1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:03,440 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 2 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:04,840 Speaker 2: I am joined today. 3 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: By the Super Book at the Westgates own John Murray, 4 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: and we are going to be talking about everyone's new 5 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:12,680 Speaker 1: favorite spring football league, the USFL. 6 00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 2: John, how are you doing today? 7 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 3: I'm good. There's a lot going on, lot going on 8 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 3: in the book today, a lot of baseball going on, 9 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:21,119 Speaker 3: some soccer what I'm getting ready to watch. But you 10 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 3: wanted to talk about the USFL, so I'll do my investment. 11 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 2: That is right. 12 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 1: I mean, these niche sports can really present an opportunity 13 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 1: for gamblers to maybe find a little bit of an 14 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 1: edge over you guys at the book that they wouldn't 15 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 1: have in the hammered out market like the NFL or 16 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: Major League Baseball or even something like Champions League Soccer. 17 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 1: But talking about week one in this league, of course, 18 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 1: for those that don't know, the USFL just got started 19 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: last weekend. The league has eight teams. They're all playing 20 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: this first season in Birmingham. In the opening game, it 21 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: was a barn burner. The Birmingham Stallions took down the 22 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 1: New Jersey Generals twenty eight twenty four in a game 23 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: that I actually came down to the Wires Stallions score 24 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: a walk off TV to win it. Game went over 25 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: it's forty one and a half point total, and the 26 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:08,559 Speaker 1: Stallions covered the two and a half point spread, But. 27 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,760 Speaker 2: The rest of the game's not quite highest scoring. 28 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 1: Gamblers of Houston beat the Michigan Panthers seventeen to twelve, 29 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 1: the New Orleans Breakers beat the Philadelphia Beat beat Philadelphia 30 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: twenty three to seventeen, and the Tampa Bay Bandits they 31 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,400 Speaker 1: beat Pittsburgh seventeen to three. All of the other games 32 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 1: after that first one went under their total. A couple 33 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: got close, but every number was in that forty two, 34 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 1: forty three, forty one and a half kind of range. 35 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 1: Have you seen any action? Did anyone actually get interested 36 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 1: in betting on the league? 37 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 3: Very limited action for Week one to be expected. You know, 38 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 3: nobody really knows anything yet. You can pour over the 39 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 3: rosters as much as you want. We like to go 40 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 3: by which coaches we remember being boneheads in their previous jobs. 41 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 3: But until you actually see these teams play, there's not 42 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 3: a whole lot to go by. You get some arbitrage 43 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 3: betters that were betting the games, betting differences between our 44 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 3: book and another book other than that there really wasn't 45 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 3: a whole lot. I think you're gonna see more as 46 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 3: we get into week two, Week three, week four. Now 47 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 3: people will start to have an opinion because they've watched 48 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 3: these teams play a game or two. But for week one, 49 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 3: it was it was pretty quiet. 50 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 1: Now that can be a double edged sword, the fact 51 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 1: that now people are gonna have more of an opinion, 52 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 1: but at the same time, the book now has a 53 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:22,600 Speaker 1: little more a little more information to go off of. 54 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: Do you think that there is still possibly an edge 55 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: for betters here, especially because it is only one week 56 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 1: sample size? 57 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 2: This is this feels like a great equalizer to me. 58 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 3: Like, definitely, you've got a much better chance. I think 59 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 3: if you really dove into this league and study this league, 60 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 3: do I think you'd have a better chance of winning 61 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 3: it at this than the NFL. Yeah, I do. The 62 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 3: bookmakers don't have time to pour through every ounce of 63 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 3: information about the USFL. There's so much going on right now. 64 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 3: It's an extremely busy month in the sports calendar. There's 65 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 3: so many different sports going on. The USFL is absolutely 66 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 3: not not front of mine for us, so as a 67 00:02:58,440 --> 00:02:59,959 Speaker 3: better if you put it at the front of your mind, 68 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 3: I do think you'd have you could potentially have an edge. 69 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 2: And that is the big thing right there, the fact 70 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 2: that a better. 71 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: Can focus in on a specific sport and potentially get 72 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:11,959 Speaker 1: an edge and an advantage there, because, like you said, 73 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: the book has to put a number up on everything, 74 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: whereas it better doesn't have to take a position on everything. 