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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

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Speaker 2: Well, it seems there are more questions than answers after

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Speaker 2: the Colorado Supreme courts unprecedented and stunning decision barring Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump from appearing on the state's March fifth primary ballot.

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Speaker 2: President Joe Biden refused to weigh in on the decision,

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Speaker 2: but he did say, this is frump an insurrectionist, sir, well.

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Speaker 3: I think you start certainly yourself. Evntent is sawt all

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Speaker 3: know whether the fourteenth none applies. I let to coordinate

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Speaker 3: that decision, but he's certainly supporting an insurrection, no question

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Speaker 3: about it, none zero.

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Speaker 2: And that was one thing that all the justice is

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Speaker 2: in the forur to three Colorado decision agreed on. There

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Speaker 2: was an insurrection and Trump incited it. Joining us to

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Speaker 2: weigh in on the many many legal issues surrounding the election,

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Speaker 2: and Trump is Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Arenberg,

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Speaker 2: thanks so much for being here.

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Speaker 4: Dave, thanks for having me. June I'm going to.

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Speaker 2: Start with the question that legal scholars have been debating

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Speaker 2: for months. The Colorado Supreme Court decided in europeanion the

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Speaker 2: Section three of the Fourteenth Amendment bar Trump from running

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Speaker 2: for president again.

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Speaker 4: Well, I read the one hundred and thirty three paid ruling

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Speaker 4: from the Colorado Supreme Court, and I thought they made

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Speaker 4: some very compelling arguments. It's hard to argue from a

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Speaker 4: substance standpoint that he did not engage in insurrection. Remember,

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Speaker 4: the standard under section three is not that he'd be

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Speaker 4: charged with insurrection, because no one's been charged with that.

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Speaker 4: It's whether he engaged in it, whether he gave comfort

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Speaker 4: or aid to the insurrection, and all the judges and justices,

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Speaker 4: as you correctly pointed out, said he did. Even the

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Speaker 4: judge at the trial court level, the district court judge

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Speaker 4: in Colorado who ruled for Trump, found that he engaged

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Speaker 4: in insurrection. But when it comes to the US Supreme Court,

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Speaker 4: I do think they're going to overturn this ruling. They

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Speaker 4: want to. The six to three concerned majority does not

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Speaker 4: want to bar Trump from the ballot, and I think

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Speaker 4: they're going to focus on procedure, perhaps say that due

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Speaker 4: process was violated that there needs to be some sort

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Speaker 4: of mechanism set up by Congress, who is empowered under

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Speaker 4: Section five to do so, to make sure that each

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Speaker 4: state doesn't go its own way, where individual secretaries of

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Speaker 4: state don't go rogue and target their political enemies. And

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Speaker 4: so I think they're going to punt on the substance

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Speaker 4: of issues. They're not going to touch insurrection, but instead

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Speaker 4: they're going to find a procedural way out of this.

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Speaker 2: I agree. I would fall off my chair if the

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Speaker 2: Supreme Court affirmed the Colorado Supreme Court. So now Trump

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Speaker 2: is going to appeal to the Supreme Court, and I've

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Speaker 2: lost track of how many times he's done that. I

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Speaker 2: take it from your answer that you think that the

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Speaker 2: court is going to take this place. They almost have

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Speaker 2: to take it.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, one hundred percent. And you know, like the

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Speaker 4: District Court gave the Supreme Court a way out if

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Speaker 4: they want to say that Section three doesn't apply to

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Speaker 4: the president. There's some dispute over that, although I don't

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Speaker 4: agree with it, because it would mean that the framers

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Speaker 4: of the Fourteenth Amendment intended to bar traders and insurrectionists

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Speaker 4: from lower level government offices, but not the top office,

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Speaker 4: so like, there are ways if the court wants to

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Speaker 4: get out of this. But I think the best argument

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Speaker 4: for Trump's side would be that his due process rights

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Speaker 4: were violated because the Congress, based on Section five, needs

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Speaker 4: to establish rules. They have not done so, and if

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Speaker 4: you allow each individual state to do so, it would

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Speaker 4: create mass chaos.

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Speaker 2: And that was one of the dissents went off on that.

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Speaker 2: They gave a lot of ammunition, I guess to Trump

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Speaker 2: to appeal this decision at the same time that Trump

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Speaker 2: will be urging the Supreme Court to take up this

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Speaker 2: Colorado case fast. He's asking them to slow down on

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Speaker 2: the federal election interference case and turn down Special Counsel

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Speaker 2: Jack Smith's request for them to decide the presidential immunity

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Speaker 2: question right away. What do you think they should do here?

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Speaker 4: I think that the Supreme Court should expedite the matter.

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Speaker 4: They know how serious this is, and they know that

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Speaker 4: Trump's legal strategy has always been to delay matters, and

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Speaker 4: this case was always going to get to the Supreme

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Speaker 4: Court anyway, So why not get involved now? And so

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Speaker 4: I think they will. But Trump doesn't mean like he

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Speaker 4: reveals his code. He reveals in his pleadings by saying, hey,

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Speaker 4: don't expedite this. In fact, even on the gag order,

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Speaker 4: he wanted that slowed down. He just wants to push

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Speaker 4: us past the twenty twenty four election so that he

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Speaker 4: could become president again, then order his attorney general to

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Speaker 4: drop everything. But Jacksmith's onto him. Jack Smith is a

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Speaker 4: step ahead even when it comes to the case in

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Speaker 4: front of Judge Chuckin in Washington, d C. Jack Smith

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Speaker 4: wants to provide Trump with discovery the evidence and materials

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Speaker 4: they have to move the case along, even while that

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Speaker 4: case is stayed, which is paused pending the Supreme Court's review,

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Speaker 4: and Trump saying no, I don't want this information. I

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Speaker 4: don't want this evidence. I want this to be as

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Speaker 4: slow a process as possible. So, yeah, we all know

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Speaker 4: what this is about, and so does the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 5: Yeah we do.

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Speaker 2: I mean delay, delayed, delay, And right now you said,

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Speaker 2: as you mentioned, it's on pause. The judges put it

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Speaker 2: on pause. But she says she hasn't given up the

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Speaker 2: dates yet. She still has those dates. But does it

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Speaker 2: look less and less like the March fifth date is doable.

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Speaker 4: It's unlikely that it goes in the first week of March.

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Speaker 4: I think though, if it does get postponed, and I

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Speaker 4: think it will, it won't get postponed too much. I

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Speaker 4: think maybe a month, six weeks, and it could push

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Speaker 4: up against the May trial in the Southern District of

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Speaker 4: Florida from Judge Cannon. But you know what, that trial

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Speaker 4: ain't going before the election. So I think the only

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Speaker 4: criminal trial that I really believe we'll go to trial

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Speaker 4: before the election against Trump will be the Washington d c. Case,

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Speaker 4: because that case was built for speed. The other possibility

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Speaker 4: is the New York trial, which is the weakest of

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Speaker 4: the four, the one involving the Stormy Daniels hush money payments.

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Speaker 4: That could also go to trial before the election. But

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Speaker 4: I don't think there's a chance at the other two,

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Speaker 4: the one in Fulton County and the one in front

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Speaker 4: of Judge Cannon in the Southern District of Florida, go

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Speaker 4: anytime soon.

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Speaker 2: Is Judge Cannon still sort of pretending that that trial

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Speaker 2: is going to take place before the election.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, she said that it's still on scheduled, but she's

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Speaker 4: gonna revisit the deadlines as it gets closer. You know,

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Speaker 4: that really hurts the whole cause of justice, because, like

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Speaker 4: we all know that case is going to be moved,

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Speaker 4: and as long as you continue to put it on

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Speaker 4: the calendar in May, it prevents other cases from being

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Speaker 4: scheduled at that time. We all know it's not gonna

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Speaker 4: happen in May, so move it now instead of waiting

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Speaker 4: until the last minute. But Judge Chuck and eight messing around,

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Speaker 4: is determined to have this trial heard well before the election,

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Speaker 4: and so is Jack Smith. After all, that's why Jack

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Speaker 4: Smith only pursued four counts against Donald Trump. He didn't

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Speaker 4: pursue insurrection because he knew it would bog it down.

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Speaker 4: He also had unindicted co conspirators which were not added

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Speaker 4: to this case. That case in DC is only against

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump because that case is built for speed.

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Speaker 2: You know, the Supreme Court has been under so much

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Speaker 2: external pressure, so many scandals, ethical lapses, contentious decisions, and

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Speaker 2: yet I was shocked that they decided to take the

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Speaker 2: January sixth case that his implications for the obstruction charges

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Speaker 2: against Trump. I mean, don't they have enough on their

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Speaker 2: plate without getting involved in that case.

