WEBVTT - How Tesla Became Elon’s Collateral Damage 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.080 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.160 --> 0:00:09.760 Let me tell you we have a new star. 0:00:10.760 --> 0:00:15.200 A star is born Elon On mars Juson Kennedy. He 0:00:15.360 --> 0:00:18.760 is the Thomas Edison plus plus plus of our age. 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:21.240 Probably his whole life is from a position of insecurity. 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:23.440 I feel for the guy. I would say ninety eight 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:26.800 percent really appreciate what he does. But those two percent 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:30.120 that are nasty, they are. I'll be in four post. 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:32.560 We are meant for great things in the United States 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:34.800 of America, and Elon reminds us. 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:38.760 Of that we don't have a fourth branch of governments 0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:40.839 called Elon Musk. 0:00:46.240 --> 0:00:50.520 Welcome to Elanik Bloomberg's weekly podcast about Elon Musk. It's Tuesday, 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:55.520 March fourth. I'm your host, David Papadopolis. So as Elon 0:00:55.680 --> 0:00:58.880 has been exploring his new life as a government worker 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:01.840 at the share price of his publicly traded company, Tesla 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:05.760 has been on a wild ride. The stock skyrocketed after 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:10.400 Trump's selection, but recently it's been in freefall and Elon 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:15.440 is become increasingly the target for Democrat protesters. Every weekend, 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:17.760 more people have showed up at Tesla dealerships across the 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:23.119 US marching, chanting, vandalizing, and overseas it might even be worse. 0:01:23.680 --> 0:01:27.400 Tesla sales have collapsed in Europe. Could the Trump trade 0:01:27.400 --> 0:01:30.759 be a bad deal for Elon and his investors? And 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:33.920 then we'll look at some new feuds. Finally, some new 0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:36.960 feuds appearing on the horizon. For Elon. It's no longer 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:40.000 the tech CEOs that he's beefing with, they've pretty much 0:01:40.040 --> 0:01:43.000 all fallen in line behind him and Trump, but instead 0:01:43.000 --> 0:01:48.320 its entire international alliances. And lastly we hear some truly 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:53.560 wild state of the Union Elon predictions. So to discuss 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:59.560 all things Tesla, we are joined by the Bloomberg Global 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:03.720 Autos are in London, Craig Trudell. Craig Hello there, sir, Hello, 0:02:04.120 --> 0:02:06.480 and we have our regulars of course, as always with 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:09.880 us here Max Chafkin in the studio with me. Max, Hey, David, 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:14.720 and Dana Hall beaming in from California. Dana, Hello, Hey, David. Okay, 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:18.320 So for all of you some numbers first, to get 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:20.760 a bit of a perspective about just how crazy this 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:23.400 ride has been. From the run up to the election 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:26.880 back in the summer to the post election peak. The 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:30.400 Tesla stock price almost tripled just it was in an 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:34.680 absolute tear. Since that peak, it's been pretty darn ugly 0:02:34.919 --> 0:02:38.080 down over two hundred dollars per share, a drop of 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:41.919 nearly fifty percent, much of it coming since the inauguration, 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:44.720 and the stock is now essentially back at the level 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:48.880 it was on election Day. It's plummeting again today, down 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:52.920 roughly seven percent or so this morning, as we're recording 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:56.640 part of a broader route across markets here in the 0:02:56.639 --> 0:02:59.239 wake of the Trump tariffs. But also there were some 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:03.440 really bad sales numbers for Tesla out of China overnight. Now, Craig, 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:07.080 you've seen a lot of wild gyrations during your time 0:03:07.120 --> 0:03:11.640 covering Kesla, but even by those standards, this is pretty dramatic. 0:03:11.919 --> 0:03:13.480 What the hell is going on here? 0:03:14.760 --> 0:03:19.239 I think we're seeing a dramatic rethinking of whether it's 0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:23.800 such a good thing that Elon Musk has so emphatically 0:03:23.919 --> 0:03:27.320 thrown his dark Maga hat in with President Trump. 0:03:27.400 --> 0:03:29.600 So I mean, I remember, again at the very beginning, Craig, 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:33.480 the market was adamant that it was a brilliant idea. 0:03:33.560 --> 0:03:36.280 The market bid the stock up furiously in the first 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:37.920 couple of weeks after the election. 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:41.120 Absolutely, I think the instant analysis, the sort of knee 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:44.000 jerk reaction to this was, how can it possibly be 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:47.960 a bad thing to be incredibly close to the most 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:51.280 powerful person in the world, to essentially, you know, be 0:03:51.640 --> 0:03:55.960 his first buddy, to be his cabinet mate. I think everybody, 0:03:56.880 --> 0:03:59.960 I'm sure was clear eyed months ago that you know, 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:05.400 Trump was not necessarily, you know, wildly popular. He's very polarizing. 