153
00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:07,960
Speaker 4: of the of their own, the top two.

154
00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:08,679
Speaker 1: Yeah.

155
00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,280
Speaker 3: So I have Cincinnati at number five, and for me

156
00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:13,400
Speaker 3: you mentioned for you it was more of like a

157
00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:15,480
Speaker 3: confirmation of where you already had them.

158
00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,000
Speaker 1: You know, for me, it's it's kind of.

159
00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:24,200
Speaker 3: Moving above the tier of Miami Baltimore. You know, it's

160
00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:26,320
Speaker 3: now forty nine ers at this point, you know, forty

161
00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,200
Speaker 3: nine ers dropping out, and so you know, every other

162
00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:31,760
Speaker 3: team is kind of moving up because of that. But

163
00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:36,120
Speaker 3: I still have Dallas and Philly a little bit above

164
00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:40,360
Speaker 3: above Cincinnati. But yeah, I don't know Cincinnati.

165
00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,360
Speaker 4: I mean, that's more in line with where with where

166
00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,000
Speaker 4: the markets were. That's basically what it was. It was

167
00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:49,679
Speaker 4: the top two, it was the next three, I guess,

168
00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:53,480
Speaker 4: like the three NFC teams, and then it was this large,

169
00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:56,880
Speaker 4: kind of messy tier underneath there where you could have

170
00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:59,280
Speaker 4: had the Ravens or the Bengals maybe and number one

171
00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:01,440
Speaker 4: on that tier maybe Miami if you really like Miami.

172
00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,000
Speaker 4: My numbers don't like Miami or the Ravens as much.

173
00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:05,800
Speaker 4: So those all those guys were in the mix to

174
00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:07,360
Speaker 4: be the head of that tier. But I do think,

175
00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:09,800
Speaker 4: like you said, via the markets now, and we've seen

176
00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:12,760
Speaker 4: the market movement on you know, next week's games, that

177
00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,120
Speaker 4: the Bengals have definitely gotten that bump approaching now that

178
00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:18,280
Speaker 4: larger second tier at the bottom of the second tier

179
00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:18,880
Speaker 4: according to the.

180
00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:21,440
Speaker 3: Markets, certainly, and I will say that there's a chance

181
00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:25,440
Speaker 3: based on where the market has moved that I didn't

182
00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:30,240
Speaker 3: move Cincinnati high enough, you know, and I probably need

183
00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,240
Speaker 3: to adjust to catch up a little bit with that.

184
00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,400
Speaker 3: The teams that moved down for me, and this is

185
00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,560
Speaker 3: or moved down the most, and this is fairly obvious

186
00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:43,320
Speaker 3: and quarterback driven. You have San Francisco, you know, drop

187
00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,720
Speaker 3: them four points, and honestly, maybe that's not enough. I

188
00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:49,760
Speaker 3: feel like it probably isn't enough because I know you

189
00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:53,040
Speaker 3: are one of the original Jimmy Garoppolo truthers. I can't

190
00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:56,240
Speaker 3: claim that status, but I like, I've liked him quite

191
00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,839
Speaker 3: a bit, Like within the confines of what he's been

192
00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:01,440
Speaker 3: asked to do over the past half decade, within the

193
00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:05,800
Speaker 3: forty nine ers offense, he has executed very well. And

194
00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:10,959
Speaker 3: I think going from him to a seventh round, third

195
00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:17,000
Speaker 3: string mister irrelevant rookie, I think like at the most optimistic,

196
00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,040
Speaker 3: we would expect a four point drop off, but maybe

197
00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:20,959
Speaker 3: it's more like seven.

198
00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:22,080
Speaker 1: So we'll see.

199
00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,280
Speaker 4: I don't think the markets, though, are pricing that in,

200
00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:26,439
Speaker 4: but it's tough to tell, because I guess we'll have

201
00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,920
Speaker 4: to see. I remember I was looking last night, and

202
00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,040
Speaker 4: I think it might have reflected the fact that Tampa

203
00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:35,040
Speaker 4: Bay just looked like such poop. Basically for like ninety

204
00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,600
Speaker 4: five percent of that game, that the movement was not

205
00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:42,280
Speaker 4: that much, you know, post injury in the line on

206
00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:46,400
Speaker 4: that one. I also think San Francisco's defense is just

207
00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:51,079
Speaker 4: more and more power is being built into that side

208
00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,520
Speaker 4: of the power rankings also, So maybe it's a combination

209
00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:55,679
Speaker 4: of those two, but it doesn't seem like the market's

210
00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,560
Speaker 4: pricing in more than you know, I don't know, two,

211
00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:00,400
Speaker 4: maybe three points. I think the market it is kind

212
00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,840
Speaker 4: of between the Garoppolo haters who are like, you just

213
00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,720
Speaker 4: plug anyone into the Shanahan supercomputer and it works, and

214
00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:09,320
Speaker 4: maybe where you and I stand on him.

215
00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:12,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, well the look ahead was six and a half, okay,

216
00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:14,760
Speaker 3: and now it's three and a half. So the market's

217
00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:20,120
Speaker 3: saying three points, and I think I think that's pretty generous,

218
00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:23,720
Speaker 3: you know, I don't know, or I think that's under

219
00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:26,480
Speaker 3: selling the impact of Garoppolo and.

220
00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,120
Speaker 2: Also what the numbers are going through and stuff like that.

221
00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:33,480
Speaker 4: So yeah, yeah, no, I think I think you're right, although.

222
00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:36,440
Speaker 2: You know, there might also be a little bit of a.

223
00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,880
Speaker 4: Feeling and we'll see how the running back situation is

224
00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,960
Speaker 4: working out there. Christian McCaffrey's health, all that sort of stuff.

225
00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:46,920
Speaker 4: Is that maybe they'll just lean more into the running attack. Also,

226
00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:48,960
Speaker 4: as as part of it, I guess the numbers I

227
00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:50,800
Speaker 4: was looking at was more like a two point movement,

228
00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,360
Speaker 4: but maybe they'd already priced in some of this garoppolo

229
00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:54,800
Speaker 4: that I didn't realize it.

