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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Here is an underappreciated world historical fact. In the

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Speaker 1: past twenty years, the price of solar panels has fallen

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Speaker 1: not by twenty percent, not by half, but by more

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Speaker 1: than ninety seven percent, and as a result, solar power

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Speaker 1: has gone bananas. The amount of solar power that was

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Speaker 1: installed in the world over the past two days, just

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Speaker 1: today and yesterday, is greater than the total amount of

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Speaker 1: solar power that existed in the whole world in two

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Speaker 1: thousand and four, and the rate of new installations is

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Speaker 1: still growing. This is very good news for the world.

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Speaker 1: Wildly cheap and abundant solar power won't solve all of

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Speaker 1: our climate problems, but it will solve a lot of them.

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Speaker 1: Solar combined with batteries, will provide a huge chunk of

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Speaker 1: the world's electricity in the decades to come. On top

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Speaker 1: of that, the spread of solar means that within a

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Speaker 1: few years energy may be free, free energy in the

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Speaker 1: middle of the day in many parts of the world,

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Speaker 1: and that free energy will create new opportunities, new ways

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Speaker 1: to generate and store fuel and heat, new ways to

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Speaker 1: fight climate change. I'm Jacob Goldstein, and this is what's

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Speaker 1: your problem. Starting today and continuing over the next few weeks,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be talking to people who are in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the solar power revolution, people who can

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Speaker 1: tell us how this extraordinary thing happened, this ninety seven

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Speaker 1: percent fall in the price of solar panels, and what

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Speaker 1: it means for the world. My guest today is Jenny Chase.

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Speaker 1: She's one of the world's top solar analysts. She's been

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Speaker 1: covering the industry for something like twenty years. She's a

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Speaker 1: writer at Bloomberg ne Ef and she's also the author

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Speaker 1: of the book Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon. I

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Speaker 1: talked with Jenny about how solar power got so cheap

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Speaker 1: and what it means for us now. So okay, So,

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Speaker 1: so it's the turn of the century. Solar power is

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Speaker 1: very expensive. It's four dollars per wattch just for the

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Speaker 1: solar panels. When does that start to change? What sort

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Speaker 1: of the first key moment in this story of solar

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Speaker 1: power getting cheaper?

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Speaker 2: So the first the first moment was probably solar power

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Speaker 2: getting like slightly more expensive. Because the Germans brought in

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Speaker 2: an expanded version of a previous program called a Freedom

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Speaker 2: tariff in two thousand and four. This was the by

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Speaker 2: far the biggest incentive driving the most solar build that

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Speaker 2: the world had ever known. And there was a kind

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Speaker 2: of sucking noise as all the world's solar module stuff

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Speaker 2: going to Germany.

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Speaker 1: Okay, and so it's great I think for world historical

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Speaker 1: reasons that Germany did this. I wish they called it

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Speaker 1: something other than a feed in tariff. Does it make

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Speaker 1: more sense in German? I hate this phrase feed in tariff?

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Speaker 1: Is it sensible in German? And it's just a bad translation?

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Speaker 2: No, not really, It's an unspizer for gutungen in German.

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Speaker 2: And does it mean feed in tariff?

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Speaker 1: Okay? So what is a feed in tariff?

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Speaker 2: So it means that you get paid a fixed price

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Speaker 2: for the electricity that you feed in to the grid.

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Speaker 2: I see.

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Speaker 1: So it's basically the German government saying we promise to

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Speaker 1: pay anybody who puts up solar panels a certain amount

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Speaker 1: for the energy those panels produce.

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Speaker 2: For twenty years. I think it's almost twenty five years.

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Speaker 2: It's twenty years now.

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Speaker 1: Okay, And so tell me more about this unfortunately named

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Speaker 1: policy that helped kick off the solar power revolution.

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Speaker 2: Well, basically, for the first time, it was actually profitable

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Speaker 2: to put solar power plants on fields. I mean historically,

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Speaker 2: nearly all solo models have been as stall and rooftops

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Speaker 2: because you just didn't buy the huge numbers of solar modules.

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Speaker 2: You bought small numbers of solar models because they were expensive.

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Speaker 2: And so for the first time there were actually specialized

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Speaker 2: development companies who were rolling solar panels out on fields

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Speaker 2: and they were raising money from investors. And for the

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Speaker 2: first because the feed in tariff is paid for the

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Speaker 2: lifetime of the system more or less almost then you

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Speaker 2: can do things like get bank debt for it. So

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Speaker 2: banks and Germany also had a support for bank debt

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Speaker 2: for projects. But for the first time, European banks in

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Speaker 2: particular could get really comfortable with the fact that the

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Speaker 2: cash flows from these solar projects were extremely reliable, and

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Speaker 2: so you could lend money to these projects at quite

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Speaker 2: a low rate of interest.

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Speaker 1: Germany creates the feed in tariff. It means it's easier

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Speaker 1: to get loans because now the government is promising to

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Speaker 1: give you a stream of income for twenty five years,

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Speaker 1: which is a lender's dream come true. It's a sovereign

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Speaker 1: bond like investment. You start getting commercial development of solar

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Speaker 1: power for the first time in the history of the world.

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Speaker 2: What happens next and you get manufacturers ramping up, So

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Speaker 2: you get US sunhower and evergreen solar, Chinese Suntech, German

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Speaker 2: Q cells coming in, and they went onto the public

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Speaker 2: stock markets and raised money to expand their factories and

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Speaker 2: also to secure supplies of their raw material, polysilicon.

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Speaker 1: Huh.

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Speaker 2: Now, until the Germans started this, this crazy solar expansion,

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Speaker 2: the solar industry had got along just fine using offcuts

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Speaker 2: from the semiconduct to industry huhs for their silicon.

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Speaker 1: The offcuts meaning just scraps from chip factories. Yeah, okay,

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Speaker 1: So what does it mean for just this raw material,

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Speaker 1: the silicon, once the industry becomes industrialized and starts ramping

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Speaker 1: up after this German policy change.

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Speaker 2: Well, first of all, polysilicon factories are quite really expensive

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Speaker 2: and they require a lot of technological expertise to do.

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Speaker 2: There's nasty chemicals, there's a point in your where you

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Speaker 2: have to be simultaneously heating and cooling different parts of

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Speaker 2: a reactor. There's all kinds of gases that you're trying

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Speaker 2: to purify. There's a huge amount of incredibly technical expertise there,

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Speaker 2: and at the time there were only really five companies

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Speaker 2: that are worldwide that could do it, which was fine

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Speaker 2: because they were only supplying the semiconductor industry, right, the

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Speaker 2: demand was not that great, but solar panels use a

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Speaker 2: lot of silicon compared with semiconductors, and so demand just

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Speaker 2: went up.

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Speaker 1: So before the Germans, before two thousand and four, you

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Speaker 1: could get silicon for about twenty five dollars a kilogram.

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Speaker 1: What's the price go up to after when everybody's trying

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Speaker 1: to get into the solar panel So.

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Speaker 2: The spot price went up to over four hundred kilogram.

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Speaker 1: Oh wow, So it went up by like, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: almost twenty x exactly. So there is this thing people

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Speaker 1: love to say about commodities, right, which is the cure

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Speaker 1: for high prices is high prices, which basically means if

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Speaker 1: there is a high price on some commodity thing, more

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Speaker 1: people will will make it, we'll pull it out of

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Speaker 1: the ground, whatever, and that increased supply will drive down

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Speaker 1: the price. And that happens here, right, More polysilicon factories

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Speaker 1: come online, so the price of the raw material falls,

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Speaker 1: and then demand for solar panels grows, but not as

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Speaker 1: much as people expected. So there is this collapse in

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Speaker 1: the price, right, this first big decline where between two

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Speaker 1: thousand and eight and two thousand and nine the price

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Speaker 1: falls from four dollars a WoT to two dollars a WoT.