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:09.160 But I think if you told people in October or 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:12.040 early November that Trump and Musk were going to do 0:04:12.120 --> 0:04:14.160 some of the things they've done in the first I 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:17.080 think we're six weeks in now of this presidency, you know, 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:20.200 people would have said, you know, you've got Trump derangement syndrome. 0:04:20.240 --> 0:04:23.880 I think they've been really really aggressive, very sort of 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:27.720 stick it in your face, and I think we are seeing, 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:30.480 you know, you can't really sort of take it out 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:34.440 on SpaceX, right. I suppose you can leave X or Twitter. 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:36.880 A lot of people have already done that. If you 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:39.720 really want to stick it to elon you, you stick 0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:43.000 it to his most valuable company that has cars all 0:04:43.040 --> 0:04:46.159 over the place. And we're seeing that, We're seeing, you know, 0:04:46.240 --> 0:04:50.000 dozens of protests across the US. I think we're also 0:04:50.080 --> 0:04:53.680 seeing you know, even some of of Tesla's own customers 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:58.680 putting different companies' badges onto their cars so that people 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:01.800 think they're driving them Mazda or a BMW instead of 0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:02.400 a Model three. 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:04.520 It's it's wait, wait a minute, wait a minute, tell 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:07.240 me more about that. How does that? A? How exactly 0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:10.440 does that work? And B does it work? Is someone like, oh, 0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:12.600 that's a nice Mazda. And by the way, who wants 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:20.919 a nice Maza? Hey, don maza clugged my Mazda. You 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:23.640 just wait a minute. So you turned your Tesla into 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:25.080 a Masa? Is that what you're saying? 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:26.760 No, no, no, no, sir. 0:05:27.240 --> 0:05:29.440 But but I mean, I think it's a pretty simple 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:32.080 deal of of you sort of you know, chip off 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:35.400 your your t dcal off of the back of your vehicle. 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:37.159 You put on a different badge. 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:39.960 Those you know, you can buy those in the aftermarket 0:05:40.000 --> 0:05:42.919 pretty cheaply, and you just hope people don't notice. 0:05:42.680 --> 0:05:45.800 But that they're not thrown by the by the body 0:05:45.800 --> 0:05:46.440 type of the car. 0:05:46.520 --> 0:05:48.840 There is a cyber truck that is around here around 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:49.760 our office in New York. 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:51.040 You thought it was a four F one. 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:55.080 No, it has a old school Toyota logo of a tailgate. 0:05:55.560 --> 0:05:57.760 And I don't think they're trying to trick anybody, but 0:05:57.920 --> 0:05:59.760 I do think it looks kind of cool. 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:03.239 That is that is there you go, Max on Craig's 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:06.480 point that he made at the beginning, you know, when 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:09.480 we had that wild run up in November and into 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:12.920 early December, I actually believe if you pull the tape 0:06:13.040 --> 0:06:16.200 on this show, we said, this seems like a fine 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:19.800 idea in the abstract, like is a very you know, 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:22.599 an investing thesis, like you know, yeah, his first buddy 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:25.920 super close to power as an abstract investing thesis. It 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:28.480 sort of seemed like it worked, but we did keep saying, well, 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:30.920 what the hell does that look like in the nitty gritty. 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:33.839 One hundred percent? And I've made this point before, but like, 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:37.320 the main rationale for the run up in the price 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:40.520 was that somehow Donald Trump was going to be good 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:44.400 for Elon Musk's robotaxi ambitions, but it was not at 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:47.480 all clear how he would be good. Like if Donald 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:50.840 Trump like waves a magic wand and legalizes like cyber 0:06:50.880 --> 0:06:53.680 trucks for cybercabs, yeah, you still got to produce, you 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:57.040 gotta make one, and they still haven't done that, and 0:06:57.120 --> 0:07:00.159 so that's a problem. And then I do think what 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:04.320 Craig is saying is true. Right, the sort of volume 0:07:05.000 --> 0:07:08.520 of and sort of the energy from Musk is more 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:11.440 aggressive than we would have expected, maybe more polarizing than 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:14.720 we expected. I also think that what Musk is doing 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:18.520 is cutting against his own brand in ways that are 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:22.480 very harmful. Not just not just because Tesla has a 0:07:22.520 --> 0:07:25.520 lot of left wing customers and those customers are now 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:27.560 very mad and they want to protest or cover up 0:07:27.600 --> 0:07:31.600 the Tesla logos, but also because Musk's personal brand and 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:34.800 like what made him appealing was like inventing stuff and 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:37.720 coming up with And now obviously there are you can 0:07:37.760 --> 0:07:39.960 debate just how much inventing he actually did or whatever, 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:42.720 But this is a guy who's made his thing creating 0:07:42.760 --> 0:07:45.480 new products, and all of a sudden he's sort of 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:48.960 couse playing as one of the consultants from office Space. 