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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. But this one is good.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: We're throwing in Joe speak. We're saying it's a cash stars.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to Wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible, big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to back,

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Speaker 2: and we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm Brandon Anderson here

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Speaker 3: with Raheem Palmer to wrap up a snoozefest of a

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Speaker 3: week seven slate. Only one game all day closer than

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Speaker 3: eight points. We had margins of two, nine, eleven, twelve, fourteen,

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Speaker 3: twenty two, twenty four, twenty four, twenty six, thirty five,

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Speaker 3: and forty one points. Average winning score today twenty points even,

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Speaker 3: and the AFC is upside down. We got the Raiders,

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Speaker 3: the Bengals, and the Titans all tied for the one

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Speaker 3: seed right now fora him, I had a brutal day

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Speaker 3: with picks today, but somehow came out slightly. Had with

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Speaker 3: that Colt's upset special at the end. Did you fear

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Speaker 3: any better than me?

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Speaker 2: Today?

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Speaker 4: I pretty much was just drinking the juice today. I

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Speaker 4: was I think I was like six and five in

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Speaker 4: the NFL, So I mean, I didn't really make anything.

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Speaker 4: It's just it's a tough day for the like if

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Speaker 4: you're a sharp better like these last three weeks have

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Speaker 4: just been brutal.

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Speaker 1: I mean when you look at look at the Washington football.

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Speaker 4: Team, they took steam down from plus ten to plus

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Speaker 4: seven and a half, the Green Bay Packers cover.

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Speaker 1: You look at a game like the Eagles.

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Speaker 4: There's a lot of sharp money on the Philadelphia Eagles

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Speaker 4: at plus three and a half. That think close plus

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Speaker 4: two plus one and a half. Eagles go out there

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Speaker 4: and get blown out. You look at the Houston Texas,

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Speaker 4: they took some sharp money. They got blown out thirty

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Speaker 4: one to five. It's just it's a off week to

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Speaker 4: be a math analytical better right now. The public is

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Speaker 4: just they're making a killing right now, So keep doing

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Speaker 4: what you're doing. I want to see guys win, so

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Speaker 4: I'm never gonna hate that.

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Speaker 2: But tough, tough October.

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Speaker 3: I feel like we're on about like three weeks in

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Speaker 3: a row that have the same sort of feeling like it.

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Speaker 3: It feels like, you know, you get to march madness,

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Speaker 3: just survive in advance. Like I feel like, just just

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Speaker 3: get through the week. Okay, we I didn't get crushed.

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Speaker 3: I somehow came out about even again. All right, Okay,

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Speaker 3: good done, get rid of the week, onto the next one.

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Speaker 3: So we will talk through some of these games today.

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Speaker 3: We're rushing, gonna mix things up a little bit with

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Speaker 3: such a rough slate. We're gonna go through a couple

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Speaker 3: of these early games, but then we decide we just

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Speaker 3: want to go on a deep dive through the AFC

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Speaker 3: playoff picture. Very wonky standings right now, really wide open.

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Speaker 3: So we're gonna start with a couple of games and

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Speaker 3: eventually we'll touch on every game like usual, all the

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Speaker 3: betting takeaways and hit up money at football in the

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Speaker 3: Week eight hot read as always Odds Today from bet GM,

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Speaker 3: the official odds provider of the Action Howork podcast.

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Speaker 2: So let's start out with.

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Speaker 3: The big biggest upset of the day, which turned out

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Speaker 3: to be veryly even watchable by the end, a blowout

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Speaker 3: as the Bengals go into Baltimore and curb stop the

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Speaker 3: Ravens forty one seventeen, Lamar Jackson's first loss ever in October,

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Speaker 3: first loss ever to the Bengals, Cincinnati's biggest win ever

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Speaker 3: against Baltimore. Yeah, Baltimore was the one seed before the day,

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Speaker 3: and now they're not even leading the division. Cincinnati is

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Speaker 3: currently the AFC one seed. The Cincinnati Bengals your one seed.

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Speaker 3: Where do we start with this one?

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Speaker 4: I think it just says a lot about the Cincinnati Bengals.

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Speaker 4: They built their roster, they built the the d lin

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Speaker 4: and free agency, and they did everything that they needed

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Speaker 4: to do to prepare for this matchup and for them

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Speaker 4: to get it done in this manner, it really even

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Speaker 4: wasn't competitive. Joseph Burrow went out there twenty three or

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Speaker 4: thirty eight, four hundred and sixty yards, three touchdowns in

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Speaker 4: a set. I mean, Jamar Chase was the guy today,

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Speaker 4: eight receptions, one yards, one touchdown. But it was the

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Speaker 4: defense that was just absolutely amazing. I don't even know

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Speaker 4: what to say. I mean, the Bengal was just dominating

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Speaker 4: on both sides of the ball. Winning yard at five

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Speaker 4: hundred twenty three hundred and ninety three yards will play

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Speaker 4: eight point three to five point five.

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously Baltimore they struggled in the red zone.

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Speaker 4: They were one for four, but it says a lot

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Speaker 4: about the Ravens defense, and we look at the Ravens defense.

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Speaker 4: They're like the third team all time to allow three

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Speaker 4: four hundred yard passes in the first seven games of

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Speaker 4: the season, so that's a concern. I think they were

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Speaker 4: able to shut down Justin Herbert last week, but right

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Speaker 4: now their passive defense isn't great at all.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I almost feel like this game told me more

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Speaker 3: about the Ravens defense thanded about the Bengals defense. Eight

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Speaker 3: point three yards per play for the Bengals, and granted

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Speaker 3: that was boosted by a few big players, but big

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Speaker 3: players kill you. This is how That's how the NFL works.

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Speaker 3: Uzoma had two long touchdowns fifty five and thirty two yards,

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Speaker 3: Chase had that eighty two yard touchdown. And these weren't

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Speaker 3: just bombs over the top. These are like the Ravens

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Speaker 3: are just not tackling today. When have we ever seen

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Speaker 3: the Baltimore Ravens not tackle and just letting these guys

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Speaker 3: are right through their arms and then off to the

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Speaker 3: races again and offensively too worrying for the Ravens. I've

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Speaker 3: talked about being hesitant to believe in this team because

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Speaker 3: of Lamar Jackson, well, because of what's left around Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 3: When he came out in this game, because it was

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Speaker 3: it was a rap and so it's time to put

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Speaker 3: in the backups. But when he came out at that point,

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Speaker 3: he was responsible for all but twenty one yards for

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Speaker 3: the entire offense that Baltimore had. They had eleven rushes

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Speaker 3: for twenty one yards, and then he had eighty eight

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Speaker 3: yards rushing and two hundred and fifty seven passing.

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Speaker 2: It's all him.

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Speaker 3: And if the defense isn't tackling, and the offense isn't helping,

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Speaker 3: and there's not a whole lot else happening, it's hard

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Speaker 3: for a guy to, you know, one man to be

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Speaker 3: one on fifty three in these kind of games. This

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Speaker 3: felt like a fifty three man win though. Joe Burrow,

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Speaker 3: you know, up to the challenge. I was big on

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Speaker 3: Cincinnati on this game. This was my favorite pick of

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Speaker 3: the week as a spread, but I wasn't quite willing

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Speaker 3: to play the money line. I didn't think Burrow was

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Speaker 3: ready to go to Baltimore and get the job done.

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Speaker 2: I was wrong.

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Speaker 3: Four hundred and sixteen yards, three scores. Here's here's the question.

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Speaker 3: I have the Bengals with a one seed right now.

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow is fifty to one to win the MVP

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Speaker 3: right now at bet MGM, is there any chance there

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Speaker 3: He's He's got to be in the middle.

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Speaker 4: There's no chance he's winning MVP. I'll see that. There's

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Speaker 4: just too many guys right now who are playing better

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Speaker 4: than him. In my opinion, I think right now, when

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Speaker 4: I look at the MVP rates, and I think there's

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Speaker 4: five guys. You have Tom Brady, you have Justin Herbert,

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Speaker 4: you have Dak Prescott. I think Mahomes has kind of

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Speaker 4: removed himself from it.

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Speaker 2: I think so.

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Speaker 4: I just think he said to me turnovers, I think

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Speaker 4: you have Kyler Murray, and I think you have before

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Speaker 4: this game, it was Lamar Jackson. So maybe like Bob Proxy,

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Speaker 4: maybe Joe Burrow is there. But I just don't I

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Speaker 4: don't think he has the numbers.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I just wonder at fifty to one, he certainly

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Speaker 3: is outside of that group of players. But we talked,

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Speaker 3: you know, and I wrote about MVP race a couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks ago, and I brought up Baker Mayfield, who

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Speaker 3: obviously isn't even playing right now because of the injury.

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Speaker 3: But the premise was, Hey, if the Browns actually make

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Speaker 3: a run and could get a one seed here when

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Speaker 3: you have to give some credit, Well, how.

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Speaker 2: About the Bengals.

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Speaker 3: It's not like the Bengals have a much better reputation,

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Speaker 3: and if they are doing this thing and Burrows playing

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Speaker 3: the swell, I think there is some value at fifty

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Speaker 3: to one.

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Speaker 1: Certainly is outside to argue with that. I can't argue

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Speaker 1: with that at all.

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Speaker 3: I do think though this game, you know, we've we're

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Speaker 3: seeing more of these games this season where it turns

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Speaker 3: into a blowout but wasn't necessarily thorough domination the whole way.

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Speaker 3: It's thirteen to ten at the half. Ravens actually took

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Speaker 3: the lead starting the second half. You know, then it

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Speaker 3: turned into a blowout, but the Bengals scored touchdowns on

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Speaker 3: four of their next five possessions. The other possession was

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Speaker 3: interception in the end zone. But you know, they were

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Speaker 3: playing on short fields the whole half because Baltimore, because

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Speaker 3: of the Ravens, didn't just put their tail between their

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Speaker 3: legs and go away. They kept going for it and

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Speaker 3: then they didn't get it and they turned over on

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Speaker 3: downs and so cincinnat he's getting some of these scores

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Speaker 3: on short field. So certainly, nothing to take away from Cincinnati.

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Speaker 3: But you know, the game was a little closer I

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Speaker 3: think than the final score indicates even so huge win

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Speaker 3: for the Bengals. We've kind of gone back and forth.

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Speaker 3: I'm like, all right, well, this is not a bad team.

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Speaker 3: It's an average team. Yeah, maybe they're above average team.