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Speaker 1: So what does this first big decline mean for the industry.

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Speaker 2: It has a little wobble, But the German market expanded

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Speaker 2: because of course Germany still had its feet and tower,

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Speaker 2: no cap and suddenly you've got two dollars what modules

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Speaker 2: rather than four dollars of what modules. So developers in

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Speaker 2: Germany were basically going catching the US market. There's this

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Speaker 2: blot called Jiga Shah, who some of you may have

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Speaker 2: heard of, who since about two thousand and three had

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Speaker 2: been running a business called San Edison that sold commercial

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Speaker 2: rooftop solar in America to enterities like Walmarts.

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Speaker 1: And I should mention so Jigger Shaw, this guy you're

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Speaker 1: talking about, he actually was on this show. He now

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Speaker 1: runs an office in the US federal government that's basically

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Speaker 1: in charge of lending out money to energy transition companies,

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Speaker 1: companies you know, trying to make clean cement and that

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Speaker 1: sort of thing. So what's he doing back at this time?

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Speaker 2: So At this time, he was convincing companies like Whole

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Speaker 2: Foods and Walmart to sign twenty year power purchase agreements

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Speaker 2: with his company so that he could put solar power

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Speaker 2: on their roofs.

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Speaker 1: So it's again this idea of finance, this idea of

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Speaker 1: if he gets some institution like Walmart that everybody trusts

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Speaker 1: and everybody thinks is going to be around for twenty

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Speaker 1: years to promise to buy solar power for twenty years, presumably,

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Speaker 1: then he can get the financing to build the panels.

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Speaker 1: Now I mean, is that the basic idea exactly?

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Speaker 2: And then he would go to the financiers and say, look,

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Speaker 2: I'm selling this power to Whole Foods under a twenty

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Speaker 2: year power purchase agreement. This is not risky. Lend me

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Speaker 2: some money. And he had to do some convincing to

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Speaker 2: very and find the right person in each division, but

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Speaker 2: he did, and he was able to offer these retailers

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Speaker 2: solar power at prices which were reasonably attractive to them.

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Speaker 2: So it worked, it worked, and I think he did

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Speaker 2: very nicely in two thousand and nine because just like

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Speaker 2: because this company also had fixed PRICEE power purcuse agreements

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Speaker 2: in place, and suddenly modules were much cheaper than they'd expect.

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Speaker 1: Huh ah, huh, So his margins go up the cheaper

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Speaker 1: modules are. He's still getting paid the same for twenty

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Speaker 1: five years. It's great for him. So clearly the rise

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Speaker 1: of Chinese manufacturing of solar panels is a big part

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Speaker 1: of this story, is it? Where does that happen in

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Speaker 1: the story.

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Speaker 2: It's been happening all along. I mean one of the

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Speaker 2: companies that did an IPO in two thousand and five

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Speaker 2: with Suntech, which is the Chinese. Essentially it's using technology

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Speaker 2: developed in Australia at the University of New South Wales,

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Speaker 2: but it's it is a Chinese company went by a

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Speaker 2: Chinese person. And yeah, so the Chinese are there from

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Speaker 2: the beginning. But around this time, the polysilicon price is

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Speaker 2: coming down as well. So the polysilicon price is coming

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Speaker 2: down to the sort of sixty dollars a kilogram range

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Speaker 2: from four hundred dollars a kilogram.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So this time where it's like twenty eleven something, it's.

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Speaker 2: About twenty eleven twenty eleven, module prices have dropped to

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Speaker 2: one dollar or what one dollar?

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Speaker 1: Okay, so they've fallen in half again. They went from

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Speaker 1: four to two and out of one. And you mentioned polysilicon.

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Speaker 1: Silicon prices are coming down. That's because what people are

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Speaker 1: building more and more of these factories. There's an economy

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Speaker 1: of scale. It's that's the sort of classic industrial development.

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Speaker 2: What you're starting to get then, is Chinese companies figuring

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Speaker 2: it out. So there were hundreds, I mean pretty probably

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Speaker 2: literally one hundred Chinese companies attempted to make polysilicon. But

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Speaker 2: making polysilicon is hard, and most of them failed, and

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Speaker 2: some of them were extremely random companies. Then again, the

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Speaker 2: largest polysilicon maker in China these days, Tongway, started as

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Speaker 2: a fish food maker.

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Speaker 1: So fish food, and then they decided to pivot to polysilicon.

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Speaker 2: No, they still make fish food.

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Speaker 1: Aha, how'd that happen? Is there some genius there? They

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Speaker 1: make a million different things? Or do they just make

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Speaker 1: fish food in polysilicon?

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Speaker 2: They do just make fish food. No, now they make

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Speaker 2: polysilicon fish food sold a wafers, cells and modules, U huh.

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Speaker 2: But they still get about ten percent of the revenue

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Speaker 2: for fish food.

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Speaker 1: Amazing. So with two thousand and eleven or so, China's

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Speaker 1: kind of not just solar panel industry, but the raw materials,

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Speaker 1: the polysilicon part is coming online, and you're getting this

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Speaker 1: kind of manufacturing ecosystem for which China is famous in

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Speaker 1: a lot of industries, right, Like they don't just make

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Speaker 1: one thing. There's often a region where lots of different

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Speaker 1: manufacturers are making sort of components for each other, and

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Speaker 1: there's kind of a whole value chain in one place.

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Speaker 1: That happening in China at this point.

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Speaker 2: This is probably when it's starting to appear. So in

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Speaker 2: Jiangsu Province, if you want to buy encapsulant or silver paste,

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Speaker 2: then you can talk to somebody twenty kilometers away instead

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Speaker 2: of talking to somebody in another country. And this is

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Speaker 2: starting to be very convenient.

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Speaker 1: Like clearly the price has kept falling by a lot

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Speaker 1: from one dollar, Like why does the price keep coming

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Speaker 1: down after two thousand and eleven.

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Speaker 2: So, solar panels are a manufactured commodity, and they they

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Speaker 2: have something called the experienced curve, which probably a lot

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Speaker 2: of things have, but then they're difficult to notice, particularly

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Speaker 2: I they're not very commoditized. So Moore's law is a

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Speaker 2: special sort of experienced curve. But the experience curve just

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Speaker 2: means that every time you double cumulative experience that we

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Speaker 2: have as a species doing something, we get a certain

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Speaker 2: amount better at it, And in the case of solar panels,

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Speaker 2: it's probably about twenty eight percent better at it. And

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Speaker 2: that comes from having a better recipe to get your

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Speaker 2: solar models more efficient, and you slicing your wafers more thinly,

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Speaker 2: all kinds of little tweaks you make to use less

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Speaker 2: material and to make your machines through output more energy

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Speaker 2: and to make the thing more efficient.

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Speaker 1: Uh huh. So I mean, in a way, is like

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Speaker 1: the big story of technological development in human life, certainly

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Speaker 1: since the Industrial Revolution a couple hundred years ago, right,

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Speaker 1: you know, people make these incremental improvements one after the other,

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Speaker 1: and things get cheaper and cheaper. And you're saying, that's

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Speaker 1: basically how the price of solar panels fell all the

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Speaker 1: way from four dollars a WAT to less than ten

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Speaker 1: cents a WAT, which is where we are now. So

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Speaker 1: I want to kind of take stock, like just what

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Speaker 1: does this wild decline in the price of solar panels, Like,

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Speaker 1: what does it mean for the world.

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Speaker 2: I think it's basically really good news. So the power

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Speaker 2: only only supplied about six percent of the world's electricity

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Speaker 2: last year. But it's growing and nobody and you couldn't

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Speaker 2: stop solid now if you wanted.

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Speaker 1: To, just because it's so cheap. Like, yes, there are

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Speaker 1: subsidies for it in various ways, but even without subsidies,

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Speaker 1: in many cases it would be the best option.