75 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 1: If they can maybe whittle down their expertise to a 76 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 1: niche sport like the USFL, like championship level second division 77 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 1: soccer in Europe, something like that, a book over here 78 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: not necessarily going to have the sharpest line on that, right. 79 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 3: No, And the books would also tell you that's why 80 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 3: the limits are lower on the USFL. You're not. I 81 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 3: don't know what people are gonna let you get down 82 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 3: around the country right now, but the USFL limits are 83 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 3: going to be microscopic compared to the NFL limits, the 84 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 3: college football limits, because we don't have a great deal 85 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 3: of confidence in the numbers that we're setting on something 86 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 3: like this. We will by the end of the season, 87 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 3: but it's very early right now, and we just we're 88 00:03:57,440 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 3: kind of we're kind of going in blind as well. 89 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 3: We just don't know that much about it. I don't 90 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 3: even know some of these guys are you know, before 91 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 3: we started recording, you were naming quarterbacks the hell's that guy? 92 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 3: They need some more star power if they want to 93 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 3: get the public interested. 94 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 2: I completely agree with you. 95 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: There the two biggest names in this league, it feels 96 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: like going in the Literally the only two I heard 97 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 1: of were Paxton Lynch and Jeff Fisher. 98 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 2: Not exactly not good. 99 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 3: No, Jeff Fisher's funny because he's he still coaches like 100 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 3: it's like nineteen seventy three, which is amusing for me. 101 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 3: But I don't know how far that's going to take 102 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 3: in the USFL. 103 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: And the best part about that is it didn't even 104 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: go well in the USFL. He's already back to his 105 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: losing ways in this new league. But there was a 106 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,720 Speaker 1: quarterback out there named Magoo, and I didn't know there 107 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 1: was any actual human with that last name, And sure enough, 108 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 1: the one of the one of the teams is led 109 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: by a guy going out there with Magoo on the 110 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 1: back of his jersey. 111 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 3: There was a Magoo in the movie school Tize you 112 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,720 Speaker 3: might be too young for that film, this movie that 113 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 3: came out in the early nineties. Never heard of them. 114 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 3: A good football player. I don't know these guys are. 115 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 3: I had the game on yesterday in the background. I 116 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 3: believe it was Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. The coach of 117 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 3: Pittsburgh was very committed to establishing the run. I think 118 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 3: that's why his team ended up scoring three points in 119 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 3: that game. But I wasn't too familiar with the players 120 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 3: on either side. 121 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: Another thing that people aren't really familiar with some of 122 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 1: the rule changes in this new league, because again we 123 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 1: haven't seen as much hype about it. We remember the 124 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 1: XFL and the AAF, how they were really full bore 125 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: about this is what makes us different from the NFL. 126 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 1: There were still a couple of cool things that I 127 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: kind of liked that the NFL should take away. 128 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,039 Speaker 2: Number one being they kind of incorporated. 129 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:47,919 Speaker 1: The tennis judgment line system into making first down decisions. 130 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 2: Believe that's something in the NFL should immediately below, we need. 131 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 3: That Santus has the best instant replay of any league, 132 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 3: any sports. I should say it just they just show 133 00:05:58,160 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 3: the replay. It's all. You have the balls in the round. 134 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 3: It's not as whereas like the NFL has the worst. 135 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 3: Right you get an eighty nine year old guy running 136 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 3: over to a three inch monitor to review the call 137 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 3: that he just made in the freezing cold weather. The 138 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 3: NFL is the worst, although soccer is rapidly catching them 139 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 3: with their horrendous var system. But NFL does a terrible 140 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 3: job at that. So maybe they should borrow that from 141 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:22,840 Speaker 3: the USFL. 142 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 1: I completely agree some of the other things that might 143 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 1: actually influence the lines that we see on these games. 144 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 1: You can actually attempt a three point conversion from the ten, which. 145 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 3: Then the AAF do that. I thought the AAF had 146 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:40,919 Speaker 3: a similar system where you could go for extra points. 147 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 3: I can't remember. 