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:51.280 I mean to the point where he's like literally wearing 0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:54.720 it as a slogan, almost forgetting that those guys were 0:07:54.720 --> 0:07:57.400 not cool in office space, like people do not necessarily. 0:07:57.600 --> 0:08:00.120 So in addition to all the polarization, you also so 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:04.080 just have this kind of like brand confusion and all along. 0:08:04.120 --> 0:08:05.880 And I'm sure Dan is about to say this, but 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:09.000 Tesla's actual sales, the actual numbers that are coming out 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:10.280 of this company have been bad. 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:13.000 Yeah, I mean, and to Max's point, he's sort of, 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:16.400 you know, flinging around a chainsaw and really embracing this 0:08:16.600 --> 0:08:20.200 role as this destroyer of the federal government and like 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:23.840 moving fast and breaking things and firing people. And let 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:25.800 me tell you, people do not buy cars when they're 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:28.840 worried about the economy, when they're worried about losing their job, 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:32.160 when they are worried about interest rates, when they're worried 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:34.319 about their four oh one k going up in smoke. 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:37.679 Yeah, it's been a pretty brutal sell off, yes, yeah. 0:08:37.679 --> 0:08:40.000 And to be clear, and Craig knows as well, the 0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:44.320 first quarter is always like the worst for car sales typically, right, Like, 0:08:44.440 --> 0:08:46.640 you know, there's a lot of incentives to clear out 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:48.480 inventory at the end of the year, so the fourth 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:51.640 quarter is typically very strong. The first quarter is typically 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:54.160 very slow. But what you're seeing out of the Tesla 0:08:54.240 --> 0:08:57.720 numbers now is like despite all of these incentives, free 0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:01.400 supercharging and YadA YadA, like they are not moving metal 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:04.600 and their lineup is really old and the cyber truck 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:07.160 sales are very weak. And it's not just in the 0:09:07.200 --> 0:09:09.920 United States where musk is very polarizing, it's in Europe 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:12.840 and it's in China. Like those are the big three markets. 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:15.280 So the first quarter is going to be super ugly. 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:18.360 If we can go back also, and I hate to 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:21.800 talk up myself here, but if you go to the 0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:24.800 year end clips max, Okay, when everybody may prediction, no, 0:09:25.160 --> 0:09:27.559 I made a lot of bad, bad predictions, including my 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:31.120 Kentucky Derby pick, which isn't looking good at all. But 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:37.079 I did predict a convergence in the valuations of Tesla 0:09:37.240 --> 0:09:40.439 and SpaceX, and man, if you would put that trade on, 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:44.360 if you'd gone short Tesla long SpaceX, holy smokes, you'd 0:09:44.360 --> 0:09:45.880 be retiring. It's looking good. 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:48.320 I mean, I think we're there's still quite a gap 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:51.440 between the you know, reported valuation of SpaceX and the 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:54.600 current valuation of Tesla. You know, nearly four hundred billion 0:09:54.640 --> 0:09:57.600 for SpaceX, a little more than eight hundred billion for 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:01.679 Tesla last I checked. But still they've that gap has closed. 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:03.680 And I think the issue is, you know, Craig brought 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:07.360 this up, but like being the first buddy is great 0:10:07.640 --> 0:10:09.640 and I think it really impressed investor. But the problem 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:13.520 is that is an unpaid position, and and to monetize 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:17.280 that position, Elon Musk has limited options, Like there are 0:10:17.320 --> 0:10:22.520 ways that SpaceX SpaceX can monetize Musk's access. Tesla has 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:25.679 really struggled. And there was this, like, you know, this 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:28.720 weird story that we talked about weeks ago on the 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:33.560 podcast about the State Department maybe putting an item in 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:35.720 a spreadsheet saying was gonna buy four hundred million dollars 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:37.280 worth of cyber trucks and. 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:40.160 That'll but even so, that ain't much, number one, That's 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:42.840 not much, and we're and that is sort of turning 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:44.200 into like a mini scandal. 0:10:44.800 --> 0:10:49.760 Earlier today or yesterday, Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal sent a 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:51.120 letter basically saying, we need. 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:51.679 To explain this. 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:56.280 You see, like it's gonna be hard for Musk to 0:10:56.280 --> 0:10:59.439 to monetize this without creating even more. 