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Speaker 2: Is that the case exactly? And there are places where

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Speaker 2: I mean, I love talking about Pakistan right now because

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Speaker 2: Pakistan probably has about twenty gigawatts of relatively new solar panels,

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Speaker 2: most of which the normal grid, that the traditional grid

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Speaker 2: has no idea about where they are or whether they exist.

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Speaker 1: Huh. So it's just people like going to the store

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Speaker 1: buying solar panels and putting them up in their backyard

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Speaker 1: or on their roof.

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Speaker 2: And it's factories who are putting solar panels on their roofs.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they're probably not just going to the store.

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Speaker 2: They're probably buying the re bulk. It's farmers putting them

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Speaker 2: in instead of to run their irrigation pumps instead of

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Speaker 2: these or generators. I actually only know about this because

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Speaker 2: I can see it in Chinese customs data. And then

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Speaker 2: when you go to Google Earth and look at Lahore

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Speaker 2: or Karachi or is Lamabad, you can see that all

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Speaker 2: the roofs have solar panels on them. A lot of

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Speaker 2: the activity in the developing world increasingly is outside government programs.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there are some countries which in the developing

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Speaker 2: world too, that have government supported billoms, like Vietnam also

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Speaker 2: built about twenty gigawats of solar into nineteen and twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty under a probably slightly badly calibrated government program. But

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Speaker 2: increasingly it's actually the businesses and individuals that are buying

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Speaker 2: solar themselves because it's just less effort than trying to

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Speaker 2: go through the government than trying to get support.

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Speaker 1: In a minute, what the world will look like in

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Speaker 1: the relatively near future when solar energy is free in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the day in a lot of places.

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Speaker 1: Give me the big picture for like, where we are

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Speaker 1: twenty years ago solar twenty yeah, twenty ish years ago,

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Speaker 1: twenty five years ago. Certainly twenty five years ago, solar

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Speaker 1: power was like, if you're a rich hippie in Marine County,

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Speaker 1: maybe you spend a crazy amount of money to put

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Speaker 1: solar power on your roof to feel good about yourself. Right,

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Speaker 1: it was a kind of fringe thing. Where are we now?

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Speaker 2: The sun is one solar power was the by far

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Speaker 2: the largest source of new installed capacity last year, so

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Speaker 2: of any generations. Now people hate it when you compare capacity,

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Speaker 2: but about four hundred and forty four gigawatts of solar

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Speaker 2: panels were installed last year worldwide. Okay, And bearing in

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Speaker 2: mind that the whole power grid after that is about

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Speaker 2: nine three hundred gigawads. So if we keep adding half

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Speaker 2: a terror what a year, and we'll do more than

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Speaker 2: that this year is going to be about six hundred

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Speaker 2: gigawads this year. I mean, adding half a terror what

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Speaker 2: every year to a nine point three terror what grid,

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Speaker 2: you pretty quickly get to real amounts of contribution. And

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Speaker 2: this is why I'm pretty sure that by twenty thirty

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Speaker 2: power will basically be free whenever it's sunny.

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Speaker 1: Power will basically be free whenever it's sunny in around

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Speaker 1: the world pretty much twenty thirty is soon, especially in

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Speaker 1: like energy terms, like twenty sol.

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Speaker 2: Is fast, like most energy infrastructure is really slow to build,

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Speaker 2: but solar is really fast and the only way. And

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Speaker 2: we're already getting to the point where in California, even

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Speaker 2: in Germany on a sunny day, the wholesale power price

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Speaker 2: goes very low or even negative and what you have.

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Speaker 2: So the most likely thing, the most sensible thing to

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Speaker 2: do in response to that, is to hand free power

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Speaker 2: at that time to the customers so they can actually

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Speaker 2: increase their demand at that time and then charge them

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Speaker 2: more later when the sun's gone down.

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Speaker 1: Huh. So let's talk about that in a little bit

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Speaker 1: more detail. So there is this thing that is already

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Speaker 1: true in California among other places, right, which is in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the day, because of the growth of

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Speaker 1: solar there is more electricity being generated than people are using, right, great, amazing,

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Speaker 1: And so one option is you could just essentially not

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Speaker 1: take that electricity, right, you could just not use it.

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Speaker 1: But you're saying that's not what's going to happen. Tell

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Speaker 1: me more about that.

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Speaker 2: Like, some of that will definitely happen. I mean, we

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Speaker 2: call it curtailment when you literally turn off the solar

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Speaker 2: panels to stop them doing any damage to your grid.

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Speaker 2: And you can do that. It's super easy. It's actually

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Speaker 2: way easier than it is for fossil fuel plants. What

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Speaker 2: makes most sense is to offer three your extremely cheap

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Speaker 2: power to people in the hope that they'll actually use it.

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Speaker 2: You know, if as an individual you might turn your

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Speaker 2: air conditioner on to make your house really nice and cool,

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Speaker 2: so you can turn it off in the evening and

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Speaker 2: your house will stay comfortable into the night. You might

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Speaker 2: do your laundry, and if you're in an industrial company,

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Speaker 2: you can do a lot more. So. If you have

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Speaker 2: a meat freezer, you can chill it to minus twenty

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Speaker 2: seven degrees celsius and then let it warm up to

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Speaker 2: minus nineteen. When power is expensive, you can charge your

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Speaker 2: electric car, I mean especially if you can charge at work.

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Speaker 2: You can heat your water for a shower later. There

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Speaker 2: were all kinds of things that we can do to

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Speaker 2: shift when we use power into the daytime. And of course,

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Speaker 2: if you've got batteries, you can charge your batteries.

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Speaker 1: Yes, So what's happening with storage, right, that's the sort

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Speaker 1: of complementary piece of this that everybody always talks about

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Speaker 1: what's happening with storage.

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Speaker 2: So storage is definitely growing. I just looked at the

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Speaker 2: new energy storage market outlook from my colleagues, and a

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Speaker 2: new build energy storage grew seventy six percent. They estimate

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Speaker 2: that it's grown about over seventy percent from twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: three to twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: So it's growing. That's good, and it's basically lithium ion

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Speaker 1: batteries and kind of batteries that are in electric vehicles.

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Speaker 2: It's mostly just lithium ion batteries, you know, because electric

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Speaker 2: vehicles have driven them down the experienced curve as well.

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Speaker 2: And electric vehicles, laptops, phones, these are actually quite They're

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Speaker 2: getting more and more affordable, and so I think we

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Speaker 2: can probably assume that by twenty thirty you have batteries

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Speaker 2: charging and discharging every day to absorb some of that

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Speaker 2: daytime solar power.

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Speaker 1: And the question is how much?

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Speaker 2: Question is how much are yeah?

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Speaker 1: And what does that turn on? I mean, is it

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Speaker 1: just how fast do lithium ion batteries get cheap? Is

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Speaker 1: that the key unknown question?

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Speaker 2: It does. But I think what people don't realize when

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Speaker 2: they talk about solar and batteries being the answer to everything,

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Speaker 2: But first of all, they may be write in climates

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Speaker 2: that are not very seasonal. So if every day you

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Speaker 2: have a long day and then a similar length night,

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Speaker 2: then it may actually be fairly feasible to run your

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Speaker 2: civilization on solar and batteries in places like northern Europe

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Speaker 2: where I am, then you're going to hit the problem

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Speaker 2: that the biggest battery you can imagine will not hold

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Speaker 2: power from summer to winter, and the economics of that

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Speaker 2: would be terrible because the first bunch of batteries you

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Speaker 2: put in that charge and discharge every day, their cost

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Speaker 2: per cycle is whether to be low because they have

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Speaker 2: a lot of cycles. However, your next wave of batteries

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Speaker 2: isn't necessarily needed every day, and if they're cycling every

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Speaker 2: two days, for example, that it actually doubles the cost

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Speaker 2: per cycle.

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Speaker 1: The less you use it, the more expensive it is,

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Speaker 1: sort of per unit of service is providing you.