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Speaker 3: Looks like a playoff team at this point, so definitely,

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Speaker 3: you know, we'll talk about both these teams again in

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Speaker 3: our playoff picture. Jamar Chase, huge game for him, eight catches,

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Speaker 3: two hundred and one yards. I wrote down in my

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Speaker 3: notes as I was watching this game, Holy cow, Jamar.

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Speaker 2: Chase is the rookie of the year.

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Speaker 3: He's got to be at a minus number at this point,

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Speaker 3: and is he low enough that it's still worth invest

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Speaker 3: You texted me like twenty minutes after I wrote that

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Speaker 3: and said, man, the Rookie of the Year race has

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Speaker 3: got to be down to Jamar Chase and Kyle Pets.

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Speaker 3: So talk to me about Kyle Pets. We're not going

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Speaker 3: to do that game, but what are you seeing Kyle Pets?

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Speaker 3: And do you think that the actions in this race?

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Speaker 3: Kyle Pits has been absolutely amazing. He has thirty one receptions,

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Speaker 3: four hundred and seventy one yards. He's probably one of

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Speaker 3: the best tight end prospects we've seen.

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Speaker 1: In a long time. And when you look.

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Speaker 4: At the last two games, he's had sixteen catches to

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Speaker 4: twenty eighty two yards. He's become the second tight end

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Speaker 4: in NFL history back to back one hundred yard receiving games.

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Speaker 4: And he's actually his four hundred and seventy one yards

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Speaker 4: are the most and a tight ends first six games

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Speaker 4: in NFL history, and his one hundred and sixty three

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Speaker 4: yards are the fourth most in a single game by

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Speaker 4: a rookie tight end. He's been dominant and I think

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Speaker 4: in any other year he might be looking at him

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Speaker 4: as the offensive player Rookie of the Year. But Jamar

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Speaker 4: Chase is just on a historic run. It's almost unfair

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Speaker 4: becau because Jamar Chase right now he has seven hundred

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Speaker 4: and fifty four yards and that's the most from any

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Speaker 4: player in the first seven games in NFL history, and

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Speaker 4: he's the number one guy. He's playing with Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 4: They're on a better team. He had a big spotlight

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Speaker 4: game against the Baltimore Ravens. Obviously, Kyle Pitts. He played

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Speaker 4: well against the Jets and he played well against the Dolphins,

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Speaker 4: but that wasn't the marquee game.

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Speaker 1: And when you look at what Jamar Chase is.

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Speaker 4: Doing, he's kind of running away with this Award's he's

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Speaker 4: about to shadow what Justin Jefferson did last year with

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Speaker 4: the single season rookie record of fourteen hundred yards. So

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Speaker 4: we're looking at him Justin Jefferson. They're pushing this to

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Speaker 4: where Rady Voss was in nineteen ninety eight. So Jamar

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Speaker 4: Chase is incredible. Kyle Pitts has been incredible, but right

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Speaker 4: now it's chases to lose.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, did digging. I'm Kyle Petts. By the way, Apparently

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Speaker 3: it's National tight Ends Day. Apparently that's a thing. We

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Speaker 3: literally have a day for everything at this point. You know,

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Speaker 3: good job to you, Kyle Pitts on National tight End's Day.

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Speaker 3: So I look trying to figure out, Okay, is this

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Speaker 3: going to be maybe the best rookie tight end season ever?

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Speaker 3: Because that's how you'd form the narrative and looking back

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Speaker 3: couple of the seasons that that you'd have to compare

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Speaker 3: to Mike Ditka, Mike old Ditka fifty six catches, one thousand,

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Speaker 3: seventy six yards, and twelve touchdowns in nineteen sixty one.

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Speaker 3: He was rookie the year that year is a tight end,

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Speaker 3: so one thousand, seventy six yards, that's the record twelve touchdown.

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Speaker 3: I think Pitts is going to get there. Only one

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Speaker 3: score so far. I got a lot of games left, though.

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Speaker 3: Keith Jackson nineteen eighty eight had eighty one catches for

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Speaker 3: eight hundred and sixty nine yards and six scores. Eighty

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Speaker 3: one catches definitely looks like it you'd be in reach

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Speaker 3: for pits. So like that. That's the gold standard. Tight

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Speaker 3: Ends don't usually play this well as a rookie. The

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Speaker 3: problem is that it's great to be the best rookie

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Speaker 3: tight end ever. It's a lot better to be the

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Speaker 3: best rookie receiver ever, especially if the name that you

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Speaker 3: might be dethroning is Randy Moss. So you might that

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Speaker 3: Chase has the most yards ever by any player after

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Speaker 3: seven games, seven hundred fifty four. He actually is the

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Speaker 3: most yards ever by any player through eight games. He

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Speaker 3: could just come out and sit on the field next

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Speaker 3: week and he would still be ahead of the pace.

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Speaker 3: He's on pace right now, and granted extra game, he's

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Speaker 3: on pace for one, eight hundred and thirty one yards

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Speaker 3: right now. It's ridiculous. He's he's not a good rookie receiver.

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Speaker 3: He's a great receiver period, Like he's got to be.

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Speaker 3: He's got to be a top ten receiver in the

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Speaker 3: NFL right now already, isn't he? Like there is not

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Speaker 3: that many more guys that you want instead of him

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Speaker 3: without a doubt.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So so back to the odds, the odds I'm finding online.

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Speaker 3: I see Jamar Chase, I do see a minus in

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Speaker 3: front of his name. Now that's gotta be right. He's

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Speaker 3: at minus one forty. Kyle Pitts is ten to one

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Speaker 3: right now. I think other than those guys, it's the quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: Mac Jones is plus four fifty, Trevor Lawrence plus eight hundred.

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Speaker 3: I thought one of these quarterbacks would separate. I don't

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Speaker 3: think so Fields is stinking right now. You know, Trey

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Speaker 3: Lance is even playing. Zach Wilson is hurt now and

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Speaker 3: has been terrible. Lawrence hasn't been good. Mac Jones, I

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Speaker 3: don't know how he gets there. Maybe the Patriots, you know,

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Speaker 3: win it off and make the playoffs and you get that.

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Speaker 2: This seems like Chase their pets.

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Speaker 3: So what do you think between those two Pits at

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Speaker 3: ten to one or Chase at minus one and forty,

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Speaker 3: is either one of those worth of play.

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Speaker 1: I think both of them are actually worth a play.

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Speaker 4: I always talk about a lot about how I don't

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Speaker 4: like the hedge with certain things, but I think when

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Speaker 4: it comes to subjective awards, it's always good to be

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Speaker 4: able to have a few different wagers to hedge, and

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Speaker 4: if you can, like isolate the top two guys, you

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Speaker 4: put yourself in a position to where you can get

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Speaker 4: plus money and odds on something. So I think Jamar

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Speaker 4: Chase is obviously the front runner. But when you look

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Speaker 4: at what Pitts is doing and they're heavily relying on pits,

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Speaker 4: the Falcons were.

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Speaker 1: Down and they needed to drive and they needed to

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Speaker 1: throw the pits.

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Speaker 4: So I think if you got those top two guys,

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Speaker 4: you can't lose, and we can see how Matt Jones

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Speaker 4: is doing later in a year, because I do think

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Speaker 4: the Patriots right now maybe they could sneak into a

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Speaker 4: wild card game. I mean it's not out of a question,

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Speaker 4: but I mean I'm not that high on him, but

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Speaker 4: I think there's some vibe where you get the top

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Speaker 4: two guys and Pits and Chase.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Chase has some real value here, you know,

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Speaker 3: with these awards, especially for me. We know I love

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Speaker 3: to play in my long shots and my long futures,

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Speaker 3: and I tend to once an award becomes clear, just

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Speaker 3: kind of check out and be like, oh, well missed

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Speaker 3: about you know, we missed on that. When the value

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Speaker 3: is gone, I think this award is clear. I think

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Speaker 3: Jamar Chase is winning this award like barring an injury

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Speaker 3: or like a massive slow down, he doesn't need the

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Speaker 3: Bengals to still be the one seed all year. He's

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Speaker 3: just going to keep getting the numbers. And it's a

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Speaker 3: number is award, so minus one of forty, I think

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Speaker 3: there's value there still because I don't know who else

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Speaker 3: is going to pass him. Kyle Pitts is not a receiver,

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Speaker 3: and at the end of the day, Chase is going

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Speaker 3: to get more work than him. And I don't think

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Speaker 3: voters are going to look at the numbers at the

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Speaker 3: end of the year and be like, well, let's multiply

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Speaker 3: Pitts's numbers by one point four because he's a tight ender.

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Speaker 3: Like you know, some they're just gonna look at the

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Speaker 3: two numbers and be like, well, Chase has five hundred

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Speaker 3: more yards, so he's the rookie of the year.

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Speaker 2: So I do think there's some value there.

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Speaker 3: I want to get some money in on that, even

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Speaker 3: at minus one p forty, even you know, drinking the.

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Speaker 2: Juice a little bit.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and even that has to be a pretty big injury,

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Speaker 3: because I think at this point the cushion is big

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Speaker 3: enough that you even could sustain. You can miss a

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Speaker 3: few weeks and still you know, have a decent shot

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Speaker 3: at this one.

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Speaker 2: All right. Up next, it's our stink of the weekly.

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Speaker 2: Smelly Melly, it's the smell.

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Speaker 1: It's quite pungent. Dude, plug your nose. It's stinks.

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Speaker 3: This is your stink of the week, and this week

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Speaker 3: very special stink of the week. We're not going with

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Speaker 3: a batting angle here. Our stink of the week is

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Speaker 3: just Kansas City Chiefs. The whole team, the offense, the defense,

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Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs collectively are the stink of the week.

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Speaker 3: They scored three points today again the Tennessee Titans. Both

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Speaker 3: of us were huge on the Chiefs this week. We

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Speaker 3: believed and that we went in the Titans just destroyed

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Speaker 3: them twenty seven to three. That wasn't even really as

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Speaker 3: close as that team. They're both teams just kind of

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Speaker 3: coasted through the second half. Titans dominated this one, and

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Speaker 3: that's six days now. In the last six days, Titans

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Speaker 3: have huge, dominating wins against the Chiefs and the Bells.

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Speaker 3: Is this game more to you about Tennessee or tell

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Speaker 3: us more about Kansas City.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna say that it says more about Kansas City.

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Speaker 4: Like Kansas City has been absolutely brutal defensively this year.

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Speaker 4: Their dead last EPA per play, their dead last and

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Speaker 4: success rate.

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Speaker 1: They continue to turn the ball over it at will.

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Speaker 4: This team is just broken, and I think we're seeing

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Speaker 4: that Mahomes like play for Mahomes can't even save this team.