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Speaker 4: I was surprised by that too. To mine nolge, only

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Speaker 4: one judge ruled that the obstruction of an official proceeding

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Speaker 4: did not apply to this case, and every other caurll

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Speaker 4: is ruled the other way that, of course it applies.

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Speaker 4: You don't need documents to be involved. You just have

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Speaker 4: to obstruct an official proceeding. It is what it says

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Speaker 4: it is. So I was surprised if Supreme Court took

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Speaker 4: it up. And yes, it's a great point in June,

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Speaker 4: I got all these other matters. Why bog it down?

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Speaker 4: Because I think they're going to rule the way we

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Speaker 4: expect on the rule that yeah, it's game on, you

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Speaker 4: can use that statute. And if they don't rule that way,

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Speaker 4: then it really does cripple all the prosecutions, not just

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Speaker 4: against Trump, but against all the other j six defendants.

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Speaker 2: So the court, with all these cases having to do

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Speaker 2: with the election and more to come, most likely it's

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Speaker 2: going to have it's going to be put in the

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Speaker 2: center of the twenty twenty four presidential election in a

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Speaker 2: way that echoes Bush vy Gore, a still controversial case

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Speaker 2: from your state twenty three years ago. Or is this

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Speaker 2: even worse.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, there's such a low estimation these days

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Speaker 4: of the US Supreme Court that remember, after bushby Gore

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Speaker 4: was decided, it was a five to four ruling, and

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Speaker 4: the justices went along political lines, and the public accepted it.

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Speaker 4: Al Gore accepted it. Do you think the same would

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Speaker 4: happen now? Not a chance. Trump is not going to

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Speaker 4: accept if it goes against the miss supporters won't accept it,

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Speaker 4: and people on the other side of the aisle, the

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Speaker 4: Democratic side, already have such a low estimation of the

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Speaker 4: Supreme Court, they'll roll their eyes and stay of course,

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Speaker 4: like why is Clarence Thomas even part of the deliberations

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Speaker 4: when his wife was involved with January sixth? And it

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Speaker 4: is kind of laughable when I see people like Lauren

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Speaker 4: bober decrine the Colorado Supreme Court as activist judges. You

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Speaker 4: know what, an activist judges, it's one to judge rules

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Speaker 4: against you because Conservatives and Republicans they love activist judges

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Speaker 4: when their rule on their side, like last year's Dobbs

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Speaker 4: opinion overruling a fifty year president of Roe versus Wade.

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Speaker 4: So when you claim activist judges, that's just hollow arguments

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Speaker 4: for your own political echo chamber.

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Speaker 2: The same with textualism, I think, because you know the

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Speaker 2: Conservatives say with textualism, you come to the same decision well,

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Speaker 2: they don't come to the same decision. They're split. The

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Speaker 2: textualists are split sometimes on the court. So, you know it,

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Speaker 2: it really comes down to politics a lot, and it's

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Speaker 2: a shame. But I think people see the Supreme Court

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Speaker 2: as political now.

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Speaker 4: Well, and I understand why. You know, the public is smart.

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Speaker 4: Chief Justice Roberts tears his hair out because he cannot

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Speaker 4: understand why people don't respect the Supreme Court as an

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Speaker 4: a political institution. But then when you have justices who

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Speaker 4: take money and gifts from people who have interests in

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Speaker 4: front of the court and don't report it, you know,

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Speaker 4: when they're above the law literally where they create their

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Speaker 4: own rules and they decide whether they violate their own rules.

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Speaker 4: That doesn't seem like an institution that we should all,

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Speaker 4: you know, be in awe of. That sounds like a

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Speaker 4: political institution. And so I think there needs to be

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Speaker 4: real reform on the court. And if Justice Roberts, Chief

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Speaker 4: Justice Roberts wants to decry the act that the public

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Speaker 4: doesn't approve of the Supreme Court, well look in the mirror,

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Speaker 4: because he could do things to change that.

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Speaker 2: Speaking of changing, and you referred to Justice Clarence Thomas,

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Speaker 2: there are calls for him to recuse himself from any

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Speaker 2: cases having to do with Donald Trump, and you know

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Speaker 2: the presidency. He hasn't recused himself very much in the past.

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Speaker 2: And we just saw that Justice Alito, despite the pressure

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Speaker 2: for him to recuse himself in a case where the

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Speaker 2: attorneys in a major tax case did a fluff piece

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Speaker 2: in the Wall Street Journal editorial for him supporting him,

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Speaker 2: he didn't recuse himself. And that you have any what

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Speaker 2: do you think is there any chance that Thomas will

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Speaker 2: recuse himself?

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Speaker 4: Not a chance. You can't shameless, shameless. These guys have

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Speaker 4: lifetime appointments. So why why would he give all that up?

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Speaker 4: What to please the editorial boards, to please the progressives

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Speaker 4: who never support him, to be in with He's all in.

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Speaker 4: He and his wife are all in. They're part of

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Speaker 4: a political movement. And I'm sorry he's a judge, but

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Speaker 4: you know the you know which way is going to rule,

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Speaker 4: and he should be recusing himself. And it's not a

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Speaker 4: good look for the Supreme Court. Same thing for Alito.

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Speaker 4: And I would say the same thing if it happened

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Speaker 4: with members on the left of the court. But you know,

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Speaker 4: there's a crisis of confidence with the US Supreme Court,

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Speaker 4: and they continue to thumbd er nose at the public,

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Speaker 4: and it really looks like a case elitism, a privilege

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Speaker 4: that they don't have to listen to what the public says.

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Speaker 4: They've got their black robes. We all have to stand

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Speaker 4: up when they walk in the room, and they can't

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Speaker 4: be fired, you know.

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Speaker 2: Just going back for a moment too, the issue of

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Speaker 2: presidential immunity. And at times it might be surprising, but

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Speaker 2: at times this court has turned Donald Trump away in

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Speaker 2: the election cases and in other cases that he's tried

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Speaker 2: to push them to take on presidential immunity. I mean,

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Speaker 2: that's an issue that if they decide, it's going to

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Speaker 2: be landmark and it's going to stand not only for

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, but for Joe Biden every other president that comes.

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Speaker 2: How do you think they're going to rule on that.

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Speaker 4: I think that we will. They will reject presidential community

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Speaker 4: because otherwise we don't have a president. We have a king.

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Speaker 4: I mean, that's why we left the crown was because

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Speaker 4: we didn't want to have a king. And so if

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Speaker 4: it means that you can't indict a sitting president and

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Speaker 4: you can't indict a former president for anything he or

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Speaker 4: she did while they were president. Then you know, then

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Speaker 4: this not a president, and it sends a very damaging

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Speaker 4: precedent because then what happens is if Joe Biden decides

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Speaker 4: that he does not want to abide by the election

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Speaker 4: results and cancels the election and locks up Donald Trump well,

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Speaker 4: presidential community. So be careful what you wish for. It's

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Speaker 4: not so funny what happens on the other side of

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Speaker 4: the aisle, is it.

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Speaker 2: You know, we'll see what happens when these cases come down.

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Speaker 2: What other well, we're running out of time, but I

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Speaker 2: just want to get your take on the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 2: Well in other cases too. They're taking all these big cases,

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Speaker 2: the abortion pill case, the guns cases, and it's all

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Speaker 2: going to come down in June when people are campaigning

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Speaker 2: for president and other offices. So they're looking for trouble.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I think it's a boon for the Democrats because

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Speaker 4: the Dobbs apision excuse me, opinion has been a huge

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Speaker 4: benefit for Democrats at the polls. The Supreme Court doesn't

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Speaker 4: get the memo from Mitch McConnell to stay quiet before

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Speaker 4: an election. They're going to come out and do their stuff,

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Speaker 4: undoing years of precedent and it's going to be very unpopular.

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Speaker 4: So that is a wildcard we have not considered when

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Speaker 4: it comes to the twenty twenty four elections. That's something

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Speaker 4: the polls are not indicating yet.

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Speaker 2: Thanks so much for being here, Dave, it was a pleasure.

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Speaker 2: That's Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Ahrenberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 1: tune in aut Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 6: And the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: I'm June Grosso sitting in for Joe Matthew Today. A

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Speaker 2: new poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center

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Speaker 2: at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics finds that former

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Speaker 2: United Nations Ambassador NICKI Haley has doubled her support from

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Speaker 2: fifteen percent in the survey Center's last poll in September.

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Speaker 2: She's now at thirty percent with just over a month

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Speaker 2: before the First in the Nation primary. My Politics Panel

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Speaker 2: today is Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis and Democratic strategist

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Speaker 2: Al Matterl. How much does this have to do with

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Speaker 2: the New Hampshire Governor Chris Sanunu endorsing Haley over his

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Speaker 2: supposed good friend Chris Christy.