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Speaker 2: The economics are building a battery, the cycles once a

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Speaker 2: year are almost impossible. I mean, you might be able

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Speaker 2: to do something like feel a huge tank with the

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Speaker 2: chemical fuel, or feel a huge big tank hot of salt,

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Speaker 2: like you could. What you could do is make a

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Speaker 2: big tank of salt molten and then use that heat

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Speaker 2: in the winter, because salt is relatively cheap, so you

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Speaker 2: could have a lot of it to make hot.

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Speaker 1: So you could build essentially like a giant salt cavern

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Speaker 1: under the earth, spend all summer heating it up, and

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Speaker 1: all winter using the heat to whatever makes demon spin

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Speaker 1: a turbine that's that's.

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Speaker 2: A treat more to heat your home. I mean, that

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Speaker 2: would be the probably the easiest way of doing it.

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Speaker 2: But exactly malta salt is kind of a pain to

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Speaker 2: work with as well, because it tends to if it

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Speaker 2: gets above about two hundred, if it gets below about

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Speaker 2: two hundred and seventy one celsius, as I recall, it freezes,

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Speaker 2: and so if you've got any pipes that it's meant

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Speaker 2: to be going down, your pipes are now full of

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Speaker 2: just non molten salt.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So is the sort of medium term unsolved problem

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Speaker 1: long duration storage for these reasons, like you clearly see

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Speaker 1: a very short term path to free power in the

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Speaker 1: middle of the day. It sounds like you're pretty optimistic

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Speaker 1: about kind of overnight charging, like you when you can

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Speaker 1: charge in the day and discharge overnight, like lithium ion

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Speaker 1: will do that. But once you get to the sort

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Speaker 1: of seasonal problems, is that where we don't really have

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Speaker 1: a clear answer.

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Speaker 2: Is it a lot less obvious what the answer is,

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Speaker 2: which is why as a solar analyst, I say a

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Speaker 2: lot that we should be building wind as well. I mean,

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Speaker 2: because the great thing about wind, especially in a climate

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Speaker 2: like Northern Europe's and a lot of others around the world.

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Speaker 2: Is it blows at night and in the winter.

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Speaker 1: Uh huh, it's a good compliment. So wind has gotten cheaper,

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Speaker 1: but not nearly as much cheaper as solar. Right, it

428
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Speaker 1: didn't win clearly in the way that solar won. Why not?

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Speaker 2: Wind is heavy engineering, it's not bulk manufacturing. That said,

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Speaker 2: there have been huge improvements in wind, in wind turbines,

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Speaker 2: and in wind maintenance, and in fact in financing for

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Speaker 2: wind and wind havings are just getting bigger. I mean

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Speaker 2: one of the things you can do with wind turbines,

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Speaker 2: as as the materials to make blades get better and better,

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Speaker 2: you can make wind turbines bigger and it's windier high up.

436
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Speaker 1: So wind has gotten cheaper, but it seems like building,

437
00:25:12,756 --> 00:25:19,076
Speaker 1: you know, gargantuan blades, gargantuan turbines. It doesn't have that

438
00:25:19,476 --> 00:25:26,036
Speaker 1: beautiful commodity race to the lowest price element that solar

439
00:25:26,116 --> 00:25:29,596
Speaker 1: panels have that dead simple They don't have to move

440
00:25:29,756 --> 00:25:32,156
Speaker 1: once you make them. You can make a little one

441
00:25:32,276 --> 00:25:34,356
Speaker 1: or a big one just by adding more. Like I

442
00:25:34,596 --> 00:25:37,316
Speaker 1: love how commodified solar panels are. I know it's a

443
00:25:37,396 --> 00:25:40,756
Speaker 1: terrible business. To be in. But it's the same reason, right,

444
00:25:40,796 --> 00:25:43,796
Speaker 1: it's a terrible business to be in because it's this amazing, cheap,

445
00:25:44,476 --> 00:25:47,636
Speaker 1: relatively simple thing that that is quite different from a

446
00:25:48,156 --> 00:25:51,236
Speaker 1: turbine the size of a giant building that is a

447
00:25:51,316 --> 00:25:54,556
Speaker 1: thousand feet up in the air, or whatever it really is.

448
00:25:55,276 --> 00:25:58,276
Speaker 2: I mean, solar panels are the first major eeditacy generation

449
00:25:58,396 --> 00:26:00,196
Speaker 2: source that isn't doesn't evolve anything moving.

450
00:26:01,156 --> 00:26:07,276
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's incredible. Yeah, nothing to get stuck. You've been

451
00:26:07,356 --> 00:26:11,716
Speaker 1: doing this job, You've been following the solar power market

452
00:26:11,836 --> 00:26:15,716
Speaker 1: for twenty years. When you look ahead another twenty years

453
00:26:16,516 --> 00:26:19,036
Speaker 1: from now, what do you think will be going on?

454
00:26:21,716 --> 00:26:27,516
Speaker 2: Ah, that's such a hard question. I mean, I think

455
00:26:27,676 --> 00:26:32,196
Speaker 2: we will. I'm actually relatively optimistic about us having us

456
00:26:32,276 --> 00:26:36,316
Speaker 2: achieving a worldwide energy transition. I think that in twenty

457
00:26:36,436 --> 00:26:41,356
Speaker 2: years nations that are currently developing will have substantial economies

458
00:26:41,436 --> 00:26:49,436
Speaker 2: running substantially on solar power and batteries, and I hope

459
00:26:49,476 --> 00:26:53,276
Speaker 2: they also have air conditioning and ways to make to

460
00:26:53,356 --> 00:26:56,596
Speaker 2: protect themselves from the effects of extreme climate change, because

461
00:26:56,596 --> 00:27:00,676
Speaker 2: we will also have increasing the extreme climate change. So

462
00:27:00,756 --> 00:27:05,756
Speaker 2: I think the developing world will be substantially solar power

463
00:27:05,916 --> 00:27:07,236
Speaker 2: at least the bits of bit of the sunny and

464
00:27:07,396 --> 00:27:11,956
Speaker 2: realize that's not actually the whole developing world. I hope

465
00:27:12,036 --> 00:27:14,516
Speaker 2: there is a I hope there's there are much more

466
00:27:14,556 --> 00:27:19,596
Speaker 2: widespread transmission grids around the world because it's often sunny

467
00:27:19,636 --> 00:27:21,516
Speaker 2: and windy in one place when it's not sunny or

468
00:27:21,556 --> 00:27:24,756
Speaker 2: windy in another place. And if the more we can

469
00:27:25,076 --> 00:27:27,676
Speaker 2: we can run big power lines to smooth that out

470
00:27:27,716 --> 00:27:31,036
Speaker 2: and sell each other power, the easier this whole energy

471
00:27:31,076 --> 00:27:34,276
Speaker 2: transition will be and the less gas will need to burn.

472
00:27:34,476 --> 00:27:38,596
Speaker 1: Sometimes there's there's a project now where they want to

473
00:27:38,636 --> 00:27:41,956
Speaker 1: build solar panels in Australia and run a wire to

474
00:27:42,156 --> 00:27:45,556
Speaker 1: Singapore to send the energy to Singapore. Right, I love

475
00:27:45,636 --> 00:27:47,876
Speaker 1: that one. I love that idea. Is that Is that

476
00:27:47,996 --> 00:27:50,476
Speaker 1: a real thing or is that just like silly?

477
00:27:51,836 --> 00:27:57,716
Speaker 2: It's a really big cable. I mean, like, I hope

478
00:27:57,756 --> 00:28:00,316
Speaker 2: they've figured this all figured out, But that is that's

479
00:28:00,356 --> 00:28:02,116
Speaker 2: a four thousand kilometer cable.