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:01.440 From the Tesla side. 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:03.240 From the Tesla side, but you know, I think even 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:05.240 from the SpaceX side, frankly, I think, but I think 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:07.600 it's easier from the space SpaceX has a much easier 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:08.360 so hard. 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:11.520 To monetize there. But but dan As Craig was alluding 0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:16.040 to earlier It's really easy because Tesla is such a 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:19.120 you know, a is a is a consumer product for 0:11:19.200 --> 0:11:21.720 consumers to take it out on the brand in a 0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:24.920 way that you know, SpaceX is largely shielded from that, right, 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:26.000 you cannot punish it. 0:11:26.000 --> 0:11:28.280 I mean, I suppose you, if you were really angry, 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:30.480 you could like show up at the beach in Boca 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:33.160 Chica and try to like swing by in your boat 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:35.440 with a protest sign or fly a bunch of drones 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:37.880 or something. But but yeah, I mean the thing about 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:41.600 Tesla showrooms is that they are in visible locations in 0:11:41.760 --> 0:11:45.320 congressional districts all across the country. And you know this 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:48.600 whole quote unquote Tesla takedown protests. It's like a very 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:52.920 easy way for like the average citizen to participate in 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:57.040 something visible and the anchor is really about Doge. I mean, 0:11:57.720 --> 0:11:59.280 I went to the one in Berkeley a couple of 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:01.679 weeks ago, and you know, it's all these people. Some 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:03.800 of them owned Teslas, some of them didn't, but they're 0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:07.280 very upset about what Trump and Musk are doing Visa 0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:10.040 VI Doge. And you can like go to the showroom 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:11.760 and then you can go out to lunch like this 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:14.280 is like the way that a lot of people are participating. 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:16.560 But I think you know, the other thing to just 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:21.360 remember about Tesla and sales is that Elon's politics aside, 0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:24.520 the company has a really stale lineup. The cyber truck 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:27.400 is not doing well, so that is like the main thing. 0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:29.880 Like there are a lot of other electric vehicles on 0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:33.120 the market now and if you care about climate and 0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:35.840 want to buy an EV Tesla is no longer the 0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:36.920 game and talent. 0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:39.680 Well guess because Musk kind of bet on this idea 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:41.880 that he didn't need to refresh the lineup, like he 0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:46.400 thought that cars were essentially like software, you could just 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:48.600 update him the iPhone pretty much looks the same as 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:51.640 it's always you know, it's always looked, and that, you know, 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:55.920 basically the halo around the company was going to lift 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:59.400 it and make it possible to basically have an iPhone 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:02.040 of cars. Like if you look way back before we 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:06.080 started hearing the Robotaxi story, that was the extreme bowl 0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:09.160 case for Tesla. It was that it was going to 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:11.319 change the paradigm of the car business. 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:13.439 The hardware didn't matter anymore. All that mattered was a 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:14.160 solid That. 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:17.720 Story was like really dependent on the Elon Musk brand 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:21.480 on Elon Musk as this innovator, as this as this 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:23.720 guy who was bringing the world to this world of 0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:26.800 abundance and cleaner technology and all those things, and now 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:29.560 he stands, you know, for something else. And it seems 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:33.640 like Elon Musk is trying, at least to some extent, 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:34.240 to address this. 