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Speaker 7: I think it certainly helps this new new name is

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Speaker 7: gold in New Hampshire. But I would also note that

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Speaker 7: New Hampshire has a particularly unique electorate. Their primary has

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Speaker 7: allows crossover voting. I remember when I was canvassing there

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Speaker 7: in twenty sixteen for then Secretary Clinton. I would encounter

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Speaker 7: voters who told me they couldn't decide between her and

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Speaker 7: John Kasick, and I would encounter voters who told me

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Speaker 7: they couldn't decide between Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. So

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Speaker 7: I think that it's a state uniquely suited for someone

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Speaker 7: with her message, and I wouldn't be surprised if she

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Speaker 7: pulls the upset.

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Speaker 6: Rick.

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Speaker 2: What is she doing?

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Speaker 8: Right?

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Speaker 9: You know, I've had a lot of experience in New

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Speaker 9: Hampshire and you know, sort of the god of New

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Speaker 9: Hampshire Republican primary politics as John McCain, And she's doing

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Speaker 9: a lot of what he used to do, which is

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Speaker 9: go into town halls, you know, meeting with voters in

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Speaker 9: those town halls, answering their questions, not giving sort of

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Speaker 9: set answers, but really having a dialogue. As Al pointed out,

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Speaker 9: New Hampshire voters are unique. They are used to being

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Speaker 9: able to interact with candidates, and when they're denied that opportunity,

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Speaker 9: you know, they punish you. And there's this great line

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Speaker 9: that you know, John McCain was going to see some

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Speaker 9: voters and he said, Hi, I'm John McCain. I'm run

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Speaker 9: for president and i'd love to have your support. And

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Speaker 9: one of them said to him, yeah, well, i've only

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Speaker 9: met you twice, so you know, hang out and I'll

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Speaker 9: consider it maybe after the third or fourth meeting. And

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Speaker 9: they really do believe that they expect you to come

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Speaker 9: see them. And she's done that much more so than

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Speaker 9: other candidates who have kind of placed their bets like

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Speaker 9: Ronda Santis in Iowa and hasn't spent the time doing

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Speaker 9: on the ground work. I would say the difference here

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Speaker 9: is she has connected with New Hampshire voters in a

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Speaker 9: way that Chris Christy hasn't. He devoted himself to New

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Speaker 9: Hampshire and and and you know, just hasn't connected the

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Speaker 9: way she has, and so kudos to her. I think

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Speaker 9: that she's got a lot of wind at her back.

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Speaker 9: It'll be very interesting to see how this turns out,

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Speaker 9: because right now I would say it's probably you'd have

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Speaker 9: to consider it a dead heat because she has, as

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Speaker 9: this poll indicates, been moving up while Donald Trump is

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Speaker 9: literally where he was a year ago when this polling

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Speaker 9: took place. And so her ability to add voters between

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Speaker 9: now and the primary on the twenty third of January

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Speaker 9: is already proven. Can she get enough between now and

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Speaker 9: then to actually win?

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Speaker 2: So, Trump still maintains a significant lead with forty four percent.

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Speaker 2: Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's at twelve percent. Florida

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Speaker 2: Governor Ron Dessantis support all but disappeared. He's now at

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Speaker 2: six percent. Al do you agree with what Rick was

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Speaker 2: talking about that Haley can make up the really significant

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Speaker 2: lead of Donald Trump.

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Speaker 10: I do.

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Speaker 7: And look, Trump is very likely to win Iowa, not

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Speaker 7: sure by how much, but he's very likely to win.

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Speaker 7: New Hampshire has a history of saying hold on, what

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Speaker 7: about us and saying we have a different opinion and

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Speaker 7: upsetting the race in a number of historically significant times.

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Speaker 7: I remember Hillary was out of it in eight all

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Speaker 7: of a sudden, she stunned the world and beat Obama

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Speaker 7: and then it became a race all the way to

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Speaker 7: the convention. Practically, so I if I was a betting person,

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Speaker 7: I would say it's going to be very tight and

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Speaker 7: that she very well might win. And by the way,

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Speaker 7: if she wins by more than a few points, that'll

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Speaker 7: cause some consternation in the Trump camp. But he's still

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Speaker 7: the prohibitive favorite. The one thing I would say about

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Speaker 7: her that's really interesting from a macro perspective is if

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Speaker 7: she were somehow able to win the nomination, that would

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Speaker 7: be probably the death knell for Trump politically. If he

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Speaker 7: were to be the nominee and lose to Biden, there's

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Speaker 7: really nothing that stops him from just sticking around again.

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Speaker 7: And you know, back to the earlier discussion with your

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Speaker 7: legal expert about keeping him off the ballot. The best

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Speaker 7: way to end Trump's influence it's over the Republican Party

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Speaker 7: and to a degree our country, is to beat him

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Speaker 7: at the ballot box and really ideally to beat him

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Speaker 7: in the Republican primary. Not sure if it's possible, but

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Speaker 7: if anyone can do it, it's her.

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Speaker 2: Rick, I mean beat Donald Trump, and he's lost the

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Speaker 2: presidential election. He you know, during the mid terms, his

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Speaker 2: candidate's lost, and yet he's still he still has a

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Speaker 2: commanding lead against his Republican rivals. I mean, would another

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Speaker 2: loss even make a difference. He just doesn't seem to

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Speaker 2: go away.

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Speaker 10: Yeah.

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Speaker 9: Look, I mean we've talked about it a lot, but

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Speaker 9: like he's got this core support let's call it, anywhere

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Speaker 9: from thirty to forty five percent within the party, right,

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Speaker 9: it's not a majority, it's within the party, is his core,

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Speaker 9: and he uses that to better advantage than any politician

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Speaker 9: I've ever seen, to intimidate senior members of the Republican Party,

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Speaker 9: to intimidate the media, to intimidate you know, the legal say.

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Speaker 9: And he's not a majority candidate. He can't win a

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Speaker 9: majority of the country. He hasn't proven he can get

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Speaker 9: anywhere near that in a general election, and he's never

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Speaker 9: won a majority of a primary other than in twenty

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Speaker 9: twenty when it didn't matter. And so you know, he's

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Speaker 9: a he's a minority candidate in the sense that he

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Speaker 9: is successful without ever getting close to fifty percent. And

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Speaker 9: I agree, I think the best way to dispatch him

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Speaker 9: from actively exerting his influence in the Republican Party is

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Speaker 9: for someone to beat him in the primary straight up,

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Speaker 9: I would say my concern about him is always he'll

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Speaker 9: never declare defeat, even in a primary. He'll claim it's stolen.

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Speaker 9: He'll claim he's the nominee of the party, I mean

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Speaker 9: like it's and if he does become the nominee, regardless

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Speaker 9: of the outcome of the election in November of twenty

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Speaker 9: twenty four, he will also claim that he's the winner.

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Speaker 9: And so we we have our work cut out in

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Speaker 9: this country to try and create stable democratic institutions to

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Speaker 9: handle a guy like him.

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Speaker 2: And no matter what he says, no matter how frightening

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Speaker 2: it may be. For example, he's commented that he would

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Speaker 2: be on day one a dictator. In that Quinnipiac poll,

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Speaker 2: fifty three percent of voters are concerned with that comment,

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Speaker 2: but forty four percent aren't, and eighty four percent of

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Speaker 2: Republicans say they aren't worried about that remark. So it

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Speaker 2: seems like it doesn't even matter what he says at

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Speaker 2: this point, or how frightening that may be. But more

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Speaker 2: to come, as there always is. Thank you so much,

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Speaker 2: both of you that's politics contributor for Bloomberg, Rick Davis

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Speaker 2: and Democratic strategists Al Mater.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 11: Followed by the sound of almost deafening silence here in

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Speaker 11: Washington because everybody's gone home. It's just me, Kaylee Lynes

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Speaker 11: and Mike Dorning, who helps Lee Bloomberg's congressional coverage that

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Speaker 11: seemed to be in the building or in the city

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Speaker 11: today because Congress isn't here, Mike. They've wrapped up twenty.

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Speaker 5: Twenty three phone home for a nice three week holiday.

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Speaker 11: They got on their planes. They're taking the holiday break.

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Speaker 11: But when they come back, they're going to have a

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Speaker 11: lot to deal with because they didn't wrap up a

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Speaker 11: lot of business before its time, before they got out

436
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Speaker 11: of town. So let's talk about that timeline.

437
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 9: They come back.

438
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,640
Speaker 5: What January eighth, January eighth and ninth.

439
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 11: And then January nineteenth, parts of the government could shut

440
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 11: down if they haven't figured out appropriations. How hard is

441
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 11: it going to be to get things done in that

442
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 11: narrow a window.