480
00:28:02,716 --> 00:28:05,556
Speaker 1: Uh huh. I mean there's cables. I know they're different

481
00:28:05,676 --> 00:28:08,596
Speaker 1: kinds of cables, but like they ran a cable across

482
00:28:08,596 --> 00:28:11,956
Speaker 1: the Atlanta for Telegraph whatever one hundred and fifty years

483
00:28:11,956 --> 00:28:12,636
Speaker 1: ago or something.

484
00:28:14,236 --> 00:28:17,156
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's that's a good reason to think

485
00:28:17,196 --> 00:28:20,516
Speaker 2: it is possible. It's I think it's technically possible. I

486
00:28:20,556 --> 00:28:24,916
Speaker 2: suppose part of me wonders whether whether Singapore went decided

487
00:28:24,916 --> 00:28:27,476
Speaker 2: it's easier to buy power from, for example, Indonesia, which

488
00:28:27,516 --> 00:28:30,676
Speaker 2: is closer. Yes, I mean Australia was just so far

489
00:28:30,836 --> 00:28:33,276
Speaker 2: away from Singapore.

490
00:28:35,276 --> 00:28:37,436
Speaker 1: Yes. I mean that's why it's sort of so thrilling

491
00:28:37,596 --> 00:28:39,636
Speaker 1: to consider it, right, this idea of like, well, we

492
00:28:39,716 --> 00:28:42,796
Speaker 1: got sun down here, they need power up there. Let's

493
00:28:42,916 --> 00:28:44,756
Speaker 1: just build a big cord.

494
00:28:46,516 --> 00:28:48,196
Speaker 2: I mean, also with a solo analyst, I prefer the

495
00:28:48,236 --> 00:28:51,436
Speaker 2: idea of running tables east to west. I mean, if

496
00:28:51,476 --> 00:28:53,076
Speaker 2: we just put a big cable all the way around

497
00:28:53,076 --> 00:28:54,756
Speaker 2: the world, we're sorted.

498
00:28:55,356 --> 00:28:57,316
Speaker 1: Right, because it's always sunny somewhere, so.

499
00:28:57,396 --> 00:28:59,396
Speaker 2: We're sunny on about half the world at one time.

500
00:29:00,316 --> 00:29:06,396
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny. I didn't even think of that, of course. Well,

501
00:29:06,796 --> 00:29:09,076
Speaker 1: so a couple of things. We haven't talked about the grid.

502
00:29:09,236 --> 00:29:12,516
Speaker 1: We're talking about wires and plugging things in. We haven't

503
00:29:12,516 --> 00:29:14,956
Speaker 1: talked about moving power just from one place to another

504
00:29:14,996 --> 00:29:18,356
Speaker 1: place not so far away. You know, I understand that

505
00:29:18,436 --> 00:29:22,036
Speaker 1: the grid is in many places, including in the developed world,

506
00:29:22,596 --> 00:29:25,836
Speaker 1: not optimally efficient and is a sort of binding constraint

507
00:29:26,036 --> 00:29:28,116
Speaker 1: in some instances, like tell me about the grid.

508
00:29:28,516 --> 00:29:34,916
Speaker 2: Well, grids are actually pretty efficient. There's so as you

509
00:29:35,036 --> 00:29:39,716
Speaker 2: move from quite a centralized power system with large power

510
00:29:39,756 --> 00:29:43,316
Speaker 2: plants in a couple of locations to a decentralized system

511
00:29:43,316 --> 00:29:45,676
Speaker 2: where you've got wind farms and solar farms all over

512
00:29:45,716 --> 00:29:49,076
Speaker 2: the place being connected, you need a lot more grid, okay,

513
00:29:49,116 --> 00:29:51,916
Speaker 2: And we estimate that investment in the grid has to

514
00:29:51,996 --> 00:29:55,236
Speaker 2: be about sixty percent of the investment in the actual

515
00:29:55,276 --> 00:29:58,356
Speaker 2: solar and wind farms themselves by twenty thirty to stick

516
00:29:58,396 --> 00:30:00,836
Speaker 2: to a their zero pathway. So investment in the grid

517
00:30:00,876 --> 00:30:03,876
Speaker 2: needs to be substantial. We need to like bolster the

518
00:30:04,956 --> 00:30:07,636
Speaker 2: short range grid because literally, if you're trying to feed

519
00:30:07,636 --> 00:30:09,636
Speaker 2: too much electricity at one point in the at one time,

520
00:30:09,716 --> 00:30:11,716
Speaker 2: it gets stuck and you can't get it all swhere,

521
00:30:11,756 --> 00:30:13,636
Speaker 2: and then some of your farms don't get paid.

522
00:30:14,196 --> 00:30:16,996
Speaker 1: And also, just to be clear, we're electrifying, right, We're

523
00:30:17,036 --> 00:30:21,076
Speaker 1: not only switching the source of electricity from fossil fuel

524
00:30:21,516 --> 00:30:26,436
Speaker 1: to solar power, but we're also taking things like stoves

525
00:30:26,996 --> 00:30:31,116
Speaker 1: and cars that have been previously directly powered by fossil

526
00:30:31,156 --> 00:30:33,636
Speaker 1: fuel and powering them with electricity, So we just need

527
00:30:33,716 --> 00:30:37,436
Speaker 1: more wires. However, we're getting the electricity or more room

528
00:30:37,476 --> 00:30:39,836
Speaker 1: in the wires pretty.

529
00:30:39,636 --> 00:30:46,116
Speaker 2: Much, yes, yes, But building grids specifically, for example, a

530
00:30:46,196 --> 00:30:49,436
Speaker 2: solar plant is quite tough because the utilization of the

531
00:30:49,476 --> 00:30:49,996
Speaker 2: grid will be.

532
00:30:50,036 --> 00:30:54,276
Speaker 1: Quite low because the solar plant is not providing electricity

533
00:30:54,316 --> 00:30:55,756
Speaker 1: all the time exactly.

534
00:30:55,796 --> 00:30:59,316
Speaker 2: I mean, solar plant output is very peaky. It really

535
00:30:59,356 --> 00:31:01,476
Speaker 2: does peak in the middle of the day. You can

536
00:31:01,516 --> 00:31:03,476
Speaker 2: have panels that follow the sun and then it's less peaky,

537
00:31:03,556 --> 00:31:05,196
Speaker 2: but it's still not a big part of the day.

538
00:31:07,876 --> 00:31:10,276
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, basically we have to build more grid.

539
00:31:10,396 --> 00:31:12,876
Speaker 2: We have to connect both both local grid and also

540
00:31:12,996 --> 00:31:16,076
Speaker 2: long range grid just to connect whole regions.

541
00:31:16,996 --> 00:31:20,596
Speaker 1: And is that happening, Like is that becoming a constraint already?

542
00:31:20,756 --> 00:31:24,636
Speaker 1: Like where are we in terms of the relationship between

543
00:31:24,676 --> 00:31:27,916
Speaker 1: the development of solar power and the development of the grid.