230
00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, So another one here that I dropped out, And

231
00:10:58,440 --> 00:10:59,880
Speaker 3: this is more of like a kind of like tech

232
00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,680
Speaker 3: accounting thing, but bumping the rum the Rams down. And

233
00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,280
Speaker 3: so this was just sort of like moving Stafford from

234
00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:09,400
Speaker 3: kind of like short term not on the team to

235
00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:11,400
Speaker 3: long term for the rest.

236
00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:12,800
Speaker 1: Of the season not on the team.

237
00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,880
Speaker 3: So now at this point I have the Rams as

238
00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:20,040
Speaker 3: the number thirty one team in the Power ratings. I think,

239
00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:22,640
Speaker 3: I mean, obviously they're bad. It's the question of like

240
00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:27,200
Speaker 3: how bad are they are they? Do you think this

241
00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:29,440
Speaker 3: this version of what we've seen out of the Rams,

242
00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:30,960
Speaker 3: Do you think they're worse than the Texans?

243
00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:33,600
Speaker 2: No, No one's.

244
00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:34,439
Speaker 1: Worse than the Texans.

245
00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:35,960
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know.

246
00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,160
Speaker 4: I really hate these quarterback changes and everything else that's

247
00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,959
Speaker 4: going on here. My okay, my very like unanalytical thing

248
00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,720
Speaker 4: with the Rams. Even a couple of weeks ago, when

249
00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,440
Speaker 4: Stafford had his first concussion right before he before he

250
00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:51,840
Speaker 4: came back was like, are they just going to pack

251
00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:52,160
Speaker 4: it in?

252
00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:54,000
Speaker 2: Are we going to see packing him in? And we

253
00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:54,640
Speaker 2: didn't see that.

254
00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:57,800
Speaker 4: I don't know if that's a rivalry type of thing

255
00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:00,400
Speaker 4: with the Seahawks, and maybe now we will see the

256
00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:04,200
Speaker 4: true packing in. But for that factor, I would not

257
00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,720
Speaker 4: put them below the Texas. But I'll tell you, like,

258
00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,280
Speaker 4: if you just look at my non adjusted rankings for

259
00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:12,320
Speaker 4: the Rams, so it has all that Stafford in there,

260
00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:14,280
Speaker 4: there's still twenty four.

261
00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:16,840
Speaker 2: Ors, I like, they're just bad. There's a bad team

262
00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:18,640
Speaker 2: even with Stafford. So I don't know.

263
00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:20,680
Speaker 4: I mean, it's not we're not looking at, you know,

264
00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:23,240
Speaker 4: spectacular backup play. But I do think the fact that

265
00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,360
Speaker 4: you know, Wolford or Perkins or whoever, they can move

266
00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:28,360
Speaker 4: a little bit, So maybe that helps the defense at

267
00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,240
Speaker 4: least has talent on there. If they haven't quit yet,

268
00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:33,480
Speaker 4: I don't know that they're a real tough one for

269
00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:34,520
Speaker 4: me to pig down.

270
00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:38,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then one more I didn't put it in

271
00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:42,800
Speaker 3: the outline, but the Baltimore Ravens it seems increasingly likely

272
00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:46,839
Speaker 3: that they will be without without Lamar Jackson this week,

273
00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,880
Speaker 3: and so I haven't bumped them down in the longer

274
00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,080
Speaker 3: term power ratings for the season, but you know, in

275
00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:55,319
Speaker 3: the short term power ratings for this week, I've dropped

276
00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,640
Speaker 3: them down I believe, like four and a half five points.

277
00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:03,880
Speaker 3: Any thought on the Ravens and kind of what you

278
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,720
Speaker 3: make that team to look like without Lamar Jackson.

279
00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:10,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, the offense was starting to stagnate somewhat.

280
00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,840
Speaker 4: Even with Lamar Jackson. The first couple of weeks we

281
00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:19,040
Speaker 4: saw explosive passing plays down the field, explosive runs, and

282
00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:20,960
Speaker 4: that was really what the offense was based on, so

283
00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:22,880
Speaker 4: we knew that was going to regress somewhat. Then you

284
00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:25,520
Speaker 4: had the injuries to Shoan Bateman, who had produced, you know,

285
00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,520
Speaker 4: a handful of those explosive plays. You have Lamar Jackson

286
00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,000
Speaker 4: maybe not getting loose quite as often as he had before.

287
00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:34,520
Speaker 4: And then the offense was, you know, stagnating. There were

288
00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:36,760
Speaker 4: some signs that it might pick back up after Andrews

289
00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,680
Speaker 4: came back from injury there, and now we have the

290
00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,679
Speaker 4: you know, we're flipping over here with Tyler Huntley in there.

291
00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:46,640
Speaker 4: I don't know, I'm just I guess it's just based

292
00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:48,480
Speaker 4: on no vibe.

293
00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:50,400
Speaker 2: This's not a vibe basing. I think people get.

294
00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,080
Speaker 4: Good vibes from Huntley, maybe because his QB wins have

295
00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,040
Speaker 4: been okay when he's come in there, or he's looked functional.

296
00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,120
Speaker 2: But I'm just not buying it. I don't.

297
00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,000
Speaker 4: I don't if you remember, but you know, when Jackson

298
00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,480
Speaker 4: and missed some time in previous seasons, there was kind

299
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:04,160
Speaker 4: of a talk as if Tyler Huntley could be a

300
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:05,960
Speaker 4: starter in the NFL, and I don't know, I just

301
00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:07,880
Speaker 4: don't see that at all. And I feel like they

302
00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:12,920
Speaker 4: have won or been highly competitive in games, very low scoring,

303
00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:15,640
Speaker 4: kind of grinded out type of games when Huntley has

304
00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:19,080
Speaker 4: been there, and that can work for a while.

305
00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:20,600
Speaker 2: But it's yeah, I.