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:34.480 You know. 0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:39.360 He went on Joe Rogan's podcast again, over three hours long. Again, 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:43.600 it's kind of my day on Friday was just sort 0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:46.880 of waiting for the guillotine to fall, you know, I 0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:50.840 have to drop everything and listen to this. But anyway, 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.640 it really seemed like the point of the interview. They talked, 0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:56.520 they talked, they hit all the usual Rogan topics. They 0:13:56.600 --> 0:13:59.320 talked about flying saucers, they talked about is there a 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:03.319 secret repulsion system. I can't remember if they hit ancient 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:06.160 aliens or not, but I would be just absolutely shocked 0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:09.120 if they didn't somehow. But it seemed like the real 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:12.480 point of the appearance was essentially to deny that he 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:17.200 had made a Nazi salute at the inauguration. Rogan kind 0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:19.640 of backed him up on that. They moved on from 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:23.360 it very quickly. It didn't it wasn't didn't feel super 0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:27.080 enthusiastic on Rogan's part, but they sort of got through it, 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:29.800 and it really seemed like an effort to address some 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:32.720 of these slogans that are being chanted by protesters, as 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.400 well as the ad campaign we talked about the other day, 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:38.880 you know, where people were putting up these posters say 0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:42.960 calling the Tesla a swastikar, in reference, of course to 0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:46.600 Elon Musk's gesture at the inauguration, which he said was 0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:47.680 not a Nazi salute. 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:55.920 For the record, right now, Craig, back to you. Give 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:58.480 us the latest update on sales numbers out of Europe. 0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:03.680 I know they were starting to look gram they're really Graham. 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:03.920 We have. 0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:06.320 Have we had any fresh reports in recent days? 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:09.840 Yeah, I mean I do want to just quickly, you know, 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:12.080 go back to when Dana was talking about how the 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:15.240 first quarter is always seasonally really slow for Tesla but 0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:18.640 also for the industry. Last year, the first quarter was 0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:22.040 really crummy for Tesla. So not only are the numbers 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:24.880 I'm about to share not good, but they're sort of, 0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:28.400 you know, off of an already depressing level. And so 0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:31.680 you know, in January we saw a forty five percent 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:36.000 drop across Europe just for that month, some of the 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:39.960 biggest markets in Europe, you know, down sixty three percent 0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:44.600 in France, down fifty nine percent in Germany. In February, 0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:47.640 we are just starting to get reports for a couple 0:15:47.680 --> 0:15:51.640 of the biggest markets in France down twenty six percent, 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:56.320 So I guess that's you know, you know, incrementally some improvement, 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.360 but that's still you know, year to date is a 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:03.640 pretty ugly figure. They're down dramatically in Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:07.480 And we'll get some figures from Germany and the UK 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:11.160 on Wednesday. And then I think we mentioned already in China. 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:13.840 You know, the wholesales figures out of China. 0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:16.480 Yeah, yeah, now explain those numbers. So those are different 0:16:16.600 --> 0:16:19.880 than the numbers you were just describing out of Europe, 0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:20.520 is that right. 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:21.920 Yeah, that's right. 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:25.160 So in Europe we're talking about registrations, so that's actually 0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:28.000 you know, cars being registered and handed over to consumers. 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:33.360 In terms of in China, these wholesales, this is basically 0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:37.280 shipments from the factory that Tesla has in Shanghai. So 0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:42.520 this is more akin to production than it is retail sales. 0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:45.760 And so I do think one point that we absolutely 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:48.840 have to mention is that there is this real question 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:52.600 of how much of this is elon sort of self 0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:55.720 owning and how much of this is. 0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:57.280 A model why issue? 0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:00.000 And we should note that as stale as the lineup 0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:03.400 is that the company is giving a facelift to the 0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:06.520 Model Y that is far and away their most important vehicle, 0:17:07.160 --> 0:17:10.879 and you know, having a multi week shutdown of the 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:13.920 Model Y was a big factor in why wholesales were 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:17.919 down forty nine percent in February. The question, of course 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:20.720 is how much of that is you know, disruption and 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:23.640 the time it takes to rent back up from that disruption, 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:27.040 and how much of it is also you know, not 0:17:27.240 --> 0:17:30.399 feeling the need to crank out as many Model threes 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:32.840 because that hasn't been in strong demand. 