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Speaker 1: They only must have three points.

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Speaker 4: Look, we saw the Titans entire secondary go to the

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Speaker 4: hospital last week on Monday night.

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Speaker 1: Football played on a short week.

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Speaker 4: There's no reason for you to be able to only

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Speaker 4: score three points on this team. So I think this

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Speaker 4: says a lot about Kansas City. I mean, Tennessee has

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Speaker 4: played two great games in a row, but even their

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Speaker 4: win against the Buffalo Bills was misleading to me. To me,

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Speaker 4: the jury is still out on Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: What do you think?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm officially very worried about Kansas City. I have

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Speaker 3: lived these last few years for watch, wait for Pat

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Speaker 3: Mahomes to fall behind and then hammer the liveline, give

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Speaker 3: me the plus odds and just let me jump on it.

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Speaker 3: And I noticed twice this game that I looked and

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Speaker 3: so it was seventeen to nothing somewhere in the second quarter,

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Speaker 3: and it was plus three twenty five, And that's right

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Speaker 3: about the spot where the Chiefs have turned these things around.

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Speaker 3: They're about to get the ball back, they get the

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Speaker 3: quick four or five play touchdown drive boom suddenly at

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Speaker 3: seventeen fourteen and a half time and you're like, oh

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Speaker 3: my gosh, I can't believe I have this free pass

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Speaker 3: at a Chiefs Chiefs line.

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Speaker 2: I couldn't do it. I couldn't pull the trigger.

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Speaker 3: It's the first time in like three years I've looked

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Speaker 3: at that and been like, I don't think so. I

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Speaker 3: don't think Pat and the Chiefs offense have that in there.

382
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Speaker 3: Just it's not working right. The D line was all

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Speaker 3: over them up in the backfield at halftime twenty seven nothing.

384
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Speaker 3: That's a huge hole. You wouldn't even think about that

385
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Speaker 3: for most teams. With the Chiefs, we look at it.

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Speaker 3: It was eleven to one, and I was like, man,

387
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Speaker 3: I'm getting eleven to one to pay out on the

388
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Speaker 3: Chiefs to come out, get the quick touchdown, you know,

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Speaker 3: force a turnover boom right back in the game.

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Speaker 2: I couldn't do it. I couldn't pull the trigger.

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Speaker 3: And it's telling too that the books are starting to

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Speaker 3: be willing to lay that high number to get me

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Speaker 3: to still think about it even though this team is

394
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Speaker 3: just not showing up. So the Titans didn't even play

395
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Speaker 3: like this amazing, great game, and I'm not taking away

396
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Speaker 3: from Tennessee Like that's telling me more about Kansas City.

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Speaker 2: Derrick Henry.

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Speaker 3: Like if you said the Titans won twenty seven to three,

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Speaker 3: you'd be like, oh, man, well Henry two hundred and

400
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Speaker 3: fifty yards again and three scores, Like, oh, he just

401
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,960
Speaker 3: tore them up. No, Derrick Henry, twenty nine carries eighty

402
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Speaker 3: six yards three yards of carry, like that is a

403
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Speaker 3: winning formula for the Chiefs. If you knew that's what

404
00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,200
Speaker 3: he's doing. You think Chiefs twenty seven to three, You're like, oh,

405
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Speaker 3: easy win. Then he did have an early touchdown throw.

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Speaker 3: But this wasn't a game that was all about Derrick Henry.

407
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,080
Speaker 3: This was aj Brown looking healthy again. Big game for

408
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Speaker 3: the Titans. Their defense look good. I bury the defense,

409
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:24,680
Speaker 3: but the d line was really looking good.

410
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Speaker 2: Now.

411
00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:29,399
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes another interception at least one every game this season,

412
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Speaker 3: he had a fumble, He had that late, the hit

413
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Speaker 3: late where it was the last player that he played.

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Speaker 3: He kind of got his next snap back a little bit.

415
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Speaker 3: Looks probably fine, but you never know, and Mahomes does

416
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Speaker 3: have You know, he's kind of played through injuries each

417
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Speaker 3: of the last few seasons at some point because he's

418
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Speaker 3: so keeps the play alive so long and tries to

419
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Speaker 3: do so much that he tends to get those sort

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Speaker 3: of hits sometimes.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Even in the second half, very telling. The Chiefs are

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Speaker 3: down twenty seven. Remember first drive of the second half.

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Speaker 3: The Chiefs get a scoring position, fourth down, and you

425
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:06,359
Speaker 3: read kicks a field goal.

426
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Speaker 2: It's twenty seven to nothing. Your defense can't get off

427
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Speaker 2: the field. The Titans scored every possession of the first half.

428
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Speaker 2: You're kicking a field goal? What is a field goal

429
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Speaker 2: going to do?

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Speaker 3: Have you not watched how literally anyone has played you

431
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Speaker 3: the Chiefs in the last three years. Next drive, get

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Speaker 3: the ball back kick another field goal, and they messed

433
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Speaker 3: up one of those too, So I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I'm very worried about the Chiefs for the first time.

435
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Speaker 3: I think this team has in serious trouble of just

436
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Speaker 3: missing the playoffs, maybe crashing out entirely.

437
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 4: When you give it up nine point two yards for

438
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,200
Speaker 4: past you can't overcome that.

439
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:41,639
Speaker 1: You're at a point where you have to score forty

440
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:42,120
Speaker 1: every game.

441
00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:46,360
Speaker 4: And it's pretty clear that the way teams are defending

442
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:50,520
Speaker 4: Mahomes this year with the two deep safeties and saying, look,

443
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 4: you could throw short, and you got to complete these

444
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:58,440
Speaker 4: ten fifteen play drives and if you make one mistake,

445
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 4: you get one HOTEI can we or you're behind the

446
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 4: chains on first and second down. I just don't think

447
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 4: you can overcome that like a defense that's this bad,

448
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 4: And obviously I think teams have figured out how to

449
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:14,679
Speaker 4: defend this offense. So I think there are serious trouble

450
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,640
Speaker 4: missing the playoffs. I know some people who actually took

451
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 4: the Chiefs to miss the playoffs. At plus seven hundred,

452
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 4: I wonder what the line is now. Yet I'm really

453
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 4: interested in that.

454
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's bad. The Titans first half, Titans had

455
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 3: five drives, eight plays, nine plays, twelve, eight and eight.

456
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 3: They just chewed up the clock. They scored on all

457
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,119
Speaker 3: five of those possessions. So I'm not quite as worried

458
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:42,639
Speaker 3: about the Chiefs offense. Do you make a sound The

459
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 3: problem is just there's no margin for era left when

460
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 3: you're literally giving up a score in every possession. You

461
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,479
Speaker 3: also have to score every possession, and the Chiefs are

462
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:52,879
Speaker 3: built to be able to do that. But if you

463
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 3: don't a couple of times and then your defense can't

464
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 3: get off the field, suddenly it's the middle of the

465
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,159
Speaker 3: second quarter and you're down three scores and you've like

466
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 3: three and out a couple of times. Your defense has

467
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 3: already shot for the rest of the game, and you've

468
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,639
Speaker 3: just you've buried this hole for yourself. And I don't know,

469
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 3: last year, even in last year's run to the Super Bowl,

470
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,160
Speaker 3: we saw this happen. We saw them dig a hole

471
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 3: for themselves and then dig right back out of it.

472
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 3: And you know, we've seen Mahomes do that so many times.

473
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:23,919
Speaker 3: You certainly can still do it, you know. We we're

474
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,119
Speaker 3: not saying that they're just gonna go like five and

475
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 3: twelve now or something. But it's problematic when you keep

476
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 3: digging that hole. Credit to the Titans defense too, you know.

477
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,640
Speaker 3: Jim Schwartz came in has made a big difference there, Autrey, Landry,

478
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 3: dupri and Simmons on the line. I really was impressed

479
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 3: with the d line and the rush that they were getting.

480
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 3: I thought that was really disruptive too.

481
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 4: So it's interesting that they were able to protect Tannehill

482
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 4: with all the offensive line injuries.

483
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: Obviously, Tailor the Wine got injured.

484
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 4: Last Monday's backup left tackle was knocked out of the

485
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 4: game ankle injury.

486
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:02,719
Speaker 1: He's replaced by Bobby Hart.

487
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,679
Speaker 4: Saffle missed a couple of snaps today and they still

488
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 4: managed to pass together a unit. They only gave it

489
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 4: one Saturday, and I'm curious to see if it's going

490
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,400
Speaker 4: to catch up with them the next week they played

491
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 4: the Colts. They got deal with DeForest Buckner, and that

492
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 4: may not be the spot where.

493
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 1: Everything clicks for them.

494
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,679
Speaker 4: Obviously, Kansas City has some struggles on defense, but I

495
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 4: want to see how this team looks when you're playing

496
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 4: somebody who can get.

497
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 1: To the quarterback and do some damage, So yeah, I'm

498
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 1: going forward for sure.

499
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Colts got their big win tonight. Let's talk

500
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 3: about just a few of these other key AFC games.

501
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,639
Speaker 3: Then hit the playoff picture here. So Colts came through

502
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 3: for another upset special for those of you that listened

503
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 3: and played from Friday plus one eighty four money line winner.

504
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 3: On that one, we had an atmospheric river. I don't

505
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 3: know what that is, but it looked awful, So let's

506
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 3: not do that again. Sloppy thirty to eighteen win for Indianapolis.

507
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 3: We had seven mom soon fumbles, just repeated, repeated pass

508
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 3: interference calls Like that was the best play of the game,

509
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:07,640
Speaker 3: was just throw the ball deep and let San Franz

510
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 3: pick up another thirty yard penalty. So Colts came through

511
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,159
Speaker 3: for the win on that one. The Raiders cruise to

512
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 3: thirty three to twenty two win over the Eagles. Vegas

513
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,880
Speaker 3: had seventeen points in a row with only two Eagles

514
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 3: plays in that mix in there, so they ran away

515
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 3: with it. Derek Carr thirty one or thirty four, three

516
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,399
Speaker 3: hundred twenty three yards and two scores. Then the Raiders

517
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 3: are atop the division at five and two, and then

518
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 3: the Patriots massacred to the Jets fifty four to thirteen.

519
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 3: New England has won twelve games in a row against

520
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 3: the Jets by more than twenty points a game. Bill

521
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 3: Belichick is fourteen to zero at home against rookie quarterbacks.

522
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 3: So the Patriots three and four still kind of in

523
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 3: that race. So the Bills and Chargers were off today.

