1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:05,400 Speaker 1: read enough? 3 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 2: They're up for running a game so smooth, so sweet. 4 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 1: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution. 5 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four 6 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time. How shut with that shot? 7 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 2: With fine? Good buddy, And that's why you see your 8 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 2: beautiful Tias. Look at his movements, the most dangerous a 9 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 2: mount of the planet. 10 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 1: Nobody picture them. 11 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying the wove. 12 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 1: It's left to one of the white eyed, drilled bibus. 13 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 2: How old earth did that happened? 14 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 4: Hello everyone, and welcome back to Wondergul, the soccer betting 15 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leebuff 16 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 4: and joining me for this our Champions League Futures preview 17 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 4: episode is BJ Cunningham and our old friend Anthony Debundo 18 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 4: of The Ringer, and together the three of us are 19 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 4: going to go through a big picture preview of the 20 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 4: Champions League. Give out our favorite futures bets. To win 21 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 4: it all, to finish between ninth at twenty fourth, to 22 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 4: finish at the bottom of the league phase, to qualify 23 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 4: from the league phase. All that it's a brand new 24 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 4: era for the Champions League. I think it's a little confusing. 25 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 4: We'll try our best to suss it out, I should 26 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 4: say confusing from a betting perspective. But we'll get through 27 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 4: all of it. But before we get into it, let's 28 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 4: just quickly take a look at the odds. Why don't 29 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 4: you know Manchester City are the clear favorite at plus 30 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 4: two hundred. Then it's Real Madrid at plus three fifty, 31 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 4: Arsenal third favorite, eight to one. Then it's Bayern at 32 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 4: twelve to one, along with Barcelona Liverpool right behind them 33 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 4: fourteen to one, PSG twenty to one, Inter Milan twenty 34 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 4: five to one, Bayer Leverkusen twenty five to one. They 35 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 4: just had their first loss in a very long time 36 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 4: in the Bundesliga. Over the weekend, our old favorites Atletico 37 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,920 Speaker 4: Madrid are twenty five to one as well, so are Dortmund, 38 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 4: Juve forty, AC Milan forty, Atlanta fifty to one, Aston 39 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 4: Villa sixty six to one. Then we get into triple 40 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 4: digits with RB Leipzig, Sporting and Lil at one hundred 41 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 4: and one. So has Benfica, Monaco, PSV Einthoven one hundred 42 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 4: and fifty to one. Stute card one hundred and fifty 43 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 4: to one fire nor two hundred to one, so Saltsburg 44 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 4: Bologna Girona, and then it's Celtic at two fifty to one. 45 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:40,679 Speaker 4: Then we'll cut it there right off the bat BJ. Now, 46 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 4: like I said, it is a new era in the 47 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 4: Champions League. All thirty six teams are put into one 48 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 4: league and you're drawn against certain opponents for home, four away. 49 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 4: Top eight automatically qualified for the round of sixteen. Then 50 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,839 Speaker 4: if you finish between ninth and twenty fourth, you play 51 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 4: in a playoff to then qualify for the round of sixteen. 52 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 4: Teams have finished in the bottom twelve are eliminated. Any 53 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 4: outrights jump out to you. 54 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: Well, it changes how you approach betting outrights, right, because 55 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: the seeding is going to matter as we go throughout 56 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: this table and where you're placed in the knockout stage. Right, 57 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,799 Speaker 1: So the number one seed and for you know, lack 58 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 1: of a Bartram should be the best type of seed 59 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 1: because you're gonna get drawn against you know, the winner 60 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,119 Speaker 1: of the I believe it is seventeen and eighteen type 61 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 1: match or you know, basically the most favorable type of 62 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 1: matchup that you can get. Obviously, the approach that I 63 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 1: have kind of from the futures market. I have one 64 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: outright that I'm going to bet, but I think the 65 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 1: way to approach it, I think is kind of just 66 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: waiting and seeing how things play out. I think might 67 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 1: be a better strategy on a lot of these teams. 68 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: You know, if you want to bet long shots, like obviously, 69 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 1: you know, if you want to bet somebody in one 70 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty to two hundred range, if they make 71 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: the knockout stage or even like the playoff, they're going 72 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 1: to be shorter than that. So if you want to 73 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:57,119 Speaker 1: bet outrights in terms of long shots, I think the 74 00:03:57,160 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 1: time to do that is now if you think that 75 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 1: they can finish inside the top twenty four. For me, 76 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: if I had one bet to make on an outright, 77 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: it would be inter at twenty five to one. They 78 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: did get put in a little bit of a difficult schedule. 79 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 1: From Pot one and Pot two they drew Leipzig City, 80 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 1: Arsenal and Leverkusen. But beyond that they're going to be 81 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 1: really heavy favorites against Red Star Belgrade, Young Boys, Monaco 82 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: and Sparta Prague. So they have four very favorable matchups 83 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:25,360 Speaker 1: that they should be big favorites and potentially win, and 84 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 1: they're obviously going to be live, live underdogs in their 85 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:30,799 Speaker 1: other matches and might be favored. I'll obviously be favorite 86 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,159 Speaker 1: at home and they're other ones. But we know Inter 87 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: to be an amazing tournament team. They obviously won copeatally 88 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,280 Speaker 1: last year, they went to the Champions League final two 89 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 1: years ago. They put up incredible underlying metrics in Syria Ah. 90 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: But what Zogie does with the three five to two 91 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: and being able to play without the ball, being able 92 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 1: to be dangerous in transition sets them up so well 93 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 1: for a tournament like this, because there's gonna be a 94 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: lot of scenarios for a lot of these teams that 95 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: like to control possession in their domestic leagues where they're 96 00:04:57,640 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 1: not gonna be able to do that, and Inter is 97 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 1: set up really, really well to be able to play 98 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: that way. They didn't losing anybody in the summer, and 99 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 1: in fact they got a little bit better. They're still 100 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: the same team that we saw and even if you 101 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 1: go back to last Champions League, I know they got 102 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: knock out in the round of sixteen. They should have 103 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 1: put at Letiko away in the first league they should 104 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 1: have won that first match two or even three nothings. 105 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 1: So I think Andrews set up really well here. They 106 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:19,719 Speaker 1: did get a tough little bit of a tough schedule, 107 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 1: so you saw their odds kind of drop back to 108 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: twenty five to one. So that would be if I 109 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: would have bet one outright, that's where I would go, 110 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 1: and my other one that kind of goes along the 111 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: lines of this. I mean, Liverpool has looked amazing so 112 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: far in the Premier leag I know it's only three matches, 113 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: but like they have looked so impressive under slot taking. 