306
00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:23,800
Speaker 4: Would say four points, five points is plenty good enough

307
00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,200
Speaker 4: for me, with my frame of reference being I think

308
00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,920
Speaker 4: the biggest movement movement I've ever seen is maybe seven

309
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,480
Speaker 4: or eight points with Aaron Rodgers being replaced by Tyler

310
00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:32,520
Speaker 4: Huntley back in the day.

311
00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:36,240
Speaker 2: So that's the yeah, I think that's fair. Four or five.

312
00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:37,440
Speaker 1: I think there.

313
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:40,760
Speaker 3: I think there might have been Sorry, who was it

314
00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:41,840
Speaker 3: that you just said right there?

315
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,200
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers and Brett Huntley. Sorry not Tyler Huntley. I got,

316
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:47,320
Speaker 4: I got Tyler of I buy this was back in

317
00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:49,320
Speaker 4: twenty nineteen.

318
00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:53,600
Speaker 2: No, no, no two thousand and yeah, two whatever, no

319
00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:55,160
Speaker 2: two thousands. I don't remember what it was.

320
00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,400
Speaker 4: But whenever he Rogers was out for a game or

321
00:14:57,400 --> 00:14:59,560
Speaker 4: two and Huntley came in, I remember because it was

322
00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:01,400
Speaker 4: painful because I was like a little bit of a

323
00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:04,360
Speaker 4: Brent Brent Hawley truther and it did.

324
00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:04,720
Speaker 2: Not go well.

325
00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:05,160
Speaker 1: Yeah.

326
00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:07,720
Speaker 3: I think there was also a pretty big movement last

327
00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:09,760
Speaker 3: year on Jordan Love too.

328
00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:10,160
Speaker 1: Yeah.

329
00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:16,480
Speaker 3: For yeah, uh, so this line was Baltimore minus four. Uh,

330
00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,000
Speaker 3: and now it's we're talking uh, it has moved all

331
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:20,680
Speaker 3: the way to two and a half plus two and

332
00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,640
Speaker 3: a half for Baltimore. So and obviously going through zero.

333
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:25,360
Speaker 3: It's not that big of a deal to cross through

334
00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,680
Speaker 3: zero if you don't get to the key number three.

335
00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:31,920
Speaker 3: But you know, that's that's significant movement there. Yeah, Okay,

336
00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:34,320
Speaker 3: any other teams that kind of caught your eye in

337
00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:38,880
Speaker 3: terms of like downward perception changes from last week to

338
00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:39,320
Speaker 3: this week.

339
00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:42,800
Speaker 4: I mean one that I flagged here, but we kind

340
00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,360
Speaker 4: of talked about the Lions a little bit already, and

341
00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:48,120
Speaker 4: it's not again it's it's not like it's not important

342
00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,560
Speaker 4: because it's through the zero. But it's just funny to

343
00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:53,400
Speaker 4: me that the Lions, at least the one I checked

344
00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:55,040
Speaker 4: last night, were favored.

345
00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:56,840
Speaker 2: Against against the Minnesota Vikings.

346
00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:58,840
Speaker 4: I mean it went from to you know, at least

347
00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:00,360
Speaker 4: in my numbers that I was looking at opening at

348
00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,000
Speaker 4: two and a half towards the Vikings to one and

349
00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,360
Speaker 4: a half in Detroit, and again, like that doesn't really matter,

350
00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:07,320
Speaker 4: but I just I just think it's fun to troll

351
00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 4: Vikings fans with basically, yeah, I.

352
00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:12,320
Speaker 3: Mean, let's okay, so let's talk about uh kind of

353
00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:14,280
Speaker 3: getting into the market movement part of the show.

354
00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:16,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's start with that game.

355
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,880
Speaker 3: That is it's really interesting in that, you know, Minnesota,

356
00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:23,120
Speaker 3: the people who were into Minnesota, I as we'll call

357
00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:26,120
Speaker 3: them Vikings fans, but Vikings fans they're you know, it's

358
00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:29,080
Speaker 3: like their team. I think they know that their.

359
00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:31,560
Speaker 1: Team is I don't want to say it's it's bad,

360
00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:34,200
Speaker 1: it's it's not. It's like it's above average.

361
00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,880
Speaker 3: But they know their team is not elite, but they

362
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:38,920
Speaker 3: feel like they need to pretend that.

363
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,360
Speaker 4: I think they're pretty close to average. Quite I think

364
00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:44,280
Speaker 4: that's one of the that's what. So here's here's Vikings fans,

365
00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,400
Speaker 4: well not Vikings fans, but here's judging by comments on

366
00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:51,000
Speaker 4: YouTube slash Twitter, which of course are the you know,

367
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,760
Speaker 4: the elite of the elite of thought leaders. Talking about

368
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,760
Speaker 4: thought leaders in the platform, vikings fans they were doing

369
00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:00,480
Speaker 4: really well. I was saying they weren't that good. They

370
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:02,440
Speaker 4: were like, yeah, you're right, we're not that good. Then

371
00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,320
Speaker 4: they beat the Bills, and then when that happened, it

372
00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:07,560
Speaker 4: was like you got to respect us sort of thing,

373
00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:09,720
Speaker 4: Like those people came out and then you know, they

374
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:12,400
Speaker 4: you know, it didn't go so hot. The next week

375
00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,879
Speaker 4: it's it's against Dallas. So I don't know where they

376
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,080
Speaker 4: stand right now. I still think they probably want their respect,

377
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:17,800
Speaker 4: but I'm not sure.

378
00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I gotta say I I'm capitulating a

379
00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 3: little bit on this and that on the look ahead line.

380
00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:24,400
Speaker 1: I did bet.