148 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 2: I think they did. 149 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,280 Speaker 1: Of course, we know that that didn't help AAF totals, 150 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 1: but it does change what the key numbers are. Of 151 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: course in football, three seven those are key numbers that 152 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: you look at and go, okay, well, this is what 153 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 1: you're looking for when it crosses that number. Now, all 154 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:01,479 Speaker 1: of a sudden, the potential of three point conversion for 155 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: you guys in the books, that does kind of change 156 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: what you're supposed to make. 157 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 2: That what you're supposed to look at as key numbers. 158 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 3: Right, And we go through that in the NFL preseason 159 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 3: where no one's gonna play for a tie. So the 160 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 3: three becomes a little bit less significant stuff like that 161 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 3: we've dealt we've dealt with before. But yeah, there's gonna 162 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 3: be a there's gonna be a level of a process 163 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 3: of catching up for us with this new league. It 164 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 3: just it's gonna depend a little bit on how much 165 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 3: people are betting on it. Like how much time are 166 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 3: we really going to devote to learning all this stuff 167 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 3: If the handle remains very minimal, probably not much. You know, 168 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 3: that first game was on Saturday. Look what else was 169 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 3: going on on Saturday? We had NBA playoffs started, There 170 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 3: was a big Golden Nights game. Here was a road 171 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 3: game for the Nights, but that's a big deal in 172 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,239 Speaker 3: Las Vegas. We had a full day of Major League Baseball, 173 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 3: We had a UFC card, and we had that Spence 174 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 3: fight that we took a ton of handle on. There 175 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 3: just wasn't that much time to think about the USFL. 176 00:07:57,760 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 3: It just it's like not even a second or third 177 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 3: your sport right now. 178 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 1: And one of the things that you talked about that 179 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 1: I want to circle back on on this is arbitrage 180 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 1: betters and how they're going to look for a number 181 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 1: at your book and then look and see if they 182 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: can compare it to other books with a sport like this, 183 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 1: where we have a brand new league, different books are 184 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 1: gonna have different opinions and set different lines. There's more 185 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: of an opportunity for this in these first couple of weeks, right. 186 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 3: I think that there will be. It just depends on 187 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 3: how big of a how big of a stance the 188 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 3: different books want to take, and the arbitrage betters are 189 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 3: always going to be there if they if they can 190 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 3: take plus two and lay minus one, they're going to 191 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 3: do it. They don't care what the sport is. They're 192 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 3: probably not even watching the games. They just see those 193 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 3: differences and they better. I don't know. We'll see. We'll 194 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 3: see how opinionated the books want to be on this league. 195 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 3: That will be interesting to follow here as we as 196 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 3: we move forward. But the one thing that works against 197 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 3: the arbitrage betters in the USFL is the lower limits. 198 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 3: You know those guys that you always see crying about 199 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 3: limits on Twitter or whatever other channels they're on. It's 200 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 3: usually because they're not actually gambling at all. They're they're 201 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 3: just playing both sides and locking in a profit. So 202 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:08,200 Speaker 3: of course they wanted bet as much as they can 203 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 3: makes I mean, I don't blame them. I would too 204 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 3: if that's how I was betting. But at the USFL, 205 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 3: I don't think you're going to see those really super 206 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 3: high limits. So I'm not sure how high or how 207 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 3: much time the arbitrage betters are going to invest in it, because, 208 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:21,319 Speaker 3: like I said, there's a lot of there's a lot 209 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 3: of other major sports going on right now. 210 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: But at the same time, if someone who's maybe a 211 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: little lower of a limit gambler, someone who's comfortable with 212 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: the ten twenty fifty dollars bet, that's going to be 213 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: well under those limits. If they really want to dive 214 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:37,719 Speaker 1: in and start looking at some of these players in 215 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,960 Speaker 1: this league, they're going to be able to maybe find 216 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: that edge of saying, oh, well, the books, the books 217 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: are high on this team, but they're not actually as 218 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: good you can find. 219 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 3: That we've seen in the past guys that specialize in 220 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:57,079 Speaker 3: maybe a specific college basketball conference for example, And if 221 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 3: you spend all of your time studying eight teams this 222 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 3: one league, the bookmakers don't have that much time on 223 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:04,839 Speaker 3: their hands. Probably, I don't know how, Maybe some of 224 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 3: these bigger companies, these huge teams, maybe they do have 225 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 3: a USFL trading team. I doubt it's but it's possible. 