114 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: You know what Liverpool was missing under Clop, which is 115 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:43,840 Speaker 1: control and transition defense, fixing those two things and then 116 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,480 Speaker 1: not taking away what Liverpool was good at, which is 117 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 1: playing in transition. So but they got a really, really 118 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: tough schedule. They drew only one team outside of Europe's 119 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 1: top five league and it's PSV, who is the champions 120 00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 1: of Netherlands. I mean they've got you know, Real Madrid, Leipzig, 121 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 1: lever Ac, Milan, lil, PSV, Bologna and Gerona. Like that's 122 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: a really really tough Champions League schedule. They're sitting at 123 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: fourteen to one right now. I think you can probably 124 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: wait on a better price of that as we see 125 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 1: how the seating plays out, see what the potential draws 126 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 1: are for the round of sixteen. So if I had 127 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:17,720 Speaker 1: one bet, it would be Inenter twenty five to one. 128 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: But I really would be watching that Liverpool number. If 129 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 1: that gets to potentially twenty to one, I think I'm 130 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:24,719 Speaker 1: gonna have to hit Liverpool at that number. So that's 131 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: kind of I think the approach the I'm taking this 132 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 1: new Champions League. 133 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it makes sense, especially near the top, 134 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 4: Like I don't really see any of these numbers getting 135 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 4: blasted at all. We'll see how this thing goes. The 136 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,160 Speaker 4: one team I have some interest in here, Anthony's is 137 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 4: Aston Villa. I don't think that the schedule is daunt 138 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 4: to daunting, and I trust you and I am or 139 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 4: like and Villa has been kind of, I guess, as 140 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:57,720 Speaker 4: expected in the Premier League so far, exciting, a little 141 00:06:57,760 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 4: back and forth, and I think that they've got the 142 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 4: ceiling to to beat teams and be a tough one 143 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 4: to dispatch and uh knockout stages and they should definitely 144 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 4: get through. I mean, if they're not one of the 145 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 4: top twenty four teams in this competition, I'd be a 146 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 4: little shocked, especially with Emery at the Helm. There's sixty 147 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 4: six to one. I think that number is playable in 148 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 4: my in my eyes, that, like I said, schedule is 149 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 4: not terrible. They at least they do have Bayern and Juve, 150 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 4: but those are both at home. Oh their way matches 151 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 4: are Leipzig bruised young Boys and Monaco. You'd expect them 152 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 4: to make some hay in that situation. They should be 153 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 4: pretty decided favorites against Celtic and Bologna. So Ville is 154 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 4: my favorite if I had to go to the top, 155 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 4: I mean the Liverpool number BJ. I think it's interesting 156 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 4: you're saying that you can wait there. I guess the 157 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 4: schedule is I'm I actually could see a situation where 158 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 4: it shortens before the Champions League, like uh gets into 159 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 4: like the middle stages because of how good they've looked, 160 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 4: or maybe over the next week as people are playing 161 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 4: these futures. But you're probably right, like as the tournament 162 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 4: goes on, you'll probably be able to stick stick around there. 163 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 1: I mean the thing is is like, you know, they've 164 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: looked great, but it also is I switched Brentford and 165 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 1: Manchester United. Yeah, right, like they've they've got you know, 166 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 1: they've got Nodding enforced out of the break and then 167 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 1: they got you know, they got to go to a 168 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 1: cy Milan for their first match, so that will be 169 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 1: a very good look, that's. 170 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 4: A good opportunity. Yeah, Anthony, welcome back. Anything you as 171 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 4: you see at the top of the show here that 172 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 4: piques your interest. 173 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 2: Yeah. 174 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:33,839 Speaker 3: So I think the case for Villa is what they 175 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 3: just did to Arsenal And I know they lost that match, 176 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 3: but I thought they were pretty good out of possession. 177 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 2: Uh. 178 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 3: You know, Ramsey and Rogers have kind of come out 179 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 3: of nowhere and been the replacements for They were in 180 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 3: a weird PSR place where they had to sell some players, 181 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 3: including Douglas Louise and we were like, well what's the 182 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 3: midfield going to look like? And o'nanna's betting really well 183 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:58,000 Speaker 3: and Morgan Rodgers has looked awesome. Most people thought he 184 00:08:58,080 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 3: was the best player on the pitch in that match. 185 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 3: And then they had a very comfortable win against Leicster. 186 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:05,319 Speaker 3: So I think there's a case that Villa is actually 187 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 3: better than they were last year. We all know that 188 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 3: they overperformed to get to fourth, but they were pretty 189 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 3: average overall and kind of got a little bit fortunate 190 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 3: to get to top four, and now what if they're 191 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:17,079 Speaker 3: just better? 192 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:18,199 Speaker 2: So sixty six to one. 193 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 3: We know Emory's knockout pedigree from the v Real days 194 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 3: and the success he had there. But I think my 195 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 3: team is going to be a team that this podcast 196 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 3: has hated for a couple of years. And I'm now 197 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:33,319 Speaker 3: in at the current price, in the current iteration of 198 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 3: the team, and it's Juventus at forty to one. We 199 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 3: were no fans of Max Allegris. We were no fans 200 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 3: of Juve because they played this awful style. They never 201 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 3: had the ball. They would hang on for dear life 202 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 3: and just try to beat teams one nill all the time. Well, 203 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 3: they've played three matches in Syria and they haven't played 204 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:53,719 Speaker 3: a tough schedule, but they did hold Roma scoreless on 205 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 3: Saturday or Sunday, and I think it's notable that they've 206 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 3: conceded one point one xg and three matches and it's 207 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 3: a very different way of defending. They're defending with the ball, 208 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,119 Speaker 3: and I think that is a more effective strategy. 209 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:10,319 Speaker 2: And they really went out and bought an. 210 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 3: Impressive midfield and basically tried to shere that up, like 211 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 3: Locatelli's been there and has been there kind of guy 212 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 3: for a while. But they go out and they had 213 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 3: cop miners from Atalanta who was pretty much one of 214 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 3: the key players for their Europa League run, Douglas Luiz 215 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 3: and Keefrin Tam who two years ago everybody wanted. Last 216 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 3: year kind of had a down year and now he's 217 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 3: going for cheaper than I think a lot of people 218 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 3: thought he was going to go for. So Juve has 219 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 3: completely rebuilt the midfield. Even Volvic, another guy this podcast 220 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,439 Speaker 3: has not been too fond of over the years. He's 221 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 3: had a step forward his shot numbers last year. So 222 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 3: I think there's a case for Uvent just being better 223 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,319 Speaker 3: than we think. And I really like Tiago Mata. 224 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,199 Speaker 2: So you've a forty to one. 225 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 3: I think should be priced in that tier with Inter 226 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:57,960 Speaker 3: and at Lettie and Leverkus, and I think they're closer 227 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 3: to those teams than they are to the teams they're 228 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 3: priced with at forty to one, which is closer to 229 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 3: like the. 230 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 2: You know, Adlan to Milan. I think they're better than 231 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 2: both of those teams because of their defense being so good. 232 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:13,200 Speaker 4: What's interesting about the betting here is it both it's 233 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 4: a both disappointing format to bet and you know, exciting 234 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 4: because it's new. But you know there's no group stage, 235 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 4: no betting is someone to finish the top of the 236 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 4: group or whatever. Now we're talking very much American style 237 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 4: finish the top eight. So BJ well, we'll focus on 238 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 4: that market next. Obviously you have some to lay some 239 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 4: serious wood on teams like City Madrid, Arsenal, Bayern, Liverpool 240 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 4: and Barcelona. But I do think there's room for for 241 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 4: some surprises anybody here that makes you want to place 242 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 4: a bet on to finish top eight, which was like 243 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,679 Speaker 4: we said, it's massively important because you get it by 244 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 4: into the round of sixteen. 