443
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:47,719
Speaker 5: Pretty hard, and there's wide disagreements between the House and

444
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 5: the Senate. The House couldn't even agree among Republicans on

445
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 5: what they wanted to do on a lot of these things,

446
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 5: much less adding in Senates and Democrats in the White House.

447
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 5: So it's going to be pretty hard to come to

448
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 5: an agreement before this shutdown deadline. You have to figure

449
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 5: the odds of parts of the government shutting down then

450
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 5: are very high.

451
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 11: So it's no work going to get done between now

452
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 11: and then. I know everybody goes home to the districts

453
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 11: for a holiday, but there were people who were here

454
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 11: actively negotiating, at least on the Senate side with the

455
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 11: White House, trying to get something done with border security

456
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 11: and Ukraine A. Does any of that work continue or

457
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 11: they just pause everything.

458
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 5: We'll turn to it later. They say, quote unquote that

459
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 5: they're going to work around the clock the whole time,

460
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 5: which is, of course, you know, not really true. But

461
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 5: some work will get done on that. There is a

462
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 5: smaller negotiating group of about three senators who will be

463
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 5: working and consulting, and they'll be in touch with the

464
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 5: White House. But there probably won't be a lot done

465
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 5: until you have the forcing mechanism of them coming back

466
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 5: into session. Now, as you're pointing out, that's just one

467
00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 5: slice of what needs to be done soon, we're just

468
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 5: looking that they're just dealing with the Ukraine aid and

469
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 5: the border security. What they've got to get done by

470
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 5: the nineteenth is funding a whole segment of government, and

471
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 5: there's a big risk that even the Ukraine and the

472
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 5: border raid stuff will slip into that bigger morass that

473
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 5: will then get even bigger in early February when the

474
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 5: rest of the government needs to be funded. So it's

475
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 5: quite possible all of this could be kicking around a while.

476
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 5: The optimistic view would be maybe they can at least

477
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 5: get the Ukraine and border security piece done before everything

478
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,959
Speaker 5: falls apart. It's a possibility, but it's not necessarily a

479
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 5: great one.

480
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 11: Okay, maybe possible, but low probability. When we're reflecting on

481
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 11: the year that was in twenty twenty three, the fact

482
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 11: that we are still fighting over top line appropriations figures

483
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 11: when this was the fight we were having back during the

484
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 11: debt stealing drama. Yet when they agreed on top line

485
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 11: figures and we're still litigating the top line figures, are

486
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 11: we just in for more of this in twenty twenty four? Mike,

487
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 11: you make a deal and then don't you don't stick

488
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 11: to it? If you can make the deal.

489
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:13,360
Speaker 5: At all, well, I think that there's a good chance

490
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 5: that there will be a big conflict in you know,

491
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 5: January and early February, and that they will ultimately perhaps

492
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 5: with a government shutdown that might possibly go on a while,

493
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 5: have a resolution to that at least until September thirtieth,

494
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 5: because Speaker Johnson has said, we're not doing any more

495
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 5: temporary stopgap measures like we did at the end of

496
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 5: at the end of September and then again in November.

497
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 5: And there's a logic to having your conflict now. If

498
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 5: you need to shut down the government, you're doing it

499
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,720
Speaker 5: early in the year. Maybe Americans will have forgotten about

500
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 5: it by the time they go, you know, vote in November,

501
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 5: and you know, why do another extension if you're not

502
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 5: going to make any more progress at least this way,

503
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 5: you've gotten past acting like Scrooge and sending the government

504
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 5: workers and the soldiers home without pay for Christmas. Now

505
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 5: you're at least having the shutdown outside the holiday season,

506
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 5: all right.

507
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 11: Well, I guess they're going to enjoy their holiday season

508
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 11: while they can before things get real difficult a couple

509
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 11: of weeks here. Mike Dorning, of course, thank you so

510
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 11: much for joining us. He helps lead our congressional coverage

511
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 11: here at Bloomberg. But we want to get an inside

512
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 11: look now from someone who sits in the House of Representatives,

513
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 11: even if he's not physically in the Capitol building right now.

514
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 11: Congressman John Garrimendi, I'm pleased to say, is joining us.

515
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 11: He is a Democrat from California. Congressman, thank you very

516
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 11: much for being with us. When you return in January.

517
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 11: Is there just going to be so little time that

518
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 11: the only thing really to do is hold your nose

519
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 11: and swallow down whatever compromise can be come up with.

520
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 10: Well, let's just be very clear here. This last year,

521
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 10: the twenty twenty three year, was the least productive Congress

522
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 10: perhaps in the last century. Twenty three bills, about half

523
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 10: of them, are naming post offices somewhere across the United States.

524
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 10: The work of the government simply is not happening. The

525
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 10: Chaos Caucus, otherwise known as the Congressional Republicans, are simply

526
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 10: unable to function. They are so badly split, with a

527
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 10: mega extremist on one side, a few moderates still left

528
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 10: in the moderate side of it, and the rest of

529
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 10: them all lurking to their primary and wondering if they

530
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 10: step out of line and make Trump unhappy in some way,

531
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 10: then they will get primaried. It's a very very serious

532
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 10: problem when the Congress simply cannot function. Mike Johnson, the

533
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 10: new Speaker, is totally incapable of leading because he knows

534
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 10: that at any moment, one member of his caucus could

535
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 10: put his can leadership at risk and call for a

536
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 10: vote that is to vacate the share, and so we're

537
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 10: really stuck. Also keep in mind that what has been done,

538
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 10: that is the funding of government through the first half

539
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 10: through the first year, has been done principally by the Democrats.

540
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 10: We put up two thirds of the votes, we put

541
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 10: up our two hundred or so, and then the Republicans

542
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 10: add on, and so it's just a terrible situation, and frankly,

543
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 10: it is not going to get better. The margin for

544
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 10: the Republicans has actually declined. We see further members of

545
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 10: the Republican caucus retiring midyear, Kevin McCarthy being Kevin McCarthy.

546
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 11: George Santos, of course is out to your point, Congressman, though,

547
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 11: on Democrats having provided the majority of the votes for

548
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 11: some of the most crucial must pass bills this year,

549
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 11: when it comes to a vote that you could be

550
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 11: facing potentially early on in twenty twenty four on the

551
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 11: supple mental something being negotiated between the White House and

552
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 11: primarily the Senate right now Ukraineate an exchange for border

553
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 11: security measures, potentially changes to asylum and parole rules. What

554
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 11: are Democrats going to be able to tolerate in those negotiations?

555
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 10: There is a compromise available in that supplemental bill. There's

556
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 10: almost three billion dollars for border security, hiring border patrol agents,

557
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 10: court and on and on to deal with the crisis.

558
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 10: There are within the Republican proposal. My analysis is there

559
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 10: are some things in the Republican proposal that could be

560
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 10: part of a deal, although probably need to be modified

561
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 10: in some way, but nonetheless a deal could be had.

562
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 10: But on the House side there are no negotiations at all.

563
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 10: Speaker Johnson has not put forward anybody in his caucus

564
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 10: to negotiate, but we're willing to do so. We know

565
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 10: that we can get it done. The problem for Ukraine

566
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 10: is absolutely horrible. They will be out of money the

567
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 10: first of January. They will not be able to pay

568
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 10: for their first responders, the medical services, the ambulances, and

569
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 10: the military equipment that they need to continue to defend

570
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:25,479
Speaker 10: themselves and to push back Russia is not going to

571
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 10: be available. They're going to have to limit their munitions,

572
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 10: They're going to have to be able to just hang on.

573
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 10: The United States Congress is absolutely derelict in providing the

574
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:43,719
Speaker 10: support that is essential for Ukraine. Keep in mind that

575
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 10: Ukraine is fighting on behalf of NATO. We are all

576
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 10: NATAL allies protected by Ukraine. It's the Ukrainians that are dying.

577
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 10: It's the men and women and children in the cities

578
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 10: that are being bombed by Russia. And what is the Congress?

579
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 10: What are the Republican leadership doing? Nothing? Not at all.

580
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 10: A compromise is available, but we're seeing total total chaos

581
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 10: in the leadership of the House on the Republican side.

582
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 10: We stand ready, the Democrats stand ready to put together

583
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 10: a compromise. The Senate will see if they could do it.

584
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 10: If they can, then perhaps we'll get it done. That's

585
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 10: just one of the pieces the funding the government will

586
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 10: half of the government will not be funded on January nineteenth,

587
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 10: There'll be no man.