544
00:31:28,476 --> 00:31:31,836
Speaker 2: So if you walk into any solar conference all around

545
00:31:31,876 --> 00:31:34,516
Speaker 2: the world and say, oh, the problem in this market

546
00:31:34,636 --> 00:31:37,716
Speaker 2: is grid, then everyone will nod and say this person

547
00:31:37,836 --> 00:31:43,316
Speaker 2: knows what they are talking about, because the developers all

548
00:31:43,436 --> 00:31:46,356
Speaker 2: know how difficult it is to get Sometimes it's just

549
00:31:46,396 --> 00:31:48,156
Speaker 2: that they need to get permission to connect to the grid,

550
00:31:48,196 --> 00:31:49,996
Speaker 2: and because there are hundreds of people trying to get

551
00:31:49,996 --> 00:31:51,996
Speaker 2: permission to connect to the grid, and the grid has

552
00:31:52,036 --> 00:31:55,476
Speaker 2: to be quite choosy, and they don't and grids just

553
00:31:55,796 --> 00:31:56,956
Speaker 2: a lot of the time they just don't have the

554
00:31:57,036 --> 00:31:59,956
Speaker 2: manpower to make that decision when you've got when you've

555
00:31:59,996 --> 00:32:03,076
Speaker 2: suddenly got hundreds of power plants asking whether they can

556
00:32:03,516 --> 00:32:06,156
Speaker 2: join your wires like this is not necessarily a decision

557
00:32:06,196 --> 00:32:08,596
Speaker 2: making process that grids were set up to do. So

558
00:32:08,756 --> 00:32:11,996
Speaker 2: sometimes it is as simple as manpower. Sometimes it's actually

559
00:32:11,996 --> 00:32:14,916
Speaker 2: a question of building, of their being substantially more grid

560
00:32:15,356 --> 00:32:19,996
Speaker 2: built needed. But grid is always a problem, and there

561
00:32:20,036 --> 00:32:23,436
Speaker 2: are there are thousands of gigawatts of solar and wind

562
00:32:23,516 --> 00:32:27,036
Speaker 2: projects on the planning table but waiting to get permission

563
00:32:27,076 --> 00:32:29,916
Speaker 2: to connect to the grid and get built around the world.

564
00:32:30,836 --> 00:32:36,676
Speaker 1: So you mentioned that the US is weird in terms

565
00:32:36,716 --> 00:32:41,716
Speaker 1: of solar power? Why Why is the US weird in

566
00:32:41,836 --> 00:32:42,716
Speaker 1: terms of solar power?

567
00:32:43,156 --> 00:32:45,796
Speaker 2: So the US is much slower to grow than you

568
00:32:45,796 --> 00:32:48,236
Speaker 2: would expect of a market of its size and wealth

569
00:32:48,436 --> 00:32:54,276
Speaker 2: and support level, And partly that's because it's got quite

570
00:32:54,276 --> 00:32:57,916
Speaker 2: a Nimbi problem. It's hard to get permission to build plants.

571
00:32:58,436 --> 00:33:01,076
Speaker 2: It's also partly because the US is an expensive place

572
00:33:01,116 --> 00:33:05,396
Speaker 2: to buy solar panels, which again is partly because there's

573
00:33:05,396 --> 00:33:08,236
Speaker 2: been a trade war between the US and China since

574
00:33:08,756 --> 00:33:11,636
Speaker 2: twenty welve. Obama brought in the first import tariffs on

575
00:33:11,796 --> 00:33:15,956
Speaker 2: Chinese modules, and consistently solar modules in the US are

576
00:33:16,876 --> 00:33:19,476
Speaker 2: at least double the prices that they are elsewhere.

577
00:33:19,796 --> 00:33:24,236
Speaker 1: Oh wow, So so you were saying that the global

578
00:33:24,436 --> 00:33:29,356
Speaker 1: price of solar panels now is nine point something per what?

579
00:33:29,916 --> 00:33:32,196
Speaker 1: Not nine cents per what?

580
00:33:32,316 --> 00:33:34,636
Speaker 2: You would play at least twice that in the US

581
00:33:34,796 --> 00:33:35,076
Speaker 2: right now?

582
00:33:35,556 --> 00:33:37,876
Speaker 1: Oh wow? So it's like twenty cents a watt instead

583
00:33:37,916 --> 00:33:39,516
Speaker 1: of nine point four sense per what?

584
00:33:39,716 --> 00:33:42,276
Speaker 2: It's putty something since per what I think, although although

585
00:33:42,316 --> 00:33:45,236
Speaker 2: you might get some that some that are in containers

586
00:33:45,276 --> 00:33:46,556
Speaker 2: that are port and need to be sold in a

587
00:33:46,596 --> 00:33:47,596
Speaker 2: great hurry for a bit less.

588
00:33:47,716 --> 00:33:50,516
Speaker 1: Uh huh. So is that just because of tariffs that

589
00:33:50,676 --> 00:33:51,556
Speaker 1: exist in the US and not?

590
00:33:51,796 --> 00:33:57,596
Speaker 2: No, that's basically tariffs are also the uncertainty because because

591
00:33:57,636 --> 00:34:02,476
Speaker 2: the US import strips are quite complicated, if you're a developer,

592
00:34:02,556 --> 00:34:04,556
Speaker 2: you don't want to take the risk of buying a

593
00:34:04,636 --> 00:34:08,076
Speaker 2: module that will be stopped at customs, So there's a

594
00:34:08,316 --> 00:34:10,916
Speaker 2: there's a strong sort of pushed towards just a few

595
00:34:10,996 --> 00:34:15,076
Speaker 2: name brands, and that also pushes out the prices a bit.

596
00:34:15,276 --> 00:34:17,396
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's basically the tariffs and the trade war.

597
00:34:19,436 --> 00:34:24,516
Speaker 1: Is there is there a US solar panel manufacturing industry

598
00:34:24,596 --> 00:34:26,036
Speaker 1: that that tariff is protecting.

599
00:34:27,236 --> 00:34:30,956
Speaker 2: There wasn't for a long time. There was First Solar,

600
00:34:30,956 --> 00:34:36,276
Speaker 2: which manufactured mostly in Malaysia, and there is a move

601
00:34:36,356 --> 00:34:40,076
Speaker 2: to onshore it specifically since the Inflation Reduction Act passed.

602
00:34:40,676 --> 00:34:43,516
Speaker 2: The inflation of Reduction app is quite is pretty generous

603
00:34:43,596 --> 00:34:46,636
Speaker 2: for solar installations, but it's really generous for solar manufacturers

604
00:34:46,996 --> 00:34:49,876
Speaker 2: setting up plants on US soil. And there has been

605
00:34:49,996 --> 00:34:53,236
Speaker 2: a boom and announcements of solar factories returning to the US.

606
00:34:53,916 --> 00:34:54,636
Speaker 2: We'll see how they do.

607
00:34:55,476 --> 00:34:58,796
Speaker 1: Uh huh. Let's talk about the Inflation Reduction Act the IRA.

608
00:34:59,876 --> 00:35:03,796
Speaker 1: It's a giant bill. Despite its name, it's much more

609
00:35:03,876 --> 00:35:08,276
Speaker 1: about sort of subsidizing the energy transition than about specifically

610
00:35:08,356 --> 00:35:14,876
Speaker 1: fighting inflation. How does that affect the adoption of solar

611
00:35:14,956 --> 00:35:15,996
Speaker 1: power in the US?

612
00:35:17,356 --> 00:35:19,796
Speaker 2: I mean, to me, it feels like somebody is pushing

613
00:35:19,956 --> 00:35:23,516
Speaker 2: down really hard on the accelerator while the handbrakes on.

614
00:35:25,276 --> 00:35:27,916
Speaker 1: So the break is the tariff and the accelerator is

615
00:35:27,956 --> 00:35:29,156
Speaker 1: the inflation reductory, which.

616
00:35:29,036 --> 00:35:31,516
Speaker 2: Is the tariff. And also the difficulty with planning, with

617
00:35:31,676 --> 00:35:34,436
Speaker 2: getting planning permission to do things in the US, and

618
00:35:34,556 --> 00:35:37,676
Speaker 2: also the fact that grid is also an issue in

619
00:35:37,836 --> 00:35:43,676
Speaker 2: the US as everywhere else, and the gas and the

620
00:35:43,756 --> 00:35:46,436
Speaker 2: gas is the fact that the Inflation Reduction Act will

621
00:35:46,436 --> 00:35:48,236
Speaker 2: give you loads of money if you've managed to get

622
00:35:48,236 --> 00:35:52,396
Speaker 2: one of these projects through. There is a reason why

623
00:35:52,436 --> 00:35:56,516
Speaker 2: one of your fastest growing regional markets is Texas because

624
00:35:57,076 --> 00:35:59,196
Speaker 2: there's not a lot of breaks in Texas. There are

625
00:35:59,356 --> 00:36:01,836
Speaker 2: data center setting up there that will liquase power demand,

626
00:36:02,676 --> 00:36:04,716
Speaker 2: soldar and wind boom really booming there.