245 00:11:57,880 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 1: It's incredibly important. 246 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going to be hard though to figure out this. 247 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 3: So you mentioned the seating, so it's kind of like, 248 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,079 Speaker 3: you know, the one or the two will play fifteen 249 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 3: through eighteen, and the three will three or four will 250 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 3: play you. 251 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 2: Know thirteen or fourteen or seven ninth. 252 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 3: But like when the gaps are this small between the teams, 253 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,559 Speaker 3: like we were looking at it and like it could 254 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 3: be sixteen fifteen points to get like seventh and like 255 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 3: thirteen points. 256 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 2: You could be in twelve, right, that's how close it. 257 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 3: So it's going to be really hard I think to 258 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 3: kind of game out the knockout bracket in terms of 259 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 3: the top eight. 260 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 2: Like the schedule I think is super some of it 261 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 2: is super imbalanced. 262 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 4: The schedule. You have to take into consideration the schedule, 263 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 4: and I think teams are going to want to paste 264 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 4: and just absolutely paste the doormance yep, yeah, which is. 265 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 1: In every match. 266 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 4: I get that they wanted, would want it. 267 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, It's it's no longer like Cities one. You know, 268 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: if City has won you know, five or even six 269 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 1: matches and they get their final two seating is gonna matter, 270 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 1: And there's exact things they're gonna do it, so like 271 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:06,560 Speaker 1: every single match is going to matter. Which is going 272 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 1: to you know transition to like you know, do they 273 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 1: put less emphasis on the Premier League or do they 274 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:13,320 Speaker 1: put more emphasis on the champions. It's gonna be very 275 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: weird to figure out. So it's all we're all new 276 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 1: in this, so you know things are going to be 277 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 1: a little bit. You know, it's hard to the point. Thing. 278 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 1: The point is is like it's hard to get behind 279 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 1: like a load of futures right now, and we just 280 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 1: have a lot of unknowns, honestly. 281 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 3: But I think that's why we do the We do 282 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:31,719 Speaker 3: the January thing every year, right Like, we've booked a 283 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 3: couple of teams in January, we've gotten like half the season, 284 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:35,839 Speaker 3: and we have an idea of who they're going to 285 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 3: play and help me pick our teams exactly. 286 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 1: And so yeah, the Champions League is going to this 287 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 1: group format is going to run through the end of January. 288 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: I think the final day is January twenty ninth, I 289 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 1: think is what it is. So so you know, once 290 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: we get to the knockout stage, then it'll get really 291 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:54,839 Speaker 1: fun once we figure out the seedings. But I think, 292 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 1: you know, and it kind of goes back to the original 293 00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 1: point of just like the betting these futures is going 294 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: to kind of be more of a you know, go along, 295 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 1: you know, bettingham as we go along here, as the 296 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: seatings change, as we see things changing and everything like that. 297 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:09,320 Speaker 1: But in terms of top eight, I like enter at 298 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 1: plus one forty. Like I said, they got a difficult 299 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 1: schedule from pot one and pot two, but pots three 300 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 1: and four was very favorable to them, So plus one 301 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: forty on that I have them projected to finish sixth 302 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 1: in my expected points table. Another one I have Anthony's 303 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: not gonna like this. I like Leverkusen at plus one thirty. 304 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 2: They stink. 305 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 1: Oh they sucked. They lost a match, I know, even 306 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 1: though they could what five and a half expected. 307 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 3: Goals conceited, conceded like two to a half to go 308 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 3: out by for exactly. 309 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 1: So here's the thing is I I truly believe that 310 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 1: Shabi Alonso is third fourth maybe you know in that 311 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 1: obviously in that top five in terms of being one 312 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: of the best tactical managers in the world, and his 313 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 1: ability of what he did with Leverkusen last season and 314 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 1: the way they're able to build out through opponents is 315 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 1: so impressed. And as you saw last season, nobody was 316 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: able to beat them except for Adelanta. What did Adelanta do? 317 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 1: They went with the most aggressive man demand press that 318 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 1: you could ever see and it worked. There's very very 319 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 1: few teams in the world that can pull that off 320 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:17,680 Speaker 1: against this team, and especially in a tournament format like this. 321 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 1: I find it very hard to believe that some of 322 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 1: the teams on their schedule are really going to give 323 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 1: them a lot of problems, especially towards the bottom they did. 324 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 1: They are going to face Enter in Liverpool. Those are 325 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 1: very two, very difficult matches. But ac Milan at Buddy 326 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 1: Com Madrid, Salzburg, Fine Ord, Sparta, Prague and Breast that's 327 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: pretty favorable for Leverkusen. And I know what Anthony's gonna 328 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 1: say is that they can't possibly have twenty seven you know, 329 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 1: stoppage time equalizers or winners you know, in this season. 330 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 1: But they're not going to obviously, But there is an 331 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 1: element to Leverkusen where if you decide to defend them 332 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 1: deep for most of the match, that gets so freaking 333 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: exhausting when they are passing the ball around you over 334 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 1: and over and over again with their three man combinations, 335 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: and there is an element of wearing teams down that 336 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 1: once we get to stoppage time, teams are exhausted and 337 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 1: they're more likely to concede goals. Again, they're not going 338 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: to have as many as they did last year, but 339 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 1: I think there is an element that it could continue 340 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: in that type of realm. They did put up great 341 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: underlying metrics and it's not like they were a complete 342 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 1: luck box throughout the entire season. I mean they were 343 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 1: a plus one point three expected goal differential for ninety minutes. 344 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 1: And the biggest thing that I saw one match from 345 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 1: them last season. They played Buyern the second time and 346 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: they beat them three nothing. And the primary reason why 347 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: they beat them three nothing is because Shabi a Lonzo 348 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 1: just switched them to a five three two and said, 349 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 1: you know what, we're defending in a mid block and 350 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: we're going to beat them in transition. And they did, 351 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 1: and they did it super effectively. So having that in 352 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 1: your bag again when you play a team like Liverpool 353 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 1: or Inter or even some of the better teams as 354 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: we go throughout this competition, I think sets Upbracusen actually 355 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 1: pretty well. And I still think they're one of the 356 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: top eight teams in the world. I've been projected to 357 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:08,679 Speaker 1: finish seventh on my expected points table. So getting them 358 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,360 Speaker 1: at plus money when they have quite a few favorable 359 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 1: matches as we get beyond Pot two, I think is 360 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 1: a decent price. 