588
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 11: That deadline is quickly quickly approaching. Yeah, that deadline is

589
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 11: not far away, Congressman. Of course, when we think about

590
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 11: the supplemental in particular, though, it's not just Ukrainey that's

591
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 11: in question wrapped up here, it's Israel as well. And

592
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 11: I just wonder if the Israel AID and just the

593
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 11: administration support for Israel is also going to be harder

594
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 11: to support going forward when we're looking now at Palestinian

595
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 11: casualties that authority in Gaza say have breached over twenty thousand.

596
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 10: The Gaza situation is horrible, It's inhumane, and is this horrible.

597
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 10: My view of this is that Israel absolutely has to

598
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 10: stop aerial bombardment. Most of the casualties are a direct

599
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 10: result of aerial bombardment. Most of those bombs are American bombs,

600
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 10: and it has to stop. About fifty to forty percent

601
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 10: of those bombs are not guided. They simply fall out

602
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 10: of the sky and hit something. What they're hitting are

603
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 10: the civilians, and it has to stop. Israel has every

604
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 10: right to continue to pursue its goal of eradicating hamas,

605
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 10: and they should do so, but they absolutely must do

606
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 10: it in a different manner. They cannot continue to do this.

607
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 10: Their support is rapidly eroding around the world, and I

608
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 10: would dare say it is also in Congress now. Humanitarian

609
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 10: aid is also in THELA and that is essential. We're

610
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 10: seeing the need not only in Gaza, but also in

611
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 10: other parts of the world, Ukraine specifically, and that's another

612
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,359
Speaker 10: piece of this puzzle. Now we have work to do,

613
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:17,839
Speaker 10: we can do it, we must do it, we have

614
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 10: no choice. And the supplemental Ukraine Israel border as well

615
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 10: as the humanitarian support is necessary. Also, we need to

616
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 10: understand that we have to continue to fund the government.

617
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 10: Reported from the Congress suggested that a CR is not

618
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 10: going to happen. Well, if a CR doesn't happen and

619
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 10: the appropriations don't happen, then government will shut down and

620
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:53,240
Speaker 10: it will have a horrendous effect on America, not only

621
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 10: on the operations of everything from the air traffic control

622
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 10: systems to highways other essential programs. The military will probably

623
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 10: continue to be paid, but the police will not. So

624
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 10: it's a terrible problem if we don't continue to fund

625
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:16,359
Speaker 10: the government and Finally, the status of America in the

626
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 10: world has already been seriously jeopardized by the unwillingness and

627
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 10: the inability of the Republican led Congress to operate. Right now,

628
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:30,760
Speaker 10: Putin is having a very very good Christmas holiday because

629
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 10: he is simply laughing at America and he's telling the

630
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:38,280
Speaker 10: world you do not want America as your ally, because

631
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 10: they will back away. They will leave you in the

632
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:46,800
Speaker 10: field without guns, without ammunition, and without the supplies you need.

633
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 10: Putin's having a very very good Christmas. Ukraine is not,

634
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 10: and America is suffering as a result of the inability

635
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 10: of the Republican led Congress to get the job done.

636
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,880
Speaker 11: So there's a lot to unpack in that answer there, Congressman,

637
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 11: I want to combine a few issues that you mentioned here.

638
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,720
Speaker 11: You talked about America and it's standing in the world,

639
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 11: the US military, whether or not troops will continue to

640
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,800
Speaker 11: be paid, and we were originally talking about the conflict

641
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:18,359
Speaker 11: between Israel and Hamas. There's one thing that kind of

642
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 11: bridges a lot of this, and that is what we're

643
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 11: seeing happening in the Red Sea right now. Obviously, there

644
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 11: is a lot of naval vessels in that region, the

645
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 11: US already has been actively engaged in defensive measures shooting

646
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 11: down hoothy drones as they are attempting to strike merchant

647
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 11: vessels bound for Israel, or perhaps it has become a

648
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:39,959
Speaker 11: bit more indiscriminate. Now, how concerned should we be by

649
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 11: what's happening in the Red Sea? And I ask you

650
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 11: this knowing you serve on the Armed Services Committee and

651
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 11: the Transportation Committee, the Subcommittee on Maritime Transport in particular.

652
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 10: Well, it is a very very serious international problem, but

653
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 10: it is not a new problem. We've seen periodically the

654
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:02,319
Speaker 10: interruption of shipping, both in the Red Sea years ago

655
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 10: it was the pirates taking over ships. Obviously problems in

656
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 10: the Gulf also, So this is not new. America has

657
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 10: always been there, and we are there today. We're calling

658
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,240
Speaker 10: on allies, other countries, some of whom are NATO, others

659
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 10: are not NATO countries, to join with US in providing

660
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 10: the necessary naval support to make it clear to the

661
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 10: Houthis and more importantly to Iran that they cannot interrupt

662
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 10: the international flow of shipping, not only oil and gas,

663
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:42,880
Speaker 10: but also all kinds of goods that are shipped through

664
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 10: the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. It's important that

665
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 10: the United States does this. We do this all the time.

666
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 10: We have been the leader since the Siuez Canal crisis

667
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 10: way back in the sixties. We've been the leader in

668
00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 10: the Middle East, providing the stability and the support for

669
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 10: the open seas. Will continue to do that. Now there

670
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 10: is a problem here. It takes us back to the

671
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 10: funding of government. We are using very expensive missiles, a

672
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 10: couple million dollars a missile to shoot down two thousand

673
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 10: dollars drones. It's not a good situation those missiles. So

674
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 10: if I could replace, yes, go ahead.

675
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 11: Well, would it be more strategically optimal for the US

676
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 11: to instead use its ammunition to just go after the

677
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 11: Hoothies directly direct strikes where they are or is that

678
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 11: too escalatory?

679
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 10: Well, there's certainly excavatory. But we might want to talk

680
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 10: to the Saudi Arabias who attempted to do that for

681
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 10: ten for nine years unsuccessfully. The Saudis used the American

682
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 10: equipment of all kinds to try to do precisely, that is,

683
00:38:56,239 --> 00:39:01,959
Speaker 10: to stop the Hooties and to remove their military capability.

684
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 10: They failed. Now would we be more successful? Probably not.

685
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:10,840
Speaker 10: What we need to do here is to be there

686
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 10: to do what we can do, and it's it's difficult

687
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 10: because of the symmetry between the cost of the missiles

688
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 10: that we're using to defend and the drones that are

689
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:25,320
Speaker 10: being used by the Houthis. The real issue here is Iran.

690
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 10: All of this goes back to Iran, and clearly the

691
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 10: Houthis are supported by Iran. Those missiles are Iranian missiles,

692
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 10: the drones are Iranian drones, and the issue of Iran

693
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:44,840
Speaker 10: remains front and center in most of the issues. Certainly

694
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 10: the Hamas, that's Iran. Further north in the Lebanon area,

695
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:55,359
Speaker 10: that's Iran. Syria, that's Iran. The current attacks that are

696
00:39:55,360 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 10: going on against the American military in Iraq. So we

697
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 10: must recognize and we do that Iran is the central

698
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 10: cause of most of the disruption that occurs in this region.

699
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:12,760
Speaker 10: How to deal with Iran.

700
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:19,280
Speaker 12: We were on a path during the pre Trump administration,

701
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:23,840
Speaker 12: the Obama administration to rein in Iran on their nuclear

702
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 12: and other activities. Unfortunately Trump terminated that turned Iran loose

703
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:37,799
Speaker 12: to pursue its nuclear ambitions and simultaneously to continue to

704
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 12: pursue its ambitions to dominate the Middle East. So this

705
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 12: is a very difficult but a very very important one.

706
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 12: The showerforce by multiple countries is extremely important.

707
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 10: Will it stop it? Well, let's hope it does, because

708
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 10: the alternatives are just not good. The alternatives being perhaps

709
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 10: trying to attack the Huthis. I suspect that will ultimately unsuccessful.

710
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 10: The negotiations between Saudi Arabia and a Rod are on

711
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 10: a hold because of the Homus attack on Israel and

712
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 10: then Israel's attack in d Gaza, but those may be

713
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 10: able to bear fruit in the days and months ahead.

714
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 10: Hopefully it will.

715
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 11: Congressman. Finally, I want to return to another issue that

716
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 11: has been in the headlines that refers to someone you

717
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 11: are actually just alluding to their speaking of the Trump administration,

718
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 11: the former president. The Supreme Court in the state of Colorado,

719
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 11: of course, ruled earlier this week that he is ineligible

720
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 11: to be president again because of his actions on January sixth,

721
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 11: when in what they say was inciting and insurrection. He

722
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 11: would be removed from the ballot. If this holds. Now,

723
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:51,840
Speaker 11: you have the Lieutenant governor in your state requesting that

724
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:55,800
Speaker 11: the state look into every legal option to do the same.