381
00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,560
Speaker 3: Detroit at plus three because you know, there there was

382
00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 3: a rogue book out there that hung a plus three

383
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:31,840
Speaker 3: and it was like, Okay, I gotta take this. But

384
00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,440
Speaker 3: you know, I'm looking at this now, looking at the projection,

385
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,720
Speaker 3: and I think it's gone too far, Like Minnesota plus

386
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,000
Speaker 3: two and a half, that is too far. I have

387
00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 3: to say, like I have I have this projected as

388
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,879
Speaker 3: Minnesota close to a pick them, like Minnesota favored by

389
00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,199
Speaker 3: zero point twenty five points. I don't know if you

390
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,919
Speaker 3: have an opinion on this in terms of where this

391
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,920
Speaker 3: line should be, but two and a half Minnesota as

392
00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:55,880
Speaker 3: an underdog that is too far.

393
00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:58,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I have it basically as a pick.

394
00:17:58,480 --> 00:17:59,879
Speaker 2: I mean, maybe you could lean a little bit to

395
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:00,760
Speaker 2: it's Detroit.

396
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:03,560
Speaker 4: It depends, like I'm I'm I've been messing with like

397
00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:06,000
Speaker 4: how much I'm decaying some of the older games as

398
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:06,479
Speaker 4: part of this.

399
00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:08,919
Speaker 2: So that's really the knob, right.

400
00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,879
Speaker 4: If i'm if I'm if I'm decaying like the past

401
00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,280
Speaker 4: results earlier in the season a little bit more so

402
00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,840
Speaker 4: than it will give me Detroit by maybe half a

403
00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,000
Speaker 4: point or a point, But it doesn't even really matter

404
00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 4: around there, right, and then if not, then it's more

405
00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:22,760
Speaker 4: like a pick.

406
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:24,000
Speaker 2: So it's pretty close though.

407
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 4: To being a pick, assuming you give something for home

408
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 4: field advantage in Detroit.

409
00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:30,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think it should be close to

410
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,359
Speaker 3: a pick. But you know, if I think it's close

411
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:34,400
Speaker 3: to a pick in the team that has I don't

412
00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 3: want to say like the better record, but like the

413
00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,240
Speaker 3: team that has the better quarterback to.

414
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:39,840
Speaker 2: Win at the end, they know how to win.

415
00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:41,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, we'll give them the know how to win.

416
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 3: But the team that has the better quarterback with probably

417
00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,879
Speaker 3: maybe the better head coach. I mean, you know, I

418
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,640
Speaker 3: I think just in terms of maybe not in game

419
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:55,200
Speaker 3: decision making, but in terms of pregame planning, I would

420
00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,400
Speaker 3: say they have the better head coach, and I can

421
00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:59,159
Speaker 3: get that team as an underdog.

422
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,720
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna do it anyway. So yeah, there you go.

423
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:05,760
Speaker 2: Just just get it on both sides there.

424
00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I would not be against that at all.

425
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:09,720
Speaker 4: I don't know what to make of the vikings because

426
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 4: I actually have them. Like I said, I have them

427
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,800
Speaker 4: right around average, so I'm probably a little bit lower

428
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,600
Speaker 4: than some others. Let me look to see what the

429
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:22,199
Speaker 4: kind of a market based rating would be on this.

430
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 3: As one point two five points better than an average

431
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:30,000
Speaker 3: team on a neutral field, and I have them at

432
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 3: number eleven.

433
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:35,200
Speaker 4: Okay, according to in Impredictable, if anyone has looked there

434
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:37,199
Speaker 4: where they look at this line and then the look

435
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:40,360
Speaker 4: ahead line for the next week, and they figure out

436
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:46,200
Speaker 4: the relative strengths based upon that they have Minnesota as

437
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,240
Speaker 4: Let me look here, Sorry, this is not great podcasting.

438
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 4: Here half a point better than an average team on

439
00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:56,159
Speaker 4: a neutral field.

440
00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I still gets them all the way up to.

441
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,720
Speaker 4: Eleventh in the rankings because there's not a lot of separation,

442
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:07,160
Speaker 4: you know, between eleven and fifteen.

443
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:09,560
Speaker 3: Yeah on Yeah, so I'm a little bit higher in

444
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,119
Speaker 3: terms of the actual number attributed to it, but you

445
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 3: know I have them at number eleven. Okay, one game

446
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:21,399
Speaker 3: we have to talk about Cincinnati hosting the Browns, and

447
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 3: so if you look at the preseason numbers and great,

448
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 3: I'll say, like, you know, there was a lot of

449
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,480
Speaker 3: uncertainty in the in the off season about you know,

450
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 3: the Shaun Watson availability and so that would factor into

451
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 3: the line here. But in the look ahead off season line,

452
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 3: this was Bengals favored by one and a half on

453
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 3: the Thursday look ahead, so not even a week ago,

454
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,160
Speaker 3: this number was three and a half. The early line

455
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 3: opened Sunday night at four and a half and it

456
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 3: is now six. And by the way, I bet this

457
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,439
Speaker 3: on Monday at four and a half and I logged it.

458
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 1: Here comes the plug.

459
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 3: I logged it in the Betting pros app where you

460
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 3: can sync up with sportsbooks, get free betting advice and picks,

461
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 3: and tracked dif for experts in your own bets, and

462
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 3: you can set alerts. We monitor all the major sports books,

463
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:05,680
Speaker 3: so when one of them has a line move that

464
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 3: hits a threshold you set, you get an alert that

465
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 3: tells you where to make a bet at the book

466
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,879
Speaker 3: that provides the most value. So download the app today

467
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 3: in the Apple or Google Play store. Okay, so this

468
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 3: number has moved from three and a half just a

469
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 3: week ago to six. Here, Kevin, what are your thoughts

470
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 3: on this line move? And and kind of we talked

471
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 3: about the Bengals earlier. Uh, but you know, the Browns

472
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 3: also played their first game with Shaun Watson. Any thoughts

473
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 3: on the Browns here?

474
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:36,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Browns were another team that my numbers liked

475
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 4: for most of the season, meaning if you were gonna,

476
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 4: you know, calculate what their point differential would have been

477
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 4: or what their you know, record would have been based

478
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,399
Speaker 4: upon how I looked at the underlying strength of how

479
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 4: they played in some of these games, like the Jets

480
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 4: game just being an absolutely absurd like point zero.