627
00:36:05,196 --> 00:36:06,716
Speaker 1: There's not a lot of weight in Texas.

628
00:36:08,236 --> 00:36:11,516
Speaker 2: There's not a lot of nim It's a very very

629
00:36:12,996 --> 00:36:14,716
Speaker 2: it's a market where you can actually build things.

630
00:36:15,196 --> 00:36:19,356
Speaker 1: It is interesting, right because politically, solar power has this

631
00:36:20,516 --> 00:36:22,956
Speaker 1: left valance in the US, has a very sort of

632
00:36:23,036 --> 00:36:26,476
Speaker 1: democratic leaning valence. Texas is a very republican state, and

633
00:36:26,516 --> 00:36:29,516
Speaker 1: the fact that solar power is booming the most there

634
00:36:29,836 --> 00:36:33,796
Speaker 1: is really telling. It really is.

635
00:36:33,916 --> 00:36:38,276
Speaker 2: And batteries too. I mean, Texas is building when solar

636
00:36:38,356 --> 00:36:41,796
Speaker 2: and batteries at one of the most rapid paces of

637
00:36:41,876 --> 00:36:42,916
Speaker 2: any o region in the US.

638
00:36:43,676 --> 00:36:46,156
Speaker 1: So you started covering this field in two thousand and five,

639
00:36:49,036 --> 00:36:51,436
Speaker 1: right at the moment when it was all starting, and

640
00:36:53,076 --> 00:36:56,356
Speaker 1: nobody knew it at the time. But when you tell

641
00:36:56,436 --> 00:37:00,476
Speaker 1: the story, it all sounds sort of clear in retrospect, right, like,

642
00:37:01,396 --> 00:37:04,076
Speaker 1: solar panels are this fundamentally very simple thing. They don't

643
00:37:04,116 --> 00:37:09,316
Speaker 1: have to move, The input is pretty straightforward. Why has

644
00:37:09,356 --> 00:37:12,916
Speaker 1: it been so surprising? Why did nobody see it come in?

645
00:37:13,876 --> 00:37:15,396
Speaker 2: I think what we So, there are a couple of

646
00:37:15,436 --> 00:37:19,076
Speaker 2: things we didn't expect. So we didn't quite estimate correctly

647
00:37:19,156 --> 00:37:22,436
Speaker 2: how fast demand would pick up, and how and actually

648
00:37:23,076 --> 00:37:25,676
Speaker 2: how quickly governments would come in and set their own

649
00:37:25,716 --> 00:37:27,676
Speaker 2: subsidies realizing that the subdy didn't have to be so

650
00:37:27,796 --> 00:37:32,236
Speaker 2: high anymore, and how fast organic markets would kick off.

651
00:37:32,516 --> 00:37:36,396
Speaker 2: And we basically underestimated human ingenuity and how easy it

652
00:37:36,556 --> 00:37:39,036
Speaker 2: is to deploy something that is like a black rectangle

653
00:37:39,076 --> 00:37:41,716
Speaker 2: that comes out of a factory and you put it

654
00:37:41,756 --> 00:37:43,116
Speaker 2: in the some somewhere and wear it up.

655
00:37:46,676 --> 00:37:48,916
Speaker 1: We'll be back in a minute with the lightning round.

656
00:37:58,756 --> 00:38:03,076
Speaker 1: I want to finish with the lightning round, and I

657
00:38:03,196 --> 00:38:05,716
Speaker 1: want to talk a little bit about a particular part

658
00:38:05,756 --> 00:38:10,316
Speaker 1: of your book. So in the middle of your book,

659
00:38:11,276 --> 00:38:14,996
Speaker 1: right after a chapter called how markets set power prices,

660
00:38:15,676 --> 00:38:18,876
Speaker 1: and right before a chapter called solar after the two

661
00:38:18,916 --> 00:38:23,196
Speaker 1: thousand and eight crash, there's a chapter called networking and

662
00:38:23,396 --> 00:38:26,396
Speaker 1: other stuff not taught at state schools. And you're not

663
00:38:26,476 --> 00:38:30,196
Speaker 1: talking about like energy networks. You're talking about, you know,

664
00:38:30,756 --> 00:38:36,356
Speaker 1: going to meetings and introducing yourself to people. And I'm curious, Like,

665
00:38:36,556 --> 00:38:38,516
Speaker 1: it's an interesting chapter. I want to talk to you

666
00:38:38,516 --> 00:38:41,036
Speaker 1: about it, but like, what is that chapter doing in

667
00:38:41,116 --> 00:38:44,116
Speaker 1: the middle of a book about energy financing?

668
00:38:44,716 --> 00:38:47,916
Speaker 2: So, Jacob, I wrote this book for somebody like me

669
00:38:49,116 --> 00:38:54,876
Speaker 2: who is not particularly posh, came through the state school system,

670
00:38:54,916 --> 00:38:58,876
Speaker 2: which is the sort of government school system, and literally

671
00:38:58,996 --> 00:39:02,716
Speaker 2: had nobody to tell me things like how finance worked

672
00:39:02,996 --> 00:39:07,236
Speaker 2: or what you should wear to a meeting. And so

673
00:39:07,356 --> 00:39:10,836
Speaker 2: I wrote this book for somebody looking for a job

674
00:39:10,956 --> 00:39:13,996
Speaker 2: in something vaguely green. And this is one of the

675
00:39:14,076 --> 00:39:16,396
Speaker 2: things that I had to learn. And I think it

676
00:39:16,436 --> 00:39:19,076
Speaker 2: would have been useful to me to have someone sit

677
00:39:19,156 --> 00:39:21,556
Speaker 2: down and say these things. I would have been a

678
00:39:21,636 --> 00:39:24,396
Speaker 2: little bit less awkward in many many meetings.

679
00:39:24,756 --> 00:39:27,036
Speaker 1: So you do in this chapter just sort of give

680
00:39:27,156 --> 00:39:30,196
Speaker 1: some simple tips, like what are you say your three

681
00:39:30,356 --> 00:39:31,636
Speaker 1: top tips for networking?

682
00:39:31,956 --> 00:39:33,436
Speaker 2: I think you can ask people what they do, and

683
00:39:33,556 --> 00:39:35,236
Speaker 2: then you can ask them how they make money from it,

684
00:39:35,316 --> 00:39:37,476
Speaker 2: because they'll give you a much more interesting answer than

685
00:39:37,516 --> 00:39:39,916
Speaker 2: if you just let them talk about how their business

686
00:39:40,036 --> 00:39:41,796
Speaker 2: is great, because everyone talks about that.

687
00:39:43,236 --> 00:39:45,676
Speaker 1: What's one thing I should not do if I'm at

688
00:39:45,716 --> 00:39:46,836
Speaker 1: a networking event.

689
00:39:48,716 --> 00:39:51,676
Speaker 2: Probably talk too much to somebody who doesn't want to listen.

690
00:39:52,556 --> 00:39:52,796
Speaker 1: Uh.

691
00:39:53,556 --> 00:39:54,996
Speaker 2: I mean it doesn't have to be very often, but

692
00:39:55,076 --> 00:39:58,036
Speaker 2: I do sometimes get cornered by people who want to

693
00:39:58,076 --> 00:40:00,676
Speaker 2: talk about something that is very specific that I and

694
00:40:00,756 --> 00:40:02,396
Speaker 2: I will try very hard to find it interesting.

695
00:40:02,516 --> 00:40:06,636
Speaker 1: But what's your getaway strategy in that setting?

696
00:40:07,436 --> 00:40:11,316
Speaker 2: Ah? So this is a tip from from somebody else.