361 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 4: The only team in this market I had a little 362 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 4: bit of interest in what was Stute Guard at eight 363 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 4: to one just because the schedules. Yeah, yeah, they just 364 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 4: caught a big break. Obviously away matches to Juve and 365 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 4: Real Madrid. You can probably chuck those up as losses. 366 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 4: But their other two the Roader Red Star in Bratislava, 367 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 4: so hopefully expect the. 368 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: Got I'm gonna call this right now on this podcast. 369 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 1: Bradislava is gonna play at home against City. They're probably 370 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 1: gonna be like thirty five or forty to one in 371 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 1: that match. I'm gonna guess Michael's gonna be on them 372 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 1: yell for that one. 373 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, nobody goes to Bradislavin. Yeah, never lose. Yeah. But 374 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,959 Speaker 4: the home games for Stute Guard are young Boys Sparta 375 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 4: Prague at Atlanta and PS three. If you can get 376 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 4: nine points out of that, and maybe that's asking too much, 377 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 4: I think that eight to one is pretty live. So 378 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:14,680 Speaker 4: entity anything here. Teams you wanted back to finish inside 379 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 4: that top eight. 380 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 3: Well, I mean it's correlated to the team I just mentioned, 381 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,479 Speaker 3: but you've we can talk about the schedule now plus 382 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 3: two point fifty. 383 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:26,359 Speaker 2: To finish top eight. Their schedule is not too bad. 384 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 3: They get Leipzig and POT one and man City, so 385 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 3: they'll probably lose a City, but they get him at home. 386 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 3: Could be interesting Leipzig away. Then their rest of their 387 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 3: groups are pretty friendly. Benfica and Bruises is about as 388 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 3: good of a Pot two draw as you can possibly get. 389 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 2: They draw. 390 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,680 Speaker 3: PSV and lil So a little tougher in Pot three, 391 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 3: and then Stuttgart and Villa in Pot four, So I 392 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 3: think it's a pretty friendly group of teams. And to 393 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 3: push back on the Leverkusen thing, I'm worried about their defense. 394 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 3: I still think they're going to create plenty and score plenty, 395 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 3: but giving up three to Leipzig, blowing a two goal 396 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,640 Speaker 3: lead in their first two matches of the season, giving 397 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 3: up two x G to god Bach, a team that 398 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 3: we're not too fond of anymore of these days, or 399 00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 3: isn't the very good at least, and the end of 400 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,680 Speaker 3: last season, if you look at Leipzig or Leverkusen's numbers, 401 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 3: they kind of did fall off defensively, right. They gave 402 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 3: up one point five x G second leg to west Ham, 403 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,680 Speaker 3: three point six over two legs to Roma, almost two 404 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:30,919 Speaker 3: to Stuctgart, two to Frankfurt, conceded. 405 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:31,879 Speaker 2: Three in the final to addle On too. 406 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 3: So like there are some red flags with the defense 407 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 3: that I think I'm more concerned about that that I 408 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 3: am their attack. And of course, yes, I don't care 409 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 3: how tired the other team is there. The amount of 410 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,239 Speaker 3: late goals they scored was diabolical last year and not 411 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 3: going to continue. But I'm a little bit a little 412 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 3: bit cooler on Leverkusen shockingly, and I do think the 413 00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:52,639 Speaker 3: schedule is tough. 414 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 2: I mean they have to go to fiord ad LETI 415 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 2: in Liverpool. That's pretty tough. Three away matches in the 416 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 2: in the group stage. Yeah, you Ventus for me? 417 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 3: I mean I was I was interested by Inter but 418 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 3: then the price scared me and PSG is probably the 419 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,400 Speaker 3: worst bet you could make given tough theory bracket is Yeah, 420 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,879 Speaker 3: I'm gonna be looking to maybe bet on PSG just 421 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,960 Speaker 3: because the schedule is so hard like in individual games. 422 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:17,200 Speaker 3: But City Bayern ad led to Arsenal, PSV, Jarona, stute 423 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:20,719 Speaker 3: Gart and Salzburg is I think they got hosed more 424 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 3: than anybody seemingly in the drug except maybe brought to Slava. 425 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 1: Uh. 426 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, PSG's good. I actually it brings up a 427 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 4: good point. I think PSG is gonna finish like mid 428 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:36,479 Speaker 4: table in that top twenty four. To make a uh, 429 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 4: I think they'll finish in between ninth and twenty fourth, right, 430 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 4: And then you're talking about them to win the thing, 431 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:42,479 Speaker 4: and then we're exactly that's what I'm gonna say. That's 432 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 4: exactly what I was gonna say, Like, we'll catch their 433 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 4: twenty to one to win the tournament. Now, I think 434 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:48,400 Speaker 4: that you're gonna catch a bigger number on that when 435 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 4: they struggle. 436 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 2: To ewing theory, right, yeah, exactly. 437 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 4: The wing theory coming true. 438 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 1: Your minus one ninety to finish in that nine through 439 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:58,720 Speaker 1: twenty four, which is kind of a high price. I 440 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 1: think you maybe can maybe wait on that. 441 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, I would just wait and play to win the 442 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,120 Speaker 4: tournament when they have to, you know, when they get 443 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:10,199 Speaker 4: that the matchup against Salzburg or something, and yeah, to 444 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 4: get through. Okay. 445 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,639 Speaker 2: Uh, speaking of which, so we're talking about question, how 446 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 2: many teams do we think are locks to be top eight? 447 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 4: Three? 448 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,679 Speaker 2: I would say yeah, I say I would say four. 449 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:24,880 Speaker 1: I would yeah, I would say four. 450 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:26,680 Speaker 2: I would say I'm going to put Liverpool in there. 451 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 1: Oh you're Liverpool in there? You're not. You're not saying 452 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:29,680 Speaker 1: my team's a lock. 453 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 2: No they are. I think they are. 454 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 3: Okay, Okay, so you're saying the three English three English 455 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 3: teams in Real Madrid Madrid, right, yeah, I even Real. 456 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 2: Madrid haven't looked all that good. 457 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:44,199 Speaker 1: Yeah, figure and there, and their schedule I believe was 458 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,359 Speaker 1: was not, you know, the easiest one in the world. 459 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: They got. Yeah, I mean this is I mean, their 460 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:54,639 Speaker 1: schedule is actually kind of tough. Dortmund, Liverpool, Milan, al Onto, Salzburg, 461 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:56,879 Speaker 1: Lil stut Card and Breast. I mean that's not the 462 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:57,679 Speaker 1: easiest schedule. 463 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 4: It's another team that Okay, if you think they finish 464 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 4: between ninth and twenty fourth, that's another team. 465 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:04,120 Speaker 1: Three to one defense. 466 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 2: You're never gonna get any value on bet Real. 467 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 4: I never know, but it's yeah, this is quite true. 468 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,119 Speaker 2: Until they're down two goals in the second against somebody. 469 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:17,360 Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah. The interesting thing too, is we always say 470 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 4: in these preview episodes like there's always going to be 471 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 4: a surprise group winner or a team that finishes second 472 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 4: in the group of death that nobody sees coming, et cetera. 