481
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 5: A lot of adjusted wins for exactly they had a

482
00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,480
Speaker 5: lot of adjusted wins similar to the Bengals and that

483
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 5: sort of man, but it hasn't been as hot recently

484
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,439
Speaker 5: and the defense is just I don't know.

485
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 4: It's weird because they had like a great game against

486
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,440
Speaker 4: the Bengals. I was being in one team when everyone

487
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:14,119
Speaker 4: was like really in jumping off of liking Joe Burrow

488
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:15,680
Speaker 4: and everyone else there, and they couldn't do anything with

489
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:17,239
Speaker 4: Jamar Chase. But then they have other times where they

490
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 4: look like they just cannot stop anybody. I'm rambling a

491
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:24,440
Speaker 4: bit here, but just Deshaun Watson was really bad last week.

492
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 2: He was bottom five. Somehow they put up whatever it was.

493
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 4: Twenty something pointed out scoring an offensive touchdown, which is impressive.

494
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 4: Had tip to the Texans on that one.

495
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:36,119
Speaker 2: But I don't know.

496
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 4: I mean, I tend I don't know if it's like

497
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 4: riding a bike when they talk about playing quarterback if

498
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 4: you haven't.

499
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 2: Played for two years.

500
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 4: But I tend to think that it's not something you

501
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 4: need a lot of lead time going forward on.

502
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 2: So I don't know.

503
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 4: At six points, I would probably lean towards that being

504
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 4: a little bit too big of a margin for this

505
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 4: type of game, with the Deshaun Watson factor factored in

506
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 4: as giving.

507
00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 2: Them a boost. But it's close.

508
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 4: Actually, I think I'm according to my numbers, I'd lean

509
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,679
Speaker 4: pretty heavily in that direction, but I guess maybe my

510
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 4: intellectually I'm hedging that a bit.

511
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I bet the four and a half minus

512
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 3: four and a half on Monday. Mainly is a market move,

513
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,360
Speaker 3: Like I just anticipated that this number was going.

514
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 1: That sounds sick, and.

515
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 2: I let my numbers say four and a half sounds

516
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 2: sounds pretty close. Four four and a half.

517
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, I haven't projected at five. So like now with

518
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 3: this number at six, I'm seeing value on Cleveland. I

519
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 3: don't think I would bet it though.

520
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:30,160
Speaker 2: But this is a tough one too.

521
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 4: It's like such a you don't even have you have

522
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 4: no frame of reference, right, no real to go off

523
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 4: of on on what to what to do in these

524
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 4: types of situations.

525
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, so mentioned the Browns there.

526
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,440
Speaker 3: Of course, in week thirteen they played the Texans, who

527
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 3: just were absolutely terrible. Kyle Allen just gifteen touchdowns to

528
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:48,159
Speaker 3: the defense.

529
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 2: This is a tank job. What's up with is Kyle Allens?

530
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 4: Because I mean, obviously it wasn't like Davis Mills was,

531
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 4: you know, covering himself in glory or anything.

532
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 2: But it's it's so bad, it's it's so bad.

533
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 3: I don't know I mean, well, then you're getting to

534
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 3: the larger question. Was hiring Lovey Smith part of the tank?

535
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 3: Was it a secret tank? But yeah, I mean, so

536
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,679
Speaker 3: you've got this game, Houston going on the road playing

537
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 3: the Cowboys, and the off season.

538
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 1: This number was eight Cowboys favored by eight.

539
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 3: So the market already knew, you know, months in advance,

540
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 3: that the Texans were likely to be heavy underdogs in

541
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 3: the spot as a really bad team.

542
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 1: Of course, the market.

543
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 3: Did not anticipate just how bad the Texans would be

544
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 3: and maybe how good the Cowboys would be. A week

545
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 3: ago in the look ahead market, this was fourteen and

546
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 3: a half. It opened sixteen and a half on Sunday,

547
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 3: And now as we're recording this, it is, you know,

548
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 3: straight on seventeen.

549
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 1: And you know, the real question does this number get higher?

550
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 3: Like how how high does this number have to get

551
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 3: before reasonable people in the market think, Okay, this is

552
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 3: just too much I have to bet on the Houston Texans.

553
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 3: As a matter of principle, I think that number would

554
00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,040
Speaker 3: have to be like in the twenties before people, I

555
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 3: would really like, before serious betters would be like, Okay,

556
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,679
Speaker 3: this numbers too far. As a matter of principle, I

557
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 3: must bet on the road dog in this spot. Kevin,

558
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 3: what are your thoughts here?

559
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 4: Well, you should have booked a serious better on the

560
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 4: podcast if you wanted to have that, because I'll tell you.

561
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 2: Seventeen is looking pretty good to me right now, honestly,

562
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 2: you know.

563
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 4: But I have gone down in flames on these types

564
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 4: of bets many and many a time, and I seem

565
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,119
Speaker 4: to you know, I don't know if it's one of

566
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 4: those things where like you have a bias towards you know,

567
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 4: the loss.

568
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 2: Is hurting more or not.

569
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 4: But I seem to think like these don't go well,

570
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 4: but I always do it for some for some reason

571
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 4: when it comes in because my number will come in.

572
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 4: I don't know what is it at here. It's at

573
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 4: like thirteen and a half or something like that. Now,

574
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 4: what's the Kyle Allen factor. I don't know, thirteen thirteen

575
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:53,399
Speaker 4: and a half. Like Dak Prescott, I feel like the

576
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 4: Cowboys are a little bit over hyped right now.

577
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 2: I mean whatever. It's hard to say.

578
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 4: Overhyped because they're playing well, but you know their offense again,

579
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 4: people are like everything's clicking with Dak.

580
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going, Okay, it's going well, you know, I

581
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 2: don't know if it's right there.

582
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 4: Texas defense is not super horrible. I mean it's pretty bad, but.

583
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 2: It's it's really the offense that's that's that bad. I

584
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 2: don't know.