725
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 11: Is this appropriate in your mind? Or is the issue

726
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 11: of whether or not Trump should serve again, that should

727
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 11: be left to voters, not the courts.

728
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 10: I think every state in this nation should pursue this. However,

729
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 10: and this is a big however, However, believe the Supreme

730
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:19,240
Speaker 10: Court will overrule these individual state actions and allow Trump

731
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 10: to stay on the ballot. Two good things if this

732
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 10: were to happen. First of all, multiple states would take

733
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 10: up the issue of the insurrection that Trump created and

734
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 10: hold him accountable state by state. That would be good

735
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 10: for the American public to know. This is not just

736
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:41,239
Speaker 10: a Washington thing. This is something that states across this

737
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 10: nation are observed and are taking action on. Ultimately, I

738
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 10: believe that Trump should be given the chance to be

739
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 10: on the ballot, and I suspect the Supreme Court will

740
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 10: so rule. Were that not to happen, I believe we'd

741
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:02,759
Speaker 10: have a very serious, very very serious political crisis in

742
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 10: the United States if, in fact, Trump were not allowed

743
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 10: to be on the presidential on the ballots in November.

744
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 10: Between now and November, let the states act, let them

745
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 10: go through the process as did Colorado and put the

746
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:22,800
Speaker 10: proof on the table, which Colorado did, and I believe

747
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 10: other states should do that. Ultimately, I think the Supreme

748
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 10: Court will say no, that can't happen.

749
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 6: That way.

750
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 10: Trump will be on the ballot, and he should be

751
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 10: defeated for multiple reasons. He is a direct threat to

752
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 10: our democracy. He's already talking about being a dictator. Oh,

753
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:44,399
Speaker 10: for only one day, Well, that would be the first

754
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:48,239
Speaker 10: dictator ever that was there for only one day. But

755
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 10: this is a very serious threat to our democracy in

756
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 10: multiple ways. And this is complex as I've described it,

757
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,920
Speaker 10: but I think ultimately indeed the state should take it up.

758
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 10: They should come to a conclusion, and then ultimately the

759
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 10: Supreme Court should take it and allow Trump to go

760
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:09,320
Speaker 10: on the ballot in November.

761
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 11: Well, Congressman, I really appreciate you weighing in on the

762
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 11: complexity not just of this issue, but of issues foreign

763
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 11: policy as well. Thank you so much for joining us.

764
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:21,239
Speaker 11: We really appreciate your time. That is Democratic Congressman John

765
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:25,360
Speaker 11: Garrimandi of California.

766
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the

767
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

768
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:35,400
Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.

769
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:36,800
Speaker 6: The Bloomberg Business app.

770
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,759
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771
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:44,280
Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

772
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 11: All right, well, we want to return to a conversation

773
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 11: we were just having in regard to what is happening

774
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:54,440
Speaker 11: in the Middle East. There have been renewed talks in

775
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,399
Speaker 11: recent days attempts to broker a deal to release more

776
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 11: hostages being held by Hamas, but Hamasa said in the

777
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 11: last twenty four hours it would not discuss a new

778
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,799
Speaker 11: deal to release hostages and tell and this is a

779
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 11: quote from their statement, there is a comprehensive secession of aggression.

780
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 11: This is of course as Israel is stepping up its

781
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 11: operations in Gaza. So we want to get more on

782
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 11: this now, and please to say joining us is Carmeil Arbitch.

783
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:22,319
Speaker 11: She is joining us from the Atlantic Council. She's a

784
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:26,280
Speaker 11: senior fellow there and focuses specifically on the Middle East. Carmil,

785
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 11: we've spoken with you before here at Bloomberg on our

786
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 11: TV program Balance of Power, and you suggested that once

787
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:37,440
Speaker 11: that first brief deal to halt hostilities for a period

788
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:40,720
Speaker 11: of time and exchange hostages expired, which of course it has,

789
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 11: it would be much harder to make a second deal happen.

790
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 11: Do you still feel that way, or do you think

791
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,919
Speaker 11: there is actually potential for another agreement here?

792
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 13: Thank you so much for having me on again.

793
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 8: I do think there is potential for a deal here,

794
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 8: and I think that actually the parties are quite close,

795
00:45:57,719 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 8: and I believe that for a few reasons that we

796
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:00,359
Speaker 8: can go too.

797
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 13: But this will be a much more difficult deal, specifically.

798
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 8: For the Israelis in so far as they received in

799
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 8: the first cease fire and exchange of a ratio of

800
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 8: about one to three hostages for Palestinian prisoners, the prisoners

801
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 8: who were released had very low level or in some

802
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 8: cases no crimes hadn't been charged at all, and that

803
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:27,880
Speaker 8: largest wanthor of prisoners that excuse me, of hostages that

804
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:32,320
Speaker 8: released from Gaza were youth and elderly woman. The situation

805
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 8: that we have now is that Israel has already said

806
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 8: publicly that it is willing to engage in a ceasefire

807
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:43,320
Speaker 8: for seven days in exchange for forty hostages, about half

808
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 8: of what they got last time. And the demands from

809
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 8: Hamas are expected to include prisoners who have blood on

810
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:54,839
Speaker 8: their hands, and so what that means is prisoners who

811
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 8: are kind of high value, who have been involved in

812
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 8: serious or significant crimes, which will of itself be a

813
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:05,319
Speaker 8: much higher price than Israel will have to pay well.

814
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 11: In the meantime, while they're trying to work out whether

815
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:11,359
Speaker 11: or not there can be a deal that's made here.

816
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 11: As I said, things are escalating in Gaza. The IDEF,

817
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:18,880
Speaker 11: it seems, has found more Hamas centers, it says, in

818
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:22,279
Speaker 11: the strip right now, and the civilian death toll, at

819
00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:26,560
Speaker 11: least according to Palestinian authorities has authorities, has surpassed twenty thousand.

820
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 11: I was just speaking with Democratic Congressman John Gary Mendi

821
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:33,240
Speaker 11: of California, who said Israel needs to stop this basically

822
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 11: to paraphrase paraphrase his words, and he said that sentiment

823
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 11: is turning against them. Garmiel, do you think that's true.

824
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:43,759
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think that the atrocities as we've seen them

825
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:47,720
Speaker 8: in Gaza are just agonizing for anyone who is watching TV.

826
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 8: Watching images of children, of women, of families that have

827
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 8: been killed, of houses that have been demolished, to the

828
00:47:56,880 --> 00:48:01,920
Speaker 8: images are absolutely heart wrenching. And with that, public opinion

829
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 8: in the United States and around the world is shifting,

830
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 8: and pressure on Israel is growing to if not.

831
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 13: Entirely end the war.

832
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:13,759
Speaker 8: Through a permanent ceasefire, to at least pursue a temporary

833
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 8: ceasefire and to move to the next phase of this war.

834
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:19,880
Speaker 8: The Israeli government had said that they were going to

835
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:23,840
Speaker 8: engage in a multi phase war that included a bombing campaign,

836
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:26,920
Speaker 8: a ground operation, and then ultimately to move to the

837
00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:30,399
Speaker 8: next phase, which would be a bit more surgical, which

838
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 8: would not be this high level of intensity of conflict,

839
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:37,760
Speaker 8: and we're seeing preparations for that starting to take place.

840
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 8: So one of the early indications that there is a

841
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:45,280
Speaker 8: ceasefire on the horizon is the intensification of that ground operation,

842
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:49,279
Speaker 8: which we often see frankly by both sides in anticipation

843
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 8: of a pause.

844
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 11: Well, as you talk about the intensity of the operations,

845
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 11: the US would like to see the temperature lowered here.

846
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 11: This is actually something we heard the Secretary of State

847
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 11: Antime blink and talking about just yesterday. Here is what

848
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 11: he had to say on this.

849
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:09,440
Speaker 14: It's clear that the conflict will move and needs to

850
00:49:09,480 --> 00:49:17,440
Speaker 14: move to a lower intensity phase, and we expect to

851
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:23,360
Speaker 14: see and want to see a shift to more targeted

852
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:29,280
Speaker 14: operations with a smaller number of forces that's really focused

853
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 14: in on dealing with the leadership of AMAS, the Tunnel Network.

854
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 11: And Kermielle. It's interesting as we hear Secretary blink In

855
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:46,239
Speaker 11: there suggesting that in Gaza, specifically in the conflict between

856
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 11: Israel and Hamas, the intensity needs to be lowered. At

857
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:51,400
Speaker 11: the same time Bloomberg is reporting that the US is

858
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 11: actually considering perhaps upping the intensity when it comes to

859
00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 11: action against Toothy rebels, which are of course based in

860
00:49:57,520 --> 00:50:01,720
Speaker 11: Yemen sponsored by Iran. It's another proxy for run because

861
00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:04,400
Speaker 11: of what's happening in the Red Sea, the disruption to

862
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:08,880
Speaker 11: merchant trade flows and just maritime behavior. If the US

863
00:50:08,920 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 11: were to go on offense against the Houthis, would that

864
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:12,720
Speaker 11: be a mistake.