524
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 3: The Browns already won that ugly game on Thursday night,

525
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 3: So let's kind of reset the picture here in the AFC.

526
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 3: Not exactly what either one of us was expecting, not

527
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 3: exactly what anyone was like, so we can all own.

528
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:03,640
Speaker 2: That together collectively. World.

529
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 3: So here's where we're at right now at this moment,

530
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 3: where the playoffs to start today. Cincinnati Bengals are your

531
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 3: AFC one seed at five and two. They're undefeating the

532
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 3: division in the conference. That's the tiebreak. The other teams

533
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 3: at five and two winning their division, the Raiders and

534
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 3: the Titans. So those are your three teams vying for

535
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 3: the one seed, the Bengals, the Raiders, and the Titans.

536
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 3: What up next? The Bills four and two, they're the

537
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 3: other division winner, the Ravens at five and two. In

538
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:35,120
Speaker 3: Charges at four and two look like wild cards, and

539
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 3: then one more wildcard spot open between some mix one

540
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 3: team of the Browns, Steelers, Chiefs, Colts, Broncos, and Patriots,

541
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 3: all kind of around five hundred within a game of

542
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 3: each other. So we want to just kind of talk

543
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 3: about some of these different races and where we're at

544
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 3: as we're somewhat nearing the midpoint of the season. So

545
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:58,439
Speaker 3: let's start with the divisions here. We've talked about some

546
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 3: of these North teams, So AFC and North. The Ravens

547
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 3: are five and two, the Bengals are five and two.

548
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 3: Cincinnati's technically leading the division since they got the win

549
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 3: today and they out the type break. Now the Browns

550
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 3: are up knock. Steelers are three and three, not out

551
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 3: of us. So what are you thinking about the AFC

552
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 3: North right now?

553
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: AFC North, I still don't like the Steelers.

554
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 4: I think they have a solid defense, but I just

555
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 4: can't There's just absolutely no way I could trust Ben

556
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 4: Roethlisberger and that offense. To me, it looks like a

557
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,399
Speaker 4: two team race between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens.

558
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 4: I really like Cleveland coming into the year, but when

559
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 4: you suffer the injuries that they've suffered. It's it's tough,

560
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 4: and they have a brutal schedule. They don't have the

561
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 4: schedule that they had last season. I mean, they got

562
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 4: to play the Steelers this week, then they got to

563
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 4: go on the roll to the Bengals. Even playing a

564
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 4: team like the Patriots is tough in Foxboro. You got

565
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 4: to deal with the Ravens twice. You gotta go with

566
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 4: the Raiders, you got to go on to roll to

567
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,639
Speaker 4: the Packers. I just don't like their schedules, so to me,

568
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 4: I think it's between the Bengals and I think it's

569
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 4: it's between the Ravens.

570
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,120
Speaker 3: So the Bengals are plus three to fifty right now.

571
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 3: The Ravens are minus one thirty. So even though Cincinnati

572
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 3: just beat Baltimore today and is a half game up

573
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 3: on the division because of the tire break, they're plus

574
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 3: three to fifty. Do you like some value on the

575
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 3: Bengals there?

576
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,719
Speaker 4: I do think there's some value because I mean, when

577
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 4: you look at what they've done already. They have a

578
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 4: win over the Stillers, they have a win over the Rates.

579
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 4: They're two to zero in division right now, and they

580
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 4: beat both of their divisional opponents on the road and

581
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 4: they still have to play them at home, so I

582
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 4: think that gives them an advantage over the next couple

583
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 4: of weeks. They got the Jets, which to me is

584
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 4: pretty much an easy win when you look at what

585
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 4: the Jets have done, I know there's no easy wins

586
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 4: in the NFL this season. And then they have the Browns,

587
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 4: who to me are still banged up, so that could

588
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 4: put them into drivers. I do think there's some value,

589
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 4: and then there's also going to be spots where you

590
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 4: can actually head I wouldn't mind taking it.

591
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, looking at this division, I went through the schedules

592
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 3: trying to say, Okay, who's got the soft schedule, who

593
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 3: could maybe come out of in that way.

594
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 2: The answer is nobody.

595
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 3: Their schedules are all brutal, and why is because they

596
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,919
Speaker 3: also play each other like five or six times still,

597
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 3: and every team here is going to be a tough game,

598
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 3: even Pittsburgh I think clearly, you know, not what they

599
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 3: have been before, but still not an easy game. The

600
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 3: defense is still tough. They're gonna be a tough out there.

601
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 3: And most of the division games in the North are backloaded,

602
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 3: so these teams all still have to come through each other.

603
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 3: The Browns are going to get healthier eventually, so they'll

604
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 3: be tougher down the stretch.

605
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: Even the Ravens.

606
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 3: We've talked about the Ravens, they're starting to get a

607
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 3: little healthier too. So tough schedules coming up the angle

608
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 3: that I'm looking at a little bit. If your book

609
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 3: allows a cash out, this is not something I necessarily

610
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 3: believe in long term. Pittsburgh is three and three, the

611
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 3: Steelers are eighteen to one in the division. So here's

612
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 3: the angle next three weeks for the Steelers. They got

613
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 3: the Browns, the Bears, and the Lions. That's a very

614
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 3: good chance to get to six and three if you

615
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 3: can go and get that one over the Browns, a

616
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 3: banged up Browns, and we don't know who's going to

617
00:28:58,480 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 3: play for that game.

618
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 2: Get the one.

619
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 3: You beat the Bears, you beat the Lions, you get

620
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 3: to six and three. It's rough after that. Chargers, Bengals, Ravens, Vikings, Titans, Chiefs, Browns, Ravens.

621
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 3: I don't want any of that action. I'm gonna cash out.

622
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 3: But if you can get in at eighteen to one

623
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 3: and then three weeks from now you're at six and three,

624
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 3: hopefully if you like them against the Browns this week.

625
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 3: I do think that there's a little value there. You'd

626
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 3: have a shot depending on what else happens in the division.

627
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 3: But I think that for the Steelers to win the division,

628
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 3: you probably need it to be like a ten to

629
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 3: win division. When all four of them finish out five

630
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 3: hundred are kind of in that range. So I don't

631
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 3: necessarily love it long term, But what do you think

632
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 3: about the short term play?

633
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 1: I'm personally gonna stay away from it, but I'm not

634
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 1: mad at it from you.

635
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 3: I'm not all right, fair enough, I'll take it all right.

636
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 3: Let's look at the FCUS. So in the West, we've

637
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 3: got the Raiders at five and two the Chargers at

638
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 3: four and two, so basically tied. The Raiders are off

639
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 3: next week. The Charges were off this week, so they'll

640
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 3: they'll be even on games after next week. The Chiefs

641
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 3: are three and four the bron because they're three and four.

642
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 3: Odds on this one do not match the standings. Again,

643
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 3: like with the Bengals, the Raiders are leading the division

644
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 3: but are plus three to fifty. Here, they're third in

645
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 3: the odds to win the division. The Chiefs are ahead

646
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 3: of the Raiders. They're plus two tens. Still still a

647
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 3: lot of belief in the Chiefs. The Chargers are just

648
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 3: about even odds at minus one oh five. I don't

649
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 3: think we probably have to say much about Denver at

650
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 3: this point. So what do you think about the AFCUS

651
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 3: Between those three teams? Who do you like and is

652
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 3: their odds on any of those three or four teams there?

653
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 4: I think the Chargers are the best team in the division.

654
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 4: I still don't quite understand the Raiders. They are overperforming

655
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 4: the market, and I don't think that said something. They

656
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 4: beat the Broncos as underdogs, A lot of sharp money

657
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 4: on the Philadelphia Eagles today and the Raiders still pull

658
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 4: through and they're likely going to be favorites over the

659
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 4: Giants next week. I still don't quite understand this team.

660
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 4: So the plus three to fifty on the Raiders is

661
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 4: a fair price. But I'm looking at the Charges to

662
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 4: meet the best offense, they have the best defense in

663
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 4: this division. They probably have the best head coach right now.

664
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 4: I think right now Brandon Staley is just given his

665
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 4: team the chance to win more than any other team

666
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 4: in this division.

667
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 1: So I'm going with the Chargers.

668
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's when it's tough. The Chiefs probably have the

669
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 3: easiest schedule down the stretch, just in that they've had

670
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 3: a pretty brutal schedule starting out here. They already have

671
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 3: had to play the Browns, Ravens, Chargers, Bills, and Titans.

672
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 3: That's five tough games they also lost. For those games,

673
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 3: they could have lost all five of them if the

674
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 3: Browns had finished the job, they pretty much just be

675
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 3: in a confin at this point if that had happened.

676
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 2: So I don't know.

677
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 3: Thisege gets a little bit easier, but they're in a

678
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 3: pretty big hole to me. I agree that it's the Chargers,

679
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 3: but I don't want to play it right now. The

680
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 3: reason is the Raiders are on a bye week, They're

681
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 3: on a you know, two game win streak here. Then

682
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 3: they play the Giants. They're not going to lose the Giants,

683
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 3: you know, they could anything happen. We're seeing that. But

684
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 3: after that they've got Chiefs, Bengals, Cowboys, Washington Chiefs, and

685
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 3: Browns rough stretch. I don't believe in the Raiders yet,

686
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 3: but they would be six and two after they win

687
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 3: that Giants game. So I think at that point your

688
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 3: odds shortened, Like the reason is us I want to

689
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,719
Speaker 3: bet the Chargers, but not yet because the next two

690
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 3: weeks the Chargers play the Patriots and the Eagles. They

691
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 3: should win those games, but they might not. They could

692
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 3: lose one. There's no reason. There's very little for me

693
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 3: to gain getting my money in right now up against

694
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 3: the Raiders two weeks from now. The Raiders are six

695
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 3: and two, once they know win that New York game,

696
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 3: and if the Chargers have won both of their games,

697
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 3: I probably can still play a line pretty similar to

698
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 3: this one, because suddenly they're gonna be looking at this

699
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 3: other six and two team tied to top the division.

700
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 3: But maybe the Chargers lose a game, maybe I get

701
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 3: a little better value, or maybe they just have another

702
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 3: clunker or two, and I don't want it on the bet.

703
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 3: So I do like the Chargers here. It's funny, this

704
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 3: division looks so solid and we were wondering what they

705
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 3: get two teams, three teams. Could all four teams get in,

706
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 3: We could end up with one team still like we're

707
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 3: probably too I don't know, So let's talk about the

708
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 3: wild card. So assuming that those top six teams get in,

709
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 3: that means the Bengals and Ravens that means the Titans,

710
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 3: the Bills, and then for now the Raiders and the Chargers.