585
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 4: I guess I would probably at seventeen. It's pretty tough

586
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 4: for me to pass up. But again, it's just you're

587
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 4: gonna feel like an idiot when it doesn't hit, which

588
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 4: is gonna happen, you know, half the time, probably a

589
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 4: little bit, a little bit less than half the time

590
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 4: is all I'm hoping for.

591
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have this at sixteen and a half.

592
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 3: I gotta say, if you were in your next job,

593
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 3: if you were hired as a trader an odds maker

594
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 3: for betmgym. By the way, of course, use a highly

595
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 3: original promo code betty pros with you know, your first

596
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:44,959
Speaker 3: deposit for the rich free bet of up to two

597
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 3: thousand dollars. If you were at bet Mgym and you

598
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 3: posted a line of thirteen and a half, you would

599
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:55,919
Speaker 3: take so much cowboys money, Like within a matter of

600
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,360
Speaker 3: seconds of posting that line.

601
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I mean that's probably wrong too, Don't get me.

602
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 4: I think that's probably wrong. Like I'd have to go

603
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 4: in there and adjust it. But I don't know if

604
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,360
Speaker 4: I could get that much higher than maybe fifteen on here.

605
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,159
Speaker 2: But I mean this is yeah, I don't know. I

606
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 2: don't know. It's it's really these I have trouble.

607
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 4: I don't know if you do, but I have trouble

608
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 4: when we start to get out to these extremes because

609
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 4: you can't really capture because it's like the tails, right

610
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 4: every talking about the distribution, the tails can get so

611
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:29,199
Speaker 4: long in certain circumstances. People don't necessarily they maybe they

612
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 4: realize that on the top end, that like the Bills

613
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 4: and the Chiefs or whoever, can be so much.

614
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 2: Better than everyone else.

615
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 4: But there can also be teams at the bottom they're

616
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 4: just so much worse than everyone else. And there's also

617
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,399
Speaker 4: something which I have not brought into play so far

618
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 4: the season, which maybe I should have, was like a

619
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 4: tanking variable which I normally only try to allocate for

620
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 4: the last few weeks of the season. But the Texans

621
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 4: may have kicked it into full tank in you know,

622
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 4: we week eleven or something like that would alan come

623
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 4: in week twelve. Week twelve might have been the full tank.

624
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 4: Maybe I should be putting that variable on which will

625
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:02,199
Speaker 4: add a few points.

626
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that would be I mean, if you

627
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 3: had a few points to your thirteen and a half,

628
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 3: like that gets you there, that gets you right around

629
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,199
Speaker 3: the market, so that it might be worth doing. All right,

630
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 3: another game here, the game that has been flexed into

631
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 3: the Sunday night football spot. You have Miami on the

632
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 3: road against the Chargers. This number in the preseason or

633
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:28,679
Speaker 3: in the offseason rather was Miami as a five and

634
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 3: a half point underdog. And then now, of course we've

635
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,640
Speaker 3: had the full flip and the look ahead market. On Thursday,

636
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 3: this was one and a half. The early line was

637
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 3: two and a half on Sunday, and now as we're recording,

638
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 3: we are seeing threes across the market, Miami favored by three. Kevin,

639
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 3: is this too far?

640
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 2: It's close? It's close. I mean, I.

641
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 4: Still not too far for me, but my numbers are

642
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 4: pretty low on the Chargers so far.

643
00:28:58,440 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 2: And I think for Miami.

644
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 4: Even even when they got beat down by the forty

645
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 4: nine ers. And this is something where I got some

646
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 4: dunking quote tweets on Twitter about the fact that I

647
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 4: was trying to point out and of course, like even

648
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 4: if you put explicitly in your right up. You're like,

649
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 4: I know, you can't just exclude the bad plays, but

650
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 4: it's an interesting thought exercise.

651
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 2: Then everyone gets back to you and they're like, oh,

652
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 2: if you exclude two his bad plays, then he was

653
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 2: actually good.

654
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 4: But my larger point was, I know it was based

655
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 4: on a couple of long touchdowns that he had, but

656
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 4: they kind of do that on a regular basis though

657
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 4: for that team, So I give him a little bit

658
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 4: more credit than I would your normal team that does that.

659
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 2: But my larger point was that, like, if you say, fumble.

660
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 4: Six is like incredibly negative and fairly random, Like I

661
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 4: don't care how good your defensive rushes, You're like, you're

662
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 4: not going to necessarily scoop and score on something like that.

663
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 2: And he had some kind of backbreaking interceptions.

664
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 4: And then also looking at some accuracy numbers, he was

665
00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 4: a little bit inaccurate. Maybe he was rattling the pocket.

666
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 4: I don't know was going on there, but I thought like, internally,

667
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 4: he actually wasn't that bad. It was more like a

668
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 4: seventy fifth percentile type of outcome. If you if you

669
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 4: strip out some of those negatives. Again, like you can't

670
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 4: just strip out the negatives, But for me, it would

671
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 4: be more concerning if the offense was completely stagnant with

672
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 4: no mistakes.

673
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 2: That would be something that would So I don't know.

674
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 4: I have faith in this offense for still being able

675
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 4: to put up some big plays, and I don't know

676
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 4: what's going on with Herbert honestly, Like I was.

677
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 2: A huge fan of his in the off season.

678
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 4: I thought that maybe he could rise to be right

679
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,719
Speaker 4: there with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in the end

680
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 4: of season conversation as being that guy, and we just

681
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 4: have not.

682
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 2: We just have not seen it.

683
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 4: They did not even have a very good success rate

684
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 4: last week against a Raiders defense which has been pretty

685
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 4: easy to score again. So long story short, I'm pretty

686
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:48,479
Speaker 4: down on the Chargers, though probably more down than than

687
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 4: most people are.

688
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 2: Was who still have hope.

689
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have this projected at one point two five

690
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 3: and if it's you know, sitting on the key number

691
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 3: of three, there's some actual value there based on my numbers.

692
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 3: But I haven't bet it yet because I do have

693
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 3: that trepidation with the Chargers, and we did see the Dolphins.