697
00:40:11,756 --> 00:40:15,396
Speaker 2: If you get drinks, get two drinks, and then if

698
00:40:15,436 --> 00:40:17,676
Speaker 2: you're stuck in a conversation that you're not happy with,

699
00:40:17,756 --> 00:40:18,996
Speaker 2: you say, oh, I have to go and find the

700
00:40:19,036 --> 00:40:22,356
Speaker 2: person who I got this drink for, and then you

701
00:40:22,436 --> 00:40:24,916
Speaker 2: get away. And if it's a really interesting conversation, you

702
00:40:24,996 --> 00:40:25,636
Speaker 2: have two drinks.

703
00:40:25,916 --> 00:40:30,236
Speaker 1: That is a very that's a very like prepared Do

704
00:40:30,316 --> 00:40:32,756
Speaker 1: you actually walk around networking events with two drinks in

705
00:40:32,796 --> 00:40:38,956
Speaker 1: your hands for just such a circumstance. Occasionally, there's a

706
00:40:39,036 --> 00:40:43,956
Speaker 1: section in this chapter called being female pros and cons?

707
00:40:45,076 --> 00:40:46,996
Speaker 1: What are the pros and cons of being female in

708
00:40:47,316 --> 00:40:48,276
Speaker 1: networking settings?

709
00:40:49,396 --> 00:40:51,836
Speaker 2: To be honest, I think I've benefited over the years

710
00:40:51,836 --> 00:40:53,556
Speaker 2: from the fact that people would would rather.

711
00:40:53,436 --> 00:40:56,316
Speaker 1: Have a woman on the panel on a panel like

712
00:40:56,476 --> 00:40:57,276
Speaker 1: Edimon on a.

713
00:40:57,316 --> 00:41:01,836
Speaker 2: Panel in like Visible. Like I'm sure that my profile

714
00:41:01,876 --> 00:41:03,876
Speaker 2: as an analyst has been improved by being a woman,

715
00:41:04,996 --> 00:41:06,236
Speaker 2: and I'm grateful to that.

716
00:41:06,956 --> 00:41:09,436
Speaker 1: And is the converse of that or is the flip

717
00:41:09,476 --> 00:41:12,316
Speaker 1: side of that it's been improved because there aren't very

718
00:41:12,396 --> 00:41:13,556
Speaker 1: many women in the field.

719
00:41:13,996 --> 00:41:15,396
Speaker 2: Yeah, but there are more than they used to be,

720
00:41:15,476 --> 00:41:17,996
Speaker 2: which is amazing. So this is working, Like the strategy

721
00:41:18,076 --> 00:41:19,876
Speaker 2: is working, so there are more and they're also more

722
00:41:19,916 --> 00:41:21,756
Speaker 2: confident to actually say proper things.

723
00:41:23,436 --> 00:41:25,676
Speaker 1: Kem and I ask you a couple of non networking questions.

724
00:41:26,956 --> 00:41:30,476
Speaker 1: What's one thing you wish more people understood about energy?

725
00:41:32,356 --> 00:41:34,796
Speaker 2: I wish people would understand the difference between capex and

726
00:41:34,916 --> 00:41:38,836
Speaker 2: op X. Uh huh, because like there's a huge difference,

727
00:41:38,876 --> 00:41:43,796
Speaker 2: but things that have high upfront cost and low running

728
00:41:43,876 --> 00:41:47,156
Speaker 2: cost that there are ways of comparing them to things

729
00:41:47,196 --> 00:41:49,436
Speaker 2: that have constant cost.

730
00:41:49,636 --> 00:41:54,116
Speaker 1: And just to be cool. CAPEX is capital expenditure. Op

731
00:41:54,396 --> 00:41:56,796
Speaker 1: X is operating expenditure right.

732
00:41:56,836 --> 00:42:00,236
Speaker 2: Exactly, Yes, upfront cost and running cost.

733
00:42:00,156 --> 00:42:02,796
Speaker 1: Basically, Huh, why is that such a big deal.

734
00:42:03,156 --> 00:42:06,596
Speaker 2: It's the one thing that frustrates me that people will

735
00:42:06,636 --> 00:42:09,476
Speaker 2: talk about cost, and they'll talk about solar power being free,

736
00:42:09,676 --> 00:42:13,596
Speaker 2: for example, and not think about the fact that this

737
00:42:13,796 --> 00:42:17,356
Speaker 2: is a problem, like if the soul of power is

738
00:42:17,476 --> 00:42:21,476
Speaker 2: not free, is merely paid upfront. And I think if

739
00:42:21,476 --> 00:42:25,676
Speaker 2: people want to understand energy systems are actually almost any system,

740
00:42:27,236 --> 00:42:31,996
Speaker 2: you need to have some understanding about comparing upfront costs

741
00:42:32,116 --> 00:42:33,156
Speaker 2: and later savings.

742
00:42:34,516 --> 00:42:37,036
Speaker 1: If you weren't writing about energy, what do you think

743
00:42:37,076 --> 00:42:37,596
Speaker 1: you'd be doing.

744
00:42:39,956 --> 00:42:43,516
Speaker 2: I hope I was writing about sustainable agriculture. I mean

745
00:42:43,596 --> 00:42:46,676
Speaker 2: what I always wanted was to work in some way

746
00:42:47,676 --> 00:42:53,636
Speaker 2: towards tackling climate change. Maybe I have trained as a

747
00:42:53,676 --> 00:42:56,676
Speaker 2: heat pump installer, and I would be going around putting

748
00:42:56,716 --> 00:42:59,116
Speaker 2: in heat pumps. Maybe I would work for a local

749
00:42:59,476 --> 00:43:03,076
Speaker 2: planning office processing planning applications for wind farms. That's also

750
00:43:03,116 --> 00:43:06,516
Speaker 2: a valid part of the energy transition. I think if

751
00:43:06,596 --> 00:43:10,036
Speaker 2: you want to have hope for the future. You need

752
00:43:10,556 --> 00:43:13,716
Speaker 2: a new feel climate anxiety, which I think a lot

753
00:43:13,756 --> 00:43:17,076
Speaker 2: of us do. It's really important to have something that

754
00:43:17,156 --> 00:43:18,596
Speaker 2: you can do every day where you think, if I

755
00:43:18,676 --> 00:43:21,196
Speaker 2: do a good job here, the world is better than

756
00:43:21,236 --> 00:43:23,036
Speaker 2: if I did a bad job or didn't show up

757
00:43:23,076 --> 00:43:23,356
Speaker 2: for work.

758
00:43:30,516 --> 00:43:34,036
Speaker 1: Jenny Chase is the author of Solar Power Finance Without

759
00:43:34,116 --> 00:43:36,916
Speaker 1: the Jargon. Next week on the show, I'll talk to

760
00:43:36,996 --> 00:43:39,196
Speaker 1: the founder of a company that's trying to take that

761
00:43:39,396 --> 00:43:41,996
Speaker 1: extra solar energy in the middle of the day and

762
00:43:42,196 --> 00:43:45,236
Speaker 1: use it to solve one of the biggest unsolved problems

763
00:43:45,316 --> 00:43:48,956
Speaker 1: in the energy transition, generating the heat we need to

764
00:43:49,036 --> 00:43:54,076
Speaker 1: make everything from steel to clothing. Today's show was produced

765
00:43:54,076 --> 00:43:57,276
Speaker 1: by Gabriel Hunter Chang. It was edited by Lyddy Jean

766
00:43:57,396 --> 00:44:01,036
Speaker 1: Kott and engineered by Sarah Bruguier. You can email us

767
00:44:01,116 --> 00:44:04,916
Speaker 1: at problem at Pushkin dot FM. I'm Jacob Goldstein, and

768
00:44:05,036 --> 00:44:07,396
Speaker 1: we'll be back next week with another episode of What's

769
00:44:07,396 --> 00:44:12,436
Speaker 1: Your Problem? With the introduce so physical st