711
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 3: So here are your other options. Then we don't have

712
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 3: playoff odds yet. But I'm curious if there's any of

713
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 3: these teams, Browns, Steelers, Chiefs, Colts, Broncos, or Patriots. Is

714
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 3: there any of those teams that one of those teams,

715
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 3: maybe two, but at least one makes the playoffs. Is

716
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 3: there anyone you'd be looking to play their chances to

717
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 3: make the playoffs at this point.

718
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 4: I think the best two teams on this list right

719
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 4: now are the Colts. Gonna go with the Chiefs. I'm

720
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 4: still gonna give the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt.

721
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 4: They're still beyond this one game against the Titans. They

722
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 4: are still one of the best offenses in the league,

723
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 4: and that's going to carry you far in today's NFL.

724
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 4: If you can outscore teams and they're brought four the

725
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 4: best offense, like, it's not even close. So I think

726
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 4: you've got to give them the fitted a doubt. They

727
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 4: laid the egg today, but like when you look at

728
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 4: some of these games that they lost, like they should

729
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:09,280
Speaker 4: have won the Baltimore game, even the game against the Chargers.

730
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 4: They turned the ball over at will, but they still

731
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 4: were ended in the fourth quarter. So the Chiefs are

732
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 4: going to challenge for a playoff position. And I think

733
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,360
Speaker 4: the Colts right now they're just playing really, really good football.

734
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 4: They have big win over to San Francisco forty nine ers,

735
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,399
Speaker 4: they should have beat Baltimore like I like the way

736
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 4: Carson Wentz is playing. He's cut out a lot of

737
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 4: the turnover worthy plays, and even tonight against San Francisco

738
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 4: he found a way to win ugly. So I really

739
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:35,399
Speaker 4: really liked this team. I think the Colts are gonna

740
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 4: make the playoffs.

741
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, which all you want the Colts too is they

742
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,879
Speaker 3: still play the Jaguars twice, they still get a Texans game,

743
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 3: They get the Jets a couple weeks from now, so

744
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 3: there's some winnable games on the schedule for sure.

745
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 2: We've talked about already.

746
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:49,919
Speaker 3: But the Colts play the Titans this week in Indianapolis,

747
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 3: and that is a monster game. So to me, I

748
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 3: like the Colts, but I think again back to me

749
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 3: being more aggressive here plus three twenty five to win

750
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 3: the division. They're two and a half games back right now,

751
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 3: two games, but they're down a tiebreak, you pretty much

752
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 3: have to win this week. You have to beat Tennessee.

753
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,840
Speaker 3: You can't follow another game back and clinch losing the

754
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:12,439
Speaker 3: tiebreaker to them. So that basically is a money line

755
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 3: play this week and then seeing what happens from there.

756
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,800
Speaker 3: But after the Titans game is the Jets and Jags.

757
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 3: So the way the Colts are playing, if they get

758
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 3: that one against Tennessee, suddenly you beat up on the

759
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 3: Jets and the Jaguars, You're looking at pretty good and

760
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 3: the schedule gets a lot tougher after that. But I

761
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,399
Speaker 3: do think Indianapolis is a good play here. I've got

762
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 3: my eye on Cleveland. I think if I had to

763
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 3: pick a team to make the wild card of that group,

764
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,240
Speaker 3: there's still a team that I feel decent, especially because

765
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 3: they could maybe pass one of those other AFC North

766
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:43,800
Speaker 3: teams still too and get there that way. But I

767
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 3: don't see real value to betting Cleveland right now, just

768
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 3: because we just don't know what the injuries like. I'm

769
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 3: gonna wait. I'm gonna wait and see. With the Browns,

770
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:55,360
Speaker 3: the line hasn't dropped enough for playoff odds. I'm still

771
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 3: not even giving up on, you know, big picture of stuff,

772
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,399
Speaker 3: AFC Super Bowl sort of thing. We're gonna need much

773
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 3: better from Baker Mayfield starting with We're gonna need him

774
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:07,280
Speaker 3: actually on the field. So I don't see much reason

775
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 3: to get my money in on Cleveland right now. I'm

776
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:11,919
Speaker 3: gonna have to just wait and see what happens with them.

777
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 3: So last thing here, let's zoom out for the big,

778
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 3: big picture. So who wins the AFC. We've got those

779
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 3: three teams that are all tied for the one seed

780
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 3: that none of us saw coming. The Bills are favored here.

781
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 3: The Bills are at plus two hundred to win the AFC,

782
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 3: even though that they would be the four seed coming

783
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 3: out right now. Ravens four seventy five are next Titan

784
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 3: six hundred. Chiefs that plus seven hundred, still the fourth

785
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 3: favorite in the AFC, even though they are the eleven

786
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,280
Speaker 3: seed right now. So who do you like in the AFC?

787
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 3: Who would you bet on if you had to make

788
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 3: a play today?

789
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 4: Taking the charters? They plus I spoke earlier. They got

790
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:51,320
Speaker 4: Brandon Staley, and I think he's turned his team around.

791
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 4: They've proven that they can win these close games when

792
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 4: you did with the Charterers. You notice you've got to

793
00:36:56,160 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 4: stat this team on four dams, and unlike the Ravens

794
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 4: a couple of years ago, they have a quarterback who

795
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 4: really can get the ball out and do some damage,

796
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:07,799
Speaker 4: and I think that's scary to deal with offensively. They're

797
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 4: one of the most complete teams on both sides of

798
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 4: the ball, other than the Buffalo Bills. Obviously the Bills

799
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 4: should be favorite, but at plus two hundred, I don't

800
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 4: think you're getting any value. I just wouldn't want to

801
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 4: play that like at that price. The Chargers at plus

802
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:21,840
Speaker 4: eight hundred, I think there's plenty of value. And the

803
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 4: big thing for me with these futures is that I

804
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 4: want to leave myself some room to be able to

805
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 4: hedge it later they make the AFC Championship game. I

806
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 4: want to be able to say, you know what, can

807
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 4: I bet the other side and make a profit or

808
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 4: can I cash out of my wager and make a profit.

809
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 4: And I think at plus two hundred you don't really

810
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 4: get that opportunity. And I think that the Chargers are

811
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 4: next to the Bills, are the most complete team.

812
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that I am willing to take the

813
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:49,359
Speaker 3: two hundred on the Bills. They would have to be

814
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 3: my pick right now. I don't think that there's a

815
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 3: huge amount of value in it, but I do think

816
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 3: there's some. You know, we talked about this a lot.

817
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 3: The best way by far to win your conference they

818
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,360
Speaker 3: get to the Super is to be the one seed.

819
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 3: So to me, this is a question of who gets

820
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 3: the one seed, and looking at the schedules and the

821
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 3: teams in the mix, I think the Bills and the

822
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 3: Titans are the teams that are set up best to

823
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:11,800
Speaker 3: get the one seed.

824
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:13,399
Speaker 2: The Titans are tied for.

825
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 3: The one seed right now, and they just got big

826
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:17,320
Speaker 3: tie break wins over the Bills and the Chiefs. The

827
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 3: Chiefs might not necessarily be a tiebreak at this point.

828
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 3: Tennessee has a crazy soft schedule coming up. They've got

829
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 3: that whole division once they If they can win this

830
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:29,839
Speaker 3: Colts game this week, they basically win the division at

831
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 3: that point, like it nearly locked up. They still get

832
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 3: to play Houston twice, they still have Jacksonville, They've got

833
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 3: a super soft schedule.

834
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 2: They got Miami coming up that looks really easy.

835
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 3: It's possible that the Titans have zero teams left against

836
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 3: a playoff team. They could not play another playoff opponent

837
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 3: until the actual playoffs.

838
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 2: So the Titans are set up well, but I believe

839
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 2: in the Bills.

840
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:53,839
Speaker 3: This is the time if you like the Bills, this

841
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 3: is the moment, I think, because you take advantage of

842
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 3: all this momentum for all these other teams and the

843
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 3: spot where the Bills lost that game against Tennessee, I.

844
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 2: Think it's provided a little value.

845
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 3: There next three games for the Bills, Dolphins, Jaguars, Jets.

846
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 3: That's three wins. The Bills are winning those games, so

847
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 3: they've been destroying these bad teams. So suddenly the Bills

848
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:16,840
Speaker 3: are going to be WHOA right back way out ahead

849
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 3: their favorite now, but they're going to be I think

850
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 3: even closer to even odds at that point, especially if

851
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 3: the Titans stumble or some of these other teams fall

852
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:24,280
Speaker 3: a little further.

853
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 2: The Bills, I think, only have one.

854
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,319
Speaker 3: Playoff game left on the schedule, a playoff opponent that's

855
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 3: the Bucks. So Josh Allen four fifty MVP, this could

856
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 3: be your spot for him.

857
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 2: I still like Brady.

858
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:38,880
Speaker 3: I think I would rather play once it opens in

859
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 3: numbers similar to this for the Bills just to be

860
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 3: the one seed rather than being the one seed and

861
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 3: then still having to win two more games. But I

862
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 3: like the value a little bit. I don't think it's

863
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:52,840
Speaker 3: a slam dunk here. I still't love everyone else in

864
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 3: the AFC. The Bills are the one team that I'm

865
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:58,320
Speaker 3: actually pretty confident is good in going to win games.

866
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 3: So I almost wonder is the move just betting on

867
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 3: the NFC to win the Super Bowl? Because in the NFC,

868
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 3: I get the Bucks, I get the Cowboys, the Rams,

869
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 3: the Cardinals, the Packers, those are all possible Super Bowl winners.

870
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,240
Speaker 2: In the AFC, I got the Bills.

871
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 3: Like who else in the AFC do you really truly

872
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 3: think can win the Super Bowl at this moment in time.

873
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 3: Don't know if there is anyone else, there's anyone for you.

874
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 3: I think the Chargers can win Super and I think

875
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,360
Speaker 3: the Chargers can win the Super Bowl, but that relies

876
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 3: on them winning four games because they're not going to

877
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 3: be the one seed in all likelihood, and like this

878
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 3: has been a very volatile team. They're gonna have a

879
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 3: lot of those fourth down conversions and a lot of

880
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 3: moments to come through, and they have so far. I

881
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 3: think they can, but I would put them, you know,

882
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 3: a tier below these other teams. So NFC is minus

883
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 3: one point thirty to win the Super Bowl. I think

884
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 3: there could be some value there, just because we're seeing

885
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 3: a clear power group of five in the NFC and

886
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 3: the AFC just looks open, especially if you don't like

887
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 3: the This is a spot for you to grab.