694
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 3: You know, I think Mike McDaniel kind of you know,

695
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 3: taking a trick from his former boss Kyle Shanahan staying

696
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 3: on the West coast in between road games, and so

697
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 3: the normal travel disadvantage that you might see attached to

698
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 3: the Dolphins, I don't think they have, like they don't

699
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 3: have it in full abundance.

700
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: Right, and the crowd advantage will be like nil.

701
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, exactly, So, I you know, I'm I'm showing

702
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 3: some value on the Chargers with how much this line

703
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 3: has moved, but I haven't. I haven't bet it yet.

704
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 3: I'm just a little a little trepidacious. One one game

705
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 3: that I didn't put in the outline that I want

706
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 3: to talk about because you mentioned, first of all, I

707
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 3: think the Jets are an interesting team, you know, great defense,

708
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 3: potentially improving offense with the I won't want to say emergence,

709
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 3: but the insertion of Zach Wah into that offense. And

710
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 3: then you mentioned it's the teams on the tails where

711
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 3: it's a little bit harder, I think to set a

712
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 3: line and to evaluate, not like so much to evaluate

713
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 3: what their actual potential is, but to evaluate how that

714
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 3: translates into points scored within a game. Because there are

715
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 3: some teams that have the potential to score a lot

716
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 3: of points, but maybe they don't do it because they

717
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 3: aren't put in the game state where they need to

718
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 3: do it. And I think the Bills are you know,

719
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 3: you have them power rated number one. I have them

720
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 3: power rated number two. They are a team on.

721
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 1: That cusp on the tails.

722
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 3: And so looking at this game in the offseason, it

723
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 3: was minus ten and the look ahead it was minus

724
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 3: nine and a half. And even now it's minus.

725
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 1: Nine and a half. And I say that nine and

726
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 1: a half.

727
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:52,959
Speaker 3: Obviously the Bill is favored, but I say that, and

728
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 3: actually this number is moving down. It is moving towards

729
00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 3: the Jets. It is nine at some books, still nine

730
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 3: and a half a fan duel, but nine if bet

731
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 3: MGM and DraftKings actually eight and a half at points Bet,

732
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 3: it would not surprise me if this number moves even

733
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 3: more towards the Jets. And and we saw similar movement

734
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 3: last week with the UH with the Patriots, with the

735
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 3: Patriots hosting the Bills, and the number continued to move

736
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 3: towards them.

737
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: To kick off, we could see this number.

738
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 3: Continue to move and like, I think it's wrong, Like

739
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 3: I've got this like projected above ten.

740
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 1: But do you have any thoughts on this game?

741
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: I think I have the Jets a lot higher than

742
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 2: you do.

743
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 4: If that's the case, because my number is more on

744
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 4: a neutral field, it'll be more around six and a

745
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 4: half seven. So then you add in whatever. I guess

746
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 4: the Bills probably get a little bit of extra something.

747
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 4: I haven't checked the weather conditions on this one here,

748
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 4: but so it is. If it's down to nine now,

749
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 4: because I'm seeing some nine and a half's, I guess

750
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 4: there is nine, maybe it's gonna go down to eight

751
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 4: and a half. That seems more fair to me. I

752
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 4: guess I just I'm a little bit higher on the

753
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 4: Jets than you are.

754
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 2: It seems.

755
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a chance that I'm not giving them the

756
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 3: boost that they deserve on offense from Mike White, like,

757
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 3: there's a decent chance of that. By the way, you

758
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 3: gotta do another plug here mentioned the Bills. We are

759
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,919
Speaker 3: giving away a free signed Isaiah McKenzie Buffalo Bills mini

760
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 3: helmets from Pristine Auction. If you want a chance to

761
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 3: win it, subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right

762
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 3: now and comment below on the video. We will announce

763
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 3: a winner on the channel in a future episode. So

764
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:29,879
Speaker 3: turn on those notifications.

765
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 2: What about a big hat? Can you give them those

766
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 2: big Brian Robinson hats.

767
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 3: The question the mini helmet, is it an actual mini

768
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 3: helmet or is it a real helmet? But it's just

769
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 3: size to Isaiah McKenzie's head because.

770
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 4: He's, you know, for little man shaming there. I thought're

771
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 4: gonna say, can you can you eat ice cream out

772
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 4: of it? You know we used to get like the

773
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 4: little batting helmets that.

774
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 2: Was so money. Okay, go ahead.

775
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think my mom has probably still saved those

776
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 3: that I used to have and like put them somewhere

777
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 3: in my room. Yea, all right, Thursday Night Football. Let's

778
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 3: let's close it out with a discussion here at Thursday

779
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 3: Night Football.

780
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 1: Raiders.

781
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 3: Uh the numbers moved to six Raiders minus six at

782
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 3: the Rams and uh the spread here, yeah minus six,

783
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 3: the total is still forty four and a half. I mean, honestly,

784
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 3: I don't know if I have all that much to

785
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:22,720
Speaker 3: say about this game.

786
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 1: I have it lined exactly at six the total.

787
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 3: It's hard to know what to do, uh with this

788
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 3: this Rams offense now that Matthew Staffords is not there.

789
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,279
Speaker 3: But I mean they weren't scoring that many points to

790
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 3: begin with. How are you looking at this game? Yeah?

791
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 4: This is really, I mean, another one of those tough

792
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 4: ones because there's maybe there's not there's no reason to

793
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:51,840
Speaker 4: tank for if you're the Rams, because props to the

794
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:52,720
Speaker 4: Detroit Lions.

795
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 2: You have the Rams pick. I believe it's currently sitting.

796
00:35:55,400 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 4: At number three or number three, number three, so the Lions. Again,

797
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 4: props to the Lions for having that there, so there's

798
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:04,839
Speaker 4: no reason for them to tank other than this could

799
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:06,319
Speaker 4: just be like you know in the NBA where they

800
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 4: have one, two, three can coon. It could be one

801
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 4: of those situations where they're just like, I just want

802
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:11,879
Speaker 4: to get you know, get the hell out of here

803
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 4: and not have to worry about any of this stuff

804
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 4: for the rest of the season, so and just just

805
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 4: just kind of go through the motions the rest of

806
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 4: the time here. So my number is a little bit

807
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 4: thinner than that. It's more like four and a half.