865
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 8: I think that the threat posed by the Hutis is

866
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:20,520
Speaker 8: not limited to Israel.

867
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:23,879
Speaker 13: It is really at this stage of global threat to.

868
00:50:23,880 --> 00:50:28,319
Speaker 8: International shipping, as different companies who have been trying to

869
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:33,240
Speaker 8: send goods via the Red Sea are now under attack,

870
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:34,319
Speaker 8: and so we have.

871
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 13: Seen the UTIs designated in the past.

872
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 8: I think that the HUTI threat as an Iranian back

873
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:42,799
Speaker 8: group has long been a priority for the US, including

874
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 8: as demonstrated through their support of Saudi Arabia and the

875
00:50:46,280 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 8: UAE during their war against the UTIs. I think that

876
00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 8: this is an important and obvious next step frankly from

877
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:56,240
Speaker 8: the US, I do think it's useful to think about

878
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:58,919
Speaker 8: the different dimensions of this conflict. It is not only

879
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:01,799
Speaker 8: what's happening in Gaza, but also what's taking place right

880
00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 8: now in Syria, in Lebanon, and of course in Yemen,

881
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 8: as different actors, in many cases backed by Iran, are

882
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 8: continuing to threaten Israel, and Israel is responding in kind.

883
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 13: And so even as the assaults and.

884
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 8: Gaza may wind down, we may see a wind up

885
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:20,359
Speaker 8: on the northern border in.

886
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 13: Addition to what we may see visa the US and

887
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:23,680
Speaker 13: the Putis.

888
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:25,640
Speaker 8: Well.

889
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 11: And it becomes, I guess, a calculation for the US

890
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:30,640
Speaker 11: as well as to what other Arab countries and Arab

891
00:51:30,719 --> 00:51:33,560
Speaker 11: allies would would like to see done here, because you

892
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 11: take the Saudi's for example, which have actually seen their

893
00:51:36,800 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 11: energy infrastructure in the past damage by who the attacks

894
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 11: and by all accounts, would like to see them handled

895
00:51:43,200 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 11: in a bit more of a measured way. If the

896
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:48,919
Speaker 11: US were to escalate this to a certain degree, would

897
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:52,600
Speaker 11: that be problematic for our partners in the Middle East.

898
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:54,879
Speaker 8: I think our partners in the Middle East have been

899
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:58,160
Speaker 8: very vocal in terms of both their involvement in these

900
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:00,719
Speaker 8: conflicts and what they are and are not.

901
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 13: Willing to tolerate from the US.

902
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 8: Fortunately, the United States has very close relationships with Sudney

903
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:09,760
Speaker 8: countries across the Gulf who have been engaged in differing

904
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 8: degrees in terms of how we engage with the Jutis

905
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 8: and their involvement with Israel. So I wouldn't actually expect

906
00:52:17,719 --> 00:52:20,720
Speaker 8: escalated tensions with Sunny countries. If we were to escalate

907
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:22,479
Speaker 8: with the Houtis to the country, I think there would

908
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:23,920
Speaker 8: be quiet support for that.

909
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:29,800
Speaker 11: And while we think about conflict or at least disruption

910
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 11: in the Red Sea, obviously conflict when it comes to

911
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:34,759
Speaker 11: Israel and Hamas, it keeps bringing us back to this

912
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:37,880
Speaker 11: very same question, Karmil, which is what is the endgame,

913
00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 11: the day that this all ends. Whenever that day is,

914
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:43,839
Speaker 11: however far out into the future, what does the order

915
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:47,439
Speaker 11: actually look like? How are you thinking about that next day?

916
00:52:48,719 --> 00:52:48,959
Speaker 13: Yeah?

917
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:51,360
Speaker 8: I think that this is really the million dollar question,

918
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 8: and it's something that the Israelis have not been serious

919
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 8: about grappling with but are starting to get to.

920
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:59,919
Speaker 13: I think the question is in the region, how can we.

921
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 8: Ring about more peaceful, stable Middle East, starting with Gaza,

922
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:08,440
Speaker 8: but really across the Levant, and this is going to

923
00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:11,319
Speaker 8: be a huge challenge. I think that we are potentially

924
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:16,359
Speaker 8: facing a long period of continued violence and instability, even

925
00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 8: if we are entering into a lower intensity conflict, one

926
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 8: that will then create space for what I hope will

927
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 8: be political negotiations that could yield some kind of a

928
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:31,080
Speaker 8: two state outcome between Israelis and the Palestinians. That would

929
00:53:31,120 --> 00:53:35,920
Speaker 8: include the Palestinian authority retaking control and administering Gaza and

930
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:38,000
Speaker 8: essentially uniting the two territories.

931
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 10: I think that would be.

932
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:42,560
Speaker 8: Pretty significant change and one that could at least be

933
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 8: a positive outcome from what has been a very difficult

934
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:47,080
Speaker 8: seventy six days of war.

935
00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:52,440
Speaker 11: Yeah, and difficult is almost understating it. We appreciate your insight, Carmil,

936
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:54,959
Speaker 11: thank you so much for joining us. That's Carnil Arbit

937
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:57,760
Speaker 11: of the Atlantic Council, where she is a senior Fellow.

938
00:53:57,800 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 11: Will have much more coming up on sound on This

939
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:00,920
Speaker 11: is Bloomberg.

940
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:07,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

941
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:11,360
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

942
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com.

943
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:14,800
Speaker 6: And the Bloomberg Business app.

944
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:17,759
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

945
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:22,240
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

946
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 11: I am indeed Kaylie Lines here on the fastest show

947
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:30,000
Speaker 11: in Politics. Joe Matthew is taking a well deserved day off,

948
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:31,920
Speaker 11: but we have much to discuss, as we have been

949
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:34,880
Speaker 11: discussing over the course of the last two days, specifically

950
00:54:34,920 --> 00:54:38,239
Speaker 11: when it comes to former President Donald Trump. Colorado State

951
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 11: Supreme Court making history in many ways this week when

952
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:44,320
Speaker 11: it ruled he is ineligible to be president on grounds

953
00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:48,000
Speaker 11: of the fourteenth Amendment because of his actions on January sixth.

954
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 11: But ultimately this very likely is going to end up

955
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:53,720
Speaker 11: being a decision that the Supreme Court of the United

956
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:56,920
Speaker 11: States has to make. I actually on this program yesterday

957
00:54:57,000 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 11: spoke with Lawrence Tribe, who is a well known Supreme

958
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:02,919
Speaker 11: Court expert and professor at Harvard Law, and he told

959
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:06,480
Speaker 11: me he thinks the High Court will uphold the ruling here.

960
00:55:06,520 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 15: He is, well, I don't have a crystal ball. I

961
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:12,440
Speaker 15: think as they follow the law. Judge Michael Ludig, a

962
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:15,080
Speaker 15: very distinguished conservative, and I think they will have to

963
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 15: affirm the decision and render an unexpected, perhaps in many

964
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 15: ways unpopular ruling that keeps him off the ballot. They

965
00:55:24,560 --> 00:55:28,600
Speaker 15: find some way consistent with the fourteenth Amendment and their

966
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:32,920
Speaker 15: host of the Constitution, some exit ramp, some way of

967
00:55:33,120 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 15: not keeping him off the ballot. I don't really see

968
00:55:36,160 --> 00:55:39,479
Speaker 15: what it could be, but it's a pretty ingenious court

969
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:42,439
Speaker 15: and they have found ways to do some pretty strange things.

970
00:55:44,239 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 11: So contrast that with what I was just told earlier

971
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:51,600
Speaker 11: this hour by Democratic Congressman from California, John garri Mendi.

972
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:55,280
Speaker 10: Here he is, I believe that Trump should be given

973
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:57,320
Speaker 10: the chance to be on the ballot, and I suspect

974
00:55:57,360 --> 00:56:02,760
Speaker 10: the Supreme Court will so rule. Were that not to happen,

975
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:07,560
Speaker 10: I believe we'd have a very serious, very very serious

976
00:56:07,840 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 10: political crisis in the United States if, in fact, Trump

977
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:15,480
Speaker 10: were not allowed to be on the presidential on the

978
00:56:15,520 --> 00:56:16,759
Speaker 10: ballots in November.