473 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 4: It's really hard to see that coming here. And like 474 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 4: the top eight, that's what I would say, more than anything. 475 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 4: You could say, there's three locks, right, or four locks 476 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 4: between City Madrid Arsenal if you want to throw Liverpool 477 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 4: in there, if you want, if you're high on Bayern, Munich, 478 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 4: for them, it's really hard to see a gate crasher 479 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 4: because the teams you'd have to beat out for those 480 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 4: last three spots are. 481 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 1: Just so good's. 482 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,720 Speaker 4: That's the only that's the thing that throws cold War down. 483 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 4: The stute Gart thing is like, yeah, they're the team 484 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 4: that I think has the potential to come from nowhere 485 00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 4: to finish top eight because their schedule, but there's still 486 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,640 Speaker 4: only eight to one. I would much you rather pig 487 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,440 Speaker 4: a number on that because the teams that they have 488 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:08,479 Speaker 4: to beat beat out for it anyways. 489 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 3: Well yeah, I mean eight matches when you're competing with 490 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,119 Speaker 3: the whole field versus six matches when you're playing like 491 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 3: there's one overrated team and you play them twice all 492 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 3: of a sudden, like the door is way more open 493 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:17,399 Speaker 3: to do that. 494 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 2: I do think Letty's interesting. 495 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 3: Plus one forty curious for BJ has them, But I 496 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 3: mean their schedule. They got probably the easiest top two 497 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 3: schedule overall. Leipzig, PSG, Leverkusen, Benfica, that's a very friendly 498 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,920 Speaker 3: top four matches. I don't think a ton of Benfica 499 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 3: this year. I just said what I think of Leverkusen, 500 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 3: like they're going to probably be a home dog to Leverkusen. 501 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 3: I'll be betting them in that match up whenever that 502 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 3: is Leipzig home. They have looked pretty shaky so far, 503 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 3: even though they won that game against Leverkusen. Like you said, 504 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 3: they gave up three x G and then PSG away. 505 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 3: I mean at the top of the pool. I think 506 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 3: there's very clearly like a bottom three in the top 507 00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 3: pot and it's Dortmund, Leipzig and PSG. So anybody who 508 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 3: drew multiple of those teams got a very friendly draw 509 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 3: and led the use the team there that fits that. 510 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I have sixteen. They're sixteen to one to 511 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,120 Speaker 4: finish the top of the league phase at Letty. It's 512 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:13,360 Speaker 4: one thing that was taking. 513 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:17,800 Speaker 1: Eleven to eleventh in my expected points table. 514 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 3: And I think they're gonna be better this year. I do 515 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 3: think they'll take a step forward. Caligher and Alvarez, Yeah, all. 516 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,439 Speaker 4: Right, that's the that's the top eight. I think the 517 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 4: best market to kind of build out. The logic for 518 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,359 Speaker 4: US is to finish between ninth and twenty four, so 519 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 4: essentially to qualify for the knockout phase. To make the 520 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:43,480 Speaker 4: knockout phase. It's a it's a really fun one to handicap. Oh, 521 00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 4: they'll be decent. They could be actually not that decent, 522 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,919 Speaker 4: but finished twenty fourth. Maybe it's a team that people 523 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:55,560 Speaker 4: think like a Bayern Munich for example, there's a big reputation. 524 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 4: They struggle in the league phase and finish tenth. 525 00:24:58,400 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: DJA. 526 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,679 Speaker 4: Anything you see of value here, there's so many different 527 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 4: ways you can ye find it. 528 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 3: Not a lot of markets where Celtic and Arsenal are 529 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:07,680 Speaker 3: priced next to each other. 530 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 4: Yeah that's the great thing, right, Like it's just that it. 531 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,919 Speaker 1: Is the great thing about this, right Yeah, I was 532 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 1: just thinking. This came to my brain right before I 533 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 1: was about to uh to do my whole spiel at Michael. 534 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,199 Speaker 1: But we should we should create a round robin for 535 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: these for this little little section, here be a lot 536 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 1: of fun. I like Celtic. They're plus one sixty two. 537 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,160 Speaker 1: Nobody got an easier schedule than them, by far. They 538 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 1: have the easiest schedule of anybody. They've got two of 539 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,040 Speaker 1: the basement dwellers in Pot one, Leipzig and Dortmund. They 540 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,800 Speaker 1: drew off Club Bruges in at Atlanta and in Pot 541 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,880 Speaker 1: two and then they go young boys. Dino Zagreb brought 542 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,119 Speaker 1: a slava and then they gotta go away to aston Villa. 543 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 1: But I mean the schedule is just so freaking easy 544 00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 1: for them. And I know we've been down this road 545 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 1: many times before with him in the last two years, 546 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,520 Speaker 1: last three years. You know, they were pretty bad in 547 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,199 Speaker 1: the Champions League last year when they got drawn with 548 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 1: Athlettiko Fi and Or and Latzia. But here's before even worse, yeah, 549 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 1: worse the year for that and. 550 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 2: That one half against Real Mad. 551 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 1: They did, they did, and then they had that game 552 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,120 Speaker 1: against Leipsig at home as well, where they were playing 553 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:11,359 Speaker 1: really well and then just cave the ball in the 554 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:16,920 Speaker 1: medieth minute. But the thing that why Celtics struggles essentially 555 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 1: in the Champions League is because they dominate possession. They 556 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,000 Speaker 1: dominate the ball in the Scottish Premier League, and you 557 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:25,200 Speaker 1: know that lends itself to them, you know, only allowing 558 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 1: you know, half an expectable for ninety minutes, which is 559 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 1: the best defensive mark of anybody in their own domestic 560 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,639 Speaker 1: league that comes into this tournament. And you know, Brendan 561 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,080 Speaker 1: Rodgers is obviously somebody that wants his team build out 562 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,280 Speaker 1: of the back. You know, press aggressively high and when 563 00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,800 Speaker 1: you're playing in the Champions League against teams like Athletic 564 00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 1: Colassio and fin Ord, like you're just not able to 565 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 1: do that and you tend to struggle. Well, now they're 566 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,359 Speaker 1: in a situation where they're going to get essentially four 567 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:54,160 Speaker 1: matches where they can be the ones that control possession, 568 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 1: they can be the ones that press high and actually 569 00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,880 Speaker 1: do that effectively. I mean I have them favored over 570 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:04,240 Speaker 1: young boys Slovon brought us Slava Club Bruges and Dino Zagreb. 571 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 1: You know, Await Astonville is a tough match away Atlanta 572 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 1: is tough, getting leips they get home for a little 573 00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:12,800 Speaker 1: bit of revenge because they've faced them what they faced 574 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 1: them two years ago and they you know, played them 575 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 1: very very difficultly. So for me, it's the schedule and 576 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 1: getting them at plus money. You know, I have been 577 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,160 Speaker 1: finishing tenth in my expected points table because of how 578 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 1: easy this schedule really is. And that's just the biggest 579 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,560 Speaker 1: thing is them being able to play the style they 580 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 1: want to play under Rogers against essentially four teams where 581 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:37,600 Speaker 1: they're going to be favored Lens itself very very favorably 582 00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 1: to just finish in twenty fourth. We're not asking them 583 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,879 Speaker 1: to finish in ninth or tenth or eleventh. We're just 584 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,040 Speaker 1: asking them to be better than a lot of these 585 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:49,160 Speaker 1: Pot four teams. So given the schedule that Celtic has, 586 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,439 Speaker 1: I don't think they should be plus money to be 587 00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:53,440 Speaker 1: finishing here at this nine to twenty four range. I 588 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 1: definitely do not think they are good enough to get 589 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 1: into the top eight. So I mean, you want to 590 00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 1: play twelve to one. You know, I'm not going to 591 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,040 Speaker 1: I'm not going to stop you, but that needs to 592 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:03,840 Speaker 1: be closer to twenty one twenty to one if I'm 593 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 1: ever going to play it. So Celtic plus one sixty 594 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,360 Speaker 1: two is my my biggest bet from this range. 