226 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:12,840 Speaker 3: But I do think that you're right. If you were 227 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 3: to spend all your time pouring through these box scores 228 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,319 Speaker 3: and really studying this league, you would definitely give yourself 229 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 3: a leg. 230 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 1: Up now looking at some of the trends. Obviously, we 231 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 1: have one week of games, so you can't really establish 232 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: many trends within this league, but we can look back 233 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: at the ghost of Spring League's past, the AAF, the 234 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 1: XFL that we've talked about, and if you remember the AF, 235 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 1: by the time they closed down, Rest in Peace, everyone 236 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: and their mother was betting unders because we were getting 237 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: games where neither team could get a button could cross 238 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:47,319 Speaker 1: into double digits. Only one game in the last two 239 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 1: weeks of that season went above forty points. Do you 240 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:51,440 Speaker 1: think that we're going to start maybe seeing some of 241 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 1: these teams now that there is some tape on them 242 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 1: for defensive coordinators in the. 243 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 2: League to look at. 244 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 1: Do you think that we're gonna start seeing totals start 245 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: to drift down as scoring drifts down. 246 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 3: We'll see because normally these leagues, they have an emphasis 247 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 3: and they want to make it high scoring. I know 248 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 3: the AAF specifically. I actually went and visited San Antonio 249 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 3: and met with the AAF guys before that season that 250 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:19,199 Speaker 3: league started, and they were telling us how they specifically 251 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 3: were going to try to make the league high scoring. 252 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 3: That didn't work. I know that the USFL probably is 253 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 3: going to be attempting to do the same thing. I'd 254 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 3: be careful just blindly betting everything under because for one thing, 255 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 3: a lot of other people are going to be planning 256 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 3: on doing that, and the books are going to start 257 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 3: to adjust. So you talk about games where the totals 258 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 3: open like in the fifties, I think for Week one 259 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 3: they're not going to open that high again. So be 260 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 3: careful of betting under. It's not the same thing when 261 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 3: you're betting under thirty six and a half or even 262 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 3: potentially even lower. Eventually the market's going to. 263 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: Overcorrect, exactly. And you talk about that the massive swing 264 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 1: we saw. There were games that opened in the fifties 265 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: for this league and not a single game of closed 266 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 1: above forty three and a half points. So the market 267 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:10,080 Speaker 1: was very aggressive and adjusting. You guys moved those numbers because. 268 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,559 Speaker 3: You need to have you have a sport like this. 269 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 3: You don't in the NFL if you've got a total 270 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 3: of fifty four guy bets, you ownder you go to 271 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 3: fifty three and a half and something like this, you 272 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:22,560 Speaker 3: don't have a great deal of confidence in that total. 273 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 3: That you said, you're still learning yourself, so you need 274 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:26,680 Speaker 3: to be a little more aggressive in the way you 275 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:28,319 Speaker 3: move the lines. So you need to think outside the 276 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 3: box a little bit. 277 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 1: Do you think we're gonna see more aggressive line movement 278 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 1: in week two as well? Or it's a process right 279 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:36,079 Speaker 1: over time that'll start to cool. 280 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 3: Well as we Eventually there will be some sharp opinions 281 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 3: in this market that are established, and when those people 282 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 3: start making their bets, then you're going to see aggressive moves. 283 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 3: I remember we had a guy in the AAF that 284 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 3: was seemed to always be on the right side, and 285 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 3: we started moving very aggressively off his bets. And in 286 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 3: the past arena football, we had guys who were betting 287 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 3: arena football totals with great success, and we would move 288 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:02,079 Speaker 3: very aggressively off their place. So once we start to 289 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:05,600 Speaker 3: see some real sharp players enter this market, you'll see 290 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 3: them numbers move pretty quickly. I'm not talking about the 291 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 3: arbitrage players. They don't have any opinion they're just playing differences. Yeah, 292 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 3: I'm talking about an actual sharp originator. When those guys emerge, 293 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 3: we'll move pretty fast. 294 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 2: Now. 295 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: You talked about how the league lacks some of the 296 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:25,559 Speaker 1: more quality players that even the XFL had. 297 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 2: Remember Cardile Jones was playing that in that league. 