808
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 4: But because of that variable than I did that that

809
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 4: we're talking about here, that I don't really know what's

810
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 4: going to be going on with the Rams there.

811
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:37,799
Speaker 2: It's not enough of a spread for me to think

812
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 2: it's actionable.

813
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the the real losers are the people

814
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 3: who are going to watch uh in Island games.

815
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 1: The Rams for the next four weeks, like they they

816
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:50,280
Speaker 1: are in.

817
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 2: Like flexible or not. Those are not flexible.

818
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 1: I don't think so.

819
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,800
Speaker 3: I think so we've got Thursday night football. I believe

820
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 3: we have a Monday night football in there. There's one

821
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 3: of these is the Christmas game. Uh and uh, and

822
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 3: then I think there's one more in there that is

823
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 3: not flexible.

824
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 1: Maybe it's flexible, but.

825
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 2: We're going to like Amazon is regretting its investment. And

826
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 2: now there's there's.

827
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 4: Day that football because obviously we had Chargers Chiefs to

828
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 4: start the season.

829
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 2: Uh, you know Steelers Browns with Uh, it.

830
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 4: Was that was a that was actually what's his name?

831
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 4: Actually wasn't that that bad? Necessarily? Who else do we

832
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 4: have here? Begals, Dolphins, whin Tua, you know, basically died

833
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 4: on the field, Broncos Colts. That was so bad it

834
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 4: was almost good.

835
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 2: Like it was so bad.

836
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:42,480
Speaker 1: I mean I don't think you know, yeah, I guess.

837
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 4: They're getting a foothold here, like it doesn't really matter

838
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:47,799
Speaker 4: when you have more more money than God. But it's

839
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 4: been pretty ugly, Like it's been pretty bad as far

840
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 4: as the schedule is concerned here, Like they do have

841
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 4: Niners Hawks, Seahawks next week, Jaguars, Jets.

842
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 2: That'll be all right, Cowboys, Titans. Okay, so they got.

843
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 4: Some okay ones coming, but it has been pretty al

844
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 4: Michaels is like past the point of pretending that he

845
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 4: cares though for some of these games.

846
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 2: So that's the thing that comes through for sure.

847
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, that helps save it, all right. Kevin, thanks for

848
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 1: joining us.

849
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 3: For the people who don't know where to follow you,

850
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 3: where should they find your work?

851
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 2: Yeah?

852
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, First of all, people get with it if you

853
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,760
Speaker 4: don't know where to where to find me at Kevin

854
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 4: Cole still PFF. As I mentioned before at Kevin Cole

855
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 4: PFF on Twitter, Unexpected Points dot substack dot com is

856
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:33,879
Speaker 4: my newsletter so far one hundred percent published rate, daily

857
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 4: published rate two days so far is going further. And

858
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 4: the Unexpected Points podcast, which as of now I may

859
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 4: move it over to substack also but as of now

860
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 4: is being hosted at Anchor and I'm gonna probably have

861
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 4: an episode later this week and then next week starting

862
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:50,839
Speaker 4: with some interviews. It's a little bit on their nerdy side.

863
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 4: I'm gonna interview Chase Stewart. You know, Chase Stewart is corrotective.

864
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah.

865
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:58,959
Speaker 4: So he's like, he's like an OG in football analytics,

866
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 4: meaning he was doing posts ten years ago, which basically

867
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 4: makes you makes you an OG. So I'm gonna try

868
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 4: not the fanboy out a little bit too much there

869
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,439
Speaker 4: because I just think he's like a super smart guy

870
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:11,880
Speaker 4: and not like a not a highly technical you know,

871
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 4: CS stats major or.

872
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 2: Anything like that. And he's a lawyer.

873
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 1: He's a lawyer.

874
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 4: He's been playing around with with that sort of stuff

875
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:19,839
Speaker 4: for a while and it's just amazing, like how much

876
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,839
Speaker 4: insight and influence and how you can explore these different

877
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,440
Speaker 4: topics where you don't have to have uh, you know,

878
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 4: super modeling and x G boost and all this sort

879
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:30,320
Speaker 4: of stuff that you can really just put together some

880
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 4: numbers and get some good perspective and everything. And he

881
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,359
Speaker 4: was posting daily for years and years and years and years.

882
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:36,800
Speaker 4: It was amazing, absolutely amazing.

883
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 3: Being a lawyer, I was gonna say, you're you're like

884
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:41,399
Speaker 3: my hit rate of two days in a row.

885
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:42,920
Speaker 1: I was thinking, like, got some real.

886
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 2: And he's cal Ripken or something. You know.

887
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 4: That's I'm like, I'll get there eventually someday. Yeah, So

888
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:50,480
Speaker 4: so it's gonna be fun.

889
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I remember he was, yeah, posting every day and uh,

890
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 3: you know Fantasy Douche aka Frank DuPont from Rodoves back

891
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 3: in the day. You know he would talk about you know,

892
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 3: oh did you read you know what Chase Stewart wrote.

893
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,839
Speaker 3: So yeah, been looking at his stuff for a long time.

894
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 3: All right, Kevin, thanks for being on the show. He's

895
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 3: Kevin Cole. I'm Matthew Friedman Matt at the Oracle. Check

896
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,439
Speaker 3: out Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros for all my work

897
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 3: best bets, player props, Fantasy favorites, player projections.

898
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 1: And rankings and more.

899
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 3: That is going to do it for this week fourteen

900
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:21,879
Speaker 3: Market Movement Empower Ratings edition of the Betting Pros Pod.

901
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:23,799
Speaker 3: If you'd like to show, rate, and review on your

902
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 3: favorite podcast app. Thanks for tuning in, good luck, and

903
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 3: see you next episode.