595 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:13,280 Speaker 3: Okay, Bologna got a friendly schedule. I kind of like them. 596 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,680 Speaker 3: Who's that one to ten Bologna? Oh yeah, they got 597 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,560 Speaker 3: They got raided a little bit, right. They lose zer 598 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,919 Speaker 3: Za and I get that they was Califiori and they 599 00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,120 Speaker 3: lose the manager. But I mean, we we've liked, We've 600 00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 3: been a Feorentina podcast in the past. 601 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:26,920 Speaker 2: Uh. 602 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,119 Speaker 3: And Italiano comes over and I think they're going to 603 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:33,639 Speaker 3: be fine. Uh And Dortmund at home, Shaktar at home, 604 00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,680 Speaker 3: Little at home, Monaco at home, Like that's a very 605 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,480 Speaker 3: friendly home schedule, and that's really going to be the key, 606 00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:41,160 Speaker 3: Like are they going to get points at Liverpool or 607 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,920 Speaker 3: even at Benfica. Probably not, but I do think they're 608 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 3: going to be competitive enough at home. You only need 609 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 3: like eight points yep to probably make it to the 610 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:49,080 Speaker 3: top twenty four. 611 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 2: And there are there are some much worse teams. I 612 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,400 Speaker 2: agree with bjuh. I was coming on. 613 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 3: Preparing to scoff at BJ's Celtic take, but I think 614 00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,680 Speaker 3: he kind of sold beyond it a little bit with 615 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 3: just how bad the bottom teams are on the in 616 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,000 Speaker 3: their in their opponents list, Like there's young boys, well 617 00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:05,440 Speaker 3: that's the broad slava. 618 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,880 Speaker 4: You're not asking them to play, you know, like dortmun. 619 00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 2: Well Pot three four and they play like big boys. Right. 620 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 4: It's just like those are the teams that I think 621 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,320 Speaker 4: make out the best from from this new format, right, 622 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,960 Speaker 4: Like it's it's that kind of middle class that would 623 00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 4: be like the third clear third best team in the 624 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:27,240 Speaker 4: groups of four or there like a between third and fourth. 625 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 4: And now all of a sudden, like can you beat 626 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 4: out these twelve teams with this schedule? And the answer 627 00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 4: is going to be, you know, plus one sixty two 628 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:37,160 Speaker 4: to be yes for Beach. 629 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 3: It's a really fun field this year because we had 630 00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 3: so many surprise top four to five finishes. Yeah, like 631 00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 3: Stute Guart, Bologna Villa, Uh Yourna is a froun pot four. Yeah, 632 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,480 Speaker 3: Breast Monica, Monica not as much, but Breast too. 633 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 4: Yeah. 634 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,959 Speaker 2: How many of these five can recreate the magic from 635 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:54,440 Speaker 2: last year? 636 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 4: This Breast schedule is so funny to me. I think 637 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,800 Speaker 4: that they're they're gonna be rabble rousers. 638 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,760 Speaker 1: Fine ards also kind of interesting, like plus one forty. Uh, 639 00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,560 Speaker 1: you know they they obviously lose slot, they lose you know, 640 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,880 Speaker 1: Wifer and get Truda, who's now going to Leipzig. Uh. 641 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,600 Speaker 1: Schedules brutal, but get well, the first part of the 642 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 1: schedule is brutal, and then once you get into the 643 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,080 Speaker 1: back half, it actually I think opens up a little 644 00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 1: bit when they get to play Benefica, Salzburg, lil Prague 645 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 1: and Girona. Like, I mean, listen, are they going to 646 00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,840 Speaker 1: take a massive not a massive They're going to take 647 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 1: a step back now that slot is gone. But I 648 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 1: mean this team was, I mean, you're getting close to 649 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 1: it to expect a gol differential per ninety in the 650 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 1: air to Visa and they were, you know, as we 651 00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 1: saw last season, very very good, uh in in the 652 00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,240 Speaker 1: in the Champions League group stage. 653 00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 2: So I probably bet them the first two matches. 654 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, schedules stays in first match, yeahs stays Like this 655 00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,560 Speaker 1: team is, I don't know, They're kind of interesting and 656 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,320 Speaker 1: I don't think they obviously, you know what with the 657 00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,040 Speaker 1: schedule they have, it's you know, obviously brutal. So they're 658 00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:58,840 Speaker 1: not going to finish in the top eight. But for 659 00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,000 Speaker 1: them to be better than and you know a lot 660 00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 1: of these you know, teams in this range, like you're 661 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 1: getting him at plus money is kind of interesting. So 662 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,160 Speaker 1: I'll well, maybe be on them. Maybe I'll wait till 663 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,520 Speaker 1: after this first match against Letricuse all. 664 00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 4: Right, onto the Golden Boot. This also changes the arithmetic 665 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:20,360 Speaker 4: for this market quite a bit. Earling Holland is your 666 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,560 Speaker 4: clear favorite of plus two seventy five, Killian and Bappe 667 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 4: now Real Madrid is at five to one, Harry Kane 668 00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 4: right behind him six, Mosala twelve to one, Vinnie fourteen, 669 00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 4: Robert Lewandowski sixteen to one. Jude Bellingham of Real Madrid 670 00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,560 Speaker 4: is twenty to one. Julian Alvarez now at Lettico MADRIDUS 671 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,520 Speaker 4: twenty five to one. So is Phil Foden, Anchoine Griesman 672 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:45,280 Speaker 4: is thirty three to one, Domin Nunez and Mucila also there, 673 00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:49,800 Speaker 4: so is Lamina Yamal and Rodrigo at thirty three to one. 674 00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:53,440 Speaker 4: I'll stop there because that's right before Alvaro Moranto is 675 00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 4: forty to one. Will obviously be a future when even yeah, 676 00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:01,560 Speaker 4: even though he's at Milan now, I do have an 677 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:05,680 Speaker 4: interest in Louis Luis Diaz of Liverpool at eighty to one. 678 00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 4: I feel like he's just off and running under slot. 679 00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,160 Speaker 4: I think that, as BJ was saying at the top, 680 00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,920 Speaker 4: like they do have potential to go deep into this tournament, 681 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 4: which obviously you need. And yeah, I think that's that's 682 00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:21,440 Speaker 4: a team that's just gonna score a bunch and we'll 683 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:27,120 Speaker 4: pace absolutely paste the drags of their schedule. So DS 684 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,719 Speaker 4: to me at eighty to one is my favorite bet. Obviously, 685 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,040 Speaker 4: Well we'll have a little bit of marata because we 686 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,120 Speaker 4: just got to keep doing it until he's a MLS 687 00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:40,960 Speaker 4: and then we'll be betting him. There anything here for you, BJ. 688 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:45,920 Speaker 1: I like Litero Martinez the forty two to one. You 689 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,840 Speaker 1: know you mentioned how it changes how you approach this. 690 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 4: Right. 691 00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:52,080 Speaker 1: So obviously every team's going to get eight matches, but 692 00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,720 Speaker 1: you also have to account Okay, you wanted somebody that's 693 00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,120 Speaker 1: going to go deep into this tournament, but you also 694 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:01,719 Speaker 1: may want those two extra matches when we do the playoff. Right, 695 00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:04,680 Speaker 1: So if we believe, you know, I like Inter to 696 00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 1: finish in the top eight, and I believe they're going to, 697 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:08,160 Speaker 1: but with the schedule that they have, there is a 698 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,560 Speaker 1: potential they could finish in that nine to twenty four range. 