979
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:21,200
Speaker 11: So I want to get another take now by actually

980
00:56:21,239 --> 00:56:24,440
Speaker 11: someone who sat on the January sixth committee in the

981
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:27,760
Speaker 11: House of Representatives. The report that came from that committee

982
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 11: actually showed up not just in the Colorado District courts

983
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:33,320
Speaker 11: of ruling that was in question here, but the Supreme

984
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 11: Court said that it had every right to be used

985
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 11: as evidence in this case. In particular, joining me now,

986
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:43,400
Speaker 11: I'm pleased to say, is former Congressman Stephanie Murphy. So, Congressman,

987
00:56:43,480 --> 00:56:45,319
Speaker 11: thank you very much for being with us. As someone

988
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:47,880
Speaker 11: who sat as I said, on the January sixth Committee,

989
00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:50,879
Speaker 11: who of those two individuals do you think is right

990
00:56:51,040 --> 00:56:51,680
Speaker 11: in this case?

991
00:56:53,320 --> 00:56:57,719
Speaker 16: Well, I think one person was arguing the legal and

992
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:02,720
Speaker 16: judicial angle of the case and the other was looking

993
00:57:02,719 --> 00:57:05,000
Speaker 16: at it through the political lens. I have all the

994
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 16: respect in the world for a Congressman Gary Mundy, but

995
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:11,040
Speaker 16: as he explained himself that he was concerned about the

996
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:16,400
Speaker 16: political consequences of a Supreme Court ruling that kept the

997
00:57:16,440 --> 00:57:21,120
Speaker 16: former president off the ballot, I think, you know it's

998
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:23,120
Speaker 16: going to be up to the courts to apply Section

999
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:26,440
Speaker 16: three of the fourteenth Amendment. But without a doubt, the

1000
00:57:26,520 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 16: January sixth Committee did show that the former president engaged

1001
00:57:29,880 --> 00:57:33,840
Speaker 16: in insurrection or gave aid or comfort to those who

1002
00:57:33,880 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 16: engaged in insurrection, which is the language that is used

1003
00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:42,040
Speaker 16: in the fourteenth Amendment that would prohibit people who conducted

1004
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:43,760
Speaker 16: such activities from being on a batot.

1005
00:57:45,600 --> 00:57:48,400
Speaker 11: So do you feel good about the fact that the

1006
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:51,840
Speaker 11: Committee's work is being used as a legal basis here

1007
00:57:52,320 --> 00:57:56,080
Speaker 11: for this. Do you think that that's justified or should

1008
00:57:56,120 --> 00:57:59,640
Speaker 11: he be actually charged with insurrection and formally convicted?

1009
00:57:59,680 --> 00:58:05,240
Speaker 16: First, you know, I think that the January sixth Select

1010
00:58:05,240 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 16: Committee provided a lot of information that has been used

1011
00:58:08,600 --> 00:58:11,720
Speaker 16: not just in this court case, but in a number

1012
00:58:11,760 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 16: of cases, whether that's Georgia or otherwise as it relates

1013
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 16: to prosecuting the folks who committed crimes on January sixth.

1014
00:58:20,960 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 16: You know, January sixth Select Committee really was the first

1015
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:27,200
Speaker 16: time where we painted a full picture of what happened.

1016
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:32,280
Speaker 16: As you might recall, in the days and months before

1017
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:36,760
Speaker 16: the January sixth Select Committee began our hearings, the American

1018
00:58:36,800 --> 00:58:40,360
Speaker 16: people saw bits and pieces, you know, the phone call

1019
00:58:40,560 --> 00:58:44,640
Speaker 16: to the Georgia state officials. They got little pieces of

1020
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:47,480
Speaker 16: what happened in the run up to January sixth, But

1021
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:50,560
Speaker 16: really it was the Select Committee that painted the broader picture,

1022
00:58:50,760 --> 00:58:54,520
Speaker 16: the full narrative of all of the activities at the local, state,

1023
00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:57,600
Speaker 16: and federal level to try to change the outcome of

1024
00:58:57,840 --> 00:59:01,080
Speaker 16: a fare and free election. It's not a surprise to

1025
00:59:01,120 --> 00:59:04,360
Speaker 16: me that that information, that evidence is being used by

1026
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:05,160
Speaker 16: the courts.

1027
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:09,400
Speaker 11: So if it is indeed being used in the courts,

1028
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:12,280
Speaker 11: and therefore matters to the courts. Do you think it

1029
00:59:12,320 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 11: matters enough to the American electorate, to the base that

1030
00:59:16,200 --> 00:59:19,400
Speaker 11: this former president appeals to that does not seem to

1031
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:23,040
Speaker 11: be swayed by what the committee presented or what, frankly,

1032
00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:27,080
Speaker 11: the courts or other legal authorities have to say about

1033
00:59:27,120 --> 00:59:27,480
Speaker 11: the matter.

1034
00:59:28,640 --> 00:59:34,120
Speaker 16: I've been a bit dismayed by the short term memory

1035
00:59:34,200 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 16: of the American electorate. I think we did see an

1036
00:59:38,320 --> 00:59:41,960
Speaker 16: initial impact from the January sixth elect Committee hearings in

1037
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:46,720
Speaker 16: the election that immediately followed. We saw the American people

1038
00:59:46,800 --> 00:59:51,200
Speaker 16: reject election deniers pretty much across the board across this country.

1039
00:59:51,640 --> 00:59:57,600
Speaker 16: But now there are other issues that are crowding the voters' minds,

1040
00:59:57,640 --> 01:00:02,760
Speaker 16: and they're starting to sort of set aside the shocking

1041
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:06,080
Speaker 16: and stunning activities of the former president on January sixth

1042
01:00:06,280 --> 01:00:09,200
Speaker 16: and focusing on some of the other issues that are

1043
01:00:09,240 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 16: more important as voters go to the polls. You know,

1044
01:00:11,760 --> 01:00:15,680
Speaker 16: as an elected official, you know, I was a member

1045
01:00:15,680 --> 01:00:19,080
Speaker 16: of Congress, and every campaign we always talked about what

1046
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:21,680
Speaker 16: matters to people when they go to the polls, and

1047
01:00:21,760 --> 01:00:26,240
Speaker 16: usually it's about economic security and physical security. These more

1048
01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:32,360
Speaker 16: lofty ideas of democracy sometimes are a bit harder to

1049
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 16: ask people to cast their ballot purely based around that,

1050
01:00:36,120 --> 01:00:40,680
Speaker 16: And unfortunately that's really really problematic because you can't have

1051
01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:46,480
Speaker 16: a strong economy and you know, physical community security without

1052
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:48,800
Speaker 16: having a functioning democracy.

1053
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:52,919
Speaker 11: And finally, Congressman, we only have about a minute left.

1054
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:55,640
Speaker 11: But when we think about voters heading to the polls

1055
01:00:55,680 --> 01:00:58,120
Speaker 11: and deciding who ultimately is going to be in power,

1056
01:00:58,200 --> 01:01:01,040
Speaker 11: do you worry about potentially the precedent that could be

1057
01:01:01,080 --> 01:01:04,880
Speaker 11: said here if indeed someone is kept off the ballot

1058
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 11: and it's seen as political.

1059
01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:11,560
Speaker 16: I think right now, no matter how the Supreme Court

1060
01:01:12,040 --> 01:01:15,080
Speaker 16: finds in this case, it's going to be seen as political.

1061
01:01:15,800 --> 01:01:18,520
Speaker 16: They are under a lot of scrutiny at this point

1062
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:24,680
Speaker 16: because of some of the misconduct, the accepting of gifts,

1063
01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:27,160
Speaker 16: and so there are a lot of questions about the

1064
01:01:27,200 --> 01:01:31,560
Speaker 16: Supreme Court's legitimacy as well as its ethical obligations, and

1065
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:34,600
Speaker 16: so whichever way they find in this case is going

1066
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 16: to be unfortunately seen as political, and that hurts our

1067
01:01:37,400 --> 01:01:42,440
Speaker 16: country broadly when our institutions are undermined and people who's

1068
01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:44,720
Speaker 16: faith in that way.

1069
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:47,040
Speaker 11: All right, Congresswoman, thank you so much. For joining us.

1070
01:01:47,080 --> 01:01:50,880
Speaker 11: That's former Congresswoman and member of the January sixth Select Committee,

1071
01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:54,000
Speaker 11: Stephanie Murphy. This is sound On on Bloomberg.

1072
01:01:57,280 --> 01:01:59,200
Speaker 9: Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast.

1073
01:01:59,240 --> 01:02:02,360
Speaker 1: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already had Apple, Spotify,

1074
01:02:02,440 --> 01:02:04,880
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1075
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:07,919
Speaker 1: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one

1076
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:12,480
Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.