298 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 1: Heck, Johnny Manzel threw a touchdown pass that Terrell Owens 299 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:32,440 Speaker 1: in the Fan Controlled. 300 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 2: Football League this weekend. 301 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: The USFL not quite on that, like we said Paxton 302 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: Lynch and Jeff Fisher. But I feel like when you 303 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 1: talk about the AAF and how they said we want 304 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 1: to create scoring. We want these games to be high 305 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 1: scoring and exciting. The thing that they ran into the 306 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 1: most was bad quarterback play. I feel like we're running 307 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 1: into the same thing here. However, what we saw from 308 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:57,000 Speaker 1: League one, I think the biggest two takeaways we're number one. 309 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 1: The amount of scoop and score touchdowns after quarterback fumbled 310 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 1: in the pocket where ridiculously high. I feel like there 311 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 1: was at least one per game. And kickers where at 312 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: trosh is just like. 313 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 2: In the NFL. 314 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:10,560 Speaker 1: Do you think that some of the bad quarterback play 315 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: can actually be balanced out by the fact that offenses 316 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 1: are giving the ball to the other team rather than 317 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 1: simply not being a scoring. 318 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 3: Punting it away turnovers will help the over for sure. 319 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 3: I mean giving the offensive short fields. But I mean, 320 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 3: one thing we do know is there's not thirty two 321 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 3: men in this world that can play quarterback at a 322 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 3: high level. But the NFL, we know not every team 323 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 3: in the NFL has a high level quarterback. So you 324 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 3: talk about having a second football league, where are you 325 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 3: going to find someone to be the quarterback of these 326 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 3: teams the NFL can't even fill. They're starting in backup positions. 327 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 3: So bad quarterback play I think is going to continue 328 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 3: to be a staple of the USFL. But yes, of 329 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 3: course short fields or defensive touchdowns can certainly help the 330 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 3: over There's no doubt about that. 331 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 2: John. 332 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 1: My last question for you here, what do you think 333 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 1: think are some of the biggest challenges for you guys 334 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: in the book to set these numbers for a league 335 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 1: that you know nothing about. How is it that you 336 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: even go about looking. 337 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 2: At the league? 338 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 1: What do you compare it to to start making those 339 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 1: predictions and set those numbers like you had to for 340 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: a week one, we looked at. 341 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 3: The QBS, We looked at the coaches, you know, you 342 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 3: always want to look at the coaches and you remember 343 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 3: making terrible decisions in the past, and then eventually we 344 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 3: have a set of power ratings that were going by 345 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 3: the biggest difference is you need to be pretty fluid 346 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 3: and aggressive with adjusting those power ratings. You know, if 347 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 3: you you might make some pretty big adjustments from one 348 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 3: week to the next, which you wouldn't really do in 349 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 3: the NFL unless a quarterback got hurt. 350 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 2: Mm hm. 351 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: That makes perfect sense to me. John, Thank you so 352 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 1: much for joining us here today. Where can people find 353 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 1: you on the Twitter screen? 354 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 3: Find me? I don't know. I don't know that why 355 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 3: anybody would want to follow me. I am at Vegas, 356 00:15:55,640 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 3: Murray follow at super Book Sports. At super Book Sports, 357 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 3: We're open in Colorado, Arizona, New Jersey, of course, Nevada. 358 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 3: We're going live in Tennessee like this week, and we're 359 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 3: gonna be live in some other states later this year. 360 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 3: So hope to be in eight or nine states by 361 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 3: the time the NFL starts this fall. 362 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 2: Congratulations, that is awesome, And. 363 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 1: Of course, if you guys are here in Vegas, head 364 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 1: on down to the West Gate. The super Book is 365 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: nothing short of the greatest place to watch sports, even 366 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: if there's nothing on at the moment. Seriously, you got 367 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: to take a walk down there and just look at 368 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 1: that place, because it really is a marvel John, thank 369 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 1: you so much, Guys, thank you so much for checking 370 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 1: us out today. Don't forget, of course, hit that like 371 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: button below. It has been a pleasure being here with 372 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 1: you and we'll see you next time.