888
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 2: Whoever your sleeper is, this is your moment. I think.

889
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 3: All right, let's whip around the rest of our Sunday

890
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 3: action and wrap up Week seven. The Packers coasted to

891
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 3: a six straight win and covered twenty four to ten

892
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 3: against Washington. Tough luck for Washington. Betters football team had

893
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 3: the ball inside the thirty seven times, but converted that

894
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 3: into ten points thanks to interception, a block, field goal,

895
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:27,720
Speaker 3: and three turnovers on downs. Dolphins had two touchdowns late

896
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 3: to take the lead, but the Falcons drove for the

897
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 3: winning field goal in our only close game of the day,

898
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 3: thirty to twenty eight. Atlanta covered if you played today,

899
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 3: Miami covered if you played earlier. That line was right

900
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 3: around the two points spread there, So have to see

901
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:44,800
Speaker 3: which line you got, Sam Darnold, you got benched for

902
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 3: pj oh Walker. It is ugly in Carolina. The Giants

903
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:51,359
Speaker 3: rolled twenty five to three, and pretty much the only

904
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 3: other interesting thing from this game is that it was

905
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:56,280
Speaker 3: stuck at five to three for like forty five minutes,

906
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 3: which you know, why not. The Lions came out guns

907
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:03,200
Speaker 3: blazing with a touchdown on side recovery, a fake punt,

908
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 3: another field goal to go up ten nothing. It all

909
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 3: looked good, and then the Rams got the ball and

910
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 3: they eventually won. Big day for Matthew Stafford against his

911
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:14,839
Speaker 3: old team, another huge Cooper Cup line. Lines did cover,

912
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 3: but the Rams won twenty eight nineteen. Justin Fields had

913
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:23,359
Speaker 3: five turnovers. The Bucks crushed the Bears thirty eight to three.

914
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 2: Rough one.

915
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 3: If you bet the over here thirty eight points at

916
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 3: the half over forty seven, you're feeling pretty good. Three

917
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,880
Speaker 3: points the whole second half. Sorry about that one, Tom Brady.

918
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 3: Four more touchdowns, still quietly just hanging around that MVP race,

919
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 3: first quarterback in history with six hundred passing touchdowns and

920
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 3: scoregami in the desert as Arizona beat Houston thirty one

921
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 3: to five. The Texans actually led this one of five

922
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,759
Speaker 3: nothing early in the second quarter, and then then scr agan.

923
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 3: They had eight first downs and three point three yards

924
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 3: per play. All right, let's hear a quick word from

925
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:00,239
Speaker 3: our sponsor and get to Monday Night Football.

926
00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:06,840
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927
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944
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945
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955
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 5: much for listening. Let's get back to the show all right.

956
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 3: Monday Night in Seattle, a second straight primetime game, No

957
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson. We got Gino Smith back to back primetime games.

958
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 3: The New Orleans Saints are on the road four and

959
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:53,720
Speaker 3: a half point favorites. Seattle is a plus one ninety

960
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 3: five money line underdog at home. This total is out

961
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 3: forty two and a half. We talked about this game

962
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:01,799
Speaker 3: already earlier in the week, so I think I know

963
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 3: where you're looking at.

964
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:02,919
Speaker 2: This one.

965
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 4: But are you still on New Orleans here? I'm still

966
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 4: in New Orleans. Look, I'm not a big trends guy,

967
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 4: but since nineteen ninety nine, road favorites coming off of

968
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 4: buy are eighty three, forty two and two. Against the spread,

969
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 4: they're ninety seven and thirty seven straight up Saints. This

970
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 4: is a perfect spot for their matchup against the Seahawks.

971
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:26,400
Speaker 4: Look Seahs down. I know they had a solid performance

972
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 4: in Week six and their loss of Stillers. They came

973
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 4: back from fourteen zero halftime definsitve tide of game to

974
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 4: take it into overtime. But Gino Smith, he had an

975
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 4: air yards of just three point four yards. So they're

976
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 4: not passing the ball down the field. They're gonna be

977
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 4: relying on a running the ball against the Saints defense,

978
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 4: which is second in rush defense dboa eighth in Russian

979
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 4: success rate, allowing just forty three point seven percent of

980
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 4: running plays to be successful this season. I said it before,

981
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 4: I'm pricing the loss of Russell Woopson. Gino Smith is

982
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,360
Speaker 4: probably one of the big dropoffs we'll see from a

983
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 4: starting quarterback to a backup quarterback in the NFL, and

984
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:05,240
Speaker 4: I think it's gonna.

985
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:06,800
Speaker 1: Rear as ugly head in this matchup.

986
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 4: Seahawks are still a really bad defense to twenty second

987
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,840
Speaker 4: in defensive DV away. They benefited from a favorable schedule

988
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 4: of opposing offenses outside of the Titans, Vikens and Rams.

989
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 1: Look the Seahawks.

990
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,760
Speaker 4: They opened the season against Carson Wentz and his first

991
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 4: start with the Colts, and he didn't practice during the preseason.

992
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 4: He just got thrown into the fire, so that was

993
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 4: an advantage for them. Then they played a four to

994
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 4: nine team that lost Jimmy Garoppolo mid game and then

995
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:36,359
Speaker 4: had to turn to a rookie Tray Lance. Then they

996
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:39,800
Speaker 4: played the Stills with the old, flabby and sick Larry

997
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 4: Holmes status Ben roethlis Worker, And while Ben Roethlisberger didn't

998
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:46,839
Speaker 4: take advantage of this defense, that's thirty first and drop

999
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:51,839
Speaker 4: back success rate. I'm confident that Jameis Winston will And

1000
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 4: I know Jameis Winston's turnover prone, but you could look

1001
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:57,479
Speaker 4: at some of his games and see he can throw

1002
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 4: that rock around. Look at his game against the Washington

1003
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 4: football team. They have a bad defense. He carved them up.

1004
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:05,359
Speaker 4: And I think it's a big game. I'm khmarat big game.

1005
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:07,879
Speaker 4: From Jameis Winston. I'm taking a Saints at minus four

1006
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:08,360
Speaker 4: and ahead.

1007
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 2: You know what's really interesting about this game?

1008
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:12,959
Speaker 3: This feels like such a garbage game that is really

1009
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 3: tough to get excited for.

1010
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:16,880
Speaker 2: You go by DVA. This is a top ten matchup.

1011
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 3: The Saints entered the weekend number eight and DVA, the

1012
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 3: Seahawks number nine and DVA Saints Seahawks. Here we go

1013
00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:27,320
Speaker 3: playoff preview. Yeah, it doesn't feel that way. Obviously, the Seahawks.

1014
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:27,800
Speaker 2: Number nine DVA.

1015
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 3: That's counting all those Russell Wilson games, so there's a

1016
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 3: bit of an asterisk on that. But it doesn't feel

1017
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 3: like a great game. It should be interesting one. The

1018
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:38,719
Speaker 3: Seahawks offense has been their strength. The Saints defense has

1019
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:42,160
Speaker 3: been theirs. I think, to me, you hit the nail

1020
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 3: on the head. I agree with everything you said. Seattle's

1021
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:48,360
Speaker 3: pass defense very poor, very just open for the taking.

1022
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 3: And this is on Jameis Winston. The difference is you're

1023
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:55,200
Speaker 3: betting on him. I'm betting against him. Because you mentioned

1024
00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 3: the trends. We've talked about this as well. Jamis Winston

1025
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 3: as a favorite eight seventeen and one lifetime against the

1026
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:05,919
Speaker 3: spread thirty two percent, so you got more than two

1027
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 3: out of three times where Jamis doesn't cover the spread. Also,

1028
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:13,840
Speaker 3: in those games only fourteen and twelve straight up. So basically,

1029
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 3: anytime you say, okay, Jamis, you're the guy, is a

1030
00:48:16,920 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 3: coin flip. It's a coin flip on will Jamis the

1031
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 3: favorite come through? And that's the thing for me in

1032
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 3: this game is it's Gino Smith and it's Jamis Winston,

1033
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:28,880
Speaker 3: who are two of the most erratic all over the

1034
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:31,239
Speaker 3: place guys. I have no idea what's going to happen

1035
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:34,320
Speaker 3: in this game. Could the Seahawks win by twenty five?

1036
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 2: Sure?

1037
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:37,279
Speaker 3: Could the Saints win thirty eight to three like they

1038
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 3: did in an opener against the Packers.

1039
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:41,399
Speaker 2: Absolutely, could be a blowout. Could it be a field

1040
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:42,439
Speaker 2: goal game? Could it be close?

1041
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 3: Get You could tell me any script that came out

1042
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 3: of this game. And because Jamis and Gino are the quarterbacks,

1043
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 3: I would believe it that, like everything is in play.

1044
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 3: So to me, that's the reason that I gotta take

1045
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:56,640
Speaker 3: the Seahawks here. It's just a numbers play. Four and

1046
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:58,919
Speaker 3: a half is a lot of points. I'm gonna nibble

1047
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:01,239
Speaker 3: a little bit on the plus one nine five. I

1048
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:03,560
Speaker 3: definitely don't like the Seahawks. I don't like that I

1049
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 3: keep playing them, but the numbers force me to here

1050
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:09,200
Speaker 3: at plus one ninety five. Basically, you're saying that the

1051
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:10,840
Speaker 3: Seahawks only have to win this game one out of

1052
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 3: three times in order to make good on that number.

1053
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:16,200
Speaker 3: And I just think, given the huge array of outcomes

1054
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,840
Speaker 3: that could happen in this game, I just don't trust Jamis.

1055
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:22,359
Speaker 3: He is the guy Seattle's defense is open. Jamis could

1056
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 3: have a huge game. He could make me look stupid,

1057
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:26,080
Speaker 3: but he can make either one of us look stupid

1058
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 3: with our money. It's a tough guy to have your

1059
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:31,400
Speaker 3: money on. In our system at Action Labs, only Chad

1060
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 3: Henny and Jake Cutler are more profitable to fade when

1061
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 3: they're the favorite. So I don't think we need to

1062
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 3: say how we feel about Chad Henny.

1063
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:38,280
Speaker 2: And Ja Culor.

1064
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:40,759
Speaker 3: But if Jamis is in that group, I'm willing to

1065
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:43,399
Speaker 3: go against him Monday at football. He's zero and two

1066
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:46,840
Speaker 3: against the spread both times as a favorite. So this

1067
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 3: is just a numbers play. It's in anything goes. So

1068
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:52,360
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna take the points, take the two to

1069
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:53,839
Speaker 3: one that I'm getting in the money line.