699 00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:14,920 Speaker 1: So you're basically saying like, Okay, I could get an 700 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,760 Speaker 1: extra two matches, and Enter is obviously team that's built 701 00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:19,480 Speaker 1: to go deep in this tournament. So you have to 702 00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:23,560 Speaker 1: kind of do you have to account for both, right, Like, 703 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:24,960 Speaker 1: if you're a team like City, well you're not going 704 00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 1: to get those two extra matches, and then if you 705 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 1: don't go deep in the tournament, then Hollin's not going 706 00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:30,240 Speaker 1: to be able to win the Golden Boot. 707 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:30,520 Speaker 2: Right. 708 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:36,200 Speaker 1: So Latual Martinez last season in the Champions League in 709 00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:40,040 Speaker 1: about six nineties, averaged five and a half shots per 710 00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 1: ninety that was outside of that was the most of 711 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,160 Speaker 1: anybody in the Champions League. He only scored two goals 712 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:51,480 Speaker 1: created close to cleared over five spectacles, so drastically underperformed there. 713 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,880 Speaker 1: But basically, outside of Joselo, he had the best ex 714 00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:58,160 Speaker 1: GP per ninety of anybody in the Champions League. And 715 00:33:58,240 --> 00:33:59,480 Speaker 1: it kind of goes along with what I was saying 716 00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:01,840 Speaker 1: about Intern, is like they're gonna be in situations where 717 00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,240 Speaker 1: obviously they're gonna be a favorite, and you know they're 718 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,440 Speaker 1: gonna control possession and he is the main target up top, 719 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:08,800 Speaker 1: but they're also gonna be in situations where they're not 720 00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:10,359 Speaker 1: gonna have the ball for a majority of the match 721 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 1: and they're gonna look to hit teams in transition. And 722 00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 1: there's really no I mean there's no better transition striker 723 00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:19,920 Speaker 1: right now than Laturo Martinez. He really can punish teams 724 00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,239 Speaker 1: over and over again. So the shot production that he 725 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,280 Speaker 1: gets not only in Champions League but also in Syria 726 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,719 Speaker 1: AH makes him definitely live to win the Golden Boot, 727 00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:29,919 Speaker 1: especially at forty two to one. So if you're something 728 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,040 Speaker 1: like me that believes Inter can go deep in this tournament, 729 00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:34,440 Speaker 1: I mean, forty two to one I think is a 730 00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,840 Speaker 1: fantastic price when he's getting better shot production number than 731 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:39,719 Speaker 1: some of those guys at the top of the ward. 732 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:41,440 Speaker 2: I'm tempted by Kane. 733 00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:45,240 Speaker 3: I think you have to consider that in this tournament, 734 00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:48,399 Speaker 3: just playing every match is really important. And Harry Kane 735 00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,920 Speaker 3: is notorious for never letting his manager ever arrest him, 736 00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:53,480 Speaker 3: so he's going to try to stat pad against the 737 00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 3: really bad teams, and I think where you compare that 738 00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:59,680 Speaker 3: to Holland where he may get arrest right and we 739 00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:03,440 Speaker 3: talk about Real Madrid and in Bape Slash Vinnie and 740 00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:05,640 Speaker 3: kind of them not quite gelling right away. We think 741 00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:07,879 Speaker 3: they'll figure it out eventually, but not too interested in them. 742 00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,319 Speaker 3: So I do think that Kane at six to one 743 00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,719 Speaker 3: is my favorite of like the top six or seven guys, 744 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,279 Speaker 3: just because I know he's going to play every match. 745 00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:18,359 Speaker 3: And if you look at Byron's matchups, BARSA, we don't 746 00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:19,560 Speaker 3: think they can defend PSG. 747 00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:23,200 Speaker 2: I'm not sure they can defend Benfica did no defending. 748 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,800 Speaker 3: Last year in Europe, and then they push Aktar Zagreb 749 00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,200 Speaker 3: brought a Slava Villa fineord. So like it's a very 750 00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,200 Speaker 3: friendly schedule where they play two of the weaker teams 751 00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,680 Speaker 3: in the Pop one and then two of the worst 752 00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:36,120 Speaker 3: teams in Pot two. So I think Kane can kind 753 00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,960 Speaker 3: of stab at his way to lead here, and then 754 00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:42,480 Speaker 3: if Holland, like if Cities you know, comfortably top three four, 755 00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 3: and like Holland reaches that point in December of January 756 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:47,399 Speaker 3: every year where he needs like a couple of weeks off, 757 00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:49,080 Speaker 3: I feel like they are going to rest him a 758 00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:50,840 Speaker 3: little bit to try to get him right for the 759 00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:53,799 Speaker 3: for the stretch run when they go on their godlike run. 760 00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:55,880 Speaker 2: And so I think Kane at six to one is. 761 00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:57,920 Speaker 3: Kind of a good mix of gonna score goals in 762 00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,719 Speaker 3: the group stage, probably gonna be in the tournament through the. 763 00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:03,800 Speaker 2: Quarters, in the Semis, probably depending on the draw. I 764 00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:07,040 Speaker 2: still think they're pretty good. Uh, and then we'll see. 765 00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:10,560 Speaker 3: But uh, that's my guy here, I think in this market, 766 00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:12,520 Speaker 3: I mean, I you know, Socca is interesting. I just 767 00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:16,360 Speaker 3: don't really think Arsenal plays open. 768 00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:18,399 Speaker 1: Shot production as all those other guys. 769 00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:23,200 Speaker 2: Honestly, he is on the penns thing always helps for 770 00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:24,040 Speaker 2: those situations. 771 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:26,359 Speaker 3: And if they can make it, if they make it deeper, 772 00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:28,800 Speaker 3: I mean, they are the second favorite, third favorite, so 773 00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:30,600 Speaker 3: like they're expected to make the Semis and. 774 00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:33,120 Speaker 2: The matches will be there. 775 00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:35,120 Speaker 1: It will be I mean, like you know, I mean 776 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,000 Speaker 1: we have, abould say, more matches, so it's probably gonna 777 00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:38,680 Speaker 1: be double digit goals, so he could just get better, 778 00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,560 Speaker 1: that's true. I mean we're probably gonna see double digit 779 00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,359 Speaker 1: goals wins the Golden Boot right and Baba had eight goals. Uh, 780 00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,400 Speaker 1: it was tied with Kane, I believe last season. Now 781 00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:51,240 Speaker 1: that we're adding two extra matches plus the two leg playoffs, 782 00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:53,880 Speaker 1: so it's probably gonna be double digits to win this thing. 783 00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:57,800 Speaker 4: Okay, it brings us to the end here before we 784 00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:01,279 Speaker 4: get out of here, b J any other bets that 785 00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:03,520 Speaker 4: we didn't mention that you just want to throw out there. 786 00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,759 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go bottom of the league phase. You know, 787 00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:10,400 Speaker 1: Broadoslava is obviously your favorite. You know, they drew an 788 00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:14,240 Speaker 1: incredibly tough schedule there. In terms of their transfer market value, 789 00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:18,320 Speaker 1: they are very very well bottom of all of these teams, 790 00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,320 Speaker 1: and they're most likely to finish bottom here. But I 791 00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:22,920 Speaker 1: like taking a little bit of a bigger price on 792 00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:26,839 Speaker 1: young boys. At eight to one last season, they were 793 00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,760 Speaker 1: in a group of City Leipzig and Red Star Belgrade 794 00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:32,840 Speaker 1: and they conceded fifteen point three expected goals, which was 795 00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:36,319 Speaker 1: second worst only to Benefica. They created only six point 796 00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:38,319 Speaker 1: four expected goals and three point nine of them came 797 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,520 Speaker 1: against Belgrade, and I believe they had two penalties as 798 00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:44,120 Speaker 1: well along with those. They are currently at the bottom 799 00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:47,120 Speaker 1: of the Swiss super League. Through five matches, three losses, 800 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,040 Speaker 1: two draws, they are conceding one point eight expected goals 801 00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,560 Speaker 1: per ninety minutes. And it's not like their underlying metrics 802 00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:54,600 Speaker 1: were even good in Switzerland last season, they only had 803 00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:57,440 Speaker 1: a plus point four expected goal differential for ninety and 804 00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:59,600 Speaker 1: if for those who don't know, when you're evaluating, teams 805 00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,719 Speaker 1: typically want to be well north of a plus one 806 00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,480 Speaker 1: expect a gold differential per ninety in your own domestic 807 00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,680 Speaker 1: league if you're not coming from one of Europe's top 808 00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:11,400 Speaker 1: five leagues. They are under a new manager, they're implementing 809 00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:13,799 Speaker 1: a new system that really hasn't been working so far. 810 00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:19,280 Speaker 1: So I have them projected to be underdogs in pretty 811 00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:23,239 Speaker 1: much every single match that they have. Their schedule comparatively 812 00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:26,560 Speaker 1: to a lot of teams at the bottom, is more favorable. Right. 