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:36.000 That production is both for sale in China and then 0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:39.520 for export to some of their export markets, including Europe, 0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:43.960 including Europe, right I see now, Dan, So while all 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:47.160 this is happening, while the stock is giving it up 0:17:47.280 --> 0:17:50.320 in a big way, Must came out in recent days 0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:54.040 and eked a not a forecast, but in ambition they 0:17:54.080 --> 0:17:57.640 hope and aspiration that the stock would rise to seven 0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:00.679 hundred dollars over in coming years a rally of one 0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:04.240 thousand percent Dana Hall, and I'm like, hmm, this seems 0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:06.200 like the old Carnival Barker at work here. 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:09.119 Yeah. I mean he's sort of said this before. I 0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:11.760 mean he said multiple times that, like, Tesla has the 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:14.439 potential to be the most valuable company in the world, 0:18:14.480 --> 0:18:17.120 and it's going to pend depend on strong it's execution, 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:19.280 but he's optimistic that there's a path to get there. 0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:21.919 Blah blah blah. I mean, it's all about Tesla as 0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:24.960 an AI company. And I think the truth is Elon 0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:28.040 Busk is bored of cars, like he is bored of 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.720 building cars. The future of the company is all about 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:35.040 the Robotaxi. We reported last week exclusively that Tesla has 0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:37.159 applied for a permit to kind of get into the 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:41.159 right hailing business in California. They have not They have 0:18:41.280 --> 0:18:44.440 not talked at all about really their future product lineup. 0:18:44.520 --> 0:18:46.080 Like they're supposed to be coming out with a more 0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:50.080 affordable version. People think it's like a decontented Model Y, 0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:52.399 or maybe it's a cheaper car, or maybe it's just 0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:54.600 the robotaxi. But there hasn't been a lot of visibility 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.960 into like what their product pipeline is they showed off 0:18:58.000 --> 0:19:00.600 like a van at some point we have heard anything 0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:03.040 else about the van. So just this whole idea that 0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:05.480 this is a car company with like a whole product 0:19:05.560 --> 0:19:08.840 cycle of cars. They're not talking about that. Elon is 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:13.560 only talking about AI and Grock and Doge. And he's 0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:16.800 been in Washington, d C. Basically since the election. He's 0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:19.760 been in DC or Texas or mar Alago. 0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:22.560 Yeah, you know, he indeed is acting, as you said, 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:24.919 like a board car maker. And you know, Max, it 0:19:24.960 --> 0:19:28.240 reminds me of an old Gabrielle Garcia Marquez line, which 0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:32.040 is a board writer makes for a board reader. And 0:19:32.040 --> 0:19:33.720 in this case, yea, I would say a board car 0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:36.920 maker makes for a board car driver. You know, it 0:19:37.240 --> 0:19:41.320 seems like between the you know, the political pushback against 0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:43.520 him and the fact that he doesn't really seem to 0:19:43.640 --> 0:19:47.000 much care about cars right now, is not a great mix. 0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:50.919 Yeah, one hundred percent. And even I think part of 0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:53.960 the problem here with the stock is that, in addition 0:19:54.040 --> 0:19:56.199 to the sales problems that we've been talking about, in 0:19:56.200 --> 0:19:59.200 addition to the challenges with the lineup that you're kind 0:19:59.200 --> 0:20:03.400 of bringing up, they're behind on robotaxis. So even if 0:20:03.440 --> 0:20:07.199 Elon Musk hits this very ambitious goal of launching a 0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:12.679 robotaxi service in Austin, Texas in June, he's behind today 0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:15.680 or yesterday. This week, you know, Uber and Weimo announced 0:20:15.720 --> 0:20:18.479 that they've they've been testing Weimo's been testing in Austin 0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:22.200 for some time. They are going to open Weaimo up 0:20:22.280 --> 0:20:26.080 to customers shortly so, so they've gotten beat to that market. 0:20:26.119 --> 0:20:28.200 They're not going to be the first one of that market. 0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:32.520 And even the kind of novelty of the robotaxi we're 0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:37.760 seeing in China bid giving away, it's basically equivalent of 0:20:37.960 --> 0:20:41.760 Tesla FSD, the so called full self driving system for 0:20:41.760 --> 0:20:45.479 free right, Like, it's not clear that these technologies that 0:20:45.600 --> 0:20:47.679 he has said are going to be worth you know, 0:20:47.800 --> 0:20:51.320 thirty trillion dollars or something crazy, are actually going to 0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:52.919 be worth that that they're going to be worth that 0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:56.000 to consumers. It isn't working out that way for the 0:20:56.000 --> 0:20:59.000 companies that are already in these markets. 0:20:59.280 --> 0:21:02.440 Okay, we're gonna wrap it up there with you, Craig. 0:21:02.920 --> 0:21:05.000 I would just say a couple of final thoughts. One is, 0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:07.439 as my son has often pointed out to us, we 0:21:07.520 --> 0:21:10.160 are a contrarian indicator here. So every time we talk 0:21:10.200 --> 0:21:13.720 about the stock collapsing in a big way, it immediately rebounds. 0:21:13.720 --> 0:21:16.880