1070
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 2: And just see what comes of it.

1071
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 4: I'm not mad at it. I mean, we'll see what happens.

1072
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,160
Speaker 4: Made the best man win. May the best man win that.

1073
00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 4: The Seahawks are one thing to note here. If the

1074
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:06,600
Speaker 4: Saints do get the lead early, the Seahawks are number

1075
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 4: two on DVUA in the first half and number sixty

1076
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 4: in the second half, and then number twenty seven and

1077
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 4: it's late and close. So if you want, if you're

1078
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 4: gonna play Seattle here, you better hope that they come

1079
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 4: out looking good early because if they fall behind this one,

1080
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 4: you know, it could get ugly. I think either of

1081
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 4: these teams, if they fall behind, it could get a

1082
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 4: little ugly. I know Alvin Kamara has been good, but

1083
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 4: his metrics aren't that good this year.

1084
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 2: To me, this is a Jamis game.

1085
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:30,799
Speaker 3: So this is just going to be a test of

1086
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:35,279
Speaker 3: are the Saints actually a wildcard contender? Their defense is

1087
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:37,720
Speaker 3: still good enough. Michael Thomas will be back soon.

1088
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:39,240
Speaker 2: You just need.

1089
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:41,880
Speaker 3: Jamis to show up, and he has to win a

1090
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 3: game like this if they're going to be there. So

1091
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 3: it's a good, good test, litmus test to see where

1092
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:49,719
Speaker 3: this team goes. All right, let's get to our Week

1093
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 3: eight hot Read and get you out here.

1094
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:56,840
Speaker 5: Hot rap bo severyday on ice right ice cream.

1095
00:50:58,760 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 1: Nineteen.

1096
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 3: You guys have got to be playing our hot red

1097
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 3: and look aheads. On Friday, we gave you the Cincinnati

1098
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:09,560
Speaker 3: Bengals look ahead. The Bengals were minus three and a

1099
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 3: half against the Jets. It is now minus nine and

1100
00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:15,320
Speaker 3: a half. We haven't played any games yet, we have

1101
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 3: a whole week to move still, and you have six

1102
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:20,560
Speaker 3: points of value on that line. So rest assured. Neither

1103
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:22,040
Speaker 3: one of us is going with that game today.

1104
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:24,360
Speaker 2: Who do you like? Rahim? For your first hot Reads?

1105
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:26,000
Speaker 4: I want to say I gave you guys the Washington

1106
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 4: football team plus four and a half. That's down to

1107
00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:30,440
Speaker 4: plus three and a half. But the first game I'm

1108
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:33,719
Speaker 4: going to go with is the Dallas Cowboys minus one

1109
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:35,719
Speaker 4: and a half. Look the look ahead lot on this

1110
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:38,040
Speaker 4: game was Dallas Cowboys minus two and a half. And

1111
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 4: we're sitting at a consensus one and a half two

1112
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:43,319
Speaker 4: within the market, which means that we've seen a Cowboys

1113
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:47,359
Speaker 4: power rating to decrease during their bow week. Now, I

1114
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 4: know Dak Prescott was dealing with the cap injury, but

1115
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:52,759
Speaker 4: he had a bide week to rest at all so

1116
00:51:53,520 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 4: playing against the Minnesota Viking team that's also coming off

1117
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:57,520
Speaker 4: of BIE week, so I don't see why this power

1118
00:51:57,600 --> 00:52:01,880
Speaker 4: rating has changed. My model actually makes this game Cowboys

1119
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:04,160
Speaker 4: minus three minus three and a half. I know the

1120
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:06,480
Speaker 4: Cowboys are a perfect six and zer against the spread

1121
00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:11,240
Speaker 4: this season, and given that this is an efficient betting market,

1122
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:12,719
Speaker 4: I expect to see some.

1123
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 1: Correction throughout the market.

1124
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 4: So they were a team that I was initially looking

1125
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:19,360
Speaker 4: to fade as they come from the six to ozho stretch,

1126
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:21,640
Speaker 4: but this isn't the spot to do it. These two

1127
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:25,359
Speaker 4: teams are completely different classes. This Cowboys team is first

1128
00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:27,799
Speaker 4: and scoring offense, scoring thirty four point two points per game.

1129
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 4: Their second and success rate fifth and EPA play. Nobody's

1130
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 4: been ever to slow down this this Cowboys offense, and

1131
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 4: I don't see that stopping against this Vikings team, which

1132
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:38,759
Speaker 4: is twenty eighth in defensive rushing efficiency, and given the

1133
00:52:38,800 --> 00:52:42,600
Speaker 4: two back combination of Ezekiel Ellie and Tony Power, I

1134
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:43,600
Speaker 4: don't see them stopping them.

1135
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:44,359
Speaker 1: The Vikings give it up.

1136
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 4: Four point eight yards to carry as fit worse among

1137
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:51,320
Speaker 4: all NFL teams, So look for big days from Elliet

1138
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:53,400
Speaker 4: and Power, and I think when you open things up

1139
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:56,239
Speaker 4: and prescott through the air. The Vikes will have a

1140
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 4: tough time slowing down this offense. And you look at

1141
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 4: this vice. They've made everything tough, like there's nothing been easy.

1142
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 4: They struggled to stop the Lions and Crunch Time and

1143
00:53:06,719 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 4: let them back into a game. They struggled to stop

1144
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:10,720
Speaker 4: the Panthers in Crunchtown.

1145
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 1: They let them back in the game and had to

1146
00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:13,320
Speaker 1: play an overtime game.

1147
00:53:13,840 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 4: And even though if Vikers have plenty of weapons of

1148
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:21,880
Speaker 4: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook, this unit is

1149
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:26,239
Speaker 4: just so conservative and I just think Mike Zimmer is

1150
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:28,879
Speaker 4: kind of in over his head with this team right now.

1151
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 4: I make this line three, so it minus one and

1152
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:33,840
Speaker 4: a half. I gotta take the Cowboys. I expect this

1153
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:36,239
Speaker 4: number to get pushed up to the Cowboys and we

1154
00:53:36,280 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 4: can make a decision later if we want to buy

1155
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:41,040
Speaker 4: back and try to middle this game. Maybe take Minnesota

1156
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:43,279
Speaker 4: later at three. But under a filder, I'm taking the

1157
00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:43,880
Speaker 4: better team.

1158
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:46,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, you buried the lead on this one. This is

1159
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 3: the Brandon versus Rahiem game of the season. Next week.

1160
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:52,239
Speaker 3: These are our teams. This is the Sunday Night game.

1161
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 3: So this will be interesting. We will be a podcasting

1162
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:58,840
Speaker 3: right after this one gets over next week, so I

1163
00:53:58,880 --> 00:54:00,920
Speaker 3: think one of us may have a jersey on in

1164
00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:04,360
Speaker 3: our podcast for this one. But yeah, the line feels

1165
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:06,759
Speaker 3: off to me. Mike McCarthy, I think is eleven to

1166
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:08,840
Speaker 3: two and a one against the spread coming off of

1167
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 3: a bye week, so you know, the Vikings are good

1168
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 3: off bye week. Mike Zimmer at home has been strong

1169
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 3: as well, so the trends in both directions, but these

1170
00:54:17,040 --> 00:54:19,399
Speaker 3: teams don't feel even so far. The Cowboys have been

1171
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:23,839
Speaker 3: very good, so definitely we'll say as a Vikings fan

1172
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:27,040
Speaker 3: that I'm not necessarily planning on having my jersey ready

1173
00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 3: to go next Sunday night, but I will hope for

1174
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:31,520
Speaker 3: the best. So I'm going to go with we talked

1175
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:33,480
Speaker 3: about the NFS or the Sorry we talked about the

1176
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 3: AFC North earlier. I'm going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers

1177
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:40,360
Speaker 3: plus three and a half on the road in Cleveland.

1178
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:44,279
Speaker 3: So the last time these teams played was in the

1179
00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 3: playoffs and the Browns embarrassed the Steelers forty eight to

1180
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:50,800
Speaker 3: thirty seven. They blew out the first quarter and the

1181
00:54:50,840 --> 00:54:52,240
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh kind of made it closer.

1182
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:54,560
Speaker 2: Later they had won two weeks in a row.

1183
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:56,839
Speaker 3: They had one week seventeen as well, the no Big Ben,

1184
00:54:56,960 --> 00:54:59,440
Speaker 3: that one kind of meaningless game still got the win,

1185
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:04,200
Speaker 3: not meaning for Cleveland. Before that, the Browns have been

1186
00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 3: absolutely owned by the Steelers. Steelers thirty one out of

1187
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:11,399
Speaker 3: the thirty six games before that had won, had won

1188
00:55:11,440 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 3: those games. Big Ben is twenty three to two and

1189
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:17,520
Speaker 3: one lifetime against Cleveland. His last regular season lost to

1190
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:20,239
Speaker 3: this team was twenty fourteen, back when Big Ben was

1191
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 3: still good. In fact, so also I noticed this week

1192
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:27,080
Speaker 3: Stefanski is zero to six against the spread in the

1193
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:30,839
Speaker 3: division as good as Cleveland was last year, lost all

1194
00:55:30,920 --> 00:55:34,120
Speaker 3: six of those against the spread. Mike Tomlin as an underdog,

1195
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:36,759
Speaker 3: Big Ben as an underdog, this is their spot. This

1196
00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:39,200
Speaker 3: is where you want to back the Steelers. Tomlin is

1197
00:55:39,239 --> 00:55:41,799
Speaker 3: forty and twenty against the spread as a dog. He's

1198
00:55:41,800 --> 00:55:44,520
Speaker 3: got over five hundred records straight up as an underdog.

1199
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:47,920
Speaker 3: Same with Big Ben obviously, since most of those are together.

1200
00:55:48,520 --> 00:55:52,120
Speaker 3: So Big Ben as a short underdog three points or

1201
00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:54,600
Speaker 3: less if it gets there, twenty four and twelve straight

1202
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 3: up forty nine percent ROI, so that is massive, and

1203
00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 3: has won seven of the last eight in that spot.

1204
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 2: So I want to grab the Steelers here at three

1205
00:56:02,440 --> 00:56:02,960
Speaker 2: and a half.

1206
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 3: I'm grabbing in the hot read because I think that

1207
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:08,400
Speaker 3: this line probably settles at three feels like kind of

1208
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 3: just one of those All right, let's just keep the

1209
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:12,319
Speaker 3: line right at three and see what happens. I think

1210
00:56:12,360 --> 00:56:14,840
Speaker 3: that's a mistake giving us dexter half point here to

1211
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:17,759
Speaker 3: get the hook. So I'm gonna grab the Steelers and

1212
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 3: might add more to it later depending on where the

1213
00:56:20,120 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 3: line goes.