813 00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:29,879 Speaker 1: They get Intern Barcelona out of Pop one Atlanta shot, 814 00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,719 Speaker 1: they go to Way to Shaktar, then they host Red 815 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,520 Speaker 1: Star Belgrade again, they go away to Celtic, they host 816 00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:37,560 Speaker 1: Villa and then they go away to Stuttgart, Like I 817 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,919 Speaker 1: have them projected as an underdog in every single match, 818 00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:42,040 Speaker 1: and given the way they're playing in their own domestic league, 819 00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:46,840 Speaker 1: I mean, I think they should be right that second 820 00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:49,520 Speaker 1: favorite to finish at the bottom here, not sitting at 821 00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:51,800 Speaker 1: like fourth or fifth on the board. So I like 822 00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:53,719 Speaker 1: them at eight to one to finish the bottom of 823 00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:55,600 Speaker 1: this league phase, which is going to be an electric 824 00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,440 Speaker 1: bet as we get towards the end. If you know, 825 00:38:58,480 --> 00:38:59,800 Speaker 1: if broad Slava doesn't. 826 00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:03,480 Speaker 4: Just put up a big, big zero Anthony anything else, 827 00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:05,440 Speaker 4: no excited for the new format. 828 00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,200 Speaker 3: I think it's gonna make for some really fun matchups 829 00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,120 Speaker 3: that we don't usually get to see in more high 830 00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:12,719 Speaker 3: profile games. Even if I will miss kind of the 831 00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:15,120 Speaker 3: late stage group drama, We're just well, I. 832 00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:19,960 Speaker 1: Mean, that's that's two years biggest and I think definitely the. 833 00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,320 Speaker 3: Concurrent matches on the final day of the group stage. 834 00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,279 Speaker 3: How many how many TVs be you can have to 835 00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:30,120 Speaker 3: buy to watch all eighteen six paramount. 836 00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,040 Speaker 1: Right now, and I've got three extra sitting in my office, 837 00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:35,200 Speaker 1: so I might have to pull all them out. But 838 00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:36,799 Speaker 1: that's the thing is, I'm don't have to like sign 839 00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,080 Speaker 1: up for like five paramount plus accounts on a day 840 00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:40,840 Speaker 1: and then just like you know, and the both. 841 00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:42,920 Speaker 3: Screen they spread out the first the first round of 842 00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:46,799 Speaker 3: matches over three days. Yeah, that's really okay, good, she's 843 00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:48,719 Speaker 3: got six matches per day. It's like two in the 844 00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,239 Speaker 3: early window for late two, then four, then two then four, 845 00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:55,160 Speaker 3: so okay. The first first week post international break, we've 846 00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:59,680 Speaker 3: got some good ones. Milan Liverpool and Wednesday is City 847 00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:03,680 Speaker 3: in here, and I believe Thursday is Arsenal at Atalanta, 848 00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:05,279 Speaker 3: So some really good ones to start it. 849 00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:07,640 Speaker 1: I mean this it just kind of hammers your point home. 850 00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,280 Speaker 1: It's like this is so much better than the group stage. 851 00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,960 Speaker 1: And if you you don't believe me, just go google 852 00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:14,719 Speaker 1: what happened in the group stage last year and go 853 00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:16,400 Speaker 1: look at all the groups that all these teams were in, 854 00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:18,200 Speaker 1: Like it was incredibly boring. 855 00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:20,919 Speaker 2: So there was like two good groups, Yeah there was, Yeah, 856 00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:21,279 Speaker 2: that was it. 857 00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:22,640 Speaker 1: Like I was looking through it, I was just like 858 00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:26,520 Speaker 1: Death was fun. Arsenal was in a group with you know, PSV, 859 00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:31,080 Speaker 1: Lawns and Sevilla, Like that's just incredibly boring, and like 860 00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:33,520 Speaker 1: same thing like City was with Leipzig and then you know, 861 00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:35,160 Speaker 1: Belgrade and young boys and then. 862 00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:39,640 Speaker 2: Barity one City had a tough fixture and the super Elites, 863 00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:40,440 Speaker 2: is right. 864 00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:43,440 Speaker 1: It's just like now now we're actually and now we're 865 00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,760 Speaker 1: actually forcing City to play somebody before the knockout, before 866 00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:48,759 Speaker 1: the quarterfinals, which is nice, and. 867 00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,880 Speaker 3: We're gonna get some fun like like I don't know, 868 00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:55,400 Speaker 3: I'm thinking about the matchups in the first week alone, 869 00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:59,879 Speaker 3: right uh am I interested in Dortmund Club Bruges for sure, 870 00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:05,520 Speaker 3: like Bologna Shaktar uh and then you've got Sporting versus Leo. 871 00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:07,080 Speaker 2: Like there's all these like mid. 872 00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:10,839 Speaker 1: Tier body from like one of the pots that you're 873 00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,120 Speaker 1: you're in or even like a pot above or blow 874 00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:15,360 Speaker 1: like that's that's an incredibly important match to you. 875 00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:19,280 Speaker 4: All right. Uh, that'll do it for this our preview. 876 00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:23,680 Speaker 4: We will be back before match week one on the 877 00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:27,319 Speaker 4: other side of the international break. Anthony's gonna be popping 878 00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,239 Speaker 4: in and out for these Champions League previews as well. 879 00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:35,160 Speaker 4: Bija and I will be here next week for a 880 00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:38,319 Speaker 4: look at the chance the Premier League. I'm I might 881 00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,320 Speaker 4: beg out of that. Maybe just have Bija do it 882 00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,440 Speaker 4: with Sam on his own because of my relationship with 883 00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,400 Speaker 4: Everarden right now, and just soccer in general is just 884 00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:46,479 Speaker 4: really at a low point. 885 00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:50,360 Speaker 2: But until then, Sundays from now is the Derby. 886 00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:52,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, we just yeah, it's just I don't know. I 887 00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:56,439 Speaker 1: don't say, Michael, I'm sorry, I'm used to at this point. 888 00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:01,160 Speaker 4: But yeah, the Isle, you know, any Chelse seasons right 889 00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:03,960 Speaker 4: around the corner. The Islanders, the Islanders of that picked 890 00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:05,520 Speaker 4: me up team. 891 00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:07,759 Speaker 1: No, he likes the pain. 892 00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:09,600 Speaker 2: It's become a brighter bes fan or something. 893 00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:11,920 Speaker 1: No, no, he likes the pain. Come on, now, come on, 894 00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:12,799 Speaker 1: he likes the pain. 895 00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:15,480 Speaker 4: Well, we're going to be in League one a couple 896 00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:20,440 Speaker 4: of years. But new stadium though, Yeah, in the new stadium. Anyways, 897 00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:23,719 Speaker 4: that does it for this episode. Thank you for listening, Rate, review, 898 00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:27,080 Speaker 4: and subscribe. Check out Anthony's work at The Ringer, and 899 00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:29,840 Speaker 4: good luck with all your futures bets. We'll see you 900 00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:30,560 Speaker 4: in a couple of days. 901 00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:41,000 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 902 00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:44,200 Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 903 00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:47,520 Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred. 904 00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:48,000 Speaker 2: Gambler