1214
00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:23,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I really like that, and I think it's it's

1215
00:56:23,000 --> 00:56:25,480
Speaker 4: a perfect spot that actually catch the Browns with them dealing.

1216
00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:27,040
Speaker 1: With us with so many injuries, So I like that.

1217
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:27,480
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1218
00:56:27,520 --> 00:56:29,880
Speaker 3: That's the thing too, is like with all the with

1219
00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 3: all the Browns injuries, it's not like we're suddenly going

1220
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:34,279
Speaker 3: to get to this week and be like, oh hey

1221
00:56:34,320 --> 00:56:35,239
Speaker 3: everyone's healthy again.

1222
00:56:35,320 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 2: We're ready to go.

1223
00:56:36,520 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 3: Like if anything, the line moves toward Pittsburgh because we

1224
00:56:39,520 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 3: started to get some injury news of guys who are out.

1225
00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 3: So that's why I want to grab this one early too.

1226
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 3: What's your other peck?

1227
00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:47,080
Speaker 4: My second one, I'm gonna go with the Washington football

1228
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:50,399
Speaker 4: team again. Look, they took some really sharp money within

1229
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:54,080
Speaker 4: the market. This week. They were plus ten, it got

1230
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:57,560
Speaker 4: bet down to minus seven, and when you actually looked

1231
00:56:57,560 --> 00:56:59,799
Speaker 4: at this game, it's probably one of the most misleading

1232
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:03,319
Speaker 4: box scores you'll ever see. The Washington football team. I'll

1233
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 4: gain the Packers by one hundred and thirty yards. I'll

1234
00:57:08,600 --> 00:57:12,120
Speaker 4: gained them in yards per play. But they really struggled

1235
00:57:12,120 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 4: because they were zero for four in the red zone

1236
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:19,600
Speaker 4: and they had drives to the Packers twenty four, twenty seven, one, three, twelve,

1237
00:57:20,080 --> 00:57:23,600
Speaker 4: and twenty seven. They had three combined points out of those,

1238
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:28,040
Speaker 4: Like that doesn't happen. And this Denver Broncos team is

1239
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 4: in a world of trouble. They've been dealing with injuries.

1240
00:57:30,480 --> 00:57:33,400
Speaker 4: Outside of their first few games where they basically played

1241
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:37,600
Speaker 4: the Giants the Jaguars, they haven't done anything. They haven't

1242
00:57:37,600 --> 00:57:39,880
Speaker 4: impressed me, Like, who is this Broncos team to be

1243
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 4: laying three and a half points. I gave it to

1244
00:57:41,680 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 4: you at plus four and a half on Friday. It's

1245
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:45,960
Speaker 4: down three and a half. You're giving me that book,

1246
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 4: it's extremely valuable. Washington football team had three fourth down

1247
00:57:50,480 --> 00:57:52,920
Speaker 4: failures this week. I don't see that happening against this

1248
00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:56,280
Speaker 4: Broncos team that got carved up by case Keenum. They

1249
00:57:56,280 --> 00:57:59,040
Speaker 4: got carved up by David Carr. I'm taking a Washington

1250
00:57:59,040 --> 00:57:59,600
Speaker 4: football team.

1251
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:02,840
Speaker 3: We like that hook, and my other play is another

1252
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:05,160
Speaker 3: one of those three and a half lines at hook here,

1253
00:58:05,720 --> 00:58:08,480
Speaker 3: I was thinking about taking Seattle. I talked about how

1254
00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 3: Seattle has kind of been a little better than we're

1255
00:58:10,040 --> 00:58:12,720
Speaker 3: giving them credit for Sete's home against Jacksonville.

1256
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:14,960
Speaker 2: But at minus three, I like that one.

1257
00:58:15,000 --> 00:58:16,800
Speaker 3: It's starting to disappear to three and a half or

1258
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:18,800
Speaker 3: four if you can still find a three, I like

1259
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 3: that one. Instead, I'm going to go with the Green

1260
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:25,400
Speaker 3: Bay Packers plus three and a half in Arizona. It's

1261
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 3: our Thursday night game, big good Thursday night game this week.

1262
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 3: And it's basically the same argument here. I'm taking the hook.

1263
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:34,440
Speaker 3: While it's there, it's not gonna stay there. This is

1264
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:36,720
Speaker 3: going to be a three point line. We're gonna just

1265
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:40,320
Speaker 3: see what happened on this game. Aaron Rodgers, you we're

1266
00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:43,760
Speaker 3: giving a chance. Aaron Rodgers as an underdog. Aaron Rodgers

1267
00:58:43,800 --> 00:58:46,400
Speaker 3: is eight and eleven straight up when he's an underdog

1268
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:48,919
Speaker 3: of three and a half or more points, and he's

1269
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:50,560
Speaker 3: won the last five times.

1270
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:50,960
Speaker 2: In that spot.

1271
00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:53,120
Speaker 3: We already had one earlier this season against the forty

1272
00:58:53,200 --> 00:58:55,760
Speaker 3: nine Ers. The other thing I saw too looking this up,

1273
00:58:56,240 --> 00:58:59,360
Speaker 3: Rodgers has never ever been an underdog more than seven

1274
00:58:59,360 --> 00:59:01,920
Speaker 3: and a half points, which is pretty remarkable. I mean,

1275
00:59:01,960 --> 00:59:05,840
Speaker 3: it just shows how great that he's been. So Yeah,

1276
00:59:06,040 --> 00:59:07,960
Speaker 3: both of these teams are teams we've talked about wanting

1277
00:59:08,000 --> 00:59:09,959
Speaker 3: to fade a little bit. I don't have a huge

1278
00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 3: amount of faith in the Packers, but I don't have

1279
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:13,880
Speaker 3: a huge amount of faith still in the Cardinals. They're

1280
00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:16,040
Speaker 3: winning me over certainly a little bit more each week.

1281
00:59:16,360 --> 00:59:19,200
Speaker 3: Green Bay's run defense is the weak spot, and so

1282
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 3: I don't think that the Cardinals can necessarily hurt them

1283
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 3: in a huge way there. I just like the Packers

1284
00:59:24,080 --> 00:59:25,760
Speaker 3: to hang around. This feels like a field goal game.

1285
00:59:25,800 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 3: It feels like a who has the ball late and

1286
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 3: who has the ball last, who makes the field goal

1287
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:33,240
Speaker 3: at the end of the game. So I have to

1288
00:59:33,320 --> 00:59:35,520
Speaker 3: like the three and a half here plus one sixty

1289
00:59:35,600 --> 00:59:37,439
Speaker 3: money line. Am I look at that as well. I'm

1290
00:59:37,440 --> 00:59:39,760
Speaker 3: guessing both of those come down a little bit. I

1291
00:59:39,800 --> 00:59:41,640
Speaker 3: just want to give Rogers a chance. I think both

1292
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:44,480
Speaker 3: these teams are a little bit worse than what we

1293
00:59:44,560 --> 00:59:45,720
Speaker 3: think by their records.

1294
00:59:45,800 --> 00:59:48,400
Speaker 2: But the Packers at the last two years.

1295
00:59:48,080 --> 00:59:50,480
Speaker 3: Thirteen and three both years and now this year, they've

1296
00:59:50,680 --> 00:59:52,560
Speaker 3: lost the first one and then they've won and covered

1297
00:59:52,600 --> 00:59:55,160
Speaker 3: six in a row week after week. It's like, oh,

1298
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:57,000
Speaker 3: the Packers have done it again. How do they get

1299
00:59:57,040 --> 00:59:59,200
Speaker 3: the call? How did Rogers come through? At some point

1300
00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 3: you just have to trust happening. So I'm trusting. I'm

1301
01:00:01,680 --> 01:00:04,080
Speaker 3: gonna take Rogers. Gave me Rodgers in the three and

1302
01:00:04,120 --> 01:00:06,360
Speaker 3: a half on the road, and we'll see if they

1303
01:00:06,400 --> 01:00:08,040
Speaker 3: can take down our last unbeaten team.

1304
01:00:08,560 --> 01:00:08,920
Speaker 2: Oh yeah.

1305
01:00:09,200 --> 01:00:11,800
Speaker 4: Honestly, I've been looking for spots to fake Arizona Cardinals

1306
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:15,200
Speaker 4: for a while. They hasn't necessarily gone my way, but

1307
01:00:15,880 --> 01:00:19,040
Speaker 4: I think this might be the spot. And obviously Kyler

1308
01:00:19,120 --> 01:00:21,640
Speaker 4: Murray has been banged up a little bit, so at

1309
01:00:21,680 --> 01:00:23,400
Speaker 4: the bare minimum, the Packers.

1310
01:00:23,080 --> 01:00:24,200
Speaker 1: Should be able to cover this game.

1311
01:00:24,600 --> 01:00:26,160
Speaker 2: I like the cover for sure, So I think that's

1312
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:27,600
Speaker 2: the play for now. All right.

1313
01:00:27,640 --> 01:00:28,960
Speaker 3: That is going to wrap it up today at the

1314
01:00:28,960 --> 01:00:32,160
Speaker 3: Action Network podcast. Make sure to your right subscribe and reviews.

1315
01:00:32,200 --> 01:00:35,640
Speaker 3: Stucky and Raybon are back Wednesday with their betting six pack.

1316
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 3: In preview, Raheem and I are back Friday for our

1317
01:00:38,520 --> 01:00:41,560
Speaker 3: usual run through the slate and the look ahead. Make

1318
01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:44,840
Speaker 3: sure also to check out the Buckets podcast on the

1319
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:49,560
Speaker 3: Action Network podcast network. The NBA season launched last week.

1320
01:00:49,640 --> 01:00:51,960
Speaker 3: Raheem and I and our team are coming to you

1321
01:00:52,040 --> 01:00:55,240
Speaker 3: four times a week all season, covering all things NBA,

1322
01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:58,280
Speaker 3: fantasy betting, all the drama on and off the court,

1323
01:00:58,560 --> 01:01:01,120
Speaker 3: So make sure to get the Buckets feed onto your

1324
01:01:01,200 --> 01:01:05,200
Speaker 3: podcast wherever you download. For Raheem Palmer, I'm Brandon Anderson

1325
01:01:05,240 --> 01:01:07,400
Speaker 3: and this has been the Action Network podcast.

1326
01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:09,080
Speaker 2: We are on every week tak